I don’t know what the Russians are going to do in Ukraine and neither does anyone else outside of their high command. But there sure have been a lot of wrong predictions. Leaving aside the Western propaganda mill (of which more below), serious observers seem to get the timing wrong. We know the correlation of forces favors Russia but we expect things to happen more quickly. We agree that Moscow was expecting something shorter, less bloody and quicker at the beginning and was probably surprised by the resistance of the Kiev regime and NATO’s unhinged support. Therefore there was a re-examination and the call-up of further forces. Thus far we are in agreement – it’s the timing of the next step that we seem to get wrong.
I’ve been thinking about why this is so and I have come to the following conclusions. By now everybody who is paying attention knows that the Ukraine battlefield is part of a world war in which those who control the US empire are trying to hold onto their dominance. For those outside the NATO propaganda bubble there is general agreement that
- Russia is winning both in the Ukraine battlefield and the wider theater.
- Time is on Russia’s side.
First the Ukraine battlefield. The first aim in war is to destroy the enemy’s power and that Russia is doing, especially in the Bakhmut slaughterhouse. Kiev is determined to stand and fight here and the Russians are quite happy to let them do so – “artillery conquers and infantry occupies” – and that is what we see here. Slowly slowly the Russian forces advance over mountains of Ukrainian bodies. In the last week or so Russian forces have begun to advance on other fronts too. This grinding away can continue until Ukraine collapses because it is easier for the Russians to let the enemy come to them than go after them. Meanwhile Russian missiles destroy the infrastructure Kiev needs to continue the war. Time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” movements.
On the bigger war the sanctions that were supposed to have crushed Russia have boomeranged and we have headlines like “Inflation in Europe is falling but food prices are rising” and hypothermia deaths in England. Inflation is falling because demand is falling and demand is falling because businesses are stopping because of the price of fuel. Germany’s PMI is declining. No one (except the bubble dwellers in NATO) should be surprised – you sanctioned the biggest energy exporter, biggest grain exporter and a big exporter of potash, did you expect prices to go down? Everything needs energy and everybody needs food. NATO unity wobbles with Turkey, Sweden and Finland. Hungary officially notices the sufferings of Hungarians in Ukraine. Partitioning Ukraine was contemplated. Macron suspects the US is intentionally weakening its European allies. Did Washington just sucker Berlin into going first – when exactly will the Abrams get there? NATO is now breaking into its active stocks (Estonia joins Denmark in sending all its artillery). (And, not that anybody is asking, who blew up Nord Stream?) Riots and protests all over Europe. What’s happening in Kiev? The longer this goes on the weaker Russia’s enemies become. So in the big war, time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” movements.
Therefore Russia should keep doing what it’s doing and hold the big force in reserve – no reason to change anything – it’s attritting its enemies.
But.
How crazy will NATO get? Its strategy is a total failure. “Crippling sanctions” haven’t collapsed the Russian economy, overthrown Putin or made the population rise up. Just the opposite – when even the Economist has to admit Russia “did a lot better than expected” you know it’s actually thriving. The wonder weapons – Bayraktars, Javelins, M777s, HIMARS, Gepards, Patriots and now tanks – have done nothing but prolong Ukraine’s suffering and make Wagner and Akhmat Sila into the best urban fighters in the world. What next? Can NATO reverse itself? Can it survive another defeat? Or, as Larry wonders, drive straight into the Grand Canyon? What new lunacy will it come up with when the tanks fail? (Can you imagine how unhinged the refrigerator babblers will become if these things work? CNN worries – “Think of the propaganda victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin if pictures emerge of disabled American tanks on a Ukrainian battlefield.”)
Therefore, I believe that the Russian high command is in a continual decision loop. Every morning it considers whether to continue the present strategy or start the “big arrow” move to bring it to an end before NATO does something irretrievably stupid. It’s a careful balancing process.
In short, the Russian high command will keep doing what it’s doing and hold back the reserve until it decides that the moment has come to end it. And that’s a decision that only it can make based on information that only it can know.
So, maybe the “big arrow” offensive starts tomorrow or maybe it doesn’t ever need to be started.
I think decision has already been made.
Slowly grind down until a hole opens. The hole could open at any point in the front line and they beauty of it is – no matter where it opens, RFA has forces on the ready to pour into it. I think this is why the pressure has been increased EVERYWHERE on the line of contact. 404 is bound to buckle somewhere at some point with no hope of plugging the hole. At this point 404 is in a continuous process of decision making much more than Russia’s GS – where to send the reinforcements in order for a hole to be prevented. It is a game of dwindling resources and a race against time that 404 will most certainly lose.
As for NATO – well, if they go in with boots – they will be seen by the global south as war mongers (and they will lose). If they do not go in – they will have to just watch their military hardware disappear. Holland pledged all their Leopards – what’s left? Bicycles?
On the economic front, the picture is even worse for the West and sadly (for the West), it is not going to get better. I personally am preparing for a crash of epic proportions with lawlessness and riots to follow. Remember? In Argentina they used to throw people out of helicopters….
Good thinking, Oddo. Apply pressure and see where and how the defense bursts. Exploit if able.
IMO, this ends with NATO combat boots on the ground any way you cut it. However, I do believe that with a quick and undeniable victory, by Russia, right now, there is a real hope that the west may start looking for an off ramp. The west has been lying to its populations all along, big time. Smash the lies before they can figure out ways of soft peddling out. The populations may turn on their governments in a way that prevents combat boots on the ground.
I found recently this blog and I am astonished of the clear style and thoughts it contains.
I am writing from Cuba. For most Cubans, Russia-Ukraine war has two faces: As a small country, of course we reject being invaded or abused by a bigger one. On the other hand, there are many cubans married with Russians or Ukrainians, living in Cuba or at those countries, since the Soviets era or later. And most of them (even the residents at Kiev) condemns the liberal-nazi regime of Zelensly. Also the government has very close ties to Russia, in the past helped ukrainian sick kids of Chernobyl, and appears publicly and officially to be neutral at any stage, TV don’t shows almost any war news excepting big events and shortly, but you may see that personally every leader, spokeman, presenter or analyst wants Russia to wipe out the “ukronazis”. At the same time the Ukrainian Embassy tried to recruit cubans to fight there (only two signed and later declined.)and had a problem with a cargo ship, while Russia sends one ship after another of humanitarian aid to Cuba, as oxygen plants, electric spart parts, wheat flour or COVID masks. So, Cubans has to read foreign news, Telegram or You Tube channels to know what’s. going on there.
Thanks for the blog
Gustavo,
You may already know this, but there is an increasingly strong case for Russia’s claim that it was acting in collective self-defense (UN Art. 51) and had exhausted ever diplomatic possibility (Minsk 1, 2 etc.) short of war, attempted an SMO with minimal casualties to demonstrate its seriousness, negotiated a quick peace–and saw even this destroyed by the West.
Excellent summation.
This is the second time today i’ve heard article 51 invoked. Previously, i was unaware of it. I need to read it, but from your summation, it seems to apply perfectly to the Russian situation RE expansion of NATO and broken promises. A very excellent point. Thanks for your post.
Saludos Ing, yes you are correct, Cuba has had a good relationship with both countries and has to keep a balanced neutrality. I think this is the case with many of the latin american countries, the progressive ones at least. The hope is that they sue for peace in some form or another. The sooner the better, its not like the russians don’t want to end this either.
“However, I do believe that with a quick and undeniable victory, by Russia, right now, there is a real hope that the west may start looking for an off ramp”
Exactly. Exactly what is required.
And not that you agree, your point is superior vs. Hemholtz’s aging Positive Pep Rally that does not count the continuing deaths of (now) Russian civilians (even in hospital beds) via US weaponry.
I hate to say it (not really) “Ante up or fold,” This game does have a time limit and time waits for No One.”
Russian losses, even members of US military “brain trust” admit are approximately 1/10 that of Kievs, and while I hate to say it (because all losses matter) Russian civilian losses have been negligible in terms of a war for national survival, which most Russians understand is the kind being fought.The longer the war goes on the weaker the Russian pro-western “compromise” faction becomes. Russian “open society” liberals have been a miserable failure for the western regime change ghouls and they grow weaker by the day. Russian losses , economic, diplomatic and military mostly came up front , while NATO is slowly bleeding out. Time is absolutely on Russias side.
You’re thinking like an American, like the fools now conducting the war for Ukraine, teenagers stalking their first orgasm, chasing any “skirt” they see. Try to think like a Russian, 200 yrs old, cautious, determined, caring of men, then sit back in that comfy and watch…
One thing I read recently is that Turkey has the largest military presence in NATO. Erdogan stated he has no intention of fighting Russia which means his troops stand down and return home NATO want troop in Ukraine. NATO doesn’t have much in the way of ammunition. For instance, Germany is reported to have just days of ammunition. This week the US threatened Turkey with sanctions if they continue to fly US made passenger jets, which Turkey paid for, to Russia. Erdogan as also stated thoughts on leaving NATO..which is not a real surprise. It sounds like NATO boots on the ground is a terrible idea & could have the potential to extremely harm what is left of the alliance. Any thoughts?
Yes, Turkey will be a key here. It seems the NeoCons want to escalate further…. tanks, fighter jets, long range missiles, NATO boots, etc. Expect the Screaming Eagles to try to take a shot at Crimea…. if NATO ground forces can get across the Dnipre at Kerson.
Russia clearly intends to secure the areas they’ve annexed….. and are slowly accomplishing that. That effort will likely intensify in the next few weeks. They’d also still like to get Odessa and Karkiv, but…. dunno.
Back to Turkey. Elections upcoming in May. No serious opposition candidate to Erdogan yet. He’s very likely to win. U.S. will most likely try to create unrest if he wins, like in Iran, which will just irritate the Turks and push them toward Russia and China. (John Bolton wants Turkey out of NATO.) WEF/U.S. seems to be signaling they want to concentrate more on China. Some still have dreams of eliminating Russia as a world power, but more and more seem to be preparing to move on without getting that done for now….. especially considering the sanctions, as usual, don’t seemed to have had much effect and the Ukrainian military and now foreign mercenaries continue to be reduced daily.
Without Turkey’s military fighting with NATO on the ground in Ukraine, there doesn’t seem to be a path for achievement of their goals there. Turkey isn’t likely to overtly side with either Russia or China (like India), but if pushed too hard they might. That would be a huge benefit to both Russia and China and might also encourage other countries to either remain on the sidelines or at least increase relations with both Russia and China. U.S. could maintain if they pull back and concentrate on all the problems in their own country, but Europe might be toast…. at least reduced to being subsistence level bystanders.
Great article and reply comment
Given situation that has unfolded it is hard to fault Russia strategy and tactics now, nonetheless I think the Russians gravely underestimated the criminal psychosis that has gripped the Western globalist hegemons and as consequence made big mistake by not going in much harder much earlier way back even before Feb 2014. But that mistake I suspect was made in good faith and a rather naïve belief that there was some grain of common sense in the leadership of the Anglo-American-EU-NATO leadership.
Let’s consider the wider historic context and much longer and sordid history and how the Anglo-American gang funded and created conditions for all the great wars of last century, as well as setting up and funding the Bolshevik Revolution – refer the brilliant research and writing of Antony C Sutton https://www.antonysutton.com/
Most people who read articles posted on Solar21 will know that in 1990 agreement was brokered between Gorbachev / USSR government and George Bush / James Baker / American government and West German government by which the West faithfully promised not extend borders of NATO towards Russia but under Clinton they broke that promise and began extending NATO borders towards Russia. What was most astonishing was how Gorbachev government never got that agreement put into writing and somehow most curiously they relied on handshake promise (which, however one tries to look at it, was incredibly naïve given the prior horror that the Western nations had inflicted on Russia and USSR).
Given my prior years of reading and researching the real history, as opposed to official fictions, way back then in 1990 I was assuming that the Russians would never fall for the promises made by West – and that they were playing an even more sophisticated subterfuge by pretending to believe the West and go along with dismantling Warsaw so as to buy themselves time to better prepare for what they knew must eventually unfold based on the long history of constant attacks from Western imperial powers to smash Russia and gain control of the heartland and effective control of the Eurasian landmass (as Sir Halford Mackinder stated was necessary prerequisite for total world dominion).
I was shocked beyond belief when the Russians allowed that drunken criminal traitor Yeltsin to act out the western-choreographed theatre of jumping up on the tank in Moscow with western media news and TV cameras filming him ostensibly saving Russia from the staged communist coup and allowing him to be subsequently ensconced as President of Russia – after which Yeltsin, in service of his western handlers, gave the Harvard economists / Marc Rich / Jeffrey Sachs gang carte blanche to implement so-called free market reforms and privatization, which they named ‘Shock Therapy’ and which resulted in the rape of Russia and the establishment of a seriously corrupt oligarchy resulting in ten million or more Russians starving to death or drinking themselves to death before they starved. I was never able to conceive that the Russians would have allowed themselves to be tripped down that hole – but they did.
Fortunately for Russia and the world, Putin managed to adroitly maneuver his way into the Presidency (which I understand – I may be wrong – necessitated him having to sign off on full immunity for Yeltsin’s betrayal of Russia). And to his credit, afterwards Putin tried everything in his power to join forces with America and the rest of the world so as to bring about a much greater peaceful and co-operative world – but as equal partners able to decide their own respective sovereign futures.
Nevertheless, in hindsight, which is always so easy for armchair critiquing, I think Putin and the Russians even then continued to vastly underestimate the Western globalist hegemons and their truly pernicious ambitions to own the world along with everything and everybody in it. I think (emphasis on ‘I think’ because I may well be wrong which I will get to) Putin took far too long to fully appreciate the extent of the criminal psychopathy of the real power as represented by the Anglo-American-EU governments.
I recently heard on a video discussion from one of the better-informed American commentators (exact source I cannot recall nor have I been able to easily find verification of this so this may or may not be true and perhaps someone who knows can verify in reply) that the Russian military did enter Ukraine / Donbass immediately post Maidan coup. The report I listened to stated it was due to that quick intervention in 2014 that prompted the West to conduct urgent brokering of Minsk Agreement, which as we now know from Angela Merkel was brokered purely as deceptive cover to give the West time to arm and train a much greater Ukrainian army in order to wage war against Russia.
