I received a great questions from a German reader who also happens to be a journalist. He asked, “What would be a way and what would be the practical implications if Europe in general and Germany in particular were to break with the US in order to find a European peace and economic framework including Russia? ”
The craven sycophancy demonstrated by Germany, France and the United Kingdom in their passionate embrace of America’s confrontation with Russia is now on life support. Despite continued bombastic threats to keep arming Ukraine until Russia collapses, economic reality is hitting the Europeans like an icy cold shower from a fire hose. Rapid inflation, particularly in the energy sector, is forcing factories and businesses to shutter operations. The de-industrialization of Europe, especially Germany and the UK, has started. German steel plants are closing, German bakeries are trying to figure out how to pay soaring utility bills while still making bread and pretzels and German toilet-paper manufacturer Hakle GmbH has applied for insolvency proceedings in self-administration. If you don’t have a bidet or a bucket full of sand, toilet paper is an essential item. The inflationary spiral may lead to the day where it is cheaper to wipe your ass with a 100 Euro note than three sheets of Hakle.
So, the economic situation in each of the countries is going to create enormous domestic pressure for the respective European governments, which currently are cheer-leading Ukraine and cursing Russia, to rethink their policies. The Russia/Ukraine war already has created significant fissures among EU members, with Hungary refusing to impose further sanctions on Russia. Cold, hungry voters will become increasingly outraged at sending millions of dollars to Ukraine while deprivation multiples from Berlin to London.
Europe’s rift with Russia is huge and Russia is not in a mood to forgive the insults hurled at all things Russian, theft of Russian financial resources and Europe’s facilitation of terrorist attacks on the soon to be new Russian citizens from the oblasts of Kherson, Zaporhyzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk. Russia holds the critical trump card–it can turn on the flow of gas and oil essential to rekindle manufacturing and home heating in Europe. But I do not think Russia will do so without a quid pro quo. What could that be?
How about Europe breaking with NATO? Or, more simply put, the break up of NATO. Up to this point Europe has embraced the delusion that Russia cannot function economically without a European market. The last six months of Russia’s Special Military Operation have proven that the opposite is true–without Russia’s key resources Europe is a dead economy walking naked into a frozen winter.
Europe’s two largest trading partners are China and the United States. Europe runs a trade deficit with China. If China demands payment in dollars, rather Euros, then the inflationary pressure on Europe will escalate. Why? Because the value of the U.S. dollar has soared relative to the Euro and British pound sterling. They will have to spend more Euros to buy dollars, which means the trade deficit with China is likely to worsen.
The situation with the United States is the opposite. The United States has run a deficit with Europe who, in turn, has enjoyed a surplus. That surplus will go away or, at a minimum, shrink dramatically. Germany’s ability to export products to the United States will weaken because of the price of the dollar and because European factories will close or cut back on production.
Barring a miracle turnaround–i.e, inflation disappears and the energy crisis dissipates–the situation in Europe will become more dire. The history of these kinds of economic upheaval is littered with the corpses of politicians that insisted on pushing policies that hurt their voters. Germany’s Wiemar Republic’s failure paved the way for the rise of Adolf Hitler to power. I am not suggesting a new Hitler is waiting in the wings, but I do believe that the power now wielded by the Greens across Europe will be curtailed or even snuffed out.
The United States is facing its own looming economic disaster. The collapse of the stock market–now down over 20% since the first of the year–is likely to continue. Notwithstanding the Biden administration’s strident insistence that there is no recession, the signs of recession are mounting, especially in the housing market. But the worsening economic picture is not yet sufficient to generate the necessary political pressure among the propagandized American electorate to back away from sending billions to Ukraine. A major shock of stagflation or a collapse of the Ukrainian army, however, could change that calculus.
The United States and Europe are playing a high stakes poker game with Russia. They’ve bet all their chips that Ukraine will either defeat Russia or force Russia to the bargaining table and that Putin, with hat in hand, will crawl on his belly before the western masters and beg for relief. That is insane. But there are many politicians and pundits inhabiting the dark corners of Washington who keenly believe this fantasy.
Russia does not play poker. Russia plays chess and plays it well. Russia’s burgeoning trade and military relations with China, Iran, India and Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Brazil is making Putin’s position stronger, not weaker. The eventual collapse of Ukraine as a result of a wrecked economy and/or battlefield defeats, will be more than a black eye for NATO and, by extension, Europe. It would likely destroy the raison detre’ for NATO. That in turn will lay the foundation for a rapprochement with Russia sans the United States.
The age of the United States’ Colossus is nearing its end. Uncle Sam will no longer have a pack of yipping European Yorkshires, Poodles and Dachshunds on a leash. I think we are on the threshold of a new multi-polar international order that will finally shatter the legacy of European colonialism and American imperialism. As Garland Nixon has wisely noted, “General Winter is on the march.”
“I received a great questions from a German reader who also happens to be a journalist. He asked, “What would be a way and what would be the practical implications if Europe in general and Germany in particular were to break with the US in order to find a European peace and economic framework including Russia? ” ”
May I suggest leaving the EU and consider reforming your political and electoral system of whatever it is that permits a minor party like the Greens from dominating German politics? Neither NATO nor the US is the source of Germany’s problem.
NATO and the US are the core problem based on their ideological influence they have on EU political leadership through institutional organizations who are in close contact with EU politicians. The current political leadership in most EU countries have no intellect and historical knowledge. The US has a strong ideological hold on these politicians. The Greens like Baerbock and Habeck only can dominate because Scholz is no real political leader.
The Germans voted these people in. They are going to have to live with the consequences, or do something about it like in Sri Lanka, which I don’t see happening in Germany. So happy Winter!
And also because they have the support from Washington. Very good answer indeed!
My urgent suspicion: the Greens are a branch of the CIA/Atlantic Bridge and/or other Anglo-American whisperers. Presumably the same advisor as the Ukrainian actor Zelensky.
Very perceptive comment. Thank you
Without a doubt. They are destroying Germany’s industrial base. The “US” – subjective because there are people who make these decisions – will never under any circumstances allow economic trade between Russia and Germany. Not with Russia’s huge resources and Germany’s industrial potential.
That certainly is apparent to many in asia, but somehow is not sonething germans are bothered with. Quite a few Germans working and living in many asian cities lecture the locals that we dont understand germany’s problems, they put the blame only on russia even when tild that the war in donbas started even before maidan in 2014
Good one… I would not be surprised.
Germany’s constitution was written by Uncle Schmuel, the United States IS responsible for Germany’s problem.
In fact, the US is Europe’s problem, period.
“Germany’s constitution was written by Uncle Schmuel,…”
Yes, and no. The German Constitutional Court ruled, in 1955, that the “old Reich” – the Wiemar Republic still existed, even though it was without form and function. The German military surrendered, not the state. That means the government currently posing as the German government is actually a government of occupation. If the German public understood this suppressed information, a group of citizens could conduct an election under the Wiemar Constitution and legally be the German government.
I am an American who vehemently disagrees with the Ukranian war. My country started this debacle in 2014 and am ashamed of the then American President OBama, and that shame now continues under our our DEMENTIA PRESIDENT! I hope Europe breaks away from the hold the US has on it. I hope the citizens rise up against it. I am 76 years of age and hope even Americans wake up!
The Greens have been coopted, they betray their mandate grotesquely to serve US imperialism. They receive funding from the National Endowment for Democracy, this means knowingly or not they are CIA assests. They lack anyone capable of understanding consequences of policy on energy and economy – cite dogma and virtue signal. According to German journalist Thomas Roper, the political elite in Germany are similarly comprised, it is impossible to get into politics in Germany without having undergone grooming in NATO affiliated NGOs.
The fact that European leaders and unelected bureaucrats in the EU are aggressively pursuing policies which will perhaps, (without hyperbole), destroy Europe, her economy and industry, while immiserating her population and opening up her public wealth to mass pilfering – but coincidentally bring about massive benefits for US interests and assure US hegemony and European dependency – Should be a strong indicator of what and the real problem is. And who is in charge.
Dismantling NATO. That is part of it but breaking relations with the USA or at least addressing the hostile domestic interference, acknowledging it and protecting ourselves against seems vital.
Russia has already outlined a security Architecture for Europe that would be satisfactory for it. Honoring this, also seems like a good start.
Maybe an idea to start dumping dollars too and buyi g instead Yuan and rubles.
Excellent observations.
My sense is that the Russian leadership wants nothing to do with the UK. They’re out of any future deal, irrespective of leaders. Ditto, Finland until that foolish young woman is gone.
However, I think the Italians, French and Germans are very much in play. If Putin has the Italians and Germans on board, he will have a platform to break NATO and also the EU.
Whether Putin will parlay with Macron and Scholz is debatable, I guess. I may be wrong, but Macron is typically French and may be pliable. As for Scholz, if he can get rid of Habeck and Baerbock, that may open the door.
One move that may influence events could be Russia’s policy towards Hungary. Providing largesse to ‘friendly’ nations
such as Hungary with energy, trade and even regional concessions (Hungary has ancestral lands in Ukraine) may be a smart way for Moscow to signal to other continental European nations, not just that breaking from NATO is in their long term interests, but that Russia has no imperial/malign intentions towards them and just wants to trade on fair and non-adversarial terms.
Fascinating times.
The French and Russians have similar interests in mitigating German and British power on the continent. Between that, their historical comity (post-Napoleon) and France’s nuclear arsenal, it isn’t difficult for me to envision a post NATO European security framework anchored by those two nations.
It’s becoming apparent that Germany is spent as a continental power. They had a run but overplayed their hand twice in the 20th century and responded by building an export economy off the kindness of strangers with little statecraft or cogent foreign policy since the Nazis ran away.
In that scenario, the UK becomes part of a English-speaking bloc dominated by the US (having a a strong deference to British prerogatives thanks to a shared history) with little to no influence on the continent.
The Russians have dealt with British geostrategic thinking since the mid 19th century and a British retreat from continental affairs is the best outcome for all parties.
Good points and well made. Maybe it’s my age but to me Germany is the key player. The Germans won’t tolerate being #2 to the French.
The Greens do not enjoy widespread support in Germany. It’s a great shame that Habeck and Baerbock wield such power. If removed, a vacuum emerges into which more mainstream players may play a role.
The French? I lived there for years. They aren’t in great shape. It’s a bad economy. Their public service system is huge and inefficient, a significant drain on their treasury. Their leadership class is oligarchic. I admire their independence, but just can’t see them being the beating heart of Europe.
Also don’t forget the Italians. Too many fall into the trap of assuming that they are bumbling, lazy weaklings. The Italian economy is actually more powerful than many realise and they have some formidable leaders.
Just my view but Putin would want Germany and Italy to move away from NATO first of all. As always I will.no doubt be proven wrong!
