A current question is what will Russia do next in the Ukrainian conflict? Continue to go slow or speed up the action? The previous common question of what would the Ukrainian counteroffensive accomplish has come and gone. Now, perhaps, it is Russia’s turn to take the offensive. Some people feel strongly that Russia has made a mistake by not being more forceful and striking the Ukrainian army with full power and thus bringing a swift end to the conflict. The feeling by this viewpoint is that Russia has talked about red-lines and warned Ukraine not to attack locations inside historic Russia, but fails to react when Ukraine does it anyway. A recent example of this view is the following article:
Putin’s Butt-sitting Leading to More Escalation
Paul Craig Roberts, September 23, 2023
…
Russian media now turning on the butt-sitter, demanding an end to his encouragement of endless provocations by his inaction.
The editor-in-chief of the Russian state TV channel RT, Rossiya Segodnya news agency and Sputnik news agency, Margarita Simonyan, believes that after today’s attack in Sevastopol, Russia should stop turning a blind eye to the direct involvement of the West in the military conflict, limited to usual warnings and cautions.
“It is time to deliver an ultimatum in its harshest form not only to Kiev, but also to its patrons in NATO.” she said.
Western intelligence and French missiles involved in the attack.
Biden sending long range ATACMS missiles and M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Putin’s inability to act has opened up more of Russia for missile attack. Escalation is proceeding from Putin’s unwillingness to use sufficient force to end the conflict. Will Putin and Lavrov ever stop trying to fight a war with mere words?
Washington is creating new troubles for Russia in the former Central Asian provinces of the USSR. Putin’s inaction is producing a situation spiraling out of control….
[unz.com]
End Quote
The counter to this view is that Russia views the US as being very unstable and unable to plan rationally for and accept the decline of the American Empire. Therefore it is wise to allow time for the US to adjust and not to make sudden movements that could result in dangerous panic reactions. This is similar to the viewpoint of China with regard to US provocations, as noted in the following article:
Zelensky’s Top Aide Publicly Insulted China, Here’s Why Beijing’s Response Has Been So Restrained
Timofey Bordachev, September 25, 2023
….
So every word Beijing says to US satellites is ultimately part of its relationship with the US. That’s why China is being cautious. Everyone knows very well that the cautious reactions of not only major countries (such as China or India) but also of most members of the international community towards the antics of the Americans and their cronies is only due to Washington’s continuing power capabilities.
Americans have no other means of defending their interests in the world, and “soft power” or subtle political influence has long been forgotten. But the ability of the US to force others to play by its own rules is still enormous, and we should not forget that. Beijing is playing a complex game, the ultimate goal of which is to defeat the US without directly confronting it. And it will be as restrained as possible….
[RT.com]
End Quote
Russia is being cautious for the same reason that China is being cautious. While the lack of a spectacular Russian offense has led to accusations of Russian weakness, there is a useful aspect to going slow. It is less frightening to the Europeans and makes it more difficult for the US to keep those countries concentrating on an alledged Russian “threat” instead of concentrating on inflation, oil & gas, grain, diamonds, and refugees. Having the latter issues dominating the headlines tends to cause disagreements and controversy in the EU, thus weakening the entire structure.
Another angle to consider is that Russia is likely putting pressure on the US in areas besides Ukraine. The contest between the Great Powers is taking place all over the world. The following article provides some ideas in this regard:
NATO’s Losing Proxy War in Ukraine
Ron Unz, September 25, 2023
….
But even aside from the risk of a direct military clash, our leaders seem not to consider that Russia might take horizontal retaliatory steps in other theaters that could gravely endanger our own national security.
One such Russian counter-move may have already occurred. Last month, CSIS published a report by MIT Prof. Ted Postol, a top arms control expert, arguing that the sudden appearance of new, solid-fueled North Korean ICBMs was probably the result of a direct technology-transfer from Russia. He explained: “This missile is equipped to penetrate existing U.S. ballistic missile defenses with countermeasures and deliver multiple thermonuclear weapons to targets in the continental United States.” As a result, many tens of millions of American lives are now at the mercy of a young and sometimes erratic foreign dictator deeply hostile to us, thereby obviously giving North Korea much greater leverage in any future military confrontation involving South Korea or Japan….
[unz.com]
End Quote
Russia has other areas where it can put pressure on the US, for example in Syria and Iraq, where Russia can work in conjunction with China and Iran. Africa is another location where Russia is active and is reportedly fairly popular with the public—as witnessed during the recent turmoil in Niger. One would need a massive scoreboard to keep track of the status of wars, revolutions, coups, and other regime change efforts in all 200+ countries of the world. So simply looking at Ukraine does not present the big picture. Thus it is difficult for an outside observer who does not have access to such a scoreboard, to second-guess what the Russian government is doing. It is certainly possible to criticize the Russian officials and to have different opinions about Russian strategy, diplomacy, and military activities, however, it may take some time before it is crystal clear as to which viewpoint turned out to be most accurate.
Even in Ukraine it is hard to know exactly what the local scoreboard would show due to the selective reporting by all sides to the conflict. Especially since the Ukraine side is allegedly going for attacks with maximum pubic relations value in order to keep up support from the West, whereas Russia is less dependent on outside support and more concerned with destroying the Ukrainian army, and with public opinion in Russia.
Finally, it would appear that Russia has taken at least one glove off, so to speak:
More Lies And “Spin” In Western Media, While Russian Media Provides Some Worthwhile Coverage Of The Attack Last Night On Odessa
Gilbert Doctorow, September 25, 2023
….
Last night, early this morning there was another wave of dramatic Russian air attacks on Ukraine, in particular on the port city of Odessa. From some indications, depending on the actual use of the “hotel” hit by Russian missiles, this attack would appear to be the perfect tit-for-tat revenge for the loss of Russia’s Black Sea staff building in Sevastopol. Western reporting speaks of the hotel as “not in use for years” or as being used for military training purposes. Russian state television, Sixty Minutes, this evening says that the strike on the hotel resulted in the deaths of Ukrainian officers and foreign mercenaries who worked there. In the shadowy world of unofficial Russian internet sites, there is the view that the building was effectively used as a staff headquarters for what remains of the Ukrainian fleet. For what it is worth, The Financial Times identified the hotel as a “landmark…that had stood at the foot of Odessa’s famous Potemkin Stairs.” Surely that helps cinema fans locate the site.
Additionally, Russian missiles destroyed the maritime passenger terminal of Odessa. More importantly, the Russians destroyed silos and other port infrastructure essential to grain export. There were explosions and fires that lit up the sky for hours….
[gilbertdoctorow.com]
End Quote
In conclusion, it appears that Russia’s slow approach is having the effect of demilitarizing both Ukraine and NATO, as well as starting an effort to denazify both Ukraine and Canada. The slow approach is also causing cracks in the European Union over Ukrainian grain. In addition, Poland is supposedly thinking about asking for reparations from Germany for WWII damages—which is problematical, since Russia could use the same facts as a basis for requesting payment from Poland for Russia liberating Poland from Germany in WWII. Public opinion in Russia seems to be solidly behind Putin, and the various recent international meetings and summits indicate that the Global South is more sympathetic toward Russia than a year ago. Of course, the calculus may change in the future and Russia could strike hard in order to finally collapse some weakened institutions. It is a judgment call.
Russia and China follow Sun Tsu’s maxim, “When you are strong, look weak.”. The USA follows the rest of Sun Tsu’s maxim, “When you are weak, look strong.”.
You’re right about the big picture. Ukraine is a small facet of this global 4th Generation War. WW3 has been going on for some time and is a continuation of WW2. WW2 was the continuation of WW1.
Great post by the way.
I think you are giving our (US sphere) ruling elites far too much credit with that.
They are actually as delusional as they appear. They despise people in the “reality based community” who warn of limits to their power, they believe their own propaganda, and they’ve reversed the maxim “never underestimate an adversary” to the max.
Megalomaniacs live with blinders on and can only see their own goals, caring nothing about anything or anyone else. The single minded purpose often gets them great success, but always leads to failure in the end. The caution for the rest of us is that elites can be expected to do anything to try to keep it all going. Some, like Gates, are back-pedalling on some things, others are doubling down as the diverse actors comprising the lite start to formulate their own strategies as the collective one falls apart.
