Got to give credit where credit is due. Simplicius76 is an unidentified Substack writer who has written the best analysis I have seen of the tactical and strategic dimensions of the war in Ukraine and the upcoming Russian offensive. Russia is doing what it has done through history in the major conflicts where it prevailed — i.e., maskirovka (disguising its plans and movements). Russia is moving troops and equipment on fronts in the north, the east and the south. They are currently attacking in several different sectors, which is forcing Ukraine to redeploy frantically troops to try to counter new threats that are springing up like raging wild fires.
Here are links to four of Simplicius76’s recent articles. Must read material if you want to understand what has happened and what is about to unfold in the coming weeks:
His article, All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West’s ISR Overmatch?, provides terrific insights on how modern Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance systems have altered dramatically war in the 21st Century. Russia can no longer create and deploy an army in secret as it did with Operation Uranus, which attacked the German Army besieging Stalingrad from the north and the south and ultimately trapped “von” Paulus’ Sixth Army. But that does not mean Russia is incapable of hiding where it plans to strike or of deceiving Ukraine and NATO about its intentions.
I continue to believe that the increased military operations by Russia during the last three weeks are part of the offensive that many in the West believe will come in the Spring. The next couple of weeks will mark a watershed in the war in Ukraine.
Louis Hissink says
This can be best summarised by that ‘famous’ USSR-US solution to produce a writing instrument for use in space.
The US ended with a $1 million pen. The USSR used a pencil.
Yes, Andrei Martyanov talked about it. I could not find it anymore. THANK YOU
for bringing it up. 😎
LaidBack Guy says
Yes, and the pencil lead can break off, go floating around the space module thanks to zero gravity, and become foreign object damage (FOD) in some critical system like HVAC.
Also, according to this article below, the wood in those pencils was considered a fire hazard because the atmosphere was almost 100% oxygen.
Additionally, the development was supposedly funded privately by the Fisher company, and supposedly the Russians later used them after first using wax pencils:
I think the idea that a private company would fund the costs itself is plausible. I remember my parents buying one of those space pens decades ago as a novelty item. I’ll bet this was on the minds of Fisher when they took the risk of spending their own funds to design and develop the pen.
I think those of us on this blog are very capable of doing a little bit of research/due diligence to avoid potentially repeating fallacies.
well hell – if its on reuters then subject is closed !
Ken Thompson didn’t take his Daddy’s money and multiply it 100 fold, by questioning his pals in Government.
BTW. There is no such thing as a “lead” pencil.
k. talaat says
What did NASA use for writing before the Space Pen came on line? Reuters didn’t say.
“What did NASA use for writing before the Space Pen came on line?”
Typewriters. The monkeys were already trained on these.
Jack Gordon says
Yes, clearly yours was a VERY little bit of research, Reuters. Reminds me of the kid who did a research paper about Mad Cow Disease at the HS where I taught. His chief source was a joke Internet site and he announced in the paper that “Mad Cow Disease lurks in the background until it jumps out and does its thing!” That’s at least as probable as a pencil catching fire in space I guess.
the idea that they developed it on their own goes against the way the US economy works. NASA awards R&D contracts to companies to do work. And they insist on contracts so that legally, the company is on the hook. I have had many NASA contracts. What you are seeing is CYA for political fallout.
I call BS with LaidBack Guy’s post. 100% oxygen atmosphere would kill all astronauts in minutes.
There are no wood shavings from a mechanical pencil and I’m sure Russian cosmonauts can be trained to write without excessive pressure and deal with broken leads if they occur … it can’t be any more difficult than finger nail clippings. Whether the story is true or a myth doesn’t matter … the story still makes it’s point.
The USA used a pencil as well.
That internal pressure ball pen was marketed as “space age tech” gadget years later.
Remember when americans tell a story, its a story someone made up.
Its a good story and a great metaphor. However lets give credit to NASA. NASA was concered about graphite dust from the pencil causing electrical issues.
Russian weapons seem to be made for fighting more than Amerian ones.
one can make a pencil with actual lead oxide – and it is a lousy conductor.
yes – if you poke yourself in the eye with a fork (make a pencil out of explosives, say) it can hurt.
nasa can worry about whatever they want – self inflicted wounds dont count…
And here is another refutation of this wonderful pencil story:
One learns all the time.
Mike D. says
I have a feeling the US is going to have a series of air travel issues come up.
A substandard education system(amd getting worse fast) along with a lack of respect for real knowledge(readin, writin, mathmetik-spelling intended),
Diversity, Inclusion, Equity focus in hiring even for the most specialized job requirements is going to be paying off in the US for a long time. The culture and legal system will perpetuate it indefintely.
AdMo West says
Stealing Dreizin’s prediction, I see. Not kosher.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
This is an urban legend.
Mondo Cane says
I can outdo that. There’s a guy in a deep sea diver’s suit walking around at today’s Washington rally. A few Russian flags, a guy in a red communist theme’d costume with a small group of pro-war Ukrainians & flag behind him on the periphery, looking a bit dejected. No nazi rune though, unless it’s incognito. No CNN reporters either. I think those two are a tag-team these days.
A melting pot of religious and other right, libertarians, Bernie Sanders left, you name the opposition, it’s all there – all in a happy camper three-ring circus. How’d that happen, MSM? Did you drive them all together?
LOL. The Russians don’t have a choice. They have to do More with Less. The US does Less with More, perhaps because they live in a Hollywood-created fantasy world.
I find Slimplicius very good. But you have to read him very carefully since there is so much there. Also Black Mountain Analysis. And Big Serge. For day to day: Slavyangrad. Moon of Alabama. There a lot of sources out there. In this very complicated world war, you need to read all of them.
Some people have noted that the conflict in the Ukraine is “slow”. That is because it is not a war! Not as people in the West define in. From the outset, the Russians used a fraction of their resources. Even now, they are using fewer than anyone expected. That’s because time is on their side. And the longer the conflict continues, the greater social cohesion in Russia. Putin’s goal from the beginning was to restore Russia – not just “restore” actually — but to re-invent it as a nation. No easy matter. Look at the US as it flounders. Re-inventing a nation is achieved through propaganda, which inevitably fails grounding on the reef of hard reality. It is not mandated from above. Nations are organisms. They grow from the ground up. Takes time. Putin is also re-inventing Ukraine, which in the end will not longer be a country but part of Russia, as it was for centuries.
just saying says
This conflict is “slow” as much as WWI was slow, and is a “war” as much as WWI was one. Sheer death and destruction happening daily is beyond anything in recent history. Those that complain about the pace should get a one way ticket to the frontline.
Eric Newhill says
Well said, “just saying”.
It is a slug-fest of a war, a lot like like WW1. Lots of death and misery and muddy bloody trenches.
IMO, all of the high tech. “Simplicius” speaks to has taken us back to the future; right back to trenches, artillery duels and up close infantry engagements. The fancy stuff – like CAS- can’t operate enough to change the course of the war, lest it be quickly targeted and destroyed. It can do enough to keep the lines ore or less static, disallowing a big advantage to either side, but that’s about it.
This isn’t close to being true. Due to the fire 1967 fire in the Apollo 1 capsule that burned to death three US astronauts. The dead were Virgil “Gus” Grissom, America’s second person in space, Ed White, an Air Force lieutenant colonel, who was the first American to make a spacewalk, and Roger Chaffee, a U.S. Navy lieutenant commander.
After the Apollo 1 fire, NASA decided not to use pencils in spacecraft due to the fear that graphite particles could float around in zero g, enter electrical equipment and eventually cause an electrical short circuit and fire.
America does some incredibly stupid things. Trying to avoid burning up astronauts wasn’t one of them.