“bumbling lazy weaklings”? That would be the stereotypical view of some backward illiterates in some Northern European corners, Britain mostly, but not only. Those who are aiding the Nazi government in Ukraine basically. Same bed-fellows. The Italian economy as you say is a lot better than most think having a strong industrial base despite years of off-shoring since the mid 2000s, and quality-wise few if any can compete with Italian goods. Then, there is the personal wealth factor. Italians possess way more financial wealth deposited in the countries banking institutions than anyone in Europe, 3’rd highest in the world to be exact. Italy is a lot better suited to handle an impending economic crisis than all of Europe. I won’t even mention that we have the most advanced and productive agricultural economy probably in the entire world. To the detriment of the “Atlanticists”, Mario Draghi, the US stooge should be gone in a few weeks after the elections tomorrow and without any underhanded machinations coming out of the Quirinale, the Italian presidency, to resuscitate him, a major wind of change should come out of Italy that will seriously affect Bruxelles policy. Lest we forget, Russia has more political assets and commercial contacts in Italy than one can imagine and that is not to be taken lightly.
The problem with Frans is the political system that undermines the true party elected by the people and the refusal, up to now, to allow a right wing party, e.g. La Pen, to get a shot at government.
As you said the governmental structure is to large and expensive. I believe more than 50% of the French, work for the government in some form or another.
What concerns the Italians … it is their banking system and national debt. The banks are effectively Zombie Banks and will be the first to fail.
The National Debt of Italy is 152.6 % of GDB.
Current National Debt of Germany is 69.30%.
Can you see the difference?
In order to change a sitting government a revolution, or type of it, is required. I do not see an alternative solutions. Major vote of confidence call? I doubts this….
She is hot tho, so theres that
She’s average at best
Perhaps Raymond means ‘hot to trot’. I think we could allow that, right?
No argument here!
Gimme a break. She obviously very pretty and it also explains why she got the position, u think if Killary looked like that she wouldnt be president right now? Soyboys love to let their latent heterosexuality out by electing pretty, dumb things. See Ocasio Cortez. Some claim she ugly, fact is if she was ugly she would still be begging for tips behind the bar
As a US agent (French-American young leader), Macron, like Zelenski, will do as told. Against the basic interests of the country he represents ; it was called high treason, but not any more.
Normally, the German chancellor sets the guidelines. That’s what the German constitution says. he does not do it. why?
Not France l. They are one of the key foreign legions killing Russians in Ukraine and training troops.
France is no different from UK or US. It’s a vicious former colonial power that is right in there doing enormous evil. Just look at what they do in Africa.
France is as bad if not worse than the UK. A veneer of civilisation does not hide the stench of death on french hands. They just have more perfume.
I think it’s too late for any reproachment with Europe,if you look at what Putin,Medvedev and others in the political elite AND well informed Russian observers are saying Russia is over Europe. The future for Russia and the actual international community lies in cooperation in trade and security issues outside even the utterly corrupted UN.
I would be happy for the US to get out of NATO, the UN, the WHO, climate agreements, and any other foreign entanglements and to cease all foreign aid. Focus on becoming self-sufficient in energy, food and manufacturing. Fair trade agreements with other countries are fine, but otherwise, let’s keep ourselves to ourselves.
Would you be happy with that? Do you know how we would feel in the rest of the world!!? “Happy” would not be enough to describe it, ecstatic perhaps; or maybe we should even invent a new concept/word?
Haha, so well put. I will live with ecstatic for now.
Amen to your wish, Mary. I would love to see my country (the US) focus on its own innumerable problems and perhaps, in the process, recover some semblance of a virtuous society.
You in the USA will not be able to maintain your living standards, because you have been subsidized by the world for the last 77 years.
Going on your own will require a major reset and drop is living conditions.
Spot on Detlef. The world is de-dollarizing; countries are tired of being victims of a weaponized dollar. U.S. actions in response to the Ukraine crisis are only accelerating the trend. Pepe Escobar is covering this trend in his articles (http://thesaker.is) and on his Telegram channel. Additionally, the rest of the world doesn’t absolutely need the golden billion – the populations of the U.S., Europe, Japan, Australia, NZ, Canada, etc. They can sufficiently improve their lives through trade with the other 6-7 billion people on the planet. They will take all the dollars the U.S. has exported, trade them in for goods, and be gone, leaving us with piles of dollars. Peter Schiff illustrated this basic concept in his book “How an Economy Grows and Why it Crashes.”
The stock and housing market drops Larry mentions are only just beginning. The Fed has taken away the punchbowl…U.S. dollar M2 money supply growth was -2.5% on an annualized basis as of the Fed’s reported numbers through 01 August. We will get the numbers for the rest of August this coming Tuesday. The stock market and housing market need an ever-increasing supply of (inflationary) credit to provide and sustain a continual rise of stock prices. When you don’t have that, a crash is sure to follow. It can take anywhere from 6 weeks to 3 months or more for the drop in money supply growth to affect price levels. We are close.
Everything I am saying here is based in Austrian Economics and Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). For folks that want to learn more about money supply and how it affects price levels, check out David B’s blog on Substack (https://livebetternow.substack.com/p/fed-asset-growth-9-14-22). And check out works by Austrian Economists like Murray Rothbard, Ludwig von Mises, Fritz Malchup, etc. You can download electronic copies of their works for free from the Mises Institute (https://mises.org/books-library).
The truth is here on Larry’s blog but there is more of it “out there”. Set yourself free. Happy hunting!
While your assertion is true in a mean or average sense, it is far more our predatory financialist ruling class that has seen their wealth increase by stealing from the world than our ruled class. The peasantry of the Roman Empire got bread and circuses out of their empire. We in the American peasant analogue get taxed by our empire to subsidize our own replacement by an unending deluge of rootless foreign invaders who overwhelmingly become obedient serfs to our oligarchy.
The vast majority of the ruled class, especially those descended from the generation of our founding fathers, do not have a physical standard of living appreciably higher than if we had been simply left alone to develop internally as a republic rather than become a global empire. The extent that our ruled class has had its physical standard of living subsidized by cheap foreign goods has been more than offset by the destruction of the nationalist economic system by offshoring the industrial foundation of ruled class prosperity. If one considers ‘quality of life’ by including the intangibles like social stability and the sense of belonging one gets from intact families, intact homogeneous communities, and a culture that celebrates truth, decency, and achievement, then the current generation of Americans have by far the lowest quality of life in our history and we are still descending at breakneck speed. Our predatory alien ruling class has done much for which to be held to account.
Our reset is likely to have several stages, some of which will be very ugly even by planetary historical standards. The same internationalists who wanted the Morgenthau Plan for Germany after World War 2 have substantially reduced our capability to transition back to a semblance of economic sovereignty. Many of us want to live in a normal country again. The rest of the world shunning the Globalist American Empire will hopefully accelerate the process by which happens.
Yes to all of your points, Horace.
There is an old saying that bad money drives out good money. Similarly, it could be said that a contrived surplus of bad “citizens” fatally undermines the efforts of of “good”, traditionally virtuous citizens, enabled by a matrix of all of the positives that you identified to flourish and to self-perpetuate. This synergy has been sedulously undermined through the efforts of our hostile, power-hungry, sociopathic “leaders”, a catastrophe which had its origins in the 19th century, but has been hyper-empowered at several points since then, particularly in the first two decades of the 20th century.
Detlef, actually, US living standards have been falling for years now – US life expectancy after slowly decreasing for years is now falling rapidly (only precedent is USSR-Russia transition).
And yet the US oligarchy keeps running the gini up.
This level of societal instability most likely leads to collapse under massive social unrest (Marie Antoinette moments?) as the US oligarchs flee to Aukland, leaving an indebted dysfunctional disintegrating society fragmenting into multiple warring mini-nations (while the rest of the world funnels resources to keep the multitudinous mini-wars boiling – let the Texans fight the Floridians to the last Texan – hmmm, where did I hear something similar!).
Or Biden could have a lucid moment before meeting his maker, and cancels the War with Russia as repentance.
But I wouldn’t bet on it (I would bet on a stash of gold).
Timescales are the question – famines occur in spring….
IF we truly had a representative democracy, our Republic would have never grown into this globalist nightmare. We have/had the resources, to be self sufficient. The politicians are owned by the war mongering military complex who would not make quite enough Billions without starting/ maintaining wars all over the globe
Why do people call the US a Democracy? It is NOT a Democracy, it is a Constitutional Republic. Our fore fathers explicitly stated they were against a Democracy! Now having said that, we are now currantly headed towards COMMUNISM! The world is being turned upside down, all because we all have greedy, power hungry governments!
With all due respect, these two terms are not mutually exclusive. Republic is a form of government where power is held by the people and their elected representatives, and there is no monarch as a head of state while a democracy is where a system of government is either by the whole population OR all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.
That’s why UK is a monarchy and a democracy and the US is a republic with an elected president and a democracy. I would argue that our system is like elected monarchy of 18th century, since president has enormous executive power, with limitations that Congress stopped enforcing long time ago.
But I am agreeing with you in that the political system is designed to act as an illusion of influence for the voters, who are endlessly promised pie in the sky.
Germany should drop out of NATO, drop out of the EU, sign a peace treaty with Russia and officially end WWII, and start printing marks again, backed by gold and real economy.
The destruction of British industry, like that of America, began in the mid to late 1960’s.
What German Gold? That is in American vaults and they battle to get it back….
Excellent direction Germany needs to take.
What “Germany” are you people talking about? Germany is a US colony, run by a Muppet Show consisting mostly of teachers who decided to play politics. Just look who runs their army. Germany is not sovereign, it does not have a constitution and their electoral system is illegal, as stated by their own highest court. This suicide mission against Russia should be proof enough already that this country is remotely controlled and has no saying in any important geopolitical decisions. Something similar has happened to Ukraine in 2014. That has to be more than obvious to anyone by now.
Larry, Serbia is not a EU member, and never will be admitted nor do the people want to, but the US has ordered the Serbian political leaders as well as the EU leadership that Serbia must remain on the “road to the EU,” which means accepting all kinds of blackmails and implementation of humiliating policies, and all in the context of terrible pressure to accept the loss of 15% of its territory by recognizing the self declared independence (read: submission to the US) of Kosovo where the biggest US military base outside the US is located called Bondsteel.
Thanks. Brain flatulence.
It would be nice to think an eventual detente is possible. In Ukraine now I think Russia is demonstrating that she is fighting the combined West, and that that fight is existential for her. As Russia escalates I think the West needs to decide if their decades old desire to dismantle and plunder Russia is existential enough for them to destroy all life on earth.
