While the US, at least since 1992, has been riding rough shod over international law and custom under its preferred “rules based order,” in an imperial pursuit of hegemony as arrogant as it is incompetent, Russia’s Putin has apparently been patiently filling out what it saw as compliance briefs and required paperwork during the same period of time, assuming the governing validity of international law.
In a major reversal from previous Cold War practice, the US and West floats even the most improbable propaganda when it chooses to offer an explanation at all, as we can see from the idiotic constantly changing stories about Nordstream, while Russian communications have been clear, pointed and detailed. One forgets too easily Putin is a lawyer and whatever contempt we may have for his education in Soviet law, he clearly takes legal restraints seriously. Putin builds a record, thoroughly and in detail, and is consistent in giving advance warning and then an explanation for his actions, step by step.
The “Special Military Operatio” seems like a rather contorted and constrained format for the Russian intervention compared to the bull in china shop American filibustering of the past 30 years. But there were lawyerly reasons Putin organized it that way. Although he had barely begun the SMO, Putin almost immediately recognized Lugansk and Donetsk as part of Russia because he saw that waa required under Russian law to carry out his operation, and alter and expand it as necessary.
It is significant that with Ukraine on the ropes after the New Year, Putin has still taken a considerable amount of time educating both his own Russian public and the international onlookers as to how America’s actions since its exercise of the Maidan coup of 2014 had left him no alternative but to intervene in Ukraine. And he had taken every action he could to avoid it and negotiate a settlement. Just last week, to her amazement, America’s distinctly undistinguished new ambassador to Russia, Lynne Tracy, was treated to a lengthy detailed lecture on how American plotting and bad faith had brought the whole Ukrainian mess about. And China’s Xi has used his ‘peace proposal” to carry the same points in conversations with Macron, the Ukrainians and others.
What does this have to do with the bizarre release of what look like 100 pages of authentic secret US/NATO operations memoranda on Ukraine? After all many have correctly observed there are really few newsbreaks here and there is nothing really in it that is a surprise to anyone other than the fact that someone was able to get their hands on the documents. So what purpose does releasing these documents have and to whose benefit?
Perhaps they make it possible to use US/NATO documents, rather than Russian assertions alone, to establish a legal framework and build the record for whatever settlement Putin plans to impose upon Ukraine. It helps prove Putin’s case that his intervention was required by an active and ongoing conspiracy led by the United States to use Ukraine to attack and subvert Russia.
In the world in which the Ukraine war began, under an assumed prevalent US hegemony based upon “rules” dictated by America’s inclination du jour, Putin’s “record” might have been accurate under the standards of international law but had no real power. And western financial and military power had subverted many of the international courts and and regulatory agencies to serving Western interests rather than those of the international community. But given the immense changes in the international power structure wrought by the contest in the Ukraine, the United States and the West is being dragged kicking and screaming into a world in which they are just several of many powers and no longer predominant. Russian diplomacy has skillfully turned the majority of the world against Western illusions of dominance. Now that the war is coming to its conclusion in a Ukrainian defeat that exposes the military and economic weakness of the Western powers, Putin’s de jurerecord may become operative and de facto in a multi-soverign world returning to standards of international law.
It has other uses as well. With the exposure of these documents Putin lays the groundwork for perhaps diverting much of the anger of the new Ukraine against the US and the West for using it in a proxy war that was not so much pro-Ukrainian as anti-Russian as well as advancing his case before the international community and the bar of history itself.
Gavin Longmuir says
So –Putin done it?
That is an interesting perspective. If true, note one of the implications — Russia has access to internal US/NATO confidential communications. That would be analogous to the Allies having access to German ENIGMA communications in WWII. Not good for US/NATO war planners — to say nothing about what it does for China’s ability to anticipate US aggressive moves in the Pacific (because it is obvious that Russia will share any useful information with China).
When the Ukrainian military recognize the implications of the US/NATO leaking like a sieve, they may decide it is time to force negotiations. Or is that too hopeful?
Pretty far-fetched allegation says
Without a deep mole, I can’t see how Putin would have accessed these documents. Once they were released, disseminating them, yes he’d have an incentive but so would thousands of others.
Fudge Cracker says
Or the whole document could be faaaaaaaaake and gheeeey.
Olivier Sauvage says
Aldrich Ames, Robert Hansen etc… The list is very long of Soviet spies in the most sensitive US institutions. A short study of it will convince anyone that many US citizens are highly sensitive to the attraction of money, thus ready to be bought off, even more so nowadays with the general retreat of moral rectitude and national sentiment as the citizenry feels deeply dis-enfranchised and dis-enchanted with the prevalent US ethos.
Furthermore, a recent US poll shows Prez. Putin enjoying increasing popularity above the 20% mark. This means a fifth of the US citizenry have very positive feelings towards Russia and its prez. You can imagine the security implications.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Russians have managed to acquire spies in all places of the US government.
Pretty far-fetched allegation says
On the other hand, assuming them to be authentic AND assuming Russia was the one who accessed them then keeping it secret and knowing the plans would give them counter-operation advantage, so why would Russia make them public? Makes little sense like most of the nonsense (coining MacGregor’s favorite term) we hear today.
Just more western maskerovka imo.
k. talaat says
Maybe you are not putting all the facts together, because you don’t have all the facts. Electronic surveillance has advanced quiet a bit. Maybe the printing and the folding happened to indicate a mole to cover electronic capabilities of the Russians. So which is more nonsense yours or mine?
Pretty far-fetched allegation says
True, maybe they hacked? Who knows? Only the shadow.
Perhaps it points to the fact, Humans are like water.
Water, always finds a way to flow, it is NOT possible to sever/decouple Humans from God/Nature/Universe. We are inseparable.
It may be the reason for ALL the whistle blowers trough different, time epochs.
Well the report is not compleatly true.
Ukr. soldieers are training in norway by norwegians as well, and that’s not mentioned in the report. There is Ukr’s at Værnes in Trondheim in Norway.
I would believed that there are more troops trained by the west, and of cource there are much ammuition left in the US and Europe to launch a big offensive. If it will be sucessfull, that another story.
If they are going to attack- of cource they are downplaying their own forces.
Backmut- it’s like Mariampol. Putin said, dont let a fly througth. It took the russians several months to break it. Ever seen Ironcad. Zhel himself has called the city of Bakmut a fortress.
City warfare is extremely difficult. you have to take one building after the other- go througth every room, from the bottom to the roof, and that the next one……
We will see, but don’t underestimate eighter side- that’s the easiest way to loose.
Indeed…interesting. However, the provenance does not matter as much as the results. These leaks are making the news — and people are reading them. Not that they say anything new or anything we didn’t know in terms of the US running the “Ukraine Show”. The real question, however, is : will there be a “counteroffensive”? The Russians are really hoping the UAF will try. They are waiting. Prigozhin has complained that the Russian command has not taken out the bridges that the UAF uses to supply men and materiel. There is a reason for this. a.) the RF may use those bridges later b.) they want the UAF to field equipment in an offensive that they destroy — especially now that they have degraded UAF AD systems and can employ air power more effectively. If Putin was behind the “leak”, then his motive would not be be prevent a counteroffensive but to create a kind of PR trap so NATO has to try. I detail some of this thinking here, although I do not deal with the leaks per se.
#julianmacfarlane #newsforensics #ukraine #SMO #counteroffensive #NATO #UAF #Wagner
Paul Greenwood says
Allies did not have access to all “Enigma” during WW2 – the machines differed and some had an extra wheel…….not all ciphers were broken
“WHY PUTIN MAY HAVE EXPOSED THE US/NATO UKRAINE OPERATIONS DOCUMENTS”
Speculation as force multiplier ?
For once I agree with you. Putin might not be the most fed-up fellow by this “SMO” dragging on. As I said before : it is not Russian documents than leaked it’s NATO ones and what it said … well , it’s not much help for anybody even if it’s not a load of bullshits.
Robert Michael Hope says
He has risen…
And He is pissed off.
With good reason.
Jack Gordon says
Really nice essay, Larry, succinct and informative. Thanks for publishing it.