Larry. Read simplicius76′ article yesterday. Yes a great piece of analysis. Small point – with regards your post where you wrote “… Van Paulus’ Sixth Army” – possibly a typo and you meant von Paulus. This also is wrong. His correct title/rank at time of capture was Field Marshall Friedrich Paulus. No “von” – his family were commoners and never part of the nobility/aristocracy. A common error made by quite a few writers, including notable military historians. Read (I think in one of David Glantz’s books) that within Russia the error of giving him a title was made either shortly before or just after his capture as the Russians in the field thought all German generals had the title “von”.
Larry Johnson says
Thanks. Typo. Corrected.
True – Paulus‘s father was a bookkeeper. His WWI bio is illuminating – a very tough nut.
At the start of the War Paulus was on the General Staff – in charge of Logistics. When the plan for Barbarossa came up for discussion he argued against invading the Soviet Union. Reason? Logistics. He believed that Germany didn’t have the capacity, militarily and industrially, to maintain the invasion. Apparently a brilliant staff officer – but not a good formation commander.
General Friedrich Wilhelm E. Paulus was involved in the planning of Unternehmen Barbarossa from the early stages …
… and he proved to be an able commander at the Battle of Kharkov in May 1942.
And of course he “kind of” knew …:
As contrasted to Erwin Rommel who was a superb formation commander but failed his logistics test in Africa.Curiously it was November-December 1942 which proved the downfall for both commanders.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Paulus also lacked the moral courage to go against Hitler until right at the end.
Curiously, after release from captivity he settled in the GDR and became an East German politician.
R. Toppec says
@CharlieCanberra It is Field Marshal not “Field Marshall” as you wrote……….common mistake.
Marina jurry says
Есть прекрасная книга Ник. Шпакова Поджигатели, написанная в 50-х годах в СССР. Я прочла её в 90- е и была поражена – там как раз подробно написано как Паулюс пришёл к должности, в художественном исполнении, конечно. И там как раз говорится о его “низком” Происхождении, так сказать.
Keith Harbaugh says
Google Translate translates that into English as:
There is an excellent book Nick. Shpakova Arsonists, written in the 50s in the USSR.
I read it in the 90s and was amazed –
it says in detail how Paulus came to the post, in artistic performance, of course.
And it just speaks of his “low” Origin, so to speak.
Louis Hissink says
“with large, visible mechanized column pushes, they were instantly spotted, tracked, and decimated from long range.”
Sigh. Decimated means 10%, not 100%. Let’s not create another linguistic Tower of Babel.
The practice and definition of decimation comes from the Roman practice of disciplining disobedient formations by executing every tenth soldier repeatedly until they repented or ran out of soldiers.
bob sykes says
No. You are wrong. The Romans did use “decimate” to mean one tenth. However, usage has changed since then, and nowadays it means something the vast majority killed/destroyed or 90%.
The evolution of language is why no one can understand “Beowulf” in the original, or even much of Shakespeare. It is why the Bible has to be retranslated every once in a while.
Jack Gordon says
Nice response and so very true.
Stefan G says
For putting the meaning of decimation into more perspective:
The roman military term of decimation meant that 1 of 10 soldiers were killed. they were put into groups of 10 and then they had to draw a lot and the 9 soldiers who “won” had to kill their own fellow soldier. This was to discipline the soldiers, if they did not fight or held back. The message was: Fight and have a chance to survive or this will continue and you will surely die, but disgracefull by the hands of your own colleagues. The cultural backround is also important, because the pagen believes said that a disgracefull death meant to be disgraced by the gods and have died a death of great shame for which their whole family had to live in shame. So the reputation of the whole family was diminished or utterly destroyed and not just for a few years, but for generations. That made the decimation in the form the roman army conducted it so effective.
Man am I gratefull not to live in those times!
Generally, to decimate only means to put it simply, to reduce the quantity of whatever is meant to be decimated. This can mean 20 % or 40 % or up to 90 + x %.
100 % is not a decimation but annihilation also often spoken of as complete annihilation.
My father sometimes said to me at the dinner table: “The goal is not do decimate the meal but its annihilation!” Leftovers were not allowed.
The problem with the way language was used in former times is the interpretation within the cultural and timely boundaries of which we as modern people most often do not know enough about to do it correct.
Some is possible, as in “Beowulf”. I read a few works of Shakespeare in its original and was astonished how powerfully eloquent the language he used is. Thou I had to think heavily to comprehend some of the writings and some parts of the text were so puzzling to me that I had to look it up.
The pop-culture of our days is compared with what writers did in the past, well, let’s say trivial!
Stefan G says
I forgot, the bible does not need retranslation, it is to be read and interpreted within the context of the time it was written in.
Thou it is intirely normal to find meanings in the bible that had not been in the interpretation of former scholars. Which is what I believe you are refering to.
John Tillman says
The Bible has most certainly been retranslated in English and other languages, as they change. Middle English versions of the New Testament attributed to Wycliffe, from AD 1382-95, are more accessible when read than when heard aloud.
Even the Early Modern English KJV, 1611, is becoming increasingly obscure, hence the many fully modern translations.
Good show, Larry! Reading the routine rations of Fresh Fertilizer dished out by MSM can be numbing.
In contrast, the essays you highlight are enlightening, though the analysis of reconnaissance and electronic warfare took the measure of me.
VERY glad you presented it.
Hal Duell says
Once a century for the last three centuries, someone in the West has tried to subdue Russia. First it was Napoleon, then Hitler and now Biden. Each time they’ve had their arse handed to them on a plate.
I hope we get another century to think about that.
You can count in the Swedes with their failed invasion into Ukraine during the reign of Peter the Great.
Even before them, there were the Polish/Lithuanians during the time of the troubles.
The problem is this century we have nuclear weapons and USA or Russia will have no issue using them in an existential fight which ends life on earth That’s why our fathers and grandfathers did everything they could to prevent direct conflict. These new “leaders” are not fearing it. They mock and dismiss Putin and with good reason, he’s shown no backbone encouraging unlimited escalation and NATO participation. Anyway this time no one will win.
We're right on course to be thrown off Earth's horse. says
Meanwhile, western claptrap reaches new heights of insanity until the very END. (Nature’s way of cleaning house, I assume).
Putin “no longer has nuclear weapons,” writes the German BILD in its lead article.
“The problem is this century we have nuclear weapons and USA or Russia will have no issue using them in an existential fight which ends life on earth”
No nukes. No problem. Russia is calling the USA’s bluff.
“…he’s shown no backbone encouraging unlimited escalation and NATO participation…”
Disagree strongly. Your statement is untrue and on par with an MSM utterance.
Correct – this term (latin) means to reduce by 10%. The Romans (ruthless that they were) worked out that if you reduced (massacred) the population by just 10% then the whole society would collapse.
Hey, good timing, Big Serge is up with THE post I’ve waiting for since 2014, when it became readily apparent, to me at least, that by taking Crimea, the Russian Federation had surrounded Ukraine on three sides without firing a shot, in almost exact same way the 3rd Reich had surrounded Poland in the late ’30’s, and that meant it was inevitable, given what I know about the psychotic nature of my country, the world would at some point see, a Russian …
Lmao … Sorry for the caps, but I’m getting bored reading over and over again that war is about finding and attacking the enemy in Clausewitzian style (when the reality in Ukraine for the most part, has been about enemy going out its of way to find and attack the attacker), and then attriting him in the most grinding and monotonous fashion imaginable, with your old timey field artillery.
Because as the inimitable military philosopher Sun VerdunTzu said, so, so long ago: “When the enemy is large, make him smaller by fighting a long and bloody battle of attrition.”
Flip the map over, the one 2/3s of the way down that has the 12 big arrows on it, and tell me it doesn’t remind you of something. Hell, it’s almost a mirror image – it even has a long river running down the middle, in this case the Vistula and not the Dnieper, with a capital city on it.
The big differences, the way I see it; is one, the Russians have a firepower advantage of at least 30 or 40 to 1,* whereas the Wehrmacht’s advantage over Polish army was more like 4 or 5 to 1, and two, the enemy capital is no more than a two or three day march from any northern Russian jump off points, whereas in ’39, Warsaw was more like a two week proposition, no matter where the various German armies started from.
