Yes. I think they will. But not because Russia is running out of shells and rockets. Nope. I think China wants a chance to field test some of its weaponry and drones against a foe that shoots back in order to see how they perform in a combat environment. Firing artillery or surface-to-air missiles on a closed range does not compare with lighting them up on a bona fide battlefield.
The warnings to China to not help Russia is not new. One year ago the Biden team put out the word that:
China will face consequences if it helps Russia evade sanctions in its invasion of Ukraine, the US says.
Unnamed US officials told multiple news outlets that China had signalled willingness to provide military assistance to Russia.
The Chinese foreign ministry accused the US of spreading disinformation. Russia denied asking Beijing for military help.
The exchanges came before top US and Chinese officials met in Rome.
Media outlets, citing Washington officials, say that Russia has in recent days asked China specifically for military equipment, including drones.
Well, the Chinese ignored those unnamed officials and stepped up its cooperation and coordination with Russia.
Could this be the real reason behind Joe Biden’s order to shoot down an errant Chinese balloon (spy or weather) last month? Biden’s revenge for Beijing’s decision to ignore the West’s sanctions on Russia? Those damn Chinese. They do not know the meaning of kowtow (for the sarcastically impaired, this is a joke).
As Yogi Berra said, “it’s deja vu all over again.” A week shy of the anniversary of the first warnings to China over helping Russia, the Biden team exited their clown car and reiterated their past empty threats:
The United States warned China of serious consequences were it to provide arms to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Kyiv’s top general visited the frontline town of Bakhmut where Ukrainian defenders were holding out against constant attacks.
Washington and its NATO allies are scrambling to dissuade China from providing military aid for Moscow’s war, making public comments on their belief that Beijing is considering providing lethal equipment possibly including drones.
Western fears of China helping to arm Russia come as Moscow’s forces struggle to make gains around key objectives in eastern Ukraine, and as Kyiv prepares a counter-offensive with advanced Western weapons including battle tanks.
Xi Jinping and his advisors must be wondering if Biden, Sullivan and Blinken are partaking of Hunter’s illegal stash of hallucinogens. The Chinese have watched the United States and Europe flood Ukraine with money, artillery, artillery shells, anti-tank missiles, Bradley fighting vehicles and tanks and, in typical Chinese restraint, have not chided the NATO countries, at least in public, for this lethal support. Yet the United States, with the European poodles trotting obediently behind, has the Fàngsì (that is Chutzpah in Chinese) to warn Beijing to not do what it is doing. There has to be some serious head scratching going on among Xi’s advisors. What the hell is America trying to do?
Pissing off China seems to be Biden’s play. Along with ordering China to not send military help to Russia, the Biden team leaked intel blaming China for Covid and backed Congressional legislation to ban Tik Tok. I think this has eliminated any doubt among Chinese leaders that the United States is intent on humiliating China rather than find a constructive diplomatic solution.
Back to Russia for a moment. Russia does not need Chinese weapons or aircraft, including drones. However, I think Vladimir Putin is quite willing to give the Chinese military a chance to test their weapons on the battlefield. Chinese military planners are taking U.S. threats about going to war with China and want to be sure their weapons function as intended.
I think the Chinese response to Secretary of State Blinken went something like this, 我們不是你的婊子 (Wǒmen bùshì nǐ de biǎo zi). Look it up.
Inserting Chinese remarks in Chinese ads even more interest and engagement to your posting, Johnson.
Otherwise, a relevant and accurate comment on current events. It is a shame that no-one in Washington will consider such good advise, at least until 2024.
(Perhaps useful to someone here – DeepL Translator is quite precise as a translation tool, and free)
how many traitors says
How many traitors are there in the Russian High Command?
Some of them? Most of them? All of them?
Mar 2, 2023; “Russian forces appear to have scaled back efforts to encircle Bakhmut from the southwest as well as from the northeast and may instead be focusing on pressuring Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the city by concentrating on the northeastern offensive.”
Mar 2, 2023; “Russian forces may be attempting to pressure Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut to conduct a tactical retreat through the T0504 highway and therefore have reduced their efforts to encircle the settlement by capturing Ivanivske as well.”
The Russians are forcing the Ukrainians to escape.
So, is this the work of the traitors in the Russian High Command?
“Russian forces conducted a similar operational shift in their offensive to capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast in June and July of 2022. Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk conducted controlled tactical retreats after sustaining increased pressure from Russian forces that initially intended to completely encircle Ukrainian forces in the settlements.”
The Russians forced the Ukrainians to escape in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
So, was this also the work of the traitors in the Russian High Command?
Those escaping troops leave all their equipment behind them, which is why the US has built 3 armies for Ukraine, up to now. The US cannot give them anymore, the EU never had the ability to arm Ukraine against Russian forces, and the rest of the world has watched in slow motion while the US empire falls apart quicker than a chocolate bar in the sun.
If only the US had such a treasonous High Command as the Russians, they might actually have not lost Afghanistan to a rag-tag gang of goat herders.
What would have constituted a “win” (versus “lost”) in Afghanistan? Seriously. There looked to be a big win, to me at least, the transfer of a trillion or so bucks to the MIC, and lots more to various corruption and black-budget siphons. But what would a supposed military and political “victory” have looked like? Same as Vietnam, or maybe Libya?
I was just banned from moonofalabama.org for reposting the comment “How many traitors are there in the Russian High Command?”
After that they started a completely new comment page; “Ukraine Open Thread 2023-53”.
What do you reckon is their motivation for this?
Larry Johnson says
I assumed you were being sarcastic. Bernard didn’t appreciate your sense of humor.
A true win is always unconditional surrender.
Anything less is just wicked parties making bank off the death and suffering of people. And those wicked parties are usually those who manipulate both sides of any conflict, or those who have direct ties to those who manipulate both sides of any given conflict, for their own profit.
The thing most people dont understand is this. Unconditional surrender is the only thing that allows the “winner” to love his enemies. For you dont offer the enemy city that you are starving out during a siege food and water during the siege, but after they surrender.
Look at it this way. America pulled out of Afghanistan, leaving most of their equipment, and called it a “win”, when in actuality it was a loss.
For if it was truly a “win”, why then are we not rebuilding that war torn nation now with open and joyous yet wary acceptance from a defeated enemy who did not expect their enemy to love them and help them after they were defeated?
Most people cannot even begin to fathom the simple common sense teachings of the Bible. Heck, for that matter most people even screw up the false teachings of the demons and devils they fall for so readily.
The last closest to true win I can think of for the west was the unconditional surrenders of WW2. Yet as we can clearly see by the outcomes today, wicked men swept into the war machines of nations, and decided to destroy the world for the sake of their own profits.
So even though the “Enemy” lost in WW2, the victors did not win, but were morphed into the wicked dead through their own desires for that which does not belong to them, who will most likely suffer the pains of hell when they leave this testing platform of God if they continue on this path. Those of this crowd who have left already without changing their ways are eternally screwed.
(which includes many of the “hero’s people were brainwashed into worshiping )
1913 was the devils year of conquest of the west.
Why don’t you start where the conversation was, on the assumption that the Russian High Command are treasonous and losing as “how many traitors says” says in his post.
The defence industry of Russia works for the Russian military, while the US Government works for the US defence industry, so let’s not compare soldiers with greedy b’stards.
“ I was just banned from moonofalabama…”
I reckon Bernard took you for a troll.
It’s very important to remember that the goat herders had NO aircraft or artillery and 90% of their weapons were 1940s and 1950s technology.
Ghost Ship says
1. Russian Army could be trying to engineer a rout of the Ukrainian Army in Bakhmut. The elements around Bakhmut race off to the west to escape and Ukraine doesn’t get troops to man its new defensive lines.
2. Russian Army hoping some Ukrainian units will get so pissed off at the number of their mates that are killed by Zelensky’s stupidity and arrogance and Azov murderous racism that it mutinies and once mutinies start they can be difficult to stop. For example, Russia in 1917. Zelensky being overthrown by mutineers would mirror what West hoped would happen in Russia to Putin.
that’s not !
Did you never read about military strategy? A wounded encircled ennemy is the most dangerous!!
That’s why Genghis Khan used the golden bridge to let the enemies escape with minimal equipment while shooting everything at them!
No military culture whatsoever!
Machiavellichuk here says
I suspect it was Zelensky’s plan all along (or maybe it was the neocons’ idea) to feed so many boys and old men into the Bakhmut meat grinder that it would finally spark an ‘Oh, the humanity, we MUST engage directly!’ deafening response from the public at large.
Gotta hand it to Zelensky’s fascists-on-the-ropes. They’re no dopes.
Socratic Dog says
Alternatively, Ukraine will need repopulating. And who better to do it than a certain Tribal group, of which Zelensky is a member, with antecedents in the region?
“When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard” – Sun Tzu
“How many traitors are there in the Russian High Command?”
What a preposterous post!
Any enemy with no means to escape will fight to the death with an unnecessary increase in the death toll.
