In the face of Western reports that Russia is on its heels and retreating, the facts on the ground tell a different story. For starters, Russian allies with embassies still operating in Kiev are shutting down and ordering their personnel to leave Ukraine. This includes China, Tajikistan, Krygyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkenistan,Serbia, Belarus, India and Egypt. Note that these embassies have remained open during the last seven months of the war with Russia. The decisions to cutback or cease operations is one indicator that these countries expect a major escalation in the war on the part of Russia in the near future.
Another piece of evidence that implies Russia is beefing up for a new offensive comes via Belarus. Russia is moving a large number of trucks, armored personnel carriers and tanks to Belarus. Take a look at these two videos.
NOTE–The vehicles in the next video are marked with new tactical sign–i.e., a white triangle with the number “2” inside the triangle.
You do not do this for vehicles that are going to be placed in defensive positions along the border with Ukraine. It is an additional indicator that Russia and Belarus may be planning to launch a combined operation from the north that will pose a direct threat to Kiev.
Belarussian officials are downplaying the buildup:
Belarus has deployed enlarged border detachments and mobile groups of territorial border service agencies to protect the border with Ukraine against the backdrop of increased intelligence activity on the Ukrainian side, said Anton Bychkovsky, official representative of the State Border Committee of the Republic of Belarus.https://t.me/intelslava/39316
While Russia is beefing up its forces in Belarus, the Supreme Russian Commander for military operations in Ukraine, General Surovikin, made the following comment in recent days:
I don’t want to sacrifice the lives of the Russian soldiers in a partisan war of hoards of fanatics armed by NATO.
We’ve got enough power and technical means to lead Ukraine to total capitulation.https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/11836
In other words, the General, knowing the capability of the forces under his command and knowing the missions he and his staff are planning for them, is confident he has the means to force the surrender of Ukraine. No mention of negotiations. The word, “capitulation” is not ambiguous in its meaning.
There is another possibility to entertain–this is an elaborate feint by Russia designed to force Ukraine to deploy already weakened forces to the northern border to defend against a possible invasion from the north. This will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Ukraine to send reinforcements to the south in a timely manner if Russia decides to launch an offensive to clear out the Donetsk Republic or attack Nikolayev.
All of this movement on the ground is taking place against developing political chaso in the West. The United States, under the leadership of the demented Joe Biden, has embarked on a foreign policy apparently designed to anger and offend ostensible allies. The Saudis find themselves being treated like lepers. According to Reuters:
US President Joe Biden will act “methodically” in deciding how to respond to Saudi Arabia due to oil production cuts, but options include changes in US security assistance, reports Reuters the words of White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. . . .
At the same time, the tension between the countries is growing strongly. Biden no longer intends to meet with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November.https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-will-act-methodically-re-evaluating-us-saudi-relationship-sullivan-2022-10-16/
The Saudis are not the only ones chafing at bullying from the United States. French officials also are voicing their unease:
Le Maire, who spoke on Monday while addressing the National Assembly, said, “The conflict in Ukraine must not end in American economic domination and a weakening of the EU.”https://t.me/azmilitary11/25583
The French finance minister Bruno Le Maire has warned that the United States should not be allowed to dominate the global energy market while the European Union suffers from the consequences of the conflict in Ukraine.
He described as unacceptable that Washington “sells its liquefied natural gas at four times the price than it sets for its own industrialists,” adding that “the economic weakening of Europe is not in anyone’s interest.”
Instead of Biden’s national security team trying to make friends and influence others, they are pursuing a policy of pissing off friends and goading enemies. Not exactly a recipe for success. The reality is that the United States is taking actions that are likely to isolate it from other countries as global economic conditions worsen and the war in Ukraine turns increasingly sour for NATO. I suspect that Russia is including this factor in its overall planning for defeating Ukraine and neutering NATO.
I have the distinct feeling that Russia is playing a game of cat and mouse.
We in the west live in a giant lie, the kind that has been elaborately spun for years now. Seemingly unlimited resources, seeming freedom, seemingly the most moral, the best, the most sensitive, the most politically correct, list goes on and on.
In the real world, Putin has been making friends and weapons some of which we have not seen before. He has been steadying the ship and running the country like a man while we in America have been served choices between dumb and dumber. The lie has become so big and so involved that it has now taken on a life of its own.
When the rubber meets the road, we will have to wake up and it ain’t gonna be purdy. I have been saying this since Feb 24 – we will end up on the outside, looking in and nobody is going to want to talk to us. Real lepers.
Kerry Noonan says
You nailed it ODDO – great comment.
Volker Schendel says
Yes – and the same is valid for Germany in Europe – Volker – Hannover (D)
No, Oddo, this is incorrect,
“steadying the ship and running the country
Not like a man. Wrong concept. Like a statesman.
Indeed, isn’t that the key difference? Putin, Xi, Ali, all run their countries like statesmen. There is an element of humanity in their decision-making plus the element of a wise governship for the benefit of the people — and for future humanity — that is implicit in the way they perform the duties of the office with which they have been entrusted.
Unlike here, where government is seized and transmuted and desecrated and exploited for personal gain and self-agrandisement. And their goals are achieved by subjugating innocents (i.e. all of the non”elite”) using the tools of acts of unsatiable greed, acts of pure heinous evil, acts of unbridled coercion, acts of sociopathic cruelty, acts of a gaslighted reality, acts of bribes & payoffs.
It’s about way more than just “being a man.” Indeed, upon a more careful inspection, one finds that there is something absolutely nonhuman about the way Nitwito is engaging against RU. Shockingly, they are now uniting to practice the tactics of nuclear warfare, all whilst knowing that they have their elite underground living quarters all set up and their aerofarms.com engineered veggies that grow with no sunlight, little soil.
The explanation of “nonhuman” as used here is given crisp delineation by the well-advertised agenda of the wef and is in no way captured by the concept ‘man.’
Cat & mouse is a perfect description.
I wondered, after I saw rumors of the embassies closing, if a big move is immanent…or if Russia’s allies were joining in a game of…maskarova?
Iirc, Lukashenko mentioned 2 days ago that the joint forces could take Kiev in 2-3 months.
Intent? Or maskarova? Hard to say…
As for the amount of delusion among our overlords in the West (the tech class) – look at the comments on the Elon Musk / Starlink story over at ArsTechnica: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/10/spacex-says-it-cant-keep-funding-starlink-in-ukraine-asks-pentagon-for-money/?comments=1
Calls to nationalize Starlink (all in a capitalist country), hate against the guy for even suggesting he should be paid for his services etc. etc. I have noticed a trend among the class of U.S. society that is/has been making the cushiest living for the last 20 years – software engineers/techies/IT people – they are ALL uniformly against Russia and pro Ukraine. What I cannot figure out is – why.
Alex Berg says
I think Vox Day would call them NPC’s. My experience, they believe what they are told by the media, as long they don’t have to pay out of their own pocket they are willing to believe anything. Including the long term safety of a non tested vax for a non fatal disease that (in some cases) even has had! 6/10 had the covid disease in 2020- early 2021, yet I was the only unvaxxaed, and no one cared to listen. And we are all programmers, so at least they can follow logic when they want to.
Alex Berg says
Sorry, correction :… non fatal disease that they even has been sick with (in some cases).
Nao vacile. Perdi 8. oito.!!
Not to draw you into a skirmish, but I am a “techhie” (engineer) and have been resolutely behind the RF, Putin, Lavrov and Zhakarova since Miss Piggy was passing out cookies in the Maidan.
To me, the divide is much more correlated with two things:
B. Party Affiliation
Regarding the latter: I am a recovering Democrat, having been driven-out by the queen of Benjamin, tho there is a pox on both their houses.
I am old enough to be an anti imperialist liberal, tho that particular label carries only horrid, woke baggage these days.
Sorry to take issue, but most STEM people can be swayed by logic. Not so much for party types.
Keep up your excellence!
but really says
While you analysis and conclusions are useful and intelligent they do not take into account all of the forces at play. In physics, if the forces identified do not account for the actions observed, it is to be concluded that another force must be present.
I suggest you read this book, “the Controversy of Zion”, by Douglas Reed. https://www.controversyofzion.info/Controversybook/reeedcontrov.pdf
If you extrapolate the behaviours Reed observes and documents into the present day it is not difficult to conclude that a small group of extremely rich and therefore powerful individuals are formenting chaos on a global scale in order to create the opportunity to present their pet solution, a global government with them in control. That group of individuals have in common an allegiance to a cult that is ancient and which holds the belief that its members are chosen to rule over all others and whatever means towards that end are required are fair game.Their end game seems to be a one world government with no sovereign nation states, with them controlling the one world government.
That hypothesis ties together the Covid genocide, The WEF nonsense, the insane military posturing from NATO, the manufactured decline in Western educational standards, the global warming lies, the big tech behaviour you just wrote about, and the apparent impunity of a certain shitty little state in the middle east. The evidence is out in the open for all to see, the trick is recognising it for what it is as apart of the larger picture.
