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U.S. Intelligence Community Sending Mixed Messages on Ukraine

3 September 2023 by Larry Johnson 147 Comments

The U.S. Intelligence Community is not a monolith. It is more like a feudal society. The big three Feudal lords for intelligence analysis are the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the National Security Agency (NSA) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). All three produce “raw intelligence” — the CIA’s case officers produce reports from foreigners who have agreed to work in secret for the United States, the NSA scoops up all forms of electronic intelligence (e.g., phone calls, emails) and the DIA produces reports from U.S. Defense Attaches assigned to U.S. embassies around the world. Each jealously guards its own product and the employees of these three agencies can be considered the vassals. (Gots to have a vassal if you’re a feudal lord.)

Then there is the Director of National Intelligence (aka DNI). This position/office was created in the aftermath of 9-11 and is supposed to “manage” and “coordinate” all members of the Intelligence Community. The standard solution in Washington, DC is to create another layer of bureaucracy to solve a failure of already behemoth bureaucracies who rarely cooperate. The reality is something else — the Big 3 do not always kow tow to the DNI. I am hearing that the CIA and the DIA are doing a pretty good job of reporting honestly what is taking place on the ground in Ukraine — i.e., Ukraine is suffering terrible casualties and the counter offensive is failing. Unfortunately, as Sy Hersh has reported previously, Biden and his National Security team are ignoring those intelligence reports and are embracing “analysis” coming out of the Office of the DNI.

The DNI reportedly is proffering the meme that Ukraine is grinding down the Russian military and that the United States and NATO only need to be patient and wait for Russia’s inevitable collapse. Some of the U.S. military leaders — who are flat out ignorant of Russia’s recent history in dealing with a domestic radical Islamic insurgency — firmly believe that Russia cannot win a military victory over Ukraine, that the war is a stalemate and the Russia will be bogged down for years battling Bandera insurgents.

The leaders of the USIC and the military still believe in their initial conclusion that Russia is weak because it did not steamroll through Ukraine and rout Zelensky off 12 months ago. They attribute Russia’s “failure” to inept and corrupt bureaucrats keen on reining in the Russian military. Putin also gets a heavy share of the blame by these leaders for allegedly not listening to the Russian military leaders and Wagner chiefs to do what is necessary to achieve victory. Putin and his team are seen in the West as weak, control freaks who block the military from taking off the white gloves and making the magic happen.

Because the US intelligence and military leaders are looking at the war in Ukraine through this prism, the analysts and their managers, for the most part, face enormous pressure to conclude that Russia is a feckless and incompetent near-peer adversary and cannot last.

I continue to believe that the assumptions about Russia’s alleged failure is ignoring the contravening narrative:

  • The Russian economy is robust and healthy despite Western sanctions.
  • Russia’s political influence in the world is growing, not shrinking. BRICS is a case in point.
  • Russia is inflicting enormous casualties on Ukraine’s military and decimating infrastructure critical to the Ukrainian military campaign.
  • Russia’s defense industry has ramped up to levels of production that the West cannot match.
  • Russia’s seemingly unlimited access to natural resources, energy and rare earth minerals strengthens Russia’s military position in the world.
  • Russia enjoys a massive technological advantage over NATO in terms of electronic warfare, air defense systems, mine laying vehicles and hypersonic missiles.
  • Russian leaders and their people genuinely believe they face an existential threat from the West.
  • Ukraine is totally dependent on the West to provide money and weapons to continue to fight.

The refusal of Western leaders, especially the Biden crew, to entertain this alternative narrative is creating more risk with each passing day. False or mistaken assumptions about why Russia is doing what it is doing carries an enormous risk of miscalculation on the part of the United States and its NATO allies.

Ukraine’s ability to sustain the on-going counter offensive diminishes with each passing day. Reports that the West is going to pressure Ukraine to go on a complete, mobilized war footing and train a new army of 300,000 men is delusional. Unlike Russia, which outnumbers Ukraine by a factor of at least 8, Ukraine does not have a healthy, young pool of potential recruits. Even if Zelensky and his Generals could mobilize 300k or more, where are they going to train and how much training will they really receive. New recruits assigned to operate battle tanks are looking at a training cycle of at least 12 months just to acquire minimal competence to maneuver and fire. If they start in October those new bodies would not be ready until September 2024 at the earliest.

All of this talk of Ukrainian mobilization and new training ignores the fact that Russia will have a say in the matter. Moscow will not be sitting still. Russia’s plethora of long range fires, for example, means that there is no secure training base in Ukraine. Training will have to be done at multiple locations in Europe and there are growing signs that Europe’s leaders are tired of hosting Ukrainian recruits. And there is the prospect looming over NATO and Ukraine that Russia will launch its own offensive to further weaken Ukraine’s ability to resist and capture new territory.

One other major questionable assumption — the rest of the world stays quiet and their are no other foreign policy crises that distract America and/or Europe. Given the coups in Africa and tensions with China, that does not seem to be a safe bet.

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Justin Glyn says

    3 September 2023 at 22:09

    Thanks for that backgrounder! Do you believe that Ray McGovern is right when he suggests that this could go nuclear when the arms and/or troops run out? Or do the feudal lords and/or the Pentagon have the ability or means to prevent such a horror?

    Reply
    • Larry Johnson says

      3 September 2023 at 22:18

      I’m not sure. I think it is a coin toss.

      Reply
      • Jimmy Walter says

        4 September 2023 at 00:31

        If they go nuclear, the gravy train stops – no more weapons needed, so no more bought. Vietnam, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, even South Korea and NATO troops, and more, all prove they never want the wars to stop! Moreover, they do not want to fight a war on their “homeland”.

        They are sinister, but not stupid.

        (I hope I am right)

        Reply
        • Mac says

          4 September 2023 at 01:30

          They have sort of a Catch-22 inside a Catch-22. Russia’s winning with a 10-1 kill rate on the Ukrainians, and has no need to speed things up, just grind away carefully destroying Ukraine’s military and NATO’s hardware. The inside Catch-22 is that Ukraine has no more bodies, so to keep things going they need NATO bodies, which aren’t likely to come. The other Catch-22 is if they don’t go nuke, they get humiliated, and it’s the end of NATO and their MIC gravy train, but if they do go nuke, it’s all over, no gravy train, and hundreds of millions dead, and no MIC left either.

          We’ll see and hear some real gnashing of teeth as they all go apoplectic with no options that don’t entail losing. It’s like somebody put them in a round room and told them to pee in the corner. They keep looking for the corner.

          They have never been in a situation like this where they created their own existential crisis by trying to put Russia in an existential crisis. Irony at its best.

          Reply
          • JC says

            4 September 2023 at 14:39

            The solution, as always, is to create a larger crisis to move the existing one off the world stage. Covid 2.0, or Taiwan, or an African civil war, or Armenia+Iran vs. Azerbaijan+Turkey, or… or… or.

            Escalate elsewhere until the conclusion of the Ukraine fiasco is a footnote in history. Except for the dead and ruined, of course.

            But in the meantime the fun will be within the halls of DC, as the Neocon anti-Russian fascists will have to in some fashion put the Mackinder/Crown project on hold. Again.

          • MichaelWme says

            4 September 2023 at 14:59

            The Brilliant NATO commanders are sure the ‘outmoded and inept’ Soviet nukes are out of date, the Russians don’t know how to use them, most won’t work, and NATO air defenses and a massive first strike against undefended Soviet nukes (Russia do not have any effective air defence systems; the Ukrainians proclaimed that the supposedly destroyed Patriot took out every Russian attack missile and is still in perfect shape, that Russian video of a Patriot being destroyed is just Photoshopped, and NATO believe all this as undeniably TRVE).
            As Tom Lehrer sang, ‘So long Mom, I’m off to drop the bomb
            So don’t wait up for me.’
            Seymour Hersh said all the poison weapons used in Syria, officially a war crime by the unspeakably evil Assad, were all given to al-Qaeda by the US for a False Flag attack, and now the US are saying Russia are about to use a nuke, so there will probably be a false flag attack, blamed on Russia and given as an excuse for nuclear retaliation, but actually a False Flag by NATO.

          • JohnNY K says

            5 September 2023 at 08:07

            Poland is starting the forced repatriation of male Ukrainian refugees, that’s where they
            wil the “more bodies”! Check it out! I am in Budapest visiting my wife in hospital and this is what I hear from Hungarian friends IMHO!

          • Resistere says

            9 September 2023 at 17:25

            That MI CC gravy train so needs to end up in the junk yard ditch.

        • MTP says

          4 September 2023 at 02:59

          This interview is from 11 years ago. Milner predicted that there would be accidents involving Navy trains as Kitsap County grew. That came true. In June a Navy train collided with a dump truck crossing their tracks. The local quarry expanded operations and the public didn’t want dump trucks on public roads, so the quarry created their own road. The Navy runs powerful explosives and weapons grade uranium on the tracks, (fuel for the reactors), but no nuclear weapons anymore. Those are shipped via truck most likely.

          The other prediction Milner made is that ‘tactical’ nukes would be used someday. The interview goes into detail. He is probably right about that, too. I think there are people in our government dumb enough to do that.

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-b8G5MTd9g

          Reply
        • k. talaat says

          4 September 2023 at 07:43

          Jimmy… that’s a good way of looking at it.
          If they go nuke all their DC MacMansions and exotic cars would go up in smoke.
          Yes, the name of the game is perpetuity. They’ll put looting Russia’s resources on hold, being a tough nut to break, and pivot to Africa with all its natural resources and since the natives aren’t Europeans, it will not matter much how many die.

          Reply
          • Fasteddiez says

            4 September 2023 at 12:45

            Yes ,In theory on your last, but The US Black soldiery might frown, given orders to repeat a My Lai style operation. I can picture a uniformed hack announcing “We had to destroy Ubanga Wanga, in order to save it.”

        • Tom Hickey says

          4 September 2023 at 09:22

          “They are sinister, but not stupid.”

          I think (hope) this is right. They don’t want to die themselves. And to remind them of the reality they face, Putin made a point yesterday of saying that Sarmat II is fired up and can hit any spot on the planet. Nothing they have can stop it .

          Reply
        • AG says

          4 September 2023 at 11:10

          Yep.
          But the “mistake” is the real issue.
          We know that the “fail-safe” has failed us many dozen times already.
          It was thus up to individuals to disregard orders/chain of command, or thanks to missiles misfiring (Black Sea incident in autumn).
          So we are still around due to positive “coin tossing” outcomes only.
          aka: we were lucky bastards so far.

          Reply
        • Baron says

          4 September 2023 at 15:59

          You are more likely right than wrong, Jimmy, what the industrial-military complex needs is regional conflicts, the more and the longer lasting the better, that’s what beefs up the bottom lines of the corporates in the sector, not a global conflict, and certainly not a nuclear global confrontation.

          Image if one of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles the Satan-II were to get through the US defence shield and hit the territory of the Republic, matters not where, anywhere will do, what would the reaction of the American unwashed be?

          Would they unite and demand an identical response, insist Russia gets pulverised knowing that another Satan or more could hit, or will they call for common sense to prevail, talks to begin, peace to return?

          More to the point, why use nuclear warheads, there are other inhuman charges the missiles could carry, chemical or biological, equally deadly as nuclear for the humans but not for the assets.

          All in all, as you say, they may be sinister but stupid they are not, the deployment of strategic or even tactical nukes is unlikely.