Frank Chapeau says
Early on it occurred to me that if the West really didn’t want to launch an invasion, this would be a great way to give themselves a pretext for backing out. But this new batch of docs would be overkill.
Since those of us that know know, the real questions are:
1. Why the desperation to legitimize these documents?
2. What is happening this week that is creating pressure upon the servants of the war party?
Larry Johnson says
Tim Lever says
Seems a lot of coverage suggesting these are legit in MSM. Also, discussion of how much damage they are causing or will cause. The western press has resolutely avoided most stories with bad news for Ukraine. I think there is a suspicious amount of handwringing about this.
Ralph Furley says
Your point no3 is, by far, the more relevant!!!
-IC asset prints story about IC paper that an IC operative stole and released.
Sounds as plausible as that Andromeda yacht with trace explosives and fake passports.
Karl Gant says
Good question! My guess. RFK Jr announcing he will be running for President of USA and that he understands the Military Industrial Complex has been running the depopulate USA with Covid-19 vaccine. That info once generally known will keep Pentagon spokesman Admiral Kirby pretty busy I would guess. Kennedy has a certain score to settle you could say.
The C-19 Operation was not really about depopulation. If it, and especially the “vaccine”, killed a lot of people, great but they weren’t counting on it to really cull the herd significantly like they want.
The purpose of the C-19 Operation was to see how many people in how many countries would COMPLY with edicts from Authority. And how well their minions in those countries performed their assigned tasks.
The real, serious de-population events are yet to come. Remember Bill Gates wants a world population of 500,000,000 by 2030. So, there’s no time to lose!
I would again caution against premature enthusiasm on behalf of the Russians. The West is still supplying the Ukrainians, and most of their troops seem ready to continue the fight. The Ukrainians still hold large areas of Russian declared territory and the Russians are only able to take any of it back in long protracted battles for small advances. The Russian air forces are unable to operate at any distance past the line of contact and interdict movement of troops and weapons.
Bahkmut isn’t quite the battle of Kursk. It looks much more like the battle of Iwo Jima. Japan would have fought on for years afterward if it hadn’t been nuked.
I suspect Russia is much more cautious than we armchair generals and aren’t expecting a Ukrainian collapse.
k. talaat says
Where are you getting your info from? Clown New Network?
“…most of their troops [Ukrie] seem ready to continue the fight.”
The Russians haven’t began an offensive yet.
” the Russians are only able to take any of it back in long protracted battles for small advances.”
What the Russians are doing is called “let them come into the meat grinder “. The results are a depletion of Ukrainian soldiers and a disarming of the West.
As far as Japan would have fought for years if not for the nukes, go back and read some history. The main criticism against the decision to use nukes was unnecessary because Japan was ready to surrender. You know surrounded with no raw materials or fleet.
Maybe RoselliM is relying on CNN or Clockwork Orange????
Regarding the “unable Russian airforce… “, we can confirm that he is quoting the usual headlines of the official Unicorn MSM…
MSM wants to delete the Truth says
I was wondering what CNN was standing for…
I previously believed it meant Complete Neurosis Network..
We know what we are talking about!!!!!!
The Battle of Iwo Jima was over approaching five months before the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The blockade and saturation firebombings of Japan made fighting on for years impossible before the nuclear bombs were dropped. Logistics and numbers eventually trump martial spirit.
By late spring 1945, Japan was facing a complete blockade. No more resources including imported food. The only question for Japan was what kind of surrender?
While there is a persuasive argument that the Nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was unnecessary, even immoral, in the heat and uncertainty of war, the decision was practical.
Further, Russia entered the war against Japan as soon as Germany was strangled. And Russia never forgot the defeat to Japan a generation earlier.
Too bad for Japan that the military hardliners were unwilling to end the war and thus made dropping both bombs necessary to get the rest of the national leadership to sideline the die hards. Those two bombs saved a few million Japanese lives.
NO. many overlook something.
The two atomic bombs did not and will not have any effect on the Japanese.
What you are missing are these two points.
1. Soviet Union slowly invaded Manchuria. This scared the Japanese more than the Americans.
2. This is the most important point and no American got it right (if I’m wrong about that). It’s about the Japanese Tenno, because it’s the sanctuary of the Japanese. They wanted to know from the Americans what would happen to him. They basically gave us an ultimatum. They’re ready to capitulate if the Japanese tenno isn’t harmed (that he’s left absolutely unscathed). That’s the KEY POINT, otherwise the Japanese would have surrendered long ago and the war would be over if the Americans had listened to THAT properly.
This aspect has been neglected in history schools. The two atomic bombs were not.
I’ve read that between the lines of some interesting history books over time.
Expressed differently. if the American president dies, the next president will continue his duties.
But if the Japanese Tenno dies or was killed by Americans, then all hell would break loose ……..
Think about it.
No, the nuclear attack had nothing to do with ending the war. The Japanese records show that the cabinet meeting that decided on unconditional surrender had not even heard of the Nagasaki attack (though it took place before the meeting) and mentioned Hiroshima only as just one more city destroyed by bombing.
The Japanese had known for some time that they would have to surrender, but did not want to do so unconditionally for fear of the Emperor being executed. Their strategy was to make American advances from the south extremely expensive, and to use the Soviets as intermediaries to circumvent American refusal to negotiate terms of surrender. Soviet entry into the war destroyed that hope. The rapid Soviet conquest of Manchuria removed much of Japan’s industrial and resources base. The loss of Sakhalin, which was regarded as part of Japan’s home archipelago, was a psychological and strategic blow – Japan’s defences in the north were weak. The cabinet made this analysis, and decided that unconditional surrender to the Americans was preferable to rapid Soviet advances down Honshu.
MSM wants to delete the Truth says
YES!!! You are right Kevin!!!!
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were playing no military role.. Civilians were targetted to maximize terror. Two of the worst warcrimes of 20th century! Vietnam is not too far behind…
John Plumridge says
“in the heat of war” is a slight-of-hand statement. You may as well say for no particular reason it was practical, or because of a warring impulse it was practical.
And then, practical, means ‘gets the results’ or works.
So we have as reason for nuclear bomb, in contradiction to the situation where the Japanese were ready surrender (and yes the Japanese had offered surrender, I seem to recall); Nothing is certain in war and so an impulse to let rip with nuclear bombs was a decision that worked.’ Does that make it moral?
And if the Japanese were not ready to surrender, should America have used the bomb?
What if Germany, who perhaps had the nuclear bomb, at the point of defeat, used the nuclear bomb against the peoples (families with children, non-military) of the Allies , would that be OK by your rules of war then?
Anyway, look for evidence that the nuclear bombs were in fact carpet bombing of cities with no military importance of civilians, just like Dresden. Perhaps that evidence is compelling, make your own mind up. Whatever the case, it is always immoral. You fight a military arm of a government, not destroy the people’s families in order to win against a military.
Also look for evidence that Germany possessed a working nuclear bomb.
I shan’t bother to say why it’s immoral, but draw an analogy. It’s like a criminal holding someone’s children hostage in order to win an argument publicly and then killing the children anyway.
Ah yes, but here there is the risk of losing one’s own people’s life in the argument… you might reply. That disgusts me; its the only kind of racism that sucks.
Criticism of a racial group for whatever reason is fine by me. So is saying stay away from our people’s neighbourhood , women, and land resources. So is criticism of the people of the Talmud for their corrupting influence as a group.
Hiroshima & Nagasaki were projections of the USA mighty to Joseph Stalin. That was the real reason to use A-bomb.
John Plumridge says
Nonsense. Stalin was in co-operation with the allies, and had turned against Germany, that’s why Hitler invaded, after Stalin broke their treaty of neutrality.
Oh I’ll kill some innocent people of japan to send a message to a Russian state-communism ideologue, who happens also to be our ally, in case of, what exactly?
Let’s not wait until he makes a move against an ally, and then bomb his capital or military industries, no lets bomb Japanese civilians instead. Then , why not bomb Italian civilians too? Smacks of racism. Perhaps because of Italians living in US….
The allies (US) later gave Russia the nuclear bomb recipe.
