Let me give you a scenario. The United States military occupies Iraq and is trying to quash an Islamic insurgency. We then discover that Iran is providing weapons, vehicles and explosives to those Islamic rebels. Do you think the United States would see that as a casus belli to retaliate against Iran? You bet your ass Washington saw this as an act of war against the United States. The George W. Bush administration started providing funding and support to a terrorist groups in Iran, the MEK, and stepped up its denunciation of Iran as a terrorist state.
So why in the world of the sane does the United States and NATO think that they can send advanced weapons to Ukraine for the purpose of killing Russians. If we use the principle the U.S. followed in Iraq, Russia is fully entitled to treat the U.S. and NATO as supporters of terrorism. This is the principle of “What is good for the goose is good for the gander.”
Today’s media events, with the U.S. and Germany announcing they were going to send tanks — the M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 respectively — to Ukraine. But those tanks will not arrive any time soon. The Germans might be able to deliver the Leopard 2s to Kiev by the end of March, but that does not mean they are ready for the battlefield. The U.S. Army requires a prospective crew member of a tank to undergo 22 weeks of training (that is five and one-half months). Even with that training under one’s belt, the new tank crew needs at least two more months of unit training to learn how to fight with the tank in a company (there are 14 tanks in a U.S. Army company) and in a battalion (there are 3 tank companies in a battalion).
There is no place in Ukraine where the tank training can be done that is beyond the reach of Russia’s missiles. That means the Ukrainian soldiers who will be trained to operate these tanks will be away from Ukraine for at least six months, if not longer. Today’s announcement means that the M1 Abrams and Leopard 2s cannot be used in combat in Ukraine before next September unless they are being staffed by trained NATO soldiers.
Joe Biden insists that this is purely a gesture to help Ukraine defend itself and that it is not a threat to Russia. What delusional nonsense!! Tell that to a Russian soldier or tanker facing off against a NATO supplied tank with a NATO tank team inside.
Apparently the Germans did not get the word that this is not a threat to Russia. Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, said that Europe is at war with Russia:
“But the most important thing is that we do not play the blame game [in Europe] because we are fighting a war against Russia, and not against each other.”
https://t.me/sonar_21/395
Baerbock’s declaration that “we are fighting a war against Russia,” gives Moscow the legal justification under international law to attack the tank training bases in Poland, Germany and the United States. I do not believe that Russia is going to do anything rash. They have time to plan and weigh options.
What is truly astonishing is that the United States and its NATO allies are talking so openly about what they are doing. Normally, a country contemplating war or escalating a war will hide what they are doing until an attack or a campaign is launched. Ditto for deception and feints. The NATO crowd eschews those principles and is more focused on playing the public relations game — e.g., pretend you are doing something meaningful that can change the strategic picture on the ground for Ukraine. If Las Vegas or the bookies in London are looking for a new bet to attract gamblers they might want to offer a chance to wager how long a M1 Abrams or Leopard 2 will survive on the ground in Ukraine. I will put my money on two days. What do you think?
If we continue on this trajectory the moment will arrive when Russia decides to close its diplomatic missions in the United States and Europe. If that happens, the shooting war in Ukraine will expand to other countries. A horrible prospect.
Brian Berletic provides an excellent discussion of this issue:
One final important point. The United States no longer has the ability to produce more M1 Abrams tanks in any meaningful quantity:
The U.S. Army planned to end production at the Lima Army Tank Plant from 2013 to 2016 in an effort to save over $1 billion; it would be restarted in 2017 to upgrade existing tanks. General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS), which operates the factory, opposed the move, arguing that suspension of operations would increase long-term costs and reduce flexibility.[61][62] Specifically, GDLS estimated that closing the plant would cost $380 million and restarting production would cost $1.3 billion.[63]. . . .
In late 2016, tank production and refurbishment had fallen to a rate of one per month with fewer than 100 workers on site. In 2017, the Trump administration ordered military production to increase, including Abrams production and employment. In 2018, it was reported that the Army had ordered 135 tanks re-built to new standards, with employment at over 500 workers and expected to rise to 1,000.[66]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams
This continuation of arms from the US and Europe will lead to the Germans and the Europeans staring down the barrels of Russian Guns on their soil once again.
“… staring down the barrels of Russian Guns on their soil once again.”
I don’t think the Russian Federation has even the slightest desire of attacking and occupying any European countries. However, it has been their policy for many decades, long predating the instantiation of the Russian Federation, rooted in the devastation that their land and people suffered during both world wars, that if a war is inevitable, it should be fought on the aggressor’s soil. However, I don’t think they will advance farther than they have to in order to ensure that foreign forces are engaged on foreign territory.
If it comes to open war, it’s going to suck to be emotionally incontinent Poland. The other belligerents will see their industrial infrastructure utterly pummeled into ruin with long range PGM’s (1), but Poland will suffer that and be the focal battleground drawing in all extant ‘coalition of the suckers’ forces for complete destruction. Non-belligerents like Hungary (2) will be sitting intact on the sidelines.
People are incapable of letting go of ethnic hatreds. It’s a lesson for us all: nation states (one ethnonation in one state) is optimal, and stringent respect for federalism where ethnostates are not possible. We in the West won’t learn the lesson, of course, because we are ruled over by vapid merchants (3) who love money more than they love building and maintaining civilization.
The root fault of the this war lies with the globalists infesting the US State Department who destroyed Ukrainian federalism with the coup of 2014. Nuland and the luminaries and leaders of the larger globalist movement that installed her at USSD need to be tried before a war crimes tribunal when this conflict finally ends.
(1) Putin and Lavrov have tried to warn them, but arrogant trash clowns exemplified by Baerbock simply don’t understand systems. (“I’m virtuous and special so no matter how ill-behaved I am, bad things simply can’t happen to MEEEE!” <– going to learn the hard way about the 'reality' thing)
(2) Hungary appears to be have recently coup-proofed its military by dismissing any senior officers who might be more loyal to globalist NATO than to the Hungarian people. It's too bad Pres. Trump could not have done the same for us, but if he had the rot is so far advanced that there wouldn't have been any senior officers left.
(3) “Ruin comes when the trader, lifted up by wealth, becomes ruler.” Plato, 367 BC
"Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains." Thomas Jefferson
Thanks for these great quotations Mr @ horace and for sharing your thoughts.
– However that “one ethnonation in one state is optimal” (Woodrow Wilson doctrine) can certainly be disputed.
-The present NATO posture in Eastern Europe is a potential threat for any who don’t go along, say Hungary or Serbia. To have rabid neighbors is uncomfortable and can become dangerous.
Hopefully, Hungary for one is able to rearm herself if the need arises to do so.
“Hopefully, Hungary will be able to arm itself again if necessary ”
Well, the Orbán government, which we hungarian patriots support so much, is doing exactly this, if I remember correctly, they are already starting to build the sixth arms factory, we are jointly producing:
– In City Kiskunfélegyháza, with the Czech arms factory CZ, its well-known handguns are CZ-Bren machine pistols CZ-Scorpion EVO and handguns i.e. pistols CZ-P9.
In the meantime, CZ bought the American company Colt and its weapons are also manufactured here!
The Bavarian Unique Alpine AG-TPG-3 A4 type sniper weapon and some models of the Belgian FN Herstal are produced in the same place !
Germany’s Rheinmetall will produce weapons and ammunition in four locations as part of a joint venture:
– City Zalaegerszeg – Lynx infantry fighting vehicle manufacturing plant
– City Várpalota – two military industrial plants will be established here. One plant is connected to Rheinmetall Hungary Zrt.
This will be a military munitions manufacturing plant, which will produce ammunition for almost all domestic combat vehicles and tanks,
thus serving domestic needs, and since Hungarian needs are already fully NATO compatible, it will also be able to produce for export. They are expected to produce 30 mm ammunition for Lynx combat vehicles, 120 mm ammunition for Leopard 2 tanks, and 155 mm ammunition for Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled guns.
In addition, Hungarian-owned Hirtenberger Defense Systems will also establish a plant in Várpalota. Hirtenberger was originally an Austrian mine-laying factory, which he bought, a company established by the Hungarian state for this purpose. The original production center of the internationally recognized mortar factory is located in Wien-Neustadt, Austria.
– City Nyírtelek – radar manufacturing plant
Rheinmetall Hungary Zrt. will establish a radar production plant at the site of HM Arzenál, where, in cooperation with Carphatia Sat Zrt., the ELM-2084 radars of Rheinmetall Canada and the Israeli company IAI ELTA will be manufactured and maintained in the future.
– City Kaposvár – Gidrán 4X4 MRAPs manufacturing plant
At the Kaposvár military plant, Rheinmetall Hungary will manufacture an extremely advanced MRAP-armored vehicle, the Gidrán 4X4 (known as Ejder Yalcin in Turkish) under the license of a Turkish partner, Nurol Makina.
The first plant hall has already been handed over.
” Si vis pacem, para bellum ! “
In other words, in spite of all its rhetoric Hungary is committed to being a NATO vassal.
I have a CZ-97 pistol (.45 acp). Superior side arm. My favorite. CZ really is an excellent arms manufacturer. All top notch.
Yes, a very fine firearm.
I am an ex-pat American living in Hungary since 2009. While Hungary does have an excellent industrial capacity and hasn’t lost its trained workforce the military itself is another matter entirely. Hungary, willingly sold all its Soviet tanks and APCs to the Czech Republic back in 2014 as “scrap” and all of it ended up in Ukraine, most were destroyed, but some ended up with the LDPR forces who captured and/or repaired them. It would be interesting to see if any are still operational.
In 2010 Hungary adopted an idiotic change to its retirement system and changed the retirement age for the military to age 62. Many excellent officers were retirement eligible but would have continued to serve and opted to get out prior to the Jan 1 deadline. The result (as happened in 1992) was a sudden loss of the best soldiers and a serious promotion problem as no one could get promoted unless the ones above retired. Imagine a 62-year-old Captain or Sergeant. This kind of fiscal thinking at the cost of its military capability is typical shortsighted thinking common in most leaders in most countries today.
Now (literally) the new Minister of Defense is eliminating all military that served with NATO, a so-called DeNatofication of Hungary. This is sending a message to NATO but also to the soldiers as well. I can imagine the morale issues that will arise due to these kinds of snap decisions. Hungary, like all western countries, is having a serious problem with recruitment. However, an adventure into Transcarpathia will pluck the heartstrings of most Hungarians so we may see an increase ala 9/11 in the US. However, it takes time to build up a capable force, even to try and go and protect Hungarians in Ukraine from ultimate death which is an immediate problem not something 6 months away. We will see what Orban does but sadly I doubt it will be anything realistic.
Most Americans are unaware of the minority laws passed in Ukraine that affect all minorities, not just ethnic Russians. It has been most aggressive against the Russians but now it has turned to the Hugarains equally and I recall a minister recently swore to have all ethnic Hungarians down to the last woman and child killed. Of course, this is never reported in the west MSM.
I agree. It seems to me that Ukraine sealed its own fate when it turned away from the Soviet/Russian multiethnic federal model to become a unitary ethnostate.
It seems to me that Ukraine sealed its own fate when it turned away from the Soviet/Russian multiethnic federal model to become a unitary ethnostate.
Russian federal model, German federal model, British federal model, Spanish federal model, Belgian federal model, Swiss federal model, USA federal model, Canadian federal model.
BTW: A Fascist Hero in Democratic Kiev,Timothy Snyder https://www.nybooks.com/online/2010/02/24/a-fascist-hero-in-democratic-kiev/
“Bandera aimed to make of Ukraine a one-party fascist dictatorship without national minorities.”
Your ‘unitary ethnostate’ in a nutshell.
Also BTW: The ‘Democratic Kiev’ referenced above by that reliable russophobe historian – Timothy Snyder, is not the current one but the one elected in 2010, Yanukovych’s to be exact. Fascinating, isn’t it?
The quickest way for Ukraine to become “a unitary ethnostate” is to genocide the ethnic Ukrainians, not the Russians…
The RUssian Federation is a multi ethnic federal state.
They not only have the same flag colors as the USA, but they still have the original Western values of freedom and respect for human life.
The Khazarian mafia is the one pulling the stringest against ukraine, russia, using bolshevism, nazis, and wef vs Americans.
It’s American supremacists striking before Russia and China get too strong. And from their perspective it is the correct move. Time does not favor them.
Ethics are irrelevant to supremacists of any kind as everything is justified by their own superiority and their enemy.
Obama, Clinton, Bush, Biden are American supremacists. They are also elitists.
So it is unfair to pin this on a minority within the US. The majority of state organs and leaders are fully bought in because supremacy at any cost is equivalent to survival for them. A false analysis but that’s their position.
The “escalations” will change nothing. Just deplete NATO’s armories to the point that they cannot defend themselves and give Russia cause to cut off supplies of all that good stuff without which their economies cannot function. The mistake that people make is thinking that this is a war like WWII. In the modern age, technology changes the nature of war. The US is backward looking. Russia, by necessity, forward looking, following the teachings of the strategist Svechin as I write here:
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/big-serges-big-surge
Let us keep in mind that two can play this game of arms supply. Russia has already supplied Su35s to Iran and shares military technology with China. Next up? Cuba? Venezuela. South Africa (of course). Who knows?
If you are a nuclear superpower nobody is going to be staring down the barrel of anything. Conventional warfare is unsustainable. It is a relic of the past. Today, it is too expensive to maintain an army, much less produce the men, material and munitions necessary, let alone in the sizes necessary to fight a conventional war. Those days are over. The raw materials, let alone the manufacturing base, just isn’t there anymore.
If this proxy war becomes a direct conflict between Russia and the United States it’s all over. You can kiss your a$$ goodbye. China will cover Russia’s back by opening a second front in the South China Sea. The United States cannot fight a one front war. The US is a shadow of its former greatness. A two front war will be defeat on all fronts.
The good news is, that if this thing goes kinetic between Russia and the United States, that Washington DC will be reduced to a burned-out cinder. The United States, the world’s bully, will finally get his and her long overdue, and well-deserved beating.
Supposing the destruction of Washington and within the US, do you think there would be a will to rebuild? Maybe the crop of survivors would be unable to rebuild.
The country would be invaded and most residents would be taken captive.
If Washington, DC were to be nuked, I don’t believe you could go near the place for a long time.
Taking the opposite side for the moment, if the United States used tactical nukes to decapitate the Russian government, with or without Moscow, I believe the Russian people would stand and fight. If they are still alive.
If Washington, DC were to be nuked, I doubt there would be an invasion. There’s already nothing left here in the United States worth taking.
The arable farmland will become one giant desert without fertilizers. The water supply is already polluted by long term forever toxins and one-hundred years of industrial pollution. Cyanobacteria has invaded all standing bodies of water. There are practically no natural resources left; the ones that count; the easy to reach ones are all gone. Our food supply has been poisoned by processed foods. Over 70-percent of the American diet consists of inert matter. Remove what’s left of real food and Americans will starve to death.
Invasion is not necessary. Russia and China can just sit back and let the American people die. If they are still alive.
If the human race is not extinct, forget rebuilding anything. It will be several decades and generations of pure survival before anybody has the time to “rebuild.”
Also, if this thing goes nuclear, it will be the same for everybody, everywhere. The whole world.
IMO.
The real threat would come from the lizard people, who are waiting underground in Nevada. What a buffoon you are.
Imagine the world without DC, London, and Rome.
Exactly what I wrote last week. Trump’s Swamp, the Uniparty, the Deep State apparatus in the State/Defense/Intell departments, and the West Wing of the Executive Mansion – all vaporized. And they brought it on themselves. I just hope the rest of us don’t get too killed in the process.
Be careful! You are using pronouns his and her! You are hurting the feelings of other genders by ignoring them!
Horace,
What is your view of Lt. Col. Macgregor?
What can be done to persuade him into doing the unthinkable?
Jim Giles
Radio Free Mississippi
Excellent posting – thank you!
@Horace
Who says anything about “occupying” Western Europe? We’re talking about the need for Russia to defang them, just like they did to Catherine, Napoleon, and Hitler. China needs to get in there and help!
Il campo di battaglia non sarà la Polonia, ma l’Ucraina centro occidentale. Tutti si chiedono come mai i Russi siano tanto fessi da non aver ancora distrutto ponti, cavalcavia, stazioni e aeroporti fra l’Ucraina e la Polonia o la Romania. Questo è voluto. E’ stato esaurito il serbatoio di armi ex Patto di Varsavia (per cui, in futuro scenario bellico, non ci sarà più il rischio di scambiare un nemico per amico), si stanno esaurendo i magazzini di armi NATO (di cui approfitteranno, al momento giusto, i Cinesi per regolare i conti con Taiwan e, forse, i Siriani, per sbattere fuori yankee da al Tanf) e si tiene la strada aperta per i polli russofobi, alias Polacchi e Baltici, che, combattendo in Ucraina, non potranno avvalersi dell’ombrello NATO ovvero dell’art. 5, la mutua difesa, essendo loro gli aggressori. La russofobia polacca si placherà per sempre…250.000 morti non per difendere la propria Patria ma per intromettersi in una guerra civile se li ricorderanno…fra i Baltici, Estonia e Lettonia hanno complessivamente poco più di 3 milioni di abitanti, ma di questi un milione sono russi e bielorussi… lo sterminio al fronte dei giovani maschi con la svastica nel cervello aprirà nuove prospettive.. mentre la Lituania sarà costretta a cedere il corridoio fra Bielorussia e Kaliningrad. Non ci sarà escalation… appena saranno massacrati i volontari Polacco/ Baltici all’Europa passerà la voglia di assecondare il Pentagono
i suspect this time that many germans would regard the russians as liberators
True.
Definitely!
Right now I think many Americans would feel the same way if something happened to DC
The Germans have no friends. Does a friend destroy $20-Billion dollars in critical civilian infrastructure, and then not admit to it?