Following directly below is very recent 11min presentation by Mark Sleboda about the massive amounts of weapons and tanks the West poured into Ukraine post Minsk agreement – it is truly mindboggling – most of which the Russians have recently destroyed.
Ukraine’s Three Armies
28 Jan 2023 11min presentation by Mark Sleboda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3jU87sJ8p-c&ab_channel=TheRealPolitickwithMarkSleboda
So I believe that Russia was far too trusting and should never have allowed themselves to be deceived by the treacherous Western powers and that they should have gone hard out way back immediately after the 2014 Maidan Coup which would have obviated any chance for the West to betray them and arm Ukraine the way did. Nevertheless, I concede that subsequent to this massive arming of Ukraine that the Russian strategy and tactics can be argued as the best means of dealing with the threat whilst avoiding too many Russian servicemen dying and avoiding as much as possible unnecessary Ukrainian civilian deaths and casualties.
But (in hypothetical world) had I been making the decisions for Russia long before 2014, I would have been better prepared for the western treachery that precedent history informed was certain to come. And especially immediately after Maidan I would have pulled out all stops to go full on to smash the Nazi filth in Ukraine – I would never have believed or trusted the West, especially Germany, to honour their promise to ensure Kiev government honour the Minsk Agreement and thereafter to arm and prepare Ukraine for war.
However – I may be wrong on all the assumptions above, in so far as perhaps Putin and the Russians may have other deeper secret sources of information that they are basing their decisions on and they may therefore be way ahead in the great global chess game (as I suspect could be the case) i.e. perhaps the Russians have always known that full blown war with Anglo-American-ruled Western bloc was inevitable and that the criminally insane psychopaths who own and run our western governments would never ever stop until they had finally destroyed and broken up the Russian Federation to own and control it all (which they thought they were on verge of achieving under Yeltsin treachery). And if that is the case then the Russians are playing the perfect game, because they know it can only end in massive horrendous war and yes with nukes flying (there is no question in my mind that the Strangelove Anglo-American-EU psychos are that insane and more).
So that would explain the slowly slowly approach by which the Russians are carefully destroying Ukraine military capabilities while they are learning everything they need to learn and know as they closely watch and monitor every move the west is making in Ukraine and as they get to learn about all the West’s weapons capabilities on the battlefield – as they hope beyond hope that when in desperation the West does launch a NATO-led response into Ukraine through Poland and other borders like Moldova that they can quickly destroy them and hope that the West will not in their madness resort to nukes in their last ditch final vain attempt to destroy Russia – hence the Russians are building and positioning huge forces and waiting for that moment to come, while they are slowly but surely destroying the Ukrainian army.
If and when Angle-American-NATO psychos put boots on the ground in Ukraine, as I think is highly probable now (never underestimating the extent of their insanity and boundless pursuit of power) then we will witness the complete annihilation of America and UK and western Europe – not that there will be much left standing in such event – it will all be terrifyingly swift and sudden.
I do think this is, above all other scenarios, the scenario that the Russians have to be considering as the most likely final outcome of this madness – and although they are doing everything they can to avoid it the Russians are preparing with much greater finesse including ramping up on all fronts not least in industrial munitions capacity.
Whatever unfolds from here it is becoming increasingly difficult to see or believe that the globalist criminals will ever come to their senses and negotiate any sensible outcome that works for all nations which can only ever come about with agreement to enable a shared-power multipolar world with sovereign nations having self-autonomy.
Col MacGregor’s latest article on Zero Hedge is informative:
Macgregor: This Time It’s Different
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/macgregor-time-its-different
and this brief video discussion provides good accurate insight into the real FDR and his actions leading up to Pearl Harbour – I post this for the stark similarities pertaining to current dynamics unfolding between USA and China
Douglas Macgregor – Prepared for an all-out War.
19min YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BuE9YSprxiM&ab_channel=Campaign23s
In that presentation MacGregor relates how a couple of historians contacted him and walked him through all the sordid details as to how FDR goaded Japan into attacking USA, by his directives to US military and Navy to keep intruding into Japanese territorial waters and many other provocations not least blockading sea lanes to prevent Japan from receiving shipments of oil – Japan being totally dependent on seaborne oil imports. Note the parallels with American policies and actions in seas just off Taiwan and China today – it is almost exact same with the only difference this is China not Japan, and if America and West are struggling with industrial arms production to support Ukrainian Army needs and are unable to keep up with Russian production then they will be in for a very sickening shock if they manage to tip China over the edge and prompt a war with China as China’s manufacturing capacities dwarfs everything in America and combined West – as you all well know.
And last but not least – to confirm the arrogant insanity and direction of American command posing as intelligent military strategists – check this report on Zero Hedge 30 Jan, regarding a memo that General Mike (Strangelove) Minihan sent to his officers in Air Mobility Command:
Air Force General Tells His Officers ‘War With China’ Only 2 Years Away
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/air-force-general-tells-his-officers-war-china-only-2-years-away
Thanks for this. Brilliant.
“Holland pledged all their Leopards – what’s left? Bicycles?”
Not bicycles. Take note of French WW-I history. Send Paris taxicabs.
The Über of the Marne.
No big arrows for the Russians. That’s the US. Always something big — and fast. Big Macs are the meme written into cognitive code. For the American military — Big Arrows. Umm…straight to Bagdad. Where is Ukraine’s “Bagdad.
Nope, not that kind of war. What you have is theater conflict, with UAF manpower distributed in a matrix of fortifications, what I call the “maginot grid”. When they come out to fight in “big arrow” offensives, they get slaughter for lack of artillery, air support, armor, training. Real-time militarization.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/big-serges-big-surge
Holland does have an awful lot of bicycles, they could turn the tide.
I agree. The best historical analogy I can think of is the 1918 100 Days in which the western allies defeated the German Army through a relentless grinding offensive. The big differences now are that Russia will minimize her own casualties and will not want to allow any ambiguity over whether they really won. Whatever western propaganda will say: whatever happens western populations will be told that “Putin lost”. “He really wanted his troops to be drinking wine in Paris….”
Yes, I remember. Living in the same Zeitgeist it’s impossible to forget.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11673-014-9544-1
” told the prisoners that they were to receive a “vaccination” prior to the transfer, but actually …”
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/10714839.1995.11722903
“They were given strong sedatives that they were told were vaccines, and then put on a plane…”
Hello DODO, straight from NL: Holland does not have any Leopards. They lease 18 of them from Germany to be able to do exercises with the German army. NL and Germany have a joint Battle Group.
The Dutch PM said this week he intends to buy those tanks to send to Ukraine.
Politically speaking where to get the money and the Dutch millitairy oppose.
However the female who acts as Minister of Defense is a member of a leftish liberal Globalist party intend to beat the hell out of the Russians.
So those tanks are not expected to arrive on the battlefront shortly, if ever I expect.
“ I think decision has already been made”
Going in wherever a hole opens up is not really a decision, but a reaction. Everything We have seen of Russia argues that they are much more deliberate, tentative, and adapt quickly to the situation.
On the war of attrition side, the “Empire of Lies” is self-attriting. Russia needs to do little more than let the US and NATO keep doing more of what is clearly not working for them.
When? When should we expect the crash? This week, next month?
The ‘Marker’ antitank battle droids will have a much easier task if the targets are all western only tank platforms. A year ago, both sides had large stocks of T-72s, making it hard to distinguish between friends and foes. When the NATO tanks are on the battlefield, they will stand out like sore thumbs, particularly the IR signature of the Abrams. In theory, with a good enough identification algorithm, the droids could be set to shoot western tanks on sight.
The Israelis are running advance promotional videos for their Lanius autonomous suicide drone. It is a small hobbyist-sized drone that operates anywhere including indoors and uses imaging analysis to autonomously identify humans, fly into them and detonate itself. The first iteration of the “killer-sparrow” drone which could potentially make the use of infantry obsolete.
In the video they are promoting it as an anti-terrorist weapon that would only blow-up bad people holding weapons. Right, I’m sure.
The promotional video can be found by a quick internet search.
yup here yu go – this stuff below is right around the corner. looks like soldiers are going to need to have short range emp energy weapons with them also.
Sci-Fi Short Film “Slaughterbots” | DUST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU
Drone Warfare-Angel Has Fallen Drone Attack Scene
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54hioQSUEaU
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/security-aviation/2022-11-18/ty-article/.premium/israels-elbit-sytems-unveiled-micro-suicide-drone-and-it-has-a-mother-ship/00000184-84d2-dd3b-a5bf-c4d6e2880000
https://youtu.be/4McPHBQ9pNw
The Babylon Bee pointed out today that the American tanks will be easily spotted and destroyed by the Russians, since they will be painted in rainbow colors….
Follow Radek Sikorski, this should give some clarity as to the US plan going forward. Mozart Group were lying about training slayers? Remember ol Andy is originally a Brit, his Twitter PIC looks like he was visitin’ Ptown:)
“The longer this goes on the weaker Russia’s enemies become. So in the big war, time and developments favor Russia and there is no incentive to make “big arrow” movements.”
I’m going to question that idea. For it to carry weight, I think you’d have to show how Russia achieving its objectives in Ukraine specifically would put an end to the west’s self-induced weakening. And yes, I know, I know, someone is going to jump in say that the – or a – goal of the SMO is to demilitarize Ukraine. IMO that goal has both changed and is irrelevant to what I’m going to say.
The goal posts have moved ever since the ethnic Russian portions of eastern Ukraine voted to be a part of Russia. When the SMO jumped off, protecting expanded Russian borders was not a thing. Now it is. As we sit today, there are Ukro and NATO forces inside Russian territory.
If Russia eliminated UkroNATO forces from Russian territory, would the conflict end? Would the west’s self-damaging sanctions be lifted? No. They would not. Strictly militarily speaking, would NATO stop sending weapons and ordnance into Ukraine? I think, again, the answer is “no – they would not”. IMO, an undeniable decisive victory in eastern Ukrainian would inflict huge political damage on the western government and media structures and the NATO would have to flood western Ukraine with troops and goodies that go “BOOM” to show that while Russia may have taken the east, there’s no way Crazy Putin’s army of Orks can go marching clean across Europe! Damn it! Similarly, NATO countries would have to dedicate larger portions of their already stressed GDPs to building up militaries.
Finally, the longer the situation drags on, the more time for the west to uncover and exploit Russian weaknesses. As time goes on, risk goes up (for the Russians).
So I’m not buying the slow grind as 5D chess proposition. IMO, the Russians seriously misjudged resistance (as you note) and are having some other issues that are preventing them from smashing Ukraine, once and for all, and in short order. IMO, they’re not doing it because they can’t. Some of it is political. It’s one thing for Donbas militias and prisoners working on redeeming themselves to get KIA’ed. It’s another thing entirely for large numbers of regular Russians in the military to be lost. IMO Russia is casualty adverse just as any other modern nation becomes – and that is driving a lot of the decision making.
IMHO the only reason 404 has not been obliterated off the face of the earth in one big offensive is because that is guaranteed to provoke a response from NATO – the “public opinion” drives policy in the West daily and this is why the west suffers from a “no horizon” policy – meaning, decisions are based on daily popularity numbers – not on long term national interests.
If you are slowly grinding down a defense, you offer no points of obvious escalation – nothing for NATO public to react to. In this way Russia has tampered the NATO response – which oddly enough everyone calls NATO “escalation”. I call it “directed escalation” and it is directed by Russia at its own pace of NATO hardware absorption capability.
Oddo, agree – a frog in a boiling pot doesnt realize its being cooked until it croaks.
The EU (especially French and German) populace has no stomach for body bags coming home from Ukraine – Eastern or Western Ukraine. NATO/US have no strategic objective – just weaken Russia. That’s not going to work given NATO/US are running out of weapons – the cupboards are bare. Throwing the 101st Airborne, a few Poles and Romanian troops at Russia’s combined arms forces would be a disaster. NATO/US are backed into a corner by their own incompetence and arrogance.
“So I’m not buying the slow grind as 5D chess proposition.”
Lmao … Neither am I.
Back in May I went on record (;–), that the only reason I could think as to why the Russians were not taking out the Dnieper bridges, and other critical infrastructure necessary for the enemy’s logistical trains, which stretched all the way back to America, is they wanted the Ukraine army to waltz up to their contact line, free of charge, so they could then, blow them up.
With artillery. They needed the Ukies to hug them tight, because it was already apparent (to me at least) the Russians went into this fight with a healthy supply of long range missiles and short range artillery shells, but what they sorely lacked, was the in-betweeners, the rockets necessary for their rocket systems to be able to fire off more than a quarter of a salvo every other month.
I was called an idiot and a fool by everyone, for the main reason, that no sane General Staff would allow their enemy the freedom to reinforce whatever sector of the front suited their fancy at any given moment, when the firepower required to prevent such a thing was readily available.
I have to admit, their logic was impeccable, and I agreed with them, I was an idiot and fool, but I was going to stick by my unbelievably stupid theory regardless, because I would never accept the only one they offered, that the reason the Russians weren’t rapidly shutting down the Ukraine army’s ability to function was because the Russians were an extraordinarily nice people, who would never injure even a kitten* if it could be avoided on their path to mutli-polar victory.
Now I agree it is possible the Russians are an all-time historically friendly people. But I refuse to believe they don’t have so much as a clue how as to fight a real war and win it.
Something is going on. The Russians can win this war in Ukraine tomorrow, simply by shutting off all power to the west of their postions, but some for reason, the power remains on, and they instead continue to engage in an endless series of fearsome local firefights with their peashooters, with an enemy we are told, that has been completely elimated from the battlerolls twice over.
Or is it thrice over now?
*The beginning of the Russian SMO, said that dirty Ukrainian turncoat Oleksii Aristovich, was not only fearless, fast, and elegent, it was also designed to be so gentle in nature, it wouldn’t hurt a kitten.
Quote of the war so far for me.
“simply by shutting off all power to the west of their postions”
Easier said than done. The US should have been able to easily stop all logistical supplies getting to the Taliban in Afghanistan and yet not only did the Taliban remain supplied, but attacks against US forces increase as time passed.