And as Big Serge points out, the Polish armies, all 6 of them, tried to retreat back to Warsaw, which is what most armies are wont to do when they get smashed, but the German plan anticipated these pell mell retreats, and they cut them off and encircled them, and forced all those trapped within the pockets that hadn’t been killed or wounded, to surrender.
Food for thought. Put it this way, when the offensive(s) come, if the Russians don’t surround Kiev first off, and make it IMPOSSIBLE for any man or women holding a gun to get in or out of the place, I’ll be flabbergasted.
*Hell, the Russian advantage at this point might be 100 to 1, or greater. I won’t even get into the absurd disparity in missile and rocket systems, or even bring up Naval power, but for f+cks sake, the Russian’s have an air force, and Ukraine doesn’t.
Larry, thanks for introducing us to Simplicius76. There was no better time to read his text “The Coming Russian Offensive 2023 – Part 1”, which breaks the myth of the number of Russian troops in the SMO. These days, the West is putting in a higher level of propaganda when it comes to Russian losses. Yesterday Antony Blinken said at the security conference in Munich that the Russians have 200,000 dead soldiers!? If we add to this the wounded, Ukrainians should be more than worried because they are being attacked and suppressed by zombies. But we can also look at this lie of Blinken from a positive side, because he is aware that Russia will win, and that is why he is creating a narrative about the high price paid for that victory.
There was still plenty of nonsense in Munich, enough for people to see what kind of limited politicians run the west. Here in the Balkans, we call all these characters “accidental politicians”. Ursula von der Layen said that the EU prepared sanctions against Russia two months before the start of the SMO. Notorious Annalena Baerbock said that Putin needs to “change his policy 360 degrees”, which means that she did not take math in elementary school. I really admire the calmness of the Russian political leadership, which rationally responds to the daily provocations of political dwarfs from the West.
That is an excellent article. But if Russia and the US get into an ASAT gunfight with missiles, the Kessler syndrome is not only going to make life hell on the remaining Chinese satellites but possibly make launching anything dangerous and pointless for generations. Space junk is already reaching concerning levels. That one Chinese ASAT test / show of force caused issues. Do it dozens of times and there will be a cascade effect.
After reading all this, go to Andrei Martyanov’s blog and have a listen to his overview of the Russian manufactured T90 tank and how it has been incorporated into Russia’s net centric capabilities.
Then I watch a clip (drone video) of what I think was a Russian T90 waiting for a Ukrainian tank to get within almost point blank range for tanks and fire. The round fired from the Russian T90 blew the Ukrainian tank off the road with one crew diving out taking cover in a bomb crater. The tank erupted into flames after being hit. Whatever that round fired from the T90 was that thing had serious consequences.
Simplicius is a very well-informed analyst and source provider who I highly recommend to anyone following the events in Ukraine. I admit I have been one of his original BitChute subscribers since early last year when he didn’t even have 200 at the time. He now has over 2,800 and is someone who interacts with commenter regularly, a real stand up individual who goes above and beyond all the mainstream poopaganda.
From a personal standpoint, the other day I decided to dust off my history degree, and came to a rather significant conclusion. In essence, the current war in Ukraine is none other than a chain of proxy wars between the US and the Soviet Union now Russia that started in Korea in 1950 exploded in Vietnam during the 60s to 70s and continued over the subsequent years in lesser conflagrations such as the 80s Afghanistan War and the Arab-Israeli wars. Both Iraq Wars and the 1999 Kosovo War however can be categorically excluded from this list, since Russia, weakened by the dissolution of the USSR and hijacked by US-Israeli agents in the country, were not in the condition to take on a sovereign stance which would have protected their influence in those areas.
The problem for the US and its allies is that when the Soviet Union has intervened more directly in these skirmishes, the US usually ends up with a bloody nose and leaves with its tail between its legs. If we want to refect on one fact alone to give an idea, in Vietnam where the Soviet Union intervened heavily aiding the NVA, the US lost 10,000 aircraft!!! I don’t know how many of you are aware of this historical fact or not, but in addition to the NV Air Force being trained by the Soviets, many planes during the war itself had actual Soviet pilots flying them. I’m pretty sure too that during the Yom Kippur War of 1973 which was another of these US-Soviet proxy wars, Soviet pilots were causing nightmares for the Israelis which lost most of its planes. Some estimates go as high as nearly 400 Israeli planes shot down. Even in non-war aerial engagements during the Cold War, the Soviets and their allies always got the better of NATO air forces.
Jack Gordon says
Very interesting. Could you cite your source for that 10,000 US aircraft loss in Vietnam? I’m not challenging your number, just seeking to enlighten myself.
Sure, no problem! It’s readily available on sites such as Wiki: losses are explained even by aircraft type.
lil abner says
Simplicious is a racist and rabid anti-semite. But his true love is the CCP.
just saying says
And he also ate your hamster.
Old Microbiologist says
Thanks a great set of articles that go the distance to explain what we are actually seeing how this “war” is actually going. We must limit our reading to reports and analyses like these from non-western sources which appear to be based on pure over-the-top propaganda it makes me cringe that anyone believes any of it – especially military people who should know better. Even pro-Russian sources fail to accurately describe the actual forces deployed. Personally, I already understood this from my watching since 2008 but I thought it was further along. Like all western trained military officers, I am used to the concept of shock and awe using overwhelming forces (that take months to years to deploy) and this is simply not happening…yet.
“First it was Napoleon, then Hitler and now Biden”.
Have you noticed the decline in the quality of the invaders?
Napoleon was a genius, Hitler had delusions of grandeur but he had the ambition to rule the world.
Biden is just a senile old fool who – if he shat himself – would think the weather has got warmer.
Yes, Biden is a senile old fool. But unlike the first two he’s not really running things – he’s just the figurehead. And he can’t even do that job properly.
k. talaat says
Biden reminds of crash dummy, after a crash.
Today the febr 19 there is an Anti war rally in washington DC.
A large rally dubbed ‘Rage Against The War Machine’
I wonder how many people participate.
Michael Droy says
So Russia’s 1 million army turns out on closer inspection to be 150k deployable on land troops, and more like 100k after reasonable rotation is considered.
So I wonder what that makes USA’s 485k + 180k Marines look like. Smaller I am guessing.
Jack Gordon says
Looking at the numbers you post here, can I suggest AA? Drinking before noon is always a bad sign….
Seems to me that when you know you’re beaten, the honourable thing for a military high command to do is admit defeat and just surrender to save your guys, and save your own sorry ass at the same time. Why hasn’t this happened? I can’t believe there are no honourable men in the UAF high command, or have they all been been purged? Seriously, it’s not like you’re surrendering to Genghis Khan or Vlad the Impaler. They’re just Russians for God’s sake. You lived with them, you know who they are, and word must have gotten back by now that they treat prisoners with respect. I just don’t get it. It seems like the entire nation is bent on self destruction.
Fulano de Tal says
“It seems like the entire nation is bent on self destruction.”
I think also exactly that.
I cannot stop wondering what a massive cognitive dissonance rules in Ukraine (I can only think that you hate the most what is similar to you).
The desire to have NATO missiles on your soil, aiming at your Slavic cousins, it is really worth this madness and destruction?
I really cannot get it.
just saying says
“I can only think that you hate the most what is similar to you”
You do get it. Convertites are driven by hate towards anything that reminds them of what they were before conversion. They need to prove that they are no longer what they were yesterday. We had lot of that stuff in Balkans troughout ages.
Few months ago I saw a short interview with a middle aged Russian soldier saying that he has a son fighting on the other side. His son told him that he will kill him if they meet. It’s pretty obvious that having a Russian father is creating cognitive dissonace in this young man’s limited brain, and he wants to fix it by killing him.