How totally whipped has Germany become that it lets the U.S. cut off its energy supply WITHOUT EVEN A WHISPER OF PROTEST?
Germany is like a battered wife. The domineering asshole husband, the U.S., can just beat her up with impunity.
Actually, I suspect that many Germans do NOT share the odious Baerbock’s attitude. Just as millions of we Americans HATE our current government with a fiery passion.
In both countries, as in most countries (as shown by Covid responses), governments are at war against THEIR OWN PEOPLE.
Someone here the other day remarked that Hollande was often called Flanby in France, after the popular jello-like flan in a cup.
I think the Germans probably call Scholz meat jelly behind his back, otherwise known as head cheese.
Let’s put it this way: If I was a German, I’d keep a couple cases of vodka and cigarettes in my cellar, to cheer the boys onto Den Haag and the war crimes trials they need to convene to deal with Ukie, NATO, and EU leaders for their crimes against humanity.
Exactly.
The Ukranian regular army needs to take Zelensky cabal down fast and anialate the Azov thugs then sue for peace. Honestly Ukraine needs to de-nazify itself because this is the only way to gain legitimacy that the west cannot deny, and the Russians will accept. Or we all fry.
Perhaps not, Mark, read what John Helmer who lives in Moscow has to say:
http://johnhelmer.net/blinken-concedes-war-is-lost-offers-kremlin-ukrainian-demilitarization-crimea-donbass-zaporozhe-and-restriction-of-new-tanks-to-western-ukraine-if-there-is-no-russian-offensive/
Don’t trust them. Don’t believe them. I agree with Putin. The “Empire of Lies” cannot be negotiated with. And there’s no need to. Russia is winning. And because of who the Russians are dealing with, Russia needs to take the whole of the Ukraine. The whole enchilada.
They’re just scared mice. When they already thought that there was no Russian winter offensive and were counting the days until Spring. As if spring strengthens crumbling armies. Macgregor is absolutely right. The offensive has already begun. Russia is already shaping the terrain in Zaporizhzhia with three axles as an option as Russia likes it! And the rats even Lukashenko already went to ask for help. Whom they tried to overthrow 1 year ago like Yannukovich. The US is now just trying to push Germany further against Russia not to have gas supplies again after the conflict. The #1 objective of the conflict. Break the connection between Germany and Russia, which calls into question the hegemony of the US. In the West they are all blurred! And what the US gained from this conflict was to anticipate a new global currency that could very well collapse the EU economy and the global financial system as we know it today!
Well, I’ve been saying that this most likely ends in WW3.
However, I think the tanks are just some forlorn gesture; an opportunity for the politicians to pretend they’re doing something to thwart the Russian scourge and the madman Putin. They have to know that an armor company or two – and that’s all the numbers being discussed amount to as far as I’ve heard – aren’t going to do squat against Russia’s armor brigades (regiments? divisions? not sure what they have in country and on the borders). The western tanks will be smoldering hulks (and ugly coffins for Ukrainian crispy critters) within a week or two of being introduced in theater.
The logistics issues go well beyond the time to train the tank crews. It’s worth repeating that tanks – especially the US tanks – are high maintenance. So maintenance crews also need to be trained on how to repair the tanks in the field. Some of those repairs can be rather sophisticated. Then they will need a constant supply of the spare parts to be readily available along with secure transport. Of course, the will also need the ammo to be available.
Finally, tanks don’t just drive around a battlefield on their own. They must coordinate with infantry. Tanks without infantry are dead ducks. So infantry units must be trained to work with the tanks and vice versa. There’s a lot of training beyond operating the tank – and operating with other tanks – that must happen.
All of that said, the other side of my broken record plays that Russia needs to finish this war before the west really works itself up to where they believe they can do something really stupid, like US tank crews and infantry directly fighting Russia b/c the Ukrainians failed, as they inevitably will.
On that note, how the hell is all of this stuff being delivered into Ukraine and why haven’t the Russians annihilated those rat lines? Something is not right with our picture.
The Duran guys seem to think that maybe the tanks will be utilized by the Poles to move into western Ukraine and seize it; something I’ve believed the Poles would end up doing sooner or later. Would the tanks then be turned on defiant Ukrainians? Wouldn’t that be something.
Those tanks may just get tucked away in a safer location for a while until *NATO* says to bring them out and when all the necessary logistics, infantry support, etc… are all available / have been prepared.
Just because NATO says “it will bring” something doesn’t automatically mean “immediately to the front lines”…
Dunno. I used to think that Russia needs big arrow offensives. Now I think it is sucking NATO into a war of attrition that NATO cannot survive and is likely to end with NATO largely demilitarized. Not only that but the whole world is watching the western theater of “we are not providing weapon X” changing to “we are thinking about providing weapon X” to “we are providing weapon X but we are not at war”. It is really a joke and I wonder who they are going through the motions for – most people outside of USA/UK/EU can see through this because most have experiences these lies for the last 4-5 decades. At the very least, it is exposing the west as a lying, conniving, war-thirsty party to the conflict that will on top of everything – be defeated. If I was Vladimir Vladimirovich, I would be grateful for the opportunity presented to further drive the divide of “look at the liars in the West” and “look at us – the victims of the lies in Russia”.
Militarily, the pressure is increasing all over Ukraine. All RF needs is for one front line to buckle and the VSU will crumble under the weight of RFA units pouring through. RFA has activated on all fronts and is putting the Ukrainians in a position to not know where to send reinforcements first – because all fronts are now critical. One slip-up and it all goes to hell for Ukr. The tactic also helps not ignite an all out war with the West – if Russians went all in and pulverized everything in a week, the “righteous” crowd in the West, heated up by the endless amplification of Twitter, CNN etc. would DEMAND we do something. Conversely a slow grind shows no exact point to stand behind and demand action in the Western public. Brilliant, no?
A perfect synopsis! Agree with every detail.
I don’t believe the US will put boots on the ground in Ukraine. The odd mercenaries, instructors, intelligence, yes. The US is wary of what China might do. Will China seize the opportunity to attack Taiwan while US troops are otherwise preoccupied with a war on Russia. Will Iran and Syria seize the opportunity to finally push the US out of their occupied areas in Northern Syria. Will Turkiye seize the opportunity to finally sort out the Kurdish terrorist issue while the US is preoccupied. Will North Korea get involved.
Too many variables to take into consideration and not enough weapons stock. Logistics would be a nightmare. If anything, the US will waver article 5 and let Poland and Romania, possibly, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (Basically the gnome baltic countries) engage with Russia.
At least that’s what I think. 🙂
Actually, American boots have been on the ground in the Ukraine for a while now. First in the form of mercenaries. Second, elements of the 101ST Airborne are stationed just across the border from Odessa in Romania — just in case the Russians try to take the seaport and land lock the Ukrainians. Third, elements of the 182ND arrived in Kiev just before Christmas of 2022, ostensibly to carry out an inventory of all the “stuff” that has been shipped to the Ukrainian military, in their real capacity as military advisors, and to evacuate the American dead back to the United States.
“You cannot keep a people on an endless war footing with threats of endless war. They go insane.”
The people’s government, and their institutions (eg. the MSM), have gotten there first. We Americans are watching this happen to the United States (and the west) firsthand. Front row seats. From the 50-yard line.
When these fool idiots said the US could survive (and by “survive” substitute “win”) a nuclear war, it was all over.
The Russian military tactic (no big arrow offensives, but slow, methodical meat grinder) makes the most sense from almost any perspective, Oddo:
1) 300-1000 uki nazis get sent to their favorite “god” Bandera on a daily basis (de-nazification and de-militarization at the same time)
2) Russian military casualties get minimized (if one were to consider that during the offense casualties could go up significantly). And to what gain “big arrow” offensive? Gain more “land” – Russia does not care about “land”
3) Civilian casualties get minimized as well: at the moment the uki nazis get pulverized at the contact line where almost no civilians left. If you move the line West to other still populated areas, more civilians would become, using the Americans favorite term, “collateral damage” – Russia does care about that, a lot
4) Cost of de-nazification / de-militarization for Russia gets minimized (for the West gets maximized) too: when ukis gets clobbered at the already familiar (and well-studied from drones) contact line, one needs to expend fewer munitions per dead nazi (good savings!), + logistical support is not as costly as when you start moving forward and increase the distance (and chaos). And exactly the opposite is true for the NATO scum: logistical lines are maximized (especially considering they repair their stuff inside the NATO countries), and the ratio of dead NATO-nazis to Russian military casualties are extreme for the NATO-stan
5) Slow meat grinder approach rather than big splashy offensives are more “boring” for the Western dumb plebes who are only interested in a war when it is “American cowboy / hollywood style with huge explosions, millions of dead civilians left-and-right on their favorite dumb-channel CNN”. And since the only thing that seems to matter to the West is optics, why give them the optics?!
6) and last, but not least, I do think that the ultimate goal for Russia is to defang NATO (and force them back behind the 1997 line – or further) as Russia stated in its ultimatum in December 2021. If NATO is not defeated, completely and utterly, to the point of being obvious to even the dummies in the State Dpt, imbeciles in Pentagon, and, well, of course, pretty much anyone with 3 brain cells around the world — NATO will not stop being a threat to Russia.
Hence, I think the slow meat grinder tactic has the most advantages compared to some big offensives.
Russia is using the strategy I revised for Operation Iraqi Freedom. Move into a central strategic area, don’t bomb the civilians to hell while doing it, and then just wait for the Iraqis and Iranians to come swarming in over the next few years, and destroy them wholesale.
That way, there’s nobody left for an insurgency and USA has the power of holding a defensive position. No need to go close quarters battle with terrorists, just suck them all into one city or one country Iraq.
It worked so well that even the CIA couldn’t gin up enough of their fake insurgents to do another terror attack any time soon during Bush 2. Hussein though…
Reminds me of the Old Bull (Russia) and the Young Bull (US).
Young Bull, “Hey, dad, let run down the hill and have our way with one of them cows (insert NATO country).”
The Old Bull, “No son, lets walk down there nice and slow and do them all.”
YES!!
Indeed brilliant. Putin c.s. are very intelligent and patient. ODDO a very realistic strategig analyses. My compliments…
It’s certain that at this rate NATOstani regular forces will be openly sent into Ukranazistan, maybe with “temporary Ukrainian citizenship” as a pretence of not being directly involved. Look for the tank crews to be the first.
Also, forget about the tanks being reduced to burnt hulks in two days. This won’t happen because they’ll be parked next to schools, kindergartens and residential buildings so as to use civilians as shields. They will only be used in combat if the relevant city is directly attacked, otherwise they’ll be used as the thin edge of the wedge for more overt NATOstani involvement.
Hiding tanks and artillery in residential areas worked in Donbas, among Russian speakers, but it won’t work in farther west among Ukrainian speakers. Those tanks will be fair game.
Indeed, this is what they did in the beginning, when they had tanks and fuel and means of transport. Now these promised pieces of iron must sneak in there somehow undetected from Poland or Romania. When they are ready to be shipped and operated by trained people… not sure how many EU/US kamikaze tank operators are there volunteering to be fried. Or who can actually fit inside the tank… these western army folks look sort of “prosperously rotund”. Yes, round is a shape, so they are in shape 🙂
The Russians have not destroyed the supply lines from Poland into Western Ukraine because the Russians WANT the NATO equipment to end up in the battlefield. Then they can destroy it. Multiple reasons. 1. Russia demilitarizes NATO. 2. Russia shows European civilians (French, Italian, Germans etc) how lethal Russian military assets are. Hopefully the civilians will revolt against their lying cheating governments. 3. Russia wants the USA out of European politics and military. By destroying USA military assets Russia shows how weak the US military has become and how strong Russian assets have become. And 4. Russia hopes that with the almost complete destruction of NATO assets then there will be no hot Nato war in Europe. In other words the more NATO Assets that get to Bakhmut and Zaphorizia and Odessa the better. They will all be destroyed. Much better than stopping them in western Ukraine.
This makes a lot of sense, especially when you factor in the economic moves against the US dollar and diversion of commodities and resources towards the Asian economies. NATO is getting bled while their ability to support the military economically is being eroded.
A bit more support for your case:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/study-finds-us-would-run-out-long-range-munitions-1-week-china-hot-war
If China goes hot against Taiwan, the US has enough munitions for about a week. And that’s not allowing for the current drain. China’s hyper-sonics take out the US Pacific fleet in a day or two, so whatever they have there goes to the bottom of the ocean in a hurry. Not pretty. Germany currently has munitions for 2 days. What’ll those tanks use as ammo? And the wadding for artillery shells comes from China. Does the UK still get their tank cannon barrels from China? They used to. Pretty bad when you rely on your enemies for the supply critical components.
I would like to add. The main reason for preserving cross-border crossings is to allow disloyal ukis to flee the country. It is clear that they will never get back. In addition, it will increase tensions in the West.
2020 Average net wage in Ukraine = 90€ month.
Poorest place in Europe by far. Very few refugees will return once they’ve spent a year in Russia or EU. Ukraine has been depopulating since 2014. This trend will only accelerate.
Ukraine has been depopulating not since 2014, but ever since breaking away from the Soviet Union in 1991. In those intermittent 33 years, the country has lost practically half of its original population.
One interesting story about disloyal Ukies leaving the country. A friend of mine payed for the travel to the US and hosted a Ukrainian refugee family of 3 in his home last year. Since the father was of draft age, he had to get to the US via Russia. I thought it was fascinating that you would need to enter the enemies country to escape forced conscription and get to the US. Anyway, his act of kindness to this family turned out to be a nightmare and had to throw them out after a few months. Not saying all refugees are this way, just this particular incident.
Did you here the story from Ireland, where a family hosted a female refugee from Ukraine? They started to get suspicious when lots of questionable men started hanging around their place. They finally realized she was whoring herself out and sent her down the road…
Yes.
All of this is true, looking at the theater alone.
But on the bigger picture, the escalation is not to be overlooked either.
NATOstani civilians will never revolt, unless “,revolt” means wagging around placards for an hour and then going home. The only ones who might mount serious resistance are the French, and the gerontophiliac Macronist regime knows how to crush protests (re Gilets Jaunes). Expecting Europistanis to revolt is waiting for Godot.
I have to agree with your perception.
Consumerism, screens, addictions, growing illiteracy, and other evils, all concur to keep these so-called pampered populations in a submissive and delusional condition. Common sense is loosing ground. Political propaganda targeting any real opponents, depicted as fascists, is successful.
Colonel McGregor hopes to see the West Europeans turn against their corrupt and treacherous rulers. Protests can happen, but there is a long way between landwide protests (as we had in France in the recent years) and a revolution. I see no regime change any time soon in this part of the world. I wish I am wrong.
Quoting from Eric:
“On that note, how the hell is all of this stuff being delivered into Ukraine and why haven’t the Russians annihilated those rat lines? Something is not right with our picture.”
Indeed!! Even though eventually the Russians took the gloves off from October onwards (following the Crimea bridge explosion), in my opinion too many trains still operating and other critical infrastructure operational.
Not sure if the gentle approach is emboldening the West by believing that Russia is weak?
Maybe the attrition is intended to fully “de-Nazify” Ukraine? If all they continue to fight this proxy war “to the last Ukrainian”, there won’t be any Banderites left e.g. just yesterday a saw a very graphic and gruesome video of an Azov fighter (with the corresponding t-shirt) with his right arm a complete and horrible mangled mess.
Anyhow… the Russian strategy feel quite enigmatic, keeping all of us guessing.
Of course it is. NATOstan would be far more intimidated, and the chances of WWIII virtually nullified, if Russia had annihilated Ukranazistan in a week in February as the NATOstanis had themselves expected.
NATOstan would not be intimidated — they would just ramp up more and faster. Any reports from NATO claiming “NATO can’t keep up with production!” can similarly be considered fake stories pushed forward by NATO to get the Russians to underestimate them and/or lull them into a false sense of security as well…
Russia is playing the slow game because its main central friend on the other side — aka, internal NATO corruption — takes *time* to sow its seeds of chaos/disintegration/etc. Time that Russia could also use on its own side to ramp up its own military/economic/BRICS/etc ambitions as well…
Right on Eric…
I have not the slightest idea why this has not already been done. Europistan is a colony of the American Empire; what’s the point of having any diplomatic relations with slaves? When the slave owner is an open enemy, what’s the point of having diplomatic relations with said slave owner? There is a hotline between Warshington and Moscow for absolutely essential business, the rest can go to the devil.
Again, this could all have been avoided by a massive all out shock and awe campaign in February last year, complete with the utter annihilation of the nazi regime and the elimination of Ukranazistan from the map of the world. This will have to be done now anyway, only with immeasurably greater risks of WWIII as well as in blood and treasure for Russia. Many tens of thousands of fewer Ukrainians would have died as well, maybe many fewer millions by the time this is over and done with.
“Shock and awe” only works against small poorly supported militias, not NATO-funded battalions throwing the population of Ukraine up against Russian artillery.
Trying to do that against the latter would simply mean NATO would ramp up even more and sooner against the Russian forces. But, alas, there’s no need for that, as (1) time is on the side of the Russia here as well (any extra time Russia gets is time Russia can spend untying itself from (and unifying itself against) the West along with advancing its own/BRICS/etc military + economic + etc ambitions), and (2) this is still a convenient money laundry/embezzlement scheme for Western politicians, so ultimately there’s little reason for Russia (given #1 and #2) to try to end this “quickly”…
This could all have been avoided by Merkel and Hollande drawing a hard line at Minsk II, granted – a tall order for slave-states. I hope they’re sleeping well, counting nightmares of their making.
“Merkel and Hollande.”
Two utterly detestable dogs.
Holland is actually a blob.