The Uko-Nazis are giving the gang-pressed and conscripted Ukrainian forces no chance to surrender or retreat. The Ukrainian army composed increasing
of schoolboys and old men is being slaughtered daily in the hundreds by Russian artillery, or shot in the back by the Uko-Nazis if they try to flee.
Russia has conducted this SMO professionally and surgically, avoiding unnecessary casualties and destruction wherever possible. This here is again evidence of that, and hats off to them for being different than the ‘shock-n-awe’ Americans, or the Israelis and their brutal onslaughts which purposely targets the most vulnerable elements of the civilian population in what they themselves call their periodic ‘mowing the lawn’ in the Gaza and West Bank.
Hear, hear Russia! The 85% of the world outside the shrinking G7 is watching.
Ghost Ship says
Reducing an encirclement carries the risk of large casualties on the side doing the encircling and some of the encircled might escape. Allowing the encircled to flee through a battlefield shaped to provide killing zones might well result in as many deaths among the encircled with limited deaths among the encirclers.
Battle of the Sittang Bend in July/August 1945 saw 8,500 Japanese cut off from retreat killed for the loss of 95 dead British and allied soldiers
The Builder says
Thank you for the DeepL info.
Darth Readius says
Larry love your work and agree we are handling this like retarded school children but do you think China has no global ambitions are would be a benevolent ruler?
One should not hope for benevolent rulers. This is old US and Western imperial thinking. One should instead work towards a multipolar world governed by international law, where the weak are protected by the strong.
As an aside, in its five thousand year history how many independent countries has China colonized, invaded, or regime changed? Very few of any, not counting border clashes.
How many countries has the US invaded or regime changed in the past 50 years? Too many to count. Check the report below if you haven’t already seen it.
Multipolar is probably the right way to go as generally speaking it provides some checks and balances. But governed by international law? Screw international law. It smacks of the globalists and runs counter to a multipolar world where soveriegn nations will settle their own issues internally.
Lou Brooks says
Multipolar is the only way to go. A global, unipolar world will lead eventually to one race, one government, one set of rules, one religion ( if any ) and no choice by the population.
Imagine the wars it will take to wipe out each culture, each religion and the effort needed to reduce one race in order to let another race be predominate. One world government, a unipolar world means the eventual, and planned lose of diversity.
Multi-party system, hmm...is that called democracy? says
Multipolar is probably the right way to go as generally speaking it provides some checks and balances.
Gee, ya’ think?
Now then, where have I heard that phrase before ‘checks and balances’? It’s right on the tip of my tongue.
China’s history shows benevolence and non-aggression. They built the Great Wall of China (over 13,100 miles long over mountain tops) to keep out the constantly invading Mongolian barbarians. The West would have just crushed the invaders permanently with a massive military and taken their lands. That said, China historically and at it’s core is an “economic/trading” power. China created the “Silk Road” trading route from the 2 BCE to the mid 15th Century (1700+ years). Anyway, the wise thing to do is to always keep your defences up and remain self sufficient in the core areas.
Jim S says
Machiavelli didn’t write The Prince because Italian rulers were too benevolent and non-aggressive to understand politics, and Sun Tzu didn’t write his Art of War because Chinese rulers were too benevolent and non-aggressive to understand war. China’s military history–or what has survived Mao’s deliberate destruction of traditional Chinese culture after the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution–is magnificent, bloody, and brutal. During the period you mention China contained many peoples and kingdoms until the Mongols unified China by conquest in the 13th Century. They expended most of their considerable military energies against each other. The Mongols (Yuan Dynasty) were the definition of warlike, the Manchus (Qin Dynasty) noted for their brutality in conquest; the native Ming Dynasty, between the Yuan and Qin, was more inward looking but is still reviled for its decadence.
“China’s history shows benevolence and non-aggression” is simply untrue Party propaganda, ironic both because China’s military history is a rich tapestry and because Mao did his utmost to erase Chinese history and culture–in accordance with proper communist principles.
Robert Garnett says
My thinking exactly. This woolly headed presumption that the Chinese elites are different from the ruthless self serving elites elites of other large countrys is dangerous.
Deng Xioping threatened that China could take over Hong Kong in a day if the British didn’t cooperate in giving back Hong Kong.
Mao himself was an autocratic menace who admired Stalin.
Deng Xioping was the man who dragged China kicking and screaming into the 20th century and is made China the power it is today. He is now being written out of history to further Xi’s ambitions for his place in history.
I would not be as cynical about the Chinese “position paper” if they hadn’t annexed Tibet, a country that once was an empire in its own right. Its culture is not Chinese it is closer to Burmese, it has its own languages; not Chinese and its religion is Tibetan Buddhism that originated from India.
So China in annexing Tibet trampled over everything that Tibetans hold dear, their language, religion and culture. They forced their penultimate leader, the Dali Lama to flee. The Dali Lama didn’t become the leader because of inheritance as is usually the case in China, he was chosen at four years old. He born on 6 July 1935 on a straw mat in a cowshed to a poor farmer’s family in a remote part of Tibet.
The Dali Lama was trying to modernise Tibet, but was getting a lot of resistance from the Tibetan monks many of whom were vicious thugs, but he wanted to preserve the religion and culture.
The Chinese didn’t invade Tibet as Putin invaded Ukraine to protect people being persecuted by Nazis, they did it in there own interest to consolidate their frontiers and strengthen their security. Their elites are as ruthless and self serving as any of the elites in the US and like the US elites I would not trust them as far as I could kick them.
So if people want to take all of their motherhood statements and statements of good intentions at face value remember Tibet. And you can’t blame the annexation of Tibet on the US Neo-Cons and a color revolution.
Khalid Peer says
Please go and read Larry Romanoff on the bluemoonofshanghai website. he goes into such details about 20th century china, it amazes and he goes into the full details of the chinese military invasion of Tibet, its reasons and the who and the why and the when. It will open your eyes, as it appears that you are repeating the point of view from the west about the chinese invasion of Tibet. That being said, China is made up of humans and human rulers, will always do stupid things like war and be imperialist in some point of thier lives. Is the human way.
Robert you would do well to read the actual history of Tibet. Then you would do well to go there and actually talk to the people. Find out how they like having high speed rail, bringing tourism and food closer to them. Learn a little about the CIA and the Dali Lama who is stilled paid a larger stipend, than you or I make.
Americans need to understand our own history is tainted with lies. Lies about Tibet, Korea, China, Indonesia Vietnam Laos Cambodia, where pol pot was our big buddy till well after the war.
I suspect you have never been to China and believe every BS story coming out of the MSM. Like the bs drama in Xinjiang where the US would love to plant another base. Xinjiang is a place where I spent some time wonderful people but when I was there in the 80s desperately poor. Now the cities and towns and homes are modern, poverty is almost wiped out. A side note to you when I was in Xinjiang I was with a climbing expedition we were forced to bring and cia officer with us. Oh it was never acknowledged but the Chinese new and we new. He never spent a day climbing with us, and was roundly disliked. The point being this was not an open part of China and already the cia was all over it.
Jim S says
Don’t forget PRC’s recent occupation and militarization of the South China Sea, against international treaties and judgments–particularly those of its SE Asian neighbors, who are none too happy with the situation.
Larry mentioned that the Chinese read US white papers; well, in that spirit if we read Chinese white papers we find that PRC has been talking about waging undeclared war (so-called 4th Generation warfare–or is it 5th? Silly buzzwords) against the US specifically for decades now.
In fact internal Chinese media strikes a radically different tone than Chinese foreign-language outlets (and all media in PRC is state-controlled, just beneath the surface), at least as arrogant and chauvinistic as they accuse the West of being and a far more aggressive and militaristic face than PRC presents externally.
So the US was justified in absorbing the lands west of the Appalachians and forcing its natives onto reservations. It was right to fight Mexico to conquer the states of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. It was right to fight a bogas war with Spain to acquire Cuba and the Philippines. We were right to foment a revolt in Colombia so we could build the Panama Canal. I could go on and on and on about the shady shit this country has pulled off in the past. But hey, it’s the US right? Everything we have touched since WW2 has been a ball of shit. Have you seen Chinese or Russian soldiers in Mexico, Brazil, or countless countries in the Western Hemisphere? The reasons Russians were in Cuba was due to the fact we employed missiles in Turkey aimed at Russia first.
No, if you look into it, the US has been and is a very militant and aggressive Empire.
Umar Latif says
Spoken like an ill informed hot air person of limited intellect ….. I gather that your wisdom’s shelf life expired even before you had ended your rant
Manuel Verdugo says
Erick. Y ya se andan queriendo volver a meter a Mexico, con el pretexto del fentanilo.
What do the Russians need from the Chinese? Semiconductors. AI. And their new ISR systems, quantum radar and ghost imaging.
Permit me to add antimatter guns, teleporters and time machines.
just saying says
And Szechuan sauce.
Just Saying- it is well know the uSA is a World leader in sparkproof hammer technology.
A world without fortune cookies says
How would Biden and Ukraine get their foreign policy directives, if not through Nuland’s fortune cookies?
just saying says
Those cookies that Nuland was giving away back in the day certanly brought a lot of fortune to those people.
