Joe Biden made a semi-coherent speech in Kiev and may do an encore on Tuesday in Poland. I am confident he will display the same muddled thoughts and tangled syntax if he gets to a podium. Winston Churchill can rest in peace. Compared to Churchill, Biden’s oratory skills remind one of a chattering, grinning baboon. I wonder if the bookies in Vegas or London are offering odds on how many times he shouts and how many times he whispers in one speech? Got to admit it. The following furry fellow displays more charm and warmth than sleepy Joe.
Which brings me to Putin. He ain’t monkeying around. His much anticipated speech to both houses of the Russian parliament and to the military leadership will stand in stark contrast to the mumblings of Joe Biden. One subject where Biden is likely to break new ground is Russia’s future military alliance with China. Up to now Russia and China have participated in joint-exercises but, like a couple in the early stages of dating, they have not decided to tie the knot and get hitched. Not until now. The courting period may be ending and the dawn of a Russian/Chinese military alliance may be at hand.
Why do I say this? I am reading the tea leaves of leaks from the Biden team. This CNN piece is a prime example:
The officials would not describe in detail what intelligence the US has seen suggesting a recent shift in China’s posture, but said US officials have been concerned enough that they have shared the intelligence with allies and partners at the Munich Security Conference over the last several days.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said.
“The Secretary was quite blunt in warning about the implications and consequences of China providing material support to Russia or assisting Russia with systematic sanctions evasion,” a senior State Department official told reporters.
Vice President Kamala Harris also alluded to China’s support for Russia during her speech in Munich.
Would China entertain entering such an alliance? I think it is a distinct possibility. I want to direct you to a piece in The Diplomat from March of 2022, 3 Possible Futures for China-Russia Military Cooperation, After the Ukraine war, will China maintain, expand, or scale back its military cooperation with Russia? by Brian Waidelich. Mr. Waidlich presents three scenarios. Two of those scenarios conclude that China will stick with the status quo or that Russian and Chinese ties could weaken. It is his third scenario that caught my eye:
Future 3: Cooperation Is Markedly Strengthened
Unlike the two scenarios above, a future of strengthened China-Russia military cooperation may have less to do with the way the Ukraine conflict plays out and more to do with China’s perception of threats in the Indo-Pacific. Such a future would see the United States and its allies increasingly united in their rhetoric and actions aimed at pressuring China over its declared interests in areas such as Taiwan, the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and disputed islands in the South China Sea. China may find it beneficial to visibly strengthen its military ties with Russia if it believes the chances of an Indo-Pacific conflict are growing and that military cooperation with Russia could enhance its deterrence messaging against the U.S. and its allies.
Kudos to Mr. Waidlich. China clearly faces increased threats from the U.S. and its European allies. Waidlich goes on to sketch out what he believes a more cooperative relationship would look like:
- Enhanced technical cooperation, to potentially include ongoing Chinese purchases of Russian arms and an expansion of joint development projects on platforms that incorporate key Russian technologies (e.g., submarines). Amid expanded cooperation in this area, China may seek to pressure Russia to reduce its arms sales to countries with which China has territorial disputes, such as India and Vietnam.
- Expanded combined exercises that exhibit greater frequency, scale, and complexity. Combined exercises could continue to feature high-end warfighting topics like anti-submarine warfare and anti-surface warfare and potentially expand to joint exercises with multiple military services.
- More targeted combined patrols, to include air and maritime patrols around Japan and possibly other U.S. allies — or the United States itself. Chinese military ships and aircraft have in recent years demonstrated capabilities to operate at increasingly distant ranges in the Pacific.
- More frequent key leader exchanges, during which leaders articulate shared assessments of the security environment and determination to support each other’s interests. Related readouts would continue to affix blame on the U.S. and its allies for geostrategic instability from Eastern Europe through Asia.
I would add one more possibility — a mutual defense pact. No more making out in the back seat of the car at the drive in (I know, I date myself with that one). Russia and China could decide to get married and climb into bed. The bellicose language that the U.S. routinely hurls at China is taken seriously in Beijing. The American belligerence directed at the Chinese cannot be excused as unintended speech caused by slamming too many whiskeys at the corner bar. It is not just Biden. American politicians, journalists and average citizens speak openly of China as “our enemy.” Two years ago a poll revealed that:
Since rift between China and America has widened into a yawning chasm. Have we reached the point where the Chinese leadership are going to acknowledge this fact and take steps to defend themselves? The war in Ukraine and the West’s extravagant support to keep the war going, by supplying both funds and weapons, has not gone unnoticed in Beijing. The verbal attacks on China in the wake of the weather/”spy” balloon have added to the already tense relations between Washington and Beijing.
What do you think? Will Putin comment on Russia’s relations with China?
This would not be happening had the 2020 election NOT BEEN STOLEN! The War Mongers have forced the issue with Russia who had better be careful with the CCP per what happened when NAZI Germany decided to invade Russia!
Right. That pro-China love fest we saw during the Trump administration definitely would have dissuaded China from seeking succor in the Russian bear.
Why does Russia need to announce a Defence Pact with China ???????
Britain never revealed the secret agreements it had with France over naval deployment prior to 1914 – in fact it was not even known to the Cabinet !
What is this “CNN must know !” routine ?
Why does Russia need to announce a Defence Pact with China ???????
Britain never revealed the secret agreements it had with France over naval deployment prior to 1914 – in fact it was not even known to the Cabinet !
What is this “CNN must know !” routine ?
Hitler did not declare war – he simply sent 3,000,000 men across the USSR border…….
USA last declared war in 1942 on Hungary and Romania
Why all this obsession with Prime TV ?
Once again people say that if only the 2020 lections had not been stolen. Ask the question, who are the main adversaries to the US hegemony? Answer is China and Russia. Who will the US try and subdue to maintain this hegemony? China and Russia.
Initially it looked like the Democrats got the job of confronting Russia and the Republicans China. Look at Trump sanctioning China and trying to cozy up to Russia. If by some miracle Trump had managed to befriend Russia, the US would have gone after China and when China was done a new President would have turned his/her attention to Russia. Its the same policy just masked differently.
“China has been dumping bonds since late 2021 as Biden has been claiming the US will defend Taiwan. I can confirm that under EVERY possible military play, the US will lose. I have reported this before. The US cannot defeat China – PERIOD! With China now selling off US debt and shifting to gold, they are seeking to insulate themselves from any Western currency since Biden violated every international law to impose sanctions on Russia. China elected Xi Jinping because Pelosi when to Taiwan just before the election confirming that we are headed to war.”
Beware the Plot Behind Interest Rates Martin Armstrong
Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain before you understand the real trend. It is true that Federal Reserve officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place until more progress is made, according to minutes released from the central bank’s December meeting. Also what has been reported is that at that meeting, policymakers expressed the importance of keeping the restrictive policy in place while inflation holds unacceptably high.
Now let’s look behind the curtail for just a peek. War ALWAYS impacts interest rates and they traditionally rise in periods of such conflict. After Europe kept rates NEGATIVE from 2014, that means every bond they sold for 8 years is now losing money. This was the bond crisis in London and then you had Janet Yellen come out and revealed the real silent worry.
Yellen came out and proposed that the Treasury buy in long-term debt and swap it for short-term. Some were out there claiming the Treasury was competing with the Fed as a second central bank. That just illustrated how much they do not understand what is going on or even how the monetary system works. The proposal was NOT another QE. The Treasury cannot create money as can the Fed. She was talking about a SWAP because the long-term debt is in crisis mode with the coming war. Smart players want to swap long-term for the short-term.
China has been dumping bonds since late 2021 as Biden has been claiming the US will defend Taiwan. I can confirm that under EVERY possible military play, the US will lose. I have reported this before. The US cannot defeat China – PERIOD! With China now selling off US debt and shifting to gold, they are seeking to insulate themselves from any Western currency since Biden violated every international law to impose sanctions on Russia. China elected Xi Jinping because Pelosi when to Taiwan just before the election confirming that we are headed to war.
Against this backdrop, the Fed CANNOT lower interest rates. This is NOT 100% about inflation anymore. The Fed realizes that the Biden Administration is determined to create World War III. As we are heading into a war they must adopt a war posture as well. Hence, interest rates will remain firm because not just inflation driven by shortages, but by the fact that the long-term liquidation continues, and lowering interest rates would now cause a capital crisis when staring war in the eyes.
It’s a certainty, Larry. All those American diplomats and statesmen who spent their careers keeping the Bear and Dragon apart must be spinning in their graves.
Kissinger’s not dead ! He toured last year. Tommy went to see him. 🙂
The more belligerent and bossy the US Administration gets the closer they will push Russia and China.
The DC establishment is clearly out of control, calling for war and this makes them unpredictable.
China and Russia are a good fit strategically, their resources and technology compliment each other.
An alliance is the logical thing to do in my opinion.
It’s even worse because also the not so peaceful EU is pushing for more war very aggressively
China sees the future coming
I think it’s very possible that China and Russia will get into a strategic defense alliance
China knows that they are the real goal of the Neocons and they would be wise to ally with Russia rather sooner than later
The neocons still have not forgiven Russia and Putin for pissing in their punch bowl during the Yeltsin years.
There were a lot of lost fortumes that came as a result of MRGA.
The Clinton’s were on track to be multi-billionaires, and a whole line of parasites were waiting to cash in.
First, let’s explain the widespread hatred of China in USA – it has two main reasons: 1) every junkie hates his dealer and 2) jealousy – we are in a decline, drowning in cancel culture and wokeness and China is ascending. The same can be said, in fact, of our hatred of Russia – a cohesive society that is actually much more diverse than America will ever be and the diversity is based on a thousand years of living together organically. Everyone who has been to Russia knows that you have many places where Buddhist temples intersect with churches intersect with mosques. Chechens are Muslim yet they are the most fervent Russians. The far Pacific marines who are fighting near Ugledar look more Chinese than they do Russian. So on and so on. See, Russia has actually achieved diversity in the religious and racial sense. We in America and EU, on the other hand, have to ram it down the populace’s throats and it is still not working… So, more jealousy. Then there is the economy – both China and Russia make stuff. They are also very clear of where their social values are. They are also respectful of the rest of the world they work with. Why? ‘Cause neither China nor Russia have any colonial experience, to the contrary, Russia spent a lot of its history successfully fighting off colonizers and China was a victim of said colonizers. Finally, a country like Russia has given the world so much – mathematicians, composers, writers, scientists etc. etc. Look around and what has the USA given the world?
So, yeah – I think there are more commonalities between China and Russia (and India and most of the global south) than there are between USA/UK/EU and the rest of the world. It is a natural/organic thing.
Now, a defense pact? Probably not, at least not officially. But in the background – sure – the Chinese (and the rest of the world of BRICS and global south) naturally gravitate towards Russia’s struggle against the colonial west and have no desire to continue the masterslave relationship with the decadent West. The war in Ukraine has just given them the necessary critical mass to actually articulate that publicly to the likes of Blinken, since now the global south has a cause to rally behind. Maybe the populations of the non-Western world do not know all the details but their governments have sources that can see who is doing what in this war (including terr*rist acts like Nord Stream) and let’s just say, none of these governments want anything to do with Washington or London anymore.
The real issue is that the lefties do not actually want “diversity” they want it their way only with them in charge forcing their idiocy on the rest of us.
“Cause neither China……. have any colonial experience, to the contrary, ……. China was a victim of said colonizers.”
Really? Are you serious? Do you know anything of history?
In the 19th century, China was merely the weakest and most corrupt of the imperial powers, and this is why it lost in imperialist competition with the other imperial powers. They like to dress it up as colonialist oppression, but that is a lie and a poor excuse for their failures. It had only recently consolidated its control of Central Asia where it truly has engaged in colonial resettlement of ethnic Han Chinese.
It invaded and occupied Tibet in the 11th or 12th century. It occupied Vietnam for hundreds of years, the Vietnamese do not forget.
With the dissolution of the Xing Empire in 1912 or so, Tibet declared independence.
Did the Chinese Revolution bring freedom and self-determination to the subject peoples?
Hell, NO!
Tibet was first invaded, and then a few years later a rebellion was brutally suppressed.
The Hanification and suppression of Uighir culture has recently been stepped up, and it has been extended to Inner Mongolians.
Of all the imperial powers of the year 1900, China is the only one to have successfully retained its hold on the territory it held then.
You are quite wrong about Chinese history.