How USA is allowed to participate in this war to this extent is appalling and all acts of war but Putin apparently has no red lines which will lead to WW3 or Russian utter defeat. In order to prevent US and NATO involvement from widening the conflict Russia needed to get rid of all American satellites/ISR a long time ago but Putin still doesnt understand he’s in a war with his NATO partners who will not stop until Ukraine has nukes then if they are exhausted NATO enters probably with a first strike. The whole situation has unfolded as I predicted giving enemy a vote and weak slow roll with apparently no red lines. NATO is now blowing up Russian pipelines, gave first helmets to now long range missiles and F16s are coming and Putin’s weakness will lead to Armageddon.
Наталья Волкова says
There is always a deluded troll like you talking nonsense on independent and informative sites like these.
I’m not a troll but now Putin’s got Biden in Kiev and will have US troops before long. WW3 is seriously upon us because West smells weakness from Putin’s slow roll.
just saying says
West smells it’s own rot. WW3 has been upon us for a while, and is not caused by Putin’s actions but by decline of an Empire, as usual. Putin is rolling slowly because he knows that it’s a marathon and not a 100-meter dash. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and it surely did not collapse in one. USA is the Roman Empire of our time, and you have first row tickets to its collapse. It will take a while. Grab a snack or a drink.
i agree thats what the information war would have us believe – but i am not so sure as you that thats whats actually happening.
on the contraray – nato – by talking about the jets they wanna send, tanks they wanna send, ammo they wanna send but fail to actually send – just exposes itself as impotent (to india, global south, north korea, china) without trained troops, without industrial support and without ammo.
we can fly around and take pictures of stuff…but thats not news and the other side also has pictures of the same stuff…
” The whole situation has unfolded as I predicted ”
Putin should have long ago appointed noted btilliant strategist Field Mashall SteveM to overall command, then resigned himself, as atonement for his obvious incompetence. How he could not see this obvious fact is proof enough.
If Putin is allowing anything, he’s allowing the current US regime to cook its own goose in the public square.
i’m no military expert, but it seems to me that if Russia warned Nato as a result of Nato direct participation, though intelligence, targeting, training and weapons supply, that a non nuclear attack on Ramstein, for example, would take place at a given time, and to get their people out of there, and then devastated it with their missile forces, that European peoples, especially German, would wake up and smell the coffee, that the war is coming home to them. Would this not change the political and military calculus for Nato and the European peoples?
This is typical post i ve seen since the beginning of SMO. These kind of troll post always focus on the narrative ‘putin is weak’ ‘russia need to shoot at NATO’ ‘russia doomed’ ‘western superior weapon coming’
you trolls should get better narrative tag line , as these kind of troll post have been debunked long time ago.
Curt Nichols says
Mr. Johnson. You make me lazy. Not only are your commentaries excellent, but you also hand me on a silver plate a excellent additional source. Thank you, sir!
Meh. It is a decent article, but – a lot of these articles are excellent for military aficionados on the level of detail but on the strategic 30k foot overview, the situation can be described in much simpler terms:
In reality, this is the equivalent of what it boils down to: how do you communicate covertly if you know the adversary can hear every word of yours and see you all the time? This is the equivalent of the article’s main point – how do you conduct war when you can be seen all the time?
This has been the case ever since we have had satellites and AWACS etc. It is only that there were never two parties to the war that BOTH had the same capabilities engaged in a full-scale confrontation. Fighting Iraq was easy because Iraq did not have the same “all seeing eye” capabilities as the USA. However, conversely, all the omnipresent eye tech did not help USA in Afganistan because the Afganis did the conceptual equivalent to the US and Afgani govt forces of the same thing Russians are doing now to 404.
So, the Russians are operating under the assumption that they can be seen all the time and heard some of the time. This means that they have to have sufficient numbers to represent a threat EVERYWHERE, not just in one place. This comes at the cost of manpower, now you have to be in 4 places along the long front line at the same time in sufficient numbers in order to pin down enemy forces and look like you are doing something or about to do something. In these terms, it is an old strategy but even when under the all-seeing-eye, still as effective (if you have the numbers and equipment – 404 cannot use the same strategy because they have neither anymore).
At the end, as I said in the past, the “big offensive” will be an attritional grind on a wide front with a slow and methodical depletion of 404 resources to a point of breaking somewhere (!) and only then will we see a big arrow thrust when a gap opens “organically” at that point. 404 is almost there – they are now forced to ration forces and shuttle them between multiple fronts, having to pick where to reinforce first – in other words prioritize front lines and make decisions on what to save. This is why Bakhmut is such a good place for the Russian strategy and also why electricity was left on for the 404 – let them expend resources driving their forces around on trains all day. 404 also have to stretch resources along a long front line while Russia has the resources everywhere it needs them right there.
By the way, these articles are in direct opposition to what a lot of people like Brian Berletic have been saying – that HiMARS has not been an issue and that deep, precision strikes would be absorbed quickly by the RFA AD. As it is now hopefully obvious, the precision munitions were a game changer but only in a sense that they bought 404 time and forced RFA to re-think its approach. However, at the end of the day, they are also causing NATO to dip into its stocks of HiMARS ammo and well as launchers with no prospect of replacing them any time soon. So, even if NATO wants to engage in a direct confrontation to help 404, they will not be in a weaker position to do so than otherwise. Also, it is obvious that Russia’s AD was not adequate to match this threat, which may have something to do with a RU assumption that they may be engaged in a shooting war with USA – for which they ideally need to save their capabilities (AD, air force etc.).
In conclusion, 404 has lost the war at this point because they have lost the capability to mount offensive action for the 3rd time. Reconstituting this capability takes time, trained manpower and weapons of which the west has run out of. Once you lose the offensive capability and you are forced to defend a long front line from an enemy that is numerically superior and has advanced capabilities in air, land and water, well, 404 is now spending resources plugging holes. How long can that last?
Jim S says
I tend to agree with everything you write here. If I may add, Russia will not decisively commit reserves until it is sure of NATO’s response. The all-seeing eye works both ways, and I expect Russian SIGINT is very, very good. That will not stop her from exploiting any major breakthrough, as you argue.
UAF is in reality two armies, similar to the end-war WW2 German Army, a lower quality territorial army and a core of better-equipped mobile formations. As the latter become damaged the ability to plug holes diminishes rapidly (again, as you indicate).
(On an unrelated note I wish commentators would stop referring to Western arms as wunderwaffen, no matter how ironically. Real wunderwaffe is Area 51 stuff, and if things go south it will get pulled out in a hurry–by both sides.)
John Thurloe says
The whole world must plainly see the west to be profoundly defeated by Russia et al in the Ukraine. It must concluded that the Russian is the better soldier, better equipped and by superior officers. Russian hardware must obviously be seen to be much better than the dog’s breakfast of second rate junk the west ponies up for targer practice. That Russia stolidly withstood all sanctions which did more harm to the fragile states who issued them.
This is what the whole business is now about. The whole world is watching. The whole world sees everyone else watching. And drawing conclusions.
All Seeing Eye: Can Russia Break Through The West’s ISR Overmatch?
I’ll admit this sort of thing is handy for offense – like guiding a missile.
but for defense – which is what i think we re talking about – value is limited.
1) you only need to get the information once – getting the same information multiple times (overmatch) doesnt achieve anything.
2) having the information does not mean the folks looking at it can understand it. As in the search for the “single pane of glass”.
3) even if noticed – people can look right at a “fact” and not understand it.
4) the word “surprise” as in surpise attack – just means the ability to strike at a time and place where your opponent is most poorly postured/supported. this is still in force. i am not sure (as it depends on how the other side manages lots of information) if this makes “surprise” easier or harder. Can see it going either way…
5) just like the wests dominance in the information war basically ends up in leading the west around by the nose – that is the planning is forced to supportive the “narrative” vs the reality – flooding oneself with information can lead to decisions that can be manipulated by your enemy creating data in order to get you to do posture/position/expend how they really want.
