One fact that is common to all modern military forces is that only a small percentage of the total number of soldiers are actually engaged in combat. At least that is the theory. The concept of “Tooth – to – Tail Ratio” is military-speak to describe the amount of military personnel it takes to supply and support (“tail”) each combat soldier (“tooth”).
For the U.S. Army in Iraq that ratio was roughly 8 support troops for each combat soldier. I got to thinking about this today (I had a long drive a plenty of time to cogitate) with respect to Ukraine’s upcoming offensive. Based on the classified docs allegedly leaked by Airman Jack Teixeira, Ukraine is planning to field 12 brigades, which could mean as many as 60,000 soldiers (i.e., one full strength brigade has 5,000 troops). Does this mean that all are combat troops? I don’t know. Let’s assume the answer is yes. Then that means the offensive would be backed up by 480,000 support troops. Last I checked (and I welcome anyone who can correct me), Ukraine does not have that many soldiers — at least trained personnel.
Let’s take the opposite assumption, i.e., that the 60,000 troops slated for the offensive represents the total number dedicated to that operation. If we use the 8 to 1 ration, that means Ukraine is fielding only 6000 actual combat troops. Here’s another example to contemplate. Let’s assume that Ukraine launches an offensive with 50 tanks, each with a four man crew. That is 200 tankers. Do the math. That means the tanks will need at least 1600 personnel to provide the support in terms of providing fuel, ammunition and repairs. Does Ukraine actually have the number of skilled personnel capable of providing that support?
If Ukraine is going to launch an offensive it cannot rely on static artillery, i.e. artillery pieces fixed in one location, because if they succeed in advancing forward they will be outside the range where those guns could provide them support by pounding Russian positions. Conversely, Russia has an enormous advantage in terms of artillery — both mobile and fixed — and ammunition that can be zeroed on advancing Ukrainian units. We have already seen that Ukrainian attempts to penetrate the Russian border in the Belgorod region have been beaten back with a lethal combination of artillery, missiles and close air support from combat fixed and rotary wing aircraft.
Let me know what you think.
Spot on analysis as always. I think this counter offensive is nothing more than vapor ware, but if it isn’t, Ukraine will conduct this offensive with as minimal support personnel as possible, maybe at a 1:5 ratio. That is about the lowest they can go, so 12,000 troops to conduct offensive operations and then their best trained troops will be with the armored brigades and your numbers will be exact: 4 per tank and lacking the expertise to service European supplied tanks. Its a fools errand and when you look at the numbers available, its hard not to conclude that this offensive is impractical.
“this offensive is impractical.”
That depends upon its purpose.
If the offensive is the suicide of the troops, it is indeed achievable.
The obvious response is that the “tail” will comprise NATOstani regulars in Ukranazistani uniform posing as “observers”, “volunteers”, and “trainers”.
Besides, any expeditionary war like Iraq will require a much greater tail to support the tooth, especially with an army like the American one where soldiers demand movies and sports facilities and bases have McDonald’s outlets. Philip Caputo said in his book “A Rumour Of War” that his fellow Marines in Vietnam contemptuously referred to the US Army as “ice cream soldiers” because of the luxurious way they lived, even then. The Ukranazistan military will need nothing like that amount of tail to support the tooth. The numbers may even be as low as 1:3 or 2.
But their American weapons systems require ridiculous levels of maintenance to even function. That takes people, but yes you are right. They won’t care about supplyblines or proper logistics, why need resupply of troops that won’t live long enough to shoot off their ammo bandoliers or tanks that will get recruited into Russias new sub-orbital space program before the fuel tank is half emptied?
See logistics are simple, pick up more ammo from the dead guy next to you.
Your logic makes sense. At this point I think the Russians have everything lined up to roll up the front all the way to the Dnieper river. IMHO, the only reason this is not happening is because they are waiting to see what transpires during the upcoming air force exercises and the NATO summit. In the meantime, they are happy to play the attrition game and bomb 404 into oblivion. As for Belgorod, anyone sane understands that 404 is playing the PR/distraction game (how do we know? CNN is manufacturing news daily on the Belgorod situation and then gushing over their own inventions – it is surreal really but here we are)- there are not remotely enough forces to make a difference in that area and even as a distraction they are not an issue because defenses have been built and sufficiently manned along the whole Russian front line (there is never going to be a repeat of Kharkiv offensive again, something Western “journalists” do not understand).
One thing though – given that the likes of Nuland seem to be the planners behind all of this (as per her own admission recently), I think that NATO escalation is probable. We shall see, I hope I am wrong.
p.s. Ukraine is now basically engaging in terrorism. The sad part is – western media gush over it not realizing that Russia has many more resources available and that if they decided to start the same tactics as 404 and their western sponsors, well, the world will be in a lot of hurt. Fortunately for all of us, the Russians do not stoop so low.
It may be partly PR and not just for CNN consumption but also to make the home front believe that enemy is being destroyed. Its interesting that targeting civilians in Donbass or Belgorod seems to get a pass in Western circles, despite this being a blatant war crime.
I think it has two other aims; first, to try and get Russians to shift some AA defence assets away from the front in Donbass and Zaporozhye. This may also be the reason for random attacks deep into Russia. These cheap drones require cheapest possible AA systems and if kinetic solutions are to be used, Pantsir system even has specially designed missiles to tackle drones. Problem with that is to cover large areas, you need lots of these Pantsir systems deployed. Second aim is to force Russians to hopefully beef-up defense around Belgorod and Kursk and in process weaken other areas or at least tie Russian reserves around Belgorod.
Western circles never had problems with blatant war crimes. Saying democracy/freedom/whatever justifies them in an instant.
I knew that Scholz was an idiot but I never really thought he was this far gone. Poor Germany. Haven’t you chosen enough idiots to lead you in the last 100 years?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1665242596950568960
He really, truly thinks Putin wants to conquer all of Europe. What’s his IQ…..anybody know?
I’m looking forward to seeing that fat AshkeNAZI toad Nuland being tried in a Russian tribunal.
CNN headlines are championing cross-border attacks on civilian infrastructure. They don’t even hide that the objective is to invoke terror in the civilian population and not military targets with occasional civilian collateral damage.
No wonder, as the technique was first employed by Clinton in the 2nd half of the ’99 war on Yugo. Destroying civilian infrastructure as means to an end. The AFU takes it to new heights, and has since 2014.
