On the cusp of the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Turkey’s President Erdogan dropped a couple of turds in the Russian punch bowl — he broke the agreement he made with Russia to imprison AZOV leaders who were taken prisoner at Mariupol in May of 2022, he endorsed immediate membership in NATO for Ukraine and he signed a deal to expand drone production in Ukraine.
Erdogan’s moves have been greeted with anger in Moscow and strengthened the position of hardliners who have long insisted that Erdogan is not to be trusted. It does make Putin look both foolish and weak for trusting Erdogan to uphold his side of the bargain to keep the AZOV leaders penned up until the war in Ukraine ends. This is not going to galvanize Putin’s opponents to force his removal, but it does bring glee and merriment to Western leaders eager to see Putin damaged.
What the hell was Erdogan thinking? Let’s start with the ridiculous agreement to “expand drone production” in Ukraine. This is typical Erdogan corruption. His son-in-law controls the production of these drones and stands to benefit financially if Ukraine is able to build more Bayraktars. Only a couple of problems. First, the drone sucks. It has been proven to be a tactical flop on the battlefield of Ukraine. Second, who in their right mind believes that the Russian military will allow those factories to operate? If production facilities, through some miracle, are erected then Russian hypersonic missiles and FAB glide bombs will be sure to make a visit. The only value of this agreement is the optics — it is a tacit vote of approval for Zelensky just when the Ukrainian military offensive is sputtering towards oblivion. Erdogan can show up in Vilnius as claim, “hey, I’m helping our little cocaine sniffing comedian, what are you doing?”
Then there are the AZOV commanders that Erdogan cut loose. Major Serhii Volynskyi, pictured above, claims that he wound up in Turkey, after surrendering at Mariupol, because of a secret deal negotiated between Russia and the United States that allowed “high-ranking US officers” to escape capture.
I am skeptical of this narrative for the simple reason that there has not been a single leak about such a deal until now. If there really were “high-ranking” U.S. officers trapped in and subsequently freed from Mariupol word of that would have been circulating in U.S. military and intelligence back channels. This sounds more like an information operation — i.e., propaganda — to plant the seed of doubt about Russia’s willingness to confront the United States. I await some corroborating information before buying into this story.
Lastly, we have Erdogan pandering to Biden. What?!! Turkey is eager to join the collapsing European Union? Is Erdogan really this stupid? He apparently still fails to grasp that Europeans look down on Turkey as second-class citizens not worthy of being called “Europeans.”
“The Turkish President has asked European Union leaders to send a clear and strong message of support for his country’s accession to the EU.
Erdogan told Biden about his desire to revive the process of Turkey’s accession to the European Union.
The parties agreed to meet at a NATO summit and discuss relations between the two countries.”
This is bizarre. Does Erdogan really believe that Dementia Joe (e.g., Long Live the Queen) carries clout with the Europeans and can get him a deal to pave the way for Turkey to join the Europe club? Just does not add up. Furthermore, other European nations, especially Germany (which is home to a lot of Turks) does not share Erdogan’s desire to expedite Ukraine’s entry to NATO.
Germany will push for a postponement of Ukraine’s NATO membership at the Vilnius summit starting July 11, a source told The Telegraph. Berlin will call on the Allies to focus on security guarantees.
The most likely negative fall out from Erdogan’s antics is the end of the Grain Deal. Russia now has little incentive to renew that agreement and is more likely to step up naval activity in the Black Sea in order to shutdown Ukraine’s access to maritime commerce.
Erdogan has done some foolish things in the past and has a knack for self-inflicted wounds. Maybe he is in the early stages of dementia as well. While his shenanigans may burnish his image with the West, which is facing economic headwinds and major setbacks in Ukraine, Turkey’s position as a “reliable negotiating partner” has been destroyed. The next few weeks will be interesting to say the least.
Erdogan will end up with nothing, though probably there was a big bribe under the table and Turkey will suffer as a consequence.
When I was growing up there was a saying when doing a deal a friend would whisper in your ear that’s a chancy boy he will turn Turk on you watch him closely I see nothing has changed.
Erdogan is a snake operating in the slimy waters between NATO and Russia, being loyal to No One but himself. Thereby he has succeeded in drawing concession after concession from both the US, EU and Russia.
Why?
Because, Turkey is the plug in and out of the Black sea, and has the second Largest Military in Europe.
Nobody trusts Erdogan.
Erdogan demanded that Turks living in Germany should be allowed to have a Turkish party in Germany. Germany said No, and will never allow Turkey into the EU.
Nor will any of the other 27 EU member states because Erdogan blackmailed the EU for money or he would send the refugees held in Turkey towards the EU.
Sweden will rater stay out of NATO than arrest the PKK members who has fled to Sweden.
The US has even tried to regime change (Kill) Erdogan.
After that the US demanded the return of US nuclear weapons from Turkey.
And the US denied Turkey to buy the F-35 Fighter jets and Patriot missiles.
At the time Erdogan ran to Putin for safety and were allowed to buy S 400.
I’m shure that after the Vilnius summit Erdogan will fly to Moscow groveling before Putin. Just as he did when the US tried to kill him, or when Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet inside Syria.
Yes there was a secret deal between Russia and the US that allowed high-ranking NATO officers to escape capture from the Azovstall plant.
The Saker blog reported about the capture at the time, and even named the High Ranking US officer and identified the nationality of the other NATO commanders released via mediation by Erdogan.
The Ukrainian NAZI commanders were only a side show to cover for the big Fishes delivered via Turkey back to America, Britain and Germany.
After the capture of the Azovstall plant, Ukraine bombed the prison in Donbass holding the AZOV fighter, to stop the POWs from revealing that NATO officers were conducting war against Russia from inside the Azovstall plant.
I’m shure that there were no leak about this deal in the western Press, however the BRICKS Leaders must have had a good laugh when Putin showed them the Pictures of the captured NATO officers.
Maybe Erdogan´s “betrayal of Putin” was intended to open up this “can of worms” right before the Vilnius Summit.
I agree with you. This is the only scenario that makes sense. And, Bottom Line, Erdogan understands that RF will destroy Türkiye if he really XXs Putin.
Türkiye’s main function at this point is to enforce the Montreux Convention, and keep USN, RN, and whatever Macron has afloat out of the Black Sea.
Both Bulgaria & Romania have no stomach for challenging RF navy in the Black Sea, no matter what US/NATO/EU promise them. Here’s an analogy, taken from my childhood: Marlin Perkins of Mutual of Omaha’s Wild Kingdom said this countless times- “I’ll stay here in the safety of the Jeep while Jim checks on the sedated rhinoceros.” Based on the Cocaine Comedian’s visit to Sofia a few days ago, I doubt the Bulgarians and Romanians are volunteering for Jim’s job.
Don’t forget that returning high-ranking NATO officers affords the RF an opportunity to send a message directly to military leadership that the ideologues at State will not hear. Whatever they say in public, our top brass knows the real deal.
“Both Bulgaria & Romania have no stomach for challenging RF navy in the Black Sea”
Both Bulgaria and Romania don’t have a navy; what passes as “navy” there is just overglorified coast guard.
I’d know – I used to serve in bulgarian “navy”, when it actually had a chance to stand for more than 15 minutes versus the russians.
A good number of data points. The breaking of the agreement has freed Russia in many ways. The agreement had two welcomed results for Russia. The purpose of grain shipment was intended for Africa, instead it has been diverted to the EU consumer and now the flow will dry up.
Without a need for Odessa as an open port for grain shipments to feed poor Africans any longer, the capturing of Odessa has become the stategic and later the tactical goals of Russia the minute NATO admits Ukraine. This is when Russia will blitzkrieg to the Polish border and leave nothing of the Ukraine to be admitted. This move has been planned and is in waiting, otherwise why is Russia mobilizing so much. If and when the push to the Polish border unfoldes, it will provide NATO with a much needed sobering reality and will put the fear of God into the clowns of the EU Parliment. Russia will offer the Western region of Ukraine to Poland and that will be the end of Ukraine.
The one major switch in Russia’s attitude toward the “honorable” Europeans, has been one from a hopeful partnership to one of recognizing an enemy for who he really is.
Russia has been ahead of the curve and I doubt what has happened is just Erdogan being stupid. Putin offered Turkey to become an energy hub into Europe, and Erdogan will never jeopardize all these transfer fees while Turkeye is suffering its economic condition. I think, for a change, the Europeans are being played. Putin is playing to his Global South supporters, and admitting Ukraine into NATO can’t be mistaken for anything else except escalation, freeing Putin to take off the gloves without looking as the aggressor. There is more to this than is being offered. Anyway as the saying goes, the news that costs money today. will cost nothing tomorrow.
You are correct in your analyses but with Erdogan I would not rule out the display of sheer spitefulness, which is in his character. Putin has canceled the grain deal for a simple reason – that the signed agreements on that deal were not implemented with regard to Russian interests. Hence, no more deal. Erdogan knows the reasons but cannot help himself – that was a nice little earner for him that is dried up now. The gas hob deal is also getting a bit slow, since idiots in EU decided to commit suicide and cut themselves off from cheap and plentiful supply of Russian gas that ran their industries. Russia is not opening that tap as fully as he hoped since Russia has other routes to use for it’s gas and for it’s friendly customers, like China and India, for example. Turkish Stream was simply a replacement for South Stream when Bulgaria had it’s arms twisted by degenerates in US and EU to cancel that project, half of which was already constructed. Bulgaria lost BIG time and with NO expected compensation BTW, from those said degenerates for such great sacrifice. Ha!
Erdogan has always been a loose canon – Putin not once had to put him on the short leash but this turk is just what he is – an ego driven wannabe “sultan” of his imaginary, reconstructed in his head, so-called “Ottoman Empire”. Sadly for him every move he makes is wrong; talk about wet dreams – a delusional narcissist who is trying to play both sides at once, the game which he will lose..
Totally agree with you. I remember that when he got the S 400 he tried not to pay because he wanted Russia to provide to Turkey the access codes which would have permitted the S 400 to be reprogrammed to use the system against Russia.
Erdogon’s betrayal is entirely predictable.
Ahh, typo – was meant to be “gas hub”, not gas hob, : ))
Ergodan is running the table for now and he thinks he is outsmarting them all but he is only fooling himself, and creating enemies who will exact payback in due time. His reach is greater than his grasp owing to widespread hostilities but that will not last beyond this conflict. He is a hustler and having great fun playing both ends against the middle with considerable success, but he is playing with the wrong ones on all sides. He will get bit yet.
Erdogan was saved from being assassinated by Obama in 2016, when the US was trying to install a stooge Turkish government, by Putin. This was part of the US war preparations. One would have thought Erdogan would return the favour. But maybe Putin is already talking to Erdogan and there is a deeper agreement here. Especially since Erdogan is now supporting Sweden and West Asia is moving to BRICS. He is backing the wrong horse.
I called Putin naive to the point of stupidity for trusting time and again every leader that betrayed him, time and again. Seems like “backstabbing” is in the cards for Putin these days… But, who knows (but him), he may be smarter than any one of us thinks. I know he always thinks many steps ahead of everybody else – that is my only hope for Russia.
But, in regards to that darn grain deal, can somebody tell me why can’t Putin do that via Azov sea/Sevastopol etc with Turkey/UN on their own without Ukraine? WHY do they need Ukraine at all when Russia’s grain storage is more plentiful and can go to the right places? Is there something that escapes me in this situation?
Grain deal was done as a favor to Erdogan, in exchange for something. Turkey is desperate for money, and grain deal got them lots of profit. It was extended before elections to help Erdogan win. If it is extended again, if will be because of some behind-the-curtain bargaining. Welcom to realpolitik.
“I called Putin naive to the point of stupidity …”
That says more about you than him. He has access to all kind information, no one else has. They guy is also the greatest political figure of this century. What are you? What puts you in a position to insult anyone?
I still believe it likely that the prisoner release was done for Putin and the grain deal. Failing that notion, and looking to the long-term, every broken deal gives Putin a bigger hand when it comes to negotiations to end this war. At the least, it was an Erdogan move for the sake of Erdogan. He plays both sides, always for himself. Like many dictators, he will believe in his godhood, and that he can keep balancing on this circus wire. He survived the earthquake scandal. Few sociopaths in our world would’ve had that ability. I have to give him credit for having walked this far above the ring.
This war is a masterclass in Machiavellianism, from Putin, Erdogan, Zelensky, Orban, Lushenko, Da Silva and India. My country of South Africa hasn’t played at their level. The USA has been the worst but it’s got the advantage of being supported by a hundred million idiots believing flag waving is more important than human killing.