They overestimate their intelligence, power and control, we underestimate their maniacal nature, they are deranged psychopaths, and very dangerous, more so as their dreams of global domination evaporate.
I understand that the fellows over at The Duran believe that the Biden Administration is currently being run by Jake Sullivan, who is no geopolitical mastermind.
A nobody. A sheltered, pampered, blinkered dimwit.
And even discounting his singular lack of talent for the job that he has been given, there is the added burden that he is in competition for influence with the neocons like Cookies Nuland, who really is bat-shit crazy.
To be honest, the Russians would indeed be wise to move at a pace that doesn’t spook any – or all – of these competing power structures lest they react like the children that they are.
As the old saying goes: softly, softly, catchy monkey.
Yes, slow and steady wins the race.
It is not so much that they underestimate the enemy, but that they severely overestimate themselves. It is hubris in the extreme, and that will not end well.
Severely underestimating your enemy and severely overestimating your own abilities is a recipe for utter panic when/if events take an unexpected turn.
Such people will never scope up a Plan B because, well, why bother? Things will always work out according to their Very Cunning Plans because …. what? they did WHAT!!!!…. holy shit! How did that happen? What can we do? What can we DO!!!!
Risk management is for wimps.
Game theory is a waste of time.
Washington acts, and everyone is astonished.
That’s just the way it is, until …. it isn’t.
And that’s when the panic sets in.
“…severely underestimate themselves….”
Yes, the scoreboard is way bigger than Ukraine. It might be that US overestending itself – all by its self – is enough to take down the US. That would take time. Call it the Black Knight strategy.
Then again, just what happened to that F35? What about the massive failure of Volkswagon? Maybe Russia is saving fuel for itself, or maybe it’s just squeezing Europe? What about Syria and the other 800 bases? What about the FAA system repeatedly crashing?
The scoreboard is way bigger. Ultimately, it seems as if Russia (and China) need to demilitarize/denazify the entire world. But they have to do it without being hit by the debris.
The US is grossly overextended, so it’s starting to pick a fight with India. At home, it destroys the rule of law.
This is a coup.
Taking into account that Russia is up against a wounded and cornered animal (NATO and the US), I can’t recall anyone who has been able to perform such balancing act as Putin. They obviously can’t provoke him to react irrationally.
Russia should just keep going as they are and adjust as they go along, because their tactics works.
They have much less casualties than Ukraine/NATO by this tactics.
+ For each NATO weapons striking Russia it get more and more sympathy from all over the world.
+ For each passing day we get new exposure about the corruption in Ukraine and NATO.
Latest with the fact that the west is actually financing and supporting NAZIs to commit war crimes.
As a consequence, more and more westerners get to respect the Russians for each passing day, and this may finally break down the cold war demonization in the west toward Russia.
That would be a great start for real peace between East and west when the war ends.
Russia’s approach is demilitarizing of Ukraine and NATO, as well as de-nazi-fying both Ukraine and Canada, while many NATO Nations will begin to look behind closet doors to see if some NAZIs are hiding within their own ranks.
The slow approach is also causing cracks in the EU, which is a good thing, as each Nation will get back its sovereignty, and we will no longer see Sanctions and world wars driven by super National organizations.
“Poland is thinking about asking for reparations from Germany for WWII damages”.
However at the end of WWII every Allied Nation forfeited their claims of war reparations against Germany, exactly because the severe war reparations and loss of territory forced upon Germany for WWI was the major contributing factor for the start of WWII.
The Allied Nations decided that no claim would be made against Germany, unless all allied agreed to do so.
After WWII all European nations realized that you can’t bomb and plunder an empire into submission.
Germany, Japan, Russia and China have all risen from the ashes and become great Nation again.
The only Empire who hasn’t learned this lesson of history (yet) is the very young America.
Maybe they are about to.
“”The USA follows the rest of Sun Tsu’s maxim, “When you are weak, look strong.”.
and has done since at least 1620.
So I’m not the only one thinking the whole thing as the Slow Motion Operation (SMO). 🙂
At the beginning of the whole thing , influence over 404 was at stake. Now the game prize is influence over the whole Europe , Africa and the Middle-east.
That escalated quickly !
Unfortunately the aftermaths won’t be easy. Scale down a militarization is never an easy task, rebuilding a country neither and avoiding a new war even more !
The Tortoise and the Hare came to mind.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Tortoise_and_the_Hare
Also, armchair generals are prone to premature detonation, because of lack of experience.
your post showed your own ignorance and foolishness as a lazy person who never bother to research geopolitics outside mainstream media.
only fools and trolls would see RUS is too slow , because many things are not publicly known and thus judging RUS as slow exposed your own ignorance on matters at hand.
Who are you responding to?
Where did I said going slow was a bad thing ? Another commenter here was referring at “cheap war” tactics (despite RF doubling it’s military budget) and I tend to agree with the fact we are seeing a frugal form of warfare… I already argue than a static front had lots of benefits in warfare , even more when some can impair ennemy supply chain by attacks in the deep rear.
I’m not an armchair general : I manufacture weapons for a living … first thing I think about are supply chains.
Where did I said going slow was a bad thing ? Another commenter here was referring at “cheap war” tactics (despite RF doubling it’s military budget) and I tend to agree with the fact we are seeing a frugal form of warfare… I already argue than a static front had lots of benefits in warfare , even more when some can impair ennemy supply chain by attacks in the deep rear.
I’m not an armchair general : first thing I think about are human lives and supply chains.
Clearly the Chinese in particular think they are overtaking the US & will take the top spot without firing a shot, if nothing frightens the horses (and they’re probably correct in that).
Given the nature of the ruling elites in the US sphere, a firm but cautious approach, as with a rabid and unpredictably violent dog, seems sensible generally, and the Russians have been admirably level headed and confident in the face of US sphere provocations so far.
It’s clear that the neocon elites fantasize about “Pearl Harbor events”, from either Russia or China. They think they can “win” a resulting war, and their only concern is that they do not get the public blame for starting it, because they know it would be catastrophically costly.
They are very obviously deranged and dangerous. How on Earth did we let them get so much power over our nations?
“How on Earth did we let them get so much power over our nations?”
With bread and circuses.
“How on Earth did we let them get so much power over our nations?” Very good question. Let me answer:
First they took control of the banks and banking, in other words – MONEY, money printing and it’s supply.
By controlling money, they could control everything else – including politicians. WARS were very good for the great profits to be made. All wars in the last two centuries were bankers wars, including two world wars. Untold millions dead was also great outcome for this vermin! Reducing populations is ONE of their agendas.
Then they took control of the mass MEDIA and THEN, the final masterstroke – the EDUCATION. “Get them young and they are yours forever” – Goebbels.
Now they are taking over the social media – controlling information is the first priority for them now as the lying must continue. It is absolutely imperative that the Goyim is kept from finding out the truth. And kept distracted with bogey men.
That is how we have arrived to this moment in our existence on our beautiful planet.
If we, as human race, allow for this Global Parasite to exist and continue, we will lose our lives and our only home in this universe. Clear now?
+1
Claudius, in 50 A.D saw what you see.
The Universal Plague of Mankind must, and will be, defeated again
CRYSTAL.
The neocons are the most pushy people on the planet. While they are immoral in the extreme, they are very focused on their goals.
What passes for US ruling elite since the end of WW2 are soft and immoral people. Strong people like Admiral Forrestal were suicided and I guess lots of would-be leaders got the hint.
Forestall was one of ours, a Paddy. Give those Irish expats their due, they committed with undivided loyalty to their adoptive country, despite considerable discrimination in the early years.
I believe Russia is going slow for a couple of reasons: first, as you say, Larry, they are demilitarizing Ukraine, and there are now reports of mass surrenders of Ukrainian forces, a new development. Second, Russia has been ramping up their capabilities to increase supply of arms and munitions, and before launching any major effort would want to have enough in the bag to take on NATO should they intercede.
I also expect that, as Ukrainian surrenders increase, the pace of Russia’s actions may as well to capitalize on the demoralized Ukrainian forces desire to stay alive. At some point a major push will result in massive surrender of Ukrainians, well beyond the large groups that are giving up now. The reports are the prisoners are happy, getting food, shelter and medical attention, all lacking on the Ukraine side.