I think Military Summary Channel mentioned recently that Russia has decided to blow up all the bridges across the Dneiper. When, I don’t know. It seems this would be a problem for Ukrainian supply.
Alexander Mercouris also has/had a fixation with the bridges across the Dneiper.
I am an expat who lived in Ukraine until leaving in June 2022.
It is my view Russia will not destroy the bridges across the Dneiper.
3 primary reasons-
#1. Aside from a couple, most of the bridges across the Dneiper are within the territory of 3 large cities- Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia and Kiev. I do not see Russia destroying 20 bridges in the middle of these 3 cities.
#2. By now it should be clear to most people with non-mainstream info sources- that Russia must occupy all or most of Ukraine to achieve the security zone it wants/needs.
Leaving any portion of Ukraine territory accessible to AmeriNATO just means a new conflict in months or years.
Russia needs these bridges for this purpose.
#3. Russia needs to get Ukraine quickly functioning again once this conflict is over.
Blowing the bridges causes far more problems than it solves.
Plus it should be pretty clear Russia wants to draw the fighting to the current areas.
What is the point of fighting across Ukraine and causing all kinds of damage that Russia will have to repair to get Ukraine going again.
Russia can quickly win over many Ukrainians with peace, financial security and strong economic growth.
Ukraine cleansed of all western influence and under Russian control actually has a much better future.
100 percent correct.
In my opinion, reasons for fighting the way they are fighting are simple (slow and methodical grind):
1 – Even if they cut bridges, its very easy to create pontoon bridges that can be periodically moved to avoid long range attacks. You have to understand that only things that are under direct artillery fire (range of 20-30 km) are sure to be destroyed if they can move. If you attack pontoon bridge that is 300 km away, unless you fire hypersonic for it (which is not cost effective), 1000 kmh missile needs 20 minutes to arrive, which means that pontoon bridge could easily be emptied and easily moved in that time, or even let to be hit since destroyed pontoon section is probably cheaper then even basic cruise missile.
2 – Purpose is to destroy will to fight of UKR people – if you surround them and capture them, you will have a lot of surrendered combatants who will then go home and many of them would go to guerilla.
This way, you make them enormous losses all the time, but also by allowing few “counter offensives” with no real strategic gain, you have encouraged them to come and fight, and then you can blast them as much as you need until every UKR illusion is broken for the whole nation – just imagine when people find out how much were they abused by the regime and how much they have needlessly suffered trying to win unwinnable war while everything RU side was saying proves to be the truth?
Yes sure, some extremists will still exist, but they will lose complete support of the regular people and that is the real way to destroy the nation – i.e. when people realize that their “nation” is just not good for them
3 – As long as UKR forces can fight, they keep them very far from the border – why, because if they start fighting 20-30 km from the border, West could lob simple artillery to RU positions claiming that is was not them but in fact UKR, and if RU responds, they could easily pretend that they are the victims of an unprovoked attack which would help them mobilize their masses, and they desperately need that as otherwise they cannot justify spending and efforts
The events that are presently taking place including the fall of towns after towns to RUF only prove that Russian strategy of slow grind is working
There is also the political and economic dimension to take into consideration. Will the economic policies of the west toward Russia undermine public support as those political decisions result in a declining economy? If Biden’s public support in the US beings to tumble as time and the election nears, will he change his position and policies?
Both Vietnam and Afghanistan are examples of how lack of US public support have led to changes in the policies of the US government and a pullout of those regions. Of course, there are too many variables to be able to accurately predict just how far the US may go in the pursuit of its goals. With Biden mental abilities in question and people like Blinken and Nuland whispering in his ear who can predict.
Seems to me Eric, that the goal of the SMO has changed. At the start, it was to demilitarize the Ukraine, but having seen the response of the US/Nato, the Russian high command has realized that it can sit back and relax while demilitarizing the US/Nato. The US definitely does not want to send in those Abrams simply because the MIC has had enough of their razzle dazzle weapons systems shown to be worthless in a real combat situation, and the Abrams turning into piles of burnt scrap metal will not be good for future sales.
I’ll have to disagree here. Russia has conducted a very deliberate campaign with few missteps. They are following a grand strategy that goes back 20+ years that has had many potential routes to what ultimately they wanted to achieve, namely a secure and prospering Russia. Gorbachev et al; deliberately collapsed the USSR “collapse early, avoid the rush”. They knew the system wasn’t sustainable and there is no graceful way to undo such a large system. They also knew that the West couldn’t be trusted and it was destined to fail as well. Since that time Russia has been rebuilding and preparing for the inevitable collapse of the US empire. In fact both Russia and China have been working very diligently to slow that collapse down as best as possible. No one benefits from the uncontrolled decline of the US. However, the US has gone a step too far with Ukraine and Russia is going to use this conflict to end the US empire, there is really no other option.
For the most, I agree.
I disagree only in that rather than “deliberate collapse” I believe Gorbachev simply lost control of Perestroika to the organized criminal gangs that had long permeated the deeply corrupt Soviet political structure. As soon as the opportunity presented itself, those forces and their international networks swarmed Russia to strip it bare.
Yes, Russia collapsed along with all the other Soviet Republics, but it wasn’t due to any cunning plan to “collapse early and avoid the rush”. It took a concerted, ruthless and occasionally bloody effort by a group of hard-nosed patriots surrounding V. Putin to pull Russia out of its free-fall.
Meanwhile, Ukraine remained under criminal control and finally that same core group has turned its attention on putting a stop to its free-fall.
Eric, see my reply to you at https://sonar21.com/the-u-s-and-nato-seem-hell-bent-on-starting-a-shooting-war-with-russia/#comment-110641
FWIW David Glantz says Stalin’s approach was to always keep pressure all along the front on the idea that a weakness could be found and exploited.
Cronyism, Nepotism & Hubris will undo the fractured West.
We have become a collection of godless, rudderless narcissists.
Thank you Hollywood and your owners.
The same crew who sold us on the fear of Covid and the safety of mRNA have tried (and failed) to sell us the fear of Putin and the safety of NATO
We live in bubble of old world gas and we are intoxicated by it.
Less that 1% of the west even understands it because our Oligarchs have kept us divided and distracted for their own amusement for generations now.
Everything is fake except for the Global South’s Great Awakening.
The USD now lies exposed as the BRICS+ commodity backed asset comes into being.
Nothing fake about it.
We reap what we sow and we’ve been sowing division and stupidity for generations now because we’ve been high on our own farts.
The traitors among us need to hang and common sense must return before they Samson us all.
Cheers
That summary should be framed and put on your wall as “the most accurate assessment of the fall of the West written in less than 500 words”. 100% agree. Divide and conquer your own people then scratch your head when a united people smash and crush your divided and weak societies.
Indeed! Agreed totally
Bang on the money, but…
“The traitors among us need to hang…”
Traitors don’t hang themselves, somebody has to hang them. That somebody has to not only be ruthless, he must also have the gravitas to pull a crazy quilt of divided polities together.
Russia had Putin et al to do what had to be done. What they did couldn’t be done until Russia had bounced at least once off the bottom. It is said that “Comes the moment, comes the man”, and for the West that moment ain’t here yet.
Anyway, I second the comments from Westerner and Cortes.
Yes, you hit it on the head. The history books are going to be thick and wide on how the USA failed. It is too stupid to be stupid, which is why I think it has been intentional.
Please God, let these demonic humans learn their lesson..
“Therefore, I believe that the Russian high command is in a continual decision loop. Every morning it considers whether to continue the present strategy or start the “big arrow” move to bring it to an end before NATO does something irretrievably stupid. It’s a careful balancing process.”
Just saw everything after the “But” in your post. Somehow missed before when I first commented. Totally agree. IMO, that’s where the Russians are at and it is their dilemma.
MacDouclas says you’re delusional if you think Russia has gathered all these forces and doesn’t intend use them. Scott Ritter also believes the forces will come into play pretty soon. However, during the last month both of them have moderated their views about the scale of the possible incursions.
If the troops are there only to prevent NATO from doing something stupid, Russia must be gambling on a collapse. The snail pace at which the operation is going isn’t good enough. Prigozhin simply said that there are 500 possible defense lines in Bakhmut after the first one was penetrated. Another Russian analyst said it this way: The Bakhmut-Siversk defense line looks like a path in a flower field compared to the Toretsk-Slavyansk defense line.
If you study the map, you’ll realize that Russia’s task is gigantic.
However, I think something’s gotta give, and we will get a Ukrainian collapse in Donbass sometime this spring.
It is a matter of time before NATO and US provide Ukraine with F16s. It is a slippery slope of escalation since the jets will be based on EU soil and flown by NATO pilots.
And they will explode and die in a hail of AS-400 SAMs. What’s it going to take for NATO to take an off ramp? Complete thermonuclear destruction of Europe and the USA? Seems like it’s heading that way.
Indeed, US F-16s will do some damage, but many, if not most, of them will end up as wreckage on the ground. Maybe that will induce an escalation to F-35s, which will suffer the same fate—that is if they don’t crash due to some malfunction. In essence, the west will be complicit in their own demilitarization.
Exactly.
Ukranazistan’s NATO owners don’t even have to base the planes in Ukranazistan. They can take off from airports in Polandistan, where they’re serviced by NATOstani ground crew, refuel from NATOstani tankers in Polandistani airspace, dash into Ukranazi airspace to fire off their missiles, and rush back into Polandistan airspace. If Russian anti aircraft missiles, say the S 400, shoot them down over Polandistani territory, that will be presented as a direct attack on NATOstan, and hence Russia will more than likely be deterred from firing on them unless they’re deep inside Ukranazi territory. Which, if they have sense, they will not be.
If aircraft fly from Poland to attack Russian targets then Poland automatically recuses itself from NATO Article 5 protection and Russia is free to destroy those planes and their support in Polish airspace. Isn’t that the case?
We tend to focus on a couple of alternatives with blinders as to other options for Russia, and for the US. NATO putting boots on the ground would be a tacit admission of defeat, obvious to any intelligent person. Russia is plugging away, not concerned about real estate but with eliminating the Ukrainian forces, and doing a good job of it at relatively low cost in terms of lives on their side. Somewhere in NATO intelligence the truth has to be known, and the Rand Corp. is already spinning a new narrative, that objectives of weakening Russia have been met, so the US/NATO can step back, conveniently morphing the narrative away from supporting democracy and freedom in Ukraine to “weakening Russia”, even though that hasn’t happened. All propaganda with a compliant media.
We can see signs that some are looking for an exit from the hot part of the war. The real problem lies with the financial part of the war and the risk to the US dollar. Dragging this out magnifies the problems there, to Russia’s benefit. And China’s too. The west has no viable answer to this one other than to re-industrialize after all the decades of globalization, a move against the Davos crowd. There world had key bottlenecks they controlled in the global trade system, and they’re losing those. Game over for the dollar is the bigger issue here and will carry its own unintended consequences. It’s gonna hurt when that one hits us. The jugglers can’t manage anymore and have no option for this one. Even nuclear war exacerbates their problem.
Our side has no cards and should just fold, walk away from the table and set about seriously fixing things at home. Whether Russia moves fast or slow, we end up there. More pain for us longer if they move slow. I suspect they know that.
“The west has no viable answer to this one other than to re-industrialize after all the decades of globalization”
Agree. Which is another reason I laugh at all the socialists and assorted Russian and China fanboys who come here to cheer what they hope will be the destruction of the west. As I have said to them, the result of this brouhaha will be the west reindustrializes and comes back stronger than ever, as capitalists and as empire. Socialism/communism have no chance. Russia will be relegated to second playing second or third fiddle, as always. Excellent. Andrei Martyanov’s face becomes profusely sweaty and deep red and then his head explodes at that point.
I live in the US, very little capitalism here. The government is involved/interferes in all areas of the economy, that is not capitalism or free market. Last time I looked, the US is bankrupt.
Only problem with that thinking is everything. 400 billion in yearly subsidies to agriculture. Where is that going to come from if US govt can’t sell bonds to China?
Where can you get the engineering manpower if you don’t have enough graduates? How can you build industries if they aren’t price competitive? How will you pay for raw materials if you can’t sell debt and already have 200 trillion govt and private debt on a 25 trillion economy. When you find out that 25 trillion economy is mainly financial fraud which will reduce to probably less than 7 trillion.
Russia is doing exactly that, pay cash as you go. Not taking more loans from banking cartel. A modern war not funded by debt, is it a first since the kings of Europe started borrowing from Rothschild? STEM education in Russia without debt, its all there, the future. At some point, a few amphibious warships and small cruisers parked off Denmark will collapse NATO.
I don’t think it will turn out that way.
The west has shown no capabilities to re-industrialize and faces too many mounting problems to do so. Debts without end, a collapsing dollar on the horizon, inflation inflation inflation, to a point where their own citizens are disgruntled and angry, and there are mounting numbers of people who are disillusioned with their systems.
They lack both the required manpower, expertise, and infrastructure in the US to re-industrialize, and lack for manpower and expertise in much of Europe. They’ve off-shored everything, nobody wants to bring it back, and few people who know how to bring it back even exist.
The waning political control of the west, the imminent demographic warfare, and the inability to simply print money to fund everything, are huge issues that all feed into one another. I think they’re going to choke the life out of the empire, and it’s too late to reverse any of those trends. And their enemies are too well positioned and knowledgeable to simply let that weakness sneak by.
Also, the Socialism/Capitalism/Communism dichotomy is for plebs and useful idiots. Russia and China don’t practice anything communist in fashion and are nationalist/ethno-nationalist states at best. Russia cares about the Russian Empire. China cares about the Han Chinese.
We extol the virtues of capitalism, but that is the very system that has brought us to where we are. That can’t be explained away that next time will be different as why would it be, why expect a different outcome from the same factors? In many ways the real culprit is financialization, and again, as they hold the reigns of power that won’t be going anywhere easily either.
Reindustrialize? How? Robot factories I suppose, so we have a population with no jobs and no way of purchasing these fancy gizmos. The problem is that the capitalist system has failed, or why would the west be in this situation? No different to communism failing the USSR. What is required is a rethink to utilize the entrepreneurship capitalism fosters while eliminating all its warts, and those warts are the aspect our rulers will determined to hang on to as it opens the door to the parasitism that enriches them.
