China’s iconic symbol is the “Dragon”. Hence my title. The next two weeks could be two of the most dangerous in the history of the United States because it appears Joe Biden and his clueless national security team are bumbling their way towards a showdown with China that is fraught with the peril of war.
The Chinese Government now rejects the One China Policy that has been the foundation of U.S./Chinese relations for 43 years. CSIS boils it down nicely:
When the United States moved to recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and de-recognize the Republic of China (ROC) in 1979, the United States stated that the government of the People’s Republic of China was “the sole legal Government of China.” Sole, meaning the PRC was and is the only China, with no consideration of the ROC as a separate sovereign entity.
The United States did not, however, give in to Chinese demands that it recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan (which is the name preferred by the United States since it opted to de-recognize the ROC). Instead, Washington acknowledged the Chinese position that Taiwan was part of China. For geopolitical reasons, both the United States and the PRC were willing to go forward with diplomatic recognition despite their differences on this matter.
The Chinese are now unyielding on their claim of sovereignty over Taiwan. It does not matter any more that Washington threatens action if China takes any steps to impose its “sovereignty”, China is going to demonstrate its sovereignty. One way it may do this is to deny Nancy Pelosi and any other dignitary from Washington, DC from flying to Taiwan and setting foot on “Chinese territory” without the permission of Beijing.
The United States does not have an embassy in Taiwan. It has a consulate, which is subordinate to the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. In other words, any official visit by a U.S. official must have country clearance from China. Got it?
What makes the current situation so dangerous is that the Commander of US Forces in the Indo-Pacific region (aka INDOPACCOM) has ordered the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group to the South China Sea as a “show of force.” This is a deliberate act to demonstrate to the Chinese that they have no sovereignty over this territory.
The Chinese reaction to this provocation is alarming:
The Chinese Army urged citizens to “prepare for war” in a social media post Friday that garnered thousands of likes, according to the state-sponsored Global Times.
Chinese officials have issued stark warnings of possible conflict should House Speaker Nancy Pelosi follow through with her promise to visit Taiwan in August, pledging a “forceful” response. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) 80th Group Army’s post received over 300,000 thumbs-up on China’s social media platform Weibo within 12 hours “amid high morale among Chinese soldiers,” the Global Times said.
“We must bear in mind the fundamental responsibility of preparing for war and charge on the journey of a strong army,” the 80th Group Army posted in a comment that received 8,000 likes, according to Global Times.
The spokesman for China’s Ministry of Defense was unusually blunt in describing China’s reaction:
Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Tan Kefei said Tuesday that a Pelosi visit to Taiwan would “seriously violate” the One China principle and “severely endanger China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
While Chinese officials have stopped short of guaranteeing all-out war with the U.S. on the grounds of Pelosi’s Taiwan trip, Kefei said that “the Chinese military will never sit idle by, and will certainly take strong and resolute measures to thwart any interference by external forces and secessionist attempts for ‘Taiwan independence,’ and firmly defend China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
What can China do apart from imposing a “No Fly Zone” over Taiwan? China has hypersonic missiles.
China maintains the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the world. Since the end of the Cold War, Beijing has rapidly modernized its missile force, growing from a small arsenal of cumbersome, inaccurate ballistic missiles into a formidable force of precision-guided ballistic and cruise missiles, loitering munitions, and—most recently—hypersonic weapons.
China’s deployment of hypersonic weapons has attracted significant attention, and for good reason. Hypersonic weapons combine the extreme speeds of ballistic missiles with the maneuverability and lower-altitude flight of cruise missiles, stressing traditional means of early warning and defense.
The hypersonic missile can sink a U.S. aircraft carrier. None of the ships in the Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group have a defense to counter the hypersonic missile. In other words, China can sink one or more ships in that Task Force if the United States ventures into the Straits of Taiwan.
All of this comes as China faces a major economic crisis at home–a collapse of the real estate market:
The crisis in China’s property market, exemplified by the default of Evergrande, the country’s most indebted real estate developer last November, is spreading. It is threatening a significant fall in economic growth under conditions where the government is battling to deal with the effects of the COVID pandemic.
Over the past few weeks, a home-buyer boycott movement has developed in which purchasers are refusing to continue payments for apartments they have purchased but which are still under construction.
One tried and true method throughout history that governments use to distract domestic discontent is to focus the public attention on a foreign threat.
When you consider all of these factors together, we have an extremely volatile situation where China may very well use military force to repel a “foreign” enemy. I realize that many of the U.S. foreign policy establishment are betting that China will back down. I would not take that bet.
Am I the only one but I would love to unload my fist into that wise ass grin of Joe Bydeen?
No. Emphatic no.
I hope China doesn’t back down. The triple whammy of Afghanistan, Ukraine and China will dramatically curtail the power of the Great American Empire by showing it to be incompetent and impotent. Short run, that will be disastrous for America but in the longer run it may discredit the empire enough to open the door to domestic change.
I cant tell any difference between democrats and republicans
on Ukraine and China. Sometimes I feel America needs to be humbled…if only it wouldnt affect us😑😑😑
Thanks for the background on this situation, Larry. Very helpful. I did not understand that nuance regarding the embassy. I assumed there was a US embassy in Taiwan.