>IMHO, the only reason this is not happening is because they are waiting to see what transpires during the upcoming air force exercises and the NATO summit.
a thing i took with me from watching German Bundeswehr videos about the conflict is that they said 100.000 km^2 of Ukrainian territory was already mined by the Ukrainians back then.
Everytime someone talks about why this or that is an only reason that the Russians play offense defensively, i think of that clip. (i really dont remember the url, so ymmv)
I also don’t think that we should deify the Russians by projecting onto them what we think they may or may not stoop to do. But maybe that’s just me. If devious violence is the right tool, of course they’ll use it.
but the point is MINES! lots of MINES! one does not rush through mine-fields; risks loosing the tail.
I would think that by now most of us strongly suspect that the winter-spring-summer-fall counter offensive is in reality a PR offensive. As Russia has been waiting for the offensive to finally being launched – the next demilitarisation effort – and is now getting impatient, the Western leaders bought time to prepare for the inevitable – at least the smarter ones of the specimens did so.
P.S. Did you fellow posters notice what Blinken told his audience in Finland? He said that Russia has the strongest army in Ukraine (only). Pure PR for the home front but the smarter people in Finland will know that he trolled not Russia but them.
Ukraine’s just buying time by hook and by crook. They have been since 2014.
Equally, so have its supporters in the West. It’s a tag team fiasco, worthy of any wrestlemania staged event.
At the expense of their male population. I wonder when Western Ukranians finally figure out they are just a bunch of throwaway rag dolls our “leaders” use to money launder Western government assets.
US secretary of state anthony blinken actually said that russia claimed it had the second-strongest army in the world. meanwhile, blinken stated, russia actually had the second-strongest army in ukraine.
in other words according to blinken, the russian army is a nonentity.
thanks for repeating my post!
nope, not so: your statement was that blinken said “russia has the strongest army in ukraine”; when in fact he said “the SECOND strongest army”: BIG difference!
Not only that he stole an old joke, but his delivery is abysimal, especially considering that he practised. Blinken managed to be worse standup comedian that the Cokehead of Kiev.
He could improve the joke with this line:
Russia has the second strongest army in Ukraine. Wagner is the first.
He could improve his delivery with a line of Zelensky powder.
second strongest army Blinken said.
‘Smartest guy I know’, Biden said.
In my opinion the collapse of the Ukrainian Neonazi regime backed by US and NATO is a certainty. Russia knows that, her allies know that too. The only ones pretending not to know are Joe Biden, J. Stoltenberg and Klaus Schwab. Who would have ever imagined that Russia will allow a terrorist-type entity led by a drug addict, juvenile character named Zelinski defeat and disintegrate the Russian nation just for the fun? As Putin has said they haven’t even started a war on the Ukrainian regime and until today it seems to hold true. Perhaps Russia is taking advantage of Western folly, preparing herself for a much bigger scenario which could potentially involve all hostile NATO members. Ukraine doesn’t fit in that picture. That’s way we see a soft handed treatment of the current situation in Ukraine by Moscow. They figure that the Kiev regime will collapse on its own soon or later. Moscow only has to maintain the status quo till the right moment. In the mean time the entire world is moving forward with de-dollarization. Getting rid of the US-dollar mafia business is vital for the future of all life on this planet.
I don’t believe that de-dollarization will take extreme form except in some special cases. Even now, Iran uses dollars for 10% of its trade. For all countries that favor moving away from dollar, they will do so where it makes sense. In any trade with major Western countries they will likely use dollar currency except in cases where receiving payment in dollars may result in that being seized by US government. Trade not involving Western countries would more likely shift away from US Dollar currency. What is holding back the move away from dollar payments system is lack of commonly agreed exchange currency. Time will tell. I suspect that some digital form of currency may be created, tied to a mix of resources such as gold and other metals that hopefully are not exposed to large swings in value. Oil price seems too volatile to be part of the mix.
Yes you absolutely correct. By saying the world is going to de-dollarize we don’t mean the US will do the same thing. It means the west will encounter major challenges which they haven’t experienced since the British Imperial wooden navy took control of Mediterranean -Pacific Ocean sea trade route enabling it to control India some two-three centuries ego. Bribing illiterate Persian Shahs, Arab Khalifs to do their bets. Now going back that route again is simply impossible so the west will try its last gamble which is pushing the hegemony of the dollar followed by a total control over global banking system. But the big problem is once the NATO is handed its ass – on a silver plate – in Ukraine, de-dollarization will become even more urgent for the rest of the world. The new international order led by Russia-China will possess most of the natural resources, skilled labor force, technology and energy to support them all on long basis. By the way despite much western propaganda, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will be part of the new order no matter what happens, only because it’s their only chance to survive. The US and its allies will lose any competitive edge they currently hold in all those areas. From now on till next 10 years, EU countries will become more and more ready for major anti-establishment movements or even an all out revolution. In the US itself – experts predict – some sort of societal collapse brewing deep due to vast numbers of different cultures, ethnic groups and races from around the world that have poured into the US, Canada, Australia… just pursuing a delusion they got from watching too many special-effects Hollywood movies or playing too much video games etc. i.e. the Zelinsky Syndrome on a much larger scale.
The de-dollarizatiom will happen slowly. It will take time to unwind all the dollar denominated debt.
Those dollars will sooner or later come home, after all what are they really good for? Basically buying US goods or assets. The US still produces goods but nothing that unique that cannot be bought elsewhere cheaper.
Farmland might be a good buy for someone awash in dollars to spend. Perhaps coastal vacation homes, so stand back from the fallout from that!
Major Nato air exercises in Europe, a Nato summit taking place, Ukrainian army attempting a counter attack and getting an isht kicking. Perfect timing for a false flag to draw Nato directly into the conflict…something Ukraine has been trying to do starting with the downing of the Malaysian airliner in 2014.
Perhaps, but I believe if NATO gets involved “directly” into the conflict, Russia will go all out to destroy them. It will switch from SMO against Ukraine to WAR against NATO. NATO is a paper tiger, short of ammo and sundry war making machines, including fuel. They wouldn’t last 2 weeks against Russia. But maybe that is the US plan. Get the EU countries to destroy themselves going up against Russia while the US retreats back to the safety of being protected by 2 oceans. This may be why (or one of the reasons anyway) why Russia still hasn’t engaged the 300,000+ troops it has been training for 6+ months now. Where are they exactly and WHAT are they waiting for? Hmmm.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw the west trigger an open confrontation in the next month or two. The top Czech general wanted to resign (apparently before the SHTF, just like his predecessor resigned 3 days before the SMO started), but the PM Fiala refused to accept his resignation. General Rehka now says that he’s preparing the Czech army for war against Russia, that politicians allege the goal isn’t peace in UA, but the defeat of Russia.