The Pied Piper of the Potomac says
Those cookies that Nuland was giving away back in the day certainly brought a lot of fortune to those people.
Karma Cookies, dude. Nothing but the best.
Lars- those items would be useful too. They would level up leader Byegon’s advantage in these areas.
Steffen OPPENHEIMER says
here we go again….ALL LOOK here how someone who claim to be inteligent and informed stil belive that Russia is a Gas Station mascarade in to a country.. HOW ignorant can you be that after 1 year of war with plenty of evidence of US military Aid destroyed all over in Ukraine this person stil belive in US superiority…. but he fail to mention that Russia is provide China with early warning systems, he fail to understand that Russia have her own semiconductors industry, ISR and all the BS he wrote here about…
I thought Russia manufactured all the necessary components for all their high tech military and space machines.
I think Russia is self sufficient just like they claim.
They don’t actually need but why reject China’s willingness to join up.
no, chip industry has not matured since the 90s,
many other examples.
yes, but with limitations, for example said chips in 10nm and smaller Are not produced in russia and have to Be imported.
If You Are beating the shit out of someOne and He Is on the ground in a pool of blood, your friend, despite Being your friend Is unlikely to come over and join in the beating, granted He has no personal issues with said person lying on the ground in a pool of blood.
No, I don’t think China has had global ambitions. You are confusing the Chinese mindset and cultural values with those of the West. This is a common mistake. In its thousands of years of history, the Chinese have never had global ambitions. No, the Mongols weren’t “China”. In fact, when the Mongols conquered China, they fairly quickly gave their global ambitions, the Golden Horde notwithstanding.
Why do I say this? I don’t have space here to explain.
But I have a full article which explains the complex interaction of history and geography which have shaped Western “Win-Lose” Thinking and Chinese “Win-Win.
One should add that the Russians have no interest in a global empire either.
The whole POINT of “multipolar” is respect for other cultures.
Art Thomas says
I think it is more accurate to say that the present leadership of Russia has no interest in a global empire. Neither did the American leadership until around the dawn of the 20th Century.
In many ways Russia is a “young” country like the US was in 1776 bent on establishing itself as an equal among the European states but getting there by peaceful economic production and trade and non interference in other countries politics and internal affairs. This seems to be Vladimir Putin’s philosophy. Will future leaders of Russia continue with this policy of viewing other countries as sovereign and trading peacefully with them?
Nation states are inherently power hungry. A small group rule the rest of us by force. They live off our productive wealth by force which they obscure with the law. So the temptation to rule the people of other countries is built in.
Art, Common man the US landed on the shores here and started killing from the get go; first the Natives, then the Mexicans. Then the imported whole villages from Africa to build their bank accounts on free labor. Then we moved further afield to central and South America again using slave labor to make money on fruit and sugar. Then off to the pacific to do the same. It switch from crops to oil and we expanded our territory even more. After world war 2 we had to lie about why we were doing it that is the only difference.
Art Thomas says
Susan, thank you for responding. I don’t disagree with what you’ve said. I’ve made similar arguments at other times. People have been enslaving and conquering each other since God knows when. I was pointing out that like Russia right now, the US back at its founding emphasized peaceful trading with other European countries. It is one thing to claim that ” all men are created equal and have a right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”. It is quite another to put those ideas in to practice. Certainly the US has been moving away from that ideal since its inception especially since it’s quest for empire after the Civil War. But as I said the inherent tendency of the nation-state is to lust after power over their fellow humans. Why they do this and get away with it is a conversation that has been going on ad infinitum.
Alex Thrace says
We certainly don’t have benevolent rulers now! Why Americans put up with it is still a mystery to me.
But China doesn’t want to “rule” the US but they’d be happy with the US finally following objective, fair and mutually agreed upon “rules”.
The cabal residing in that festering carbuncle we call Washington DC impose whatever arbitrary rules they like and impose any others and everyone else and the rest of the world has had quite enough of that.
Same reason the Romans did: bread and circus, only we add drugs and porn to the list.
The Romans, I believe, had porn. Not digital, but certainly erotic artwork. Of course, the difference between porn and art is (sometimes) in the eye of the beholder.
In those days, I’m sure Zelensky would have begun his career entertaining Caligula’s court with penis-playing on his lyre and ended it as governor of the Cretins.
The whole point of China’s (and Russia’s, and India’s, and Iran’s, etc etc) public support for multi-polarity is that no one country should be ruling the world.
China is big and will have influence; the US is also big and will always have influence too.
The problem is that the US thinks it is 1950 and is the biggest and only game in town. There is zero evidence that China or anyone else thinks this way.
Your question is thus irrelevant given that there is no evidence of China wanting to be the ruler of the globe like the US wants to.
Weapons engineer says
China would be a global ruler but they will set up a global order that will benefit themselves the most, which is one of non aggression and fair trade they don’t fire bullets, they out compete you and drive you out of business
They don’t need to build a country that makes money from CIA coups, 800 military bases, endless war and exploitation and looting of 3rd world countries
So, what are you proposing as a counter then…monopolar capitalism?
Don’t give the neocons any more ideas for catchy names to ideological manifestos.
Johnny Aussie says
I’m not Larry but I’ll give my 2 cents worth. The danger of China to America as they see it is the fact that China exists. It’s that simple! The existence of China is what will end American hegemony, no military conflict or other nefarious actions are needed from China, just a continually developing economy that eventually will catch up and surpass America’s economy and that moment has arrived and that was always just a question of when, not if. So American attempts at stopping the rise of China is nothing more than the last gasps of a dying empire.
When you have a well developed economy and a highly educated workforce and tech sector and a population over 4 times larger than America’s, you don’t have to do anything other than get up in the morning and go to work to surpass American economic development because sheer weight of numbers will do that.
Not for the first time, America needs to accept reality instead of always threatening to blow up the sand pit if the other kids refuse to hand over their toys!
If China does follow America’s orders, we’ll sanction them. Lol.
China could create chaos in the US just by cutting off pharmaceuticals and precursor chemicals. Picture Cleavon Little in Blazing Saddles.
Fractured Fairytales says
Just had a conversation with a UA cheer leader….he thinks (or picks up from the mainstream) because of China’s trillion $ trade with the US that the US holds all the cards with bringing China to heel.
My response? Don’t hold your breath…… America’s economy would implode in a month if China trade was cut off. Europe’s in a week. Pure bluff.
我們不是你的婊子 – good one Larry.
He who pays the piper calls the tune says
See how gentlemanly the Chinese are? They could have said: “we still own enough of your debt to make you our bitch.”
If Congress bans TikTok, an army of angry teenage American girls will storm the Capitol, and they’ll do a lot more damage than that guy in the Viking hat who sat on Pelosi’s throne.
Another fractured fairytale says
BTW: The Vikings never wore such hats.
Seems if the West actually wanted China to NOT send weapons they would NOT make public statements, but rather try private inducements. I conclude they are trying to send a message to China in case, the balloon message (we will spend tens of millions of dollars to destroy a (now useless) $10,000 balloon because we can print trillions of dollars ) was not received.
It all would be funny if it wasnt serious and sad and bloody worrisome for possibly ending all life on earth.
“The first time as tragedy, the second time as farce.”
-THe Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon
All that message would do is tell China to dump as many dollars as it could and as fast as it can.
AdMo West says
We ain’t your bitch. lol.
Bubblehead TW says
Sayeth Chinese ex-pat in Vancouver.
America has not done diplomacy since the end of the cold war. Back when there was a perceived “real” threat (Soviet Union, China etc.) – we used to try and do diplomacy (among other things like making our own stuff). Now all America does is threaten with sanctions or just threaten and bully. This is why you are seeing unhinged statements/threats/desperate acts of terr*rism (Nord stream) and posturing of readiness to sanction and go to war, even with adversaries that could clearly eat our lunch. Well, the adversaries this time are not getting scared off and are in fact eating our lunch.
Everything is a PR opportunity here, that’s all it has become. Think Blinken approaching Lavrov at G20 in India – instead of having a real conversation like, you know, two diplomats – we get more threats and more posturing. I mean why even approach another diplomat if all you will do is threaten? I’ll tell ya why – ’cause 15 minutes later Blinken gets to be lauded and cheered on CNN as approaching Lavrov to “show resolve” (whatever that means). It is all bling bling and no bang bang me thinks, we started believing our own CNN stories (isn’t CNN a CIA construct anyway?). Same with our lost Joe – why go to Kiev knowing that you will have to ask the Russians permission to fly into the war zone? Well, to put on a TV show to the dumb and brainwashed who don’t understand that you need permission to fly in. Why did Yellen show up in Kiev with a 1+ billion check? More posturing. Let’s face it – we are caught in a bad movie with 3rd rate actors and unfortunately, these actors are addicted to the camera.