NB: I do not include the beautiful inquiring minds I follow as part of the idiot American mass. May you copulate and procreate sanity.
Pure speculation but could be Erdogan pandering to the Turkish opposition by bringing the EU bid back into play. Brussels will never go for it for those meager gestures (if for any) and I think Erdogan knows it but then he can say “I tried but you see how they treat us?”
It’s Turkiye after all.
Syria maybe the key, Rooskies AF have gone hot on the Militants, many of which are Turkish clients
True….Turkiye has many aces up its sleeve to play.
to HMMM
So is Russia. It has enough levers to bring Erdogan down and it will be using these as needed, accordingly.
Just saw the article that Erdogan offered Sweedish NATO membership for fast tracking Turkey for EU member status – lol.
Pure speculation.
Looks like Sweden’s deal has happened. Maybe just half speculation?
Yes – it gives Putin reason to not negotiate under any circumstances because nobody can be trusted to hold up their end. A good rationale for continuing to destroy anything and everything “military” in Ukraine and then dictate terms.
IMHO, Putin has never really ‘trusted’ Erdogan- he and his team are too sophisticated for that – but he has always negotiated in a way to achieve long term Russian objectives, and that includes some matter of compromise even if it is distasteful
It is also understood and accepted by the Russian paradigm of multipolarity (and diplomacy 101), that every country will be expected to pursue its own interests. Turkey is no different, except Erdogan is a snake and in breaking too many deals he may at some point find that himself ‘disappearing in the sands of time’. In the meantime, my guess is that the Russians will not act rashly- Putin never does- but they will keep managing the larger agenda.
As for Turkey, it is still mired in an economic and banking crisis and its newest head of the Central Bank, is a former managing director of Goldman Sachs. Perhaps it was another move to appease Western interests, but she also may be a ‘Trojan Horse’ and become Erdogan’s ‘Achilles heel’.
I agree. Erdogan is just playing alchemist, adding a few drops of pro NATO spin to the potion before the summit. Erdogan will be sure to prioritize himself on a minute by minute basis.
Russia understands the importance of Turkey and will likewise tinker to be sure that relationship is balanced. Erdogan got his message through about Syria knowing Russia needs them to remain fully ambivalent. There will be no reprisal from Russia, just more calculated moves keeping in mind Turkey’s penchant for playing both sides against the middle.
Well, no overly reprisals, but other ones, not so visible, will come his way and those will be very painful. He will expierence Russia’s displeasure with him once again and then the urgent need to pull his head in! Or else!!
Good observation. Justice will catch up with the Banderites, and the SMO will roll onwards. Once again Putin has done the right thing and it’s opportunists who exploited the grain deal, so when it comes to an end we’ll see who starts squealing.
“the Russian paradigm of multipolarity”
An oxymoron of/for morons?
RE: “He survived the earthquake scandal. Few sociopaths in our world would’ve had that ability.”
You are forgetting that he survived LARGELY due to Putin’s economic and political support to him. All those “major energy hubs” and nuclear power station, existing grain deal that was prolonged ONLY to support Erdogan’s election – Putin (foolishly!) was bending over backwards for him all the time! This “good friend” of Putin did not even wait long enough to betray him on ALL fronts!
Erdogan IS Erdogan that cares ONLY for himself. But Putin is Putin that promotes every one of his “best friends and partners”. Not too far is the time that Chinese did the same 180 degree flip 🙁
Yes, Putin did a LOT for Russia and he ALWAYS supports his partners and never betrays them – inside of Russia and in the outside borders – but, unfortunately, not everyone in the world is like him and really appreciates it. I just wonder, for such a strong and smart “chess player” and leader, WHEN will he realize that with his excessive honesty and “open hand” playing, realize that it is really STUPID to be that naive and puts in danger his people and country? I hope that with such policy the 180 degree flip will not happen to Russia itself and reverse it to the 1990-s.
That would be a tragedy of honesty…
Well, there goes that Turkish gas hub. Moved to Iran in the blink of an eye.
Exactly my thought. And well deserved.
Exactly my sentiment. I think that the rival of Erdogan was heavy on the west platform so Erdogan was showing his “Western feathers.” But sitting on two chairs will harm him for sure. Refresh my memory, but wasn’t MBS involved in this high level prisoners exchange too?
Having a cheek on each seat leaves a vulnerable, exposed crack that’s easily shafted.
I perceive some Western ear-tickling here. Fondoff Lying may be flattered at the EU comments, but I wouldn’t expect the Head Gardner, Jungle Josep wanting anything as wild and weedy spoiling his manicured lawns. I doubt this is a good time to enlist support from the French, Belgians and Dutch for a largely Moslem nation to join their little clic.
On the eve of a NATO meeting he’s favoured Ukraine joining the club, but the fine print reads ‘not yet’ and he knows there are others who will fight to prevent it happening. It’s likely timed to deflect a bollocking from other members for being Putin’s pal.
There are others of the opinion that releasing the Nazis is not entirely unwelcome in Russia as it gives them something to huff and puff about as an excuse to get out of the dud of a grain deal. And back on their home turf, they have a target on them wherever they show up.
One wonders, how are the sales going of Turkish drones in light of their current battlefield performance? What’s becoming apparent is that drone development in capabilities, countermeasures and tactics proceeds at a pace akin to aircraft development in WW1. What was deadly in March last year is vulnerable if not obsolete now.
Getting some licence fees without actually having to make the drones or be seen to export them is an easy way to get some of the billions being sloshed into the Great Ukrainian Port Barrel.
I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss gas hubs and drilling rigs – business is business and these are long-term projects that transend the current thing of the daily news cycle.
Seems to me, in a 1,000+ years, little has changed in the intriguing, impenetrable world of Byzantine politics.
Yes. Agree 100%. I think Erdogan is really ticked that Russia is double crossing Turkey by agreeing that Iran become the regional gas hub. So he, Erdogan, just went FU to Putin.
Turkish gas hub isn’t going anywhere. It’s too much profitable for everyone involved. This media barking is just for the show.
Would Turkey invasion of Cyprus be an issue to the EU?
I think they’d be more concerned with their shutting down of LGBTQ++++ parades.
Ouch…first time ever I got that alphabet soup right. Should I be worried?
Didn’t you miss the I’s and A’s? They’ll be coming to cancel you now!
Like Tucker Carlson, I’m still waiting to meet my first + person. I wonder what they screw?
I’ve probably thankfully missed a lot that I’m not missing. I’m sure you can find videos of what you wonder somewhere. Sit in on your nearest grammar school classes and you’ll probably not have to wait long.
LSMFT has been wired in my brain since infancy and cannot be replaced.
Lucky Strike Mighty Fine Tobacco, next only to the Camels that I’d walk a mile for.
The very beginnings of the trade of manufacturing consent.
The Soviets were less subtle. They had a brand of cigarettes called Udarniy Otvet (retaliatory strike). T’is true. Held a pack in my hands.
That already happened some time ago, and Turkey occupies half the island. Or do you mean invade the other, Greek half?
The Greek half is in the EU as a full member. They have a veto over Turkey’s admission to the Union.
They’ve been in limbo for what, almost 50 yrs now? You can buy seaside property in the Turkish north for relatively cheap, with the proviso that you might not end up actually owning it sometime in future.
After reading this post from Larry, I’m at loss to make sense of this. But I’m sure all the brilliant tacticians & strategists will enlighten us!
I think most of us are with you on this. One other background bit to remember is Turkey has the second largest NATO force behind the US. Erdogan needs those weapons and forces to stay in power. He gets a bit from Russia, but the bulk comes from the US so the US has leverage as well, like it or not.
“It does make Putin look both foolish and weak …”
“The only value of this agreement is the optics …”
“This sounds more like an information operation — i.e., propaganda — …”
This is condensed version of all these “news”. It’s just entertainment for the masses to keep the grift going. NATO now have some “victories” for the summit. I guess now they don’t have to blow up that nuclear power plant.
Russia has been on record for quite some time that the grain deal will not be renewed. This is the response from the Turks, and it does have the scent of a bit of pique from Erdogan. The EU gambit reminds me nothing so much as a spurned lover running back to an ex for solace.
But the Turks have too big guns that they’re keeping holstered: Swedish membership in NATO and opening up the Black Sea to more traffic. Until that happens this is a mere storm in a cup.
One of Erdogan’s relatives is running the grain ships no doubt.
Not any longer….
So one of the big guns has been drawn. More symbolic than substantive but definitely a PR win for those that needed it. I expect Russia will ignore Turkey for quite some time now and let them reap the “reward” of their actions. I think any reward from the West will be symbolic as well, and whatever issues motivated Erdagon’s actions will remain unresolved.
I believe Erdagon has gone this route because he is trying to get out in front of something.
Possibly because Putin is foolish and weak?
Putin shows all the signs of the classic battered wife syndrome. No matter how many times NATOstan has torn up agreements and treaties or made in his face, he always agrees to another go.
And I’m absolutely not going to hold my breath about Putin abrogating the Grain Deal either, not unless I see it but just formally dumped but Russia making sure it can’t informally go ahead.
At this point Putin’s “agreements” with his “Western partners” carry no weight with anyone at all.
Oh, give it a rest. The guy’s just been trying to get along for 20 yrs and lesson learned, no doubt.
NATO expansion has been a burr in the Russian saddle for decades. The west just wasn’t smart enough to read the consequences correctly. Stuff happens, now it’s Darwin’s Rules giving that Whatsis Rules-Based Intl Order thingy the boot. Should’a listened.
All heil our new prophet!
“shows all the signs of”
Looking at all the numerous post you make everyday across various sites, you display all the signs of a classic cubicle dwelling troll. Do you get a daily rate?
“And I’m absolutely not going to hold my breath”
I’d be willing to bet a large amount of readers would love it if you did that for a couple of days
“Looking at all the numerous post you make everyday across various sites, you display all the signs of a classic cubicle dwelling troll”
And not just that, he is nearly always the first to post. The Saker once said that is the number one sign of a troll.
And not just that, he is banned on other blogs. Larry is way to kind to him.
I heard someone call Vilnius, Vileness instead. Thought it was funny!
Saying “yes” to Ukraine for NATO is a nothing-burger. They’ll never get in. They’re not even a country anymore.
I read someone’s comment that Erdogon’s stance makes President Putin putting the squash on the grain deal that much easier. Russia wasn’t profiting from it anyway and this gives Russia and easy “out”.
And someone else mentioned if these AZOV guys had a brain cell left, they’d head for Europe real fast. 10 to 1 odds. I’d leave too!
These non-Western leaders know how to play the game. Really have my head spinning. Can’t keep up! We only have our “Dip-lo-Mat” Joe Biden and L.A.’s ex-Chief of Police (Corruption Central…Mafia-in-Chief) Gil Garcetti’s son as a Diplomat to India to compare! ’nuff said!
What are the chances of all the theatrics being planned out with Putin to give 1 – tit for tat ground to pull out of grain deal and 2 – a reputational blow to whole of NATO as being agreement incapable (yet again) and disqualifying NATO countries from any future negotiations.
Maybe something to that. The return of the AZOV thugs could have them back in the frontlines with a short life expectancy. As for promoting NATO membership it is really a hollow gesture as many in the NATO circus seem opposed to the idea.
Well, the guy already said that he doesn’t want to go straight to the front. I guess he’s not so eager to kill Russians any more.
In terms of ‘denazifying’ Ukraine, getting these Azov commanders back in Ukraine where they can be killed is a plus. It never really made sense to keep a bunch of the most rabid Nazi leaders safe until the end of the war – at which time they could return and be a spearhead for more anti-Russia actions.
Turkey is doing Russia a favour by sending them back to Ukraine – hopefully to be sent back to the front lines and killed.
I’m waiting more for the cluster munitions tit for tat around the corner.
NATO countries disqualified themselves from any negotiations long ago.
let us not forget that the group of prisoners handed over by Erdogan to Zelensky are soldiers who surrendered to Russian forces. Attention! They surrendered. What repercussions may unfold, on Zelensky’s part, we shall see.
What is certain is that the small group is no longer trusted in Zelensky’s eyes. Will they be punished by being sent to death in the field, or will this group be the core of the revolution that will begin in Kiev in the autumn?
Maybe.