It occurs to me that it is checkmate against the US as empire/global hegemon. This is an “interesting” time in our history, indeed. Too many Americans are acting as if it is 1946.
The reality is that the USA is now a paper tiger. We’ve demolished our industrial base and that has caused economic and social issues at home. Worse, we’ve handed critical manufacturing over to China and other countries (we’re even selling them our prime real estate and farmlands). We assumed that including them in our capitalist system would make them partners in a global new world; as if ethnic, nationalistic and cultural tendencies would no long count. As if money transcends all. At the same time we postured our military as a threat; the stick to be used if the money carrot was not accepted or used as we deemed best.
No one likes to be threatened. Ethnic, cultural and nationalistic pride is not easily overcome. In fact, they appear to be basic human drives; even harder to overcome when a people’s pride has been wounded by threats. These “others” watched the USA fail to triumph in Vietnam, in Afghanistan, in Iraq. They took the economic opportunity presented to them and made themselves stronger. They took advantage of our openness and attained educations from our universities. They stole and copied our technology. They watched and waited and planned. Meanwhile the USA culturally and morally degenerated and divided. They saw that too.
Sanctions won’t work. The sanctions against Russia are damaging Europe immensely and the damage will get worse. The USA is being hurt too. Can sanctions be applied to China as well? No way. That, on top of the current economic issues, would result in damage so massive that the Great Depression would look like fun times in comparison. In fact, at that point the USA would probably fall into widespread social unrest and civil war.
A military response? No way either. What is a carrier group going to do to China? Zip, zilch, nada, nothing – other than provide target practice for Chinese hypersonic missiles. It’s like sending a few mosquitos to take down an elephant. Unless, of course, some psychopaths decide to send nukes, in which case both Russia and China and who knows who else will reply in kind. THERE ARE NO MILITARY OPTIONS OPEN TO THE USA in Ukraine or Taiwan that will ultimately yield a result favorable to the USA.
So we’re just gonna sit there and gripe with egg on our collective face and lose some more – perhaps while beating our pathetic collective delusional chest.
And why does the average even care about Ukraine or Taiwan? Can’t see it from my house, but sure can see a lot of other troubles that no one in charge is addressing. Winning would look like bringing critical manufacturing back to the USA, improving our education system, cutting the military budget and enjoying peace and prosperity for all Americans. How hard is that?
American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) is name of the de facto U.S. embassy in Taiwan. It was established Jan 1st 1979 following the establishment of full diplomatic relations with the PRC. AIT is registered as a non-profit, private corporation of the federal government and primarily staffed by employees of the State Department (who are required to resign from government service for their period of assignment). Yes, the U.S. was more subtle back in those days…
Otherwise, the issue of Pelosi’s visit is overblown.
What is that supposed to mean?
“de Facto” embassy translates into what per international law and customs?
Overblown why? The Chinese are just joking about shooting down a representative of the United States aircraft while s/he is aboard? Is that funny? Is it evidence of a good diplomatic relationship? Really?
Sir I agree with your basic argument that Taiwan is not our problem. However I disagree with you when you state that the Chinese ” They stole and copied our technology”. Can you kindly tell me who invented the gun powder? Or may be you can explain why Indian books on Ayurvedic ( form of alternative medicine that is the traditional system of medicine of India and seeks to treat and integrate body, mind, and spirit using a comprehensive holistic approach especially by emphasizing diet, herbal remedies, exercise, meditation, breathing, and physical therapy) were carted off to England? So sir our conception that we are some geniouses and the rest of the world are inhabited by bunch of ignoramas is only detrimental to our own well being as can be evidenced by the beating taken by Ukranians at the hand of Rooskies (Gas Station pretending to be a country, running out ammo etc, etc). Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
There are many known, documented and, in some instances, prosecuted, cases wherein Chinese have infiltrated western/American industry, research universities and similar institutions and been caught red handed stealing modern technology. They have also been caught hacking and stealing information and technology that way. They have further deployed more traditional espionage methods to gain access to technology info to take back to their homeland. Again, all well documented.
I’m talking about modern inventions and technology having to do with industry and military, not ancient stuff in ancient times. There’s a huge difference. What the Chinese did or were capable of a thousand years ago or more is not relevant to what the modern communist party can do.
Don’t be so overly sensitive. I think the Central Upanishads are fantastic and should be mandatory reading at University. I think Krishna’s advice to the weak-willed Arjuna is a story everyone should read as well. I also am a fan of Taoism. But that doesn’t mean I think that a bunch of damn Chicom ant hill minded enemies of the US should be buying up American real estate and stealing our tech to use against us.
The US would never spy on commercial competitors? I clearly remember the EU being furious at the discovery that US intelligence was spying on Airbus and passing the material to Boeing.
https://www.corpwatch.org/article/usa-spying-free-trade
Eric, do you have any idea how much land abroad Bill Gates and billionaires US own? It dwarfs all combined foreign holdings in US.