French called him “flanby” for his resemblance to a locally well know “easy to unmold” egg flan brand. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hz0GKVG14Ug )
The Japanese ambassadors to the US didn’t leave town until after Pearl Harbor.
My bad, I see now it’s 31 tanks from the US. So closer to three companies/a battalion.
Also, don’t the Abrams require special fuel? That’s another logistics nightmare.
The Abrams, especially the M1A1 is a “gas guzzler”. According to an ex Abrams crew member (Aust Army) on a day of heavy usage they had to refuel 2 or 3 times per-day. I accepted his figures but had doubts. Those doubts were put to rest by Colonel Douglas McGregor who claimed that in Iraq on a heavy usage day they were refueling every 6 hours. Checked via a Google search – stated that the fuel consumption on a flat road was 1.7 gal/mile; cross-country that rises to 3.5 gal/mile. Total range across country is 124 miles/200 km (in a straight line)(max). Remember that when in a combat scenario a tank does not travel in a straight line. The vehicle (with an experienced commander) when moving tactically will be jockying around between positions, at low speed/gear (uses more fuel) between burst of advancing to his next bound. So yeah very heavy on fuel. As with the German Leopard 2 (and Leopard 1) the engine is actually multi fuel and can burn a variety of fuels including diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, and marine diesel. The difference between the Abrams and Leopard? The Abrams engine is a turbine. As you said a logistics nightmare – irrespective of the fuel type.
As an aside back in 2013/14 it was reputed (I say again reputed) that during an attack against the DPR a Ukrainian reinforced Motorized Rifle Brigade (had a battalion of Azov and a battalion of Polish Volunteers(?) attached) got over excited and out ran their resupply echelon. They the ran out of both fuel and ammo in the middle of an attack. The DPR commander realized what had happened and deployed his artillery and rocket forces to smash the logistic tail as it raced to resupply the Brigade. Apparently the DPR inherited almost a brigade worth of heavy equipment when the brigade was forced to surrender.
Thanks.
The Army had the Abrams in Gulf War 1, but the Corps was still deploying an M60 variant. I seem to recall a discussion about the Army having to obtain jet fuel (?) for their tanks. So the Abrams can burn diesel too, just relatively lots of it.
Was just listening to the Brian Berletic link. He covers the issues better than I did. Note to self; LJ puts the links in his posts for a reason.
An American vehicule that is not fuel efficient, and at 55 feels like its doing 110 mph. Who wooda thunk it?
I’m guessing it was designed around the latest 1920/30s Harley-Davidson engine.
Yes, the M1 Abrams require aviation fuel, meaning the extremely flammable and expensive jet fuel to power such a heavy load. And how is Ukraine and its supporters going to get a reliable supply line of jet fuel to the front lines? I’ve never heard of jet fuels going to the front lines in any war. Those Abrams will literally be sitting ducks that weigh over 60 tons each and will show up like bright lights on any recon / radar. If I’m a Ukrainian tankie, I’ll be terrified to man one for I’ll be roasted alive in a slow moving metal oven. Mobility trumps armour in warfare, for there is no armour that is impenetrable, especially when you know exactly where it is and can deploy various advanced weapons.
“. . . how is Ukraine and its supporters going to get a reliable supply line of jet fuel to the front lines?”
Because the US will be there supplying it. Just saying.
The Abrams uses a turbine engine so almost any fuel can be used. All US Abrams used diesel until the early 2000s when the US Army switched to JP8. The switch increased engine MTBF by about 20% (iirc).
Whatever it’s burning, there better be a big supply of it. The Abrams’ thirst is Falstaffian, using ~2x the fuel of a Leopard 2 at “cruising” speed, but it gets worse. The turbine’s consumption is constant regardless of load, so at (say) 1/2 cruising speed the Abrams burns >4x the Leopard. A dug in Abrams needs an auxiliary power generator to power its electronics and load/fire its gun as the turbine will burn all its fuel in a few hours.
In any case, the Abrams will cross the border at Poland and Romania, heading for Lvov and Odessa respectively. They have no net value on the front line.
Sort of like going back in time. Way back – to the Centurion Tanks of the 1950s-1960s. Burnt through a lot of petrol – in the petrol driven vehicles the engine was a Rolls Royce Meteor V12 – a re-rated Rolls Royce Merlin from the Spitfire. Also slow max about 20 mph (just over 30 kph). In Vietnam the Australian Cents, even with a 100 gal auxiliary fuel tank on the back, which was susceptible to heavy MG fire, never went too far from a safe base (eg an FSB) and if they did they would inevitably have to put in a secure LZ for resupply by helicopter. The Cent also had a small 4 cylinder Morris engine to run the electrics and keep the battery charged when the main engine was shut down.
You can even run it on vodka. Speaking of which, it’s been forever and a day since I’ve seen Russian Standard on a shelf…
Three different varieties of Russian Standard were available at the local Winn-Dixie package store down here in Florida as of Dec 2022. Regular, Gold,and Platinum. I bought four handles, three regular, one gold. I will open the gold once Russia finishes off Ukraine.
Correct. The Abrams have a turbocharged powered unit versus the standard diesel powered tanks commonly used by other countries. They require special fuel and lots of it. Abrams run for 6 to 8 hours then require refueling – a logistical nightmare on the battlefield. Take out the fueling trucks and the Abrams become a sitting duck for Russian artillery/rockets/drones/aircraft. They won’t last long.
Next version of the Abrams is going to run on Copium
The goal is not to get those tanks into Ukraine any time soon. Just to keep the war going for as long as possible so that the Military Industrial Complex can make as much money as. Also, to poison relations between Germany and Russia so much that they never recover, because if German technology and Russian natural resources get together, then that threatens US hegemony. Also, so that US LNG manufacturers can sell natural gas to Europe at exorbitant prices. That’s why the Nordstream pipelines were blown up. Your thoughts Mr. Johnson?
As soon as a half dozen Leopards are blown out of action, Biden will announce problems with Abrams deliveries. Grifters always grift. Merkel was good at it too but Scholz? A sucker’s born every minute.
Actually, the more weapons blown up, the better. That means more weapons need to be made, so more money to the MIC.
But the MIC doesn’t make Abrams any more. They just keep refurbishing existing hulls.
So if the existing hulls get used up then…. that’s all, folks!
Actually, for the last couple of years, the US military has been beefing up their Abrams building capacity. Also, alot of the money that has been given to the MIC lately is for tanks that haven’t even been built yet.
Shouldn’t that be ‘Burnum and Bailout’?
So, now China has priority access to Russia’s natural resources and will eventually eat US industry that hoped to bury EU industry alive.
This was not a well-devised long term strategy. An extraordinarily stupid one, in fact. Sounds like something Greenspan might have concocted.
Well, either a Greenspan or a Blinken. I’m always awestruck by the sheer stupidity in that face of his as he stands resolutely behind Brandon.
Per German tanks, their DM said the problem was that German industry shut down for the winter and parts are not being produced to repair those in storage. He says at best Germany can deliver is 29 tanks in May while the rest trickle in.
Per American tanks. The US Army has maintained an armored brigade along Poland’s border with Ukraine for over a year now, although they keep it quiet. It could donate tanks across the border tomorrow.
In the end, the Russians will end up with several types of NATO tanks to study.
What NATO is worried about is that their tanks are not fighting the Iraqi Republican Guard at the battle of 73 Easting.
M1A1’s had the advantage of Thermal Targeting Systems and a longer maximum effective range of the main gun.
Russia has the exact same systems, plus radar, and a reported 12000m maximum kill range tube launched missile system in the T-14 Armarta.
As a former cold war tank commander I can tell you THAT would be my #1 concern and I am sure it would be the same for any other tank commander as well.
Totally agree. As a 1970s tank commander – I wouldn’t want to go up against the current Russian Army in any of the offerings from western manufacturers, especially an Abrams. That tank should have the same nicknames as the M4 Sherman of WW2 vintage – “Zippo” or “Ronson”. Saw a clip of a USMC(?) Abrams get hit in Iraq by either an RPG or an RCL. Only one guy came out of the turret and he was on fire. Also a clip of an Iraqi Abrams getting an ATGW in the right rear of the turret. Two explosions. First the missile hitting. Second, the ammo in the turret bustle going up. Noted that there were two columns of flame, smoke and debris less than 1 m across going straight up with what looked like hatches on top.
I Iike a comment I once heard: In Russia engineers build weapon systems for the use of the soldiers. In the US engineers build weapon systems for the profits of the company shareholders.
The Ronson nickname came about because British crews had extremely poor ammunition stowage discipline, often carrying extra rounds loose in the fighting compartment; any spark or flash would have a chance of igniting the propellant. The M4 wasn’t any more vulnerable than its contemporaries such as the T-34 or Panzer IV (in fact the Panzer IV had the worst armor layout of late-war mediums), and any tank hit in the ammunition stowage is going to burn. The US Army reviewed the data and installed wet stowage in all M4s; this, combined with renewed emphasis on stowage discipline, contributed to the lowest tank crew casualty rate of any army during the war. (hat tip to The Chieftain)
My brother, more of a military historian than I am even, told me years ago that British naval losses at the Battle of Jutland in WW1 were caused or exacerbated by poor ammo discipline; in the heat of the battle they would leave all the transport hatches from the Ammo stores to the turrets open, thus allowing a hit to quickly get into the ammo stores. The Germans had employed a technical solution; each hatch in the supply train from the ammo store to the turret would not open until the previous hatch was closed.
AMEN SIR!
Besides ATGMs, add suicide drones, guided artillery, and air launched missiles to the list of lethal weps that can kill a tank. Now add sensors and targeting systems of a warfare peer. Lunacy.
As you suggest tanks are fast becoming obsolete. There are also several RPGs that can take out any existent tank with a well placed hit.
The South China Morning Post (from antiwar.com) is reporting that Anthony Blinken is considering warning China not to provide any assistance to Russia in its war efforts. The arrogance and stupidity of United States government officials never ceases to amaze me.
You can bet that if ever the Russians call on China for help, half the railwagons on the Siberia Express will be filled with whatever they need and who’s to prove otherwise?
This has been discussed ad-nauseam.
The collective west made a horrible mistake with the sanctions, illegal asset seizures and pressure on global south actors to line up – which backfired spectacularly – isolating itself from the rest of the world and exposing itself as an empire of lies and double-talk and provoking an economic/diplomatic/geo-political war of attrition that it is losing.
I mean – even lowly Burkina Faso is telling the French to get the f* out, BRICS is talking about a joint currency, Iran is joining EEU with open path to bypass sanctions, Turkey is closer to Russia and Syria than NATO, Russia and China are enjoying a honeymoon, so on and so on – the collective west shut the doors on itself in a matter of measly six months and the doors are shut, bolted and unlikely to be open again. All the resources ripe for grabs, all the cheap slave labor, all the plans the west had for furthering its comforts…. – all gone.
They cannot go back and will never admit they were wrong. This leaves only one route and that is – war.
Mind you, I foresee the return of McCarthyism in USA on a large scale and very soon.
well said Oddo,i propose that Mcarthyism is allready here.What was McCarthyism? Attacking your own citizens when they disagree,look around and tell me what you see in America.
I agree with Oddo, that McCarthyism has not even started in earnest yet. FEMA did not build hundreds of concentration camps 10-15 years ago for nothing.
So, “attacking” the deplorables in the jew-MSM because they disagree with you is “you ain’t seen nothin’ yet”.
Concentration camps, labeling deplorables as “terrorists” and then killing them and their families in their homes is what is coming to this God-forsaken joke of a country… And soon.
Well, at least McCarthyism, albeit exaggerated, was based on a real phenomenon, trotskiist sympathy in Hollywood and certain government circles.
Now you have the ones who would have been blacklisted by McCarthy running the show and pulling a McCarthy on their dissenters. Personally, I think the whole neocon label was just a semantic ruse.
On the other hand, you have the Hillary chameleon, who started off from another direction entirely – as a Goldwater groupie.
In short, this country’s politicos are nuts.
No endorsement of McCarthy BTW. Just a view of the asylum from afar, yet far too close for comfort.
Actually, Senator McCarthy pointed out that the US government had many officials who were working on behalf of the USSR. His focus was specifically people in government, not private citizens.
He was right as proven when Soviet archives became available after the fall of the USSR.
A large proportion of those people were members of a particular, wealthy and globalist oriented tribal group. Those people were betraying the US Constitution and the US people.
They and their fellows, with their control of most US media, smeared McCarthy for his actions in attempting to reveal those who were betraying the US to support the USSR and global communism. How’s that for “attacking citizens when they disagree”.
It seems that Turkey’s main role in the new multi-polar world is to deny entry to new members of NATO. Erdogan can be problematic, though, he can turn faster than a windmill.
He’ll squeeze Sweden and Finland like a popped pimple. So far, he’s made them kneel. Now he wants them prostrate and they’re just a bit too reluctant for his taste.
Of course, the US will hang onto the gatekeeper of the Black Sea at all cost, including selling those two out. It’s an interesting dilemma. Kind of an intriguing sideshow to the main circus.
Two things, one, they probably have been training the Ukies for some time now and they are probably ready to go with the new tanks. Two, there is a powerbase in the USA, hell bent on destroying the country. Started with Clinton selling out to the Chinese and culminated with Obama eviscerating the Military. They won’t win.
One simply cannot imagine the logistics necessary in the use of military tracked vehicles unless one has done it. There is so much that goes into operating tanks than just learning how to use one in a fight. PMCS is a thing. A crew not able or willing to do what is necessary every day by the book exactly day after day will find themselves with an immobile pillbox instead of a tank in short order.
This is just a stupid and escalatory move that will have no actual impact. And if you see those tanks out there being operated competently within the next year, you can bet NATO “volunteers” are crewing them and the NATO logistics train is supporting them.
Matthew 24:6-8 could we be actually witnessing this happen now ? 🤔 I wonder
Patriotes or Leopards the Russians will destroy it. This is a practice exercise. There is no hardware the west makes that Russia cannot rubbish. Bring it on!
Assholes.
Russia has already recalled its ambassadors in Latvia and Estonia and downgraded from embassies to missions with chargés d’affaires.
It is a Bankers war they like it when Christians kill Christians.
Jamie Dimon was war-mongering at Davos. I think the big banks are trouble. One might go down again.
The NATO side is typical bluff and bluster – lots of tough talk supposedly to scare the opposition Russians, and a lot of projection in that they seem to think the Russians are a bunch of political hacks like they are. Well, I don’t think it’ll work. Russians tend to speak when they have something to say, and don’t engage in BS. Meanwhile NATO is using up all its inventory, with no capacity to replace. It’s a head scratcher as Russia has to have an idea of how long NATO can bleed assets with no capacity to replace them.
As to the tanks, how do you “sneak” a hundred or so 65 tonne tanks into Ukraine? Rhetorical, as you can’t. On rail, real easy to spot, on semis with extra wheels for the weight, still easy. Maybe they’ll cover them with flowers and pretend it’s a Ukrainian version of the Rose parade. They’ll all be picked off before they get close to the front. And of course with the major announcements it’s not like Russia won’t have an eye out for them. Who fights a war where they announce ahead of time in the media what they’ll do?
It just gets crazier and crazier. We seem to have fools taking on some serious folks here. Do the NATO types really feel that invincible? Are they so blinded by their own hubris? I don’t get it. I guess Ron White got it right when he said “you can’t fix stupid.”
I suppose they will “sneak” in tanks the same way they sneak in 777s and HIMARs. Something is deficient with the Russian capabilities that they permit all that sneaking.
Not necessarily. They may simply be filming advertisements for their military exports.
Mercouris and Christoforou, I think, have it right: the Leapord 2s and M1 Abrams are there solely so that the US and Germany (and the rest of the EU) can say that they did all that could be done to support Ukraine even as Ukraine falls.
A & A also talked about Poland potentially just hoovering up all the “donations” and using it to occupy West Ukraine, but that would be tantamount to the same thing.
What I do not see, and still do not see, is a full mobilization – which is what the US and Europe would need to fight Russia. I’m not talking about failed Vietnam era “Great Society” type mobilization (which destroyed the US economy anyway) – I am talking about a WW2 style mobilization including massive reduction in US and European standards of living.
Would the ukies accept Polish annexation?
I doubt there will be any left to fight the poles …
The US has disintegrated way past the point of being able to effectively fully mobilize, as you describe it.
Strange to be asking these kinds of questions after all of these years
“So why in the world of the sane does the United States and NATO think that they can send advanced weapons to Ukraine for the purpose of killing Russians?”
Because the West operates under the delusion it runs a rules based world order. I.e., the West makes the rules, and others then follow the orders. The maker of said rules doesn’t actually have to follow them. It can also choose to flaunt them because…well, democracy.
The better line of questioning is when the hell is Russia going to actually grow a backbone and impose 10X responses for the constant crossing of their defined red lines and Western escalations. The more it holds back, the more it feeds the Wests delusions of omnipotence, to the increasing peril of Russia. They need to snap the US out of its delusions before this conflict reaches a point of no-return. They should just get on with their, and stop with the tepid responses as the US dials up the conflict dial.
“
US Abrams and the Leopard tanks will never go east of the Dnieper river. They are too heavy for bridges and require intense support and fuel and will be easily destroyed. They will be kept in West Ukraine to attempt carve out Lvov as a face saving win. Russia will achieve its objectives and turn West Ukraine into a rump state with a DMZ zone like Korea. Russia will grind out the remaining Ukraine Army until there is little manpower left. There is nothing NATO can do to stop Russia. This is all theatrics to buy time and put lipstick on the pig for PR purposes.
Well, either a Greenspan or a Blinken. I’m always awestruck by the sheer stupidity in that face of his as he stands resolutely behind Brandon.
I really hope you’re right about that. It does make a lot of sense.
Sounds very sensible, quite a plausible scenario IMHO.
