It is times like this that I wish I was sitting in front of my Top Secret terminal inside the Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility (aka SCIF) reading the latest intel on the battle in Ukraine. Something is not right. Early Tuesday morning Ukraine time, the U.S. Embassy in Kiev issued a security alert warning Americans to get out of Ukraine asap and to avoid taking a plane.
During my tenure with the Department of State’s Office of Counterterrorism (now known as the Bureau of Counter Terrorism), these warnings would only be sent out if we thought we had solid intelligence. And the Department of State, by virtue of being a sclerotic bureaucracy, would lag two or three days behind the date the intelligence info became available. In other words, if Embassy Kiev is putting out this warning on Tuesday morning then the the intelligence behind the alert emerged the previous Thursday or Friday.
The Kiev Embassy alert appears to be quite specific and certainly is urgent in its tone. Get out now. Reminds me of the scene from the movie GET OUT (Go to the 1:30 mark to see the relevant dialogue):
The Embassy made it clear that this was not a suggestion or even a recommendation. Russia was going to do something bad in Kiev and Lviv and other Ukrainian towns and Americans would be at risk. Run for your lives.
When I saw that alert I reached out to some friends still in the intel community. They are always careful not to violate their non-disclosure agreement, but I can get an idea of how serious the intel is concerning the threat motivating this reaction by State Department. My friends were scratching their heads. They had no idea what motivated this. There was no new intelligence signalling an impending monster air attack by Russia.
But it was not just State raising the red flag. The Ukrainian government, with Zelensky in the lead, were out in force of warning about impending doom. They cancelled all 24 August Ukrainian independence day celebrations and parades. They appeared spooked.
So what was up? Did western intelligence intercept valid Russian communications about a planned attack? Did the public warnings about Russian attacks persuade Moscow to call off the aerial assault? Was Russia deliberately leaking information in order to gauge western and Ukraine reactions? Or is the attack still to come and Russia is just biding its time watching gleefully as the west and Ukraine run about frantically waiting for the bombs to drop?
To reiterate a point I raised in my previous article–if Russia launches massive strikes on Kiev, Lviv, Kharkov, Odesa and Sumy this week, this will mark a watershed moment. It is a departure from Russia’s current rules of engagement to limit civilian casualties. There is little doubt among Russian experts that Ukraine’s bombing of civilian areas in the Donbas, the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and the murder of Darina Dugina have enraged Moscow. Think of Churchill’s reaction to the first Nazi bombing (a mistake by the way) of civilian areas in London in September 1940–he ordered retaliatory strikes on Berlin. Perhaps Moscow may take off the gloves and start hitting Ukraine and the west in their command and government centres.
My own guess is that the west is reacting to a Russian deception campaign. Why would the Russians do that? Watching the ensuing activity at various locations would give Russia a better idea of what to target in the future, for example. Or, it could divert the attention of Ukrainian military authorities from other areas in southern Ukraine where Russia appears to be stepping up operations.
One other peripherally related topic–the western propaganda campaign is roaring at full blast and Moon of Alabama offers up a terrific article detailing the craziness. Make sure you read it. Also, Andrei Martyanov offers a very credible explanation for the pace of the Russian offensive. Another must read.
Way less terrifying and dramatic, but interesting none the less.
Researchers discover sprawling pro-U.S. social media influence campaign
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/misinformation/researchers-discover-sprawling-us-social-media-influence-campaign-rcna44595
If it gets taken down of modified https://archive.ph/iW0Os
Very interesting. Thanks
” Common themes included criticizing China for its internment of Muslim Uygghurs and Iran for its human rights record.”
Now there is a surprise!!
The Ujghur claims are possible the most dishonest of the lot – and not a single one has been maintained for long, they keep abandoning one and start up with anothe.