The hypothesis is supported by far, far more than a single book, but that book was the crack in the rock through what was hidden could be seen in enough detail to give it form. Once the form was seen the evidence for its existence was much easier to identify.
Simple J. Malarkey says
US was the most ruthlessly propagandized country on earth until 2014 when even those gloves came off and its been a total unrestricted psyop since then…..
I really hope that the people from west wake up of this lying-age and start to act in order to change the current order and condemn the responsible exemplary.
When Americans became aware of the WMD lies pushed by DC and MSM they turned to alternate sources for their news. When Russia forces NATO backed Ukraine to unconditional surrender they once again will experience the lies of DC and MSM along with Western Europe more of the lies being told to them everyday.
With any luck this time the Empire of Lies and War will finally be exposed, and Larry and many others will be seen as true Patriots.
Thank you for all the truth telling you do.
Mike D. says
Biden will never admit a defeat. Everything is spun.
40% of US is with him.
I think it’s the same over here in the UK
Biden and his vassals from EU dug a deep hole and can stop digging, otherwise they will prove their weakness to the world. As long as this madness continues, deeper is the hole and the desperation of the imperialist.
Hi Larry. It looks a lot to me like the Ukraine front is ready for the final act, with the US pretty much admitting it doesn’t have the means to prevent Russia from achieving whatever it sets out to do. So NATO will froth and fume, to little avail, and Russia will simply wipe the floor at a time of its choosing.
In another field of conflict, I’d be interested in your take on what appears to me as the first really serious shot fired in by the US in its plans to confront China: https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/chinas-semiconductor-industry-rocked-by-us-export-controls/news-story/a5b46fb3cfd2651be23a549c38b3e2d6
The timing, coinciding with the CPC congress meeting, couldn’t be more deliberately designed to get a response. If China can no longer source it’s semiconductors from the US or via US companies then the only place at hand has to be Taiwan. It’s either that or throw in the towel. Look forward to your assessment.
I’ve seen some talk about this. However, this scenario is predicated on the idea that US personnel are essential to operating Chinese chip manufacturing. If that proves to be wrong, and Chinese can start operating the equipment in a reasonable time frame, the invasion of Taiwan is not such an urgent matter. It’s not as if the Americans leaving China are stuffing their pockets with the machinery on the way out.
The idea that Russia was dependent on US technology and capital investment, or even financial instruments, has proven to be wrong. The idea that China intellectually and technologically weak may be just as wrong. We’ll see.
what if the us personal just don’t care, and are actually chinaeese dual nationals. some indications where that tsmc’s new fabs are not at 100% up to 3 5nm plants where idle.
They have taken a huge gamble on chips, but with a depression coming this might literally destroy them as a company because of debt.. what other industries does Taiwan have to keep them financially stable? I don’t know of many industries. they used to make bicycles, but all the high tech assembly is taking place in china on the mainland.
To make these boards and allow the chips to be useful there are thousands of other items needed that are made only in china and utilize rare materials sourced only from china and Russia..
Charlene Rochards says
In the meantime, our genius “representatives” in Congress have made sure that ALL essential medications the US public might need for survival (like Tylenol, broad spectrum antibiotics, analgesics etc. are all made in China or other foreign countries.
If I were President the first thing I would do would be to pull together all the necessary players in numerous fields to figure out what the US population NEEDS for survival: What medications must be made in the US that are essential? Needs for energy? Housing? Infrastructure projects? School restructuring? Tech needs? Non-GMO foods and livestock production? Hurricanes and tornado preparations? Levy and damn projects? Mass transit train projects bringing all major cities together for goods and travel. Every county in this country will need to connected to rail for movement of people and goods. This Liz is just a start. There is serious work to be done which will create millions of good paying jobs leading to a higher standard of life for everyone.
Make America Great and lwe wish the other countries well. Of course I predicate all this on culturally taking us back to the 1980’s when folks got along and wanted to work together especially to get back to the 3 R’s, shop classes and Home Economics, history with lop the truth with welcomed debates: who killed JFK and Bobby Kennedy and Malcolm X and Martin Luther King? What really happened on 9/11, who was behind it and why? Studying real history and ditching the woke CRT and all the insane cultish sexual programs related
To trans hormone treatments and threatened programs which would need to be criminalized and ended so to do no har
Right now we are sitting on a major government scandal with COVID that teenagers would understand if taught the fact.
Greatness while we
Still have the power to straighten our collective ship.0
From something I saw about a high speed rail project in California, my understanding is that the biggest difficulty is securing and purchasing the land for a rail corridor. Armies of lawyers, accountants and billions of dollars…
The Chinese don’t have this problem and hence have built the world’s most extensive high speed rail network. It’s unlikely that any US President or Congress would have the power to change land ownership/compulsory purchase laws as my understanding is these powers are vested in the States.
Other than that, nice wish list and good luck in your run for President. Were I eligible, you’d get my vote 🙂
Marielle Redclaw says
The “high speed” rail in California was never anything more than a money laundering scheme for politically connected people. Anything else reported is propaganda.
From having lived in Cali during the “high speed” days… I can assure you, it was never anything but a grift. They soaked Fed $$ & State $$, with Zero intention of ever building the thing. Everyone got payouts, $$ got grifted, then they rolled up “the project”. But think about it… who would of picked and funded a high speed rail project in the exact most earthquake prone part of the US? Was never meant to break ground, just launder money. The “difference” between China & US isn’t “regulation”… it’s how they deal with fraud & corruption. That’s why things actually get built in China.
“If I were President the first thing I would do would be to pull together all the necessary players in numerous fields to figure out what the US population NEEDS for survival:”
If you had been Presidnet of Russia it is what you would have done eight years ago or even twenty years ago.
Qolotlh Kernow says
You are spot on. 🙂
Stefan G says
Here in Germany it was allways a doctrine of the state to be able to produce as many things as possible to assure the survival of the population and so all nessecery for the survival of the german state. This was a lesson from the 30-year war (1618 to 1648) and WWI and WWII.
Somehow we got this political entity called the green party, which made the plan to change the entire energy production of germany, while relying on russian gas for the massive changes to work. Which they “choose” not to want anymore.
I ask myself how one could forget the lessons from history.
So in germany it seems, that the politicians planned not to plan for our survival.
God help us
Very good observations. Everything I’ve read and seen seems to indicate that Ukraine is badly worn down while Russia is building up. The next few weeks may be boring as Russia is patient in its build-up but at some point in November this thing may break wide open.
maybe after the midterms
Very clearly, Germany (EU) is paying Russia to remove the USA (NATO) from Europe.
Russia has been able to demonstrate its weapons of war, and many countries will become ‘friends’ of Russia now.
By the 8th round of sanctions? Once the current leadership is swept from power, you are likely right; however, do you really believe the US would not coup Germany in order to save democracy?
Do you think Bolton’s comment about invading the Hague if any soldiers were brought there was idle?
Do you recall the statement “f-ck the EU” by Nuland?
Ain’t happening prior to a US economic (dollar) collapse, which will collapse the euro five times worse. Sorry.
Hello, first time commenter.
Well, as I recall, regarding euro, in contrary to all other eurozone countries, only Germany didn’t destroyed Deutche mark bills and coins but stocked them in some warehouse.
So, Germany is ready to, in a dire momment, dump Euro and return to DEM and save it’s economy…
In that scenario, that could only be hatched in the minds of mentally malevolent and deprived degenerates, US forces would be taking hits from all sides in Europe. Patriotic partisan groups would spring up everywhere and the remaining soldiers in the European militaries would jump ship and fight with the partisans. It would be a slaughter of US LBGTQ farces, oh I meant forces!! In the end, the Russians and their allies would then come in a mop up situation and the US would be reduced to a second-third-rate power staying on the other side of the pond for good.
Perhaps, or, with plausible deniability, new compromised leaders will be installed who will continue against the public will. Consider Zelensky – the peace candidate – and how that worked out.
Either (as in the Philippines) millions shut down the economy and the business / aristocratic community demand change, or (as I maintain history shows) things will just mumble along – possibly into civil war (again look at European history). That would give the leaders (new or existing) the support (or fear) to represent their people’s interests.
Divide and conquer worked for Rome and it still works.
Karman Ghia says
ISL, I agree to everything you wrote, bar one: US Americans tend to to believe that a dying dollar would necessarily drag the Euro with it. Well, it may look like that. But in fact, all central banks of european countries have huge stocks of freshly printed national currency, and will with a snap replace the Euro with their former national currencies again, should the Euro ever tank. Also, Europe is very diverse industrially. Unlike the USA, Europe could by and large supply their own needs completely on their own, as soon as the spigots of russian gas and oil would open up again. And rest assured, they will, once the USA will have undocked from Europe, and will sail back to their crumbling shores. But behind the scenes, where nobody is looking, contingency preparations for Europe – without the neocon bureaucratic monster called EU, of course – are permanently going on already.