However, Erdogon is under OTAN pressure over blocking Sweden. OTAN has been floating ‘negotiation’ and ‘cease-fire in place’ talks since even before the last great ukronazi ‘offensive’ landed with a dud. The big OTAN Wannsee Conference II is coming up in a few days in Villianous, isn’t it?
The sending the failed azov nazis untergruppencrapos back to banderistan, as Larry notes, destroys any credibility as a mediator for Erdogan. Self-inflected error or intentional end to any Turkish role in the OTAN fantasy talks? RF doesn’t even have to reject a re-opening of the talks that boris baffoon spiked early on in the SMO now, does it?
Licensing ineffective Turkish drone production in 404 – betrayal of RF, or collect some of OTAN $$$ for crapware that will be destoyed by RF space forces anyway? Sounds like easy money…for nothing.
Spiking the Minsk-like grain deal – blow to RF or convient end to the OTAN charade without RF direct action to end it?
Drinking from the same cup as brandon bidette or ….?
Yes, Erdogan charts a singular course. He is resposnible for Turkey, after all.
Interesting timez….
“TURKEY’S ERDOGAN BETRAYS PUTIN”
Certainty is the greatest weakness and hope the second greatest weakness.
I wondered yesterday why Erdogan would do such a thing, in spite o being a ver duplicitious person…
IMHO, the Azov commanders were secure on Turkey´s custody until the end of the conflict, as agreed with Putin and the Russian MoD…
Once liberated, they are available to go to the front, due the current scarcity of commanders and troops…there are videos in Telegram of people being inmobilized by four of five thugs in military fatigues in Odessa so that to bring them to the front by force…
I saw photo of the welcoming ceremony by Zelensky to this group of Azov commanders, Kalyna, Volyna, etc… and, by their body langauage, serious faces and worryness in expression, clenched fists, they, either wanted to punch Zelensky…. or were thinking of their dark destiny at the front again….
Enough of holidays in Istanbul, when Ukrainian “volunteers” are dying in the thousands every day….
“worryness in expression, clenched fists, they, either wanted to punch Zelensky…. or were thinking of their dark destiny at the front again”
Romanticism is for the “starry eyed”, and blogs for the “geo-politics/stomach rumblings” of adolescents pondering whom is “dating” whom.
Marie Antoinette’s alleged observation of let them eat cake was wise except in terms of obesity, since testing “significant hypotheses” of which some are certain, will likely prove more dis-advantageous than obesity and/or diabetes.
Durum beter
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSyOrCpQz5Y
“Durum beter?”
Evaluation is a function of purpose and facility, including of testing hypotheses with benefit of approriate methods and co-operators, so it depends on who you ask and who will “commincate” within “acceptable tolerances” of spectator framing as a function of their purposes thereby limiting facilities of others including spectators.
An illustration being a comment from 08/07/23 in a different thread:
“”Given that it was a deal with Huawei it’s safe to assume that they are networking with 5g technology or something better. That means direct links and coordination with engineers, suppliers and the factory floor across China and Russia ”
“it’s safe to assume”.
Like Boeing – you have left some components behind.”
expanded as :
MirrorGazers says
10 July 2023 at 11:38
“Romanticism is for the “starry eyed”, and blogs for the “geo-politics/stomach rumblings” of adolescents pondering whom is “dating” whom.”
and myriad others including but not limited to:
“Marxism is an economic theory which has some merits.”
Marxism has never and does not exist de facto but at one point did de jure, only Dialectical Historical Materialism.
The obfuscation of Dialectical Historical Materialism was initiated in 1925 to create a cult/religion by the Bolsheviks which became Marxism/Leninism/Stalinism/Moaism/(subtract Maoism) in due course.
However as was regulary the case, some remembered the Soviet observation that one hundred make the law and one hundred million find ways around it.
……………………….
All of the above were/are components of the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation and the developing relations between The People’s Republic of China and The Russian Federation from at least 1995 onwards.”
since
” blogs [are} for the “geo-politics/stomach rumblings” of adolescents pondering whom is “dating” whom.
RE What Will NATO do in response to the question re Mr. Brezhnev et al comment 255 if published:
“Do you mean that that move by Brezhnev turned the Japanese into oponents for the ages to come?”
No.
Among other things the medal collector and his associates facilitated Mr. Abe, his associates and thereby were complicit in the outcomes, which included the accelerations and widenings of vectors of transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation, since like Mr. Biden and his associates, Mr. Brezhnev and his associates were/are short-sighted clowns with similar purposes namely: to limit change within linear paradigms of “acceptable tolerances” in environments where lateral change is a constant wherein variables include but are not limited to trajectories and velocities.
“oponents for the ages to come?”
Lateral change is a constant rendering velocities variables precluding “opponents for the ages to come”, why opponents are opponents not “enemies”, and components facilitating “blogs [are} for the “geo-politics/stomach rumblings” of adolescents pondering whom is “dating” whom.”, seeing-is-believingness, and why spectators should consider following Marie Antoinette’s alleged observation since in part she was guillotined because they didn’t eat cake whilst some sans-cullotes continued knitting.
“Do you mean that that move by Brezhnev turned the Japanese into oponents for the ages to come?”
No.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2023/07/good-points-from-larry-michael-hudson.html
“Both the Americans and the Russians quietly agreed to live with those actions without risking escalation into a direct conflict. They continued to have normal diplomatic contacts and negotiated arms control agreements in spite of the covert proxy wars. Each side knew what the other was doing but each side also took steps to try to hide their actions. “.
Until when and why?
The acquiescence in detente on the believed basis of agreed spheres of influence and the alchemy of gold into paper were in large part predicated on the initial “mutual understanding” by a faction within the Politburo whose figurehead was Mr. Brezhnev that “The Soviet Union” and “The United States of America” required the existence of one another for mutual sustainability, and hence a component the limited efforts of “The Soviet Union” in “Latin America” until 1975 in conjunction with the romanticism of the membership of Junta Coordinadora Revolutionaria (JCR) and their concommitant potentials facilitating the “Condor Years” and the (JCR)’s destruction.
However by 1973 “The United States of America” had started to realise, partly due to contretemps in South West Asia, that the alchemy of gold into paper and spheres of influence were not sufficient to facilitate “Morning in America”, and hence some factions in “The United States of America” increased their efforts prior to the commencement of “The Condor Years” using Chile in processes of proof of concept to untie the apparent Gordian knot of apparently requiring the existence of “The Soviet Union” for the continued existence of “The United States of America”, and undermined the Presidency of Mr. Carter by being a force multipler in its termination.
That also facilitated the widening and acceleration of vectors/velocities of the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation with the complicity of “The United States of America” by the expansion of the activities by “The Soviet Union” in what some in the Brezhnev faction of the Politburo in 1979 that Afghanistan laid within their “agreed” sphere of influence, despite contrary advice given by some of the intelliegence/military sources – the “Soviet” war in Afghanistan being a significant further accelerator/amplifier/widener of vectors/velocities of the ongoing transcendence of both “The Soviet Union” and “The United States of America”, thereby illustrating Mr. Johnson’s observation that “Soviet and Russian counter-intelligence” was and remains intelligent.
*** “Erdogan has done some foolish things in the past and has a knack for self-inflicted wounds. Maybe he is in the early stages of dementia as well. While his shenanigans may burnish his image with the West, which is facing economic headwinds and major setbacks in Ukraine, Turkey’s position as a “reliable negotiating partner” has been destroyed.” ***
Early onset dementia is as good an explanation as any I can conceive. Might Erdogan wants to get in a premptive payback for the collapse of the grain deal? But why on earth would he be hyping Ukraine as ‘deserving’ to be in NATO? What’s in it for either him or Türkiye?
Could be late onset megalomania is also a credible diagnosis.
He is pleasing “Western partners”. What he got in return, is anyone’s guess.
“TURKEY’S ERDOGAN BETRAYS PUTIN”
“Is she really going out with him?
Dunno lets ask her
Betty is that Jimmy’s ring your wearing ?
Ah-ha
Where’d you meet him ?
I met him in the candy store
He turned around and smiled at me
You get the picture
Yes we see
That’s when I fell for the leader of the pack “
Do you have any idea why since some time ago everybody in the US is saying “Turkïye” to refer the country Erdogan´s rules right now, which is the word in Turkish language, instead of the old “Turkey” in English?
I ignore whether there is a new rule by the English Academy of Language that we are not aware of….
Turkey demanded the name change. They are still on the fence about the pronouns. As far as sexuality goes, they want to get in bed with everyone and no one and at same time.
Turkey wanted it changed to Turkiye as I understand it, especially after so many lame westerners started pronouncing everything in Ukraine renamed to Ukrainian rules, like good puppy dogs. Banderastan never caught on though.
Turkey sounds too much like gobble gobble turkey and Erdogan was getting nervous having his neck exposed for so long.
I’m waiting for Chile to insist it be renamed Concarne, Hungary to insist on Magyaritaville, France on Frog Hollow and Great Britain to Great Bratland. Ukraine can take advantage of its army of lemmings and go with Overthecliffsedgeland.
France will be renamed to Freedomfriesland, and Freedom Fries (formerly known as French Fries) will be renamed to Freedomfriesland Fries.
It’s said that Macron has arranged a private meeting with Erdogan in Vilnius, to ask for tips on successful two-facing.
“I ignore whether there is a new rule by the English Academy of Language that we are not aware of….”
A moderating of language catalysed by panic from:
https://www.rt.com/news/579487-biden-angry-abuse-aides/
to let’s pretend.
There still remain some options available like consistently transcending “n*ggers” by “African Americans” failing to remember how they ended up in “America”.
Erdogan has been playing both sides of the fence since before the failed CIA coup attempt in Turkey a few years back.
Maybe he thinks he’s a reincarnation of Tito who tried to play the USSR against the USA for influence. Not sure. He can’t be happy with Russia supporting Syria and the Saudis and others accepting Syria back into the Arab fold. Erdogan has also expressed what seems to be some delusional aspirations for a modern Ottoman Empire. He’s facing crazy inflation at home and seems to be a failure on all fronts other than keeping power. Not sure what he’s thinking here, but it seems all his thinking is very short term focused as he has a lot of immediate problems. Maybe worse if Russia cuts off his gas.
This is what the great regional powers always do! Since always. It didn’t just start a few years ago.
Erdogan has back-stabbed Putin before to play footsies with the West.
He reminds me of RINO Lindsey Graham… always trying to walk the fence to appease one side and then the other. It’s like he thinks he has to throw treats to the Left once in a while, even though the Right hates him for it, all to secure some mythical “middle ground”.
Is that Erdogan ? Not only with the voters in his country, but also playing the middle ground between East and West, similar to India ? Of course it is.
The problem with that is this: Someone who doesn’t stand for something, stands for nothing.
Spineless fence-walkers are essentially untrustworthy liars… to both sides. You might do a little business with them, but with limited exposure because of the possibility they’ll stab you in the back.
Your last para is an excellent summary.
Turkey’s involvement in the early stage of the war was helpful to Russia, since Putin needed to show the Global South that he was trying to avoid a needless war.
But now the Global South is so strongly aligned with Russia that Erdogan’s action betrays Turkey more than Russia. Russia is most unlikely to accept Turkey as an impartial intermediary in future, nor a country with which Russia cares to deal on substantive trade or other matters.
Lindsay Grahamcracker is more of a runt than a rhino.
Unless my memory is utterly faulty, Simplicius76 is doing a major bit of deliberate misinformation here:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/azov-commanders-return-6th-column
Prokopenko and the Azov nazis weren’t sent to Ottomanistan at the time of the Azovstal surrender and as a condition of the Azovstal surrender as he claims: the were sent to Ottomanistan several months later as a trade for Putin’s chum (and dad of Putin’s goddaughter) Medvedchuk. I clearly recall photos of Volyn in a Russian prison colony, on cleaning duties, around July last year.
I remember at the time they were sent to Moscow and that’s how they avoided the himars hit on the Azov prisoners’ barracks. I also recall that these commanders sworn vengeance for killed Azovs in this himars hit. And if course it was Ukraine as they wanted no witnesses as to what orders the West was giving to Azov. I won’t be surprised if they’d look into WTH was done to their people.
I have my doubts about simplicius since a while.
I dont know exactly what it is but the constant flow of very long and well written and pictured articles have something odd to me.