The Chinese indeed have had emperors in the past, but China has had a pretty stable sense of its geography as the “ Middle Kingdom” for the past 5 thousand years. Barring some territorial disputes along its borders, it has not sought distant colonies to loot, plunder and enslave. It has never had imperial colonial ambitions. Even the invasion of Tibet was triggered by a move to break off of from China and be independent, very likely a colour revolution instigated by the West, just like the current-situation in Taiwan.
Nor have the Chinese in their long history been war-like as the Europeans, Americans, or Japanese. Much of their strife has been either with invaders or internal strife. After all, the Chinese went through the trouble and built the Great Wall to keep invaders out.
Speaking of Asian invaders, I watched a Bruce Lee movie the other day (worst acting this side of the Death Wish series), but interestingly enough, the similarity in faces between Bruce Lee’s trainee and Charles Bronson the Silesian blew me away.
Ever heard of Romance of the Three Kingdoms? Ancient China was an extremely proud and warlike place, and its military history (“internal strife” as you put it) variously vicious, bloody, epic, and glorious. Some of the tales of death and destruction can scarcely be believed by our modern sensibilities.
A couple days back there was a discussion of the meaning of “decimate”. One story from China’s history involves the conquest of modern-day Sichuan province. The conquering general executed 10% of the population, and a further 20% died in the ensuing chaos and starvation.
Sichuan is in China the last time I looked, not in India, Africa or South America.
Humanity everywhere has a brutish history. The question here is whether China has ever had imperial ambitions as in having vast array of distant colonies like Europeans, Americans and the Japanese in their much shorter relative history.
The honest answer to that (untainted by current anti-Chinese propaganda and unclouded by Sinophobia) is “no”.
@Elial
But I didn’t address my comment to Chinese imperialism, did I? You may notice that it was directed at the notion that Chinese have never been warlike peoples, as the various peoples agglomerated into the present-day Han most certainly were (as well as being civilized and scholarly).
Ancient Chinese peoples never really turned their aggression on other nearby peoples because, like most ancient peoples, they were busy turning their warlike intentions on each other. Most of China’s storied 5,000-year history is not of a single imperial polity but various states competing against each other (even competing empires), sometimes warring and sometimes allying. Beijing and Chengdu were once as foreign to each other as Paris and Berlin.
It is to Imperial China’s credit that it never really invaded its neighbors. (On the other hand if PRC wishes to claim the fruits of Mongol aggression, as it does with Tibet, perhaps it might also own the Mongol conquest of Russia, India, and every country between.)
Part of the reason is that the emperors had their hands full governing the vast territory of China, long the most populous region on Earth. Another part is that Imperial China discounted the value of other peoples and countries. The ideogram for China is “Middle Kingdom”, meaning the central and most important kingdom in the world. The Chinese in this regard are certainly no less chauvinistic than any other peoples of the world. This chauvinism still holds today. Take a look at what the Han are saying about the rest of the world amongst themselves when they think we aren’t paying attention. Most, hrm, amusing, to put it lightly.
Pardon me for brevity and making broadbrush statements about a complex history, but:
“Barring some territorial disputes along its borders, it has not sought distant colonies to loot, plunder and enslave. It has never had imperial colonial ambitions. ”
that’s pretty broad brush too!
The Chinese Empire was, and in its current incarnation as the PRC is, a huge empire in its own right, bigger than most others that have ever existed, far bigger than the Roman Empire. China has had at least its fair share of bloody wars, the extent of its Empire was established by war and the conquest of others. The Taiping Rebellion of the mid-1800’s was probably the bloodiest war in history before WW2. Over the centuries, often relatively unstable and difficult to govern, it has been regularly riven by civil wars, rebellions, corruption, etc.
Its lack of overseas expansion is far more due to the fact that any such would have been over-extension rather than any lack of imperial ambition or lust for territory. Never sought to loot, plunder and enslave? What else was the tribute they demanded from neighbouring states like Korea under threat of war and invasion?. They were an Empire after all, that doesn’t happen or be maintained without imperial ambition!
To the South, they occupied Northern Vietnam for centuries.
West of Vietnam, Chinese expansion was made exceptionally difficult/impossible by mountains all the way from Laos to Afghanistan.
To the North, both Mongolia and Manchuria became part of the Empire because they in turn conquered China. The Manchus assimilated, Manchuria is now part of China. The Mongols did not, their allegiance was personal to the Emperor, when the Empire dissolved, they separated.
Further North was too cold and worthless.
East was the sea, but they took no interest in Formosa until the Dutch moved in.
Tibet was de-facto independent from 1912.
Neither Chinese revolution brought liberation to Tibet. The Chinese invasion was an act of imperialism, a denial of the Tibetan peoples right to self determination in the wake of the dissolution of the Chinese Empire.
I am Irish (native, indigenous, Ireland born). My country was subjected to English imperialism and colonialism (they are not synonyms) like no other. I despise imperialism and colonialism. And I will not excuse or be an apologist for a non-Western country’s somewhat different brand of imperialism. It may look or smell a bit different, but it’s still shite!
Though perhaps, as you appear to suggest, if China through domination of Tibet for centuries has acquired an eternal right to dominate Tibet and therefore its invasion was justified and righteous, then do you think England should equally have an eternal right to dominate Ireland since it dominated Ireland for a comparable period?
Pardon me if I disagree.
All valid points although…ALL large countries have assembled themselves by some form of colonialism and subjugation/integration of rival peoples at some period(s) in their history.
Name one large country that hasn’t. That’s not the issue. The issue is how the country in question has performed since its consolidation and if the positive has outweighed the negative along an entire line of measures that are mostly subjective, for internal determination above all and constantly open to exploitation by rival powers. The UN sought to formalize those measures but has by now, failed miserably. Why it’s failed, I think you can guess but that’s a thought for another day.
I have been reading Larry’s blog for a while and refrained from making any comments but your tone and ignorance is contemptuous. I cite an example whereby you said in your reply to Oddo, “Do you know anything of history?” It seems you do not know much yourself.
You said Tibet was invaded by China in the 11th or 12 centuries (presumably A.D.). First of all, what did one mean by China? Ethnic Han Chinese or what? Tibet was conquered by the Mongols in or around 1240 A.D. (Allsen, T.T., Culture and Conquest in Mongol Eurasia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001). Around 30 years or so thereafter it was incorporated into the Yuan Dynasty by Kublai Khan (I assume you know who he was). The next 2 dynasties after Yuan were Ming and Qing. The Ming was an ethnically Han Chinese dynasty and the Qing were Manchurians that used Tibetan script in writing. Vjarayana Buddhism was the official court religion of the Qing. The less educated would refer Vjarayana as Tibetan Buddhism.
The above facts amply demonstrate your ridiculous assertion that “It (China) invaded and occupied Tibet in the 11th or 12th century.” goes beyond one’s wildest imaginations and is downright ignorant.
Qing dynasty was overthrown in 1911 and The Republic of China came into existence in 1912. The Constitution of the Republic of China remains the Constitution of the region/island known as Taiwan and it is still in force today. There are several pertinent articles :
Article 4
The territory of the Republic of China according to its existing national boundaries shall not be altered except by resolution of the National Assembly.
Article 26
The National Assembly shall be composed of the following delegates:
3. The number of delegates to be elected from Tibet shall be prescribed by law;
There are 4 more express references to Tibet in the Constitution of 1912. For all intents and purposes, Dr Sun Yat Sen and the legislature considered the territories of the Qing to be a part of Republic of China.
Since the 18th century, the Qing government had representatives in Lhasa known as Ambans. They were the symbol of Qing authority over Tibet. The last Amban was expelled in 1912 after the Qing dynasty fell in 1911. On 31 January 1950, Lhasa radio announced that Tibet had been independent since 1912 and rejected it as being a part of China. Between 1949 and 1950, the Kashag (ruling body of Tibet comprising of aristocrats and high monks) tried desperately to get Tibet recognised as a nation state and admitted into the UN. They tried to garner support from the USA and the UK in vain.
Your bald assertion that, “With the dissolution of the Xing Empire in 1912 or so, Tibet declared independence.” is blatantly misconceived and incorrect. It was only formally declared in 1950 and they back dated it. In fact, no nation between 1912 and 1950 recognised Tibet as a sovereign nation.
What Oddo was alluding to in his post was Western colonialism and attempting in any way to equate Western colonialism with the above facts and assert all the ridiculous codswallop in your post is ignorant and agendum driven.
I have gone on long enough already and it is time for my afternoon nap. I would need another few pages to educate you on Vietnam and its history.
I may have been uncharitable and discourteous but I make no apologies when you insult someone else sharing his thoughts in a civilised manner with you behaving like a self-indulgent narcisstic child.
Well said. Americans once again brain washed by the cia into thinking the peaceful elite in Tibet were taken over by the Han Chinese. Well I grew up thinking Texans had taken over my state, I think Californians are currently taking over mine. Unfortunately my state has not been offered high speed rail! Or affordable healthcare! My states roads and bridges are a mess while both Tibet and Kashgar are experiencing amazing modernization.
Americans want Tibet to continue in its ancient ways cause they somehow think that was wonderful. When I was in Kashgar in the 1980 it was a poor dust bitten town, now it his an amazing town with it’s own wonderful culture.
If I may correct you, the Mongol emperors of China held Tibet as a vassal state for about a century (13th-14th Centuries) before they were overthrown by the Chinese people; they held Tibetans in high regard for religious reasons. The Manchu emperors of China held Tibet as a vassal state even more loosely than the Mongol emperors had, beginning at the end of the 17th Century until they were overthrown in 1912, and like the Mongols they held Tibetans in high regard for religious reasons. Note that Han Chinese consider the Mongol and Manchu emperors to be foreign oppressors, because ***drumroll*** they were.
Other than that you are correct. It is completely ironic that PRC uses Mongol and Manchu imperialism, under which the Chinese people suffered the most, to justify its occupation of Tibet. The average manufactured claim in Crusader Kings II is stronger than the PRC’s claim on Tibet. (Sorry for the obscure reference.) Again, you are correct to call what PRC is doing colonialism. The Mongols and Manchus did not establish colonies in Tibet, but PRC has resettled millions of Han Chinese into Tibet (and Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, as you note).
What PRC is doing in Tibet is playing hydraulic empire. 7 major rivers have their headwaters on the Tibetan plateau. For anyone who doesn’t understand, ask Vietnam what it thinks about Chinese dams on the upper Mekong, find out how many PRC has built.
Only recently have serious people realized that controlling territory where people don’t like you is one of the dumbest things you can do.
Controlling it as colony is one thing (evil, but logical – just abuse and resource plunder), but actually occupying and making it your territory is a terrible mistake that I don’t think serious countries tend to do that anymore.
So yes, at some point in history CHN was expansionist, and most of the people they occupied have more or less assimilated (there were I believe 7 CHN kingdoms before Chin conquered them and unified the country)
However, in any more or less recent history, CHN did not focus on conquering but on trade, and their trademark move was to assimilate conquers which they did on multiple occasions.
The reason why most countries won’t let parts of it split away are not because they really like having constant rebellions on their soil, but because they know that such methods and territories could easily be used to opposing powers against them, so as a rule, no country will willingly allow its parts to be taken away, even if those parts are problematic. (just take a look at what happened to RU empire, and how many of those “split” countries are actually their enemies now…)
Tibet and Mongolia became incorporated into China when they conquered it and the descendents of Ghengis established a dynasty over the whole. They may not like it and may wish for independence, which I have some sympathy for, but China retains claims to both as a consequence of their historical actions.
Expat:
Did China colonize Europe, Latin America and Africa? Or were they a “local empire” (most countries are at war with neighboring countries at some point in their existence). Contrast that to UK, Spain, Portugal and USA in modern times.
Don’t forget the Netherlands! We controlled the Spice Islands for 3 1/2 centuries!
As per usual,blame the victims.
You said, “Chechens are Muslim yet they are the most fervent Russians.” There are over 100 distinct languages in Russia, corresponding to all the different “peoples”. But … they are all “Russian”. Russia has the benefit of all of these “peoples” becoming Russian through history, and it is a very powerful unifying factor.
A huge problem we have in North America and Europe is that “peoples” immigrate to our countries but never become “Canadian”, “Swedish”, or whatever. They retain their identity and culture and language from whence they came. There never is real integration, and all the woke liberals say “we have to respect their culture”. I say be damned – if you want to emigrate to Germany, then you will become German and respect your new country. You can still keep some of your traditions but learn the language and become a meaningful and contributing part of your new country.