Fortified City says
Biden is gonna help Russia sell more military equipment Biden is considering cancelling US military hardware to Saudi Arabia.
Stefan G says
I did not have that thougt, but it ist interesting. Because the german parliament decidet just a few weeks ago not to vote on the matter of sending 200 battle tanks to Ukraine. Instead there was only a discussion. And there seems to be no attempt to bring the vote back on in the near future.
For your line of thinking that would make perfect sense.
Pintor Boa says
The threat is stronger than the execution, for one must always be prepared for the threat to become manifest and dedicate resources to repel that which has not yet occurred. Encouraging a deleterious state of readiness is itself a crippling strike against an adversary. Russia understands this concept well and is employing it masterfully. Ukraine will collapse under its own weight. It is only a matter of time.
It’s all over in November, done and dusted by Christmas.
US + Petro dollar. This issue was planned and contingency moves put in place well by all the “big table participants,”well before the Feb kick off. This is the reason why Putin kept his powder dry for 8 years.
I can see all of this happening. Syrian “US oil field theft site,” just hit by numerous rockets.
The Taiwanese military stages a coup. Everyone keeps their job plus a golden handshake on receiving their new uniform. No one wants to see their island and homes devastated for a dead empire walking. When their mother land is to become the riches country in history of the world. Go figure.
Biden just shafted the Chinese chip industry. That’s a no no.
Larry could you give us your thoughts on the new big picture developments in China linking Russia and China and chips.
Link to follow.
Man, I wish I had a dollar for every wrong forecast of when this war would be over.
If I am wrong l’ll be happy to send your well won dollar.
America and like minded fellow bankrupts accustomed to free money don’t make good grunts. After the midterms (if not stolen) chances of no more free weapons, cash, subsidies, bribes and helicopter free US tax bucks sprinkled over Uki cities may stop at the close of the voting booths. No more Ukis.
But then again l have a 50/50 chance of losing another dollar. Gold Silver or well worn brass ? I’m thinking “No Class Brass “ & 10% for the big guy.
The Democrats are ready to dump Brandon, cancel the Cameltoe and put old eyebrows in an ice freezer. Get another deadbeat in the speakers chair shuffle the deck & annotate a new Presidential perSon.
Just gotta win the mid terms , beat Russia, conquer Moscow, invade China, whoop the ass of SaudiPrince, while the Fed saves the dollar, saves the pensions and saves the economy and saves America from the Fed.
It’s all dooooabull , just sayin.
Volker Schendel says
I think, the Duran (Alexander) yesterday is right in the Analysis of Putins Press Conference in Astana. – If there will be no Ukraine State it might take longer than Spring 2023
How many times have we heard the claims “it’ll all be over by Christmas”?
C’mon man! Has Santa Claus ever brought military victory or a peace treaty for Christmas?
One needs to beware that one’s hope for a swift end to this conflict doesn’t become a delusion. Irrespective of which side one prefers, the facts are that the Ukrainian boots on the ground, be they Nasties or otherwise, have put up a stalwart defense against a formidable foe. I don’t see any evidence that this will change any time soon.
One doesn’t need to be Nostradamus to foresee a Russian winter campaign. But with each breakthrough so far, the grand tactical arrows on the maps of armchair strategists showing the impending collapse have failed to materialise.
Re my previous post on China chips
Your videos are not responding.
Larry Johnson says
Where are you located? They play for me and others.
Central PA, no problem here. Keep up the Great Work, Larry!
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Not playing for me either.
Rumble embeds are weird. Try disabling your ad blocker, opening in incognito mode, or using a different browser. Also you could try right clicking the video and look for a link in the or tag. Open that in a new window and it should play directly.
try whitelisting rumble in ur adblock or check your cookie settings.
Pym of Nantucket says
If I go with the assumption that large strategic organizations in the US cannot be complete fools, I have come to the conclusion that planners hoped sanctions against Russia would work, and if not (which is the case), the US must retreat to the Americas and burn the fields as it leaves. This looks like holding on to what they can, while the rest scorched earth.
The strong dollar trick is the departing gift. It looks like Oceania from 1984.
Marcos aguilera says
Hello Larry. Do you think that Russia can concentrate all its new reserves and equipment at its starting points to launch an offensive before November 8? Do you think that if this happened, it would have a negative result for the Democrats in the next elections? Greetings.
The strong dollar and rising US interest rates create a problem though. Most of the developing world’s debt is denominated in dollars and the interest is tied to the fed rate. So this creates a second order issue of debt defaults all over the world which really don’t help the US in terms of geopolitics since the main lever of US power is lending money.
Elensky sounds like he is having a Harold moment before the Battle of Hastings. I don’t comment on here that much because I am just a layman learning from your experience in the field, thank you Larry.
I’m curious what Russian policy will be towards oligarch property, both in the newly reintegrated oblasts and whatever conditions they might impose on Ukraine after an unconditional surrender. It would be an act of kindness to nationalize everything belonging to the oligarchs and return it in some form to local control and ownership. Certainly the oligarchs who have funded neo-nazi formations should be stripped of citizenship and property. Has anyone seen anything on this issue?
This links to an article about confiscation of land ..
First video horrible music. Muted. Next videos you are providing will likewise be muted before opening them. Jus’ sayin’.
Exactly right. Had to hastily mute that one, but not quickly enough for entire household to react “what are you listening to!?”
My Comment says
Europeans don’t have a choice but to let America ransack the EU. Not only do a growing number of Europeans want to destroy their own economies to honor Mother Gaia, Europeans want to be seen a good people and the US media ultimately controls how being a good person is defined. For Europe to rebel a cultural revolution is first required that would necessitate Europeans being willing to be called far right. I just don’t see that happening for at least a generation especially with women having the right to vote.
Why is the Right always far?
Personally, I’ll settle for being Near Right rather than Completely Wrong, or worse, Left Out.
As for women’s voting trends (and the “experts” cannot define a woman these days), it seems to me there are plenty of the female persuasion attending demonstrations against the ongoing destruction of European civilisation, and even more who would vote for any party with a plan to lower gas and food prices.
You know, Clinton nailed it when he said “It’s the economy, stupid”.
It’s the ‘Overton Window’ in action. The Window (which frames what is considered to be ‘acceptable discourse’) has moved steadily leftward since at least the 1960s. Mass media, higher ed (if you can call it that) and governments have all worked assiduously to ensure that what were once radical far-Left notions are now ‘mainstream’, and what were once widely-accepted conservative notions such as ‘strong property rights’, ‘freedom of speech’, and ‘limited government’ are now somehow ‘far right’–meaning, of course, ‘fascist’.
I won’t discuss overmuch the fact that ‘fascism’ itself is not, and never has been, a ‘conservative’ ideology.
“Why is the Right always far? Personally, I’ll settle for being Near Right rather than Completely Wrong, or worse, Left Out.”
Laugh for the day – and we can always use those. Thanks.
In war, it is hard to infer “intent” — although many try, notably Scott Ritter. The results of any action are a better indicator. The movement of Russian forces to Belarus have two effects. One is to warn off the Poles and others from trying to seize not just “the moment” but chunks of the Ukraine — or Belarus. As a launchpad for a possible operations –the RF forces are a warning. At the same time, the UAF must divert forces to the North. That said, the Ukraine is a pretty large country. My guess is that the Russians will wait until they are ready, in a month or two. Frozen ground, lack of tree-cover for UAF forces, and so on all make ideal conditions for offensive operations. The UAF has fortified towns and villages — what I have called a “Maginot Grid”–following American strategy–as a way of securing territory. The RF can deal with those positions with direct engagement, just by cutting off their supplies. Treating NATO troops as “mercenaries” denies them legal protections as POWs. I wouldn’t want to be a mercenary in such a situation and end up digging ditches in Siberia for the rest of my life. .
Stefan G says
If there is any army in the world that knows to fight a war in winter, it is the russian army.
Le Maire for Count Durnovo?
A fresh breath of life to “Durnovo Memorandum” Durnovo take two:
“A summary of the foregoing should lead us to the conclusion that rapprochement with AUKUS/NATO is of no use to us and that the AUKUS/NATO orientation of diplomacy is fundamentally wrong.
We do not follow the same path as AUKUS/NATO ; AUKUS/NATO must go its own way and not clash with Russia and China on its behalf.
AUKUS/NATO is an artificial combination with no real basis of interest. There is nothing to look forward to.
The future belongs to a close and incomparably vital convergence of Germany, France, Russia and China.
Such a political combination devoid of all aggression towards other states, the global south and eurasia, which is threatened not by the militant intentions of Russia, as AUKUS diplomacy tries to show, but by AUKUS’ willingness to retain its waning dominance in the seas and in the economic sphere at all costs, and as a corollary of this. will preserve the peace of their nations for many years to come.
We must concentrate all the efforts of our diplomacy in this direction, not in seeking a fruitless basis for an agreement with AUKUS/NATO, which by its very nature is contrary to our national plans and goals.