It’s hard to know whether to laugh or cry as the Czech Republic doesn’t have much of an army for anyone to be afraid of (it had 100 years ago), they don’t even have the ammo or the equipment. They’re throwing around possibilities such as mobilization, but they literally have nothing, not even boots or helmets for the soldiers. Even the ammo from the 80s was secretly sold out during the 90s and early 2000s and the warehouses and storage facilities are full of cobwebs. Which is apparently one of the reasons why he wanted to resign, to avoid responsibility when it becomes obvious that they have nothing.
Regardless, what this indicates though is that at the top military commander level, there are discussions about an open conflict with Russia.
On top of that, the Czech Republic just sent a letter of intent to the US, ti allow the US military to place whatever military assess, wherever in the country. The US would have full access to all resources and Czech could not even go anywhere and monitor for pollution, etc. A completely one-way contract, which will have to be ratified by the Czech parliament. Czech media is understandably downplaying this. Knowing how corrupt Czech politics is, it will probably pass. And if they cancel the NATO-Russia treaty, it will then allow US to place nukes in the Czech Republic. This would be a disaster. It was such a beautiful country, but it’s clearly heading down the drain.
Time will tell. Maybe the Russians will soon have nightmares of the fearsome Czech army marching on Moscow in galoshes… Or, so the MSM will tell us. LOL
Note: All sources for the above are in Czech. If you know Czech, you can easily find them, or holler and I’ll point you the right direction.
I assume that du to the lack of everything the Ukrainian offensive will in fact consist of the simultaneous activation of dozens of terrorist cells on Russian and Belarusian territory. during this time the Ukrainian army will enter in transinistrie. maybe even the polish army in belarus and western ukraine
The ratio is not so as important as the ‘type’.
Is the support ‘push’ or ‘pull’?
Traditionally the Sov/Russians would push logistics and support forward (this is what is going to be needed and used for operation X, so they push it forward).
The West has always traditionally ‘pulled’ along what it thinks it’s teeth will need and ask for as they advance, so they pull it along.
In this case it will be a matter of ‘suck’.
What is left on the shop floor, is going to be the available level of support, if it can move forwards or survive! It will be sucked into the battle.
And that sucks.
Yes, and recon pull is used by the US in certain situations which would be manifested by ISR pull, in this case. In that event that will mean the Ukies will face plant into the three-level defensive works, hence bad juju, which will mean certain death and/or captivity. In any case, Cocainskyy will obey any orders from Biden to “push” into the meat grinder, if that is the alternate choice.
I can’t imagine many Ukrainian troops (excluding the Azov types) are bothered about being captured. Far better treatment than from the Blinken/Nuland/Zelensky dictatorship.
Their problem is how to avoid getting killed or maimed before they can get captured.
8 to 1 is approved ratio for expeditionary troops. For country defence it is less. Lets say 3/4 to 1. Even that number could be smaller if you have civilian society behind you so civilians could do full logistics work. Actually, everything up to 30 km behind front could be civilians.
The ukrozionazi entity’s president, Voldemort Cocainsky, has been preparing for the famed “offensive” He is demanding and demanding more of this and some more of that. The latest demand by Cocainsky (only yesterday) for warplanes, weapons and other aid, is to the tune of 55 billion dollars. Seems that Cocainsky is not going to stop his bloodletting of the west any time soon.
He is a stage managed role player. He only gets a tiny cut of that. Most of that money is transferred from the US government to US and preferred EU oligarch’s pockets. That is the whole shell game and why these wars go on as long as possible. Assange called it out in his Afghanistan video clip from 2011. Smedley Butler too in his War is a Racket essay. It is good business in the USA if you can break into it.
Next “Cocainsky” will be demanding more of the “white stuff” though I do have to admit I believe he already is and receiving a lot of it along with other “weapons” he has to have for his fantasy offensive.
Hey Sick man, the Mexico Drug cartels need more Western Weapons, that’s why Cokelensky, the POTUNS (President of the Ukraine Nazi States) needs more of those things to sell them? More Cocaine, more Weapons, more Money for Houses & spending money for his Wife, GIMME MORE like the Britney Spears song, says Cokelensky using his fake, gravelly Batman voice against a green screen to petition the hopeless Biden Neocon Administration! Pathetic!
My grandpa was in Yugoslavian partisans a cook, but his gun to ladle ratio was 90% and finished the war with 5 bullets. 3 were taken out and 2 he kept as souvenirs within his body. I guess the American military cook keeps 2 Michelin stars instead. The Tooth to tail is a nice to have principle. BTW my grandpa won the war.
And my grandpa first fled the Bolsheviks, resettling in Novi Sad then fled the Nazis 25 yrs later, ending up in post-war US controlled Munich and preferred that to returning to partisan controlled Yugoslavia.
We all have our stories.
I reckon my grandpa won because he believed in what he had fought for. Not implying that he was right. Everyone has a story.
Grandpa won because Red Army joined the chat. 🙂
Some history lessons missed.
He missed the part where Tito stood Stalin down and told him to mind his own business.
Dušane, my father, now deceased, lost two brothers in WW2. One presumably died in Germany as he was a prisoner, only evidence was a letter from him found in local post office after the war. Other was a Partisan, and he died in battles against retreating Germans in 1945, in Vojvodina area I think. My father was too young to be involved.
This is not a storytelling club, but a discussion of tooth-to-tail ratio. Fleeing, resettling, and preferring not to return, does not influence tooth-to-tail ratio much.
Well, I was going to segue into how Serbia has been side by side with Russia well before and after the Soviets, transcending the importance of the left-right ideological battles of that era and frankly making them irrelevant today…. and how that ultimately created the permanent Serbian burr under the EU’s saddle to this day.
But since that’s not directly related to the topic, just germane to the entire fiasco in Ukraine that actually started with the bombing of Belgrade (or earlier) and the annoying US habit of sponsoring extra-constitutional secessions that are to its liking and condemning those that are not, I’ll not bother.
All I know is I’m getting longer in the tooth waiting for Russia to wrap up this denazification business. Too many damn nazis over there, I guess.
I say give the job to Western MSM. They made all those nazis disappear with one stroke of the pen. Amazing.
I once saw a goat eat a Buick, that’s all I’ve got…..
