Thanks to Andrei Martyanov for pointing out a recent opinion piece by Peter Van Buren, a retired Foreign Service Officer who had a career at the U.S. State Department. U.S. Foreign Service officers take great pride in believing they are super smart. How do they know? They pass the Foreign Service exam. If you have not taken and passed that exam you are, by definition, not as smart as a Foreign Service officer. I am not exaggerating.
I worked alongside some of these folks for four years and can attest to the arrogance and air of self-importance that imbues the typical FSO as they parade around State Department headquarters aka Main State. While there are some exceptions (i.e., normal people you would enjoy sitting with as a dinner guest or bar mate), the FSOs are a weird lot produced through years of self-selection. One of my former colleagues, a gent named “Tony” was a devout Christian Scientist who had a permanent case of the sniffles. I found it hilarious. He was always sick. He did not appreciate the irony.
Anyway, back to Mr. Van Buren. Peter appears to be a break with the stereotype. He is a big, beefy guy and does not appear to be deficient in testosterone. Testosterone is in short supply at Main State. It is metro sexual heaven. FSOs also are known for being fairly reticent personalities. They normally shy away from attracting attention unless there is a promotion on the line. Looks like Peter was not afraid to rock the boat and go to where the action was:
Van Buren served in the U.S. Department of State for 24 years, including a year in Iraq as a team leader for two Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs).[1]
After his book, We Meant Well: How I Helped Lose the Battle for the Hearts and Minds of the Iraqi People, was published in 2012 Van Buren claims to have experienced a series of escalating, adverse actions.[2][3] His former employer, the U. S. State Department, claimed van Buren had not properly cleared his book for publication under Department rules, and that the book contained unauthorized disclosures of classified material.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_van_Buren#cite_note-WaPoDavidson-4
I have not read his book, We Meant Well, but I can applaud him for acknowledging the fecklessness of the U.S. imperial adventure that cost the Iraqis so much in blood and treasure.
That said, I am shocked by his piece in the American Conservative. He starts off with this, to quote brother Martyanov, wowser:
From the moment Russian troops crossed into Ukraine, there were only two possible outcomes. Ukraine could reach a diplomatic solution that resets its physical eastern border (i.e., Russia annexes much of eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River, and establishes a land bridge to Crimea), and so firmly reestablishes its geopolitical role as buffer state between NATO and Russia. Or, after battlefield losses and diplomacy, Russia could retreat to its original February starting point, and Ukraine would firmly reestablish its geopolitical role as a buffer state between NATO and Russia.
“Only two possible outcomes?” I can think of at least one other possible outcome — Russia demilitarizes and de-nazifies Ukraine and ensures that a new government in Ukraine is not beholden to the United States and NATO. Peter, why did you not even entertain this possibility? Russia, by virtue of its size and technically sophisticated military (e.g., it has a fully integrated electronic warfare capability that NATO lacks) and arsenal of precision hyper sonic missiles and tanks entered the “special military operation” with some clear advantages.
Peter also makes this outlandish claim:
This problem for Putin is ever more acute as NATO builds up strength in Poland.
One of Peter’s friends needs to do an intervention and let him know that NATO has run out of weapons to send Ukraine and that Poland’s Army is larger than England and Germany combined. In short, NATO is relying on Poland to provide the cannon fodder, er, I mean troops, to give NATO a credible force. NATO, in reality, is a ghost force with little punch. Consider these numbers:
British. as of 2022, the British Army comprises 79,380 regular full-time personnel, 4,090 Gurkhas, and 28,330 volunteer reserve personnel. (https://www.army.mod.uk/)
As of January 2022, the German Army had a strength of 62,766 soldiers. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Army)
As of 2020, the French Army employed 118,600 personnel (including the Foreign Legion and the Paris Fire Brigade). In addition, the reserve element of the French Army consisted of 22,750 personnel.
As of 2022, Poland has 150,000 active duty personnel and a 32,000 Territorial Defense Force.
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Armed_Forces)
Surely a diplomat with Mr. Van Buren’s pedigree would know that Russia just finished mobilizing more than 300,000 military reservists. That force alone is larger than the standing armies of the UK, Germany and France combined. Let that fact sink in for a moment. Russia has a million man army currently active and has reserves of more than two million. I don’t think the NATO commanders are very good at math.
Peter labors under the delusion that Russia is still in the military Dark Ages and has not caught up with the military might of the U.S. and NATO:
Putin’s plan depends on fighting Ukraine, and thus the U.S. by proxy, not direct conflict with the militarily superior United States and whole of NATO.
Just how does the United States enjoy “military superiority” over Russia? Russia has a larger army in terms of manpower. Russian tanks are as good, if not better, than any tank in the U.S. arsenal. Russia has the most modern air defense system of any country in the world. And Russia has a clear edge in hyper sonic precision missiles that it is producing domestically without depending on imported resources. The United States is “superior” in one regard — it spends billions more than Russia. Oh yeah. One more thing. The United States has lost more wars to second and third world countries than Russia.
I am not sure why Peter Van Buren wrote this article the way he did. For a guy who was not keen to genuflect to the U.S. State Department hierarchy, he certainly is bending the knee to the neo-con memes, e.g. “Russia is militarily inferior”, “Russia is running out of missiles” and “Putin wants to resurrect the Soviet Union”. Yet, he concludes his article with some sanity:
The conquest of Ukraine being treated as a small unit exercise tells us much. None of this is any great secret. The off ramp in Ukraine, a diplomatic outcome, is clear enough to Washington. The Biden administration seems content, shamefully, not to call forcefully for diplomatic efforts but instead to bleed out the Russians as if this was Afghanistan 1980 all over again, all the while looking tough and soaking up whatever positive bipartisan electoral feelings are due for pseudo “war time” President Joe Biden. As with Afghanistan in 1980, the U.S. seems ready to fight until the last local falls (supplying them just enough weaponry to avoid losing) before facing the inevitable negotiated ending, a shameful position then and a shameful one now.
I agree with Peter that the U.S. strategy is shameful. But he forgot to discuss a key fact — Russia will dictate the terms. Russia is not bleeding men and materiel. Ukraine is. Russia has the resources in personnel and military defense production plants that it can resupply and sustain operations. Ukraine, now, is totally dependent on Western largess. So much for Mr. Van Buren’s “only two possible outcomes.”
Maybe van Buren is looking to a political career.
As for the American Conservative, its head honcho the despicable Rod Dreher (who allegedly supports free speech but will allow not a word of criticism of the zionist entity on comments to his articles) claims it is “indisputable ” that “Putin began the war”. This in an article calling for peace, too.
The AC and Dreher have their weaknesses, yet they are way above the American MSM swamp. Just in the last two months AC published 5 articles by Douglas MacGregor. Not bad!