Bukko Boomeranger says
It’s such a damn shame that all that heavy metal has been cast to make machines to blow stuff up and kill people. Humanity would have been better off if those trains were carrying grain harvesters and farm trucks instead of tanks. But “such is life” (supposed last words of Australian folk hero Ned Kelly, a “bush ranger” i.e. highway robber, from the 1850s who fashioned a suit of armour for his holdups using old cooking pots.) Or better yet, “such is death.” Funny how there are no similar videos of Ukrainian supply trains schlepping NATO weapons to the front, eh? And as media-centric as the Ukronazi war effort is, you KNOW they’d be putting them out there if they had anything like that. Or if they had an operative rail system that wasn’t in fear of being obliterated from the air…
Just for info- Earlier in the year I was shewn video of self propelled field gun transporters in an Iron Curtain country by the sea. (Same as tank type transporters). They were taking (many, many) Self Prop Guns to support the Uckranians on motorways.
Larry, good questions. If a Russian northwards maskirovka is designed to force Ukraine to retrieve troops northwards to protect Kiev, I think it needs to happen now (before winter) when logistics (including fuel) will become much harder – so the timing supports a feint.
I do not see much benefit in attacking Kiev at this point – my nickel is on Odessa which would have a much larger strategic value. Apparently, Russia has with Bakhmut developed strategies to prevent Ukrainian forces from burrowing into extremely well fortified industrial centers.
WRT the Biden administration, the flailing suggests to me that there are multiple power centers pursuing their own, contradictory, and inconsistent, foreign policies.
“The goal of foreign relations remained the same whether they were violent or diplomatic. The goal was always to assert imperial supremacy, but the pressure on resources led to more of a focus on strategic diplomatic relations in order to avoid war (Humphries 246). They still wanted to display their dominance and supremacy, but it couldn’t always be done with war anymore, so diplomacy was necessary. They started to take advantage of enemy weakness and division through diplomacy. One new strategy was to use kidnapping and murder to secure strategic advantages.”
Think Soleimani – what was the US benefit? or the Nordstream bombing that missed – inspiring more Turkstream. Though, late Rome administration was not dysfunctional (though corrupt, suffering from inflation, deteriorating trade – the ole’ Thucydides trap).
Jim Christian says
Nah Larry, all this points to Russia taking the rest of the Black Sea Coast, leaving behind the ‘rump’. They’ll secure Trinisteria, de-Nazify the rest. Early on, be it you Larry, Martyanov, Gonzalo (?), now gone again, posited that Russia didn’t want the socially depraved Kiev, didn’t want the west of Ukraine. Too westernized, too sick and feminist, too ruined, anti-Christian, too-everything wrecked as societies. That leaves the rump NW, sans Black Sea/Azov Sea coastlines.
Stunning still, the rail lines and all the gear these folks are moving for many weeks now, all of it looking factory-fresh and fit as a fiddle. I sincerely hope the wiser heads in NATO and the U.S. don’t throw our veterans into this. Standing against Russia’s goals (which did not have to happen to begin with) is a sick thing. This deal is lost to the Americans, as are all the ventures. Jesus, what a mess. What a fucking mess. So unnecessary. Shame there isn’t some way to make the Western creeps pay for what’s been unleashed. And for what? A few bucks.
Who’s ready for round 2? https://youtu.be/ohdhaVBYMRo?t=12
Sonic boom: https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-o7Zr2gZDdcQ/WttHwj57TuI/AAAAAAABjlI/X54U_JOP3kIsGO89USBNMYrlh8ZNIKtCgCLcBGAs/s1600/x4j63R33YfA.jpg
Nice sax solo
pineo man says
I think the main objective will be to surround Kiev. Decapitate the snake, and force a relatively quick and hassle free, general capitulation.
No need to fight it out in the grand old city street by street, either. Just open a couple of those world famous human corridors, and then siege it, in a similar fashion to say, the German seige of Paris in 1870.
And if it takes 2 or 3 months, so be it.
Wouldn’t that be something?
I often wonder what ever happened to The Column to the west of Kiev. I have hard time believing that the massive thing simply packed up and made some circuitous redeployment to the contact line down way down south. If it did, it sure was a helluva a long way to go to not engage in battle, because everything I’ve seen outside of this Kherson business, is that the Donbass militias, Waggoner and the Chenchens have done all the fighting and dying on the contact line.
Maybe The Column simply withdrew, has has been hanging out up north all along.
So, the Russians do the same thing they did – to a great degree of success – in the beginning, and drive past Sumy and Kharkov on their way to the eastern suburbs of Kiev, and The Column, much Nancy Pelosi’s dismay (!), reappears to west of Kiev, only this time, the two pincer elements are each five to sixth times the strength of their forebearers, and they actually lock the city and its suburbs up nice and tight.
Everywhere else they go on the defensive. That’s what all digging equipment I’ve been seeing might be all about.* Except for directly in front of the city of Donetsk. The ground in front of it will be taken, because it has to be taken. The fact that the city is still getting shelled 8 months into an SMO that was specifically designed to put an end to it, is quite frankly, embarrassing.
And Odessa and other concessions will be won (without a shot being fired) during the seige negotiations, and that’s that.
*The digging equipment might be needed for the seige as well. Maybe the Russians will pull a Julius Caesar during the Battle of Alesia, and build dual lined fortifications. I don’t think such an extravagance will be necessary, but better safe than sorry they always say.
Top Gum says
You are aware what western MSM would do with a siege? They lied about so many things already, they only waiting for something new to put more fake atrocities towards Russia’s efforts.
Russia has demilitarized Ukraine around week 4 already. The continuous shelling is all blood on US/EU’s hands, as it was them who gave longer range weapons to Ukie terrorists.
They will pay for that. This whole mess is just getting started for them. The whole EU will be flooded with ungreatful Ukrainian people and will be a big source of problems, especially when EU is paying dearly for little bit energy resources they can get their hands on. This will get more uglier the harder the coming winter will be.
“You are aware what western MSM would do with a siege?”
I think so. A seige of Kiev would undoubtedly drive the insanity levels of the American media up to eleven, and if you are like me, and are based in the US, the noise and nonsense that presently emanates from these globalist corporate mouthpieces would become insufferable, not that it isn’t already.
I could be entirely wrong about the seige strategy, or I could be right or partially right, who knows, but either way, here is more evidence that Belerus is in fact serious; they want to be on the kill in whatever form it eventually takes.
Like Mussolini in 1940 perhaps, sneaking in there at the last minute and declaring war on France, long after Werhmacht blitzkreig operations had sealed the deal, so he could claim a victory of a sort when the final end came, and share in at least some of the spoils?
You are spot-on. I recall the original refugee crisis in 2021 with mere thousands of refugees on the Belarus-Polish border and my initial thought was “this is a dress rehearsal.” I think Putin intends to create a panic and a stampede to the West. Always have.
I have cross-posted this post on my Substack page with commentary.
Black Cloud says
The capitulation of Ukraine is a fait a accompli. The real question is what happens next.
Europe needs to be demilitarized and denazified, which means the end of NATO and the EU. Then there is the US …
In order to demilitarize and denazifiy the EU, the Washington War Party would FIRST need to be overthrown or collapse. Reflect on the implications of that.
If that really is the goal of 87% of the world – then we are in for a very long global struggle.
Black Cloud says
Europe can turn its back on the US. It won’t be fast or easy considering just how far the US is up Europe’s ass. But this is the hope I think, that the US can be defeated economically without resorting to WWIII.
To paraphrase Ray McGovern: Does Washington have any adults in the room at all?
OK i’ll bite, was completely wrong on the last one, but the build up in the north did take place.
Its both a feint and the real thing in Belarus, putting a sizeable force there, (allegedly only 9k Russians) and 100-200k belarussians puts a tremendous amount of counterweight pressure on Ukraine, you can already see them stressing, they don’t have the man power or weaponry left to defend or attack on 2 fronts separated by 1000km’s.
Belarus has older weapons and possibly was not trained to a high standard, im sure trainers and specialists are getting them caught up with as much as they can, it sounded like they where prearranging a defensive position towards Ukraine and Poland, which is smart, but at the same time positioning aggressive weapons capable of striking 2-300km deep into Ukraine.
with the latest revelation that the new S300 shot down 2 low flying s27 and s25 in the south at a range of over 200 km’s, this creates a large defensive sphere to defend inside Belarus and cover a fair distance into neighboring countries.
I don’t know if anything will head south again, but the threat is real enough for Ukraine to draw troops away from other sectors.
It’s been awhile since any one sieged a city with a double lined defense with ditching and trenching equipment. perhaps its possible to cut logistical lines off and ditch through the road preventing any Armour from moving in due to mud or lack of routes? all these Ukrainian videos on yt kept turning up saying there new thunder run doctrine was devastating Russian forces. these conveys might have worked in Iraq on a heavily demilitarized enemy, but up against artillery and air power with point defense the videos speak for themselves of there effectiveness.