We hear more excuses from the west – the arms provided are old, the Ukrainians don’t know what they’re doing, etc., as they try to manage a retreat and save face (an unlikely prospect). I also think that when Russia feels it has all their ducks in a row, things like NATO/US recon planes and drones, and marshalling areas in NATO countries near Ukraine will become targets. It has also been reported that American sources admit NATO has resources to last 2 weeks against a full-on Russian engagement, and they’d lose, and that attempts to fly/boat replacement manpower to Europe would be disaster, as they’d be sitting ducks for Russian missiles.
So Russia can chew up more NATO assets and Ukrainian soldiers, and leave NATO in even worse straits should Russia decide to selectively blow up assets in NATO territory – don’t respond and look weak, respond and lose being the two choices.
Russia is playing the long game to survive, and that means carefully taking out NATO/US superiority for all to see. The longer NATO stay engaged here, the worse the outcome will be. Meanwhile, as is pointed out above, every one else with a bone to pick is getting restless and ready to attack. I suspect NATO and the US have a pretty big beatdown coming, and there will be piling on as everyone wants to get their licks in. Every bully finds out you can’t take on everybody if they decide to stand up to you. That’s where we’re at now. And then there’s the self-inflicted economic disaster in the US blowing up their ability to finance it all…..
Well, if President V V Putin is “The One,”
Then “The One” can retaliate w/o the explicit escalation. He can target the 404 embassies in the capitals of the escalatory weapons supplying countries! Once a missile penetrates the “air defences” of London, Paris, Berlin, DC, etc., the destruction doesn’t need to be horrific, just exemplary — to proof a concept mentioned by “The One’s” colleagues — nobody can hide from Russia’s retribution…
Cheers, JaKo
Look to oil as well for another area Russia is using to pressure the West. reducing output, causing price per barrel to rise, drives inflation.
I think the pace is just right. This is not about sock puppet Ukraine but about the hand within. Territorial gain in Ukraine, the Zelenskyy regime are actually of minor significance in the actual existential struggle between US Empire and the Russia/China BRICS+ led emerging multipolar world.
Paul Craig Roberts is brilliant in his own way but will get us all killed if his advice is heeded.
Amen. PCR, as much as he correctly criticizes American imperialism is afflicted by the American ideology that might makes right. Follow his political advise and by now we would all be dead, courtesy of a nuclear winter.
Paul Craig Roberts is a professional loudmouth. He doesn’t make a living by giving a sound advice, but by “saying bold things on the Internetz”.
Well, at least it seems Russia has, fortunately, refrained from bombing any Ukrainian Vodka distilleries.
LOL. NATO would bomb those first, and probably tobacco manufacturers too.
P.S. Wikipedia says that NATO bombed tobacco factory allegedly by request of Philip Morris International.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philip_Morris_Operations
One would think that the uncontrolled flow of illegal immigrants into the US is a high-priority national security issue. However, the majority of these people are young, male, and poor, which makes them an ideal pool for military recruitment in case of a national emergency (i.e., “the Army or deportation, your choice”). That, literally, is the only way other than the draft that Uncle Sam could enlist enough manpower to fight a major land war with Russia, China, or Iran. Maybe Biden is working on his own long-game regarding Ukraine.
uncontrolled flow of illegal immigrant ? stop swalloing right wing nonsense on this matters.. it is allowed to happen because these illegal immigrants are the core low paid work force of USA. it is necessary for US economy.
and US already have manpower to fight their wars with the influx of willing eastern european nations serving as US’s cannon fodder
Except that the cannon fodder from Eastern Europe are soldiers in the armies of their own nations. That makes it hard for the US to have them to fight anyone but Russia. Illegal immigrants, on the other hand, would be in U.S. uniform and go where they’re told.
That would turn into a total shit show. These do-called “military aged” men could never be forged into any kind of soldier. They have no language skills and are here for the welfare not to be target practice for Russian soldiers.
If you think the current generation of American kids are useless lumps these immigrants would make them look like Rambo.
The idea however to me is a good one. It would handily solve the immigration problem in very short order.
My comment wasn’t meant to sound like approval of the scheme. I’m a U.S. Army vet myself and consider the idea of replacing American troops with large numbers of illegal immigrants to be the end of the Republic. Nevertheless, if you put your Neocon a-hole hat on and read about the gang crackdown in El Salvador last year that put 66,000 tattooed thugs in jail, you might think that their incarceration would be better spent in a Ukrainian trench fighting Rooskies. If the idea occurred to me, it certainly occurred much earlier to our rulers in Washington. Letting large numbers of illegal immigrants into the country would operationalize the concept.
https://www.wsj.com/video/the-human-cost-of-el-salvador-massive-gang-crackdown/141B63DD-DDAF-4486-94A2-07EC90DD4050.html
During the Mexican-American War, the US Army took on fresh Irish immigrants for its southern adventure. To their credit, many of these Irish mutinied and were hanged in Mexico City. During and after the Civil War, immigrants joined the US Army. Poor pay, lousy conditions, nasty jobs, but it was better than the mostly Scandinavian sh*tholes they came from. When the army down-sized and moved much of its operations to hot climate, the more-recent Scandinavians did logging in the US. And again it was sh*thole conditions with poor pay, but now in the land of the free.
Done with PRC and his “Russia’s fault” due to this “inaction” campaign he’s been ranting on about for 18 months.
He’s a typical Western “voice” of “toughness & strength at the barrel of a bomb”.
All the evidence is that this “inaction” of Russia, the West is falling apart & screeching like the irrational bandits they are.
Outside of the “West”… the whole world is sick of them.
If it moves on to WW3.. it’s on the West.
They could take their NATO dogs and leave.
If not, then they want a war. It’s not rocket science.
Yes, the evidence of sea change in the Global South and Middle East and Asia is visible. It is not sprung from venality or retribution or anything so fragile. To the credit of the Russians and Chinese, their speech and actions so far are mostly on a higher plane and they are winning support.
Here is a point that may sound fanciful. OK, maybe it is. Mr. Putin would like to find genuine “partners” among the major Western leaders. Such partners would have to cast off the hypocrisy and frozen pattern of thought to be born again. They would embrace the goals that the Russians and Chinese announced; to improve both mutual security and mutual benefit among nations. A merely parallel project with continued hypocrisy and treachery would not be good form. Even a single rebirth would be a milestone, and then more would follow.
As I expect to see it:
Ukry’s are loose fringe threads of natonazi cloth.
Start pulling threads of POW Intel and MI6’s nazi handlers come to light.
Keep pulling MI6 and Bund intels then nazi yarn balls wrapped around 9/11/1947 are going to be dug out of Langley … tied to everything in WashDC.
Larry, my note concerns your previous entry about the incident with a former soldier of the 14th SS Gernadier Division Galizien. The Polish government wants his extradition but does not know the history. Read about Gen. Pavlo Shanduk, the last commander, and his meeting with the commander of the Polish armed forces in the West, Gen. Wladyslaw Anders in 1945. It was the Polish hero who gave the soldiers a free ticket to the West. The Polish government does not know what it is saying or what it wants. Amnesty is amnesty. The history is very complicated. I am Polish and have nothing to do with Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavlo_Shandruk
My comment wasn’t meant to sound like approval of the scheme. I’m a U.S. Army vet myself and consider the idea of replacing American troops with large numbers of illegal immigrants to be the end of the Republic. Nevertheless, if you put your Neocon a-hole hat on and read about the gang crackdown in El Salvador last year that put 66,000 tattooed thugs in jail, you might think that their incarceration would be better spent in a Ukrainian trench fighting Rooskies. If the idea occurred to me, it certainly occurred much earlier to our rulers in Washington. Letting large numbers of illegal immigrants into the country would operationalize the concept.
It was the beginning of the end of the Roman empire, the “Pax Romana”, after the roman army Marian reforms and being difficult to get conscripts fighting the savage wars against the Iberian Peninsula tribes, incorporating the local populations (read mercs) and giving roman citizenship as a pay for the service.
Yeah, the “free” Polish Army in the West, and also those Galician Waffen-SS volunteers never returned to Red country, on the risk to get a bullet on the back of the head.
But so what? Those Galician fascists where the ones who eagerly cleaned Volyn, Lviv and east of Krakow from Polish civilians. It is amusing when the folks like Lubomyr Luciuk and others speakers from the OUN-UPA diaspora say they are not anti-semitic; to them they where not killing jews, they where all Polish.