Your take on the fighting, ROSELLIM, assumes the Russians want territory, that’s bollocks, what would Russia do with more land, she has enough of it as it is, 11-time zones exactly, what the Russian military are conducting is a war of attrition, they stay put, or almost put, destroy anything the NATO run operation could throw at them, look at the 17 major bridges over Dniepr, the key supply routes from the West (NATO) to the front lines in the east, not one has been destroyed, not one was even attacked and for a good reason, too, the Russians want the hardware and the Azov hatred filled men to come to them, then they deal with the lot.
“The Ukrainians still hold large areas of Russian declared territory and the Russians are only able to take any of it back in long protracted battles for small advances. ”
And you are making the same ignorant mistake as many have; Russia does not measure it’s gains in territory, they measure gains in attrition of men and materiel. Denazification, Demilitarisation. Once that is achieved they will saunter in to the newly retaken Russian territories.
“Japan would have fought on for years afterward if it hadn’t been nuked.”
Ok that statement is an outright untruth. The historical record shows that prior to then horror of the two bombs, Japan was on the ropes and discussing a suitable ‘face saving’ peace plan, however the “allies” wanted an unconditional surrender.
It is also widely accepted that the bombs were dropped as a warning to Stalin.
Philip Garber says
I think part of Russia’s caution is the fallout from the sudden Kharkov retreat which left a lot of Russia supporters offside and subject to reprisals. So the word has come down that RAF is not to take any territory which it can’t hold. Which means no more big arrows except in the event of a UAF collapse.
Mr. No says
If you use history as example then remember. Not an atomic bombs have ended war. But soviet army destroying japanese army on continental China. It is diplomacy move. Surrender to a weaker enemy, or preferable occupant.
Jim Bob says
Thank you and Heyoka for pointing this out. Succinct and to the point.
More details available by Glantz in Operation August Storm, IIRC
....and what about whataboutism? says
Crimea is to Ukraine what Slovenia was to Yugoslavia.
Donbass is to Ukraine what Kosovo was to Serbia.
Extraconstitutional secessions, blessed by the ICJ.
Whataboutism is to the Intl ‘rules-based order’ what precedent is to ‘international law’.
Wrap it up. Next case.
Mr. No says
Not really. There is more historical context. Bachmut or soviet Artyomovsk named after comrade Artyom a man who created soviet Ukraine.
Jim Bob says
You have no clue.
All perception depends on the point of view.
You can also see it like this:
Ukraine is to Russia what Slovenia was to Yugoslavia.
Crimea, Donbass is for Russia what Kosovo was for Serbia.
Unconstitutional was the division of the Soviet Union into 15 states, blessed by all the institutions of the West. And now we are only reaping the consequences of the blatant injustice of the “divide and rule” principle – to create quasi-states only in order to set them against each other and push them into a civil war in favor of the hegemon.
Donbass is for Russia what Krajina is for Serbia. Plans for ethnical clensing of Donbass are based on what happened in ex-Yu (and are made by same NATO people). Nazis tend to destroy Yugoslavia before moving on to Eastern Front.
If someone is releasing top-secret documents for free, then who will buy hunter biden’s paintings, with 10 percent for the big guy?
Bazooka bubble gum says
I’m dreaming dreams,
I’m scheming schemes,
I’m building castles high.
I’m forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air,
They fly so high,
Nearly reach the sky,
Then like my dreams,
They fade and die.
Fortune’s always hiding,
I’ve looked everywhere,
I’m forever blowing bubbles,
Pretty bubbles in the air.
Boss Hogg says
Who will buy?…. Maybe those who invested in Burisma???
Girsl under 18yo????
– If the documents are genuine (or at least some of them are*), that creates one set of headaches and issues
– if the documents are not (or partially not*), and RF knows that, and released them (after obtaining them), that creates another set of headaches.
One could even envision a scenario where RF has indeed obtained certain genuine documents, and then *creates* false ones (or vice versa), or alters the genuine (and/or false) documents with a particular objective in mind (e.g., a data point such as # of SOF/US personnel in Ukraine, or # of 155mm rounds en route, etc.).
*Mix the ice cream in with the bullshit
Larry: “Perhaps they make it possible to use US/NATO documents, rather than Russian assertions alone, to establish a legal framework and build the record for whatever settlement Putin plans to impose upon Ukraine.”
That is the first opinion I’ve read that offers a reasonable “Qui bono”.
Putin has, since Russia’s ‘ultimatum’ of December 2021, made a legal case for the SMO up to and including the elections in the Oblasts of Donets, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
I don’t know if it is true or not, but it is a shoe that fits Putin’s foot.
k. talaat says
It could simply be the smoking gun for the court of world opinion. “See, there, I was telling you the truth and the Nord Stream Bomber was lying to you all along.”
I have a feeling the legal prosecution of Trump ordered by the Nord Stream Bomber will become a self inflicted curse when he is beaten out of office by a Republican President.
More likely he will be declared mentally unfit for prosecution.
Just FYI, Larry didn’t write this article.
This is the best explanation I’ve heard so far.
And gives credence to Russia’s assertions of NATO operating in Ukraine. Yeah we knew that but now it’s basically straight from the horse’s mouth.
This statement should be corrected: “Although he had barely begun the SMO, Putin almost immediately recognized Lugansk and Donetsk as part of Russia”. In fact, Russia recognized the respective declaration of independence of the republics of Luganks and Donest two days BEFORE the start of the SMO. Precisely, a demonstration of Russian interest in legally covering its intervention. Thanks and regards, Larry!
I guess Larry was referring to last September’s referenda in the 4 new Russian regions (which is worth recalling were announced not accidentally immediately after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit which took place last August.)
Larry Johnson says
The article’s author is Thomas Lipscomb, not Larry Johnson.
Thats gotta hurt!
the blame-e says
Yeah, ’cause Lipscomb is such a better writer. [sarcasm]
A. Dane says
Thanks for the heads up Larry.
Maybe Thomas could have use the following headline:
Why the US/NATO Leaks justifies Putin´s actions in Ukraine, according to international law.
Bob Jackson says
Good precis. It doesn’t really matter who leaked the documents (and if Russia leaked them, why weren’t they squelched?).
What matters is who has to backtrack once they’re in the public arena. In the early days of the SMO, the Saker jeered constantly at Russia’s incompetence at propaganda.
But, a year on, most everything the Russians said still holds true, while NATO countries are boasting of all they once denied doing.
Tortoise and the hare, tortoise and the hare.
Paulo Guerra says
Russia recognizes the two Republics so it can trigger Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations to stop an imminent attack as per OSCE reports. Like US in Kosovo and what’s good for the goose is good for the goose as Larry used to say. Russia is the most legalistic nation on earth! Russia never enters a country without some reason covered by international law. Like Sirya’s cry for help! The US is more like a horse and a hat and Collin Powell telling stories at the UNSC! More terrorists!
Really one of Putin’s major weaknesses is his belief in the law. His faith in laws and written documents is what enabled the west to hoodwink him with the Minsk agreements. Same for him going into this SMO without the manpower to really prosecute the war, he really believed that he could negotiate a solution to this and it took him forever to finally give up on dealing with the west. He still doesn’t seem to understand that on the international scene “might makes right” is what always has been the standard and really always will. Agreements are really only worth the paper they are printed on is both sides have the power to enforce the agreement.
Definitely. Coupled with his own pro-Westernism (especially his cultural admiration for Germany) which, at certain times, seemed like a complex. For the good of Russia, that ended.
I adore English literature, beginning with Shakespeare. I can read the same thing over and over again. Unfortunately, only in translation.
Can I be reproached for being assholes and worshiping the Anglo-Saxons and the policies of the Rodschilds of London and the Rockefellers of Washington?
Putin once uttered a famous phrase, albeit on a different occasion: “Flies – separately. Cutlets – separately.”
I suppose Putin aimed at starting as he means to go on.
He and the Chinese can see what duplicity in politics leads to: short term gain followed by long lasting enmity from your victims and eventual downfall.
And it’s practically impossible to steer a project started with evil methods, towards something more wholesome which generates trust in your allies.
The whole conflict is very painful and difficult for Russia now but it’ll become easier the more undecided countries join Russia’s allies. The non western world won’t let Russia fail.
