Score one for Nancy Pelosi. Despite China’s bellicose warnings of dire consequences in the past few days if she landed in Taipei, China backed down and Nancy doddered off the plane. Why China would undermine its credibility with seemingly hollow threats is a lingering question.
The Chinese tough talk continues. Beijing’s US Ambassador updated his version of the primal scream:
The Chinese Ambassador to the United States said that China will give a powerful and strong response to the provocation with Pelosi’s flight to Taiwan.
What? No more fortune cookie with each entree? That will shake up the United States. Maybe China will cut back on the monthly allowance paid to Hunter and Joe Biden. That is a borderline human rights violation isn’t it? Perhaps China is going to slow the production of Elon Musk’s Teslas or Lebron James’ Nikes. Nothing like a little economic warfare to let those damn Americans know that you are serious. No tickee, no laundry.
The mainland Chinese did send some of their fighter jets into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) (Note–An Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is an area of airspace beyond a country’s sovereign territory within which the country requires the identification, location, and air traffic control of aircraft in the interest of its national security.)
21 Chinese military aircraft entered Taiwan air defense identification zone, says Taiwanese ministry of national defense.
https://t.me/Aq701/15648
Despite this belligerent posturing, China so far has balked at imposing a “no fly” zone over Taiwan.
So where do we stand?
The One China Policy remains intact–i.e., the People’s Republic of China is “the sole legal Government of China.” Sole, meaning the PRC was and is the only China, with no consideration of the Taiwan aka Republic of China as a separate sovereign entity.
Biden DOD spokesman John Kirby reiterated on 1 August that the United States’ “does not support Taiwan’s independence.” In other words, the United States has not changed its policy towards Taiwan–at least not yet.
China continues to shadow box and threaten Taiwan. China’s People’s Liberation Army announced it would conduct live-fire exercises in 6 regions surrounding Taiwan in response to Pelosi’s visit. But running exercises, even live fire, on mainland China is a far cry from landing troops on Taiwan. It does not alter the status quo.
China is still plagued with domestic economic problems that are sparking unrest among the people. While China is still considered a communist, authoritarian state, it is still susceptible to pressure from unhappy party members and the average civilian.
China no longer harbors any illusions about the reliability of the United States as an economic or political partner in the aftermath of the west’s attempt to destroy Russia over Ukraine. Message received.
Pelosi’s safe arrival in Taipei is still a black eye for mainland China. A humiliation in fact. Remains to be seen what China will do, if anything, to recover face.
Andrei’s take:
https://thesaker.is/nancy-braves-the-chinese-dragon-and-wins/
The Dems will be insufferable until the axe falls
Andrei does a good job of cleaning up the mess in aisle 3. However, China did itself no favor by its faux saber rattling. Why? More likely to lead the U.S. to miscalculate next time China gets its hackles up. China could have rallied its people to the outrage without flying its jets around.
Could of course all be Kabuki theatre between the US and China. Can Russia trust China?
Yes , a very expensive fireworks display which impressed no one.
I’d love to be a fly on the wall at the high level CCP politburo meeting.
This has the same feel as Putin’s warnings before the Ukraine thing. Stern warnings, designed to be ignored by the smug US administration and its backers. What would happen if China were to declare that it is going to exercise its legal sovereignty, explicitly recognized by the US and the UN, over the territorial waters and airspace of Taiwan? It would cite misuse of its goodwill towards Taiwan by its current government by allowing political activities detrimental to its sovereignty. There is no crime, no foul if you are policing your own property. It may be that China is laying the foundations for a sea and air quarantine of Taiwan saying that it has a sovereign right to do that. Any challenge by naval or air forces of the US to this action will be challenge to sovereign rights of China. I wonder, did China pay Hunter Biden to surreptitiously nudge Pelosi to commit this provocation?
“Despite China’s bellicose warnings of dire consequences in the past few days if she landed in Taipei, China backed down and Nancy doddered off the plane. Why China would undermine its credibility with seemingly hollow threats is a lingering question.”