Dreher himself is closer to contemporary Russia than we may think. Incensed by the sins of the Catholic Hierarchy, he converted to Eastern Orthodoxy and wrote the Benedict Option, fairly close to the Russian opinion that Western society is degenerate (to which I subscribe having lived in the developing world for over 30 years). You won’t find that in The Atlantic or Foreign Policy, eminent representatives of this degenerate society.
Agreed. Dreher does fall all over himself presenting the Western view that Putin launched a “barbaric invasion”, however. He’ll hammer the LGBT and CRT agendas in his blog, but he will NEVER allow himself to connect the dots as to who is behind it all.
Well, to these eyes it’s indisputable that Ukraine began the war in 2014 and in 2022, Russia accelerated a much delayed RTP operation in the Donbass whose scope increased in direct proportion to western military aid to Ukraine. It was also crystal clear to these eyes that Ukraine and NATO were poised to launch Operation Storm 2.0 in Donbass, provoking a Russian response. Since the original OS, whether by design or by lack of control over Croatian forces, resulted in a major ethnic cleansing of the Krajina, we can assume the same result for an OS 2.0 by Ukrainian forces. Precedents do matter.
BUT…even assuming that Putin did begin this war, why is it such an issue? The US began wars based on paltry, manufactures, even no evidence in Iraq, Libya, Syria and a war on Yugoslavia based on the very elastic principle of ‘self-determination’ that it now denies to others. Such actions by the US stand the very concept of a ‘rules-based international order’ against a wall and shot as a legitimate concept. Truth be known, it was only a convenient window dressing for the US’ ‘full-spectrum dominance’ mantra preceding it and that in reality, never disappeared….just shape shifted. Best analogy I can think of was the name shifting of Ukraine’s openly fascist ‘Social Nationalist’ party into Svoboda, under western tutelage.
I will just add that the whole of the west has started living like one giant ostrich with the head in the sand.
LALALALALLALALALA can’t hear ya! We are the best, we are the best!
In other news, Putin drove a car over the Kirch bridge today, walked over, talked to people like a real boss. They don’t even call him “Mr. President”, the beefy guy next to him on the bridge called him “Vladimir Vladimirovich” while explaining the work being done.
Imagine that, a president in full control over his facilities, talking to actual people doing things.
Meanwhile, Brandon had to blink twice to indicate he wants broccoli with his dinner.
Now you tell me what our chances our in the beacon of democracy and how we stack up against the Russians…
Politics by other means.
Now you tell me what our chances our in the beacon of democracy and how we stack up against the Russians… — Oddo
Haven’t observed Russian elections, so cannot say how we stack up, but our beacon of democracy…? Our chances?
The USG has been fighting for hegemonic control since its founding. Manifest Destiny? Monroe Doctrine? No sooner did the Indian Wars end than we picked a fight with Spain. Which required some nation building in the Philippines… Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine…
The USG is, in fact, good at nation building. It has all the tools required… surveillance and control of all communications; militarized and secret police; control over access to elected office; organized, systematic infiltration and neutralization of popular political opposition; even political prisoners, secret prisons and torture…
All that nation building… is blowing back on us.
Is a civil war coming? A color revolution? A second American revolution?
What are our plans?
We know what they want — more power. Absolute control. Over us.
Our plans won’t be a secret. Our troops are reluctant to fight. What reasons do we have to fight? No goals. No strategy. No plans. No organization…
Just us against them — more or less individually, randomly — and they’ve got experience. And guns. And plans
We can argue about the futility of voting and, mostly, I’ll agree with you. But, perhaps there is some utility in re-examining our assumptions. Voting is not simply about selecting among (the lesser of two evils, deep state) candidates for office.
Voting, as an act, implicitly expresses your consent to be governed.
Voting creates and establishes the perceived legitimacy of our elected government.
How do we attack that legitimacy by using our votes? How do we express our consent explicitly? Can we explicitly withhold our consent to be governed?
Is it possible to attack the legitimacy of our governance at the ballot box?
This is a political question. Consider it politics by other means.
Can we explicitly withhold our consent to be governed? – Try collecting your ballot paper and retain it – Take it home with you and frame it, as a symbol of withholding consent. If done on a large scale the difference between the number of ballots issued and ballots counted would determine how legitimate or not the election would be.
This is in line with my thinking, namely that democracy is primarily about the legitimization of state power.
And the decisive act of legitimation is participation in elections, because elections in a democratically constituted state are the constituted right according to which legitimation must take place.
By participating in the election alone, the citizen submits to this right, which is constitutive for the state … and thus also to the state power, which bears the right and which is at the same time borne by this very right.
This sounds like the proverbial “chicken – egg” problem, but that’s just the way this world is …
If one follows this, then each state, the state authority has a legitimacy problem with a voter turnout of less than 50% – “do not vote” is legally a “silence” i.S.v. “nothing do” and “nothing say”, from which on the will could be concluded to lead a legal consequence – here the legitimacy of the state – …
On the other side: If nobody would vote, we would have nevertheless something like a state power, because nobody can do without it – even if some believe that …
“Can we explicitly withhold our consent to be governed?” – that depends on whether you’re willing to die over it. The power to govern ultimately comes from the barrel of a gun. Of course if it’s just you, they’ll just shoot you and that will be that. So first you need to de-brainwash a sufficiently large number of people and convince them they need to risk death to withdraw their consent.
If I don’t vote, I don’t consent to be governed?
I don’t think it works like that…..
I did observe Russian elections when I was posted there. Here’s the essay I wrote.
https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2017/06/16/presidential-election-1996/
I recommend you all read Thomas Paine’s “The Rights of Man”.
Succinctly, he makes the point that governments are instituted amongst men in order to secure those rights for themsleves which they could not secure alone. Like common defense.
There is a great deal of thought already put into these ideas which are easily available and informative, regardless of your agreement with them. For example, the Federalist Papers should be understood by anyone who wants to speak about American Deomcracy.
Auch, the whole tradition has been abandoned and few even know of the “great conversation anymore.
apologies for typos…unfamiliar keyboard
…few even know of the “great conversation anymore. — WhoamItoday
So let’s talk…
***
If I don’t vote, I don’t consent to be governed?
I don’t think it works like that….. — D Wilson
It doesn’t… Because your consent is implied it cannot be withheld. Not voting proves nothing, electorally speaking, because your intent cannot be proven (sick, working, protesting…?).
The problem is making your consent explicitly known. Because if you cannot say No, it’s not consent, but coercion.
***
…that depends on whether you’re willing to die over it. The power to govern ultimately comes from the barrel of a gun. — irf520
While the latter is true, the former misses the point… How does its legitimacy survive if the USG overtly and violently attacks its own peaceful voters, whose only crime is not voting for them?
***
…democracy is primarily about the legitimization of state power.
And the decisive act of legitimation is participation in elections, because elections in a democratically constituted state are the constituted right according to which legitimation must take place.
That is exactly the point… What the US Constitution provides is a mechanism for democratic oversight of its governance — popularly elected representatives and President.
