A few years ago RAND put out a report Overextending and Unbalancing Russia.
This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stress—overextend and unbalance— Russia’s economy and armed forces and the regime’s political standing at home
and abroad.
One of the things recommended was exploiting Russia’s “greatest point of external vulnerability” by “providing lethal aid to Ukraine.” (Only someone as paranoid as Putin, of course, could see any hostility in this).
Well, they did it and it’s time for a new RAND report – Avoiding a Long War.
To save you the bother of reading this trivial effort, I will summarize – they start with the usual posturing – “morally repugnant Russian invasion”, “international community”, “illegitimate and illegal”, “aggression”, “humanitarian reasons”, “international norms.” Then on to how Russia is losing – “Russia’s conventional capabilities have been decimated in Ukraine”, “the weakened state of Russia’s conventional military”, “It will take years, perhaps even decades, for the Russian military and economy to recover from the damage already incurred.”
But, as you wade on, you begin to suspect that the authors aren’t as triumphant after all – perhaps victory is not quite so close “given the slowing pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensives in December 2022, restoring the pre-February 2022 line of control—let alone the pre-2014 territorial status quo—will take months and perhaps years to achieve” or even so certain “Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022.” The authors spend some space explaining what a long war is not to America’s advantage.
So, RAND, they followed your advice but things aren’t going very well. Time to try and get out of it.
Since avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.
Here are their suggestions assuming something can be negotiated between Russia and Ukraine. After more poli-sci-ese about how wars end, they say the US and its allies should send more weapons but with a precise description and schedule, give a firm security commitment to Ukraine and ease off on sanctions against Russia. In other words, more of the same.
But, to my surprise, there actually is something different – neutrality for Ukraine. The authors realize that that is something Moscow will insist on. Washington and its minions will have to concede this. Or will they?
A U.S. and allied commitment to Ukraine’s neutrality would create a major additional hurdle—a change in Western policy or even law depending on the nature of the commitment—to Ukraine joining NATO in the future.
(A commitment to neutrality would be an a major additional hurdle to Ukraine joining NATO in the future!!?? Do these people even read what they’ve written or do they mean that Ukrainian neutrality as guaranteed by NATO will be another Minsk deception? And what makes the authors think Russia would ever trust these people again?)
The paper suffers from the usual self-delusion that NATO is tremendously powerful, that the war is confined to Ukraine, that Russia is losing and desperate for a Western-brokered settlement, that Russia desperately wants sanctions lifted. (Amusingly the authors rule out total victory by saying they don’t think Ukraine can do it but they never entertain the possibility that Russia could).
So, to summarize – Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing but it may take so long for Ukraine to win that Russia might win instead and we don’t want a long war anyway so we’ll support a negotiation which we will assist by doing more of the same stuff that didn’t work the last time but offer Ukraine neutrality but we probably don’t mean it. This is not defeat – oh no! – because “Russia has already been weakened dramatically.” Got it? Yay! Props all round!
Don’t bother reading the thing – the only interesting bit is the very tiny step towards accepting the failure of the proxy war in Ukraine that RAND helped start and a trial balloon for the cover story (Russia won but it cost it so much it that we really won).
Where is the face saving NATO position? Facts on the ground save no face….so… some sort of economic sanctions and a “hard agreement” with RU?
It doesn’t seem very good odds that NATO will allow Poland to enter the fray… The UKR situation with NATO defies logic… the longer the conflict goes, the worse for NATO, no?
Herding cats such as Belarus…or Turkey….. or meow… Poland.. how long does that go on until a “mistake” occurs and the war expands to the international waters and the air theater includes all the EU…as well as strikes within Russia?
Where are the diplomats?
Fired.
Ask Mac Kinsey Consulting © for further notices.
“Where are the Diplomats ”
Exceptionalists don’t do diplomacy.
Haven’t you noticed?
They do gunboat diplomacy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gunboat_diplomacy
Washington’s War – Narrative Collapse. Desperately Seeking Exit Strategies – with Honour.
Rand to the rescue.
https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-war-part-viii-narrative
“Don’t bother reading the thing – the only interesting bit is the very tiny step towards accepting the failure of the proxy war in Ukraine that RAND helped start and a trial balloon for the cover story (Russia won but it cost it so much it that we really won).”
I read it. 3 grains of truth you’d have to search a beach to find. And, as you’ve said, Larry THEY only release those tiny grains because they were ALLOWED to (by State, WH, CIA). But I’m seeing a little more, a few grains here and there. I suspect they come out as the lights go off in more aggressive fashion across Ukraine, more and more to the West. It’s hilarious in its tragedy to see CBS, CNN or MSNBC reporters standing in Kiev, in utter darkness, trying to convince me of the strides forward being made by Ukraine’s efforts.
Good stuff, Larry.
This Shelley poem seems germane to the status of the vanishing collective west and their lying, bloviating, and tired narrative.
“…Round the decay
Of that colossal Wreck, boundless and bare
The lone and level sands stretch far away.”
https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/46565/ozymandias
Ever see a sand castle collapse from the trickle of a ‘few grains’ of sand?
Call the Italians. They managed to shore up the leaning tower of Pisa.
It reminds me of watching Downton Abbey during the WWI part: you see the repeated theme that war makes all the bull$h!t wash away and demonstrates what is important. Transition from a fictional narrative to one which is evidenced based will hurt and require slow steps. I wonder myself how long ago Russia looked at the hypothecated world of outsourcing, free trade, globalization and deindustrialization and noted that the puppet masters of the west have gambled that they can roll with a completely fabricated reality. Is that when Russia decided their strength can only be realized if that fake reality is shattered and the Russian trump card of hard resources and hard military strength will pay off?
The tiring part is unlike poker, you can’t just call and show your cards. The Wizard behind the curtain is going to roll out recursive slow retreats, walking back the fabricated reality only as much as is forced. With each capitulation on a false narrative, the spin masters will look around, see if that truth is “enough” hoping to only reveal as much truth as is absolutely necessary.
Thanks for the Police and this simple but memorable song:
https://youtu.be/jcXXhknpO5c
your finance point is interesting and under appreciated in the west. currently the west lack sufficient if much of any unencumbered assets with which to keep the money growth going upward without inflation roaring for as far as the eye can see. there only way to slow it down is to destroy demand…aka austerity or in plain english widespread impoverishment which is the plan underway…but how long before society itself says no more?
russia represents for the western elite vampires a continent size basket of unencumbered assets with which more money growth can be created.