At this point I even believe that Russia is very much capable to nuke the collective west without any meaningful counter strike from them. The west has been bluffing all along and because they are not capable to accept their own defeat they double down knowing that they will lose more and that there is nothing they can do to avoid defeat anyway. US has no working air defense to counter even old strategic weapons. That is why they all of the sudden changed their threats into pledges that there are no winners in a nuclear standoff. Just remember a few days earlier, as they vowed consequences. Mr. Putins remark that Russia is not bluffing has changed everything. US knows they have to back down now or they will not survive the next round of escalations. They even may already know that Russia will be the winner in the case of a nuclear attack. NATO, US, EU have proven many times that they are in no state to face even minor economic crises let alone a military conflict.
Indeed this is one adventure the US and it’s Vassals are going to lose and lose in a big way.
We are bound to witness a resurgence of “terrorism” in countries that signal their intention of leaving NATO. Like in the 60s, 70s and 80s, Gladio and other US/NATO secret armies in Europe will make sure there is innocent blood on the streets to make sure politicians stay the course.
Larry, you wrote: “Germany’s ability to export product to the United States will weaken because of the price of the dollar (…)”.
I actually think it is the other way around: with a strong dollar, EU products are cheaper to buy for US … if only EU were able to produce them.
The division of the acreage of what was Ukraine has many advantages with many nations on and near the borders. Only Hungary and Serbia are current friends of Russia, and Czechia has asked for redemption. The Kosovo issue may be resolved for Serbia and Hungary has territorial benefits. The others have acted against Russia and may already yearn to be friends again. Italy will have a new government in a few weeks. All these neighbors see how the wind blows.
Allowing them to divide the western Ukraine is an excellent way for Russia to avoid being peacekeeper while the enlarged nations will be happy to take on that job. It will be a tough one considering many nazi’s will go west when they realize the jig is up. But Russia will provide them with the tools they need because the kilometers just keep adding up separating those that wish to cause Russia harm. Long ignored peace treaties will flower and have teeth. Trade will be encouraged and demonstrate Russia’s real goal.
The other forgotten aspect is the EU is broke and acting like dictators toward the people that didn’t elect them. Bad show. Italy will become a friend shortly. But the financial assistance provided by Russia and China will assure these nations of a head start in the new Europe. The US is abandoning its own people to screw Russia and is as broke as the EU. The list of other nations that have not behaved at all friendly to Russia is the rest of map of Europe. These are where boot licking will come back into style. For some it will come with a very bad taste.
We hope we survive these interesting times.
Should Europe break with the United States, the Empire will retaliate with colour revolutions.
“ Should Europe break with the United States, the Empire will retaliate with colour revolutions.”
But surely that truck can it work in Europe, since the bait used in the colour revolutions is the promise of social progress and to be more like what European countries are like. We’re basically moving in the opposite direction: we had our social libertarianism, our consumerism and our parliamentary democracies already, no room for promises anymore.
Sorry.
* But surely that trick cannot work in Europe
That trick started working precisely in Europe with the October 5, 2000 so called “democratic revolution” in Serbia and the CIA sponsored outfit Otpor, whose leader Srdja Popović travels the world to structure new color revolutions for the empire!
I meant to say synthetic revolutions (a more general term), the US is the master of that game, and the bait would be whatever the Empire deem convenient … gas and/or oil back, getting rid of stupid leaders, etc. After all synthetic revolutions are waaay cheaper than using other means.
They could try, but they’d fail. My sense is that the US is exhausted and almost broke. Also, that rigged election drained Washington DC of legitimacy in much of the world.
Countries of Europe, if they want to survive intact, have no alternative but to leave NATO. But they’re held hostage by debt via the international banksters. As many people have said all along, this is really a war on Europe, particularly Germany. Germany’s best move is to leave both NATO and the EU, re-institute the Mark, default on loans, align with SCO, and build an industrial powerhouse using cheap Russian energy. This is precisely what the international banksters, via their .gov slaves in US and GB, are trying to prevent. Germany has kept the majority of the EU alive for decades. If Germany leaves, the rest of the EU will fall apart and will likely default on debt.
I forget which CNO (Wadkins??) who, when asked what he thought was the greatest risk to National Security, said it was the national debt. Today, we can identify many additional internal risks to our National Security. Many of those additional risks are now insanely paid for through additional debt.
I disagree with you and others that this is a war on Europe.
It is my opinion that the USA and Europe miscalculated on the Russian economy and the conflict in Ukraine, and thus made a mistake or wrong decision.
What you now see is the consequences of their decision and the fact that they are doubling down, still delusional, and refusing to see straight ahead.
It can be both. They thought the war was a simple application of sanctions. they were woefully wrong and are clueless what to do
The EU is a dictatorship anyway. It only exists, because it distributes huge amounts of free money to their so called “members” for their obedience. People were never asked if they wanted to be part of the EU, it was all done on the corrupt political level, where it was easy to sway anyone to sell out their country for little bit of personal wealth. Nevertheless, EU has opened markets and investments for the “rich” members to the “poor” new members. They wiped out most of the small businesses and gained huge market shares for big corporations and businesses. Look everywhere in the EU. You will find mostly German products, now produced locally, on the supermarket shelves. EU is a big lie. It was needed to keep the poor European countries alive and give the rich ones more opportunities for growth and takeovers. EU is financially doomed as is the US. They live on borrowed money and in that matter borrowed time. They are bankrupted and won’t allow anyone to state this officially or even hint at that.
I don’t think so.
As Mr Powers would say “that boat has flown”.
It is more likely that Europe will break with Europe. NATO will hang in there even if down to the UK, Iceland, Canada and an unheated barn in Belgium.
The lights and taps are going OFF, it is hard to see any Russian leader seeing a political/military advantage in turning them back on anytime soon (economics don’t come into it).
Russia is looking East, America is pivoting to Asia, most of the rest of the World is waiting for a new port or a high speed train to the silk road.
All this while Europe may rebrand brown coal as organic Tesla enablers.
We are witness to a generational change, things are going to be different. Some parts of Europe may come out of this with less hurt than others, however many will be in for a hard time ahead.
This conflict will end, we all agree on that.
In the next week we should find out how we get there and at what cost.
You said “The United States is facing its own looming economic disaster.”
Garbage. The USA (Rockefellers) is making out like bandits.
They are getting > 5x normal for their natural gas.
They will take something like one-trillion dollars off the stupid Europeans.
How does this help the US? They are still bankrupted. I don’t see them paying anything back.
So the Rockefellers get rich. What has that to do with the > 125 trillion the whole US is indebted with. This ponzi sheme is clearly not working. It helps if you have an army and you can threaten anyone who is bugging you about your money or the debt you amassed.
The world is dividing into two systems now. At some point the west will get detached from reality and no one will be willing to use fake money like the USD or EUR to make business. People know that already, they just don’t have any alternative, but that is slowly changing.
Hold your horses folks, The US is no more likely to pull out of Europe than the Russians pulling out of Crimea. Happy to be wrong.
I’m not sure I understand you… the comparison makes no sense, the people of Crimea have very explicitly expressed their desire to join Russia, I have no doubts about that. Finally, the native language of Ukrainians and Russians there is Russian. While Europe does not belong to the USA in any way, except for forcing the paradigm of fear of Stalin, which has not been in force for at least 60 years. After all, Crimea is just one mediocre island, and Europe is a continent.
I think his point is that the US considers Europe a colony and assumes it will always be under Washingtons thumb.
We all know how the Swamp treats traitors.
As long as the Pipeline of current and future German politicians is filled with Atlanticist vassalage is assured.
The only non-Atlanticist parties ( AfD and Die Linke ) have been effectively cast as extremist wackos.
If the current governing coalition falls; then the likely winner will be the Christian Democrats whose leader is Merz. Merz made/makes his money from Blackrock.
Anyone really believe Merz will break with Blackrock ?
A while back there was this bloke called Adolf who was labeled an extremist whacko but he did all right at the polls when Deutschland was in dire straights.
The USSR fell apart with unseemly haste, to the disbelief of many of us who witnessed it. The same shall happen to the EU with the same shocking rapidity.
As for NATO, it’s difficult to imagine the US can meld umpteen piddling little armies from different cultures and languages, many of whom hate other members more than the Russians, into a cohesive and effective fighting force. It is a far cry from the days when a few allies faced off against the “Soviet menace” at the West German border.
Frankly, most European NATO troops are parade ground soldiers and like the UK, barely fit for guarding the Palace from tourists wearing centuries old fancy dress.
As regards Serbia and others on the “road to EU membership”, I think they’ll find its turned into the Road to Oblivion before they ever get to sign away their sovereignty.
Blackrock will collapse with the USD.
I also think that all this could have a faster denouement than we imagine, it may happen anannounced and at a time when things may be looking as if they’re in the mend, like those terminal patients that die the day after they muster enough strength to joke with their carers.
As to the matter of European leadership, it may be that the present crop gets quickly shunted aside to have the next tier take their place in an attempt to calm us down (yes, Starmer is on for a huge chance), but when things prove unsustainable people we’ve never heard of will take over. Water runs to the lowest place.
And presto, here’s what the BBC had to say about the Labour Party just today, Saturday. There is an unmistakable change of tone in the reporting, they know the tories are a spent force and they’ve started the process of softening up the public to vote for Starmer en masse.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63008527
And scum always rises to the top.
I have another question. Do you think that it is possible that politicians like Habeck and Baerbock are not just enthusiast Atlanticists but remote-controlled assets of the USA? Could it go that far?
Baerbock absolutely. It’s not direct control, that would be too obvious. She got her masters from the London School of Economics, a Fabian Society institution. The nerds that graduate from there are at the pinnacle of globalist hegemony. Just look: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_School_of_Economics#Notable_people
Habeck and Baerbock plus Von Der Leyen are fanatical devotees of Atlanticism. They are true believers. It’s unlikely that they need to be extorted or bought outright.
Just look at their backgrounds – from their youth they’ve been carefully cultivated.
I agree with Exile and Randolorian, but I will finetune my question a bit: is it possible that Habeck and Baerbock are actually receiving orders from Washington? Remember that, in the seventies, the Stasi managed to have a spy (Günther Guillaume) as the personal secretary of the then German chancellor Willy Brandt. I’m sure the CIA can do better… These German Greens hate their own country so much that they are up to anything.
perhaps Gaulliome had long been known to the CIA and BND in the Chancellery. They just waited for the right time to get rid of Chancellor Willy Brand because he wanted to cuddle too much with the Russians. That must have been a thorn in the side of the Anglo-American financial bloc. Germany and Russia in a few years will do something together? That is not how it works. Helmut Schmidt followed. Later he discovered Soviet SS-20 missiles and convinced with NATO’s double-track decision. He was Atlantic. No secret.
…..is it possible that Habeck and Baerbock are actually receiving orders from Washington ?…….