Problem is, our governance under that democratic oversight supposedly rests upon our consent — the consent of the governed — but if that consent is implied and cannot be withheld, then it is meaningless.
Many of the US government officials (current or ex) are brainwashed till the extent that they genuinely believe in the Hollywood trope that the US military is the greatest fighting force in the world, simply because USA spends more money on it. That “expensive means good” fallacy is especially prevalent amongst ignorant people who lacks critical thoughts. The ‘multi-million dollar pen that works in the lack of gravity in space when a pencil could have done the job’ example, best illustrates the American thinking. And for evidences that ‘cheap can also be effective’ look at the Taliban’s victory over US military. Or Vietnam. Or North Korea’s missiles. Or now Iran. And Russia is like all these combined and more.
Good one!
First, American Conservative is a subverted neoconjob rag. Just like National Review via CIA Buckley.
Second, your description of FSOs completely fits my experience… New Years Eve party, 1992, Tel Aviv which the CO and I (Ops Officer) attended. Arrogant superiority was astounding. Those people were fucked up.
Whatever the flaws of the film 13 Hours, about the overrunning of US compounds in Benghazi, one thing the film does accomplish is to illustrate the immense contempt that the diplomatic / intel staff had for the ‘knuckle-draggers’ (former spec ops military contractors) assigned to their security.
Until the shooting started.
Larry, isn’t it more accurate to say that NATO is running out of weapons that the Ukrainians can learn to use in a meaningful time frame? Abrams tanks, fighters–NATO isn’t out of these, but the learning requirements are prohibitive. Of course, yes, artillery shells, stingers, javelins, yes, are in short supply across NATO.
You are correct that there is a significant learning curve. There also is the issue of compatibility and maintenance.
And parts. And guys to repair them, even if you could get parts out there. And a LOT of fuel that can’t be supplied in this environment. No way they send those tanks in. Fair assessment?
But the thing is, these vaunted weapons is designed for low intensity combat operation. Take the F35, the cost you have to pay just to keep it flying after a shorty is not sustainable if they are engaged in constant – high intensity combat with a peer and near peer adversary. And there are risk of errors and unpredictable things might happen that will land the aircraft indefinitely. In a long War between great power, quantity and quality of your weapon system is of equal important but in a long run, quantity (which mean you can out produce your opponent for your military need) slowly slowly but surely will triumph over quality of the weapon.
That’s one of the main strengths the Allies had fighting Hitler and Japan – they were out produced.
All I can say is the rule of business in Washington D.C. is to threaten, compromise and blackmail people. His previous coming to the altar of truth has been slapped down by the stench in the halls of the Deep State. IMO
And not once does the word ‘China’ appear in his piece. You can’t discuss what’s happening or what’s going to happen in Ukraine, and between Russia and NATO, without including China.
While they’re not involved in the fighting, the presence of Beijing as Moscow’s ally has had a major influence on NATO decision-making. Ukraine is just a piece of a wider geopolitical struggle and it seems strange that this wasn’t included in his article.
It seems Van Buren has already had a tough time at the hands of the despicable Obama and his cronies. Perhaps he feels that he has to be careful what he says.
I recall just prior to Russia kicking off the SMO in February, Russia sent a large delegation to China to hammer out some deals. In the press release that followed I remember reading that Huawei signed a deal to “network and automate” Russian manufacturing … on the verge of the commencement of hostilities against a NATO trained and supported military I doubt they were talking about building toasters.
China is keeping their hands clean in this war … at least facing the public … but they’ve declared their support for Russia is “more than allies” and “they stand back to back with Russia”. “Support for Russia” may be limited to buying more gas but and helping to make toasters more efficiently but one would have to be pretty naive to believe that.
Whenever I read any news about China / Russian relations from ‘official’ US sources they never fail to mention how Russia and China fell out during the cold war as a little dig to suggest that any day now China will stab Russia in the back. What you never hear from the US however is how the Soviets invaded Manchuria in 1945 and instead of setting up military bases and occupying Manchuria they handed the territory they paid for in blood to the communist. They US views this as a communist land grab … at least pubically …. I don’t think the Chinese see it as such.
Van Buren is another midwit arrogant prick. Years ago, I questioned something he was asserting – yes, politely – as a couple of sycophants were nodding their heads in agreement with their master and he got pissed and told me to “fuck off” and “don’t let the door hit you in the ass on the way out”. I can’t even recall what it was all about. Nothing serious. IMO, b/c he does have some relatively higher level of testosterone in a world of pussies, it went to his head. Maybe he should switch to decaffeinated coffee. Then again, who’s going to bust his jaw and get arrested or whatever just to play into his pompous ego game? He thinks he’s some kind of stud king of the realm. I no longer remember what his problem was, but the guy is a serious case of “I got an axe to grind ’cause I been done wrong by inferior intellects”. Was it that he was fired from state? He’s one of those guys that gets an idea in his head and he’s convinced it’s golden b/c it’s his idea; the golden goose crapping golden eggs. I see he’s lost some weight and smoothed his style. He used to have a big fat face. I wouldn’t pay him any mind. He’s not worth the energy expenditure.
Like all DC “analysts,” Peter Van Buren merely repeats a range of acceptable slogans from the US deep state
I know others must have said this as well, but it is like all the favors are being called in. If you had done anything that they could harass you for, they will ask you to make a PSA report the story they want other people to believe. For many months it had been to making up victories for the now dead. I know there is a lot of blackmail ordinarily but it must be heating up a lot. They don’t even care how absurd they sound or how ridiculous the schemes are that you just have to believe in.
Anything to postpone the crash so it can be blamed on something other than printing trillions of new money in a few years and bailing out your friends when they don’t bet the right play. They are driving it off the cliff. This is the best idea they have.
Brian O., that really makes sense. PVB saw the illusion in Iraq, so why not the cracks in the MSM fable on Ukraine? He is retired, so has nothing to lose other than invites to important parties. He is not on the board of Raytheon, so why not remain silent on the sidelines?
Today Gilbert Doctorov, living in Brussels, wrote on his blog a for me new shocking gruesome brutality of Ukrainian Military Forces to Russian POW: Maiming, Castrating or other wise disabling these Russian soldiers savagely. See hereunder.
“The (first) item comes from a 20-minute chat with a fellow who has been one of my best sources of information on the war thanks to his personal relations with siloviki, meaning in this case military intelligence officers, that go back to his college days and to his initial service as an administrator in the penitentiary system.
As many readers are aware, my pied à terre is a one bedroom apartment in the outlying Petersburg borough of Pushkin, which in pre-Revolutionary times was known as Tsarskoye Selo, literally, the tsar’s hamlet. Just 200 meters from our apartment complex is the Catherine the Great summer palace and park, which is a major attraction for both domestic and foreign tourists.
This area today is also home to an important military school which has students from Africa and other developing world regions enrolled alongside native Russians. There is a training base for helicopter pilots nearby. And there is a military hospital of national importance. It is from the latter that today’s news comes.