6) when the UKR is outnumbered, out gunned, out logistic-ed, there are plenty of ways for RU to force the west into a crappy posture with plenty of resources to strike wherever the hell they want.
i call BS on this surpise is gone idea…
Eric Newhill says
Yes, Simplicius76 wrote a superb article. I don’t believe that either side in this conflict really fully understood how all of the tech he talks about would change the nature of 1st world peer to peer war. Both sides have been doing a lot of learning and adapting over the past year. We’ll see how it shakes out.
Ukraine and NATO have been openly stating that they are anticipating a big Russian offensive, as evidenced by several public statements. I assume that’s based on what they are seeing with all of that tech (+ HUMINT). They’ve had time to prepare counters. Wonder what those will be. One contingency, for NATO, might be to cut bait and go home, but I seriously doubt it. More likely they will escalate to frightening levels. We should all be very worried as to where this thing is headed – and expressing all of that loudly to Congress.
Time will tell... says
I don’t know. Borrell is out begging all to supply the tanks they promised asap and to donate every last bullet to Ukraine because ‘it’s critical’.
Sounds pretty critical to me. The response will tell the story. Is it a true ‘hail mary’ or just an excuse to finally bail on those lovely banderites?
We shall see.
Another good read…
Russia’s Economic Future – Semiconductors, Arms, And More
They claim Russia is reliant on the West but… is it actually the reverse? The eye-opening truth revealed.
Our leaders don’t understand our own history. How did American industry catch up in the early 19th century? By disregarding so called intellectual property rights! If we can do it, so can anyone else.
Christian Chuba says
Maybe it’s better for Russia to destroy high end NATO equipment for months on end rather than launch a big offensive. Let the U.S. and NATO send in tanks, artillery shells, and F-35’s and destroy it as it arrives.
The funny thing is that CNN will not realize we have bled to death until the day we keel over
Sure – and that might be the actual goal of positioning so many troops there – the ISR data is draining nato to its own demise = “SURPRISE”
IBIWISI aka I believe it when I see it. We have been down this road before with the “upcoming” Russia winter offensive.
thats what i understood Chuba’s comment to say…
Juan Valdez says
I don’t have any expertise in military matters. What I do know is that the quality of the political leadership in the west is sorely lacking. This is painfully obvious when I listen to Putin, Lavrov and others and contrast them with their western counterparts. It’s downright embarrassing – and very dangerous.
We are ruled by mass-murdering idiots who’ve drunk their own Kool-Aid. They’ve made Ukraine into an existential matter, when it clearly did not have to be. Now that we are apparently at a point where everything they’ve tried militarily and economically has failed, it seems to me to be the most dangerous moment in history.
I suppose we can talk of Hitler in his Berlin bunker issuing orders to non-existent armies, but imagine if Hitler had had at his disposal thousand of nuclear weapons. He wouldn’t have had to ask, “Is Paris burning?”
I think the Russians fully understand what they’re up against. We are at a point where we have to rely on their intelligence and humanity to prevent the incineration of the planet.
God help us all.
A singing lesson in a normal Ukrainain school, with subtitles.
What is remarkable for me is the absolute, innocent sincerity.
One that was irradiated by EuroMaidan and which also was reported from WW2 banderites letters to their families.
Alexander Rogers (a Ukrainian who left Ukraine after the Maidan) commented on this song at school
“Sweet” Nazi creature in a sarafan, singing a cheerful song “Moskals on knives.”
“Sometimes they accuse me of getting carried away. Well, yes, their wives were not shouted “Death to Muscovites” in the back. They shouted to my wife. They were not threatened that their children would be tortured in front of them. They threatened my children.
I’m not vindictive. I’m just angry and I have a great memory.
And not only for themselves, but also for all those who can no longer say anything, because they were brutally killed.
I am the voice of the dead. And I want retribution.
After all, it’s a matter of protecting society from Nazi bastards. In order for normal people to live in peace, society needs to be cleansed of them, as thoroughly as possible.”
UPD. The video for non-telegrammers: https://emalm.com/?v=MxlvC
And do not tell me that we are fraternal peoples, you butchers!
I no longer have family there. And Russia has long been gone.
Good evening, we are from Ukraine! And we spit on your ruins.
I will ask, where is your freedom? You will ask, where is sugar?
Cut the Muscovites! Cut the Muscovites!
Where to hang a Muscovite? Well, of course, on a branch!
Their pride already hangs there, as well as their awareness,
Sheep brains that don’t work – and everything else on the list of what makes one human,
For the only thing they are capable of doing is watching movies on the TV.
For whom the bell tolls says
Dearie, never bring a knife to a gun fight.
Your sort was never brothers to the Russians to begin with.
Your sort was the detritus that Hitler fed full of foolishness.
Now you have new chefs…… but the same foolishness.
Enjoy the meal. You’ve done your best to make it your last.
There are no more refunds.
Carlton Meyer says
Keep in mind this war has greatly weakened NATO too, most ammo and much equipment is gone, plus confidence in the USA.
It’s an odd war because those big slow NATO recon aircraft would not dare come near the fighting in a real war because they are easy targets.
Sweden mostly solved the counter radar problem with its Giraffe design, but no one has copied it. When it sees an incoming missile, it just shuts off and ducks.
I wrote about the demise of the tank in 2017:
Tanks are still valuable, but must be lighter and keep their distance while providing long-range direct fire support, as this video from Ukraine shows.
What armies need is a lot more SPAAGs:
…and lots of light truck mounted scouts, as that author noted about “technicals”
Will the US Army adapt to this? No, too much corruption to change the historical funding lines. Contractors pay retired Generals and Congressmen to keep their gravy train going.
k. talaat says
Thank you Larry for a couple of hours of informative and thoughtful reading of the linked articles.
When one considers the definition of Engineering as the application of science to the optimum conversion of nature’s resources …, you can’t help admire the Russians when one compares both our nations weapon systems budgets (substract cost of operating bases.) The Russians do much more for their country with much less. This does not disparage our US engineers, I am one of them. However, I do take issue with the financial psychopaths and their perfumed princes of the Pentagon who know nothing about engineering or patriotism, and who have monetized our country’s national defense as a means of extracting taxes from working Americans.
HMB: (hold my beer)
i will disparage them (the americn engineers ) for you then…
– quality of the education has been on downhill trend for many decades both in terms of the science and the professional ethical standards.
– if you dont like what you see from the financial peeps then you have to rise up. you may lose your job, “never get promoted”, etc but thats the price of integrity…
– if you see politics driving the science you have to say something (again integrity).
– check out john Boyd’s story with aircraft design
Meanwhile, here’s how Ukraine is “resolving” its diminished supply of ammo:
Ukraine targets Donetsk with massive shelling – monitor
Kiev’s forces have launched a rocket attack on the city of Donetsk, a local organisation monitoring Ukrainian strikes on the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics said on Sunday. In just two minutes, a total of 40 projectiles were fired at the Russian city, using multiple rocket launchers, the statement claimed. …
TOS-1A SOUL-TAKER CONTINUES CREATING CRISPY CRITTERS OF ALL WHO DARE OPPOSE IT
As once again, we watch a one lone rocket being fired into an indeterminate beyond. Simplicius76 does sarcasm! Love it.
What is the Russian Federation’s advantage in MLR systems vis a vis the Ukraine Republic, 1,000 to 50? Something like that.
Imagine if Robert E. Lee had such an advantage, do you think he would say, “no, no, no, we mustn’t crush this enemy as quickly as we dare, to better prepare for the greater enemy that waits impatient for us in the all-encompassing theater, let us instead loiter on this spot, and engage those directly in front of us in pointless and fearsome struggle, and should the greater enemy arrive midst the chaos of battle, we can rest assured all our senses are previously alerted.”
I don’t think so. As long as the numbers weren’t absurdly long, Robert E. Lee would never hesitate to attack anything with the intention of annihilating it, because that’s what was always his first – and really only – martial inclination.