Treasure of the Neo-cadre says
Law? Law? We don’t need no stinkin’ law!
John Connor says
Where are your badges?
We don’t need no stinkin’ badges!
Putin is sticking to the law because he is not a hypocrite, or cannot afford that luxury. He (and Xi) want to end the rules based order and for all countries to adhere to international laws and customs. That is not going to work if he goes all “American” on the world.
Guess exceptionalism is a subconscious habit hard to irradicate even among the best westerner.
This article assumes, without caveat:
– Russia still cared for those who want to butcher it and reduce it into multiple gas stations of 50mn slav(e) s.
– The rest of the world has not yet already choosen their sides.
(India, Sauds, Malaysia, Indonesia, south Africa, uganda, Turkey etc had taken clear action but the five eyes’ citizens just can’t see it even if they try.)
I live in a five eyes country, the few of us that can see what’s happening and how evil the west is can’t do anything our leaders are cowards when it comes to America, We will destroy our own economy in Americas war against China just like the Germans did in the American War against Russia, The American neocons are totally evil, they need hanging from rope until dead not the one that breaks the neck instant death but the one that chokes the living daylights out of them.
@ chola3 5 Eyes resident here bud . . . there are shit loads of us here in New ‘ealand (& Aussie) who are W-I-D-E awake to the predations of the Empire of Lies, support Russia, etc. But overall most are watching Tel-Lie-Vision, absorbing the 6 o’clock news as though it’s the be all & end all of truth & lining up for their 37th booster shot. Me?? I’m waiting for the tails to start growing out of the multi boosted (sarc), the US dollar to bite the dust & for Biden, Clinton, Obomba, Pelosi, Schwab et al unable to travel due to fear of imprisonment/execution.
the blame-e says
So, if Brandon discovers that Russia released the “leaked intelligence,” the question could be how did Russia come into possession of this “leaked intelligence?”
Russia leaking the leaked intelligence documents — the validity of which is still uncertain — to make Putin’s case for the SMO is still only a side show. The main event is Russia not only winning Bakhmut but all of the Ukraine. And this is still quite a ways off.
The war of attrition must be won. The Ukrainian army routed and annihilated. The mercenaries unceremoniously wiped out. And then the Russian military must then take all of the Ukraine, right up to the Polish border.
And even then, the SMO may not be complete. The United States may decide to come to the aid of the “Ukrainian Martyrs.” The United States may just decide to invade Ukraine regardless. Putin has repeatedly said that the Ukraine / Russia “conflict” is not Afghanistan. The United States has gone one proxy war too far and can expect this “conflict” to follow them all the way back to the continental United States. According to Putin, the days of the bully retreating back to the continent are over. There is no reason not to believe Putin.
With all this in mind, and taking everything into account, these leaked intelligence documents don’t amount to much. At least not right now.
Most of the discussion on the leaked documents to date has been about whether the leaked material is legitimate or Russian disinformation … based on little else than the acronyms in the headers (only US insiders, as it were, would understand the acronyms). But it’s strange that no commentator I have run across has focused on the quality of the content of the leaked documents: Is the alleged US intelligence information accurate, insightful, false, or confused garbage?
If accurate, the leaks might induce paranoia among the leadership of the US Department of Defense from learning there is a mole in their midst. It might provoke them to limit the intelligence that they share with the “Five Eyes” and NATO. If the leaks are garbled nonsense, the US Department of Defense is the victim of public humiliation for falling for the scam. In either case, the Russians win with a propaganda “reposte” that leaves the impression that the US military is as incompetent in military planning as it has been on the battlefield.
Ronald Keel says
The big tell is if Russia didn’t have other deeper reasons for their methodology in this lengthy offensive they would have rolled thru Ukraine like the proverbial hot knife thru butter.
Cato the Uncensored says
I have only seen this third-hand, but Lynne Tracey, the US Ambassador to Russia reportedly said the following:
“”I have visited many countries, talked with different leaders, but only next to Putin did I feel uncomfortable. It felt like I wasn’t in charge here, but he was. Never experienced this before. Very unpleasant. ”
Tired Man says
Begs the question, what should make her feel entitled to be in charge in the first place?
As a servant in Moscow, non the less.
Stefan G says
“… It felt like I wasn’t in charge here,…”
So she allways felt that she was in charge when dealing with foreign diplomats and leaders. Is it not interesting, that she did not notice that her observation of the reality that was provided to her, was focused on her or respectedly the US because everyone wanted something from her or the US?
Then she comes to Russia and: Boom. Suddenly it is not about the US and what the US can do for Russia, so not like it was in the her past and she feels uncomfortable! How surprising. I mean, how can one be so stupid to not expect this?
And then she, as US Ambasador to Russia complaints about it openly. Does a diplomat is supposed to do that? I thought it is to keep diplomatic relations to other countries and not to put them into a bad light and make politics at home.
Tired Man nailes it! So why did she expect to be in charge when dealing with Russia? She must be living in a dream world. But for them, that it is now, is it not?
It is laughable – but what can I say? I am living in a country where the ‘Mistress of Foreign Affairs’ name is Baerbock. In acting to be laughed about she is in the lead.
Assuming Russia and or China have access to top secret materials like this, it’s conceivable that revealing this ability achieves a sort of deterrence.
In other words, if the intent is to deter the West from initiating more insane provocations, releasing this material (that doesn’t apparently contain much damaging content) could very well fill the West w doubts and hesitation about whether their super duper secret plans to stage a false flag nuke etc… will be known and exposed by Moscow.
The idea is not to gain an advantage on the battlefield but to avoid a battle altogether.
The idea is not to gain an advantage on the battlefield but to avoid a battle altogether. — GinnedUp
What the leak reveals about Ukraine is just how desperate their military situation is.
Supposedly, NATO has ~120k troops around Ukraine’s borders. There have been rumors of ~300k troops available to NATO. And now, beginning April 22nd, two NATO exercises, one on the ground and one in the air (largest ever, 200+ aircraft), are set to begin. The US is shipping in more equipment and activating its pre-positioned supplies…
All to demonstrate NATO’s Article 5 response to an unknown aggressor.
Perhaps Juan Valdez is right…
Capabilities, not stated intentions, are the coin of the realm in military affairs. Russia is holding its recently mobilized troops in reserve for a reason.
Juan Valdez says
This doesn’t matter.
Nothing really matters anymore, because we are inexorably moving toward WWIII and the end of everything.
All of the gleeful comments about the U.S. being dethroned don’t matter.
All of the horribly misguided folks looking to Russia/China to “save” the world don’t matter.
The United States of America is not about to curl up in a ball and allow anyone to mess with our stated position of “Full Spectrum Dominance”.
Wall Street can’t allow it.
The political class can’t allow it.
The MIC can’t allow it.
In other words, all of the people who have their hands of the levers of power and derive all of their wealth from the status quo cannot allow it.
We’ve spent untold TRILLIONS of $ for decades building up the ultimate hammer, and all of this looks like a bunch of nails that need a good pounding.
I’m not a military person, nor am I any sort of geopolitical expert. But I know what I can plainly see. And what I see coming is something only God himself can stop.
I wish I was wrong.
But I’m not.
May God have mercy on us all.
Yeah, I’ve dealt with you “the sky is falling” types all my life. You may be able to plainly see, but since you are not a military person or a geopolitical expert you cannot properly interpret.
Did you ever consider what happens to the civilian leadership of a nation the day its policies result in the deaths of the families of the colonels and lower officers of the military? Didn’t think so.
Did you ever consider what happens to the civilian leadership of a nation the day its policies result in the devestation of the wealth of the oligarchical class? Didn’t think so.
Do you know why the Conservative Party actually chose Winston Churchill over Lord Halifax to lead the British government in 1940? Didn’t think so.
Do you know why Japan surrendered to the United States in August of 1945? Didn’t think so.
You are a fear-based personality, the wet-dream of any government and the bane of a free people.
Juan Valdez says
>”Yeah, I’ve dealt with you “the sky is falling” types all my life.”
You mean, like these guys?