There are different phases in Capitalism. Industrialisation is first. When this phase matures it is either Socialism, as in the means of production in the hands of the workers operating them. Or, the alternative, accumulated wealth by the few invested and yielding less and less profit, thus capitalism becoming more aggressive, vicious to colonies and its own people. Wars follow to ensure profitability and resources. One or the other. No middle way in the long term.In the short term yes. But in the long term it eats its flesh and us. The fodder. Sounds crazy huh? No, this is the effect of Capitalism’s main and only objective: MAXIMISE PROFIT. At all costs. Including your life and your children.
Here is a simple example. 1922. The Great Depression caused by the burst bubble the banks created when they found a way to profit from the accumulated capital in their deposits. Re: maximise profit and nothing less. 1933, the Glass-Steagall Act was voted which stopped banks investing their customers’ savings to risky stockmarket etc. Then, 1999 Clinton (the Male!) voted it out. 10 years it took… 2008, the bubble created and burst.
If you think you can keep Capitalism in its industrialisation phase then think again. In the meantime all proles’ tombstones will be having this: maximise profit and nothing less.
Finance/capital is a good thing if put into competitive projects with a positive ROI. What is bad is when useless paper instruments are traded, when the government invests in stupid projects with no return for the US people (Afghanistan nation building, Iraq and now Ukraine), and crony capitalism which permits the other two bad features.
Eliminate crony capitalism and the system works just fine. Better than any other. Post new American revolution congress creeps would be limited to two terms, there would be limits on donations and lobbyists. There would be amendments to the Constitution that address and prevent the ability of the federal government to grow and to excessively regulate. Also, third world immigration would be severely curtailed by law.
Damn, Eric! We could only wish that would come true! I agree 110% with the above. Get the damn, unproductive corrupt government out of our lives!
Eliminate crony capitalism? For how long? Greed will always ensure any laws restricting it get rescinded. Glass-Steagal came, and it went. Boom then bust. Capitalism will always evolve like this. Professor Richard Wolff speaks very extensively on this. What magic bullet do you propose that will fix capitalism this time?
Eliminate crony capitalism? For how long? Greed will always ensure any laws restricting it get rescinded. Glass-Steagal came, and it went. Boom then bust. Capitalism will always evolve like this. Professor Richard Wolff speaks very extensively on this. What magic bullet do you propose that will fix capitalism this time?
How many years, and what resources will it take, for the West to reindustrialize when they have dropped down so much already and are getting rid of what is left? What about the metals etc they need, which are available mostly in Russia and its allies? Keep reading the MSM and keep your fantasies.
Generations of industrial policy. The schools that taught how to manufacture to train machinists and engineers have all been downsized as there have been no jobs for decades – the teachers are retired and the machine tools sold for scrap (How I created my machine shop). Same story for the mining departments and geology (petroleum) departments. The Chem Eng where I used to work is all biotech, and the actual chem engineering professors are all retired to dead of old age.
Politicians and those that repeat slogans pretend that an industrial base that took 30 years to dismantle can appear as easily as the Fed can print another trillion (or twenty trillion) to give to Blackrock to continue the dismantling.
Too much Hollywood and too American to think there is a simple quick fix.
Do you just enjoy looking stupid? You have your head so far up the US and NATO rear end that your comments are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Accusing us of being Russian fanboys? We are simply realists that are sick of US and NATO lies and Liars. I’m a midwestern USA citizen but enough is enough and I’ve had it with your stupidity.
Then do something. Relying on Russia or China to save you is not a winning formula. They will do what is best for them, as well they should, not what is best for you/us. You want freedom? Then earn it! Right here at home.
Not possible – western human capital has been steadily eroded since mass turd world immigration, which precludes the kind of re-industrialization we are talking about. West is done. Stick a fork in it. Eventually, there will be White ethnostates emerging from the rubble. But that will take a while. The sooner Putin nukes us all the sooner we can start rebuilding.
“””Our side has no cards and should just fold, walk away from the table and set about seriously fixing things at home. Whether Russia moves fast or slow, we end up there. More pain for us longer if they move slow. I suspect they know that.”””
Bingo. Russia did exactly that (Soviet Union). It was not pretty and its citizens were poor already and not entitled. What would that look like in USA? Scared to think of it. “Don’t you dare tell me I have to give up the iPhone!!!”.
Today I listened to the predictions of astrologer Dmitry Sinko (he is from Latvia) for the 23rd year – a very difficult and anxious year. Russia will be destroyed in every possible way – so that Russia will never be able to rise again. The year of man-made and natural disasters. Cool provocations. Seas of blood.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qV7-T1gwqJ4
I have outlined the main points – periods:
1. From March 7th to March 28th.
It is possible to use chemical or biological weapons, which Russia will be accused of, of course.Perhaps a man-made disaster related to water.
2. From March 30 to April 9.
Very serious statements (ultimatums) will be made from both sides.
3. From April 12 to April 20.
A lot of blood, a lot of suffering.
4. From May 7 to June 14.
Expansion of the geographical field of conflict. Ukraine’s neighboring countries may be involved.
5. From June 14 to the end of July.
The use of nuclear weapons is possible.
6. From September 16 to September 25.
A window of opportunity for a favorable outcome.
7. All of October. From October to November.
Escalation of the war. Again, the possibility of using nuclear weapons.
Those who initiate these processes and who manage them are “rusty cynics” who do not believe in God. They don’t spare their citizens either. They will reduce the population of the Earth. The war will last until the 26th year.
In the Cabal, there is the concept of an “Antichrist contest” – a struggle for sole power. Planetary elites will undergo a shake-up. In the end, one person will rule, who is still waiting. (The appearance of the Antichrist??).
The biggest trouble on the planet is that the West calmly accepts the possibility of a nuclear war.
Putin. A very serious hunt is going on for him. The period of greatest risk to Putin’s life is from the beginning of April.
I don’t really believe in astrologers. And you?
As Fred Nietzsche said. The world is beautiful, but has a disease called man. Between Ukraine and that savagery of the Memphis police department? I think this world is ready for the cleansing nuclear fire. Just let me get to Bangkok and pick up a STD or three first.
You’re calling black people, savages? Looks like we’ve got ourselves a racist here, boys. LMAO
I would wager there is a larger chance of contracting STDs from a skank in the “west” than in Thailand.
I put more stock in Nostradamus
“The antichrist very soon annihilates the three. Twenty-seven years his war will last. The unbelievers are dead, captive, exiled. With blood, human bodies, water and red hail covering the earth.”
The Irlmaier prophecies are pretty interesting too
https://clarissaschnabel.wordpress.com/tag/alois-irlmaier/
As someone who has researched (part time) European prophets for forty years, I must say that MSM too often allows individuals to provide their own interpretations for popular media entertainment, for scare mongering on certain prophecies, or for people to write books about them to earn money, and in nearly all cases incorrectly or outright misleading.
No one has yet correctly interpreted Nostradamus in full context, despite all the claims of many having done so. Too often people place an event to a Quatrain to suit their particular narrative of the day, often in isolation of a broader meaning yet to be fully understood.
However, if you want relevant prophecies from more recent times (19th/20th century) I suggest for starters these, who refer specifically to the events leading to and including the upcoming European major war (original German text before interference is best):
Alois Irlamier (d 1959)
Erna Stieglitz (d 1965)
Seer of Waldviertel ( still living today(?) but was always reclusive) best reference when he provided his visions to Wolfgang Johannes Bekh for future reference, he is also known to some as The Farmer of Krems.
One special note about the last seer, he saw the destruction of NYC and the 9-11 attacks occurred not long after his visions were provided to Wolfgang, immediately Wolfgang contacted him to ask was this event you saw in your vision? No was his answer, the main event is still to come and he clearly describes how it will occur at a later time.
We still have more time before the major events really unfold, could be this decade or maybe event the next. There will be significant milestones unfolding in front of you to provide plenty of warning. In their visions things do not end well for either side due to a combination of economic woes, major war, earth changes, revolutions, civil unrest and more..
Most people dismiss these people, but in Alois’ case he did a lot of good ‘consoling’ work to families in his community during WW2 using his ‘gift of vision’, something he himself wished he never possessed.
I wrote in my book “End Game: The Coming Geopolitical Realignments”, published in 2015. You can read the book to get a better understanding of what is happening and the end result. In a nutshell the following will happen:
1. Russia will prevail in this struggle with Ukraine;
2. The collective West will be defeated;
3. Europe will bifurcate with Germany/France and the eastern part forming the core Euroland and the peripheral Europe (likely include, Greec, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, UK and Scandanavia) will form a North Atlantic Union with USA, Canada and possibly Mexico;
4. Russia will gravitate to the east forming the EurAsian Union under the aegis of the SCO, BRICS+ and EAEU;
5. There is a possibility that the Euroland will align with EurAsian Union for its own survival and access to raw materials.
We are certainly entering a multi-polar world.
One other tidbit of info that I think people need to know is that since George Washington to Joe Biden, all US Presidents were born and buried under different flags. Obama is the ONLY president born under the current flag! Before he dies USA must emerge into a different entity with a different flag. So watch either the break up of USA (high possible) or its emergence into a supra-national entity – the North Atlantic Union (as I described above).
Exciting times ahead!
Sorry, finally, I don’t believe astrology!
It is reported that Ukraine is storing missiles in the basements of nuclear power plants.
No room for accidents.
I’m of the opinion, that the astrologer has to be an educator,
leading people to arive at own conclusions, and not a magician
shocking people with his projections.
Hence I do my reading in weekly bits.
In the question of ‘big arrow’ I have no cannot have any certain
answer. I only know, that a serious cold is approaching Ukraine
for a seemingly sustained period, and that with Febr. 11. Mercury
moves into Aquarius, hence being at disposal for the uprooter
Uranus within the borders of the realm of the enemy of mankind.
It’s a high quality of life, to watch the strategic maturity of the RF-
GS in front of the background of the passing archetypes.
And this weekend provides ‘harvest-time’ for the center, the buds
of coming rule, the balance and the pusher.
https://astromundanediary.blogspot.com/2023/02/mankind-in-motherly-contraction.html
The Russian approach is not new. In the Spanish civil war, Franco attacked here and there, sometimes retreated, and let Madrid live on. That prolonged the war with a couple of years. Many thought that just being bad tactics, since the Republicans were in a weaker position. Well, Franco explained it some time later. There was no point in taking Madrid, oblige the Republican government to resign, and then stay with a lot of opponents sabotaging what it should be the new Spain. Better go slowly, systematically get rid of the republican army, and then get it over for good. It worked, no doubt. The Americans do the exact opposite: they destroy everything, like in Irak, declare victory, and then, 10 or 20 years later, like in Afghanistan, they have to go home a few billions dollars poorer.
Make a moderate push here, there, everywhere. Kiev command must decide whether to counter those (and move forces to attack) while Russian ISR gets a more and more accurate picture what mover from where to where and some of it gets Kalibr-ated…
Its not fun to be on the receiving end.
And day by day, UA’s (and the West’s) bargaining position gets from bad to worse. Every day, fex. Hungary receives between 10 and 15 thousand refugees (about half of them arriving thru Romania, but nevertheless from UA) about 3 times of that arrives to Poland and Slovakia.
Who will remain in Ukraine?
Wow, so the BBC and Daily Mail are wrong when they tell us that the Heroic Z-Man isn’t already rolling his Panzers through the Crimea and on to the gates of Moscow?
I wonder how the public of the West will take it when this is over and Vlad still hasn’t nuked them … assuming their own leaders don’t go nuclear first.
I was watching a documentary on the battle for Okinawa during WW2. In that one battle spanning 6 or 8 weeks, 45k+ Americans became casualties. In a single fight in that battle, the US arrayed 360 guns and expended 15,000 rounds of artillery ammo (in a battle space measuring a few KM) in a few hours in preparation for a tank/infantry assault.
We are constantly told how intense the fighting is in Ukraine, but I read that the Russians expend 20-30k rounds of artillery per day along the entire 1000 KM front.
I don’t draw any conclusions from these facts. It just goes into the mix of trying to figure out what is going on. I’m sure for the troops on both sides the fighting is plenty intense. But in another way, the fighting seems somewhat undefined and random.
All war boils down into many small unit actions, this one more than most (it seems).
The Russians fired half a million rounds of tube and rocket artillery in 30 min at the Germans Seelow heights….9000 guns eleven feet apart. Russian guns firing 50,000 rounds a day would make Okinawa pale….
My father fought on Okinawa and was wounded in action there. He described a hell on earth. The Japs also fired huge concentrations of artillery. Estimates are that between 80,000 and 120,000 Okinawan civilians were killed in the crossfires. Something like 80,000 Jap troops were wiped out (the Japs only extremely rarely surrendered and US troops often didn’t take prisoners even if the Japs tried to give up). There were also US naval gun fires and Kamikazes hitting US ships in response – this was day in and day out for eight weeks, on a fairly small island, with almost all fighting on only the southern half. I’m pretty sure nothing in Ukraine resembles the continual, concentrated, carnage of Okinawa. Then again, few battles have.
I would think that for Leopard and Abrams Tanks to be deployed to country 404 in anything less than 6 Months for Training and Logistics Buildup will indicate that they are being Crewed by German and U.S. soldiers.
Something that I have not seen discussed by any of the Armchair Generals is the Political Impact, in Russia, of Reichsarmee Panzers rolling East in the Borderlands – the ‘Go Slow’ strategy may well go Out the Window in the face of Public Demand for the Hammer to Fall.
Unlike ‘Americans’, Russians are very much aware of their National History, and how Russia has been Invaded by pretty much Every Country in Europe, several Times. With the Annexation (by Popular Vote) of the four Eastern Oblasts (Counties) to be part of Russia proper, the Stavka and the Politicians will be Obligated by the Russian Constitution to Go to War, with the Objective of Destroying the Invaders.
Unfortunately, the zionist neocons who control the FUSSA don’t Care at All if the CONUS comes under Attack, they have No Loyalty to any Nation, only their “Tribe”.