*** “A current question is what will Russia do next in the Ukrainian conflict? Continue to go slow or speed up the action?” ***
Why not both? The conclusion here is a very good one. Everything I hear about the Special Military Operation suggests everything is going well for Russia at the present time. Ukraine is destroying donated weapons as quickly as they can be supplied. Its mindless military strategies are decimating its armed forces. NATO and associated fellow-travellers are losing heart. Russian manufacturing contines to increase, and the increasing numbers of Russian reserves are finishing their training.
Alexander Mercouris recently suggested that Russia’s witholding diesel fuel from world markets could be explained by the need to build a reserve for a huge mechanized assault force.
So far as this Amateur Armchair Strategist can figure out, the signs all point towards an eventual massive all-fronts assault on the weakened Ukrainian armed forces. I believe Russia will take the parts of Ukraine it needs to create a buffer against future military attacks, then rightfully declare victory. In the meantime, I expect the grinding-away attrition of Ukraine’s military to continue.
“I think, therefore I am” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cogito,_ergo_sum
– Those who guard their lips preserve their lives, but those who speak rashly will come to ruin. https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs%2013:3&version=NIV
– Even fools are thought wise if they keep silent, and discerning if they hold their tongues. https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Proverbs%2017:28&version=NIV
– The one whose walk is blameless, who does what is righteous, who speaks the truth from their heart; whose tongue utters no slander, who does no wrong to a neighbor, and casts no slur on others; https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Salm+15%3A2-3&version=NIV
Larry,
Your citations of PCR, RT and all are much appreciated . . . and I must come down on the side of President Putin, Seccy Lavrov, and General Staff Chief Gerasimov, as well as a body of advisors who are not high-profile public figures: They are clearly thinking things through. The last thing that a nation needs is for “Journalistas” to tell the government what to do.
Col. Macgregor has pointed out numerous times that when the top brass says, “we must advance to such-and-such,” the correct next question is, “what do you expect to gain thereby, and what do you hope to do next?” He argues for defining the DESIRED result, as opposed to just any old result, an approach that seems to plague our Pentagonians, NATOnians, and Kyiv Kreatures. The upshot of having no really strategic vision or strategic plan is something like a goat roping.
While Washington, D.C. consoled itself with America’s and the West’s manifest superiority in so many ways, Russia quietly . . . improved in so many ways. The Lancet-3 got developed to Lancet-53 (may I surmise those are revision numbers?), and now the damned things are terrifyingly lethal. So what else is up the Russian Bear’s fur coatsleeve?
I agree with Mark Marksson’s comment above that the West is delusional, mighty bad feeling, since they are purportedly “defending” me and mine.
Another topic: Over buffet lunch following worship on Sunday, one of the Brothers really showed how deeply he had embibed Kyiv’s and the WaPo’s KoolAid: Putin is Satan, and that absolves anything that Kyiv might have done or ever do. And this is a successful entrepreneur, a successful father of a great family, strong Christian, and not incidentally a “conservative,” who, alas, could not see thatwhat he had ought to be “conserving” should not be a regime riddled with Nazis.
Thanks, Larry–great comments, too
Please note. I’d love to take credit for Observer R’s prose, but I did not write this. Observer R did. I’m glad you enjoyed it.
Russia will have to change in order to come out of this conflict with globo-homo-schlomo as a Nation with a vision and future.
First, it is deeply infected by envy of things western, the desire/illusion for a higher standard of existence.
She has lost her confidence
Her “elites” are indeed a calcified maffia-like net of (((oligarchs))) and ex-sovjet chinovniks
Her IT infrastructure, hardware, software, local talent blows(thank fucking god for Telegram, it`s a godsend – registered as a London LLC🙄)
The demographic landscape is a catastrophe. Immigration and the related crime is getting to the limit of acceptance
Bureaucracy is out of this world absolutely gonzo unreal
The justice system is a remote-controlled, arbitrary chunk of antagonism
Her financial/fiscal institutions are built and manned by her staunchest enemies
Her Army was/is(?) a case study in corruption and graft
Her only patriots are presently fighting and killing each other on both sides of the frontline
All her neighbors hate her, have territorial designs on her. And not only them.
She lacks any concept of her future aside from not wanting to stick out too much
In a nutshell: normal for Russians.
Nothing a good war can`t fix. But not this crowd-funded Special Needs Operation. And vet those, that will want to return. HARD!
Unless Putin gets mort in the near future.
The Country will disintegrate in a second.
Nobody trusts any of the other useless motherfvkers – at all.
This war better present Russia with a clear replacement to VVP, or she is in trouble.
The west is in real freefall now, if Putin lives and holds on to his faculties, the war can can go on indefinitely.
I am thinking the coalition against her will blow apart within a year and hoping for the US to get paralyzed soon – if nothing else – by the next election.
What can go wrong? 😎
I also think that Russia has a lot of problems to solve. But your Russia would not win a war against Armenia. And what I see is NATO being beaten in Ukraine. Everyday!
Yeah.
Hey, what I paint is a realistic picture – lovingly rosy. Upon which the decision to push Russia over was made. The cunning of reason some may say.
But that picture is not complete – and that`s where (((they))) have fucked up. That, and their urgent, constant greed, their own construct coming apart around them.
There is a lot on the godly side of the ledger as well.
I am out of flowers presently – I only carry a whip.
Her Achilles’ heel is demographix. And immigration of alien souls and bodies. Both those can be addressed. Incorporating the kraina will help – and the resulting immigration of her own children. The greatest present for her was the flight of her enemies out of Russia proper.
After she shakes lose the dogs of war.
That and the issue of the Head of State. VVP won`t live forever.
nice to see a gaggle of random take from AI generated mumbo jumbo designed to create silly and ignorant anti russia post..
i guess the troll farm now use AI to generate their posts
It is not an anti-Russia post. You should be able to discern that. I ain`t selling you shit.
@TC
Please don’t mind Buntalanlucu. He’s grumpy most of the time. Some people have issues, he has the full subscription.
“Public opinion in Russia seems to be solidly behind Putin…”
Understatement of the year!
I study Russian culture with particular attention to popular music, which I believe is a leading indicator of social change. During the Soviet era, from the 60’s onward, foreign popular music was the thing, starting with The Beatles, Elvis and the Rolling Stones. For example, a friend of mine from Yekaterinburg was the go-to guy for western music in his high school in the 70’s. His uncle, a diplomat who travelled frequently to West Germany, would bring him albums from artists such as Pink Floyd, Jimi Hendrix and Led Leppelin which he would record to cassette and sell to his classmates. That was the Samizdat you never heard about, the term usually referring to books that were banned or unavailable.
The trend continued into the 90’s and early 2000’s with Russian artists producing material patterned after western music and often sung in English, the idea being that you needed English to reach western audiences, since Russia was still too poor and too small to support a domestically oriented market.
That began to change circa 2010 when Russian bands starting producing material in Russian with Russian themes, which I took as a sign of improving economic conditions instilling a sense of national identity and pride in their culture. There has always been a Russian popular music culture of course, but I’m not talking about mainstream artists here, this is the underground youth culture – what we referred to as the ‘counterculture’ in the West, but with a major difference. Whereas ours took the form of protest, Russian youth culture today is very supportive of the nation – they just find more exotic ways of expressing that, in keeping with Russian’s profound capacity for irony and self-parody.
I could go on, but it’s probably more informative to present some examples. These cut across all genres, including well known and obscure artists. Be sure to click on subtitles if you don’t speak Russian. Enjoy!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNpLuXOg7xQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HtvH34CmZY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5U4xmueqS4Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVlfWbDyhm8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bb3PYFr5y98
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzyahHv1j6A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIjKijhv1OU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFa1u0Gye4w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-x76HiYOCM
This is just a small sample of the direction popular music is taking in Russia. The Pussy Riot days are over and a new patriotic consciousness is emerging in the Russian music scene. This is not only happening in Russia but in the former republics as well, which I document here: https://ebear.substack.com/
Danke. That was some really good pop music from the Russkies.