Destroy the enemy. Then move on to whatever comes next. Could be Sunday church, or it could be another existential battle to the death.
Note: I was thinking today, now that Simplicius76 has a substack, maybe he will be the first of the armchair analysts* that I respect, to weigh in on what the Mammoth Do Nothing Column to the West of Kiev was all about. Remember that thing? It was huge, and it sat there in the wide open for a month or so, just toasting weenies and roasting marshmellows while waiving hello to American satellites, until one day it disappeared, never to be seen again.
I still say its purpose was to unfold like an accordion, should the need arise, and stretch north to south as far down the west side of the Dnieper as time allowed.
It was loaded to the gills with all sorts of surface to air – including a shit-ton of S-400s, I do recall – and it seemed to me the right move, establish the first line of the multi-layed air-defense system as far to the west as practicable, and should Nato decide to go full psycho and attempt to establish a “no-fly zone,” it might then be even possible to keep pluggin’ along with the SMO on the eastern side of the first layer.
I mean, have we not learned from this war, that if the entire Russian air force has been damn near grounded by a few scattered S-300s, what chance do American fighters have flying against even one dedicated layer of the exponentially more advanced, S-400s?
The S-400 is … the best selling weapon system in the global marketspace for a reason!
*Hardly derogatory, if anything a compliment. I now live in world where a beribboned four star American general can go on CNN and tell Anderson Cooper with a straight face, that in the hands of the right babushka, a Molotov Cocktail can be a lethal anti-tank weapon.
I could give a shit these days if a dude vlogs or blogs in a uniform, a suit, or in his pajamas, if he knows what he’s talking about concerning military matters, I listen.
Mark j says
The ground of Ukraine is flat. It’s not Vietnam, nor is the topography Afghanistan.
As long as there is conflict…nobody will be able to occupy and hold the flat ground.
The good fence good neighbors in flat ground has always been political accords… generally bordering on river or minor mountain range. NATO and the empire of lies makes sure there is no accord…. no peace…no treaties.
Diplomatic solutions seem out of reach. That leaves brute military force [RUs hold card]…and satellite warfare. Eliminating the GPS systems, the comms… not that big a project to put the entire EU in a sky black out. All the cables have long ago been mined. Be down the SWR and smoke signals. China has a very aggressive launch program..they have lots of tools up there.
That would probably be a better outcome than bringing in the submarine platforms.
Taras 77 says
I tend to be very concerned as to what the crazies in the basement, nuland, blinken, sullivan, cia/mossad/mi6, et al will do when ukraine totally collapses, as it will, and zelensky,if he lives, goes to his mansion in florida to count his billions.
These crazies are not known for backing off, as delusional as they are; do they go to the preemptive nuc strike which surely the Russians are prepared to defend against. Or do they go to the nuc false flag on pre selected targets with the aim of kicking in the nuc war door.
They also do not exhibit any indication that they fear or care about the consequences of any of their destructive actions.
The situation does not bode well for the world but that is stating the obvious.
BTW, Ben Wallace says over on RT that Nato does not have “operational tanks”, many tanks in inventory, yes, but very few operational.
Tom Verso says
Another brilliant analysis of the amazing might of Russian military similar to Andre M. et al
But no explanation of why Russia has accomplished so little in year of fighting against a 3rd world army. A year later the people of Donets (spelll?) city are still dieing at hands of UA.
Also no explanation of the virtual absence of Russian Air Force which presumably could obliterate UA defenses and artillery concentrations.
Neither the Russia nor the US wants their expensive planes shot down in a proxy war. (Except for the feverish Senator Graham in the US.
Tom, the Ukrainain military was not a “3rd world army”. Where do you get that from?
It was/is fully trained to NATO standards (which have been shown up as next to useless) and was the largest European military bristling with the latest weapons, surveillance, and indocrinated battalions.
just saying says
A 3rd world army that could have easily roll over any army in Europe except Turkish and Russian one. They had over 1000 functional tanks (over 2000 if you count those that needed some work done). 1st world armies like UK and Germany can’t muster a hundred each. The whole of NATO sans Turkey and USA don’t have 1000 functional tanks.
Russian Air Force is kept to the side, as a deterrance. The only thing where NATO has obvious numerical advantage over Russia is air force. Losing too many airplanes might encourage NATO to try doing something stupid like enforce some kind of no-fly zone.
classic ‘concern’ troll pretending to be pro russia but inserting lies inside his post.. so obvious
Oblomovka daydream says
On Moon of Alabama I read a comment stating that ‘Simplicius76’ = ‘Nightvision’, a Mob barfly who used to post excellent sitreps on Moon of Alabama. But then he suddenly disappeared.
Nightvision, yes. Thanks for that, I couldn’t remember the name. It’s how ran into Simplicius76, Nightvision’s sitreps always contained three or four links to the Simplicius76 Bitchute channel.
Just went back and read a Nightvision sitrep from April 30th. I’m no expert, but the styles do seem similar, mainly due to the complete command of the subject matter and the detail involved, so it seems to me the chances that Simplicius76 = Nightvision are somewhere between very good to excellent?
Maybe we’ll find out.
just saying says
Now that you’ve mentioned it, I remeber starting to watch Simplicius76 (aka December1991) BitChute channel after it being featured in excelent sitereps on thesaker.is site.
more likely it is different person who either work together to cobble up and digest / analyze information , or multiple ppl behind the scene worked the analysis and one person the front man to publicize the info..
or it is intelligence operation disguised as amateurs designed to spread truth or disinfo depend on their purpose at the time of their post ?
just saying says
It’s Nightvision from thesaker.is.
He said something I’ve thought myself even before this war broke out. If a major war breaks out between Russia and the U.S. the satellites of both countries will be quickly destroyed, jammed, or otherwise rendered mostly useless. When that happens, the GPS guided munitions will be mostly useless.
It will also have a pretty big effect on regular U.S. artillery as that all the guns are laid now using GPS. I’m sure they still teach the old fashioned way of laying a battery but I doubt it’s practiced much. That will have a real impact on a lot of the shoot and scoot tactics practiced. A GPS gun or battery can literally roll up on a position, get the FDC data directly input into the system, and fire in seconds. Roll out and do it again. Without GPS, a laying a battery takes more like half an hour or more and involves survey equipment. You can still roll out in a hurry but you won’t be able to fire again nearly as quickly. So, in order for artillery to be responsive and useful, it’s going to be a lot less mobile and therefore, a lot more vulnerable. And of course, it will be firing mostly dumb munitions as that the only other way to guide bombs and shells is with laser designation.
That’s just one example. The war will very quickly go back to 1960s to 1980s level of industrialized warfare. With mostly dumb munitions. It will quickly become a numbers game at that point and the “less advanced” more traditionally industrial Russian economy is much more suited for producing those sorts of weapons.
I think that a take out of US and Russian Sats might make so much debris that ever thing up there would be destroyed.
If not, the Chinese could just give the Russians the frequencies and codes for their Sats
Vallhalla Rising says
Dang…I’d give Simplicius76 an A+++ for analysis…he provides “knowledge” not just data.
Here is my big question….”What does success look like to Russia…what is the SMO end state beyond the two stated objectives: “Denazification” and “Demilitarization”? Maybe Putin will give us some insights during his speech next week.
Here’s a thought…NATO is on the ropes…isn’t it in Russia’s strategic interests to keep bleeding them? “Never interrupt your enemy while he’s making a mistake” and NATO is making plenty of them.
We shall see…
The usual suspects says
I suspect, from my contemplative bubble afar, that by now most do realize that Russia’s not fooling around, and that it will continue as far as the Dnieper, leaving Odessa in Ukraine for now, and then it will issue a final ultimatum. Accept the current reality on the ground and back it with agreements signed in blood, or Russia will just keep truckin’ on and next truck stop, Odessa and a landlocked Ukraine.
But hey, suspicions are a dime a dozen.