In the West, we use the same word “Russian” for both ethnic Russians (русский – russkiy) and for citizens of Russia (россиянин – rossiyanin) which is confusing and doesn’t help us understand Russian society.
A Chechen, for example, is a rossiyanin but not russkiy.
I agree with you – but in case of democidal shithole that is Canada – I have some first hand experience in seeing how new immigrants react when they first move to Canada.
From some reason (probably Pedowood and its misrepresentation of all western countries), they expect a strong, proud, dynamic culture. …LOL
then they see all the pale, sick, obese, suicidal (there is on average 50 overdoses just in Toronto every day and 11 other forms of suicide like jumping under trains etc, widespread embrace of toxic jabs, double masking etc), confused, transgendered… pierced, covered in ugly tattoos, green-haired…and mentally and culturally sick in so many other ways…
These new immigrants are initially very confused, then angry because they feel tricked (to sell all their things in say India where they had a reasonably comfortable lives – as several of my Indian friends who regretted ever moving to Canada told me).
Then they start seeking their other equally disillusioned fellow Indians etc… and they realize their culture has always been superior to Canadian ‘cultural’ democidal and suicidal woke/tranny vacuum/mental sickness…
That’s why all foreigners decide to focus on their original culture instead of the suicidal (on many levels) vacuum masqueraded as a culture they see around them.
I can tell you Serbia is full of educated people who were tricked into moving to Canada after NATO bombed us – only to GTFO there asap. I meet them here often and we laugh about Canadian ‘culture’ and ‘values’… happy to be far away from that democidal MORDOR of a country…
Russians and Chinese know this too – hence their position towards western ‘superiority’ which like American dream happens only when in deep sleep…
mathematicians, composers, writers, scientists etc. etc. Look around and what has the USA given the world?
That’s a stretch. No shortage of the former from the US.
As far as a natural synergy between Russia and China in economic terms, that’s spot on – and destined to continue and pos. naturally evolve to a military synergy as well, since the iron curtain has now firmly risen with the US and EU. But Chinese-Russian synergy is exactly what the US strove to avoid, so it’s again the old and broken story of manufacturing an enemy for a perceived gain, then uniting to defeat it without considering or grossly miscalculating the consequences.
I have no idea how this will all end. I think it’s been said that empires in fear of losing influence become empires to fear. All I know is we are now firmly in the grip of a very bizarre world that cannot sustain itself in the current form for very much longer.
I suspect the answer lies somewhere in chaos theory. Unfortunately I’m not smart enough to extract it.
Excellent comment.
I also think a formal alliance will not be announced. The Russians and Chinese have a shared vision of multi-polarity with international law governing relations between states. I think they are too subtle and nuanced to announce a formal military alliance. Rather, they will cooperate along the full spectrum including militarily to make sure they are not picked off one at a time by Uncle Hegemon.
Well said Elial,Russia and China have had an unspoken mutual defense pact for years.How many times have we heard China complain about Russia?Russia complain about China?
Very articulate. I completely agree.
So many here apparently believe that the kgb and Mao never existed and only worked to “liberate” (enslave) Africa, South America, America (the main adversary) etc. There’s zero recognition by commenter here that since 1919 the leftist 5th column inside us was assisting kgb/gru in “liberating” the US workers. Most commenting here would think Solzhenitsyn a US stooge and the gulags never existed if they ever bothered to read the 2700 pages of gulag archipelago. Same goes for mitrokhin archives.
Are CCP not running fentanyl into us through Mexican cartels to ensure more brain dead green haired tattooed drug addled idiots will be voting majority for remaining days of US before capitulation to China by US leftists? Same with KGB in South America in 1960s 70s 80s.
US corrupt elites are now protecting themselves from the raw sewerage of a society they created in the past 50 years just like in soviet Russia & CCP: there is always a protected elite.
The US has gone down an atheistic leftist suicidal war mongering depopulation at all costs path especially since inauguration day 1989. Most influential US elites of the first half of the 20th century were in favor of eugenics to cull the herd in their evil minds. Many poison ivy leaguers in cia retired and went to work for depopulation, gun control, abortion non profits. Larry clearly was not one of these mkultra types. Liberal interventionism and its bastard step brother neo conservatism are a result of Wilsonian racist chapter of the progressive era. Today’s warmongering goons such as Kagan, Nuland, and most in leftist run state department have direct philosophical lineage to all of the above 20th century elitist thinking. Why do you think US is becoming a totalitarian state with political officers in every level of govt, every work place and every organization just like soviets?
Anyone thinking Russia and China are Innocent rape victims of history may want to read gulag and mitrokhin to see what’s in the wests future. How do you think the youth of South Korea and Taiwan came to the conclusion that life would better if they joined the prison camp of North Korea or China? Organically on their own??
There are zero heros and only villains in this ukraine mess.
Exactly. There are a number of commenters here that simply passionately hate the United States and, as a reaction, whitewash and glorify those countries that have long opposed the USA. It’s like they can’t do nuance or hold anything more but the most simplistic childish reasoning in their heads, e.g. 100% good guy/100% bad guy. I think at least a couple of them are actual foreign agents seeking to pile on and demoralize Americans. They think that if we are criticizing the faults with our country, then we must hate it through and through, like they do, and that we’re open to falling in love with the Chinese Communist Party and would enjoy some fried bat wing for lunch.
Americans don’t like China for several reasons – one of which is that Americans have a tradition of individual freedom and expression and the Chinese appear to be a bunch of hyper-conformists living like ants in a colony.
Eric, this is not a nice thing to say and is a serious accusation to make. I cannot speak for others who post here since I don’t know them but I can tell you I am not a foreign agent, just a guy who has an opinion about things. My opinions can be right or wrong and you can feel free to point that out, which you have in the past anyway :-). I enjoy debating things with you but I would never accuse you being this or that.
China has its sins, so does Russia. The difference, however, is that they don’t go around trying to pretend they are better than the rest or superior to them. I think this is what some people find unpalatable about this aspect of the western world. Rules apply to some but not others etc.
Also, it would be nice to actually see tax payers’ contributions spent on the population here in the States. It is tiresome to watch the fact that there is always money for 800+ military bases and proxy wars but no money for roads, bridges, healthcare, college, no help in anything really anymore. For once it would be nice to stop focusing on what others are doing and how they are living and start focusing on what we are doing and how we are living. If that makes a person a “foreign agent”, well, don’t know what to say.
As for your opinion of the Chinese as “bunch of hyper-conformists living like ants in a colony” – offense aside (I am not Chinese so I don’t care), that may very well be true but that’s them. They may view us as something they don’t like. What ever happened to “live and let live”? It’s not like you are forcefully going to “individualize” 1.4 billion people.
Have a good day.
Not you. I often find myself agreeing with you and when I don’t, hey, everyone has an opinion.
That said, it is merely your sensitivities that America is too boastful. Also, I think the moral equivalence you’re creating between the “sins” of Russia and China and those of the US is rubbish. Yes, at the moment the US is the worse actor, but, historically, the US has been the morally superior actor, by far. Furthermore, I do not believe that Russia and China are immune from imperial hubris. I’ll ask again, what is Wagner doing in Africa? What are the Chinese doing there? Both are in the MENA, etc.
The Russians and Chinese are not our friends. They are going to do what is best for them, even at the US’ expense. In fact, as I have said several times and as was noted above by another commenter, a lot of the bad ideas destroying America today were introduced by the KGB and CCP. Only a fool would put their trust in these countries.
You don’t like what the US has become. I don’t either. It’s our job to fix it – assuming you’re American.
Americans don’t like China for several reasons – one of which is that Americans have a tradition of individual freedom and expression and the Chinese appear to be a bunch of hyper-conformists living like ants in a colony.
Yet after finally getting over the ‘existential threat to our economy’ we wrote volumes about in the ’80’s, we now seem to be getting along with Japan just fine.
I think at least a couple of them are actual foreign agents seeking to pile on and demoralize Americans.
Could well be, or at least ‘junior wannabe foreign agents’ but let’s not ignore the other side of the coin of well-organized agents (mostly DNC supporters) posing as supporters of Russian policies whose comments are well-peppered with vulgar racist, imperialist overtones, in attempts to 1) feign solidarity with their American analogs for the purpose of denigrating the American analog (i.e. ‘the deplorables’) and creating fictional alliances and 2) amplify a minority into a majority to be feared.
I would have thought that the antics of Integrity Initiative and its numerous analogs created for just that purpose would have raised your antenna a bit more and understood that the West, certainly not the Russians, are the actual masters at that game.
Chinese may “appear” to be hyper-conformists, but a better interpretation is they have more of a common culture, developed over millennia. They have evolved a culture that is largely peaceful despite a high population density. I’ve been to China, you can walk around anywhere any time of day or night and feel safe.
Surprisingly, ordinary Chinese are very conservative. Imagine a culture that believes you shouldn’t have sex until you marry. Altercations between police and citizens are interesting, sometimes involving shoving matches, but generally resolved peacefully with some general consensus among those present. Things are tighter in Beijing, bur get out and around the country it’s a lot different. Most people are benefiting economically, as the government has lifted over 200 million out of poverty in the time America has put 40 million more in poverty.
People still talk among themselves there, though online activities are monitored. Those feeling the heat the most are, ironically the academics and upper-middle class folks. Rights are restricted, and social credit scoring is real and can be oppressive. It’s not perfect to be sure. The primary focus is on lifting those at the bottom, for a couple of reasons. First, that’s where most of the people are, and you can’t have the majority starving and restless. Second, perhaps more importantly, this is where the soldiers come from. They tend to be poorer and rural, so they are aware of conditions at home. China looks after the class of people that inhabits the military. Practical and pragmatic.
In grad school my office partner was from China. His take on Tiananmin Square was interesting. While news here was how terrible it was, he commented that in Mao’s time, thousands would have been killed immediately, and how the response was muted sowing progress in rights. Things evolve slowly there because you can’t make rapid changes with a billion and a half people because you can’t risk things spiraling out of control.
Totally different culture and history, and world view there. We must be careful not to project and compare based on our system. Our culture is generally more violent and morally suspect in their eyes.
//what is Wagner doing in Africa?//
They’re helping African countries get rid of terrorist groups.
//historically, the US has been the morally superior actor, by far//
Oh give us a break. Your country was founded on the blood of native American tribes. Afterwards you enslaved and killed over a million African people.
Let’s not talk about the numerous war crimes committed by the US during and after WW2.
You seem to have forgotten the simple fact that the Russian Federation isn’t the USSR.
Besides, solzhenitsyn’s exaggerated claims were debunked by Prof. Grover Furr who studied Soviet archives and published well-researched books about Stalin’s administration.
Well said.
In fairness the US has given the world a great deal, as has my country (UK).
That is not the problem. The problem is a failure to understand that we are now living in a new world, and that we need to adjust to it and work with other nations as equals, rather than try to dominate with such nonsense as “the rules based system”, which attempts to maintain a long dead imperial order.
We don’t need to over self-flagellate for past sins or denigrate our many achievements. We can continue to co-exist in the emerging world.
You say USA/UK need to learn how to live with the world. That sounds cozy but I think people do not realize that learning to live with the world means stop exploiting the world and that means a demise of the western cozy lifestyle powered by slaves elsewhere. THIS is what this war is about!
Other than that, the “collective west” enslaved most of the world in one way or another for the last 500 years. It also sucked the marrow out of the planet (resource and climate wise) and sold the unscaleable idea of living the same kind of lifestyle to the rest of the world (by force in some instances?). Most countries/peoples are/were happy to be left alone to be “backwards” but cannot be left alone to this day (so, no cigar on western self flagellation?) and are forced to compete on a playing field that is far from level (which means debt, meddling, constant coups etc.). For example, a place like Latin America or Africa would still be “untouched” if they were left to their own devices (and so would the American Indian in USA/Canada) but the Europeans had to conquer, rape, pillage etc. When they were done with the “new territories”, they turned on the rest of the world. Imagine being a country today who just wants to be left alone (which is in essence, what Russia wants, for example). The UK/USA/EU will simply not do it.