Illegal American base in Deir ez-Zur (Syria) has been attacked, according to some media. If we use the approach of the Western MSM — the news should read:
“CNN and Wapo report that Americans bombed themselves in their own military base in Syria where they keep stealing (scratch that) — exporting Syrian oil”…
Maybe Darya Dugina’s terrorist murder was that last straw that broker the Russians’ patience and restraint. Maybe, just maybe, a lot of American, Uki, micro-Brit spooks, mercs, etc. won’t wake up tomorrow morning. Who knows…
Tomorrow some folks expect some out of the ordinary announcement by the Russia’s Duma (Russian Parliament). Maybe this will also include Kinzhal / Zirkon / Sarmat / Kalibr annihilation of the “decision centers”, most of which happen to speak English.
A neutron bomb would do the trick, but it would be out of character for Russia’s concern for civilians. I think the threat for all war wagers in northern Ukraine is very real for August 25.
Pakistan’s embassy in Ukr issued the same warning, per Intel Slava Z. Also, the at the end of last week, the Duma called a meeting for “extraordinary circumstances” for the 25th.
Zelensky will do anything. He is a kamikaze drone and a psychopath.
More like the US is planning some monstrosity which makes more sense considering Russia’s extraordinary meeting after the Us warning.
Another possibility – the Ukronazis and their puppet masters preparing for a false flag on Ukrainian territory. From the string of biolabs to the recent shell of nuclear facilities, no crime against humanity, or against the planet for that matter, is beyond them.
Good call, thought Larry would address that…
I think that giving the CIA the dual charter of ‘intel collection’ and ‘info war / malevolence against enemy states’ , has caught up with us. ‘Intel collection’ is the one that suffers.
Another brilliant read Larry.
You should really consider a career in the Public Health sector. A major Government run city hospital is the ultimate for intrigue, deceit and revenge.
Senior nursing and the labour unions sworn enemies of medicine and all against Admin.
Payback and score settling over a 5 to 10 year period is the norm.
You would get a seat at the main table.
Meanwhile, Putin is at that very same table with a fist full of Benjamin’s + 5 aces and he has already screwed the Director of Nursing.
As the Salty Bear, Andrei Martyanov would say, “the Russians have a plan for everything.”
Game on, who correctly reads the cards “The Red Coat Slayer or the Salty Bear.”
It’s half time and the Big Band is playing, the Finish Prime Minister is entertaining a crowd of millions of men (and several female friends)
We are living history of gargantuan proportions. The Last Empire dies a tragic death.
“It doesn’t have to happen that way. But it will.”
They PROJECT!! This means these evil SOBs people are planning a attack and blaming Russia. When they can’t win, they cheat, steal and kill!! Zelensky said he would get Crimea back “by any means necessary.” The US/EU obviously have too many skeletons in Ukraine to let go. THEY are plotting something evil.
Last Week. TASS reported:
Western countries are planning to plant a fake story claiming that Russia is allegedly unhappy with the implementation of the grain deal and is preparing an act of sabotage against a commercial ship, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wrote in a commentary.
“According to available information, the West is not going to settle for declarative statements, but is planning acts of provocation in order to demonize Russia in the eyes of the world community. In particular, a media fake is prepared that Moscow is allegedly dissatisfied with the results of the food deal on shipments of Ukrainian grain and is preparing sabotage against one of the commercial vessels,” the commentary said. The Ukrainian military is determined to stage a man-made disaster at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant between now and August 19, Chief of Russia’s Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops Lieutenant-General Igor Kirillov revealed.
My guess the bruhaha was all faux, simply cynically intended by the war party to instill fear.
Note the locals voted overwhelmingly in favor of neutrality and respect for minority civil rights in 2019. They must be restless these days. Belief in the Endsieg is waning.
Therefore, the war party needs to gin up the fear factor.
(Just a guess)
This is pure speculation on my part however I believe this woman involved in the terrorist attack outside of Moscow has outlived usefulness. I have lived long enough to understand that the CIA/MI6 has a rather large bag of dirty tricks that they sometime rely on. So it would not surprise me to read a headline concerning something about Russian secret agents killing an innocent mother and her 12 year old daughter in some major European city. That would a very convenient justification for the west to ramp up aggression against Russia. I think if we could ask the Skripals their thoughts concerning MI6/CIA operations they would agree that the bag of dirty tricks runs deep. Of course to ask them we will have to shout really loud because they are probably buried pretty deep in the dirt. That is just my thoughts on this whole Vovk woman thing.