I think what most people don’t consider when discussing these moves to provide western tanks and/or jets in saying that “the time it will take to train Ukies…” is that the decision(s) were probably made months ago to do this and most likely the crews to man these systems have ALREADY been trained or are in the final stages thereof. Maybe that is what the British have been training the Ukrainians on, as opposed to the announced purpose of “Basic Training”. That is why these actions are being announced now. Hell, the weapon systems might already be in Ukraine and ready to deploy…or are deployed. From a counter-intelligence and strategic perspective, that makes good sense. You never want to provide your enemy with time to recover the tactical initiative. It’s also likely the Russians are aware of this and may be part of the reason for these advances all along the LOC and the missile attack campaign of the last 10 days or so. They have deployed T-90s in greater numbers in the last 2 weeks, maybe to provide tactical counter-balance to the Leopards, Challengers, Bradleys, Leclercs, and Abrams. Brian Bertelić @ New Atlas did an interesting interview with a Russian military officer this week looking into the Russian Battalion Combat Team structure and how it can change on the fly to deal with this new battlefield reality.
No one knows
what it will take for the emotive West to back down and admit they are defeated. Based on the hysteria coming from Poland, the Baltics, Germany, and many other weak Euopean nations, maybe it is better for mankind to have Russia occupy these countries again as they weren’t threatening nuclear war and Armageddon while they were part of the Warsaw Pact. What has become obvious is these countries have become more belligerent and dangerous under the “protection of the USA.
It seems that the winter offensive that Col. Macgregor predicted is happening right now. The Russians are giving up NO ground as they previously did. They are taking it to the Ukrainians with the proverbial double barrels. I have seen videos with T-90s in the battlefield which indicates that mobilized troops are having at it. I imagine at a certain point the offensive will go Big Arrow toward Odessa once the eastern Ukrainian forces have been destroyed.
The only question is: What does the Russian military know about the NATO strategy? Do they have a well working espionage?
If the NATO can hide its strategy or just its next move, how can Russia prepare?
Furthermore: Russia wouldn’t win in the long run when the Ukraine was defeated, but the whole of her border is staffed with missiles from the NATO.
And this is what will happen when Ukraine fails.
So, Russia needs two victories.
Aside from “Wearing down the Russkies,” do you really think NATO has a strategy?
NATO is probably war-gaming it thinking they can roll right up to the Ukie-Russkie border and think that will be the beginning of a 70-year stalemate, like North Korea, forgetting that they’re well past the bright red line drawn for them nearl two decades ago.
I was watching a video where a UkroNazi tank wrench was talking about frequent relocation of the repair facility. Because “collaborators” kept releasing their location. Ukraine is a civil war. And everyone has a smart phone. So, your comment about espionage raises an interesting point about the new face of that. And as to NATO’s intentions? Russia has been infiltrating NATO and Western powers for decades. I would be very surprised if Russia is very surprised about anything. Just like the “recent” decision to send Leopards. German squarehead protestations to the side, this decision was made months ago. UkroNazi’s have already been trained on them. Which ties into the Russia building assets, but not blindly throwing them in. “The lady doth protest too much” is my summation of all sides of this conflict.
It seems that the dribbling of the weapons to Ukraine is deliberate. That NATO, and the Russians wants this to drag out a certain amount. NATO is prepping their citizens for ww3 by entering slowly just like Russia had to bring their citizens to level of anger before they could escalate by taking Ukraine’s infrastructure and mobilizing. That said, I now think the equipment and weapons left in Afghanistan was for 3 reasons, and to ensure that Ukraine would NOT get them was a primary one – it would have increased the pace of the war too quickly – before they could get the US citizens all worked up for war and ready to die to defeat the evil “insert group name here”.
(do they have 2 goals? Is wrecking Ukraine one of them?), and Russia knows they weaken the west slowly is better than
The military weakness of Poland and Germany compared to Russia is what Russia can exploit.
Germany knows that their 250 operational tanks can’t stop an invading Russian army. Poland can’t stop a Russian invasion either. Germany has known for decades that Russia would prefer trade with Germany to war with Germany, thus the weak German military.
Strategic ambiguity is what might work for Russia. Taking 10,000 tanks out of storage in Russia, mobilizing 1 million men, and deploying them on the Ukraine-Poland border (Ukraine couldn’t stop this) would concentrate the minds of the Polish and German governments. This might force Germany and Poland to withdraw from NATO.
The alternative is tanks in Berlin, and the US couldn’t stop this. The mistake Germany has made is triggering the memory of German tanks in Russia – Germany is toast because of this. Every Russian I know lost relatives to German tanks, and wouldn’t mind destroying Germany (even though a German doctor saved the life of my wife’s grandmother in Stalingrad, and fences were mended because of the DDR).
BBC World Service reported, 28th Jan, that “the US Abrams will not be delivered for up to a year”!
Can that be serious?
To whom will they “be delivered”?
Why not just ship them directly to St Petersburg & Moscow tied with a nice ribbon?
Il faut plusieurs mois. Changer le blindage ( on est pas in Irak, La Russie est bien plus méchante) exigé plus de temps. Ou bien faire fabriquer de nouveaux au nombre de 31, et pareil cela exige plus de temps….
“So, Russia needs two victories.”
Sometimes, to win, the main thing is not to give up.
A good and acceptable deal was on the table 1 month into SMO. UK Boris brought the US message no deal.
Now NATO is so deep in it, the only option for Russian security is to destroy NATO in Europe.
Unless US, in the face of NATO defeat, will offer a new deal.
This must be supervised by the UN, accepted by the Security Councel and have neutral and independant guarantors, like Brasil, India to make sure it will not be another Minsk deception.
To understand Russians, it’s interesting to understand their culture:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2O65IalcoTM (Golden Dawn)
There’s an underlying military presence in this video, somewhat subtle. It’s from 11 years ago, so has nothing to do with the conflict in Ukraine. It shows a grandfather loving his grandson, a grandmother loving her granddaughter, a beautiful wife having children, people working productively in the community, the importance of the Russian Orthodox church in a village. But war is ever-present.
More ominous:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zMj5qD0sJ6Q
(In case you don’t understand Russian, it shows the ghost of a soldier from WW-II meeting a man from the DPR militia – shaking hands).
Nothing, even nuclear war, will stop Russia from winning this conflict. Economics and sanctions are irrelevant, no price to pay is too high.
I’m starting to think, but don’t want to, the big mobilization is largely based on a Russian assumption NATO is going to enter the war overtly. Unfortunately I can’t disagree with that assessment when I look at the delusional war mongers in decision-making positions in our countries. I agree the mobilized Russian reserve forces might be used to exploit a break in Ukranian lines, perhaps even the ‘big arrow’ drives many have predicted. Who really knows? But in any case, that will also be decision time for a last-ditch NATO ‘coalition of the willing’ gambit.
I hear you. And I agree.
But I’m not sure if time is strictly on Russia’s side. The Ukrainians are innovative and the more time they get the more evil they can come up with. They sent one of these drones from the 1970s into the Engels air base. What if they load some of them up with a little dynamite and a nice pile of nuclear waste from one of their nuclear plants? Maybe put on a transponder so they can be mistaken for a plane. How close to Moscow can they get with these dirty bombs? Sure, it won’t change the outcome of the war, but…
In an active war, time is on no one’s side. There’s death and destruction on both sides. And Putin said he wanted to end this quickly. It’s not only a question of opposition at home. My impression of Putin is that he is genuinely concerned about Russian lives.
So I both think and hope we’ll see some big Russian movements or a broad Ukrainian collapse asap.
Putin is also genuinely concerned about Ukrainian lives; he has said many times that he considers Ukrainians as fellow Slavs.
And the West has forced him to sign the death warrants of hundreds of thousands of those fellow Slavs, something I don’t think he will be in a mood to forgive.
And the non-Slavic countries on his borders might want to consider that he has no such feelings for them…..
I, of course, agree. In an active war, time is on no one’s side. You finish the war as fast as possible.
As an aside, I was a competitive martial artist many years ago and am now a boxer training for fighting in the “masters” amateur league (nice way of saying “old guys”). Sometimes you wait for your opponent to come to you, but sometimes you need to attack first. Regardless, once contact has been made, you stick to the opponent and try to finish him. The passive martial artist or boxer will lose. I 100% guarantee it. Too much Saturday morning kung fu theater philosophy and not enough practical experience in those making comments. A fighter with superior skill will lose to the inferior fighter if he doesn’t take the initiative and pummel his opponent.
Similarly, a company commander that just keeps his men on the FOB and doesn’t patrol, set up listening posts, etc, waiting for the enemy to try to attack his defenses, will be mortared and shelled and probed until the enemy finds a way inside the wire, even if the company commander has better trained troops, better weapons, etc.
The regimental commander that doesn’t aggressively go out and kill massed enemy forces in his AO and intercept their supply lines, will suffer the same fate as the company commander (above) on a larger scale. This is military science 101 and I don’t see how people are seriously making arguments that there is another way to do it.
That’s all I know for sure about contact fighting.
“A fighter with superior skill will lose to the inferior fighter if he doesn’t take the initiative and pummel his opponent.”
Tell that to Muhammed Ali and George Foreman (respectively).
The history of warfare tells the same tale. Good strategy beats good tactics (unless Lady Luck intervenes).
Ali was very lucky he got away with his rope a dope strategy. He could have been knocked flat at any moment. He only adopted that approach because his opponent was actually stronger.
So you are making my point for me. The longer you rope a dope, the more risk that you become the dope – and it’s something that only a weaker player does. It is not the way normally fight.
“So you are making my point for me.”
In the sentence I quoted, I understood the word “inferior” to mean “less skilled”. In this case, Ali and Foreman respectively. If you actually meant something else, I’m hard-pressed to know what it is.
“He could have been knocked flat at any moment. I disagree. Foreman rocked Ali hard a number of times. Ali had gauged Foreman’s power by the 2nd round when he abandoned his original “battle plan” and committed to the rope-a-dope strategy, much to his corner’s horror. He ignored them, saying “I know what I’m doing”.
“The longer you rope a dope, the more risk that you become the dope…”
The history of warfare shows the opposite. Probably the two most famous cases are Fabius Maximus’ eviction of Hannibal from Italy and Nguyên Giáp’s eviction of the USM. Neither won a battle, but both won their wars by rope-a-doping less skilled power punchers.
have you ever read ezekiel 38 and ezekiel 39 of the old testament
Any observer of Americas wars realizes that the best way to defeat America is to let America defeat itself. The american public while generally supportive of the military does not have much patience with wars. If it feels like nothing is happening or America is losing, they turn on the effort quickly Generally one political party or the other will also turn on the war effort. Usually its the Democrats but its the other side leading the way this time. The Dems will quickly follow though once the public opinion polls change. And this is why the constant stream of BS from the the administration and the neocons. They know once public opinion turns, they are done. And turning it is.
Hindsight is 20/20….. NATO expected a prolonged war of attrition after Russian forces steamrolled the Ukrainian army…hence the training was small unit counter insurgency/insurgency and stockpiling of man portable SRAAW and MANPADS. Then when things became apperent…then all the NATO armour boarded ships and sailed for Europe. NATO would not stockpile so much resources in Poland Romania Latvia and where ever else and not intend to use it..massive U.S concentration… probably 5 armoured divisions alone without the reported units. NATO is escalating as it’s prepositioning of logistics grow. The stream of Western military equipment east is explained by donations to Ukraine but the the numbers do not add up…this is mobilization for war.This plan A will be a one off thing…I believe to seize as much of Ukraine as possible before Russia takes their proxy….a north south partition thing..or west and East in this case..the Western public is not ready for a mobilization…nor the stomach for this type of industrial peer to peer fighting. Plan B will be nuclear weapons. I actually believe that the wild card is China…I believe the Globalists and communist government have the same goals…. China gets living space in the west. Anyways… Russia can only deal with a two front war with nuclear strikes unfortunately for us. So nukes it is….
From the armchair: In order to understand one’s opposite, understand their viewpoint. If one takes the long time symbol of Russia, the two eagles, one ooking east and one, west, and imaginatively turns the birds ,so one is looking north and the other south, such that in their field of view one eagle’s perspective encompasses the northern hemisphere and the other the southern hemisphere, at 55ª N and 37ª E – the main focus becomes north and south with an eye on both east and west. Using this as an analogy, what does Russia see?
Movement towards the Arctic, movement towards Iran & Africa; friendly movements towards China and India, nothing but hositility coming from the west. So what will Russia do? It will obviously guard itself from attacks from the ‘west’. How does this translate to future actions in the Ukraine? IMO, Russia would seek to give the ‘west’ what it wants – endless war but not MAD, i.e. let the west come to Russia, but not the other way around – a martial arts move par excellance – to turn the opponents aggression against the opponent.” How does this appear on the ground? Russia will seek to keep their ‘opposition’ off balance by continuously pursuing a line of defense towards the Dnieper and beyond, i.e. neither a stalement or a defined resolution, no disengagement, but relentless movement. ( In chess, the threat of checkmate is worse than checkmate.”). The exact events on the battlefield, who knows. More like soccer than American football.
So — in short, more of the same?
Epiphany: My 30+ years in the US Army has actually hampered my ability to accurately assess and predict what Russia will do…I think too “western” and through the lens of US Military strategy e.g. first gain Air and Naval superiority then send in ground forces. For me it’s time to break out the Magic 8 Ball and Ouija Board for guidance.
It may be helpful to fall back on the tried and true (and much loathed) Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) especially in terms of “facts and assumptions” which aid situation assessment.
For example…
Fact: All parties to the SMO are escalating.
Assumption: Time is on Russia’s side.
Fact: Russia has achieved recent “victories” in Soledar and nearby battle spaces.
Assumption: Russia will mount a “big arrow” offensive soon.
Fact: The Ukraine is suffering high battlefield casualties.
Assumption: NATO or a coalition of willing NATO members will commit forces to directly confront (fight) Russian forces in the Ukraine.
IMO, absent a game changing event the SMO is really hard to assess more than 72 hours out…all else is assumption.
Excellent commentary Helmholtz!