Anyway, they are threatening China with sanctions. Good. I say sanction the Chinese and let’s see what happens when they respond by deciding not to sell us ANYTHING anymore. You know, they just cut us off in response. Me thinks three months into the sanctions war, when Walmart and Amazon are filing for bankruptcy and the poor are lining up in front of the ruins of local Walmart stores, in their Chinese made pajamas with their AR-15s demanding their cheap Sour Patches that provide them with sustenance, well, it will be a different world.
I don’t know if Ayn Rand had a crystal ball but boy, we sure are living Part 1 of the Atlas Shrugged story already.
politics is hollywood for ugly people…
you can add mainstream news to that.
Normally war is last resort to diplomacy , but for the US diplomacy is last resort to war 🙂
Jim Tunnell says
Great points and it is very clear when the US announces its intentions to destroy both China and Russia. I am getting the feeling those outside of the G7 really care what they think anymore. Very dangerous game the US is playing and my gut tells me if will not turn out well for anyone but even worse for the US citizens. Thank you again for all your hard work to keeps us thinking.
I second that.
I find the angle of China using the Ukraine to test its weapon systems intelligent and intriguing.
The US is a very real and serious threat to China. China needs to prepare to defend itself as best it can. The US Sher Khan and its Anglo-European Tabaqui’s are bully’s at heart. They ‘shock-n-awe’ only the weak and vulnerable.
Richard C McDonald says
The Chinese can send a message as well if their weapons make a significant contributions to the destruction of the Ukraine’s military.
It’s unlikely any of the big boys wants to test the best they have, Elial, why would one want to reveal the future adversary one’s trump cards?
It’s more likely they are testing whose offensive as well as defensive systems are best, which side can stop all or most of the incoming missiles and at the same time penetrate the other sides defence with all or the majority of one’s own missiles, not necessarily the best they possess.
Good point, Baron. Russia also seems to have hardly used its Su-57 5th generation fighters.
Haha.. An interesting and very entertaining read, Mr Larry. I’ll like to support you in ways that I can. If ever you need Chinese translation, do message me. I’ve lived in Asia for close to 5 decades now, I’ve done translation work even for doctorate thesis, other than commercial work. I’ll do these for you for free.
Larry Johnson says
Thanks so much. i hope you continue to share your knowledge of what is going on in Asia. I’m a novice.
Spot on. The Chinese are using the Ukraine fight to test their weapons.
These delusional Biden clowns don’t seem to have realised that America isn’t playing with the strongest hand anymore. China and Russia (among other nations) openly ignore them.
You would think that this simple fact would immediately result in common sense negotiations with the US carving out as much as they can, from a losing hand. But no.
It’s beyond the likes of Biden, Obama, Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland etc – none of them very impressive by the way (quite dumb actually) – to even consider that they are wrong, in any way. They regard themselves as intellectually and morally superior beings, historically important, who can act with impunity.
They’re nuts, and will cause a lot more damage to the US the longer they remain in power.
William Simonton says
Since September seeing reading and hearing all the military equipment being railed out of bases and shipped to Europe, I hope it’s for only maneuvers with our NATO allies Poland and Romania. But I fear NSC DOD Pentagon Generals and civilians will delusionaly think that moving US forces into Ukraine will frighten Russian to “peace table”!
Richard C McDonald says
I would hope they included a large supply of body bags in their logistics planning – we haven’t fought a foe like Russia since WWII.
They very well might. Watch, they’ll wait until Donbass is liberated and a bit beyond, but before Odessa is targeted. Then they’ll move troops into the west and start with “hey, let’s talk. You settle for Crimea and Donbass and we’ll call it quits, draft some docs but keep our troops here for a while, just in case.”
But then again, maybe even that’s too intelligent a plan for the mooks running the show.
Guil Lotine says
It is none of the sionist cabals fucking business! China can give whatever to whoever it wants. There ain’t nothing you can do about that except whine. So go ahead cabal trio and whine Bliny, Sulli and Nully.
HMS Terror says
“What the hell is America trying to do?”
They’re trying to split the China-Russia axis that threatens American supremacy. The circle-jerking echo-chamber in which they live and operate resounds of America’s decades long pre-eminence. They’ve spent their adulthood and careers marinated in it, and they’ll die embalmed in it. They’re no more aware of it than a fish knows it’s wet, and they can imagine a world where America is less than pre-eminent no more than a fish can imagine a dry life.
All that results in their conviction that they have the power to intimidate China – that the Chinese fear war even more than they fear losing Western business. Unfortunately for them, Russia & China have gamed this out. Past masters of the calculus of power, they’ve done their sums and waited patiently for the cracks in the American led West’s power to widen to the point where the entire structure is in jeopardy.
Russia’s SMO has exposed and widened the cracks further. Washington’s echo chamber never saw any need for doing their sums, and so they didn’t. The net result is that they’re consistently finding themselves either bewildered by the effects of their actions, or in denial of them.
Narratives that define a nation can live long after they’ve lost their connection to the realities that originally gave rise to them. Their death knells are heard first on the margins, like here on sonar21 but it can take a long time to filter through to a hermetically isolated centre absent a catastrophic, narrative ending event.
China & Russia, I believe are trying to avoid facilitating such an event. The repercussions are necessarily unknowable, and even if relatively benign (EG: the USSR’s collapse) will harm a great many people across the world. A harm which they would not want to be seen as responsible for going forward.
They’re trying to split the China-Russia axis that threatens American supremacy.
Tough to split such an axis with such a dull axe.
Umar Latif says
Kudos HMS, it’s inconceivable to me that the west has people like yourself and yet produce such an army of nincompoops political leaders….. for decades on end…..
Sorry but I don’t think hallucinogens even work on skinwalkers like Blinken or Sullivan. There’s no ‘there’ there
Paulo Guerra says
China has been collaborating with Russia for a long time and the way in which Russia managed to circumvent the sanctions as you might expect was not prepared on the 24th of February at night. The word help doesn’t even apply! China and India are today the main support of the Russian economy including in the bypass of Swift! And China is also collaborating with a lot of machinery for the Russian MIC as the US is tired of knowing! The US panic has to do with supplies of drones that are impossible to hide on the battlefield. Hence all the fuss from the US to prevent this supply. Yes, Russia has thousands of drones but there are many types of drones. For surveillance, to destroy armor, etc, etc. At the beginning of the conflict, in an interview with Scott Ritter from Solovyov, the issue of the impact of drones in this conflict was addressed and Russia was unable to foresee some needs that it has today and Iran’s capacity is still very small. As you may have already noticed, Russia has an almost immobilized air force because Ukraine still has many air defenses. New air defenses! And it only has these defenses because it receives all the information in real time from US intelligence and it almost doesn’t need to turn on the radars. And without the radars turned on it is not possible to detect the air defense. Yes Russia needs a lot of drones. Incidentally, with the swarms of drones that Russia needs, the war was most likely over. Otherwise how do you explain that Russia approached a shitty village like Ugledar in the open field with infantry without air force cover? And how does Ukraine continue to receive Western weapons after 1 year? Russia has very limited air force, with many planes only operating in Russian territory and needs Chinese drones! And everything indicates that he will receive them once again due to Washington’s lack of political ability! Because China is not just worried about the US in the international community. China wants to proceed with the Belt and Road and right now it is also at war with the US! Hybrid for now!
I did a modest amount of business in the PRC over a number of years.
They are extremely touchy regarding arrogant round-eyes.
Who else would sh*t a brick if it turns out the weapons China sends to Russia are engineered with technology pillaged out of America by Israel and in turn provided to China by Israel?
If you don’t think this is a possibility, what is Technion doing in China?
The Chinese seam to have enough of the BS
Interesting months ahead
Who invented gunpowder? says
Basically, they pulled out the chapter on full spectrum dominance from a copy of The New American Century and slowly tore it in half in front of Blinken’s face.
China, like Russia, needs to cut the cord entirely with this insanely belligerent Biden regime. Its government has already said “F*ck off!” in response to this latest US strong-arm attempt. Now it’s time to just hang up the phone and continue cashing in ALL its US-dollar investment “chips”.
Honestly, this government of ours now unmistakably resembles the Third Reich in almost every way. Besides openly supporting Ukraine’s Nazis, it itself has thoroughly embraced many of the tactics of Nazi Germany.
It CAN happen here. It HAS happened here!
Even in making limited amounts of expensive weapons. V1 ,V2, Panther tank.
the F22, F35 and B1 which exist in limited numbers make no difference in industrial War. I never understood how much War material US industries made in WWII. till i watched “War Factories” on YouTube.
I do hope the Chinese supply weapons without any delay. Iran should also deliver its latest versions of long range drones for actual combat testing so that Russian experts could fine tune their effectiveness and if there’s any issue help the Iranians to fix it. New Iranian long range drones of up to 2000km would do very well against NATO heavy weapons of the Western-backed Neonazi hooligans.
Does the US government ever think what are we going to do if China will sanction the US? All our cups, plates, electronics, clothes, etc. are made in China. Remember how there were no even masks when Covid started, I got my first pack from China, with a very kind note, btw. This administration is criminal, insane and delusional. Or maybe because our debt to China is so huge, the brainiacs decided it’s cheaper to announce the war and cancel this debt than to pay it off? Didn’t the French king pull the same stint on the Templars whom he owed so much that it was cheaper to burn them? It didn’t finish well for this king…
“Or maybe because our debt to China is so huge, the wise guys decided it was cheaper to declare war and cancel this debt than to pay it off?”