Orders ? No
5 eyes type Briefings ? yes
I think what’s a more interesting question would be, if Trump gets a second term will he take the US out of NATO ?
he threatened it once before but now, from his more isolationist position, he has plenty of material to posit that the swamp have brought this calamity about
loathsome though I find him I think he is a politician of fact/reality Vs ideology
Simon, No. The US president is not that powerful in reality. Trump was easily neutralized by the bureaucracy – presumably will be again.
Just note US foreign policy consistency over say the last forty years irregardless of who holds the nominal title of President. And actually of most domestic policy, which basically provides the donor class what it pays for, while the voters needs have negligible statistical correlation with policy or law – there was a study.
No he won’t. It’s because he will not run the country, even if he will be the elected leader. They are all puppets. Even Trump changed right after he won. There was not much left of the things he wanted to do. Like someone has put a spell on him. So definitely not, he will not dissolve or leave NATO. It is not up to him. JFK has nationalized the USD and was shot for that.
Trump or Biden, they don’t make any decisions, they don’t run the country. Their only purpose is to make people believe they decide who is in charge. Democracy is a lie too, it never existed. Only in Switzerland there is kinda democracy going on, as they ask their people for their vote when important decisions have to be made.
“The history of these kinds of economic upheaval is littered with the corpses of politicians that insisted on pushing policies that hurt their voters. Germany’s Wiemar Republic’s failure paved the way for the rise of Adolf Hitler to power. I am not suggesting a new Hitler is waiting in the wings, but I do believe that the power now wielded by the Greens across Europe will be curtailed or even snuffed out.”
As gar as Germany is concerned, you don’t have to go back that far. The German Greens and the SPD formed a coalition government once before. They were in power during the break-up of Yougoslavia which a part of their electorate never forgave them. Then they destroyed much of the social security net which led to an early end of their second term – and 16 years of Angela Merkel.
It took them about 18 years to wait for new voters to grow up who don’t remember what they did back then first-hand. Polling data suggests that the Greens still have lots of backing among their electorate – but many old-school Greens are leaving the party because they will not stand for the revival of the coal and nuclear power plants which the government Greens are pushing through.
You are absolutely right: they are going to disappear for another generation, or two. They served their purpose. Friedrich Merz (CDU) is eager to take over from Scholz. And he is no improvement as far as policies towards Russia are concerned.
Good article Mr. Johnson. I have been thinking the same for months. I could be wrong; believe the other objective of russia is to force germany away from the usa and into the BRICS sphere of influence. It is the classic landpowers vs the seapowers scenario of the book 1984.
In my opinion Russia and the BRICS are run by testosterone and the collective west is run by estrogen which explains how things are run in each sphere of influence
Since the collapse of communism and the rise of Putin Germany and Russia have been establishing closer economic ties. This goes against the strategy of the USA which is to keep Russia and Germany apart. Germany is the only western country that I know of that has not deindustrialized itself like the other countries and still makes real goods of very high quality.
The final straw I believe was the gazprom 2 pipeline project bringing gas into Germany that bypassed the Ukraine. The ironic thing about gazprom 2 is that merkel in germany wanted it built so they cut turn off their nuclear power plants. This the USA could not allow and they are using Ukraine as a proxy in this war to keep Germany down and stuck in the mud which is the utopia of the German Green party which are in control of Germany at this time. Cannot substantiate this ; believe the green party in Germany probably originated from the former East German communist party and stasi. The goal of the greens I believe is to deindustrialize Germany and take Germany off of the world state permanently by turning it into a 3rd world backwater.
In terms of economic prosperity Russia and the BRICS have far more to offer Germany and Eastern Europe than the USA has. The only way Russian gas can be replaced with far more expensive LNG which will make Germany economically not competitive with the world. In terms of goods trade with Russia and the BRICS using sound currency and short railway lines would make more sense to them trading with the USA which only currency which is know not backed by either oil or gas and is losing more of its value every day.
When russia went into syria in 2015 they ensured that another gas pipeline would not be built from the mid east into europe.
Germany and Russia are like super magnets with opposite charges. They want to pull together and join but are being prevented by forces that are doing everything possible to keep them apart. When this force that is trying to keep them apart and not let them get together is finally neutralized; their destinies together which would make them both stronger and happier will be finally fulfilled.
There are many German leaders in industry that know understand that what is going on is not what it appears to be and in time Germany could take appropriate action to avoid sleeping in the snow. The only way that they can do this is to throw off the USA occupation and join the BRICS. I do believe that Putin and the USA are well aware of this.
As for us that live in north american we need to take our own action or we will be sleeping in the snow also sooner or later under this insane neo-con fed banker blackrock woke alliance from both the demo-repub parties running the country who want to make us regular folks poor destitute cricket eating slaves who own nothing. My opinion it will take far more than the repubs sweeping the midterms to change anything. We should be as self sufficient as russia and given some time and sound true america first leadership in a sound way which has not existed for many years become a great country again
https://www.wcvb.com/article/electric-bills-could-increase-64-percent-this-winter-in-massachusetts-2022-2033/41312993
If any of you are into bible reading at all; read revelation 18 kjv. You may find it interesting as the mystery babylon it describes is a mystery consortium of bakers and corporations controlling world goverments for their own ends. They use v 23 sorceries which translated using a concordance means street and pharma drugs to control the populations. i believe that this is the time in history that we are at and it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out whom babylon is.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%2018&version=KJV
back during soviet times there’s someone called duduman who escaped from communist state and he said he saw a dream where US will be destroyed by surprise nuclear attack from the submarines hidden in east and west coast. back then i found this to be ridiculous as SLBM do not need submarine positions close to CONUS. But now there’s plenty of nuke delivery system including cruise missiles and hypersonics and there’s this advantage of close and fast delivery to achieve surprise.
now connecting this with revelation 13 and babylon destroyed by fire , it make sense
Chess rather than poker… a brilliant summary of events.
Tomorrow, general elections will be held in Italy to determine the composition of a new parliament and Prime Minister. In these elections, there are 2 political movements which are openly anti-EU and anti-NATO, Italia Sovrana e Popolare and ItalExit. If they receive considerable support and vote-rigging does not become a major factor, then the winds of change will start to take place. To underscore the importance of this electoral contest and the meaning it has for the rest of Europe, the EU’s Von der Lying b*tch in Brussels has contemptuously warned that if a favorable(to EU) electoral outcome does not come out of the ballot boxes, the EU possesses the necessary measures to force whatever future Italian government to accept its policies. In essence, the EU is saying that they do not want another sovereign government amongst its ranks like Hungary’s Orban who they are attempting to kick out.
I don’t think that will happens. Might be a marginal war-welfare related could be octroyed to the people.
Larry, when I read the beginning of your text, the first person that came to mind was Jürgen Möllemann. German politician who is a minister in Helmut Kohl’s government. He was a member of the FDP, a party that then played the role that the Green Party plays today. Also, he was the president of one of the most popular German football clubs – Schalke 04. Möllemann was also the president of the German-Arab Society and in that capacity he often commented on the Middle East conflict between Israel and the Palestinians, criticizing the Israeli authorities. He was actually the most influential German public figure with a pro-Palestinian stance. Möllemann was an avid skydiver and often organized his jumps for election campaigns. On June 5, 2003, he jumped with a parachute. His reserve parachute failed to open, leading to an uncontrolled crash into a field near Marl-Loemühle Airport. He died from serious injuries. As later investigations showed, the automatic deployment device he was carrying, which would have automatically activated the reserve parachute, was not engaged. Sorry for my bad english.
In 2010 Habeck wrote a book called “Patriotismus: Ein linkes Plädoyer (Patriotism: A Left-Wing Plea)”
Inside you’ll find this quote:
“Vaterlandsliebe fand ich stets zum Kotzen. Ich wusste mit Deutschland nichts anzufangen und weiß es bis heute nicht. (I always found patriotism to suck. I didn’t know what to do with Germany and still don’t.)”
All you need to know about german Politicians in general and the Greens in particular.
Larry: As always, another superb post from you. But this raises a fundamental question : can Russia supply oil and gas to Europe even if it wants to? Looks like it has already acquired stable and friendly customers for oil (India/China/Turkey, etc.) and gas (Iran/China/Turkey, etc.), and to whom it is supplying all its hydrocarbons. It will require quite an effort to generate more supplies for, say, Nordstream 2 even if that should reopen.
And also, what is the guarantee that any future EU governments won’t resume their Russophobic rhetoric and actions all over again? Indian/Iranian/Chinese/Turkish government officials and politicians don’t go around calling Putin names or cancelling Russian writers/trees/cats.
I think the euro, gbp and usd will be valued at 1:1:1 and then be revalued, but only bank accounts and digital transactions. This would drag everybody straight into digital currency and build one hell of a trading block.
Europa no va a romper nada con USA sino que USA impondrá el fascismo en Europa, porque es más fácil gestionar un líder fuerte que 20 líderes. Se les impondrá una falsa religion como elemento motivador, ver a los Nazis, la WEF lo considera su gran objetivo para lavar cerebros, y desde tiempo atrás, patrocinándola; en septiembre, en Astaná y con el Papa ahí presente. El patriarca Kirill no se presentó a esa trampa.
Una encuesta (que se puede extrapolar a otros según sus creencias) encuentra que el 5% de los encuestados en España dicen ser católicos al 100% (unos 2.350.000) sobre un total de 47 millones de supuestos católicos, de ese 5% sólo el 2% (47.000) son jóvenes comprometidos a defender sus creencias; los dispuestos a combatir por su patria no llegan a 3000.
Que quiero decir? Que en la atea, pagana y mundana Europa, la gente dispuesta y comprometida a defenderla no llega al 5% del total encuestado, y si restamos a los que están por debajo de los 40 años (y que esten sanos) es todavia menor.
El grado de motivación de la población por la lucha de tus creencias es mínimo.
Esto indica cero motivación y me hace pensar que Europa está derrotada sin luchar, Ideológicamente están muertos.
Europe and especially Germany are acting as if they were a colony of the US. As a first step towards independence it would be necessary to get rid of the ruling political class, the countless NGOs and the guys in the media which all are controlled by the US in one way or the other.
The vast majority of my German fellows still believe what they are told and even if reality says otherwise they won’t change their mind. So I don’t see this change will happen in Germany. State elections in Niedersachsen are scheduled for the 9th of October. According to the polls the Greens will win more than twice the seats they had won in 2017 and the party where chancellor Scholz is from may have minor losses. I think this proves my point.
Things may change if the economic situation in Germany develops towards a Sri Lanka szenario. Until it is too late we Germans tend to rally round to the current leaders if things are getting ugly. I dearly hope that we are not sliding into Weimar 2.0 were the people decided that someone must take revenge on politicans which betrayed them.
So the chances are slim that Germany will break with the US in the forseeable future and therefore also the EU won’t do it.
“As a first step towards independence it would be necessary to get rid of the ruling political class, the countless NGOs and the guys in the media which all are controlled by the US in one way or the other.”