To your comment REDOAK
Society in the West no longer matters in so far as their having any real ability or power to slow the Titanic Ponzi racket down and avoid the total economic collapse iceberg. The captain(s) have only two choices 1) default on the totally unserviceable debt mountain which they will not do 2) hyperinflate the debt away which they will do because then they can continue with the ruse that inflation / hyperinflation is due to market forces beyond their control. Either way America and Western societies locked into the US dollar scam are going to crash and burn big-time.
You also make a great point re ‘Russia represents for the western elite vampires a continent size basket of unencumbered assets with which more money growth can be created’.
That is why the Western elites put Russia in untenable position vis-à-vis publicly announcing the world that they planned to take Ukraine into EU and NATO (which meant placing missile batteries on the border with Russia).
In their desperation they hoped that with lots of funding and weapons, Ukraine would put up a great fight sufficient enough to have people in Russia depose Putin and then they could have walked in like 1990 and set up an even more pernicious ‘Shock Therapy’ free market regime – and then with all those massive resources being able to be sucked out of Russia at extraction cost only, leaving nothing for the Russian people except a few measly billion dollars here and there in order to ensure compliance of another bunch of treacherous traitorous Russian oligarchs to head up the newly minted privatized corporations which would have been owned by the same old gang.
Jeffrey Sachs might well have been there again to stick his snout into the trough and lead the Shock Therapy financial storm troopers in, with well-scripted PR blurps like, “Now we know what went wrong last time. The program was not given enough time to succeed before Putin and his gang derailed it. This time we know exactly what to do to get it right so the Russian economy can be restored. But it will take some time and there will unfortunately have to be some years of pain before this can be turned around”.
Fortunately the game is over at last. Ukraine and its Western owners cannot and will not win.
Russia and China and the BRICS are on the rise and nothing, absent a war so devastating it will destroy the lot, can change that now.
I think it is a bit simpler than that. The West doesn’t need Russia’s resources to create more money growth for (((them))), that’s maybe secondary. It needs Russia’s resources because of resource depletion. The world is running low. EROEI for oil, the resource underpinning modern civilization and allowing a population of the current size, is decreasing fast.
The approach of the Western elites is two fold: demolish demand, increase supply. Demand destruction by a combination of genocide (covid and the vax are obviously both bioweapons), White on White warfare, and White replacement, on both a cultural and a racial level. Modern civilization was built by Whites and likely cannot be maintained as it is without them. Then throw in the global warming psyop for good measure.
Increase supply, of course, by theft.
The alternative of restoring a sound economy, polity and society in the West, and trading for resources needed with partners you respect, does not seem to occur to anyone.
For more read, https://www.thepostil.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/A-Defense-Concept-for-Ukraine-Posen-1994.pdf
Downton Abbey is complete BS fabricated by Julian Fellowes
You may as well look at The Waltons for historical perspective
I liked the Waltons. That and Little House on the Prairie.
Mostly because wokedom hated them. 😉
Thanks to you Larry and all the others I rely on for making short work of all their horse manure. There’s no uncertainty left over what side will be dictating the terms of surrender.
Thanks to you Larry and all the others I rely on for making short work of all their horse manure. There’s no uncertainty left over what side will be dictating the terms of surrender.
The only way for NATO to seriously attempt to change the balance of power in Ukraine is attempt to seriously escalate. Without serious escalation Russia will continue to grind away and endlessly destroy Ukrainian manpower and western equipment.
Declare victory and leave the Ukies to the same fate as the South Vietnamese. Even if through some miracle NATO more heavily intervened and kicked Russia out of Ukraine, then what? You have a seriously pissed off Russia and the war isn’t necessarily over.
Of all the wars and proxy wars of the last century, this had to be the most idiotic, most destructive, and least well thought out. Our Ivy League masters are idiots.
Putin should not agree to nothing, that train has left. He needs to reunite whole Ukraine, EU will be broken economically, then global south will stand behind Russia. I am sick and tired of US running around the world to create new wars to keep military complex. It is time to nationalize that beast, cut all federal agencies by 50% especially FBI and CIA.
Mas hartos estamos los extrangeros!
That’s a double negative. Probably because it’s well deserved.
“The paper suffers from the usual self-delusion…”
Why would we think that RAND is somehow able to escape the woke-leftist mind virus that has come to infect the universities from which they recruit their analysts? This is the same mindset that is incapable of critical thought and certainly anything resembling self reflection. It is the same mindset that believes in the global warming religion, Big Pharma experimental “vaccines”, and can’t even define what is a woman.
I’m afraid what we now have in this country is the blind leading the blind. All I see are politicians and corporations going glassy-eyed following woke dictates and characterizing anyone who opposes their nonsense as some form of racist.
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I’d say this looks like a stealth takeover of our country by forces that wish to see us rendered so incapable of critical thinking that we will accept – even desire – Big Brother.
“Within the next generation I believe that the world’s rulers will discover that infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis are more efficient, as instruments of government, than clubs and prisons, and that the lust for power can be just as completely satisfied by suggesting people into loving their servitude as by flogging and kicking them into obedience.”
Aldous Huxley (from a letter he wrote to George Orwell about 1984) Brave New World . HarperCollins. Kindle Edition.
“is somehow able to escape the woke-leftist mind virus ”
It makes no sense.
Everything that you don’t like, cannot be produce because of “woke-leftist mind virus”.
You must face it: they are just another flavor of what you are.
” and characterizing anyone who opposes their nonsense as some form of racist. ”
You don’t do exactly that? But instead of calling them “some form or racist”, you call them “some form of woke-leftist”.
(It is a rhetoric question, just in case).
“It makes no sense.”
I’m certainly not the first (or only) person to identify the fundamental logical/factual errors in woke/leftist ideology. The fact that this ideology is now permeating our universities and culture is inarguable. The Big Lie of Covid “vaccines” is also inarguable, as is the religious nature of the climate alarm movement, “gender theory” that ignores basic biology, etc. So it makes perfect sense that the same educational system that indoctrinates people into believing this garbage – which is non-factual and irrational, thus incapable of withstanding to critical thinking – is negatively influencing graduates who enter into positions where they must be able to think critically to properly analyze situations. They’re minds are not capable of it, thus they can only arrive at contradictory and irrational conclusions.
What, exactly, do you think Huxley was talking about when he warned of impending “infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis”?