It has to do with the attitude of ownership/superiority, in my humble opinion, but also with resources. After the western Europeans destroyed most of their resource base in Western Europe, they turned to Eastern Europe, for example. Romania, Bulgaria etc. are all accepted into EU for two reasons – cheap land/natural resources in abundance + cheap educated and uneducated labor. (Clue in Gardener Josep Borell here?) The problem, IMHO, is the western civilization itself combined with capitalism and individualism. The rest of the world is different from the West – some are tribal, some are cohesive (Russia, China…). I mean, ask yourself, who drew borders all over Africa, Asia, Middle East and Latin America? It wasn’t the Russians and it wasn’t the Chinese. Did the people in Somalia or Kenya or Honduras actually have a concept of a country and borders and political system and, gasp, president, prime minister, parliament? Or did the British, Germans, French etc. basically sit down and draw borders out of their ass? In their pomposity, they didn’t care and still don’t. I mean, Africa, Asia, even Balkans is full of missionaries coming from the States to spread the “word”. NGOs? Ditto. UK/US/EU ambassadors giving lectures to the local peasants? Ditto.
At the end, the way I see it – America gave the world environmental destruction, racial inequality, military bases and subjugation, McDonalds, corn syrup, marketing industry (yikes), just-in-time supply system (oops), the only recorded use of nuclear weapons on unarmed population, chemicals in your food and diabetes (there is more but this will do). I cannot think of what the high and mighty Brits gave the world, well, Shakespeare, I guess (?) if you can understand what he is rambling about (to the tune of having to develop a whole education industry built around explaining his works) and what else? The steam locomotive? At this point, I would rather they didn’t.
China and Russia were being hideously oppressed by their elites during the west’s colonial periods and were in no position to redraw borders.
Genuine question here. Do you believe the east west philosophically different views on the legal prominence of the individual VS the prominence of the collective precludes a discussion on whether raising standard of living worldwide would bring a stable or sustainable population level?
It seems to me that if the latest demographic theory is to deny some basic improvements in life under the guise of conserving resources to some people but not deny to others we’re taking a further step towards darkness.
I believe in live and let live (even though I was not born in USA). I was born in Yugoslavia and we never published yearly “state of human rights in country so and so” because we did not meddle. We only helped when asked. I think if a tribe lives in the Amazon without any “basic necessities” – that is their right and their prerogative and we have no right to give them these necessities, esp. not by force. This works from tribe to country, on any scale. Africa, Latin America, north America etc. would have looked totally different today were it not for the Europeans and nobody can prove that any of these places are better off now that if they were left alone. If you cannot prove an outcome, don’t experiment – these are real people we are talking about and they should decide what they want.
US needs an Enemy.
Blacks and Jews are now off-limits so it has to be the people you brought as Coolies to build your railroads………..
US population needs to focus “Hate” against “Foreigners” – it always has been easy to rouse and whether it lynches or sticks in internment camps – it is the same mentality.
Americans are guiltless and unblemished without sin but the Auslaender is guilty – it is the German cultural basis of US society which is more more teutonic than Anglo-Saxon
You’re not wrong, but the true enemy is the British ruling class, always has been.
What has the USA given the world?
The founders of America, fallible human beings that they were, that we all are, gave the world the Declaration of Independence that announced that every individual is born to be free and to be the political equal of every other person, and that government was instituted among men to ensure that that sovereignty was respected, most especially by the government which has always been the most persistent and dangerous violator of the right of all people to control their own lives and go about their business in peace.
In the long run we have failed to live up to that moral imperative.
As a nation we have spat upon the notion that individual freedom
is the foundation of a free society.
This is how far the insanity of the American neocons has brought us – that I’m forced to side with the People’s Republic of China as a defender of national sovereignty.
Off topic but another large explosion. It seems intuitively obvious the even the most casual observer that the US is under attack.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/explosion-rocks-ohio-metal-plant-sending-large-plume-black-smoke-sky
That’s one interpretation. The other is that these events are not all that uncommon but are now amplified in the media or even by your own perceptions to give the appearance that they are something extraordinary.
Can you say which it is? I can’t.
I hate to break to all the yutes here but there was news before the internet. The number and frequency of events is above average. If this was actual economic sabotage would there be a better target list? If the US leftists can pull off the most intricate international subterfuge to advance war profits and further depopulation then these sabotage actions are relative simplicity for whoever is responsible. We have to have some logic here to sort out this mess.
IMO, it is cheap labor from the third world predictably screwing up and causing fires and explosion as a result.
No. These plants except maybe the chicken processing places do not generally use unqualified people in critical jobs.
The lunkheads might be hand stacking pallets, but they are not opening and closing important valves.
One interpretation but we have had what, 2 million single military aged men enter the country, if 1% were on mission then we have a real problem. They are finding Chinese guys, ISIS guys but how many do they miss?
All relatively soft targets of opportunity, The Death of a Thousand Cuts, cannot be logically ruled out here.
Think about it, they come over, have limited resources, can’t pull off anything big, easy to derail a train, the RR will provide the derail device!
A few shots into an electrical substation here and there, a few gasoline bombs in food facilities.
Everything in our society it at margin. It would take less than you think to cause great damage.
Actually, I think the whole thing is another stupid paranoid conspiracy theory right up there with 9/11 “trutherism” (even Scott Ritter says the “official narrative” is accurate). I don’t see any evidence that fires/explosions are more common than previously. The focus on them has increased, but that’s it.
I disagree also about who works in these plants. They employ a lot of illegal aliens and other linguistically/educationally compromised workers. It’s a big problem for safety and general risk. Btw – I work as an actuary in the insurance industry (second career – have been at it for the past 20 years) and I receive and read industry publications. There have been articles covering this and related subjects. It’s all data driven risk and financial analysis.
No sir.
I work these plants.
I won’t do a credential war with you but I’ve been chief corporate safety officer for a Fortune 50 company in charge of 12 plants.
I’m a certified RR worker for my work on movesble bridges. I’ve worked in everything from foundries to auto plants to paper mills.
This shit doesn’t happen like this.
Now I am willing to consider possible secondary effects from the vaxx, the so-called vaccidents, but we are in double digit sigma territory here. Its not focus, the media might focus on the big ones but they miss or ignore the vast majority of them.
Way more are happening than is being reported on, many plants have highly skilled people who can respond to a severed air line on a critical valve or something along those lines. Most safety equipment is fail safe against many possible equipment failures.
But there are plants out there that use a certain chemical that is normally stable but puts out cyanide when burned. Some are one valve in the wrong position and road flare away from a mass casualty event.
Denial is poor strategy.
Alex,
I work in a Fortune 100 company on healthcare insurance, in the data, looking at diagnoses, procedures, hospitals, demographics, etc that are driving cost trends (in fact I manage a whole team dedicated to risk analysis). I saw no unexpected increase in deaths during the Covid years in the under 65 years old commercially insured population and I see none now (like no surge in mortality due the vax). Had either of those events happened, I’d be one of the first to know and I’d know straight from the raw data. Btw – Neither my wife nor got the jab and we never will. I don’t believe in being a guinea pig for a virus that won’t do more than make me sick for a week, like a flue. However, the whole vax death wave conspiracy theory is rubbish, though, in fairness, the virus scare really does look like a conspiracy – at least an originally organically evolving conspiracy by bureaucratic group think that grew into a monster when it was realized that it could be used to get rid of Trump and gain control of citizens.
I thought you were a machinist, but you work in food processing plants too? How long ago? Perhaps the work force demographics in the plants has changed since then? Perhaps the plants you worked in are not the same ones having fires. I can point to plenty of old articles – several years old – about food processing plants burning down as well as other types of plants exploding, etc. We’ve been under attack from these sneaky terrorists for years?
I’m not a machinist. I own an engineering firm that provides services, design and implementation of controls and automation. We also build machines, everything from process control skids to packaging machines as well as controls and machine upgrades.
I hire and work with engineers of every discipline, mechanics, machinists, welders, electricians, programmers and skilled labor of every sort.
We specialize in PLC based controls mainly but not limited to it.
Its a very cross disciplinary endeavor.
I’m a degreed nuclear engineer but work nearly every business but that for some odd reason.
I’ve help build everything from oil pumping stations to RR draw bridges to breweries to automobile production support.
We also do a lot of safety analysis and I can tell you that this shit ain’t normal. Another explosion in Miami today.
Calling something a conspiracy theory is merely an empty substitute for an actual argument.
I wouldn’t presume to second guess your life insurance actuary tables but this spate of fires, explosions and derailments are not normal.
Yes companies employ non-skilled labor but none will put an untrained unqualified lunkhead on a 3 stream chemical mixing and metering console.
A bridge tender on a moveable RR bridge only has to press a button on a touch screen to move a bridge, a chimpanzee could be trained to do that, but a qualified tender is required to have years of training and experience on the operation of the bridge before he.is allowed to push that button. RR workers of every sort must be certified annually. Pablo the Westback will never be assigned those jobs.
Eric
It is unscientific I suppose but I have one client that had do many people drop after the job they basically shut down an entire division.
This was the same client that told me I had to get the jab as well as every team member even if they don’t come in the plant.
I responded by informing them we will pull our services and refund any unused payments.
They had so many employees quit or retire over that entire sections of the plant had to be shutdown. ( they make aircraft parts)
The requirement was dropped 2 days before the deadline.
Out of 140 employees, 9 died within 2 weeks of the jab. 3 more since December 2022, and several out for extended periods.
Sorry Eric, everyone seems to be seeing this except you. I’ve lost friends and neighbors, my cousin retired from his pilots job at American Airlines over the jab and he tells me a lot of his former colleagues have died or had to retire on disability.
As far as chicken plants, yes any facility that uses a boiler can have a fire. They happen. They were rare. Not too rare now.
The demographics are irrelevant, the untrained labor processes the chickens ( believe me these plants are nasty)
The boiler operator is trained, experienced and certified. They don’t put some random minimum wage schlep in the powerhouse.
Hi Alex
could these industrial incidents be caused by a reduction in scheduled maintenance and lax safety measures?
I ask because a long time ago I worked on maintenance in a production plant, where the machines worked 24/7, with 3 weeks a year for regular services (changing rolling bearings, seals, belts; cleaning the hydraulic oil tanks, changing the oil in the reducers, testing the compressors, automatics, sensors, etc.).
That’s how we worked for years, until the superiors concluded that it was too expensive and unnecessary, and that prevention should be discarded and a real failure should be waited for before intervention. We politely explained why it was stupid, but they still persisted.
Well, the plant worked smoothly for about 6 months, and then all hell broke loose. Failure after failure, from small defects in accuracy, through real damage to vital subsystems, to the complete shutdown of the entire production line…
Suffice to say it took us 5 weeks to get this line up and running again and months to get it working properly. We told the boss that we had warned them in advance and that we didn’t care how much this was going to cost. The price is his problem.
The superiors did not learn much from this. They just continued to reduce the number of employees for maintenance and planned works. Of course, I soon left for the first greener pasture I could find.
Larry, not to discount the possibility of such an alliance occurring, but I think it would be diplomatically odd for Putin to announce or imply it in the absence of Xi. That would mean Chinese hearing about the alliance not from their own leader but from the Russian leader.
I’d expect any such alliance to be announced at a meeting of the two leaders.
Agreed. I meant to suggest that Putin will signal that’s where they are headed. He could announce the date of a meeting with Xi to consummate the deal for example.
Larry, you’re such a rogue. Gotta love ya.
Indeed that could happen. I suspect the Chinese will still fence sit for a while, to keep the exports flowing our way. Although they could think to call our bluff on that, since cutting off Chinese exports would sink us faster than it would them. So, maybe it’s a 50/50 call. Guess we might get a hint today. Eyes peeled.
He could make such an announcement, but there is, I think, low probability of that as such negotiations tend to be very secretive and no announcements are made until a deal is agreed upon – otherwise, there is a loss of face if things don’t turn out.
Victor, you are on the right track.Imagine two nations negotiating and agreeing to something with a handshake and their solemn word.Compare that to western diplomacy and meaningless paper agreements.It always comes down to Trust!
One thing consistently missed by all commentators is the 10 to 1 difference in the population size between China and Russia.
Relatively speaking, Russia is a pipsqueak compared to China. In fact, the population size comparison is almost exactly the same situation as exists between USA and Canada. And how many Americans spend any time whatsoever wondering about that amorphous blob, to their eyes, to the North? When I do read individual American opinion on Canada, it’s fatuously uninformed. I should well imagine a similar situation existing in an everyday Chinese person’s opinion regarding Russia. To them Russia is semi-irrelevant.