It is nothing comparing to my Pacman score from 1986. 😁
I am curious about the word “offensive”. Ukraine has five choices: 1) retreat and regroup west of the Dnieper; 2) Remain more or less static and get decimated; 3) mass whatever forces they have and try a direct frontal assault (at the key point -where?) ; 4) split their forces so as to execute some sort of flanking manuever; or 5) magically reposition their forces so as to attack the Russian from behind.
It seems, no matter what the total numbers; there aren’t enough to try a multi pronged assault. And if a mass is sent against one point, there aren’t enough to maintain an extending supply train. Ukraine doesn’t seem to have enough manpower to conduct a mobile war, while Russia has its ‘strategic reserves’. Note: it seems Russia’s weakest point is not enough husbands for the women.
Yesterday morning: Ukraine is ready for a counter-offensive, Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal and added that he needs 50 (fifty) Patriot air defense systems.
Yesterday evening: Deputy Chief of Staff of the President of Ukraine Igor Zhovkva believes that Ukraine does not have enough weapons for a counter-offensive.
Meanwhile: Europe will pay 10 times more for sanctions against Russia than for supporting Ukraine, said Josep Borrell, head of the EU’s foreign policy service.
The neocons have reason to be happy.
The neocons have reason to be crying in their pillows just about now.
Borrel… !
chi cazzo l’ha votato ? chi gli ha dato il permesso di parlare a nome dell’Italia?
nessun italiano
idem per la strega V.d. Layen
You guys joined the EU. You guys voted in Meloni….. I used to like Italy when it had that anarchistic flair to its politics and changed governments every 6 months. What happened to you?
Raytheon can only manufacture 200 interceptors a year, so with 16 or 32 per launcher – they could have their 50 launchers but would need to wait a decade before they could load them.
Your reasoning works for professional expeditionary armies of the Western type. It can’t be applied to Ukraine. Besides, I doubt Ukrainians have sufficient training to maintain the diverse equipment that the West has handed to them. And as other commenters said, Ukrainians can very well assign certain support tasks to civilians. Imo, different math is needed here and the fact that different, made up from scratch math is involved is perhaps the biggest reason why a Ukrainian offensive is so unlikely to succeed.
One fundamental question comes to mind:
Is Ukraine engaging in terror attacks on Russian border cities as a precursor to a counter-offensive or in lieu of one?
Time will tell, I suppose
We’ve been waiting for the counteroffensive since December. I think we’ve already seen it. We just didn’t notice.
Eh, they managed to take a few prisoners in Belgorod. Heard it on the grapevine that they’ll let them go if Russia leaves all of Ukraine and takes the Russian speakers with them. Desperation springs eternal, I guess.
Then, on another grapevine I heard that Prigozhin and Kadyrov are going head to head over who gets first dibs on manning that border area. They both seem awfully eager to go at the next batch.
terrorism: it’s the best that the NATO-Anglosax-led UKRO can do.
They will import Jiad and African guerrillas to create maximum damage to Russian civilians,
The usual dirty war for “freedom and democracy” with maximum collateral damage and war crimes to be pinned on the Russians with the help of the “free press”
this will be the ukro “big offensive”.
non parlare male della UE ! Eversivo !
The EU in all it’s glory:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FxzxaEoXgAIN2WI?format=jpg&name=900×900
The issue with 1:8 tooth to tail ratio is that it is required for lasting offensive, while my guess is that they are going to try to make quick gains which can be performed with much smaller tail count.
Ofcourse, it is obvious that unless UKR pulls some unforseen trump card (like someone mentioned, some multi-thousand drone swarm that would trow chemical weapons) that catches RU completely by surprise and makes huge casualty count in matter of days, they appear to have no chance at all, especially against comparable numbers of RU troops that are dug in.
Good example was during Kharkiv offensive, where 9k fully armed UKR troops could not directly attack 500 lightly armed LDPR militia that were not even entrenched but just located in the city, therefore after few direct attempts they decided to encircle the city, and even then, RU paratroopers in much smaller numbers were able to prevent it long enough in order to successfully evacuate LDPR militia.
This time however, UKR cannot hope to match 18:1 ratio, likely not even 2:1 surprise on any front, while they would be stopped by minefields, dragon teeth and trenches, with very quickly arriving air power and artillery support, that would make any such attempt truly suicidal.
However, there is one thing that is quite strange for me – why didn’t UKR yet attempt to attack Transnistria? They should be able to manage to make big manpower advantage there, and whats even more important, Transnistria has very low territory depth, which means that they cannot easily perform defense in depth, its not easy for RU to support them remotely other then with drones and missiles (thus airpower advantage is nullified), and their stocks of everything are limited and not directly supported by huge RU industrial and production capacities.
It isn’t their territory. They have no claim to it. It would most certainly drag Moldova into the war and maybe the rest of NATO? The population of Moldova isn’t particularly happy with their governments actions as it is…there was a phony press release a bit a go claiming Sandu requested Ukraine to liberate it…but she doesn’t have the support in her country to ask that.
@ Goldhoarder,
You go about this like they really care about formalities – they literally bomb civilians on purpose, commit terror acts without any worries, uses civilians as shield or worse (both West and UKR), so why would they care about which formality it is?
I think the tooth to tail ratio implies that survival rates for Ukrainian wounded must be extremely low. I just don’t see the infrastructure organisation and training there to extract wounded men, who I guess mostly die.
Ukraine to Russia dead ratio very probably is 7 or 8 to 1 on average. Though the wounded ratio and total casualty ratio is probably not so extreme.
POW ratios are even higher, but that also implies a lack of support for men in distress.
The beauty with the Schweizer Wehrmacht (Swiss conscripts army) whene I served was its Tooth – to – Tail Ratio of 8:1, i.e. the opposite of the US military. Wait, what,; how is this possible?!
The Swiss army was (now it has been extinct and defacto incorporated into the NA(h)TO(d) by the Swiss neocons) a pure defensive army. Its strategy relied on pure in depth echelon defense with solely falling back. There was no counter(offensive) in its planning; the general staff was well aware that Switzerland would not have the capacity and this would just be a waste of military ressources as was “Unternehmen Wacht am Rhein” (Battle of the Bulge). Whole Switzerland was spanned with by far the highest decentralized network of ammo / spare parts depos and repair facilities in the world – any spot was never farther away than two kilometers from it. I.e. the tooth was not dependent on a big tail – it could support itself.
Furthermore Teenagers were obliged to take a 3 years “Stifti” (“workman apprenticeship”, a concept unknown in most part of the world); this further decreased the size of the tail because lots of the maintainance could be done by the tooth.