It is emulative to try to “control” the messengers in hope of controlling the message – a component/derivative of no man/woman, no problem gambits.
A pertinent “case study” to consider may lie in the searches for a usable past which some believe facilitated the construct “Federal Republic of Germany”, most “sources” not being in the “public domain”, but perhaps a useful entry portal could be Robert G. Moeller’s book, War Stories, published by the University of California Press, ISBN 0-520-23910-5 published in 2003, re-engineering not being an option since lateral change is a constant, sometimes rendered as time and tide wait for no man/woman.
The Green Party in Germany is elected by the well off university educated middle class doing office jobs working in government, education, media and large corporation management. As long as this demographic is not affected by the economy the greens will keep their strengths. Most green voters are satisfied with the current policy.
The official narrative in Germany is that the sanctions are Putins fault and people believe that, because they are too brainwashed. Protest will first come from the working class and lower classes, but these people have no voice in public discourse.
There is also a big difference between east and west Germany. East Germans will mobilize much quicker for protests as they did 1989 and east Germans have a far more differentiated view on the Ukraine crisis. One has to keep in mind that west germans have been exposed to anti Russian propaganda since 1914 more or less non stop. It is so easy to trigger anti russian and anti Putin sentiments in them, that they are unable to have any objective or rational approach towards the current situation. Russia bad is a sufficient explanation for everything.
I think the west German middle class will follow their leaders to the bitter and, as they did in 1945. While marching with rainbow flags into the abyss, they feel morally superior, smart and educated. Same people, different ideology. Being a German myself it hurts to see this development. I work at a west German university and I am surrounded by people, whose inability to use their brain in this matter is only surpassed by their arrogance towards everyone else.
I think Germany will fall deep and will have a very hard landing, but I also know that when being down we will pull ourselves together and build up a thriving nation from scratch again, as we did so often in history. This however will take a few decades.
that’s the way it is. correctly described.
Deedl
Well said – agreed with your general description.
Маннечка
@Neiti1525
Irretrievable losses of 🇺🇦:
KIA 61K
Those who died as a result of injury 17 K
Missing (~90% KIA unidentified or unclaimed) 32K
KIA Territorial Defense (TRO) ~21K
POW >14k
Retired by injury >49K
Total UA irretrievable losses is 192K
or 129K KIA+14K POW+49K retired by injury.
Маннечка
@Neiti1525
Irretrievable losses of 🇺🇦:
KIA 61K
Those who died as a result of injury 17 K
Missing (~90% KIA unidentified or unclaimed) 32K
KIA Territorial Defense (TRO) ~21K
POW >14k
Retired by injury >49K
Total UA irretrievable losses is 192K
or 129K KIA+14K POW+49K retired by injury.
Possible to confirm ?
There was a recent “leaked” document that claimed 191K casualties. That number included injured, but it is unknow if lightly injured counted. Recently Shoigu mentioned death count on both sides. I can’t remember the exact number he said, but it was over 60K KIA.
“Up to this point Europe has embraced the delusion that Russia cannot function economically without a European market.”
One of the more salient delusions upon which the “economic” delusion has been predicated since the mid 1980’s, is that “The Soviet Union” and subsequently The Russian Federation wished to become “European”; some of more a “cultural” disposition deeming that these truths to be “self-evident” since the times of Peter the Great, whilst some of a more orthodox persuasion deeming these truths to be “self-evident” fron “Russia’s” adoption of Orthodox Christianity.
These were the chosen/constructed interpretations of “The West” which were not overtly challenged by some in “The Soviet Union”, “The Soviet Union” never being homogenous throughout its life including during “The Great Patriotic War”, or The Russian Federation until 2007 – a component catalyst for “The war in Georgia” in 2008 –
since contextually such beliefs/illusions had utility and although diminishing, it was understood that such beliefs/illusions’ utilities would continue to have half-lives.
Some may view the punishment of “Europe” by “The United States of America” as affording opportunities of increasing the complicities of “The United States of America” in their own transcendence – a force multiplier without requirement of intervention -, “The United States of America” being a linear matrix of coercive social relations as a function of purposes, not restricted to a geographical entity from Alaska to the “Mexican border” which is self-misrepresented as “The United States of America” which has never been homogenous or united.
As to your interlocutor’s question “what would be the practical implications if Europe in general and Germany in particular were to break with the US in order to find a European peace and economic framework including Russia?”, initially it is necessary to define the terms of reference including but not restricted to :
What are the definitions of “Europe” and how are the definitions of “Europe” facilitated ?
What are the definitions of “Germany” and how are the definitions of “Germany” facilitated ?
What are the definitions of “The United States of America” and how are the definitions of “The United States of America” facilitated ?
whilst your interlocutor apparently remains immersed in the illusions that it is self-evident that “Russia” would agree to and help facilitate ” if Europe in general and Germany in particular were to break with the US in order to find a European peace and economic framework including Russia?”, despite today referenda are taking place in 4 “oblasts” which are presently in “Ukraine”, which will be considered by representatives of The Russian Federation in the near future.
Watts up with that ran an article predictating a cold winter for Europe this year.
Cold hungry people have a historical track record of otherthrowing their current regimes.
Cold hungry people do this because they have nothing to lose.
George Bernard Shaw quoted, “the end of civilisation is only three meals away”.
“otherthrowing”
Overthrowing is not transcending, since overthrowing contains a varying mix of emulations.
“George Bernard Shaw quoted, “the end of civilisation is only three meals away”.
The gentleman had no practical experience and hence he emulated a derivative of apres nous le deluge.
Dear Larry, I love reading your articles each morning. But I must take issue with the sentence ‘the age of the United States Colossus is nearing its end’.
It is not the United States Colossus, but it is the Colossus of the Deep State, of the International Oligarchy, or of the Anglo-American Empire – what ever people want to call it. It’s not the United States, but it is those traitors in the United States who wish to be a part of this one-world government.
Just as Russia is under attack by NATO, so United States is also under attack by these same people – who use drugs, crime and sex to corrupt our youth. Yes, Germany should leave NATO, but so should the United States.
Just as we wish to stop the destruction of Russia, we also wish to save the United States of America.
“Just as we wish to stop the destruction of Russia, we also wish to save the United States of America.”
Whom do you believe/wish are included in we, and what are that you contend the we wish to save?
Our enemy is not Russia, our enemy is Hollywood. For example think back to 1962. Who the hell does Kennedy send to Moscow to talk with Khrushchev? Not some pointy-headed eastern liberal establishment know-it-all. No, he sent Robert Frost, a real American. It’s going to be a long war, it’s a cultural war.
or does the city of london control wash dc?
Good points Gerald, add in an educational system which delivers ignorance.
A reproachment between Europe and Russia is absolutely unthinkable, even if it had been for the better for the continent.
I live in Europe and the amount of Russophobia that the media, the politicians, the so called “intellectuals”, the scholar system, etc. have pounded on Russia and Russians is so off the charts that there is absolutely no way we could back-off now, the general public would never understand it.
We have painted ourselves into a deadly corner, spitting at the Russians for years, decades I would argue, systematically ignoring and brushing off their concerns, we have sold the idea that Russians are a retrograded nation, that there is nothing to see there, we have superbly ignored the thousands of civilians who were murdered in Donbass as worthless shit, and now we have basically painted their President as the reincarnation of Hitler.
I obviously don’t believe any of that stuff, I have been to Russia many times, I know Russians are absolutely nothing like what they are being described as… but I see around me that almost everyone swallows that crap as if it was the ultimate truth, because we have truly independent newspapers and honest journalists right…
So no, I don’t see Europe getting in bed with Russia anytime soon, all our political “elites” and “intellectuals” have been formatted by US think tanks and they are simply unable to think otherwise.
I also don’t think the Russians will forgive us anytime soon and God knows they are right on this! We don’t deserve their pardon, at least not until we have eaten loads of shit and crawled to their feet begging for mercy.
“absolutely unthinkable”
If you find unpleasant bending to be “exhausting” you have achieved your “purpose” through absolute assumptions.
If you don’t find unpleasant bending to be “exhausting” you precluded your “purpose” through absolute assumptions.
If your target audience find unpleasant bending to be “exhausting” then irrespective of your purpose you have precluded it, and hence you were complicit in your “exhaustion” by the effort of writing :
“I live in Europe and the amount of Russophobia that the media, the politicians, the so called “intellectuals”, the scholar system, etc. have pounded on Russia and Russians is so off the charts that there is absolutely no way we could back-off now, the general public would never understand it.
We have painted ourselves into a deadly corner, spitting at the Russians for years, decades I would argue, systematically ignoring and brushing off their concerns, we have sold the idea that Russians are a retrograded nation, that there is nothing to see there, we have superbly ignored the thousands of civilians who were murdered in Donbass as worthless shit, and now we have basically painted their President as the reincarnation of Hitler.
I obviously don’t believe any of that stuff, I have been to Russia many times, I know Russians are absolutely nothing like what they are being described as… but I see around me that almost everyone swallows that crap as if it was the ultimate truth, because we have truly independent newspapers and honest journalists right…
So no, I don’t see Europe getting in bed with Russia anytime soon, all our political “elites” and “intellectuals” have been formatted by US think tanks and they are simply unable to think otherwise.
I also don’t think the Russians will forgive us anytime soon and God knows they are right on this! We don’t deserve their pardon, at least not until we have eaten loads of shit and crawled to their feet begging for mercy.”
in reflection of Mr. Shakespeare’s observation of an exhalation of wind signifying nothing – at least to your target audience which includes yourself, thereby illustrating the “power of American propaganda.” and why Mr. Rove and others were “mis-informed”.
+100 hat tips!
I see things the other way around – Europe wanted to distance itself from US but the Ukraine event has forced it to ally much much closer.
Start with the big event of the 21st century – the eclipse of the US as unipolar leaders and its replacement by a multipolar world lead by China or more likely a 2-pole world that barely interacts (and then perhaps a China unipolar world after 2050).
Seems pretty clear to me that Europe has long wanted some independence from US, and in particular the chance to trade with all sides once the world breaks down into US trading block and China trading block.
Attempts at creating an EU Defence force, NS2 and the Russian gas dependency, battles to keep Huawei as a network supplier for 5G and to some extent discussions about extending OBOR into Europe; all signs that Europe was pushing for some independence.
Mayhem in Ukraine brings Europe back into Nato and the US clutches.
When there is any doubt about this we will hear how Russia is rampaging its way through Ukraine and on its way to invade the west. In the meantime the US has won and is happy for us to hear how clever its Ukrainian pals have been. (yeah I know).
So Ukraine has meant a big US victory in planning for the 2 polar world.
The downside is that every other country in the world can now see what is happening. When Saudi attempts to join BRICS you know the world is losing faith in US leadership.
