Let me start with a simple analogy. You are tooling down the road on a BMW S1000RR “crotch rocket” at 100 miles per hour. You see Toyota sedan a couple of hundred yards (i.e., 183 meters) ahead with an elderly codger at the helm getting ready to pull out into traffic. Do you think it matters if he sees you? Damn right it does. If he pulls out in front of you a collision is inevitable unless you dump the bike, which means you will skip along the pavement like flat rock flung over a still body of water. Or, you’ll hit the car and be launched into low orbit and wind up as bloody pulp. Neither is pleasant to contemplate. It would be nice to know what he is thinking, right?
So do you think it matters if the United States correctly understands what the leaders of Russia and China are thinking? And, conversely, does it matter if the leaders of Russia and China correctly discern the intentions of U.S. leaders? The answer–YES on both counts.
Let’s take another look at Nancy Pelosi’s recent “visit” to Taiwan. She did it inspite of (or with the full intent of spite) China’s vociferous protests. China did itself no favors by issuing a flood of verbal threats, implying that war was the next stop, and then allowing Granny Pelosi to hobble down the steps of a U.S. military aircraft to greet kowtowing Taiwanese leaders. I know that some analysts see this as some sort of three dimensional chess move by the incredibly inscrutable Chinese–i.e., let Pelosi do her thing, which will in turn stoke the rage of the Chinese people against foreign interlopers. Maybe that is the truth. But that truth notwithstanding, it also feeds a narrative among the United States political elite that the Chinese are just a bunch of tough talking, money grubbing cowards lacking the stones to stand up to the nuclear powerhouse in Washington.
What did the Chinese (and the Russians as well) perceive? They saw political schizophrenia in Washington. On the one had, spokes-model John Kirby insisted that the United States still opposed “independence” for Taiwan and accepted as policy that Taiwan is part of China. But then you have Pelosi and other members of Congress declaring their support for a “democratically free” Taiwan–codeword for “independent”. Raising the valid question–is anyone in charge? Who is calling the shots?
In my experience in dealing with senior officials from more than 65 governments, there is a surprising consensus. Almost all believe that the publicly stated position of the United States is a deception or a half-truth and that the U.S. is playing stupid or crazy in order to hide a shrewd, complex plan. For example, in the aftermath of the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, I was questioned by officials from several governments (I was teaching a Senior Crisis Management Seminar for the State Department’s Anti-Terrorism Assistance Training Program) about what was the real purpose/objective in taking out Saddam and disbanding Iraq. What was our real plan, they wanted to know.
Foreigners basically believe that Phil Hartman’s portrayal of Ronald Reagan in an iconic Saturday Night Live skit is the real truth–Reagan was not a man in the early stages of Alzheimers, he was a Mastermind:
When I tried to explain there was no hidden strategy behind the chaos that was unleashed in Iraq because the Bush team failed to put in place a stable government, my foreign interlocutors did not believe me. Given my CIA background they simply assumed I was obfuscating to hide the real truth. They trusted Phil Hartman.
Looking at the Pelosi visit from the perspective of the U.S. Deep State, the Speaker’s victorious descent to Taiwanese territory without sparking a Chinese military response was deja vu all over again. The Chinese similarly backed down during the Clinton Administration. In other words, ignore the tough talk and bluster from Beijing. When all is said and done, the Chinese only care about the trade relationship with the United States and access to the U.S. dollar. In short, the Chinese are whores and America remains a paying client.
One final, but instructive, film reference–Cool Hand Luke. A classic with an immortal line–“What we’ve got here is a failure to communicate.”
What makes the current international situation so perilous, whether you are looking at China or at Russia in Ukraine, are misconceptions compounded by failures in communication. Many U.S. politicians, for example, genuinely believe that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine and that the continued flow of U.S. weapons will ensure Zelensky’s victory. Few are taking time to consider that the alternative may be true–i.e., Russia is winning and the continued flow of U.S. weaponry is feeding Russian animus towards the United States. There is credible evidence that Russia’s previous belief that there was a way to find mutual agreement between Moscow and Washington has been irretrievably ruptured.