This may seem a frivolous reply, but I blame JK Rowling and Dick Cheney. Cheney fixing the destruction of airplanes and 3 buildings in NYC that hid secrets no one wanted to see daylight.
Dick Cheney created a fantasy that “shall not be named” by those of us that can see the buildings came down just like the Stadiums and casinos via controlled demolition. Can’t even discuss it today but wasn’t it treason?
And then JK Rowling comes right behind it with one of the great fantasies of all time. That weirdest part is that people believe the fantasy of JK, but don’t believe their lying eyes about the destruction of the 3 towers by people authorized by the US on the ground. Not the saudi jokes they allowed to learn only how to fly. C’mon.
Under the elder Bush, the neocons were considered “crazies”, and kept from positions of power. Under Clinton, they became an alternative policy group, backed by the media and based in think tanks. Under the younger Bush, they took over the show. Under Obama, alternative points of view were purged from the universities and the media.
I can think of one group, quite small by US standards, which was powerful enough, ruthless enough and wealthy enough to carry this out. But if we name them, they’ll come after us. So, right you are, all together now, it’s the wokes, it’s the wokes, it’s the wokes.
Juan, Valdez,
Rand exists and is funded by the MIC to exist for one reason – to increase funds to the MIC (and darn good at its purpose). It has nothing to do with woke shit – its just standard run of the mill lobbying think tank revolving door crony capitalism, corruption.
“It has nothing to do with woke shit”
This comment proves I’m right. You can’t even understand the argument.
So, I guess RAND gets its analysts from some other university system than ours, right?
The whole of western governments, including our own, along with our military and corporations, are infested with woke nonsense.
Ever seen our Assistant Secretary for Health?
I’ll ask you the same question I posed to the other reply:
What, exactly, do you think Huxley was talking about when he warned of impending “infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis”?
What, exactly, do you think Huxley was talking about when he warned of impending “infant conditioning and narco-hypnosis”?
Quite possibly the flooding of food with oestrogens and the tempering of attitudes with flouride compounds in water which have profound effects on the pineal gland, so much so that the diseased and atrophied residues of present ones are presumed normal.
I don’t know when oestrogens began to flood the diets of other countries but in the UK it was in ’47, girls born after that had ever shorter timespans between actually being girls and becoming women, only their mothers noticed and mourned the loss of a period of companionship that they had shared with their own mothers, all but forgotten now. I’m not sure the ever growing gender confusion is more than an unintended consequence, but who knows?
“suffers from the usual self-delusion…”
DING DING DING
The whole Western response is steeped in arrogance, assumed birthright supremacy, and delusional infantile omnipotence.
But so is the whole woke attitude to life … far removed from the banal business of keeping your community going and the material vicissitudes of staying alive.
The reason they’re so emotional about racism and inequality is because deep-down they think they’re too far above the fray ever to be subjected to the chaos.
If I were a conspiracy theorist, I’d say this looks like a stealth takeover of our country
Count me in 😉
Why would Russia ever trust the West again, on anything?
Why would Russia ever trust the West again, on anything?
Rand deserves the back of their hand, along with the rest of the western warmongering warlocks and witches.
They’ve all been cruisin’ for a bruisin’ longer than I can remember.
Whatever agreements Ru makes with the West in future should be notarized by Mr. Sarmat and witnessed by a dozen of his relatives.
Doverai no proverai? That little proverb has come and gone. Even another Reagan won’t be able to resurrect it and call it as his own.
The first link doesn’t work. The correct title for that Rand study is “Extending Russia. Competing From Advantageous Ground.” It’s a 275 page report, but just reading the table of contents and perusing the section about providing Ukraine with lethal weapons is worthwhile.
Extending Russia by Extending NATO into Russia’s Vestibule.
There, fixed it.
Its now obvious that Ukraine will only be made right when Russia takes the whole thing.
The situation of the last 30 years – Ukraine strategically, politically and culturally divided among Russia, the EU and particularly the USA – has led to weak, corrupt and unaccountable institutions.
This has allowed opportunists and parasites of all kinds to flourish, from fringe neo-nazis, to the likes Kolomoisky and Hunter Biden – all of whom have sucked the national wealth, divided the population, and have pulled Ukraine in 100 different directions. This present military conflict is the apotheosis of this.
Ukraine will never flourish as a NATO/US satrapy. The above problems will only be magnified.
When Russia can fully take over, stability will be achieved, minds will be focused, and Ukrainian government will finally be accountable. Russia and Putin will demand it, if not for altruistic brother-slave concern, then if nothing else than to show the world the success of their project.
BRICS money will come flooding in to invest and rebuild.
With as mouthy and threatening the Zelensky government is with telling Russia how the war will never end, how they will always fight, that Russian soil will never be safe, wanting nuclear weapons, wanting…wanting…wanting. It is a fairly safe bet that Russian leaders see all of these Ukrainian threats as reason to completely annihilate Ukraine and remove the military and neo-nazi factions. All that is likely to remain of Ukraine is the Kiev oblast and that will be only as a token so the Ukrainian culture will still have a place to call home.
With the amount of death caused by Zelensky, the war crimes caused by Zelensky and much more, only the most foolish of Ukrainians will want to be a part of Ukraine and will be glad to have Russia protecting them.
A Ukraine as a threat to the world can not be permitted to exist again. They will be left with only a small oblast for their culture and language.
Not only for the reasons you did mention. Look how much western money gets sucked into Ukraine just to prevent the collapse of the state. It’s a real burden to the west and therefore is good for Russia’s strategy. BTW, I don’t think the west will ever get any money back.
I also think it will be wise to have that buffer-zone and that burden for the west to exist for as long as possible. Accepting the resource-rich territories as new Russian oblasts was already a foreseeable but brilliant move. Rebuilding them with the money the Russian state is hammering out from their exports is very good too. The west is practically paying for that now.
They’re doing huge water projects to the Donbas, since their reunification with Russia, 600,000,0000 gallons a day, fresh, clean water. The Donbas will be standing in tall cotton in all sorts of ways from now on. It was a cinch they would have had no such progress under Kiev, ever.
That’s not fair. Crimea under UA control did manage to build a very nice exclusive Hotel and Spa where Kolomoisky and friends would have a very nice time counting IMF money.
The US MalAdministration seems to be happy to send freshly-printed Bidenbucks to the Ukraine, but somehow is beginning to slow-walk delivery of more than token amounts of physical weaponry. Maybe the idea is to encourage the Ukrainians to show Zelensky the door and directly request Russia for negotiations. The US would have to respect a Ukrainian request for negotiations.