If Canada got itself into a jam with a foreign country and looked about for allies, could it count on untrammelled US support? Of course not. Legions of Beltway analysts would go to work to see what advantages the USA could gather for itself if it supported Canada. And if the answer was, meh, not much, Canada would be left holding its own bag
My perception is that China views the Russians similarly, and is quite reluctant to commit itself fully militarily and economically on behalf of a country only a tenth its size. There are about the same number of Russians as there are Japanese. China treats Japan derisively.
So the Russians have to work extra hard to get Chinese approval much beyond a mere head nod that they at least won’t stab them in the back when the chips are down. China has bigger fish to fry than worrying about what Russia is up to.
Remember, most all the commentary here to Mr Johnson’s point-of-view is from Americans who are influenced, whether they realize it or not, by the fact they’ve been living in the world’s #1 richest and most powerful nation for quite some time. And like all such countries, a certain high degree of overt navel-gazing is prominent that clouds both judgment and even interest in any other country’s mores, customs and history. Other countries exist merely to be exploited by the might-is-right dictum. By comparison, Russia with only 145 million inhabitants is in the middle ground of size and very naturally quite paranoid that others seek to take nefarious advantage of them and their sovereign resources. The major difference from Canada that gets Russia proportionately more attention from the real big boys like USA, China and India is their obvious strength in arms and willingness to use them to defend against economic pirates who want to conquer them and steal their loot.
To a Blinken or similar neocon, it’s simply beyond their limited imagination to understand how some economic apparent runt of a country like Russia can poke its fingers in the US’s eye and tell them to phuck off. Hence the propagandic response and vilification of Putin. Why can’t the silly bugger just shut up and go away? The US is unable to imagine itself in a similar existential crisis for survival because its history has provided no lessons. So the BS continues apace.
It’s all likely to end in quite a big bang. Because the Russians are deadly serious and official USA just brushes them and their security concerns off. Very bad idea.
I hate to break to all the yutes here but there was news before the internet. The number and frequency of events is above average. If this was actual economic sabotage would there be a better target list? If the US leftists can pull off the most intricate international subterfuge to advance war profits and further depopulation then these sabotage actions are relative simplicity for whoever is responsible. We have to have some logic here to sort out this mess.
China space launches
https://spacenews.com/china-plans-more-than-50-space-launches-in-2022/
China oil import needs
https://spacenews.com/china-plans-more-than-50-space-launches-in-2022/
The Communist party has to stay ahead of the needs of the country. If not… the billions will hang them. Simple.
China hasn’t been hit by the US dollar inflation…mostly because they hold so many T Bills. Yuan Dollar exchange rates have been pretty stable.
https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-CNY-exchange-rate-history.html
So…who has the oil, rare earths…. uranium…. gold… who has all that..and is friendly?
Border disputes between RU CN are minor…. basically… when the USSR fell… bandit CN loggers extracted from RU ground…pretty small time on the big picture.
Russia has what China needs… and Russia will do business…reasonable terms.
PS… kind of like the Jews rattling swords against RU for the US military support….while all the off shore Israel natural gas is developed and being pumped by…. Gazprom.
The US government ought to be careful with throwing out bellicose statements like XXX is our enemy (for what? Just to appear tough?) because the other party will be forced to react to open animosity. The end effect is that such stupid statements will simply become self-fulfilling prophecies because there is no other choice but to prepare to defend oneself.
edit link 2: https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/USD-CNY-exchange-rate-history.html
I am a moron…and I can’t do anything correctly!!!
15% volatility is nothing special over 5 years. Look at the EUR/USD or CAD/USD volatility over same period. Granted, the Yuan’s a bit more ‘state managed’ than the Euro or Cad but if you really want to see a state managed currency, look at the Hryvnia/USD rate over time, flat as a pancake, then sudden readjustments – and we all know who manages it. It sure ain’t Ukraine.
It’s a done deal. The big question; how long before Germany joins with Russia and China?
Not long after they send the greens to the showers.
Alex – you mean the Germans will turn Baerbockian 360 degrees? 🙂
Personally, I think that hyperperiod of EU immigration to one and all has resulted in an unknown number of whirling dervishes landing in Germany and dizzying turning rates of 36000 degrees and more. Enough to turn anyone’s stomach. Would explain their constant political vertigo and inability to walk or talk a straight line as well.
no ; only 180° …
If ever quite far in the future – media (read propaganda) funds will be plenty far into any sever crisis/collapse.
I’m not sure what will transpire speech-wise in a few hours – I’ll certainly be watching with my rudimentary Russian fluency – but I’d wager on a tripartite defense pact (among the Russian Federation, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the People’s Republic of China) gaining in form and substance this year. Three long-standing civilizations, of many nations, religions, and cultures, all united against a hostile, megalomaniacal entity that cannot seem to mind its own business. I feel sick writing that, knowing that I live in the very belly of the demonic beast.
Personally, I doubt this, though I could be wrong. But, when it comes to China-Russia relations, India is the elephant in the room. So far, India has played down the middle, when it comes to West-East balancing. It is still vulnerable to Western hostility, and although it has been playing it right during this conflict, the Russians need to keep India on the train. As India and China have a rather difficult relationship, a military alliance between China and Russia would play very badly to the Indian establishment, which would feel betrayed. The Indian NSA had visited Patrushev and Putin last week, so maybe something else is cooking…NSAs don’t get to meet Presidents normally.
I agree. The whole eastern economic alternative requires India, and, as you say, it’s difficult if China and Russia formalize a defense relationship without pushing India towards the west. Keep it loose, and pick away at NATO and the US until they can’t debt finance a big military anymore.
It’s not like making out in the back seat, more like two neighbors sitting on the tailgate having a few beer, discussing how to get rid of varmints.
Hahaha ! Nicely put. I think also think the direction will be towards a non-alignment movement of nations as Nehru and Chou Enlai envisioned in the 1950’s once the conniving, alliance-forming “vermin” are dealt with.
Funny, and very perceptive (about the varmints) AND Russia avoiding a military pact with China at least until the China-India friction is solved for good. Excellent points and we know of course, who will work to exacerbate that friction, however it can.
Also not mention the burgeoning trade between Russia and India. Russia wouldn’t want to throw that away, while the conflict seems manageable. Will they flip when they’re backs against the wall? That’s a different story…
India’s problem is that it has a large contingent of intelligensia that has been trained by the US academic system. They are the dormant army that can be unleashed per a color revolution against any Indian government that openly defies the West. They need to be kept in check using strategic ambiguity regarding India’s real intentions towards the West. So India takes the official moral high ground of its One Planet, One family, One future slogan – seeking wellbeing for the entire world. That same strategic ambiguity would also appear to be more in the interests of both Russia and China than a hard-wired defense pact. In other words, the potentiality of a defense pact would be more effective than an actual defense pact.
I’ll qualify by saying I’m no expert, just my views looking at both countries and their past:
The status quo, as far as we may know it, seems to work fine for China. Russia is markedly weakening NATO and the US, complete with what will be a dash of humiliation if things continue and NATO can’t come up with some exit strategy/narrative. As others have described, it’s an existential crisis for NATO.
What would China gain right now for announcing a military alliance with Russia? They seem to have a behind-the scenes relationship already, and likely some pretty open communication. A formal alliance would bring a lot of short-term economic grief (maybe) if the developed world started weaning itself from Chinese goods. Better to continue to bleed us while working on a post-developed world strategy for the eventuality they gut our economies and we are no longer capable of financing trade with them. As it is, we borrow to buy their products, so from a “war” perspective, we’re paying them to bring us down. Why risk ending that before you need too?
China seems more like a “work together” partner rather than the full formal relationship type, historically speaking. They also don’t have any long, friendly relationship with Russia. You can trust people only so far as you have mutual interest. Maybe in the long term Russia becomes China’s Canada – the source of the big economy’s resources, and, as long as things stay friendly, okay to leave alone. China likes expanding economic influence/control, not territorial, so doesn’t appear to be after real estate, so it could work. Not sure how a formal relationship benefits anyone, other than watching the war hawks shit their pants.
I think we’ll hear of closer ties to China, no formal papered up relationship. Keep everybody guessing, and thus off-balance. We’ll know soon.
I don’t know if the speech that Putin will give will have some paragraphs referring to the relationship with China, what I think is very likely, as you say, is that cooperation is increasing, China knows that if Russia is defeated, they are the following. Putin will refer to the transgressions by NATO and the West and will surely announce the start of the next phase of the conflict. I think the signs indicate that something big is on the way. The date and content of the speech will be the presentation framework.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China published this white paper today (20 Feb 2023) putting the US on notice. From the Chinese point of view, this is a stark warning about continuing “humiliation.”
U.S. Hegemony and Its Perils
Also today:
China hit back Monday against U.S. allegations that it may be providing Russia nonlethal military assistance in its war on Ukraine, telling Washington to stay out of its relationship with the Kremlin.
“The U.S. is not qualified to give orders to China,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at a regular news briefing. “We will never accept U.S. criticism, even coercion and pressure on China-Russia relations.”
https://www.yahoo.com/now/china-hits-back-u-allegations-140427662.html
the first link above is broken, the proper one seems to be https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-02-20/U-S-Hegemony-and-Its-Perils-1hzPTDFI8KI/index.html
Given Putin’s speech, and these comments from China, I’d say Putin and Xi are on the same page.
Thanks, Arioch, for the fixed link.
Here is the correct link to the Chinese foreign ministry. Sorry for the error.
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html
I don´t know Larry. But, whatever does manifest, my bet is that the West will not like it at all. It will be very far from beneficial for them.
I don’t see an advantage to China or Russia in openly allying militarily at this time. Both countries have every reason to seek to control expansion of the war to other fronts. Also, Councillor Wang’s statements at the Munich conference show continuing efforts to maintain and develop relations with Europe to the benefit of all. China continues to advocate win-win relations with all countries, even including the US. Read Global Times to see much evidence of this. At the same time, it’s not taking crap from the failing hegemon, nor does it need to. China holds too many cards, economically, politically, diplomatically, and militarily and can enjoy the fruits of its relationship with Russia to the full at the same time, including “making out in the back seat.” Must point out that many things happen in back seats of cars that are intentionally unreported and can hardly be proven, only surmised. Blinken can blather on with unenforceable, abstract threats. The Chinese can continue to point to their absurdity. The US can and, I expect, will continue to make trouble everywhere it can, including re Taiwan. One could make the case that establishing a military alliance at this time would strengthen a US case for intensifying hostile action in E Asia, including Taiwan. But I don’t think, either way, that the US can afford inciting a declaration of independence and face inevitable consequences on all the above-mentioned fronts. More “defense” spending, more huge budget deficits at home, sure, and WWIII can certainly develop. But China openly allying militarily with Russia at THIS time doesn’t look to me like something consistent with current needs or interests of either country.
One result possibly more likely to come out of Putin’s speech would be a false claim in response by the usual suspects that said alliance, while neither announced nor established, was the real “meaning” of whatever he may actually say.
No he will not.
A much likelier scenario is that he will announce some kind of actual Union State with Belarus.
Also, whatever “border disputes” China has with Vietnam and India are irrelevant. China has a well over $100 billion trade surplus with India; can any sane person imagine that it’ll throw that away over territory it has repeatedly offered to mutually swap with India? (That is, each side keeps the territory it controls but which is claimed by the other. ) As for Vietnam, China wiped the floor with it in the border war of 1979 (despite whatever you might have heard in the Westernaganda) and subsequent 1980s border clashes; Vietnam is no threat to China and Beijing knows it.
“A much more likely scenario is that he will announce some sort of de facto union state with Belarus.”
With Belarus? Union State? Pardon me, it has been under construction since 1997. And nothing has changed.
The construction of a union state is an endless and expensive process – unprofitable for Russia, profitable for Belarus. The process is everything, the result is nothing.
I remain of my opinion: Russia has no real allies. Because unions involve mutual legal obligations and responsibilities. In addition, alliances involve moral responsibility.
There is no need for China and Russia to be bound by treaty obligations. Both countries are connected only by mutual interest, which exists today, but may not tomorrow. If interests diverge, what then? Break the union treaty? A break is tantamount to a declaration of war.
Relationships can be compared to living together, but not legally married and without a marriage contract.
Working together. Sounds reasonable. It would be nice if we have everyone working together for a change.
But if they do plainly state they are cooperating; Then I would guess that heads are going to blow up faster than Martians hearing Slim Whitman yodel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz6b595kdhM
China/Russia alliance seems a long shot but worthy of analysis.
The chief advantage to announcing it now, in my view, would be to shake the Eurovassals out of the illusion that they can defeat a Russia that is isolated, and that their Master is the toughest on the block.