Furthermore the whole rear echelon and logistics stuff and facility protection were run solely by people elder than 45 (“Landwehr” and “Landsturm”) or with physical limits (“Hilfsdienst” HD), i.e young people (“Auszug”) would all have been fighting at he forefront ; my father served till 60 as a lieutenant. “Switzerland does not have an army, it is an army itself”, was the official slogan.
Ps: Wehrmacht is not an expression copyrighted by the Germans as commonly assumed and falsly colportated by Wiki; it’s just Deutsch for army.
https://www.booklooker.de/B%C3%BCcher/Hundert-Jahre-Schweizer-Wehrmacht/id/A02ngdLQ01ZZS?zid=ek5r16qpgmrdileupcldgbsj6s
The Desert Storm model of 4.9 was the evidence that log trains could be Privatized(Dick Cheney/ Charles KRULAK:) A lot of SHACK MY MONEY MAKERS.
Come sempre le analisi di Larry sono solide e ben argomentate. A questo punto, l’opzione più sensata per l’Ucraina sarebbe la resa, confidando nella generosità del fratello popolo russo.
I think the point of the offensive is to keep the conflict going. Biden(his donors) want to prolong it through the election cycle. Tactics, strategy, Ukraine lives are irrelevant. We will see if democrats(donors) are in sync. I have no idea political situation in Russia. There must be a group that wants to intensify the attacks to bring Ukraine to its knees for the world to see. Are there business interests that want to make money, even play along with US policy, LBTQ, race… possibly? I do not know, but the past is the indicator and Russian politics is not stagnant.
“but the past is the indicator”
Here https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/25783813-peter-palms/4550806-role-of-j-p-morgan-in-providing-loans-to-england-and-france-in-world-war-i-souring-of-loans
Here Antony Sutton – Wall Street and The Rise of Hitler.pdf (PDFy mirror) https://archive.org/details/pdfy-5eExjV4vNR-WNS8o
Given that the Ukraine is now made up of a very diverse mix of all kinds of in-compatible weapon systems, it would seem to me that they won’t deal with ‘logistics’ at all. Simply perform a blitzkrieg, and then count on their mentality of stubbornly holding on to whatever they have to do “drive” the Russians to the negotiation table.
If you where making this presentation to the U.S. Congress on a matter of budget, principles etc, it would go nowhere; they are not interested in facts.
In a sad way, it is refreshing that war sweeps all that bullshit aside, as your analysis has.
As this Ukraine war spreads to Europe and the U.S. (the neocons cannot have a peace) then men like you will be indispensable for the new republics.
First question:
What could be the goals for a successful offensive?
And:
What means does it need for?
Considering the terrible gap of artillery and air force between the two waterings, I think the only way for a Ukrainian success lays in a ( or several) russian general treadon like in France in may 1940 when without the treason of french general (at least) Huntzinger, never Gudérian could succeed in his crazy Bulges crossing.
80000 men is definitely not enough to reach Azov see or Crimea.
What remains?
Take a big city like Mélitopol, Donetz or Belgorod and stay there in defying Russians and killing the most possible of them?
But even for that, 80000 is not enough considering the 10/1 ratio artillery and the absolute russian air superiority on LOC.
Then, I think russian treason is there indispensable.
Follow the FSB and the sudden dismissal of some top russian brass…
Here are the ratios of “tooth to tail” for different wars
WW1 1 : 2.6
WW2 1 : 4.3
Korea 1 : 12.3
Vietnam. 1 : 12.9
Gulf War, 1991 1 : 4.9
Iraq 2005 1 : 8.1
It is interest to note that the army with lower ratio of “tails”, will tend to suffer higher casualties. In WW2, Germany’s highly supported operation Barbarosa, required a great many fighting unsupported Russian casualties to defeat it. What does WW1 tell us? A depopulation of Europe. The high ratio of Russian “tails” supporting the SMO “tooths” also proves the point.
Russians depleted Nato’s arsenals dry and had enough time to liquidate Nazis. Are they going to wait for the F-16s and will they be delivered? Assuming Russian leadership answers the F-16s question to their satisfaction, will the drive to the river begin soon?
The Russians have studied well Sun Tzu, and he says “Time is on the side of the weakest do not delay, engage.” Is time to take the battle to the weak Ukranians? Is it time to push them across the river and hold; menacing Kiev and forcing the reality of defeat on the Nato clown troup. Then, hopefully a balkanization of Ukraine and a defeat to the MacKinderites?
At least we won’t listen to Blinkeny Blanks’ BS and Ukraine regaining Crimea.
Larry, what makes you think that the NATO (who really run this circus not the Ukrainians) command would care about proper logistics orvsupply lines?
This is a military that kidnaps pizza delivery boys off the street to fight on the front lines.
Would Ukraine send out a force that had inadequate logistics? They wouldn’t think twice on it. They will send every soldier, cook, clerk or shit shoveler into the meat grinder just to make a headline and grift a few more billion dollars into those Cayman Islands and Lichtenstein bank accounts.
When they get wiped out in their view it only makes a stronger case for the Neocons to put actual NATO troops on the line.
The USS Gerald Ford has already been placed under Nato command, and is steaming to its new location in anticipation of its new role as the world’s largest artificial reef.
If they manage to get NATO to scrounge up enough ammo for a kamikaze suicide charge I doubt anyone in Kiev, Brussels or Washington would give a crap if they have adequate supply lines.
I say send Victoria Nudelman and Lindsay Graham to lead the charge of the Light-weight Brigades. That will show those Russians who’s boss.
Larry
some months ago, you wrote about an episode in Honduras,Nicaragua and the Contras.
The Us Governement wanted to see “results”, therefore they forced the contras to attack, although they were far from being ready and enough equiped.
But they were forced to attack, and it ended in a disaster.
I am wondering if something similar might happen now.
US ratios do not apply here. Canon fodder troops have very short tail. Others have tail stretching out of equation, into Poland.
Nice analysis Larry. However, you look at it the UkroNazi’s just don’t have the numbers.
And this is why the Ukes are slow-playing their offensive. Even while their Western Masters grow ever more strident in demanding one.
The Ukes and the West are actually being honest for once. The Uke demands for 40, then 80, then 200 F-16’s? That is the ONLY way they can do something. Because it would require NATO tail to support. And NATO involvement. The West is being honest that they have to have an offensive. To get some news they can sell to their increasingly aware voters back home.
As always with the human race? It is a sprint to see who fucks over who first. The West is quite happy for the Ukes to die in some bizarre Banzai charge. The Ukes are also quite happy to let the Western politicians slow broil over the fire of bad publicity.