What would Russia demand in negotiations about Rump Ukraine? Guaranteed neutrality, with a (UN?) peace-keeping force to ensure that NATO stayed out. The logical choice for that peace-keeping force would be China, since Russia & NATO will never trust each other. And China has the resources to invest in redeveloping Rump Ukraine. The fun part would be the EuroScum suddenly realizing that, because of their own idiocy, they then have the Chinese military on their doorstep.
I fully agree with what you said, I also think that is how it is going to happen. Can’t wait to see the faces of Euro leaders when the Chinese military are invited to be stationed just miles from their borders to guard Chinese investments in Ukraine.
Ukraine will be memory holed when the time comes. MSM will just forget about it and move on to the next big thing. Probably Iran. It will suddenly disappear from the agenda just like all the other times. No problem!
It makes you wonder if the Rand people borrowed Hunter’s crack pipe before writing the report.
He has so many, he’d never miss it.
“Damn Russian agents stole my crack pipe again! Dad, help!!!!”
Hunter: “Dad! Those Russian agents keep stealing my crack pipes. There’s something afoot here. I’m afraid their agents will use my crack-laced DNA to knock up a whole bunch of crack whores, then bankrupt you, oops I mean me, by suing for child and clinic support in a year.”
Dad: “That’s your story, son. You stick with it. I’ll work the MSM angle. Meanwhile, try to get a life. I can still get you a no-show union job in a Scranton coal mine as a nat gas methane inspector. Think about it.”
Hunter: Dad, you seen my crack pipe? That’s the eighth one I’ve lost this month. Give a guy a helping hand, will ya’?
Dad: Look in that banker’s box next to the ‘vette in the garage son, the one marked ‘top secret’. Pretty sure I saw some ashes in there. Could’ve been from that pipe.
When reading most any Rand report one must keep in mind they are reading the future. Rand has almost always made reports that indicated what the MIC and “deep state” have in mind and are planning. Their reports are future projections of what we will experience.
As a kid, some 55 years ago, I read the newspaper every day, and from time to time there would be an article from Rand. I remember the future predictions of airline hijackers to Cuba and then it happened. I remember the projections about terrorists in Europe (remember Germany terrorists?), terrorists in the middle east, increases in automobile fuel cost, recessions, wars in the middle east, American suffering terrorist attacks, drug cartels and probably more than I can think of at the moment.
Rand tells us the plans for the future…not suggestions or concepts or speculations.
An excellent point, of course, and this thing is just one of several balloons out there suggesting that they’re trying to get out of the mess. But the inbuilt arrogance is still there — it’s not going to be the USA or NATO setting the conditions.
And, by the way, despite the cliches, not all wars end in negotiations. Can you see any negotiations in this picture?
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.EjWHZ1HuJ0bZMsEkmhoBzQHaHq%26pid%3DApi&f=1&ipt=5516cd4dc5fe29d6b561780b0707a1148c0ae857f8c79fef9113d1f9786c0c66&ipo=images
No sir…there were no negotiations at all prior to or on the deck of the Missouri. Nor do I see any negotiations in the future for Ukraine.
Just like in Afghanistan you have the watches and we have the time.
Rodina Mat is playing the long game.
The insane Satanic west is just bat guano enough to play the nuke card after Russia foiled all traps and snares?
Probably a false flag.
The Rand Corp. article is laughable. Russia sees no basis for negotiating with “The Empire of Lies” confirmed by Merkle and other highly placed individuals publicly admitting that the Minsk agreement was a sham with the West (i.e. the US) simply using it as a way to buy time to arm up Ukraine. The US’ CIA engineered a coup in Ukraine in 2014, admitted to by Deep State operative Victoria Nuland. Ensuring a pro-western proxy government that would agree to Ukraine arming up, so as to fully conquer eastern Ukraine, a necessary step to Ukraine’s NATO membership. Which would put NATO’s nuclear arsenal upon Russia’s doorstep. Less than a 13 minute flight time from Moscow. Allowing the seizure of Crimea, cutting off Russia from its sole warm water port. All designed to force out Putin and force Russia’s compliance with the dominance of the West’s Liberal Hegemony. Next stop, Beijing.
The idea of overextending and weakening Russia is an old one.
See 1993: The Barry R. Posen Plan for War on Russia via Zombie State Ukraine at The Postil.
Also at The Postil is an excerpt from Jacques Baud’s new bookexcerpt from Jacques Baud’s new book Operation Z: The Hidden Truth about the War in Ukraine.
George Soros was expounding a similar line in 1993.
Toward a New World Order: The Future of NATO, Open Society Foundations, November 1, 1993
Thanks. The Posen link is an especially good primer on “how we got here”. Strongly recommended.
Russia is lucky that the people who wrote the plan for America’s Ukraine Project aren’t here today to run it. The current lot isn’t up to the mark.
“The current party does not correspond to reality.”
Why? What is the luck of Russia, which is already to blame for not dying?
After reading this deeply cynical text, I got the impression that all subsequent events up to today fit into the outlined plan.
To be honest, I am so tired of the hate speech pouring from all sides – anyone can be confused.
It’s only love that happens without reciprocity, and hatred almost always causes reciprocal feelings. It is very difficult to keep within the bounds of common sense.
I think you misunderstood my post.
War & conquest has ever been about one set of elites coveting the assets of another set of elites. As it turns out, Russia has a LOT that the Western elites have always wanted. Russia corresponds to Mackinder’s Heartland. That makes it Target #1 for as long as the West lasts.
Russia is lucky because while the people who wrote the plan for Russia’s conquest back in the early 1990s were smart, the ones who inherited the plan and are now trying to execute it are not very smart. That gives Russia a better chance to outwit them. The downside of the West’s stupidity is that they may do something, well… stupid.
Another piece of good luck is that China is an order of magnitude more powerful now than 3 decades ago. Something the planners didn’t see 30 yrs ago. For as long as their Alliance holds, the West remains vulnerable to a war on two disparate fronts – economic/financial and military. If Russia and China can coordinate the two fronts, they are simply unbeatable.
It seems to me, the method to be used by the U.S. to back out of their support of the Zelensky Nazi Mafia will be with the fall of Biden as U.S. President. The U.S. will continue to support Ukraine but some time in the first half of this year the politicians will do an Amendment 25 on Biden to get him out. Once that has happened, the U.S. failed involvement in Ukraine, and the U.S. economic failure will be blamed on Biden and a few military elites. I believe that is why we see such a heavy push with the classified documents found in his home, and where ever else.