I suspect a combination of taking territory that has strategic value and good natural defensive boundaries such as swamp land, rivers and lakes, that make the defensive position easier for Russia will be primary targets
The “thunder run!” Lmao … I had a couple of those type vids show up on my YouTube feed but I didn’t click on em.
I figured they were about some new technique for subduing undefended cow pasteur more rapidly than was previously thought possible, but apparently they are actually claiming these “thunder runs” are slicing and dicing their way through Russian defenses as if they were Swiss cheese?
Oh what a reckoning is coming for the West, and for whatever is left of the UkoMercenary forces on the field of battle. If the Russians hold at present a 10 to 1 advantage in rates of artillery and rocket fire, based on what I’ve seen on those incoming Russian trains, it is soon to be 50 to 1, or possibly much, much more.
Hell, the Russians haven’t seen the need to to use their Tos 1 Flamethrowers yet. Not really. 4 salvos is all I’ve seen so far, and those were probably just exercises in testing the system in combat conditions.
They are land based B-52s, is what they are. If the Russians want to torch the enemy in a certain locale and roll over them, they can anytime they want.
But the more I think about it, the more I think the Russians will surround Kiev and beseige it. No need to carry out Deep Battle like offensives in the shivering cold, when you can sit cozy and warm in entrechned postions and blast and starve your opponent into submission from afar.
Alexander Mercouris is thinking along the same line.
He also found it odd, as did I, that President Putin left unclear to the Russian media at the Astana press conference, what his intentions are regarding Ukraine as far as its continued existence is concerned.
There was a profound interchange that took place between a Russian reporter and Vladimir Putin at that press conference. The question the reporter asked was, “will Ukraine cease to exist as a nation? Will Russia?”
So, the decision whether Ukraine will cease to exist is solely in Putin’s hands at this point. This is a given, as far as the reporter was concerned. But the second part, about the continued existence of Russia, is obviously a question no Russian can answer.
Not even their President. That is why he did not even try.
The US-UK and their NATO vassal are doing what they do best. They are turning to terrorism. Something they are consummate at. They are going tit-for-tat with Russia to full escalation using terrorist tactics.
since all of biddens policies have been negative for us , conour versly, positive for china. they are open borders, crashing economy, crime and wokism. is it posible he is not as inept as he apears? rather we have a chinese stooge in the white house. has not olllur president been the recipient of millions of $ throwout his career?
Well I think they will go for “total capitulation”.
Be careful with them selfie’s folks!
Tough situation for sure. I have heard that NATO has been shipping a lot of supplies into Poland and a good amount of military build up is happening around Brest Belarus. Anyone else heard of this?
Russia looks almost set to completely demilitarize Ukraine. Is a complete loss in Ukraine the end of the U.S. lead Empire? At least economically? Is this loss of world power acceptable when there are still many military options across different theatres of operation as well as the European one?
What are the military options for NATO in Ukraine? Could NATO attack from neighboring countries with conventional weapons and not risk a nuclear war? Would a tactical strike necessarily lead to a complete nuclear war? Is a total nuclear exchange survivable for either NATO/U.S. or Russia?
There are so many questions for me. One thing I do know is that power is rarely relinquished voluntarily. I believe the so called deep state will either prevail or destroy the world rather than give up its power. So be it.
“Could NATO attack from neighboring countries with conventional weapons and not risk a nuclear war?”
yes there is a risk, but Russian retaliation would be conventional – per video, the supply is unlimited (see article industrial warfare – NATO de-industrialized itself). IMO, Russian retaliation would be immediate – before NATO could threaten nuclear blackmail. Note, Russia+allied combat ready forces greatly exceed NATO’s (subtract Turkish forces and US forces are tied down globally – recall desert storm for US response times – 6-12 months and that was with the armories full).
So what is possible? NATO could try a land grab near the Polish border – an expeditionary force of 5-20k with armor, covered by AAD in Poland to declare a fait accomplit “humanitarian corridor” – BELIEVING Russia would not retaliate against the Polish bases due to Article 5/nuclear escalation. NATO could argue (in its echo chamber) that Russia retaliation (we will hit their decision centers) is a bluff.
Evidence to date shows Russia doesn’t bluff. Google “Sergey Surovikin smile” – Nyet.
Actually, Russia Humint and SigInt of movements seems up to the task of early detection – to allow BYR forces to interdict preemptively. Point is – if it happens, it is being allowed to create a causus belli to hit NATO in Poland. The troop and mil equip movements Larry highlights are part of this high stakes game.
More tanks on one train than the entire British Army has, I think. No wonder the west prefers proxy wars.
Negotiations would be the best approach but it is easy to keep “fighting” when other people are doing the dying. Too many armchair warriors in western governments, armies and citizenry signaling their warped virtue.
The Russians also must realise by now that our lying politicians are agreement incapable.
”More tanks on one train than the entire British Army has”
Just love the comment, and how true it is.
What will Moscow do next ?
If Moscow‘s Grand Strategy is prevailing in a global war of economic attrition between the 87% and 12% of the world; then Moscow‘s next steps in Ukraine will be to;
1) Husband it’s own (military) resources while inflicting as much destruction as possible on NATOs resources. Moscow needs minimal 1:10 ratio of destruction.,
2) keep the 87% on the reservation; perhaps via symbolic military victories on the ground in Ukraine. Symbolic victories are enough. It’s enough to signal the 87% that they are on-the-winning-team.
3) counter any and all destabilization – Color Revolutions among the 87%.
It’s actually far more interesting to reflect on NATOs grand strategy – NATOs old playbook of sanctions and destabilize seems to have backfired. Therefore, the key question is what is NATO likely to do ? Fighting to the last Ukrainian ain‘t gonna‘ cut it.
HMS Terror says
Since the March withdrawals, I’ve been saying that the war will run to a timeline set by external developments. Whatever RU does next will coincide with the main principles you’ve outlined.
I recall Lavrov’s explanation of Russia’s foreign policy goals to an interviewer years ago:
“… to turn adversaries into neutrals, neutrals into friends, and friends into allies”.
He spent his entire career focussed like a laser on those goals as his foreign peers floated on & off stage like so much flotsam & jetsam. Whether they were honest or dishonest, stupid or clever, serious or disingenuous, he & Russia steered the course. 2 decades later, >85% of the world is neutral or better, and much of the remaining <15% is one cold & hungry winter away from neutrality.
Russia isn't going to go off script now. It's at the penultimate stage of its long game to change the world and its focus will not be diverted no matter how many times the Crimea bridge needs repair.
Russians are master in “Maskirova”
John Q. Publick says
Is it possible that the Ukrainians were planning on some type of disruptive action against Belarus to weaken Russia’s flank, and this is preemptive? With the added benefit of checking Ukraine and NATO?
just saying says
They don’t have enough troops to open another front. Everything they have is sent south to take as much as they can before winter.
Russia’s goal in Ukraine and with Ukraine is constantly changing and aligning with what the West is doing through its vassals in Kiev.
1) By 2014 – The goal was a complete and sovereign Ukraine outside of NATO.
2) After the illegal coup in 2014 – Ukraine outside NATO, but this time without Crimea.
3) After the Kiev junta sent the army to the pro-Russian population of the east of the country in 2014 – the goal is Ukraine outside of NATO, without Crimea, with autonomy for the Donbass.
4) After the Kiev junta started terrorizing the pro-Russian population in the east of the country – the goal is Ukraine outside of NATO, without Crimea and Donbass.
5) After the West encouraged Ukraine to try to return Donbass militarily – the goal is to demilitarize Ukraine, without Crimea, Donbass, Zaporozhye, Kherson, and of course without membership in NATO.
5) Since Western mentors are encouraging the Kiev regime to refuse negotiations, the next target will be Odessa, and complete military capitulation.
We have a proverb: “Whoever plants pumpkins with the West, the pumpkins will fall on his head”.
While no one know russia’s exact planning , by the pattern of their SMO it can be inferred that this is a long game russia been playing not just in ukraine SMO (which so many ppl aka doomers think this is the only theatre) but the real theatre is worldwide and russia is not the one with their back to the wall but it is US/EU that have their back to the wall , as the longer this go the weaker their economy will be and the more their warstock got depleted by losing war in ukraine as their proxy forces are siphoning the massice $$$ for themselves.
based on the events happening in the world , it is obvious Russia already scored major victories in the world stage
Agree. SCO, EAEU, BRICS+ etc are the multi polar future. WEF psychos and neocons can’t do a damn thing about it. They will try but they will fail.
Reality Check says
Hi Larry, long time lurker, first time commenter. First off I’d like to say how much I enjoy your column. It gives much to think about not covered elsewhere in today’s lockstep media.
It strikes me that the logical move for the Crown Prince of SA is to start negotiating with China for it to deploy troops and equipment instead of the USA.