Of course, that’s right. But why are you presenting the true essence of the foreign policy of the United States and its satellites in an interrogative form?
Not only the Russian government understood, but ordinary citizens have long begun to suspect that the United States and the West are engaged in robberies around the world, gobble up three throats and accumulate unsustainable debts in the belief that the debt will never have to be repaid, that there will be enough military forces to destroy the borrower and capture his property. The Chinese also understand this very well.
All the hysteria around Ukraine is explained only by the fact that something did not go as planned, that the strategy of “raking up the heat with other than one’s own hands”, which brought the desired results throughout the 20th century, began to falter in the 21st century.
And who would have thought that the West would stumble in Ukraine!
And all because Ukraine exists in the paradigm of double betrayal.
Ukraine will soon show itself as a gravedigger of its sovereign.
Only pathetically compliant and cowardly sheeple wore face nappies/diapers.
And Covid? Stop being a covidiot and say what it was; a fake pandemic, a scamdemic/plandemic.
@grr – did you live through the original SARS? No? I did. And SARS had a mortality rate of >90%. Your attitude resembles of an old joke, ” I wish I was as smart as my wife after the fact.” I know people who died of Covid, and who got horribly sick with Covid and nearly died, so your bluff about Covid was nothing, and face nappies, is just as stupid as exaggerating Covid’s danger.
“original SARS? The first plandemic but a fizzer for the planners. 90%, Bullshit!
Cups, plates…how about toys, their only export according to some Congressmook I heard say maybe a decade ago?
People have NO idea that China makes pretty much everything, from low tech A to high tech Z.
Personally, I would disagree with Larry’s view that China may want to test their equipment. While it sounds reasonable, I think that a bigger game is being played.
China and Russia hopes to achieve multipolar, but if China helps Russia or supply any arms, this would not be beneficial. Other countries would see China/Russia as a bloc and a threat. But in reality, China and Russia do not want to form a single group, but wants to be separate entities in that multi polar world.
I still personally believe that they are playing like the bad cop, good cop. Russia looks bad, so China looks good. As the war drags, people prefer China over US or Europe. And China shows goodwill to Russia to bring back impression when this is over. So China would play more of a mediator role.
On the other hand, recently I saw some Taiwan talkshows, one of the points made was that, China does not initiate any talks with US. It is usually Blinken who would start announcing his planned flights or schedules with China who doesnt acknowledge that. China does not really seem interested for discussion with US (who can’t be trusted anyway?). So they would pay US news and information no real heed. But US cannot accept that. So they try to be rascals to attract the attention of China, and acting like a spoilt brat hopes that people will listen to him.
This is also US’s wishful thinking to smear China and Russia. They seem to have realized that time is not on their side, as NATO and Russia clash, China seems to be emerging as winning. At the same time, US cannot let the war end with Russia winning as per the current situation. So they start making lies against China to create fear so their citizens and other countries will not follow with China while they figure a way to “win” the Ukraine war, hopefully they do not have any bright ideas that has includes Nuclear as a way to win…
“So they start making lies against China to create fear so their citizens and other countries will not follow with China….”.
As always a propaganda campaign for foolish people.
I watched that Taiwanese talkshow too, and the host presented many times that the Chinese have ignored US officials ‘unwelcome advances’ to initiate dialogues and meetings.
This is because while Blinken always put in non-contentious and agreeable agenda for the meeting to make you agree to talk, but after the meeting quickly calls for US mainstream media and make wild claims that he Blinken gave your country official stern warnings on this and that, when none of that is true at all! The guest experts in that talkshow explained that the Chinese diplomats are very aware that Blinken is just trying to save face for his domestic audience, and if they release the full transcript it will only humiliate Blinken openly and exposing Blinken like that does not gain China anything. Therefore they only made statements that ‘such and such topics was not brought up in the meeting’ and end it. And thereafter avoid being used by Blinken this way again, which is why now everyone ignores him and other American officials who did such.
The Russians too, also ignore the US State Department now and other officials too, for exactly the same reason.
Quite pathetic way of “scoring points” by these US officials actually, sacrificing credibility just for short term perception management gains.
Beat me, Daddy, 8 to the bar says
Not content to use your decades of professional experience and insider knowledge to seek an alternate (that is, truthful) view of events, now you insist on mocking the Chinese! What are ya, some kinda rayciss?
“They’re our friend/biggest trading partner.” SLAP! “I said I want the truth!”
“They’re our enemy/biggest competitor.” SLAP! “I said I want the truth!”
“They’re both our biggest trading partner and our biggest competitor.”
[With apologies to Faye Dunaway & Jack Nicholson.]
I had the impression that this was strategy to show the US Neoconservative faction that even considering that they can erode Russia is a fools errand vertical series of mountain ranges to cross , with no end in sight.
The neocons have made it clear China are next, after the “success” in Russia.
Fortunately, they have not only tipped off the Chinese, but provided an opportunity for them to test their latest weaponry.
Good article, and likely prophetic.
The only question for me is: What kind of problems would China have if China stopped selling products to the USA? Would they have millions of unemployed people? Would China lack of some products they only get from the USA?
We have to see both sides.
If you look at the situation in total, it is only the West that made big activities by delivering weapons to a war party. China did not make big activities yet. Why?
Because they still believe in a settlement? Because they think time has not yet come? Because they are afraid of a nuclear war? I have no idea. But I fear that China expects the Westerners to be reasonable, what they are definitely not. But not being reasonable does not mean that you will loose.
Mainly because Russia are winning.
If Russia were losing, China would have to step in because a broken up Russia would have NATO bases all along China’s border.
I believe you view at a very broad sense. However, I think you need to dive a bit more into details. Do note that these are my personal opinions:
1) What kind of problems would China have if China stopped selling products to the USA?
As a country, this would reduce exports. As a company, if you suddenly lose customers due to govt regulations, it can be very painful economically. And if China says to cut all trades, it really means to cut all trades. Normally sanctions are carried out in certain fields. Even so, China tend to compensate those affected such as buying their products etc, which seems a bit different from how US treats their companies.
2) Would they have millions of unemployed people?
Yes, this is definitely possible. Certain companies that rely on trade with others may crumble. Other countries may also be wary of trading with China as this becomes a threat, becoming a self fulfilling prophecy of the US, that China may use such to blackmail countries. So even other countries may reduce their purchases from China, and thus may lead to even more unemployed.
3) Would China lack of some products they only get from the USA?
No, not really, I think there are alternate sources. However, it seems China do not want to be uncivilized. I believe recently I seen this phrase which China does not want to do: “A dog bit you, bite it back”. And more commonly, “An eye for an eye makes the world go blind”.
4) China did not make big activities yet. Why?
I think China does not want to look much into Ukraine War. This is Russia’s business. Despite how grand the West has made it look. This has nothing to do with China or Global South. If China participates in it, it is just making things worse. Eventually, China wants to help mediate and end the war, which the West will never want to accept (because the PR doesnt look good if China did what they failed to. They must sabotage any talks and then let the West mediate instead).
5) Because they still believe in a settlement? Because they think time has not yet come? Because they are afraid of a nuclear war?
If the West come to their senses, China would welcome it. If they don’t, they will let US bark (do note that Europe is still keen to work with China). China does not see Ukraine war as a big thing. If anything, they rather believe Taiwan is more important. And yes, China is afraid of a nuclear war, which is why it started considering stepping in for negotiations when it seems the nuclear option is getting closer.
While China is big and getting stronger, it does not think that it can survive as an individual isolated entity. As such, it is portraying itself as a country with open arms that can accept other countries and values. However, it wants to be careful not to tell others how to act. As such, its reactions to US are “keep your hands to yourself!” rather than being aggressive to others. Also, a gentle reminder that it is much more difficult than anyone can imagine to manage a big country. US looks prominent due to its big voice, but actually its internal politics is failing badly. China is trying to focus on its internal issues. Yes, I believe that a lot of negative comments about China may have reasons for them. However, China is trying to work on them. It would definitely help if people stop picking at China while it is trying to solve the problems.
I really like something former President Jimmy Carter mentioned:
“Carter said the United States is “the most warlike nation in the history of the world” due to a desire to impose American values on other countries, and he suggested that China is investing its resources into projects such as high-speed railroads instead of defense spending.”
I think its reasonable for China to concentrate more on road building than get too involved in wars. There may be a time when they will be forced into war, but not in Ukraine I believe. It may be the upcoming taiwan which I hope will not happen.
I understand all this and can agree. But when, as a lot of people see it, the origin of all tensions today is the US government, then there are just two possible solutions for China: Live with the constant threat or try to get rid of the US government. By the way, the same what the US government wants to do to the Chinese government.
At the moment, it looks like standing the threat.
