There is a massive misunderstanding about the Wagner PMC. I want to try to clear up some of the confusion and erroneous assumptions.
First, Wagner PMC was created by the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence organization. Think of it as the CIA’s Special Activities Divsion (SAD) on steroids. It is a para military unit that carried out missions under the cover of a PMC but was controlled by the GRU. Wagner gave Russia the ability to carry out military missions without putting the reputation of the Russian military on the line. The military commanders of Wagner are former Spetznaz and conventional Russian military.
Second, Wagner PMC was a Russian military contractor, albeit “covert.” The cover was not robust but Wagner could project Russian military force without being overtly seen as a direct Russian operation.
Third, Prigozhin is the business CEO of Wagner. He has zero military experience but is an established contractor, just like Raytheon or General Dynamics in the United States. He handled (or mishandled) the money flowing to Wagner and probably spread the wealth among some commanders. The cash flow from Wagner added to Prigozhin’s wealth. It also fed his ego and provided him the illusion of being viewed in Russia an important military figure.
Fourth, Prigozhin reportedly cut a deal in 2018 with a Syrian war lord to capture a Conoco oil field in a portion of Kurd controlled territory, which was defended by a small group of U.S. Special Operations Forces. This was the Battle of Khashsam aka the Battle of Conoco:
The Battle of Khasham, also known as the Battle of Conoco Fields, was a military engagement of the Syrian civil war fought on 7 February 2018 near the towns of Khasham and Al Tabiyeh in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate, Syria. The Operation Inherent Resolve coalition delivered air and artillery strikes on Syrian Armed Forces and pro-government militias after they reportedly engaged a U.S. military and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) position in the region.
The United States explained the attack by stating that the pro-government forces had “initiated an unprovoked attack against well-established Syrian Democratic Forces headquarters” in the area, while coalition service members were “co-located with SDF partners during the attack 8 kilometers (5 mi) east of the agreed-upon Euphrates River de-confliction line”.[18][19][20] The Russian Ministry of Defence‘s statement, released on 8 February 2018, referred to the incident at the village of Salihiyah (located south of the SDF-held town of Abu Hamam in the Abu Kamal District) and said that it was caused by reconnaissance actions of Syrian militias that had not been cleared with the Russian operations command; the statement stressed that there were no Russian service members in the “designated district of the Deir ez-Zor province of Syria”
The United States, from its Joint Air Operations Center in Qatar, asked its Russian counter parts if there were any Russian personnel in the area, according to the New York Times:
American military officials repeatedly warned about the growing mass of troops. But Russian military officials said they had no control over the fighters assembling near the river — even though American surveillance equipment monitoring radio transmissions had revealed the ground force was speaking in Russian.
The documents described the fighters as a “pro-regime force,” loyal to President Bashar al-Assad of Syria. It included some Syrian government soldiers and militias, but American military and intelligence officials have said a majority were private Russian paramilitary mercenaries — and most likely a part of the Wagner Group, a company often used by the Kremlin to carry out objectives that officials do not want to be connected to the Russian government.
“The Russian high command in Syria assured us it was not their people,” Defense Secretary Jim Mattis told senators in testimony last month. He said he directed Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, “for the force, then, to be annihilated.”
This is the origin of Prigozhin’s anger with the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin, going rogue as part of a scheme to make some big money not tied to Wagner’s contract with the Russian MOD, authorized the attack and got burned.
This apparently was one of the motives for Prigozhin’s eventual meeting with Ukrainian and Western intelligence officers in Africa, which led to his harebrained scheme to take out the Defense Minister Shoigu and Chief of Staff of the Russian military, Gerasimov.
Apart from Prigozhin the other guilty party in the failed mutiny is the GRU or, more specifically, those GRU officers responsible for managing the PMC. It is highly likely that Prigozhin may have bribed his GRU handlers with some of the cash he earned on the side in order to get them to look the other way and allow him to pursue entrepreneurial opportunities. Those officers may be in more trouble than Prigozhin.
Wagner PMC is now consigned to history. It is kaput as a PMC. This explains why the MOD ended the contract with Wagner aka Prigozhin and established a dead line for moving the Wagner troops under the direct control of the Russian military.
The MoD is moving all PMCs and volunteer units into the regular military, not just Wagner.
The American base in Syria was totally illegal and it was a colossal betrayal by the MoD to allow Wagner to be struck there. If I were Prigozhin I would be infuriated too.
Prigozhin was acting rogue. He paid the consequence.
“Prigozhin was acting rogue.” – that’s actually debatable, given the fact that his units were assisting the Syrian government forces at the time. He could’ve easily explained is actions as attempt to maintain his cover as “independent” contractor, unrelated to russian MoD. Not that anyone would’ve believed it…
Priggy was supposed to take direction from the GRU in these operaatioins. He didn’t. He acted on his own for money and Russians died for it. It is well understtod that PMCs are created to offer plausible deniability to the government if they get caught – if you are caught, we don’t know you – pretty standard – which is why it is so important to follow directives of the government in these situations because if you don’t and you get caught, your people die.
And BTW, Priggy is not an “entrepreneur”: he is a criminal, and to this day I do not know why the Russian government has supported him.
Only Soldiers under the command of a National leader are legal combatants in a legal and declared war.
As so they must always carry the flag of their Nation on a military uniform. (usually on the right shoulder).
Every other combatant on a battlefield is illegal combatants, and can be shot on sight.
That means mercenaries, Private contractors; militias, terrorists and armed civilians can be shot on sight.
So why does anybody want be a mercenary or private contractor?
Because they are paid handsomely for taken the enormous risk of being killed.