My acquaintance tells me that the hospital is now filled with wounded Russian soldiers from the Ukraine campaign, and in particular with maimed POWs who were released by the Ukrainian authorities in prisoner exchanges. The hospitalized include a good many traumatized soldiers who were savagely castrated or otherwise disabled by their Ukrainian captors.
If publicized, these cases would be far more inflammatory in broad Russian society than the horrendous video which circulated in social media a week ago showing the brutal execution of a dozen disarmed Russian POWs by jubilant Ukrainian soldiers. Clearly, the Kremlin is holding this back, lest detailed knowledge of the Ukrainian brutality unleash violent emotions in the Russian public.
In these circumstances, I call attention to the very difficult balancing act required of the Russian President. The man has nerves of steel. He is surely under great pressure from the patriotic hard-liners in the Kremlin who are au courant about the castrations and other evidence of Ukrainian depravity. One nod from Vladimir Vladimirovich and Kiev would be leveled to the ground in a matter of hours. It is tragic that Washington and Brussels confuse this restraint with incompetence, fear and other nonsense.”
I don’t know how it could have escaped Russian attention that Poland is”the new Germany” for a new “cold war” as far as NATO is concerned. That means all the area east of the Dnipro (at minimum) must be demilitarized.Its now been demonstrated “in real time” that the US wont enter a war directly against a “peer” enemy – this definitely includes China – and that it intends to use its “allies” as cats paws against its strategic enemies. There is “only one outcome” for Taiwan now – complete reunification with the mainland, through war and or diplomacy. However it plays out it means the US finally surrenders it, and only two possible eventual outcomes for Ukraine-neutrality or dissolution
Poles hope to become “the new Germany”, but will end up as “the new Ukraine”. If we are discussing it, I’m sure Russian are aware of it too.
The Earth has moved.
The herd has begun to change direction. The Pentagon’s one ⭐️’s have realised their pensions are slowly sliding into shitsville as the crazy sanctions + Uki body count continues to spread in all directions. Not to mention the coming slaughter in the snow that’s about to be unleashed.
Yes l know, Putin did it. Yes, Putin is wearing no shirt, rides on back of big bears eating pop corn ….but he sure beats.. 🌈🍩💩🎠.
Money talks, Cash Screams. Am l right or am l right?
$100k bills and trillion $coins fools nobody. When military pensions stop being worth a cheese burger so does every other pension.
Putins victory my include, the Uki Nazis, EU, NATO and the USA. Just have an adults look at America today. Is something wrong or is everything wrong?
@ LCJ,
“Peter labors under the delusion that Russia is still in the military Dark Ages and has not caught up with might U.S. and NATO:”
Did you mean to say:
1) Peter labors under the delusion that Russia is still in the military Dark Ages and has not caught up with the might of the U.S. and NATO:?
or
2) Peter labors under the delusion that Russia is still in the military Dark Ages and has not caught up with mighty U.S. and NATO:?
Hope this helps.
Thanks also for your articles. It’s always refreshing reading them.
Thanks. Corrected.
Not sure how these people missed the RF saying we haven’t even got started yet. Call Putin whatever you want, but he’s not a bullshitter. “Weapons based on new physics principles”. What do they think that means?! They don’t even know.
Anyone who can’t see that the US/NATO/whatever eyes are being called on their shit is blind or willfully distracting from the Truth of the situation.
Blood pressure goes up even reading about your description of the state dept lackeys. I know their type and it’s very upsetting they are speaking in the name of the USA.
Well the person mentioned in the article isn’t that bad for it seems at least he knows where Russia is located on the map of the world. The former UK PM Liz Truss didn’t even know that Volgograd was a city in Russia. Of all the current high ranking geniuses working for the US government none could beat the deputy assistant secretary of the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition in the Office of Nuclear Energy, by the name Sam Brinton. This expert attended sessions of the JCPOA nuclear talks in Geneva providing expert opinion on the subject.
When, as I have come to believe, Russia completes its reunification with Novorossiya and then sits down to talk terms with a severely truncated and damaged Ukraine, it will be interesting and embarrassing to hear how these deluded ones try to spin it.
Good luck with that. There has been real damage done here, not just to Ukraine and to Europe, but to the US in terms of global prestige. This genie ain’t going back into the bottle.
Of course I could be wrong. Russia might lose as many keep saying she is, but I increasingly doubt it falls out like that.
Ukraine will shrink even more before Russia completes its reunification with Novorossiya. In order to take back Kherson city Russians will have to go from the north. Crossing Dnieper is very problematic, so they might just have to go all the way from Belarussia. This is going to be a long war.
Afraid you are being too harsh on Peter van Buren
Yes he is off on Russia
Peter is shunned by the government and he has become offbeat like many VIPS members. Not certain if he is a member but VIPS voiced this when he got kicked out of twitter a while back
https://consortiumnews.com/2018/08/07/vips-asks-twitter-to-restore-van-burens-account/
I used to read his blog and read his fictional book on Japan several years ago
A w Polsce powoli rusza pobór do wojska. Na razie nie jest to reklamowane. Na razie mówi się po cichu o 200 000 poborowych. Produkcja mięsa armatniego wystartowała.
One example from my own experience (no I never worked for any govt of any country): Around 20 years ago a high ranking American FSO in Beijing referred to her host country (mainland China) as the “Republic Of China” (Taiwan’s name for itself).
…Presumably (or not?) she wasn’t CIA. But then there are the legions of “Legal” American spooks under diplomatic cover in less-than-friendly nations, whose main “intelligence” work seems to be to go through the motions of “recruiting” potential “assets” – mainly so that they can write reports about themselves having done so – which “assets” can and do include lots of opportunists such as money-launderers or gangsters who can then call themselves “dissidents” instead of traitors, and whether or not they actually provide any useful “intelligence” doesn’t mean much to the FSO spooks, all that really matters is that they’re fodder for the FSO spooks to write reports about. Eg, “Sergei Assholovich says he has personal contacts in Afghanistan; I shall diary this report for a follow up in 30 days”, like Waiting For Godot.
Sorry this is off the topic of this post, but I’d be very interested in your thoughts about the recent drone attacks in Russia. One of the bases hit was said to have nuclear weapons stored there and bombers to deliver them. I think Russia’s first strike doctrine allows a nuclear response to threats to its nuclear installations. Seems to me this would qualify, but I’m far from expert about all this.
Nuland was just in Ukraine. See photo of her in an ecstatic embrace with Z’s Chief of Staff:
xhttps://english.nv.ua/nation/u-s-diplomat-victoria-nuland-met-with-chief-of-staff-andriy-yermak-of-ukraine-president-zelenskyy-50288565.html
I’m wondering if she was there to give the go ahead to the strikes and knew about the possible invocation of the first strike nuclear doctrine?
Thanks again for the great blog!
” I think Russia’s first strike doctrine..”