And yes they where in Russian prisons before ending up in Turkey
https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/ukrayina-povernula-na-batkivshinu-pyatoh-zahisnikiv-azovstal-84209
But Russia exchanged many Azov Nazi commanders before for 55 Russian Pows
Strange situation anyhow
Why? Are the Nazis super fighters? Most likely they only create problems in the structure of the AFU! The Nazis like NATO as much as from Russia! so much from Russia and NATO! The only value this theme has is its symbolism among teenagers on social media. But the nations play in another league!
Even a good fighter armed with a knife in a gun fight is more of a fodder than a fighter.
You are just salty because he mentions you in the very first sencence.
Erdogan has been put under immense pressure from the U.S because it’s stance on Sweden’s application to NATO. They blackmail Turkey with the situation on the battlefield in Syria where Turkish troops are a bit in a tight spot right now. Sweden joining NATO wouldn’t change the situation on the battlefield, but it would be a pr-victory and take the spotlight away from the dire state of the Ukrainian counter offensive and give a positive aura to the Vilnius summit. Erdogan can’t let Sweden join NATO after the Quran burning demonstrations in Sweden, that would be political suicide for him. So he throws a bone to the wolves in Washington by cutting these Azov commanders loose and letting out hot air about supporting Ukraine’s NATO ambitions. There’s zero chance in hell for Ukraine to join NATO so it’s just optics.
The rumour at the time was that the AZOV Nazis holed up in Azovstal had hostages with them…. civil and foreign military… The deal for their surrender was a safe exfiltration from the Russians otherwise there would be no survivors from that long & horrendous siege …
Vengeance is a dish best served cold.
Did Ergodan suddenly forgive the West’s ops to deny him re-election, after their Putin foiled attempt to f’ng kill him? Yea, I don’t think so.
Real vengeance is when you help them believe you are a good little second stringer trying to stay in power playing their game, then you go about building your real power behind the scenes, and when they are distracted and weakened, unsuspecting, you come around the corner with a double barreled sawed-off shot gun and blow their heads with a little help from your (real) friends (metaphorically speaking, of course).
With so many geostrategic changes happening at the same time that also affect the TR, I won’t risk any guesses. But I’m not sure of the betrayal. No matter how many waves it raised on social media. And I don’t believe anything a Nazi spews either!
Trying to prevent Russia from abandoning the grain agreement would certainly have the opposite effect. So I don’t believe it. And much more important than the grain agreement is the energy hub for TR. Also in the hands of Moscow! The TR is definitely not in a position to piss off the RU, with runaway inflation, which Russian tourists over the last year must have helped a lot.
And conversations with those who just tried to eliminate him, at least politically, also raise big questions. The TR has nothing else to do in line with the West. And at the end of the day, who adds 5 bastards in a theater of operations where Russia eliminates at least 5K per week? And the result of supporting the UA’s entry into NATO is even more ridiculous! As usual everything connected with Kiev in this conflict is nothing but PR!
Finally, just remember that the agreement was not concluded after the Nazis left Azovstal, but to leave Azovstal! Where they trapped many Russian forces in a power plant with civilians in the basement that could not be imploded. Especially in a war on live on television. Meantime the bastards only passed through Russia to be heard! And now they’re back in the theater of operations, where we’ll see how long they last!
Now to be fair
Russia has been bombing the hell out of Turkish interests in syria
And Lybia, not to mention conflicting interests in the Balkans. Turkey and Russia were never allies. Just because they are not at each other’s throaths at the moment, doesn’t mean that they love each other. You can’t betray someone that never trusted you in the first place.
Never forget that after Libya’s invasion, HClinton arranged shiploads of their arsenal sent through Turkey to arm ISIS’s moderate rebels and turn Syria into a living hell.
How has the EU suffered under Washington’s wars of choice and hyper-immigration? Let me count the ways.
Kosovo – Albania’s most vicious gangs take over Europe’s drug trade
Libya – boatloads to the EU, consequences to be determined.
Syria – boatloads to the EU, consequences to be determined.
Ukraine – truckloads to the EU, consequences to be determined.
The EU is Washington’s punching bag.
Turks already stole anything of value in Syria. Now they’re pissed that Yanks are stealing their stolen Syrian oil and selling it into Iraqi Kurdistan instead.
Back in the day, ISIS controlled oil used to go into Turkey. Then Putin joined the chat, and bombed the shit out of those trucks. All of the West was shocked by that unprovoked act of aggression.
From Ukrainian commentator escaped to Russia a few years ago:
1. Five morons who have already been captured will not change the situation at the front.
2. Zelensky will yell what a help it is, but only because they don’t have any real help. He’s dead.
3. So these freaks were sitting at the resort, and after returning to their chances of living to the end of their lives sank greatly. I just didn’t like that they were safe in Turkey, and now they will be thrown to the front, where they will die.
4. Only Erdogan has disgraced himself (and Turkey at the same time). Because the whole planet saw that Rejepchik is a man without honor and does not keep his word.
“after returning to their chances of living to the end of their lives sank greatly”
I guarantee they will continue to live until the end of their lives, and not a minute longer.
Maybe something got mixed up in the translation. Other points are all good.
Frankly, I’d be rather pissed off having to leave a resort on the beautiful coast of Turkey for Ukraine even if there wasn’t a military-technical solution going on.
My two cents. Turkey as Senior Player at the “Peace Table”. The Table with a New Security Pact for All as a pot.
Kudos for your wishful thoughts.
Larry (and other commentators),
You are often correct, and you may be correct this time as well, but maybe you’re jumping the gun this time. Things may clear up over the next week or two.
I’m willing to wait a bit for things to clarify before concluding anything.
If you think this is jumping the gun, you should go back and read Prigozhin soap opera from the start.
Waiting for “clarification” really is a good idea, but this incident is so puzzling that jumping the gun with speculations is difficult to resist. 🙂
It’s far wiser to speculate on all possibilities, then keep a sharp eye on which best materializes and adjust reality accordingly than to enter the arena with a fixed and faulty notion, continue inventing stories to bolster it and then be caught with your pants down, like some who there’s no need to mention do.
Thinking back to the time of events at Azov Stahl. There was speculation that high ranking western officers were trapped there, hence the waste of helicopters and their crews. Also the azov spokesperson said that a military operation was underway and later that it had been completed. Shortly after that, they surrendered.
Inspection of the areas under Azov Stahl revealed one room in which a very strong fire had occurred. Bodies were reduced to ashes and a few bones. Also a charred US passport.
I have always wondered if this was the fate of the western officers
True or not, It’ll make a great movie someday. Mosfilm, no doubt.
I think the trade that sent the Azov commanders to Turkey is the trade that freed Viktor Medvedchuk from Ukraine’s gulag. That made it all worth it. Ukraine and Russia have already exchanged thousands of prisoners, so I don’t know that Putin will be seen as weak or foolish due to Erdogan’s behavior. The main priority seems to be getting people home where they belong.
The rumor about US officers being part of the Azov trade is surprising, but it’s certainly possible some ‘advisors’ were there. It’s just hard to believe that if it were true that the Azov commander would have talked about it, and that Larry’s contacts hadn’t heard about it.
Erdogan is not backstabbing or betraying Putin.
If you were these Ukrainian Azov officers, would you rather ride out the war under house arrest in Turkey “for the duration,” or be sent back to the Ukraine to face certain death in some minefield, rooting around for you blown off foot, before you bled out.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Erdogan sewed some Russian made passive array tracking chips into these Azov officer’s uniforms, or injected Russian made tracking devices into their bodies. “What? They are just vitamin shots.”
As part of Putin de-NAZI-fication goals, I bet these Azov officers are dead already.
Pretty far fetched but hey, it’s the thought that counts.
If Erdogan achieves his stated goal of having the Ukraine admitted to NATO then it’s Article 5 and World War III inside a week. Erdogan might very well be doing Russia a favor by pushing for NATO membership for the Ukraine, forcing the United States’ hand.
Article 5 is not an automatic trigger. It merely requires member state to consider military action. But the pressure for war would be increased if Ukraine entered NATO now. Indeed, under normal conditions, NATO will not consider a candidate for admission if that candidate has an ongoing border dispute. There are other requirements, too, like a functioning democracy and justice system.
“NATO will not consider a candidate for admission if that candidate has an ongoing border dispute. ”
No country can make any claims to sovereignty without secure borders. Russia knows that. Zelensky knows that. For a country that has no borders, the United States is obsessed with borders — just other people’s borders.
United States are obsessed about providing other countries with things that they don’t have, like borders, democracy, freedom, equality, human rights, freedom of speech, rule of the law, fair elections, etc.
It’s even more wishy washy than that. As can be seen it doesn’t even require them to consider only military action.
For example they could deem that only political support is required. It gives them an nice easy escape route in the event the opponent is too strong.
“…….will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force…..”
Ukraine’s bid has already been turned down by many others. Including the US and Germany. It is a nothing burger that may get Erdogan some brownie points, but does nothing for Ukraine’s membership.
Sending nazis to likely death, rather than seeing out the war in relative luxury is also a decision of dubious benefit to the Ukraine cause.
He is calling their bluff, for some reason. Not even the most brainwashed Ukros expect to get into NATO any time soon.
As Alexander Mercouris explains, the problem between Turkey and Russia is Syria. In Syria 3 powers are present:
– Assad with his allies: Russia, Iran, and now many Arab states,
– US, with the Kurds,
– and Turkey, in Idlib and the north of Syria.
And it seems now that Assad is reconquering some territories occupied by Turkey ant its allies.
“He [Erdogan] apparently still fails to grasp that Europeans look down on Turkey as second-class citizens not worthy of being called “Europeans.””
This is more institutionalized bigotry by the United States, who picked up right where NAZI Germany left off in 1945 by treating Russia and the Russian people as sub-humans.
What an a**hole the United States is.
United States have been exterminating sub-humans long before Nazis, and got away with it. It was Germans that tried to copy, but ran into sub-humans armed with tanks and super-human industrial capabilities.
Oh yeah? LOL Germany pretty much took on the entire world during WWII and almost won. Germany was under constant economic attack from the late 1800’s by the British. Just like Russia, Germany posed a massive economic threat to the British and US hegemony in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s. They were building some of the best ships in the world, building railroads into the middle east for oil etc. German ingenuity, innovation, and manufacturing was growing immensely pre WWI. Super human industrial capabilities? LOL By who? the Arabs? The Africans? Gimme a break. Germans are some of the smartest people on the planet. Russians are too.
“Super human industrial capabilities? LOL By who?”
By the untermensch that Germany tried to exterminate. Russians. They were making tanks like hot cakes. They still do.
“Germany pretty much took on the entire world during WWII and almost won.”
Everyone that went on Moscow “almost won”. Poles, French, Germans, Prigozhin. Russians are way too soft on those that try it.
“Germany was under constant economic attack from the late 1800’s by the British. Just like Russia, Germany posed a massive economic threat to the British and US hegemony in the late 1800’s and early 1900’s.”
It’s called Thucydides Trap. A smart German would make an alliance with Slavs right from the start, instead of trying to exterminate and colonize them. How smart is someone trying the same thing yet again, expecting different results?
Ah, you speak of the American Lebensraum of the 1800’s.
Ancient history. We’re ‘civilized’ now. 😉
not to mention the “master race” they copied from british india, where the brits, after 1857, declared themselves master race and the punjabis (now mostly pakistan) as secondary master race.
I remember at after the surrender the Azov commanders were sent to Moscow and that’s how they avoided the himars hit on the Azov prisoners’ barracks. I also recall that these commanders sworn vengeance for killed Azovs in this himars hit. And if course it was Ukraine as they wanted no witnesses as to what orders the West was giving to Azov. I won’t be surprised if they’d look into WTH was done to their people.
“Erdogan has done some foolish things in the past and has a knack for self-inflicted wounds. Maybe he is in the early stages of dementia as well.”
Do you think Erdogan got jabbed? Gotta love those Spike Proteins.
The United States still operates an Air Force base in Incirlik, Turkey. The base just changed out base commanders on June 30, 2023 — as a matter of fact. And — AND — nuclear weapons are stored at the Incirlik Air Base.
Demented like a fox maybe. Erdogan and Brandon were made for each other.
blame-e, “…Erdogan got jabbed?…”
The Pfizer mRNA vaccine (in USA), licensed from BioNTech (Europe), founded by Uğur Şahin, a Turk.
Erdogan acts in his own interests, however from a Turkish point of view isn’t that what he is supposed to do? Neither side would hold any illusions about Erdogan or his trustworthiness from their perspectives, what though is he really up to here, perhaps time will clear the fog. Both sides hold sugar and sticks, seems he is always chasing the former while dodging the latter.