There are a number of trade-war drawbacks, but perhaps China is ready to cut / curtail commercial relations w/ US–dump treasuries, buy all available gold and attack the dollar….?
Unlikely – Peking isn’t quite ready for the full gamut of asset seizures and sanctions.
a interesting question to ponder – how would Peking and PRC industry reduce the risks from Washington imposing full blown sanctions and asset seizures ?
How long would these measures take to implement ?
More importantly, how could Washington and the US (including the Peninsula states across the pond) reduce the risks from Beijing imposing tit-for-tat full blown sanctions and asset seizures?
I doubt even the big club are quite stupid enough to shit in their own nest a second time while they’re still struggling to scoop the first pile of shit out of their nest. But then again, perhaps I over-estimate these muppets in DC. How long will it take for an empirewide malaise* to set in once the supply of yPhones, Thic-Toc videos and prescription drugs dry up because of ‘shock and awe sanctions’ against China?
*Because I doubt today’s generation of soft, hefty entitlement addicts has the testicular fortitude to do something assertive when the big club shafts them yet again.
Yeah right.Sanctions have worked sooooooo well against Russia!
How? create a large number of local banks that extend credit, monthly, at about median income +15% to expand demand, create a baseline of demand and lift the poorest in remote regions out of poverty. Zero interest rate but 2.5% transaction fee and other income must be paid into the account, and will be ‘taxed’ at 10% to reduce the debt.
How long? once the template was decided upon it could be rolled out in months.
I don’t think there’ll be an overt announcement of Defense Alliance. That’s like showing a “Red rag” to a “Bull in the China shop”.
The Defense Alliance is implicitly embedded in the already announced and signed “Strategic partnership with out limits” between Russia and China, I believe.
This unannounced “Alliance” will provide overarching necessary Security cover to SCO, CSTO, EAEU and in future BRICS (India and Brazil will have to decide in which camp they want to be in, Security wise eventually). This will be the vastly upgraded Counterpart to NATO (compared to dismantled Warsaw Pact).
“None of your F*****G business!” Blinken. Get it, Blinkey? China can ally itself with whomever it wants. So you better shut the F**K up and go help clean up Ohio instead.
PS: don’t forget to take your broom
I think most US citizens think China is responsible for creating and spreading the thing called Sarscov2, AKA the virus. All the disasters which followed the virus were laid on the Chinese. By calling it the China virus, Trump, unfortunately, amplified the noise that blamed the Chinese.
So what we’re left with today is a US population ignorant of Chinese culture, politics and history but, because of the perceived virus damages they personally suffered, are willing to believe whatever lies the beltway crowd presents to them about China.
I think China sees this visceral dislike by the US citizens and knows Washington controls that dislike.
I hear that we are going to get an update on how Russia views Europe and the influence of the US in about 6 hours.
This is going to be big, it WILL change things.
I do not think it be be the big joining or alliance building of China etc that some are saying however this may be in with the mix and is happening anyway regardless.
No, this is Russia calling time out on what the West has been doing and is doing day by day.
That Russia is in a conflict with the West and it will now move forward to ensure it can win this conflict!
I believe tomorrow will be a pivotal day in the history of Europe.
Bicycle clips on boys, some bluffs are about to be called.
Taiwan’s voters may very well be looking at Ukraine and thinking a change might be for the best. In late November Taiwans’ President Tsai Ing-Wen resigned after the pro-China party Kuomintang gained a lot of votes. Also, this is from Reuters a couple of days ago ” Taiwan’s main opposition Kuomintang (KMT) has wrapped up a nine-day trip to China, including meetings with some of the Communist Party’s highest-ranking officials, amid hopes its links with Beijing will help boost its chances in presidential elections that are due to be held next year.
“And if in a year [Taiwanese] elect a KMT candidate as president, cross-strait relations will improve a lot. That’s clearly what they think will be the most effective pitch to voters and if Beijing helps them make that pitch that’s smart from Beijing’s perspective.”
I think “people get marries” when they agreed on a somewhat long life plan. No point in marrying, just to change uncomfortable backseat for a comfortable bed – there are love hotels for it. Marrying means… okay, should mean, the couple settled on some, joint plan and stroke out other options.
Any formal defense pact inevitably makes parties vulnerable to “wagging the dog”, gives some share of their souvereignty to the partner in the marriage. This would not mean much if the sourvereignty is no more needed as there is a joint pre-agreed plan ahead.
Until now both China and Russia were reluctant to marry. They prefered to keep flexibility in pursuing their own interests in foreign politics, not the interests of their “spouses”.
One of those you just quoted. Russia is interested in mantaining ties with India, Vietnam and Japan, not China alone. Similarly, China wants to have significant influence in ex-USSR -stans, like Kazakhstan and Kyrgizstan and others.
China does not want to be obliged (even just morally) to send their army into Ukraine and Syria just because Russia does so (and China clearly does not want it for their own reasons too, or they would’ve done it already). But would Russia and China marry – it would have to do so.
Neither i think Russia dreams to be obliged leverage her oil trade to India to force India accept Chinease idea how their borderline should be managed.
IOW i do not see what is their in Russia in this marriage tooday that there was yesterday. Something has to change for wedding to happen.
Is China so feared with war with NATO that it would want Russian army to fight that war with or instead theirs? Maybe, but i don’t think Russia would want it.
Would Russia want China to smash EU and USA economically so they would paid dearly for the economic war they unleashed on Russia since 2014? Probably, but that is hardly something China wants.
Of course Putin would mention foreign police, including China. But announcing any formal “mutual defense pact” or something seems unlikely. It should imply not only Russia and China but all the SCO nations had finally rejected all the possibilities in the world except some joint pre-agreed grand plan. Which would mean start of a global WW3, cold or hot, between SCO/BRICS and NATO/EU+US.
I don’t believe even China alone is pressed into it yet, less so Russia and yet less so all other SCO nations.
Up until now both Russia and China enjoyed being friends with benefits and jealously guarded their freedom in all other relations. It would be a huge bombshell if this had changed, but nothing seems to hint at it.
…but maybe i am wrong, maybe both China and Russia already rejected all the future options but a isingle one and the “marriage contract” is inked already. Then tomorrow Putin would present it to Russian parliament. Okay. And Xi? Can he sign such a contract alone without approval of Chinese people deputies congress, or what they have for a Parliament (CCP congress would hardly fit, as they have more than one party)? There should be some “big government” assembly in China in the very coming days to reflect on any hypothetical marriage contract, mirroring one in Russian parliament. Are there?
So, my bet is, of ocourse China would be mentioned and many other nations would, but not any formal “marriage” is expected. There is no enough shotguns for such a wedding,
When we see Joe Biden expresses confidence about defeating Russia, taming China and Iran, then know there’s actually something going wrong. This display of childish self-assurance based on fictional Hollywood characters like Arnold, Rambo… is just too farfetched and out of context. Real western experts already recognize that the Russia-China -Iran ties are fully strategic due to perhaps geography among other things and won’t just go away by Washington’s doing short-term monkey business.
That all being said….
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-02-19/Wang-Yi-Ukrainian-FM-meet-on-sidelines-of-Munich-Security-Conference-1hysilwCzjG/index.html
When delivering a keynote speech at the MSC, Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, said China is going to release a position paper on political solutions to the Ukraine crisis on the upcoming first anniversary of the Ukraine crisis.
And this, for the always-neutral “tender calf” China, is a somewhat unexpected promise. I admit i am intrigued. Still, does not sound enough for talks about “marriage”.
No defense alliance.
This runs counter to the whole spirit & philosophy of multilateralism.
More cooperation, yes. But no forming of power blocks.
Multilateralism seeks a more democratic international community with parties engaging to reconcile & balance conflicting interests, not forming alliances to force others to abide in the dictates of leveraged power. Power blocks is what they want to get away from.
Yes.
There will be no Russia-China defence pact. Reason is simple; neither of the two seek to establish a bi-polar world. They both want a multi-polar world. Furthermore, such a setup would cause some of the countries that are friendly to either Russia or China, to step back as not every county in that multi-polar world is friendly with both Russia and China. There is simply no need to aggravate world-wide tensions that such an alliance would cause.
I believe he will concentrate on domestic issues and Ukraine and possibly NATO. The Russian media is treating this as a huge turning point, so I expect a very serious announcement on Ukraine and a harsh warning to NATO not to interfere.
China and Russia don’t need any formal deal – they can just sit back and watch the US military fall apart. They can’t produce munitions at any useful rate, their equipment is expensive to maintain, and breaks regularly with low effective utilization rates,
https://spectator.org/an-opportunity-xi-cant-ignore/
It’s like a modern military take on “great Expectations” which was a metaphor of the decline of the British Empire. Everything is falling apart, in disrepair, ironically like the Russian equipment at the end of the Soviet Union. The US and NATO are being exposed as toothless, paper tigers, legends in their own mind.
China and Russia can maneuver through this on a handshake. Sometimes I get the feeling Putin is trying to lure NATO into a direct conflict, as he must know their weaknesses while they’re ignorant of his strengths. China just seems to be sitting back, waiting for the right time that is rapidly approaching. Imagine, if Russia bogged NATO down, NATO troops in a meat grinder waiting for equipment on back-order, then China blockades Taiwan. The US dollar collapses along with its economy. Game over.
Alex Christoforou at The Duran makes an interesting observation. While Biden has gone to Kiev and Warsaw to say what he has to say, Trump has gone to East Palestine, Ohio, to say what he has to say.
Given a chance, and we do have social media, guess which one the Americans will be listening to?
Off topic but….
DOJ Drops Probe Into Rep. Matt Gaetz After Leaked Texts Implicate Israeli Govt in $25M Extortion Plot
…..Joel Greenberg, a potential Jeffrey Epstein-esque figure who had worked as a tax collector for Seminole County, Florida, appears to have tried to entrap Gaetz into having sex with a 17-year-old girl for blackmail purposes……
https://www.informationliberation.com/?id=63606
Thanks for the link.
I’d be surprised if there’s an announcement re: new alliances/partnerships/coalitions. Perhaps a mutual defence pact similar to NATO’s Article 5 could be possible, but any pact that does not include Iran and perhaps India as well would have had to have been very deeply discussed with both of them and their fears alleviated before any such announcement.
Rather, I think the announcement will be focussed on one or more domestic issues that have large international implications. A proposal to (say) amend the Russian constitution to bring the Russian Central Bank fully under Russian control, or to withdraw from certain treaties and agreements such as those that govern its membership in the IMF, WTO, WB, BIS or similar institutions.
Anyway, we’ll know in a few hours.
I’m just getting beer talk from old friends but it is good beer talk.
Sounds more akin to a push back to Europe from Russia and VERY direct!
Something like an anti Article 5.
ie An attack from one is an attack from all.
And that threshold from one may have been passed. Now Russia will act?
China needs this alliance to get help from Russia when Taiwan becomes a problem.
I’d be surprised. The thing with formal alliances is that you don’t only espouse a partner, you have to make do with your partner’s baggage. Given the history of the Indo-Russian relationship, Russia taking the side of China in the China-India dispute seems highly unlikely to me. I don’t think either side is ready to fully commit to make do with the other’s baggage. So if there is such an announcement, it will obviously be b/c the Russian and the Chinese know about US intentions things that we don’t.
I remember a singular trip made by an hegemon’s high value asset in Mongolia. Recently. I heard a wild bell’s alarm from that landocked Country.
Russians already stated that this kind of loose alliance that they currently entertain with China is much more beneficial than hard alliance as it is much more flexible. It remains to be seen but I dont believe they will do it.
“I assume that Putin may mention relations with China in passing or say nothing at all.
He will devote his speech to an assessment of the past year and the special military operation – its goals, justifications for the need, intermediate results and an analysis of the West’s reaction – what, how and why.
From what I’m hearing from friends (I can’t livestream at the moment), your prediction is on the money. The speech is a nothingburger.
Unless they missed something, it’s a typically Putin hard-nosed assessment of the year and a call for unity through the year(s) ahead. No announcement of any great import.
I am not sure about the official alliance. But who knows. But to comment on Blinken’s comments regarding China, I loved the following description:
“ 19 FEBRUARY—I love Wang Yi’s response when The New York Times’s Michael Crowley caught him in a hallway at the Munich Security Conference Saturday and asked the Chinese foreign minister if he planned to meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines.
“He simply chuckled,” Crowley wrote of Wang at the conclusion of his report.