That is interesting since The Russian Federation does not have a first strike doctrine.
The nuclear doctrine of The Russian Federation is outlined in Presidential decree 355 (not executive order since it was determined co-operatively) signed 2nd June 2020, which has been added to by an addendum in respect of biological warfare, and partly why Mr. Zelensky and his “friends” are playing some charades sooner rather than later, and Ms Nuland (she kept her own name you know) suffered some discomfort “answering questions”.
Interpretation/premastication is available at:
https://luxembourgforum.org/en/press/news/president-russian-federation-signed-executive-order-n-355-fundamentals-russias-nuclear-deterrence-state-policy/
” I think Russia’s first strike doctrine..”
That is interesting since The Russian Federation does not have a first strike doctrine.
Some context:
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2022/12/05/can-an-american-scientist-who-smuggled-critical-nuclear-secrets-to-the-russians-after-world-war-ii-be-considered-a-good-guy-new-film-says-yes/
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-First-Ever/
Thank you for the links and your reply clarifying ‘executive order’ vs ‘decree.’ Also, though I didn’t intend this, ‘first strike’ sounds aggressive, and you are correct, that term is not in Russia’s Decree 355 at all. The decree makes it clear that the purpose of the doctrine is for deterrence, and the use of nuclear weapons is not acceptable except in response to extreme threats.
Using DeepL machine translator, one such threat seems to be a threat to Russian’s nuclear defense system:
http://actual.pravo.gov.ru/text.html#pnum=0001202006020040
“c) the enemy’s impact on critical State or military facilities of the Russian Federation, the deactivation of which would disrupt the response actions of nuclear forces;”
So that is my concern about the recent strikes on Russian bases, especially Engels. Is this a major threat to Russia?
“Using DeepL machine translator”
Thank you for your recognition of your error – a prerequisite process in communication denied to many “socialised” in coercive social relations.
On a professional point it is impossible to translate from one language to another especially by machines, since neither connotations nor nuances can be wholly communicated given languages and their connotations and nuances differ even within languages – using Russian Zek being one example of many.
There are only interpreters often serially and contemporaneously interpreting , as in the “intelligence” interpretation relayed verbally during the “First World War”, in itself an interpretation, being subject to lateral change from “Send re-inforcements, we are going to advance” to “Send three and four pence, we are going to a dance”, which apparently some tried to encourage to be mis-interpretated by the assertion they were using code.
“The United States of America” as a function of facility, often seek to attain attribution where none existed, non attribution where some attribution was appropriate, and attempt encourage interpretations of their “unexpected consequences” as part of their “chaos strategies” instead of their chaotic strategies.
“one such threat seems to be a threat to Russian’s nuclear defense system:”
“The United States of America” is sustained by, and saturated by, seems.
“is this a major threat to Russia?”
No; lands of opportunity to The Russian Federation and others throughout the world, given that “the use of nuclear weapons is not acceptable except in response to extreme threats” whilst “”The United States of America” is sustained by, and saturated by, seems.”
“So that is my concern about the recent strikes on Russian bases, especially Engels. Is this a major threat to Russia?”
In all interactions including but not limited to “war”, blowback cannot be avoided, only minimised through various interactions.
So not a major threat, but facilitate other lands of opportunities as do bio-“logical” weapons laboratories, since “”The United States of America” is sustained by, and saturated by, seems”, whilst “languages and their connotations and nuances differ even within languages”, encouraging/facilitating self-cannibalism interpreted by some as “word salad”.
Thanks for your continuing mordant commentary Larry.
If I may, just a minor point on the old chestnut of ‘Britain & America being two countries separated by a common language’ which applies in spades for Aussie speak.
It might have been a typo. for YOWSA but, to Antipodean readers, “wowser” is a puritanical or censorious person, in particular a teetotaller or person opposed to alcohol or a religious nutter always peering out from behind twitching curtains.
“MORE EVIDENCE THAT AMERICA’S DIPLOMATS ARE NOT AS SMART AS THEY BELIEVE THEY ARE”.
You are being too restrictive by your headline not likely as a function of modesty.
Perhaps a less restrictive and more representative introduction would read :
“As is almost a constant due to inherent practices, even more evidence that “Americans” are not as smart as they believe they are, and so we can continue to co-operatively develop other practices to facilitate our purposes, remembering that killing is less well mannered/productive than rendering them useful fools.”
A slightly different version of the above was shared in the 1980’s which continues to facilitate illusions such as “We won the Cold War” and “Russia was a basket case under our control (full spectrum dominance) during the 1990’s”, thereby aiding the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation in addition to many other internal factors of “The Soviet Union”, including the seed potato to potato sold ratios and plan over-achievement reporting each evening on the first television channel, lies having multi-purposes not all apparent to liars.
Mr friend Jeremy Greenstock had a similar difficulty in getting his book on Iraq approved. As UK special envoy alongside Paul Bremer in 2003 his “The Cost of War” was published in 2016 making plain that the American idea of “hearts and minds” was, shall we say, a little different to the Brits’.
Sorry to hear that Rod Dreyer comes in for criticism. His “Live Not by lies” is a must read for anyone wanting to understand how the West is being undermined by the introduction of ‘social credit’ systems.
Mark,
I was a pretty good friend of Jerry “L. Paul” Bremer prior to him becoming the imperial poobah of Iraq. His conduct in Iraq ruptured our friendship. He had zero experience working with Arabs or an Arab culture. I tried to connect him with Pat Lang, and Jerry rejected that suggestion.
Thank you. “Imperial poobah” – I like that!
“MORE EVIDENCE THAT AMERICA’S DIPLOMATS ARE NOT AS SMART AS THEY BELIEVE THEY ARE”
Well no surprise there, since they partly believe that smartness is improved by shinier shoes, teeth, and an expensive “suit” – after all some “oligarchs” did adopt their sense of style.
“teeth,” you say MirroGazers; that cuts out 75% of the Brits. Yeah, Baby, Yeah!
The present confrontation between the Western powers and Russia time and time again exposes the Western self-imposed one-sidedness. One sided according to Word Hippo means:
Considering or favoring only one side of a matter
Out of proportion or lopsided
Not reciprocated
Wearing blinkers or blinders
Concerned with one side
Offensively or unfairly discriminating
Seeking to impose a doctrine in all circumstances without regard to practical considerations.
The Biblical book of Proverbs explains the beginning of wisdom as ‘the fear of the Lord’. Basically this means the introduction of a different perspective next to one’s original one side perspective for making judgments. Well, the Proverbial ‘fool’ angrily & haughtily dismisses this. Proverbial wisdom that teaches you to evaluate by looking from many perspectives.
“We Meant Well: How I Helped Lose the Battle for the Hearts and Minds of the Iraqi People”
Mr. Van Buren is illustrating his memory loss as has been his wont/won’t.