Question is, will the UK/US/EU overlords – and the neighboring Poles – be sensible enough to be contented with this scenario ?
May Rodina-mat give them all the hell that they so richly deserve.
This just in — US Army Generals have no intention of sending M-1s to Ukraine. They are slow-walking this, pulling tanks from long-term storage stateside, which means they must be sent to the factory in Lima Ohio for a rebuild/upgrade that will take weeks, plus at least a month to ship them to Ukraine. So these tanks will not show up until after summer, after Russia has won.
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/01/abrams-to-rumble-into-ukraine-us-joins-germanys-vow-to-send-kyiv-tanks/
“Just before Biden’s speech, several administration officials previewed the announcement to reporters. Those officials declined to specify which Abrams tank variant will be sent to Ukraine but said the US will not pull these vehicles from units or existing stockpiles and instead use the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. A DoD factsheet said they’d be part of a $400 million USAI package.
“While the deliveries will take some time, because this is a procurement, the United States will begin now to establish a comprehensive training program for their use,” one administration official said. “These tanks are complex systems that require a significant amount of training and maintenance, so [the Department of Defense] is currently working through the mechanisms to deliver the fuel and equipment Ukraine will need to operate and to maintain the Abrams.”
That official declined to detail when the Abrams tanks will arrive inside the country but said it will take “months as opposed to weeks.” Once there they will help Ukraine with combined arms maneuver operations to “to defend and reclaim their territory,” the official said.
Part of the reason questions about the Abrams variant and delivery timeline went unanswered is because the administration hasn’t decided on a firm path ahead, according to Assistant Secretary of the US Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology Douglas Bush. Speaking to reporters after the announcement, Bush said the Army is creating a laundry list of options for Pentagon officials to consider before deciding which way to go.
“There are multiple courses of action and it’s not just the tanks,” he added. “We have to be able to [deliver] tanks, support equipment, the training, the ammunition, the fuel… It’s really a bigger picture.”
“There are multiple courses of action and it’s not just the tanks,” he added. “We have to be able to [deliver] tanks, support equipment, the training, the ammunition, the fuel… It’s really a bigger picture.”
Ah, so the US does, of course, realize the challenges associated with its politicians’ statements and promises. No surprise. The US military is not populated by complete idiots, like congress and the white house is.
Interestingly, the USMC announced is getting rid of all of its M1A1 tanks (because Abrams are not suited for island hopping toward China). I was wondering if those would be refitted and sent to Ukraine. Not sure of timelines.
“…after Russia has won”
One would hope. Assumes Russia gets serious at some point in the not too distant future.
I ask again- how is NATO is able to continue bringing men, weapons, supplies into Ukraine? Where is Russian air. Why is the Ukrainian carpet bombed to dust? Why are they not jamming Ukrainian AD so air can do its job (if AD is the issue)? How does Ukraine still have an army in the field effective enough to halt the Russians from a sweeping victory? How are the Ukrainian people not dying en masse from freezing and hunger? Either Ukraine is on the verge of total collapse any day now, or we are misjudging something.
“or we are misjudging something.”
My 2 cents worth…I too have looked on in dumbfounded amazement for months at WHY Russia did not end this “SMO” sooner. The longer it persists, the more likely that somebody in the West does something truly stupid.
Many reasons for this have been given by experts and analysts in hindsight, and they may all be partially true. Even if it wasn’t the original plan A or even plan B, the slow grind approach does now work to Russia’s advantage.
But I tend NOT to favor “17 dimensional” thinking, or that the Russian General Staff is full of Mensa Geniuses and chess grandmasters who have preplanned every future detail to the nth degree.
Rather, I favor the Occam’s Razor answer, Russia did not move faster or with more “shock and awe” because it was NOT able to. As we have seen, it takes time for armies and economies to mobilize to a war-time footing (especially under burden of sanctions), to burn thru the rust that permeates any bureaucracy, and to foment public opinion in support of the effort and sacrifices required.
Why didn’t Russia fire 10,000 missiles on Feb or March or April 24th and level Ukraine? Because they didn’t have them. Keep in mind that priority Number 1 for the Kremlin is to protect Moscow and the motherland. IMO…they will not fire more missiles or shells on the Ukrainian front than they can spare against the time when NATO attacks Russia itself.
But now Russian production is ramping up just at the time when NATO is exhausting itself in support of Ukraine, with no feasible prospect to restock in the foreseeable future.
Thor wrong!Occams Razor is Russia did not attack full on because they CHOSE not to.
Thor (great name btw) I agree. It’s not 5D chess playing. Russia didn’t do it because they couldn’t. I already concluded that with a fair degree of certainty, but I keep throwing the question out there to see if there are plausible alternatives.
When one observes video and pictures of Ukrainian towns, like Soledar, where heavy fighting has occurred, they are destroyed to the same extent as they would would be if Russia simply flew some big bombers over and dropped their load and ended the defense in a minute as opposed to weeks. So I don’t buy the kinder gentler Russia trying to avoid killing civilians and destroying infrastructure argument.
As we both say, giving the enemy time is always a mistake. It permits the enemy a chance to learn and develop counters. It also costs you in terms of men and equipment.
The lack of overwhelming Russian air tells me that western air defense is pretty effective. Furthermore the NATO supply lines into Ukraine must be heavily defended by the AD systems and that’s why Ukraine is constantly resupplied.
If you and I can draw the fair conclusion that we have – and it is an obvious and parsimonious one – then the US/NATO is also coming to the conclusion that Russia faces serious limitations in its capabilities, which, in turn, means that US/NATO could become ballsy enough to do something really stupid by way of direct confrontation; something I’m sure Russia doesn’t want to deal with if, for no other reason, b/c the risk of nuclear exchange goes way up, but also large conventional military losses become a reality too.
Contrary to popular belief the US Army DID lose a number of Abrams during the invasion of Iraq. I can remember seeing a video of an M1 Abrams (USMC I think) which was maneuvering under a large bridge. The crew was closed down (buttoned up in US parlance) with all hatches shut and locked. The tank got hit by something (reputed to be an RCL). The tank ground to a halt and after a few seconds the loaders hatch opened and the guy came out of the tank, collapsed on the top of the vehicle and rolled onto the ground. Infantry raced forward to put the poor guy out – his clothing was on fire. He was the only one I saw get out of the tank. Apparently there is a facility in the US that had a large number of damaged/destroyed vehicles brought back from Iraq – including a number of M1 Abrams. Not sure of the number quoted but according to Mr Google/Wikipedia the US lost 9 Abrams to RPGs. RPGs not tank fire, or ATGW, or air attack………
Ask the Houthis my friend what they did more recently with Saudi Abrams tanks as well as Bradleys. Not to take anything away from the Amazing Houthis as I love to call them, these are guys who fight in skirts and flip flops, not combined arms monsters like the Russians.
You are right with the Abrams’ losses in Iraq. The US lost a lot more than they have officially admitted to, nearly 80 were hit and put out of action, of which supposedly 60 were repaired. At any rate, Russia can produce tens of thousands more Kornet-E ATGMs than the US can produce any type of armoured vehicle in total. If that weren’t enough for Uncle Sam & friends, Russia has licensed the production of the Kornet to its allies such as Iran and China, which, well, based on economies of scale, could produce millions probably at a cost astronomically lower than anything the West could dream of. Russia, unlike their myopic adversaries in Washington, London, Paris etc. has played the long game down to a T to the huge detriment of former colonial powers. They just can’t accept the “fait accompli”!!!!
i BRICS producono armi
U$ANATO producono carta verde $dollars
E non dimentichiamo un’infinita di menzogne e propaganda!!
The M1 Abrams is in no way a game changer. It is just not suitable for the Ukrainian scenario — too big, too heavy, too complicated to maintain and sustain, and not available in enough quantity to be useful — EVER–although earliest would be autumn this year, when the ground is too soft for a vehicle this heavy. The Russians are not afraid of the tank but US armor you use DU ammunition — which the Russians put in a category along with dirty bombs. They have promised retaliation if NATO starts using radioactive weapons.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/42282
A whole video of Abrams tanks being destroyed by Iraqi.
That’s one hell of a lot of tanks.
Where is the outrage? One of the most important German government officials (Annalena Baerbock) stated that Germany and the EU are at war with Russia. This is a declaration of war, meaning WWIII officially started. Where is the German people? Why are they not in the streets asking for the resignation of this monster? Don’t they realize that this time, one way or another, it will be the end of Germany as a state, perhaps the end of the world as we know it? Nikita Khrushchev once said “if nuclear weapons are used the living will envy the dead”.
Not just an important government official but the freakin’ foreign minister — the government’s official spokesman on matters pertaining to Germany’s relations with other countries. So yes, her statement is tantamount to a declaration of war.
It will probably be walked back with some lame excuse that she chose her words poorly, etc. But what does that say about her ability to conduct diplomacy? She made what she thought was a splendidly clever riposte in an EU debate without considering how it might be perceived by others outside the chamber. Amateur.
She’s a worthy successor to Ribbentrop in every way.
Germany is a colony of the USA, as this short video explains.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adfyCJLmPM8
The USA controls its military and politics, mostly through bribes and blackmail. That video includes a clip of Baerbock stating she will do whatever it takes to ensure that Ukraine wins, no matter what German voters think.
This is what was posted on the slvyagranad telegram channel regarding the Leopard tanks:
Yes, we can destroy the Leopard 2. No, it won’t be easy.
By Subaru X
It’s official – Germany agreed to provide 14 Leopard-2 Main Battle Tanks to Ukraine, and allow Poland and Finland to donate similar numbers of the tank.
Many commentators are dismissive of this deal, saying a few dozen MBTs will make no difference, the AFU has insufficient trained personnel to use them effectively and no resources to maintain them. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any western tanks delivered to Ukraine would “burn like all the others”. To any pro-Russian observer this is all very reassuring.
Be certain however – the appearance of even a few dozen of these machines on the battlefield is a major development, and a threat which the Armed Forces of Russia takes very seriously.
A modern MBT is a heavily armed and armoured, network connected, autonomous, mobile battle station. The presence of just a few Leopard 2s can multiply the fighting power of an entire brigade, due to the weapons, sensors, communication and protection they bring.
MBTs such as the Leopard 2 are not easy targets to destroy. They cannot be destroyed by indirect fire – only direct hits by armour piercing weapons can stop them. We can use our own MBTs as tank killers but this will expose them and their crews to very high risk. We can attack from the air, however the enemy maintains effective point air defence so again this risks our precious aviation assets – both machines and personnel.
Infantry-operated anti-tank weapons are the final option. Any infantry soldier who has faced off against an enemy MBT and survived, knows how difficult and dangerous that mission is.
Just as Mr. Peskov promised, we will eventually burn every German tank which invades our land. Whatever the cost. Let’s just not pretend it will be easy.
@Slavyangrad
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community
It’s feeding jam to the pigs …
We can see more and more propaganda of the AFU going full “Toyota Wars” this days : the situation is wayyyy past the point 50 goods MBTs will have any kind of impact.
Anyway , without at least air cover, any heavy tank is easy game for any attack helli , an anti-tank mine magnet (Russians have some funky AT mines), a fair game for ground attack planes , and in every tight place it will attract all tandem-warhead jaywalking the hood looking for some use …
Even hit & run mission will be high risk in this context and no one is using heavy armor for spotting purpose for a reason…drones are cheaper , sat see more.
This is pure PR , expensive PR but PR anyway … the Leopard 2 is the new V2.
Giving 404 some of ISIS’s VBIED will be more efficient and will cost much less to crew for similar or even better results in the end.
I’ve been meaning to ask for ages. Where has the Russian Air Force been in this war? Sometime ago , I can’t remember who, said that the ukies still have air significant defence systems in place which have caused the rus air force to be unable to operate.
Pardon my ignorance but why haven’t Russian missiles been able to destroy the air defence systems?
One more thing. Do the Russians have anything similar to the A10 which I believe was designed to be a tank killer.
Thanks
SU25 Flanker
Not quite. The SU-27 is the Flanker. The SU-25 is ths Frogfoot. The Frogfoot was designed to provide close air support for ground troops.
Su-34.
Read the Russian MoD daily briefings on Telegram.
Su-25s and Ka-52s are constantly doing close air support in the battle area.
Su-34s and others are launching long range missile strikes at rear area targets.
Rear area targets are also attacked with cruise missile and short range ballistic missiles.
Fighter aviation is devoted to Counter Air.
It should be realised that Russia has a different doctrine for air warfare.
Those who look at Russian air activity through the prism of NATO doctrine misinterpret everything!
USSR/Russia invested heavily in ground and air launched missiles for attacking targets to the rear of the battlefield. This means they can attack these targets without having to risk bomber aircraft and their crews. This also means that the much vaunted “Air Superiority” is a much lower priority for Russia.
“The real purpose of sending this western armour to Ukraine may be to provide political cover for politicians who fear the blame game that will erupt if and when Russia wins in Ukraine.” Geoffrey Roberts in today’s Irish Times
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/01/25/germans-are-right-to-think-twice-about-sending-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine/
Two remarkable points about Geoffrey Robert’s article in the Irish Times:
1. That they published it all!
2. That it is not behind their paywall.
From the start of the invasion, the Irish Times has been an intolerant cheerleader for NATO and denier of Ukrainian fascism.
The IT faithfully reflects the approved views of the Irish political and business leadership and vested interests. To approve such an article now which would have been anathema last summer indicates a shift in the approved opinions.
There was vigorous debate about the war in its comment on articles about the war. Comments reflecting the opposing view were routinely deactivated for “violating community standards”, ha ha.
IT terminated comments on its articles last May, and comments on older article are no longer displayed. Unknown if they have been deleted.
For an example of how the IT whitewashed Ukrainian fascism, see this description of Azov militants giving a fascist Roman style salute as “being in prayer”
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/the-irish-times-view-on-the-endgame-in-ukraine-giving-putin-an-off-ramp-1.4824616
Photo captioned:
“Servicemen of Ukraine’s Azov Battalion pray in Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv on Friday.”
Comments on this editorial are no longer available.
I asked the question:
“In what religious rite of what religion is the right fist against the left chest a sign of prayer”
Amazing how few would admit the obvious, and to this day, IT has not corrected the lie in its caption.
The Russians have not destroyed the supply lines from Poland into Western Ukraine because the Russians WANT the NATO equipment to end up in the battlefield. Then they can destroy it. Multiple reasons. 1. Russia demilitarizes NATO. 2. Russia shows European civilians (French, Italian, Germans etc) how lethal Russian military assets are. Hopefully the civilians will revolt against their lying cheating governments. 3. Russia wants the USA out of European politics and military. By destroying USA military assets Russia shows how weak the US military has become and how strong Russian assets have become. And 4. Russia hopes that with the almost complete destruction of NATO assets then there will be no hot Nato war in Europe. In other words the more NATO Assets that get to Bakhmut and Zaphorizia and Odessa the better. They will all be destroyed. Much better than stopping them in western Ukraine.
In the mid 70s, the Lima Tank plant west of Cleveland was mothballed. Friends made regular runs into the place, dodging the night watchmen, and I went in with them once. Came out with a souvenir brass nozzle for a firehose. Probably cost the taxpayer $10,000 to replace it….
Larry,
An objective look at the trends suggests the US wants a bunch of dead american soldiers – as in Pearl Harbor – perhaps to rally the nation and as in WW2 begin cranking out vast numbers of arms and weapons and fighting soldiers.
Apparently no one told the emperor (who is nude) that the US sent its manufacturing base overseas (shifting power definitively to the 0.01%) and its not returning for one to several generations (it would require a decades-long industrial policy – starting with STEM not Woke at US universities and revamping high school to function – tik tok teens ain’t doing 5-axis CNCing).
And how many of today’s teens are ready for anything other than a meat grinder? In the 1920s and 30s, most teens were not obese and could shoot dinner.
I agree with you 2-day half-life – if they are to be used at all, they need to be part of an offensive before the lack of logistical support renders them useless. They will be mobilized in Poland, and then probably enter Ukraine with Poland to support converting Poland into the next Ukraine. They are too big and clunky to make it to the front, and then are too far from any spare parts and repair.
And even if the M1s take six months, Leopards and M1s in Poland are ready now – but NATO will say they are Polish, not NATO.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/42282
A whole video of Abrams tanks being destroyed by Iraqi.
i wonder if most of these were caused by very large ied. a couple of hundred lbs of explosive will make a mess out of any tank especially if it goes off underneath.
All the axis of nations working against Russia are broke. The citizens in some have even begun to revolt. The WEF Dictators in Training know they are wearing targets, lighting them up with reflectors and hoping for some other outcome, even if it is their own death. The citizens of many EU nations are also revolting . The large Nato ones have a lot of complaints.
Add to that the vaccine deaths are rising and millions know someone that was perfectly healthy before they got theirs. This is also causing large Pfizer and Moderna advertisements on the politicians that include names and addresses.
War, drugs and money. Same as it ever was. Another day, another coup on some unsuspecting country that can’t defend itself.
Per von Clasuwitz: “The art of war is to get the soldier, equipped, ready, willing and able to fight at the right place at the right time.” The title of this current fantasy should be: ”
Tanks Across the Dnieper.”
I do not know who the original author is but translated this from Bulgarian into English.
Letter from grandfather “Tiger” to his grandson “Leopard “in Ukraine
Guten morgen, mein lieben grandson! I’m so glad you decided to Drang nah Osten (go east).
First of all, take care of your health. Especially the transmission. It is the first thing to break down. It’s hard in the winter there. The transmission gets cold immediately, the oil freezes there.
You, Mein Lieben grandchild, have a good appetite – 720 liters per 100 kilometers (0.33 MPG). And anyway, who knows exactly how much you’ll need in the Russian mud? Keep in mind that Russian diesel, as well as gasoline, are not at all suitable for us.