If anyone is interested, here is some selected SMO related music. I recommend searching for lyrics, and putting them trough some online translator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5EALtuCavQI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-klGZ2-Jck
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OJJ78MbOLQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtp-_mf2NKE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7idrbUy3HnY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YntuQEv5mCk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsZJ5lQwBO4
Let’s not forget:
SHAMAN – ГИМН РОССИИ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79ODF4QJeWc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4OofdpziDYY
and
SHAMAN – Я РУССКИЙ / YA RUSSKIY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrEt9RTVOKs
Look at the crowds, both young and older concert attendees.
So, what is comparable in OTANistan?
This? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ5khClAFIo
Maybe this? https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-worst-performance-of-the-US-National-Anthem-you-have-ever-seen-or-heard
“So, what is comparable in OTANistan? ”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uPoDNEn3I0
@Ebear
thank you friend, songs you recommended are much appreciated.
Russia is demilitarizing NATO and the US. Or rather, they are demilitarizing themselves against the Russian defense, as well as destroying their own economies with the sanctions and inflation. Not sure it is Russian originally, but ~”Never interrupt your enemy when they are defeating themselves”. Never forget the 3-1 advantage of defense over offense. The US CAN’T make anywhere enough artillery shells or missiles to confront Russia. The tanks, ships, armored personal carriers, manned aircraft are ALL obsolete. Artillery, Missiles and drones rule.
When the Russians do move next, it will against Odessa, the last major ethnic Russian area. As you have said many times, the US/NATO cannot be trusted to abide by any agreement. While it won’t be an unconditional surrender, it will be according to Russia’s original demands what they already have, plus the rest of the Donbass, plus Odessa.
I agree that the war in Ukraine represents no more than 1% of the global conflict that we often do not realize. A conflict for an NWO that the Ukrainian war accelerated more than a decade and which aims to put an end to the unipolar world and the ability of the US to impose its will throughout the world. And the results are already visible. The US is losing influence in the world every day! Proof: 19 months ago, the US never would sign the final declaration of the last G-20 Summit that did not condemn Russia!
And because I don’t agree with Simonyan. Because Russia will never destroy Ukraine like the US destroyed Iraq – far from home – for several reasons. 1) Because your allies wouldn’t like it. 2) Because Russia doesn’t want a pile of rubble on its border and its consequences. 3) And because Russia rightly believes that the majority of Ukraine does not hate Russia! And although today, at war, spirits may be more heated, just remember how Europe quickly made peace with Germany after Hitler! Because, as a rule, wars are always more issues of regimes than of nations! Unfortunately, Europe after WWII even made peace more quickly with those who destroyed Europe than with those who saved Europe from Nazism – Russia! Due to the obvious influence of the great patrons of this war in Ukraine again – the US and UK!
Russia entered Ukraine after triggering art. 51 of the UN Charter to prevent an imminent attack on Donbass and will not abandon the path of peace in Donbass and Ukraine’s neutrality. And it intends to achieve a new European security architecture that addresses Moscow’s security concerns through economic means with major arms suppliers to Ukraine in Europe.
Russia is committed to the implosion of NATO and the EU in Europe through the economies! And once again, peace after wars, with other Governments, tends to be much quicker than many think. Seymour Hersh himself wrote again this week that the big reason why the US destroyed the Nord Stream was because Germany was hesitating in cutting ties with Russia because of energy, with winter coming. What I don’t believe. Not that I don’t think that Germany won’t quickly restore relations with Russia because it will. But because the US wanted to destroy Nord Stream 2 a long time ago and we all knew that in Europe.
And I completely disagree, for example, with Andrei Martyanov, who must be hurt by the war, when he says that Russia will no longer have relations with Europe and will completely focus solely on Asia. One of the reasons why Russia doesn’t take the gloves off as they say, is becasue Russia and China are not willing to give up the European common market. China is not even willing to abandon the large US market! Very important. And to this extent, it is much more a war against the Biden Administration and, if we want, the neocons than a war against the US! There are even several candidates like Kennedy and Trump who say every day they want to live in peace with Russia and China.
And where we can see that neither Russia nor China intend to cut ties with the West is in a series of public infrastructures related to the West that have not been abandoned but are on standby. Like China’s BIR and several connections in Eurasia also with Russian capital! What Russia is working on is becoming less dependent on Europe. With infrastructures like the North South corridor that connects Russia to India and Iran. Which were also started before the war! And which the US has already tried to destroy with yet another war on Karabachk.
Public infrastructure that Russia and China continue to see as a very important factor of production and that the US has completely neglected in recent years. And it was also what allowed the US to be the greatest economic power in the world in the 20th century. And I could give several examples that have since been privatized or abandoned. Because purely service economies need another type of infrastructure. Almost always private.
PCR does not look to me as such a “toughness & strength at the barrel of a bomb”man. His point of view emanates from his past experience within the US government: he sees American politicians as mad animals that are excited at the mere supposition that their enemy is scared. He thinks that they will do suicidal – and extremely dangerous – moves in this case. In essence, whether he is right or not about the inherent dangerosity of the slow Russian strategy is a judgment call. I tend to think that there must be reasonable, rational influential actors within the US army, otherwise, a catastrophe would have already happened. That said, heavy confrontations between “reasonable” and “rabid” actors in the US are probably happening right now, and no one can predict who will win… I would rather be on the safe side and suppose that the maniacs will win.
It’s sort of an oxymoron way of thing PCR has… he believes we have “mad hatters”… yet Russia should make “them afraid” and “show power” that will..?? Make them “rational”?
If there are “rational” military ect. It’s certainly easier for them to stay that course, this course, than another.
The real point of PCR & all Westerners like him is that none of this is Russia’s responsibility. They decided after years of being told to not park NATO on Russia’s porch, to test it out.
It’s not up to Russia to do a dang thing other than what they want.
If the US wants to “escalate”it’s on them. Every day, every life, every consequence, is on the US.
If US wants out , they can leave. If they’re not “scared”, that’s on them.
It’s simply enough of this mindset of the West that someone else has to come along and fix a mess they got themselves into, because they’re excused as mad-hatters.
This is one War… the Russians will not let them cut & run from, with no accountability to the World for.
Really good insights, Larry.
Just my 10 cents, but western observers need to try and stop evaluating Russian intentions through western lenses.
So many people in the West have no understanding of war and appear to see it as entertainment. It’s like they’re spectators at a digital Colosseum, in this case demanding a Hollywood movie with vast Russian armies storming forward.
Ain’t going to happen. The Russians DO understand the reality of war and take it extremely seriously.
Also, it’s arguably not correct to say that Russia isn’t doing anything on the offence in Ukraine. The reality is that Russia IS doing a lot of offensive work in Ukraine. Some of their recent missile attacks have been massive, all over Ukraine. The Russian slaughter of Ukraine’s forces on the front lines has been tragic, but extremely effective.
I agree that right now, Moscow can sit back, preserve their men, build up capacity for future action & do what they said they wanted to do from the start – annihilate Ukraine’s military. NATO’s incompetence and Kiev’s insanity make it easy for the Russians to achieve this.
Outside Ukraine, Putin & Co have hit so may geopolitical bulls-eyes that I’ve lost count : Russia is incredibly stronger now than it was in Feb 22, on any measure. And as each day passes, the West gets weaker.
Will there be a major Russian offensive? I think yes, because they also want to denazify Ukraine which will require political control of Ukraine, or large parts of it. Right now, the Russians can wait – Kiev may implode on its own – but if they need to move forward, the Russians will.
One thing that many are overlooking is the possibility of a massive Russian offensive in winter. The Russians have been training for combat in extreme cold for a number of years and seem to have developed specialised capabilities to do so – see. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/russian-arctic-training-1.5563691
In Dec 2021, the Russians held their largest ever winter military training exercise, which experts notes was unusually large and intense – see https://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/analyses/2021-12-08/unprecedentedly-intense-beginning-to-russian-armed-forces-winter.
Many have since understood the massive 2021 exercise as a precursor for the eventual Ukraine invasion a few months later, but that interpretation isn’t consistent with the very limited Russian incursion into Ukraine in Feb 22. It may in fact have been prep for a major winter offensive, when required.
Let’s see what happens but a major Russian winter offensive would seem to be the last thing Kiev or NATO expect.
Overall, Russia’s strategy seems to be spot on at the moment. Of course it isn’t without risk, but I am confident that the Stavka has gamed out all possible scenarios and is prepared on all fronts.
The West by contrast doesn’t seem to even have a plan. They lost this way back in October 2022, when it was clear that their insane gamble on Ukraine’s military and sanctions had failed big time. It’s a debacle, the worst western defeat of all time and definitely since WW2.