Chuckled. I am reminded of that moment last year when Blinken, after formal talks in Moscow, pulled Sergei Lavrov into a private room at the Kremlin and asked Russia’s foreign minister if it was true Moscow’s plan was to reconstruct the Russian Empire. Lavrov glared, turned, and left the room—no reply, no handshake, no farewell, just an abrupt exit, a leaving behind.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/thescrum/p/diplomats-as-show-people
The hastily scheduled Chinese Minister visiting Russia today maybe relaying a message from the USA as well as discussing deeper Defense agreements so Putin is likely to comment publicly about this meeting . The Shanghai Co-operation Organisation has the potential to become a mutual Defense Alliance if its leaders so wish……
God, the United States needs to get nuked so bad.
Lawyer says he is in great danger.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/b1kvphkaj
Israeli professor arrested on arms trafficking charges claims Biden vendetta
Prof. Gal Luft wanted by U.S. for charges tied to illegal export of arms to Libya, China; defense expert claims arrest part of plot to silence him for cooperating with feds on Hunter Biden’s business dealings
Itamar Eichner, Attila Somfalvi|02.19.23 | 10:30
…
Prof. Gal Luft, 56, a former lieutenant colonel in the Israeli army and the executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington, was detained at Larnaca International Airport by the local police as he prepared to board a flight back to Israel. Luft is wanted by the U.S. for charges tied to the illegal export of arms to Libya and China.
…
On Sunday morning, Luft shared a tweet protesting his arrest and going on to name both Bidens, and the U.S. president’s brother Jim.
“I’ve been arrested in Cyprus on a politically motivated extradition request by the US,” he wrote.
“The US, claiming I’m an arms dealer. It would be funny if it weren’t tragic. I’ve never been an arms dealer. DOJ is trying to bury me to protect Joe,Jim&Hunter Biden. Shall I name names?”…
I think that Russia and China are very aware at this point that the hawks in Washington grow ever more belligerent because they deeply believe that the theatres of war will always be far away from the north american continent.
Shattering that belief would probably a powerful defense vector
True.
Mutual Assured Destruction must be reintroduced quite officially, in order to thwart the insane nuclear plans advocated by some fanatics in D.C.
Time to blow the whistles.
Colonels Douglas McGregor, Richard Black, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, and of course Scott Ritter have been warning publicly about the danger for a while.
I guess you haven’t heard of that BRICS thingy?
Text highlights of Putin’s address
https://t.me/arhnow/8674 and further on
I am surprised. After the intro and list of grievances how West abused Russia – The next hour of talk was focused on domestic affairs, not “unions with China” or other foreign policy issues.
The address is still going on, so it might come later, but not yet.
Over.
So, not a word about alliance with China or America or anyone.
START treaty (not sure which one) is put on hold. That’s perhaps the only FP thing.
The rest was about domestic issues.
The “zeitgeist” of a speech feels close to “splendid isolation” if not autarkia.
Foreign concerns and expectations were not even mentioned after the intro, in “what and how should we enhance” sections.
If Putin’s address had any message to other nations – then it was “we don’t care, we are playing solo now” one.
This START treaty suspension is actually a big thing , add the manner with VVP’s denunciation of American duplicity in the inspections process and you have a new “cold war” situation.
So , the Russians are in “cold war mode” , let’s see what the western madhouse Circus replies , just pray the senile clowns won’t do or say too much shit , no-ones wanna see the Russians in “great patriotic war” mode. Copy that ?
Chinese are for now in a kind of Swedish neutrality : they are selling everything to any parties in the conflict at the same price ; let’s just hope the Blinken’s show and the balloons saga don’t help them to pick a side in the Farce…
Russia is in hot war mode, if you haven’t noticed. Over half a million men mobilized under arms on a 1000 km battlefront doesn’t count?
And Putin specifically laid out “The West’s” lies and treachery. Bluntly. Plainly. That Russia is fighting “The West” for its very existence. Diplomacy is done.
As are the Chinese now bluntly calling out the US, despite their fabled reserve and tacit. There was no side to pick — “The West” made it plain that China is an enemy to be conquered. Just like Russia.
The Russians and Chinese don’t need to get married; self-preservation is a mutual interest.
“First they laugh at you , then they fear you , then they fight you , then you win”. as Gandhi said. For now the Chinese are taking “in a way” the most possible inverse position than “the west”, namely : “let’s talk about peace now”.
Is it what they are saying , what they are doing , I don’t have a damned clue about it. For now they didn’t loose a Yuan in the SMO … quite the contrary, so … make your own conclusions …
After the introduction and a list of complaints about how the West insulted Russia…
It’s time to stop this derogatory rhetoric. Putin did not complain to anyone, he explained what this self-sung West with its pseudo-democracy is worth.
Putin’s speech is over.
Not a word about China. A little about the West. The rest is all about us, loved ones, about the country, about the people, about exploits, about gratitude, about social and economic development, about the development of new regions, about education, about maternity capital and supporting families.
About lovers of yachts and palaces abroad – good riddance.
It will no longer be possible to earn money in Russia, but live abroad and invest in foreign economies.
We will gradually abandon the dollar for trade.
Also, “Ukrainian regime and their western masters are essentially occupying Ukrainian nation”.
Can be just a jingoistic rhetoric. Or can be official denying any legitimacy to Kiev governments. I do not think Putin or other top officials used such wording before (journalists did, but that is probing and entertainment).
This is a hint that the Ukrainian government and most of the elite are neither ethnically Russian nor Ukrainian.
There is no single Ukrainian nation. Western Ukrainians and eastern Little Russians differ mentally. Plus ethnic Russians and small peoples of Transcarpathia. All this community could exist peacefully within the framework of one state, if the Western Ukrainians had not aggressively, forcibly imposed their language and rural culture. This process of destabilization of Ukrainian society was initiated from above with malicious intent.
The Russians might not do media well, but they sure can troll. When Hal Turner predicts Putin’s announcement of all out war on the West? Well, y’all have to settle for a comparatively dry update on the state of Russia’s economy moving forward.
Putin sure can keep ’em dancing; as for Hal Turner? Lmfao, caveat emptor. How anybody can take these idiots seriously is beyond me.
If you want to do nitpicking then at least do it.
“complaint” is your word not mine, so you are rebuffing yourself
If this nitpicking ever had any meaningful value
Yes, “complaint” is our word. But you’re right – you don’t have to catch the semantic nuances of using words in the context of a foreign language. Especially through a translator. Sorry.
So what has China to say about the US?
US Hegemony and Its Perils
https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjbxw/202302/t20230220_11027664.html
Hat tip to Gonzalo Lira
grazie
Thought provoking.
This also caused me to listen to CNN for the first time in many years, other when it cannot be avoided such as at a US airport. They really are fake news. Trump was spot on. A sheer, hysterical propaganda channel propagating “the narrative”. Dreadful.
With respect to the prospect of a formal Russo-China alliance my instinct is that they do not need to create this. It would go against the multi polar concept and might even alienate other BRICS powers. Quite possible though that there will be increased messaging to show mutual support in other ways. My suspicion is that China’s forthcoming position power on Ukraine will be positioned in terms of assuring overall European security, which is very much in line with Russia’s position. It also explains why western politicians and their media cheerleaders are so hysterical about it.
Bottom line is that China knows that the US seeks conflict with her. So she has every incentive to support Russia. The weird thing is that Blinken and co think they can threaten China to not support Russia. What are they giving her in return? If the US defeats Russia then it will come after China even faster! But Blinken and co are not stupid so my guess is that threats against China right now are simply pretexts so that they can justify confrontation. They must know that China understands reality.
The Empire will go down fighting, I believe. There is too much money and too many comfortable careers at stake for it to do anything else. US and European populations will continue to be propagandised to believe that this is a fight for “democracy”.
“With respect to the prospect of a formal Russo-China alliance my instinct is that they do not need to create this.”
Instinct is best left to opponents who iteratively believe that they do need to create this:
facilitating further illustration of the “default framing of projection” of their “powerful propaganda agents” misrepresented as “The United States of America”:
which would go against the multi polar concept and alienate other BRICS powers.” and encourage the changing perceptions of non-BRICS powers.
“The Empire will go down fighting…”
No – likely “The Empire” will go down by dying with the aid of a growing sum of some.
Defying US requests to partake in sanctions against Russia is no big deal because everyone — well, at least the elites running the show — know that sanctions are just pointless bs rituals to begin with anyway.
But China obviously won’t enter into any significant military agreement with Russia if the US tells it not to (else that would be a much bigger affront against the US).
China is not a “military” state — it merely just has enough of an army to police its own populace, with possibly a few couple “special forces” inside any of its own foreign puppet states/proxies/etc to retain control over them as well.
Hence, China is completely useless in any Russia-related military affairs beyond possibly a little bit of manufacturing here and there. Russia also knows this and understands that China is certainly *not* a willing ally to militarily-defy the United States in any large/significant capacity, and hence cannot really be “relied upon” for any such affairs.
In short — China is in no position to do anything directly posing a military threat to the United States’ military dominance, such as a big Russia-China military pact. Defying US-requested sanctions is one thing (since those are just pointless bs anyway) — and posing a giant threat to the United States’ military dominance is another…
The Chinese leadership must surely know that Russia is but a step in the journey to clobber the Middle Kingdom, if Russia folds up, they will be next. Helping Russia may speed up the the conflict ending it sooner, that’s what everyone of peace wants.
It’s obvious to anyone with a brain that the biggest threat to Americans is the despicable political class in Washington DC. We have the most incompetent, dumbass leaders who have sold out our country to a small minority with lots of money. From neoconnery, to wokeness, to fiscal and monetary mismanagement, it all points in one direction.
grazie
true;
just as politicians are sold out and cowardly servants which do not represent the peoples of €urope.
Putin announce withdrawal from Start treaty. Why make treaties with pathological liars with no honor.
https://www.rt.com/russia/571834-russia-suspends-key-nuclear-treaty-putin/
Nowhere in the west do I see someone speaking about Education as Putin did. The russian “paideia” makes the collective west’s one look like an unfortunate delusion, if not some sort of criminal aberration.
Mr. Johnson- am not sure if putin will comment on china at all. he is pretty cagey and i think the main point of view of his speech will be about ukraine and us-nato. There is no need to put his cards out on the table to the world public right know. this is interesting-zerohedge just posted this just ahead of the speech
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/putin-suspends-new-start-nuclear-treaty-puts-new-missiles-combat-readiness
The USA are idiots. They are trying to do to china what they did to japan in the last couple of yrs before ww2. «In that case it was all in japan 2 seven offsuit vs the usa with a pair of aces. In this case the roles are reversed and china will call out our bluff. The chinese know their history. Unless the chinese economy is in way worse shape with the real estate debt than we are told; i think the usa this time will fail.
you posted on your article the below. «in my opinion there may be elements of china and russian influence in our country; but the real enemy is our government who is trying to do everything they can do to destroy and enslave the middle class .
Two years ago a poll revealed that:
Nearly half of Americans now say China is the greatest enemy of the United States—more than double the percentage who said likewise just last year, according to a survey conducted by Gallup.
this is the 2023 agenda which must be resisted at all costs in my opinion.
‼️IMPORTANT‼️ Great explanation of how CBDCs are the perfect method of absolute control of the population.
https://rumble.com/v2a0426-february-18-2023.html
right click to save
https://sp.rmbl.ws/s8/2/o/A/A/n/oAAni.oaa.mp4
https://republicbroadcasting.org/news/dont-bow-down-to-a-dictatorial-government-america-is-a-prison-disguised-as-paradise-2/
“If all that Americans want is security, they can go to prison. They’ll have enough to eat, a bed and a roof over their heads. But if an American wants to preserve his dignity and his equality as a human being, he must not bow his neck to any dictatorial government.”— President Dwight D. Eisenhower
we need to follow the example of the swiss patriots below
https://truthtalk.uk/2023/is-switzerland-about-to-become-first-country-to-outlaw-a-cashless-society/
potter did a good job on this. the only place in the usa that makes battle tanks is in ohio and one of its main suppliers may have just been also taken out. the 1917 style bolshevik revolution in the usa is well underway in my opinion using the ukraine, russia and china as a cover. In 1917 when the revolution really got going they had the war with germany still going on.
https://odysee.com/@RoystonPotter:b/russia-has-shelters-for-russians-and-the:9
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/explosion-rocks-ohio-metal-plant-sending-large-plume-black-smoke-sky
Respectully,
ralph
The fact that Biden – and the other wingnuts who go to grovel to Elensky – have to get permission from Russia to visit, tells you who is wearing the trousers here!