For the same reason the US government use the Mafia, Lucky Luciano, Jack Ruby or the British Government use the UVF and Mad Dog.
Governments are the ultimate gangsters, everything below them are pussies.
“Every other combatant on a battlefield is illegal combatants, and can be shot on sight.
That means mercenaries, Private contractors; militias, terrorists and armed civilians can be shot on sight.”
Mercenaries and terrorists are not afforded the rights and protections of the Geneva Conventions. That is not the same thing as saying that they can be shot on sight.
As for private contractors, militias and armed civilians, you are not correct: Geneva Convention III, Article 4 explicitly mentions all three categories of person, and brings them all under its protective umbrella.
I’m posting my comments above the relevant post of -Yeah, Right- down below, because I’m blocked from posting below his post.
Yeah, Right says
As for private contractors, militias and armed civilians, you are not correct: Geneva Convention III, Article 4 explicitly mentions all three categories of people and brings them all under its protective umbrella.
That Protective Umbrella is a question of interpretation on the battlefields.
When a civilian takes up arms he becomes an illegal combatant.
When a contractor fires off a missile battery or a drone he becomes an illegal combatant.
When a militia man attacks a National soldier he becomes an illegal combatant.
Illegal combatants are not protected by the Geneva Convention.
Remember I wrote that they –CAN- be shot on sight.
However, no Soldier will gamble his own life by giving an armed “Civilian” the chance to fire first.
But you are right that if they put down their arms and surrenders, they –should- be protected as POW.
The last 30 years of US – NATO wars of aggression has produced amble video evidence that the Geneva Conventions are largely disregarded on the battlefields by mercenaries, contractors and militias.
The western public needs to know about the mercenary revolution.
We can’t keep overlooking the consequences of this insane change of rules on the battlefield it any longer.
https://indypendent.org/2007/08/the-mercenary-revolution
A. Dane is quite incorrect.
Combatants on the battlefield (“lawful”, “unlawful” or “oops, how did I get here?”) can of course be shot on sight because that’s what “warfare” actually is.
The issue is what happens when someone puts down their weapons in surrender, at which point you become the “detaining power”?
(I’ll not use the word “shot on sight” because, well, see above: the phrase is meaningless on a battlefield. I’ll use “summary execution of prisoners” because that appears to be what A. Dane is really talking about.)
Well, “surrender” is covered by Geneva Convention III.
A. Dane insists that when combatants come under your power then “mercenaries, Private contractors; militias, terrorists and armed civilians can be shot on sight.”
GCII Article 4 (1) “Members of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict, as well as members of militias or volunteer corps forming part of such armed forces.”
GCII Article 4 (2) “Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, including those of organized resistance movements, belonging to a Party to the conflict and operating in or outside their own territory, even if this territory is occupied, provided that such militias or volunteer corps, including such organized resistance movements, fulfil the following conditions: (a) that of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates; (b) that of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance; (c) that of carrying arms openly; (d) that of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.”
GCII Article 4 (4) “Persons who accompany the armed forces without actually being members thereof, such as civilian members of military aircraft crews, war correspondents, supply contractors, members of labour units or of services responsible for the welfare of the armed forces, provided that they have received authorization, from the armed forces which they accompany, who shall provide them for that purpose with an identity card similar to the annexed model.”
GCII Article 4 (5) “Members of crews, including masters, pilots and apprentices, of the merchant marine and the crews of civil aircraft of the Parties to the conflict, who do not benefit by more favourable treatment under any other provisions of international law.”
GCII Article 4 (6) “Inhabitants of a non-occupied territory, who on the approach of the enemy spontaneously take up arms to resist the invading forces, without having had time to form themselves into regular armed units, provided they carry arms openly and respect the laws and customs of war.”
There are others, of course, that aren’t relevant.
But I’m looking again at what is in those quotes, and I *do* see “contractors”, “militias”, and “armed civilians” mentioned, which means that if any of those come under your power you are NOT entitled to summarily execute them.
That leaves only “mercenaries” and “terrorists”, both of whom are outside the scope of Geneva Convention III.
Q: Does that mean that they can be summarily executed?
A: No. It means only what it means, which is that neither a Mercenary nor a Terrorist can pull out their dog-eared copy of the Geneva Conventions and start quoting from it.
Q: So I CAN shoot them?
A: Only if you can point to some other article of International Humanitarian Law that says that the summary execution of mercenaries and/or terrorists is permitted.
Q: And if I can’t?
A: Then any such summary execution is murder, and you are a murderer.
A.Dane “Remember I wrote that they –CAN- be shot on sight.”
A pointless point.
ALL combatants on the battlefield can – and almost certainly will – be shot on sight. That is what makes it a “battlefield”, and your “lawful combatant” needs nobody’s permission to shoot at their “combatant” irrespective of if they are lawful, unlawful, dressed in civilian garb or dressed in full martial pomp and glory.
A.Dane “The last 30 years of US – NATO wars of aggression has produced amble video evidence that the Geneva Conventions are largely disregarded on the battlefields by mercenaries, contractors and militias.”
And this matters…. how? That one “side” does not fight according to the Laws of War doesn’t lessen the requirement that *your* army to comply with the restrictions and proscriptions of the Geneva Conventions, and making that argument will carry exactly zero weight in a War Crimes Tribunal.
Yours is meant to be a civilized country, and your armed forces are supposed to conduct themselves in a lawful manner.
They are no more entitled to disregard the Geneva Conventions than a Police Officer is entitled to break the law to catch law-breakers.
Your arguments are shallow, as well as being incoherent.