          Reply
        • William Wallace says

          4 September 2023 at 20:54

          I’m a Christian and see the world as suffering from the effects of Original Sun and the Fall. Pride leads to Hubris and the West has that in spades. All bets are off and often in history people make choices that are not in their best interest.

          Reply
          • DALE FERGUSON says

            4 September 2023 at 21:26

            I like Christian perspectives. I believe I found the verse that shares your ideas, Ecclesiastes 7:29 (KJV) “Lo, this only have I found, that God hath made man upright; but they have sought out many inventions.”

          • Pope says

            5 September 2023 at 08:10

            In other words, you blame the victim.

      • Spanky says

        4 September 2023 at 02:23

        Prior to Biden’s Presidency, and despite long-held negative opinions of many US policies and acts both abroad and at home, I never thought any previous US government would instigate and support an openly acknowledged, all-out, existential proxy war against a nuclear-armed peer in their European near abroad…

        And, now they’ve seen fit to do that, the bi-partisan chickenhawks and wastrels in the Administration and Congress seem awful anxious to rush into an air, sea and land war in Asia…

        So, launch a nuclear first strike in a fit of desperation or pique of temper in the near future? Given everything going on (and WWIII), it unfortunately seems all too possible.

        But I hope you’re right too, Jimmy, even if it is just normalcy bias kicking in.

        Reply
        • Jimmy Walter says

          4 September 2023 at 03:11

          On the nuclear path, my bet would be a false flag, tactical nuclear attack on the Ukrainians by the Ukrainians/NATO, aka USA, using an old Soviet bomb or its essence. Problem is the escalation. Once a nuke goes off, all incoming ordinance will HAVE to be treated as if it were nuclear – no time to think about it.

          And then how would China react? If they see the US using nukes in the Ukraine, that might be their trip wire to neutralize Taiwan – if not invade.

          And, again, the real Powers that be are not stupid, they must know this. The military certainly knows this. And, according to Larry, the real spies below the DNI, certainly know this. So I am still favoring no nuke explosions.

          Reply
          • Giandavide says

            4 September 2023 at 05:11

            if ukraine is nuked, russia and belraus will be contaminated too. so it will probably cause a nuclear response, according to the russian doctrine. and the hope that russians will believe that ukrainians have done everything alone, and they in response will throw another nuclear bomb near their state border, is wishful thinking. i think that’s why analyst sometimes talk about a decapitations strike

      • A P says

        4 September 2023 at 08:43

        One fact that wasn’t on the list is that Russia can eliminate the overwhelming majority of US nuke installations (they know where the “fixed” ones are) and nuke-capable surface ships, air/navy bases with Conventional Hypersonic Weapons. Anywhere on the planet, sitting ducks that even the vaunted Patriot AD systems have been proven unable to protect.

        Putin AGAIN told the US/ZATO morons that just the other day. The few US sub-based nukes would be too little too late to make any real difference, just destruction for destruction’s sake… like the Ukie Nazis firing drones at Russian civilian targets.

        The World has had more than enough of the US/ZATO insanity and is trying to send a message to the US public.

        That message: “You and your families WILL DIE in WW3”. Funny how self-preservation trumps even the stupidest and tightly ingrained false “indispensable” notions.

        The US public needs to be brought to understand WW3 WILL be fought on North American soil. And the NeoCons are prepared to sacrifice even more US citizens/soldiers than they have in Ukraine. The Rothschild Class wants population reduction by any means… see the stealth-killer Covid mRNA jabs as proof of how little our lives mean to them.

        But as Forrest Gump says, “stupid is as stupid does”.

        Reply
        • JC says

          4 September 2023 at 14:44

          The only deterrence that could be effective versus the West would be to tangibly impress on the Rothschild Class that they and their entire extended families will go first in an exchange.

          Reply
      • Larry P. Johnson says

        4 September 2023 at 09:43

        Larry, I always looked at Russian and Belarus troops stationed in that country was either a blocking force against Polish forces entering Western Ukraine, and/or to isolate Kiev from the West when Russia finally moves (?) to the Dnieper River. It suggests that Russia might not consider moving to the Polish border and risking a nuclear war but still block Polish forces. How about a compromise with forces from Belarus used to block Ukrainian forces from being pushed West and Russian/Belarus forces avoiding the border area and hence demonstrating Russian intentions not to threaten Poland unless it misbehaves?

        At the same time Poland and the lunkheads in Washington must be worried about the Belarus force poised like a hammer to the north and it might be prudent to move those forces to the south east toward the Dnieper to demonstrate their purpose and seal the Ukrainian forces in to the east.

        And I agree with you that moving toward the Polish border would be a serious provocation.

        Reply
        • Rokossovsky says

          4 September 2023 at 13:07

          If you look at the eastern borders of present day Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine they pretty much demarcate the “high water mark” of Operation Barbarossa, 1941.

          So, look at it from the Russian side, without a single battle, NATO and the EU would have acquired more land (Drang nach Osten / Lebenstraum) than Hitler did with 153 divisions. Furthermore, such an expansion undoes everything that the Great Patriotic War was fought for and the 27 million lives it cost. Stalin would have been better off just cutting a deal with Hitler and ceding all of that land in exchange for peace. And the result of that for Russia would be the next European invasion starting from the line “Operation Typhoon” was launched from, backed by the United States and Britain.

          Maps of NAZI occupied Europe and the European Union:

          https://adaradotcom.files.wordpress.com/2019/12/eu-and-nazi-germany-maps.jpg?w=610

          Russian troops in Belarus, especially after the Western backed Color Revolution of 2020/21, and the SMO in Ukraine, are just to ensure that the completion of the above NATO/EU plan does not happen.

          Instead of direct invasion, the West now goes with coups and Color Revolutions followed by “friendly” government invitations to move Western troops in.

          Reply
          • Larry P. Johnson says

            5 September 2023 at 09:39

            Ok, this is reasonable but there is another parallel. Stalin agreed to divide up territories in a peace plan between Germany and Russia that Germany would take Poland and Russia would take Finland. Stalin did act and invaded Finland but knew that Hitler could not be trusted and was still a threat. He was correct but he may have played this for time to prepare. There is a similar situation with our present war in Ukraine, but Putin, with his lawyer face on and adherence to International law and a knowledge that dealing with the West was fraught is not prepared to agree to anything with an “agreement incapable” West. Is this situation worse than prior to Operation Barbarossa? It is at least the same.

            The present situation is likely worse and Putin is preparing for a nuclear war and one that the West apparently wants. The other side of degrading democratic institutions in the West is that the citizens are increasingly incapable of controlling their governments. In the US and elsewhere the loss of a free price ensures that the ethical roles or lack thereof keep the public completely uninformed of this danger. In the case of the US the average citizen is not particularly interested in watching this horror play out, nor does Washington wish this to change.

      • Brian says

        4 September 2023 at 10:45

        Larry , are the people in Washington who are pushing the use of tactical nuclear weapons , so stupid as not to realize the the first retaliatory missile fired from Russia would likely be aimed at Washington DC , or would saner heads in the military refuse to carry out an order from the White House to use a tactical nuclear weapon ?

        Reply
      • Galina says

        4 September 2023 at 17:49

        But Larry, “they” are ALREADY going nuclear:
        the US is announcing supplying depleted uranium shells that Brits have already supplied, as well as placing nuclear weapons in GB – clearly to intimidate (or/and provoke?) Russians!

        What is there to “toss”?

        Reply
    • Top Gum says

      4 September 2023 at 03:18

      US will not go nuclear in my opinion. They know very well, what Russia would do to something like that in response. US will only use nukes on a rather defenseless country like they did with Japan. Even Iran is to powerful for them, even thou they have no nukes yet. But their defensive and offensive capabilities are pretty impressive, so thats a no-go for the US. North Korea is also a good example. Not much what the US can do there, because they know NK will nuke them for sure if they start something serious.

      The US has relied for decades on power-projection, mainly from their navy and air force. But with long-range capabilities and other technological advances in the field of missiles all that projection has evaporated to nothing. The US and Nato have no meaningful air defense. We all know what happened with their patriot-system in Ukraine. The world is shifting towards Russia/China with their BRICS sphere. The west will have no say in this. Their political and economical influence stops right there. Once all other countries get rid of their western bribed/installed puppets, they will turn away from the west. We can see this happening in Africa already.

      The west overplayed their hand this time. That is what you get when everyone else to you is considered a vassal. Wait until the west itself sees that. They will turn on the US as well. It’s just a matter of time.

      Reply
    • bob sykes says

      4 September 2023 at 07:45

      There is no such thing as a “tactical” nuclear warhead. All nukes are strategic.

      Furthermore, nukes cannot be restricted to the battlefield. If used, they will be used against cities, infrastructure, and military bases, and they will be used all over Europe and North American. Americans will burn in their homes and at their jobs.

      Reply
      • AG says

        4 September 2023 at 11:27

        I don´t know about any 2023 assessment, but if we look into the then “controversial” studies by Keir Lieber & Daryl Press in “Foreign Affairs” in 2006 & 2013 (I think) and various articles by Ray McGovern´s lot – Counterforce (in contrast to Countervalue) attacks are the potentially biggest threat to Russia. (in case look up “Superfuze”.)

        Stealth Cruise Missiles via B2, and Tridents fired from SSBNs near RU borders are supposed to wipe out 80-90% of RU first strike capability of hardened silo ICBMs within 5 minutes before Kremlin even knows – with minimum human loss to speak of.
        (Nuclear attacks with minimum collateral damage are the NeoCons wet dream I assume.)

        What would RU do if their WMDs were destroyed but cities, civilian infrastructure unharmed?
        Would they retaliate with much more destructive attacks lacking comparable “surgical” nuclear capabilities?
        I have no clue what is going on in the Pentagon and war-gaming groups.

        Updated knowledge welcome!

        Reply
    • Ghost of Mozgovoy says

      4 September 2023 at 18:34

      Some Spanish analyst brought to attention this past day the “Iron Mountain Report”, where it is concluded that “perpetual war”, including nuclear if needed, is a necessary part of The United States of America´s metabolism for a good digestion….

      They talk about the costs of dissarmement and the reconversion that would have to take place in the USA in case of a durable peace…..

      Like the EU is a biocenosis where its members fagoticize and parasitize each other, we should conclude that the US conforms a biocenosis with the external ( to the US…) world, hence it has no allies, nor friends….
      Whomever could be turned into an enemy, if necessity arise….It does not need to make sense at all….

      They have all that studied long time ago…

      Reply
  2. Galina says

    3 September 2023 at 22:45

    Larry, I, of course, don’t doubt your knowledge about who tells what to whom in the US gov-t, but looking at all aspects of the Russian media including TV, TG and other sources, I see IN HORROR that some of the opinion of the western elite are quite correct: Although Russia is definitely not weak in resources (neither human nor any other), it is VERY RICH in bureaucracy and combined with Putin’s own reluctance for confrontation and desire to end this conflict peacefully (despite what our western media is saying about him) – seemingly to the detriment of Russia’s own interests, for some reason, does not seem to perceive itself as strong.

    I guess, the next test of its ability to withstand the political pressure will be Putin’s meeting with Erdogan. My personal fear is that it will be a huge failure because he will cave in and give in to pushy Erdogan threats and manipulation.