Here’s some relevant precedent…. Russian scale of effort in manpower….losses and logistics can be appreciated from the second world war….80% nearly of the German army was destroyed on the Eastern Front….twenty something million Russian deaths and the last push it Berlin entailed 9000 artillery pieces eleven feet apart for nearly 29 miles firing a half million rounds in thirty minutes. We in the West cannot fathom this
Joe…have you ever heard the phrase “American steel, British pluck and Russian blood won WWII”? The first time I heard that was in the US Army Command and General Staff College. American history does a poor job of crediting the Russian (Soviet) Army with its WWII sacrifices and victories…truly Hitler destroyed German Armies in Russia.
Well America is no longer a nation of “steel”–our manufacturing capabilities are a shadow of the “Arsenal of Democracy” days; and British “pluck” has been replaced with woke ideology and immigrants. The Russians however have remained true to their National identity and love for their “motherland”…they will fight fiercely to protect it and that is why they will prevail.
Well said.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/video-saturday-morning-leopard-tanks-and-marder-infantry-fighting-vehicles-already-entering-poland
So…some better quality western tanks show up. They get ground down by RU. Who controls the air theater? If Poland hosts F-16s or similar…they have entered the war, and are now legitimate targets of RR. This is beyond the fact that the F-16 platform will be found lacking per pilots and higher function platforms from RU. If Poland enters the war…does not Belarus?
If back up comes for Poland from England…are they not legitimate targets also?
As Col. Macgregor has stated, Russia moves with a total umbrella over their troops. If the West uses F-16s, those would be facing certain death. But, the western leaders are fools and fools rush in where angels fear to tread.
Putin stated that at the end of this war, Ukraine (as we know it) will no longer exist, he also said Ukraine is not a country (Nation State). Sooner or later the balkanisation of Ukraine will happen … as it did elsewhere in Eastern Europe, … that’s just the way it goes with ultranationalists in power.
IMHO, all the actors involved in this conflict know what the End Game is. No turning back, a wind of change is blowing on Ukraine.
You wrote: “Slowly, slowly, the Russians advance over mountains of Ukrainian bodies.” This is what we in the degenerate West and the blind Fools up on Capitol Hill have done: basically, against the wishes of true conservative Americans, they have financed the ongoing, continuous SLAUGHTER of the Ukrainian people. (Meanwhile, our country is being invaded by masses of criminal illegal alien parasites.) If these Liberal Lunatics had one once of compassion and common sense, they’d sue for peace and take whatever deal they can get; they’d try to STOP the carnage. Right now, this Saturday evening, here on the east coast, the fat cat, fat slob politicians in D.C. are probably hobnobbing at cocktail parties, drinking Scotch, and eating steaks. America’s so-called political “leaders” have seldom been more contemptible than the way they have treated the Ukrainian people. Every move they make, and every dollar they spend, just makes the destruction more complete, more irreversible, more contemptible. Much of the hatred generated against Vladimir Putin and the Russians came from the delusional, hate-filled traitors over at CNN. The really sad thing is, even relatively good Republicans like Ted Cruz foolishly took the bait. To a lesser extent, so did President Trump, who had no business shipping weapons to Ukraine. Every so-called “Republican” who continues to finance and support this ongoing slaughter should rightly be branded a Fool. Today’s “Democrats”? They’ve ALL been certifiably insane for decades. No point trying to reason with them; all of them have passed the point of no return. Based upon what we saw when Zelensky came to town, mindless, heartless clapping seals is the apt characterization for the whole lot of them. May the Good Lord have mercy on the Ukrainian people.
I agree with you 100%. Oleksiy must have been about 20 when he saved the world from Chernobyl. Now those he saved gamble with nuclear war and DU to ruin his new lungs and his son’s future.
https://t.me/mozofficial/3281
Ministry of Health of Ukraine
A unique lung transplant from a posthumous donor was performed in Lviv! This is the second such operation in Ukraine and the first one that our doctors performed independently without the help of foreign colleagues!
The operation lasted 16 hours!
Oleksiy Chernyshkov from Kyiv received the lungs. He is 56 years old. He is a liquidator of the Chernobyl accident. He had total bullous emphysema – he could barely walk 30 meters on his own. He is raising an 11-year-old son on his own. He decided to undergo surgery so that his boy could have a father.
Now he is breathing on his own and feels great!
🙏 The donor was a 54-year-old man who died as a result of a stroke. His family agreed to donate his organs to save his life. This decision allowed us to save not only Oleksiy, but FIVE lives! In addition to the lungs, doctors were able to transplant the heart, liver and kidneys! All operations were successful!
May the donor’s memory be blessed. We are grateful to the family for their decision!
🦸 The historic operation was performed by the team of the First Medical Association of Lviv, headed by cardiac surgeons Roman Domashych and Ihor Humennyi.
Translated with http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
I suspect when it reaches the point that Russia has what it wants and the West (US) is certain it will be humiliated shortly there will be a “change of leadership” in Kiev and a “moderate” president and cabinet will take charge and arrange a security agreement (partition) of Ukraine with NATO (Poles) assigned the majority task. Some boarder will be drawn with the Russians and another (empty) promise of no militarization of the partitions will be offered to avoid or end the humiliation to the West. NATO (Poland) will take the tanks, the manpower they have been training and what is left of the other equipment and police the Ukrainian partition that Russia didn’t want.
Bingo/Bango, the west didn’t lose but as the only real “humanitarians” in the world, chose to end the suffering.
It’s a hybrid war. This year Putin will introduce a Moscow Precious Metals Exchange that will price gold according to physical delivery. Also this year, Russian commodities will be sold on the blockchain. Also this year, Saudi Arabia will sell oil for gold-backed yuan. War is politics by other means. Western Empire is collapsing financially. It cannot afford to occupy western Ukraine indefinitely. It cannot afford to fund Ukraine indefinitely. It cannot afford domestic unrest indefinitely. The strategy to defeat western empire is an economic strategy. The military component is more about containment. Russia is just building a cage for empire to starve in. The big question is if empire will take the world down with it in Armageddon. But that’s what the Extraterrestrials came to prevent
It is a hybrid war. The west, starting with the Greenspan put years ago began the financial Ponzi scheme that is now starting to unwind. I am sure Russia, China and others know the obvious – you can’t taper a Ponzi scheme, and that is what the Fed is now attempting to do. It all unravels if it doesn’t keep growing exponentially. This is actually the key weakness, the hot war being mostly a distraction that drains resources, forces up debts with rising interest rates, and misallocates valuable resources needed by the general economy.
You are right – the west cannot afford all this. At current rates, when the short term debt rolls over, a third of the US budget will be debt servicing. Putin must know this and that a drawn out war favors Russia as it is self-sufficient. Without China, the US runs out of phones, TV’s, washing machines, power tools and a whole raft of things. They’re trying to bluff with what everybody knows is a losing hand.
past behavior is not a guaranty of future behavior but it does offer a window into the thought process of those who decide.
in feb 2022 zelinksy barked about how ukraine ought to obtain atomic weapons. russia invaded within a few days of that public declaration therefore if history rhymes perhaps russia is content to de militarize kiev and nato as it is now doing while swiftly annihilating whatever the pentagon deigns to send and allow time to hollow out the west…. UNLESS….. washington decides to do something epic and stupid….. thinking tactical atomic weapons can actually be used without starting an atomic war.
should russia conclude washington/nato has decided tactical nukes or bio weapons are acceptable then imo russia will act ””preemptively”” with swift sledge hammer force. i suspect russian intel knows exactly what and when the pentagon and nato are planning to do and they will know in moscow within minutes or hours as soon as a decision is made in the west if ever to use tactical atomic weapons
as long as the west keeps thing conventional russia has no reason to help the west out of it suicidal machinations. each day that passes shifts more of the worlds people, nations and governments into russia’s corner and away from the incompetent maniacs in washington.
from the kremlins perspective why interfere with your enemy as he actively wrecks his own country
The US/NATO do not want de-escalation. All indications are the US/NATO are moving for a larger war.
https://abeldanger.blogspot.com/2023/01/usnato-do-not-want-de-escalation.html
Excellent writeup.
Western Shock and Awe works only when the opposing leadership is weak willed, poor and poorly organized. Against a cohesive and determined people, it fails as Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria (and others) have shown.
The Russian style of warfare is different. When this ends, every surviving Ukrainian fighting for Kiev will know down to their bones that they lost. There will be no excuses: hundreds of billions, thousands of armored platforms and planes and artillery, etc etc. Literally the entire West’s inventory is going to be destroyed, along with the West’s standard of living. No Monday Morning quarterbacks or armchair generals will be able to spin this.
The final outcome is already clear: the West is going to declare victory and run home.
Very good article!
However, I may disagree on one aspect — HS said:
…start the “big arrow” move to bring it to an end before NATO does something irretrievably stupid…
This outlook may be regarded by Kremlin a bit differently — NATO, well, rather the US of A, may do “something irretrievably stupid” if this “big arrow” happens and, besides utmost military conquest traps countless of weapons, ammunition and mercenaries. To lose this spectacularly is one thing, but to lose and be on the brink of economic collapse is another — how many “entrepreneurs” have jumped from Chicago towers during the 30’s depression — that what is coming now would guarantee many times more, so why not to suicide the whole world instead? Aka the favored first strike…
Cheers, JaKo
How crazy will NATO get?
I just saw this: NATO is ready for direct confrontation with Russia, said the head of the military committee of the alliance, Admiral Rob Bauer’
https://news.yahoo.com/top-nato-official-says-alliance-212040555.html
Actually, if you look at what Bauer said it’s much more idiotically delusional.
“Rob Bauer insists that NATO is prepared for a direct confrontation with Russia and admits that rearmament is the Alliance’s top priority. He also acknowledges that the organisation has lost its monopoly on military initiative.”
Dear Mr Putin.
Please hold on while we rearm and try and figure out how to get the initiative. Be patient, may take us a few years.
Gratefully yours.
NATO
All I know is I’m buying potassium iodide and building a bunker.
On January 27th, The World Health Organization (WHO) updated its list of medicines that should be stockpiled for radiological and nuclear emergencies.
““In radiation emergencies, people may be exposed to radiation at doses ranging from negligible to life-threatening. Governments need to make treatments available for those in need – fast,” said Dr Maria Neira, WHO Acting Assistant Director-General a.i, Healthier Populations Division”
Saw a Medvedev comment at the 20 year veteran aggregator that made me laugh…Kiev wouldn’t last a day without Western financial and equipment backing. It certainly wasn’t the sold out overrated Sludge report.
Got Proxy War?
I’ve said before this that while Russia has much less of a time problem than Ukranazistan and its NATO owners do, Russia isn’t free of time pressures either.
Why?
What did NATOstan expect in the beginning? Russia would occupy Ukranazistan in a week or two, following which NATO would foment an “insurgency” and use that and economic sanctions to beat Russia. Then it began giving drones, missiles, Soviet era planes, APCs, and tanks, then artillery, NATOstani regulars in the guise of “volunteers”, and now talking of giving Western tanks while declaring (in the shape of Annalena Baerbock and newspaper op eds) that NATO is at war with Russia.
In other words, NATO has not just painted itself into a corner, it is aggressively reducing the unpainted area of floor still around its feet. Not only can it not step back, there is not the slightest indication that it intends to.
So now from “Western tanks” we’ve gone to talking about providing F16s, and which in turn means that sooner or later not just F16s but other Western aircraft will by provided if the fighting goes on long enough. There is no reason to dismiss these as impossible to operate properly because the crew will have to be trained. What makes anyone think the crew aren’t trained in advance of the official announcement of the provision of weapons? What makes anyone think that the crew, as in the case of HIMARS, won’t simply be NATOstani regulars in Ukranazistani uniform?
When I bring up this point I’m usually informed that I’m missing the fact that no NATO regular would want to commit suicide for Ukranazistan. In the meantime as acknowledged by these same people Polandistani military cemeteries are running out of space and on the frontline more intercepted messages are in Polish, English or Georgian than in Russian/Ukrainian, with 70% or more “Ukranazistani” frontline troops now foreign “volunteers”. [This by the way is something I had warned would inevitably happen; I had warned this would happen back in 2019.] So where does this idea that NATOstanis aren’t going to be ready to die for Ukranazistan come from? It’s not as if NATOstani squaddies are immune to their own propaganda any more than the average Japanese soldier in WWII willing to die for the Emperor if it would postpone defeat by a single day, or the foreign Waffen SS volunteers (such as the Wiking division) fighting in Berlin in April 1945.
Meanwhile the enemy also gets a chance to build up and attack indirectly elsewhere; take a look at the failed drone attacks on Iran last night for what it could do. The longer this goes on the more the enemy gets a chance to mount indirect pressure, and don’t think this is something they’d hesitate to do. This isn’t even new. It was Reaganite policy in the early 1980s that should the USSR/its allies “threaten US interests” somewhere in the world, the American Empire would strike back at some other Soviet ally, even if there was no connection at all between the two.
So, Russia is at some point going to have to hurry up things. Grinding the nazis to death is all very fine if it were only the nazis, but NATO is now far beyond the point where it could retreat while saving face. It will continue to jump in further and further and the longer this goes on the more overt that jumping will be.
You remember how the American Empire first went into Vietnam? It said “we’re not there to fight, we’re there to free the (South) Vietnamese to fight.” Can you seriously discount the possibility of that happening again? Can you discount the Syrian model of NATO occupying all of Ukranazistan not currently under Russia either? With the withdrawal of Russian forces all along the northern frontier upto Kharkov, that would put NATO right on the Russian underbelly. Precisely what the SMO had been supposed to avoid in the first place.
I doubt that these facts are not on the minds of the Russian general staff. Whether the Russian government is politically prepared for the effort and casualties a major blitzkrieg offensive to end the war will entail is something else.
Even though there is no doubt that there are substantial numbers of mercenaries on the front lines, what do we know about the precise tactical ways in which they fight? The aftermath of the taking of Soledar did not seem to show a lot of killed non-Ukrainians while there were pictures showing heaps of dead Ukrainians. Could it be that mercenaries can engage in fighting in ways that still reduces the chance of them getting killed? If moving up to enemy positions to assault them incurs the highest losses, could mercenary deaths still be relatively few if they left this specific part of the fighting to the Ukrainians? Just wait for Wagner to assault your position in a trench or behind the thick concrete walls of a Soviet-era apartment building, fire off a few shots, then retreat as soons as you cannot hold your position any longer. Such a modus operandi would somewhat mute the point about Western fighters actually willing to sacrifice themselves.