The problem goes deeper, back to world war 1. If England and France have the choice between a free Germany or a Germany “occupied” by the US, they would even today prefer the latter. So, what the US is doing does not only please the US, but also Franc and England because they still fear a powerful Germany.
Let’s sum up: Russia fears to become extinct by the US military.
Germany is in a romantic state, where fight against the climate change is our highest stake.
England is weaker than ever, in whatever you take: Millitairy, economy.
France is concerned about inner peace, with people going to street against poverty.
And Italy will vote for the fratelli d Italia, a very nationalistic movement. Just look for a translation of the Italian anthem.
To me it looks like: The whole world is like an Italian opera. I just hope that we will have enough to eat and no nukes starting.
“Germany’s ability to export products to the United States will weaken because of the price of the dollar…”
Help me here: a strong dollar should make German exports more, not less, attractive.
What am I missing?
I thought Larry was referring to a strong dollar relative to the euro. If you can buy two euros with one dollar, for example, then German exports to the US would be more attractive as you point out, all other things being equal. I don’t follow his argument on that point.
I think it should say “gas” or “energy” instead of “the dollar”. Production costs will increase significantly making final products uncompetitive (which reduces ability to export them).
The question is somewhat misleading. The problem with Europe is not that it is a lap dog to the US. The problem with Europe is the same as the problem with the US: our leaders suck! Our elected officials don’t give a rat’s ass about their citizens. They are interested in enriching themselves and currying favor with the power elite. As pointed out a few articles ago, the power elite has changed in the US as it has changed in Europe (at a minimum in Britain). Alexander Dugin wrote about this.
https://katehon.com/en/article/united-states-court-against-ideology-progress
So yes, one can draw analogies with Wiemar Germany. And one can also blame the Versailles Treaty which set up the injustice that led to WW2 and the further injustices of that war.
Unlikely, in my view, EU will disintegrate or break from the US any time soon. Already the Germans are talking about expanding NATO to not just Ukraine, but Moldova and smaller states in the Balkans that will make the EU more unwieldy. NATO states are asking for even more US troops. As they say, when you are in a ditch stop digging.
Or are they being told to ask for more troops?
What smaller states in the Balkans? Moldova includes Transnistria, that has Russian troops in it. Good luck including that in NATO.
We are at the point of considering what happens when Ukraine, border to border, loses to Russian Federation? I think that is where this excellent discussion goes.
For instance, US’s Military Industrial & Government Complex, because the US is the chief funder of NATO, is the chief supplier of arms to NATO. No arms to NATO, no contracts, no Washington, DC loot. The mind reels.
NATO has lost air dominance to Russia, clearly, & without that ground battles cannot be fought. Loss of financial monopoly power combined with loss of military dominance, changes the EU political calculus. A seismic shift is happening in the EU. Bullying cannot work, past EU arrogance leads to pay backs.
Or, what happens when Russia requires NATO to move off its border to the US’s MIC?
More things open up, or shutdown. For sure dementia Biden & masters are leaderless, rudderless, & losing, & the EU is in worse shape.
Perhaps Russia will lay out a framework for these blind mice to follow? It would be in their interest to do so. No?
US control of the states not American should not be underestimated. Remember when Merkel thanked the US for keeping her phone safe.
That the things are dire in the EU is at latest pointed out by the fact that people like Ursula von der Layen are threatening EU member countries with withholding of funds or worse. Hungary got funding frozen by the EU commission, so did Poland and Italy is now being threatened by Layen over the “possible” (probable?) new government that will be to the right and unfriendly to NATO and sanctions. They are drunken on power, sanctioned Russia unsuccessfully and now they are extending these threats/sanctions on themselves internally to basically punish dissent among member states. This is an obvious sign that things are in disarray and the EU commission technocrats are out of control and increasingly out of touch on what their jobs actually are. At the end of the day, a guy like Orban was elected by the people of Hungary, who elected Layen?
who elected Layen?
Possibly Klaus Schwab?
I wrote this back in 2013 when I had a blog. I think it is an interesting read in the optics of Larry’s post….
CYPRUS, EUROPE’S POISON PILL
We are currently auditing the implosion of the failed experiment that was the European Union. How arrogant and affected by severe Alzheimer do you have to be to believe that you can unite Europe a continent where the embers of previous wars are still alive, a cesspool of rotten politics, inept leaders, and a monetary system flawed from the outset? The latest Cyprus developments are directly planting the seeds for a civil war in Europe. It is now no longer a question of whether or not to exit the euro, it is now a question of who will exit first.
Europe is going to splinter at the seams. The mere gall that northern European leaders have, to suggest raiding Cypriots’ bank accounts is something no one should take lightly. It shows how desperate the situation is in Europe and how desperate the “Troika” is.
The European Commission (EC), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the European Central Bank (ECB) are all clamping down hard on weaker European peripheral countries with austerity programs and now, threats of confiscation. The reality is that they have no one to blame but themselves. Granted, countries such as Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and others were profligate but the stronger economies of Europe, Germany especially, are equally to blame. They are the countries that practically forced the weaker nations to adopt the euro, putting them in a position where they could not compete against the stronger economies of Germany and France. Moreover, Germany and France rammed loans that are now un-payable down the throats of those weaker countries.
It has gotten so bad in Europe, that the rise of neo-Nazi parties is astounding. In Greece, the neo-Nazi “Golden Dawn” party has risen in popularity from 0.3 percent of the Greeks polled in 2009 to as much as 7 percent late last year, a 23-fold increase in just three years. From the north of Europe to the Mediterranean in the south, fascist and neo-Nazi parties are growing, as EU Home Affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom recently stated, “Not since World War II have extreme and populist forces had so much influence on the national parliaments as they have today”.
Unless the Troika backs off the weaker, heavily indebted countries, which is not likely, I believe Europe is headed toward massive civil unrest and war. Another worrisome aspect is Russia. According to Moody’s ratings agency, Russians have $19 Billion in Cypriot banks, nearly as much as Cyprus’ entire GDP. Russian banks have an additional $12 Billion invested and have loaned another $40 Billion to Cypriot companies of Russian origin. That is just Cyprus. While there are no clear estimates on how much Russian money, legally or illegally is spread out over Europe, It is safe to assume there are boatloads. In 2012 alone, an estimated $46 Billion left Russia, much of it going into Europe.
Vladimir Putin is outraged over the crisis in Cyprus although Russia decided not to intervene officially to the aid of Russian depositors because it wants to stop capital outflow and how better to do just that by sending the message that your money is not safe outside Mother Russia? I stress officially because somehow the Russians got their money out. He will however not stand idly by while Russian money is at risk in Europe. Russia largely controls the European energy sector; the European Union depends on Russia for more than 32 percent of its crude oil, and 39 percent of its natural gas needs. Many countries in Europe depend upon Russia for 100 percent of their energy needs. Germany depends upon Russia for as much as 36 percent of its energy needs. If Putin feels Russian financial losses in Europe are unjust, he could threaten to retaliate by “turning off the lights” in Europe.
Due to what is happening now in the next phase of the great financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, war and massive civil unrest in many parts of the world is a very real threat and is starting to affect the financial markets. It is a major geo-political reason why the dollar is now breaking out to the upside. Moreover, it is a major reason why I forecast a much higher US equity market, as frightened capital from all over the world will pour into the US and emerging markets of Asia.
My advice to Europeans and Russians is, bring your money to the US and invest it in the stock markets where it is safe from confiscation. Albeit, it is safe from confiscation in the European stock markets if you believe those stock markets will do well. Remember, it is better to pay taxes than to have some bureaucrat arbitrarily decide to steal your money.
What if all those european nazis formed a national socialist european fascist workers party on an all european basis much like say that 15 republic communist party of the soviet union and took over the european union structures to spite the eu elites.
It’s not the US, it’s the UK. Know your enemy if you want to defeat them.
They are the organizing power behind 300 years of colonial rape, pillage and murder (the US since 1913 is the checkbook, local natives (Afghans, Ukrainians etc.) are the hired muscle).
The UK needs to be broken up and rebuilt as a grouping of republics each with all the military striking power and international influence of Denmark. I.e. a non-offensive, equal participant in international institutions mostly focused on making life better for their own people instead of “saving the world from [enter made-up threat here]”.
You think Western powers will just let go of 450 years of world domination multilaterism entails for Ukraine’s failure to dislodge Putin? I think not. I think far more likely is direct war vs Russia if and when our proxy army Ukraine fails. Not saying we wouldn’t get our hair mussed to quote Jack T Ripper, probably 500 million die according to simulations I’ve seen, and elites will be unscathed anyway so no real loss to them but they maintain global domination. It’s already in motion with the constant Russian POV censorship (telegram is now being asked to censor pro Russia channels or else get kicked off android and apple store) the constant telling us that Putin’s about to use nukes so of course we’ll have to first strike this “lunatic” … the constant portrayal of Russians as inept corrupt incompetents – all of them beyond redemption and worthy of nuking.
Max out your credit. Go have some fun. Take your friends and family out to nice dinners. Won’t matter in 12 months.
“Moreover, it is a major reason why I forecast a much higher US equity market, as frightened capital from all over the world will pour into the US and emerging markets of Asia.”
You are apparently conflating moments in a lateral process with lateral processes and linearly extrapolating “forecasts” thereupon.
It is comforting to some that illusions of can-doness are “alive and kicking”.
Thought experiment:
I actually think there is, in theory, a very simple solution for peace that would be irresistable for both Ukraine and Russia.
Russia leaves Ukraine and return all the lands pre-2014 to Ukraine. In return, NATO is dissolved(!) and become history just like the Soviet Union, the Warzaw-pact and the Berlin wall.
This ultimatum would call out the bluff of NATO and the facade that their involvment in the conflict is because they care for “the sovereignty of Ukraine.
Having Crimea back would be a irresistable offer for Ukraine and destroying NATO would be a irresistable offer for Russia.
NATO would of course refuse this but then it would be a “mask off”-moment, displaying to the world and to Ukraine that this conflict is NOT about preserving Ukraine/respecting international law.
Russia can’t trust NATO. Everyone knows this after Minsks let alone all the promises not to expand NATO in the first place. They’d just spilt or say they’ll spilt after Russia withdrawals and reconstitute.
With economic collapse, the EU is eadier to bust than NATO. As winter comes, economic failures will take center stage and majority % will blame EU leadership. The conveniences of EU membership will be outweighed by empty shelves and cold homes. If Hungary or Italy even start the process to leave to save their economies, others will follow even if it takes a year or 2. NATO still provides security but the EU managed to destroy industry, trade, currency , etc in one season. After the EU finishes destroying economies NATO will have less $ as countries will not be able to spend 2%.
US and NATO are not trustworthy anyway. Russia will not make any contracts with them, as the west simply will never honor them the same way. Your proposal will never work in my opinion. NATO’s existence is now tied to “defending the west” against the evil Russians and Chinese. They made sure that message will stick forever, as many people already were questioning NATO’s purpose at all.