    Meanwhile, Americans definitely know that they have not yet used all the tools in their pressure-cooker, such as all kinds of more serious fighting vehicles they would provide very soon – hence their certainty that “Ukraine will/is winning” despite its military failures. I hear that your gov-t have already decided to relocate some of their nuclear arsenal to Britain, almost or already completed to pressure Germany (not a hard work by any means) to supply Taurus 500 km missiles and Will be sending Abrams mid-Sept with DEPLETED URANIUM shells.

    So Ray MG was right when he said that the next for Biden is tactical nukes.

    Reply
    • Paul Greenwood says

      3 September 2023 at 23:28

      There is no such thing as „tactical nukes“. They are not even used in US domestically to clear crowds or re-model slum areas.

      When USAF dropped nuclear bombs over Spain in 1966 from B-52s they left a legacyto the present day even after removing tonnes of soil to USA

      Even deploying nuclear devices near Russia will cost US its population centres. What policies does US have for removing millions of corpses from population centres after Covid and Hawaii and East Palestine have revealed American incompetence ?

      Nuclear War is the end of US existence

      Reply
      • Murray says

        4 September 2023 at 02:25

        It also means the removal of Political Donors, their businesses and their political clients across the NATO states, who started this debacle of using the Ukraine to steal Russia from the Russians. Regrettably many ordinary Americans and Brits/EU citizens, none/very few of which voted for this will go with them. Sarmat going in to service is an unmistakeable message to the gibbering Kleptocrat Idiot Biden and his crew of NATO political fools. Not safe to say only the US will be on the receiving end of this so Nuclear war is likely the end of NATOs states existence as Russia appears to have enough boom to go round.

        Reply
      • bonbon says

        4 September 2023 at 08:00

        Correct. The U.K. Lakenheath nuke storage upgrade recently reported sure looks like a quiet removal from Europe’s storage after Belarus started deploying.
        Question is what does the U.K. say about that? Weren’t they removed by referendum in 2008 or so?
        Of course the Lakenheath upgrade could be for MORE US bombs.

        Reply
        • Paul Greenwood says

          4 September 2023 at 11:50

          No such referendum. Military matters are state secrets and no one gets to vote.

          No one even knows what are in those Bases Agreements signed after 1941 nor how a single RAF Officer makes Lakenheath or Menwith Hill or Croughton somehow RAF bases staffed by USAF personnel and equipment though kn fact both Croughton and Menwith Hill are NSA

          Reply
        • Spanky says

          4 September 2023 at 12:09

          There was, published and confirmed, a *rushed* (9 to 12 months ahead of schedule) upgrade from B61-11 gravity bombs in OTAN weapons lockers to the -12 variant which can be carried by *any* OTAN combat aircraft, late last year just after the SMO commenced operations.

          Reply
    • grr says

      4 September 2023 at 00:56

      What are the “all kinds of more serious fighting vehicles they would provide very soon”.
      I bet you don’t have a clue.

      “My personal fear is that it will be a huge failure because he will cave in and give in to pushy Erdogan threats and manipulation. ”
      Your personal fears have no impact on geopolitics, and are grounded in ignorance.

      “Russia doesn’t perceive itself as strong”?
      You are deluded. The Russian general staff, the diplomats, and the Kremlin are supremely confident in their strengths and abilities.
      Have you accidentally wandered in from facebook?

      Reply
      • Victor says

        4 September 2023 at 07:38

        LOL

        Reply
      • bonbon says

        4 September 2023 at 08:06

        I was wondering what “concern trolling” and “6th column” were. Now I get it! 🙂

        Reply
        • mad cow says

          4 September 2023 at 09:17

          Bingo!

          Reply
      • mad cow says

        4 September 2023 at 09:13

        I was about to write similar comment. Why do people still think that US has some secret wunderwaffe that no one knows about? US MIC can’t even make regular stuff properly any more. Their new planes struggle with flying, and new ships struggle with sailing.

        Erdogan is all bark and no bite. The idea of him threating and manipulating Putin sounds ridiculous. All of his “extreme” actions (delivering Bayraktars, grain deal, and releasing Azovites) are miniscule in the grand scheme of things. He needs Russia to keep his economy afloat. Putin does not want to push him to USA side, and will throw him a bone. They will haggle some deal. MSM will depict it in their own way. The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.

        Reply
        • Al says

          4 September 2023 at 10:55

          I think the US has some aura about it where many people think they have extremely advanced weapons that are 30-50 yrs ahead of everyone else.

          Weapons also have to go according to current scientific knowledge and available materials. You can’t just pull things out of thin air.

          Reply
        • oracle says

          4 September 2023 at 16:02

          “Their new planes struggle with flying, ”

          Article today, I think maybe zerohedge, USAF wants to replace the A10 with F35. The gravy train is still the name of the game.

          Reply
          • mad cow says

            4 September 2023 at 21:02

            I’ve seen it, and was thinking about it while writing that quote. It said that F-35 cracks while firing its cannon. A-10s are useful only for shooting at defenseless enemy, and F-35s can’t even do that properly.

    • WhoKnows says

      4 September 2023 at 04:14

      RU has following goals:
      – Destroy Bandera ideology by grinding them down to the last man
      – Preserve as much of UKR infrastructure by having heavy fighting in the same areas and not all over country (just imagine if every town would need to be destroyed as Bakhmut was )
      – Preserve their people as best as they can (fast big offensives would require much greater manpower and much bigger casualties in order to get to faster gains)
      – Inflict huge geopolitical blow to the West and likely ruin USD in the process as well
      – Create new global infrastructure that would ensure greater future stability
      – Avoid direct war with West since that would end up in nuclear exchange and nobody profits from that

      Simply put, in order to match all these criteria they need prolonged conflict – they need attrition of UKR and West not only in manpower and gear, but also in their minds, and what better way to do it then by constant inevitable grind that will with time crush their dreams forever.

      And don’t worry, even if West directly got involved in conventional fight they could never beat RU since RU has technological advantage (hypersonics, etc..), production advantage (in pure quantity terms they beat entire West) and manpower advantage (yes, they can mobilize up to 25 million people with prior military experience which no other country in the world can, and especially combined West can’t), therefore, no new wonder weapon or anything of that sorts will make the difference since even in full blown war (all technology, all manpower) West would easily lose badly, so those piecemeal increments are just waste of time, men and gear…

      Reply
      • dacoelec says

        4 September 2023 at 07:31

        100 percent agree. The west is in a death spiral brought on by their godlessness which always brings delusion.

        Reply
      • Katerina says

        4 September 2023 at 15:24

        The Russian Federation goals in it’s SMO in Ukraine, that you have listed, are spot on.
        I would like to add two more:

        – never again any foreign power will be able to use what will be left of “ukraine” to “weaken Russia”. Ever! The leftover “rump” ukraine will be de-nazified, de-fanged, de-weaponized, and be totally neutral.
        – NATO will cease to exist. That is number ONE goal of this SMO and it is a long time overdue..

        Reply
    • A. Dane says

      4 September 2023 at 07:56

      Galina says
      With Putin’s reluctance for confrontation Russia does not seem to perceive itself as strong.

      My comment:
      I guess you are one of those guys who lack situational awareness and wakes up on the floor in a Bar with a bloody nose when you get punched to the floor for provoking a seemly shy guy in a Bar.
      There is a big difference to downplay your strength and to brag about it Like Biden.
      Remember: ”The son of a Bitch got fired the next day”.

      Galina says
      My fear is that Putin will cave in to Erdogan threats and manipulation.

      My comment:
      The only one of these two I have seen cave in, was Erdogan hasting to Moscow to grovel before Putin, because a Turkish fighter jet had attacked a Russian fighter jet on Syrian territory.

      Erdogan needs the protection of Putin, because NATO has clearly shown they want Erdogan removed when they instigated the coup against him back in 2016.

      Galina says
      Americans know they have not yet used all the tools in their pressure-cooker, hence they have a certainty that “Ukraine will win” despite its military failures.

      My comment:
      Maybe those Americans lack the same situational awareness that you lack.

      Galina says
      The US gov´t have already decided to relocate some of their nuclear arsenal to Britain.
      The US is now pressuring Germany to supply Taurus 500 km missiles.
      The US will send Abrams tanks in mid-Sept with DEPLETED URANIUM shells.

      My comment:
      You don’t seem to understand that whatever the US and NATO can strike against Russia, Russia can and will strike back at the US and NATO, and in greater numbers.
      Russia also has hypersonic weapons, to which the US and NATO has no defense.

      We all know that drawing out the big guns like nuclear weapons, will start a race toward global nuclear annihilation, So if these weapons emerge on the battlefields its game over for us all.
      The overconfident and provoking US and UK will off course be the first to be hit by nuclear weapons launched by Russian Nuclear submarines.

      Reply
      • Paul Greenwood says

        4 September 2023 at 11:55

        You are funny. Stalin never confronted Hitler until after Germany invaded USSR………..

        Putin is shrewd. He knows the goal of US and U.K. is to set Poland at loggerheads with Germany to embroil Germany in conflict with Russia. Ukraine is simply „a cat‘s paw“

        In 1953 London Conference Britain and US virtually guaranteed Germany trade surpluses before it had obligation to repay debts………now after decades of German mercantilism they are revoking ghat deal by destroying German trade surpluses and industry…….

        Setting Germany at odds with Russia and China brings Germany down to the level of Italy

        Reply
  3. Doim says

    3 September 2023 at 23:32

    We all know Victoria “Fuck the EU” Nuland was promoted by Biden to escalate: Abrams tanks, F-16s, cluster munitions, depleted uranium munitions, F-35s to UK, etc. Neocons have no reverse gear.

    https://jamesburrillangell.substack.com/p/strange-diplomacy-victoria-fck-the

    Reply
  4. Brian says

    3 September 2023 at 23:33

    We appear to have a great deal of redundancy that only a bureaucracy could love. It is hard to imagine the arguments about what is true between all the agencies vying for the praise of the neoincontinent among us.
    The whole world is watching the show and is horrified.

    Reply
  5. Sentient says

    3 September 2023 at 23:41

    When the fucking hell does Avril Haines, Biden’s Director of National Intelligence know about intelligence? She opened a bookstore, then went to law school then started lawyering for the State Department. She did work with John Brennan during the Obama years, so maybe that demonic ogre mentored her on the dark arts, but it wouldn’t mean she knows how to cipher sensible intelligence from shit. She’s the “first woman this”, “first woman that”. Sure, but does she have talent?

    We need to go back to when the affirmative action hires also had to have talent. Cf: James C Watt (Reagan’s Sec of the Interior): “we have a black, a woman, a Jew and a cripple. And we have talent.” * It is possible Watt may have had a black, Jewish, differently-abled woman covering all those bases.

    Reply
    • Paul Greenwood says

      4 September 2023 at 00:43

      With a Jewish mother she would appear to have the right qualification for high position in US regime plus her husband has a CIA background and runs an AI Counterterrorism front company

      She went to Georgetown Law School where the Jesuits run a CIA university

      She seems very plugged in to US Ruling Class

      Reply
      • Sentient says

        4 September 2023 at 16:59

        Exactly. A plugged-in lawyer advising Biden to ignore DIA and CIA qualms about how Ukraine is “winning” very losingly; that NSA assertions that Ukraine will prevail are what should be believed. It’s like having your lawyer fix your transmission.

        Reply
  6. TEP says

    4 September 2023 at 00:17

    Excellent article, thanks Larry. I think the West’s ability to keep funding Ukraine will soon be a decisive problem. US debt is out of control and dedollarisation is well underway. Maybe this ol’ House of Cards may not last much longer.