Do you know how much agriculture land in US Gates alone owns? He is part of consortium buying aim to own 30% habitable land on Earth.
Do you know if he and a few others chose they could on their own mess food supply? Id worry about that more than Chinese and Russia owning land in US. We all know US is stolen land. They pay for it an as you can see if relations sour the government steals everything they have and built in West without competition or fairness.
As for espionage come on Eric, UK and US are the biggest data thiefs in the world and you know that.
Also visit any tech facility or cutting edge research area in US and find high number of Chinese, Indian and Russian American or immigrants. They dominate science and tech.
Russian Jews dominate Israel’s tech sector.
Different mindset and educational approach means these countries will produce the best. If US wants the best that’s where they hire. US education other than limited institutions, can’t compete with a basic school in these countries.
So you need them to keep up. Especially as tech minded Germans not so easy to get.
Eric, your comment was every bit as good as the article itself. Very well said. All this makes me think of the Chinese “curse” that says “May you live in interesting times”. Looks like things are about to get very interesting.
What exactly is it that makes it impossible for the Collective West to live and let live?
Why all the unrelenting search for enemies?
When you have been used to reigning as an absolute master for too long, you will find it very difficult to be removed from the throne, and you will do everything you can to drag everyone else down with you.
It is suspicious that the American gerontocracy receives so much support for its supposed trip to Taiwan.
An opportunity to eliminate them and fill the gaps left by Pelosi et al. by “helpful friends.”
A classic taken from the book “Coup d’état techniques” by Curzio Malaparte inspired by the master Leon Trotsky.
War against China or against America?
Larry lived in Argentina, surely he knows “Peronism”; is America being “peronized”? Stalin, as an anecdote, was fascinated by “Peronism”
I was wondering, myself, what would happen, if Pelosi actually invited all the GOP pols cheering her on to join her trip … and their plane got vaporized over the Philippine Sea …
There would be intense ‘public pressure’ from some quarters to retaliate militarily. But most of it would be ‘elite’ rather than grassroots pressure, and some of it would be mere lip service. I’m not sure that the administration would actually go to war, because most Americans wouldn’t miss the victims – and that includes some running the regime behind the Biden facade.
If the Chinese took out an aircraft carrier, on the other hand, we’d likely lose all hands. Any crew who survived the initial impact probably wouldn’t have time to abandon ship. That’s several thousand young men and women, probably more in an instant than died in Iraq.
They’re not the elite sociopaths who created the problem, they’re just foot soldiers (ok ‘foot sailors’). They may have made a questionable career choice – but so have many of us including myself.
There would be intense, GENUINE popular pressure for retaliation. Ill-advised, yes, but perfectly understandable and probably irresistible.
China’s multiple responses to the possible Pelosi visit can only be interpreted as real and irrevocable, given the tone. China can not back away from its warnings now. It has firmly and publicly committed itself to a military response should Pelosi visit without their permission. The problem is that the US leadership thinks this is all bluff – that China in the end, as she always has in the past, find a way to back down. They are so wrong. Just as Russia has in the past tolerated the US bad behaviour whilst they were weakened from the collapse of the USSR, so too has China. But now that both Russia and China have strengthened themselves, both economically and militarily, they no longer have to put up with US threats and intimidation.
China would now lose huge face should they back down. So the future is in the hands of the crazy neocons now as the world hopes they will back off and not foolishly believe that China is bluffing.
There is an old Urdu proverb “Jub kutae ki mout atti hai sher kay turruf dorrta hae” – which means when the dog’s time is up, it runs towards the tiger.
Perhaps something subconscious. Perhaps some unwritten law of Nature. A death wish.
Understanding how Russia and China have been standing back to back in this fight, it may not only be Chinese hypersonics the USS Ronald Reagan needs to worry about.
The US Empire is a dinosaur whose tiny brain died and the body does not know it yet. But what is dangerous is that the dinosaur is still trampling forward, and will take a while till it falls over. The alarming part of this story is the low information about it. There are virtually no headlines about a coming World War. Of course, with the medias head stuck firmly up Pedo Joe’s ass this is not a surprise. But we are sleepwalking to disaster.
Over a month ago a Russian nuclear submarine surfaced near NY, undetected, long enough to be seen. It caused the US to make frantic calls to Russia with no response and pull certain weapons to Ukraine back.
All China and Russia need to do is what US is doing to them.
Surround the US with nuclear naval forces armed with hypersonic. Make sure citizens see them and understand.
Keep them moving in that area.
I would do that rather than launch a hypersonic at pelosis dumb ass.
Watch US navy scramble.
Russia and China need to start closing down US shores.
The Taiwan Straight is 180 miles wide, and per Wikipedia the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas gives China (and all other countries) a 200 mile area from its shores that is not international waters. That makes the entire Taiwan Straight Chinese territory. When the Chinese sink the entire task force, (10? 20? Ships) they will be well within their rights. Or, have I missed something?
200 miles is the exclusive economic zone (EEZ)
Territorial Waters are generally much narrower. However, given all the little islands dotted about – there is hardly any international open waters in the Formosa Strait.
Nothing says “ready for nuclear world war” like fighters that can’t fly.