I don’t believe Erdogan is doing anything without discussion with Putin.
Erdogan needs something at home to show he is strong in respect of what is happening is Syria and also to block Sweden in to NATO.
The prisoners, drone factory and promoting Ukraine in to Nato is just to give Nato one bone to chew on while blocking Sweden to save face at home.
In reality this will not change the SMO.
The “betrayal” will give Putin a reason to quit the grain deal.
Turkiye can not ask for joining BRICS one day and seriously ask to join EU the next.
Erdogan will not risk the gas hub. Why not two hubs? One in Turkiye for Europe and one in Iran for the Gulf states.
I guess it is a lot more to this than what meets the eye.
I have faith in that the communications behind the scene between Russia, China, Iran, Turkiye et.al is a lot more intense than one can imagine.
Of course. And it doesn’t mean that Russia agrees with all of Turkey’s passes. Turkey is a regional giant! But betrayal brings surprise that certainly didn’t exist. Maximum disappointment. But so many geostrategic shifts and mirror games are happening that it’s crazy to hazard a guess. No one wants to stay out of the big investment routes! Except for the propagandist of Washington and Kiev. That losers manipulate any loose ends. They still haven’t let go of Prigozhin’s bone!
Gulf states don’t need gas. Qatar is one of the largest gas producers of the world.
The true objective of the regime change and the war in Syria was precisely to cross Syria with a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe to replace Russian gas. But as usual many think it was to encircle Iran. All the wars of the last 30 years have been energy wars. Sources or routes. Including Yugoslavia.
All the wars are about resources. Oil and gas are among the most important ones, but there are others.
Yugoslavia was groundwork for what we see now. One does not go against Russia before taking control of all the in-between lands, aka Intermarium. After the end of Cold War, most of that bridghead fell into NATO hands by itself. Yugoslavia did not, and had to be taken by force.
The end goal are Russian resources. All of them, not just energy. Russia’s gas station have much more than gas to be robbed.
The Er 🐶at it again!!! Dogs are usually the most loyal of creatures, but the Er 🐶doesn’t even know the meaning of the word!
He is the kind that bite hads that feed him. 🐶
Turkiye
Coastline
7,200 km
Maritime claims
territorial sea: 6 nm in the Aegean Sea
exclusive economic zone: in Black Sea only: to the maritime boundary agreed upon with the former USSR
12 nm in Black Sea and in Mediterranean Sea
CIA world fact book ‘[wiki]
https://www.gac.com/turkey/shipping/canal-straits-transits
https://www.marineinsight.com/know-more/6-bosphorus-strait-facts-you-must-know/
Problems with Russian vessels through the Bosphorus Strait…. is a ground zero burn situation. Nato is a dance.
Russia is a wife.
Regarding the Azov guys, their life expectancy just took a plunge and I can’t help but think that the Russians on the frontline prefer them in Ukraine rather than sunbathing in Turkey. The odd thing is that all of those Erdoğan’s shenanigans are actually more damaging to him than to Russia. Perhaps Recep Tayyip’s megalomania ground his better judgment. Or maybe it’s early stage dementia indeed.
Erdogan has one big problem. His currency is failing and therefore everything he build/achieved for **himself** (his family) will burn when he’s regime and his country/economy goes bust with the collapse of the Turkish lira. He tried everything (of course the wrong way) to stabilize the problem, but he still thinks it is the involvement and manipulation from US that is damaging the Turkish lira. Fact is that he has no room to maneuver politically, if he doesn’t get that currency problem rectified.
This all started after he opposed the US by purchasing Russian military equipment and refusing all that US bullying and blackmailing to abandon this deal with Russia. After the lira plunged more in recent weeks, he might really be forced to do some serious ass-kissing to get a break from that problem. The sudden US statement that they are not involved in this scheme of him tells me the opposite … they are. This might be the reason for breaking that agreement with Russia. Erdogan was always a backstabber nonetheless, but I don’t see how he can profit from that sudden move. He’s desperate to avoid a crush of his currency that is really in free fall now. He might have won the election (one way or another), but the US can oust him from his own regime simply by technically destroying his currency and by doing so destroying his whole political image in that process.
CAUTION !!
The sultan is the master of the 1936 Treaty of Montreux. He could lift the ban on warships that was imposed in February 2022, which would give Crimea exactly the problem the West wants
It would give Turkey entry into WW3 as Bastion systems destroy NATO warships……it would also invalidate Treaty of Montreux which did not give Stalin all he wanted – US was not a signatory – it was designed to keep Germany out of Black Sea by British and French who knew after Anglo-German Naval Treaty 1935 the Kriegsmarine could supply through the Black Sea as in WW1
It’s obvious the bankers have a strong hold over NATO member Turkey by the neck. Like all the other limbs of the western camp, more and more of Erdogan’s maneuverings resemble those of a hardcore, very experienced street prostitute. At the end it all boils down to one final question: How Much? One can imagine a Muslim country Turkey jointing the EU and at the same time try expand to near Chinese border for the revitalization of its Ottoman Empire dream while other EU member including Sweden allow burning Koran. All of these contradictory combinations are possible but depends on How Much?
“He apparently still fails to grasp that Europeans look down on Turkey as second-class citizens not worthy of being called “Europeans.””
You fail to grasp that Turkey was never an European country?
Spain has some territory in Africa. That means we are African?
You only need to know a bit of History.
i think erdogan didn’t became an idiot bya day to another. probably turkey was threatened with sanctions and so a change of politcy was necessary to avoid them. indeeed erdogan didn’t provided anything useful beyond pr operations, and it seems too much zealot, to a point that the turkey stance now is fuelling more partisanery and disgregation: not just ukraine in nato, that’s embarassing, but turkey in eu is a very divisive proposal. the erdogan strategy is to play with a foot in 2 shoes, and it works someway, cause he knows how exploit his “allies” internal divisions at his own advantage
Maybe Erdogan made a deal with the Americans: don’t interfere with my reelection and I’ll support your interests in Ukraine. His political survival must be more important than his relations with Russia… and I will not be surprised if it turns out that he made another deal with the Russians.
This is what happens when you let a conflict go on and on. The Russian strategy is and has been foolhardy, and they are reaping what they have sown. You can keep trying to put lipstick on this SMO pig, but the truth is defense is a loser’s game. And the Russians are on the verge of losing control of this strategical situation and possibly the war.
– I remember an interview with Putin, where he said, that he may not agree with Erdogan, but that Erdogan keeps to his words.
It now seems to me, that Putin is not a good psychologist. He doesn’t know other people really well.
– the last election in Turkey showed, that the country is divided into two strong groups, and the support for Erdogan is just slightly above 50 percent. Erdogan has diabetes, and there is no one in line that will follow when he resigns. Add the inflation, and you see that Turkey is an unstable country, where a revolution could pop up because of many reasons. One would be serious health problems of Erdogan.
– Those freed Ukraine commanders are dangerous for zelensky. They are no heros, but had to surrender and so survived. A bad example for the Ukrainian army. Plain soldiers die for surrendering.
Yes.
This is what happens when you let a conflict go on and on.
Always the same frustration! Have you ever thought how much of the big picture of the great international board we can actually see? And at the end of these 15 months is Russia better or worse? Would anyone today call Russia a gas pump? And how did Russia fulfill your dream without huge costs like thousands of men? And where would these casualties push Moscow, the allies and the Russian economy? Do you really think that someone is sleeping at the wheel in the Kremlin?
Of course. At least half of the Internet is positive that they would do a better job than Putin, not to mention Surovikin, or those poor sods in the trenches.
Sorry, I forgot the fundamental. Russia entered Ukraine after triggering art-51 and everything that goes beyond that scope makes Russia enter an illegal war of aggression for territory. I honestly don’t see how. For Russia and Russia’s allies! Even if a lot of people have big plans for this war. I haven’t seen anything happen yet that makes Russia change the script. Russia will continue to erode the AFU to close off territory mostly occupied by ethnic Russians. IMO, of course.
LOL the doomer says so.
Turkey is blocking EU from deal with Ukraine unless it accelerates Turkey‘s membership first. Germany et al do not want Turkey which U.K. promoted to dilute France and Germany. Erdogan is playing a spoiler over Ukraine and Kosovo
Russians never trust the Turk even though Erdogan is not really a Turk, and Peskov snowman’s Turkish and was Ambassador there
Turkey is also selling 155mm SPGs
Turkey is in a bind and US is squeezing but Russia is key to the Turkish economy- there are lots of Turkish companies active in Russia and Oligarchs in Turkey want contracts in Little Russia when China invests
Little Russia?! The country with twelve time zones? I think you need to glance at the map of the World from time to time.
Little Russia, aka Malorossiya, aka Ukraina? I think you need to chill out from time to time.
Looks like Erdogan decided these jokers cost too much, have no more value.
This is pure Hollwood.
Maybe they will turn up there for The Movie.
Ukraine since Azovstahl is a junkyard – the jokers can see what happened first hand.
I think Rostislav Ishenko has a more sober assessment:
https://ukraina.ru/20230709/1047899069.html
(machine translation works fine)
Short Version: in the end, Erdo gave some symbolic tokens, giving Russia all means for doing what they like to do, showing how hard(ly) he try to work for NATO, and those Asov guys are now actually dead men walking. I wish good luck.
So the big nato bash is happening tomorrow.
A good time to bury Zealanski. That would wake up the talking shop and give something rational to discuss.
So if there was actually a secret deal between the U.S. and Russia regarding Azovstal, what did Russia get as I have not seen any benefit to Russia on the battlefield, with sanctions or in the press? In keeping with the speculations about Erdoğan’s decision, did he release the prisoners thinking it would help Turkey join the EU, thus getting more support with Turkey’s conflicts with Greece, an EU member?
The hardliners in Russia are probably saying to Putin what Marine Le Pen in France said to the Prime Minister of France recently: “We told you so!” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lbLRy25KlUg
John Rubino was on USAWatchdog Saturday night. He said two things that hit home and was mainly about the U.S but the more personal it is, the more universal it is. One was, normal is over, kaput, which is obvious. The other was peoples’ trust horizon is shrinking. That certainly seems to be quite relevant for President Putin. Whom do you trust? The people closest to you, especially when most of the world’s “leaders” and bureaucrats seem to be hovering around mediocre if not criminal.
“The hardliners in Russia..”
Thank you for your confirmation that certainty is the greatest weakness.
Are you meaning the hardliners (they have a different name in Russian) normally placed on the road edge of trottoirs – (this is the Russian name as well as the French name, like the sharing of bistro, and the sharing of entrepreneur in English and French) – in The Russian Federation for safety reasons ?
“He [Erdogan] apparently still fails to grasp that Europeans look down on Turkey as second-class citizens not worthy of being called “Europeans.”
Oh get down from that high horse.
First, I hate to break it to you, but Turks see everyone else as second-class citizens not worthy of being called “Turks”.
Secondly, they are not European in any practical sense of the word. Why stop there? Lebanese, Syrians, Palestinians, Israelis, Egyptians, all the way to Morocco would be Europeans by the same rough logic…
Thirdly, why don’t you fold them into the United States? Just make them state #53. I mean why not? Give all of them US passports and free movement in US territory.
If they are “European” they can be American as well, right?
Then you could put the money where your righteous mouth is… and they wouldn’t have to deal with us evil euros “looking down” on them.
Very interesting turn. Is Russia being played or is Russia moving the pieces? We are seeing epic history made that creates the game board of the future. More hot wars, cold war games?
One thing for certain, multi polarity is a given. Putin called that. It does not mean US
is Cameroon.
the “military summary” channel on youtube has an interesting take on erdogan`s antics: his theory is that erdogan`s release of the azov nazis was secretly negotiated with none other than president putin himself: erdogan`s “traitorous” deal would in turn allow russia a face-saving retreat from the grain deal; thereby closing off a massive arms-smuggling operation into ukraine under the “grain deal” smokescreen.
if russia formally withdraws from the grain deal anytime soon, thereby breaching a formal agreement, many of russia (and china`s) client states will no doubt be very understanding; while simultaneously boosting turkey`s standing on the international stage: a win-win situation for both russia and turkey, perhaps? we will soon know more.
I am amazed that so many commentators have shrugged their shoulders and viewed this as a “par for the course” display of Erdogan’s practice of playing both sides against each other. From the perspective of Turkey’s geopolitical interests this makes no sense. Erdogan gets nothing from breaking his word to Putin. Zelensky also paid homage to the Orthodox archbishop who endorsed the schismatic Ukrainian church which is busily ousting believers and looting Orthodox churches all over Ukraine. This is starting to look like a hard tilt to the West for nothing of real value to Turkey. I would not be surprised to see Erdogan accede to Sweden’s entry into NATO at the meeting in Vilnius.