It was/is always the battle for minds and genitals (balls) for “The United States of America”, it was not lost but remains ongoing, and “The United States of America” never meant well since it was always a battle for minds and genitals, and heart rhythms in respect of some others.
“From the moment Russian troops crossed into Ukraine, there were only two possible outcomes. Ukraine could reach a diplomatic solution that resets its physical eastern border (i.e., Russia annexes much of eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River, and establishes a land bridge to Crimea), and so firmly reestablishes its geopolitical role as buffer state between NATO and Russia.”
The first option — reset its physical eastern border — would be a disaster for the Ukraine. For the Ukraine to give that part of the country is to give up that part of the country that is responsible for approximately 90-percent of the country’s GDP.
Through wanton and open criminality and corruption going back generations, the Ukraine has been nothing more than a failed state. Even when it was under control by the former Soviet Russia, the Ukraine was a parasitic, moocher, deadbeat. Today, it is a parasitic, moocher, deadbeat, being run by a midget, cross-dressing, coke addict.
Where things stand today is that the Ukraine, always a troubled child, has fallen in with the wrong crowd (the United States). The Ukraine’s behavior risks destabilizing a world barely hanging on to chaos with both hands. The parents of this troubled child is Russia. And Russia has been forced into taking action.
To put this into some perspective. One of the finest foreign diplomats the United States ever had was Jackie Kennedy. As her president husband once put it: “I am the man who accompanied Jacqueline Kennedy to Paris, and I have enjoyed it.”
Jackie Kennedy outlined her foreign policy in terms every parent can understand. When asked what her most important job was, she did not say it was being the wife of a president. She said being a parent was. “If you bungle raising your children, I don’t think whatever else you do matters very much.”
The translation is something like this. Jackie did not believe in foreign entanglements abroad. She believed a country’s first responsibility was taking care of business at home. This was also the belief she shared with other true Americans, like Benjamin Franklin.
This is where Russia finds itself.
The second option? Take the Ukraine back. All of it. Now, that’s secure borders. And tell the rest of the world to “butt out.” This isn’t about foreign entanglements; it’s about taking care of business at home.
“there were only two possible outcomes.”
If you are willing to put aside possible illusions, for some but not all, the 1990’s in Russia were seasons of mirth and mellow fruitfulness/usefulness.
For example:
Some like Mr. Aslund and an entourage of recently minted Phd’s tried to convince members of the Industrial nomenklatura that they had wasted their lives, but fortunately they had been annointed with the opportunities courtesy of “The ever well-meaning United States of America” to meet Mr. Aslund and others who had come to “save” their soles/souls.
The initial meetings were also attended by some others with experience of coffee and cognac – hence more experienced than those whose experience was linited to beer with shashlik or tea with tast pichenya (biscuits) or, heaven forefend, these vodka drinkers fully endowed with skills in Zek.
At the end of the meeting the role of some others was to have a coffee and cognac with members of the Industrial nomenklatura to explain why the meeting took place, and why they should not send the “partners” back in the cargo hold of the Delta flight from Sheremetovo to New Jersey, but remember GOSPLAN.
The members of the Industrial nomenklatura were people of experience and extensive memories, so henceforth they tended, with ocassional understandable deviations, to remember GOSPLAN.
I’d be interested in your opinion of this article. I’m thinking it must be accurate since policy in the US has had a similar effect.
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/harvard-boys-do-russia/
The Harvard Boys Do Russia
After seven years of economic “reform” financed by billions of dollars in U.S.
By Janine R. Wedel
May 14, 1998
“After seven years of economic “reform” financed by billions of dollars in U.S. and other Western aid, subsidized loans and rescheduled debt, the majority of Russian people find themselves worse off economically. The privatization drive that was supposed to reap the fruits of the free market instead helped to create a system of tycoon capitalism run for the benefit of a corrupt political oligarchy that has appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars of Western aid and plundered Russia’s wealth. “
Also read this, a sort of prequel.
https://www.amazon.ca/Collision-Collusion-Strange-Western-Eastern-ebook/dp/B00SRQTHZI/ref=sr_1_1?crid=HZFJHSKMIDMH&keywords=collision+and+collusion&qid=1670464061&s=digital-text&sprefix=collision+and+collusion%2Cdigital-text%2C171&sr=1-1
IMO she nailed it.
“I’d be interested in your opinion of this article.”
“https://www.thenation.com/article/world/harvard-boys-do-russia/
The Harvard Boys Do Russia”
It is an obfuscation of an attempted “colour revolution” predicated on hope of the target audience’s beliefs that “The United States of America” always means well, and “aid” is always a benefice without malevalent purpose, but frustrated by the “evil doing” of others.
“The privatization drive that was supposed to reap the fruits of the free market instead helped to create a system of tycoon capitalism run for the benefit of a corrupt political oligarchy that has appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars of Western aid and plundered Russia’s wealth. “
The privatisation process was always supposed to facilitate a fire sale of assets for the “American” political oligarchy through recycling back to “source””Western aid” with “capital gains” from Russia’s wealth as added inducements.
That “The Soviet Union” was not sustainable, and “The United States of America” including “Harvard Boys” would attempt to benefit from any collapse was understood in 1969.
By 1970 playing dominoes required “The United States of America” to engage in the alchemy of turning gold into paper – the initial targets being Germany, Japan and the “Middle East” oil/gas states – with the acquiescence of “The Soviet Union” on the basis of detente derived from “convergence theory” evangelised by Mr. John Mearsheimer and Mr. Stephen F Cohen in parallel with attempted “divide and rule” based upon tensions between the PRC and “The Soviet Union”, another iteration of the minds and balls gambit of “The United States of America”.
Subsequently members of the Industrial nomenklatura took coffee and cognac with some advisors who explained why they shouldn’t do the “Harvard boys”.
“The United States of America” cancelled the no bid contract of the “Harvard boys” and largely directed “technical assistance” through “more acceptable faces” including European Union’s TACIS projects including SMERUS, and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), from the autumn of 1993 until March 2000 – EBRD losing circa ECU 30 billion by “The Russian default” of 1998.
It looks like Poland is calling up 200K reservists.
https://www.eska.pl/slaskie/wojsko-polskie-daje-wezwania-na-cwiczenia-wojskowe-2022-sa-obowiazkowe-i-platne-aktualizacja-02-12-aa-piej-gr8B-pune.html
Well, the number going around is that Poland has suffered 1200 KIA presumably mostly army; using the normal ratios, that suggests about 6K casualties. That’s a lot for an army that Wikipedia says has about 60K soldiers.
Question going forward after the dust settles. If it settles. How do you think Americans will be treated as tourists when most of these BRIC countries move on? Would one want to go to Europe after the winter freeze to visit? I don’t think taping a Canadian flag on ones back pack will work like it did in the 70’s. As an average person these are questions I ask myself.
When the 2nd illegal invasion of Iraq was launched, many US tourists were attempting to pass themselves off as Canadians then too; and Canadians were pissed off about it.