US Air Force F-35s join hundreds of military planes grounded over ejection seat safety worries
The US Air Force says it has grounded its F-35 fleet due to a faulty part in its ejection seat
The Navy, as well as the Air Force’s Education Training Command, also grounded a number of planes for the same issue.
The affected aircraft include not only the F-35, but the F/A-18 Hornet and Super Hornet, E/A-18G Growler, T-45 Goshawk and a number of training aircraft.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-air-force-f-35s-join-hundreds-of-military-planes-grounded-over-ejection-seat-safety-worries/ar-AA106PsE?cvid=1f8dcc06872543ab8333c0d522ac865f
I found this video simulation very useful for understanding the key players and escalation dynamics during a hypothetical naval showdown over Taiwan.
USA vs China: To Sink a Carrier
872,593 views Premiered Jul 8, 2021
HypOps simulates a hypothetical clash between the United States and the People’s Liberation Army in the South China Sea. A FONOP gone bad leads to a JH-7 shootdown by an Arleigh Burke class destroyer. Tensions continues to escalate, with air battles erupting between American F/A-18 and Chinese J-11 and J16 fighter aircraft with BVR AIM-120 AMRAAMS versus Chinese PL-15 and PL-12 missiles. Hostilities will escalate to the point where China will launch YJ-83s, YJ-18s, YJ-12s and even DF-21D ant-ship ballistic cruise missiles against the AEGIS missile defense systems. Just how much will it take to sink an American carrier strike group?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJXWJ-Px5tU&ab_channel=HypOps
If that hag Pelosi insists on going to Taiwan the Chinese can start by ditching the $1.5 trillion that they hold in US government bonds; that should create quite the fiasco in Washington and Wall Street. Expect other countries to follow suit as the value of those bonds plummets, leading to considerable interest rate hikes, which in turn would drastically increase mortgage repayments for millions of home-owners and trigger a depression in the US. The US Americans have better watch their step on this one!
De-dollarization has accelerated since the illegal sanctions went into hyperdrive this March. The data isn’t conclusive (yet) but initial data over last 6 months shows a trend accelerating.
Regarding the Chinese dollar holdings – they don’t need to sell, all they need to do is let their dollar bonds mature and not buy more.
For a scary back-of-the-envelope exercise – calculate the percent of Federal Budget devoted to interest payments if interest rates normalize to 5%, then calculate what happens if the Feds have to pay a risk premium say of 6-7% ? Then consider state and local finances are in worse shape.
Collapse is inevitable my friends
Dear Mr Newhill, Mr Johnson and other commentors,
It is not only China but also the Us
S, UK and EU who need
cont. who need a distraction from economic disaster and to save face.
Remember that Roosevelt knew the Japanese were coming and left one old aircraft carrier group as a sacraficial lamb or bait. Perhaps the US is the one who wants the Chinese to attack? How else can they face the music when the fall of the rest of the Ukraine is complete in November or sooner? Right now I don’t actually know but I guess tjat the Russian and Chinese assets are not in position off the US coasts. So the window of opportunity to attack Russia and China is closing. So provoke an attack now like they did in the Ukraine and blame the “evil communists”?
I left out of the Pearl Harbor reference that the US had embargoed Japan’s oil, an act of war, before Pearl Harbor, so the Japanese attack was not a sneak attack at all – a state of war existed before it
Jimmywalter,
Sorry, but you’re slipping into the conspiracy theory zone again. I kind of like you when you stay on non-Kool-Aid side, but that CT stuff messes up your outlook.
The US didn’t allow the Japs to attack Pearl Harbor so we could get into a war with them. Carrier warfare was a new thing and no one understood it fully. At the time, it was believed the Pearl Harbor was out of reach of Jap carrier based aircraft – and , really, it was. Just the japs made a bold, dicey, albeit well planned attack that many would have deemed too risky. Like 9/11, the possibility of the attack was outside of the imaginations of our military leadership.
Furthermore, the Japs invaded the Philippines and other islands immediately after the attack on Pearl Harbor. They were going to do that regardless of their level of success at PH. So the casus belli was going to exist PH or no PH.
Finally, don’t make the Japs out to be poor victims of aggressive US policy. The japs had invaded China and imposed a vicious ruthless imperial rule over conquered territories. The Imperial Japanese were not good guys by any measure and they were dead set on imperialistic conquests because of their ideology first and economic considerations second. The US was in the way of their desired and planned conquests.
The more appropriate question to ask is why the US cared about the island nations in the Pacific. Were the costs/benefits worth the defense of those islands? Was there another approach? Is/was there an ethical/moral imperative to defend the islands? Those are the type of questions that are still relevant today. I don’t have definitive answers to them, just opinions.
But this – “US had embargoed Japan’s oil, an act of war, before Pearl Harbor, so the Japanese attack was not a sneak attack at all – a state of war existed before it”. Again, ignores what the Imperial Japanese had been doing and were planning to do. However, I think the part about the state of war is correct. That’s where we are today with regards to Russia, China and Iran. It’s de facto war. It just hasn’t gone full-on kinetic. But the risk is that full-on kinetic is where it is likely to end up. Pretty much that is what happened in UKR. The Russians had enough and acted.