Particularly since the Saudis are engaging China to construct an entire city.
Iran is also an ally of China and a relatively neutral force may be able to “settle” conflict there as well as it can be done in a situation of such historic and religious conflict.
That of course would not bode well for the Israelis of course as both countries, or indeed the entire region, could return to their default setting.
A logical progression from that would be for China to request oil be sold in their currency or, if they wish to curry favor, in a basket of BRICS currencies.
That would also have the effect of chopping of the petrodollar and US influence in the region entirely.
“we will end up on the outside, looking in and nobody is going to want to talk to us. Real lepers”
It could be worse than that. The Ukraine debacle might signal the rest of the world that America is weak and up for grabs.
Whatever plan the Neocons had for Ukraine (war won —–> Putin destroyed —–> Russia dismantled) is backfiring BADLY.
Events that are going to take place during the next 5 years are going to be **interesting**… Imho the 21century didn’t start on 2001-09-11 but on 2022-02-24 = the worldwide status quo that we inherited from the 1945 armistice is going to be shattered. Cards are going to be reshuffled (not to the interests of America) = events that are going to take place during the next 5 years are going to be **interesting**…
In the last 2 WEEKS, Russia has been constantly saying that the GRAINS from Odessa (Ukraine), is NOT going to the POOR countries and Russia Grains is STILL BLOCKED by EU. I think Russia is UPDATING the WORLD that the Grain Agreement is NOT WORKING, and it EXPIRES in Nov 19. And so i believe, Russia will NOT RENEW the agreement, and then ATTACKS and TAKES OVER Odessa and CONNECT to Moldova Transnistria. Finally, Black Sea is under full control by Russia, and Crimea Naval Base is SECURED.
Russia WINNING this war AGAINST the NUTJOB NATO is the only way, to end this war.
” WINNING ….AGAINST”
Linear framing is endemic in certain social relations including those seeking to return to the future which does not yet exist, or return to a past which never existed, in hopeful attempts to facilitate a linearly modified “status quo” of returning to the present by coercion, thereby encouraging those subject to such coercion to engage in war which is not limited to things that go bang – a component of the causations of “constant war”.
Hence wars can never be won only re-iterated in modified forms, and this is understood by some who consequently tend to base their purposes/strategies on transcendence.
No since lateral change is a constant whose variables include but are not limited to trajectories and velocities.
In some ways the approach of the Biden regime is refreshing. Propaganda aside there is no pretense about what they are and what they think at state level or how they view disagreeing voices.
While the Trump regime saw itself as an economic and military power seeking markets and largely peaceful trade, not interested in foreign military adventures.
The Biden regime sees itself as an absolute colonial, military and economic power with no limits or ethics or accountability. In this sense it is America or America elites first in the ugliest sense of the word. Everything is justified for their interest and there is no pretense about it at Diplomatic levels.
Biden is very open in his regard of other nations as inferior vassals or inferiors of the United States. This attitude is beginning to wear thin on allies but there is nothing they can do about it. Oddly they fear him more than Trump.
Right now the US remains the number one economic, legal and military power in the world (influence and reach not necessarily technology).
It will be a very difficult process to pry Americas fingers out of every pie. So it is helpful that Biden is so arrogant he is doing this himself.
This all has a long way to play out. Weather the East can create a solid alternative economic system remains to be seen.
” create a solid alternative economic system remains to be seen.”
Since lateral change is a constant, it will likely remain unseen to some, since it will never be “solid”, but always flexible in lateral creation/modification.
performance matters says
L, your work is a reliable news feed for us.
Germany’s economy is vulnerable to cold temps as it has prepped for only one winter with median temperature outcomes and below median consumption. German leadership is asking citizens to wear sweaters. Will a cold winter send nat gas prices higher? and will it send jobs from Germany back to southern Europe, such as Italy Greece and Spain?
With climate alarmists warning us that use of hydrocarbons will end life on earth by 2030, Germans have abandoned their concerns for “end of Life” in 2030, for the risk of end of life in 2023 from no heat! Blue asch….Germans
Biden has shut down access to bank credit for domestic oil and gas producers, and he asked Saudi’s for more oil output, or at least to wait until after our election to scale back OPEC production. Biden got the bad news, bad news 1/2 peace sign from Saudi….
With 90 Day LIBOR now 4.23% v 0.2% one year ago, the cost of either working capital or floating notes has climbed into beyond nose bleed territory for business, while energy is still difficult to find as labor is also difficult to find. Staying solvent in business is greatly threatened…
Has anybody noticed the flipping of social media ownership into the hands of Non US Democrat businessman, with Kanye West is buying Parler? Following Elon’s purchase of Twitter …
Do news media executives see the monster market opportunity to report truthful news such as Larry is doing?
Larry, your audience is growing geometrically due to your work and insights … and without annoying advertising
In proxies wars , victories are not achieved via military means.
Given the inertia of the populations in general, political victory in Ukraine could be achieved for Russia in 3 to 5 years at best, 8 to 10 years at worst, mostly depending of the economics parts of this conflict. The military part will follow that schedule as long as no nukes are used. The problem is Russians and Ukrainians are both hard-hitters with a massive resilience degree. It won’t end in five rounds.
The only other possibility is a pro-russian coup with popular support in Kiev. But the banderist part of Ukrainistan are to intoxicated with their own nationalism and exceptionalism for this to happen before a wile.
Long war it is then, only a total loss will help Ukrops and the west understand and acknowledge how illegitimate they were from 2014. Anything other could be a peace without bravery, and a dishonoring peace do not pave the way for a war-less future and Russians knows a thing or two about it.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
A blitzkrieg offensive on Kiev from Belarus, with or without Belarusian participation, would be the logical move at this point. The mobilised forces could be committed piecemeal to defend the Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye, but they are insufficient to do more than stabilise the situation and make local gains. Concentrated in the North and used for a proper attack – not the half hearted play-acting we saw in February and March- to take Kiev, they’d have a devastating effect. It’s not just the enormous political and psychological effect of capturing the nazi capital (de jure, we all know what the de facto capital is). Kiev is a major transport hub, and capturing it will make it next to impossible for the nazis to hold Kherson and threaten the LNR. They’ll either have to abandon Kherson to defend Kiev or lose both. It’s an enormous pity that Russia didn’t build up forces and take Kiev in April. The nazis would have been driven to their knees long ago.
Eric Newhill says
IMO, you are underestimating the challenges and destructiveness involved in street fighting in a big city like Kiev. I don’t see the Russians going into it. Besieging the city? Perhaps so, but not entering.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Besieging something the size of Kiev will take maybe a million soldiers. There no need for street fighting if an updated version of the Grozny 2000 option is used: advance sector by sector after crushing artillery preparation. It will require Russia to be willing to inflict the destruction and casualties necessary, which, under Surovikin, it seems finally ready to.
Eric Newhill says
1 million soldiers?!!!?
How come? I’m talking about controlling the chokes points into and out oof the city.
No way Russia is going to reduce Kiev to rubble.
Oblomovka daydream says
From the Russian RT article https://russian.rt.com/ussr/article/1062069-ukraina-obekty-infrastruktura-energetika-vzryvy
“RIA Novosti reports that the LPR servicemen captured a group of Ukrainian intelligence officers near the village of Berestovoye in the Kharkiv region in the Svatovsky direction.
The agency cites the story of one of the members of the Ukrainian group, Viktor Berezhny, who was taken prisoner. According to him, at least 100 foreign fighters, including officers from the USA, Poland and Great Britain, helped the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the fighting in the Kharkiv region in the area of Balakleya, Kupyansk and Shevchenkovo.
According to a captured Ukrainian soldier, they were instructed to clear the way, bring in a group of mercenaries, wait for it to dig in, and leave. He noted that he personally led seven groups of foreign mercenaries to the Kharkov direction, each of which had about 20 people.
Later, the Investigative Committee reacted to the information released by the prisoners of war.
“According to the prisoner of war, the experience of foreign mercenaries contributes to the cohesive conduct of hostilities on the side of Ukraine,” the IC said in a statement.
The department announced the verification of these data with the subsequent legal assessment of the actions of foreigners in accordance with the norms of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation.
Another Russian RT article https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/1062190-lnr-svatovskoe-napravlenie
“Police Colonel of the Lugansk People’s Republic Vitaliy Kiselyov on the air of Channel One said that the Ukrainian military in the Svatovsky direction is driven by mercenary instructors from the United States and European countries.
According to him, the motivation of the Ukrainian military is that the NATO officers present in Ukraine “push them forward to ‘liberate’ the territories.”
Kiselev also believes that the mercenary instructors “do not care about the Ukrainians, do not care how many of them will die there,” RIA Novosti reports .
Earlier, RT war correspondent Vlad Andritsa showed footage of a tank battle in the Svatovo direction . [ https://russian.rt.com/ussr/news/1062161-video-tankovyi-boi ]
On October 14, Kiselev announced that the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Svatovsky direction could make a breakthrough at the beginning of next week.”
