Russian has a rather complicated adjective недоговороспособны (nedogovorosposobny) for which there isn’t any good English equivalent. Literally it means something like “not together in speaking to find a way”; the clumsy English word used is not-agreement-capable. The meaning is “you can’t make an agreement with them and, even if you could, they’d break it”.
The Minsk agreements were negotiated between Kiev and the breakaway regions of Lugansk and Donetsk with two variants in 2014 and 2015. In essence they agreed to a ceasefire and the start of negotiations on some form of autonomy for Lugansk and Donetsk inside the borders of Ukraine. The second version had big involvement by France (President Hollande) and Germany (Chancellor Angela Merkel) – they were its guarantors. Russia’s role was to force Lugansk and Donetsk to the table (they would have preferred independence or joining Russia.) The agreements never took effect.
Kiev never pretended to try and then-President Poroshenko has recently admitted that Kiev only saw it as a mechanism to buy time and Donetsk and Lugansk could “hole up in basements“. Western consumers/dupes of their media would only have heard of it in the context of “In Ukraine, we have maintained an effort under Ambassador Kurt Volker to provide the means by which Russia can live up to its commitments under the Minsk Agreements.” More lies – Russia had no commitments in the agreement, the obligations were entirely on the part of Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk. Russia delivered the latter two to the signing table and France and Germany were supposed to deliver the first. Had the agreements been lived up to – had France and Germany pressured Ukraine – Kievans would be cooking their meals in lighted rooms after a hot shower and sleeping in their own beds. Thousands of people would be alive and healthy today.
Putin recently told a group of soldiers’ mothers “In hindsight, we are all smart, of course, but we believed that we would manage to come to terms, and Lugansk and Donetsk would be able to reunify with Ukraine somehow under the agreements – the Minsk agreements… We were sincerely moving towards this.”
What did we just learn the other day from former German Chancellor Angela Merkel?
And the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. She also used this time to get stronger, as you can see today. The Ukraine of 2014/15 is not the Ukraine of today. As you saw in the battle for Debaltseve (railway town in Donbass, Donetsk Oblast, ed.) in early 2015, Putin could easily have overrun them at the time. And I very much doubt that the NATO countries could have done as much then as they do now to help Ukraine.
[Sie hat diese Zeit hat auch genutzt, um stärker zu werden, wie man heute sieht. Die Ukraine von 2014/15 ist nicht die Ukraine von heute. Wie man am Kampf um Debalzewe (Eisenbahnerstadt im Donbass, Oblast Donezk, d. Red.) Anfang 2015 gesehen hat, hätte Putin sie damals leicht überrennen können. Und ich bezweifle sehr, dass die Nato-Staaten damals so viel hätten tun können wie heute, um der Ukraine zu helfen.]
Compare that with what she said at the time – “We are here to implement the Minsk deal, not to call it into question“.
So, Poroshenko was right – it was just a delaying tactic, NATO and Kiev never had any intention of negotiating an arrangement in which Lugansk and Donetsk, inside Ukraine, would enjoy a degree of autonomy and Germany, at least, never intended to push Kiev.
Putin was lied to and fooled.
I have three questions.
- Why would anybody in Russia ever bother negotiating with these people ever again about anything?
- Why would anybody in the rest of the world – China, India, Iran, the Middle East, Africa, South America – ever bother negotiating with these people ever again about anything?
- What possessed her to admit this now? An upwelling of conscience? Arrogance – we’re Number One and always will be and we don’t give a damn what you think? You’d think after the catastrophe that that is hitting Ukraine and Europe because she (and others) ignored diplomacy and negotiation that she’d keep her mouth shut. (Korybko speculates on her motives.)
Недоговороспособны – even when you think you’ve made an agreement, they’re just trying to fool you.
Mad Dog says
I am ashamed of my government.
I am ashamed of the American people
As the World Churns says
One small step for the West. One large dagger to the heart of the UN.
This will not be forgotten by the Global South and others.
motimer snerd says
hey, biden stole it, were tryig to deal with it like civilized people, a little time please…
Democrats continue to steal and Republicans continue to be incredibly stupid. Too stupid to be believed in my view.
American people are NOT, nor do they represent American, Americans.
AA never accepted cretin’s:”Constitution is not suicide pact” or ANY of Nazi measures forced and imposed by them.
AA are members and part of Humanity, they WILL prevail over Nazis.
Michael Droy says
недоговороспособны – Well exactly. The problem right now is not persuading the west that Ukraine lost some time ago and is in very dire straits. The problem is finding someone to negotiate on behalf of Kiev. Germany and France are as недоговороспособны now as US has been for a long time.
But Putin the idiot? No, 2014 was not a time when Russia could invade Ukraine without taking a huge risk of a Nato reaction directly in Ukraine. 8 years later the big change has been the relative strengths of the Russian and Nato forces. Both in terms of Hypersonics and air defence which means that the West knows (but won’t say) that it can’t take on Russia in anything but a nuclear war. And in terms of the millions of shells prepared to fight with Ukraine and US weapons.
Pretty sure Russia couldn’t fire 50,000 shells and 100 Caliber missiles a day back in 2014. Someone has been doing some serious preparation since 2014 and probably since 2008.
Back in 2014 they might not have been able to withstand the economic sanctions. I’ve heard it suggested they might have even had problems with food supply back then. They have spent the last 8 years preparing for the economic as well as for the military side of things.
You have a good point. Lack of preparedness limited effective response in 2014. The West is a case in point in 2022. It is manifestly unprepared for the military, economic, diplomatic and financial assault now underway by Russia, China, India, Iran and others interested in throwing off the vestiges of a despised colonial system.
Mondo Cane says
I think it’s pretty clear in every Russian’s head now that ‘There’s no going back. This duel is to the bitter end.”
Duels to the death were once fought over far lesser slights than this.
Merkel will live in infamy over this. No doubt whatsoever.
Right. First, Putin’s a lawyer, so things must be legal. Second, he already knew the US would not allow Minsk 1 or 2, since the 2014 coup was to provoke Russia. Third, the steady build up of Russia’s military hadn’t reached SMO, let alone Blitzkrieg, levels. The rumor/leak of the Ukraine (US) genocide plan in 2022 gave Putin a legal basis for the SMO: Care of Responsibility (Geneva Convention, Article 51) if genocide was imminent. Legal, if it ever gets to court.
Patricia Negron says
Russia also had much work still to do in building out SPFS when it would inevitably be shut off from SWIFT by the international banking cartel. Putin also took the very first steps with Xi toward building an alliance that could withstand on obvious oncoming WWIII-style financial, economic, & military onslaught. This was the same time when China sent troops (humanitarian aid, only) to Syria at the official request of Russia. This allowed the two countries to begin developing their military partnership and Russia still needed time to roll out and battle test its S-400 & hypersonic missile systems. Meanwhile, Russian officials ardently pursued economic alliances across the Eurasia, the African Continent & throughout Latin America that are now sustaining it in the face of the onslaught.
My NATO officer nephew bought a house in Germany in 2015 because he was already spending so much time in Poland amassing troops, training Ukranian terrorists, and assembling heavy weaponry. This has been a NATO confrontation all along . . . and Russia needed to have all the essential pieces in place before it could effectively respond to the current multi-lateral onslaught, which it is doing quite well.
However, Russia’s Central Bank has been compromised, and the its Chief, Elvia Nebulliana, was just renominated by Putin, despite being directly responsible for moving an absurdly large amount of Russian assets abroad to the very countries sanctioning them. Either she is wholly incompetent or corrupt. Either way, Putin should have had the good sense to get rid of her when he had the chance.
Yeah, Right says
In an ideal world part of the eventual negotiations to end this war would include a demand by Russia that Fancois Hollande, Angela Merkel and Petro Poroshenko be handed over into their custody.
West: Why, exactly?
Russia: So we can line them up and shoot them.
West: Goodness me, why?
Russia: To encourage the others.
Even if the Russians subsequently admit that they were just pranking everyone with an outrageous demand, Hollande at least should appreciate the sentiment: the phrase “to encourage the others” is an oh-so-French saying.
You omitted Obama. He deserves the first bullet.
Linda T says
Well, I think Biden & Zelensky are right up there neck & neck inhaling his fumes…
Better they should be seated their backs to the firing squad. I think they have earned it.
No OldSalt they have not, they deserve to hang not being shot.
They deserve to have the time to think and remember why they are dying as they fall, personally i would have used short enough rope so they get strangled instead of breaking their necks …
(to give them more time to repent their sins and beg God for mercy)
All of which brings to mind Maria Zakharova’s reference to “tribunals” at her press conference for the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry. Didn’t Merkel just admit to conspiring to wage war with others in explicit violation of an international agreement approved by the UN Security Council? How is that not a Nuremberg level war crime? Someone in the Russian MFA seems to be asking.
Yes, I just molded an article around her briefing, https://vk.com/@580896205-merkel-an-international-criminal-on-par-with-nuland
Yeah, Right says
Indeed, that idea might well be a way of countering Ursula von de Crazy’s latest hare-brained scheme of an ad-hoc War Crimes Tribunal to “justify” finally seizing that $300billion in frozen Russian foreign exchange.
Oh, really, you want to go that route? Fine. Let’s discuss some ad-hoc War Crimes Tribunal’s for Hollande and Merkel. I mean, at least there is documented testimony from Merkel’s own lips.
After all, crazy is as crazy does, and Ursula (who really is the EU’s crazy-idea factory) might just be told to STFU.
Putin was duped. Hard.
An unanswered question remains: Was it willful, naivety (which I find hard to swallow given the Putin’s shrewdness, experience, ability to analyze things, etc.), or too trusting of others, in this case, Merkel?
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
Read Korybko’s piece. He has an theory that I find plausible
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
It is incomprehensible that anyone of even subnormal intelligence- let alone a national leader – should be stupid enough to believe any Western leader about anything, after:
The loot of Russia under Yeltsin
The bombing of Serbia
The Western support to the Chechen insurgency
The destruction of Iraq
The egging on of Georgia to attack South Ossetia
The open support of headchopper cannibal jihadis in Syria
And of course
The criminal bombing of Libya
All of which happened before 2014.
I do not believe therefore that Putin was “fooled”, unless he’s incompetent to hold any kind of office, something that is obviously untrue. At the same time the same Putin threw away the easy and nationally vital opportunity to eliminate the nazi regime in Ukraine in 2014; instead he went out of his way to cripple the LDNR in their liberation campaign and stopped them even from liberating Mariupol in 2015 when the nazis were in headlong retreat. Later it came out that this was to keep Rinat Akhmetov, Azovstal owner, happy. The fact is that Russian oligarchs had and have business interests in Ukranazistan and Putin seems to have imagined that he could buy off Ukrainian oligarchs by not harming their income streams either. Rybar and other Russian commentators on Telegram made the point that Putin went out of his way to not touch the Ukranazi infrastructure that was used to convey all the weapons and reinforcements the nazi regime is given by its Western owners to the front. Those of us who questioned why Russia didn’t destroy the infrastructure were either abused by Putin apologists as “trolls” or given ludicrous excuses that bridges and railways were easy to replace or repair (a friend of mine satirically referred to “Ukraine’s self-regenerating railways”) or that “Russia would need them to advance” (this when Russia had firmly gone into defensive positional warfare except in Lugansk and Donetsk). Only with the advent of Surovikin is the Ukranazi infrastructure being targeted. It seems that the sensibilities of the oligarchs is only now no longer paramount in the planning.