Thank you Larry for another great article.
Craig,
Of course – thats a consistent pattern, when a operative outlives their usefulness they get wacked and the killing is blamed on that evil-mastermind-the-maddog-sinister- Pootin
The Vovk woman and her daughter are likely to get wacked on orders from the Washington War Party.
Most people don’t realize that Putin studied law before working for the KGB. Perhaps the Duma needs to declare Ukraine a terrorist country to legally allow Russia to hit decision centers. Funny how Russia would in that case care about domestic law, while here we have John Yoo to whom the law is an infinitely stretchable rubber band for the executive. I am still embarrassed about Guantanamo Bay – once we would at least have pretended it didn’t exist!
Could it have anything to do with Dugin’s daughter getting whacked?
Russian attack would be doubtful. It didn’t happen during the “independence day”, which apparently was what’s been expected.
It makes me wonder if what’s spooking the US isn’t hints of an incoming coup – if Zelensky is overthrown, Ukraine would be in turmoil, and Western agents and citizens might be in trouble.
I smell a false flag op in the making…
I assume military leaders in Kiev found themselves unable to gather a single military unit of 1000 good-looking men well equipped.
How to make a parade ?
It would be very embarrassing to comment a parade of less than 50 armored vehicles by these words : “here are [all what is left of] the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd armored brigade” !
So they had to cancel it, and to find a pretense with the help of their american masters.
What is going on in Ukraine? Quite simple. There is a war going on. And Clausewitz already pointed out that the best war plan is wastepaper on the first day after it begins. So if the actors (soldiers) don’t know exactly what’s going on, why should outsiders? For the outsiders like us, whether we admit it or not, it is macabre entertainment that is interpreted like a novel, a movie.
about AMRAAM in russian hands Spanish Air Force did it
https://www.lavozdegalicia.es/noticia/internacional/2018/08/08/busca-misil-perdido-disparado-error/00031533740651578930423.htm
sorry spanish
What is going on in Ukraine? Quite simple. There is a war going on. And Clausewitz already pointed out that the best war plan is wastepaper on the first day after it begins. So if the actors (soldiers) don’t know exactly what’s going on, why should outsiders? For the outsiders like us, whether we admit it or not, it’s macabre entertainment, to be interpreted like a novel, a movie.
Larry Johnson knows this, but he also knows that as a professional he had to rely on information (i.e., narrative ideas) to make recommendations. And we all know that we must rely on trust to function as communities. But when egoists put their private interests ahead of collective interests, the result is what we see today in the collective West. Inflation, recession, chaos. Because fiat money is based on general trust in the ruling elites.
Reality is only what we perceive with our biological senses. Everything else are more or less plausible ideas. We humans live with a complementary consciousness. A non-verbal (instincts, feelings) and a verbalizing one from which we develop narratives of our individual, as well as our collective imagination with which we identify ourselves.
Isn’t it already like 3rd such warning this year from US to its citizens in Ukraine?
BTW re Dugina, Sergey Kolmogorov said that Russian oligarchs were involved, plan was that Dugin’s death will enrage the public and put pressure on Putin or something (no proper subtitles unfortunately https://youtu.be/fBo-SzSFF6k)
When Kiev gives up the message to all US civilians in Ukraine (but lets face it none of them are civilians and not many are proper mercenaries) will be get out.
When Kiev gives up the last thing they will want is marching Azov supporters in the city.
So this points (for me) to the collapse/resignation of Kiev and a deal with Russia.
(No idea who can represent Ukraine in any deal, but this must surely have been in the works for some time. UN or Turkey I guess.)