What does Erdogan get? Obsolete F16’s? A new ally that burns the Koran? A pat on the head and lip service about future EU admission? Revenge for the cancellation of a grain deal that Russia only extended to assure Erdogan’s re-election?
Even if Putin is disposed to let this studied public insult pass, he will have less freedom of action politically when it comes to Erdogan in the future. Erdogan should ask himself about the economic value of this betrayal in a future where Russia has gained full control of Odessa and the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine. I doubt that anything Erdogan can do can avoid that now. He will have a much weaker hand in dealing with Putin and Russia it that point.
There is something behind the curtains that we don’t see, for now.
Old war horse of the Commando Ponchardier and legendary French-German war journalist Peter Scholl-Latour – specialized in middle-east affairs – already warned more than ten years ago against Erdogan to be a surreptitious and muddle-headed islamistic nationalist who is not to be trusted. He was immediatly shitstormed for his statement by western neocon politicians and media and condemned an outcast for the rest of his life.
When the Kremlin trusted Erdogan then it is really a dumbhead; but this is not the first Turkish betraya lfor Russia (Nagorno-Karabakh, shot down SU-24), therefor I cannot believe the Kremlin was such foolish.
Erdogan paid dearly for Turkey shooting down SU-24, he had to, practically, crawl on his knees to Kremlin and beg Putin to forgive, after Russia introduced import/export sanctions and cancelled tourist business between the countries. At the time, these two moves were enough to bring Turkish economy to near collapse. Erdogan felt the pain for sure as screws started to tighten.
With Nagorno-Karabakh his meddling there was quickly curtailed as Russia send peacekeepers there and practically slammed the door in his face. He achieved nothing there.
In this situation, if it is indeed has not been co-ordinated with Russia, he will feel that acute pain once again. Putin much prefer to deal with what he knows and he knows well what Erdogan is and how to handle him. He wants him to be there. Alternative is – another Cabal’s puppet, like those installed in most EU
countries. Let’s not forget also Canada, Australia, NZ and unfortunate others that ended up with those creatures brought to power, all from Schwab’s mould.
With Erdogan, Kremlin absolutely under no illusions with what they are dealing here. But Putin is well known for being a pragmatist and a formidable strategic thinker. Some people here don’t seem to understand that.
Komsomolskaya Pravda has a shocking story on how Prisoners of War are being treated by the UAF
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27526/4791195/
“Minefields are being cleared by prisoners”: A miraculously surviving Russian soldier told how the Armed Forces of Ukraine trade in the lives of soldiers
It became known how many servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine require a ransom for prisoners of war
Ukrainian nationalists estimated the ransom from captivity for Russian soldiers at 20 thousand dollars.
– The exchange option was considered only a ransom. There was no such exchange. Pay off, they say, you pay 20 thousand dollars – we let you go … The guys who were prisoners, they said that they let you go like – you pay, they take them out into the field, these commanders directly told them: “If you want, take a white flag and go to yours. If you reach, then you will reach, but if you don’t reach, then this is the fate, ” a volunteer with the call sign “Topaz” who escaped from captivity told RIA Novosti reporters.
He explains that this money did not guarantee life in any way. “Topaz” was captured and was with other prisoners of war in the unit of the Kyiv security forces from the assault battalion “Rock”, which are distinguished by their unscrupulousness.
Once upon a time, international terrorists who tried to tear the Chechen Republic from Russia almost also made money on Russian fighters. Any captured our serviceman and even a nurse were considered a potential commodity: the bandits let them contact their relatives and waited for the ransom to be brought. You saw all this in the drama “War” by Alexei Balabanov. But even the terrorists tried to keep their word.
Today, there is no need to carry currency in shorts to the mountains, Ukrainian nationalists demand that a transfer be made to a card for figureheads. Relatives are given the opportunity to hear the voice of a loved one and understand that he is very, very ill.
Our soldiers are subjected to various mockeries and moral humiliations. Sometimes they are beaten just to write down confessions to far-fetched crimes, or they are sent with a white flag to minefields. Yes, you heard right: 20 thousand dollars is just a payment for a small chance to reach your own. This is exactly how the mercenaries of the Kyiv regime have repeatedly tried to clear the approaches to our positions in the Zaporozhye direction.
And we find out about this all by accident. Only thanks to the fact that Topaz survived. Attack aircraft from the “Rock” battalion took “Topaz” with another prisoner of war on a combat mission. Our fighters had to go ahead of the sabotage group in order to clear the path from mines or take a bullet.
At night, in the sight with a thermal imager, only the outlines of a person are visible and it is difficult to distinguish a Ukrainian nationalist from our prisoner of war.
– They took us as a “human shield”. We walked ahead of their group in the same sweatpants and T-shirts. So that if mines come across, we explode on them, – recalls Topaz.
But the mines did not get on the way and the sabotage group went to our positions.
During the skirmish, three nationalists accompanying the Topaz were killed. He managed to meet the eyes of one of our soldiers, who realized that he was a prisoner of war.
– You see, I’m without body armor and weapons, – said “Topaz” to our warrior, who understood everything and immediately moved the automatic sight above his head.
This warrior helped Topaz escape: he pointed to our dugout and covered his back. The second prisoner of war that day was killed during a shootout.
How do you deNazify if your Nazis are sitting comfortably and safely in Türkiye? Why would anyone think that letting them sit in Türkiye until the conflict is over is a good idea??? Let them go back to Ukraine. Let them go back to the front. Their next ‘capture’ will not be as comfortable.
He said that he does not want to go back to the front. 🙂
I think that Erdogan is in the corner and he has being pushed to clearly show if he is a serious and reliable NATO partner. So after the puppet’s visit, in a last minute trick, he released the AZOV commanders (Bayraktars productions as you mentioned is not even a heachache for Russia) but that’s just propaganda for him and the puppet…..but…… it seems that Erdogan is ready to take further decisions in favour of NATO. 1) The Grain Deal could be carried on even without the russians by granting the security of the corridors trough Turkish Navy; 2) Russian S-400 air defense systems could be transferred to the US and so to Uckraine. These points, if fulfilled, will be very problematic and dangerous for Russia. I hope that Russians have already the solution to cope such a problem.
I have been several times in EU and I could see clearly how the Europeans hate the Turkish people. I really do not know what Erdogan are intending, but certainly is a very bad, bad move.
Money. Turkey gets money as an EU candidate member. I think there were talks on EU level about cutting this money. I don’t think he necessarily wants to join, but he wants to keep receiving that money.
When US wanted West Germany in NATO 1955 Turkey objected. The deal brokered by US was for Germany to take in Turkish Workers – male population – Germany called them “Gastarbeiter” to persuade Germans it was temporary……..then the rules were changed by Turks and they issued Family Visas instead of Male-Employee Visas – that is how Germany acquired a large permanent Turkish population as the PRICE the US imposed for NATO Membership
Now Erdogan wants something similar
In Switzerland, some raised pigs on apartment balconies. Let’s face it…
I just realized one more thing: yes, the EU despise the Turkish people. They don’t want a Muslim member country. That is why Turkey received candidate status for EU membership more than 30 years ago, but did not become a member country despite the fact that Turkey back then fulfilled all criteria for membership.
Since then, the EU accepted many members which did not fulfill the membership criteria. And there were many more countries which wanted to join but that languished as candidate countries just like Turkey did.
Now the EU is suddenly in a panic that these countries might slip away from it – Serbia, Georgia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, etc. EU suddenly wants to grab these countries before they slip away. But one country is missing in that list again: Turkey.
Erdogan is not the sort of person who will let an insult like this slip. Hence he tells Biden that Sweden will only join NATO after Turkey joins the EU. Which (under present circumstances) most likely will be never.
Absent any successes on the battlefield, Sweden’s admission to NATO was the important point for the Vilnius summit.
Erdogan just told US and EU to forget that.
I just wanted to warn that my last comment, although true, was a humorous comment and not a xenophobic one! As a rule, the first mistake in analyzing the EU here is thinking that the EU is all the same, homogeneous. Its not! And Europe has no problem with emigration. At most it has problems with waves of emigration! Like any territory. Europe today continues to need emigrants! And France, which is now burning, is one of the countries that best integrates emigration. Nothing is happening in France that I haven’t seen among Americans more than once. The kid’s murder was just the fuse of much bigger economic problems in France. The same problems that neoliberalism created in the US! Europe needs better jobs too!
Turkey will never be part of Borrell’s ‘garden’of pansies. I remember a long bygone day in Munich where I went into a Turkish cafe mid-day, sat at an empty bar and began chatting up the very sexy bartender, a raven beauty. After a bit of flirting, her eyes turned to the back room and told me ‘best you leave as they’re playing cards back there and have noticed you. It could mean trouble.’
Ah, youth – and the troubles it can bring 😉
Erdy, Vlad’s flexible `friend`. Things are not always what they seem, as I think it was, Simplicius that suggested the way was now clear for Russia to liquidate these murderous thugs.
The same cannot be said for the British former long-time chummy warriors the Gurkhas.
Yet another nail in the Brit military coffin.
https://www.financialexpress.com/business/defence-nepali-gurkhas-rush-to-join-wagner-group-amid-cit
Britain will only employ 4200 Gurkhas and India 42,000 but lots of Nepalis want work and with mobilised in Russian Military paid up to $2500/month pay is better than US Army
There are millions of Gurkhas settled in India too. All over India Nepalis work as casual security guards employed by Resident welfare Association. Their main job is to patrol the streets at night. Nepalis are allowed to enter and work in India in private jobs.
The main attraction is they are relatively honest and work for cheap and are willing to live alone without family and work in night.
The former Kingdom of Gorkha had a close military relationship with the United Kingdom for many years.
A poor mountainous nation famed for the integrity and toughness of its menfolk, who the British eagerly sought as enlistees in its army.
Such is the degradation of all things British, the Pious, loyalty-motivated Russian Federation will surely attract these fearless young men in droves.
The fable I remember of the Gurkha was any adversary should be aware that if he drew his Kukri blade he had to use it!
Gurkhas indeed have a reputation. I’ve heard that, when they draw Kukri to show it to someone, they cut themselves a bit before putting it back. A blade has to draw blood.
Ditching The Rotten Empire, and joining Russian Federation would be a smart thing for them to do.
Erdoğan is smart. His pandering of Biden and his pro Ukraine gestures are gimmicks to set the path where he wants Türkiye to be in the future.
He plays neutral just to be able to take a leading role in the ukraine-usa-Russia negotiation that he sees coming before very soon .Despite NATO promises and noises , he sees Ukraine as losing at a high speed against Russia.
That is a very clever move and despite public outrage in Russia, it is clear for him that Putin understands it’s purpose and was informed ahead of time.
Erdoğan may be wrong in his estimation of the situation on the field but I tend to agree with him. Ukraine is cornered and failing to get the chapter 5 of NATO applied, Zelinkski will seek Erdoğan help to lure Putin to the negotiating table. Erdoğan is the only leader that both trust.
“ukraine-usa-Russia negotiation”
That will never happen. Do you really believe VVP will sit down with the Great Satan. Russia does not give a fuck what the US wants now.
There will be no negotiation, instead Russia will table it’s demands and if not met the pain dial will be turned up more. Rinse and repeat.
Erdogan surprised and disappointed me greatly. What an asshole!
Every International Relations student was taught the axiom by Lord Palmerston: ‘In international relations, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests’.
Since Erdogan was elected to protect Turkey’s national interests as he sees fit, there can be no question of betrayal.
For all my love and admiration for V Putin, I am not so naive to even think that he is fighting for anything but Russia’s national interests.
That his actions and policies benefit the rest of the world is tangential!
Diplomacy and international relations are not the domain of moralists or ethicists.
Of course, timing is everything, so Erdogan’s actions can be explained in the context of the EU and NATO agendas. But Russia will not forget the back-stab. Putin is a patient and forgining person, but let’ hope this isn’t one of those times. Erdogan’s priorities are clear: first, himself and his family; second, NATO and the EU; last, Turkiye.
It’s hard to believe Turkey wants to join the EU now.
With Germany de-industrialising, the already basket case is headed for long term decline. Turkey would be a good candidate for BRICS and the SCO I would think.