She is obviously a liar and admitted this. BUT since the news of her admission broke, I’ve been wondering, WHY for God’s sake would she do such a seemingly STUPID thing? Isn’t it too “simplistic” to just assume that she is “catering to her western bosses”? She did not HAVE to open her mouth at all.
And why NOW? I may be too naive but I think that is it possible that she is actually the smart one and wanted to warn her former friend NOT to get into any negotiations we have been hearing in the last few weeks that intensified in the days prior to that interview?
She could have gone “into annals of history” or “into that good night” quietly, so why to stir it? And stir she DID!
I was also thinking that she could just make a direct call to Putin and tell him at any point. BUT, would HE have reacted in the same way that he HAS to now when EVERYBODY is talking about it?
Seeing how he is trying to bend over backwards to his “western partners”, I would not be surprised if he would have put this revelation behind him, sweeping it under the table. So maybe, just maybe, she knew him better than anybody else indeed and HAD to do that in public, so he would be FORCED to listen, otherwise his own citizens would disrespect him if he continued to negotiate.
Just want to add this:
I don’t want to speculate on her motives for SIGNING the Accords but maybe this admission is her “mea culpa” before going into “that good night”?
Or maybe I am as naive as Putin and also want to think better of people…
In addition, I also want to BLAME Putin to be a “naive idiot”! As a head of state, as a PATRIOT of his beloved country, he has NO RIGHT to just “trust his good partners” risking thousands of lives of his people as he does NOW with his indecision! WHY did he not DEMAND the implementation of Mink Accords rather than HOPING for more than EIGHT YEARS and countless lives killed by these nazis while his “partners” and “best friends” did nothing?! He had NO RIGHT to do that, naive or not – indecision is not the right of a true statesman and patriot!
Putin looks so insincere in that pic! I think he went through a long period when he thought Russia could be one of the big boys, allied with the west. But on the other hand, if Russia told the big boys to go f themselves way back when, when Russia was weak, that would not have ended well…
Robert Hahl says
Everyone knows there is a chance that an agreement might not be honored. Russia got what it wanted at the time.
@Robert Hahl – you must be an American.
Robert Hahl says
Elial – when you are running a world-spanning empire, take my advice, leave nothing to chance.
Mondo Cane says
Minsk II was unanimously incorporated into UNSC Res 2202, for God’s sake. UNANIMOUSLY. Everyone signed off on it.
Do you understand the foolishness of what you just said?
Robert Hahl says
Mondo Cain – the purpose of the UN since it’s inception is to prevent agreements between countries outside the view and influence of the USA. Again, “everybody” knows this.
This is a most disgusting thing to say, Robert Hahl! You must be ashamed of yourself! If THAT was the world, I would sure not want to live in it 🙁 Agreements are there so the people could be held accountable to what they agreed upon. AND they had Merkel as one of that agreement’s GUARANTORS! Only DISHONEST people do not follow agreement, verbal or written – and politicians are not absolved of this responsibility.
“If you managed to deceive a person, this does not mean that he is a fool, it means that you were trusted more than you deserve it.” – Charles Bukowski
Now the whole world knows it. Another win for Putin.
Yeah, Right says
The problem with the claim “Putin was duped!” assumes that he really did have viable options that he chose not to take.
I am not at all sure that is true. “Trusting” Merkel and Hollande over the Minsk agreement gave the Russians around eight years to make their economy “sanctions proof” before embarking on the SMO.
If you want a historic precedent, it was a mega-Munich moment. Chamberland was pilloried over being duped in Munich in 1938, but a case can be argued that this gave Britain – and especially the RAF – more than a year of extra preparation at a time when they were terribly vulnerable.
Imagine the Battle of Britain being fought while the German’s already had the Me-109 and the Brits had a hodge-podge of Gloster biplane fighters…..
Paulo Guerra says
This one about Mutti deceiving Putin is good. Putin must have borrowed the dog.
Carlton Meyer says
Chamberlain was not duped at Munich. It was a successful peace conference that deterred a Hungarian invasion. After World War II, warmongers altered this history.
Very good questions, especially number 1. To my mind it was obvious that the Minsk agreements wouldn’t be adhered to, although I thought they would play along with them long enough to regain control of the Donetsk & Lugansk regions, then re-nazify them and suppress anyone who resisted.
For whatever reason, Russia still seems to want to negotiate, even though Putin has said several times that the West is not agreement capable. Unsurprisingly, they get burned every time they sign an “agreement”. For example the “grain deal” involved a quid pro quo for Russia relating to fertilizer exports, which still hasn’t happened. Now there seem to be some negotiations about a “security zone” around the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant which I suspect will ultimately lead to it being handed back to Ukraine.
I really don’t know why they keep signing agreements which they must know won’t be honoured. It’s as if they are gluttons for punishment. Most of the reasons I’ve thought of or seen suggested don’t portend well for the future.
As for number 2 I suspect that (at least until recently) they all hoped they would be last to be eaten.
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
I agree generally that Putin & Co keep trying long after I think they should have stopped.
But consider 1) the war in Ukraine is just one battlefield in a world war 2) it’s a long process 3) there’s an audience out there that is not part of the so-called “international community”.
They watch, they learn.
(Why are people in Burkino Faso and Mali waving Russian flags? Answer — they’ve watched, they’ve learned.)
If your read or watch the speeches that President Putin has been giving for the last few Years, you see an Honest Man trying hard to negotiate and accommodate with “Ukraine”, Europe and the FUSSA. At every turn, he was Dismissed, often in Insulting ways, by the zionist/neocon element in the ‘government’. Read the Transcript of the Talk that he had recently with the Mothers of some Soldiers fighting in the Ukraine- including some who Lost there Sons- and try to Imagine any ‘Western Leader’ capable of doing that.
Why is Putin and Russia HATED by the ‘western establishment’? Russia has Rejected, in Law, all of the Globohomo agenda – and Expelled as ‘foreign agents’ the many western, ‘non-government organizations’ funded by (((grygori schwartz))), and Russia has soundly Rejected the entire (((WEF))) program for World Slavery.
Until the alien, satanic, anti-Human ‘new world order’ is Crushed, and its minions in all ‘western governments’ are Deposed (and Wood-Chippered) this War will continue.
Mike D. says
Next summer if a asteroid hit the Obama compound in Martha’s Vineyard, a strong case can be made
that would be a big plus for the human condition-one of those arc of history corrections Soros and the Great One refer to
Mondo Cane says
The writing was on the wall when the EU told the RF to screw off over negotiating an acceptable solution to Yanukovych’s acceptance of EU import/export rules that also accomodated the tariff free trade between UA and RF. “NO negotiation! It’s a done deal and you have no business in it, said the EU.” Those were fighting words. They got their fight, so who’s to complain?
Education moment of the week.
Smiles like a shy teenager at the prom.
Accepts the graciously offered flowers then stabs the gentlemen in the back. For years l have had nagging doubts about that woman. (and nation)
Thanks Larry, another article that exposes the un fathomable for what it truly is. Mr. Putin and Mr Orban are incredibly, the only true leaders Europe has …or ever had.
Les Priest says
“Non agreement capable” says plenty. With Angela’s confession, it becomes obvious that you cannot bargain with the euros. Only a victory on the battlefield! I get most of my information from Russian sources; a continual point of discussion is that this is Napoleon & Hitler all over again, united europe invading Russia, again!
A major difference between 2014 & now, is that NATO doesn’t stand a chance against the Russian army. That was not clear in 2014; Donbas militia #’s weren’t big enough to take the fight into the Ukrainian heartland, & the risk averse Vladimir Putin did not want to commit significant #’s of Russian troops. I’d love to see the Russian army reorganize Warsaw & Berlin (again), but there is too big a chance of the USNATO, trying to save their wrecked position by dropping/firing a tactical nuke! Calling Doctor Strangelove, Doctor Strangelove are you in the house?
His brother Dr. Schwabenlove is.
Like common sense and Sun Tsu dictate, in war the first principle is to get everybody aligned into one with the Sovereign, with the state and the king. By “trusting” the naziwestfinks such as Hausefrau M, Putin has allowed her to walk into the trap, along with naziwest co-conspirators – The result in that Ruskie people are aligned with Putin and 100% reject bullchittalks with lying nazifinks… Putin played the west, big judo. And more, he gave them the opportunity to save themselves, and they rejected it – choosing suicide by defeat in war. Whatever happens post hoc, the west had their chance and willfully chose violence, deception, crime… West has convicted itself. Any “trust” Putin may have had was merely pro-forma…a routine that exposed the criminals, and it has worked.
I am, however, curious as to why Hausefrau M blabbed out her crime…
“Any “trust” Putin may have had was merely pro-forma…a routine that exposed the criminals, and it has worked.”
That makes the most sense to me. I don’t believe Putin deludes himself with regard to who and what he and Russia are dealing with.
As for the bearish Merkel’s decision to reveal the Western deceit behind the Minsk accords now? Perhaps she (correctly) observes the negligible levels of testosterone emanating from Scholz and Macron and Sunak et al., and is contemplating coming out of retirement to provide a real jolt of it?
Performance matters says
I agree with Walter!
And now Germans have to fear that their asch turns Blue from the cold Winter!
I would have tended to agree with both of you BUT, as a Russian living in the west, my pain is with Russian people – those who did and still die in Ukraine. Politicians play with human lives – for them it is a chess game and Putin plays a very sophisticated LONG game in which the whole world is a chessboard! Don’t take me wrong, – I greatly admire Putin and understand that he sees that long game much better than any of us and KNOWS that he is about to declare “check” BUT his gambit still is with Russian people as pawns that eliminated so the King can finish the game on an empty board.
There is always a reason. It’s not an accident. Most likely they want Russians to think Putin was weak in 2014 and force him to do something rash now.
Really now clutching straws.
Mondo Cane says
I am, however, curious as to why Hausefrau M blabbed out her crime…
That IS curious. Either Merkel is as dense as lead or she thought she would be taken as a hero, riding to the rescue over the very extensively propagandized tripe that Putin’s intent all along was to take Ukraine, then Poland and the Baltic States, then on to Western Europe, which would again suggest she’s as dense as lead, so I guess It’s not a case of either/or.
But she honestly couldn’t be THAT stupid, could she? Did she not realize she just shot the UN Charter in the head?
Mondo Cane says
Another possibility: Since Poroshenko had already on several occassions said the very same, maybe she thought Ukraine was about to suffer consequences in western opinion and she thought (how noble of her) that admitting her role would somehow ameliorate any consequences to Ukraine. “Pass the buck to me. I’m invincible.”
