In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuanian banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force.
Lithuania claims it is simply abiding by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. After all, Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO. But that is the point. This is a deliberate provocation. It is laying economic siege to a vital interest of Russia. While there is no immediate danger to the Russian population of Kaliningrad, this is a flash point that could lead to an actual war as opposed to a special military operation.
What is the difference between a special military operation and war? In the SMO you leave communications, electrical infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and fuel depots largely intact. In the SMO you try to minimized civilian and military casualties.
War on the other hand is terrifying. If Russia opts for a war footing, the restraint that characterized its activities in Ukraine will be replaced by a full on attack on key military installations and assets in the region as well as the destruction of the communications, electrical, transportation and fuel resources of the adversary. This probably includes taking out critical satellite communications and intelligence collection systems of the United States and Europe.
Kaliningrad, formerly known as Königsberg, was put under Soviet control in 1945 according to the terms of the Potsdam Agreement, which was backed by the United States and Great Britain. The Russian people paid blood for this land in 1945 and are not going to relinquish it in the face of bullying or threats from the west. If you are going to poke a angry bear with a stick, you better be damn sure that bear is locked up and can’t get you. Russia sure as hell is not secure in a cage.
Harry Hobbes says
How the Russian Federation responds will be educational…
What’s the logistics of shipping goods via sea – if the RF Baltic Fleet is based there, that must be well mapped out in contingency plans.
Of course, there’s the risks, but surely nothing the RF GS hasn’t gamed out a dozen times, surely.
Lithuanian ? so far they been used as agent provocateur by US to attack china and russia with their stupid moves.. Now it come to this latest provocation , seem like all lithuanian are just as crazy as their leader when it come to russophobia (just as the resident lithuanian ‘green beret’ (lol) who run IO on SST)
the baltics seem to be in dire need of denazification and demilitarizatoin.
“The Baltics seem to be in dire need of denazification and demilitarization”
It’s looking like that’s coming, once The Ukraine is taken care of.
Once you join NATO, mainly through bribrary and coersion, you become a vassal of the US, an expendable appendage to be used and cast aside as need be. The Baltic states seem to be exceptionally eager to be stooges and playthings and ass-lick at the first opportunity….good luck Lithuania, you’re going to need it.
You’ve got to be pretty naïve to think that the US is in total control here. Have you heard of Seacrets Society? Have you heard of the Rothschilds who single-handedly got America to go fight in World War I? NATO is not run by the United States. The United States along with Europe is run by powerful families. Their worth isn’t valued by dollars or euros or any currency. They’re the ones who create the currency and run the game were all playing. The real problem are the secret societies that have run things for far too long. Look up the Balfour Agreement where the Rothschilds were able to single handily get America to fight in WW1.
Eric Newhill says
I have been expecting WW3 to commence within 12 months of Feb 24, 2022. US/NATO isn’t going to back down and neither is Russia. So it’s just gonna be war. I believe it’s a given. The only question is what is the trigger that jumps it off.
Yes, I’m sure the twisted idiot is proud of his clan’s actions.
yes that lithuanian idiot prefer the world to burn to satisfiy his genocidal russophobic soul. so typical of western chickenhawk , those who scream the loudest for war always the one not going to fight the war..
Eric Newhill, Your concerns/expectation clearly is shared by Russia, which has retained most of its forces in reserve, and has rotated its 200k troops moved into the area through Ukraine to get frontline experience against the best armed and trained NATO army in Europe.
European NATO army
and dont forget the russia never used their top of the line equipment in ukraine SMO , saving them for the eventual confrontation with NATO
Of course NATO never experience russia’s ability to hinder/distract/jam their whole eyes and ear and mouth as in overt war with NATO there will be total disruption on NATO’s ISR , Navigation and Communication whether land or air or space based
the whole concept of airpower doctrine will be LAID BARE and proven wanting when there’s minuscule aircraft available due to bombed airfield , disrupted logistics , unavailability of air tankers and awacs / EW planes.
This is clearly Washington instigated.
Russia could easily ignore them, say that they don’t recognize their authority or right to do this and go about their business while daring Lithuania or Nato to do something about it.
Russia doesn’t bluff but she is a master at calling others bluffs.
Clonal Antibody says
Lithuania imports most of its energy from russia
Lithuania is not a notable energy producer or consumer, ranking in the bottom five among the European Union countries. Nearly all of Lithuania’s energy imports originate in Russia, including crude oil and liquid fuels, natural gas, and coal.
Prior to 2009, Lithuania generated approximately 77 percent of total net generated electric power from nuclear sources. During that year, Lithuania exported about 58 percent of total generated electricity. However, at the end of 2009, Lithuania closed its last nuclear reactor and electricity ceased to be the country’s major export commodity. Lithuania’s nuclear power reactors were similar in type to those in the Chernobyl power plant in Ukraine.