Vallhalla Rising says
Agree…Odessa is a strategic gem…I don’t doubt Russia’s resolve…whereas US/NATOstan resolve can change every 4-8 years at the very least.
Destructive children in high places says
Weather report please. What is snowpack depth in uke now? What affect on vehicles in theater?
Spring offensive: before mud or after mud? Eternal question.
Why wait if snow is navigable and ground frozen? Are rivers frozen enough for crossing or flowing water inhibiting this?
Go before spring if possible.
The sooner this over the better for all. Then create west Ukraine and east Ukraine (or whatever they want to call it) and end this mess.
Poison Frogs says
Bakhmut 14 Day Extended Forecast
You can input any other location you wish
Destructive children in high places says
Yes too late I see by Temps at least. Waiting for post mud, difficult to determine snow and ground thaw conditions there.
Taras 77 says
This “may” be an update that has not already been posted: it does reference a line of buses with wagner troops, as posted above at beginning of excellent article:
Agree 100%, this source has excellent detailed info/analysis! Thanks, Larry!
If you know that your enemy can see you; show him what you want him to see.
Poison Frogs says
If the past is of any guidance, so far Russia did nothing from what was expected of her by the ALL (military) analysts. So, I see no point in making any predictions, because it will likely to be wrong. By now, I’m even not completely sure that SMO has mainly a military signification. It seems more directed to the economic dismantling of the “west”, and directly fight against the USD stability.
However, these economic targets can’t be achieved over night, since the USD system is resilient, and there are many players in the game, some only partially aligned with Russia’s goals.
One other Russian goal is to increase its professional military to the numbers comparable in the US, and that is supposed to be done in 2023. The new contract military has to be put together, then trained, housed, armed, clothed and many other logistics. That can’t be done overnight, either.
So, all of the above, points to a long process, with an attrition type of war in Ukraine more appropriate for another year, at least. But let’s wait for the Putin’s address on February 21st, for more ideas about where SMO is going, besides denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
just saying says
Yep, Putin has been obviously playing the long game, for a long time (but no one was paying attention to his speeches in the last decade or two). A few months ago he even said that this is going to take a while (refering to the whole war with The West, not just combat operations in the former Soviet Republic of Ukraine).
This guy is intelligent and has a lot of time on his hands to pour over open source documents… probably alot from the dark web….but using logic and precedent supported by alot of real time social media thanks to Ukrainian TikTok narcissism…he probably dropped out of sight from online public streams to work up an income stream subscription platform….. Fact is all official information.. wether from the Western or Russian sources are weaponized…to support a particular narrative…that in turn support strategic interests. I’ve been blown away…and many Reddit TikTok retards literally blown away by shocking shocking operational security regimes….the Russian army is very tight lipped about unit deployment and their releases are heavily vetted first..which gives a many week or months lag from realtime. I think recent Russian exercises dealt with space based NATO surveillance by cutting staging and deployment times of Russian units…. remember that Russia has the capability to blind NATO intelligence ga
Gathering capabilities with directed EMP electronic warfare capability…read up on the USS Donald Cook incident in the Black Sea
The US Navy has been working on this, too, since then. We got buzzed by them hiking near Lake Quinault one day. Really scared us and the wildlife. (I don’t think they were using a weapon at the time. It was just the roar of the jet.)
At the risk of over saturation, Simplicius76 lastest, from earlier today. The offensive(s) apparently, are about to commence.
SITREP: Update 2/18 – Major War Confirmed Imminent
Eric Newhill says
Another good article. The Russians just might do it this time around. One of my theories is that they have deliberately been testing the waters over the past year (while desperately hoping for a peace settlement). Dipped a toe in here, went in up to the waste there, backed out, started down the stairs in the shallow end again – but learning all the while (the tech, the politics, the tactics).
Some of what Simplicius speaks to as evidence could be maskirova. Put a field hospital up here, stage missile launchers there, make the enemy think that is whee the offensive will come from, then move it all at the last minute.
” … while desperately hoping for a peace settlement. ”
With the “agreement incapable” West you forget to add. ;–)
I think the offensives are coming if for no other reason than the Russian officer corps will insist upon it. If the war had ended back in April or March, they could’ve held their heads high; they did what their political class asked them to do. On short notice, they launched lightening offensives everywhere while heavily outnumbered, and for the most part, they acquitted themselves well.
But if the war now suddenly ended, with let’s say an infamous “20% solution,” after 10 months of the entire world watching the Wagner Group, the Donbass militias, and Chechens doing all the fighting and dying in their stead, how would that look, historically speaking, for the Russian army?
It could not look worse.
Eric Newhill says
Excellent point. You have persuaded me over the edge and into Blitzkriegville with it (seriously). I can relate.
That was almost too easy.
I think the politicians would support the officer corps in that decision for basically the same reason. Putin, though, appears to me to be a touch on the wimpy side. I guess he has to go along with it [Blitzkrieg], or be replaced by someone who does more than ride horses while shirtless for photo-ops to appear macho. IMO, Putin’s replacement would not be someone the west would like at all. The west should be thanking their lucky stars for Putin and not trying to remove him. Too late now.
The other thing is, unless they are a pathetic anamoly, like all professional soldiers throughout history, this current Russian officer class wants to prove itself in battle.
The Ukraine represents an opportunity of a lifetime.* Glory awaits – and by glory I mean nothing more than a chance to test one’s skills and talents against a worthy opponent, instead of honing and developing those skills for twenty years, to practice, practice, practice, only to then head off into a soft retirment, without ever knowing if you were equal to the challenge of performing well, or even brilliantly, in a real game.
*Unless the future stars magically align, this will be the last conventional war of note we will see on this planet, and I have to believe more than a few Russian officers, at all levels, are aware of this, and have plans on making the most of it, and will express their disappointment if the plug gets pulled on the eve of the only game they will get an chance to play in.
In this lifetime anyway. Once you are warrior they say, you are a warrior forever. Ask George Patton, who undoubtedly is a tank commander in Ukraine. On which side? Irrelevant. Throughout his many life cycles, sides didn’t make a damn bit of difference to George. Being in the fight was the only thing mattered.
“Putin’s replacement would not be someone the west would like at all.”
That’s the biggest farce in all of this,isn’t it? The odds of the West finding a more “trusted partner” than Vladimir Putin, if they ever existed at all, are gone now.
Poison Frogs says
“We must quickly increase and accelerate military supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine is in a critical situation in terms of ammunition, this problem should be solved within weeks. It cannot be solved by joint purchases of ammunition, since any orders will now be at the end of a long list of orders that EU countries have already placed. ***We must use what we have, what the member countries have***, which will then replenish these reserves through joint supplies,” Borrel said.
At least, now, we know why the Russians didn’t move the front line for almost one year. The demilitarization of Ukraine and NATO is working well.
'Special' Classes in PolySci says
Borrell is seriously retarded. How does the EU choose such people? I know how the US does it but always wondered how the EU does it.
Fulano de Tal says
We are a colony (Europe). You cannot expect that in the colony we choose more wisely that in the metropolis.
The EU is composed of two things : Old politicians too knowingly corrupted to continue working in their own countries and young politicians still not corrupted enough to be used by their parties in their own country.
In the end , EU institutions are kind of a marmalade of green and ripped fruits, they put loads of sugar but it’s still awful …
“Misdirection is the key to survival.
Never attack what your enemy defends, never behave as your enemy expects, and never reveal your true strength.
If knowledge is power then to be unknown is to be unconquerable.”
Admiral Mendak, Romulan Navy
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Thanks for the link. He’s definitely the anti-Maryyanov: someone who knows what he’s talking about and doesn’t pose as an oracle whom it is blasphemy to dissent from. We need fewer gasbags like Martyanov and more like him.
Eric Newhill says
HMS Terror says
Simplicious’ (love the name!) essay is all about conducting a war when “surprise” and “secrecy” in the normal sense of those words have been taken off the table. In answer, I come back to the chess analogy I used a few articles ago.