We face a comparable dilemma in the breakdown of communication between Washington and Beijing. False assumptions reinforced by wrong conclusions almost inevitably lead to a deadly miscalculation. Normally, the national intelligence agencies of a nation are supposed to provide a dose of truth and reality. That is the real danger facing America now. The CIA and the FBI are politically compromised and are institutionally averse to telling the President and his team they are wrong. While I no longer have access to current U.S. intelligence, I still hear things through the grapevine of former colleagues and the news is unsettling. There was a time when there were “Dutch Uncles” in the CIA. A “Dutch Uncle” is one who admonishes sternly and bluntly for the benefit of the recipient. Instead of a Dutch Uncle, the intelligence community is behaving more like Wormtongue, a rogue villain in Lord of the Rings. A dangerous situation when our leaders need to understand correctly what the other “guys” think.
Great metaphor: enfeebled and befuddled, we can no longer think critically or perceive reality clearly for the Wormtongue media and their stupefying intelligence leaks and military experts.
The neoliberal way of harvesting private profits in exchange for creating public debts has come to its logical conclusion. There may not be many original Star Trek fans here, but when Nichelle Nichols (communications officer Uhura) passed away, it is clear that a Rodenberry-type 1960s era longing for peace still is opposed by those who require profit.
Rodenberry’s last alien creation – the Ferangi – he found fit to burden them with 285 Rules of Acquisition. Neoliberalism is a cancer.
Dig your work my friend. China is still in denial. They cannot believe we are this stupid or psychotic. But eventually when you are locked in a room with an idiot with an ax, you are going to have to do something. If I was China, I would be selling US Treasuries. Sell them at a loss. That will screw the Fed up. I’d be telling the rich kids, sell everything you got over there. Cause after the Party Congress in October, and during the typhoon weather window, we are ending this BULLSHIT. And Taiwan is gone. And probably some US Navy ships.
“The CIA and the FBI are politically compromised and…..” they sabotaged the last president and are will to do the same to the next Republican to win the office. Biden wouldn’t listen to any ‘Dutch uncle’ or anyone else telling him he’s wrong. The Obama carryovers are happy to have the doddard in office, that has enabled them to force their agenda upon us all.
To those lunatic American political and military types proudly parading around with US/Kiev-regime flag lapel pins prominently displayed on their pathetic persons:
“War is not a game where there is everything to win and nothing to lose. Those who appeal to the law of force, should not complain if its decision is held as final.” – Union General Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain
On the occasion of a rapidly escalating American defeat in Kiev-Authority-Land and another C.I.A. drone assassination in Afghanistan (which unhappy land I thought we had abandoned) …
Oath of Orifice
You swore you wouldn’t lie or cheat or steal,
or tolerate among you those who do:
an oath expressive of a high ideal;
but rare in practice as a flying seal;
which is to say exceedingly unreal
like body-counts and budgets, neither true;
or “taking out” Jihadi Number Two;
or weaponry that works when ordered to,
regardless of effect on troop and crew
who anyway have not the slightest clue
why they should fight and die for such as you.
In Orifice, that is, within the hole
from out of which emerges turds and gas
you decorated leaders on the dole
persist in playing your anointed role:
to slide and slither up the greasy pole;
displaying proudly tits and balls of brass;
while kissing up to some “commanding” ass;
and kicking down upon the lower class;
not giving one’s “commander” any sass.
You “fight” by leading with your jaw of glass.
Why so surprised at what has come to pass?
Two decades in Afghanistan you spent.
Like Vietnam, a loss that means “success”
because back home few own while most must rent.
So who cares if you didn’t make a dent
in propaganda “goals” you never meant?
What counts is that you’ve made a bloody mess
without the slightest sweat or strain or stress.
You’ve taken much but given only less
for which the bible thumpers shout “Gawd Bless!”
saluting while they beg for more duress
which you’ll see that they get. So just swear: “Yes!”
Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright © 2022
Nice one Michael
“When I tried to explain there was no hidden strategy behind the chaos that was unleashed in Iraq because the Bush team failed to put in place a stable government, my foreign interlocutors did not believe me. Given my CIA background they simply assumed I was obfuscating to hide the real truth. They trusted Phil Hartman.”