I suspect Erdogan is playing everyone off against each other, but I also suspect he’s keeping Putin informed, and that all is not what it seems.
Free Movement would allow Turkey to seed every country in Europe will his people
They’re already there … in force.
I guess The Company promised they wouldn’t try again to Colour Revolution Erdogan’s behind, since that is one of the few conceivable reasons he would turn his back on the people who saved him from the last attempt.
I would guess the main issue is that Turkey’s economy is going down the toilet. I’m sure the US will have had a word in his ear to explain how they could make his problems much worse or better depending on how cooperative he is. Ultimately as long as the dollar is king of the currency hill the US can bring a lot of pressure to bear on the economies of uncooperative states and most of them would have a hard time resisting that pressure.
” What?!! Turkey is eager to join the collapsing European Union? Is Erdogan really this stupid? ”
Is it really that eager? I wonder.
Last I heard Erdogan has made Turkey’s EU membership a prerequisite for Sweden joining NATO. So, does he actually want to join the EU, and asks Biden to facilitate this – or did he tell Biden that Sweden will join NATO when hell freezes over?
As for the planned drone factory. What did the Russians say about similar planned German projects in Ukraine? That applies to this project as well.
Its impossible for an economy the size of Türkiye to enter the EU! It was the end of the EU. And the same for the UA, because even without an economy it is a huge country. I will not now write why! And Turkey has always known this! And today even within the AK Party they know that Turkey has to turn to the East. And it will spin. In the right time! In SCO and BRICS, Turkey is not the only big shark!
Türkiye wanted to enter the EU back then – and if its size was an issue, it was the issue that Germany and France didn’t want such a big competitor inside the EU.
And Türkiye didn’t know that back then. They found out the hard way – and by now I think they are quite happy with the turn of events. Which doesn’t mean they won’t collect the money awarded to EU candidate states.
P.S. If you don’t want to discuss this, why reply to my post at all?
Sorry Martina for the misunderstanding. We already discussed. I just meant that the economic explanation is too long. And it’s the same for Ukraine. As Martina says, commercial accords at most.
The Erdogan/Zelensky/Putin Deal:
“Dima” of the Military Summary Channel suggests that Zelensky gains more influence for his NATO bid, Erdogan appears loyal to NATO in attempt to gain benefits, and Putin is provided with an excuse to break the grain deal. In sum, a win for Putin. –Bob
It is not betrayal per se as he was not loyal to begin with. Remember that he was/is the primary partner of the US during Syrian debacle and he kept selling military hardware to Ukraine
The trouble forh him is Turkish economy is at the edge of a cliff and the money he hopes to get is on his western handlers.
He is a western puppet who thinks more of himself and reality was to set in sooner or later. Turkish elite as well as Turkish military is also pro NATO, he cannot do anything anymore
I will go with the view that erdoggie released the nazis with Moscow’s tacit blessing, at a minimum.
More is dripping out about the “coup” by Priggy and his Wagner boys…………
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-held-3-hour-meeting-wagner-chief-days-after-revolt
We will learn much more in time of this extremely complex PsyOp that the Russians pulled off against the CIA, and the west at large. With erdoggie’s release of the nazis I suspect that the PsyOp is ongoing.
The aircraft normally associated with Priggy is an Embraier Legecy 600 with tail number RA-02795. Although tracking aircraft throughout Russia is difficult at best, it is recorded with most of the aircraft tracking sites. here is Flightaware’s page for RA-02795……..
“I will go with the view that erdoggie released the nazis with Moscow’s tacit blessing, at a minimum.”
So will I. He may be slippery, but Erdogan is no fool. He’s as good a student of the calculus of power as they come, and both their release and his demand that Turkey’s bid to join the EU be seriously considered look as contrived as Prigozhin’s “mutiny”. Things aren’t adding up, and the few dots we see are too shiny to be taken at face value, and in any case too few to get an outline.
Much has changed in UA since they were incarcerated, including power relationships within and between the various Nazi groupings, and their relationships with the regime. The fact that both regime and the AFU are now in very dire straits exacerbates all that. Sacrifices have been made, tensions are high and they may well be unwelcome after their obviously well fed and watered vacation in Turkey. A lack of welcome from the current command and loyalty structures, if such there be is bound to get disruptive.
I’d even go a bit further to consider the idea that these guys may have been turned. It’s been 14 mos since their capture. Plenty of time to work on them, and we’ve no idea who’s “care” they were in in Turkey.
I had the thought that only if Erdogan “chipped” (under the skin) the Azov Nazis at some point before he handed them over, so their location could be known at all times, would this serve anything well.
Does that tech even exist ? Not sure. We’re getting there though.
Under-the-skin chips can only be read from up-close. For range, you need an antenna and a big battery.
Well, well, well.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-west-can-secure-ukraines-future
by Eric Ciaramella
Anyone remember him?
Here he has an article titled
“How the West Can Secure Ukraine’s Future
Kyiv Needs a Binding Commitment Before NATO Membership”
For info about Ciamarella, see
https://www.conservapedia.com/Eric_Ciaramella
Culturally, the EU and Turkey are incompatible, so why would Turkey join an organization that has contempt for it, and with the problems it is having with Hungary & Poland, why would the EU let in another troublemaker?
Is Turkey leveraging EU membership to get a good deal from joining BRICS?
Of all the crazy political moves going on over this Uk/RF SMO this makes absolutely no sense to me based on Erdogan’s previous actions. The NATO/EU leaders are irrational and pushed by the UK and US to try to preserve their dominance but Erdogan has great power and his goals are clearly to position Turkey as a power in the Islamic world. Putin’s moves since 2012 clearly are more in alignment with that than the US/NATO actions.
Good read on Erdogan, but I am surprised at the naivety in the expressed belief that EU supposedly has some sovereignty in decision making as to if and when a country can or cannot join. EU is an American project from the start, and a tool of control.
Turkey needs breathing-room within NATO and Russia is giving it to them. A half-dozen Azov guys released for a photo-op and some vague comments about NATO and drones continue to give Erdogan street-cred within NATO and Europe. That’s fine by Putin.
Dear Larry,
Sir,
Last night we went to see the last and definitive “Indiana Jones”… I recommend it as a funny current thing compared to our Western reality.
So ridiculous, absurd, badly written and worse edited that even the serious, tragic or sentimental moments seem like a bad cartoon, comic strip from our daily news…
The producer – of course – lacked Prigozhin, Zelensky, Erdogan, and especially all kind of viewers !
Most of our commentators now resemble those generals, and colonels that appear on CNN, NBC and even on Youtube.
But tragically the hundreds of young Ukrainian soldiers uselessly killed at the Azov bunker site are now only a bloody memory !!
Our absurd, serious reaction to Hon. Erdogan’s ‘news video’ is only elemental.
We only need to accept that Prigozhin, Erdogan or perhaps Putin are in control because they have found the ‘Archimedes Time Machine’…!
Because that is the level we have reached – unfortunately – in our sermonize rhetorician analyses…
Erdogan heard of a Ukraine EU fast-track – Turkiye waited 22 years.
Now everyone know NATO is to be replaced by an EU Army – factions, factions.
Which means Biden et. al say its a Yurp problem send the bill to Berlin.
No NATO for Ukraine, but that instead.
What is Turkiye to do?
We have seen nothin’ yet!
Turkiye just made a Swedish NATO accession conditional on EU for Turkiye.
This will be a huge villainous Vilnius talking or shouting point.
The link is the so-called EU army, that even Britain has nurtured – see ukcolumn for many months, despite Brexit.
Its pretty obvious Erdogan and Turkey will not get a table at The European Country Club. I don’t know why he would throw sand in the face of Putin and Russia given the breakout and expansion of SCO-Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the demise of America in the Middle East. Larry is spot-on with his assessment at Turkey’s prospects in Europe, or rather the contempt Europeans, especially Germans have for “Kanacke.” If Turkey gains admission to The EU, they will be second class and no enjoy full benefits. The next round of human rights sanctions and press freedom complaints are right around the corner. A cognizant Erdogan would know this. Turkey will have to backtrack on supporting Ukraine membership to NATO and mend relations with Russia. China is the major influence in that region now. About Larry’s interview with Judge Nap earlier today. I think the level of Russophobia has reached such sickening proportions that Lindsey Graham, Kirby, and D.C. really look forward to ethnic Russian kids(i.e. Orcs and Untermenschen) picking up shiny unexploded bombets and remaining so until they can show them to mommy and daddy. They are disappointed that their ploy to contaminate the most fertile soil in the world with Uranium residue from depleted Uranium 120 mm tank shells didn’t come to fruition.
Another way to read this is analogous to the idea of a lawyer in court never asking a question they don’t already know the answer to.
On Ukraine NATO membership… Germany and the US (and a couple others I believe) are already on record saying, “Not now”. Ukraine is not getting in right now, Turkey knows it. So what does Turkey really lose by throwing Ukraine a publicity bone? Ahead of the NATO summit, this allows them to play the “We’re doing our part” card.
On drone production… Of course Turkey knows that Russia won’t allow Ukraine to produce any drones. They also know that Uncle Sam is footing the bill for everything that Ukraine does, so there is money to be made by humoring Ukraine at the US expense. As before, good publicity in the NATO crowd ahead of the summit.
On the AZOV prisoners… Russia has already stated that the grain deal ends next week. This is a signature international diplomatic accomplishment for Erdogan. I think he’s probably annoyed, believes the Russians mean it this time, and this is his way of expressing his annoyance. Again, decisions already known, so why not get some additional NATO/Ukraine good will. Moreover, like the drone factories, the lifespan for these guys may not be too good if they end up back on the front lines.
Overall, it looks like Turkey is simply evaluating the realities of the situation and taking short-term advantage ahead of the NATO summit. Their bet is probably that there will be little in the way of long-term fallout with Russia because the Russians need/want the economic ties with Turkey, and want to keep Turkey from fully joining the West. It seems like a reasonable bet. So, while Putin will probably be personally annoyed, it doesn’t seem like Russia is likely to do much more than what they were going to do already, which is cancel the grain deal. Maybe Putin cancels or delays a visit between the two leaders or something like that as well. It’s hard to see more than that in terms of fallout.
This allows Erdogan to continue to play both sides for the time being. In the long term, it shows everybody that he seems to be unreliable and untrustworthy. So, long term, maybe not a great idea, but short term, probably not particularly risky. You get to choose how you play the cards you’re dealt.
In a multi polar world, business might be done tit for tat in seeking a resolution, i.e. all interested parties might have a say as they see fit, e.g Upset regarding Syria, then favor Ukraine; until scales rebalanced. The US only knows “unconditionally, our way.”
Having waded through the comments, I note that the opinions are based on last night’s events.
Erdogan has gone much further today.
1. He says the Turkish navy will escort Ukrainian grain ships from Odessa in the Black Sea, after the current grain deal ends July 17.
2. He says he will send an S400 AD system purchased from Russia to the USA for them to study.
3. Erdogan has agreed to allow Sweden to join NATO.
Speculation in Russia is that Russian bombing of anti-Kurd fighters in Syria several weeks ago is behind Erdogan’s change from neutrality.
https://avia-pro.net/news/osvobozhdenie-komandirov-azova-mozhet-byt-svyazan-os-udarami-po-protureckim-boevikam-v-sirii
Don’t worry, the post is in English, sort of.
Putin is cancelling his trip to Turkey. Recall that the brand new Rosatom nuclear power plant in Turkey is, or more likely “was”, about to go on line.
3.
Russia has an easy way to block Ukraine’s exports through the Black Sea. Just bomb the port facilities or the rail lines which feed into the port – at night when the civilians aren’t around to die. The Russians have already done that.
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Turkish warships can’t enter Ukrainian waters. That would be the same as the Polish army going over the border. Russia would have an hour to bomb every cargo ship going out into international waters. That would be an easy task, but the optics are bad, the alternatives are easier, so it won’t happen.
The CNN report on the repatriated Azov Regiment soldiers failed to mention that the Azov Regiment is a neo-Nazi organization. Whitewashing in action.
This is a middle finger to Sweden. Those that defer to Mohammedanism get nice things, like a thumbs up on joining NATO.
Well, this is interesting. Erdogan flips. Sweden in. S400 to the US. And they will escort grain ships from Odessa.
Sweden, who cares. The S400 is a problem. And another mistake by Putin giving that to the Turks. The grain ships? How do you escort them when the loading docks are smoking mass of molten metal?