Russia has to neutralize the threat on its own and show to the warmongers and what not in the west, that a world without Russia will simply be impossible. That is the only language those people in the west understand.
Wait until EU feels the pain. Winter is coming, it is not there yet. All that western BS will come into reality. People will know and understand how lucky they were before the west started that mess.
EU has no future. It is still there because it distributes free money to it’s so called members. NATO only looks good on paper. In reality they could not even win a war participation price. They are utter incompetent and way too overconfident what they can achieve. They got their ass handed to them in Ukraine in week two. After that this mess has been a nightmare. They pour hardware and money and can’t change anything.
Best scenario for Russia is when Ukraine seizes to exist. That way all that land-lease stuff will be an empty promise and therefore a total loss to the collective west.
What really seems to matter + reason for alarm is the apparent lack of mental stability & hysteric tendencies on Both sides, fed and amplified and reinforced lbnl by socalled “social media” + “The Internet” (not at hand in 1st and 2nd cold war and even at 1999 gangrape humanitarian bombing of yugoslavia). Those times seem quite calm + moderate, in retrospect. Not so much outcry. I would not even mention today’s really disgusting perversities, possible now, as gleeing about footage of “dead enemiens”, presenting memorial photos of “hunted down” Rrussians on twitter and other offenses against taste.)
Idiotic clips at yt offer speculations about possible use of (1961 !) “Tsar Bomba” by WWP get 100 of thousands of clicks in short period of time, e.g. Facepalm !
Talkshowpeople brag + boast about use of “nukes” almost routinely, esp. female politicians obviously feel the need to show “toughness” by declaring being ready for a (feminist ? non-toxic-male ?) nuclear war. – Enough, more than enough to worry about. Psychic condition is critical up to point of open degeneracy.
S. called “analysis” (e.g. listen to twitterspace talk btw Alperovitch, Kofman and Lee few days ago, about Russian mob issue) has no problem only presenting + propagating the “problems” of one side (so, “Russians”, esp. professional military and cadres are already nearing to be worn out, have other problems en masse, and no mention of the situation on UA side, or what’s about their professionals. Of coure. And this kind of analysis presented for months and months).
Of course, I’m also sceptical on the other side, esp. the preacher Martyanov, gleeing about all those uncultured western idiots, yeah, yeah, Rrussia has endless potential, clock is thrown out of window, and only small part of military power is used so far. Man o man, this Andrei has a good point sometimes, but his permanent grandstanding sucks, m’ sorry.
Either side has one or another good argument, sure, but do not buy the full propaganda packet offered to you by BOTH sides.
Nerve-wrecking, all that.
What I would really suggest now is the showing of only real NUKE war shocker known to me, British “threads” (1984) at prime time, internationally.
Might bring one or another to his senses.
Widespread education gaps regarding the Nuke are obvious by now.
(…Our “leaders” are o.k. with that !)
People residing in the Donetsk villages/settlements of Yarova, Ridkodub, Nove, Karpivka, and Drobysheve thought they would be voting today to join Russia. Instead, Russian soldiers and authorities in these places quickly left at the first sight of approaching Ukrainian army soldiers, and these settlements are now firmly under the control of Ukraine. The residents of these 5 settlements in Donetsk have to be extremely disillusioned with Russia. No doubt they are thinking to themselves, “How can we become part of Russia if Russia will not protect us from the Ukrainian army?”
You have mistaken this site for Twitter.
Every aspect
Every angle
Every hot button
Every phobia
Every high
Every tendency
Every purse
Every idea
Is being manipulated, pressured, planted and watered by this same of self-appointed world controllers….for decades with pretty much maximum efficiency…. and for centuries whilst they were getting their act together.
The educational and cultural setup insured that those being put out by the system would not have to be coerced or bribed…..they would be true believers.
Now the collective west and many of its lesser vassals are governed, taught, preached, entertained and cuddled by those graduates.
Anyone that thinks they will divorce, separate, fight, break up, etc, etc…is not looking at them correctly.
The change when it finally does come, will come bottom up…..from the lower, working, peasant, common sense individuals that are hurting, and seeing their loved ones hurting….and are deaf to the opera of propaganda telling them to feel and think the opposite.
The fork on the road will be, when the graduates realize their fate and issue orders for their armed guards to protect them, and put down the dissent….then, we will see the future….will they maim and kill to protect their masters and the order……will they refuse…. or will they turn, and join the oppressed……that is the final solution…. in my opinion.
Ursula Von Der Loony on democracy:
“We will see the result of the vote in Italy. If things go in a difficult direction, we have tools, as in the case of Poland and Hungary.”
This is my take on what is in store, by the looks of it:
The EU is, increasingly, going ‘Full Davos’, led by ‘The Commission’, a totalitarian state submerging the population in continuous, and sustainable debt slavery, based on credits issued by the governing body, with all private possession swept aside. Some EU-countries may not want to stay the course, and shift sides, joining the EurAsian-bloc, or becoming an eagles-nest for the ‘Warparty’ (D/R) seated in the US, with the UK as its partner opposite continental Europe.
Allow me to explain my thinking.
Throughout Europe inflation and rising rates are ravaging the disposable income of the entire citizenry, who look to the government to save them. And the government complies eagerly, though they have no money worth anything as natural resources are non-existent, and the same government is killing the industry, as well as agriculture to ‘Save the Planet’. There are differences between member states, but that is the general picture, and the richest countries are leading the way. Soon nearly everybody will depend on handouts, and anyone who isn’t will be pressured to show ‘solidarity’ in the face of scarcity. There is no transnational organisation capable of organising effective opposition to what ‘Brussels’ is doing.
Hungary, and countries around the Mediterranean may drop out, without ‘Brussels’ having any possibility to stop them, but sanctions will be swift and destructive, on both sides, but if the EurAsian block succeeds in creating a ‘bridge’ to trade with these countries, they will come out on top, and may go for it. Understand that the (Eastern) Mediterranean is said to hold more natural gas than the entire Middle East once held.
The US (‘Warparty’), now struggling to stay afloat as a ‘World Power’, will embrace countries like Poland and the Baltic states as a bridgehead to tickle Russia, but if anything, it is going to be extremely costly, since Poland lived of EU subsidies since it became a member, and with Germany gone as a donor they are already eyeing future ‘reparations’, and if not in hard currency, they may invent an excuse to help themselves to parts of its territory, while ‘growing’ organically into Ukraine, restoring the short-lived ‘Kiev-Rus’ Kingdom of the Middle ages, stretching from Finland to just short of the Black Sea, since Russia won’t allow them to reach ‘their’ sea, and spoil their trade route between Southern Europe and Northern Africa and their Chinese partners.
Now, don’t nail me to this prediction, because it is only meant as a means to frame the various ambitions, without paying too much attention to explaining how this would come about, and which battles are still needed to make it so. I know full well that it sounds far fetched, but these are far fetched times, with all kinds of people in leading positions in the western hemisphere acting on impulse, rather than thinking things through, imagining themselves to be all-powerful, even while they are eating horse-manure, and acting like they are in a ‘Game of Thrones’ series, instead of dealing with real people. Boris Johnson’s Freudian slip, where he thanked Putin in the House of Commons on his first day as a ‘back bencher’ after his failed attempt to make Britain Great again, and Biden losing his way on a podium reaching the mainstream news is telling me out time is up.
Larry? Is not the referendum in the Donbass to revert back to Russian citizenship in perfect accord with U.N specifications? They already voted in February to accept Russian protection. Now, they want their citizenship and homes back without the Ukie bombing and missiles landing in their midst. Simple stuff, this. Yet, CNN last night, ABC and CBS this morning and most of last night were labeling these “sham elections”, forgetting the Maidan revolution, Iraq, Libya, Iran, Afghanistan, Egypt, Chile (United Fruit) and a million others including Hillary, Bernie, the pestering of Trump plus 2020/covid. Well, we know they hate legitimate elections via popular elections. The referendum we’re witnessing in Donbass is perfectly legit, right? Same as Crimea in 2015? Those folks voted too.
You Sir, have forgotten more than I will ever know. And I spent thirty five years, hell, my whole life in the DC Cesspool. The Donbass/Russian coalition is in the clear legality-wise, right?
From 8:50 on this youtube video you can see how the bosses massage the ego of one of the Brussels poodles. If a picture is worth a thousand words, to me, the poodles will hang themselves from their collars if their masters say so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUqHFUqX3V0&t=636s
” I think we are on the threshold of a new multi-polar international order that will finally shatter the legacy of European colonialism and American imperialism”
No doubt. But the question is: How deep is the threshold? Rome was at the threshold for centuries.
Short of a total demographic or domestic political collapse (which are always possible) USA has potentially decades to use its still considerable financial and military power to stage a counter-rebellion against China/Russia. None of these geopolitical gains or new economic inter-relations on the part of SCO/BRICS countries is “set in stone” yet. There is always a Juan Guaido or Navalny waiting in the wings to be staged managed by Washington through a coup or color revolution. Look at Pakistan two months ago. Recent tries in Belarus and Kazakhstan. Nobody is safe. Atlanticist neocons are supremacist ideologues rivaling the most fervent Jehovas Witness in zealotry–they are tenacious and will keep at this for decades and decades. They have literally thousands and thousands of young people from Asia, Russia and Africa recieving indoctrination in the glories of free market liberalism and “democracy.” They will be the future contenders for power in their respective countries. Russia and China must stand guard. Far beyond our current lifetimes.
We USA and EU are far closer to rebellion than our competitors. Rightly or wrongly, Inner cities are already in open rebellion right now and basically war zones… country is so divided it’s been called a national security threat by many…people are balkanizing themselves into Red and Blue states… We have no nationalism or national religion, the most powerful force in the universe, to bind us like these other countries – it was all predicated on equality, merit and getting a middle class life which we fail at and kids these days are bunking up with roommates in apartments into their 30s working gig jobs. It will take very little to send them into the streets again and burn everything down…like GF killing did.
“The inflationary spiral may lead to the day where it is cheaper to wipe your ass with a 100 Euro note than three sheets of Hakle.”
Lots of lucky with that … they are trying to phase out physical currency. Though many Germans do prefer to still transact with cash, it’s increasingly difficult as government policies push them into penury that necessitates card usage. I guess you can use you cards to wipe your nether-regions, though.
Larry, sou brasileiro e percebi que já é a segunda vez que você cita o Brasil como um dos atores dessa nova ordem multipolar.
Você realmente vê o Brasil como um ator importante ou ele será só mais um coadjuvante, em sua opinião?
Things are not all good in China. The zero-covid madness and economic turmoil is a proxy for internal struggles in the CCP.