The main stream media are no longer hiding truths about Biden, no longer covering for him or making excuses for his mental murmurings. Biden is on the path to impeachment or an Amendment 25 action…probably Amendment 25.
“Russia won but it cost it so much it that we really won”
Russian National Debt 19.99% of GDP ($ 1,390 per citizen)
United States National Debt 114.04% of GDP ( $ 64,814 per citizen)
Source: https://worlddebtclocks.com
Who’s Zoomin’ Whom?
I don’t know why, but it remembers me the recent economic crisis in Greece when the game theory doctor Varoufakis went “negotiating” with the EU , the IMF and the Word bank. That thing ended up with a book , a film and a title : Adults in a room. There was only one adult in this story in my view.
“Same players , play again ? ” Only one adult in the room right now ..
Seems to be a pretty simple equation to me: Russia is fighting this war by pouring its firepower downrange, while Ukraine is attempting to fight this war by pouring its manpower into the front lines.
The fundamental difference is obvious: Russian artillery shells are a renewable resource, whereas Ukraine will eventually run out of men to feed into the meatgrinder.
Hence the near-year-long song and dance that Russia is about to run out of ammo. Any day now. Just you wait and see. Juuuuuust about to happen.
Hence the ever-more-shrill call from Zelensky for more and more and more equipment, because the only alternative to that foreign stuff is to start feeding boys and old men into the grinder.
He can’t get that equipment, not in the quantity that he needs. Scores of tanks, when he needs hundreds, if not thousands. Scores of artillery, scores of counter-battery radars. Scores of HIMARS. But he needs hundreds of all of those, if not more.
The West bet the farm on two things:
1) The economic sanctions will bring Russia’s economy to its knees
2) The Russian stockpile of weapons and ammo is as anemic as theirs, and the Russian military industrial capacity was as hollowed out as their own.
They were wrong on both counts. Disastrously wrong. They should just declare victory now and let Putin dictate the peace.
Because it either happens now, or it happens later. And the longer they wait the more his dictates will harden.
We are run by fools and knaves, and the bigger the fool the more knavish they are.
Russian dictates will remain the same now and in the future: the security of the Russian Federation from Nato encroachment and threats/schemes. How that dictate will manifest itself in only known to Vladimir Vladimirovich and his national security team. I wouldn’t be surprised tho’ if it includes the repayment of Russia’s stolen reserves and contributions towards the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Add to that “Russia didn’t invade Polandistan, so we won!”
Add to that “Russia didn’t invade Polandistan, so we won!”
That one’s a winner.
“We stopped ’em at the Rubicon! Hurrah for us! We won. We won! LOL
It’s lucky that thanks to Larry, I only read the ominous Rand report in excerpts, even so, I was almost slapped in the face by the feeling of Deja Vu, who spent most of my life behind the Iron Curtain ! I got used to this kind of gibberish in the communist press of the 1960s, I really thought about whether the former Eastern European communist propaganda press are still themselves or only their bloodlines are cultivating this popular stupidity overseas now ? Although this may be the end product of a tribal mindset that applies the same brainwashing everywhere on the planet, only I am an old fox for that ! However, I would like to note that at that time everyone thought this was a blatant lie, but we knew it and smiled in complicity, but for some reason I have the feeling that people here overseas are somehow more susceptible to lies than us the always suspicious Eastern Europeans !
I think Attila, and please correct me if I am wrong, that in the communist countries everybody knew that the media was controlled and shaped. The govt made no secret of it — Art 6 in the USSR constitution on “the leading and guiding role of the CPSU” for example. So you all learned to read between the lines, notice what was not said and so on. You read Pravda and the others with a critical eye.
In the West, alas, there are still plenty of people who think the media is”free”, believe what they see and are surprising resistant to any counter view. Trust in the media is reducing but rather slowly. Most of my neighbors seem to believe pretty much what they’re told.
Care to comment?
I got used to this kind of gibberish in the communist press of the 1960s. Are their bloodlines cultivating this popular stupidity overseas now?
Of course they are. The sad part is that you had decades to learn to ‘read between the lines’ and we’ve just barely begun.
https://www.thepostil.com/1993-the-barry-r-posen-plan-for-war-on-russia-via-zombie-state-ukraine/?fbclid=IwAR0MzcBw_eLZZrZTuheEVuHQGRMDGi0X23Gx-Mzgk8xUZYuGdgHpm8b6APg
I saw this today, in The Postil Magazine. It is amazing. It dates back to 1994 !!! Definitely worth sharing.
The full-blown War Plan for a zombie Ukraine.
It refers to a report by Barry R. Posen (Rand, CFR, MIT, Woodrow Wilson Foundation).
Selection by Mendelssohn Moses.
I’m sorry, can’t read it. I don’t have the stomach for it. Madmen are running the show, that’s all I need to know.
I’m not sure there are any conditions of “neutrality” that would even be possible for Russia to trust at this point. Unfortunately, conditions on the ground have not yet reached the point for Ukraine where negotiations would be possible that are not simply hand waving.
Any negotiations would probably have to be preceeded by political change inside Ukraine demanded by grass roots popular uprising powerful enough to overcome the SBU’s grip.
What we dont know is if Russias desire for peace outweighs it’s desire for a sustainable and real resolution
I don’t doubt that Russia’s primary desire is the settle this issue once and for all to its satisfaction. They’re mobilised now,and nothing but defeat will stop them from pushing on to achieve their war aims, whatever they minimally may be. Anything else would be storing up problems for the future.
At this point the only “neutrality” for whatever left of Ukistan (if anything) Russia will allow is:
– No access to the sea
– “government” will be nominated or disbanded at any time by Moscow
– Russian military bases will be all over that Satanic sewage of a country (a la Germany)
– no army allowed, no weapons heavier than knife
– some police, to be nominated and filtered by Moscow
– all neo-nazis will be caught and, if not executed for war crimes, sent to the harshest prisons in Siberia to help the Russian economy by mining coal and cutting trees for the rest of their Satanic lowlives
– no foreign agreements or foreign relations to be allowed unless approved by Moscow
– step left, step right, we shoot. Is that clear?
Next question.
…but, but, RAND said…
Who the f&%k is “RAND”?! Oh that scum. These digenerates can go and “rand” themselves in their own orifice of choice.