Who knows what goes on in such minds. I’m getting the heebeejeebees just guessing what the rationale might have been. All I know is there WILL be consequences. Now, time for a shower.
It is to set the board for Russians to really hate Westerners, all Westerners like Martyanov does. Our leaders set us up for a lost conflict a vengeful enemy that won´t care how much you “were against” the “Western” leaders and only want to punish.
And by providing the criminals with multiple opportunities to do right, it removes all excuses for them when they suffer the inevitable consequences of their crimes.
The antirussian mood in the west and germany has gotten very intense. In germany they began attacking both Gerhard Schröder and Angela Merkel for being pro-russian putin agents, so i think the answer is simple as to why she confessed to her crime. There is complete unity among western oligarchs in their hatred of russia and china, the only difference among western oligarchs on the question of the western relationship with russia is whether the west should completely destroy russia or whether the west should allow a subjugated and enslaved russia remain as a vassal state, these two options seem to be the topic of discussion among western oligarchs as to what the west should do with russia (and china and others). The hardliners wanting russias destruction seem to be the great majority among western oligarchs, whereas the softies that only want to turn russia into a vassal state to be looted (like under yeltsin) seems to be a minority that know fight for their own political survival in the west. The hardliners are angry because the west is now in real dire straits on the verge of collapse, so they see the softies as being responsible for the current state of affairs, imagining that if the west had only just completely destroyed russia somehow, they would now be the undisputed masters of the globe. They forget that its their own hardline attitude towards russia and the rest of the world that brought them to this point. The sanctions war the hardliners began waging against russia at the start of SMO were intended to destroy russia, but it destroyed themselves instead, so now they are looking for someone to blame amongst themselves, the sacrificial lamb will be the softies, and thus Angela Merkel is doing these interviews to distance herself from the softie faction and insert herself into the hardliner faction so as to prevent herself from being thrown under the bus which is what will happen to those that are now seen as having been to soft on russia. Gerhard Schröder was sanctioned by the german government. We just had that socalled coup attempt in germany, a complete farce, this is the beginning of the purging in germany and probably the rest of the west of all genuine reasonable people and pro-world, pro-russia, pro-china groups. At some point someone is going to be held accountable for the demise and collapse of the west and the western oligarchs, the WEF crowd in particular want to make sure its not them (even though it is), thus someone is gonna have to be sacrificed because people are going to be very angry soon, that would be those politicians that have been soft on russia and putin. Im almost certain that within 5 years europe is going to become an “undeveloped” area of the world, millions of europeans could freeze and starve to death in this period, due to a huge shortage of energy supplies the result of which will be collapse of industry, which will further exacerbate the situation, unemployment levels of unprecedented proportions 25%+, foreclosures, police state measures to keep the angry populations in place, massive riots, looting and crime, germany, france, spain, italy and greece could all face actual civil wars. The near future is going to be extremely chaotic, the exact path being almost impossible to predict, what is the USA, Russia and China in particular going to do in response to whats coming? Who knows? Is the ukraine war going to spread to poland, the baltic states, belarus, moldova, romania, the balkans, the caucasus and elsewhere? possibly. is the USA gonna be insane enough to attempt a nuclear 1st strike attack on russia? possibly. What is gonna happen within
the USA, civil war, the rise of a totalitarian police state, a collapse of the USA into fragments? who knows. Is china and russia going to try and help europe rebuild after the collapse? The old era is dead, that much is sure though and Merkel is trying to ingratiate herself with the faction of western oligarchs currently in power to avoid becoming a political sacrifice for the folly of their own mad decisions.
Robert Hahl says
She confessed to the crime to claim the glory, like Oppenheimer.
I guess she went out with this statement in order to clear herself from disingenuous but persistent claims in the German political class (those who have taken over since then) that she allegedly has been too soft on Putin all along and specifically in the aftermath of the Maidan.
Nedogovorosposobny can be transliterated as three words adjective, if we break it down…
Note that the word “dogovoro” is in its conjugated form. The base word is “dogovor”.
Your understanding of this adjective is spot on. The other party in a dialogue cannot be relied upon to hold their part of an agreement. They are incapable of making any agreements.
And indeed it is so. They only stick to any agreements as long as it is beneficial to them.. from their point of view its a zero-sum game after all.
Thank you for another excellent article.
Jack Gordon says
Bert Huber says
In Germany yesterday a ridicilous police action took place.
a big raid on a “far right group”, which was said to be intending to bring down the goverment and to turn the country to a kingdom and take over all the country.
Imagine: 3000 policemen engaged.
They arrested 25 persons , most of them quite old and they found a “huge'” number of arms: 1 gun , a few blank cartridge pistols, a crossbow.
Enough to do a revolution.
Charles E. Fromage says
Its leftist security theater, to move public opinion and create justification for whatever political plans they have next.
The USA is doing the same thing. Obama/Holder created BLM as their own brownshirts and red guards, to demoralize people and create a sense of crisis. The FBI infiltrated and turned the Jan. 6 rally into an “attack” on the capitol, no matter how pathetic the narrative was. Not one weapon was found on Jan. 6, either
Before BLM there was the New Black Panthers, who I’ve always suspected of being Hillary’s very own tonton macoutes, available for covert missions of any and all sorts. But hey, that’s just based on her character analysis.
The current hapless management team in Berlin orchestrates a morality play that perfectly addresses all the memes and tropes of the current juncture, and even manages an echo of the ‘insurrection’ in little brother’s land.
Color me skeptical, so perfect coming at just the right time. The courageous knights get to slay all the major and minor dragons of the time and justify why they are the knight and you are the peasant, sweeping together all the contrary people as bed-fellows: anti-government, anti-migrant, anti-vax, conspiracy nuts, Putin sympathizers, right wing extremists, nationalists, etc. We must act against those insects undermining our strength from within.
Bert Huber says
agree with you
Also it was a show.
Many politicians and media were informed a week before.
Show arrests , just like in dictatorships
No one will ever trust them again and certainly not Washington DC.
The West deserves everything coming its way. I just wish it impacted on the elite scum (politicians and apparatchiks) who are 100% responsible for the disaster, and not ordinary folk.
Maybe it will end up being ordinary folk in Europe who eventually mete out justice to the elites. After all, very soon there will certainly be no shortage of lampposts in a ruined Europe – and they can be very useful in these circumstances.
Juan Suros says
недоговороспособны = Untrustworthy?
How about just …“devious, lying scum who’ll stab you in the back at the first opportunity and steal your wallet once you’ve bled out on the floor.”
I am now at 2023 – 80 years old.
My Grandfather who raised me was then 60 years old when he told me that you could never trust a politican or a banker. The local Banker left the country on a ship with all the savings of the community and with the assistance of a number of persons in government and banking community; was never apprehended nor the funds recovered. For those delusional souls that was knowledge of 140 years and more.
But this has been going on for thousands of years.
I ask: who is stupid?
There is no choice; Choice is an illusion: WWIII very soon.
Jorge Nunes says
Excellent article and excellent questions. They seem to come from the same reasoning conveyed by Alex Christophoru in this video:
Mike Fischer says
Wasn’t it the native Americans that used to say “white man speak with forked tongue”?
What today’s crop of bankers, diplomats, and politicians have done is destroy western credibility in the eyes of the world, and removed any notion of trust.
They have made multiple agreements with “western elite” back in the day. You know how that ended. Western credibility was never a thing.
The German State is still under occupation… NATO was formed partially to keep Germany down and hence the destruction of the Nordstream pipelines by NATO is just in line with their mandate… Germany is a beaten self loathing soon to be failed State. Russia saw the writing on the wall….2014 was not the right time to go up against NATO economically or militarily…. Russia knew the west was using the Minsk Accords as a mechanism to covertly prepare for war just as Russia was…..and here we are. Just saw some of the new U.S military budget allocation…an awful lot of artillery shells and rocket ordinance that won’t make it in time for saving Ukraine but I suspect a conventional ground war is in the plans….and I suspect that Russia is holding back it’s best for this impending eventuality
There’s a big problem with Korybko’s analysis–there’s no way Germany could become the EU Top Dog without cheap Russian energy, and she admittedly sabotaged that too. So, one ought to say that Merkle was played by the Outlaw US Empire too as it’s clearly the main beneficiary (in some respects, not all by far) of the Ukraine crisis to this point.
I also disagree with Korybko as it was clear both before and very overtly after the Coup with Nuland’s admissions and EU behavior that turning East was the ticket, and that fact can be verified. What failed Putin was the Rest of the World (RoW) to pressure NATO to implement UNSC 2022–the Minsk Agreements–not even China acted in the proper manner in that regard, which IMO is one of the few mistakes Xi has made. But I shouldn’t just single out China as India did nothing too.
China and India have similar restive provinces where they are trying to overwhelm the local culture, language and religion and wipe it off facing resistance from the people. They are mortally afraid to give justification for out side actors to enforce autonomy in those provinces
Charles E. Fromage says
If the West truly wanted “time” for Ukraine to develop into a strong, free and independent bulwark against Russia – they would have simply guaranteed its total neutrality. Ukraine, with Crimea (!) could have peacefully developed its economy and social institutions for decades, to withstand interference from both Russia and the West.
But its clear that is NOT what the West (ie. the USA) wanted. They really did not care if Ukraine developed itself in peace. They wanted Ukraine as a constant irritant, and spike in Russia’s side. They would up the ante until either Ukraine or Russia broke apart.
Mondo Cane says
Well said, Chucky Cheese……It was the Brzezinski Doctrine at work.
Tom Hickey says
Putin was certainly lied to but arguably he was not fooled. A likely reason Russia was amenable to the agreement then was its unreadiness for a wider war with NATO at the time, which it apparently anticipated.
So instead of just sitting and waiting while NATO armed and trained Ukraine, “Combined Putin” took advantage of the time to develop parity with NATO and in some key weapons systems superiority also. Thus, Russia also bought time as a result of the lies.
NATO likely didn’t anticipate this and judging from their initial reaction to Putin’s announcement of new weapons and their lack of preparedness when the weapons were unveiled. Even then, their reaction was, “Hypersonics? No big deal.”
And if they have been telling the truth about their conviction that Russia will run out of artillery ordinance and missiles, they failed to anticipate that buildup and the industrial capacity it is based on—just like they were wildly off the mark about the effect of the sanctions. Russia was preparing for economic warfare eventuality too.
I remember the first meeting between Blinken and his Chinese counterpart in Alaska. The Chinese FM chided Blinken and the US delegation and said “We thought too well of you.”
This is the story of the Global South: they have falsely thought too well of the Collective West for too long. They have been fooled by the talk of freedom and human rights and free trade, which the Western elites have never themselves believed in.
Empire ends when the illusion ends. So too with the US dollar.
Gandhi had it right when he replied to the question, “What do you think of Western Civilisation?” He replied, “I think it is a very good idea”.
Yep! In case some people didn’t get that properly.
It meant it would be a good idea if the West got civilised.