Did Prig get angry on behalf of killed Wagner personnel or because his own wheeling and dealing prospects got exposed and nuked after MoD’s deniable plausibility? Rhetorical question btw.
Yeah, Right says
Combatants on the battlefield (“lawful”, “unlawful” or “oops, how did I get here?”) can of course be shot on sight because that’s what “warfare” actually is.
My comment:
You got there because you are incoherent.
Yeah, Right says
The issue is what happens when someone puts down their weapons in surrender, at which point you become the “detaining power”?
My comment:
In such a case I wrote that POWs should be protected by the Geneva convention, but you overlook what often happens before they are detained. The Saker blog and Telegram are filled with documented orders from Ukrainian officers to shoot Russian POW instead of detaining them.
Yeah, Right says
I’ll use “summary execution of prisoners” because that appears to be what A. Dane is really talking about.)
My comment:
Appears my A++. I have never mentioned Summary execution.
I’m talking about the gray zone during combat which has the same effect as an execution.
Yeah, Right says
Dane insists that when combatants come under your power then “mercenaries, Private contractors; militias, terrorists and armed civilians can be shot on sight.”
My comment:
I wrote that they can be shot at sight, which has happened during the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria and Ukraine, even though they were unarmed.
Former President George W. Bush even signed into law orders to invade and liberate US service men bought before the ICC in the Hague.
https://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/03/us-hague-invasion-act-becomes-law
The Geneva conventions have been violated to such an extent by the US, that today they are meaningless.
Yeah, Right says
The Laws of War doesn’t lessen the requirement that *your* army to comply with the restrictions and proscriptions of the Geneva Conventions, and making that argument will carry exactly zero weight in a War Crimes Tribunal.
My Comment:
After 30 years of US wars of aggression, and not one single US or NATO Soldier, mercenary or contractor has been bought before a War crime tribunal, your arguments are hollow.
Yeah, Right says
Your arguments are shallow, as well as being incoherent.
My comment:
You are frantically acting as a gatekeeper, babbling about the laws of war of which the US has been the greatest instigator of war crimes.
Are you by any chance a mercenary, contractor or am I debating with a CIA Agent?
To traslate Wagner to Bielorusia where tactical nuclear weapons have been dristibuted under custody of a weak army need to be some tactical operation of Rusia inteligence
The Russian Federation maintains absolute control over any/all nukes it deployed in Belarus.
The whole deal with Wagner PMC in Syria, and the United States calling up their buddies in the Russian MoD to ask: “Who are these guys?”
I mean, really?
If I had been at the Russian MoD and some American had asked me that question I would have responded: “How should I know I’m just some sub-human you invented, some country bumpkin just off the Commune. Start there.”
Sorry. This is just too much fun. “I know nothing. Nothing!” ‘Cause we really don’t.
How about this response?
How would I know? I’m just an attendant at one of the gas stations, posing as a country!
I recall the event in Syria and at that time the explanation I read was as follows:
The Syrian tribesmen / pro-government militia set out to attack SDF but Russians did not want this, mindful of agreements, and in fact tried to stop them on what was apparently a river bridge but were not successful. When Syrians were attacked by US aircraft, they also attacked Russians. It is only now that I found out that they were Wagner people. There were claims on internet that there were 100’s of Russians killed, which I thought ridiculous.
I suggest you go and view the latest Round Table discussion on Mike Krupa’s channel (Larry linked to it in his other post) as the guys go over the history and overall an enlightening summary of PMC Wagner and its origins.
Bis’ has a point. However, there are number of variations on this story. Main things are: a.) Wagner was involved b.) Russia denied accountability c.) there was a screwup airlifting Wagner wounded out. I just wrote an article on Priggy in which I refer my readers on Substack to Larry to read his several article on Prigozhin. An interesting sidelight is the discovery of “white powder” in Priggy’s offices rumoured to be cocaine. Whether cocaine or just the Soldier’s Delight– methamphetamine–it can produce the kind of emotional behavior the characterizes P’s somewhat delusional outbursts.
Still curious about who or which group of bureaucracy / administrator in moscow that persuade prigozin to do this ‘show of force coup’
i suspect the whole prigozin convoy is done by fake promises since it is rolled up so quickly , either prigozin got into a trap enticed by ‘traitors in moscow who will support him’ or he is a fool and coward to do this run without any real plan or even bare recogniztion that russian military and people wont support such conduct.
it is almost certain his ‘convoy to moscow’ plan was leaked by loyal russian inside wagner and the russian intelligence have plenty of info to stop this. that this is stopped so quick also indicate this is a known move and allowed to run thru it course to show how bad prigozin really is to the russian people , without smearing the name of Wagner as a whole.
Wagner lost face in this debacle but pretty sure it will be better after this nonsense
Wagner is disbanded now. All contractors can sign on with military or return home.
I’m thinking that’s what the Russian MoD wants you to believe. Notice that Prigozhin’s replacement (successor?) has not been announced. Russia needs Wagner PMC, and not just the way they are. Once Putin decides to “start something” that’s when Wagner PMC worth on the battlefield becomes critical. I wouldn’t be surprised that when Putin decides to “start something” that Wagner PMC actually goes quiet. We will know they are there by how the sh*t really hits the fan.
John Helmer suggests Shoigu was in Rostov during Progozhin‘s stunt overviewing his defenestration
5kg cocaine in St Petersburg clarifies Progozhin‘s rants
https://www.compromat.ru/page_44444.htm
Yep. That’s a lot of blow there. And provides another potential charge to Prig’s prosecution down the line.
I suppose in his defence he could claim that he’s been supplying Elensky.