Following the closure of the nuclear reactors in 2009, Lithuania became dependent on electricity imports to satisfy its demand. Although most of its 2012 electricity imports came from Russia (63 percent), Lithuania also imports electricity from Estonia (about 26 percent), Latvia (7 percent), and Belarus (nearly 4 percent).
Eric Newhill says
So Lithuania is as stupid as the US under democrat rule when it comes to energy policy.
Wondering…. if all of the sudden there was no Lithuania and no more Lithuanians, if anyone would even notice or care. My guess is, “no”.
Nick J says
Which particular hawkes in Washington cooked this up? It’s staggering that they assume the right to use the brain dead Balts to do their bidding, and those Balts would be idiot enough to do it.
Probably WEF stooges. Don’t care about their people like the degenerates in Washington.
There are numerous players beyond the WEF, which is as you say, a principle one.
Add to the mix, in no particular order:
The DC uni-party. A widening war can be used as a distraction from their incompetence and malfeasance. Another shiny thing to distract from election fraud, the imploding justice system, border chaos and unsustainable economic/debt problems. I think that at some point they will use it to further suppress political opponents.
The neocons. Anything, no matter how reckless or likely to fail, that may weaken Russia is in play for them. Their primary interest is Israel, hence a weakened Russia increases their ability to overthrow the Syrian govt.
Israel. I’ve press reports that Israel wants to supply gas to the EU in quantity. I’ve seen the gas fields in the eastern Med. I’ve read that they also want to seize southern Lebanon to gain full control of the Litani River. Both of these are sound motives.
A large scorecard!!
while the israeli hand run deep inside Uncle Sam’s ass , i doubt the ukraine theatre is from israeli supporter in DC. There’s multiple neocons / warmongers in DC , russophobes from eastern european , sinophobes , israeli servants and all have different primary goal.
Israel knew it lost syria already , they just want to hold off their total defeat by weakening syria. which US did so by stealing syrian oil and grain and putting the terrorist kurds in eastern syria.
once syria return to strength then israel will feel wrath of syrian.. The plan was to turn south syrian into similar fortress ‘forest preserve’ like the hezbollah’s south of litani river. Israel do not want another hezbollah type defense belt so near golan height. and Israel certainly do not want syria to amass massive inventory of missiles just like what hezbollah did.
Israel has their iron dome. Israel is protected. Plus, they have 90 nukes.
Brain Dead democRats and Re-pubics here in the USSA seem to do their “bidding” as well. I used to say “Hope for the best, Prepare for the worst”. Now, it seems wholly inadequate to Hope or Prepare. Sandcastles in the path of Tsunamis is the more accurate analogy. Mankind may survive, life usually does in the face of disaster, but this Insane NWO is the Plague. May God help us, though We clearly don’t deserve it.
My thought is that the Russians see the degenerate and perfidious NATO as a systemic threat that will not accommodate Russia and will not back off. Russia has probably been preparing for a confrontation for a very long time and the rejection of Russia’s proposed security arrangement along with the continued killing of ethnic Russians in East Ukraine was the final insult from the Western clowns. Lavrov’s words the other day were very measured but decidedly undiplomatic about the UK wanting to defeat and put Russia on its knees – his response was simply ‘bring it on’.
Or could this be a big game of charades so that we can go to war with China. Do you think Russia wants to strengthen China? It’s neighbor? Or are going to have another WW2 repeat where Russia sides with the Germans and then switches sides. Russia would much prefer to have America win in a war against China. I am beginning to think this is all smoke and mirrors so China invades Taiwan and we can take out China. If China beats the USA then Russia would be next or Russia would have to be Chinas bitch because there is no way Russia could beat China if China beats USA and Europe.
If Russia and NATO went head to head, NATO would get crushed.
Yeah, but the cretins in Washington and Brussel have this idea – what use are nuclear weapons if we dont use them?!
May God be with us.
There’s non nuclear option for weapons delivery from russia to CONUS cities inclucing white house , pentagon , CIA hq and other military sites all around US.
of course major NATO cities will be targetted , the ‘decision centers’ aka NATO HQ covert or overt ones.
and for a reminder , russia have air defense capable of shooting down nuclear carrying ICBM in their reentry phase. No other NATO cities have such defenses.
That’s the most asinine thing I’ve read on this comment section. I’m assuming you have special clearance to go and see the top secret weapons both NATO and it’s allies posses and then compare them to Russia’s top secret weapons haha! People can be so arrogant sometimes.
For anyone to act like they know who has the better military and weapons without actually possessing the power to access the most top secret weaponry is total out of touch with reality.