Not all Westerners are made alike either. The Poles have more viable warrior culture left than the Germans and French. This makes Polish society more willing and able to contend with battlefield losses. Poland is rather homogenous, too, while the armies to the west of them have become mirror images of the societies they live in – lots of troopers of non-European origin in their ranks, and also increasing numbers of women (and even trans guys). These elements have not signed up out of a sense of national pride and a willingness to sacrifice themselves. It’s more and more a hodge podge of members of the underclasses and various misfits who sign up because they have little prospects elsewhere. If war is on the horizon, they tend to get out as fast they they got in. Especially for women it’s really easy – just get pregnant. NATO is currently able to spread the losses it incurs thin and wide save for Poland, which is a special case. That makes public perception manageable but would certainly change if whole NATO units got engaged, especially if mobilisation became necessary.
BISWAPRIYA PURKAYASTHA,
Exactly. You and I are of the same school of thought.
I think too many are too dismissive of NATOstan ability to make serious trouble for Russia in the ways you highlight and some others that neither of us have even thought of, yet.
Btw, The idea that Russia will merely laugh at F16s in the skies overhead and then shoot them down to the last one seems to me to be foolish big talk. Kind of like the crap world wrestling federation characters hurl at each other in the build up to a “smack down”. The Israelis have proven that F16s are somewhat immune to AD, even Russian supplied AD (see Syria).
Russia keeps the iron burning on the Nazi government of the USA and Ukraine, after the leopards, there will be the F-16, after this NATO will invade the Ukraine, then the iron will burn for a long time on the Nazi invaders.
NATO simply does not have the force level to invade on the ground. The time required to assemble such a force will create multiple opportunities for Russia to destroy those forces.
You’re making the wholly unwarranted assumption that those forces will be there to fight and defeat Russia rather than as human shields for the nazis just as in East Syria for the headchopper jihadis.
You are making the also unwarranted assumption that the Russian government will be politically prepared to go to war against NATO rather than tolerate it occupying almost all of what remains of Ukranazistan.
Trip wire.
Attack the NATO forces and the bombers fly and the missiles come raining down. A thousand + dead US troops would be a call to war for US citizens. Doesn’t matter if it makes sense or not.
Are there US politicians that would oppose such a deployment? Sure. Would their objections be shouted down if it’s Ukraine’s last hope? Yes, I think so.
Should also add that there is an assumption that Russia is not casualty adverse when all evidence strongly suggests that they are heavily casualty adverse, e.g. slow grind and allowing Wagner prisoners and Donbas militia to take the hits. 100,000 US/NATO troops in some kind of combined arms structure would definitely inflict heavy losses on Russian forces. Perhaps it’s not a big enough force to “win” in a conventional slug fest, but it’s enough to make Russia think twice. Especially if it is made clear that the forces are a trip wire to something much bigger. I predict with 95% probability that US/NATO troops will be holding positions in Ukraine – especially Odessa – before the summer is over. They will also be leading attacks at key points along the line of contact.
“What’s next?”
The potential shaping of the political battlefield by events on the kinetic battlefield is constrained by the lack of legitimate ruling classes in too many of the countries opposing the Russian Federation. Modern Ukraine, for example, neither has a ruling class nor has it ever had one. Ukraine has an administrative class who administer from Kiev, but they are not sovereign and thus do not rule. One can make good arguments for a number of different corporate, ethnic, and state actors (all non-Ukrainian, regardless of superficialities) who compete for rule over Ukraine.
All over the West power and sovereignty has been gradually surrendered to national and international institutions both corporate and governmental which are currently immune to the disapproval of the peoples that they govern. Ukraine is the globalist governance pattern carried to its inevitable end. They devolved to the end state quickly because when the Ukrainian Soviet Social Republic transitioned into modern Ukraine, they had no cohesive indigenous nationalist ruling class that had to be gradually coopted then politically castrated, as happened in the rest of the West.
The Russians can neither bargain a lasting peace with administrators nor can they force the rulers (who manage the administrators) to the negotiation table by inflicting conventional battlefield casualties. The Rus have two pathways through which to achieve success, defined as a lasting peace. Either they force the rulers (1) to the negotiation table by targeting them directly (an option clearly off the table until there is a general war) or they successfully degrade the ability of the rulers to maintain control over the administrators who govern their subject countries, leading to a resumption of exercisable national sovereignty (think Hungary) with whom they can potentially bargain.
Poland stands out as the one NATO belligerent which has the most sovereignty. However, their ruling class is relatively newly formed and highly inexperienced, in spite of their long national history. Their inability to discipline their cultural antipathy for Russia has allowed the globalists to use them for their own ends, if not skillfully then at least easily. (Didn’t they just surrender to the EU some long sought sovereignty over the Polish judiciary in exchange for a few billion fiat Euros?) Some public words about respect for Polish sovereignty would cost the Russians nothing since they have no intention of seeking to rule over Poland. (maybe they have already done this?)
(1) Who are these ‘rulers’? Power is the ability to persuade or coerce other people to do what you want. Who owns and/or controls the institutions governmental and private which exercise power? It is a convoluted tapestry of power relationships and good exercise for pattern recognition capabilities.
I find it amusing how the Western culture’s impatience of shock and awe is beginning to find many faults in Russia’s operational art as a completely different culture?! Just to satisfy its rush! As if 1 year to break the biggest country in Europe after Russia supported by the whole West was a long time. Russia is not looking for some impossible landslide victory that would only the relations with West in the future even more complicated. Russia since the 1st day of Ukraine that is looking for a surrender and peace negotiations like most wars end. Russia wants to de-escalate the conflict based on its December proposals that the West did not to hear and not escalate more the conflict. With a mobilization of 300,000 troops to reinforce a front with more than a thousand kms. And in this point, even several military analysts are doing the math wrong, thinking that the largest country in Europe is conquered with half a million troops.
Great post mr HS
It is obvious the media brouhaha of sending western tanks is just a cover of something that already exists in the SMO , that many of so called mercenaries are in fact veteran of NATO militaries or ‘sheep-dipped’ members of their military.
The news of ‘send in abrams and leopards’ is for western public consumption , which of all purposes a propaganda attempt directed to the western people. It is in preparation of NATO Overt escalation in the SMO.
we all in public domain have limited access to real information so we can only deduce by the action and by the result of the SMO. That US aka NATO constantly escalate indicate they are losing badly both in the SMO and in the world theatre.
But it is telling many usually reserved or hidden trolls suddenly dropped their mask of objectivity and now exposed their true ravenous troll face , like the so called ‘eric newhill’ ID which i think was used by many people instead of one. This ‘Eric Newhill’ ID behave exactly like the SST’s Col Patrick Lang in their blind praise and objection to all criticism of ‘the great american military’. And the obvious sock puppet account here who posted after eric newhill’s and praising it to the sky,.
SONAR21 already on the gunsight of PTB and there will be more troll sent here to ruin the discussion section.
“Everyone who isn’t in accord with the opinion expressed on a website is a troll.”
The standard Martyanov line.
Got it.
I have noticed with eric newdill there is a certain schizo element. Some posts seem hyper critical of Russia’s tactics and ‘hoorah’ the US is the greatest, and others seem more, well, sane and reality grounded.
I avoid reading anything from the self described “analyst” now due to past troll like posts.
No. Pat Lang and TTG are blatantly lying about everything in the most obvious, shameless and clumsy manner. I will not tell anyone Russia is losing or that the NATO wonder weapon of the week is going to change the outcome, like they do. Or dumb crap about Russians officers shooting enlisted men for fun or a dozen other insulting crazy propositions out their thick heads. Nor will I ever quote the ISW as a source remotely approaching truth, like they do.
I am merely critical of Russia’s approach because I think it will get us all in deep trouble. I wish Russia had gotten it right was capable of finishing this thing quickly. If they have the ability, I believe it is in their and everyone’s best interest that they do so. I believe that the US/NATO is acting crazy and will become more crazy given the opportunity and that Russia’s slow grind is providing that opportunity. That is definitely something you will never hear from Lang or the twisted Lithuanian deep state idiot.
I further think that Russia has feet of clay and screwed up in the initial phase. Guess what? They’re human like the rest of us. What else could they be? You can’t handle that? Russia themselves has said that mistakes were made. Furthermore, most likely the end result of this, if we don’t all die in a nuclear exchange, is that the US will re-industrialize. No one knows how to do industry like Americans. The last generation with that knowledge still has living active members. They’ll get it right. Then the US will be on top again. Sorry, you don’t like that, but that is reality. If the corrupt maniacs in charge currently won’t re-industrialize under a nationalistic banner, then we’ll have a damn revolution and kill them all and when the dust settles, we’ll go back to basics and re-industrialize and be better than Russia – and better than ant hive people Chinese. Because we are a free and vibrant people. How many bloody revolutions has China experienced in modern times? – just asking before you start rising your high horse down that road. Revolution s the natural human course, as history shows us. I believe that all people are the same accept for culture nuances. So revolution good for you? Good for me too.
I have always been consistently unashamed of being pro-capitalism and pro-America. It’s not new for me. I also think the US and Russia should be partners/allies. However, I am an American and I think we should hold the trump card. That is patriotism. Russians are not saints. They are as susceptible to the 7 deadly sins as anyone. In defense of my country I want us to be superior.
Maybe you are enamored with Martyanov, hence your problem with me. I am not. Perhaps it is my own failings (seriously) but when I listen to him my eyes start to cross and I begin to yawn, deeply. What comes through my ears is something like “Russia is so excellent, let me tell you why and in all the ways…blah blah blah….America so stupid….blah blah blah…Russia always wins because so excellent..blah blah blah ..(forgets big losses like Afghanistan, Cold War)…..America always loses because so stupid…blah blah blah…..forgets years of retarded murderous dismal socialism and falling apart of entire Soviet system, forgets he moved to America for a reason and on and on. ….now that I think of it, Maybe you ARE Martyanov.
If anyone is threat to this forum or any other true seeking endeavor, it is the communists, anarchists and Russian and Chinese moles that want the destruction of America to further their own ideology and countries’ interests. Why don’t you reveal yourselves for what you are and then we can have an open diplomatic discussion as opposed to a covert attack on America, leveraging malcontents and disenfranchised Americans who otherwise love the Constitution and ideals of their country.
Generally, a huge threat to humanity achieving some semblance of peace and prosperity (and dare I add such quaint notions as love and compassion) are people locked into black/white, all/nothing, no nuance mass ant hive thinking, replete with purity test passing grades necessary in order to offer an opinion. Ohhh. I criticized Russia a little. Now I’m a leprosy ridden witch that should banished and burned? Sounds more like commie thinking to me.
“..leveraging malcontents and disenfranchised Americans who otherwise love the Constitution and ideals of their country.”
Support the creation of middle class prosperity and private sector US jobs, and the leveraging power of other foreign entities will be diminished.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/household-financial-stability/the-demographics-of-wealth/decline-of-white-working-class
The Bigger They Are, The Harder They Fall: The Decline of the White Working Class
Demographics of Wealth, 2018 Series, Essay No. 3
Executive Summary
Yep. Bring back manufacturing and that graph will reverse and, as you say, communism and self-hate propagated by foreign entities will diminish and America will be strong again. The foreign entities will lose when they can no longer sell us inferior products and hold our economy hostage. That’s why they’re here, there, everywhere spewing their divisive messaging.
Love your optimism, but whatever happens we have one doozy of a task ahead of us. The mindjob that has been done on America since the 1960s stretches belief. Have you considered our public schools lately? Full-on indoctrination, dumbed down, many resemble prisons with different zones for different races (and the liberal teachers – who can’t lift a finger to impose discipline – pretending it’s all fine and dandy)…not producing any world-class engineers, scientists or military leaders, sorry!
I just don’t believe we’re capable of producing people of the caliber of McArthur, Teddy Roosevelt or Robert E. Lee. Or if we are, they either aren’t anywhere near the positions they should be in, or else they’re shooting up smack on a SF street.
We’re importing Third Worlders who have no care for – or outright hate – America and our culture. Our “hostile elite” (which Buchanan was right about, as always) has spent the last 30 years selling out our manufacturing base to Asia. Our military is basically a bloated parasite, a welfare program, full of time-servers scheming about how to snag the next benny. Future’s grim, dude.
That said, like you I just can’t shake my belief in the cussed, legendary American spirit. Case in point: Covid hysteria. I travelled around the West at the height of the pandemic panic, and outside the big cities/tourist traps full of “Americans”, LGBT and liberals, NOBODY was wearing masks, panicking, or basically giving a rat’s about Covid. And then these same Heartlanders resisted the “vaxx” en masse. So sure, we got a doozy of a task ahead of us, but with the right Heartland leadership…
All true, but there are still real Americans out there and we can – and will – rebuild
AMERICAN WAR TILL THE LAST UKRAINIAN UPDATE
Zaluzhny may have told the Pentagon there are 232,000 killed.
Stratfor – a mediocre CIA front – goes for 305,000 killed.
Chinese intel takes no prisoners: “irretrievable losses” exceed 500,000 and may have reached 680,000.
I think the Chinese exagerate a bit no?
source pepe escobar twitter account
Depends what irretrievable losses mean to the Chinese…..may be deaths and injured servicemen that are medically released…unfit for service
Mr Smith, given known facts you present very sound thinking.
Bill Payer above raises another important factor: kinship. In the long term every Ukrainian killed is a strategic loss to Russia, but in human terms this is a fratricidal tragedy. Unfortunately this is by design of the West; not that the elitists care one whit for human lives–perhaps not even their own–, but they know Russians do. There are no easy answers to this one.
There’s also a strict limit to how long this can go on, namely the looming breaking point of the Ukrainian Army. There’s a line of thinking that says industrial nations can continue to fight until their reserves of manpower are exhausted. Evidence suggests Ukraine is nearing this point. The moral collapse of Ukraine’s army, and likely Ukraine itself, is inevitable.