Why should we suppose that this drama ended when Pelosi stepped off the plane in Taiwan? This isn’t a TV show that gets resolved before the last commercial. Let us wait and see. Didn’t someone say that revenge is a dish best served cold?
Henry Kissinger once asked Chou En-Lai what effects the French revolution of 1789 had on world history. Chou’s response: “Too soon to tell.”
I remember that comment by Chou en Lai. When your civilization has been around for 3,000 or more years, you develop the long view.
Exactly. Westerners tend to favor quick-draw artists while Asians prefer the death of a thousand cuts. Pelosi’s trip, for her, maybe over but not for China. Wait for the response in the coming months.
This is Game of Thrones with nuclear weapons instead of dragons. Different kind of fire.
Wow. That witch ain’t playing.
Pelosi 1: China 0
Second half.
Asia has a different idea of payback. It’s rarely rushed violence.
When Putin says something he generallyreally means it and it’s usually reasoned through.
Xi is now facing that test. How to put the pain dial.up on America. Very tricky one. Far more difficult for them.to shift West to the rest than Russia
Remember what happened to the Wicked Witch of the West. I suspect Dot and Toto are Chinese.
It was a domestic politics move. I see my friends who are RINO GOP types who now think Pelosi is the greatest. Pelosi thinks she is going to live forever. She is bolstering her next political move, whatever that is – continued speaker of the house? POTUS? We’ll see.
These RINOs are real hard-ons for American hegemony, projection of power and all of that. They love giving China, Russia, the whole world (except Israel) a black eye.
1) De-dollarization will accelerate
2) Chinese investors will sell their US based financial investments over the next 3-24 months
3) Chinese will also be slowly exiting their US based hard assets ( real estate and industry )
4) Chinese might impose some quirky export bans (toothpaste ? Anti-Biotics ?)
The first 3 items will devastate pur Economy and inpoverish our citizenry
One alternative media commentator said that this is China’s equivalent to Russia’s 2014 moment. That may be the best way to see it.
I suppose they could prevent the aircraft from leaving if they wanted to, effectively making Pelosi a hostage.
They could demand a few hundred billion dollars in ransom or else they will send her back.
Very sober … how beautiful the world would be without you fucking Americans.
Here in Germany you are hated everywhere. The day will come … and China & Russia will stock you up with missiles.
Maybe, but not before your own government freezes you to death while you break your teeth on your daily ration of frozen bug and soy in the dark.
Oh yeah. Now I remember. How’d that utopia created by Hitler turn out for you folks? Thousand Year Reich wasn’t it? Germany earned a karma through that time that you still have not paid off. The United States in the ensuing years has not killed the number of people murdered by your grandfather. Save the sanctimony. I admit the failings of the United States. People in glass houses should not throw stones.
The Americans you hate are invisible, the ones you can see are just as clueless, confused and worried as you. Russia and China are correcting 80 yrs of plunder and bullying by the West. They’re our only hope.
Think about that when you are putting pieces of your grandmother’s antique bedroom set into the fireplace to stay warm this winter.
I’d say you couldn’t hate America that bad since you line up line trained monkeys to follow Washington’s orders.
This is a problem for Germany. The quality and independence of their leaders is low. CIA also did a good job turning the Green party into right wingers.
Ultimately, the biggest problem here is the EU following US/UK foreign policy without using its own brain.
Head of the EU is VL who was voted Germanys worst politician. Yet Merkel put her there.
Germany needs to get leaders to think of its own interests and are not controlled by the US/UK. Because those countries leaders will act the way they think is best for them regardless of the consequences to others.
So in that regard Germans need to get over this Merkel worship and look long and hard at their political class and the EU.
Germany is the 3rd or 4th largest manufacturing exporter in the world.
The US/UK will take 35% of that manufacturing over the next few months due to Germany getting involved in their wars.
Own goal for Germany. The target should really be your own politicians.
Unfortunately given human nature if it was not the Americans it may be someone else.
Also good to separate actions of regime from ordinary people who don’t have control of the state.
Not only in Germany, every single day they antagonise and alienate more people. Even their “friends”, in reality insignificant vassals, are turning, they realise the bully has met his match and that the words of Kissinger are ringing true.