A time of unprecedented danger:
It is 90 seconds to midnight
2023 Doomsday Clock Statement
Science and Security Board
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
UN chief warns world is one step from `nuclear annihilation’
Daniel Ellsberg on Nuclear War and Ukraine
“[Nuclear war] is currently a more imminent possibility than the world has seen since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.”
Yeah, just a bunch of “the sky is falling” types. What do they know, right?
>”Did you ever consider what happens to the civilian leadership of a nation the day its policies result in the deaths of the families of the colonels and lower officers of the military?”
The people who rule us could not care less about me, you, or anyone else. That has to be clear to you. They’re psychopathic mass murderers who are prepared to go underground with the military and any other people deemed to be important enough. You didn’t get an invite. What do you think they’ve spent untold trillions of $ on for decades?
And in case you missed the whole Covid thing, the vast majority of people can’t figure out anything and just believe what they’re told and do what they’re told.
>”You are a fear-based personality, the wet-dream of any government and the bane of a free people.”
As Goethe said, “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.”
And as Frank Zappa observed, “The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.”
It’s pretty clear we’re starting to see the brick wall. They aren’t even trying to hide it anymore.
And if you think the U.S. with it’s global Navy, nuclear subs, God knows what kind of weapons in orbit, and 800 military bases worldwide is going to let Russia/China displace it, you’re living on Fantasy Island.
You didn’t answer his questions.
I think what you say is spot on, except that we must consider all possibilities for the inevitable outcome — what if in reality-land there is no supreme being?
After all, do recent and current, rapidly deteriorating events point more toward a “world” that is being controlled/guided by a supreme being, or one that is NOT being controlled/guided by a supreme being (in other words, a world, a planet called earth, on which humanity is on its own, and whose ultimate fate, good or bad, humanity itself will decide)? Which equally possible reality is scarier?
Whether or not there is a “supreme being” is probably irrelevant here: In the Christian faith, man has been given full stewardship of planet earth by God. Nowhere in scripture does it say that the Good Lord himself would intervene or even instigate a “Second Coming” if man well and truly fvcked up.
We`re on our own on this one: “May the Lord help us” is almost certainly wishful thinking.
Stefan G says
This is fatalism, which takes away all hope!.
God gives us hope an enables us to beat evil!
Do not despair!
Juan Valdez says
> “This is fatalism, which takes away all hope!”
You might consider this scene, from the movie, ‘Titanic’:
Smith: The pumps… if we opened the doors…
Thomas Andrews: [interrupting] The pumps buy you time, but minutes only. From this moment, no matter what we do, Titanic will founder.
Ismay: [incredulously] But this ship can’t sink!
Thomas Andrews: She’s made of iron, sir! I assure you, she can… and she will. It is a mathematical certainty.
This seems like a very reasonable proposition. Better than a naïve Reality Winner type leaker who will get discovered by hidden watermarks or the properties of the documents themselves. So, now we are left with next Matryoshka doll: how Russian intelligence pulled it off? If it is a CHS, then they still could face the same fate as Winner, unless they are already across the Russian border or are deceased. It is a messy battlefield, so maybe some US intelligence asset was in the wrong location with the data on a smart phone or pen drive? Time will tell I suppose…
Why would the NYT try to upsell the notion that dissidents in the IC leaked these documents?
It fits nicely with Hollande recently admitting the Minsk Agreement was a ruse.
Kinzhals at twenty paces. says
Hollande said it twice, the second admitting (to the faux Poroshenko) that he was in on the whole thing even before Maidan. (if I understood correctly)
Strange stuff from a Frenchman, where 150 years ago such an insult would have been akin to having the gauntlet thrown down for being a lying mongrel. Russians are sort of old-fashioned that way.
Here is an interesting twist… a sort of head nod towards Russia…from of all actors:
Poland. Have no idea how representative the article is of the state intentions.
“De-nazify” Poland. Maybe written by a real estate developer….. carve up the UKR rump state…
Bill Osborne Jr says
The person who acquired the documents has to be on the inside and have a severe disagreement with current Ukraine western policies. We can be assured that no amount of effort will be spared to identify him.
Still, as Larry and others have noted the information is dated and does not really disclose any new information about the situation while it does provide some specific numbers. So it does look like it was leaked to create an embarrassment for the Biden administration. And as the author notes is does provide documented evidence supporting the Russian position.
The madness will eventually end. Hopefully, we will not be living in a post nuclear war wasteland.
RFK Jr – Johnson 2024!
Larry, reading your argument brings to mind advice I have been given by several counsels – the absolute importance of due diligence – doing everything possible to support your case (before it gets to court) to avoid opposing counsel asking why you didn’t do more as proof of your insincerity.
Larry Johnson says
The article’s author is Thomas Lipscomb. It is his argument, not mine.
EVERYTIME you publish someone else’s articles you end up having to comment that “I didn’t write this – Blah Blah wrote it” usually several times !! Perhaps to save yourself some time & energy educating the skim readers you could maybe use a larger font on the authors name. Just a thought . . . . when you reach our age there’s no need wasting too much time on people who don’t pay attention. Cheers & keep up the good work.
My sincere apologies Tom, Great article.
Very insightful & logical analysis. Very reasonable, particularly if this “greatest ever offensive” coming up happens to expand via Poland/NATO.
I stated earlier, I believe he & Belarus already met with Russia Security Council and at least have a “stand by” Articals of Declaration of War drawn up as well as some Union State thing Declarations & possibly even CSTO
I reprise. “What the USA once was, Russia is becoming: independent, prosperous, debt-free and Christian. Go Vlad!
Dr. George W. Oprisko says
Putin is president of the Russian Federation….
He does not run their intelligence service(s).
He does not unilaterally make decisions such as the one theorized here…
Given Russian intelligence had access to a source that provided docs like the ones discussed here….
Damn foolishness to expose the source…. for what?????
The Russians are anything but foolish….
I always respect your analysis, especially when it comes to Intelligence matters. However I don’t think your speculations in this article holds water. It seems you think that the Russian President’s apparent restraints is due to fear of future prosecution after the war. I beg to differ.
I think President Putin and the Chinese President Xi Jinpin are only being careful because they realize that the tentacles of the American imperialism is deep and cannot be uprooted in haste. That is why the two have insisted on the supremacy of the United Nations as the only arbiter of international relationship, despite the fact that they both are aware that the UN has been corrupted by the same American power.
But going slowly is the only way to expose and discredit the fallacies of the American supremacy. A lot of gentle persuasion, couple with iron-cast evidence is needed to wean off the world from the American Hollywood magic. Take for example, how the rest of the wrorld has now realized that the USA’s vaunted respect of private property is an illusion. Because everybody has seen what the USA did not only to Russian state assets but the assets of private Russian nationals in the US.
For what is worth, I think President Putin is using the Eastern logic and his judo education to let the West defeat itself. Just watch the reception (rejection) both the French Emmanuel Macron and the American Kamala Harris, got on their tours of Africa. A decade ago Africa were still in awe of the West. But not any more.
The hypocrisy of the West has been exposed not by its excesses but by the patient carefully thought-out actions of both Russia and China. Remember when the USA pretended to be fighting the ISIS terrorists in Syria but the terrorists were getting stronger. Then Russia intervened and the ISIS was routed. It became clear that the USA was not fighting the ISIS but was instead aiding and abbeting it.
There is also the fact that if you allow anarchy to fester for a short-term reward, you would find it difficult later to find harmony by legal means. But I think the people in power in the collective West today have forgotten that truism.
Russia needs 6-8, even 24 months to produce enough ammo and weapons to be confident of taking the fight to NATO.
If they win in Ukraine. NATO will start a front in Georgia or Transnistria or Kazakhstan.
So either Russia fights fires or the one lighting them. In which case Ukraine is not the end of anything only the beginning.
As a poster noted above this is WW3 and Russia is gearing up to fight the combined West.
Right now it has ammo production superiority but not by anything like enough for assaults to be decisive.
Drones and newer technology and chip production all need to be sorted out.
There is often this idea in print that Russia is flush with ammo. It isn’t. It’s just producing more than the West. But it’s also technologically behind the West in drones, who are already using drone chemical carriers in Ukraine and advanced Lazer weapons systems.
This is a very ugly war.