What do we think about this? https://mediaarchives.gsradio.net/rense/special/rense_062723_hr2.mp3
I’d never heard of Mitchell Henderson, but the first ~20 minutes of his story is a wild, uncannily plausible ride down the Wagner/Prigozhin “mutiny” rabbit hole.
Unfortunately, he wanders off somewhat after that and ends with a markedly unnuanced “Da Jews dunnit” rant that subtracts from his credibility.
Anyway, thanks. The first 20-30 minutes are worth the time.
Yep, weird mixed with plausible.
Wow the Syria reveal makes the pieces fit together much better, thoug. Now crazy Prig being crazy makes sense, yet also invalidates the previous hypothesis of him acting as double agent.
1 doubt remains – why was Prig kept on such a long leash since 2018? That sort of deal with the warlord was not just a breach of MoD contract, but tantamount to treason when the risks of exposing direct Russian involvement in US occupied land were that high.
Wagner is still useful overseas. I suspect it will continue that role with a much, much smaller force. This for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=heylrE00fCI
Wagner PMC is still there. They accomplished their mission in eastern Ukraine and Bakhmut. And have been moved to where they are needed next. I get the impression that things are proceeding according to plan. We just don’t know where. Not yet. Wagner PMC are still very much in the Russo/American conflict.
In my opinion this was a huge psy-op carried out to achieve the following goals:
1) to identify possibile traitors inside the Russian establishment.
2) to test the solidity of the Russian military and political apparatus.
2) to hide troop movements around Ukraine.
3) to turn the Wagner group into a totally stealth “black-unit” under the direct control of the Russian MoD.
I read that thousands of Wagner troops moved to Belarus as a result. Could this just be a stunt to move them there for a new offensive?
Wagners nimis magnus factus est… negotiorum causa opus erat. Suspendisse accumsan, imperdiet sit… lorum. RU copulam traxit. Satis simplex est. occidens sperabat fliper wagners, sed heu! nunc secunda fronte septentrionali sunt. Res familiaris est.
The US equity markets are ~35,000….. the US debt is ~35 trillion. The China-man…. he just slides the beads on the abbacus……
…its just the flow of gold, the flow of power… east. East is rising, west is a setting sun.
Now Surovikin has disappeared; was he the head of the coup? In the video where he speaks to the Wagner rogues he appears unshaven and drunk – weird, was he busted and put under pressure / torture!?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeuEGuHXKEA
On questions from journalists, Dmitry Peskov recommends they shall contact the defence ministry because it’s its prerogative – an amateurish answer from the spokesman of the president. In such a situation he must show himself with the general personally in public immediately. But instead Surovikin’s daughter adresses herself to the public about the whereabouts of her father. Usually this is a strong sign that the relatives are trying to save the life of their fallen family member.
Meanwhile Putin is shaking hands with the people in Dagestan. Very unusual, because for security reasons he is well known not to do this. I guess there is some heated “debate” going on in the Kremlin at the very moment and he is trying to calm things down in order to get control back.
Come on… what absolute nonsense.
Surovikin looked like a guy who has a busy schedule who was asked to record a video telling a traitor to stand down, so that the Russian military didn’t have to so a “Highway of Death” on the road to Moscow.
ObeseNosferatu’s little coup is the classic evidence against “+1σ”: it’s also evidence as to why the Industrial Revolution didn’t start in the Pale of Settlement – nor did the Enlightenment; nor did the Renaissance; nor did the Golden Age of Exploration…
These chumps are none too bright. I’m a Mason: let me just say ‘closed networking beats competence, every time‘.
Everywhere they’re found in numbers, Prigozhin and his co-ethnics advance beyond their numbers through nepotism, not nous.
It has been ever thus.
>> Now Surovikin has disappeared;
Yea, right. He used to post daily on Instagram. It’s not like he was absent from media almost all the time. It’s not like the last time he spoke was before/after Kherson retreat last year.
Gerasimov disappearing is even more striking. Most of people have never heard him speak, and are now worried that he is not calling them to tell that he is fine.
Surovikin was Spetznaz in Afghanistan and probably knows the Wagner officers personally – he would obviously be de-briefed
“There is a massive misunderstanding about the Wagner PMC. I want to try to clear up some of the confusion and erroneous assumptions.”
How do you know your understanding of the Wagner PMC isn’t just one big misunderstanding, too?
There’s a lot of that going around.
I look at the Wagner PMC as Seal Team 6, Delta Forces, Green Berets, and Special Forces all rolled into one. Except better. Much better. At least their PR is. None of this writing best sellers, cashing in crap, creating your very own click bait channel, and getting blown up by your own crazies on the target range stuff.
Wagner PMC is Colonel Kurtz in “Apocalypse Now” actually let loose to fight wars so that they are won. Wagner PMC are in the jungle. These guys get shit done. They are shooting down helicopters and aircraft and they aren’t even supposed to have ground to air systems. Now, that’s bad ass. Mythic. Epic. Historic.
Somebody in the Pentagon is looking at Wagner PMC and saying: “Now why can’t we do that?” None of this lame ass CIA and “17 Secret National Security Agencies” shit. Wrong myths, man. Wrong conspiracy theories, dude. Wrong propaganda.
your mind are ruined by watching too many western movies and glorification of military , reality is much much different because you are blinded by the mythical movie warrior instead of reality of modern soldier/mercenary in real world.
all you can scrap from your mind are movie references which have zero bearing on reality
get educated on history , real one not someting from hollywood
Well, there was Mozart, but it was all a bit of an embarrassment.
Second, no US special forces have ever operated under modern combined arms warfare. Experience is the only teacher – not Hollywood.