At the time I had a restaurant in a tourist area of S/E Asia and soon learned the subtle differences in Nth American accents.
I picked up Van Buren’s book “We Meant Well” when it came out 10 years ago or so, and found the book unreadable, not because it was written in an obscure inaccessible academic language (it wasn’t, it is actually written in a simple accessible language) but because it oozes of smugness of an American guy who just stepped off the plane in what he perceived to be some 3rd world country in order to “help” this country. The book is about the minutiae of Van Buren’s mundane daily personal experiences in Iraq (I did this, I did that) and doesn’t delve into any geopolitical or philosophical discussions. So besides being smug, it is also boring. Van Buren is typical of someone who worked in diplomatic circles that here in Canada is exemplified by people working in Ottawa – at some point in their lives they start assuming that every mundane aspect of their daily life has some crucial importance and must be communicated to the world even at the cost of boring them to death. When we “simple” folks visit Paris, for example, we come back saying that it was great and recommend visiting this and that. An Ottawa man, on the other hand, will describe each of his days in Paris in detail, starting with what he had for breakfast and where. Van Buren is America’s version of an Ottawa man.
Just reported at Armstrong Economics https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/ukraine-strikes-moscow-airport-expanding-the-war/ that Ukraine has ‘droned’ Moscow. Start of WWIII. Once war is declared then comments that we have freely expressed on line will likely be called treasonous simply because the truth is no longer reasonable.
I passed the foreign service entrance exam. It’s easy. I’ll admit it took two tries (I think the average is like 7 tries or something stupid). One lady told me the written exam was harder than the bar; she did so because we were in the same group for the oral exam and she remembered me telling the group before the written that it was easy. But IMO, any moderately well read and thoughtful person wouldn’t have too much trouble with the written exam.
The oral exam isn’t a test. It’s a game between the proctors and the people taking it. It took me half of the first time to figure out the game. A lot of it’s just putting you under pressure. Some of it is leveraging expectations. In the group exercise everyone thinks that if their “project” is accepted they’ll do better, but that’s not it. It’s who leads the group to get to consensus. The whole things like that. They’re just trying to stress you. More intellectual hazing than anything else. I thought it was great fun the second time. Played the smart ass card a lot.
Told a proctor in the lavatory that the second time wasn’t much easier but a lot more fun. He asked if I was a masochist. When the secretary told us we could get comfortable for the written section because they weren’t watching us (they were) I asked if I could take my pants off. My answer to her follow up was “because I’ve always dreamed of a pants free world”. I didn’t take the job. It was January 03 and I had no desire to be an imperial advance man. I made the right choice. I probably would have had to work for Vicky Nuland by now.
Btw, not bragging but trying to illustrate that anyone basing their self worth on that test is hilarious. But I can totally see how it happens because it is intellectual hazing.
Not sure he is catering to the neocons. I’ve heard him a number of times on the Scott Horton show which is definitely anti-neocon. Your disagreement is with his assessment of Russian military prowess. He probably got that through the main stream media but was smart enough not to buy the story for the war. Seems Andrei’s nationalist feelings were hurt. 😭
Larry, you have brought this up in a previous article about how many Admirals and Generals we have currently versus World War 2. But I think this issue bears reinforcement. Western Armies are so full of Brass, secretaries, press officers, gender study affairs, and misc. woke asskissers? We are at a 10 to 1 tooth to tail ratio. Out of every 10 people 1 pulls a trigger. And that might be understated. So, to your very accurate numbers. British Army 79,380, German Army 62,766 soldiers, French Army 118,600 (including the Foreign Legion and the Paris Fire Brigade), Poland has 150,000. That is 410,746. Using the 10 to 1 ratio that is 41,746 fighting men. And I include cannon cockers and men driving supply trucks as fighting men. Russia mobilized 300,000 and they took 80,000 volunteers. And they WENT thru their records looking for the MOS’s they wanted!!! Not a single gender studies officer. Not a single press officer. Not a single pretty little E-5 secretary (male or female) to brighten the General’s day. NATO is a tripwire for US nuke’s. It is not, and never was a fighting force. I will not even get into the fact that the NATO members never met their committed 2% financial target. Before they put the sanctions bullseye on their own forehead and pulled the trigger. Ukraine was the West’s last chance. They built an Army there of fanatical, crazed, trained, Honest to God, Nazi’s. And Russia with all its missteps. And there are plenty, is grinding thru them. And the Taiwan election? Do you not think other countries are examining their relationship with the USA and wondering if they want to be the next charnel ground for US foreign policy? Loss upon loss upon loss.
“And Russia with all its missteps. And there are plenty, is grinding thru them.”
In my opinion, which is only buffeted by armchair wargaming (in other words inexperienced and undoubtedly flawed) these apparent mistakes and “missteps” were calculated into the overall plan. It appears to me that Putin and Russia’s planners accounted for the oligarchic style waste, fraud, theft and greed, along with the inexperience and faults of unbloodied commanders by going about the SMO in exactly the way they are.
This gave them the time they needed with minimal losses to correct flawed operational standards and replace faulty commanders, along with the greedy commanders along with their political and business counterparts, with competent people who clearly understand the threat to Russia (and the entire world if one is honest) and adhere to it’s geopolitical goals. Within this plan it appears they laid out the groundwork to rid themselves of a high volume of enemy intelligence operatives too. Some of whom would have been one and the same with the above mentioned retards in the Russian State.
On the other hand as Larry consistently points out along with many commentators such as yourself, the Western nations are doing nothing to get rid of their faulty people. America in particular is continuing to gather more and more retards into their ranks to perpetuate a losing strategy. A strategy that has nothing to do with peace and living in peace and harmony as best as one can without surrender in this world.
And for what? For what are the retards in the west proceeding down this path of destruction for?
Fake money, false wealth, and the power they believe they have which only exists in their unseeing minds. They fail to realize that 120 years is their limit at the very best, averaging out among their ranks as 80 years of ease and tyranny, then their worm never sleeps.
There are many in America who believe that the Constitution is the answer. They are incorrect.
As an aside, I have seen a few writings that may suggest China is getting rid of some of it’s dead weight too. Whether that is the actual case or not I have no clue. Yet if so, America is toast. Sure a husk of a shadow of America might remain if it was just Russia alone looking for a more peaceful existence with prosperity for all instead of just a few nations being top dog. Not so if both Russia and China have decided to right their ships as best they can in this cursed world. America is absolute toast if the two largest players in the east have decided to take an inventory of their “warehouses” and get their “stock” right.
this is off topic; we should not forget that this is the 81st anniversary of pearl harbour today
https://republicbroadcasting.org/news/pearl-harbor-attack-dec-7-1941-survivor-s-j-hemker-remembered/comment-page-1/#comment-108135
https://andrewcarringtonhitchcock.com/2022/12/07/ach-1993-mischa-popoff-it-was-81-years-ago-today/
https://cldup.com/Mx332adbTm.mp3
regards,
ralph
“Russia has the most modern air defence system of any country in the world.” I see and hear this a lot, but the recent attacks on significant Russian AFBs, deep inside the country, makes me pause and wonder why these attacks appeared to have some success at all. The video of the strike on Engels-2 resulted in a huge fireball, at ground level, indicating no AD was actually successful in taking the incoming missile out at high level — contrary to the MoD statement.