    Reply
    • Mac says

      4 September 2023 at 01:36

      Yes. Using fake, printed money and debt to buy sub-standard, overpriced, under-performing junk for the “world’s best” military won’t turn out to be a winning strategy against Russia, let alone in keeping things going in the US.

      Detroit seems to be the mode for the future of America.

      Reply
      • Rokossovsky says

        4 September 2023 at 15:24

        This has to be one of the funniest articles, from a lack of introspection perspective, that I have ever read … which tells you all you need to know about the United States:

        The F-35 Fighter is America’s answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative – Foreign Policy Magazine

        “Perhaps one day, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which by the most generous definition of membership encompasses 40 percent of the world economy in its sprawling infrastructure initiatives, will live up to this description. But the United States’ Joint Strike Fighter program, peddling the F-35 fighter jet, already does… !!!”

        “Perhaps Belt and Road wins out in the future, but the current reality favors the U.S. version.”

        https://archive.is/hHxSl#selection-895.0-895.322

        If the MIC boffins in Washington, DC can get the rest of the world hooked on the D.O.A. Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), BRICS & BRI will have no chance!

        The “New American Century” is only a few more joint defense contracts away from full realization!

        Reply
  7. Paul Greenwood says

    4 September 2023 at 00:31

    USAF kept B61 nuclear bombs at the airbase in Lakenheath up to 2008 and is reportedly upgrading the vaults to keep B61-12 bombs there when work is completed in 2026

    U.K. is a nuclear power anyway but Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Turkey are not and their B61-12 stocks breach Non-Proliferation Treaty

    US is now in a major crisis which Russia is containing
    Either SARMAT and Yars and Bulava function or they do not – the US can take the risk but only once !

    There is Death Cult in West as Pope Benedict noted – it is manifest in Trans-Cultism and Pagan ritualism. US has reached end of road having destroyed most of own country and devastated others internationally

    The alien controllers of policy have set a Masada Course

    Reply
    • Aaron says

      4 September 2023 at 02:54

      1969 RAF Conningsby Lincolnshire UK had a bomb dump with Nukes in it about 800 metres from the main road in to the town of Boston. The local newspaper was outraged by it.
      Old dad told us all not to worry, if it goes up we all go as family and wont know a thing about it until till we get to heaven. No home work and cartoons all weekend. Us kids were reassured and calm.

      America will get locked downs, face muzzles and free money plus half priced Porn Hub.
      USA all the way.

      Reply
    • Jane Karlsson says

      4 September 2023 at 05:42

      Very interesting comment. I would love to know who the ‘alien controllers of policy’ are. Do you mean real aliens, the ones in flying saucers? I expect you know the ‘deny debunk discredit’ policy came from the CIA.

      Reply
    • El_Kabong says

      4 September 2023 at 07:23

      “..and Pagan ritualism” Oh please gimme a break. Judaism, Christianity and Islam, the 3 so-called “Great Religions” have ruled the roost for how long now? How many centuries? And the Catholic church has had a child molestation problem with all the coverups for a loooong time yet it’s those pesky pagans who are the problem. Let’s face it, the problem manifests itself among the men who wear suits and priests collars throughout the Western world. Educated idiots. Arrogant know-it-alls who think they have some divine right to order everyone else around because, after all, they’re so damned smart and everyone else needs to be edumacated,…or else. Really fed up with the whole ‘pagan’ meme when in reality Christendumb and their Jew and Muslim fellow travelers need to finally take a good look in the mirror.

      Reply
      • Swarming Black Swans says

        4 September 2023 at 09:09

        The Roman Catholic Church doesn’t have a child molestation problem; it has a homosexual problem, which is centuries old.

        Reply
        • popeye says

          4 September 2023 at 16:07

          That would not be too big of a problem if they kept their homosexuality between consenting adults.

          Reply
    • bonbon says

      4 September 2023 at 08:21

      Pope Benedict, the only to resign, should know.
      The Vatican Basilica is built on the roman Mithra death-cult center (rituals too gory to repeat here) to bury it. Mithra was the Roman Army official sect. Mithra alters found all over Britain were papered over as mere kitchens.
      This cult surfaced again with the Hellfire Clubs all over the British Isles. Look at the infamous Skull-and-Bones US clubs.
      This is not “alien”, but is an enemy of mankind.

      Reply
      • dreamerH says

        4 September 2023 at 10:06

        Wow – Ancient Roman death cults, the BDSM Hellfire swingers club and the Yale Skull and Bones in one neat package! Catholic Church bashing – the last acceptable prejudice I guess.

        Reply
        • Aaron says

          4 September 2023 at 18:49

          Correct : DreamerH, it is acceptable
          BIGGEST homosexual brothel ….Catholic priests in GAY PARIS 1800+. Big brothel for priest that wanted sex with girls. Gambling and booze also the go.

          Lesbian Nuns lining up little girls in the orphanage each morning and SNIFFING the little ones knickers to see if they had “wet the bed during the night!” Sicko’s
          Vote as instructed and finance the depravity.

          Reply
    • Hesus says

      4 September 2023 at 09:27

      “.. as Pope Benedict noted …”

      Pope? Is this satirical? What did Dalai Lama say?

      Reply
      • bonbon says

        4 September 2023 at 12:06

        Guess where the SS got their Deaths-Head insignia?

        Reply
        • Hesus says

          4 September 2023 at 16:08

          Pirates? Eveybody likes piarates.

          Reply
    • ghostwriter says

      4 September 2023 at 21:44

      Alien controllers eh?

      A nuclear exchange would give credence to the Fermi Paradox, but what’s the fun of not having anyone to turn to and say we were right?

      Reply
  8. Curious says

    4 September 2023 at 00:52

    The point when the pieces are ready and in place for more forceful option to deal with the OTAN attack looks to be approaching. A lot of progress has been made over the past two years

    Might look at this: https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1698161663147663809 The exact numbers may be off somewhat, and it doesn’;t give the emphasis on the advances and increaseed production of weapon systems that I think is another key, but the overall sketch and timelines are good, IMO. I don’t know know much background on this acct, if anyone does, would be interesed. Came across this post referenced in something I read and thonk that it fits with the points I make in this post.

    We have to go back in time to understand where the SMO is today. After the disaster in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse and decade of destruction in the 1990s, the RF was in a very weak position. As the Eltsin puppet regime was ending, a group of Russian patriots, with VVP at the head was able to assume the levers of gov”t. Initially they seem to have thought that they could work with OTAN, EU, and become a part of the West as the RF economy was being rebuilt and become an equal partner. The RF response in the aftermath of the US 9/11 incident was to help.

    However, the that was not how the Anglo-American-OTAN Cabal (AAOC)had it planned. The Mackinder Heartland plan was to isolate, breakup and plunder the resoureces of Ther Heartland, of which Russia was the largest, richest, and most powerful state. The historical colonial method of West Europa moving further East.

    When the new gov’t of the RF began to realize that was the true intent the AAOC had, they shifted expectations and focus to meet and defend against this existential threat. The economy had to be reclaimed from the Oligarchs who were AAOC comprador agents raping and pillaging in support of The Heartland colonial ideology. The military had to be rebuilt, with emphasis on defending against all threats from AAOC power. The social fabric, jobs, education, building a new Russian cohesive identity had to be done. De-Sovietization, blocking the Western Demonic Nihilist culture rot. Drawing on a rich and ancient Russia Cultural heritage and integrating it into the present situation and society as a new, yet continuous Russia.

    While this was going on the AAOC wasn’t idle. Formented AAOC paid takfiri attacks almost destroyed Chechniya, and with it possibly the continued unity of the RF. When that failed, the shift to Georgia. When that failed then 404 coups and arming of the ukronazis banderistas, jumping to high gear after 2014. Leading to the planned OTAN Spring 2021 offensive against The Crimea and Donbass. After failed diplomatic attemts bt the RF, the last in January 2021, the OTAN offensive was forestalled by the RF defensive SMO pre-emption in late February 2021.

    What was done in two short decades amazing, without parellel in history. Yet the preparation for a full rebuild and defensive structures are a work in progress. And in two short years, the progress is has been amazing. Re-read Larry’s bullet points. It is an amazing accomplishment to be at this point from the mess and destruction after the Eltsin comprador regime that was replaced just two decades ago.

    Is good to reflect on this when being dissatified with the pace of the SMO. Also keep in mind that the RF is is not fighting 404. This war, WWIII, is with the totality of the AAOC. A dangerous and nuclear power with tenacles spread all over the globe.

    It remains a dangerous situation. For the world, the whole world. AAOC cannot militarily win in 404. BRICS expansion seals the end of AAOC economic colonial dominance. There is push back in Central and South America, Africa, the Mid-East and East Asia.

    Don’t get too excited about Niger, that may just be France getting ejected and the US stepping in, after all if you’re overextend and reaching a breaking point, why not do the neoconmoron double down reflexive action one more! The printing presses are still running!

    And the there is the push against China! Busy neomorons!

    AAOC economies are failing, de-industrialized shells. AAOC conventional weapon systems are money-laundering schemes, not battlefield capable wunderwaffen. Carrier battle-group force projecrtion? Fat targets for hypersonic missiles.

    AAOC has nuclear weapons and made the only use of them ever. Yeah, the odds are increasing that they will use them a second time.

    Interesting timez …

    Reply
    • Paul Greenwood says

      4 September 2023 at 01:33

      I think you have inverted Mackinder‘s notion of Eurasian Heartland which is a contrary position to Mahan‘s Maritime Concept

      It is essentially the British/US/West European imperial navy coastal empires controlling sea routes versus landlocked and landmass powers getting access to Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf and having internal transport routes not subject to naval interdiction

      Reply
      • Curious says

        4 September 2023 at 10:15

        No, troll. You don’t undrtstand, as usual. but that doesn’t stop you from exposing your misconceptions. Please stop embarrassing yourself.

        For anyone who is interested:

        https://www.thoughtco.com/what-is-mackinders-heartland-theory-4068393

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History

        https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1014479.pdf

        Reply
  9. MK Bhadrakumar says

    4 September 2023 at 01:13

    Most insightful analysis. The point is, the political dimension: What is Biden’s calculus at a time when the threat of impeachment is looming that might blight his candidacy?

    Reply
    • Mac says

      4 September 2023 at 01:41

      Biden’s strategy: take more holiday time at the beach, and maybe get a few more ice cream cones while whoever is really in charge gives us more of the same. It’s obvious that whoever is running things is stupid, and you can’t fix stupid.

      We have the election variant of COVID, so expect more cheat by mail, and Biden campaigning from his basement again. Unless the corruption evidence keeps piling up and gives us something even the MSM can’t overlook.

      Reply
    • Top Gum says

      4 September 2023 at 03:28

      Biden is a potato, a puppet. He has handlers. Why are people not able to see this?

      Reply
      • Michael Droy says

        4 September 2023 at 08:48

        Sure but “Biden” is just a common short cut for “Biden’s Handlers”.
        In theory we could discuss those invested in Biden for 2024 and separately those handlers of the Uni-party with no commitment to Biden. But at present it seems that they are all backing Biden/Harris 2024.

        Reply
    • El_Kabong says

      4 September 2023 at 07:48

      Biden’s calculus? LOL! Surely you jest. Biden and the word “calculus” don’t belong in the same sentence or even paragraph for that matter.