Raand in India means prostitute
A very appropriate name for this type of outfit! 🙂
These people are so useless that they don’t even know basic math, when they say that it can take years for Ukraine to achieve victory, they can’t do a basic calculation of daily manpower losses, at this rate in a few months Ukraine will run out of man .
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia indeed. I have to laugh. Remind me again just who is being, has been, overextended and unbalanced?
Another point, perhaps off topic, but interesting to consider in a fanciful sort of way, is that Europe has sent all its weapons, or at least a goodly portion of them, either to Ukraine where they have been destroyed, or to Poland. Poland has a centuries long history of hostility to Russia, but nothing on that front can be realistically considered at this time. Besides Belarus stands in the way.
Poland also has a centuries long history of hostility to Germany, and right now Germany is disarmed, demoralised and in disarray. What if instead of looking east, Poland were to look west? Nothing and no one stands in the way there. And they do reckon the Germans owe them rather a lot of money.
Not going to happen, of course. Of course.
Unfortunately I already read the Rand report. There’s a chunk of time wasted.
Even more unfortunately, I followed the link to “paranoid Putin.” What in hades is wrong with those people?!?!?
I hate to think how many more people will die while they try to manufacture a “success story” out of this shit storm they’ve created.
Here is another perspective on V. Putin. It is not right on the point of the main blog entry. It is certainly related to it with the Western world swirling in confusion.
Mr. Putin and his group have been widely vilified in the West in an effort to regime change Russia. They will not be given credit by most of the Western world. There is no room for credit within the propaganda bubble. Stepping outside the bubble, recall some of the events. Mr. Putin and his group have guided there country out of the misery and despair of the 1990s. They have led it to prosperity and social rebirth. Few others have this sort of credential.
Further, Mr. Putin and Russia have been attacked since the 1990s in the form of sanctions and proxy warfare. Others would have withered. Mr. Putin’s response has been to work diligently solving internal problems, to engage the patriotism and support of the Russian people, and to secure agreements in the East that appear to be changing the world.
Still further, Mr. Putin and his group have made war in an unusual and unexpected way, called a special military operation. Its implications inside and outside Ukraine are still being shaped and are profound.
I don’t do idolatry or hero worship. I do recognize something usual and like others, reflect on its meaning. Mr. Putin may be the most reviled man on earth. He may also be the most esteemed man on earth. The careful words of an ancient Greek poet come to mind. “Creatures for a day! What is man? What is he not? A dream of a shadow. Is our Mortal being. But when there comes to men a gleam, of splendor given of heaven, then settles on them a light of glory and blessed days.”
Thanks to Messrs. Smith and Johnson. Keep the truth coming.
Russia is building another 1.5 million in total troops. Factories kicking out all they need to fight. Economy is doing fine. Bonus entire dollar system is now threatened with BRICS, OPEC plus and other countries outside the west. Hint this is where the real economic growth is in this century.
Do you know who globalization helps? The wealthy. Here Bob. You are now competing against that guy in India sitting barefooted in a mud hut we ran a WIFI line into. All of you are going to be competing for the glory of working hard enough to feed yourself until we decide which one of your daughters we are taking to Pedo Island. We sanction Russia. The oligarch’s money has to stay in Russia. They build the mansion in Russia. The carpenter gets work. Their kids want expensive jeans which have to made in Russia. Russia has everything they need. What if they stayed home, and kept all their toys for themselves? We are the spoiled bitches in the USA which trade worthless devaluating dollars for raw goods that are rare. Globalization serves to enslave the working people. The best favor we could ever do to Russia is sanction and isolate them forever. And the results? Inflation is here to stay in the USA. Due to sanctions we are moving production back here. Since we don’t have kids (hard trick for kids you taught to lop their dicks off) we are short people. And hence wage pressure. And hence higher prices. And sanctions take away the carrot to the ruling class in every country to fuck their own country over for the payoffs from the Bill Gates. Russia is saving us. From their protection of the church. From their making sexual perversion and grooming children illegal. I joined the US Army to kill a commie for mommy. And now, God Help me, Russia appears to be the beacon of hope in the world.
For me this boils down to a race to see what happens first. Will it be the total defeat of the Ukrainazis in Kiev or that final bite that makes War Mother Victoria Nuland explode all over her dining room walls? Of course, if gluttony wins, the Ukies automatically lose when their biggest (!) champion expires in this hideous fashion.
“Continued conflict also leaves open the possibility that Russia will reverse Ukrainian battlefield gains made in fall 2022.”
Too bad the Rand novella has been reduced to flummery. Russia has already reversed Ukrainian battlefield gains. It has left a considerable amount of farmland untouched waiting for slightly better weather rather like, well, now. Numerous tow trucks and wreckers will flourish with danger pay for removing them to the junkyard of history through the mine fields sown with death for the people of Ukraine.
I share the opinion of Andrei Martyanov, that political science is fake science and it’s also a fake “degree”. It’s a lightweight “degree” that anyone could achieve unless there were seriously mentally challenged, unlike difficult degrees such as engineering, medicine or pure sciences and mathematics. And these political science morons are the ones who write this bulls&#t in RAND and yet have no advanced knowledge in anything except spreading their biased nonsensical propaganda. They would plunge us into a nuclear war (see their previous publications) until they find out NATO is getting its a$$ kicked and then decide maybe we better get out altogether. Brilliant leadership of the US guys!!!!
Ukraine is running out of warm bodies to feed the meat grinder. The west is running out of steel to send to the front to be turned into smoldering slag.
Now what?
The west seems to be neck deep into sunk-cost fallacy, sending good money after bad finding out the hard way that Russians don’t bluff.
Can Nato find a negotiation the Russians will trust? Doubtful.
Will the crazies in the Pentagon basement finally get their nuclear war? I put that in the “Be Careful What You Wish For” Department.
How the hell do we stop this?
“Will the crazies in the Pentagon basement finally get their nuclear war?”
Well if they do, we’ll know little about it.
The idea that the US wants to escalate their way into a nuclear war is beyond idiotic. Hey, let’s toss some tactical nukes at each other and then gradually work up to the big stuff, shall we?
It doesn’t work that way. The war will last either 10 minutes, or will it go on for the better part of a day,* but either way, it will come as shock to billions that a nuclear war just took place,
But they’ll come to learn of the true meaning of its passing, soon enough, because no matter where you live on this planet, the ozone layer that has been damaged beyond repair, really doesn’t give a f+ck.