Some opinions push me in this direction – IMO:
a) Ukrainian forces are far weaker than even realists think and far less motivated and that this is common knowledge in Kiev and Nato
b) Russia has achieved de-militarisation and almost de-nazification
c) There is much more debate about backing Ukraine within Nato than we can ever be told*
d) It would be a smart (if very hypocritical) move by Lynn Truss to jump ship, point out some realities in Ukraine and blame Boris. And the Dems in Congress and Senate need to pre-empt the same thing in November/January.
And lets face, Ukraine has lost badly, common sense is long overdue.
*Both in news opinion pieces and on say Facebook, the generally pro-Ukraine view has both become less common and also much more aggressive as the few still in double their efforts (yesterday was the first time I’ve been compared to a paedophile on FB or been warned with a death clip, I guess the professional trolls have given up).
“There is little doubt among Russian experts that Ukraine’s bombing of civilian areas in the Donbas, the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and the murder of Darina Dugina have enraged Moscow. ”
Nevermind Moscow, I think western leaders and media editors are becoming a little embarrassed by now.
Personally I think Ukraine saying it is targeting the Civilian leadership in Donetsk is progress over just targeting civilians. Even if they aren’t targeting them very accurately. But for western media that is an open admission that they have never had to cover up before.
Hi :-))
It seems all too common these days, that writers fail to check their creations, before publication…….
For example, here are some errors I found in your excellent article ‘WHAT IS GOING ON IN UKRAINE–INTEL PLOY OR REAL THREAT?’ 24 August 2022 ……….
They are always careful NOT TO VIOLATE their non-disclosure agreement
and the west in their command and government CENTRES
Watching the ENSUING activity at various locations
western propaganda campaign is roaring AT full blast
Yours respectfully
Kevin :-))
Thanks. A good editor is always welcome.
Have you missed the massive build up¿ Russia has built three large offensive battle groups: south, center, north to unleash the dogs of war – 400-500 combat aircraft.
So Russia redeployed most of their air force, minus what just got blown up on a pair of commando/partisan raids? If you say so, minus any link to any report. Thanks. Oh, and, of course, that information is not even mentioned in the neocon ISW SMO update. I wonder how they missed that with all their sources.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24
I can only think of one reason to this desperate alarm. Considering the overpowering stupidity shown from US/UK/EU/neoNazi vermin, it must be about a false flag operation as great or greater than 9/11.
If so, it will be their signed self-destruction letter. The rest of the world, 85%, will say “So be it” and boom boom boom…
LJ, if you would permit a question on a totally different topic:
The subject of UFOs is now being taken very seriously by some in the U.S.
E.g.,
https://turcopolier.com/congress-admits-ufos-not-man-made-says-threats-increasing-exponentially/
If there really are such, the Russians should be seeing them too.
Are you aware of reports emanating from Russia (the Kremlin, RT, etc.)
corresponding to the reports in the Western media on this topic?
Or is this exclusively an issue ginned up in the West?
I have seen nothing on that front. Great question.
I can assure you that UFOs are a worldwide phenomenon. Valid reports have existed for decades from Russia to Iran to China to Africa to South America. This is not some ginned up info op by the US. This is a real thing.
Here is an RT article – https://www.rt.com/russia/557012-space-agency-chief-ufo-aliens/
All countries that have a modern airforce encounter UFOs and record them on gun cams, radar readouts, etc. Plausible UFO sightings have been recorded in times before airplanes, but in the last few decades onboard tech has enabled recoding of the events such that it is possible to exclude weather phenomena, optical illusions and that sort of thing as explanations.
Exhibit refers to a KGB UFO report – https://documents2.theblackvault.com/documents/cia/ufos/C05517761.pdf
Larry and Eric:
You might find of interest the question I asked here:
https://turcopolier.com/congress-admits-ufos-not-man-made-says-threats-increasing-exponentially/#comment-210683
Here it is again:
“Should the U.S. and Russia cooperate in gathering information about these mysterious observations?
I.e., establish a joint task force which would collect what is known about these things.”
TTG suggested China as another possible aide, but observed the mutual Sino/U.S. distrust.