      Reply
    • bonbon says

      4 September 2023 at 08:30

      The real question is what do the threateners of impeachment want?
      With Clinton they got the repeal of Glass-Steagall banking separation since 1934, opening the door to rampant speculation.
      Now they see BRICS11 moving away from the Petrodollar, not to an alternative.
      What do they want ‘Biden’ to do?
      A global CBDC Dollar as the FED pines after?

      Reply
    • Curious says

      4 September 2023 at 13:46

      My post was intended as a reply to Galina’s doom and gloom misreading, IMO, of the situation, which if her primary source of information is the propaganda TV media and social media as she indicates, is very understandable, whether she is 6th column or not.

      In reply to your query about the political dimension, don’t forsee a political, a diplomatic solution. Unless the current leadership and its directors are replaced with non-suicidal actors in what I call the Anglo-American-OTAN Cabal(AAOC) who are willing and able to acknowledge and participate in a new multipolar world. This, of course means, withdrawl, real decolonization, and abandoment of the Demonic Nihilism underilyng the AAOC. Half-actions, delaying-actions like ‘freeze in place’ or Minsk MCMIXVII are nonsence that RF has no reason to consider at this point.

      Larry, Sy Hersch, Alastair Crooke, among others have explained convincingly for me, at least, that the variety of ‘leaks’ are not random acts of improbable actors, but that such non-suicidal actors exist and are at levels that can offer pushback. If so, then that seems to imply that there are ‘dirtectors’ behind them who share the concern. Larry current post sketches a easy to grasp focal point of sane actors in intel community and the blocking of their impact by the Cabal, at this point.

      Brandon Bidette, is totally irrelevant, IMO. If it ever had a ‘best day,’ that was likely over 7 decades ago. The influence of demented, dementia-ridden AAOC public leadership is another symptom of the perilous decline and dangerous world condition, IMO. Late stage Soviet leasdership was far more aware that this current AAOC crop, IMO and that is not praise of Brezhve, Chernenko, et.al.

      Are there saner actors who will accept a sea change in the world order, who will be able to overcome the entrenched directors to move toward multiparity before the mushroom clouds appear? How many more will die before we find out if we all will?

      Reply
      • Galina says

        4 September 2023 at 18:16

        Curious says – we have completely different perspectives: you are talking from your “high chair” of geopolitics in general, I am concerned for the lives of Russian soldiers and civilians, including CHILDREN that die EVERY DAY in Donbass. Whether or not Russia wins “in the end” – which I do not doubt, btw, – my concern is for there and NOW, not in the distant future geopolitically speaking. That is why “doom and gloom”. Sure, Russians/Putin have an upper hand and all the powerful weapons but even less powerful ones that the “west” is supplying NOW and more of them KILL more people I care about. Yes, attrition works against the “collective west” but it costs many REAL LIVES today 🙁

        Reply
        • Curious says

          4 September 2023 at 19:36

          I understand, Galina, and BTW, haven’t used a high chair since I could walk.

          The killing of civilians by the banderista nazis has been going on since the 2014 coup. While you don’t have to be reminded of that, there are plenty of OTANistan natives who still haven’t heard that in their regime controlled press and social media.

          The overall picture is useful to know. That is all we can know. The only people who do know what the RF strategy is are VVP, the hightest level of MOD, and a very, very few others. No one else – no one. This is how it should be. Is that comfort that they are addressing it and planning for the future when you’re getting shelled? When the ukronazis deliberately target civillians? Of, course not.

          Are the decision makers immune to criticism? Of course not, However, deliberate efforts are being made, to manipulate opinion for gain and to promote discord and disunity behind the line? Yes, of course, doing so is a form of warfare dedicated to destroy the will of the poulation to pursue victory. They are called the 5th Column and 6Th Column.

          https://www.dictionary.com/browse/fifth-column

          https://www.dictionary.com/browse/sixth-column

          There are real reasons for how the SMO is progressing, we either trust or not. Whether you trust the ongoing process or VVP and MOD is up to you.

          Reply
          • Galina says

            4 September 2023 at 22:05

            According to a very smart person and a military analyst A. Artamonov, “Russians always win in the front battles but also always lose at the table of negotiations”. Unfortunately, it IS a very sad truth.
            Although I was very happy to learn today that “our best friend Erdogan” is leaving empty-handed. Looks like the first a 180 degree turn – not a 360 🙂 Hopefully, it’s a real change.
            And as the aforementioned analyst says, “our biggest danger is indecisiveness”.

        • concerned troll says

          5 September 2023 at 07:52

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phSxxVJCZsc

          Reply
  10. Jullianne says

    4 September 2023 at 01:25

    Ukraine is being pushed to the point of a radical collapse that will save the West’s collective face. The failure can then be placed squarely on a Ukraine that will be in no position to answer back.

    The west does not have to admit Ukraine cannot win and so come up with a ‘what next’ strategy. It just insists that it can win, is winning, and so it is quite right to encourage Ukraine to go all in. Once Ukraine collapses (via the troops walking away and the collapse of its government)) a peace deal will be done with Russia over the dead bodies of the country and its leader. This point is anticipated to occur sooner rather than later, maybe within weeks. This is the policy now.

    Reply
    • Curt Nichols says

      4 September 2023 at 02:38

      That will not be happening. You forget the Orwellian control state the UkroNazi’s have put in place, with the full support of the NSA and CIA. If a Ukrainian so much as records a Russian drone strike and posts it on social media? That is backtracked, and the Nazi’s are knocking the door down within hours.

      Ukraine is the testing ground for the systems they will emplace within the USA. And with those systems, there will be no walking away, or revolt against the government.
      People are sheep. And when you drag the troublesome sheep out of the herd, and slaughter it? The rest do as they are told.

      This will not be ending in weeks or months, or a year. Possibly within 2 years, and only because they will have to save their energy and time for their real focus. The planned war on China.

      Reply
      • OldFart says

        4 September 2023 at 07:45

        Exactly! At this point, it’s not about getting ahold of Russia’s stuff, it’s about stifling American’s Liberties. Foreigners are just an excuse to go after their REAL enemy, which is us.

        Reply
  11. ISL says

    4 September 2023 at 01:57

    Thanks for this article.

    I also think Russia now has a significant advantage in drone warfare, particularly since something like 95% of all drones on the planet are made in China, indicating the absence of US surge production capability.

    The US has specialized in ultra-expensive and extremely profitable drones, but the benefits of drones as part of the OODA, to cause expenditure of AAD system missiles, and to neutralize armor, are evident, yet will likely take a decade or longer to percolate through the pentagon purchasing system, ending up as a hyper-profitable / minimally-functional, field-deployed drone.

    Reply
    • ISL says

      4 September 2023 at 13:30

      Larry, either coinky dink, or b reads through your comments. Either way, here is a lengthy disposition on why the US is probably a decade behind China and Russia on drones and unlikely to ever catch up.

      https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/09/how-sanctioning-chinas-development-has-failed.html#more

      Reply
  12. Aaron says

    4 September 2023 at 02:36

    A Larry, you are not sending mixed messages. You are poping up or quoted all over the place. The messages are loud and clear. Folks are listening.

    I am beginning to think the DC looney Bin many be replaced courtesy of the World Champion, Snip N Tuck crew, soon than later.

    Reply
  13. heikomr says

    4 September 2023 at 02:36

    The following can be observed throughout the West. Charismatic, uncorruptible, authentic, morally stable and competent personalities who ensure the continuity of the law cannot be controlled by the oligarchy in political decision-making positions. Therefore, a decades-long adverse selection has taken place. These corrupt, incompetent, amoral personalities will promote the careers of charismatic, non-corruptible, authentic, morally stable and competent subordinates who will ensure the continuance of the law?

    I’m afraid not. The negative selection will have continued downward and in every conceivable function. An exemplary example of this is Germany. Sociopaths, partly psychopaths, careerists, people who have zero competence and are partly corrupt to the bone. Germany resembles an open psychiatric ward. But this can be observed in the entire West.

    This is extremely dangerous for mankind.

    Reply
  14. Sunday XXXIII says

    4 September 2023 at 03:06

    Just as NATO needs war to give it a reason to continue, Russia needs this war against NATO to complete the reform of its society, economy, and military. So, I don’t see Russia going on a final offensive until its reform process has reached a satisfactory stage. In other words, the Western MIC is not the only party that can benefit from dragging out a war. For Russophiles who think that Russia would not be mean enough to be so cynical, this is really just the sort of brutal balancing act (eg thousands die here, versus millions die there) required of leaders in crisis situations.

    Reply
    • Curt Nichols says

      4 September 2023 at 04:59

      THIS! An excellent example is the Russian gas still flowing thru Ukraine. That Ukraine is a) stealing and b) getting paid transit fees for.

      So not only is Russia dragging the war out to exhaust NATO and the US? Well, those oil oligarchs still want their money now don’t they?

      While I support Putin as the lesser of two evils in this conflict by far? Inasmuch as my own country spreads more death and destruction than any in history? Make no mistake. There is no leader of any country that is not a corrupt villain that will sacrifice any number of people for his/her own designs.

      We are all just expendable pawns in their “Game of Thrones”. And as long as people believe. In their Gods, their countries, their ethnicities, their fucking anythings? They will use you. They will turn you against each other, and let you kill each other for their profit.

      The US is an excellent example. That piece of shit Obama brought back racial tension. The whole bullshit tranny narrative. Whether it is race, or sex, or religion. They want you to fight those wars instead of the real war. The class war.

      Where the 1% of the 1% own us all and use us. And they stay in power by promoting wars and hatred between us. Check out. Believe in nothing. Protect yourself and any loved one you have. And fuck everything else.

      Reply
      • Zubatovschina says

        4 September 2023 at 09:33

        “There is no leader of any country that is not a corrupt villain that will sacrifice any number of people for his/her own designs.”

        You appear enmeshed within illusions prepetrated through “The short course” (history of the Russian Social Democratic Party (B)).

        Lets make it shorter and perhaps you will understand when sitting down calmly after replenishing liquids.

        Ready ?

        “There is no leader of any country”.

        “they stay in power by…….others believing that “There is no leader of any country that is not a corrupt villain that will sacrifice any number of people for his/her own designs.”

        ergo:

        “And as long as people believe. In their Gods, their countries, their ethnicities, their fucking anythings?”

        “They will use you since you facilitate your own usage”

        It not only your sister’s fault but also your own choice to remain a food source and a human shield as was the case of many members of the R.S.D.P.(B), who “saw” her face and became a believer without doubt in their mind.

        Reply
        • Ghost of Mozgovoy says

          4 September 2023 at 19:21

          Good nom de plume, in fact the political system currently in Europe….

          Policial socialism….

          Do you think that, like it hapened with Tsarism, it will be overthrown?

          I have my doubts, we are not Russians….

          Reply
      • Zubatovschina says

        4 September 2023 at 10:09

        https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/09/04/hotel-ukraine-sure-check-out-any-time-but-you-can-never-leave/

        It’s the same old song – (can hardly hear it) -, just a different meaning since you’ve been gone.

        Reply
      • Sunday XXXIII says

        4 September 2023 at 11:34

        In my darker moods I empathise with your point. However, in my lighter moods I think that it is still possible for a country to be well led. For example, looking at the progress Russia has made over the last 23 years., for all the difficulties, mistakes, and compromises made or encountered, it’s leadership seems to have achieved more for the vast majority of its people than ‘Western’ leaderships have for their people. Corrupt leadership may be the general rule for failing democracies, but ‘golden ages’ are still possible, and Russia might just be going into one.