I trust you, Mr Johnson. I am completely convinced there is no secret plan, or if there is, it is absolutely irrelevant as for the course of the events, yesterday or nowadays.
Greetings, Mr Johnson.
Another great analysis. Kudos.
I studied in one of the campuses of an American universities in a European country in the 1980s.
What struck me the most about my American fellow-students was not the lack or appreciation of history or culture beyond theirs, but the unwillingness to know the other.
An American Executive of an American corporation posted to a European country did not even bother to know the currency used in his new the country. “How much is that in your local dollar?” he reportedly asked!
How can you possibly deal intelligently with people whom you do not understand well enough?
American ignorance and arrogance of other cultures lead to projections, which leads to the current hubris.
American education system needs compression overhauling.
The Reagan skit on SNL that had me laughing till tears came out — those days are gone SNL is never funny now. Never. (it’s leftist premise that Reagan was dumb still rubs slightly) Nothing is more boring and trying than jokes that are not funny.
Imagine if they still had the same writers imagine what they could do on Biden or Hunter? Or G. W.?
Greetings, Mr Johnson.
Another great analysis. Kudos.
I studied in one of the campuses of an American universities in a European country in the 1980s.
What struck me the most about my fellow-students from the US was not the lack or appreciation of history or culture beyond theirs, but the unwillingness to know about the other cultures.
An American Executive of an American corporation posted to a European country did not even bother to know the currency used in his new the country. “How much is that in your local dollar?” he reportedly asked!
How can you possibly deal intelligently with people whom you do not understand well enough?
American ignorance and arrogance of other cultures lead to projections, which leads to the current hubris.
It’s impossible for me not to feel sorry to see the country of the Kennedys, which I so admired in my youth, in its current truly abysmal state!
American education system, which I blame for producing the uneducated elite, needs compressive overhauling.
Larry,
One of your most illuminating columns. My only comment; There might not be a sophisticated clever plan with brilliant leaders; but there is definitely consensus and extraordinary brutality.
Thank you for the SNL clip.
Finally – recall Cronkite‘s visit to Vietnam and upon his return announcing to the nation, he was against the War and the War was lost. Today, there is no way to imagine such a powerful figure going against the consensus.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zCdXVWsTpSM
Then we will have an unexpected war not a surprise war with China… I guess it will be a big moment for North Korea.
That may all be true Larry, but it also doesn’t take away the fact that it’s never smart to react and start a war that is not entirely on china’s own time of choosing.
Pelosi has gifted China the gateway to practice blockading and invading the island. Which is what is happening for 3 days now, 900+ flights cancelled to and from the island, all ship traffic affected. The closest drills are only 9 nautical miles off the island Coast. The Taiwan median line no longer exists. Pla ship and planes will encircle around ever closer and right off the coast of the island.
Practice makes perfect and the pla will have all the time to perfect their plan.
Taiwan is the biggest loser out of this and what did they get in return?
Seems to me that US is in terminal decline and it doesn’t matter if there are 100 year old codgers in the driving seat or 30 year old smart asses – they aren’t going to see the missile that hits them and blows up.
China and Russia just have to wait and hope US isn’t stupid enough to go for nukes.
Where was the US Navy in all of this ? It was in the area, watching the PLA menace Taiwan in unprecedented fashion.
hidden strategy behind the chaos that was unleashed in Iraq because the Bush team failed to put in place a stable government, my foreign interlocutors did not believe me. Given my CIA background they simply assumed I was obfuscating to hide the real truth. They trusted Phil Hartman.”
What was the real reason for invading Iraq. Wesley Clarke stated us would invade 7 countries in 5 years so they must have planned this in advance otherwise why do it
The New York Post would like to know what Pelosi’s husband was thinking when he dumped some Taiwan chip-maker stock at a 300K loss:
https://nypost.com/2022/07/27/pelosis-sold-5m-in-nvidia-stock-ahead-of-chipmaker-subsidy-vote/
Move along folks, nothing to see here!
