Are we witnessing the consequences of legalized marijuana causing contact highs among the intelligence community that surrounds Washington, DC? How else to explain the parade of political and military analysts now seized with angst over the growing gulf between what they claimed would happen to Russia in Ukraine and the stark reality. Hell, even the CIA is trying to figure out what went wrong with its analysis and is still getting it wrong. Remarkable.
The problem with the CIA is simple–when you prioritize hiring people because of their embrace of pronouns and degenerate sexuality over recruiting accomplished, genuinely educated people equipped with critical thinking skills, do not be surprised that the juvenile mediocrities perform poorly. How is a gender fluid “them” with no military experience and no foreign language skills going to predict the military outcome of a conflict where the attacking force is outnumbered 3 to 1?
Failure is supposed to be a great teacher. But that instruction only succeeds if the pupil is open to learning hard lessons. The CIA has become a purple haired clown show. Just take a gander at the of this article from the Business Insider–US intel officials admit they didn’t see that Russia’s military was a ‘hollow force.’ Here’s what they did see and how they missed it.
Russia is now a “hollow force?” The only hollow thing in this example are the empty noggins of the morons masquerading as intelligence analysts. Check out their excuses for getting it wrong:
- The Russian force the US military and intelligence agencies believed to be a near-peer adversary hasn’t shown up. The force that did appear had its main thrust blunted by smaller Ukrainian units.
- “What we did not see from the inside was sort of this hollow force” that lacked an effective non-commissioned officer corps, leadership training, and effective doctrines, Berrier said of the Russians.
- While US intelligence agencies misinterpreted the effectiveness of the Russian and Ukrainian militaries, they provided accurate information about Russia’s intentions in the months prior to Russia’s attack, which began on February 24.
- “When you deal with a foreign actor, analysts can fall prey to a number of mental traps, from confirmation bias, availability bias, or even favoring existing analytic lines over new information,” Michael E. van Landingham, a former Russia analyst at the CIA, told Insider.
But this is all nonsense. There is this thing called the internet. It actually allows an inquiring mind to go back in time and see what the CIA was saying in February and March. This is not my opinion. You may read the facts for yourself:
How US intelligence got it right on Ukraine–The CIA director, Bill Burns, a career diplomat, and his boss, the director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, a former deputy CIA director, came to office a year ago. . . Burns and Haines refocused on Russia and China, concentrating on collecting and analyzing intelligence on the authoritarian regimes of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. For the first time in a long time, American intelligence agencies were thinking strategically, looking out over the horizon, as opposed to reporting what happened five minutes ago. The result was a clear and prescient picture of Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine.
The Intelligence Community Hits a Grand Slam. Now, It Must Help Ukraine Win–The Biden administration is also entitled to some applause. It “flooded the zone” with authorized disclosures of intelligence prior to the Russian invasion. . . . The more recent disclosures were also designed as a deterrent, to get inside Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision-making process and perhaps cause him to think twice before hitting the “go” button. . . . The intelligence community along with U.S. military special operations forces must prepare to conduct and/or support a Ukrainian insurgency campaign. The model should be Afghanistan in 1980, just after the Soviet invasion. . . . At the same time, the intelligence community must — and will — look for and encourage diplomats and intelligence officers serving at Russian embassies abroad who are making the decision whether or not to jump from Putin’s ship. . . . The intelligence community will also watch to see signs that tens of thousands, or perhaps more, brave Russians are getting ready to take to their streets. . . . Finally, there’s the intelligence community’s support of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. . . . Zelensky vs. Putin. Leonidas vs. Xerxes. Will history repeat itself? Perhaps. But let’s hope that the new Leonidas lives this time to tell the tale. And that his people triumph in sovereign democracy alongside him. America has a stake in this fight. It’s time to make some history. It’s time to help Ukraine win.
Top American generals on three key lessons learned from Ukraine–“The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours,” said Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger. They “cannot explain why Ukraine is still hanging on. Why is that?” . . . . It took months for Russian President Vladimir Putin to amass more than 175,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. But since those forces mobilized on Feb. 23, the Russian military has been embarrassed by one logistical failure after another. Videos posted on social media showed lines of tanks and military vehicles stalled on Ukrainian roads, with no spare parts available to fix broken vehicles and no fuel to get them running again. Other viral videos showed hungry Russian soldiers who had apparently run out of rations accepting food from Ukrainians.
The ignorance of the U.S. military commanders and the oxymoronically named intelligence community is breathtaking. If you are trying to predict the outcome of a military operation there are, as Andrei Martyanov describes in his must read book (The (Real) Revolution in Military Affairs) key variables that must be weighed. One of these is the nature of the defensive fortifications of the Ukrainian army. For the love of God, the entire damn U.S. intelligence community had eight years to track and identify the formidable system of trenches, revetments and bunkers the Ukrainians had constructed. Then there is the fact that Ukraine’s army outnumbered Russia by three-to-one. In what drug addled universe does an analyst conclude and promulgate that a out-manned Russian army will conquer a country twice the size of the United Kingdom in four days?