        Reply
  15. James says

    4 September 2023 at 04:13

    The alleged ‘failure’ of Russia to crush the Ukraine quickly was always a false paradigm.
    Anyone remember “the battle for Kiev” which the legacy media breathlessly reported for at least 4 months (Feb-June2022) but stubbornly refused to occur?
    Why would Russia bother? All that was wanted was safety for the Donbass which, to coin a phrase more honestly than its originator, is ‘Mission Accomplished’.
    If it had been the USA schlok&awe tactic, as per Iraq, of destroying civil infrastructure the entire country would have become a basket case and more trouble than it was worth – not least to Euroland.
    All they have to do now is “stay calm & carry on” (another, slightly more venerable and meaningful phrase from Britain during WWII) and let the West fling its proxies & borrowed toys into the abyss.
    It is little more than a fly trapped against a window pane, too dumb to see the futility and lacking a Plan B, so just keeps banging its head on the illusion until dead.

    Reply
  16. heikomr says

    4 September 2023 at 04:18

    I fully agree with the content of this article:

    Boiling Frogs Towards Nuclear Armageddon?

    https://telegra.ph/Boiling-Frogs-Towards-Nuclear-Armageddon-09-01

    Reply
  17. Zubatovschina says

    4 September 2023 at 05:19

    “U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY SENDING MIXED MESSAGES ON UKRAINE”.

    One of the advantages derived from competition, but not the only one.

    Practiced from inception with oscillating “gain”.

    As the song goes:

    Now there was a time
    When they used to say
    That behind every “great man”
    There had to be a “great woman”
    But in these times of change
    You know that it’s no longer true
    So we’re coming out of the kitchen
    ‘Cause there’s something we forgot to say to you (we say)

    Sisters are doing it for themselves
    Standing on their own two feet
    And ringing on their own bells
    Sisters are doing it for themselves

    Or was that to themselves?

    Reply
    • A P says

      4 September 2023 at 09:58

      Notice that some of the worst the real NeoCon shit disturbers ARE women. But they often don’t want to be seen as “leading”… Lettuce-lady Truss lasted a few weeks in the Big Chair when elevated from her former supporting role, Ahern psychologically imploded trying to keep the lid on in micro-state New Zealand.

      The current “Great Women”?

      Nuland is technically second banana at State Dep’t… as if Blinken is in charge, what a weak-kneed sop he is.

      And in Canada, grand-daughter of a real Nazi propagandist, Freeland, is Deputy PM AND Finance Minister. Look at Trudy, as if he is in charge of even his own bowel movements. Why do you think Sophie kicked his ass to the curb? It’s not money problems, so why else would she exit? Because he is a spineless liar and control freak… who will use his family as stage props. I’m surprised Sophie allowed him to trot out his kid at a recent “get the geriatric vote” event in Lethbridge. At least he isn’t showering with his daughter.

      Reply
      • Zubatovschina says

        5 September 2023 at 06:38

        “Notice”

        “Or was that to themselves?”

        “Feminism” was the multi-layered Matryoshka in attempted furtherance of divide and rule.

        Reply
        • Ghost of Mozgovoy says

          5 September 2023 at 16:18

          Brought to a grotesque level by worldwide Bidenistas/Sorosistas…..currently in power….

          https://youtu.be/iqsci9RWN60?feature=shared

          Reply
  18. You Really Don't Want to Know says

    4 September 2023 at 05:23

    I think you meant “countervailing” rather than “contravening” but YMMV.

    Reply
    • Larry Johnson says

      4 September 2023 at 10:40

      No, I meant contravening.Countervailing is fine too.

      Reply
  19. Hiro Masamune says

    4 September 2023 at 05:29

    Government agencies disagreeing in an single party state is not a bug , it’s a feature. It help the system saving itself with a form of plausible deniability if things goes horribly wrong.
    It works best as long as someone is right and have enough power to move the whole system. The problem now is the inertia of US system make it hard to stir and nobody has an idea to save the day. The Coyote is right above the precipice , and he only have Acme gadgets …

    Reply
    • Zubatovschina says

      4 September 2023 at 07:50

      “It works best as long as someone is right and have enough power to move the whole system.”

      “The problem now …..”

      You are mistaken, but ignorance/speculations remain lands of opportunity for opponents. since “It” continues not “to work” in facilitation of the system’s continuing sustainability which some co-operatively evaluate as being “best”.

      Reply
  20. Daniel says

    4 September 2023 at 05:44

    Warm congratulations for this excellent post as usual.

    I think ongoing Ukrainian mobilization of a new army of 300,000 men or even higher will continue to be organized even if it makes no sense except leading more men to slaughter.

    I fear there is no mistaken assumptions nor utter incompetence from the real planners behind this organized slaughter (I don’t mean US and NATO leaders, but those hiding behind them). Western curators are ready to accept to be accused of mismanaging this crisis both politically and militarily, as this will obfuscate the horrendous reality hidden behind: this prolonged slaughter of the Ukrainian (and to a much lesser level Russian) soldiers is extended on purpose as long as possible.

    The criminal aims of the puppetmasters are multifold:

    Of course, the obvious one is to extend as much as possible the massive profits generated by this conflict for their military-industrial complex.

    But a darker one is the understanding that Ukraine and Russia share mostly the same land, the same people (that don’t apply to the Ukrainian nationalists and neonazis of course). Soonest the conflict is resolved with minimum bloodshed, easiest will be national reconciliation. Western neoconservatives do their best to make the future mending of Ukraine/Russia relationships as complicated and remote as possible. They are aware a large number of Slavic Ukrainians will become Russians in the future, the more are killed or maimed in the conflict, the less will be left to join the motherland and strenghten Russia. This also explains why Ukraine is practicing ethnic cleansing on a grand scale, forcibly mobilizing mainly Ukrainian from pro-Russian Eastern oblasts and ethnic Hungarian from the Western border.

    As a bonus of course, everything is done to implement a scotched earth policy to utterly devastate the land expected to be reunited with Russia: hiding in civilian buildings to lead to cities complete ruin, providing depleted uranium shells to poison the fertile land as well as cluster munitions so civilians will be killed during many years to come.

    Our mainstream media (80% of which belong to military-industrial complex) are already starting to leak about Western politicians “errors” or “mistakes” in managing this crisis. We should not be fooled: no error, no mistake was committed, all actions were deliberately aimed to the slaughter of slavic people, committed under the plausible deniability of mismanagement.

    Reply
  21. Tim says

    4 September 2023 at 05:56

    This is what happens when you have a central bank that has garnered for itself the ability to create as much fairy dust magic money as it needs and those select groups get first dibs on its credit.

    Think of the billions and billions of dollars sucked up by these intelligence agencies mentioned in this article and the thousands of people sucking off that big tit? If anyone thinks they are going to end that you better think again.

    When the Federal Reserve runs out of credit where does it go to get further credit?

    Reply
  22. Michael Droy says

    4 September 2023 at 06:11

    Good news is self-selecting.

    I see the motivations for US as a patchwork quilt of many pieces which appears to make up a convincing blanket. Everyone wants to get their special interest into the blanket, nobody cares to check if the blanket is actually stitched together or is credible.

    Afghanistan style kick backs to Washington;
    A distraction from Biden’s problems and performance;
    MIC get fresh orders;
    CIA gets to play games;
    MI6 gets to be a useful partner to US (Muttley to Dick Dastardly)
    A bunch of Russia haters just, well, hate Russia;
    The Hillary Dems are still playing Russiagate and are sore with Trump;
    Governments are obsessed with controlling public opinion (and this is even a better challenge than Lock Downs and masks);
    and the list continues

    Reply
  23. bonbon says

    4 September 2023 at 07:50

    “Then there is the Director of National Intelligence (aka DNI). This position/office was created in the aftermath of 9-11 and is supposed to “manage” and “coordinate” all members of the Intelligence Community.”
    Biden et al listen to the stovepiped DNI.
    The problem then is caused by 9/11 – the failed Reichstagsbrand. Who would want that US dysfunction?
    It looks like those who assassinated JFK were not satisfied, hence 9/11.
    The usual pragmatic baloney “that was then, this is now” can be fatal.

    Reply
  24. ricardo duchesne says

    4 September 2023 at 08:52

    Larry, what about this “analysis” of the war situation by a guy who uses the name Tendar, which Francis Fukuyama tweeted with the words “How Ukraine will win”: https://twitter.com/FukuyamaFrancis/status/1698338304255840541

    “Much has been said regarding the Russian defense network, and when you check them then there is no doubt that Russians have put a vast amount of effort to create them. At this point I can wholeheartedly recommend the maps which
    @bradyafr
    has created to document them. But what many forget is that those are purely tactical elements which – detached from a overarching strategy – offer little.

    The Ukrainian counteroffensive has been going on for almost 3 months and over this period of time the Ukrainian onslaught has created some gaping wounds in the Russian defense network. It started Velyka Novosilka which was culminating in the devastating Russian defeat and costly withdrawal in Urozhaine.

    Far more dangerous, however, for the Russian war effort are the Ukrainian operations south of Orikhiv. Russians have specifically fortified this area. Especially, Robotyne was vital for the Russian defense sector. It also explains also why Russians continue to counter attack this area, knowing their weakness in the hinterlands.

    But this is not even the worst for the Russians. Far worse is that this whole battle has evolved in an open tug-of-war. Both sides know more less the strengths and weaknesses of each other. The open terrain makes sneak attacks and counterattacks virtually impossible. This is only emphasized by the usage of drones. Some might argue that this point might be favorable for Russians but even that Russians squandered long ago.

    The biggest thinking error many, especially Russians, are making is to make this about trench networks. The trenches are delaying the advance, there is no doubt about that. But the most crucial aspect of this battle is logistics, as always. And here Russians made absolutely decisive mistakes, by not targeting Ukrainians logistic lines in the same way than the other way around. Ukrainians masterfully and since day one of this operation targeted all the logistics hubs and HQs from Melitopol to Tokmak.

    It is also those Russian logistics lines which get increasingly compromised. I have added Screenshot 1 where some of the Russian trenchlines are marked, including the far more vital and primary logistic lines. Most of them are in range of Ukrainian tubed artillery.

    Another aspect which Russians have not employed as much as Ukrainians is the usage of drones. The occasional lancet strike is published, of course, but the drone warfare is a matter of quantities. The Ukrainian FPV strikes are far more numerous. To put that into perspective: Magyar birds alone have destroyed Russian equipment worth a billion USD (!), while using drones which do not exceed in price of 10,000 USD, and most of them being even below 1,000 USD. The flow of new drones is not only exceeding, but also being supported by a vast Ukrainian drone industry, which comes up with more intriguing and even cost-effective drones. This comes parallel with the long-range drones which increasingly strike vital Russian bases far away from Ukraine.

    The bulk of the drones at the front have a range of 5km and when you overlay this (Screenshot 2) on the Ukrainian advance then you see that in this orange area that life for a Russian soldier is short. This is also the area where increasingly the Russian elite force such as the 76th Guards Air Assault Division are getting hammered and softened up, while the heavy Ukrainian brigade still wait for the big push.

    All and all Russians have completely lost the initiative and only hope that Ukrainians stop their assault. The frantic call of Pro-Russian minions such as Hungary’s Orban are a very good sign how much in distress Russia has come. They desperately need and hope that the Ukrainian attack stops, and if they don’t then we are not far away from a complete Russian collapse along the southern front. This collapse is only determined by how and when the Russian logistics will not be able to repel Ukrainian attacks in an organized fashion, and that point is nothing what you can see on maps where trenchlines are marked. It is determined by logistic lines and their hubs as well as the attrition rate. When this tipping point is reached, then collapse of Russian army in Zaporizhzhia is complete.