Perhaps the CCP will move quicker than was thought, wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Well said, Larry. In general it may be safer for China and Russia to do something too complicated against Washington for the level of Congress or the Senate to understand. One idea would be, as suggested, dump US treasuries to feed the inflation of the USA. But that would entail a cost to China and collapsing the dollar of a major customer would work at cross purposes to China’s central bank assets. So one can also look at China announcing its real gold reserves which is tantamount to going back on the gold standard for the yuan. Russia would follow this road lead and the West may be too weak to react militarily by now. This essentially I think is the plan anyway and one wonders if now is the time.
Your commentary about the tyranny of narratives or the politicization of the Intelligence services is a major threat to us all and right on the mark.
L.
Ukraine and Taiwan are two different situations and yet, we should treat them with equal standards. As it seems now, the Taiwanese don’t want to belong to mainland China. So, if this is true, every attack on Taiwan would not be justified just the way an ukrainian attack on Crimea would not. If we grant the Crimea people the right to choose, where they want to belong to, then we must equally respect the will of taiwanese people to choose if they want to be part of mainland China. A reunification cannot have success, if its violently done, same as a woman will hate her violator forever. I just hope, that the excellent leadership and diplomacy of Russia can make this clear to mainland China leaders , which have proven so far to be paper tigers, without any necessity. Don’t show your weapon, if you are not going to use it. Why occupy Taiwan? Just because you have an old imperialist claim and are too stupid to use the situation which has economically turned out so well all this years for both sides? Those two countries are making so much business with each other and any move to strangle and not extend this would be damn stupid. The situation is unnecessarily tense. On top, the hegemon and world bully tries to pour oil into the fire and China lets itself getting provoked. Thats hegemons forever “divide et impera” doctrine. Damn assholes!
Taiwan already belongs to the Chinese.
Chinese are not indigenous to Taiwan. They occupied Taiwan and basically marginalized the actual native Taiwanese.
So it’s more a case like Anglo-Saxon dominated countries with small remaining indigenous populations wanting to be independent from the UK. Expect there is no diversity of Chinese in Taiwan like first foreigners in US for example.
So it’s basically Han Chinese immigrants to Taiwan wanting independence from their original homeland.
The problem here is Taiwan can’t really survive well independently of China.
Secondly, like Ukraine they are in sphere of influence of China and allying with US and NATO would put a threat on Chinas doorstep. This I think is the real reason China will have to take power in Taiwan, to stop the Han there bringing potential enemies to their doorstep.
The Taiwanese Han are not a bunch of sweeties either
https://www.culturalsurvival.org/publications/cultural-survival-quarterly/first-nations-taiwan-special-report-taiwans-indigenous
Fanático, Larry.
Hace unos días escribí sobre este asunto…
Estoy de acuerdo..
https://deymoond.substack.com/p/washington-we-have-a-problem
The Art of the Next Best
Of several competing narratives, this may have boiled down, on one hand:
US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, going for a specific political reason to gain something [politics being her expertise], via the Taiwan matter.
With:
Chinese government thus faced with how best to respond to this fait accompli [that is, what serves country’s national interest].
Thus, questions to be answered:
1] what political gain was envisioned, from perspective of the US Speaker of the House?
2] from this, what would China response to this, in terms of her national interest, be that would best thwart that?
Being a registered Democrat, she has a consuming goal: weaken Republicans and their party. [How? By dividing them more.]
It may well be Trump Republicans express consuming and great dislike for Pelosi.
This group is split on China, however.
Some, call them Trump Republicans Group A: directly blame China for novelcoronavirus. Mike Pompeo, among many others, among loudest and most vociferous in this basket.
Some, call them Trump Republicans Group B: this basket directly blame US-funded research at WIV [i.e., Daszak/EcoHealth, bio-weapon/GOF project using bats — and those behind this and funding it].
Failing to pay attention to this key distinction may result in failing to see forest for the trees, as it were.
This is not a subtle distinction, by the way; however, it is essential dimension to try and explicate consequences of all of what just went down in east Asia. [And, perhaps, better grasp what is coming.]