Yesterday in the thread I posted the idea:
In the end, and as Michael Hudson would testify, it’s ALL economic.
Since China’s economy is built, largely, around manufacturing ‘stuff’ that is sold to the USA, she has been slow and methodical in the ‘dispute’ with the USA.
However, any sort of military action between China and the USA would disrupt that.
Given that fact, I would counsel Xi to allow Pelosi to fly into Taiwan under the announcement that THERE WILL BE A PRICE TO BE PAID. No China jets in the air. Let her tour the entire Formosa. Let her leave.
Next morning CRASH THE USA TREASURY MARKET.
Currently the USA 30-yr bond is at about 145.
Pelosi’s plane leaves Taiwan, sell 100 BILLION$, 200, whatever it takes to CRASH the bond market down to par (100).
No shots fired and the USA economy DEAD.
**
Today’s market action:
Chicago Board of Trade › T-BONDS Sep 2022 (CBOT:ZB.U22)
142.59375 -2.34375 (-1.62%)
2022-08-02 16:25:24, 15 MIN DELAY
Because China said they would respond militarily. If they weren’t willing to respond militarily, there was no need to say they would beforehand. Could be a factional struggle, but in any case, the issue is that China set up expectations and then has not (yet) met them. They still have a day or two.
The US said it would land Pelosi on Taiwan, and Pelosi has landed on Taiwan. Personally, I think the US would be better off if she was unable to leave…
The completely stupid journalists in the West will now cheer an (apparent) slap in the face and humiliation of China in their sycophantic stupidity. The USA and its NATO vassals will bitterly regret this stupid action and provocation of China with the Taiwan visit of Pelosi. China did not allow itself to be lured into a Pearl Harbor trap and like Russia before, China avoided risking a nuclear war. But now Russia and China will expand and accelerate their agenda against the West even more. The two countries will be welded even closer together. China’s reaction will hurt the hell out of the US and Europe. Especially to the non-privileged population.
Besides, Russia is playing chess and China is playing Go. The game started before 2014. Why do people in the US always think primarily of physical violence? The battlefield is the economy and currencies. The death of empire will be the fall of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Without the fiat dollar, no superpower.
The top leaders of Russia and China are highly educated, professional and intelligent. I am still searching for the right words for those of the West.
I just saw the following headline quote from Sputnik News: Nancy Pelosi Says US Cannot Stand By As China ‘Proceeds To Threaten Taiwan.’ (The headline comes accompanied by a photo of Speaker Pelosi wearing a lapel pin featuring US and Kiev Regime flags)
Anyway, her silly antics reminded me of President (and former U.S. Army General) Dwight Eisenhower’s favored response to those who counseled “doing something” at the drop of any political, military, or foreign policy hat: “Don’t just do something. Stand there.” More “standing by” and less “doing something” would surely benefit both the United States and the World.
A US military war against Russia and China would be a logistical nightmare for the US. Moreover, a nuclear war would be almost inevitable. So what else can the West do to China? Escalate terrorism. That would be possible, but it does not bring the USA a decision. It could only slow down China’s development and the BRICS+ will continue to push their projects. What else? Stealing China’s foreign assets? Oh, I then expect China to take over all Western manufacturing assets as compensation. Plus the western patents. The world outside the West would love to keep buying these products. Can the US go to war with 140 countries at the same time? Yes, a very simplified picture. But ultimately not impossible.
China understand America.
America is afraid China will be number 1 and they know China will outcompete them
It’s too late now for US.
So like an angry child US is kicking a can for reaction.
But China knows US is already lost.
So admonish and warn the child but it will be as it’s nature. Kicking water does not alter it’s flow
As noted, China plays Go, Russia plays chess and the US in its present condition would be fortunate to win a game of checkers.
China’s historical civilization dates to at least 13th century B.C.
Russian statehood is traced officially to the 9th century A.D.
America secured independence from Great Britain on September 3, 1783.
On the timeline of world history, the US is a mere flyspeck.