Deep down you know you don’t n is what you’re talking about lol
Guess another land bridge is needed to Belarus
A minuscule of a country, playing tough games. Oh God. We are doomed. Let’s hope in Kremlin mercy.
I don’t think Putin will go to war over this. Kaliningrad is not landlocked. Russia can ship goods there by sea from St Pete or other towns. As for taking out US assets there, Putin has already warned on that, so this might be an opportune time for taking them out. From what you, Mr Johnson, Col Macgregor and Major Ritter have said, Russia has won, the Ukrainian’s are out of significant ammo, and this won’t affect that. I think the US knows it cannot win either a conventional nor nuclear war with Russia. Therefore, I don’t see this starting WW3.
Washington and NATO have shown no inclination to be sensible in the past, I’m not seeing any signs that they will all of a sudden pull their collective heads out of the colllevctive asses now.
The problem as pointed out by Andrei Martyanov in his book, is the neo-cons actually believe their own fantasies.
We must rectify the (ongoing) 2020 domestic coup or become slaves to the OGUS. (occupied government of the US).
A simple but not easy decision.
Seamus Padraig says
G.O.G. = Globalist Occupation Government.
Yes and the neo-conns think fighting the USSR;-)
Lithuania’s decision to block land route is a game changer
Eric Newhill says
LOL. There you go. Now you have appropriately adopted Ritter’s use of semantics.
All these are former German Hanseatic league enclaves. Russia will eventually deal with all 3 of them, but I don’t think it’s critical at this juncture. Their time will come.
Factually, this does land-lock Kaliningrad and the Russians within.
And its yet another pressure point on Russia- will NATO/Finland now block Russia’s attempts to re-supply Kaliningrad through the Baltic seas?
Or will Kaliningrad now become part of negotiations? [i.e. trade Baltic Sea fleet for Odessa/Transnistria]
It’s not good to have this relationship festering in Europe.. if this drags on and everyone increases their military GDP over a period of time [rearmament], there’ll be tons of ready weapons and personnel- all looking for something to shoot.
Add the economic malaise, income inequality… existing fracture lines could easily bring nationalism to the frontier.
In St Petersburg this week this was said by Dmitry Rogozin, the chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Foreign Affairs Committee
“I would like to remind you that an integral part of the package of joint EU-Russia-Lithuania decisions of 2002-2003 to guarantee the transit of Russian goods and, of course, citizens of the Russian Federation to/from the Kaliningrad Region was the counter commitment of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation to ratify the Agreement on the State Border with the Republic of Lithuania. I remember this very well, because at that time I headed the State Duma Committee on International Affairs and was the special representative of the President of Russia at these negotiations.
If Brussels and Vilnius are proactively and treacherously destroying the package of agreements on Kaliningrad transit signed by them, which entered into force on July 1, 2003, then the European Union should understand the consequences of its suicidal decision for the legitimacy of its own eastern border.”
In effect Russia is saying to the US and the EU that if something as fundamental as access is broken in the Agreement then the Agreement as a whole fails. This puts the borders that were conditional on it at risk. In particular, the western border might need to be revised to allow Russia a land route access to Kaliningrad. This stretch of territory is well known as the Suwalski Gap.
If you think about it, this could become a royal pain for NATO.
Even more expense in an unfavorable location! European/US forces may have to move into and stay for however long Mr P chooses, just by him exercising a few units now and then.
All in a total futile effort by NATO to “look like” they are defending the Suwalski Gap, which they know they can not do!
Ever closer to the big bad Bear but a long way from Odessa.
Taras 77 says
No surprise here, beyond stupid does not go far enough but here we are, castration of nato/eucom with the find hand of us state dept/cia:
D.E. Murray says
Check out Dreizin – he says that Ukr has opened “gates of hell” with bombing of gas platform in Crimea, killing 7 civilians.
There will be hell to pay for this.
A shoutout to genius American policy makers Bush, Cheney and their successors who committed to sacrificing half a million American soldiers in an unwinnable war, and potentially entering a nuclear WWIII of annihilation, whenever a shithole country in Eastern Europe decides to pick a fight with Russia… great job!
Russia obviously has a long standing easement to cross Lithuania. I don’t think sanctions trump Russia’s easement rights.
Taras 77 says
Hitting those platforms with Russian civilians, to state the obvious, should be treated and prob will be treated as the war crime that it is.
Therefore, the ukes who ordered and conducted the crime will be brought before a tribunal and an appropriate sentence will be rendered and carried out: execution. i do not see any hint of compromise within the Russian steely resolve.
Really tired about hearing claims of war crimes on both sides, as if war is not something criminal in and of itself. In fact war is the breakdown of law of all kinds, criminal and civil.