Lou Brooks says
I think that is it …”Live with the constant threat or try to get rid of the US government”. The world at large is finished with the U.S. and the West, done, over it, kaput. It is now or never for the rest of the world to reign in the U.S., “kick em in the balls” and then walk away. At some point, the countries that are presently fearful of the U.S. will walk away. It starts with the weakening of the dollar…that is the key. Once the dollar is in the crapper, and it is on its way, the U.S. will have no leverage over the world.
Personally I agree too, if only we can get rid of US directly.
But on the other hand, the game seems to be that China and Russia work together to remove the threat in more peaceful means.
Russia continues to weaken US alliances, while those who leave their alliance will be welcomed to the new global by China. Chinese yuan will be the middleman instead of the USD until the multipolar world is stablized.
This will actually lead to the collapse of US itself. This is due to its heavy debt and mafia style of management. If the alliance is weakened, US dollar seems less attractive, people won’t buy US debts. As such US will be forced to default. They can try to reduce the expenditure to survive, but it won’t last long.
Even though it may lead to US collapse, I doubt white supremacy will be gone. Grandfathers and fathers will tell future generations about the “golden age” where they ruled the world. This may lead to possible future uprising… So personally while I feel that this needs to be removed somehow, I think the ideas in the leaders right now is how to transit peacefully so the people are least affected.
Hubert Monteiro says
Never, in my 46 years, living in America, did I imagine seeing the foreign policy of a once most powerful nation on earth, be reduced by a fake US administration, to sending its Secretary of State, secretly tap on Mr. Sergey Lavrov’s shoulder and say something like: ” Master Lavrov… err…, can I have a word with you?
When I woke up on Nov. 5th, 2020 and saw the results of what a mummified carcass, pretending to be our president had said earlier, in front of national TV, that ” we have put together one of the greatest, most unified voter fraud teams ever assembled in US history”, I never imagined that it would, a mere two years, turn into an irreversible catastrophe for the future of our once great nation. RIP USA!
Chinese are already on the ground managing Wagner back office for drones
Paulo Guerra says
Which is just what justifies the US hysteria! The US continues to think that it defines the rules of the game and the wars it provokes! Everyone can supply Ukraine with weapons, but no one can supply Russia with a screw because unilateral sanctions do not allow it. Well, countries like China and India have already clearly said that they do not agree with unilateral sanctions, but preaching is not enough, in order to affirm a multipolar NWO it is necessary to take the next step. How to supply Russia with something that is impossible to deny like drones because soon debris will appear on the battlefield on Ukraine’s side! And the hybrid war that the US has waged against China is an excellent justification for supplying drones! Another topic is the story that Russia is completely self-sustaining and most likely is the most independent nation in the world but the 21st century is not the Middle Ages. It is not enough to produce food, clothing and energy and no country in the world produces everything! Not even the biggest economies in the world as we all know! And it’s one thing to trample on the colony of Japan, which still says arigato and could also be one of the greatest technological powers in the world today. Another thing is China!
my guess is, the belorussian visit to Beijing wasn`t accidentally HUGE (to quote some obscure person of the past)…
Minsk will most likely serve as a hub in case thing go south- which i don`t expect- but some drones wouldn`t hurt…
FYI: Some very sad tidings:
Living on a Deadline in the Nuclear Age. Some Personal News From Daniel Ellsberg
Oblomovka daydream says
Yan Gagin (adviser to the head of the DPR) has addressed the question why Ukraine keeps on sending weapons & manpower into Artemovsk/Bakhmut https://www.vesti.ru/article/3231528
“Explaining the fact why the Kiev regime clings so stubbornly to Artemovsk, Gagin said that “through this” black hole “it is very convenient and great to write off all the weapons that they receive from their masters in order to redistribute these weapons among other countries – terrorists and other terrorist cells.” “Through this” black hole “the money they receive for this war is also easily written off,” said Denis Pushilin’s adviser.”
The whole article:
“The ring of encirclement is practically closing,” he said on the air of the 60 Minutes program on the Rossiya 1 TV channel.
According to adviser Denis Pushilin, hundreds of enemy manpower are killed every day in Artemovsk. “If we multiply this statistics by a three-month standing, the figure is simply monstrous, and therefore the question arises precisely about the disposal of the Ukrainian population,” he said.
Commenting on reports of the enemy’s intention to withdraw some military units from Artemovsk, Gagin expressed the opinion that, most likely, this would affect the regular troops, and not the very mobilized ones who would probably be thrown there in order to somewhat slow down the advance of Russian forces.
Explaining the fact why the Kiev regime clings so stubbornly to Artemovsk, Gagin said that “through this” black hole “it is very convenient and great to write off all the weapons that they receive from their masters in order to redistribute these weapons among other countries – terrorists and other terrorist cells.” “Through this” black hole “the money they receive for this war is also easily written off,” said Denis Pushilin’s adviser.
As for yesterday’s terrorist attack in the Bryansk region, where Ukrainian militants penetrated, then, according to Gagin, “these actions are very similar to the actions of the units of the so-called people’s armies, which were provoked by the United States around the world throughout recent recent history.” “I am sure that the hosts from NATO could not have been unaware of this action, that it was being prepared, about who it was directed against. This is a classic terrorist act,” summed up the adviser to the acting head of the DPR.
Ghost of Mozgovoy says
If the Ukrainians would stop anytime, their state would collapse…
As pointed out by Emmanuel Todd in his recent interview with Le Figaro, Ukraine was a failing state, all the way collapsing through the 2000s….
They just found a new raison d´être, a new hope, an extending balance to just keep going, in war, on the condition of being constantly fed by the West with weapons, pallets of money, and when necessary and the time arrives, as recently Zelensky shouting menaced and asked for, with European people as further carnage to feed their, and Biden´s, war……
Sorry friend, but international laws are the unique solution for a peaceful world. Obviously we are not talking about the current UN with its 5 countries in the UNSC that can almost everything. More countries need to have the right to improve their voices in the diplomatic scenario. Certain authoritarian rights given to developed countries must be reviewed and/or extinct. An agenda of economic development, environment protection and peace needs to be created and approved for all countries to give to them the chance be better.
Lavrov knocked it out of the park in this one: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rALJIjWrZeQ … lol
Good video. Thanks
i think it’s an interesting point of view. to complete that, the chinese could send also some manpower to operate the devices and acquire experience to train the rest of the chinese military. an ue ministry got a diplomatic solution for that: a soldier could become a civilian and be sent in war as a civilian, for western nato soldiers that worked. who knows if china got insignt of this method and wants to replicate it
Re Washington banning Tik Tok.
Didn’t the Chinese government recently pass a law that young people in China can only use Tik Tok for 40 minutes a day, max? Yes.
Does that mean that Washington is now seriously concerned about American youth becoming addicted to social media? Not.
I think there is another advantage to the Chinese if they defy Washington’s threats and send arms to Russia now. Paradoxically I think it is the resulting sanctions themselves. As the Duran people have repeatedly observed China is already on the US “sanctions escalator”. Any sanctions that come now were already inevitable. The sooner they start the sooner they Chinese can adapt to them with the bonus that the economic blowback will sow division in the anti-China coalition the US is trying to build. We have already seen that the consequences of sanctions on Russia are straining relations within the NATO alliance. I think it is a good long term strategic move for China in preparation for what now appears to be an inevitable war.
Very good Big Serge piece here for those interested:
I think there is another advantage to the Chinese if they defy Washington’s threats and send arms to Russia now. Paradoxically I think it is the resulting sanctions themselves. As the Duran people have repeatedly observed China is already on the US “sanctions escalator”. Any sanctions that come now were already inevitable. The sooner they start the sooner the Chinese can adapt to them with the bonus that the economic blowback will sow division in the anti-China coalition the US is trying to build. We have already seen that the consequences of sanctions on Russia are straining relations within the NATO alliance. I think it is a good long term strategic move for China in preparation for what now appears to be an inevitable war.
Lou Brooks says
Excellent observations Larry. Who, in Russia or China ever mentioned the Chinese were sending weapons? Same with the projection of Russia is running out of weapons or, Russia has lost the war. It is all nothing more than the typical U.S. / Western attempt at projection.
I do not know if the Chinese will send over shells or drones or whatever they choose to Russia, if so, it will be partially out of spite against the West and partially out of a desire to see how these weapons perform.
The Chinese are a patient government, and people, they play the long game and know full well the idiots that run the U.S. and Western governments do not have the industrial capacity to wage war. If the U.S. continues to huff and puff, the U.S. may find the Chinese lobing munitions on the west coast of the U.S. and the Russians doing so on the East coast of the U.S.
We will lose, along with Ukraine.
Curt Nichols says
Excellent point Larry. Yes. Ukraine is now Hemingway’s Spain. Complete with foreign volunteers and weapons testing from everywhere. Getting ready for the main event.
I also think the Chinese will peddle some dated ordnance out. From the early days of China and Russia cooperation when they used the exact same systems. I imagine there are acres of Russian compatible artillery shells the Chinese don’t even use anymore.