It becomes clear, that the UAF is being lead by NATO ‘mercenaries’, while the brunt of the UAF consists of untrained conscripts. Soon these NATO ‘mercenaries’ will also be depleted. Then the UAF will rest nothing but to capitulate.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
This is something I have predicted for years (and been abused by Raevsky and Martyanov as a “troll” for saying) : by not intervening in 2014-15 Russia created a situation where it will have to fight a major war against NATO regular forces in Ukrainian uniform.
“by not intervening in 2014-15 Russia created a situation where it will have to fight a major war against NATO regular forces in Ukrainian uniform.”
That was always understood by some from 1969 and how 2014 and why 2022.
What’s it all about Alfie?
Is it just for the moment we live?
No it is to facilitate others living after us.
How will that be achieved ?
By laterally transcending coercive social relations by social relations based upon mutual co-operation of from each according to her/his abilities, to each according to her/his needs.
“Troll”, that is a reflex mantra in attempt to ward off evil spirits – a synonym of “the other” – “the evil doer who understands that I’m a fool”.
You are not a “troll”, just a useful fool like many others who believe that they have significant acumen in strategic formulation, as are Mr. Raevsky through interactions in combination of resort to “emotionalism” and insufficient understanding of appropriate methodologies, and more rarely through over-extension outwith “military considerations” – a practice he appears to increasingly understand and attempt to avoid – Mr. Martyanov.
“Russia created a situation where it will have to fight a major war against NATO regular forces”
Admittedly by very few, but that was understood in 1969 and by even fewer in 1956.
Thank you for your service of complicity in your own transcendence and the transcendence of others.
Alex Thrace says
But but but, General Ben Hodges Ret(arded) says Ukraine will prevail and recapture Crimea.
“Crimea will be free by summer’ — former US army chief Ben Hodges
Ben Hodges, former commander of the US army in Europe, said in an interview for Germany’s FAZ newspaper that he believes that “Crimea will be free by summer.”
“When I look at the situation, I see that the situation of the Russians is getting worse with every week. They say war is a test of will and logistics — and on both counts Ukraine is far superior,” Hodges said.
“The Russians have to lose the war, otherwise they’ll try again in two or three years,” he insisted.
Hodges argued that Russian leadership’s “one hope” is for a decrease in Western support for Kyiv.
“So they are doing everything they can to prolong the war and spread fear and insecurity in the West. Any means will do: The young men who are now being conscripted as cannon fodder, as well as attacks on infrastructure in the West,” Hodges told FAZ.
“I believe that we will therefore see more such acts of sabotage and attacks, or at least attempts, in the coming weeks and months.”
Western leaders suspect Russia of sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines. The pipelines were hit by blasts that caused a major gas leak late in September.”
Eric Newhill says
That seems to be the flavor of propaganda these days. I have a friend who is a successful fiction writer (NY Times best seller, etc). He has no military background and is, of course, an establishment republican war hawk who thinks the US is the best at everything and has the duty of policing the world no matter what the cost. He hates Russia and, especially, Putin. He thinks the place and govt are pure backwards evil. There is no pro-US/pro-UKR propaganda that he won’t accept as fact. He still believes the Russian column North of Kiev ran out of gas b/c the Russians are too drunk and stupid to remember to bring extra fuel. There is no discussing him out of his opinions. I used to think he is intelligent, calm and rational. I’ve changed my mind.
Anyhow, his latest – apparently absorbed from various MSM sources – is that the new Russian troops in UKR have only had 5 days of training and they are being instantly slaughtered or are surrendering at first opportunity. Then they are saying all kinds of hateful things about Putin once captured. I think he recalls watching the opening scene from the film “Enemy at the Gate” and foolishly believes that nothing has changed in the Russian military.
Alex Thrace says
The level of ignorance about Russia is shocking and embarrassing.
I hear all manner of people in my circle telling me how we need Trump to unleash the F35s and show those backwards Russkies who’s boss.
I know one guy who hates Russians because they are all crazy psycho killers ( too much TV watching where Russian mafia are the gleeful villains of choice)
I asked him if he ever actually met a Russian. Of course he had not except for the cute Russian chick at Starbucks.
I tell you what. I have met Russians traveling all over the world, Cambodia, the Philippines, France, Pakistan, the Seychelles, Kenya,, Austria and a few others, they were amoung the nicest, most well spoken and well educated people I have ever met. Way nicer and more worldly than most Americans I run into.
No offense, but this question reminds me of the old Grant comment: “Oh, I am heartily tired of hearing about what Lee is going to do. Some of you always seem to think he is suddenly going to turn a double somersault, and land in our rear and on both of our flanks at the same time. Go back to your command, and try to think what we are going to do ourselves, instead of what Lee is going to do.”
Putin will do whatever Putin will do.
The question is what should the West do?
1) Send more money and weapons to Ukraine until Russia surrenders and makes a permanent peace? If so, we can’t just send the Russians back to February 2021 lines, they will just wait a bit and attack again, so what is the endgame? It has to be regime change in Moscow. Check out how this has gone in the past at your local library and add nukes to the ending.
2) Declare victory now while we still can and drawing back support for Ukraine in the fine tradition of the US involvement in South Vietnam, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan etc.? Leaving a rump, scarred and impoverished state and having created millions of desperate refugees mainly for the profits of the MIC?
I vote for door #2.
I bet the paparazzi will know first, as they are keeping watch on Zelensky’s many mansions, watching for van loads of provisions, contractors coming to spruce up a little, and other contractors showing up to establish a perimeter.
He’s going to run, slowly at first and then all of a sudden. But the slow part will be noticeable to those who are looking.
Putin is getting ready to slam the piano keylid down on the piano playing President of Ukraine!
Has anyone ever thought about why the NATO media trumpets that they have no ammunition for war?
Actually, this would be a military secret and it would be the task of Russian intelligence to find this information. But no, NATO is voluntarily giving it away to the Russians. This is not done out of stupidity and not accidentally. So what does that mean?
A bluff? Why such a bluff? Completely unnecessary. Why should the US and NATO inform the Russians that they would have ammunition only for a few days? So that the Russians would attack the USNATO? But then they would have a lot of ammunition in reality? Bullshit. USNATO knows that Russia is not attacking NATO territory. To tell Russia they were short of conventional munitions and that’s why the USNATO was going nuclear? Nonsense. To inform the Russians that the West does not want direct war? That the USNATO wants to “play” only on the territory of Banderaland?
Anyway, this is very dubious.
Eric Newhill says
They have to explain their real logistics situation to get more funding. Since the citizens pay the taxes and make the sacrifices, it has to be a partly public discussion.
Absolute nonsense…”partly” says it all.
But is that the real reason? As long as they only fantasize a threat, that is explainable. But now in the war?
Eric Newhill says
well, it’s possible also that stating that there is nothing more to give to Ukraine is a way to back out of a losing situation while kind of saving face – or to explain why some form of escalation is necessary in the future; like having Poland step in (which I see as likely, but possible)
“A bluff? Why such a bluff? Completely unnecessary.”
No deemed to be a necessary attempt at bluff for one “target audience” in hoped furtherance of one purpose, and a different necessary bluff as a function of their perceived likely interpretations of another “target audience” predicated on the illusion that another “target audience” gives a damn.
Expected reactions as a function of hope and tempo, Mr. Stangl’s restructuring of Treblinka to attain throughput of circa 800,000 to 900,000 “stuk” in less than one year being one example of many in pursuits of Cy.
Top Gum says
It is utter stupidity and incompetence in my opinion.
Once the German MOD give away information about troops position on live TV. This says everything. The actual German MOD is a woman with zero qualifications running such a important ministry. Their army is a joke. This was stated not long ago. They have no funds, most equipment is put together from already broken pieces. The army is not able to use about 50% of their stuff. This is not a joke.
Germany shot itself in the face implementing sanctions. Their politicians are utter morons. They live in a totally different world.
Idiots rule in Germany. We know that. But if the reason is stupidity, why do we hear the same from the other NATO forces and from the USA? Are there only idiots in the West?
There are multiple factions in a civil war within the US government, each trying to sabotage the other.
The neocons want “limited” nuke war, which they stupidly believe is winnable.
The sane know we’re losing & seek an exit ramp from Ukr to cut losses.
One group wants to move on to China.
Who knows what other factions there are.
Any of the above could imagine an advantage to airing the need to stop sending arms to Ukr to be destroyed or sold on back market.
Not a surprising behavior for a psychocracy:
Psychopathy is the inability to process emotional experience, including love and caring, except when such experience can be calculated as a coldly intellectual task. It’s not just an absence of guilt and remorse.
It’s an aberration in the ability to have and to appreciate real (noncalculated) emotional experience, and therefore to connect with other people within real (noncalcuated ) relationships. It’s ultimately based on lovelessness.