It would be ironic if the greatest threat to Russia’s plans turned out to be turmoil in China. Probably not close to that happening yet. The Chinese masses seem even more sheep like than we.
But there are real problems in China which Russia needs to keep an eye on.
There’s another obvious scenario that few are openly stating.
The USA throws off the UK re-infection, purges our State Dept & CIA of MI-6 agents, and returns to our prior US history.
see https://archive.org/details/ashesawit00roos
e.g., p.115
We de-Britified the USA once, 1776-1783. Need to do it again
There is zero chance any European country will exit NATO in my view. They have insufficient resources to defend themselves and are fully reliant on UKUS for certain types of intelligence. Aside from France no EU country has nukes. It is fully in their interested to hang on to USUK.
The US did not force EU to impose some of the insane sanctions it has imposed. It has done that by itself and gone even further than the US. It is not without agency of its own.
If NATO ends only one country will end it. The USA.
US will only end it on 3 situations
– survival
– cost of supporting Europe especially if a European country is attacked
– huge anti-US sentiment in Europe that threatens it’s bases and intersts there
The US has zero need for NATO. None. It is capable of achieving it’s foreign aims with five eyes and France.
The rest it can use as and when needed on a bilateral basis.
So I can’t see any country other than US ending NATO to focus more on 5eyes developing into a huge power.
Let the US stop providing the defense of Europe.
Let the US spend that unused military budget domestically.
Let the Europeans pay for their own defense.
Then let’s see what happens to living standards.
Do you honestly think the USA subsidizes Europe? Or is it the other way around – that the USA has been subsidized by Europe and the rest of the world?
The ol’Leibach always was kinda prophetic. Published in 2015, perfectly illustrates the fate of EU & NATO
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKbcbxaD-Co
NATO and the United States especially can not match Russia’s industrial warfare capacity, (especially if China has Russia’s back,) in time to save Ukraine. This is a fact. The West will either capitulate or drop nukes. See if you don’t agree after reading this: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/return-industrial-warfare
“But the worsening economic picture is not yet sufficient to generate the necessary political pressure among the propagandized American electorate to back away from sending billions to Ukraine. A major shock of stagflation or a collapse of the Ukrainian army, however, could change that calculus.”
Well, Americans at large have stopped thinking we’re not sending enough support to Ukraine, and Republican voters are turning against supporting Ukraine at all:
https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/ft_2022.09.22_ukraine_02.png?w=640
The only problem with your analysis, Larry, is that you’re logical and the European politicians are not. They serve the Globalist Oligarchs and not their own people. They have no reverse gear and will continue to double down using repression and physical force to continue doing what they are doing. Biden’s use of the FBI as a Stazi like force to go after an ever widening circle of Republican Trump supporters in an effort to document a huge national conspiracy to deny him the 2020 presidency is just the latest example of their desperation as their end days draw near. They will not go quietly into the night.
Hey Larry good summation of the situation in Europe and a potential trigger for the dissolution of NATO. Like the fall of Rome, the US “Colossus” will not fall in a day…it will take some time but it feels like we’re already in a nosedive that can’t be pulled out of.
The US is kind of like that alcoholic that will not sober up until they hit bottom…the Ukraine special military operation is certainly going to bring that bottom a step closer–I hope anyway. I am all for a multi-polar world order–not because I am rooting for BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) but I think an emergence of a multi-polar world may/can provide that moment of clarity where the US realizes that its post-cold war foreign policy has been and is shit–it may then have the opportunity to rise from the ashes and become the great nation it once was. Wishful thinking…
European nations are democracies which means that they don’t have to care about the welfare and opinions of the populace. The war against Russia is a moral war against Christianity, the unwillingness to preach anal sex to elementary school students and fossil fuels.
The population of Europe freezing this winter and losing their jobs aren’t going to change this moral jihad.
It will take a revolution to unseat the globalists and return Europe to sanity. That may take much longer than this winter. White people don’t want to be seen as bad people. Not believing in the narratives is their media makes them lose all status and be seen as no better than Donald Trump.
I think the core goals of the two super powers involved in the current conflict in Ukraine are proceeding according to plan.
Russia first: I see her core interest as being the incorporation into the Russia Federation of the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa. In about one week’s time it will be four down, with two to go. Ultimately this will unite most of Russian speaking Ukraine with Russia and secure total control of the north coast of the Black Sea.
The U.S. next: While I have no doubt that a fragmentation of Russia would have pleased the U.S. greatly, I see her core interest as being the deindustrialisation of Europe, and Germany in particular, and the removal of the Euro as a competitive currency.
I will make one prediction – there will not be a nuclear war.
Long time lurker, first time commenter here. Enjoying many analyses from you, especially from a military/intelligence perspective. I want ot thank you for the time you take to share your insights.
Here, however, I have to fundamentally disagree. You and most of the commenters paint a way too rosy picture of the possibility of political change in germany. From my pov (german) there are some basic flaws when it comes to german political and public (i. e. media) landscape.
Just look at the graph at the bottom of this page: https://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/sonntagsfrage/ (top left adjust to 1 year -> “1 J”)
The graph shows the answer to the question what party people would vote for if a general federal pariamentary election would be scheduled for “next sunday”. So the data points are on a weekly basis. Look at the green, red and black lines. Red is Scholz’s party, green’s obvious and black is Merkel’s party, currently opposition leader. Starting with the SMO red is decreasing most likely because of Scholz’s hesitation regarding weapon deliveries to 404. Green and black support 404 unconditionally. And their share of the vote is increasing!
If you are about to grab your tinfoil hats, pause for a moment. Of course, those numbers might be nudged a little bit towards the position of the powers that be. Of course, the 20-30% non-voters aren’t represented here. But, I ask you: is that relevant? Nah, from that publicized perspective the transatlantic hawks are doing everything right. Voters approve of their attitude towards that conflict/crisis.
Opinions that are not 100% transatlanticist are marginalized regarding publicized opinions.
And some mentioned Linke and AfD as alternatives. Are you serious?
Die Linke’s primary goal is to be more woke than present day Hollywood and they gave up their goal of leaving NATO years ago. They too applauded Melnyk when he attended parliament back in february.
And AfD? If you are serious about opposing Nazism and fascism in 404, how on earth can you support them? They formed as disgruntled Unionist’s (remember the black line?) because Merkel was getting too centric, i. e. not capitalist enough. They fish for votes on the stupid far right and are financially supported by big capital. Besides they are politically incompetent. If it wasn’t for the opportunity to show opposition to the general opinion and getting angry voters on there side, they would be happy drinking beers with Azov, Bandera’s and all the others. Ideologically that’s one brew.
There is simply no organized parliamentary or non-parliamentary institution (whatever one may call it) that moves toward eurasian integration away from the anglosaxon sphere of influence.
“The enemy of my enemy is my friend” doesn’t apply here. I haven’t voted for anything in the last 13 years for exactly that reason.
Sounds depressing? Yeah, because it is, no realistic solution in sight. MSM may be in a filter bubble, but there are bubbles on our side, too. We should be aware of them.
Larry I followed you a bit on the Duran and now I am coming directly to the source. Your commentary on both military and economic matters throughout this unhappy conflict has been spot on, and this article is no exception. The mass of sycophants in the EU is astounding and must be the WEF corruption club behind it all. Anyways I am a dedicated follower and admirer of your work and wish you continued success. Best wishes from NS Canada 🇨🇦
Thanks Andrew. I welcome the feedback.
“But the worsening economic picture is not yet sufficient to generate the necessary political pressure among the propagandized American electorate to back away from sending billions to Ukraine. A major shock of stagflation or a collapse of the Ukrainian army, however, could change that calculus.”
This part is mistaken to the extent that Larry believes that “the elctorate” has anything to do with anything that the DC Regime does, particularly viz Ukraine. American elections are a farce and have been since at least 2000s. We have a criminal cartel in power in DC, a technocratic oligarchy that has a purely parasitic relationship with ordinary Americans.
So the question should be better phrased as, What would cause the Regime to change course? It has absolutely nothing to do with voters. It will only occur when one or more powerful factions in the Regime decide that the current course threatens that faction’s critical interests.
So, for example, the Pentagon MIC faction might decide that the White House Neocon faction is leading too closely to direct US-Russian combat and nukes. At that point, the Pentagon faction may exert sufficient force to change policy. But no guarantees. Quite possible the Regime plunges us all over the cliff, if only by sheer, arrogant inadvertence.
Excellent article : clair, honnête et très réaliste.
Back in 1990 when the Soviet Union collapsed, the west had the option to disband NATO. The Cold War was over. NATO had no reason to exist. Yet it is still here with missiles pointed at Moscow.
I believe the erasure of NATO is Putin’s ultimate aim. Russia cannot fully relax until the whole organisation is broken disbanded. Ukraine is a war of attrition, Putin’s speech at the joining of the 4 territories to the Mother Land is extremely prescient if only our ‘leaders’ would listen. We cannot eat fiat money. We cannot produce without energy. We cannot spend the fictitious values of social media companies. The west is doomed and we haven’t even realised it yet because we’re distracted by Elon Musk tweeted something controversial.
De-industrialising Europe only benefits a country with industrial capacity. For Putin and Russia, this war is about neutralising NATO. For the US, this war is about China. Draining Europe of human and industrial resources, particularly Germany, in to the US Sleepy Joe and Neo-Cons think will keep Uncle Sam ahead of China. Russia is a stepping stone, regime change can install a puppet President.
Brzezinsky’s Chess Board was designed to pivot east to Beijing. Ukrainians, Europeans and Russians are all expendable pieces on the board.
Last I’ve checked, back there in the 1990s, if my memory serves, there was absolutely no need to break up with the US, because we (an exotic European tribe which goes by the name of Slovenians) never were part of the US. Apart from Frankie Yankovic, of course:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTmMRq9oxto
OK, now. All non-anglo-saxon world laughs of our precious donation of some old tanks of ours to Ukraine. Oh, my, how embarrassing. Or, maybe not, if you take the cultural context of this rather unfortunate matter in mind. Like Laibach’s epical trolling of all and sundry since the 1980. Real life trolling, not internet trolling, mind you. There was no internet in the 1980s. If there is no optic cable between you and the subject you are trolling, and if the subject in question is the regime, with the army, secret & not so secret police at it’s disposal… well, you figure it out. So, the Laibach’s real life health and bone risking trolling is like an onion. The more layers you uncover, the more embarrassed you get. And embarrassment… well… sometimes it brings regimes down.
Please enjoy this Laibach’s Hitler Bunker speech version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yybY0QeZdro
Full movie is surely still available… somewhere on the internet. If not, I’ll gladly share it with you… somehow.
Oh… heating, energy, industry, business, toiler paper and stuff you are asking about… well, so far so good. We still have something to wipe our asses & clog our toilets with around here besides the € bills. BUT. We are the periphery of the EU. Always behind the curve.