» Why would anybody in the rest of the world – China, India, Iran, the Middle East, Africa, South America – ever bother negotiating with these people ever again about anything? «
Ah. Why indeed.
The long history goes all the way back to the treaties agreed to by the native peoples.
I don’t think Putin was fooled at all?
Putin was proceeding from the notion that geo-political actors will act rationally in accordance with their own self-interest.
Once you let go of that principle, there is no way to speak or to proceed, except the use of force.
Eric Newhill says
Yes. Playing chess only works both players agree to the rules of the game. If, even in a million-dollar prize match, one player is willing to throw the pieces across the room and flip the table over, then all of the chess playing skill that a human could muster means nothing – and it’s a totally different game. Actually, it’s not even a game at that point.
As the World Churns says
geo-political actors will act rationally in accordance with their own self-interest.
Interesting, and the exact same assumption Greenspam made for his recently deregulated banks pre 2008 meltdown. And they indeed did act in their own short-term self interest, throwing rationality to the winds.
It’s a concept useful for any occassion, including suicide hotlines.
Curt Nichols says
I get somewhat bored at certain aspects of history like this. If is like some loon telling you about the “Federalist papers”, and how a court will soon overturn the US government. Cool story dude. There is only one question that is relevant. Has Putin woke up? Does he finally understand his little European buddies he loves so much would have him against a firing squad wall if they could? He is not in a Special Military Operation. He is in a war for the very survival of Russia. And by the way, possibly for whatever passes for freedom for the rest of the world. Because right now, we are headed for a Mommy Police State with surveillance cameras everywhere to see if you recycle. With mandatory abortion and euthanasia for all. True story time. I was at the Childers Veterans Hospital in Tulsa. Got told to take a seat. There were some sand box kids talking. I sit down and one asks me. “Want to play Dad?” I say sure, what we playing. He says, “When did you realize you weren’t Luke Skywalker, you were a Stormtrooper?” I was still laughing with tears coming out of my eyes when they called my name. And as a clue to my ignorance, it took me about 20 years. Growing up. It’s painful.
What comes to mind is the fable of the tortoise and the hare.
A race 2014-2022 to prepare for a conflict between NATO and Russia (economically between the west and the global south). NATO, based on its “interpretation” of its intel, decided it would win a conflict in 2022. From the perspective of the end of 2022, the best NATO effort is being besting by the best effort of Russia.
As such, I disagree that Putin was fooled in 2014 – Russian actions suggest Russia “trusted” but “verified,” and prepared for the coming conflict.
Apologies, I just saw this piece was written by Helmholtz. Nice piece, Helmholtz!
I do not agree with you 💯. Both Russia and Ukraine needs time. Putin wanted to prepare Russian public, make them angry what Ukrainians are doing to enthuse Russians. In 2014 I would be against breakaway republics. I get it, their presidents got kicked, but need to get along. But what ukies did to Donbas makes my blood boil 😡. I have seen video of children living in basements, killed and blown up on the streets, soldiers being tortured and crucified and burned alive. I had it so is Russia. Ukraine lost its right to exist! So Putin Russia is ready.
“Unworthy of negotiations” or *unworthy of partnership ” or just crooks in plain language. I can’t believe I was a relatively high opinion of Angela Merkel. What a cynical schemer!
Paulo Guerra says
This is just Muti telling her father and the Germans that she didn’t do it and doesn’t deserve punishment. So typical. Definitely, the conflict in Ukraine, in addition to being economic, is above all a conflict of disinformation and this is just one more piece. Furthermore, this past has no bearing on the present of the conflict. Most of those who talk about the Accords either don’t remember or never knew the context in which the agreements were signed.
The Minsk Protocol (Minsk 1) was signed after a series of successes of the military offensive of the separatists supported by Russian troops when they already held control of the entire Ukrainian-Russian border at the end of August 2014! Which facilitated any exchange. And the agreement of February 12, 2015 (Minsk II) was signed even more hastily when thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and thousands of NATO troops – it was never known how many – were surrounded by separatists in Debaltseve. And it was only to save NATO troops that Merkl was called. Which resulted in a deal that was very favorable to Russia, of course. It was always the separatists’ position of strength that forced the United States to force deals, which was also why many people in the breakaway republics were at odds with the Kremlin. But from here to think that Putin was deceived… Russia has its own timing in the geostrategic framework.
And it is no less true that the Ukrainian offensive that triggered the SMO only happened with Scholz as Chancellor. Merkl was never a great politician, but she was the last Western European politician to tell the US that Europe had to take its destiny into its own hands. And what she came to do now, as indeed Poroshenko did before, was just a public relations operation to preserve her image. And Merkl, who also already realized the defeat, decided that he does not want to go down in history associated with the defeat of the West. Because what always stood in the way of the Minsk accords was not Poroshenko, Merkl or even Zelensky.
It was the US – as now in April, when they sent the English poodle – and the neo-Nazi nationalists who threatened to kill every politician in Ukraine who tried to implement it. Especially Minsk II, which forced the revision of the Constitution. That is why Russia talks about the need to denazify Ukraine, which shocked many people in 2022. In short, another fait divers that does nothing to contribute to the conflict today. I’m much more bothered by the current hype. As the UN is completely in US hands, now comes another completely false account of Russia’s war crimes. Like Busha. As for the war crimes of Ukrainian soldiers, even against other Ukrainian soldiers… In a conflict only with false perceptions in the West!
On Merkel, I have often wondered if she was compromised in some way. Perhaps the CIA had some sort of Epstein-like file on her recovered from the Stasi, or she was just afraid of retribution for disobedience and chose not to rock the boat.
I do not think she had any grand strategy for Germany. She just played along and got along, even with the public humiliation that Obama was tapping her phone.
It was admitted that the NSA was listening to her personal cell phone. Whether it had dirt on her is unknown.
Paulo Guerra says
Just look at the photo. Merkl is the Oedipus complex personified. He never broke a plate in his life and spent the crash running away from his Minister of Finance in a wheelchair. Khol, the political father, say so.
Paulo Guerra says
Errata: She never broke a plate in his life and spent the crash running away from his Minister of Finance in a wheelchair. Khol, the political father, say so.
I see no room or need for random assumptions of the kind you are suggesting. Merkel’s political cradle is the CDU/CSU and this party has been blindly aligned with the US and NATO’s world policies forever. Had Merkel been in charge in early 2003, German troops would have marched into Iraq together with the US, British, Australian, Poles. Fortunately that time (2003) Schröder was the German Chancellor in charge. Maybe if Merkel had been in charge in early 2022 instead of Scholz, she wouldn’t have tacitly allowed (as Scholz did) the blowing up of NS1/NS2. But I am not even really sure of that. The CDU are congenitally meek towards the US, but present day SPD and Greens are no better. Sad to watch even for no-Germans.
Brian 0. says
“Putin duped” by Merkel or the west in this century; Doubtful.
I would be willing to bet that after being exposed to the best the US had advising Yeltsin, he would never be taken in again. He may have had to take actions offensive to me to keep order in the Duma or the Kremlin, but he wasn’t in the dark about it. Far from it.
It is for his new friends that were once in the western sphere; These countries are being hounded right now by US state to not buckle under the benefits (losses) of the dollar. They are promising anything to keep them from going BRICS but I don’t see how it could work any longer.
The proof is how this matter is being prosecuted. It is demonstrating that Russia isn’t like the US who will destroy everything you have to get your attention. They break something, they come back and fix it, re; the Mariupol rebuilding. Putin has known for years he has to bankrupt the west. Russia has stockpiled enough weaponry to de nazify, demilitarize and demystify the world to show the bully hasn’t got it any more. The emperor has no clothes and everyone can see.
Excellent summation. Of course the question is why she admitted it, because it was no slip of the tongue. I think a few commenters have gotten to it or as close as we ever will.
IMO, her great achievement was bringing German industry to what was its level before Ukraine. She was all in on NS2. She was instrumental in making Germany the economic powerhouse of Europe. She’s also East German and that may be a factor here and she had a pretty good relationship with Putin (except for the dog incident). All her achievements are now gone but she’s relatively untouchable.
So is she falling on the grenade or tossing one?
Shinmen Takezo says
I am completely surprise that Putin has not taken three shots of vodka and then pushed the big red button (how to you say “f$ck it” in Russian?) to let all the nuke-skis fly so far. The man has a lot of patience–but that patience is all gone I believe. I have been listening to Colonel McGreggor for the past few months on this crisis and most everything he has predicted has come to pass. Now there are over 550,000 Ivans massing on the Russian western border and inside Belarus and soon I believe this Ukraine mess is going to come to a rapid bloody ending for the corrupt Zelensky regime. Yes–I am for Putin and his cause simply because all the western globalist-homo-powers, plus the leftist-communists who control DC and our military, plus the leftist MSM in this country are all aligned against Putin and Russia. There’s that old saying that the ‘enemy of my enemy is my friend” –which applies here in spades. Once Putin crushes Ukraine (coming soon I believe) it will further humiliate and most likely bring down the zipper-heads in DC and in the Pentagram (formerly the Pentagon) who are propelling this country in the they abyss. The only wildcard in this situation is will the zipper-heads (and Bolton and his ilk comes to mind) panic and thrust this country into WWIII and the canned sunshine that will follow. I read an interesting comment a couple weeks back entitled “WWIII and then Civil War” –or something to that effect. It all seems very plausible now.
Eric Newhill says
I just wrote my opinion of the predicted big Russian offensive in a comment below. I think it won’t happen. On the other hand, perhaps Putin will indeed just say “F_ it” and see if the west is bluffing or not – and, if not, what they can actually bring to the war and how much they’re willing to lose. I’m not sure he really has a choice at this point. If I was Putin, I would use the newly arrived reserve troops to solidify my control of the referenda territories and to build up defenses. I wouldn’t go messing with Zelensky in Kiev. Zelensky is nothing. The real enemy is the US/Globohomo.
The media here is so completely controlled and the elite so insulated from any accountability, that absent an event that sends the US fleet to Davy Jones’ locker (and no response with the military overriding the politician’s response – probably after couping the president and congress), nada will change as the media pivots to Taylor Swift’s, new third breast (or equivalent).
At some point the dollar will not be the reserve currency, and the next day everything will change.
As the World Churns says
I am completely surprise that Putin has not taken three shots of vodka and then pushed the big red button (how to you say “f$ck it” in Russian?) to let all the nuke-skis fly so far.
We might be getting far closer to that moment than anyone cares to contemplate. Just keep poking the bear and killing its cubs.
Maybe Merkel was sincere before, and she’s lying now.
Eric Newhill says
Right, Helmholtz. I’ve been saying since Feb 24th – even before then – that we’re simply going to have WW3 because the west is convinced it can and must destroy Russia and is non-negotiable. It’s why I have been skeptical about analysis that concludes Ukraine is just about militarily finished any day now and that Russian victory is assured.
