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What is Russia’s near term objective in ukraine?

3 March 2022 by Larry Johnson 1 Comment

Impact of transition on public health in Ukraine: case ...

Watching the unfolding Russian offensive in Ukraine and the cities/regions they are targeting here is what I see as their short-term military objective–take control of the Dnieper River and secure the eastern half (the Russian speaking half) of Ukraine. There are ten key areas (going from south to north):

  1. KHERSON
  2. KAKHOVKA
  3. ZAPORIZHZHIA
  4. SOBORNYI
  5. DNIPROPETROVSK
  6. KREMENCHUK
  7. CHERKASY
  8. KANIV
  9. KIEV
  10. CHENOBYL

(SEE MAP ABOVE)

If all of these river crossings are seized and the Ukrainian Army is still east of the Dnieper that will be the end of the Ukrainian Army. The Russians will not have to engage in bloody battles to render them inert. With their lines of communication severed it will only be a matter of time before they have to surrender. Looks like the Russians learned some lessons from what the Nazis did to the Soviet Army when it tried to hold Kiev.

So far the Russians have secured Chenobyl in the north and are surrounding Kiev. In the south, Russia has secured the mouth of the Dnieper around Odessa, Kherson and Kakhovka. They also are likely to secure Zaporizhzhia within the next two days.

Kakhovka is the location of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, which the Russians appear to have captured tonight. The breathless media reports screaming that the Russians were attacking the nuclear plant with the implication that they were putting the reactors in jeopardy appear to be hype. The video of the action indicates that Admin building was attacked and on fire. While there is always the possibility that a stray round could hit one of the reactors, I believe the Russians are cognizant of that risk and taking the necessary precautions to avoid creating a new Chenobyl disaster.

Russia says it controls land by biggest Ukraine atomic ...
Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant

If Russia succeeds in securing the Dnieper River as its western “wall” it will have control of the Russian speaking Ukrainians that inhabit the eastern part of Ukraine.

While Ukraine continues to insist that Russia is bogged down, consider this–in one week Russia has secured territory inside Ukraine equivalent to the size of the United Kingdom (thanks to Patrick Armstrong for that factoid).

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. Ellis Aluyi says

    17 March 2022 at 11:27

    Thank you very much for the breakdown, over here in Germany the MSM are trying to over do themselves with foolish, outlandish and kindergarten reporting, these fools are almost crying on TV. Why no one said nada the last eight years when 14,000 Russians were killed? I dearly appreciate you my friend.

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About Larry C. Johnson

I am a bona fide Son of American Revolutionaries. At least 24 of my ancestors, men and women, fought to free the American Colonies from British rule. Some died for the cause of liberty. Though two and a half centuries have passed since my great grandfathers and grandmothers took up arms, the principles they fought for remain valid and relevant to the 21st Century. This blog is dedicated to the pursuit of truth without regard to partisan advantage. I welcome like minded patriots.

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