* The difference in the times elements? Very simple. Successful first strike vs failed first strike plus multiple strikes and counter-strikes.
What are the odds of a successful first strike? Well, I don’t have access to Pentagon supercomputers that have been working on this problem 24/7 for the last 60 years, but I were to guesstimate, I think it lies somewhere between the Zero Bound and True Zero.
It doesn’t take much to produce a first strike failure these days. For instance, a Congressional study in 2017 I think it was, concluded that a single nuclear airburst 50 to 70 miles above St. Louis would lead to 198 million American dead within one year.
Regardless of the accuracy of the figures, the study considered just one EMP. Come The Exchange, entire continents will be bracketed by EMPs.
Including most assuredly mine. In fact, the only continent that might not receive the EMP treatment is Antarctica, but I’m not even sure about that.
And it is important to remember as well, EMPs represent just one element of comined arms warfare as it applies to the concept of Overkill.
Overkill, another aspect of nuclear war the Pentagon’s supercomputers have working on non-stop for decades, undoubtedly with much greater success. In fact, I for one believe they solved that equation, and quite easily, long, long ago.
The very unpleasant feelings and moods brought about by this war and relieved, in part, by reading Larry’s blog are summed up in this poem:
“Be Angry at the Sun” by Robinson Jeffers
That public men publish falsehoods
Is nothing new. That America must accept
Like the historical republics corruption and empire
Has been known for years.
Be angry at the sun for setting
If these things anger you. Watch the wheel slope and turn,
They are all bound on the wheel, these people, those warriors.
This republic, Europe, Asia.
Observe them gesticulating,
Observe them going down. The gang serves lies, the passionate
Man plays his part; the cold passion for truth
Hunts in no pack.
You are not Catullus, you know,
To lampoon these crude sketches of Caesar. You are far
From Dante’s feet, but even farther from his dirty
Political hatreds.
Let boys want pleasure, and men
Struggle for power, and women perhaps for fame,
And the servile to serve a Leader and the dupes to be duped.
Yours is not theirs.
I remember reading a US Army paper on how a single Russian fire strike mission took out an entire armored column during US/NATO’s first failed attempt at a proxy war in Georgia 2008.
You would have thought Russia’s artillery campaign was a given in any war planning.
The author described in horror, Russia’s ability to inflict damage without heavy reliance on air support. (surprise, surprise, can’t find it now on Google)
The RAND report and other mouthpieces are laying the foundation for a cease fire (ala Korea’s DMZ), to stop the inevitable.
“The only way for NATO to seriously attempt to change the balance of power in Ukraine is attempt to seriously escalate”
NATO doesn’t exist as an independant entity : they’re just an extension of America’s will.
If D.C. shouts “uncle!” Stool-tenberg will stop yapping and solemnly declare : “we have DEFEATED Putin’s empire of evil!!!” and crawl back to his hole.
The funny thing is if America withdraws from this war Ukraine will literally implode. And that promises to be very entertaining : Kiev will be the new Corleone (—-> the Sicilian village with the highest rate of murders in Italy during the 60’s).
“So, to summarize – Ukraine is winning and Russia is losing but it may take so long for Ukraine to win that Russia might win instead and we don’t want a long war anyway so we’ll support a negotiation which we will assist by doing more of the same stuff that didn’t work the last time but offer Ukraine neutrality but we probably don’t mean it.”…
Brilliant hahaha, absofuckinglutely brilliant.!! This is probably the most concisely posted summarisation of the conflict in general, and the ‘Loony Tune’ neo/lib-con nutjobs perception of it in particular, that anyone has come up with thus far..!!
Well done, sir.!!
Why should the RAND corporation inform its enemy about its strategy?
What about when the Ukraine starts sending missiles to Russia? Will the Russians take them all down?
How can Russia solve the issue that the western Ukrainian population is and was extremely hostile to Russia? Even years after world war 2, russians were chasing Ukrainian nationalists that cooperated with the German army.
Look at any point in this situation, it is all complex. Russia also can not afford sending soldiers to war for years. The Russians still accept it, but they also would like to have this war ended as soon as possible.
I’ll try to give some answers.
Everything written in RAND documents is already known to most visitors of this site. I doubt that they are informing enemy about anything.
Ukraine started sending missiles towards Russia some time ago (Belgorod region has been targeted on regular basis). Russians didn’t take them all down.
I think that they will push all Banderites to western parts, and give it to Poland (and some parts to Hungary, and maybe even Romania and Belarus).
After the initial “cavalry charge”, Russians have been focusing on mimizing losses in order to sustain long war. Ukraine has recently started mobilizing people with disabilities. At this attrition rates, they can’t last for years. If/when Poland fully enters the fray, the game will change to something else.
I bothered to read the thing because I wanted to see by myself that it was saying what it was purported that it was saying. People – from all sides – have a tendency to interpret ambiguous things in a way that confirms their biases.
Well, I don’t think that the report can be better summed up than as in the penultimate paragraph of this article. The arrogance and self-delusion necessary to believe that the Russians could fall for it are beyond me.
Who do you think snorts more cocaine or takes more meth-amphetamines – Bankers, Media, Politicians in USA and UK or in Russia and China ?
How far do you think brain chemistry is altered by long term drug abuse in Western societies ?
Who believes Boris Johnson is not a self-indulgent coke-head funded by US slush funds ?
Who believes UK Parliament or US Capitol os not permeated with narcotics ?
Who thinks German Bundestag is not corrupt ?
City of London wants WWIII
https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/escalation-to-world-war-iii-and-the?utm_source=facebook&sd=pf&fbclid=IwAR0J5h3pmlSmPNN8UPN3tId7KOCTlhT8Ta1vQS8lYwctD2EuV13n3SJZoLo
Former French ambassador to US says West close to war with Russia
Alarming statement
https://tass.com/world/1571247
PROVISIONAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
Officially the ukro-Atlanticists went to war against Russia via the Donbass conflict to offer Ukraine a better quality of economic life “European way of life” version 🤔.
After 8 years of accelerated economic collapse against the background of the conflict in the Donbass and 1 year of war against Russia, the price to pay to have more McDonald’s and Gay Pride in the country is not really….. profitable:
Here is a provisional economic assessment for Ukraine, drawn up by Dmitry Medvedev on the occasion of Ursula Van der Layen’s visit to kyiv, knowing that the most catastrophic assessment is the demographic assessment between military losses, regions returning to within Russia and refugees who fled Ukraine (18,000,000 inhabitants compared to 45,000,000 before 2014).