On it’s own, sure. Ukraine would be overrun militarily, but Ukraine has never been on its own. We know there are now Poles fighting on the front lines in the thousands. The US, UK, Canada and others are in-country providing a variety of support. I am convinced that if the last Ukrainian soldier were to be killed and Russia appeared on the verge of decisive victory, NATO – or at least Poland and the US (some eastern Euros too) would put 90,000 + boots on the ground immediately to hold/stall, while another 500,000 to 1,000,000 prepared for deployment. The US Navy would sail into position off the shores of Ukraine. The US Air Force would be in the skies. I’m talking big bombers in addition to the smaller birds. Maybe the Russians would start killing them in large numbers too and sinking ships and shooting down the bombers. I think they’d have to try. If so, then the situation would escalate from there. The Russians would have to target bases/staging areas in Europe. Then it’s an attack on NATO. If the Russians held back and just took them on when they entered Ukraine, they’d probably lose. Air defenses and ground troops would be overwhelmed at some point.
I also think the Russians know the bad spot they’re in; between a rock and a hard place. IMO, that explains the withdrawal from Kherson. They weren’t afraid of the Ukrainian forces. They’re afraid of the troops that the US, Poland, et al are going to send in when the last Ukrainian troop is dead. The Dnieper is a bit of a natural defense; better than nothing, at least. Furthermore, I think this is why we will not see the predicted frozen ground final, decisive Russian offensive (see MacGregor, Ritter, et al). That offensive will just expedite what is coming (i.e western attack). The Russians need to think about holding the newly acquired territory and protecting Russia itself.
Finally, this is why I think Russia played a very bad game of chess. They have given the west too much time to work up a plan. With every day that passes, the west becomes more prepared for their next move. Russia should have gone in big and ruthless on the 24th, seized everything east of the Dnieper and declared it victory, while calling up a million more troops and building defenses to deal with the west’s reaction – but Russia didn’t comprehend that the west will not back down. Russia still appears to not be taking the west seriously enough.
I know that many esteemed analysists, our excellent host, Larry, included, keep insisting that the west has no appetite for direct war against Russia. As intelligent and knowledgeable as Larry and the others are, I believe that is one point that they are getting wrong, terribly wrong. I mean no one in their right minds actually relishes such a war, but there are some people in the halls of power who are NOT in their right minds and there are many people who will get caught up in events as they unfold and who will slip and slide, one development after another, into escalation because losing/negotiating isn’t an option and all of their lesser and proxy measures are failing one by one. Russia cannot back down because that perceived (by the west) “victory” will encourage further attacks on Russia itself. It really is just going to WW3. It’s not a matter of “if”, only of “when”. Merry Christmas.
Well Merry Christmas then and Happy Armageddon too you also.
After the West exhausts Ukrainians, Polish and Romanians and the “real Westerners” begin to die in this War – then the West will stop and by this time, the seasoned now Russian army will dictate the new security guarantees treaty. Now, for the West the bleeding and dying Ukrainians are just a computer war game.
Eric Newhill says
I hope you’re right, but I don’t think you are. Once the “real westerners” start dying en masse, the only possible answer in the minds of the western leadership is to double down and escalate. “The West” is akin to a religious cult. The possibility of Russian victory – to the extent that it can even be whispered behind closed doors and with most trusted people – is deemed existential to the cult. The only event that could alter the trajectory is armed popular uprising by the non-elites of the west.
The UK/EU has had no appetite for a large landwar since WWI, while the US learned the lesson of protracted, unwinnable attrition on foreign soil in Vietnam. Their alternative strategic efforts of power projection have been methodically and predictably repeated throughout the world since then.
They have two huge problems. Those assymetrical methods did not work in China or Russia. And now the whole world knows it.
No Western govt could politically survive sending 10’s of thousands of troops only to see 1 in 5 or 6 shredded by RU artillery and air support in Ukraine or Eastern Europe. Only a few useful mercs, nazi cultists, and delusional gung ho wargame idiots are willing to fight in Ukraine…but you can bet they never thought they would die there.
Eric Newhill says
I agree to a large extent, but appetite or no appetite for a large land war after WW1, we still ended up with WW2. The leadership in WW2 had even actually experienced WW1 themselves. That’s one of my points. Events take on a life of their own and escalation becomes inevitable whether or not desired. History is rife with examples of that kind of terrible spiral.
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
Indeed. Hitler himself had gone through the whole thing as a front-line soldier
Eric Newhill says
One more comment – if the west truly is reticent about large numbers of casualties among troops and can’t overcome the populations’ resistance like they were able to in WW2 after WW1, then first strike nuclear and bio becomes far more likely.
Everyone is looking for a reason to believe that the war can’t escalate. Maybe that’s what Putin was doing too when he appeared to be buying into Minsk. Well, it can escalate and, IMO, will.
You missed out the thermobaric missiles taking out the parliaments of france, jermany, Gt Britain, and all the rest – hopefully when they are ‘sitting’.
Whacking the united shits of america senates and such at the same time would be advantageous for everyone.
Oh, and soros and his bloefeld styled mates, for luck.
What’s not to like?
Eric Newhill says
Well, as an American, I don’t like my country being attacked and my fellow Americans dying. If was just the deserving asshats in Washington, New York City and such places….well…not too bad. We can build back better, but it wouldn’t be that limited. I also don’t like it because I know what the response would be and the response to that response. At the end of the cycle, we’re all dead or living in Mad Max world.
Btw, America is the greatest nation in the world. It’s been hijacked, relatively recently, by some very rotten people. I will never go along with America haters, socialists/anti-capitalists and assorted other leftists, third world idiots, Muslims, Eurotrash and random oddball whiners and subversives that like to think people like me, who disapprove of the current situation, are allies somehow.
Muslims do better than white Americans in USA despite all the disadvantages they face,
There is nothing special about USA. It mastered the industrial revolution with mass manufacturing , geographically isolated from enemies. Took advantage of post ww2 to ensure dollar hegemony.
Unfortunately the east has resources and has mastered the industrial revolution too.
The money train keeps it on top. But that wont last long. Eventually the money will follow resources and production and human capital.
Eric Newhill says
Individual freedom and self governance versus the king or mullah signing off on you being stoned to death for kissing your boyfriend or your head chopped off for dancing to certain kinds of music. Man lives by more than bread alone. It’s not all about economics and wealth. although the US surpassed all nations in that regard with more economic mobility and less class/cast restrictions. It’s about freedom; something that scares Muslims.
The US was already the most mighty industrial nation prior to WW2. The war production didn’t come out of thin air in a couple of years. The Muslim world will never prosper because it is primitive in its culture. That is their big disadvantage. Muslims that do well here in the USA are the cream of the crop of their culture, but even they need the freedom of the USA to achieve. This is not about racism – as you seem to want it to be – it’s about culture.
Exceptionalism is a dish best served cold, to hungry immigrants.
You just made me decide to leave America, lover boy.
America (USA to you sticklers) was built on abundant resources, a population with a strong work ethic and the political wisdom of the founding fathers. Where are we now, lover boy? Every one being methodically chipped away in one way or another. Cue the arrival of ‘globalism’. There’s good globalism and bad globalism i.e the inherently exploitative notion of ‘full spectrum dominance’. I doubt at this stage that ‘good globalism’ is even in our political lexicon.
Know thine limitations. It’ll make survival and prosperity easier on all of us, foreign and domestic.
Paulo Guerra says
It remains to be seen what kind of war Eric is thinking about? XI just landed on a red carpet in Saudi Arabia. There were jetfighters with chemtrails the color of the Chinese flag and all. 34 contracts in 24 hours should be a lot of oil! Remember Biden going to the Middle East to claim what was US by divine right so as not to leave a vacuum for Russians and Chinese and only saw the middle finger of the MBS? It just happened! The petrodollar crumbling as we speak! And Egypt officially joined the BRICS development bank, where the new currency will be born. With the Saudis and Turkey waiting. WWIII has already started some time ago!
As for the West’s entry into Ukraine, again in what kind of war is Eric thinking about? Nuclear? After they sent the two drones against nuclear facilities? Because there is no more conventional ammunition even to send to ukrop!
Eric Newhill says
There’s plenty of conventional ammo in the west to fight for a while + the US could ramp up production fairly quickly if it needed to. Most of the wider arsenal of good stuff hasn’t been sent to Ukraine. Only a narrow range of types has been sent there.
Yes, Eric is thinking of conventional conflict soon escalating to nuclear. The biggest challenge faced by the west is supply lines. Russia is right there and the US far away. Shipping would be threatened by Russian submarines. For every move there is counter. That spirals into nuclear exchange when the US has faced too many losses. If Russia seeks to avoid nuclear by throwing soft punches and holding back, then the US takes the soft punches as Russian weakness and becomes more aggressive and soon Russia must get serious. Neither side can accept defeat. Both sides have significant non-nuclear capabilities and both sides have a large number of nuclear weapons and various delivery systems. So all roads lead to escalation. Once the spiral of conventional weapons countering conventional means is exhausted, the next level is nuclear.
Whatever non-military strategy is applied will only escalate the path to nuclear war. So starving, freezing, economic destruction, etc. isn’t going to be a path to capitulation of one of the warring sides. Once the starving, freezing and economic destruction hits a critical level, then nuclear exchange becomes more probable. Because neither side can surrender. This is existential in the minds of the decision makers on all sides. Anyone who thinks “cooler heads” will prevail is, in my humble opinion, smoking some high quality copium. Tell me who these cooler heads are. What amount of influence do they have? What amount of influence do they have in a red hot political situation with real world material ramifications? When in the past 60 or 70 years have these cooler heads prevailed?
Think about the Cuban missile crisis. It seems that Kennedy stood alone against an array of military and political hot heads. We were that close. Is Joe Biden = Kennedy? Now the Russian side. Can Putin just cave in and say it was all a big mistake and he’s sorry and withdraw all troops back to the pre-2022 Russian borders? Nope. Even if he wanted to, in order to save the world, he’d be doing it at the expense of Russia’s future and, believe it or not, Russia has its own hot heads that would oust Putin before he could give up.
Paulo Guerra says
I agree Eric. And it’s not today. I never saw how a direct US confrontation with Russia after WWII could end without nuclear weapons. Because as Eric says no one would accept defeat! So it’s not even worth thinking about the conventional equipment that the US will never send to Ukraine. In which I also agree with Eric that until today they sent mainly garbage. Except HIMARS and the M-777. But with ammunition it’s different. The US is simply not prepared for a high-intensity conflict because it never anticipated it. And we still had to think how the most modern equipment crossed the Atlantic at war with Russia with hypersonic missiles?!
So it’s not worth thinking about those weapons. Russia is not Iraq to sit idly by and wait for these weapons to reach Europe or Ukraine. No boats docked in Europe! So – as I said – I don’t believe in a conventional clash. Nuclear I believe. Especially with the new US first strike doctrine. It is very easy to manufacture a false flag as we are tired of seeing. So I think it’s possible with a low probability and it may even depend on some phenomenon exogenous to Ukraine. The attack by modified drones on strategic bomber bases could have already triggered a Russian nuclear response. That I believe will always do everything to never use nuclear weapons in Europe. Even more so on your border. But Ukraine couldn’t get the drones to the bases without the US! As I said, let’s hope it doesn’t go nuclear. As eager as Kiev is to involve everyone in the conflict. Thanks.