Pray for those involved, the civilians. Nothing good will come of this.
This is a very dangerous war because it is going to escalate to chemical and biological weapons very fast once things scale up. Forget nuclear.
Russia wins nothing unless it takes out the US.
Ukraine is just a testing ground for the West and a crucial barrier for Russia. But it’s not really what this is about.
America and Britain and the EU have declared war on Russia in all but name so it can be nothing other than a fight to the finish now unless by some miracle leadership in the West changes. But the West has no good leaders anymore. Just whores for hire.
Something has broken in the world. The pretence of civilization has ended. The world is moving rapidly back to the dark ages of raw violence, racism, colonisation, lies manipulating the masses and treachery. The standard has been lowered to the level of territorial animals for all. Nothing will be the same and there is no going back.
Just FYI, Larry didn’t write this article.
Brian O. says
It seems like the truth must never see the light of day for those that would enslave us.
Sunlight always makes the cockroaches run in every direction. Divide and conquer. Go long roach motels.
Very circumspect, and entertaining to boot. It’s the only cogent and plausible explanation floating about in hyperspace. But, and there is always a big old BUTT… I can stamp my toilet paper with NOFORN, WNINTEL and so on and so forth, but, propaganda never ever has to make any damn sense. It’s all about keeping the Hoi Polloi’s minds busy, busy, busy on chicken feed!.
Did Donbass Devushka go dark or something? Their Telegram has been deleted, and their Twitter account went into protected mode.
Still working here in New ‘ealand as of this minute April 10 3.07 pm . . . . I’ll let you do the time difference 😉
Magical Johnson says
Telegram channel consisting only of two dog images doesn’t really count as “still working”.
You’re probably not looking at the channel with 64 odd thousand subscribers bud And I can only see a single dog video/photo, sitting atop some sort of RF/Wagner APC, with goggles & ballistic vest of some description. Channel looks to have been running without interruption . . . . or she/they woulda mentioned it I think.
just saying says
Could be that my account got blocked. I can see it when posts are forwarded to other feeds so I’m good.
Good piece by Thomas and highly plausible.
Putin’s Kremlin has a history of strategic leaks of this kind. I’m thinking of the 2014 leak of Nuland and Pyett plotting (handpicking who would be in the Ukrainian government ) – the infamous and highly arrogant ‘F the EU’ comment.
Many assume that the Wikileaks information came from the Kremlin as well. Check out what was leaked to Assange and his team – it’s simply mind-blowing: https://wikileaks.org/-Leaks-.html
Interestingly, the one Wikileaks leak that was a bit of a dud concerned Russia. I’ve always assumed that was a deliberate attempt by the Kremlin to try and disassociate from their involvement. Who knows.
Anyway if we go with Thomas’ theory, these new Ukraine leaks are similar in nature. They lay down evidence in the public domain that undermines the western narrative about Ukraine, exposing it as lies, in a way thay can be used later by Putin for legal reasons, if needed.
I am sticking with my theory that ‘outsiders’ (probably Russia or China) have hacked into the Pentagon/ NATO’s most classified databases, some time ago. If I’m right about Wikileaks, my theory may be corroborated.
But whatever. They may have humint assets on the inside as well (probably do). Whether it’s a hack or a leak, there have been 2 releases thus far and at least 1 is NOFORM.
If it’s Russia behind it, apart from the above points, the message from the Kremlin to the west (in particular, to DC) seems clear – ‘we have access to your most classified secrets – were not going to reveal how many of your secrets we have (hint : probably all of them, or more than you know), but you don’t have any access to ours. Keep that in mind, if you want to keep playing stupid games with us.’
Let’s see what happens.
My uneducated guess is that the documents stem from an outside hack of some sloppy defense employee’s or contractor’s computer. Is that possible? Can these kind of documents ever be downloaded on a personal computer? A friend of mine worked with a nuclear plant and everything was cut off from the outside. He couldn’t even bring his door key inside the premises.
If Russia is involved in one way or another they may have carefully selected just a part of them for “publication”. For example, the top secret document could have been part of a portfolio and the US has now been given a signal that Russia has other and more important documents. Not that the neocons would care though.
I have a feeling there will be more documents. Maybe the Killnet kids got lucky.
Larry Johnson says
NOPE. Not at all possible. You cannot access the computers with this material from the “outside.” Any attempt to download TS documents to a thumb drive sets off alarms. Printing is the only way.
The Rev. David R. Graham says
Tom Lipscomb wrote this post, not Larry Johnson.
the blame-e says
I hear that a lot in the “Comments” section. Wonder what it means? [sarcasm]
Ralph Furley says
IMO, It means that we need more Trollbusters!!!!!
Vallhalla Rising says
It’s pretty clear that the document leak has pissed off allies and potential US foes alike…that fact speaks for itself.
It will be interesting to watch the international reaction unfold and equally as interesting to see if the UN pussies chime in. If the UN remains mute it proves that it is nothing but a US instrument of the International Rules Based Order…if they do chime in–well that’s another story and Russia and China do have some “bough and paid for” UN influence.
In the big picture, the US stepped on its di*k time and so far is fumbling on a response/reaction. For my part, just another episode in the decline of the US empire/hegemon series.
Unfortunately, many Americans either don’t care about the document leak or don’t even know about it…they are more fixated on transgender activists on Bud Light cans than the actual status of the country they live in…such are the times we live in.
Certainly not impossible, but NYT? GRU’s paper of record and ‘Friend of the SVR’ and it’s NKVD predecessors since Walter ‘Red”Duranty in the 1930s? OK!
It has been reported that the dropped docs have been circulating since mid-March. They were just picked up and ran days ago by Walter “Red’ Duranty’s (d. 1957) employer NYT – Scoop!!! – the only media outlet that has staff look at social media! (No, Brandon, not ice cream scoop – sorry!)
Maybe I missed a Nuremberg style tribunal formed by the Internation Clown Court in Holland to indict and prosecute OTAN? Or has there been found a secret draft brief of the defense in the upcoming “How Dare You Save Lost and Abandonned Children in War Ravaged (since 2014) Donbass Trial’ before the Internat’l Clown Court?
More likely that it was placed or ran in the after NYT some contact with someone who could check it for veracity and remove the more sensitive info before it ran. The time lag could indicate prudent attempts of NYT to check veracity of material source and hold back damaging security info before running thier story. That process would take more than an email or tow or a quick phone call. Doing so doesn’t mean the March social media leak was not real docs. It might even lend credibility that they are and explain away some obvious edits or imprecision in what has been seen. Fits a time lag, other explains would also.
However, until these few, and other flaws in the premise of TL’s post are explained, answered convincingly, while very interesting, do seem implausible.
According to John Helmer the documents were posted long before NYT picked them up in April.
“In the initial leak of these documents at the beginning of March, there appear to have been ten separate papers relating to the Ukraine, ”
“these were reposted on the internet many times over in March before the New York Times report appeared on April 6. ”
If the Russians had these documents, they wouldn’t leak them unless they had some very strong motivation to do so because leaking them alerts Nato to the fact that the Russians have access to confidential Nato information, which would prompt Nato to tighten security to prevent future leaks.
Building a record for the some hypothetical legal case doesn’t seem to be a strong motivation. Anyways, documentation for a legal case can remain undisclosed until such time it is needed.
It’s much more likely that the documents were leaked by an official in one of the 31 Nato members who isn’t happy about being drawn into this war, which really isn’t in the interest of anybody in Europe.
willi uebelherr says
“.. as well as advancing his case before the international community and the bar of history itself.”
with this last sentence, you show how deeply you yourself are caught up in the thinking of personal rivalries and how far away political action is for you from the general interest of a country.
Yes, this is very well founded in the thinking of the USA. And if we look deeper, we see it in the Western European culture.
In elitist structures of domination, the people who act always try to put themselves in the foreground. And if we are used to it in ourselves, we expect it in the others as well.
You can get out of this delemma if you put the general interests in the foreground. For you, personally.