Third, prepare for the fact that you will have to travel a lot on road hauliers. Be careful when entering or leaving.
You, grandchild of Mein Lieber, have a great width of 3.75 meters (12.4ft). And more weight too. And many bridges in this land of Barbarians will not hold you at all.
Fourth. Get ready to sit in the mud for a long time and wait to be pulled out. At this time, you will be a good target for Russian assault planes, helicopters and artillery.
And now the Russian tanks are lighter and faster. So, my grandson, watch your ass.
Now the Russians have guided missiles that can kill you from five kilometers away, and you can hit them from only three and a half kilometers away. And the armor, obviously, is better with the Russians. So take care of yourself.
Yeah, before I forget, my dementia is about to wake up. The firing speed of Russian tanks is three times higher. They have an automatic loader. And you don’t…
And the last one.
If the Russians are cornering Abramses or Challengers, don’t engage. Try to hide. They are heavier and more visible on the battlefield than you. You have the chance to die last.
You’d better not go there at all. They’ll melt you into Russian nuclear icebreakers and send them to the Arctic.
In short, my grandson, your grandmother “Panther” and I kiss you and wish you all the best. But we expect the worst. If you die, we will surely erect a monument for you on our family plot.
Germany announced that it would send 14 tanks Leopard 2 to Ukraine and allow others to do the same. Well, good.
☆
Apti Alaudinov – commander of the Special Forces “Akhmat”:
“I don’t see any difference in what equipment Ukraine’s armed forces will have – Western or ex-Soviet: in principle, it burns the same way.”
We now know the western sanctions against Russia have done more harm to the west than to Russia.
The Ukraine war appears to be doing the same. The longer is runs, the more the west depletes its arms which it no longer has the resources to replace, while Russian arms production is still ramping up.
Never interupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
I would like to add. The main reason for preserving cross-border crossings is to allow disloyal ukis to flee the country. It is clear that they will never get back. In addition, it will increase tensions in the West.
Rules based order : our rules your order
Mr. Johnson- i was listening to this duran show and they had a possible alternative opinion about the tanks and IFV being sent to ukraine through poland.
We all know that these tanks are totally unsuitable for use in east ukraine using ukrainian crews who have no idea how to man them properly and no maintenance especially when needed right know. Also the numbers make no sense.
What if these tanks are never meant to go to ukraine in the 1st place.
What if they are to be manned by NATO and US crews operating with the poles in plan b of an annexation of west ukraine to keep it out of russian hands and safeguard the kiev regime. This also would let them safeguard odessa along with the 82nd airborne divison only a few hours away in romania.
Would not be surprised if in the background this is being discussed in secret by the us, poles, ukraine and britian; especially with ukraine sending the men of fighting age from west ukraine to the front lines. Perhaps german military intelligence has caught on to this and this is the real reason they do not want to give up any tanks in their inventory to the poles . For this application the abrams and bradleys using us crews would be fine if they were only going into west ukraine and not across the dnieper river.
this is a link to the 30 minute part of the duran where it is being discussed. am surprised yt would keep this up
https://youtu.be/4XtrMST9iDQ?t=1795
just a thought
ralph
Could it be that the big discussion about a small number of tanks is just a deflection for another move?
How would Russia react if the Ukraine army attacked towns deeper in Russia?
The point seems simple to me: Poke Russia so much that Russia will start ww3 officially.
Blinken is sending the career-long mouth piece for the US State Department David Ignatius has been called in to send an urgent message to Vladamir Putin, the Security Council and the General Staff in Moscow.
Read the details here:
http://johnhelmer.net/blinken-concedes-war-is-lost-offers-kremlin-ukrainian-demilitarization-crimea-donbass-zaporozhe-and-restriction-of-new-tanks-to-western-ukraine-if-there-is-no-russian-offensive/#more-70567
@ Andy
Slavvyanagrad is just plain wrong.
Modern MBTs are formidable, when crewed by well-trained men, with a full logistics backup, air cover and artillery and infantry support.
Their modern composite armour does not protect the tracks, wheels, lower hull or engine compartment. In that respect they are no more protected than WW2 tanks.
They are vulnerable to ATGMs. If the soldiers are hidden then they get the first shot. Adios MBT. ISIS destroyed around 8 Turkish Leopard 2A4s in a couple of days in Syria.
Artillery can immobilise (“soft kill”) them. Doesn’t need to be a direct hit. The Swedes did a whole raft of tests in the 1960s. Near misses wrecked tracks, wheels, engine compartment, etc. An unmoving tank is dead. Now they can be hit with guided artillery projectiles.
IEDs and landmines.
Air launched missiles.
Specialist antitank weapons like Hermes (100Km?) or Chrysanthemum (the supersonic missile is on a raised gantry so the armoured carrier can be hidden from sight)
We won’t send offensive weapons, then they did.
We won’t send long-range weapons (m777), then they did.
We won’t send multiple missile launch systems (HIMARS), then they did.
We won’t send tanks, but they will.
No boots on the ground, but they’re already there.
Are jet fighters next? The Netherlands sound keen.
Meanwhile Europe is not just deindustrialised, but disarmed. It’s only Ramstein left now.
If Germany were still a sovereign state, Baerbock would be facing charges of treason. She clearly thinks she can get away with her attitude. After all, Merkle got away with hers for years. Von der Leyen still is.
Frau Baerbock is truly amazing.
Being Spanish, I’m used to politicians with a very very high degree of stupidity (not only in Spain, but also in Italy …)
But I think I have never seem such a … a … I cannot find the words, really.
https://annalena-baerbock.de/
annalena.baerbock@bundestag.de
Sending two dozens of tanks to Ukrainian neonazis isn’t going to change the outcome of this war. Russia along with its allies China and Iran are fighting a just war. They hold superior moral spirit and truth against the west which totally lacks those very important fundamentals. West’s moral ground can be summarized in the form of gender bender, Agenda 2030 nonsense of the WEF. No American, European, Australian, Canadian, NZ with normal IQ, given he/she is not psychologically challenged, would be willing to fight on behalf of such a balderdash posturing as NATO’s grand moral foundation. The ethical superiority enjoyed by Russia, Iran , China will assure a total victory over NATO i.e. the Axis of Mephistopheles. Western reactions in response with the ongoing war in the Ukraine, is mere theatrics aimed at prolonging the ultimate collapse of the Petrodollar system. It shows that the Anglozionist financial sham is standing on its last leg and about to fall. At this time, the NATO cabals basically have two major apparatus at their disposal that could to some extend manipulate the outcome of global events. The main one is bribing high level government officials, private NGO’s in other countries and the other one is to use nuclear bombs. West’s third tool i.e. MSM fake news has already lost its appeal for the global audience. There’s really nothing else in between these two, not even M1, Leopard tanks….
Annalena Baerbock” started a dissertation on natural disasters and humanitarian aid but did not finish it” per Wiki. It looks like she started this disaster to ” collect the material. ”
Something is seriously wrong with Annalena, like certifiably wrong. She and Herr Scholz belong on a psychiatrist’s couch.
Or on a gibbet….
She strikes me as an older Greta Thunberg: self righteous and lacking finesse and empathy; an empty glass compared to the fullness of Lavrov. A bottle of Night Train vs a bottle of Chateau Margaux.
«mr. «johnson- i listened to this interview today. this gentlemen who is totally antiwar put out a book Ukraine: The Just War – How The West Was Lost.” stating that in this war russia is in the right and had no choice but to get into it.
https://andrewcarringtonhitchcock.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Nick-Kollerstrom-Ukraine-The-Just-War.jpg
https://andrewcarringtonhitchcock.com/2023/01/25/ach-2042-dr-nick-kollerstrom-ukraine-the-just-war-how-the-west-was-lost/
https://ia801603.us.archive.org/24/items/230125-2042-dr.-nick-kollerstrom-ukraine-the-just-war-how-the-west-was-lost/230125%20%282042%29%20Dr.%20Nick%20Kollerstrom%20-%20Ukraine%20-%20The%20Just%20War%20-%20How%20The%20West%20Was%20Lost.mp3
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ukraine-Just-War-West-Lost/dp/1739999428/ref=sr_1_1?qid=1674406050&refinements=p_27%3ADr+Nick+Kollerstrom&s=books&sr=1-1
these are 2 of the reviews
5.0 out of 5 stars …a Revolutionary Act
Reviewed in the United Kingdom 🇬🇧 on 10 August 2022
Verified Purchase
We live in the age of Orwellian universal deceit. The TV and newspapers only tells one side of the story about Ukraine. Laws have been passed trying to restrict the counter-argument. Finally somebody has given us the other side. This is the first book I know of that does so. The author has a reputation for being fearless with his opinions and he does not disappoint this time. What shocked me was the scale and depth of official deception. History will eventually expose the truth and this book will be a vital document in that process. It is short and easy to read, yet passionate and informative. Highly recommended.
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Guy E. Moosburger
5.0 out of 5 stars Great piece on what’s happening or will happen and why.
Reviewed in Canada 🇨🇦 on 4 December 2022
Verified Purchase
The West are brain washed into thinking Ukraine will win. If you’re not sure what to believe pick up this little gem and see for yourself. Russia will win. Europe is drowning in their own stupidty. Biden is off eating ice cream. Nato is collapsing and its money laundering entity FTX has gone bankrupt. Ukraine officials are taking their percentage and buying properties to retire. Yes, they are going from ethnic cleansing to property bros.
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———————————————————–
these are some links about current events
https://thesaker.is/the-oldest-lie-and-why-the-end-of-the-american-empire-was-delayed/
there is a permanent cure for this behavior; i know the russians have one and we used too.
https://rumble.com/v23r7bo-world-economic-forum-declares-pedophiles-will-save-humanity.html
a hero to me
https://republicbroadcasting.org/news/utah-plastic-surgeon-allegedly-destroyed-covid-vaccines-gave-fake-shots-to-children/
https://republicbroadcasting.org/news/canada-judge-drops-case-against-guards-who-killed-a-woman-for-not-wearing-a-mask/
why football is no different than professional wrestling
https://www.thefixisin.net/the-2022-nfl-season
https://republicbroadcasting.org/news/damar-hamlin-died-on-the-field-from-the-mrna-covid-19-vaccine-fake-hamlin-double-in-the-building/
these guys and the ukraine officials who resigned are the same as far as i am concerned
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/new-england-farmer-sues-town-home-equity-theft-federal-court
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/german-foreign-minister-just-said-quiet-part-out-loud-ukraine
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/seattle-medical-examiner-running-out-space-store-bodies-due-fentanyl-overdoses-official
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/wind-turbines-are-burning-collapsing-green-energy-setback
regards,
ralph
Ralph, many thanks for the Damar Hamlin story. I was flabbergasted at the unbelievable cover-up/conspiracy very likely going on. This will be devastating and unforgivable when or if the truth is revealed.
One final comment. I will not believe the media narrative until I see a definitive interview of Damar. Media say he was here or there, but no video. There is a hospital picture. But is he brain damaged? Nine minutes to resuscitate?
The US promised Abrams to Ukraine to fool the Germans into releasing Leopards. The US then qualified their announcement by pushing the timeline to anywhere between 3months to a year or more.
The Germans have been tricked by the US into sticking their heads above the parapet, to be shot off by the Russians.
Germany’s enemy is the US; not Russia.
Germany’s enemy is Germany.
The shallow junior high level analogy they all use (Putin is Hitler in 1938) has a name.
It is an internet adages : Godwins Law:
Godwin’s law, short for Godwin’s law (or rule) of Nazi analogies, is an Internet adage asserting that as an online discussion grows longer (regardless of topic or scope), the probability of a comparison to Nazis or Adolf Hitler approaches 1.
There have been photos of Leopard tanks already in Ukraine…I suspect Ukrainian crews have been training on these tanks for months and/or NATO troops operating as PMCs are ready to roll with these Leopard and Chieftain tanks. I would be surprised if they don’t join the battle almost immediately.
Challenger 2 not Chieftain…sorry 🙂
Now this is interesting.
I want to recall the main provisions of the draft collective security treaty of November 18, 2021, which the West called “Putin’s ultimatum” and disgustedly waved away, laughed at the absurdity.
– Non-deployment by Russia and NATO countries of their armed forces and weapons on the territory of all other European states in addition to the forces that were already on this territory as of May 27, 1997.
– Exclude the deployment of medium- and shorter-range ground-based missiles in areas from which they are capable of hitting targets on the territory of other participants.
– Exclude further expansion of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine, as well as other states.
NATO countries should refuse to conduct any military activity on the territory of Ukraine, as well as other states of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia.
And now, a year later, is it still funny?
This is to the constantly raised question of why Russia is in no hurry to seize and destroy the whole of Ukraine.
Because Russia is achieving its stated goals on the territory of Ukraine, not seeking to go beyond even the eastern regions. In other words, Russia is destroying the military potential of NATO countries on the territory of Ukraine.
First, the fakir pulls out the poisonous teeth of the cobra, and only then makes him dance to the flute.
the Ukrainians say: now we want jet planes.
Just like the fisherman and his wife.
I live in Germany and I can’t believe my eyes. The corona and vaccination madness was already an insult to common sense. What we have been experiencing for 11 months is the negative culmination of everything I (and many others) have had to endure in my many decades of life.
Our government is now trying to frame the citizens with propaganda polls (alleged majority for military support of Ukraine). The political association “Freie Sachsen” (they are working towards a separation of Saxony from the Federal Republic of Germany) has submitted an urgent application to the Federal Constitutional Court: Ban on the delivery of battle tanks to the Ukraine. The Federal Constitutional Court is predominantly staffed by party soldiers who are loyal to the party line. The decision must first be accepted. I have a clear idea of the decision of the highest German court.
Interesting that this appeared on the MSM this morning.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64408145
UNESCO has made Odessa a so called protected area. It will not stop RF but it’s maybe an indicator where the next battle is to be fought.
If John Helmer’s parsing of a David Ignatius’ Jan 25 Washington Post article is as accurate as it is astonishing, the State Dept has floated a trial balloon offering terms that Russia is likely to find substantive. The trigger is a growing fear that Ukraine will not survive the Russian offensive that DC sees coming.
If Helmer is right, the US blinked (or is it Blinkened?). He says the “offer” includes:
Helmer (Ignatius) goes on:
You can read Ignatius’ WP article on Helmer’s site. http://johnhelmer.net (the article’s direct link is very long).
I’m not sure Helmer isn’t extracting more from between the lines than is actually there, but Ignatius’ article indicates that reality is surfacing in some DC circles. Of course, the SMO will continue apace, but there may be light at the end of the diplomatic tunnel.
How many rude awakenings do you require? There is no light, there is no diplomacy. There’s only deception.
During a talk at the Lowy Institute in Australia, Bill Gates rather unexpectedly calls out UA’s government as “one of the worst in the world, corrupt, controlled by a few oligarchs, to the misfortune of the Ukrainian people.”
https://youtu.be/VHdYYCQQOvU
We’ve now got two competing, mutually contradictory thematic lines in the Western media.
The original pitch that…
1. Ukraine is a freedom loving democracy, led by an extraordinary statesman, heroically defending itself against an unprovoked attack.
vs the newly introduced counter narrative that…
2. Ukraine is utterly corrupt, led by “one of the worst” govts in the world.
They can’t both be true, and they can’t both maintain momentum in the same media space. One or the other is gonna win out. That they each reflect some faction’s agenda suggests there’s a deepening schism developing at tip of the Globalist pyramid. It looks like somebody’s concluded that this doesn’t end well and is building an off-ramp. “Corruption” may be unimaginative, but it’s probably good enough for an off-ramp.
And since imbecile Baerbock just declared war, NATO article 5 is down the drain.
You don’t think for minute Stoltenberg or Austin would give the legalities 2 seconds of consideration do you?
“The Russians have not destroyed the supply lines from Poland into Western Ukraine because the Russians WANT the NATO equipment to end up in the battlefield”
Interesting! Maybe Russia wants to inflict a **psychological** defeat to NATO. Tame them and infuse into their collective brain the idea that attacking Russian army is a no-no.
Another bonus is letting NATO toys into the Ukrainian death trap is a very good way to know how they operate on a combat ground.
And knowing the degree of corruption of Ukraine, some Abrams might eventually end up intact in the hands of Russian soldiers (wink wink as Martyanov often writes).
I don’t believe the Russians want NATO weapons on the battlefield; not for one second. IMHO, that thinking/excuse making comes from the premise – deeply imbedded in some people’s minds – that the Russians are each ten feet tall and playing, minimally, 5D chess all the time and planned this entire SMO down to minute detail and, furthermore, that everything is going according to the plan. Also, that they have utter contempt for NATO leadership, weapons and military in general (see Andrei Martyanov and minions as examples of that mindset chasing its own tail). Furthermore, that they (the Russians) can fund a near perpetual war and absorb casualties endlessly, Both militarily and politically.
The Russians themselves have admitted that mistakes were made in the opening months of the conflict. They also have admitted that they thought Ukraine would quickly submit and seek negotiations. They went in way too lite and have had to call up reserves that were not already on deck, trained up and ready to go in. None of that reconciles well with 5D chess players wanting a long war. Sorry. The Russians have feet of clay like the rest of us.
“I’m sorry. Russians have clay soles like the rest of us”
No, just list how many chess grandmasters the Russians have and how many the “enlightened” West has !
If you didn’t know until now, you will be surprised !
Attila, we must bow to the wisdom of newdill, he is a self – described analyst after all.
Oh, how about that; it’s that time of night again when “grr’s” mommy is out walking the streets for for money and Grr has cut the moldy parts off the cold pizza left-overs he found in the back of the fridge, ate what was left and has now settled in to entertain himself by pestering adults on the internet.
Take my advice, “Grr”, spend your time more wisely, like studying so you can get through junior high. Maybe, just maybe, if you do, you can rise to fulfill your highest potential; say cleaning the hamster cages at the pet store or, if you really apply yourself, a sceptic tank cleaner or a gay porn industry fluffer.