The US couldn’t ramp up production of N95 masks.
The US has gutted its production system, manufacturing support system, education system for STEM. It does produce more and more red tape, and is really good at printing press money.
Old machinists (I have two on my staff) are NOT being replaced by young machinists – the current generation just wants to tik tok their way to be an influencer – or equivalent social media BS.
Worse, the US largely can’t make the CNC machines anymore aside from not having the trained operators to ramp up production. Critical components are in ridiculous short supply – I CEO I know can’t source 10,000 specific o-rings (a few tens is not a problem), AirGas cant find mid size pressure tanks for six months – apparently, we can’t ramp up production of steel tanks (1930s technology) anymore. The supply chain / logistics network in the US is broken and starting to look late Soviet. I have seen estimates that 10% of the workforce is out with covid and long covid at any time (a growing number as the vaccines do their magic).
The titanic doesn’t turn on a time, and IF the US was serious (its not) about making stuff again, it would take decades of investment before there would be a payoff. Try talking Wall Street into the necessary low profits for a decade. Oh, Wall St shipped the US economy overseas. Just try voting against Black Rock or Goldman Sachs (or big pharma). Ain’t on the ballot and never will be.
Eric Newhill says
Interesting. Are supply chains and production really that bad? I don’t know. Outside my realm of practical knowledge. I know there are issues, but that deep and terminal? We are producing nothing that couldn’t be seized and converted to ordnance production?
Paulo Guerra says
And just to conclude, no World Order has been eternal until today of course. The transformations of the world happen purely and simply. But I don’t think anyone in the world would believe in such a rapid transformation. Even if we all had to accompany her. I think that the rest of the world has also evolved and, above all, is fed up with the arrogance and orders of the West with less than 20% of the world’s population! We! But nothing contributed to this acceleration of transformation as much as the conflict in Ukraine. Even today I see posters in Africa calling TIME’s man of the year a Nazi and I don’t see Russia ordering an advertising campaign in Africa. I think that purely and simply the rest of the world sees in the conflict in Ukraine what we see. Lies and more lies and everyone realizes that it was the enlargement of NATO that caused the conflict. And above all, they think that if they do what they do to Russia, such as sanctions and stealing reserves… In fact, OPEP went to great lengths to warn the US not to sanction Russia. In support of the truth even the IMF! It remains to be hoped that we do not reach any nuclear desperation. Because I also don’t believe that the US doesn’t give away the hegemony for free! And for my Europe burning coal again there are no words. Maiby suckers!
Eric Newhill says
The only constant is change itself. World orders come and go. That’s history. However, in history, no world order had a bunch of nuclear weapons that could destroy the world instantly. Possession of that power has convinced some people that they can force a perpetuation of their preferred world order. That power was supposed to be so frighting that it would instill caution and reason and cooperation, but we are past those days. We have a new, different and lower quality of leadership.
Paulo Guerra says
Agree. The only good thing is that they are divided. And the story goes that it was the very scientists who manufactured the first one who realized the danger of imbalance – probably with the example of Japan – and immediately tried to balance the world. And who paid the bill were the Rosenbergs. One of the most positive aspects of the USSR was this balance. Many people. The world got a lot more dangerous after 1990.
The only question for the US government is: Can Russia kill us, the well elected US government. I don’t think they want to die in WW3.
Of course they can try to hide. But it would probably mean that they would loose their power, try to survive in a bunker for a few years until nutrition had run out.
I don’t think they want this.
The only problem: Do they believe that Russia can strike them?
“…The US Navy would sail into position off the shores of Ukraine….”
And how exactly would the US navy enter the Black Sea, let alone get past Russian subs and other assets in the Med?
And how would they deal with Russian stand off missiles coming from the Caspian and elsewhere, beyond the reach of NATO defensive measures?
Simply not plausible, any enemy navy would be sitting ducks.
Eric Newhill says
Once again, just because it’s a bad idea doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be attempted. The US would just tell Russia that if they fire on the US Navy, it’s an act of war. The Russians wouldn’t have a choice. The approach of the US fleet would be considered, correctly, as an act of war by them. There is talk of the US’ ability to win a first strike nuclear confrontation. There is analysis that says Russia would back down when faced with the prospect of imminent nuclear war. Is there counter analysis? Yes, of course. Who is listening to which analysis. Which analytical camp is more persuasive? How persuadable is US leadership? Those are real questions to which we don’t have the answers. Look where we are now.
The Ukraine, with US help, no doubt, has now launched attacks into Russia targeting Russian staging bases. Those were probably experimental attacks to probe the effectiveness of the method used. Can Russia respond in kind? Not without kicking of WW3. But Russia went ahead and issued a statement (Putin did) that missile attacks into Russia will results in “100s” of Russian missiles hitting western targets. We’re already at the doorstep of Armeggedon. Did the US not realize what Russia’s response would be? Like I said, these things take on a life of their own and when they do, rationality goes out the window. Escalation is incremental, though the increments can advance very quickly. Decision makers begin to over-focus on the immediate increment and not on the likely culmination effect of the next four or five increments.
Steady Steve says
Way back then Putin thought he might be let into the “big club”. He went along at first until he realized the cabal intended to carve up Russia amongst themselves. From that point on he began preparing to disengage from the planned NWO while seeming to go along with it. Remember Hillary saying (after Russia invaded) that Putin would not be let back in to the NWO?
Korybko is wrong. There were objective signs that Putin was being duped long ago, namely building up of the defenses and armed forces. Those couldn’t have been missed. And oh, spies.
Another thing is 8 years ago Russia wasn’t ready to take on NATO in case the conflict escalated, which was quite likely.
Harlan Easley says
I went to google to hear how it sounded on audio and see if I could pronounce it. It literally has 8 vowels in it counting the final sounding y on the end which sounds like our e.
Any culture capable of producing words like this should not be underestimated.
CJ Daisley says
I don’t think one should take her ‘admission’ as truth without considering the possibility that she is fibbing. In Germany, she has come in for criticism of her policy towards Russia and has been defensive. The defense is that ‘in reality’ she was buying time for Ukraine. I doubt it. She is trying to protect her reputation or, in American jargon, ‘her legacy’.
If she had been double-dealing, it would have been at the behest of America.
Buying time… to militarize because Ukraine couldn’t win in 2015.
Yes, Russia could have defeated Ukraine’s military in 2015.
But… there may have been reasons for Russia to “buy time.”
While Russia could defeat Ukraine in 2015… could they withstand Nato involvement in 2015?
Would Russia have been able to withstand Washington’s blanket, world-wide, economic sanctions attack in 2015?
I don’t know… but it’s worth considering.
If that was so, then Putin doesn’t come off as the dupe of Angela Merkel.
Rather, he had his own calculations of what Russia was ready for in 2015.
And, it was not ready for a proxy war against Nato and a world-wide sanctions regime sponsored by the U. S. and supported by the E. U. in 2015.
(Nor the diplomatic isolation Russia would have faced… Russia’s diplomacy is much stronger, today, than it was in 2015.)
But now Russia is ready… the proof is evident.
I think Putin has known of the West’s intentions since the Second Chechen War, 1999-2000… [the CIA had a role] and has, himself, been buying time… in an indirect manner.
To rebuild Russia… and Putin with his fellow Russians have rebuilt it to an astonishing degree.
The rationalization of Russia’s economy & military since 2000 (Putin came to power in Dec. ’99) is almost as impressive , if not more so than China’s great leap forward of the 1990’s.
Why? Because the West was helping China (for self-interest) as opposed to wanting Russia to stumble, fall, and break apart.
Time has worked for Russia before and likely time & territorial depth will work for Russia again… Putin is a tough cookie… I doubt he has been deceived by the collective West.
The empire of lies. The great Satanic force in the world: The USA.
No way that data is correct.
There is no sacrifice too large..to keep Russia from banking oil/gas/raw materials in a gold backed Ruble.
These are some evil people we have in power now… a literal slug fest between good and evil. Between sodomy and family… pick a moral battle front… Like Zelman Partisans on the Biden proposed gun ban…
All they do is lie to us.
Larry: Yet another superb article from your website. Andrei Martyanov has a response to this article, which is accessible here:
He claims that the Russians knew all along that the Minsk Agreements were being openly violated.
My feeling is that the Russians waited until they knew that they had the rest of the world behind them, to start the assault on Ukraine.
Mondo Cane says
He claims that the Russians knew all along that the Minsk Agreements were being openly violated.
Of course they knew. We all knew. The question Russia had to contend with was whether a new administration(s), be it the US, Germany or France, might change course. After all, Minsk II WAS given UNSC blessing.
There was early hope in Trump, rudely dashed…then even murmerings from Biden, equally dashed and then some.
Martynov’s argument that they knew changes nothing.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
“Putin was lied to and fooled.”
But I’m assured by genius blowhard armchair general Martyanov that anyone who thinks Putin could possibly be fooled is, to quote:
Martyanov, of course, being the same character who insults and blocks anyone who disputes his asinine prognostications. Take that as you will.
Eric Newhill says
Martyanov surely is grating with his uncompromising and persistent Russian supermen and stupid Americans schtick. He gives me an instant headache. I can’t listen to his flapping jaw for more than maybe 20 seconds. In fact, I’ve stopped clicking on any links that go to him. Useless blowhard, IMO. Why does he live in the US if Russia is so 4D awesome?
That said, who knows if Putin was fooled, or not? You assess a situation, game it out, come to accept certain outcomes as some degree of probable and others as some degree of not probable and work from that. Meanwhile, the other side is inputting so as to throw your assessment off. garbage in/garbage out is a real challenge.
Then you put on a public face and make a speech that is aimed at achieving domestic and international goals. You may not believe a word of what you’re saying, you might believe some of it, or, perhaps, most of it, Depends. Meanwhile, behind closed doors, you work from models, assessments, etc. and you are faced with options bounded by the quality of the assessments, what is possible, what is not possible, etc.
I’m sure Putin is too smart to believe 100% anything or anyone. The assessments came up with what was deemed probable + what Russia could feasibly do about it and Putin worked from there. Maybe they got it right, but couldn’t respond in more optimal ways. Maybe the models/assessments got it wrong. Probably a combination. Heck, maybe Putin got it right and development an optimal feasible response. We’d discover that in time. However, the perfect anything is a rarity.
Spy world be crazy! says
Maybe Merkel is just saying whatever the Current Thing is (or appears to be), in an attempt to stay relevant. Though she never seemed IMO to be the kind to hang around the political fringes unendingly.
Sorry, I said this at the time. I assumed VVP was playing for time because it was actually the RF that didn’t have the military power or resources to overcome NATO at the beginning of this mess.
But this aside, anyone who’d believe anything at all USA and it’s toadies since 250 years of their history says otherwise should be the case, is stupid. Likewise anyone who’d believe Germany, or indeed the EU/UK, after their history of two world wars, and worst still, anyone who’d put a German in charge of anything at all, let’s say the WEF and the Google Alphabet given obvious history of arrogance, is crazy insane, still today.