We in the West haven’t even started to understand the implications of the disaster these imbeciles in DC, London, Berlin etc have created. We need to hold each one of these scumbags accountable for what they have done, and to punish them severely, while also being prepared for some hard times.
“One thing that many are overlooking is the possibility of a massive Russian offensive in winter.”
Won’t happen. Not possible. Everybody thought there would be a Russian offensive last winter and there wasn’t. Ukraine is too far south. As are the battlelines. Ukraine doesn’t get Russian winters. Russia does.
You have to remember that the United States always goes through the same thing and that this was the “national conversation” before the commencement of both Gulf Wars. One just does not simply press a button and invade a country:
Sizing Up an Invasion of Iraq – Brookings Institute, Dec. 18, 2002
“The leaked plan appears to be a compromise between the “light” option favored by some civilians in the Department of Defense, and the “heavy” option favored by the uniformed services themselves. ”
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/sizing-up-an-invasion-of-iraq/
The Gulf War 1990-1991 (Operation Desert Shield/ Desert Storm)
“The war consisted of two phases the first was codenamed Operation Desert Shield (2 August 1990 – 17 January 1991) for operations leading to the buildup of troops and defense of Saudi Arabia. And the second was Operation Desert Storm (17 January 1991 – 28 February 1991) was the combat phase. ”
https://www.history.navy.mil/our-collections/art/exhibits/conflicts-and-operations/the-gulf-war-1990-1991–operation-desert-shield–desert-storm-.html
In the second example it was 6 months of military buildup followed by 100 hours of ground combat with 147 US casualties suffered through enemy action.
And that was for the invasion of Iraq. So, given that Putin & Russia are up against the entire West/NATO, they are no doubt going with the “heavy option” as there can be no room for mistakes.
Also, keep in mind that Stalin wanted a Second Front in Europe in 1942 and it was only until the middle of 1944 that it happened. And Stalin pointed out the same things, look at how small France is compared to the United States, look at how small Germany’s industrial base is compared to the United States. Stalin was extremely vexed that he had to hold the Wehrmacht at bay while the US and UK dawdled getting a second front started.
Russia today is pursuing the same “heavy option” strategy the Allies used in both Iraq and the Second World War. Putin knows he can’t afford a Dieppe or Gallipoli.
This article is contrived and self-fulfilling. At it’s core, it’s based on the presumption that it can out-psychologize the masters in controlling psychological perception, i.e. the western woke left. It absolutely ignores the last 60 years of history, in which the wokists successfully took over every facet of western societies, while the citizens of those countries, including all the readers of this blog, stood naively by and did nothing useful to stop them. But now such readers have the unmitigated gall to proclaim they know exactly not only what those same wokists will do in the Ukraine conflict, but more importantly how wokist control will somehow magically decline, as long as nobody provokes them. This is sheer effrontery, if not downright stupidity on the part of whoever agrees with this article.
Here’s the bottom line…
you do not understand the tactics, motivations, or ideology of wokism, because you are intellectually lazy and filled with smug arrogance, which is what allowed the wokists to take over your own societies while you stood by and did nothing except whine and complain (oh excuse me, you also voted and pretended that made a difference). You do not understand that the woke left secular religion, NOT fascism, NOT greed, controls your societies from top to bottom; therefore you are not qualified to make viable conclusions about how wokists will or will not react to a show of overwhelming force. So far, for the last 60 years, you are demonstrably wrong about all such conclusions, and yet you still can’t admit you’ve been wrong so that you will consider viable alternatives. If Russia is indeed thinking this way (a gross assumption on your part), then they are also wrong, and will ultimately pay the price for it.
“My enemies are evil, but my allies are stupid.”
Sure Eric. Everyone else is stupid, but for you, The Only One Who Understands.
Uh-huh.
How do you know what country the author, “ObserverR” lives in? With your vast psychic powers, you have read his innermost thoughts?
OK then.
“L’ Osservatore Romano” è l?Organo Ufficiale di stampa del VATICANO !
I am usually a little more reserved when posting here but today, additional gusto seems appropriate. PCR and Mr. Bordachev are space cadets. They don’t know anything …………… about anything. Russia and China are making their own moves based upon what is good for them, not on what a western commentator, who is not paying one iota of real attention to the the facts on the ground, is highlighting.
A simple example is the revelation that China has installed indigenously produced new generation cell phone chips, equal to anything the West can produce, in its´new products. Plus, they did it without any fanfare. This was a devastating blow against the accepted illusion of western chip supremacy and the US attempt to stymie Chinese development. Further it bodes ill for the prospects of future microchips from the Occidentals. And Mr. Bordachev? Oh yeah, he is bloviating about freedom of action by the US, without a remote chance of incurring consequences. He is out of his mind.
PCR? Yes, he has his eyes on the mountain, frequently referred to his local anthill, which was the attack on a decommissioned naval building, while Russia when it retaliates frequently blows people out of the boots. The illustrative point would be what happened within a week or so with the latest missile strikes. So, who brought the real pain?
It is good that you highlighted to oblivious ramblings of PCR and Bordachev. They are jackasses.
Regards.
The new 7nm Kirin chips Huawei is installing in its new phones are still a generation behind the West. However that gap is shrinking rapidly. Give it a couple more years before they surpass the west in this field. US chip companies just gave away their market share in China and billions in revenue following this misguided policy of containment and kneecapping competition.
If you put a bunch of phones side by side, with chipsets ranging from the newest 3nm (only used in the latest iPhone) to 7nm to 12 nm…..you won’t notice any difference really. A few more cameras you won’t ever use, a few more Megapixels that you won’t use (becasue the resulting photo files are getting too big in size for storage) slightly faster processing in some apps…so what.
The new Huawei phone connects to satellites, what “West” phone does that?
Critics say the new iPhone is not real 5G (I dunno, I have Android).
In the real world, is there any difference?
Probably the best possible way to cut down a gigantic tree without causing a tsunami effect on others, is to first trim the branches.
Russia is focused on Russia, but we have the demonic left with all its woke poison including drag church and AI Jesus, and we don’t appear to be growing in God’s grace. Is focus a reason Russia is discussed in the Bible regarding the end times, albeit negatively, and the United States has no mention at all. Obama knows about this. On the campaign trail he turned Paul’s awesome statement of “faith, hope and love” into “faith, hope and change.”
*** “This article is contrived and self-fulfilling.” ***
I understand that part of your post – you don’t like the article. (Since I saw it as an invitation for readers to speculate about the current situation involving Russia, NATO, and Ukraine, maybe you don’t like it that Mr. Johnson asks questions.) But the rest is quite over my head.
Could you kindly define what you mean by the word “woke” and its variations as you use them in your comment?
Larry, you are spot on in your assessment. Yes, the reactions to another attack on Russian territory and calls for swift retaliation are understandable, but in reality, Russia has amply retaliated for EVERY transgression. There are also LOTS of things that are happening behind the scenes that most of us do not know about. For instance there are no longer little UK and their naval or air presence in the Black Sea – they must have got a very clear warning. The only presence is their MI6 goons whose “speciality” is in planning terrorist attacks on civilian targets. They excel at that. USA, as usual, covering themselves with a fig leaf of NATO, is the main culprit – in providing intelligence and coordination for missile strikes. Providing ukie nazis with longer range missiles is another escalation which will have more than adequate Russian response. To Paul Craig Roberts great disappointment Russian President is not going to take his advice and will continue with his and his staff own strategic plan. And as big picture is showing us, everything is going exactly according to the plan. For Russia the main target is not Ukraine, it is NATO and it’s owners – the Global Parasitic Cabal as represented and personified by USA which had been taken over by this Cabal long ago. But this time they had badly miscalculated..
As one very wise man said – WHY disturb your enemy when it is self- destructing.
The only thing that concerns me is the egomaniacal idiots in Washington and London trying something directly, with Russia, in Ukraine. Not a good outcome for all involved.
The likelihood increases the closer that they get to being defeated and humiliated, by Putin.
The Russians made their objectives clear from the start: demilitarize and denazify. They take a step back, encouraging the Ukrainians to advance into heavily defended areas, then destroy them. Rinse and repeat until Ukraine runs out of men and machinery.
It’s classic ‘rope a dope’.