No strategy is “planned to the last detail”. The strategic thinker recognizes that no battle plan survives first contact with the enemy and so he sets his forces up to take advantage of, and/or defend against, whatever the enemy throws his way.
The light forces Russia used in the early stages of the SMO destroyed the AFU as an organized fighting force by mid-April. Normally, that would be enough to cause the loser to sue for peace, but NATO started throwing every Soviet piece of kit into the fray. There was no way to re-organize the AFU to push the Russians out, but Western braintrusts believed it could still be used to exhaust the Russian effort and so “weaken Russia”.
The Russians promptly stepped back, pulled their expeditionary forces out and re-focussed on destroying the AFU’s men and materiel. The AFU, unable to act strategically, obliged and engaged in simple territorial battles along the Donbas front. Monumental destruction of AFU’s men and materiel resulted.
Having exhausted the Soviet kit, Kiev’s sponsors doubled-down and starting sending “volunteers” and ever more advanced Western materiel, but there’s no new strategy because there’s now no army. All they can do is continue trying to drag the Russians into the same quagmire they themselves blundered into months ago.
The Russians see this of course. Not because they’re ” ten feet tall and playing, minimally, 5D chess”, but because they’re paying keen attention to what the opposing force is doing, and what they’re trying to do. Most importantly, they still have all the forces they need to act strategically.
The question now is what the Russians will do. Continue to grind the newly equipped AFU further, to “weaken the West”, or put an end to the tragedy and roll across Ukraine? Col. MacGregor thinks they’re gonna roll. I’m no MacGregor so all I know is that they could if it suited their end goals, but the point of all that is that the ambiguity between the threat and action is part of the Russian strategy.
You offer a well thought out rebuttal to the conventional alt thinking.
“They also have admitted that they thought Ukraine would quickly submit and seek negotiations.”
And they were right. Ukraine DID seek negotiations. They DID agree peace deal in principle in Istanbul in late March, that is, within four weeks of the start.
Without NATO interference, the war would have been over in mid-April and hundreds of thousands of dead and maimed would still be healthy.
Russia’s error was not in their estimation of the Ukrainian capacity to resist, but in under-estimating US/UK influence and their capacity to compel the Ukrainians to fight to the last Ukrainian.
Just a thought: How do we know that NATO has not been training Ukrainian tank crews on Leopards (and Abrams, for that matter) for many months? Fact of the matter is, we don`t.
Surely it has been clear almost from the beginning of this conflict that NATO would be supplying Ukraine with all the tanks it needed. Step-by-step. Next up? Fighter jets. Followed by an endless flow of “whatever it takes” to ensure that Ukraine wins.
Like Russia, NATO and the collective west will never admit defeat, ever: By that logic alone, this is all going to end very badly.
Just an FYI on the mysterious Arestovych. Translating the notes from a recent video, it looks like he on board with the NATO game plan, so no hope he is going to settle things down. Maybe if he replaces Zelensky he won’t do crazy things like bombing the Poles, but that’s about it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzcjT32fhBs
07:43 Why give the enemy extra chances? The timing of the de-occupation of Ukrainian territories depends on the pace of Western arms deliveries;
“If Las Vegas or the bookies in London are looking for a new bet to attract gamblers they might want to offer a chance to wager how long a M1 Abrams or Leopard 2 will survive on the ground in Ukraine. I will put my money on two days. What do you think?”
You had better define “on the ground” Larry, or you are going to lose the bet, because these Abrams and Leopards will undoubtedly survive more than two days once they de-train or de-truck in Ukraine, and actually start using their tracks to get somewhere.
Most likely they will move surreptitously into Ukraine’s major urban centers,* where they can more easily hide from the prying eyes of the enemy’s satellites, and/or if detected, hug their human shields so tight, the always affable Russians will not obliterate them before they have time to declare, “I have not yet begun to fight!”
Now if “on the ground” means on the attack, as in making an attempt to punch through Russian/Wagner defensive positions to make a Deep Battle run for Sevastopol, they yeah, they probably won’t last two minutes.
The good Col. Macgregor has been trying to figure this modern war shit the last couple of months, developing theories and so on, as to what the hell good is a 21st century conventional army if can’t do anything other than sit behind a contact line, as all of its ground based mobile weapons platforms have a tendency to get smashed to bits the moment they peek their heads out and try to venture forward.
Seems to be settling on what he’s recently been calling, “the Umbrella Offensive,” an attack strategy whereby you inch forward gradually, grindingly, step by agonizing step, with all your assests, space to ground, at once remaining under “the Umbrella” at all times, as to do otherwise is to get rained on, which is a metaphor, for all blown up.
Believes the Russians are likely pop three Umbrellas here shortly, one in the south, one in the northeast, and one in northwest, the latter with the intention of interdicting the Nato supply corridor originating in Poland, which up till now, despite consisting of basically one rail and one road network, has proven maddeningly indestructable.
I think the good Colonel is not buying into the theory the Russian General Staff is of the opinion that the Ukraine General Staff is filled with morons and incompetents, if for no other reason than they all trained together at the same academies, and such stupidity would reflect badly on their alma maters.
The Ukraine General Staff will not forever aid the Russian General Staff in its recent quest to de-militarize the entire western world using only its mortars, howitzers, and super cheap suicide drones. Ukrainain generals will at some point stop smashing their heads against a wall, and will instead muster the inflow of the weapons pouring from the west for a final defense of the state, even if the sealed fate of this state, is to only be a rump one.
*So my theory on the tank’s role on the modern battlefied is this, it’s at best a mobile short range artillery piece, best suited for urban combat, in other words, street battles (and yes, I note the historic irony). That’s it. It can no longer do what is was designed to do, and that is to lead the charge, be the spearpoint of the massed offensive.
The tank would’ve already gone the way of the horse, but just like the horse, it usually takes military men three or four major wars to figure out that what used to work, no longer does.
These days we have to take pleasure in the little things in life because that’s really all that’s left. As an American consumer of Internet videos, I’m kinda looking forward to seeing that first Leopard blown to smithereens by some cheap copy of an Iranian drone ( of course, I hope its occupants make it out to run away; I’m not a ghoul). Then maybe the vids will get really engrossing and we’ll see an Abrams minus its turret beside a lonely Ukrainian road. Or, even better, perhaps the Russians will display an Abrams in the Moscow war trophy museum! I’d actually pay to see that one. (To make it totally cool, they could stand an explanatory placard beside it with a photo of Joe Biden on the ground after the bastard fell off his bicycle.)
30 M1Tanks will be 2000 tons of smoldering scrap metal in very short order.
I’ll bet the Russians will turn it into a drinking game.
Baerbock is an idiot if she thinks German tanks assaulting the Russians will go any better this time than the last time, the Russians are unlikely to have much of a sense of humor over this. I predict the Leopards won’t even make it to the front.
Of course not all might be blown up, knowing how Ukraine operates one or two might “fall off the truck” and end up being sold to some warlord in Libya.
I don’t know if you have seen this Larry;
https://gatesofvienna.net/2023/01/ethnic-cleansing-of-hungarians-in-ukraine/
Jamestown has articles going back a few years about all that. Hungarians are considered ‘Finno-Ugric’ by Ukrainians who subscribe to the Arratan ethnic theory.
If so, the Finns as next of kin are untermenschen too in the Banderite lunacy …. Something the Russophobic government of Finland SHOULD become aware of urgently. ..!
(Should have been Arattan.) Yes, the Finns, Estonians, Hungarians and Russians are all thrown into what they consider an inferior lineage. I don’t think this theory is mainstream, but it seems to have a hold on the Ukr culture.
https://www.amazon.com/Ancient-History-Aratta-Ukraine-000-BCE/dp/1503076024
Russias Marker robot will be updated to recognize and prioritize Western tanks. It’s to be tested in Donbass in February and delivered asap.
https://www.thenewsontime.com/rogozin-robot-marker-he-will-be-able-to-easily-hit-the-abrams-and-leopard-tanks/
Germany’s foreign minister Annalena Bearbock admits Germany is at war with Russia in a stunning statement at the European Counsel Meeting and she is speaking in English to people to watch it. What is next for Russia in this war with NATO and USA or what will be the actions taken by Russia next. Who Know?
This conflict between the west and Russia has been planned all along.
We’ve been seeing the movement of Abrams on train flatbeds traversing the United States for months now on YouTube videos. There are sightings now of Abrams tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles already in Poland.
This has all been part of a plan. The west has been training Ukrainian military in the complete arsenal of NATO gear and equipment for years. My bet is there are already Ukrainian military fully trained in the use of Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks standing by to take possession of these tanks as they arrive in Poland.
Again, this has all been part of the plan. The United States picked-up where Germany left off after 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as somehow sub-human. Russia and the Russians possess resources crucial for the very existence of a first world economy; vast supplies of natural resources in natural gas, coal, oil, minerals and rare earths — “in shameful abundance.” Resources the west either already has run out of or is in short supply of. The west is coming for those resources. This has always been part of the plan.
World War 3 began years, if not decades ago.
US heavy brigades have been rotating in and out of Poland for the past 3-4 years. It never seemed like a good idea to me.
Britain, not the US, took up the anti-Russian drum after May 1945. Roosevelt had been extremely friendly to Stalin. The Berlin crisis which turned the American public against the USSR was triggered by British maneuvering. The British Empire was declining but Churchill figured he could turn US industrial might against the USSR, and he proved to be right. Many people still suspect the British are pulling US strings in the 21st Century; heard recently: “America is the military arm of the British Empire.”
the King of Britain, Scotland, and Wales (and let’s not leave out New Zealand, Canada, and Australia) spoke at Davos last week, didn’t he?
“Britain, not the US, took up the anti-Russian drum after May 1945.”
I respectfully disagree.
The UK is the “Empire That Will Not Die.” It exists, like the British Monarchy, in name only, and not even that.
FDR and Churchill were both fully-aware of Stalin’s character. When FDR died, Truman, a realist, took over. But even Truman had to relieve General Douglas Macarther of command because Macarther wanted to use nukes during the Korean Conflict. Then came Eisenower, who warned the world about the dangers of the Military Industrial Complex (MIC). And look where we are today.
A hegemon needs an enemy. The Russians have served that purpose since 1945. Putin asked then President Bill Clinton if Russia could join NATO. Clinton said “No.” Of course not. A hegemon needs its enemy. Putin knows this. China knows this. The world knows this.
“Britain, not the US, took up the anti-Russian drum after May 1945.”
I respectfully disagree.
The UK is the “Empire That Will Not Die.” It exists, like the British Monarchy, in name only, and not even that.
================
You have no idea of what you are talking about. You do not have the first clue of who runs and owns the US.
I’m afraid you’re casually dismissing the reach of a major 20th Century power. The day after the war ended in Europe, Britain held sway over Libya, Egypt, South Africa, Palestine, India, Burma, Malaya, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada, to list a few–an empire in being, not merely in name. It took further decades to unravel this polity.
In the 21st Century King Charles is still the head of state of the remaining Commonwealth nations–Canada, New Zealand, Australia, and Britain–and legally owns title to all their territory. The past 3+ years has seen a shocking trampling of the liberties of the citizens of these nations by their governments. Technically they are still free peoples, but liberty which government can revoke at will is not really liberty, is it? Yet these governments seem to take the attitude that it is at their pleasure that the citizens enjoy any small freedom at all. And protests against this tyranny have been firmly crushed.
Why are the Commonwealth nations moving in lockstep toward authoritarianism? The hand of Davos Man is apparent, but what of the king? Even if his position was only titular he might still speak out on behalf of his subjects; but he rubs elbows at Davos, just as his brother fraternized with one Jeffrey Epstein, who didn’t kill himself. It seems he prefers authoritarianism.
I fear English Liberalism–Classical Liberalism, not the phony liberalism rightly denounced by Mr Putin–is dead, supplanted by paternalism at last.
https://sputniknews.com/20230126/russia-rolls-out-combat-robot-to-detect-and-destroy-leopard-2-abrams-tanks-sent-to-ukraine-1106724932.html
Russia Rolls Out Combat Robot to ‘Detect and Destroy’ Leopard 2, Abrams Tanks Sent to Ukraine
https://cdnn1.img.sputniknews.com/img/07e7/01/1a/1106724316_0:160:3073:1888_1280x0_80_0_0_76116a9e65e9b59bb21fbc17da7ca6e3.jpg.webp
On Wednesday, Washington and Berlin announced they were ready to provide Kiev with M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks in the coming months. The decisions came as Russia continues its special military operation in Ukraine.
A strike version of the Russian-made Marker robot will be capable of hitting the German and US-made main battle tanks, due to be delivered to Ukraine, Dmitry Rogozin, former director general of the Russian federal space agency Roscosmos, has told Sputnik.
He explained that the robot’s control system features an electronic catalog with images of targets in the visible and infrared ranges, which helps the Marker automatically detect the enemy’s military hardware.
https://cdnn1.img.sputniknews.com/img/07e7/01/1a/1106724537_0:0:3007:2048_1280x0_80_0_0_371a594543dd7ecac2c1fabf0219fd40.jpg.webp
He pointed out that the Marker can also prioritize the enemy’s targets when on the front.
The ex-Roscosmos chief said that in February, four Marker robots will be delivered to the Donbass region, where they are expected to enter service shortly after going through a number of tests.
https://cdnn1.img.sputniknews.com/img/07e7/01/1a/1106724767_0:0:744:501_1280x0_80_0_0_5e1cb1e90c11a9346dbf07996be9ea61.jpg.webp
Rogozin spoke after German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced Berlin’s decision to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, something that was followed by US President Joe Biden saying that Washington will deliver 31 Abrams tanks to Kiev.
The Russian Embassy in Germany warned that “this extremely dangerous decision [by Berlin] shifts the Ukrainian conflict to a new level of standoff.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov for his part told reporters that arms supplies to Ukraine by Western countries testify to their direct and growing involvement in the conflict.
We in the U.S. have AOC, and Germany has ALB. When I thought the Germans could not possibly turn any “more stupid”, ALB makes her now well talked about statement about “we are fighting a war against Russia”. I cringed when I heard that and said a silent prayer that Russia would continue to act and react with discernment. Watching Baerbock is much like watching a 16 year old high school cheerleader attempt to be popular with the college girls. Baerbock is completely lacking of political acumen and the personal bearing that is required of a politician. She can not be any thing more than the popular girl that was elected prom queen, in this case that popularity got her elected MFA of Germany. She is a fish out of water and has shown that certainly she has no political skill.
I agree with others this conflict with Russia has been planned for many, many years. It started in 2014 to be an earnest effort. Nothing but deceit from the U.S., Germany, France and Britain. However, those plans seem to have been “rent asunder” by the inept response of those four countries, along with NATO and the EU.
Had the leaders of those countries not interfered with the peace process in April of 2022 then Ukraine would still be whole and a threat to Russia. As it is now, Ukraine will never exist again after this year with the possible exception of a small Kiev oblast to be called Ukraine. If even that. After the level of deceit Russia has experienced with the U.S. and Europe, Russia can no longer let Ukraine remain intact. Scott Ritter seems to think that Russia will have a “Odessa Pause” moment and permit Ukraine to surrender and keep Odessa. Ukraine keeping Odessa would only permit a source of economic wealth for Ukraine that I rather suspect Russia would rather Ukraine not have. Ukraine will never be left in a position where it has the economical resources to threaten Russia.
As for the Abrams going to Ukraine. Due to the projected time frame to get troops trained and the tanks in place I have to wonder if this is a feign attempt by the U.S. as a show of support when the U.S. actually understands the war will likely be over before the tanks are able to be used. Those tanks will then return back to the U.S.
Latest updates from the US DoD:
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3277443/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3277910/biden-announces-abrams-tanks-to-be-delivered-to-ukraine/
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jan/25/2003149684/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-JAN-25.PDF
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3276772/pentagon-press-secretary-air-force-brig-gen-pat-ryder-holds-an-on-camera-press/
US tanks sent against Russia will be serviced by “civilian contractors” in Ukraine — who will likely be Americans.
US ret. gen McCaffrey said today, “of course the Ukrainians, with civilian contractor support, can maintain these Abrams.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/Andre__Damon/status/1618374918428848128
Brian Berlitic knows tanks. Douglas McGregor certainly does. You’re correct in your assessment as well. I don’t think those tanks will make it to Eastern Ukraine.
Epiphany…my 30+ years in the US Army have tainted my ability to accurately assess or predict a Russian SMO campaign plan.
Fact…NATOstan and Russia continue to escalate in every warfare dimension.
Assumption…neither side can “lose” the SMO too much is at stake therefore no diplomatic solution in the near term.
Time to break out the Magic 8 Ball and Ouija Board for guidance…
Ha ha.
I’m coming to the conclusion that both sides are making it up as they go – but yeah, neither side can allow itself to lose.
“Time to break out the Magic 8 Ball and Ouija Board for guidance…”
Too funny.
This has been uquestionably the weirdest war ever fought on this planet. There may have been weirder wars fought on other planets, but since we have no knowledge of those wars, at least publicly, we can only assess our own.
It started to become apparent to me on Day 3 or 4 of this SMO, that this could turn out to be a war like none other in terms of weirdness.
Anderson Cooper of CNN was interviewing former four star General David Petraeus, and he asked the General if the Russians and their menacing tank forces could be stopped, in their tracks so to speak, with Molotov Cocktails, and David Petraeus said yes, he believed they could, but only if these tanks were attacked from behind.
You see, if you attack the tanks from the front, the General continued, it is unlikely that you will get within throwing distance, as that’s where the machine guns are usually pointing. You must sneak in from behind Anderson, to be effective.