I would caution patience to those who view Pelosi’s clandestine visit as humiliation. After all, Putin waited eight years until Russia was prepared to exact revenge on the US. Never underestimate the long game.
Finally, I make these observations as a patriotic American whose ancestors fought in the Revolutionary, Civil and First and Second World Wars with full respect for the unique vision of our Founders.
Sadly, that vision has been obscured almost to invisibility as the Soros/ WEF/ MIC/ deep state/ neocon/ neoliberal cabal has wrested government from the people such that we no longer are a Constitutional Republic but government by assorted factions whose collective vision congeals in self-aggrandizement, depravity, greed and power lust. Fortunately, I do not have to wish that they rot in hell until the last moment before the end of time because, by their actions, they have assured their place in the Ninth Circle.
I share your sentiment.
You are dead wrong. US isn’t playing checkers, it’s playing tic-tac-toe.
This event was no doubt a humiliation of the highest order – by Western eyes. The Chinese think, plan, and act on an entirely different mental plane, befitting their ancient civilization, and I caution any hubris or proclamations that the Communist Party of China is wearing the world’s biggest green hat (戴绿帽子). I would also remind that China, both as a nation-state and a civilization, has a very, very long memory. Finally, I suggest that what China was offering with its communicated threats was an opportunity for the United States to humbly step away from committing a mistake with far-reaching manifestations; unfortunately the United States chose not to exploit that opportunity, and so history is written.
Ms. Pelosi’s act will be remembered and avenged at a time and place of China’s choosing. The only event which really happened in Taipei yesterday was an irreversible, tectonic step forward in the disengagement of East from West.
Wearing a green hat very specially refers to a situation where a man is being cuckholded… probably not apt in this case of Pelosi’s visit.
Chinese history has been thoroughly 1619-ed by CCP. The regime’s legitimacy rests solely on 1) delivering economic growth and 2) belligerent nationalism. Untenable over the long run, to say the least, which is why CCP budget on ‘maintaining stability’ (维稳) exceeds the defence budget by multiples.
“Score one for Nancy Pelosi. ”
I am glad to see there are a few sites which calls balls and strikes without bias.
I detest her but have said this was a brilliant move and the timing now is great for the other reasons you listed.
“China is still plagued with domestic economic problems that are sparking unrest among the people. While China is still considered a communist, authoritarian state, it is still susceptible to pressure from unhappy party members and the average civilian”
This is absolutely true to an extent that most pundits do not have a clue as to what extent.
The scrubbers for douyin the local parent of tiktok were busy last night scrubbing all the comments by the netizens who sarcastically mocked all the bellicose rhetoric videos from the two days before she landed.
Ive heard pundits talk about real estate is x percent gdp in China. If you have lived in China for the past 15 years you would say to measure things in GDP is the same as the idiots who laughed at Russia due to GDP. Its a bs measure. Real Estate is 100 percent of the economy (yes a little exaggeration) and its going to be next to impossible to fix now. The only way to fix it is to sacrifice the upper middle class and rich by forcing the HQ of all SOE’s and large private companies to move to various tier 2 cities.
Agree that Chinese rhetoric was over the top and raised expectations as to something would happen “IMMEDIATELY”!
However, I do not agree that the Chinese should be expected to go to WWIII because this booze addled harpy pursued her provocation. (FWIW, the neo cons are beside themselves at the success of this distraction: e.g. pompass, bolt on, boot, et al).
I do not believe China won in points in the PR war but my read is that they really do not care-they will continue to play the long game as Putin is successfully doing.
In short, despite the shallow hits on the PR front, this is far from being over and I would wager that the Taiwanese and ultimately the us will pay a price.
I would note an interesting thrust from:
The Sirius Report
@thesiriusreport
·7h
The common denominator in every flashpoint, conflict and warzone in the world is the US. It’s what empires do when they are in freefall.
Just because hostilities have not broken out doesn’t mean a pivotal moment has not been broached… I’m not culturally educated in the concept Face but I understand humiliation and insult and I understand that experiencing these things can fundamentally alter relationships creating new hostile set of interactions ,precepts of grievance ,that lead inevitable to escalation..