Russia/USSR always had best air defence systems because West never invested much in those. USA/NATO focused all their money on air superiority. When you spend gazillion dollars on F-35, your close air defense is going to be Humvee with few Stingers on it (soon to be delivered to Ukraine).
No air defence system is perfect, and Russia is very big. Completly preventing this kind of attacks is impossible. It is much easier to protect smaller countries like Israel, and even they can not shoot down everything. I won’t even mention what Houthis did to Saudi Arabia, or Iranian missiles to US bases in Iraq.
Yes,
But the Engels airbase is critical for Russia’s deterrence and has billions of rubles in assets.
Seems like it would be a very high priority for an air defense system. Russia is big, but it only has 150 million people. You don’t have to defend what is mostly empty space.
Seventy five percent of Russians live in large towns and cities with only twenty five percent living in a rural setting. You have to defend critical urban manufacturing centers and military bases, not everything.
“But the Engels airbase is critical for Russia’s deterrence and has billions of rubles in assets.”
Thank you for your ejaculation/interpretation.
However the interpretations of others take precedence over your interpretation.
Thank you for your service in displaying a component of why many are not as smart as they think they are, even if you bless your lucky stars.
Strategic bombers aren’t deterring anyone, and are mostly used for attacking smaller countries. If you don’t believe me, ask US Airforce. Russian critical deterrence are intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear submarines.
That being said, the base do have high importance, and getting caught with pants down does look bad. This is not the first time that surprise attack have succeded, and won’t be the last. Attack on Kerch bridge looked worse, and so did events on Snake Island, and multiple attacks on Crimea. Expecting any country to prevent all the possible attacks is naive, especially when in conflict with almighty NATO.
I am increasingly convinced that the real US strategy to overthrow Putin and his Govt was propaganda. How ridiculous! A massive global disinformation campaign the likes of which no one has ever seen and which Washington truly believed would cause some revolution in Moscow. One more colorful revolution like Maidan or the one taking place now in Iran and so many in the last 50 years for regimes change! And many also failed like the last in Honk Kong! The military plan and the economic sanctions were always just ancillary plans to wear down the Kremlin! Campaign the EU joined for its own economic suicide.
The military level was much more for “business” and to help the economic effort. Like opium in Afghanistan. And the business started in 2014. When the US and UK started to unload millions in weapons, most of them obsolete, in one of the most corrupt countries in the world and without any control. Incidentally, Ukraine was already one of the world’s biggest arms sellers since independence when it started selling the Soviet arsenal it inherited. So the channels were already open. It was just lubricating them with more corruption! And of course the weapons are already appearing all over the world! Even in the hands of international terrorism!
Neither the US nor Nato after leaving Afghanistan with their tails between their legs are so stupid as to think they could win a war militarily on the Russian border! Where the US knew in advance that it could not deploy 50% of its military power on Afghanistan Men and guns! Even if any has transited from Afghanistan to Ukraine. And the same for the economic sanctions that carry on and affect the EU more than Moscow! What was also planned!
And the disinformation campaign – with ridiculous MI6 items like Putin’s cancers – will never end because US and UK don’t want to lose your’s faces! Even if at a political level they have already accepted defeat and alreay talking about negotiations like they never did in December 2021! What would avoided the current human catastrophe in Ukraine!
“Even if at a political level they have already accepted defeat and alreay talking about negotiations ”
You are mistaken.
Their “strategy” of “negotiations” is in hope to avoid defeat and thereby not acknowledge it, since they sought to prepare such an option by “mis-interpreting” notices of intent with ultimata in December 2021.
“And the disinformation campaign – with ridiculous MI6 items like Putin’s cancers – will never end”.
That is not inherent in the published framing of the notices of intent of December 2021, but as a function of its existence others decided to interact conditioned by their facilities , and partly why some “mis-interpreted” notices of intent as ultimata in December 2021.
More evidence that “America’s diplomats” are not as smart as they think they are, and that “Americans – being those sustaining the networks of coercive social relations not restricted to a temporary geographical or a temporary geo-political construct designated The United States of America or “The United States of America” – and that “translations” are never options, only interpretations are options as you also illustrate.
Another example of misinterpretation is to be found in Mr. Martyanov’s observations of 7th December 2022 “The Only Way To Win–Is Not To Play the game… namely ”the wiping of those smiles from their faces will not come through academic discussion and scientific reasoning” since academic discussion and scientific reasoning were components in the design, implementation, and evaluation facilitating “the wiping of those smiles from their faces.” not due to the sole agency of Mr. Putin, since sustainable “winning” is an oxymoron and transcendence a purpose.
Er .. folks the guys might act like a dumb, but the taxpayer founds are funneled to the MIC too fast for them to deliver on time.
It’s a comic duo , it’s not the ones cutting the onions you see whining on televisions.
Good analysis Larry…I like numbers and when it comes to ground forces I think Russia has the edge…US forces do have a considerable advantage in the air and somewhat of an advantage in numbers at sea however…at least according to one source:
https://largest.org/technology/air-forces/
US Air Force Total Aircraft Strength: 13,362
Russian Air Force Total Aircraft Strength: 3,914
https://largest.org/misc/navies/
US Navy Number of Ships: 415
Russian Navy Number of Ships: 352
You can always tell where a Nation’s military priorities are by where it spends its budget and as I have mentioned several times the US (an vicariously NATO) priority is in air domination.
In the UKR-SMO…Russia is the only air power and by default has air superiority. US/NATO planners are probably trying to figure out how the UKR can gain control of the air battle space because that’s really the only way they know (or have been trained) to win a modern joint-combined forces war…and as you and others have pointed out–NATO is running out of ground combat resources (and personnel)…a proxy war conundrum for sure.
Agree with most of the article but would just like to point out that Turkey (even if Erdogan is sitting on the fence) is still, nominally at least, a member of Nato. That makes Nato very far from being a ‘Ghost Force’.
“Only two possible outcomes?” I can think of at least one other possible outcome — Russia demilitarizes and de-nazifies Ukraine and ensures that a new government in Ukraine is not beholden to the United States and NATO. Peter, why did you not even entertain this possibility? Russia, by virtue of its size and technically sophisticated military (e.g., it has a fully integrated electronic warfare capability that NATO lacks) and arsenal of precision hyper sonic missiles and tanks entered the “special military operation” with some clear advantages. LOL! I’ve never read so much pathetic Russian propaganda in a long time!! Good thing Europe has finally recognized Russia for what it has been for the last 85 years…A terrorist state!