With kind regards, willi
Larry Johnson says
DO YOU NOT KNOW HOW TO READ OR COMPREHEND WHAT YOU ARE READING? I DID NOT WRITE THAT ARTICLE!!!!!! IT WAS WRITTEN BY THOMAS LIPSCOMB. ADDRESS YOUR COMMENTS TO HIM.
the blame-e says
I think, at this point, you’re just being messed with, Larry. They’re trying to get inside you head.
MSM wants to delete the Truth says
I gotta be honest here, I like the dialectic between sensible Larry (as seen in his avatar) and ALL CAPS LARRY. DON’T F WITH ALL CAPS LARRY
Magical Johnson says
Nah. People just don’t bother reading author’s name. That’s the reson that some articles have “BY HELMHOLTZ SMITH” in the title. Comment section in those shows that people don’t bother reading titles too.
willi uebelherr says
at the time I read this text, I had not looked at the name of the author. Later I read at Andrei Martyanov and then I realized that this sentence was not from you. So also my request for apology.
With kind regards, willi
@ Willi Uebel-herring
We thought you were Syd Barrett!!!!!!
You should use Heinrich Foolswagen instead!!!!! LOL
We enjoy reading your comment and we also enjoy watching Paw Patrol.. We undertand nothing but IT IS FUN!!
Way to go! Willi Foolswagen!!!!!!!
From Paraguay… SURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Elsa & Anna says
You nailed it UNICORNS!!!
Willi Uebel-herring is clearly an avatar of Syd Barrett…
Willi’s favorite album : The Madcap Laughs!!!!
Willi is always laughing!!!!!
willi uebelherr says
To the commentators,
regarding name and address and others.
Willi is the short form of Wilhelm.
Uebelherr is an old German name from the Koeln area, dating back to the 13th century with various variations.
I have been living in Latin America for 11 years, and now in Asuncion, Paraguay, for 6 years.
I understand very well that people from the USA have difficulties with their history. The culture is strictly Western European, the history is based on land theft and genocide.
And Larry describes the decay of the USA into a robber clan with mafia methods. For 120 years they have wanted to spread their own filth to other regions.
What strikes me again and again is the self-confidence, how you talk about America, although you mean the USA. For the people in Latin America and the Caribbean this is an insult.
With greetings, willi
Tinky Winky says
You forgot to include the word proletariat in your neo-marxist lecture !!!!!!
Without the word proletariat, your diarrhea seems incomplete…
Let’s go Brandon!
The leak has failed entirely to impact public conscious or opinion. Completely failed if that was the aim.
As a prod to authorities it is too light weight it will achieve very little other than a hunt for the source.
Unless anything more substantial is revealed this is just a rather bland talking point that has passed most of the world and almost all of the Western population by.
Nothing surprising in it for anyone objectively following events.
Too little, too late, too weak.
Happy Easter Larry
President Putin has certainly been fastidious in complying with International Law.
That’s because he’s an International Law lawyer.
More importantly, his vision is setting the law abiding example of Russia for the rest of the world, which seems to be impressing them mightily.
They in turn understand, that in the coming law based new world order, their sovereignty will be respected & any disputes will be settled according to the law everyone accepts & abides by.
Would that mean a new war crimes tribunal to sanction & prosecute current offenders of the diminishing rules based order?
That would be a sight for jaded eyes.
Turns out there’s much more to the man than the West’s letting on & makes one wonder who the real Vlad is.
Might he be a principled & decent man?
Here a wee taster
The book’s great too ‘The Grand Deception’ Alex Krainer
Thank you Larry, for an excellent essay based on considering this documents affair from the “cui bono” perspective. I truly enjoy reading these summaries of your thorough thinking
Happy Easter Brother! 😀
An interesting conundrum. Real or not real? And who leaked and why?
1) If real did an absentee analyst leave the papers in a subway car? Then a witless gamer found and published.
2) If real, did some ‘disgruntled or concerned’ individual with access, commander the local color printer; and unnoticed made a ream of copies? Note: How are reports like this organised, ‘published, & disseminated (hard copy or file) among key personnel. No copying the file to the USB drive via bluetooth, etc?
3) If real, did someone in US Intelligence release the data and for what purpose?
4) If not real, did someone in US intelligence release the data and for what purpose?
5) If real, did a person ‘friendly’ to Russia obtain the data and forward it to Russia for release. And if so, why did Russia release the data?
6) If not real, does Russia have access to the templates (and acronyms) necessary to create fake data and release that data or any other data at the time of its choosing?
7) If real or not real, would any other ‘actor’ have access and incentive to release such data?
Who would leak such documents?? Well, it finally dawned on me. The fish rots from the head down.
It’s General Mark Milley!! After all, he did talk to the Chinese!!
Lots of Laughs!!
“Perhaps they make it possible to use US/NATO documents, rather than Russian assertions alone, to establish a legal framework and build the record for whatever settlement Putin plans to impose upon Ukraine. It helps prove Putin’s case that his intervention was required by an active and ongoing conspiracy led by the United States to use Ukraine to attack and subvert Russia”.
That sir is the most logical idea I’ve read yet. I love the way you began your essay with one thing demostrably true, i.e. Putin’s legal background and hence modus operandi, and then, but only then, took that and melded it into the whole recent info leaks issue.
Perhaps you are showing how you really were CIA and know how to think strategically. We may, in these times, denigrate the CIA for what it has become and for that low lifes there now, but we should remember there was a time when many things were legitimate.
What if it is Ukraine who stole a copy of the plan and leaked it on internet.
The purpose would be to put pressure on the negligent Pentagon to convince Biden that F-16 s must be delivered to Ukraine for insuring the success of the counter defensive already heavily compromised by that leak!
Larry Johnson says
Nope. No way Ukraine would have access to a TS document.
Assuming that the documents are real and that they must have been printed out by one or more disgruntled NATO persons I don’t see any reason that Russia should be involved. Including Russia only adds an unnecessary link to the causal chain. Occam’s razor easily shaves that alternative away.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
Readingjunkie claims the “secret documents” were leaked by some Pentagon idiot in order to win an Internet argument:
Stupid as that sounds, it’s still more believable than the idea that the Russians released the photos to lay the legal framework for proving Amerikastani assistance to the nazis.
(Because sloppily photographed documents are the best the Russians can do to expose Amerikastani help to the nazis, apparently?)
Like I commented in other comments here on this site. The dropping of the atomic bombs on Japan did not make Japan surrender. I find this article very interesting. It basicly says what I have said before and give a very well thought out process.
The Empire is Imploding:
1. Raytheon Director dies in plane crash
2. Classified Pentagon Ukraine and Middle East docs leaked
3. Saudi openly divorces USA and ties nuptials with Iran and China
4. De-dollarization trade agreements signed
5. Taiwan strait controlled by China
6. Yemen war coming to an end
7. Israel overwhelmed by Hezbollah and Hamas
8. Regime change in Pakistan about to be reversed
9. Syria welcomed back into the Arab states
10.Russia almost done in Bakhmut, nearing victory
11. Belarus getting tactical nukes
12. France slowly getting kicked out of African states
13. Honduras breaks with ties Taiwan, adopts one China policy
14. Leaked Jan 6th video shows Biden gov lying to American people
15. Iran getting SU-35s, countering Israeli aggression
16. Azerbaijan cucking, unable to war over NK due to Iranian resistance
17. China domestic chip manufacturing advancing rapidly
18. American banking system on brink of collapse
19. UAE considering reducing ties with Israel due to Al-Aqsa violations
Only a fraction of it all.
20. Mass-protesting in France, Macron struggling to keep control
21. Sy Hersh release another bombshell piece on America’s bombing of Nordstream
22. Erdogan and Turkey getting more aggressive after US ambassador meets opposition leaders
23. UK engulfed in cost of living crisis, food and fuel becoming inaccessible to many
24. Brazil re-orienting policy to achieve BRICs+ dominance
25. SWIFT system alternative developed by Russia-Iran, increasing being adopted
26. An unusual increase in train derailments, factory explosions, chemical spills, and contamination events across the USA (due to maintenance issues AND foreign state operations)
27. Russian warship docking in Saudi Arabian ports for the first time in many years, indicating Saudi moving towards eastern nations to provide its defenses
28. AMLO in Mexico nationalizing key energy and oil industries despite protests from Washington, this is in the backdrop of increasing anti-American sentiment from Mexico
29. Malaysia in discussion with China to develop a new ‘Asian Monetary Fund’, an alternative to the neo-liberal and much criticized IMF – – potentially allowing many countries to escape America’s debt trap
30. Demand for Zimbabwe’s gold coins skyrocketing, following calls by African leaders to stop using the USD as a primary currency. Potentially the first of many steps leading to the creation of an African-led financial structure.