“That all you got George?”
Estimado Señor Larry.
A slowness more typical of training and greasing his army. Discarding the useless and above all developing new doctrines of modern warfare. The European war will come after Russia ruins the EU and causes social conflicts.
True. Warfare is evolving right in front of our eyes, and that requires some time. Similar thing happened in WWI, when machine guns made cavalry and infantry charges obsolete. It took a while to develop a tank and an assault infantry.
Two years ago, whole of the Western world was worshipping Bayraktars, and Javelins, and Leopards, etc. It turned out that they are junk, and that the most horrific weapon is a cheap kamikaze drone. All the armies need to reform, and military industry too.
My money is that Putin & Xi know and are doing what is in the best interests of their countries. And not the armchair generals offering their sage advice who think they know better🤔
would be educating to know the casualties among NATO serving or veteran (KIA/WIA) from their special forces / support troops killed in ukraine.
maybe the bases at Hereford and Poole will be quieter and their reunion (of SAS/SBS vets) also diminised in numbers
All those hulla ballo news glorifying Western MERCS , they are just smoke screen so the real meat (NATO Spec ops / veterans / sheep dipped) will able to move in UKR without too much publicity
look at POLISH merc units ,they moved as one unit .. as if they are ‘exported’ to UKR from the barracks in poland intact
@buntalanlucu
All those hulla ballo news glorifying Western MERCS , they are just smoke screen so the “real meat” (NATO Spec ops / veterans / sheep dipped) will able to move in UKR without too much publicity
@ “real meat”
the green berets had to be rescued in the north east Indian region. Or maybe it was next door in Burma. Navy seals need to stop for bottled water often on a mountainous exercise. This was in HAWS, High Altitude Warfare School, in Kashmir,India. They travel with a plane load of bottled water. Plus their reliance on air support/dominance. That won’t be possible in a fight with a peer/superior adversary. This was stated by an ex Delta Force assaulter.
https://www.amazon.com/Full-Spectrum-Disorder-Military-American/dp/1932360123?ref_=ast_author_dp
Your ego is writing cheques that your body can’t cash.
I tend to generally side with PCR on most things but in this case I think Russia is doing it Russias way and the right way to best achieve their goals in the long term.
I would like just a little more “Russian Aggression” maybe mixed with some of that famous Russian humor like maybe putting out videos of an Abrams tank drinking game.
Seriously though I wish Russia would stand up stronger for Syria specifically regarding the illegal occupation by US forces. Washington needa to be shown that they have overstayed their “welcome”. I think they can be run out of there without bloodshed and let the world and the American public know that the Russians have no desire to kill them, just boot their asses out leaving their weapons behind. Give them a Dunkirk moment that would send a stronger message than a massacre.
Shoigu said the SMO can last until 2025…
UKR already scrappign the manpower barrel in 2023 , have no intact weapon production , have to means to generate income , totally dependant on western money for military and civil services to run.
WHY RUS PROLONG THIS ?
because UKR will drain US/NATO countries’s arsenal and put their economy in trouble (already in trouble now but it will get worse and worse)
and the longer US/NATO stuck into UKR , the more time CHINA have preparing themselves for the economic shock when US imploded and will be far more prepared militarity to counter US proxy attacks on CHN.
ANYONE WHO KEEP ‘QUESTIONING’ RUS SPEED/INACTION IS A TROLL
there’s so many example of this kind of ‘trolling’ , they pretend to care about human lives , they pretend to care about russia , but then they viciously posted ‘putin is slow’ ‘putin should invate in 2014’ ‘putin this putin that’ ..
Fortunately majority of poster here are not some dumb useful idiot drunk of MSM koolaid
We’re not trolls we are Americans – Shock n’ Awe baby. 250,000 collateral damage is how we thought wars are fought. This is new.
Phrase: “You asked for miracles dear, I give you the FBI” (parody meme lol)
In scene Die Hard (1988) The Vault https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLMRh62sazs&t=1m25s
One dollar bet payment scene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjkdynBFHuQ&t=22s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tmI867fAYU&t=3m9s
Keep in mind that Russians don’t announce their plans in advance. Shoigu saying that SMO can last until 2025 could be just misinformation for the enemy.
A bit of good news here.
“Ukrainian troops are surrendering in droves, Russian TASS news agency claims, to the extent that Moscow has set up a special radio frequency so Ukrainian soldiers wishing to survive the Meat Grinder can do so safely.
Approximately 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have surrendered to the Russians using the special 149.200 “Volga” radio frequency, which has been operating since mid-summer, TASS reported.”
https://tass.com/politics/1681055“
Damn. Huge if true. Russia will have more Ukrainian soldiers than AFU at that rate.
Now Keeeev, is asking Poland and Germany to round up Ukie refugees and ship them home for military service.
I’m sure that scheme will work as well as we’d all expect
The number looks inflated, but Volga definitely saved lives of many.
https://odysee.com/@Velyaminov:a/Frequency-149.200-call-sign-Volga:2
Hard to argue not to continue a strategy that is working. Continue slow go, with increasing lateral pressure. With 800 to a thousand US bases around the world, it is a target rich environment.
A cold winter will do wonders for the Russian position, and as things unwind, the traitorous betrayal of Germany by Sholtz will come out as the rats jump ship – lucky the EU doesn’t have the death policy, unclear whether NATO (and US position in Europe) will survive that upheaval. I recall the photo of Vladimir Putin eating popcorn that zerohedge likes to show.
“With 800 to a thousand US bases around the world, it is a target rich environment.”
That. With all the plausible deniability you can eat…
I used to think like Mr. Roberts but Russian General staff proven smarter killing at 20:1 demilitaring Ukraine and NATO, and is getting whole world on it’s side. Who knows with all the pain EU is experiencing maybe they will elect pro or at least neutral on Russia leaders. War is already won – just a matter of the calculus of geo-politics and deaths of russians wish to incur going on offensive. It will certainly grow coming out from behind concrete and steel defensive positions.
The USA X-factor is a huge consideration not because US can beat Russia on battlefield but in fit of rage would use nukes and that ends world as we know it. Must keep them out at all costs. Maybe Putin hope US/EU will get board or sick and tired of it all. There are signs of that. Again the slow roll seems like the right call. TBD.
Hi Y’all
Don’t get lost in the woods. If it’s working, why change your MO?
If we weren’t paying their way, 404 would shut down tomorrow. So that’s not the issue RF military can roll all the way to 404’s western borders without too much trouble, though RF casualties would increase significantly if this were done today.
New goal-line for RF- dissolution of NATO. If you listen closely to Orban, Duda, Pavel; you know that NATO collapse is not far away. If we keep doing “The Stupid”, RF will soon be rolling into Paris. I’m gonna LMAO when the Baltic bozos beg RF for reincorporation into the Russian state.
Or how about a new Austria-Hungary? Orban will be PM of the whole.
Maybe a Greater Poland? ( OK, not likely)
1 thing 4 sure. All the trannies and pervs will be shipped to Berlin and Amsterdam where they can dine on toasted roaches.
Where will that leave the 5-I’s: looking up each other’s butt-holes. We in America should drop the 4 dominions of the Chuckster, as well MF Macron land, and go our own way. There’s work enough for us here at home.
@OldFart
“Where will that leave the 5-I’s: looking up each other’s butt-holes. ”
Let’s wait for them to pull their heads out of their own arses first. I found the usage of the 5 eyes term very strange. Maybe there’s an occult reasoning behind it.
Then there’s the problem of depth perception in one eyed people. The brain does compensatebut still… I have seen one eyed pilots doing crop dusting at night, multiple landings and take offs, using only moonlight. I doubt this gaggle of clowns can do it though.
Slovakia is turning against the war. Poland demands the extradition of Canada’s now famous Nazi. Winter is coming and Europe has no gas reserves in storage. The last thing Russia wants is to fight in big cities block by block. NATO has exhausted its ammo supply. Right now the Ukrainian army keeps charging across open fields and getting slaughtered. Why not sit tight?
Why not sit tight?
Let me begin by saying that I have no strong views on the pace of this war. However, as to your question, I think the problem is that the West does not need to fight this war symmetrically–we could begin to see coups all over the place long Russia’s borders and other ways to harm its interests (for example, Armenia and possibly Wagner). Dealing with these events would be increasingly resource-intensive (although not fatal) for Russia, but would require relatively little effort on the part of the West, who doesn’t necessarily need to see a good outcome–simply “causing chaos” is enough of a win.