    The dire situation for Russians will move then from critical to hopeless when Ukrainians break through the lines and storm to the Azov Sea. In the early stages of this open war, Russians focused on securing the Azov coast in order to protect their bases in Crimea. With the Ukrainian arsenal such as HIMARS, Stormshadows/Scalp-EG and likely soon TAURUS, as well, Ukrainian control of whole Zaporizhzhia will make the Russian occupation in Crimea untenable. It will be similar to Germany 1944 where a fight might still continue another year (which it did), but it wouldn’t change the outcome. The liberation of Zaporizhzhia by Ukrainians forces equals Russia’s strategic defeat. Both sides know that.

    This is why the influx of resources and ammunition for Ukrainian forces must be sustained and increased. The fight will go on for some time but in end Russia will lose this battle. Even when supplies are delayed there is no way that Russia can turn the tide, but any delay in supplies could result in an unnecessary and prolonged war. It is time that some Western leaders, especially in Germany, stop sitting on their hands and turn on the factories. The earlier it is done, the earlier we can end this miserable war.”

    Reply
    • Larry Johnson says

      4 September 2023 at 10:39

      Completely delusional. There is no common ground for a reasoned discussion with clowns like that.

      Reply
    • norecovery says

      4 September 2023 at 18:53

      “The dire situation for Russians will move then from critical to hopeless when Ukrainians break through the lines and storm to the Azov Sea.” – Is that you, Vicki?

      Let’s see how Germany might “turn on the factories” without sufficient cheap energy supply! Their industries already are floundering.

      What a crock.

      Reply
    • DALE FERGUSON says

      4 September 2023 at 22:42

      That sounds reminiscent of what was going to happen to Russia in Bakhmut. The Ukrainians had Russia right where they wanted them and was going to go in for the kill. Next time the kool aid comes around I think you should pass.

      Reply
  25. Shahnameh says

    4 September 2023 at 09:00

    A new defense minister of Tartar/Muslim descent, now the Halal will take the torch from their Kosher brothers:) Did Erdogan survive his Graham Fuller experience because of Putin forewarning? How will Idlib break?

    Reply
  26. k. talaat says

    4 September 2023 at 09:03

    The Brics was formed as a counter balance to the economic hegemony of the West.
    If this Western military hegemony doesn’t reform, when will the Brics develope a counter balance to the military hegemony? Remember the Warsaw Pact? When this occurs, how will and with what, will the US respond to a multi front provocation? Remember Iran’s attack on our Iraqi base, no KIAs, just an accurate, heavy pounding resulting in many severe concussions and brain damage.
    The US owes a huge blood liable in the ME. If the half billion Arabs manage to unify under the Bricks banner, then what will the US do with its obsolete ACCs? Get kicked out of Iraq and re-invade it once again? Where will the jump-off point be from? Spain maybe, and where else exactly, Africa? Algeria’s warning to France and the Ecowas to not interfere in Niger, is noteworthy. This is not just a warning it’s an attitude. Niger is a predominantly Muslim country and an attack directly or indirectly by France on Niger, has the potential to be labeled as another crusade against Islam. Western hegemony has lost control of the Red Sea, all chocke points belong to Brics nations. Russia is working with Iran to build a route for Russia into the Arabian Sea, diminishing their Crimean Navy’s dependence on the Bosporos for access to the southern seas. It is time to think and trade respectfully. Sometimes I wonder if Vicky the Neoclown, knows what a map is?

    This system of building weapons, to loot and kill other inhabitants of our planet for the oligarchy must stop. We can’t afford it any longer, for our blood and treasure to be used as a discount tool to indulge their lust for more wealth and mower power.

    Reply
  27. William Verick says

    4 September 2023 at 09:09

    Let them eat (Italian) yellow cake.

    Reply
  28. ravin6 says

    4 September 2023 at 09:13

    The unelected von der Leyden ( Russia is in tatters) and Joseph (We are the garden) Borrell have just passed a law for the minister of truth in the EU. Now you’ll be told what’s real or not, no discussion or disagreement. Got it?
    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/direct-government-censorship-internet-here

    Reply
    • bonbon says

      4 September 2023 at 12:01

      Thierry Breton is The Mouth that Roared.
      https://www.bedtimeshortstories.com/the-mouse-that-roared-story

      Reply
    • oracle says

      4 September 2023 at 16:15

      One of these days sonar21, moonofalabama.org and rumble won’t be available.

      Reply
  29. Tom Hickey says

    4 September 2023 at 09:29

    “Russia’s political influence in the world is growing, not shrinking. BRICS is a case in point.”

    Just as significant, US and Western influence in general is shrinking, not growing.

    This is exactly the plan — Putin and Xi’s plan, that is, and the BRICS+ are largely on board with it.

    Pretty much all the Global South has to do at this point is sit back and let the Global North destroy itself. This is what is happening with Ukraine and the entire Western policy it is based on.. although there is pushback growing in Europe as the place implodes economically, as well as demographically with refugees.

    Reply
  30. No Name says

    4 September 2023 at 09:36

    Why Putin doesn’t keep the lights off in Kiev is still a mystery to me.

    Yes, he wants to “go slow”, not only to get rid of more Ukie-fodder, but more so he can keep putting all the political pieces (BRICS) in place BEFORE he takes the gloves off and fully blackens Banderastan.

    But to allow the Ukies another military installation – like a drone factory or fuel storage facility – which is used against Russia… boggles the mind. It’s odd how Russia can always “take out” these things once they’re used against Russia, but almost never BEFORE.

    Truly, there’s no reason Putin can’t do the “Surovikin” thing and keep the military infrastructure of Ukraine to a minimum so the Ukie-Nazis remain more disheartened about their prospects… and to keep it from being used to kill Russians.

    Of course, Russia also has consider that they are dealing with the devil himself in the Western leadership. So there’s only so much time they have before they must blacken Banderastan anyway, and take the WHOLE of Ukraine over, leaving the West nothing from which to keep poking the Bear.

    Reply
    • ISL says

      4 September 2023 at 13:44

      no name dude,

      you do not boil a frog quickly.

      the house always lets the sucker win a few hands.

      Russia is in a war with and is attriting the entire West – not just NATO.

      Reply
  31. Mike Stanford says

    4 September 2023 at 09:44

    “The Russian economy is robust and healthy despite Western sanctions.”

    Not despite, because of!!!

    All they needed was that sanction-kick in the butt. Now their economy is better off than ever before.

    Reply
    • No Name says

      4 September 2023 at 10:23

      Fact Check: TRUE !

      Reply
  32. bonbon says

    4 September 2023 at 10:22

    All is NOT well at the Russian Central Bank ( and where is it sane in any other central bank anyway ). A public brawl has broken out :
    Finance Ministry Siluanov argues for tighter currency controls, in discussions with Central Bank
    https://tass.com/economy/1668621
    Bank of Russia’s Nabiullina does not rule out raising key rate at September meeting
    https://tass.com/economy/1668745
    EAEU Economist Glazyev already commented repeatedly on this. The RCB is following IMF rules!
    That IMF wants to make a bloody example of Argentina and by extension BRICS11 – the election candidate Milei, who some call “Argentina’s Zelenskyy,” wants to dollarize Argentina!

    Reply
  33. Jean-David Beyer says

    4 September 2023 at 10:43

    Bureaucratic escalation. The CIA was created to bring together the results of all the other intelligence agencies. And since then it has become something else, so the DNI was created to bring together the results of all the other intelligence agencies AND the CIA. Next we will have created yet another agency to bring together the results of all the other intelligence agencies AND the CIA AND the DNI. And then … Finally, there will be such a pyramid of intelligence agencies as to take over the entire government. There will not enough people in the country to fill all these intelligence agencies.

    Reply
    • bonbon says

      4 September 2023 at 11:01

      An Intelligence Ponzi scheme. 🙂
      Ponzi’s collapse 2 ways , first slowly, then all at once.

      Reply
  34. bonbon says

    4 September 2023 at 11:07

    Zelensky fired his Defense Minister Reznikov – really?
    Reznikov gets to be the Ambassador to U.K., who was fired in June for one sarcastic comment.
    Scott Ritter’s “Agent Zelensky” videos need an update!

    Reply
  35. Trubind1 says

    4 September 2023 at 11:29

    “The U.S. Intelligence Community is not a monolith. It is more like a feudal society”… got me laughing Larry! Nice 👍

    Truth is, it’s only recently the cracks are turning into fissures though. Usually they are hand-in-glove in every PR adventure. I can still remember during Trump “collision” escapade how the “17 Intelligence Offices” all “confirmed” the “evidence”.

    Even now, to “leave the Brotherhood” and actually go against “the PR narrative” is forbidden while retaining a position. So, I think we’ve a long way to go.

    Reply
  36. Mark J says

    4 September 2023 at 11:32

    Even if the big three intel agencies produced white snow virgin information, the political behavior of people in govts will twist it for their own purposes.

    Power and money, money and power.

    Reply
  37. bonbon says

    4 September 2023 at 11:42

    British Diplomat, conflict forum host, on D.C.’s off-ramp dreams :
    Hotel Ukraine: ‘Sure, Check-Out Any Time, but You Can Never Leave’
    https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/09/04/hotel-ukraine-sure-check-out-any-time-but-you-can-never-leave/

    The neo-cons checked into Hotel California, sorry Ukraine, ran for the door to check out, but they can never leave the world that has completely changed!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09839DpTctU
    Eagles – Hotel California (Live 1977) (Official Video) [HD]
    The neo-cons and Kiev Junta are caught in the addicts dilemma. Couldn’t happen to nicer guys an’ gals.!

    Reply
  38. RJ says

    4 September 2023 at 12:13

    Question for Larry: do you think the US has a functional satellite-based Directed Energy Weapon?

    Reply
    • Larry Johnson says

      4 September 2023 at 19:32

      No. Hell, we can’t even produce a viable hyper sonic missile.

      Reply
  39. Le sigh says

    4 September 2023 at 13:21

    Has Putin not said that the RF considers this a nuclear attack? No doubt the US and UK will ignore the fact that the first batch was blown up, contaminated the area and causing EU radiation monitoring to go “offline” suspiciously in the days following the explosion of the munitions site. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-arm-ukraine-toxic-depleted-uranium-munitions

    Reply
  40. bonbon says

    4 September 2023 at 13:32

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/musks-father-worried-about-assassination-after-escalating-attacks
    Musk’s Father Worried About Assassination After Escalating Attacks
    The most rabid pro-Ukraine New Yorker again.
    …implied that a conversation Musk had with Russian President Vladimir Putin means Kremliny things are afoot…
    … with one Pentagon official telling The New Yorker that Elon was treated like an “unelected official.”

    Musk has a Pentagon deal for Starlink to Ukraine. Looks like X twitter has really hit a nerve!