In Asia from India to Russia the concept of face or self respect is very important. It’s usually in most prayers.
In the West it was similar to honour.
To behave and be seen as someone with honour. By your family and society. To show your honourable and best nature is important to people
In the West individualism has largely replaced honour. And they west is still far more ideologically diverse than the East
This is also because all wars in Eurasia have been identity wars. Therefore identity is something to be protected, culture to be preserved
In the West culture evolves fast, identity is what ever you want to be.
Recently I took the Amtrac from Baltimore to New York passing through Philadelphia, Lexington and Newark. Boarded up factories and overgrown spurs along the railroad, no sign of production or manufacturing. There were concrete slab distribution warehouses facing trroads crowded with diesel guzzling trucks. Urban areas had run down past its use by date row housing. In Times Square, and outside the NYSE in Wall Street the homeless slept on the streets. This is the USA I’m told is a match for China or Russia.
There were beggars in Russia in the 1990s. And these beggars did not live on the streets, they were simple beggars. All of them were in big cities: St. Petersburg, Moscow, etc. Today they don’t exist.
What I saw in SF and LA shocked me. Entire settlements of beggars lying on sidewalks and under bridges. It’s a nightmare.
About the old ruined factories. Yes, they were in Russia too. But in the last five years, many of them have been repaired and put back in business. Rusty iron equipment has been melted down, old concrete slabs have gone somewhere. Things have gotten much better.
Why do people think China’s “face” is such a big deal? Or that they are even “entitled” to it?
The only people China’s “face” matters to are pretty much just its own citizens, whose WeChat messages criticizing China’s “lackluster response” will just get deleted / replaced with some “stern warnings” from the government about posting “recently forbidden content”….
All people are entitled to face. Face means honour, lack of face means shame.
The US shamed China. This means disrespect and dominance with no response.
Afghanistan exit and Iraq etc shamed America. The difference is that America is dominant and its leadership believe in neither shame nor karma. They believe you can ‘show seeds of poison and reap a harvest of nectar’ (paraphrase of Guru Nanak “you cannot sow seeds of poison and reap a harvest of nectar’.”
Xi needs to read Art of War properly. Know the enemy and know yourself.
He should have known that by making this a big deal the US was more likely to follow through especially as it has escalation dominance in Taiwan and the US did not want to lose face either.
To wave your sword and then not use it for the cause you removed it means you lose face, IE, you are shamed as a coward who just talks.
Age is also an issue. In Asia threatening an old women like that is also shaming.
If I was China I would start to support the removal of Guatanamo from Cuba or Chagos Garcia and make that a big deal with a state visit and Chinese boats near Cuba or East Africa.
Unfortunately China is no match for US naval power or I think air, I saw an F20 take off and my eye could not even follow it.
I think Andrei is right that China needs to learn from Russia on military strategy and even rhetoric.
As the English say, speak softly and carry a big stick.
No question China was shamed.
Beijing’s response to Pelosi’s Taiwan visit will likely show that revenge is a dish best served cold
https://www.rt.com/news/560105-china-pelosi-visit-revenge/
Unlikely that CCP ever regarded the West as a partner in either the political or economic realm. They have simply been biding their time and all this talk of win-win is a load of **** and cover for their Darwinian worldview. The goal has always been to surpass the USA, and this goes for any leader, no matter how ‘reformist’ they are perceived to be. The ‘Father of the Chinese Navy’ aimed to extend the navy’s control of the oceans to the ‘second island chain’ by 2020. Now, where might that be, I wonder??? Contrast this with a strategic partnership between Russia and Europe, which would have made sense from every angle – political, economic, cultural…
The hubbub from Pelosi’s visit was way overblown – pure political threatre from all sides. Xi no doubt found the sabre rattling and showing off of his nationalistic creds to be particularly satisfying, given the present state of the Chinese economy. Expect more live drills, banning of Taiwanese food imports (major DPP constituent), harassment of Taiwanese industries based on the mainland in the months ahead, for starters. Which then raises the question of whether we will see a third term for Xi at all, given his apparent priorities (nationalism not economics)?