If NATO won’t directly stick its nose into the conflict now because of fears of going nuclear, why would it not act the same in 2015?
Did Russia suddenly build its thousands of nukes during the last 8 years?
Whether the 2015 economy could have withstood sanctions is another matter.
Pardon. I said nothing about nukes.
+ NATO, ie the USA has been in this from the beginning, since before Vicky Nuland’s ‘fuck the EU’ zionist statement.
Your statement about sanctions and the economy is part of it, the rest is forming an alternate power block to the Empire. But imo the US will have to be defeated at home before it stops interfering everywhere for the money it makes. Too sad.
This is another war for the money, the longer it lasts the more money it makes – Trust nobody – follow the money
Last time I checked the US has military bases on German soil, so it would be folly to pretend that Germany, in the meantime, can make its own independent decisions.
American-occupied Germany could not prevent Europe from being drawn into an unnecessary confrontation arranged by the United States. The USA angered the phlegmatic bear, who didn’t want to attack the EU at all. On the contrary, the bear wanted to trade and cooperate with Europe. And Europe seemed to agree, because they received a lot of advantages from this cooperation.
Then America stepped up and said no.
Did I miss anything?
Last time I checked, England plotted WWI in an attempt to prevent Germany and Russia from forging an alliance that would’ve rivalled the British Empire. Gerry Docherty and James MacGregor wrote a book about it.
Would WWII have happened anyway had the English not raped Germany with the Treaty of Versailles after WWI? Was it not US-British financiers who supported Hitler as a pawn against Russia?
Carlton Meyer says
The meaning is “you can’t make an agreement with them and, even if you could, they’d break it”.
The Russians knew they could not trust the Neocon dominated American empire years before this agreement, as this short video explains.
In the conversation with the Mothers, Putin said: It was a big mistake that they did not immediately recognize Luhansk and Donetsk.
The Indian chief Sitting Bull said in the negotiations with the American government about the reservation: How can I negotiate and make an agreement with you, when everything you say is a lie. And indeed it is the eternal truth spoken by the Indian chief.
Casual Observer says
Modi is an Indian. Ghandi was an Indian. Sitting Bull was a Native American.
After Russia had taken Crimea, the EU stopped the export of food and agriculture to Russia. Russia in turn built up its own food supply, so Putin saw that sanctions didn’t hurt Russia, on the contrary, Russia was better afterwards.
Whatever was the real intention of Minsk agreement, Putin clearly saw that independence from the West is possible.
I am not sure whether he understood that this independence would mean that the West would be threatened to loose its world hegemony.
But this is happening now, and will lead to ww3.
Details of this ww3 I don’t know. But Russia must be aware of this. The West needs Saudi Arabia, needs China, needs India. But the West is loosing them.
Hal Duell says
From Korybko’s letter: “Chancellor Merkel’s candid admission that the Minsk peace process was just a ruse for strengthening Kiev’s offensive military capabilities.”
And so it went for eight years, eight long years for the residents of Donbass, until Ukraine thought it had sufficient military capabilities. Then Ukraine started acting out in January and February of this year. Russia took note and launched a Special Military Operation in late February with limited men and limited materiel and pretty much demolished those military capabilities.
It almost worked. Had BoJo not stepped in, the agreement reached in Istanbul in March/April could have ended this conflict. But, no, Zelensky was duped into thinking the collective west had his back, little realising that the collective west was using and abusing him like a rented mule. What a sad, little man he is!
I question if Putin was ever duped. If so, why build up Russia’s military capabilities? Why harden Russia’s economy to withstand concerted economic sanctions? Why make strong alliances with Asia?
And today? Before this started it could be argued that Putin was a Russian leader oriented toward Europe. Now he is a globally oriented Russian leader. In time this will be acknowledged, and Putin will receive global fame and global thanks.
And for Merkle? The ignominy of being seen as a German turncoat and a deceitful failure.
May be Germany’s national football team’s extra wokeness that led to its defeats and an early return home had something to do with Merkel’s sudden confessions. When a culture in this case western culture keeps advertising all the benefits of living in a world similar in essence to the historic land of Sodom and Gomorra, then obviously everything and everybody become not-agreement-capable.
Eric, I see your point, but as an American from Ukraine, I see both sides. In Ukraine now, it’s the 1930s with furher Zelensky and his Nazi goons suppressing normal Ukrainians, killing, robbing churches and monasteries. I have family and friends in Ukraine. Here, in the US, people are uneducated en-masse in world history, or even their own, and more/same brainwashed as we were in USSR. I see the complete bleeding out of Ukraine, as men borns in the 1990s, 1980s are now completely wiped out, the whole generation – gone. Who is to uprise there? But just like now in Ukraine they stopped putting the blue/yellow flag at each soldier’s grave for it’s terrifying to the the endless fields stretcged to the horizon of such flags, once the coffins begin arriving to US, the whispered questions would become louder and louder.
Rex Cramer says
About why Merkel put that to the open right now: that was another brick to the wall.
According to anglo-saxon foreign policy doctrine “heartland theory”, it must never come to some kind of partnership between Russia and Germany, or any other major european mainland country. Ideally it’s a hostile relationship like in cold war.
Merkel just made sure, that even when freezing european citizen possibly at one point may stand up and force their governments to come to terms with Russia, ending those idiot sanctions, Russians may then recall their treatment and all the lies and turn away for good.
Mission accomplished, then.
I never understood why that obnoxious critter Merkel ever had any positive reputation anywhere. She’s always been a notorious lier, nasty schemer and devious politician without ANY political vision.
Yup. Non agreement capable translates as liars and frauds in English. Western nations are liars and frauds.
It’s seems a nuclear strike by the US to take out Russian command centres so it can’t counterstrike is a real possibility.
The test run for this was the low flying drone that got way to far into Russia and hit a base without detection.
Nuland et. al will now push for US carriers in the indian ocean to launch low flying nukes to take out Russian command centres.
Don’t think more stupid and evil is possible. Just watch.
Russia has a real problem in that the West has no rules or boundaries.
Biological and nuclear strikes using low flying drones against Russia have a high chance of success. It’s doubtful Russia can produce enough detection and defence systems before the longer range strikes start next year as the West also loads up Ukraine’s with long range weapons systems.
Russia has not given the West any reason to stop or fear direct strikes back in retaliation. This will simply embolden the fools to take the next step and then it’s a different game.
Eric Newhill says
Exactly. The west has no rules or boundaries. Very bad chess playing by Russia. It’s like they are thick skulled simpleton dolts that are incapable of understanding that fact and/or of fighting back. The west must see the lack of effective response as evidence that Russia cannot defend itself. Why Russia can’t even defeat Ukraine. Obviously, they would be crushed by a war against Ukraine + NATO. I’m not entirely sure the west is wrong about that. To date, excuses of master 4D chess playing that I can’t even begin to comprehend aside (stupid American!), Russia sure looks weak and disorganized to me.
Russia has lost the propaganda war. They are not going to win it back by showing restraint and playing by some artificial rules that the west doesn’t follow. The west will never allow their populations to perceive Russia as righteous. One might argue that it’s China, India et al that need to see Russia as in the right and to side with Russia, but it is a huge gamble on Russia’s part that the BRICS nations would go all the way to war with the US to save Russia. Also, it is an admission that Russia is weak and cannot stand on its own as a world power. Maybe the gamble pays off for Russia. Ok. We’re still in WW3 with nukes.
One might argue that propaganda doesn’t count because it’s not “reality”. Well it does count. It’s how you control the perceptions and understandings of your population so you can take a situation in whatever direction you want to without political blowback; better yet, with willing enthusiasm from the people. The US and UK info machine could crank out stories tomorrow that would cause an already primed populace to go along with strikes against the Kremlin itself – or any other escalation.
Like I’ve been saying all along, the longer Russia screws around, the more the odds of the west doing something that really hurts Russia increase.
And here is the answer from Putin – Russia might decide to reconsider its nuclear stance and include a preemptive nuclear strike into Russia’s nuclear doctrine – Andrei Martynov covered it well – two can play this game.
Eric Newhill says
Sure, of course. Very predictable. Putin threatens massive retaliation. Now he is fixing his own position. It’s a “game” of brinkmanship – nuclear brinkmanship at that. That’s what I’ve been saying. This is headed to nuclear war BECAUSE NEITHER SIDE CAN BACKDOWN. The west cannot prevail militarily in Ukraine unless they begin to hit targets in Russia and disrupt or destroy staging areas there. So they have to hit those targets or lose. Russia cannot win in Ukraine unless it has those staging areas in Russia. This is a zero sum scenario. There are other facets of the conflict that are also zero sum – the whole thing is zero sum and perceived as existential. It will go nuclear unless a miracle of cooler heads prevailing occurs – or popular armed uprising that removes one or more of the governments involved happens soon – but I don’t see it.
We are in somewhat uncharted territory because this is the first peer to peer war in a long time and it involves “game changer” technology and resulting capabilities that create both military tactical and strategic complications never experienced before, or acceleration of classic military scenarios. All participants in the conflict are trying to adapt to the new reality, but adaptation on the fly is difficult and takes more time than available. There is an impulse to either buy time or scare the other side into submission via threats of nuclear exchange. Threats have a way of turning into real actions if viable alternatives are fail to come to the forefront. You tell me. What viable alternative to nuclear exchange exists given refusal of any participant to surrender?
A stalemate, acknowledged by both sides, is the viable alternative to nuclear exchange.
That’s how the Korean War ended 69 years ago.
Jim S says
Speculations on whether Mr Putin was duped or not are just that. Mr Korybko puts forth a well-constructed case, but it’s still speculation.
I will quibble with this: he cites Ms Merkel as saying “Putin could easily have overrun [Ukraine] at the time”, which may have been technically true, but another matter altogether logistically; furthermore, unless one believes the Russian Army was actively engaged in Donbass at the time, entry into Ukraine would have carried significant risk of escalating into a direct NATO-Russia conflict. This is the general situation today, of course, but Russia is much better positioned to manage that risk.
A separate question is whether the DPR/LPR would’ve been better advised to have crushed the UA in 2015. Purely from a humanitarian standpoint it might’ve been better to have slaughtered a part of those troops then rather than see most of them ground into dust 7 years later, but that’s hindsight speaking.
“What possessed her to admit this now? An upwelling of conscience? Arrogance – we’re Number One and always will be and we don’t give a damn what you think? You’d think after the catastrophe that that is hitting Ukraine and Europe because she (and others) ignored diplomacy and negotiation that she’d keep her mouth shut.”
Maybe she spoke especially to the Germans who still claim that Russia did not fulfill the obligations placed on it by the Minsk agreements. That is what MSM told us for years. Steinmeier, and Baerbock, and an assortment of active politicians still do.
In the case of Annalena Baerbock I suspect that she really doesn’t know any better. That she sincerely believes the lies she tells us about the Minsk agreements. It’s one thing to lie about something, it’s another to not know any better. Maybe Merkel is trying to enlighten her successors – especially since the lie serves no purpose any longer.