And unlike Ukraine? Taiwan ain’t going to be a artillery war. That will be missiles galore.
Have you seen this? PRC Foreign Ministry statement re: US hegemony. It’s a seminal document I believe and getting zero coverage.
Jack Gordon says
I was hoping the Washington warmongers would send Abrams (sp?) to Ukraine. I was looking forward to ubiquitous videos of the vaunted American war vehicle going up in flames and smoke. I wanted to hear the warmongers’ wan excuses for their failure on a real battlefield when pitted against a real army.
Olivier Sauvage says
我們不是你的婊子 == > We are not your bitches.
In the world we live in, this quite polite language, Larry! It can even be abbreviated in virtual code as: WANYB.
just saying says
The most important Chinese weapon here are DJI drones. Thier omnipresence have changed the way war is fought.
“Russia is making monstrous threats to initiate nuclear war to maintain its control over Crimea and the Donbas–like the dozens of equally illegitimate first-use threats that the U.S. government has made in the past to maintain its military presence in South Korea, Taiwan, South Vietnam, and (with the complicity of every member state then in NATO ) West Berlin. “
comments for “Daniel Ellsberg’s Not Yet Goodbye
March 2, 2023 at 23:51
“la doctrine russe est la même que la Chine et l’Inde alors pourquoi dire le contraire ?”
C’est ca, pourquoi ?
Fron inception “The United States of America” has never been “united” and hence to attain levels of security internally and externally “The United States of America” have always relied on aggresive coercive tactics and sought to “validate” their tactics by projection onto others, which in this instance may be “enhanced” by Mr. Ellsberg’s interpretation of The Presidential Decree 355 of 2nd June 2020, the contents of which representatives of “The United States of America” have been aware since June 2020.
The representatives of “The United States of America” have always been aware that “war” is not restricted to things that go bang from “We the people hold these truths to be self-evident”onwards, but they are presently becoming more aware of the world-wide deteriation of the potency of their efforts in “psychological warfare” as in MKUltra, which their opponents, including The Russian Federation, The People’s Republic of China, India and others perceive as an open not a closed system, an open system of communication and opportunities of mutual transcendence, not a closed system of subject/object “perception management/psychological warfare”, an open system facilitating enhanced sustainability whilst others are engaged in attempted closed systems of counter-productive closure – in the vernacular painting themselves into corners into which they seek to invite others “informed” by custom and practice.
k. talaat says
The Bolshevick Neocon’s hate for Russia, has always, dwarfed their love for America. What are the Bolshevick Neocons going to do, should China send weapons?
a. Borrow money from China to wage war against China?
b. Ramp up an non existant industrial base.
c. Gather every obsolete weapon, every LGBT that fancies being all that he/she can be and occupy Taiwan for a year, then what?
d. Kinetically take out the Chip industry? Then what? Thermo nuclear war!
e. All of the above.
Some one said that Communists are excellent at infiltrating and causing mayhem, but they suck at building any lasting systems. Could we apply this to every conflict in which we have endured their incompetence.
Face it my fellow Americans, we are cancer ridden.
As for the Gardner of Europe, it was OK to test your weapons on the brown peoples, now the yellow people dare to test their weapon on your continent. Karma is a very tough lady.
Jim S says
We are definitely cancer ridden.
The Neocons don’t really seem to love America, however. If you measure their “love” closely I think the number is really a negative. They really like Israel though, oddly enough.
k. talaat says
I feel you.
The recognition that NATO’s capability for serious warfare is a shadow of what it once was is slowly starting to percolate through the strategic community, which hasn’t been paying attention for the last generation or so, because its eyes have been fixed on Afghanistan and Iraq. But in fact the situation is a lot worse than that, and as often the real problems are hidden away in the technical complexities. I’ll cover some of those very briefly, to explain why NATO intervention in Ukraine is not really possible, if it were possible not desirable, and even if it were desirable totally ineffective, and even dangerous. Since I don’t have a military background, I’ll leave that part to the experts, and concentrate on the wider issues.
Ordinary life would effectively have come to a halt, because mobilisation would have required all of the resources of the nations involved. That’s what modern “war” actually means: why should the Russians agree now to some arrangement that causes us less trouble? Why should they agree to some kind of “war minus,” limited only to Ukraine?
So you have to wonder whether any of the nonentities who talk about being “at war” with Russia have any idea what that means, and understand how these days even the most basic mechanisms don’t exist to make it possible. For a start, war is not just something we do to others. This is not waving goodbye to the boys as they set sail to do battle in foreign climes, this is picking a fight deliberately with someone who can hurt us a lot more than we can hurt them. There are a host of practical implications here: let’s just pick out a few….
Excellent link, Arioch — thanks! I hadn’t seen Aurelian’s work before, and it’s quite impressive.
Perhaps my only disagreement with the article would be (regarding the US) any impediment imposed by civil defense planning for the public, since I no longer believe this government has any such concerns.
Other than that, it’s absolutely brilliant. Much obliged.
Yeah, just like the Nazis did in Spain during the Spanish Civil War.
Incredibly ironic that the US is warning China not to supply weapons to Russia while at the same time the US is openly supplying weapons to Taiwan. Or, as Brian Berletic (and the UN) refers to them, the Taiwan province of China.
k. talaat says
Incredibly ironic or monstrously hypocritical?
I like monstrously hypocritical even better.
re China: “The business of China is business…”
The book “1421” shows/suggests the great fleets China sent around the world in 1421 were mainly about trade and having the world pay “tribute” to China.
The follow up book “1435” shows/suggests the Chinese found Europe so backward and undeveloped that they sent their 5000 volume encyclopedia of knowledge to Venice in 1435 to try and educate the Euros so they could trade with them.
I met a Hong Kong person shortly after HK went back to China and in responding to how it now was in HK he said China is concerned with two things, making money and feeling secure. The Mongol invasions have permanently affected the Chinese (Han)culture, much like with Russia. Thus the large buffer zone of much of “China” around the relatively small Han heartland. They have never had an empire, as such.
I don’t believe they are looking for an empire in the way the AngloEuroZios have. They want to make money and feel safe. A win-win relationship, but of course they will win more. If they beat you in a business deal, I doubt they held a gun to your head.
Lebanese saying:”It takes two Lebanese to cheat a Jew but it takes two Jews to cheat a Chinese.”
Also give 2 thumbs up to Larry Romanoff (Bluemoonofshanghai.com)
One thing I have learned from several years of travel to Asia is, leave your western point of view at the airport when you leave home. Asian culture is very, very different to western, often almost opposite.
Eric Tunell says
The Political West is terrified by the change in public tone by the Chinese. They have unlocked the door for support for Russia that the West wanted to stay closed and locked.
It is the hint of a situation that will fully humiliate NATO on the world stage if they actually decide to move forward in any way.
Paulo Tolli says
Yes, China will send weapons to russia. To test the weapons and to send a message to a country that keeps threatening them over one of their provinces.
Richard Hansen says
Weapons testing in battle is a minor detail for the China/Russia pair. I suspect it will happen to the degree of just testing yet maybe not to the degree of contributing to the war effort. Of course our keystone cops in DC focus on hardware delivery as they run out of their own. China has already invaded on the US just by marrying with Russia and Belarus, a huge political defeat for the State dept. And the keystone cops, Sullivan, Blinken, Nuland, and Joe performed the wedding ceremony of China and Russia. China doesn’t need to beat the US with arms deliveries, at this stage they need to just sit back and meat-grind the US State dept as it comes to them. The US State dept. can’t fathom that their long range plan has failed so miserably, even with pipeline sabotage, arms sales, an owned media and a decade of creating a proxy government and the biggest army in Europe. The US state dept and generals look like whiney kids right now. I suspect they will write a stern letter to the UN as well, oooooh.
Winston McCuen says
In December 1866, America’s greatest general, Robert E. Lee, predicted how a large “republic” with forcibly and illegally consolidated States would become AGGRESSIVE ABROAD and TYRANNICAL AT HOME. He further predicted that it would all end in RUIN.
Lee was, of course, right. We are now there.
And, as Calhoun predicted earlier, the anti-Christian notion that “all men are created equal” would poison and kill America, morally and physically. Again, we are now there.
The lesson here? THE SOUTH WAS RIGHT — on EVERY issue.
Fulano de Tal says
How nauseating&vomiting …
Adele Penfrey says
The South was wrong about the efficacy of enslaving human beings to form the basis of a sustainable agriculatural-based economic system, however. So there’s that.
Legendary Hypocrisy. Neat how every move made forces any country that even thinks sovereignty is good to consider getting in line for an s-400.
If nothing else one must take a harder look at a country that openly declares the inevitability of war, even saying the year, 2025 for China.
Great link to a site never saw before, american finds Russia more in sync with his beliefs than US.
My gut feeling or intuition tells me that the Russians are already getting some Chinese weapons and are testing them in Ukraine. But in such a way that there are no witnesses of any kind at the end or that nobody will report about it. According to the motto: Out of sight, out of mind.
And that’s exactly how I would do it, quietly and secretly test these weapons.