“The kyiv regime, backed by its Western masters, is fighting Russia ‘until victory’, and the economy of this unfortunate territory is rapidly turning into a stinking shell.
Even the countries that promise the Ukrainian regime recovery and eternal European love talk about it openly.
Here is a brief diagnosis of the disease of the Ukrainian economy, based on medical data from Goldman Sachs. some striking figures which characterize the disease.
1. Ukraine has now lost the territories that provided it with about 40% of its national industrial potential and about 15% of its pre-war GDP.
2. It no longer has access to over $12 trillion in mineral reserves. Of which 63% coal deposits and 42% metals.
3. Agriculture is heading full steam ahead into the abyss. First, a sharp drop in the wheat harvest: 19.4 million tons in 2022 compared to 32.5 million in 2021. Maize: 18.4 million tons to 35.1 million Second, land routes through Poland and Romania led to a 2 to 3 multiplication of fresh transport.
4. At the end of 2022, Ukraine’s GDP fell by 35-36%. And its total losses from the collision with Russia reached 830-850 billion dollars. And this despite the fact that in 2021 the country’s GDP was 200 billion dollars
Even their Ministry of Economy had to recognize this record fall as the worst result in the country’s history.
5. Only then the final collapse of industry, hyperinflation, poverty and total unemployment
The country’s national debt will rise from $107 billion to $180 billion – $200 billion – by the end of the year. There is little hope for even a microscopic recovery.
Obviously, Russia will continue to work to achieve the goals of a special military operation.
This means that Ukraine’s GDP could still collapse by 5-10% by the end of this year.
Therefore, the prospect of the complete bankruptcy of the Ukrainian state and its inevitable end is becoming increasingly clear.
Who is to blame? is a rhetorical question.
As the malevolent midwife Ursula von der Layen honestly admitted, the Ukrainian government is paying for its EU and NATO membership with the lives of its citizens.
Let’s not talk about this miserable economy. The kyiv regime is not bothered by the ruin of the country. It continues to waste its territory with exorbitant military expenditure. assuming the West will still give them money. He will not let all the embezzlers, who share Western money, starve.
This year, the Ukrainian budget will have to spend 55 billion dollars with a deficit of 38 billion dollars just for urgent needs.
It is clear that the more support there is, the more the demented clown and other parasites, sick with an open form of kleptomania, will steal. M
PROVISIONAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT
(following)
Only the longer the leaders of the Ukrainian Nazis harass and steal aid from their donors, the closer the final collapse of the economy will come.
After all, they will have to pay for the entire treatment. And the goal of Western beauticians is not to cure the economy of the unfortunate country. The West has a wealth of experience in killing test countries. The West is not the good Dr Aibolit, but Dr Mengele. He’s a sinister doctor-killer. Therefore, Ukraine will have to face the sad fate of those settlements which were once violated in the most evil form and then thrown to die in the rotten dustbin of history.
The sadistic treatment of the Ukrainian economy will be done gradually.
First, the amputation of industry and the agrarian sector. Then will come the paralysis of the economy as a whole. And then will come the organic death of the rest of the country.
Source @medvedev_telegram
The biggest issue is if Russia escalates this- e.g. taking Odessa and/or more provinces of Ukraine, it gives NATO/US a chance to escalate the conflict, which is to no one’s preference.
Europe is disunited – there are peace loving people – escalation now increases the possibility of bringing this war to their lands again… for what?
Yes, there are tanks and jets coming at Russia- but factually, the quantities are wholly inadequate for a NATO offensive in Ukraine. Therefore, it does not qualify as a major threat. Thus, I think it is not enough to justify a Russian offensive into Europe or declaring war.
As opposed to now- continuing the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine by the various meat grinder operations without major escalation. The coalition is crumbling before our eyes.
Given that the government structures in Europe are still comparatively intact- retaining the SMO means that a peaceful transition of government / party is still possible in the countries of Europe. People of Europe can still move around- leave Europe, visit Russia (other means) etc.
On the other hand, if the Russian offensives occur and is viewed as a major escalation (or marketed as so)- it gives the war hawks in NATO to take control of the politics and change the government structures.
This would in turn increase military commitment by NATO and the Russians will be forced to react again – pushing us further into direct conflict.
Not escalating also gives Russia and other countries to work out alternative international solutions to the US-based systems. Most importantly, not escalating preserves lives… peace is maintained for many and peaceful transition of powers is possible.
Of course, if the assessment is such that the Russians do not think NATO will react to the taking of Odessa and/or major offensives, or Ukraine starts having an increased offensive capability, then yes- escalation will happen.
Also, I think the taking of Odessa has a higher signature than the major offensives to take provinces east of the Dnieper. This is because the taking of Odessa by default landlocks Ukraine, links up Transniedstra and puts Russian forces on the border with Moldova- a buffer state with the next NATO state (Romania).
So I don’t think Russia should escalate anything now- just meat grind and allow common sense (alt govts) to prevail in Europe/US + buy time to create alternate international coalitions.
If they have to, local offensives to secure the Donbass and/or provinces east of Dnieper. Don’t take Odessa unless the situation calls for it- e.g. if Moldova starts getting more and more involved and/or Transniedstra starts getting attacked.
(i recall that there was one local incident a few months back in Transniedstra, but havent heard any since then- maybe there are cooler heads)
Much has already been written and many people have published their opinions. In one thing I agree, many people simply want peace, for all people no matter where in the world.
But now that the RF has tackled the problem, in my view against its own will, does it have any choice but to finish the demilitarization and denazification it started? If you look at Ukraine and its recent objective history, you will see that it has not been a state in the classical sense, no matter who has been at the helm since 1990, but rather an oligarch empire, similar to the RF under Yeltsin and the first years under Putin. The only difference is that Putin did not finally but decisively break the power of the oligarchs. For the people in Ukraine it is therefore from several points of view on the one hand sad and on the other hand necessary that RF takes out the hammer and brings the whole thing to an end as quickly as possible. This is probably the greatest fear of the West, which is why a reorientation to the Pacific Asian region. With it connected economy and capital as much as possible from Europe to the USA to resettle. Since the EU is determined by the NATO after the last agreement, probably nothing is valid as “burned” earth leave behind. This can be stopped only by a fast effective “victory” RF in the Ukaine and then the people in EU can create themselves new national governments and bury Brussels and Strasbourg.