The end game? I sincerely thought this would be strung out till after the 2024 election. And then we would slink away. Russian constant pounding is making that timeline increasingly untenable. I think the next few weeks are scary with the NATO exercises. If we survive that, I think the West starts shutting the door to more aid. Because they will realize it is over. And also, they are out. The cupboards are bare.
At that point, what do the Ukes do? Well, first they have some serious dirty laundry. From Biden on down. But our media would not carry a picture of Biden actively raping a 2-year-old, so that is not an option. Request negotiations? Russia would sit down. But I cannot envisage Russia excepting anything less than Kharkiv, Odessa, everything East of the Dnieper, and complete dissolution of the Ukrainian Army. When the West realizes this that moves up their game. Eat the shit sandwich now, so the flavor is out of your mouth BEFORE the 2024 election.
I truly believe the Ukrainians are evil. But they sat down at a table with an evil greater than themselves. The US. That old phrase. ” When you sup with the devil, you best use a long spoon”.
The dedollarization discussion du jour ignores some reality.
1) The Eurodollar market was created when foreign banks made loans denominated in dollars. Financial media will point out that the U.S. Treasury bond market is the elephant in the room because bond trading dwarfs equities.
The eurodollar market dwarfs the U.S. Treasury market. It is at least 3X bigger. So Chairman Powell directly affects only 1/4 of the dollar universe (he does have some indirect effect).
Until all those trillions of eurodollar loans are paid in full, the dollar will have some sway. Those (trillions of $$$) loans represent the demand for dollars.
Because of a dollar shortage, the U.S. Treasury opened a facility to provide overnight, one-week, or one-month bridge loans to foreign central banks. Those loans have to be repaid, with interest, in dollars. See how that works?
For most of the world, even most of the BRICS, the U.S. is either their first, second or third biggest market. To transact in that market, those entities need dollars.
So there is plenty of latent demand for dollars.
In a way, ‘dedollarizaion’ is like sanctions in reverse. Sanctions sometimes backfire.
Larry, following the logic of your argument, the offensive, if it is to be more than a PR exercise that will collapse rapidly into a PR failure as it will leave Ukraine with virtually no trained forces, must include a NATO tail. Hence why Russia seems to be waiting for the NATO exercises before committing its vast, recently militarized troops.
My guess is that NATO hoped the newly mobilized forces would have been seriously attrited some or significantly in Ukraine (at a highly destructive rate to Ukraine), plus NATO would have learned something about how Russia fights. Instead, NATO has learned only about how Wagner fights and the Donbass/Lugansk forces fight, while Russia has learned a lot about NATO training, strategy, and weapons (and adapted its strategies and A2AD).
This creates a further imbalance in the upcoming direct NATO/Russia battle. I pity the Finnish NATO soldiers who will be at the frontline (as they pay the price for their leaders’ corruption).
Ukraine doesn’t have what it takes to field a complete army. I have wondered for a long time how Ukraine takes care of all the wounded. There were stories that they left the wounded to die on the battlefield and those that received treatment were overflowing in the Donbass hospitals. That was a year ago. Supposedly the US helps with medical care. What is the situation today with larger numbers of casualties and attrition of medical support?
Ukraine has a very activer organ business – lots of severely wounded don’t get treated but recycle for cash. A Dr from the Netherlands was heading it up the last report I saw.
The 8 to 1 ratio seems extremely high and, if true, evidence of gross ineptitude since Afghanistan was not heavy forces and would have not required resupply of armor and FA ammo and fuel; maybe it includes Air forces which have enormous tails (think airbases for a few jets or helos). In USAREUR/7A (aka NATO CENTAG) at its peak and where I spent 21 years in the G8 and G3, we had 4 Divisions (two minus roundout Bde’s stationed in the US) , 2 ACRs, 2 Corps (some combat forces (aviation and FA ) and a Theater Support Command. The 4 Div contained 3 Combat Maneuver Bde 3,4,3 Bns and one Spt Bde 3 bn plus Div FA, Aviation and Commo. The 2 Corps each had a Corps Support Cmd and the Theater Support Command contained both Combat Support and Combat Service Support (Finance, HR, Medical, etc) as well as the theater ammo, fuel and maintenance. Total combat power 70, 000? in theater out of 200,000 with the NATO US commitment of an additional 6 Heavy Divisions and 2 roundout Bdes, an additional 100, 000, 90% combat forces. Overall about 1.5 to 1 with relative short supply lines and assumed Air Supremacy over Germany. Absolutely no chance of resupply from the US. All equipment (POMCUS) , fuel and ammo were pre-positioned in ammo and fuel supply points throughout the expected combat zone and we did not expect the war to last very long, hence stated first use of nukes policy should conventional forces fail. We hoped we could successfully defend, we knew we couldn’t advance.
Given modern ISR guided precision weapons, I cannot imagine how long it would have taken the Russians to take out Miesau Army Depot, and the two Corps level ASPs, and 4 Div ASPs, 24 hrs maybe. Given the technology changes, I don’t thing Germany could have been defended with anything other than Nukes.
If the Ukraine forces were trained and indoctrinated by NATO, then they are incapable of fighting/resupplying forces over a long period of time. Given what I have been reading over the past year, that may be the Ukraine’s biggest problem, ie, not being able to get fuel and ammo to the combat forces in a timely manner, thus keeping in in concentrated supply point awaiting transport, that in this day of ISR and precision weapons, seems criminal, not just stupid. Oh yeah, I spent 4 months in Hungary in V corp HQ, under another Abrams, at an old Russian airbase, wondering, WtF we were doing since the Army recommended to the national command structure in 1990 that we withdraw from Europe. LoL
Yes, as far as it goes, and one of the only places so recognized and public stated.
However the ‘tail’ and ‘tooth’ have already been augmented by OTAN forces. ‘Tooth’ in ukronazi drag; ‘tail’ by service facilities and staging areas in the client states of germany, poland, romania, most prominently. Also, doesn’t take much support to press gang 14 and 70 year old volkssturm kannon fodder brigaden. Doesn’t even take many Автома́т Кала́шникова, since they can’t use them anyway!
Wonder if we’ll see the end of the month… ‘Able Archer II’ fast approaching! To turn the 18th Brumaire on it’s head, the first as farce, the second tragedy?
Yeah, interesting timez!