Good morning Larry, in the last few days there has been a rumor that in Belarus the barracks were ready to host Wagner. According to the official narrative, Wagner’s men who participated in the insurrection were guaranteed to be able to flee to Belarus in exchange for their renunciation of marching on Moscow. But then what’s the point of them going there as an organized force and not as mere exiles?
After the initial failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the inertia of the war seems to be all in Russia’s favor. The Western failure to defeat Russia first with economic sanctions and then on the battlefield would appear to be a fact. Apart from the use of atomic weapons (or a successful attack on the Zaporizhie atomic power plant), the United States and its allies do not seem to have many cards left to play: in any case, it would be a question of unleashing the third world war with the inevitable consequences. As far as I understand the only event that could put all the cards in the game is the outbreak of a rainbow revolution in Belarus.
So I ask you: what’s the point of the Russians allowing the traitors of Wagner to move to Belarus? Who guarantees them that the Wagnerites, disappointed and humiliated by the defeat, will not agree with the Westerners to overthrow Lukashenko?
I remind you that President Putin has always given himself the image of a reliable statesman who respects his commitments, but he is still the man who came to power thanks to the Skuratov affair which has always appeared as a huge trap made by former members of the KGB against President Yeltsin and his entourage of oligarchs
This bullshit in Syria is the same farcical Empire shit that France and England did in the early- to mid-1900s.
“Syrian Democratic Forces”: US-funded regime-change militia that has FUCK ALL to do with ‘democracy’ in any sense of the word (and especially not the ‘rainbow woke child-molester’ version favoured by the US).
During the pre-Sykes-Picot days, the French were the ones trying to retain a foothold in Syria; the English were the ones who periodically funded and aided the people trying to get the French to fuck off back to where they came from. The book “The Line in the Sand” covers this period really comprehensively: it as EuroTrash being EuroTrash.
Now it’s Uncle Shlomo doing the same shit, but with slightly better marketing/perception-management/narrative-control.
I despise Prigozhin – “ObeseNosferatu” (kek) in my taxonomy – but he had more right to be on Syrian soil than literally any American who was ever born (or in the case of the neocons, who was ever shat). What they did at Khashan was retarded – but it wasn’t as clear-cut as is being made out: the Russians would have like for the US detachment to have been wiped out, but had to ‘permit’ the Musicians to be subjected to “Sonderbehandlung” at the hands of US forces. (Wagner’s losses weren’t that bad, as these things go… but they weren’t nothing).
As with Afghanistan during the Soviet period, the Russian military presence in Syria exists at the invitation of the rightful, internationally-recognised, sovereign government of Syria – namely, that of Bashar al-Assad.
On German MSM I read this: “Poland wants to strengthen the border because of Wagner troops – Duda said that “the question arises as to what the purpose of this transfer is. What are the true intentions of the Wagner Group, that is, the Russian army, in Belarus?”
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/polen-belarus-grenze-wagner-100.html
Armed uprising of PMC «Wagner»
Wagner was abused by putschists
“The idea of the United States is that the fire of war spreads to Russian soil and to the territory of Western Europe.A civil war on Russian territory is supposed to lead to the disintegration of Russia. A number of puppet states will then arise on Russian soil, which can be plundered.”
https://fktdeutsch-wordpress-com.translate.goog/2023/06/30/der-bewaffnete-aufstand-der-pmc-wagner/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Hier der Original-Link:
https://fktdeutsch.wordpress.com/2023/06/30/der-bewaffnete-aufstand-der-pmc-wagner/
Sometimes I ask to myself if this Prigozhin show is not but a bait put by Russian authorities to identify some traitors inside the military operation and see how the west would behave knowing any weakness inside Russia.
Obviously everything was very well planed by Putin & Co., as we could see with the easy and quickly solution of the “coup”.
Wagner PMC probably will survive but “unter vier Augen” as the germans say.
The issue should be left in cold storage for some time. In 1-2 months we will know more.
There is too much analytical speculation and too few reliable, intelligence-based background facts.
It is well known that the Russians are masters of deception.
True. This kerfuffle exposed many things. Very few analysts kept their feet on the ground, and restrained themselves from going into fantasy stuff. It’s sad to see people from skeptical side of Internet swallowing all that.
Thanks for the link.
Interesting theory that Medwedew shall be the brain behind the coup; this based on a visit of the factory where the TU-204 und TU-214 is produced he allegedly had tried to stop.
The bets are off with this coup!
Three types of people in the world.
Those who MAKE things happen
Those who KNOW what happened
Those who WONDER what on earth happened
Wagner is not the only Russian PMC. I believe there are more than 37. With the Russian constitution (and the fact that the Russian government actually follows their own laws), they are vital since troops cannot be deployed at genocidal whim. Wagner is not going anywhere; they will just get a change of management.
And the prison recruiting was fucking brilliant. Wagner has borne the brunt of casualties. And they were convicts! You reduced a societal load, cut prison expenses, and had casualties no one worried about. During a period of time where you were ramping up your industrial military production and mobilizing regular troops.
Contrast this to news in the USA. There is an article today about military recruitment. Typically, we have a warrior class here. It has been a family business. Recruiters are now finding that parents are telling their children NOT to join. I had daughters so no issues. But I would have bitch slapped a son that tried to join. And knee capped him if he persevered.
While Russian military recruitment has grown. The Western insane propaganda, the Wagner coup fiasco, the winning in Ukraine? All these have Russians joining and loving their own country. Versus the self-loathing our government has induced in the USA.