Another really important question that isn’t discussed by politicians, military leaders or the MSM is “what does full-on kinetic look like”? I do see any scenario where the US prevails. In fact, I will state that the US prevailing is an absolute impossibility. What if the BRICS countries make their assessment same as mine and call our bluff? The only factor preventing that – or slowing it down – in my opinion, is the possibility of the whole thing culminating in nuclear war. Is the US crazy enough to go there as they watch themselves losing a shooting war? If the assessment by BRICS leaders, correct or incorrect, is “no. they won’t go there”, then we will have WW3 soon enough. If the assessment is “yeah. they probably would go there”, then we simmer for years in an increasingly tension filled dangerous world amidst an economic war with more proxy shooting war flare-ups around the world. We all suffer material deprivations until something gives – and anything could give. It is a very challenging environment in which to develop fair predictions.
Ad hominem attacks are irrelevant and indicate you have nothing better to say, which you do. Why don’t you give them up and stick to what good things you do say and support them? And, btw, this site is full of conspiracy theories about the MSM, the Dark State, etc. So your “conspiracy” theories are ok, but mine are not?
I never said the Japanese were victims. They were aggressors. They did terrible things to innocent, non combatants as well as the POW’s. I ghosted a book on their POW camp in Taiwan, “Banzi You Bastards” for Jack Edwards. In it I detailed the horrors of the copper mine that they were forced to work in. The prisoners would deliberately break their own legs in order to get out of working in copper poison laden waters, heat, and other pains in the mines.
We know that the US had broken the Japanese code and knew they were coming to Pearl Harbor. We know that Roosevelt withdrew most of the fleet from Pearl Harbor. We know that he was not even taken aback when they told him about it. We know that Roosevelt wanted to enter the war in both Europe and the Pacific.
The most relevant question left today is why did we nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki when the Japanese army and navy were defeated and they were getting ready to surrender, if the US would not hang their king? That was a war crime since there were no significant war facilities in either. Moreover, the US war crimes in the fire bombing of Tokyo and other cities has already terrorized them. The answer to that one is clear: They wanted to terrorize the Soviets; show them we had a working weapon and would use it on civilians.
No. The Jap code was broken later, just prior to the Battle of Midway; not before Pearl Harbor was attacked. The carriers were not in PH b/c they were out on missions. Some to the Atlantic and some to Wake Island. There is nothing strange about that. Is it so weird to you that carriers would be assigned missions to do what carriers do? In your mind should they have just sat at PH as long as it took for the Japs to destroy them?
Intelligence capabilities were not so good back then. The Japs couldn’t have known the carriers would be gone by the date the attack was planned to jump off. They did know by Dec 7th that the carriers had left, but decided to go ahead with the attack anyhow.
Yes, conspiracy happen. There are even laws that speak to them and organizations and individual convicted on evidence of being conspirators. However, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. Just b/c there are conspiracies doesn’t mean that everything is a conspiracy. A case has to be made, on the evidence and beyond reasonable doubt. These conspiracy theories you bring up, so far, are idiotic. I’m not even going to discuss them with you anymore because the CTs are like a pathology and I know I can’t make a dent regardless of how much simple logic and facts I apply. But sheesh, man, try to at least get the fundamental facts straight before concocting the theory.
As for the nukes over Japan, the battle of Okinawa had just concluded. It was terrible. As an aside my father fought there in the 6th Marine Division and was wounded in action. By all accounts it was hell on earth. Something like 80 to 120 Okinawan civilians were caught in the cross fire and killed (same or more than killed by either A-bomb). Us losses in men and materiel were huge. That includes ships and sailors lost to Kamikazes + Marines and soldiers fighting on the island.
Okinawa was a prelude to the invasion of Japan. The US realized it was going to simply be too costly given the trend. The Japs were not done. They had a million men + under arms. They had begun preparing civilians to fight as land based Kamikazes armed with old rifles , spears and suicide bombs. The japs still held large swaths of Asia and they still had hundreds of thousands of POWS and civilian prisoners, who the US feared would be executed if the war continued (or just die from starvation and general abuse and disease).
The Japs would not surrender after the capture of Okinawa by the US. That is a fact. They had to be totally subjugated. Japanese lives were deemed not worth another single US life. Too many had already been lost. And the A-bomb was deemed to be saving not only a million US casualties, but also more than that in Japanese lives.
Thems the facts. You can dismiss it as “the official narrative” and claim to have the secret real truth, as CTers are wont to do. But you will be scoffed at by anyone who has truly studied the war in depth.
80 to 12 = 80K to 120K (thousand)
So is Mr Martyanov now a dreaded conspiracy theorist:
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/08/the-oldest-trick-in-book.html
Martyanov has useful things to say. However, he is not the final arbiter of reality.
You don’t think he might have an axe to grind that skews his analysis?
I don’t see what the link has to do with the attack on Pearl Harbor.
It’s really easy…Pelosi stays home, however, there are always complications.