And Anderson Cooper of CNN sat there beaming, so proud that a battlescared warrior of 37 years would bestow upon him, such tank killing wisdom.
Please have a look at the comments under The Daily Telegraph’s Live Uki update.
One presumes that they are mostly bots and perhaps fro the UK’s 77th Brigade but what astounds me is the level of hate that people seem to feel.
This all reminds me of “Oceania has always been at war..”
Have we been under one big Psyop for the last few years? bloody feels like it.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/26/russia-ukraine-war-news-live-tanks-us-germany-biden/
How humiliating for the Germans to be pressured into giving in.
And that just after they indicated that they wanted to buy NG from Russia after the war is over.
Russia is still pumping gas to Europe as we speak, Rhodok, supplying rare earth to the West via China and one can buy share in Martin Lockheed on the Petersburg exchange, funny world we live in, don’t you think?
I even heard (was it Bloomberg ?) that uranium ore is still being supplied to the US by Russia until now… Dunno if it’s so… How is it possible ?
Yes, they are still fulfilling contracts.
Re: stock exchanges; imo this shows that some oligarchs still have (political) power. They better enjoy it while it lasts.
Je ne crois pas pas que la “fermeture” des ambassades russes aux Etats-Unis et en Europe ou – PIRE – la RUPTURE des relations diplomatiques entraîneraient de facto la GUERRE … Depuis 1959 et 1979, les relations diplomatiques sont rompues avec Cuba et l’Iran … Cela n’a pas entraîné la guerre … “CHAUDE” … De même, depuis 1953, un statut quo ante règne entre les “deux Corée” … C’est que … MËME les Etats-Unis … même le RU … même la France mesurent, en dépit de leur PARANOÏA (et celle de leurs “élites”) qu’il y a, avec la Russie (et la Chine), nations NUCLEAIRES comme elles, UNE “ligne rouge” à ne JAMAIS franchir …
Dès lors, ils pourront livrer TOUS les chars “Abrams”, “Leopard”, “AMX” … TOUS les canons HIMARS et Caesar … TOUS les missiles … NON nucléaires … possibles et imaginables … ils pourront DECHAÎNER la RAGE des Polonais et des Baltes aux fin “d’affaiblir la Russie (“bonne chance” pour eux !) … ils SAVENT très bien que la Russie n’HESITERA PAS à déchaîner le FEU nucléaire si elle se sent DIRECTEMENT menacée dans on intégrité … Il est donc possible … et même probable qu’un “statut quo ante” prévaudra en Ukraine (les limites restant à définir) … sur le dos de l’Europe … qui, dans sa LÂCHETE et son HYPOCRISIE, ne recueillera que ce qu’elle aura MILLE FOIS MERITE !!!
Surtout que les Etats-Unis ont à “sauver” leur SACRO SAINT “dollar” que la Russie, d’accord avec ses alliés des BRICS et autres “aspirants” et “sympathisants”, est en train de déployer … Cra, dans cette “GUERRE”, c’est CELA qui intéresse les Etats-Unis … au même titre que l’ECRASEMET économique de cette MINABLE “Europe” … Allemagne en tête !!!
Q: Why did the US push so hard to get Germany to gove tanks?
A: because now Germany is committed. Previously they were merely contributing.
Huh? What’s the difference between “contribution” and “commitment”? The difference is illustrated by a breakfast of bacon and eggs. The hen contributes; the pig is committed.
Poor Germany.
Since the German foreign minister has openly declared that Germany is at war with Russia, the Russian Duma should openly declare that Russia is now in a state of war with Germany. Russia should recall all diplomatic personnel from Germany and close the embassy. Think that will get the German people’s attention?
I suspect that these tanks and other weapons are actually promotional items to the NATO force (Poland) to occupy and stabilize Galicia when the Russians have taken what they want.
I suspect NATO (Poland) “to continue the fight” which will actually be an occupying activity and not a threat to Russia.
Poland gets to look like the NATO protector, gets control of Galicia back and the Russians couldn’t care less.
Komsomolskaya Pravda (Russian news channel meant for young adults) again has issued a juicy article comparing Western with Russian armor https://www.kp.ru/daily/27457/4712023/
How Russia will stop the NATO tank armada in Ukraine: “Leopard” against T90M “Breakthrough”, “Abrams” against General Frost
Military observer Viktor Baranets said that Russia can oppose NATO tanks in Ukraine
“IRON ZOO”
So, for the first time since the Great Patriotic War, German tanks will be thrown against our army. I even wonder if they will cover the crosses on them? Or vice versa – will they finish drawing the SS lightning bolts and the fascist runes of the Ukrainian national battalions?
The United States and other NATO countries have promised Ukraine hordes of “armor” – tanks, infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and armored personnel carriers. Some Americans are already preparing 31 Abrams tanks, about 100 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and about the same number of Stryker armored fighting vehicles for shipment to Kyiv. Together, this iron alone is already being recruited for a motorized infantry division!
And also the US colonies in Europe – the Poles, the British, the Germans, the Spaniards, the Danes, the Dutch, the Norwegians also promise to “chip”. The pooling of just one tank “Leopard” will pick up another two hundred.
The Germans are already shipping a dozen and a half of their Leopards, the British promise to transfer 14 Challengers, and the French – about 30 modern Leclercs. Moreover, they decided to sell tanks to Ukraine or donate them not only to NATO countries (out of 30 there were 12 of them), but also to their allies – Australia, South Korea, Japan … So it is still impossible to accurately calculate all of its number.
But it is already clear that the request of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny – “give me 300 tanks and 600-800 infantry fighting vehicles and I will be able to attack, including the Crimea”, – it seems that NATO will fulfill it. Biden even let it slip when announcing the supply of Abrams: “Ukraine promised to attack.”
Somebody in the West has already called this whole collection of combat vehicles a “tank coalition”. And, of course, it should not be underestimated. But no one is going to raise their hands in advance. Let’s take a better look – how can we stop this NATO tank armada? Can our tanks or other Russian weapons destroy it?
IS THE DESCENDANT OF HITLER’S “TIGER” SO TERRIBLE
If we evaluate the tank “zoo” promised to Kyiv, then the main threat to us will come from the German “Leopards”.
Judging by the name of this car, it grew up in the same German “menagerie” as the “Tigers” with “Panthers”, which our grandfathers burned well on the fields of the Great Patriotic War. “Liver sausage” (as the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin called German Chancellor Scholz), as we see, could not resist the pressure of the United States. Scholz initially said that German tanks on the territory of the former USSR would cause “bad associations.” And now I’ve changed my mind. And he sends “Leopards” to Ukraine with the same German crosses on the sides. These tanks are even made at the same factory where Tigers and Panthers were once riveted.
Well, what kind of animal is this – a modern German “cat”?
The Germans believe that their modern “Leopard” is the best in the world and has no equal.
Although, unlike our T-90, it has a much lower degree of protection (we’ll talk about our car later).
The main armament of the Germans is a 120 mm smoothbore gun. Aimed firing range – 3.5 km, in motion – 2.5 km. The sight for this tank was designed by Zeiss. However, it may not be needed. Fire control systems only allow the gunner to select a target and place a marker on it. The tank will do the rest.
Engine “Leopard” – 1500 hp. With a weight of 55 tons on the highway, the tank can be accelerated to 72 km / h, and in the fields – up to 40 km / h.
But the Leopard also has its drawbacks.
The tank is large and harder to “hide” than Russian vehicles.
The “Leopard” has a large gun mantlet. Hitting it does not leave the tank without a gun.
And a huge gunner’s sight, which creates a vulnerable zone in the frontal armor.
Another disadvantage is the general booking. The most vulnerable is the hull, and the strongest place is the left side of the forehead of the tower.
In general, this is a very serious machine, the combat capabilities of which cannot be belittled. Well, how does its main competitor, our T-90, look next to the Leopard?
“LEOPARD”: WILL OUR T90 “BREAKTHROUGH” BREAK THE GERMAN “CAT”?
The Russian modernized T-90 tank (aka Breakthrough) is far superior to the main German Leopard in terms of protection and armament. The only thing the T-90 loses in is in the power plant – the engine power is less than that of the German – 1100 “horses”. But, on the other hand, it is also lighter – weight – up to 48 tons.
The advantage of the Russian tank is in the power of the gun – it is 125 mm in caliber. And the T-90 can conduct aimed fire at a distance of 5 km, almost twice as far as the Leopard. In this case, the German tank may not have time to approach the Russian one on the battlefield.
The T-90 has powerful anti-projectile armor.
But in addition to traditional armor and dynamic protection, the tank is equipped with the Shtora-1 complex, which is protection against anti-tank guided missiles. There is also a system for installing curtains of external camouflage.
Among the Russian tanks already in service, the most protected is the T-90M. The frontal armor of its turret can withstand the most sophisticated American shells from the Abrams tanks.
WHO ELSE IS IN THE STEEL ARMADA?
Who else besides “Leopards” can appear on the battlefield in the Ukrainian steppes? What are their strengths and weaknesses?
Let’s take a quick look at them.
“ABRAMS”
US tank “Abrams”.
This is a very formidable opponent.
Advantages:
– High rate of fire of 105 mm cannon – up to 10-12 rounds per minute.
– Powerful armor of the frontal part of the car.
– Navigation and identification system “friend or foe”. The crew sees through space satellites on their electronic map all the tanks on the battlefield, and most importantly, which of them is their own.
– Ammunition is stored in a secure compartment. This increases the survivability of the vehicle and crew.
– Powerful engine – 1500 hp The gas turbine provides fast start and acceleration.
– Modern electronics, excellent means of observation.
Disadvantages:
– Sides with weak armor, vulnerable even to old grenade launchers. And the back of the tank – even for BMP guns.
– No guided weapons unlike most modern tanks (which reduces the range of fire)
– It is possible to defeat the tower of the auxiliary power unit at the stern even with a heavy machine gun.
– The inability to control the anti-aircraft machine gun from the tower.
– Easily hit from above by precision-guided munitions.
WHAT DO THE EXPERTS SAY ABOUT THE AMERICAN?
“Abrams” is a serious, but extremely heavy car, heavier than all its “classmates”. Weight reaches 68 tons.
The Americans claim that thanks to this, the Abrams is better protected. His armor is considered the best in class (well, the Americans have everything “the best in the world”). But it is mainly on the front of the tank. And anti-tank missiles are used, as a rule, from the side. Where is the thinner armor. For example, Yemeni Houthi rebels shot down at least 20 Abrams.
Due to its heavy weight, the tank has the smallest power reserve, it is extremely voracious.
Of the significant advantages of “Abrams” – its armor-piercing shells are more effective, they were developed recently, and ours – back in the USSR.
The big advantage of Russian tanks is that they are two to three times cheaper! The export value of the T-90S is $2.5 million, and the T-90MS is up to $4 million.
At the same time, new Western tanks cost at least $6 million. “Abrams” – about $8-9 million.
And, finally, it is not clear how “Abrams” will behave in the conditions of Ukraine. Until now, they have only been tested in combat in the Middle East. In the sands And in Ukraine now – winter, snow, ice or impassable mud. A video is circulating on the Internet of how the Abrams cannot drive up a snow-covered hill and slides back.
However, when the earth dries up and hardens in the spring, “Abrams” can frolic … But! One of the leading Russian military experts, Viktor Murakhovsky, is convinced that NATO tanks are ill-suited for fighting in Ukraine:
– 55% of the territory of Ukraine is considered a closed area with a line-of-sight range of less than 500 meters. Distances up to 2000 and 2500 meters account for only 16% of the territory. In addition, not all tanks of NATO countries, unlike Russian ones, are equipped with dynamic protection against cumulative ammunition. Given these two factors, Western tanks will confidently break through from Russian guns.
“MARDER”
German combat armored vehicle “Marder”
Advantages:
– Strong armor for this class of vehicles. It is designed to protect against the 30 mm Russian guns that are on our main BMP-2s.
– Good cross-country ability and maneuverability.
– Decent weapons – 20 mm automatic cannon, machine gun and anti-tank missiles.
Disadvantages:
– The machine is heavy – up to 33 tons.
– The armor on the sides deprived the landing force of the opportunity to fire from the vehicle.
– Very expensive and difficult to maintain.
“BRADLEY”
Infantry fighting vehicle “Bradley” (USA)
Advantages:
– Experience has shown that the “aluminum” armor of the vehicle is reliable and can withstand Soviet 30-mm shells.
– The 25 mm automatic cannon allows you to effectively deal with lightly armored targets and provide fire support to infantry.
– The Bradley has a decent set of TOW homing missiles capable of hitting any spotted tank within a 4km radius.
Disadvantages:
– High maintenance cost.
– The machine is heavy – 35 tons. In terms of mass, it approaches tanks.
– Poor patency and stability.
– The number of paratroopers – 6 people with 3 crew members – the ratio is nowhere worse.
– Compared to our infantry fighting vehicles, the car is hefty and this is a disadvantage on the battlefield, this cannot be taken away.
“STRIKER”
“Stryker” – US armored fighting vehicle
Advantages:
– Armor protects the crew from 14.5 mm bullets from the side and stern and 30 mm shells from the forehead.
– Bulletproof tires are equipped with a pumping system.
– The system of digital data exchange between machines and units. Immediately 7 (seven!) Periscopes and a display of thermal imaging and video cameras.
Disadvantages:
– Too large dimensions with small volume inside.
– Armor does not “hold” modern anti-tank weapons.
“CHALLENGER”
The Challenger is the main British tank.
Advantages:
– One of the most protected tanks in the world.
– Improved turret design (reduced radar visibility).
– 120 mm caliber gun with chrome plating of the bore, which increased its resource.
Disadvantages:
– Low reliability of the machine.
– The inconvenience of the crew.
– Archaic fire control system.
“LECLAIR”
The main French tank “Leclerc”
Advantages:
– Maneuverability thanks to the most powerful 1500-horsepower V-8 engine and automatic transmission.
– A high degree of system automation (electronic filling – half the cost of the tank).
– Booking is modular, which simplifies the replacement of damaged elements.
– The roof of the tower is seriously protected.
– The fire control system takes into account all possible corrections, including the bend of the barrel.
Disadvantages:
– The car is capricious, electronics often fails.
Now the French army has 256 tanks, but only 42 of them are “on the move”, the rest are mothballed, because there is no money to maintain them.
– There is no dynamic protection (the French refused it, arguing that it was a danger to their own infantry).
– The “Leclerc” has a stabilized 120-mm smoothbore gun, which gives a higher initial velocity of the projectile, but the gun’s resource is only 400 shots.
WHAT WE WILL ALL THIS BEAT
How can we destroy all these Abrams, Leopards, Challengers and LeClairs. Well, along with them – the whole “brood” of NATO infantry fighting vehicles.
Our modern T-90 tank immediately suggests itself. Well, and the modernized T-72B3.
But a tank duel, when a tank drives out against a tank, as on the Kursk Bulge, is a rarity in modern battles. All this will be done in the course of a general battle, under the cover of our BMPT tank support vehicles with the formidable name “Terminator” (it has 4 Ataka anti-tank missiles with laser guidance and 2 grenade launchers).
Dangerous for the latest NATO tanks and Russian armor-piercing projectiles “Lead-1” made of uranium alloy. They are capable of penetrating 700 mm of steel armor (this is the “forehead” of the Abrams turret). And already less protected tanks – “Leopard”, “Challenger” or “Leclerc” will be hit even more often. The Russian army now has about 2,000 tanks that can use such shells.
Well, what else will we use to “spoil Western military property”?
EXPERT OPINION
Alexander Kochetkov, reserve colonel, design engineer:
– We have an impressive “set” of anti-tank weapons. But most of them are already half a century old.
For example, the 2A46 gun (which was put into service in 1970) or the Rapira anti-tank gun (created in the late 1960s). You will laugh, but with skillful use, shells from them can “leak through the barrel” of the most modern NATO tanks.
There are, of course, other means to combat the Abrams and Leopards. They can even be hit head-on by Vikhr-1 anti-tank missiles, which are on Ka-52 helicopters. They are capable of penetrating armor up to 1200 mm. And there are also Ataka-V missiles that can penetrate up to 1000 mm of armor.
Serious danger for NATO “piece of iron” – and anti-tank complex “Kornet-D1”. For example, the BMP-2M launches its missiles in one gulp. As a result, the active defense of the enemy tank will shoot down the first missile, and the second one will hit the target!
Our hand-held grenade launcher RPG-30 “Hook” works according to the same scheme for combat at short distances, up to 200 meters. He’s not bad for fighting Bradleys, Strikers or Marders.”
We have both a set of reliable “oldies” and more or less modern means: “Bassoon”, “Baby”, “Competition”, “Metis”, “Storm” …
And this, without taking into account promising developments that are being prepared for adoption right now at an accelerated pace. The situation calls for…
HOW TO PLUG “HOLES”
And here the question inevitably arises: is it possible to destroy NATO tanks even on the way to the front line? A tank is not a matchbox, it is difficult to hide it.
However, it is not so easy to hit the echelons with military equipment or highways with tractors with Caliber. “Calibers” hit standing targets, not moving ones.
Is there really no solution to the problem? Maybe there is. This includes massive strikes against large railway junctions, through which the trains will go from the West to Ukraine. And, finally, the release of sabotage groups that will derail trains with military equipment. The situation will inevitably force us to look for the most effective options. And the goal is clear – to make NATO deliveries to Ukraine meaningless.
WHEN THE OFFENSIVE
Question of the day: when can a NATO tank armada reach the battlefield? It is already slipping into Poland in small batches. Ukrainian crews are being trained…
Recently, a Polish officer “on camera” admitted that his colleagues were being persuaded to sign a contract – to go to fight in tanks in Ukraine. There are few who wish. But the signal is alarming…
It is obvious that the Ukrainian generals (and their advisers from the US and Britain) will not “smear the armor” over all 1,000 kilometers of the contact line. They create an “iron fist” or 2-3 “fists” in the most important areas. The most obvious is in the Zaporozhye direction (with an eye to get closer to the Crimea). When Ukraine will launch the offensive promised to it – by spring or summer, it is still difficult to say.