Based on pure threat assessments? Russia is the dominant force in the world. They have proven warriors. They have a self-contained and fulfilling society that has products the world cannot live without. China is not a threat. Their Army is Iron Rice Bowls that got their ass kicked by Vietnam. Their economy only works if they can trade cheap labor for the resources they vitally need. And their demographics are on a doom loop they will not recover from.
Ukraine is not an outlier. Russia is the real threat if you want the US hegemon to survive. Which is why my personal threat level is so high. Imperial Rome cannot allow Russia to survive. This will escalate.
Both Russia and China are the “Barbarians at the Gate.” Now we just have to find out which gate is the gate. The United States is so delusional as to think the gate is some NATO border. Those gate days are over.
Both Russia and China have Barbarians at the gates.
If by “both Russia and China have Barbarians at the Gates” then I must assume you mean the United States (surrounding Russia and China with all these very expensive bases and vassal allies). That only works if the Barbarians you speak of (the United States) are a like a Monty Python barbarians: “Run Away! Run Away!” Or Monty Python Roman Centurions: “Bigus Dickus.”
LGBT+Bandera barbarians are more of a Rubber Dickus kind, which is confirmed by the reports from the Borderland, aka gate.
Sorry Curt, but China’s labour ain’t cheap any more, and their demographics aren’t in a doom loop.
China’s products are cheap for 2 reasons:
– a complete, well integrated supply chain, from basic materials to hi-tech mfg
– a govt bureaucracy that’s focussed on keeping it that way
As for its demographics, China is indeed going headlong into the same demographic downsizing as is happening across all developed countries. However, in its case they’re:
[a.] starting from a very large number, and
[b.] their increases in productivity per worker will stand them in reasonably good stead.
There’ll be a hard patch as the current generation of elders dies out but that will stabilize. More importantly, the Chinese culture demands that the young take care of the old, so grandma and grandpa move in to take care of the house and grand kids as Mom & Pop go to work. The elderly are not the “burden on society” as in the West. They facilitate the productivity increase. Not everywhere, and not everyone, but often enough to make a critical difference.
The “China threat” is real. Its real economic power is far beyond anyone else’s. So far beyond that the financial threats that the West can bring to bear are, much like Russia, water off a duck’s back when aren’t boomeranging back to sender. Soon its financial power will have built sufficiently on its economic power to overwhelm the West’s.
The West’s strategic blunder was due to normalcy bias masking the fact that its military and financial power ain’t what they used to be, and are now no match for the real thing militarily, and soon enough financially as well.
Its “Oh shit” military moment is dawning now, the financial will come before the decade is out. I think it’ll be well before.
I appreciate your thoughtful and reasoned reply. Things are moving so fast these days we shall see shortly! This will be the decade that determines the next century.
“There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”… and there are decades where centuries happen. We’re in one of them.
Highly recommended on the current front situation:
The author seems to have access to real-time sources.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-storm-shadow-interception
Such images were to be avoided at all costs:
https://t.me/intelslava/49534
Spectacular and shocking at the same time.
In order to be spectacular and shocking, it would have to be the other way around.
How can the US sink so low as to steal Syrian oil to this very day, used to pay for useful terrorists?
President Trump ordered a Syria exit, refused by General Mattis, usually a court martial offense.
As far as I can see Gen. “mad Dog” Mattis went rogue, while Prigozhin, the rogue, chanced his arm.
Gen. Mattis and Cook Prigozhin are both rogues. Likely there are uniformed RF rogues being rounded up right now.
And the US has not yet solved its takeover in a coup against Trump, while Russia has.
Actually Mattis resigned and his successors refused yet again. Swamp creatures have slippery tails!
Meanwhile :
Raytheon Calls in Retirees to Help Restart Stinger Missile Production
The shoulder-fired missile is one of the weapons that’s been credited with getting Ukraine through the early days of the Russian invasion
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/06/raytheon-calls-retirees-help-restart-stinger-missile-production/388067/
LOL! Stingers?
“How can the US sink so low as to steal Syrian oil to this very day, used to pay for useful terrorists?”
Low? They didn’t exterminate population, nor even put them into (sexual) slavery. They don’t even have mandatory LGBT for kids. This is as high as it gets.
Talking about coups – Tucker on Twitter :
https://twitter.com/i/status/1673861273401049089
Tucker predicts Gavin Newsom will replace Joe Biden as de facto 2024 Democrat Presidential Nominee, labels him “leader of the coup”
Tucker says Newsom, Biden’s new-found best friend, will be even more ruthless.
newsom already has displayed clot shot damage (Guillain-Barré syndrome), so hopefully will stroke out soon enough. Tick tock, micro blood clot….
Both Russia and China are the “Barbarians at the Gate.” Now we just have to find out which gate is the gate. The United States is so delusional as to think the gate is some NATO border. Those gate days are over.
John Helmer, a well-respected blogger in Moscow (johnhelmer.net), claims that Shoigu was actually physically in Rostov, when Prigozhin arrived there. This would be another indication that the Wagner boss was well covered and under GRU control well before the Lukashenko phone call.
Talking about coups and rogues, NATO’s Atlantic press published this :
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/all-enemies-foreign-and-domestic-open-letter-gen-milley/167625/
An open call then for JCS Gen. Milley to use military force against Trump.
Defenseone is owned by billionaire Laurene Powell Jobs , the VP Harris money bags.
Why am I the only one to see/say that Putin did this ?
Either he lost control of his Frankenstein monster by way of spectacular absence of any leadership 6 monts ago ,
or he ordered a very toxic maskirovka because he’s no leader and weaseling is the only way he knows how to replace people.
I reject this sensible explanation in favor of more dramatic and unlikely explanations because clown world problems require clown world solutions.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-close-approving-cluster-bombs-banned-120-countries-ukraine
Yea, I would say Putin is close to attacking decision centers outside of Ukraine.