Unseen by the average schlep, the underlying issue which drives this or any other Hegemon or Empire is resoundingly accurate.
“ Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall”
Whether we admit to it or not, that’s who we are as a nation, can’t argue with reality!!!
It’s Popcorn time.
Hard decision. Risk of nuclear war Vs chance to get rid of Pelosi…hard choice.
Tell me who you hand around with and I’ll tell who you are. Social relationships develop into patterns just like individual behavior does.
To understand how global Capitalists will behave today as a social group we need to examine how they think. A capitalist realizes that while most of their businesses costs are fixed, such a raw materials, machinery, utilities, etc., labor can be modified and reduced to increase profit. Profit is their goal. Capitalist do not have a better nature. That is why global capitalists move to areas where labor is inexpensive for them. If slavery were available they would certainly have slaves to increase profits. Often global capitalists find creative ways to secure low wage workers and circumvent regional labor laws as much as possible. It is the role of the State to defend worker’s rights. However, if the State has been compromised by the oligarchs then poverty and discontent ensues. Countries or movements that seek to enhance the life of its citizens rather than enhance capitalist’s profits are natural enemies of Capitalists.
What happens when the Global Capitalists cannot control a low wage region or country or they desire resources from a country without resistance? The only recourse left for them is regimen change via any type of violence, including economic warfare. That is the reason for those current attempts for regimen change in Russia, China and elsewhere. A wise leader knows this and prepares his people in advance.
Global capitalists cannot stop thinking as they do and like addicts they need to reach bottom before they have an opportunity to change their behavior. If that “touching bottom” event leads to anger the result will be relapse. For example, if the narcissistic injury Trump suffered with his failed reelection campaign to the presidency of the USA leads him to anger, then Trump will most likely return with avenge. We will see more erratic and aggressive behavior from him than before. If a debacle event leads to humility relapse may be avoided. We know by experience that very few obsessive addicts rehabilitate themselves. Capitalists are no exception.
The unnatural obsessive attachment to wealth rather than the pursue of common good is the historical dynamic of fallen kingdoms. The scepter of power has changed hands from one kingdom to another due to this unnatural obsession to wealth which leads to the opposite, poverty. The 500 year kingdom initiated with the Reformation movement is about to end for the same reason.
The Chinese have learned that it is not permitted to give a howitzer to a clean shaven president, so they are not intimidated.
The odds are +500 that China turns her plane back or directs it to Beijing. Pelosi’s pilot should remember the last time Chinese airmen tangled with US warplanes. Sure, a Chinese pilot died, and the US had to beg to get its plane back, but the fact that the CCP pilot engaged so close is a lesson to be learned.
Pelosi is looking for congress critters to accompany her on her planned trip. Let’s see who joins her. Bottoms up.
Let’s just hope someone blinks (I don’t think it will be the PRC though).
“This is a deliberate act to demonstrate to the Chinese that they have no sovereignty over this territory.”
Yes, that’s absolutely true. It is properly called freedom of navigation. The US has been doing this since we first had a navy. The South China Sea is a big place and not China’s sovereign territory. Too bad the communist government’s feelings are hurt.
B.S. the U.S. does not believe in ‘freedom of navigation’, only dominance. The U.S. has seized and blocked cargo ships from China, N. Korea, Iran, and Venezuela that were carrying civilian goods, ‘coal, oil, gasoline’.
Name ONE instance where China has done that.
I forgot to mention food. The U.S. prevented Iran from shipping corn it bought from Brazil. Again I ask, give me ONE example of China doing that.
Yup. US now officially worlds biggest pirate. The Somali pirates of old can only look on in envy as they chew khat and curse the infidel taking their business to another level.
Also who made these law of the sea? Guess.
Bottom line, a threat is a threat and if you get too close to a power center you risk your life.
During the opium trade, an Iraqi Jew called Sassoon was given rights backed by British military might to force opium on Chinese as Britain wanted tea but did not want to pay with silver so paid with drugs forcibly grown in India and forcibly – yes forcibly- fed to Chinese until they were addicted and drug addled their army so it could not fight. Mao ended this. HK was given to Sasson as distribution center. The British forcibly drugged the Chinese using a Jew for 150 years for a fucking cup f tea and stuff they couldn’t be bothered to pay for.
Just get your head around that and you begin to understand why countries Iike China, India, Iran and Russia will never trust the West.
Because we resent their success, their smarts, their civilizations, their greater wealth.
So if I was Chinese and had the West buzzing around my shores again, I would understand exactly what it meant and it doesn’t mean they care about the good people of Taiwan who the Britain were also happy to forcibly drug and enslave, it means the West is coming for another free lunch to take what China has built through hard work.
So yeah, I’d get myself a shitload of missiles and say come mother fuckers, we are ready for you this time.
Chris,
Who appointed me arbitor of interpreting China’s foreign policy? But since you asked:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-navy-ships-off-alaska-passed-through-u-s-territorial-waters-1441350488
And then there’s this:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/sep/17/chinese-fishing-armada-plundered-waters-around-galapagos-data-shows
You left out this about the North Koreans:
“The U.S. federal court in the Southern District of New York (SDNY) authorized the sale of the seized North Korean cargo vessel last week, following a claim filed by the parents of Otto Warmbier, an American student who died shortly after returning to the U.S. from detention in North Korea.”
https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_us-marshals-sell-seized-north-korean-cargo-ship/6172752.html
Does siezing a nation’s port facility count as “name one time China did that?”