I have some unsolicited advice for Russia. I recommend Russia take on the task of graves registration and next-of-kin notification for fallen Ukrainians. Ukraine’s not going to be in any position to do it, and the West sure as hell won’t. Yeah, the nok teams will suffer deaths. For those with none left to notify, a memorial of names–even the Nazis (foreigners can take care of their own). “These died in the service of their country. It falls to us, their enemy, to honor them.” Or something similar. (Apologies to Kipling.)
When has Western media ever shown images of destroyed Western equipment in the Ukraine?
The sanctions were meant to destroy Europe and split it from Russia. They already knew the sanctions may not work in Russia. So the sanctions succeeded.
Countries like Vietnam and Kenya theoretically neutral have closed business and bank accounts to Russians. This opens markets to the west and pushes Russia completely out of some parts of the world.
Further similar sanctions on China will do the same the US believes.
Little attention is being paid to massive US and European presence on Africa etc demanding and getting road and rail contracts that would have gone to China. They are now outcompeting China is some areas.
So I disagree respectfully. The sanctions have hurt Russia and helped the US immensely.
The US doesn’t have a national road or rail business, so just DC grifters and corporations might benefit. We need new roads and rail projects here in the US.
FWIW, this is my take from a few days ago:
https://thecausalobserver.substack.com/p/ukraine-where-are-we-now
In short: There seems to be a window of opportunity where the Russian side can do what it has to do before more experienced troops with NATO weapons appear on the field. (Poles and possibly Romanians)
While I believe Russia would win either way, the cost in Russian lives is lower when they don’t wait for the Poles to show up in NATO equipment.
The Poles are already fighting in Ukraine and are being eliminated by Russia.
Poles are NOT battle tested…they will be wiped out like the rest of them.
Similarly, the untested Romanians will be wiped out in no time.
If the Poles enter the war theatre, then they do not have NATO Article 5 protection within Ukraine.
Re: Negotiations
There are negotiations like Vietnam: a clearly losing war despite enormous American effort concluded by a declaration of victory (South Vietnam peace and self sufficiency!).
Then there are negotiations a la Tacitus or the Mongols, translated to modern times: they made it a (weapons) desert and called it peace.
Russian generals know their classics; for this war they are led by the maxim of Caesar Augustus (63 BC-14 AD) :
σπεῦδε βραδέως > FESTINA LENTE > make haste slowly
and
ἀσφαλὴς γάρ ἐστ’ ἀμείνων ἢ θρασὺς στρατηλάτης > for it’s better (being) a steadfast commander than a bold one.
See: Suetonius’s Divus Augustus 25.4
The Russians seem to be playing this like strategic magicians. Whilst the official Western bodies and attendant commentariat have all been focused on the military big arrow moves, and designing counter-moves, the real big arrows have been happening economically. Like any mis-direction, the audience’s focus on the expected gives room for the magician to perform the planned moves, hence the appearance of ‘magic’ being performed.
Russia has moved quickly to consolidate the framework of a workable alternative economic system which will move in parallel to the Western model. The bifurcation of the world, based on economic, social and political expectations is the real big arrow and one that points to the heart of the organ-system that animated Post-War Western dominance.
Ironically, Russia is cementing into place a process which will replicate the success the West had over the Soviet regime, offering a philosophically different outlook with attendant material benefits. Any opposition to the West is intolerable, as it risks exposing the specious nature of the arguments that motivate the ‘elites’, and this insecurity is reflected in all the lesser echelons, explaining their perpetual desire for seeking conflict and the hysterical reaction upon finding it. Now that America has fallen, after decades of internal subversion and suppression of popular dissent, her power can be harnessed to the global reordering, not hinder it; therefore Russian represents the next existential threat to the build-back to techno-feudalism, envisaged by the Barons of Davos.
I do wonder why some people in the US are surprised at the nature of the reaction to Russia’s resistance to the Baron’s plans, after all it’s just an international replication of their approach to President Trump, who also offered resistance and an attractive alternative to the ‘paradise’ being prepared for us. Russia read the runes and has been disappointing everyone’s expectations since day one of the SMO, initial wobbles have been corrected and she now has the audience wondering just what is happening as it happens right in front of their eyes.
An excellent video that expands on Helmholtz’s analysis on Ruskie unpredictability is a video by Garland Nixon, found at: https://www.rokfin.com/stream/29195/WILL-PUTIN-SAVE-THE-WORLD
Garland, like few other analyst I’ve come across, paints a vivid, even at times humorous, picture depicting just how sneaky Putin can be…
JRC
The USA never ment to wage war against Russia. They set up 404 just to lure Russia into something violent so they can call up the NATO states for sanctions. And with those sanctions they wanted to crush the Russian economy cause a revolution in Russia and in the wake get rid of Putin. And subsequently take over the whole shebang.
Never underestimate the Russians. The harder they are pressed the better they get.
But maybe this is just another sideshow to crush our civilisation by those New World bastards by disrupting all or as much as possible supplylines. Trying to get rid of the superfluous people who are distroying “their” world. In their opinion 500 Millions are more than enough.
Just my thoughts.
Increasingly desperate USA/[P]EU bunglers vs Russian well-logistically/proximally postioned strategic calculators. Odds favor . . . ? GO VLAD!? VAPORIZE the ENTIRE “D[e]C[eit] AND surrounding area teeming w/ parasitic gov-agent dregs if Obiden’s puppeteers are actually that delusional!
BTW, perhaps Stalin’s paraphrased comment is increasingly applicable: “One death a tragedy, thousands a statistic”.
“The first aim in war is to destroy the enemy’s power”. Wrong. The aim of war is to win, but what does “win” mean? To the U.S., it means whatever’s best for the MIC. Losing Viet Nam, Iraq II, and Afghanistan were actually wins if you’re the MIC.
I spent 2013 as a uniformed O6 in a senior DoD strategy college. No one was questioning our recent loses as the abject failure they were to “Fight and Win Our Nation’s Wars.” Those defeats were exhaustively analyzed from a budgetary perspective (how to maintain one’s share of the DoD budget), and as a failure of our planning processes. But as a come-to-Jesus holy mother of god we just failed twice at our fundamental mission? Nope. Not once.
Just sayin’, the goals of war are political. Winning in a grand strategy sense may in fact mean losing the kinetic war. The way the BRICS are uniting and the U.S. is burning itself down in greed and stupidity is a giant win-win for Russia, handed to them on a silver platter. Maybe it’s ok from their perspective to drag this out a little, see where it goes. Maybe China uses this hole to press us on Taiwan, and thus again Russia benefits. Grand Strategy, not Clausewitz junk.
One can twist your thesis to say, “Oh, then the ‘enemy’s power’ in this case is NATO unity.” Ok. I’m just saying it’s perhaps not the Ukrainian military, as your post suggests.
“Grand Strategy, not Clausewitz junk.”
That made me smile. A man after my own heart.
One day NoKo may insert itself into this mess. So NoKo, China and Russia flexing military muscle simultaneously could be checked by what? Meanwhile India and other developing nations turn farther away from the US economically.
Yup. Exactly.
Killing mass numbers of Ukrainian troops in Bahkmut at this point is just another shaping operation. Given NATO and U.S. missteps, Russia is not trying to defeat Ukraine right now — that’s a given, child’s play. They are more likely trying not to win too big, too fast. That’s the crux of this author’s timing confusion.
Fixing the U.S. (and NATO, which really only matters to Russia) in Ukraine opens up manifest opportunities for the U.S.’s other competitors in other theaters of operation (like NoKo, as you rightly point out). Russia is shaping the global chess board, creating strategic opportunities for all of our competitors. My guess is that they are doing so w/o explicit international coordination. “Build it and they will come.”
We’re walking right into their trap. Either our regionally-oriented intelligence analysts are not seeing this (VERY, very unlikely), the White House is not listening to their warnings (VERY, very likely), and/or the MIC is again paving the way to max profits, as is their responsibility to their share holders and congressional sponsors.
Again, it’s not a loss from our shot-callers’ — the MIC — perspective. It’s just profits. They’re totally willing to cripple their host (the U.S.), because U.S. financial profit reports don’t look out Russia-far.
Russia totally knows this.
Coolest thing I learned as a military strategist: Eisenhower initially wrote “beware the Military, industrial, congressional complex” in his presidential farewell speech. An aide crossed out “congressional”, as that was crossing the lines of the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers. Wow, dude was such a strategic genius!
I understand exactly what you are saying (as well as the author) re; fixing the US in Ukraine and the ramifications of doing that. I will, however, disagree with you on the nuance that sucking the west into Ukraine and thus draining its ability to fight a larger/global conflict (or conflicts) means the US is more likely to escalate to nuclear – that would be its only remaining option; that or abject surrender. I don’t see the west accepting that they must surrender. Obviously, if things go nuclear, we all lose, including Russia. IMO, the west must be left with something, some facade of power and control; some face saving, but truly inconsequential, semblance of victory.
Counter to the doomsday scenario is the idea that US business could decide to accept a multipolar world and simply establish trade arrangements in configurations that make both the US and the other countries prosperous. Assumes that the other countries are willing to engage in mutually beneficial relationships. Also assumes that US Big Business would to come to realize that nuclear war is a real possibility and that a new international business model is the better option. I work for a Fortune 100 company, upper mid-level, and I don’t know what the people at the very top are thinking in that regard, if anything ( I lean toward largely clueless. One doesn’t see any prior military leadership experience in the upper echelon). While the MIC + congress cabal is big, US business is still bigger. It is not without influence. Big Business needs to be clued in.
I didn’t say or even imply anything about doomsday scenarios or nuclear escalation. Perhaps you were replying to someone else?
Doomsday outcomes do not benefit the shot-callers. The White House is unhinged about many issues, but there’s still enough adults around to stop idiotic nuclear escalation scenarios. Russia is benefitting from this slow burn and smart enough to continue playing it at the pace they have set.
If my calculations are correct from what I have heard, then Ukraine has lost about a third of the manpower it can bring to the battlefield without badly impacting necessary services, and this is probably unstarting the problem since I am assuming 150k dead and 3 badly wounded for every dead (maybe it is worse than this but the US was about 4 to 1 in the Middle East, but we also know that harder to get Ukrainian wounded to hospitals and probably very few descent medics). Heard about 3 million men can be drafted, meaning I think able bodied, but many will be needed to operate and maintain the infrastructure, security and administration. But heard much higher numbers:
Losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in accordance with the data transmitted by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny to the Pentagon, amount to 232 thousand killed.
According to the private company Stratfor Forecasting, Ukraine’s losses exceeded 305,000 killed.
https://en.axar.az/news/world/711752.html#:~:text=According%20to%20%22Stratfor%20Forecasting%22%20private%20company%2C%20305%2C000%20Ukrainian,105%2C000%20soldiers%20were%20wounded.%20Comments%20ru.axar.az%20See%20also
It those are right it is closer to half the number of men that can be used as bullet catchers.
Strategy: On the world map Ukraine is not Strategic to the Western Alliance.
It is Strategic to Russia.
To understand Anglo-American strategy one must understand it is indirect.
What is said is not meant, what appears to be important often is not what’s most important. One must also understand that Ukraine is irrelevant to America, England, most of Europe and none who do not border Ukraine.
What is relevant is America and for that matter most of Europe and certainly France and England who are nuclear powers [cannot be lightly invaded] cannot really be hurt by Russia except by nuclear war. This is Strategic. On the Strategic Map Ukraine is at best Operational, Ukraine is a reconnaissance in Force.
To understand goals one must look at context and results.
Context: The Primary goal of all governments is to remain in Power.
The USA and Western Alliance were facing massive discontent domestically from Populist uprisings of Right and Left for years, that has now been crushed by COVID measures in the entire West, and now by want, hunger, cold, inflation and internal political exhaustion in the West. Remember the Canadian Trucker uprising that Trudeau crushed? The uprising and the crushing by martial law vanished in the mists of the Dnieper battles.
There’s no spirit and no leadership in the West at any level now for Populism.
Context: The United States was facing allies in it’s prime alliance of NATO who were being bought by China and courting Russia [France was] as a counterweight to America, Germany was buying it’s energy from Russia – all that has ended. Yes the USA and NATO only have 13% of the ‘world’ with them, but it’s the 13% that matter most to the USA and European governments. At the price of their people suffering the governments in Europe remain in power, they themselves are not hungry or cold or out of work.
Context: Trump and January 6 did convince the American elites that the Deplorables need to get back to work in real blue collar jobs, COVID showed them their supply chains and so margins were extremely long and vulnerable coming from China and overseas, US manufacturing must reshore and America at least must re-industrialize.
Results: The Western alliance is now firmly in hand by naked force, it’s subject people’s crushed by want and hunger and a small amount of direct repression, a greater amount of vague fear.
Result: the USA – CONUS – is rapidly reshoring and re-industrializing. It’s at an actually frenetic pace , the number one USA manufacturing problem now is the anemic manufacturing labor base, currently projected to grow at 0.31%. The number 2 problem will shortly be energy, but to turn our energy and fracking back on is easy enough – as long as it’s kept now under elite control.
>>- one must understand American elites- all the Marxist Indoctrination in school had only the effect of making them fear the common man will rise up and kill them any moment, this is irrational but real. In all the inane Marxist Babble they discerned only 2 words: Fear Commons. << they left China. Greed outweighs Chinese Patriotism. > remember this story if you think the Americans are really incompetent. <<
===============
Which brings us from the realm of facts into speculation: there is a possibility and indeed a hope that with the above accomplished , America can quit. There's also a possibility that America might just have fought a small proxy war with Russia – to dissuade China from a bigger war later. As noted this is speculative.
The last 500 years and the above observations should make one pause to condemn the American's as really incompetent, perhaps like our predecessors and tutors the English we are just…. indirect. I do hope and am quite certain the larger picture above has occurred to the Russians, they are wise to wait for the Ukrainians to exhaust themselves in idiotic assaults.
No expert but know enough strategy: Attacking a braced and dug in defender is suicidal.
Continuously threatening an offensive that never comes, keeping the defender on high alert eventually leaves the defender exhausted and with low morale.
When the defender starts believing the attack won’t happen and starts losing focus, strike.
While keeping the defender on guard, there is the added benefit of having more time to train your reinforcements.
Maybe Russian Command is using this strategy.