    Reply
  41. Alonso says

    4 September 2023 at 13:47

    Would the USA like that, in a direct war with Russia, it would apply the tactics that it is not applying in Ukraine (Shock and Awe) out of respect for the Ukrainian population and which they say is out of weakness? And what will devastate the entire population of the United States of America? (Maybe the stateless don’t care)
    I think that this tactic, that of destroying everything, supposes cowardice or fear of the unknown, because you don’t know everything you should know about the enemy, and because you suspect that the adversaries may be much more warriors than you, and that you don’t know how to solve the problem intelligently. Then you fall with everything committing genocide. And with the pretense of causing fear in the rest of the countries, but what you cause is confusion and alienation, since it is being with an uncontrolled bully.
    In contrast, Russia’s tactic in Ukraine is methodical, almost scientific, with its mind set on the political objective rather than disemboweling bodies left and right (and that’s what some hyperventilated people don’t understand). And it is the great difference between being a caudillo to being a statesman. And that is why many countries look to Russia with hope, because, among other things, she is “the adult in the room.”

    Reply
  42. Curt Nichols says

    4 September 2023 at 15:11

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Putins-Natural-Gas-Leverage-Over-The-EU-Is-Not-Entirely-Gone.html

    Ah, math and money. Next to my dog, the only things I truly love. Europe thinks they have already survived winter because their gas storage is at 93%. They probably have because it is shaping up to be another mild winter.

    BUT. People do not understand. Pricing is set on the margin. On the last barrel delivered not the inventory. And on expectations. Which is best understood by looking at the current US housing situation. The people with 3% mortgages are not selling. And if they do, they have an incredibly high asking price. This will last until layoffs, life, or circumstances occur. And when the first lowball sale hits the housing comp in that area? It starts the snowball down the hill. And the same thing will occur to oil shortly. Brent crude is at 89 and rising.

    The Europeans have eliminated Putin’s leverage? Hardly. They have “survived” by shutting down entire segments of German industry that used energy. Look at the failing economy of Germany. Which was the money maker of the socialist mommy kingdom of the EU. So, they can “survive”.

    What is really funny? We (USA) have just completely subjugated the EU. When the NordStream blew they are now our LNG energy slaves. When Powell raised rates to 5%, and the EU economies that only survived on negative interest rates had to hike to avoid capital flight? That can only last so long. They cannot pay the vig on their debt at 5%. We can because as the reserve currency we just print more. And moonbats to the contrary, that ain’t changing anytime soon. Capital will flee Europe and come to the US. Which will be used for the “onshoring” process away from China.

    Oh, and the EU is so dysfunctional they cannot replace their own weapons they sent to Ukraine, so they are buying them at the “company store” of the USA.

    So, give the Evil and Dying Empire its due. It failed to destroy Russia. But it enslaved most of Europe.

    Reply
    • Mark J says

      4 September 2023 at 16:34

      Short the Euro.

      Long the Rouble.

      Hold gold.

      I personally also like the Kroner…

      Calories are wealth… Russia has the calories.

      Reply
  43. Virgile says

    4 September 2023 at 17:42

    Russia ‘s goal seem to have evolve. It does not look only at the demilitarization of Ukraine but at inflicting a crushing defeat on NATO that hopefully will cause many large countries to desert it. As the USA won’t bear the expenses of NATO alone..NATO wil starve and die.

    Reply
  44. Kevin Frost says

    4 September 2023 at 22:55

    ‘.. Russia will be bogged down for years battling Banderist militants’. This is what Mark Slavoda worries about to. But more and more I’m starting to doubt this. The stratagem of attrition is not only ‘demilitarising’ Ukraine. This is obvious. But perhaps less obvious is that Surovikin’s ‘Operation Meatgrinder’ is effectively denazifying the country as well. Not just KIA’s but rather a deeper psychological effect, somewhat like shock therapy. The Banderite Nazi ideology is a death cult essentially. They regard themselves as ‘noble’, that is ‘Ayran’ due to their willingness to sacrifice themselves for this fake nation they’ve concocted. As nobles they have a perfect right to order entire populations into the fire traps methodically constructed by the Russians. In a sublime or perhaps twisted manner the disease cures itself. The Nazis are half of the equation; the other half are the neocons. Their Hollywood script of Blitzkrieg war as the lubrication that keeps all the gears of the political/military/economic/ academic/organised crime and Co. wheels meshing smoothly assumes a mandatory effect where the generals are obliged to act out the heroic script which is certain to feed the grinding wheels of mass annihilation. Curiously, this is the Nazi’s fate. They actively, adamantly choose it. What we are presently witnessing in Ukraine resonates with the last months of the Third Reich; when the Allies encountered boys and old men dressed in uniforms. A point to note here is that on the morrow of the surrender of the Nazi leadership there was no protracted underground resistance movement of dedicated Nazis. No. Everybody wanted to just get back to work, clear away the rubble and forget the nightmare they’d all lived through. Not many were even interested in talking about it.

    Reply
    • JessDTruth says

      5 September 2023 at 17:50

      The Ukraine has a more relevant history, 1045-1954, than does the ex-Nazi Germany. Under the direction of the CIA and Reinhard Gehlen, the Nazi Bandera movement in the Ukraine was revived and fought the Soviets. Some 40,000 to 150,000 people were killed. The ending was botched because Nikita Khrushchev prematurely released all the Banderistas from Soviet prisons, and of course they started to rebuild the Nazi movement.

      I think the Russians have a good idea of how to handle the Banderistas in the Ukraine, and the solution is, “The only good Nazi is a dead Nazi.” But as in 1945, lots of Nazis will try to shelter in the West. This time, if the West does nothand them over for war crimes trials, that will prolong the conflict and ensure the utter end of the West.

      Reply
    • Resistere says

      9 September 2023 at 17:34

      After this filthy bloodletting is over the Russians should form another mutual treat with the psychopaths who planned and provoked this completely avoidable war.
      They abuse us, our laws, our traditions, our money, our military, and our flag on a regular basis, what would make the Russians think that they would fare any better.

      Reply
  45. George Kovachev says

    5 September 2023 at 03:46

    “The Russian economy is robust and healthy despite Western sanctions.”

    Actually, the russian economy is robust and healthy BECAUSE the western sanctions. While lesser nations would cow and bow under such pressure, the russians move to a more self-reliant economy instead. BTW, the history here repeat itself – Imperial Russia entered WW1 as backward agrarian state; after the Bolshevik revolution 1917 and the russian civil war 1918-1921, the fledgling Soviet Union emerged as a nation on its way to become an industrual powerhouse, despite the fact that the rest of the world imposed total sanctions on Russia (even invaded it here and there). By the middle of the 30-ies, Soviet Union became an industrial powerhouse rivalling such countries as France, Germany and Great Britain.

    “Russia’s political influence in the world is growing, not shrinking. BRICS is a case in point.”

    Well, no one sane could argue with the truth, but the western politicos and their presstitutes continue to try, hoping for different result. If I’m not mistaken, that was Albert Einstein’s definition of insanity.

    “Russia is inflicting enormous casualties on Ukraine’s military and decimating infrastructure critical to the Ukrainian military campaign.”

    One of the stated goals of the SMO was, and still is, demilitarization of Ukraine. I believe that the russians achieved this goal by the end of 2022. Now they’re demilitarzing the european components of NATO. And, IMHO, they’re doing superb job.

    “Russia’s defense industry has ramped up to levels of production that the West cannot match.”

    When one destroys his own productive economy for financial profit, it’s next to impossible to restore it without complete destruction of the State and creation of a new one.

    “Russia’s seemingly unlimited access to natural resources, energy and rare earth minerals strengthens Russia’s military position in the world.”

    I believe that’s obvious. I think the venerable Andrey Martyanov was the one who said that in the final analysis a war is won based on available resources and logistics.

    “Russia enjoys a massive technological advantage over NATO in terms of electronic warfare, air defense systems, mine laying vehicles and hypersonic missiles.”

    Actually, Russia enjoys a massive technological advantage over NATO in pretty much every aspect of daily life. Unlike the NATO, the russians simply don’t feel the need to advertise their achievements.

    “Russian leaders and their people genuinely believe they face an existential threat from the West.”

    And there is a very good historical reason for it – starting with the Mongols and ending with the current batch wanna-be conquerors. Fortunately, Russia is simply too big to be conquered; alas, she’s too big to be left alone either.

    “Ukraine is totally dependent on the West to provide money and weapons to continue to fight.”

    I think that without the money and the weapons from the West, Ukraine would’ve collapsed September 2022.

    Reply
  46. Christophe Nicolas says

    5 September 2023 at 07:39

    Quel est le rapport entre V. Poutine et J. Kennedy ? C’est cela que le renseignement US doit comprendre.
    Ils ont tous les deux été victimes d’une tentative de coup d’état mais celle contre V. Poutine a raté.

    Que vont penser les citoyens Américains en prenant conscience que le président Kennedy a été assassiné par la CIA … 🙂 sauf, qu’à bien y regarder :

    – L’allié Ben Gourion qui trompe Kennedy sur Dimona et se fait coincer est Juif
    – L’usurpateur, patron du Texas, Lyndon Johnson est Juif
    – L’agent de la CIA Reuben Efron qui suit Oswald, le Patsy, est Juif
    – L’exécuteur mafieux Jacob Rubinstein qui tue Oswald est Juif
    – Le chef de la Mafia Meyer Lansky, ruiné par la révolution Cubaine, est Juif
    – Abraham Zapruder qui filme la scène est Juif

    La voiture va à 18 km/h soit 5m/s. La balle va à environ 550 m/s or Oswald est à 78 m (240 ft) donc le véhicule bouge de 70 cm pendant le trajet de la balle or la largeur d’un crane est environ de 15 cm. L’angle joue en faveur du tireur qui fait que le véhicule à une vitesse apparente deux fois plus faible. Conclusion, il faut au moins diviser la distance par 2 pour assurer le tir.
    Qu’est-ce que vous pariez que le coup de feu mortel vient du bosquet en avant sur la droite du véhicule ?

    Ce qui est bien avec la CIA, c’est qu’elle est prête à endosser le crime de Kennedy pour ne pas être accusée d’antisémitisme, des vrais boy-scout… 🙂

    Lyndon Johnson étouffera le procès sous le prétexte de ne pas débusquer un complot Russe imaginaire qui déclencherait une 3ème guerre mondiale, le parfait alibi. Il donnera le Vietnam aux bellicistes anti-URSS pour les calmer. Le Vietnam sera le bouc émissaire martyre du coup d’état sioniste sur le gouvernement des USA.

    Un peu plus tard, H. Kissinger organisera l’arnaque d’Apollo, le bébé trisomique de Lyndon Johnson, ainsi les républicains rejoindront les démocrates dans un mensonge inavouable, corrompus par les sionistes désirant assurer la protection d’Israël par les USA.

    E. Prigojine est Juif, le chef du gouvernement Russe est Juif ainsi que de nombreux oligarques Russes… Autrement dit, “deep-state” a fabriqué un héros Russe pour qu’il puisse rentrer avec des blindés dans Moscou sous un prétexte qu’il aura lui même provoqué. Moscou n’ayant pas de défenses lourdes, une fois en ville où l’aviation ne peut plus détruire les colonnes, V. Poutine aurait rejoint J. Kennedy.

    C’est tout cela que le renseignement des USA doit comprendre.

    Reply

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I am a bona fide Son of American Revolutionaries. At least 24 of my ancestors, men and women, fought to free the American Colonies from British rule. Some died for the cause of liberty. Though two and a half centuries have passed since my great grandfathers and grandmothers took up arms, the principles they fought for remain valid and relevant to the 21st Century. This blog is dedicated to the pursuit of truth without regard to partisan advantage. I welcome like minded patriots.

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