31. Iran enriching uranium to a level of 83.7%, bringing them closer to acquiring nuclear weapons and potentially causing key Israeli allies in the region to withdraw support for an Israeli military attack on Iran
32. Vassal states, such as France, begin to speak up against the Empire and its blackmail: Macron says “Europe has become more dependent on the United States in recent years, but it must strengthen its strategic autonomy and not depend on the extraterritoriality of the dollar.”
33. Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Brazil considering the creation of a ‘OPEC for lithium’, in order to control market prices and eliminate the role and influence of Western companies in the global lithium market
lords of war tme
¿Putin? No lo creo. Yo buscaría una mujer… en un alto cargo político… que pretende influir en los demás… para que tomen una decisión definitiva: Ingresar en Ukrania (ahora que todavía existe la tercera construcción del ejército nazi) o huir de allí (como USA acostumbra).
Carlton Meyer says
I wonder if the SMO can be claimed legal as “hot pursuit.” I googled around and found:
What are some historical examples of ’hot pursuit’?
History is replete with examples of foreign agents or armies crossing another state’s sovereign borders in pursuit of those suspected of committing crimes against another state. One famous example is the pursuit of Pancho Villa by U.S. forces into Mexico in 1916. The manhunt was in response to a cross-border raid of New Mexico by Pancho’s “Villistas,” though the pursuit failed and Villa escaped.
Wasn’t our invasion of Cambodia similar to the SMO?
The case lays out a plausible scenario in what it addresses. The trouble is that it does not address the motives for NYT publishing it. NYT are the lapdog of the DC establishment. If this leak came from the other side, why would NYT draw attention to it to implicate their overlords?
Quite a bit of dialogue in comments about how to defuse the US neocon/establishment elites/wall street pirate class from their ingrained exceptionalism, looting entitlements and military/intel malicious bullying in the face of US hegemony dissolving into a multi polar reality.
It struck me that a series of recent events may point to a possible solution, or beginning of one. First we have the extraordinarily rapid outbreak of peace amongst middle eastern stakeholders who have for decades beeen manipulated, coaxed and bullied into conflicts that only benefit the US/Israel. Saudi’s, Iranians, Emiratees, Yemeni’s and Syrians are all de-conflicting and being signed onto MBS’s grand vision of regional development. Israel was invited also, what happens with that depends on how constrained the extremists in the current Israeli regime is in their anti arab ideologies.
Concurrent with above events is the announcement that a US sub armed with 154 cruise missiles was sent into the region. It’s hard to see the sub as anything but provocation and veiled threat after CIA director Burns was sent to lecture and cajole Saudi Arabia to step back in line. MBS will have politely and respectfully declined.
It struck me that a coalition of nations, all of whom have determined a future that relies on peaceful co-existence have a great deal more room to move than the declared adversary states of China and Russia. What’s to stop them jointly declaring the Red Sea and Persian Gulf off limits to foreign military assets unless in transit (requiring submarines to surface during transit). A treaty between the nations, similar in nature to those that restrict naval operations in the Black Sea.
Obviously the US will kick and scream about being restricted, but because it isn’t Russia or China doing it, it’s nations who have seen protracted conflict now working towards a peaceful future, International opinion will not work in the US favor.
Used as a model, The US could find it’s current unrestricted military access steadily removed around the world and done so as a means to foster peaceful relations between nations and also between regions.
Defanging the crazed beast without bloodshed.
Voldemort Cocainsky is deadly says
Who knows? Maybe these documents were found in Biden’s home in Delaware. Maybe it was Hunter Biden that left them at a printer’s shop?
What we definitively know though is that future historians will right “the US empire fell due to the ukrozionazi disease”
Regardless of whether or not Putin is behind the leaked US/NATO documents Thomas Lipscomb´s case that Putin is the biggest beneficiary of their leaks is rational and gives us all optimism for the likely quality of the War Crimes Nuremberg 2 prosecutions that can come out of Ukranian defeat.
“Controlled Leak”. Considering the “heralds” of these “sensations” (CNN, etc.), one should bear in mind the intention to press Zalensky and also to discredit him. Maybe these are attempts to withdraw “with face” by the United States(?)
Any reader who is so witless and unobservant as to not notice who wrote the article is shouting from the roof tops that their opinions and thoughts are equally witless and without value.
Or they are deliberate disruptors.
The documents help confirm and corroborate the direct involvement of NATO and the USA in a war against Russia.
The target audience is the non-West.
Tom S. says
I am not convinced that these documents were necessarily released by Russian intel. This scenario articulated by Sundance at CTH is altogether plausible:
One thing that gives me pause attributing it to Russian intel is the rather ham-handed attempt at changing the casualty counts from the supposedly DoD numbers to more favorable totals for the Russians, which Interagency media immediately focused on as significant. It smacks of Guccifier 2.0 attempts to point the finger at Russian state assets, who everyone knows to be slovenly and sloppy. The incompetence being incontrovertible evidence that it must be the Russians.
In addition to the the CTH purpose that Sundance advances is the possibility of building an excuse why the UAF offensive either fails or never launches. “The plans were leaked so we had to change them at the last minute, disrupting logistics etc., or cancel altogether.”
Three-D chess was an affectation invented to give a television character intellectual gravitas. It doesn’t exist as a real “thing”. Dissimilation and misdirection though are as old as warfare. We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the Russians are tertiary adversaries of the Interagency, an avocation. Their real enemy, whom they fear and loath without bound, is the U.S. citizen.
Tom S. says
And there it is.
I have read many comments that offered a lot of information about passed events that got the worlds battle to this point.
The comment that called Russia’s measurement of military success in damage to foe combatant not territories held, the Meat Grinder, if true is some scary a s s stuff.
just saying says
In Slavic languages, the equivalent term for “cannon fodder” is “cannon meat”. It stresses dehumanization of soldiers sent to their death like cattle is sent to the slaughterhouse.
So yes those leaked documents were a gift to Russia.
The truth always surfaces to just as trapped air under water eventually bubbles up.
Evelyn Clover says
This is my take on this:
#1 Funny these documents show up now. Right after Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with Russian leader Putin. It is no secret that the best hackers on the planet are Asian. China gave these to Russia and they mutually agreed to release them to the public for some reason.
#2 The American government released these themselves as a trap. The United States government is very secretive just like any of first class country. I don’t see top secret documents being stolen, released to the public, and in the same day the American government all but says every single thing about them is true. They would have denied the legitimacy of them or at least kept quiet about it for a while longer.
#3 There are a lot of Americans who are very upset that we are either starting another war or joining one after only ending the last one 12 months earlier. Congress’s reasoning to end the last one was we could no longer afford the war in the middle east. Did we some how find a bunch of money in one year to pay for a much larger anf more expensive war? The documents were stolen and released in house to undermine the American efforts to help Ukraine long enough to vote to end a pointless foreign aid project with a country that has never been our friend and has historically been our enemy.
Regardless of which one above happened this summer will definitely see a different situation in Ukraine from last year and definitely will see billions of dollars lost and thousands of lives ended.
Larry P. Johnson says
I do not disagree with your premise, Larry, but prefer the Occam’s Razor approach. The simplest explanation is what I think you stated in your Roundtable Interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRs8pAWIxjk
It was a whistleblower in the intelligence community that either wanted to cool down the war talk, (or my take) to make it difficult for Biden’s next election bid.
Again, I am very impressed with your worldview. Thank you for sharing it.
The “leaked” documents were a CIA leak (creation) to make the war look real.
End of story.
The msm is, of course, going to go to ridiculous lengths to use this leak to push some of their pet projects. Targeting gun owners, belief in God, etc
thank you so much for all of your experience and heartfelt thought that goes into your writing and speaking on shows.