“Conversely, Russia has an enormous advantage in terms of artillery — both mobile and fixed — and ammunition that can be zeroed on advancing Ukrainian units”
Russians on the ground say this, commander of “Vostok” Khodakovsky:
“The enemy fired 74 large-caliber shells at 6 of our positions within an hour. Methodically transferring fire from one position to another, 11-17 shells for each position …. You know, that’s a lot. The position is only 4 or 6 people at the point, and it turns out that each had an average of 3 shells – the enemy lives well. Thank God – all are intact. One thing is depressing – we never answered.”
Correspondent Sladkov:
“ZAPORIZHIA DIRECTION. THE SITUATION IS UNPLEASANT.
Our positions are under heavy artillery fire. I know a lot of bad details, but I won’t reveal them.
The trend: they hit us – we don’t respond, and there are very bad reasons for this, there are several of them and all of them do not depend on the warring battalions, regiments, divisions. Hundreds of shells are flying at us, zero in response. What kind of war is this?
Counter-battery combat, as the main, constantly used method of countering enemy artillery, is absent in our SMO. It doesn’t exist, no matter what anyone says.
Big commanders probably read other books. And they don’t say that in reality the Ukrainian artillery beats the Russian one, and even a year ago, who would have thought that this would be possible…”
The “Tooth – to – Tail Ratio” may not be favorable for Ukraine alone, but what about NATO as a whole?
From the latest ‘Foreign Affairs’:
To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/protect-europe-let-ukraine-join-nato-right-now
The author, a former Minister of Defense of Ukraine, assures us that admitting Ukraine into NATO would not automatically result in the invoking of the “Article 5 provision, which declares that an armed attack against one of the organization’s members “shall be considered an attack against them all.” ”
No, it’s only so that Ukraine can continue to “protect Europe” which is “is not ready to defend itself ” from “Putin’s colonial aspirations” and “Russia’s imperial ambitions”.
Jesus wept.
This runaway freight train has no brakes. There is NO ONE in the west who isn’t operating under the same mindset. And for Russia the matter is existential.
We are being led inexorably to WWIII, which means nuclear war.
May God help us all.
The future war is terrorist attacks …. not battlefields.
Russia will go bankrupt (just like all other countries that NATO accuses of “Socialism”)
Socialist countries will be forced to spend a zillion for security and thus less funding for social programs.
Syria. Chechnya. Russia done that. I note the irony in your handle, “Calm.”
I think the offensive has begun and it’s the Russians taking the Ukies to task…
Would have included this above, but just saw it. Well not ‘de jure’ OTAn, but ‘in spirit!’
Some swedish ‘tail’:
https://johnhelmer.net/sweden-wants-to-reverse-the-battle-of-poltava-watch-out-for-the-june-12-deadline/#more-88081
I note that Zelenski is boycotting the coming NATO conference and I consider that good news. He hopes to lever out more war materiel, jets, tanks, whatever, but showing he has given up on the war or at least NATO. That suggests that he knows NATO is not a resource for him and it also suggests that NATO will not act during his coming offensive. If there even is one.
FWIW,
Larry (the other Larry J.)
Good heaven’s I hope that’s true!
Let’s get Saakashvili on the phone and ask him what he thinks.
I am with “Noname” on this one — the 8:1 tooth-to-tail ratio for the US in the assault on Iraq is in no way a guide to the tooth-to-tail ratio needed by the Zelensky regime fighting on its home turf with the whole of NATO behind it. Most of the “tail” need not be part of Zelensky’s forces. Thus Zelensky could probably put most of his surviving forces onto the front lines.
From the Russian side, the real issue is not the Zelensky regime — which everyone understands would collapse very quickly if US/NATO support dries up. The issue is what the US/NATO are going to do.
Probably Russia is going very slowly in the hope that NATO fractures and the short attention span US loses interest. On the other hand, if US/NATO become more belligerent than they already are, Russia will have to deal with the NATO “tail” by direct attacks on military installations beyond the Ukraine. And that would inevitably lead to thermonuclear World War III. These are very dangerous times!
Russia is going slowly because there’s millions of mines in the ground on a cities approach and AFU will hide behind women and children for collateral damage they can pin on Russia to weaken it’s intl support. Russia only hope for quick is making Ukraine come out and play which I believe that’s what Prigozhin and other doomers are doing. Weakening the army enough then Russia can painstakingly go house to house in cities like Mariupol.
Sure they could just Raqqa the place but then BRICS and other competing institutions Russia and allies are trying to do and bring multipolarity to the world ends up dead. Not to mention there’s Russian in there they want to save not slay.
IMO this war will take a decade if Ukrainians/NATO don’t want to surrender. Basically to last Ukrainian like Ms Linsey said
Tooth to Tail ratios may be irrelevant. The few remaining senior officers in the Ukraine army know they can’t do it. They are putting on a show for headlines. Terrorism works good for that.
That worries me. Hold on for two weeks guys! In two weeks the big military exercise with 240 NATO combat aircraft!
People like Victoria Nuland & little Blinky are not rational. Nor is the Democratic Party. I am worried that they believe their own BS & are therefore ready to roll the dice.
I think the action may be between the Pentagon & Washington.
NATO needed 1000+ combat aircraft to bomb Serbs. In order to try anything against Russians, they would need much more than 240. Even Ukraine had more than that, a year and a half ago.
From ‘War on the Rocks’
Ukr army is fighting as WW1 Amateur!
https://warontherocks.com/2023/06/what-the-ukrainian-armed-forces-need-to-do-to-win/
This looks like it’s AI generated.
“History has repeatedly shown how a well-trained and properly led military can beat a poorly trained army.”
This is some AI Sun Tzu stuff.
“The way to change the equation in Ukraine’s favor is through combined arms operations and training.”
This is a message AI wants to send back to year 2014.
Current OSINT just posted on Zero Hedge 1000pst:
Belgorod/Shebekino cross RU border fighting
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-cross-border-raid-russias-belgorod-sunday-fighting-ongoing
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1665279874150563840%7Ctwgr%5E7aebdd7eda7b0815cbea087a8f2ef588cc3e0c57%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fnew-cross-border-raid-russias-belgorod-sunday-fighting-ongoing
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1665367352588873732%7Ctwgr%5E7aebdd7eda7b0815cbea087a8f2ef588cc3e0c57%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fnew-cross-border-raid-russias-belgorod-sunday-fighting-ongoing
According to the news in the media, the Ukrainian forces are mostly guerrilla-style terrorist groups with the mission of murdering civilians for the news in the media and for that they only need bullets because they don’t even need food because they steal it from their victims.