I always start laughing when I read in the rotten Brazilian MSM, like Globo, Estadão, Folha with their stupid journalists, informing that Russia is losing the SMO in UKR, or that Putin is in “serious” situation inside Russia.
The man has more than 70% of approval among his people and the country needs almost nothing from abroad. Putin prepared Russia to defend its territory bravely, investing in technology and personnel. Sometimes I feel myself ashamed to be part of west with these foolish leaderships.
the pair says
well, i guess that’s one major victory over communism for the uniploar capitalist west: it brought china and russia together better than the soviet system could ever dream of. it’s easy to put aside petty differences when you and your neighbor have the same rapist psychopath walking up and down your street screaming death threats.
the west only has two things to offer china: customers for cheap plastic crap and a long list of countries it has spent ~300 years sh_tting on who would all like to make a new friend. africa, anyone? the entire “global south”, anyone? bueller? bueller?
Thank you for your instructive writtings.
I am beginning to think that Putin should change out his Minister of Defense. Just my humble opinion.
France and those countries with F16’s are now going to FastTrack deliveries of French Mirage 2000’s and F16′.
Putin should have Liev razed to the ground with thermobaric bombs.
Leave Zelinski a smoldering heap to rule over.
Within 6 months Zelinski will be razing Moscow.
He will use NATO pilots.
Those NATO planes with NATO pilots is what Russians systems are designed to shoot down.
The last fighters in Bakhmut. Old men and punk kids.
this acutally brought tears to my eyes…look at the left kid shivering in fear…and don`t call these kids punks, they are lambs led to slaughter for the zionist-run west!
Well that is war is it not. Hitler resorted to the same tactics in the end.
Punk as in child, not a man yet, not full grown.
Young punk etc. Dictionary definition. (Young, inexperienced person
punk kid A young, inexperienced person)
Save your sanctimony
It is always so clear when commenters have their pet cultures whose superiority is a matter of incontrovertible “fact” (in reality, faith) as their renderings of history are so laughably biased that it boggles the mind the level to which these fools are utterly incapable of applying any kind of consistent standards when evaluating events of history even when they aren’t completely ignorant of them. They probably need to read some “Guns, Germs, & Steel” & then go back to revisit their favorite biased historical narratives from the perspective of competing narratives, as multiple conflicting ideas can all be true at the SAME time because reality is not so black and white as Good Guys versus Bad Guys. If I have to hear one more time about the supposedly “unique evil” of American colonizers one more time on a blog that is supposed to be populated by readers capable of nuance & critical thinking, I might have to stop wasting my time here.
Jim S says
Look at it this way: if we can weed out the bullshit criticisms and accept the valid ones we stand to gain a healthier and stronger nation; our friends here who insist the US is the cause of all the world’s problems–particularly our British and European friends who would like to project their own guilt–stand to learn all the wrong lessons, if they learn anything at all.
Don’t let the door hit you on your way out.
Vallhalla Rising says
It makes sense for China to send weapons to Russia for a number of reasons…as Larry mentioned the UKR battlefield is a live fire exercise and no better place to try out your new shiny things than a real war.
Also China (Xi) needs to make good on a response to all of the Taiwan infringements by the US…sending weapons to Russia is a clear F’k you to the Biden miscreants and a clear statement that China will not kowtow to US threats.
Lastly, I think Russia and China (and others) sense that the Biden admin is weak, they also know that Western European and US societies have no stomach for a force on force confrontation with Russia/China. The Ukraine is bleeding NATOstan dry of ammo and military hardware…the Ukraine SMO could not have created a more favorable series of events for the collapse of the hegemon and the rise of a multi-polar global order–ironically, I doubt that was Putin’s original intent of the SMO.
People usually ask themselves why RU lacks in drone department? There is very nice article by simplicius76 that explains that RU is planning its army and equipment for total war, and in my opinion, drones are not very high on the list in case of total war against peer opponent.
Simply put, peer opponent will have strong electronic jamming/warfare capabilities, strong anti air assets, and in real wars against pears, satellites would most likely be destroyed first, which means that anything that is not manned by a person is in real war not really usable, at least not in a remote way.
Of course, cruise missiles and such are usable in total war scenario, but they are not remotely controlled but instead have pre-programmed routes, altho it is a good question of how effective and precise they would be without GPS and such coordinates that are provided by satellites.
point is, 404 AD is safe, as long as they get realtime satellite info from NATO for potential threats.
AD needs RADAR-ON all the time to be safely located. Hence no air supremacy, hence the need for DRONES.
Anything past this point, as decibed in your post, is basically simultaneous to nuclear war.
Ofcourse, in current setting drones are really useful, however, in real war against peer opponent of that level, their usage is very limited.
And ofcourse, real war against peer opponent on that level would most likely result in nuclear war at the end, still, it is my opinion that they were planning for that level of threat, and not for current level of threat.
Once Clownworld, a.k.a. Globohomo, inc. starts putting “Sanctions” on China, the actual, effective Collapse of the FUSSA ‘economy’ won’t be far behind; like in a few Months, not Years. Between the amount of ‘Debt notes’ held by the PBOC, well over 75% of what are considered “Consumer Products” come from China. If either of those things are Disrupted, (by either side) the results will be the onset of a “Depression” not seen since the ‘Wiemar Republic’ days of zionist-occupied Germany.
Just like their Inability to Understand the Russian Culture, and its views towards being Invaded, the (((parasites))) running the FUSSA also Do Not Understand the meaning of More Arms and Ammo in private hands than all the World’s Armies is going to mean right Here, when People start to get Hungry, and realize it was the ‘government’ that F-d everything Up…
i can only tell from a german POV- well, for germany, we are at a 600/1 ratio of import/export with China….
you can guess the rest.
Alex Thrace says
Captured soldiers and an appeal to AFU for mercy on their own people
Cabo da Roca says
China providing military aid to Russia would signal that Russia will likely reciprocate in a war between China and the U.S. One would think that possibility might reduce enthusiasm in Washington for seeking such a war, but as long as neocons are in charge of American foreign policy, logic and common sense will not play big roles in decision-making.
point is, poeple always talking about the window of opportunity as to taking out china (western ZOG idiots that is)
they mumble about a timefram of up to 2027…thing is: this is NOT about acutal warfare, as it isnt with russia from the getgo, but the probability of econmic sanctions to actually WORK, ie bringing about the collapse of the “target”…China is very aware of its shortcomings in terms of potential sanctions, ie softening out its effect by reversing industrial output to NATIONAL territories…this process is ongoing, but China REMAINS vulnerable in terms of economic sanctions…shouldn`t take more than 5 years to solve this, hence the panic in DC as regards to China…
HMS Terror says
This may be only tangential to the topic, but it is relevant IMHO…
Citing a CNN broadcast (that I couldn’t find), Pravda.ru reports that as of Feb 28, the AFU’s losses amounted to:
259,085 KIA + died from wounds
The CNN report purportedly cites sources in AFU headquarters, and corresponds to many other alt-estimates of Ukrainian losses. The losses are simply staggering.
The only corroboration I could find is a Jeffrey Sachs’ comment on his his U-Tube channel.
If this report really did come off a CNN broadcast somewhere in its international broadcasting system, it indicates that the US/West’s upper echelons are fully aware of the catastrophe and some of them are looking for the first navigable off-ramp. Maybe stopping the war “for humanitarian reasons” will become a theme.
Regardless, they’ll need something big to plaster the mediascape over, and what can be bigger than drumming up a faux confrontation with China? One hopes they don’t mismanage this adventure so badly as to get a carrier sunk before it fizzles out and they move on to the next pandemic…
Tokimitsu San says
A double headed snake. That is what USA is. Hypocrites to the highest level. Warning China not to send arms to Russia for the Ukraine conflict? But it is ok for USA to sell arms to Taiwan and station army personnel in Taiwan which is a direct threat to China. What a joke
What you posited may very well be underway:
It looks like the Chinese are offering a very clever “quid pro quo” or a trade with the United States:
China demands that the United States stops all military contacts with Taiwan and stops arms sales to the island, Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Tan Kefei said on Friday
If that is not forthcoming, which is a political non-starter for the United States, then China will have reason to send arms to Russia.
Larry Johnson says
Yes, I think you’re right.
James K says
China is not likely to send weapons to Russia — there’s is little for China to gain economically and simply there’s no need for them to piss off US/NATO that much either (refusing to partake in pointless sanctions is one thing, arming the Russians is another). Also China has no MIC that can challenge US/NATO military anyway too.
HMS Terror says
“Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, said that Washington was not seeking confrontation with Beijing, but U.S. leadership in some areas needed to be recognized”
The US approaches every problem as if it’s the world’s CEO. Its cup of hubris overfloweth.
The best messages ever sent by one warring party to the other have been by Russia to America…
– the defeat of entrenched “Ukrainian” forces in Mariupol at the hands of a bunch of cheery Chechen Muslims
– the defeat of entrenched “Ukrainian” forces in Bakhmut at the hands of a bunch of criminals privately owned by Putin’s chef