Simplicus on the anatomy of the Storm Shadow interception
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-storm-shadow-interception
Forward Observer’s blurb for today:
Good morning, and welcome to the Global SITREP for Friday, 30 June 2023. (You can read this brief online here.)
FIRST UP: Zelensky orders Ukraine forces to strengthen the northern approach to Kiev in response to Wagner forces movement to Belarus.
Wagner Chief Prigohzin will now work out of Belarus as part of the post-coup agreement with Putin.
Belarus is constructing camps for upwards of 25,000 Wagner fighters expected to arrive in the country in the near future.
Why It Matters: Prigohzin and Wagner PMC arriving in Belarus puts a combat-tested army corps-sized force on Ukraine’s northern approach to Kiev. Ukrainian military leaders must honor the threat, whether Wagner is there to march on Kiev or not. This repositioning of forces will require at least some of Ukraine’s Western-trained assault brigades to be moved from the counteroffensive on the Donbas front to protect the northern lines of communication out of Kiev – a deft move by Russia, or at a minimum, a silver lining to an embarrassing internal spat. – M.M.
The GRU is not the Russian equivalent of the CIA. It is more like the DIA.
A commentary in the www,suggests
that the Ukrainian ” business idea” , is to fight the Russians for their wes-tern handlers purpose, and then be paid with billions in support for their social system, wages, healt systems, and for those older and retired. It seems like that, no doubt. Maybe EU, will give them Russian sanctioned money, on top of that?
Sweden’s business idea, is to fight for the US, as in Afghanistan, 15 years, in total 7.500 personnel, then a stint against Libya 2011,with Jas-fighters, but for what, those nations
are not a threat, but Sweden here act like a hired gun, for US, but just like
a mercenary state,destroying the
Libya welfarestate, the same way
back home.
Terrible to kill people, not your enemies, for a future membership in Nato, that maybe not arrives, as Sweden even assisted the Kurds, Turkeys insurgents, and by that was hanged out to dry of Turkey, but Erdogan vetoed Swedish Nato-application, since 2022. – Uh, the Russians are coming to take us! But
they got another fish to fry in the pan
but never say never.
But what a barbaric morale, Sweden,
killing poor people far away, for her
own future security, (maybe) aint that the criminal gangster morale,
disgusting, Ukraine killed even in
Afghanistan, and Iraq. Sweden and
Ukraine, brothers-in-arms, but two dirty rogue states.
To that, about 275 gangster killings since 2017,domestic in the streets, immigrant gangs kill each other, using teenagers to shot teenagers, hired killers, for the drugmarkets, they are to young to be punished, only some years, its like a Civil war in Sweden, but the soldiers of fortune, morale is accepted in the foreign policy,as in the gangquarters. Think this is the equivalent to the US ordinary schoolshootings.
Larry,
Dear Sir !
Wagner’s incursion into a city of 1 million inhabitants – Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh – was not an insurrection as it has been described.
I spare you the unbearable and boring military-technical descriptions already repeated a thousand times ad nauseam, by all-knowing bloggers and retired soldiers on television channels and social media.
No, it is not and was not an insurrection as it has been described.
In one of your chronicles -a few days ago-
you briefly elaborated on the reasons that motivated these events…
Events that was widely advertised by Ukraine as Counter Offensive and/or all out offensive. Among them it was emphasized that the Russian civilian population and the Russian military first lines of defense would be so terrorized, -by something that would contain this ferocious attack- that the Russian military and Russian citizens in Moscow, seized with panic, would impose the conditions to divide
the structures in charge of power and therefore of the Government in the Kremlin.
Thus, the next stage would’ve been a disagreement between members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff into positions opposed to the current government in Moscow.
However, – President Putin for 20 years rebuilt the Russian Secret Services – all categories included- with secret services within the secret services…
– Matrioshkas by dozens – Matrioshkas everywhere…
Start in 2022 the russian Special Military Operation was laughing matters for us !
with its apparent disorder and failure and still today is for us as phenomenally incomprehensible.
As incomprehensible this Matrioshkas exhibit collection is about in
‘Rostov-on-Don’ Juin 2023.
The Doll that we see here is a huge Matrioshka. Inside each one is embedded another one, a dozen small precious matrioshkas, all the same colors and varnishes. But each one of them -from the largest to the smallest- carries and important different meaning.
An efficient secret service works the unknown of the equation and in the twelve matrioshkas there is a secret and. But then if there is no secret, they build one and then transfer acts and purposes from one doll to another…and back.
The Moscow Matrioshkas got exposed a mistaken and incompetent work of the current secret services of NATO and the United Kingdom.
Later in that afternoon ‘The Bolshoi Ballet’ performed the most beautiful and moving ‘russkly maskarad’ and even Anna Karenina – always on board a train – made us cry with emotion from Saint Petersburg to somewhere…
When we go to a luxury restaurant with family, the host of the restaurant is at the reception and leads us to our reserved table and installs us.
Then a waiter brings us the menu and another takes the command of our dinner. None of them is the Owner of the Restaurant, only employees.
In the meantime there is a fire in the kitchen, pots that overheat and food is lost or even a dispute about bills, a dispute between waiters and tables or supplies that have not yet arrived, but we customers do not find out.
O M G ! again, – Rostov-on-Don – is part of the Russian culture !
Matrioshkas performing at the Bolshoi Ballet in Moscow !