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/sri-lanka-hands-over-port-to-china-to-pay-off-debt-1.684606
Should I bother spending 5 minutes answering the rest of your emotional outburst?
Actually the ports were security for debt. The hover voluntarily chose that debt. The choice was
– secure Chinese loan against ports
– take IMF loan and be forced to remove subsidies on basic necessities like fuel, food etc and to lose freedom over your tax code and fiscal policy
Unfortunately lending is always secured on something and a borrower always has something they value to lose.
So the ports China has are not owns by it per se but operated by it until debt is paid as they have no other way to get the money back. Same as IMF, onc debt cleared do what you want.
As for the North Korean cargo vessel, should everyone behave like that the world would be in chaos and US already applied sanctions.
Yes Chinese are big plunderers of fish, like other smaller nations too, but that’s not the worst crime in the world like say, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria.
No one is saying any government is angels, but let’s keep perspective. China catching fish is not the same as US nuclear armed ships aggressively hovering around China and running war practice drills.
Biden has Covid again.
He’s a sick old man.
1. Not an official statement from the Chinese govt but a media personality.
2. Even at that, the media personality never said that Pelosi could not go to Taiwan, he said that she could not go to Taiwan with a military escort . The presence of U.S. fighter jets is itself a violation of the one China policy.
https://www.christianpost.com/news/chinese-state-media-threatens-china-shoot-down-nancy-pelosi-plane-taiwan-visit.html
Has the media personality been chastised by the CCP? Has the CCP clarified that it welcomes Pelosi to Taiwan? How much separation is there really between the media and the CCP in China?
You have probably already read it, but Moon has a detailed account of the Chinese verbage
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/how-china-warns-of-pelosis-taiwan-trip.html
Here are the details of the Japanese code breaking and what the US knew
https://slate.com/human-interest/2013/11/u-s-in-world-war-ii-how-the-navy-broke-japanese-codes-before-midway.html
You are drawing incorrect conclusions b/c you don’t understand how this works – and b/c you hate the US government and have convinced yourself that it is – and always has been – a demonic force responsible for everything bad that happens in the world. You are too quick to look for proof that your feeling is merited.
JN–25 was the specific code used by the Japanese Navy early in the war, including during the Pearl Harbor attack. It is different from diplomatic and other military codes that the US may have cracked prior to 1941. JN-25 wasn’t cracked until after the Pearl Harbor attack; as I already said, just prior to the Battle of Midway.
What you apparently don’t understand is that each service branch, each diplomatic mission, etc. will have a different set of codes. The codes are “compartmentalized”, if you will. That adds layers of security, keeps everything on a strict need to know basis.
So, no, the US wasn’t aware of the impending attack on Pearl Harbor b/c the US hadn’t crack the JN code yet.
I Iike Tucker Carlson, but his persistent attacks on China which are gross distortion and show no understanding of economics or history or geopolitics make him sound like the fools on MSNBC and CNN. Otherwise. He’s the best there is on objectivity.
I think you’re way underestimating the threat that China poses. I like Russia and think it is a natural ally of the US.
The CCP? Not at all. The Han are for the Han. I respect that their nationalism. WE should be nationalistic too. But the Han do not respect us. They are very different and they seek to take for themselves at our expense. They are a natural enemy.
Eric, can you back that up with any examples?
I have quite a bit of experience with China and I don’t think China is any threat other than they will outcompete the West. They are not going to militarily attack the West unless provoked. They are first and foremost a business nation and keep themselves to themselves.
They also learn and adapt. The poaching by Chinese in Africa met an outcry with result China clamped down on it and started education programs.
Most Chinese live in largely China dominated areas and work exceptionally hard. They want what you want,a job, stability,a house,good education for their kids and opportunity.
Are they capable of being ruthless, absolutely. Of breaching established human rights, sure. But they have taken millions of their people out of poverty and helped develop many countries infrastructure without interfering in their values or domestic policy.
So no they are not perfect, they are also not homogeneous or stupid.
The West fears them because people on the West are programmed using Berger/Freud methods to always have an enemy and feel exposed without one. This is psychological conditioning, not truth.
Chinese look different, are culturally different, are getting rich so fear them. That’s the democrats approach.
Trump had it right. These are smart people in a success country, legs compete fairly and get a win win deal that means conflict less likely.
Biden approach let’s provoke humiliate and annoy China, let’s punish them,for what exactly. Let’s make something up. Oh Taiwan will do.
Let’s forget America is illegally occupying Chagos Garcia and Guatanamo, in the face of European court orders and protests from the natives.
Yes yes, the world is so much better when we play let’s pretend.
Let’s now pretend the Chinese are our enemy, even though they have done nothing to the West. Yes. Let’s play that game.
Have you been to China?