In chess, everything is on the board and the current position of every piece and all the prior moves are fully known to both sides. 100% informational awareness. They’re both looking at exactly the same thing, but they’re not necessarily seeing the same thing.
Chess games, like wars are won at the strategic level. Assuming the two players are both very high level, they will be similarly conversant with all the strategies used through the history of the game, and they spend countless hours training to recognize them and the variations on them that have been implemented over the centuries of play.
So, how does one of them win? How does a Magnus Carlsen win 125 (iirc) games in a row?
The secret is, of course strategic ambiguity and/or disguise. The winning player implements his strategy in such a way that his opponent either doesn’t recognize it, or mistakenly perceives it to be something different than the strategy actually being implemented.
Reputedly, Gerasimov is a master of strategic ambiguity and disguise. We hear 100 predictions, ranging from armoured blitzkriegs on any of half a dozen axis to no offensive at all, from 100 pundits on what the Russians are gonna do next.
I suspect we’ll be listening to similar discussions a month from now.
Tolstoy, in an interview with French journalists, briefly summed up all the arguments on the topic of what Russia is striving for: “Our strategy is that you do not understand our strategy.”
Indeed, for a year now we have been witnessing the convulsive movements of the NATO countries, accompanied by desperate cries of the Russian army, which is suffering defeat, and cries of inhumanly cruel Russians who are retreating, retreating and retreating, surrendering cities and suffering losses in excess of the entire warring contingent.
Two mysterious words: “denazification and demilitarization”. Whom? How? Where? When? Where will we get food next?
R.S. About the middle of autumn, I stopped reading almost all pro-Russian and allegedly pro-Russian military bloggers and correspondents who create white noise and don’t really know or understand anything.
It’s one thing when people work for the common good, it’s another thing when they work for themselves, for their own personal material interest and image. The latter turned out to be an order of magnitude more, despite the fact that they have well-known names and pseudonyms in telegram channels, blogs, websites, on television, where they sell their faces.
Surprisingly, I found refuge on this site, in the camp of “enemies”, where I am interested, where I agree with most ideas and opinions, where I can read something new and hitherto unknown.
(Terrible clumsy double translation. Sorry.)
Eric Newhill says
But in chess, both players also start with exactly the same amount of resources and exactly the same resources. There is no way to establish production of more rooks and bishops, as needed, to overwhelm one’s opponent. The quality of the players (= military leadership) is the sole (?) deciding factor. Logistics don’t come into play.
Also one cannot “win” by going crazy and throwing over the table and burning down the room – or at least making a plausible threat of doing that.
lil abner says
I used to comment on this Simplicitous BitChute. I came to understand that this guy is a rabid anti-semite and generally racist. The majority of his commenters are virulently racist and ugly anti-semites (the kind that celebrate the idea of burning random jews in ovens type of sickness), that he makes clear he is in close agreement with. What really drove me away was his love and support for the CCP. Know who you are in bed with Larry.
Eastern European Khazarian Jews are not Semetic so your rant has no basis in truth.
Thank you. A scientist and a scholar. Kinda throws a shade on the whole dog and pony show.
All Nazis begin their march by pretending to be a victim of aggression, shedding tears, pitying themselves and making everyone around them sympathize with them. But this is just an information campaign to cover up their own aggressive intentions to exterminate other peoples.
Sounds like the behaviour of a certain tribe of people that don’t have foreskins.
just saying says
Everything in The West has gone down the drain, including trolling. Make some effort, dammit. You could say that he misgendered his neighbour’s dog, or disrespected a Bandera sympathizer in Youtube comment section, or that he removed Ukrainian flag from his Twitter profile.
Eric Newhill says
Anti-semite or not does not change the value of his assessment. The assessment should stand alone. We cannot apply purity tests to sources to see if we are allowed to read them and ponder what they say. Way too much of that in this modern world.
The only way such a thing could impact the value of the assessment is if he became so emotionally unhinged by hatred that it clouded his judgment and ability to accurately present facts and to reason out what they mean. You have not presented any evidence that that is the case.
I read the ´All Seeing´ article just now. Wow! Thank you for pointing it out.
It is a good article. It reminds of the the Vietnamese tactic of “grab them by the belt buckle” to negate the US bombing their positions during a firefight.
I saw an article a few months ago of Iran testing a satellite that could grapple another satellite with the purpose of de orbiting the offending satellite. If missiles can shoot down missiles, tracking the lens of a moving satellite is not out of the realm of possibility.
Opening multiple small fronts along a large front with a punch force well back and out of range that can move up into action in a few days seems a reasonable solution. The punch force can come in and hold the territory.
The Ukraine is in deep trouble with their reliance of the worst crop of leaders coming out Western nations in the history of the world. That is their greatest weakness. They have a long history of not completing the mission, pulling back, washing their hands, and acting like they did nothing wrong.
It seems that leaving behind chaos and disintegration is their greatest skill. That is why I call them the Death Cult. I am sure the Pentagram is taking this opportunity to train on and use their toys to the fullest extent possible.
What could have been easily avoided is reality. Poland is moving to draft men 60 and under to beef up its ranks. The old men may be running the information space of the future in these new times we live.
Maybe someone just watched ‘you only live twice’ and think it is great idea to make up story about satellite snatcher…
please be aware there is NUMEROUS article demonizing Iran by hilariously claming this and that.. it is the ongoing propaganda farce campaign designed to put iran into this ‘demonic nation should be destroyed’ mindset by certain small european colony in the place where Jesus was born.
any kind of ‘news’ or ‘article’ about iran from western media should be regarded as propaganda nonsense
His articles seem to be good.
But most of the presented ideas have been published long before him on Black Mountain Analysis by Aleks.
Probably would not be seen by others, too late to the party… But still…
I’d like an advance from antive English speakers is “naked” can normally be used when describing area/land/environment, in the meaning “clear to see”, “unimpeded recon”, etc.
Because my gut feeling tells me (maybe absolutely wrong) that this should be worded as bare or baren land, while “naked” implies an action of undressing.
But maybe i am totally wrong…
Thing is, i had a premonition this “simplicius” guy is actually ethnic Ruissian, maybe ex-Soviet emigree commanding a native-grade English.
Then i read “Khakovka” – a pretty natural blunder for a foreigner but not for a Russian, and reversed my opinion.
Now i read “Additionally, enemy intelligence notes that we have deployed 6 Iskander missile launchers” – anf i am wildly swining yet again…
what is your point exatly ? are you the same arioch that kept posting nonsense in smoothie’s blog ?
I asked a question if “naked” as used in “the signal heavy, ‘naked’ modern environment” is a natural choice for a native English speaker
just saying says
My native language is Slavic, and uses same word for naked person and land. I could have easilly made same mistake of writing naked instead of barren.
Why would you think that he is native English speaker in the first place. I always thought of him as Slavic and from ex USSR region (dissolution of Soviet Union happened in December 1991, which is the name of his BitChute channel).
If he is Slaviv then i expect him not to misspel Каховка as Хаковка.
However a Slav could very well be dizzy about English gimmik of K vs Kh…
Except that just few lines above he correctly wrote Kherson not Kerson. So, he knows the difference. Then why Khakovka?
The English-language and German-language observers regularly make small mystypings in ther alien for them Slavic words. Just like i often do misspellings with English word i don’t use daily (i used to make my American penmate laugh violently with “sqeed” typo, for example).
So at some moments i think i feel some subconsious, subliminal resonance with the author, and i think he sholuld be of our ilk.
Then at the next page he feels completely alien again and i think i just deluded myself.
> uses same word for naked person and land.
and there are several words, at that.
голая / нагая / обнажённая
nakED – is the latter, is soemthing that was MADE bare, something that somone did nake.
just saying says
Mistakes happen. I’ve heard Martyanov saying X-101, instead of Kh-101.