If a handful of Wagners were able to expel them from the city of Bakhmut, one cannot speak of an organized military force.
There is talk of a lot of money and arms trafficking, but murdering civilians is a crime and not a military feat.
I would point out that in Iraq we were fighting against basically well armed peasants half way around the world. It seems only logical that the length alone would unduly increase the number of support personnel and it was not a very serious fight to begin with so inefficiency and bureaucracy could have it’s way. 8 to1 seems an excessive high ratio.
But your point still stands. If 60k is the entire fighting force then some of that is support personnel making this much talked about “offensive” only offensive to actual offensives of the Barbarossa or Bagration type.
There will be no counter-offensive to speak of, few bangs, few suicidal excursions here and there and that will be that, even if NATO does all the tail jobs.
What’s more scary is the biggest NATO exercise both north and south of Russia, NATO fighter jets could fly over non-Russian territory launching missiles into Russia claiming it’s all done by the newly trained Ukrainian pilots.
Don’t rely on logical response, why, I used to send in stealth squads of 8-10 men to disrupt and kill the opposing forces ( Nintendo – 80-90’s era ) all the time ( mixed results – never a skilled player! )
Serious tho, don’t rely on logic in war.
Sorry my English. How many ukronazi there r again?
Great analysis Larry, when you think of it in the way you described this in your fabulous article here, this really is all about the numbers, it’s a numbers game on who has it in their favour to win this conflict? And unlike what the BS lying Western Media & their propaganda says or the serial liar, Anthony Blinken spouts out of his delusional & poisonous mouth, the numbers don’t lie & the numbers state the undeniable fact that the US, NATO & Ukraine has LOST! Russia is winning & will win this Proxy War against the USA & it’s NATO vassals & Ukraine! Game over!
According to Polish prime Minister Morawiecki: “The Ukrainian offensive has already started. To what extent it will be effective, the coming months will probably decide and we will be closer to answering the question of how long the war will last.”
Zelinsky lost some of Ukraine’s best trained troops in Artemovsk that could have participated in the offensive. Every day Russia continues to destroy ammo depots, air defense systems, maintenance facilities and logistical resources.
If the offensive is already underway then has the combat effectiveness of Ukraine dropped so low that all they can muster is desperate cross border raids into Russia and shelling civilian areas?
It is clear and it has been clear for a long time… Ukraine DOES NOT have an army anymore…!!!
The ratio Larry mentioned demonstrates Ukraine’s military impotence.
What Ukraine does have is enough trained troops and equipment to be a significant “resistance” force, a sort of maqui which can cause Russian troops lots of problems.
Accordingly, Russia has been sitting pretty for months in the hope Ukrainian troops will die in the killing fields while men of conscription age leave the country.
It is not just the softness of the ground that has delayed Russia…
It is much easier to gain control of a large are when the possible resistance is no more… BUT, at some point in time, Russia will have to move to obliterate Ukraine’s army… completely… so that any Ukrainian hopes of a future victory are squashed for all times.
That day is coming…
I think, for starters, that by this time next week we’ll have a pretty good idea.
Secondly, based on the initial forays today with up to maybe a dozen tanks in a major push, and a few dozen assorted armoured infantry carriers of various sorts, I think we’re going more towards the 6k than the 60k actual combat troops.
People in the west forgot that the US cold war forces that won the 1991 desert storm (against 3rd rate iraqi military) are now gone. Back then the US military are geared to handle Soviet incursion into Western Europe , but since then US and nato allies draw down their military into a hyper focused light infantry commando types that heavyly dependant on air power to succeed.
these light infanty + airpower work well on the bush wars against natives and insurgents but they are useless against peer level enemy. Today’S US military cannot even handle ground invasion of Iran let alone other nations like russia or china.
and today’s tooth to tail of western forces are totally in ruins as they are not the Cold war era armor / air / infantry but pure air and infantry ..
Very good point, that I’ve not heard anyone else mention or take into account. When watching the Ukrainian service members videos on telegram, there biggest issues revolve around lack of support in one way or another. Many above mentioned that it’s NATO doing the tail end support. That was my fist thought but I’m not so sure by the way they talk about them, as a part of “there” team that’s let them down. Also there would be alot higher casualties if they were serving in this role. Language would add complexity in fast paced operations etc. From the perspective of the clips it seems like there is no support once dropped on line. The Ukrainian combatants seem to have to go foraging amongst the population for food and complaining about having nothing and their support or relief never shows up. I’ve heard mention a couple of times, they get pin down by teams of rapidly deployable 2S12 “Sani” type mortars and abandoned. There are some clips where they start to make fun of Russian rations but end up liking them because of the huge quantities and the pack is an excellent diverse meal that they can even share there are so many things in a box. I Guess where I’m going with this is Ukraine doesn’t care like the U.S. or Russia because they didn’t earn them, build them etc. Like my favourite analysis Andrei Martyanov’s would prob says “The Kiev regime doesn’t do strategy, only PR.” Instead they wing it and expect there propaganda to fuel hatred sufficiently to overcome these “minor” details. In part expecting there soldiers to steal what they need off the civilians and Russians they kill. The Kiev regime often acts like a spoiled child. Each time they squander there military, mommy and daddy (vicky&Joe) just get them another better one. Being on the 3rd iteration I believe.
You probably won’t see this late entry, but based on my Angolan War experience and subsequent operational research background, the tooth to tail ratio is just a small indicator of the much more important logistic cycle or frequency. What you want your enemy to do is to exercise his logistics chain on a regular basis. This allows for reconnaissance forces to “follow-the-signal” allowing commanders to develop a time-space picture particularly useful in manoeuvring warfare. What I would suggest the difference is in Ukraine, is that the time-space picture may now be even more important, but for a more vertically oriented ISR (as opposed to a spatial ISR) and not so much for the tooth parts, which is mainly there to prompt the enemy’s logistic chains.
ever so obvious the war is over. of course, not my idea. picked it up on Judy Byington’s Restored Republic’s GCR update 6Jun23. You are just painting with fine strokes. written a book or two yet?
Sandy Rinaldi, Arkansas, US Army veteran 1971 to 1974, today 6 JUN 23
Spot on..In Vietnam we called it the ass in the grass headcount, coming at differently in that a Bn with a TOE of 575, can only put 400 men into the field at the tip of the spear at any one time…
Micheal Kofman, that fraud, says Uk has 3 corp making 18 BDE’s set aside for the Counter attack, thats approx. 75K men, ergo they must have at least that many in the logistical tail, I call BS…