Merkel doesn’t have a conscience.
Rus Ivan)) says
The concepts of “honor” and “honesty” have long been absent from the politics and diplomacy of the West.
Remember the eve of World War II – Chamberlain’s “I brought you peace” and other hypocritical lies.
Words worthy of a swindler or a whore – they are mostly spoken by western politicians.
Look at these politicians – what is the meaning of their life?
serve their political sect.
As a rule, there are no children (Makron, Merkel) or the child is a bastard, a worthy descendant of his father …
Will such people serve their people?
Jim Christian l says
Merkel is a midwit dullard. Perfect for the top of Germany. The country was sold out in every way on her watch. They didn’t want Germany to prosper, only to lose. Same here with Biden and Blinken, they’re perfect for Nuland, idiotic foils that never say no to her ruinous depravity. Nuland may only be Deputy SecState, but I’d bet she’s running this from top to bottom. Her fingers have been in the US-Russian pie for nearly 17 years. With a hateful vengeance.
I don’t think it’s arrogance or hubris – The mood in Europe and the Anglo Saxon world is decidedly anti Russia and will continue for a long time into the future – Anyone past or present who’s perceived as being sympathetic or understanding of the East would risk being branded a collaborator or at worse , as an traitor – Merkel is trying to get ahead of the coming witch hunt to crucify all such collaborators when Russia wins the war by trying to out-macho the euro fanatics and Neo Nazis who will gain a upper hand – She’s telling lies about the intentions of the peace agreement now but she is being forced to follow poroshenko’s line because not doing that would be disastrous for her
Mercouris has said that Merkel may have said this in order to defend herself against accusations of being a Russia stooge – after all, the rise in dependence on Russian gas occurred under her term as did the building of NS1.
Being not-agreement-capable does not need to be based on one or two incidents; the fact of American not-agreement-capability has been demonstrated over and over again over the span of decades.
Was Putin fooled?
I don’t know, and it does not matter.
The (rest of the) world needed to be shown unambiguously.
Paulo Guerra says
Just two weeks ago Merkl gave an interview to Spiegel News saying that it tried to convene European negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine in the summer of 2021 with Macron and Putin but as it was at the end of its mandate it no longer had the political strength to carry out the negotiations and talk with Putin. And that she just didn’t try before because she was always too busy with other issues and broke her pelvic bone!!! Poor Mutti. At the time, it was a huge trauma for Mutti and for all Europeans. I still remember it well. Many didn’t even sleep and many others spent their days in the Churches praying for Mutti!
“But I didn’t have the power to get what I wanted,” she told Spiegel News.
“Really everyone knew: in the fall she would be gone,” she said.
And now this? I don’t even notice if it’s still the same interview with the normal UK ad spin or not?
Here many Americans probably don’t know Merkl very well but she was always like that. A dead fly that needed a psychologist to know where to put her hands in the photographs. Which is where Mutti’s most famous gesture was born, with that intertwining of fingers that left the Germans very relaxed. Which is all the Germans need from their Chancellor. Whoever blew up the gas pipelines only served to make them very tense!
So one of the two, this new devilish and very pragmatic Merkl who didn’t even know where to sit in a room with Putin is part of the same propaganda campaign as always for this conflict with some objective for now imperceptible – at least for me – or Merkl really doesn’t want to be associated with having contributed in some way to the military defeat. Which is also very typical of her after two or three months of reflection. And they’ve also been after the woman since February for her to apologize for Nord Stream II. Poor Merkl. But even considering his track record, coming to say that he premeditatedly misled Putin is a very bold statement for Merkl and impossible to be true. The statement and intent. What she may have said is that the Ukrainians are now better prepared and the spin doctors added the rest. Has anyone checked the translation yet? Or if that new interview in the space of two weeks realy exists or is it just a spin doctors addendum? I don’t have the patience to go around checking anglo propaganda anymore. Didn’t it come from MI6 in some English media like the BBC, Sky or the Telegraph who also warned us to be very attentive to Putin’s hands because of his 73rd cancer?
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
Here’s Putin himself today
In essence he’s saying we believed the Westerners but they lied to us. Trust has dropped to zero now, How can we ever negotiate with them again.
Paulo Guerra says
It was also good that we all started looking at Putin as a politician and not as God! He is a much better politician today than when he arrived in the Kremlin! Totally pro European and economically very neoliberal. It was necessary to see how the US destroyed many public companies in Russia and above all the first sanctions to correct a lot on an economic level.
Which only favors Russia of course. And a multipolar world. But just yesterday, did also link the power outage with the attack on the Crimean bridge?!! And how did Russia stop Ukrainian logistics? It was also good we didn’t lose our critical sense! Putin is a politician at war with the wider West. And wars are also won in hearts. Otherwise why the propaganda?
Putin has not been a politician when he – completely “accidentally” and against his will – arrived in Kremlin. I am not sure if it was bad or good – most likely the latter, otherwise he would have never been an honest but naive “political idiot” but rather an idealistic visionary that had no place playing dirty political games – like Merkel and Co.
In the last 20+ years he has learned some but he is still annoyingly slow and gentle with the rest of them in the west. Like in that joke about “how does one eat an elephant? – Slowly, piece by piece”. I wish he has been a bit more of a decisive pragmatist rather than dreaming his beautiful but – oh, so idealistic – dreams! Look what is happening around him in the rest of former Soviet republics? There are anti-Russian nazis everywhere, not just Ukraine! And what does he do? Lets them suck up Russian resources and subsidies he offers them without asking anything back!
Thee same way he lets his “best friend” Erdogan enrich himself on Russian account while providing weapons to Ukraine to fight Russians! Where is his logic? Is he nurturing another “best friend” (or friends) with whom he TRUSTS AGAIN that he shares his “multipolar vision” and who will betray him and his beloved nation as soon as they discover “the grass greener” anywhere else? It will be the Russian people to pay the price of this naivete and slow decision making 🙁
“He is a much better politician today than when he arrived in the Kremlin! Totally pro European and economically very neoliberal. ”
Thank you for your interpretation.
Eric Newhill says
Putin might just be playing the wronged victim card for sympathy. Or not.
J Brown says
Personally, I wonder whether Merkel’s statement is meant to drive a further wedge between Russia and Germany, which is highly sought by US/UK, rather than to honestly depict the actual intention of Minsk. I think the statement is meant to embarrass Putin, as well as ensure that the Germany/Russia alliance so feared by other western countries, will never happen.
Paulo Guerra says
Or just save skin. She is already retired. It doesn’t go back to the Chancellery. But in Germany they want her to apologize since February. Like Shroeder. Because of Russian gas. Countries when they lose their minds do that. Anyone who has done something well has to apologize. Now with acephalus like Habeck or Baerbock that leave the population to the cold, no problem.
Considering how every new chancellor is required to visit Washington upon taking office, it may not be off the mark even after all her efforts with e.g. Nord Stream 2.
Nonetheless I do appreciate your mention of the elephant in the room: the subjugation of Germany (and other European nations) by the USA and UK to prevent comity between them and Russia. I wonder how many others here have taken into account Germany’s non-sovereign (puppet-state) status based on its NATO membership and the presence of US military bases/personnel on its soil.
This was in response to J Brown’s comment (9 December 2022 at 14:02). Sorry!
Brian A Stark says
Я учился русский язык .. I studied the Russian language so I am able to use the Russian to English translator. So here we go ..
Split into two halves .. “no contract capable.” Problem here is the word order. In English syntax not able (to make) a contract. Its actually not that onerous
Google Translate renders the big word as “unable to negotiate”
“Google Translate renders the big word as “unable to negotiate”
Thereby illustrating that “translation” between languages is impossible as a function of framing including syntax and connotations; only interpretation is possible.
Hence ” AMERICA’S DIPLOMATS ARE NOT AS SMART AS THEY BELIEVE THEY ARE” since they could not negotiate their way through notices of intent by believing them to be ultimata.
Seems like they were more or less going to do the same thing again in Ankara. Tentative agreement, Putin pulls troops away from Kiev, Boris Johnson speaks to Zelensky, Zelensky pulls out.
I cannot imagine the sense of vindication this must give the hard-line Russian nationalists, the sort referred to by Andrey Raevsky (the Saker) as “Hurrah (battle cry) Patriots.” And what a piece to wave around to the rest of the world who might be on the fence about relations with Russia vs relations with NATO countries. Merkel just made Erdogan look like a boy scout.
With Merkel, it is always the case that her handlers tell her what to say and do. Now as before. So, why do they present this version of history now? Truly baffling, but yes, probably:
“We’re Number One and always will be and we don’t give a damn what you think.”
So, the CIA is pissed about failing again, maybe about having to let go of Bout, and their answer is, as always, tales and narrative about their own cleverness.
Sgt. Based says
Germany has never learned to be humbled
They thought the Balkans would bow to the Reich.
The French and British ripped them apart in WW1
Then the nazis came to power with their Aryan Ubermenschen myth
The Americans and Soviets raped them from both ends in WW2
And now here we are again, Germany thinks they run Europe, and that the US would somehow allow them to be an equal with an army of what, 100k men that hasn’t seen actual combat in 80 years? Yeah right.
Ever heard of NATO, whose purpose is to “keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down”? Is the USA not separated from the real hustle and bustle by two whole oceans? Is it not the USA that should learn to be humbled then?
Merkel was never particularly clever, it’s a false assumption in the western world that she was some elite politician on the international stage.. that old cow did more damage to Germany than the two last Chancellors combined.. so I don’t wonder at all that she didn’t think this through and probably still don’t understand the consequences this idiotic plan of theirs will have for the entire Europe.. these people are literally RETARDED..
Biking Viking says
Berlusconi was correct in his Merkel assessment years ago…
Blue Pilgrim says
There is a nasty, strong, tendency in the US for people to think in binary terms: is someone good or evil? gay or straight, strong or weak, black or white, without grays, uncertainy, or subtlety. In chess, a good player does not think of only one line of play but of many possible lines, and consioders alternative responses to moves in each.
Putin, of course, understood that the results of the agreement vould go many different ways, and considered the consequences of them all, both in terms of the hard situation, and the political, economic, and public relations implications and likelyhoods. This is like battle plans, preparing for various contingencies. He could hope the agreement would be implemented, and argue for it as the best resolution, while still preparing for its failure, building up Russian forces and economy for that possibility. Hopes and expectations do not limit planning for any eventuallity: I hope my house does not catch on fire, and don’t expect it, but I still carry an insurance policy.
“In chess, a good player does not think of only one line of play but of many possible lines, and consioders alternative responses to moves in each.”
Within a linear “paradigm”: within a closed system as a function of board and rules.
“This is like battle plans” of some but not all.
” Hopes and expectations do not limit planning for any eventuallity” except for some but not all.
“There is a nasty, strong, tendency in the US for people to think in binary terms” including crested binaries as in chess – ergo within a linear paradigm: within a closed system, that some hold to be “lateral progression” : an open system.