Most likely, when thousands of Ukrainian warriors finish their training abroad, and all the military equipment promised to Kyiv will be in the combat zone.
WHAT IN THE RESULT
And here the central question arises: do we have enough forces to stop this tank wedge? Break up?
Everything depends on our readiness to meet the enemy.
Remember how a year ago they were afraid of Turkish Bayraktar drones? They seemed to be the king of PR and masters of the battlefield. But, having met with a trained military force in the NVO zone, they were quickly blown away. Who remembers them now? They are not heard.
In the same way, Abrams, Leopards and other Bradleys are now being promoted. The Russian army has the opportunity to “zero out” the glory of this NATO iron zoo.
Everything depends on ourselves.
From a simple Russian soldier and Russian officer.
Fascinating analysis. Thank you.
The Abrams tank carries “[a} total of 55 rounds . . . for the main gun, including 44 rounds stored in the turret bustle and 11 rounds stored in protective containers inside the hull.” — military-today.com/tanks/m1_abrams.htm
Fine. Sure. It may fire “up to 10-12 rounds per minute,” but it is out of ammo in 60-minutes of continuous firing.
Not to worry, it will run out of gas before that happens
Excellent analysis! Thank you!
A question, what is your view on the necessity of the Abrahms using depleated uranium ammunition? I have noted this on another site-whether this is Putin’s position at present or not is not clear:
quote:
This is FLASH TRAFFIC: Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of the Russia Delegation to the Organization for Security and Coorperation in Europe (OSCE) has just publicly thrown down the nuclear gauntlet to the collective west, in an official statement:
Gavrilov said that he has been instructed by his government to announce “We know that the Leopard-2 tank, as well as the Bradley and Marder infantry fighting vehicles, are armed with uranium-core armor-piercing projectiles, the use of which leads to [radioactive] contamination of the area, as happened in Yugoslavia and Iraq.
If such shells are delivered to Kyiv, we will consider this as the use of dirty nuclear bombs against Russia, with all the ensuing consequences.
end quote
War thunder wiki also provides some easy to read stats and simulated strategies.
https://wiki.warthunder.com/Leclerc
What is Poland’s 300,000 mobilization for? Could they be planning on invading and taking control of Western Ukraine? Would they be bold enough to do this without reaching some agreement with Russia? Is it possible to save face they are going to secretly reach an agreement to split East and West? Have Poland take over the West and let Russia keep the East? To me this seems to be the only way to settle the matter without starting WW3. The West could trumpet how they saved Western Ukraine with their bold actions without telling the public they secretly negotiated a settlement.
Gold Hoarder,
Why would Russia allow NATO to set up shop and missiles (maybe some nuclear) in western Ukraine? Seems unlikely as NATO would certainly use the opportunity to rebuild an army of sheep-dipped NATO soldiers and recruited European neo-Nazi’s to resume the war in a few years. Its not as if the west is agreement capable.
Right now, Russia has a great advantage – in several years, some of the west available industrial military production will be un-mothballed.
And recall, the economic war is the big picture.
The integration of real time aerial surveillance…tied into strike systems at the sub unit level is what is morphing into the current tactics….it is thorough and incremental. Each platoon has their own drone….tied into their weapons DET… automatic grenade launchers or medium mortars targeting individual riflemen…. company drones covering deeper and tied into assault guns or artillery… battalion drones targeting even deeper….it’s sureal. Eventually Electronic warfare jamming technology will make these tactics non effective until the ground control element is removed and AI systems take over….btw manned aircraft will also be obsolete with sentient AI control of individual airframes capable of hyper Sonic flight and manoeuvr that would kill a human driver. After reading the weight limits and logistical train needed to support the Abrams MBT series….I see why the Leopard is used pretty much by everyone else….and can only imagine the true amount of overall commitment in supply and logistics for those 1000 Abrams sitting in Romania. Just watched a webcast from Colonel McGregor where he alluded to a Soros document.
This is the cruz of it all. The world is drawn up in a battle between Globalist forces and Nationalists
https://thesaker.is/douglas-macgregor-a-huge-offensive/
Certainly Russia has already a strategy to fight these Tank’s deliveries. What impress me at most is the hypocrisy of the west media, always defending the wrong side.
The US Marines have a chant;
“Killing tanks is fun & easy”
Russian language RT often passes on news info from Western sources. Here’s something from Newsweek https://russian.rt.com/inotv/2023-01-26/Newsweek-amerikanskie-toplivnie-borovi-ochen
Newsweek: American “fuel hogs” are very voracious, and this could be a big problem for Ukraine
Despite the firepower, speed, and armor, the Abrams that Washington has promised Kyiv have one significant drawback. According to experts, the gas turbine engines of American tanks “greedily absorb” fuel, so they need a huge supply chain to continuously recharge, writes Newsweek.
National Security Council spokesman John Kirby discussed with reporters Washington’s recent decision to transfer 31 M1 Abrams tanks to Kyiv. Among other things, questions were raised about certain problems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine may have when using these armored vehicles, writes Newsweek.
Kirby stated that the Abrams use a gas turbine engine that needs a certain type of fuel. Therefore, according to the official, the United States needs to ensure its uninterrupted delivery to Ukraine.
In an interview with Newsweek, retired U.S. Army Major John Spencer agreed with Kirby’s argument. “ Refueling will be a problem for Ukraine. The M1 engine can indeed run on a variety of fuels, but I remember they only ran on aviation kerosene ,” he said.
Spencer added that even if the Armed Forces of Ukraine have other tanks capable of running on diesel, Zelensky’s army could still have problems. “ In Ukraine, there are generally problems with fuel, even if it is ordinary diesel. When I was there in July, I saw long lines of cars and empty gas stations amid non-stop Russian attacks on infrastructure ,” he noted.
Professor and chair of the political science department at Northwestern University, William Reno, told Newsweek that the Abrams could run on JP-8 kerosene, which is commonly used by US and NATO military forces. Therefore, fuel availability may not be such an ” insurmountable ” barrier after all.
At the same time, Reno drew attention to the fact that because of his exorbitant appetite, the Abrams received the nickname “fuel hog”. However, according to him, high consumption is a necessary condition for the tank to be able to ” accelerate faster and gain ‘cruising’ speed .”
Associate professor of history at Cornell University in Washington, David Silby, also noted this feature of the Abrams. “ The main thing is that the engine greedily consumes fuel ,” he told Newsweek.
According to Silby, the fuel consumption of the Abrams is between 1.5 and 3 gallons per mile. At the same time, the expert emphasized that the assessment is given in “gallons per mile”, and not in the more familiar “miles per gallon” format for most cars.
“ This means that the Abrams needs a huge supply chain for a continuous supply of fuel. In this regard, it is inferior to other Western tanks, but not by much ,” he said.
U.S. Marine Corps Captain and former State Department official Matthew Hoch told Newsweek that the Abrams is “the king of the battlefield ” in terms of firepower, speed and armor. But, in his opinion, this “king” requires not only special fuel.
“ They weigh 70 tons. There is only a certain amount – and certain types – of equipment that can carry these things ,” Hoch said, adding that Russian tanks are about 25 to 30 tons lighter than Abrams.
In addition, according to Hoch, training Ukrainian personnel to operate the Abrams will also take considerable time. And this is not to mention the ability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to provide fuel not only for tanks, but also for all other vehicles that need it.
Nevertheless, Spencer assured Newsweek that Ukraine – with the support of its allies – will overcome any such difficulties. “ Despite all these obstacles, I am sure that there are plans to overcome them ,” he suggested.
‘The conclusion is irresistible that the military themselves know next to nothing about logistics’. During the Cold War, the US moved its strategic bombers out of Europe on the premise that they were too close/vulnerable on the ramp to a Soviet first strike. Everybody goes off on ‘battlefield’ capability, but, at some point, it’s easy to imagine that all these wonderful tanks will have to get parked somewhere or moved along in a line to a battle fomation of any use.
A tank duel? Or a herd providing a large target?
” … it’s sureal.”
It is. The most available video of this war by far, probably outstrips all other categories combined, is of Russian mortars and howitzers drone hunting Ukraine “trench” defenders.
Russian drone overhead, usually no more 5 or 6 Ukies down below, most often curled up in a fetal postion in a foxhole as they steadfastly defend a treeline that stretches for hundreds of meters, as incoming Russian artillery rounds seek them out, but seldom find them.
No wonder the Russians have fired how many millions of artillery shells up until this point?
One looks upon this activity and wonders what the hell is going on. This is what is being sold to the public an existential war to the death in the 21st century, this is what it looks like?
Why are the Russians not simply rolling over these mostly empty “positions,” and if they can’t because of … reasons, why are they not rocketing this helpless enemy and simply exterminating him, and THEN rolling over these “positions” as if they are no longer exist, for simple reason, they no longer do.
There is still no video evidence that I am aware of a Tos 1 thermobaric strike where more than 6 rockets were involved, and even the scant evidence for these “6 packs” is inconclusive as to what region of the world the strike is taking place, such is the careful nature of the editing of the three or four videos that have been released so far.
Fill up the 32 bay pods on half a dozen Tos 1s, fire em off, cut a hole 5 miles wide in the enemy’s front, advance, and then do it again. If you want a bigger hole, use a dozen Tos 1s. If you want depth, which you should if you are a both a smart and patriotic soldier, use your longer range rocket systems in conjuction with the Tos 1s.
Fire multiple salvos if you want to achieve total local overkill, and thereby insure you will suffer zero percent casualities as you proceed. And so on.
Win the kinetic aspect of this war tomorrow, which would allow you to move on undistracted to the greater geo-political part, if that is truly your intention.
Note: This come as a shock to everyone, but the Russians do have long range rocket systems much like the 27 HIMARS that have somehow made their way into Ukrainian hands and been used by them to TREMENDOUS effect.
The 27 HIMARS. They should make a movie starring Keanu Reeves. HIMARS does seem to be the one thing both sides agree on. Small in numbers at the outset and quickly reduced thereafter, they were – and still are? – able to stir up a remarkable degree of consternation!
How many long range rocket systems do the Russians have that are at least the equal of HIMARS but in most if not all cases, much, much deadlier. Several hundreds?
It’s been a weird, weird war, that’s for sure, but one might expect this actually, if this were a war, not between neo-liberal globalists and nationalists, but only between different factions of neo-liberal globalists.
Just like the second blade runner movie….the “car” had its own sentry drone and I can envision every IFV having its own eyes in the sky….the TOS barrages have been 6 rockets that is all I have seen…some times mixed with GRAD or other rocket artillery..i have seen evidence of possible and probably asphyxiation of troops in trenches and individual fighting positions from the TOS…the mixing of rockets is strange because the blazing sun is not allocated to conventional artillery units. But 6 rockets is enough to flatten 5 acres and most of the Ukrainian troop concentrations in drone footage are small. I suspect the small commercial drones used by smaller Frontline units are not classified and therefore imagery is disseminated freely but the large enemy concentrations are being hit by large complicated weapons systems and thus are being observed with space based electro optical instruments….I bet they picking up the hyper Sonic and big strategic weapons.
It looks like the Ukies are going to be getting the monkey M-1s. They’re fine tanks but nothing extraordinary. Used correctly as part of a larger US combined arms force, they’d be formidable. And don’t kid yourselves, American equipment is very very good. But it is designed to be used as part of a combined arms force by the richest and most logistically advanced army in the history of the earth. Not in piecemeal fashion by an ad hoc force of half trained conscripts.
American tank crews are the best trained on earth. And it isn’t so much in the gunnery and all that. The effectiveness of a tank crew and the tank itself always comes down to how well they can keep it running. American crews excel at that. Are taught that. And take great pride in it. In WW II a Sherman that would run was a better tank than a Panther with a broken transmission. And in the Ukraine, a simple T-72 will be better than an M-1 manned by Ukies who can’t or won’t keep in running.
A tank, any tank, no matter how good it is on paper is only as good as its crew. An M-1 with a thrown track and a crew that can’t or won’t get out, break track, and get that thing running is simply an artillery target. You just can’t imagine how much stuff there is to go wrong on a tank. It is almost against the laws of nature that 70 tons of metal moves at 40 mph. They break down constantly and an M-1 has to be refueled every six to eight hours or heavy use. A tank platoon will use two complete HEMMT tankers of fuel per day if driven hard.
Tomorrow is the International Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Holocaust. On January 27, 1945 Auschwitz was liberated by the Red Army. In the Russian News Channel Vesti there appeared today an article https://www.vesti.ru/article/3169355 which contains quite a lot of hidden stinging references to the ‘denazification’ goal of the SMO in Ukraine.
For example: “And on the eve of the International Day of Remembrance of the Victims of the Holocaust, which is celebrated on the anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz by Soviet troops, new information about the atrocities of the Nazis and Polish collaborators in this death camp was made public.”
Notice the special mention of ‘Polish collaborators’.
The Vesti article ends as follows: “They took the camp with fights and losses. Now there is a museum. This is the territory of Poland, the de-occupation of which cost 600 thousand lives of Soviet soldiers. Every year, a commemorative event dedicated to the anniversary of liberation is held in the former camp. The ambassador of Russia traditionally spoke at it, as the legal successor of the USSR, the country that made the main contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany.
And now museum director Piotr Tsiwinski is arrogantly arguing that Russia needs to do some soul-searching in order to gain access, as he puts it, to the gatherings of the civilized world. Even without a deep analysis of this statement, we can state that it is false. Russian diplomats were not given the floor in January last 2022, and this was even before the start of the special operation. The film crew of the Rossiya TV channel was in the camp in general in 2020. I had to pay money for the possibility of filming, and representatives of the museum categorically refused interviews.”
Just as we are willing to “fight to the last Ukrainian”, so are we willing to “fight to the last European”.
I am reminded of the scene in ‘Die Hard’, where the gung-ho FBI agent is informed that a helicopter assault on the roof will result in 15-20 dead hostages “tops”.
“I can live with that.”
The U.S. ruling class does not care about Ukrainian lives, European lives, or for that matte,r American lives if it comes down to it. As I’ve posted before, they only care about maintaining global hegemony, aka “Full Spectrum Dominance”. If that means everyone (except them, of course) has to suffer or die, so be it.
I can think of a dozen different ways short of a direct nuclear confrontation with Russia that the U.S. can do to try to weaken those who oppose us. I hesitate to share them. Let’s just say any non-nuclear country that doesn’t fall in line risks being sent back to the stone age.
This is Game of Thrones level shit. Cersei has no problema blowing up the Sept.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHYL-uiLJ14
Is any major media outlet in US asking in the boardroom what the heck is the real story in Ukraine? The deaths, resignations , and firing of staff around Zelensky are an obvious indicator that a complete FUP is going to blow. Are the tech executives so naive that no one will step up and say wait a minute Joe, Barack-what is going on?
I guess they are too young and too undereducated in History to understand the haze of war. Maybe it will be Obama who green lights the media. He is enough of a narcissist to make sure he implicates everyone but himself. Challenge is I do not see Putin giving any slack to make Obama look good. Trump should come out and say it like only be can. “This is a clusterfk.”
He will proven correct if that means anything.
I want the entire world to see how NATO’s top tanks fare against Russian federation war machine.
Enjoy the show, war thunder.
Is this true? Does anyone know?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sExRJIy2edE
Those guys need to replace rubber pads with cleats (they could leave the desert camo on).
https://www.sfsa.org/tutorials/ice_cleat/default.htm
Thanks, just s.
President Putin once said that the next war with the west would not be fought on Russian soil.
Larry, the point of all these promises could be just this. They KNOW that they do not have to keep those promises because by the time the promises are due for delivery there will be nobody to receive them.
It might be just that they have secretly planned a scenario that involves assassination of Zelensky by one of the people he has sacked so that the Kiev government is in unmitigated chaos. Whoever becomes a temporary leader then sues for unconditional surrender. The moment the army receives the order to retreat, they stage a coup, execute the temporary leader and emit verbal fire and brimstone about treason by the political class. But by that time all the newly acquired Russian territories are full secured and the chaos in the rump Ukraine is being exploited by its neighbours for their own purposes.
The US gets an out saying that it is a failure of the Ukrainian people. Eurosceptics in Germany and France get to reassert themselves saying that this misadventure was a EU project incompetently conceived and executed.
In short, it could just be preparation for virtue signaling in anticipation of a planned defeat of Ukraine in a few months as a way of cutting losses.
I really think this is just priceless! From RT: “Nobody told me we’re at war – NATO state’s president” and the comment by Croatian President Zoran Milanovic is wonderful! “Commenting on the German foreign minister’s declaration that Europe is “fighting a war against Russia,” Croatian President Zoran Milanovic said on Thursday that this was news to him, and wished Berlin better luck than in WWII.”
Ustashe are switching sides like in WWII.
Priceless, indeed …
Frau. Baerbock in her own words (primary source):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PS2zLacQvQ
41:10 “we can fight this war only together …”
50:00 “”because we are fighting a war against Russia …”
1:02:10 “… and yes, Ukraine belongs to the EU…”
Here is the transcript of the speech (Q&A not included)
https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/-/2575346
UK papers spinning that Russia has declared war on NATO.
So that’s how they are going to sell
it.
oh God help us all
So our western geniuses are now supporting Nazi’s, in German tanks, attacking Russians??. Does anyone out there not see a problem with this? Are we now being lead by total lunatics? This is unjustified brinksmanship on a grand scale. Why is Russia deemed our enemy ? Why are we involved in a regional dispute in Ukraine? If Russia gets pushed far enough, we all die in a nuclear war!! This is nuts!!