Psychopaths cannot love, by definition they do not have higher values, and they almost never feel comfortable in their own skins. They are loveless, amoral and chronically bored, even the few who become rich and powerful. And they are uncomfortable in their own skins for more reasons than boredom. The absolute self-involvement of psychopathy creates an individual consciousness that is aware of every little ache and twitch in the body, every passing sensation in the head and chest, with acute personalized concern to every radio and TV report about everything from bedbugs to ricin.
The emotional bankruptcy of psychopathy means that the psychopath is forever deprived of an authentic emotional intelligence, a capacity for understanding how people work that is an irreplaceable guide for living in the human world.
A person without conscience, even a smart one, tends to be a shortsighted and surprisingly naïve individual who eventually expires of boredom, financial ruin, or a bullet.
Eric Newhill says
There is something in addition to what you list that makes this species even worse. They do experience some proto-emotions that drive most of their behaviors, and that are, of course, negative. These are combined with the characteristic and defining massive narcissism and Machiavellianism.
First is *contempt* for normals, who psychopaths see as “suckers”, “dupes” and “prey”. Second is a seething ambient *envy* that develops into a *hatred* that seeks to destroy all that is good.
Psychopaths, as you say, cannot understand love, trust, lasting bonds, cooperation, realistic planning for the future, hard work and self-sacrifice. However, they do observe normals as having those values and enjoying the fruits of that kind of interaction amongst themselves. They sense that they are different and missing something valuable in the core of their being that they can’t have what the normals do. A “sour grapes” attitude prevails and then, at some point in early adulthood, that morphs into a desire to destroy that which they cannot have and by which they could be judged as human failures should they be exposed to the light of day.
Modern politics is a great occupation for psychopaths. There is no accountability. It’s all lies, self-glorification, slander and manipulation and easy money. That’s the kind of environment they need to keep going at their game.
Christian Chuba says
Belarus has no incentive to deny Russia access to their territory.
The Biden Administration immediately hit Belarus with the same sanctions as on Russia in the opening days of the conflict. Belarus has not been involved but since we already shot our wad, we have nothing left to threaten them with.
Lviv not Keiv. The troops deployed to Belarus will chop the supply lines coming in from Poland. There will be a similar move from the south out of Kherson.
Fortified City says
In the end evil loses, we don’t have to figure this out. We have it told to you us directly and categorically so.
Who are the liars, thieves and murderers are they not the evil ones?
Curt Nichols says
The Russians are not children that live in a smart phone 5 second attention span world. I doubt if they start a serious move before November 8th. They will not want to give Pedo Joe a rally round the flag moment. And as others have pointed out. Leaves coming off trees. The ground is freezing. The Ukronazi’s do not have winter clothing. Every day is money in the bank while the missile rain continues. Continue to hammer the electric infrastructure. Which screws up troop movement on the largely electric trains. As Larry astutely pointed out, freeze troops in Kiev and warn off Poland with the Belarus buildup. And if the Nazi’s fuck up and don’t reinforce? Move south on the East side of Kiev and cut off those Donbas forces. Russia has options. Ukraine has a death wish.
What’s next? My bet is on Nikolajev and Odessa – even before completely liberating Donetzk oblast. Making the Black Sea a ‘Mare Nostrum’ has real strategical implications.
Why Kiew? Why make haste? It is a perfect millstone for EU…
Imho everything has already been announced. There will be no capitulation – Ukraine simply will go 404 – a name for history books. A Rusin Republic will suit the RF very well. It is multicultural from its s core. And constitution.
Any successful empire must be truly multicultural. Remember all those gods the Romans gave a place on their Capitol Hill – and compare D.C. today. No monument even celebrating the Invisible Hand 😉
Eric Newhill says
Phase 1 – When the ground freezes Russia will consolidate its hold on its new territories. UKR forces East of the Dnipro will be destroyed and the river will become a natural de facto DMZ.
Another aspect of Phase 1 will be Russia moving down from Belarus to surround – but not enter – Kiev. This will serve the four purposes – 1. drawing off UKR forces from the East – 2. providing an anvil to the hammer in the East. The Russian thrust from the East will probably cross the Dnipro in acting as “the hammer”, but will then fall back East of the River once UKR forces have been smashed against the anvil – 3. Intercepting and smashing NATO rat lines from Poland. – 4. Putting pressure on the Zelensky regime in the hopes that it collapses.
Phase 1 will be completed February. There will be pause. At this point Russia will control all functioning power generation in UKR. What it couldn’t control, outside its new territory, it will have destroyed. UKR will be cold and dark. Europe will be cold dark and hungry only to somewhat lesser degree. There will be civil unrest. Russia will have a slim hope that the Kiev regime will fall and that a desperate NATO will accept peace negotiations, but they will be prepared for an outright rejection of the offer driven by the US.
Then Phase 2 commences. Russian pushes on Odessa, successfully. There is an Odessa referendum and it votes to join Russia. When Odessa falls so does the Zelensky regime (if it hasn’t already) b/c there is no faith in his govt and its lies are biting them in the ass, hard and it has no military to back it up. Russia implements a political campaign to seduce the people of UKR to install a Russia friendly govt. Civil war erupts in UKR not already part of Russia; independent UKR camp v pro-Russia camp. Russia, of course, aids the pro-Russia camp and NATO has nothing left to give, other than some terrorists attacks. In desperation, NATO has Poland enter Western UKR and dares Russia to attack Polish NATO troops (augmented by some NATO Balkan/Eastern European country or countries). Russia declines to engage and makes it clear they won’t – unless these NATO troops attack the new Russian territories. This will be a time more dangerous for all of the world than currently and this is when the opportunity for false flags of monstrous proportions arises (i.e. Russia attacked NATO troops).
Some where in al of this, in the phase 2 time frame, which is April 2023 – December 2023,, European governments start to collapse amid civil unrest. Most will go the way of Italy and will be less compliant with the EU (which will dissolve over the next 5 years) and NATO (which will dissolve, country by country, over a ten year time frame)
Thanks, Larry. One of the facets of foreign policy realism is that one must consider the limits of one’s own power. The rest of the world has to be foreign policy realists simply because the US exists. The US hasn’t considered there to be a limit on its power in a long time. That’s problematic for the US because it leads to making mistakes like, well like the current Ukraine quagmire.
As for the buildup in Belarus, if the 9,000 Russian troops number is right it’s probably a fixing operation. I don’t see Russia trying to take Kiev, but I could see a move down the left bank of the Dnieper. It would be a logical dividing line for a new rump Ukraine that would be quite hard to attack over. Kiev will fall under its own inertia based on energy and economy. I’m not even sure russia wants it, even considering its position as the mother of Russian cities.
…It’s important to keep in mind that not only had Russia beaten the US to the punch on ABM, it had developed a suite of nuclear strike weapons which no plausible ABM system could stop. To make matters worse, PNAC’s dream of space dominance was shattered by the S-550 which was a Mach 25 missile capable of bringing down any space object. This weapon alone brings Russia absolute dominance and command of near space, including deployment of fractional orbit bombardment systems, and plausible space weapon and even ICBMs. The laser weapon, should it work, also suggested that Russia had advanced its physical model of the atom beyond the understanding of the west’s and is capable of waging space warfare below the threshold of all-out war. Should that threshold be crossed however, if Russia builds these advanced weapons in sufficient numbers, it would have both first and second strike capability…
k. talaat says
Putin showed the world how he approached the Ukraine with velvet gloves. Instead, of sitting down and just saying we will remain neutral, its actor president refused to sign. With additional major disrespect heaped on Russia and its people, NATO turned Ukraine into a proxy of the US.
I will be surprised, if Russia’s response isn’t going to be a new interpretation of shock and awe.
Jim Giles says
Larry Johnson is now asking the same question I’ve been asking you, i.e., what are you going to do next?
I pretty much ignore Western media and look to Larry to let me know what is really going on.
I propose that you allow me to audition with Larry on RT. I also request that you get Yuliya Bubnova (TASS Russian News Agency) to sit next to me and translate what I’m saying into Russian even if she has to read the translation from a teleprompter. You will recall her of course as the beautiful young lady at your recent news conference, https://youtu.be/LMRXvNvRX6M @ 6:50.
I would be the interviewer and I would ask Larry questions as to what is really happening in the Ukraine and Russia, etc.
You think I’m joking but I’m not. We could do this. What we would be offering the world is authenticity which is currently completely lacking. Western media is pathetic. Western media is beyond pathetic.
Larry is sharp as a razor.
What are you going to do next?
Radio Free Mississippi
Per Intel Slava, quoting General Armageddon, Russia is evacuating citizens from Kherson in anticipation of a major battle in last ditch effort. Intel that Nato is planning to blow up a major dam, as well as target civilian infrastructure. Russia is strengthening along the entire front line.
Donald Vovecide says
Why hasn’t Russia already taken all of Ukraine yet?? Ukraine’s air force got destroyed, western aid isn’t making a difference, and the Russian military is so much more powerful!!