Nothing to do with an insurrection…
You need to see this on YouTube. Absolutely Unbelievable!! (translated to grammer is a little off)
ttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCCwc8F99XA
‘We all know who like to talk to use while he’s high’ – Ukrainian citizen
Ever wondered who the masses of polite armed men (dressed all in green with no insignia whatsoever) were in the Donbass nine years ago? Kicking Ukie ass after Maidan? Not us, said Russia. Well, same deal as Syria.
So, this blog entry is but a theory. About when Priggy first went off the rails — this claims it’s due to his Wagner guys getting pummeled by the US in Syria. Just another theory, because Syria was five years ago, and since then Wagner soldiers fought bravely for Russia in the SMO.
What, was Priggy still holding an old grudge a year ago? Tell me another one. He got delusions of grandeur last fall when he first started talking sh!t to promote his own business interests. More bodies in Wagner, more funds direct from the Russian Defense Department to pay their salaries. Mobilization? Great! More funds for supplying the entire Russian Army with food under exclusive contract, no less, per Putin Monday night. Me big musician chief, me beat Ukraine for you — pay up to the tune of well over $2 billion equivalent a year. A financial audit? What’s that when it’s at home, Shoigu? Send more free artillery shells, you incompetent cheapskate!
Nobody in the West, Russia or the blogosphere went on endlessly about Priggy and his mores before last fall. Now after whatever that was a week ago in Rostov, they’re all johnny-come-lately geniuses on his character and motives. On the independent opinion side, gotta keep the blog stories rolling. New content every day. More red meat for the dogs. Then the leading talking heads have an earnest Youtube conflab once or twice a week and act as if they were the last word on the matter du jour, while congratulating each other on their fabulous insights.
Bah. Humbug.
Yup, to me, this claim today is merely one of a dozen or more uh-huh-sure theories pulled out of someone or other’s left ear recently, and about as likely as any other. As in, not. The only essay I’ve read that has any consistent logic to it throughout is Big Serge’s latest. The rest are mere amateur hour soundbites of the day. From people who once were in the loop, a loop that has greatly changed from the time they exited government service, mostly during Trump’s time. The crashing bore Martyanov has his arguments, and he’s always right, he tells you to your face — because everyone else is dumber than dumb on military matters except him. Ritter and MacGregor routinely get it wrong on an over-and-over-again basis. This blog got the current rules surrounding military temps like Texeira accessing top secret documents all wrong. The Euro bloggers and Toobers I watched a couple of times, well lah di dah. Nothing to write home about. Etcetera. Ad nauseam. Pfft.
Two weeks from now, what’ll be the theory du jour then, eh? For that matter, what will the subject even be? God only knows. All I hope is that Putin has some control in Russia, because I detest the US neocon bureaucracy and its constant bloody country insurgencies on behalf of the fat cats and big corporate business. Nobody else matters to them. While the USA physically deteriorates around the feet of the federal and state governments, people get paid relatively less and less, rents and food inflate like crazy, homelessness goes wild, and nobody at the top gives a good goddam. It’s all China’s fault, right? Not theirs.
Now there’s plausible deniability bullsh!t of the American kind. Blame foreigners for domestic problems, why not. Hate them, they’re evil and it’s legal and we say so. Same kind of irrational hate is legal with Russkies. All racist BS to cover up spending half the budget on the military and hangers-on, even more of the remainder on big-agriculture and oil subsidies, all on behalf of the asshole big guys shaping the narrative, the ultimate Marie Antoinettes of today. No bread, no home, no health care, living in a camper van because your job pays jacksh!t? Well, hell — eat cake then! America!
Surovikin has not disappeared. He is doing his job as usual. To the extent that Wagner was employed by the Syrian government on their own territory — under Syrian command – they are protected . The US forces which are in Syrian territory without a declaration of war, however, are rogue forces and may be killed at will.
None of this discussion explains how $6.2-billion US tax dollars ended up in Russian Federal bank accounts, boss of Wagner now in Belarus, and ALL charges have been dropped. All Wagner forces (about 25-thousand troops) have returned to previous stations, including interdicting Ukrainian forces, and chasing Euro forces out of places like the Sudan.
History, however long or short, has little bearing on a case, in which, it is obvious that Russia sandbagged the western powers (NATO w the US) in order to force expenditures which strangle the entire euro theatre.
Which is exactly what is happening. Meanwhile, US weapons manufacturers are making money with large orders from Europe, and the EU continues its horrific de-monetization because they MUST now purchase petro reserves from people like INDIA (also sourced from Russia) because the US and Finland have cut the Nordstream 1 and 2 pipelines from Russia into the EU (Seymore Hersch).
Russia had to shut down these pipes outright because flows into the Crimean Sea would have destroyed its environment.
If I didn’t know better (and I don’t) I would think the commander of Wagner and Putin had cooked this whole thing up as an example of ‘Deep Battle’ psychology. And it has worked brilliantly.
Russian GDP for this year is $15-trillion. Twice the Russian GDP only 5-years ago. Ultimately, this whole thing is an economic war.
Russia continues to win…
you want me to believe that over five years ago, in early 2018, US special forces were in Syria guarding conoco’s oil fields, and “troops were massing” said to be Geny and his guys. Then, this oligarch who survived and thrived in the Russian political mine field, takes a side hustle from an unnamed local war lord to attack (alleged) the opposition headquarters. (a military objective or perhaps an employee there was hitting on the warlords daughter?) Russian MoD disavows all knowledge and all responsibility (per contract?). US hits Geny n’ guys and for this unforgivable betrayal, after all that’s gone down in Qkrine and Bachmut, Geny does revenge and goes after the MoD, with arms of course.
Somewhere in this story, an i is missing it’s dot or a t is missing it’s cross.
OCICBW