I think on balance, Russia’s approach is the correct one–if it wants to dismantle NATO, it can’t do so through the barrel of a gun, but rather must wait for NATO to fall apart. I am guessing that many of the NATO countries behind closed doors are beginning to wonder how much this Article 5 so-called “guarantee” is truly worth (and it isn’t even a guarantee!), and that these discussions will become louder and more public going forward.
However, even if Russia is winning and seems certain to win, the longer a war goes, the more “chance” determines the outcome, so I see both sides to this.
If I was Russia, I would wipe out all Ukrainian power and public utilities just in time for winter. Keep all of Ukraine cold and in the dark. Ever go three (3) days without a shower? How about three (3) months? If I was Russia, I would shut everything down forever in Ukraine. If I was Russia, I would start intercepting food shipments and start starving Ukrainians.
However, I would invite the Ukrainian people to step across the Russian border for a hot meal every now and then. And a shower. Clean clothes. Medical treatment. And the Ukrainians can stay in Russia if they want.
Reports are that Ukraine has lost 53-percent of its population. Russia could take the rest.
Only the real Ukrainian Nazis would remain in Ukraine. Makes for easy de-Nazification. Like shooting Swastikas in a barrel. Solves the guerilla war component, too.
If I was Russia, I would take out all railways. I would bomb all Ukrainian airfields. Drone-up all vehicles. Make it impossible for Zelensky, or any Ukrainian, to travel. Call it a World War Lockdown.
I fully expect the United States to escalate attacks on Moscow. And in other ways too. In ways we have not seen since the last World War. Each more outrageous than the last. That is what escalation is all about.
This is what I see happening over the next seven (7) months.
I fully expect news blackouts to escalate. Channels like this one will go off the air for the duration. And maybe never come back on.
I think the next Russian offensive will be in the Spring of 2024.
All wars end up being fought with boots on the ground. Russian boots. US boots. NATO vassal state boots.
There will be no “shock and awe” media news hysteria. Not this time. The US will be attacking a peer in Russia. As soon as there are US and NATO boots on the ground, I expect Russia to attack decision making centers throughout all of the Western world — Washington, DC. Paris. London. Brussels. Berlin. Warsaw. Ottawa. Everywhere. Then Western military bases. Everywhere. The West will be demilitarized and de-Nazified. With the news blackouts, we will never hear about it.
I think the United States government is just delusional and crazy enough to make Russia turn the entire United States into a bombed-out wreck.
This is what I see come Spring of 2024.
I wouldn’t be surprised if World War 3 is the first World War where we in the West never hear a word about it.
Not even if the nukes start flying.
EMP from nukes and nothing electrical will work in the US. No car, no TV, no fridge. nuclear power plants will melt down. No money has been spent to harden anything – heck strong solar flares knock out the entire eastern seaboard – the US grid is borderline collapse, like in a war – substations keep getting shot and damaged. No diesel for farms without electricity to make diesel or pump it from the empty gas stations. Other than the Amish, US population will decrease – perhaps 90% – 300-330 million dead rotting corpses for the crows. Canned goods for the survivors for decades. You will notice as everything dies. The billionaire class will already have relocated to New Zealand.
Good points.
The Russians have placed an embargo on diesel fuel. Alexander Mercouris, Alex Christoforou, and Brian Berletic believe this is because Russia’s military requires diesel fuel and Russia is stockpiling it for the coming war.
Have you noticed the expiration dates on canned goods? Nothing lasts very long anymore. Nothing. Maybe a year.
With ICBMs nowhere is safe. Not even for the billionaire classes. Really recommend watching the 1951 classic with Gregory Peck and Ava Gardner “On the Beach.”
We wont hear when WW3 started (I think its already started), but we will definitely know when it ends.
sorry if I got very dark – sadly I just do not think anyone things nuclear war through anymore.
@ the blame-e
“There will be no “shock and awe” media news hysteria. Not this time. ”
Instead there will be panic, extreme immobilizing panic. What I fail to understand is that after WW2 USA held most of the cards, they could have worked for the betterment of the common man. Instead they chose this.
Fixation
The act of losing situational awareness by focusing on ‘one’ thing.
Ukraine is that ‘one’ thing.
Time for an instrument scan (which your essay provided)
#LogosRising
Our inclination as spectators with a long history of watching Hollywood’s versions of war or the shock and awe of the unequal Iraq war lead us to expect quick spectacular outcomes. The Russians though are actually fighting the war, one of proxy backed by a powerful nuclear armed military alliance. No doubt they have war gamed numerous scenarios that take into account their real objectives, the amount of force they can realistically bring to bear and the level of politically tolerable losses.
The truth is we have no idea what they will do, the current slow approach is achieving dividends, how long will it continue to do so, at what point does another strategy make more sense? In the end they will do what they believe is achievable short of nuclear conflict that still gives them the best outcome they can hope to attain. It may well be short of what the audience wants or it may be be more, it is probably a fluid goal that takes into account whatever the situation allows.
What most westerns don’t understand is that Russia is not a instant gratification society… The RF goals for victory have been set and they will slowly grind the SMO until the outcome is reached. They are not going to ramp up in any significant manner in Ukraine as long as they are achieving those goals. The RF is holding back for a much more future epic confrontation and they will be ready for it should it come to pass…Every decision the west has made and will make accelerates their collapse…but that is their goal in the first place to usher in the WEF wet dream
“The special operation in Ukraine will last until 2025” — Shoigu, Russian minister of defense. ( https://t.me/fred33flint/2159 )
That means two things.
#1 Russia is half way done with the SMO goals of Ukraine’s demilitarization and denazification.
#2 There will be no major changes in the Russian’s war of attrition of NATO.
(Also, it means that the Minister Shoigu is reading my posts, since about 6 months ago, I’ve calculated the end of war for 2025, based purely on demographic open-source info :0)
Please note, that before NOW, and 2025, there will be two winters during which Russia will inflict pain by hitting the Ukrainian infrastructure, in March 2024 will be the Russian presidential election, in November 2024 will be the US presidential election, and many European countries will have elections. So, there will be changes in the public opinions with the effect on the war.
Or maybe it means nothing, because Russians don’t announce their plans in advance, and also modify them on the go.
POISON FROGS:
“The special operation in Ukraine will last until 2025” — Shoigu, Russian minister of defense.
According to Alexander Mercouris, it is not about SMO but about Rearming plan 2025.
My take after listening to his argument, he is spot on. Not sure where this information is from, which is obviously misinformation.
Why would Russia want to re-unify the western alliance when it is falling apart? Don’t interrupt your enemy when it is making a mistake, especially not when it is making a fatal one. And keep you own friends on board with your ‘holier than thou’ patience.
Russia can play the long game. The west, as becomes clearer each day, cannot.
Everyone’s a general after 2 minutes on google
Paul Craig Robert (PCR) wants Russia to go hard with schock and awe in the Ukraine because he thinks that would help the USA correct course and walk back from so many wrongheaded policies he is usually complaining about with good reason. Problem is Putin cares about Russia, not about helping the USA turn in the right direction.
Problem is thinking that USA can turn in the right direction.
meanwhile Russia is building up and holding their powder dry for the eventuality of facing off America on the ground. i can understand the idea that the longer this goes on the more risky it gets, because Americans and British perceive caution as weakness, but it is better to build up your armies and be ready for a faceoff then induce a premature confrontation which will benefit noone. The US should be thinking of how to save its navy in such a case. All those aircrafts with more power than many nations are easy sitting targets for the new weaponry. If push comes to shove i expect that Russia will make sure the blue water navy is no more and then what? How is the US going to support and protect its troops 6k kilometers away?
Another decisive move by Russia and allies is to boost the price of energy destined towards the west esp. EU. Really no need bomb brainwashed Ukrainians – who are brothers and sisters to Russians – into oblivion just because NATO says so. A price hike for energy during winter would bring the entire structure of the dollar based western economy to a speedy end. Perhaps now that US is fiddling around Russia-Iran neighborhood in Caucasus region, that might be the option to consider.
👆
“”Some people feel strongly that Russia has made a mistake…””
That is useful, since some people think that feeling is believing and believing is feeling.