One day later the answer to your question is NO, no defense pact. But the actual answer is yes in reality terms. Has been de facto for a good while. All the major players know this. Announcing the fact isn’t necessary or wise. It is what it is.
The expletives and four-letter words in Spanish in the second video are just … epic …
I think the next stage in the ongoing war, will be the setting up of joint naval bases around the world.
Places that come to mind are South Africa, Argentina, Equatorial Guinea, Venezuela and so forth.
It seems certain that Russia is in no hurry to end the war in Ukraine quickly and that the longer it goes on The West will drive itself into bankruptcy.
However, the longer it goes on, the likelihood of a NATO false flag using a tactical nuclear device gets ever greater.
Text of President Putin’s speech.
https://mandynews.com/vladimir-putin-speech-english-transcript-to-the-russian-federal-assembly/
The West will focus on START, but it was the United States that created this nuclear wild west show with their abrogation of the most important document ever signed by humans, the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty, in 2002, and Putin has pointed this out to deafening western silence, 1,000 times since.
And they will miss the core message.
“The capital earned here must remain here.”
The speech could’ve written by Xi Jinping. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin ran it by his old friend first, and asked him; “Have I left anything out?”
I agree with others that Putin will not formally announce any Russian-Chinese military alliance during his upcoming speech. I would not be surprised however to hear him remind everyone of the “partnership between the two states without any limitations” already codified in last February’s agreement: https://theasiatoday.org/editorials/russia-china-partnership-agreement/
So for my part we are entering either COLD WAR II or WORLD WAR III wherein nations are being forced (or incentivized) to choose their camp(s)…for example Finland and Sweden joining NATO and the emergence of some new version of the WARSAW PACT or economic alliances like BRICS+. Whatever we call this war it is a battle between a Multi-Polar geopolitical world versus a hegemonic world order.
This new war is a hybrid war meaning that its battlefields are as likely to be economic as they are conventional force on force warfare. Here is a better definition of hybrid warfare: https://cepa.org/article/what-is-hybrid-warfare-really/
Considering that COLD WAR I lasted from 1945-1991 and included multiple (global) military force on force gyrations as well as revolutions in economic and cyber warfare we can realistically expect to see increased polarization between the West and the rest of the globe. US foreign policy as well as national strategy is all about polarization to the point of exclusion–policy and strategy that has clearly failed.
Simplicius76 talks about “shaping operations” in the Ukraine SMO to show how Russian forces are staging combat power, disrupting infrastructure, and seizing key terrain in support of offensive operations. My premise is now this: The Ukraine SMO has become a shaping operation for the unfolding hybrid COLD WAR II/WORLD WAR III–whether the SMO was originally intended for that purpose or not.
Plainly stated…the Ukraine SMO is just the beginning.
To my recall *Novorossia* (Novorossiya – New Russia) was never mentioned before in a Putin’s speech, together with Dombass.
This may give us an idea where the Russian troops will headed in the future, and how the map of the rest of Ukraine will look like after the war. ( https://t.me/fred33flint/302 )
President Putin’s Full Speech Live and In English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63Nkp0Hvbmo&t=15s
China is the last partner Russia needs. But the situation dictates Russia seek an alliance with China to counter US aggression. China and Russia have a history of their own conflicts, and bloody ones at that. Russia was going to annihilate China in the early 70s, but the US under Nixon warned Russia that such a move would result in a US response. Geopolitics sometimes results in wild moves and counter moves. My own personal feelings as an Orthodox Christian is that partnering with atheistic China will eventually be understood to be a mistake. China has none of the cultural values that the new Russia embraces. Admittedly, I am biased. My extended family suffered under the Chinese communists. In Russia the old communist party is just a shadow of what it was. Idiot Americans still think that Russia is Soviet Russia…. Well, now I am rambling. China and Russia do not need to announce anything. They have a defacto alliance against the US and their western allies.
The problem with your analysis is that it is the view of a Christian, of a person whose family suffered under communism. In that, you lack a non-bias position on your views. As it is, Russia and China are already partners, have you heard of BRICS or BRICS+? How about the Belt and Road Initiative? As you are an Orthodox Christian how do you feel about India? They are partners of Russia also. Africa and its ‘tribal’ ways are going to send you over the edge as well, you do realize China and some African countries have partnerships.
What you are missing is that since 2000 Russia has slowly brought other countries together, with them, to forge a multi-polar world. That multi-polar world included China. The roots of that partnership were forged long ago, a partnership forged on mutual respect of each nation and their culture, and non-interference in the internal politics of each nation. You see, these new partnerships are not based on any religion or spiritual belief, thus, to think that Russia has made a mistake is erroneous as Russia has no intentions of changing the politics or religion of any nation they partner with.
I already stated my bias. So you are being redundant. If you think the belt and road initiative is good for developing countries, think again. Because all it does is make those countries debt slaves to China. The Chinese government has learned a lot from dollar dominance. Putin has stated, “There is no friendship between nations, only national interests.” So, being polite as I can be: Go pound sand, Lou.
Opinions not based on facts are worthless.
Ask the BRI recipients if they feel like debt slaves. The debt slaves are us, the World Bank and IMF captives.
” The Chinese government has learned a lot from dollar dominance.”
Quite so, but others have also learned a lot, whilst others who did not have been transcended although often don’t realise this.
“Because all it does is make those countries debt slaves to China. ”
No not that, since that renders co-operation dependent on coercion and hence is not sustainable – although not all agree and use coercion to facilitate co-operation since agreement is not an option, merely a projected myth, thereby facilitating the unsustainability of co-operation.
” the belt and road initiative ” is a development of conversations held from 1973 onwards between The Soviet Academy of Sciences and Mitsui/Mitsubishi for and on behalf of the zaibatsu, rendered attractive after Mr. Nixon and his associates engaged in the alchemy of rendering gold into paper whose primary target was Japan, the financing of which is largely replicated in the belt and road initiatives for mutual benefits.
The “Amur war” was used by the Politburo as an excuse to deflect emphasis onto the BAM (Baikal Amur Railway) developments, since the medal collector and associates believed in their attainment of detente on the bases of spheres of influence with “The United States of America”.
To be blunt. Biden is a perfect representation of our national dementia.
Genghis Khan . There were no drive in movies in his time. Khan was a busy chap. Some thousand odd wives .Thousands of kids. Genghis would approve of the Russia /China military pact . They all have the DNA of Genghis Khan . History repeats itself.
Both Russia and China are cagey and both play the long game and neither nation is prone to the bellicosity of the western nations. They will say very little publicly but will negotiate with South American, Indo-Asian and African nations. These nations already see the strength of each nation but, the combined military and financial strength of Russia and China will embolden these nations to disregard the threats from the western world. The recent events in the Solomon Islands are a prelude of what can be expected from other smaller nations. The western imperial hegemony is gasping for breath and its death rales are being heard worldwide.
I get the odd feeling that the US wants Russia and China in the “evil” partnership. At least the US is doing everything that would bring them together. Zelensky threatens WWIII as if he has any say in what happens. Putin is a very rational man.
If China invests desperately in inland and greater Eurasian connectivity through railway freight transportation it would indicate and expected military confrontation with the United States..
China can keep American military ships and strike forces off with missiles but it’s own dependency on ship based transportation is a critical weakness. The US will have standoff systems as well that can rather easily sink commercial ships…
The US can functional disable maritime commercial shipping along Chins coast and the result would near complete shut down of China’s industrial and agricultural capacity.. Railroads are more robust and hardened to missiles strikes and even the weakest train bridges are stronger and less expensive then the most heavily defended and armored ships.
Policy is cheap and fungible, words are even cheaper but, infrastructure is both incredible expensive and long lasting therefore observe carefully what your adversary is building. More Trains means preparation for hard War more Ships mean continued submission to the Empires ocean transport based global trade system..
The U.S. has spent untold TRILLIONS of $ over many decades on the “defense” budget. Either that money was just one giant grift or we’ve got a trove of secret weapons we haven’t even revealed yet. I’m talkin’ flying saucers, a Death Star that we’ve been hiding using our cloaking technology, T-1000 Terminators and Imperial Walkers (AT-ATs).
Assuming we have such weapons, it would make sense to push Russia and China together so that we can kill two birds with one stone. No need for separate propaganda campaigns; just one giant “other” for our two minute hate, then we send them all to the promised land with the equivalent of an alien invasion. Their puny nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles will just bounce off of our force field – HA! -and Americans will watch it all on our giant ass TVs streamed live in 4K as if it were the Super Bowl – brought to you by Pfizer, makers of the life-saving (not) safe and effective (not) vaccine (not).
Of course, if all of those TRILLIONS of $ were in fact one giant grift and our so-called “leaders” are what they appear to be – blithering idiots – then we’re screwed.
I want to distinguish between two things. One is the immoral provocation of Russia and also the stupid antagonizing of China as well by the current ruling elites of the west. The second is China is our enemy. Any totalitarian system always strives for global domination. This includes China and now apparently the west too lol. China is not some innocent player getting bullied by the west.
Anyone who does not see China as a threat is most likely a socialist themselves or already bought off. However, there is a wise way to handle China and this is not it! Acting like 2 year olds is not the way to go.
Well, Putin’s speech was a big dud.
Hardly, it was cogent. Putin’s speech outlined why Russia is a leading world nation, and the West is in decline.
Same old stuff he’s been on about for a couple of years. Pure political rhetoric. It only seems good/cogent because the US is currently cursed with crooked senile dolts at helm.
Oh and someone up above was telling me that Russia doesn’t brag about how excellent it is like Americans do. The America hating and Russia worshipping around these parts does give me a chuckle from time to time. Everything Russian is pure brilliance and righteousness and everything American is despicable. Give me a break already.
Yup — there’s often a lot of hype in these blogs for Russia to go thumping its chest against the West instead of playing conservatively, plus failing to realize Russia is playing conservatively not out of “courtesy” or formality but easily because of its own shortcomings as well.
James K,
Precisely. If Russia or China could, they would dominate the world as the neocons wish to do. In fact, China is overtly building towards such a goal, as Arioch (above) has noted. No one here (except the Chinese bots) would want to live under the Chinese model as it truly is – and the Han are quite racist and believe they are inherently superior to the rest of us. Fuck them and that.
Yeah, and Sniffy Joe’s speech was a master class in oratory.
How dare that evil Russian dictator not tell us in great detail the plans of the Russian General Staff.
His speech was for his people, not us.
sniffy Joe is a complete crooked senile ass. That fact has no bearing on Putin’s status.
There are no great Russian generals. There are no great American generals.
Obviously his speech was for his people. It kind of lacked luster, but yeah, everything Putin does is for his people (or for himself or his oligarch buddies).
Is the ground frozen yet?
“…If Russia or China could, they would dominate the world as the neocons wish to do…”
“..the Han are quite racist and believe they are inherently superior to the rest of us…”
The bullshit just doesn’t stop flowing.
Please Larry could you introduce a block feature?
Some time ago I asserted that the CCP was not committing genocide against the Uighurs but simply exerting heavy-handed control. Having become informed that the Uighur birth rate in Xinjiang has crashed more than 80% since 2016 due to anti-fertility measures forced upon them by the Chinese government, I retract my statement.
The People’s Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party are committing genocide against the Uighur population of China.
Down with the CCP.
Slava Cocaine!
I would venture the claim that a Sino-Russian mutual defense alliance has already been sealed – and that such an alliance has in fact already been in existence for many years.
If even a casual political observer such as myself can grasp the imperative of such an alliance, then I trust that responsible parties in Moscow and Peking will have realised as much many years ago. The establishment of such a military alliance will have gone hand-in-hand with the economic integration of the two countries in the 2014-2022 time period.
In short, Russia and China would have to be fools if such an alliance were not already a long-established fact.
hopeful! it would likely stop ww iii.
Cutting through all the obvious propaganda the clear political reality is that China will never allow any foreign power to use Taiwan as a staging area for mainland China invasion as the Japanese did during the second world war. As the US is clearly attempting to surround China militarily with an abundance of proxies from which military strikes can occur, similar to Ukraine and Russia, the Chinese will definitely seek a military alliance with Russia. The US will respond with escalation as it did in Ukraine. The question that remains unanswered is whether the voters in the US will vote for a change in foreign policy or WW III in the 2024 election.