I would think that all rational countries would be eager to create a standing international committee for the study and sharing of information related to these phenomena.
It is clear that whatever these things are, they are intelligent and they have capabilities well beyond any that we (= humans) do. We don’t know their motives, mission, timelines, etc. The Russian report I linked to in an earlier comment seems farfetched, at least in some aspects. That said, there are thoroughly investigated and apparently valid accounts of UFOs impacting US nuclear weapons installations. Some of what the UFOs do looks like classic military intelligence gathering and testing of human weapons systems capabilities. That is ominous if the interpretation of the behavior is accurate. Is humanity so crazy and petty that we can’t unite in defense of our species and planet?
There has been UFOs spotted in Russian AND Chinese airspace but neither country is saying anything………..at least not yet!
To paraphrase one Russian general, ‘they will NOT out-think us’
One of a common theme of this West versus Russia, using Ukraine as a meat for grinding, war is that Russia is 2-3 moves ahead of anything the West has thrown at her. This is not just annoying, it’s outright embarrassing for the ‘collective West’. This shows good knowledge of the opponents, good planning, and excellent execution, from the Russian side.
Based on that, I see no reason to have any alarm coming from Ukraine, UK or US taken at the face value, because it’s most likely based on false information fed by the Russia.
When something real will happen there will be NO alarm. (I’ve wrote something similar in Larry’s last article)
Do not wish to load up posts with links but this one really hit me with the absolute idiocy and naivety of this “key advisor” to blinky: it is certainly no wonder as to the sources of the complete failure of what passes for state dept “policy:”
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/08/24/how-the-murder-of-daria-dugina-is-a-wild-card-in-a-zero-sum-conflict/
Derrick Chollett, from the German Marshall Fund, a vipers nest of rabid anti-Russian neo cons:
“Listening to Chollet talk about what a strategic loss this war is for Putin, I was struck by how excited he sounded about that and by how youthful and naïve his excitement seemed. It would have been poignant if it weren’t scary. And I’ve seen no evidence that his boss at the State Department is more reflective than he is. Our foreign policy seems driven by two main impulses—macho posturing and virtue signaling—that work in unfortunate synergy and leave little room for wisdom.”
This coupled with the thug “toria” nuddleman’s rabid hatred leaves one with no sense that any “wisdom” will creep into the “thought processes” of state and cia.
“The Kiev Embassy alert appears to be quite specific and certainly is urgent in its tone. Get out now.” – It WAS. And why, what kind of intelligence it was? Obvious:
This warning/order appeared simultaneously both by Ukraine/Zeliboba and the US because they were expected Russian bombing of Kiev as revenge for killing Daria Dugina in Moscow. Both warnings appeared a couple days before the assassination was executed just as the Azov killer was “operationally ready”. Yes, Ze kIlled the innocent girl but the State Dep-t together with MI-6 and Mossad devised the “operation”. THAT is WHY. They knew that it was a “red line” and expected a bombing of the “decision centers” as promised. But they were wrong – AGAIN – and Putin did not accept their provocation.
Back to the past, not back to the future.
If at first you don’t suceed, try, try, try again – not forgetting to dress the window, or forgetting the salt on independent squares.
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217841.html
I’m really not sure, but only a short time after this article about telling Americans to get out of the Ukraine real quick, I see this news.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62679066
( Zaporizhzhia: World narrowly avoided radiation accident )
This raises suspicions.
If you take out the coolant pumps for the reactor core cooling for long enough then the powerplant will have a nuclear meltdown. Just like what happened in Fukushima. In Fukushima, if I remember correctly, the cooling was about 8 hours offline before the meltdown happened.
My suspicion of evil intent is caused by the article above.
Did some secret agency urge their people to get out beforehand, because they knew what possibly was going to happen beforehand?
Did they know a nuclear meltdown was possibly going to happen, because they were planning to sabotage the core coolant pumps?
Other explanations are possible, but I cannot rule this one out.
“Other explanations are possible”.
Some say “methods” should be redacted, oftentimes to conflate “interpretations” with “explanations”.