I have not been to China. They produce deadly narcotics to be sold on the US market. They seed our culture with destructive memes. They bribe our politicians and business leaders. They steal technology. They invade our universities and take the knowledge back to China. They are all over the globe exploiting opportunities. They are buying up valuable assets in the US.
Yes, they are smart and industrious. They don’t need to attack militarily because they have found other ways to take over the world. And yes, our leaders are so short sighted and greedy that they are easy marks. But it is the Chinese that exploit the weakness.
I hate it when an enemy’s actions are excused because the US did or does this or that. It’s not a winning way to think. Any nation has done something in its past that could be used to label it as terminally guilty and not deserving of self-defense. Occupying GITMO is hardly the same as taking Taiwan. Or purging the Uyghurs. The Chinese system of government is not one I’d like to live under, top down, authoritarian, little by way of civil rights. No thanks.
What I hate most about the Bidens and globalists generally and their techno trash buddies is that they appear to want to model the Chinese system. I will resist that to my last breath. If you like it, then good for you. Go live in China.
P.S. Nothing I said above should be construed to mean that I think we should go to war over Taiwan.
My opinion is that we should take our manufacturing back from China, we should make a law that they can’t buy US assets. We should kick them out of our universities and out of our domestic tech industries. We should set tarrifs and other mechanisms so they can’t undercut our production with cheap junk they produce. in their filthy sweatshops. Screw them. Then educate our population in STEM, etc so that our own people can work in our own industries and afford our superior non-sweatshop produced goods.
Eric,
Noted, but lots of countries including US produce deadly narcotics, oxytocin, Columbia brown, this is not just Chinese and they are a minor supplier taken as a whole.
All tech savvy countries steal technology any way they can. Currently on key tech like 5 and 6G and hypersonics they are more advanced. I’m sure we are fully engaged trying to nick that from them. That’s normal. We have spies there they will have them here. We buy a politician there, they buy one too.
What is the difference between gitmo and Uyhurs treatment? Same concept. No trial. No justice. Just incarcerations of perceived or actual enemy.
In terms of universities, there is an argument that sensitive research should be limited to citizens, but even in US universities Chinese students help in research.
In terms of land agricultural land is restricted to citizens in most countries. Not sure on policy of each state but there’s is an argument for that. The threat to property right now is banks and hedge funds buying it like mad and that manipulates prices and supply. Home ownership in US declined under Obama
, still declining.
I still don’t see why they are an enemy instead of a competitor. In my view the US should relish the competition and prepare for it. Locking the door and saying go away won’t help. This is an excellent to think about what you just said below, shouldn’t the model change and self sufficiency in key sectors be a goal rather than profit maximization.
If you move manufacturing from China it goes to Vietnam, Mexico etc because corporations are profit driven. Pensions are invested in corporate stocks. So even a basic a self sufficient model will be. Big change.
Ash,
I think you’re better than that. You can hold two different thoughts simultaneously, as can I. I am a proponent of the new American revolution. Our leadership (elected, appointed and in some business sectors, like Perdue pharmaceuticals) is out of control and needs to be stopped. However, that doesn’t make China ok. Our leadership is a threat to our Constitution and way of life; our freedom and prosperity – and China is a threat to our Constitution, way of life and prosperity.
Get it? I’m coming from the perspective of The People. Washington DC no longer represents me or the vast majority of Americans. It’s a rogue treasonous element occupying the government.
Ash,
Just say “no” to bat munchers
Eric,
I understand where you are coming from, but consider this also below. I also am a believer in protecting borders and vetting immigrants to ensure social cohesion and resource management.
In 1922, Lippman, who wrote the book on manipulation of public opinion stated:
“The only feeling that anyone can have about an event he does not experience is the feeling aroused by his mental image of that event … For it is clear enough that under certain conditions men respond as powerfully to fictions as they do to realities.”
‘And it was this psychological manipulation that these men employed to turn an entire nation of peaceful Americans into rabid war-mongers. ‘ in WW2.
> What I hate most about the Bidens and globalists generally and their techno trash buddies is that they appear to want to model the Chinese system.
They only want the form of the Chinese system – walled off internet and creepy social media controls – but not the substance. The key to their system is to not allow billionaires do whatever they want. Jack Ma got disappeared for months for even suggesting a system like the City of London or Wall Street.
Well we see the results of that system today. Through various ‘non profit’ foundations these billionaires have sewn the seeds of the destruction of civil society itself. None of it, from environmentalism to creating protected classes based on niche sexual fetishes to de-gendering the Spanish language is authentic. It’s all top down. You don’t think neo-pronouns just came out of nowhere do you?
Ash,
No argument me. What you have described is the reason d’être for info ops. Manipulate and motivate the population in a direction desired by the manipulators. Use images and stories that resonate deeply with population. Play to archetypes.
If you’re to war, you have to get the population – and especially prospective troops – fired up to do really do it.
But this is a sword that cuts both ways. The other guys are countering it with the same techniques.
Nancy Pelosi seems interested in touching off a major diplomatic crisis which is extremely dangerous and stupid. There is no payoff from deliberately provoking China and plenty of danger. Truly unbelievable.