From what I’ve been able to gather, it could be that Group A, despite passionate dislike of Pelosi, loved, really loved the fact she “had the courage and drive” to “stand up to China”.
Suppose this thesis is true – and all that this implies.
What would China have gained shooting her out of the sky, making a martyr of her, and creating this great rupture in Republican party — those in A, that blame China for pandemic; vs. those in B, that blame those behind and funding Daszak/EcoHealth?
Democrats would have gained greatly by this ensuing Republican division. Pompeo would have, most certainly, and this wing – at expense of the party as a whole, it need be added.
What else to explain that her journey to Taiwan involved US Aircraft Carrier on the scene, along with more to this armada?
That is to say: this Pelosi Gambit, sanctioned by US government, heavy military support, premised on this outcome. . . birthed by making her a martyr – assuming she was not rescued at sea.
Those in Group A may well say this is impossible because Biden et. al. are “corrupt” — and “beholden” to Peoples Republic of China.
And thus believing this, are blinded to the reality of a great sundering in their own party, by cheering on her “great courage” as it were — risking her life etc. [This is not to suggest Biden et. al. are not corrupt; instead, to explain this gaping blindness in analysis of matter by the Group A folk.]
Which bring us to China’s response.
By not “taking the bait”, China check-mated the actual purpose of the US action, via Pelosi landing in Taiwan. So the US [read: Democrat national party] gained ZERO from this extravagant attempt to bait China to respond militarily.
Not only this, China established, via its extremely harsh rhetoric prior to her landing; and now, creating elements of a blockade of this island. In other words, the extravaganza created new “facts on the ground” and over and on and in the South China sea – in addition to new [bellicose] China government rhetoric directed at US officials. These are the new normal, now, it appear.
In other words, China no longer recognizes what it had recognized viz. Taiwan red lines viz. in what had been a status quo for years — until the Pelosi landing. This post-Pelosi dimension of China’s response is the news, as it is the China willingness to abandon previous de-facto red lines around and now, apparently, directly over this island.
Pelosi failed, in this regard, — as Democrats gained ZERO division in Republican party groups A and B; in other words: her mission was a dud. But not so for China.
[It is not purpose of this comment to evaluate whether this new normal – result of Pelosi’s attempt to divide and it ending as a dud — is or is not in the US national interest. For now, let the facts speak for themselves.]
Watching Larry’s 5-minute interview this week on RT — while this was live, the network ran a number of news bites onscreen while the pair was chatting.
Including this one,
“MOSCOW: ANY MILITARY CONFLICT NEAR TAIWAN WOULD OFFER NO DANGER TO RUSSIA’S SECURITY”
“Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best” ― Otto von Bismarck
-30-
Per a visit a few years ago, it was interesting to contemplate the juxtaposition of the Bund on one side of the Huangpu River with from the heights of the Shanghai tower on the other side. The message was very clear, humiliated once by foreign powers (the Bund is where European concessions were once based); the steel and glass towers seemed to symbolically resonate; never again. Why the US, via Pelosi, would deliberately insult China, is incredibly stupid. The result, iMO, will be for China to arm to the hilt and, if a reaction becomes warranted from a provocation, they will do it on their terms.
Alternatively:
Rider on the motor cycle did not see the bullet proof Mercedes containing two high level officials merging into the traffic. If there is a collision, who will be hurt most (Think of hypersonics)
The analogy seems especially appropriate in that the crotch-rocket rider is speeding down a public street at 100 mph as if he owns the road and everyone else must yield to his pleasure.
American foreign policy in a nutshell.
Sure. But even more critical is to know what leads the guy.
Remember, “Nothing happens in politics unless it is planned down in detail”.
To think the Great Geopolitical Chessboard just happens by clumsy US President and cartoon characters in London is a naivety I could suspect the Intelligence community to have.
I would make my bet on all the guys asking “whats behind”.
Let me give you this one too confirming: https://www.riotimesonline.com/brazil-news/modern-day-censorship/analysis-dont-be-fooled-the-new-world-order-will-come-from-the-east-not-the-west/