I have mentioned this before. The Putin slow play is masterful. But the longer you give someone, the more chance they have to fuck you up. Putin will slow play this until it gets even nastier.
Will Putin show he is in the possession of a set of testicles? He needs to immediately cancel the gas hub deal with Turkey. That reactor they are building needs to get terminally shut down. And the docks at Odessa need to be burning. Now.
Or. Will he have a meeting.
Probably Turkiye got very stripped-down S400’s. I don’t think Russia ever made the mistake of trusting Erdogan. It would be so easy for the CIA to get their hands on an actual S400. But the Russians planned for an “export version” which is also offered to other nations, too. I’m sure when the Turks flip the right switches, these S400’s make beautiful smoky arcs in the sky, and even hit any target drone not protected by EW. But beyond that … I doubt it.
Turkey gets export version of stuff, just like everyone else.
I remember when Russians sent S-300 to Syria in a hurry, after the incident with Israel that resulted in downing a a Russian plane. They have sent one from their own stock, and experts to downgrade it to export version on the spot.
USA got their hands on S-300 long time ago. It didn’t help them much. S-300 is still a formidable system. Patriot, no so much.
Anyone thinking that Russians would trust Turks should count the number of wars they fought, and compare it to number of wars Russians fought against others.
Maybe the tell about this situation between Russia & Turkey, whether its a nothingburger of Erdogan’s typical maneuvering, something agreed upon for another reason (grain deal, etc) or a real betrayal will be what happens in Syria. The Russians and the SAA have been going in hard around Idlib where Turkey’s pet terrorists are mostly located. If the destruction continues…maybe that means the Russians give no more F’s about Turkish interests (or Turkey/Erdogan) in Syria & are out of patience for a diplomatic solution. Assad refuses to meet Erdogan until Turkish forces leave Syria. The Russians aren’t cutting the US any breaks in Syria, either & the US is once again bellowing over its Reapers being harassed & the Russians violating non-existent “US airspace”. I’ve always viewed what is going on in the middle east and Africa between the US, Russians and assorted players like the Turks as connected to the Ukraine conflict; none of these things exist in a vacuum.
All these wars are connected. Tunnel vision is way to common on the Internets.
“Tunnel vision is way to{o} common on the Internets.”
You are mistaken and possibly overcome by fumes and smoke.
That is an indication of level of achievement of purpose whilst you may harbour the illusion that the purpose is synonymous with “your purpose”.
Perhaps a whiff of oxygen will help?
Ghost of Mozgovoy will help.
“Ghost of Mozgovoy will help.”
Perhaps, but then due to risks of explosions may have second thoughts before acting, since acting is not conflated/restricted with/to thoughts for everyone.
Enjoy your journey.
Erdogan. What a sleaze. I was stationed in Germany for a while in the Army. We used to be able to hop planes easy into Incirlik. I was doing some import/export to supplement my military pay and the air crews were always amenable for a taste.
But I learned then. Never trust a fucking Turk. Actually, never trust anyone. But especially Turks. Never had any troubles on the Kraut side. This is a test of Putin. Time to put up or be a bitch.
Erdogan, that s-o-b, today approved Sweden’s Nato membership, and Sweden must now accept to working close with the Turkish security police, and catch every Kurdish refugee in Sweden, reminding of when Sweden cooperated with “that man” in Berlin, 1933-1945, and deported Jews and German Social democrats without mercy, and delivered iron ore, as much, there wasn’t November 1944, more space left in the German harbours.
The iron ore, was used for 50 % of the German hardware/arms for their 1942-1944 offensives. So two big “neutral” crooks have find each other. And what about the Kurds´s YPG in Syria ?
Erdogan’s betrayal will open many Pandora’s boxes.
1. Russia will block Ukraine’s exports through the Black Sea. As long as Turkiye honors the 1936 Montreaux Convention, Russia will be able to continue commercial shipping through the Dardanelles Straits. But what if Erdogan abrogates the treaty ? How would Russia respond ? Is the INSTC, the International North-South Transportation Corridor, a feasible alternative to carry the huge quantity of bulk exports that have been going through the Dardanelles ? Is the INSTC already being pushed to proactively preempt any abrogation of Montreaux ?
2. We are not even halfway into the summer, when tons of Russian tourists flood into Turkiye. Turkiye needs those rubles, but what if Russia sort of turns off the tourism tap in the coming weeks, as it did in the past for other reasons ?
3. Turkiye’s economy is in very desperate straights, and has been for the last few years.
Turkiye had an important industrial base in the early 1970’s before US-controlled politicians de-industrialized the country with neoliberalism. AFAIK, Erdogan never rebuilt Turkish industry and was content to bring in Saudi and Gulf investment for real estate projects which were only a one-time boost, a bubble which collapsed years ago. So my question is, “How could Erdogan’s betrayal of Russia and its allies, possibly help fix their broken economy ?” We have not yet heard anything about big aid from the West to Turkiye, but maybe that will be Erdogan’s price. I kinda doubt the West can or will pay it, and the double-crosser should consider that he, too, could get played.
4. Erdogan owes his life to the Russians, warning him of the 2016 US-led coup. He must think Russia will do nothing because the alternative to the Sultan is the CIA”s Gulenist movement. I wonder if thee calculations will stand the test of time.
5. This will have ramifications in Syria, as another commentator noted here. Moscow may stop playing footsies, and could help push the Turkish army out of Syria east of the Euphrates, and could help the Syrian Arab Army to put more pressure on ISIS in Idlib, Russia probably has more creative options there, too. I hope the illegal US military bases like the Conoco Oil Field and at-Tanf will finally get challenged, either at the UN or on the battlefield. The Syrian army has the perfect right to kick the foreign military out, and if Russia wre to provide support in the same way and at a similar level to how the West is currently helping the Ukro-Nazis, then the US could only splutter and get out. It’s also time for the US to heed the Iraqi Parliament’s demand from right after the murder of Iranian General Suleiman, and leave Iraq, including Kurdistan.
I never considered Erdogan as stupid, but he has a limited understanding like any mid-level politician. But I don’t see rationality to his actions today.
Shooting down Russian plane a while ago opened a Pandora’s box too. Turkey looked tough, and the whole Internet was shouting about Putin being soft/weak/etc. It turned out they were wrong. People have short memory.
How will Erdogan’s BRICS neighbor’s view this move?
Nobody will want to stand beside him I’m certain.
Look at this BRICS image from
(just can’t get to the picture I just downloaded) the meeting in South Africa. He’s standing beside Modi and some African leader I think. Putin is beside Modi, the South-African leader and Xi. And I think Erdogan is involded (wants to be a member)in the SCO…wow! ) Will he be the instability agent in that part of Eurasia?
About a month ago I discovered the TRT site (Turkey’s version of the BBC – State News). I was shocked to discover that it was solidly behind Ukraine (it had an article suggesting Russia blew up the Nordstream). It also tows a pan EU Macron like WEF view on things. This greatly surprised me when I first visited it.
I wonder if the pro-russian sites I discovered after the SMO started like Christoferou — The New Atlas — Duran — This One. Had it wrong all along on Erdogan looking at him like a glass 3/4s full. Seeing him in a far better light than deserved.
Putin has to bite the bullet and accept a few casaulties in an offensive or he will lose it all.
It would also help enormously if he would allow his troops an occasional amphetamine during stressful duty. That may lose him the war. The US used 200 million doses in VIetnam and of course Eisenhower famously demanded it in North Africa. The Ukrainians use it too much but it explains how tough they are to root out of places — It makes each of their soldiers like 4 normal tired ones. Detox problems can happen after the victory. I think Wagoner did allow it their are reports of them digging trenches like machines non stop for hours.
Is it time for Putin to shut off or drastically slow down the Turkstream pipeline for a bit? Maybe it will develop a “technical issue” with the Siemens turbines or something. And I thought Turkey was planning on laundering gas through Turkey for all those European customers sanctioning Russia? So they can pretend their gas somehow is not Russian. That pipe runs through a mid-South area of the Black Sea totally under Russian naval control. Now the US has to go blow up that pipeline? Why does Turkey get to keep their pipeline but not Germany. I’m confused.
Erdogan is trying to be a modern day Tito. Very interesting. I don’t think he has Tito‘s brains but he does have a Strategic Land mass
I see 2 things constantly.
1. anyone being president/PM is a dictator in american eyes; nevermind their congressmen seem to be elected for life.
Erdogan this Putin that.
2.Countries don’t have multiple conflicting interests of their own.
They should either be a great power with a plan easily understood by anyone.
Or be a total vassal to such a greatpower.
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Must be a disease due to watching too much Hollywood or Bollywood movies.
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Anyway it is nice to see the implementation of the arrangement whereby Syria takes back its land. Turkey (not Erdogan) does its part, which is to huff and puff.
Turkey is the single most Strategic Nation involved in this conflict between East and West. I truly believe it will be one of the First Strategically targeted by Russia with nuclear annihilation I don’t think Russia would waste
Any effort conventionally.
Immediate and total destruction of the Turks.
Just wanted to chime in with my own $0.02, there were many rumors of not just top officers but even NATO generals caught up in the mess in Mariupol last year. Gonzalo Lira even did an excellent video that included that topic, called ‘Vanished: is there a Nato General in Mariupol?’ (to this day an excellent watch)
Here’s Reuters among others commenting on the rumors:
https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-cloutier-captured/fact-check-nato-chief-cloutier-not-captured-in-ukraine-idUSL2N2W914L
The famous pranksters Vovan and Lexus called up Sir Henry Kissinger, posing as Zelensky with questions!
https://rutube.ru/video/0daf7989c17fbde5a14dfaa0526111bb/
English with Russian dubbing.
Sir Henry Kissinger, Honorary Knight Commander in the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George (KCMG), said he thought Ukraine blew up NordStream !!!
Has Sir Henry ever heard of Sy Hersh!
> Turkey is eager to join the collapsing European Union?
Well, yes.
Why not? If EU indeed collapses totally – he would not loose much, but if EU somehow survives in any quality, then Turkey stands to became first-rank member like Germany-France-Poland were, or even “first among equal” there, as Germany loosing her economic might, Poland is loosing her “conductor of American power” might, and France goes from riot to riot.
This one seems actually like now or never.
Would Turkey manage to reposition itself as a new logistics hub between Europe and Russia instead of self-deleted Ukraine and Germany, they can win big.
Perhaps Erdoğan calculated that there was little materiel in his latest actions, mostly hot air, and thinks he would compensate to Russia later after stabilizing his EU inroads (if any would come).
He also might be angry of RuArmy alleged activation in Syria.
He also can be desperate to boost his economy, as global crysis kills tourism (not that being sandwiched between Syrian and Ukrainian wars help Turkish case here anyway), the earthquake devastation had to be rebuilt, and Russia is opening up to Asia (cheap jeans source used to be Turkey, for example, but last years that would more probably be Bangladesh. Syria is said to have textile traditions, dunno about Iran). So perhaps Erdo hopes to take part of EU markets that dying industries of Germany and France would abandon
Turkey will never enter the EU. Same to UA in EU and NATO. And I think it’s funny that after a war that was also provoked to cut the supply of Russian gas from Europe, now a Turkish hub with Russian energy is coming in?! Even the idea of deposing Assad is associated with the passage of a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe through Sirya. To cut off Moscow’s influence on Berlin.
Bravo to Erdoğan. Why? Russia betrayed the Armenians and the Greeks to make nice to the Turks and now Turks betray them. Russian betrayal was done by somebody who was playing the Knight of Christendom with a Byzantine Banner called Putin. Time will come Turkey will even push Muslims and Turkics against Russia. They are just waiting for the right moment Have no illusion Russia will sink like the Soviet Union. Russians are shortsighted people with an archaic system and they betray their vital allies and always keep them weaker than ever. Russians can never advance to far.
Then you are lucky not to be Russian. You have a great life in front of you, while they have only misery. You should be happy, and not salty.
Is it possible that Putin was involved in this decision? For one, he gets an excuse to back out of the grain deal, which further opens up the Black Sea for the Russian Navy and a potential assault on Odessa. 2nd, having well known “Nazi” Azov commanders returned to Ukraine and the war helps Russia justify an intensification and more aggressive assault, along with another example of the west not honoring a deal. I think Erdogan knows they will not be admitted into the EU and maybe wants his people to see that for themselves, which would justify a closer connection with Russia.
It’s also very possible that Erdogan is a fool, and has made a huge mistake in double crossing Russia. Will be interesting to see what happens between Turkiye and Russia moving forward.