For all practical purposes, CCP would never risk losing a military confrontation against the US, which would invariably draw in the Japanese. Flashback to WW2 and what happened when their access to oil was blockaded. Mainland invasion and control of Taiwan would be the modern day equivalent. Despite the innocuous-sounding moniker of ‘Self Defence Forces’, Japan would easily be in contention for having the best conventional forces in Asia. A loss in that confrontation would spell the end for CCP.
Anyhow, at least one party is pleased this visit went ahead – the Taiwanese press sound positively giddy…
Last but not least, disturbing to see most analysts attempt to draw parallels between the situations in Ukraine and Taiwan, which seems, tenuous at best – much as humans take comfort in viewing issues within constructs, frameworks, historical precedents, etc. To a great extent, economic linkages between US and China, built over decades (esp. elite capture and knowing where each other’s dead bodies are buried) precludes serious military confrontation.
China has no good options that don’t harm it. It needs to tone down and wait to see how things play out re Russia v West. It’s role should focus on support of Russia in any way it can.
The central value/goal of Chinese life is to make money to buy real estate. Chinese are buying a lot of real estate worldwide including the USA.
Xi needs to make the Chinese population angry enough that it is willing to miss real estate deals and possibly hurt the Chinese economy thus hurting the ability of Chinese to make that money to buy real estate.
In the short run China has lost face. In the longer run, this conflict surrounding Pelosi probably has Chinese willing to sacrifice economically to gain face. If so, mission accomplished by Xi.
While China does come across as whiny and blustery at times – and I don’t understand why allowing an old hag to come and go would have changed the political calculus – neither do I understand the “fireworks show that fizzled” sentiment. Did anyone really expect China to shoot Pelosi down ? Invade the island the day she landed ? At last check, China had encircled the island, with live fire exercises, *while Pelosi was there.* The US was already in the region. Why did the US put up with that ? Isn’t it the US with egg on its face for allowing China to menace a “shining light of democracy” ?
China screwed itself on this. Just like Obama’s “red line” in Syria. If you threaten to act if someone crosses the red line and then do nothing, you’re impotent.
China threatened a military response if the hag came. There is a military response at present. Shouldn’t we at least give it a few days before we declare that the US got one over on China ? BTW, Larry, I’m an ardent follower of yours and ordinarily ascribe weight to what you say. We’re just crossing swords a bit on this issue.
China could (should) just occupy some of the small islands in the strait that are currently claimed by Taiwan. At the same time maintain a PR campaign saying we don’t mean to attack; we are just entering what is ours anyway, etc, etc. See what the US will do about it. Taiwan army may try to defend the islands, but they would be easy for China to overcome. Will the Taiwanese or the US escalate to a full armed conflict over some tiny rocky outcrops ?
This would also extend China’s sovereign boundary in the sea to 12 miles beyond the islands. A creeping takeover of Taiwan.
The U.S. is dead. It just does not know it, yet. Octogenarian, highly unpopular, corrupt public officials can not change this fact. In ten years from now, no one will know who a certain ‘Pelosi’ was. But China will still be there and much stronger and popular than now. Not sure whether the U.S. will.
The China GDP per capita grows from $318 in 1990 to $11,188 in 2021, which means If you are an average Chinese born in 1990, your wealth grows 35 times until you are 31. If that makes average people “unhappy” about this “communist, authoritarian state”, then I really don’t know what can make average people happy.
Maybe immigrate to the U.S? Here the GDP per capita is $69,288, theoratically your wealth could grow 219 times instead of just 35 times. Unfortunately, the U.S. won’t allow 1.4 billion people just to walk in, because modern Americans are not like the Native Americans, who could be removed easily with their land and all the resources taken for free.
But that is not the point. The real scaring question is, even people like you, who believe in and fight for the traditional values of Ameican, who still awoke to the facts and not influenced by the narrative from mainstream media, show such obvious prejudice against China, just imagine how could other elites of the entire country misjudge the competitor of U.S. in 21 century.