Perhaps this was a deliberate straw-man strategy–i.e., play up the Russians as ten feet tall (knowing all along that they have the ability to eventually grind the Ukrainians into talcum powder) and then portray them as a weak, doddering power. Maybe the terrible analytical predictions were part of a broader propaganda campaign.
What I do not understand is why the technical collection systems at NSA and NIMA (i.e., National Imagery and Mapping Agency) apparently failed to identify the robust Ukrainian defenses? What should alarm U.S. legislators is that the CIA still does not have a damn clue about what is going on. Specifically, describing Russia as a “hollowed” out force is baseless nonsense. The complex military operations the Russians are conducting across a 900 mile front that stretches from Kharkiv in the north, thru the Donbas and then southwest to Odessa. Besides supplying ground forces with ammunition, fuel, food and medical care, Russian logicians also are feeding hundreds of thousands of civilians left homeless because of the fighting. Then there is the coordination of artillery and sea-based cruise missiles along with close air support from fixed wing and rotary wing air craft.
The CIA is learning the hardway the truth of Sun Tzu’s aphorism:
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
That is where the United States intelligence community is; it is ignorant of itself and the Russians.
One of the old intel codgers, Graham E. Fuller, who was Vice Chair of the National Intelligence Council at CIA back when I was an analyst, has it figured out. He wrote a piece sure to get him removed from woke Washington, DC parties:
The war in Ukraine has dragged on long enough now to reveal certain clear trajectories. First, two fundamental realities:
- Putin is to be condemned for launching this war– as is virtually any leader who launches any war. Putin can be termed a war criminal–in good company with George W. Bush who has killed vastly greater numbers than Putin.
- Secondary condemnation belongs to the US (NATO) in deliberately provoking a war with Russia by implacably pushing its hostile military organization, despite Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines, right up to the gates of Russia. This war did not have to be if Ukranian neutrality, á la Finland and Austria, had been accepted. Instead Washington has called for clear Russian defeat.
Contrary to Washington’s triumphalist pronouncements, Russia is winning the war, Ukraine has lost the war. Any longer-term damage to Russia is open to debate.
Sadly for Washington, nearly every single one of its expectations about this war are turning out to be incorrect. Indeed the West may come to look back at this moment as the final argument against following Washington’s quest for global dominance into ever newer and more dangerous and damaging confrontations with Eurasia. And most of the rest of the world–Latin America, India, the Middle East and Africa– find few national interests in this fundamentally American war against Russia.
Graham, I could not have conveyed the message with more clarity. You nailed it.
The 2 “fundamental realities” mentioned in the article are at odds with one another.
How can you condemn Putin for “starting” a war when the enemy pushed its hostile military organization right up to the gates of Russia?
Larry Johnson says
Take that up with Graham fuller. You have a fair point.
’twas a very interesting conversation with Scott Ritter the other day, thank you
Bear River says
If Mr Fuller runs for POTUS, any party from Green to Libertarian or either of the entrenched albatrosses he has my vote and monetary support.
seriously, excellent post.
Putin, it will be argued, was legally justified in the SMO under the Geneva Convention Art. 2.4 (Responsibility to Care), having strong evidence of continuing genocide and imminent annihilation of the ethnic Russian population of the Donbas. Therefore, I’d disagree with Mr Fuller’s first statement.
I think he’s making a general point about war as bad. In particular pre-emptive wars . Or simply drawing contrast with Bush.
Taken together he is saying war never good, no leader should start war, but unlike Bush Putin had reasons.
It may also be he believes that there may have been more options to pursue for Russia. Which I disagree with.
At least that’s how I read it.
Perhaps what is meant here is that, normally the knee jerk reaction to someone ‘starting a war’ or ‘invading’ an ‘innocent country’ –unprovoked, which is endlessly barked, such a person or country–the perennial big bad bully Putin is EXPECTED to be condemned. But fundamental reality #2 negates the validity of #1. At least, that is how I interpreted Fuller.
Anyone with any knowledge of the circumstance knows that the war was started by Kiev 8 years ago, it’s hardly innocent, it clearly planned to invade a country, LDNR, which it refused to even speak with in violation of the Minsk Agreements, and was already attacking LDNR with thousands of shells in the immediate runup to Russia’s SMO. And if Russia ‘started a war’, it would have given Kiev the “Baghdad” treatment.
My Comment says
You are right that those are contradictory but his approach strikes me as a shrewd debate tactic. Get Russian Man Bad out there early so you can then catch the other side off guard. If you are immediately labeled a pwn of Putin no one will pay attention to your argument.
Then with step two he starts dropping the hammer. “But Putin isn’t as bad as our man Bush” (who has been rehabilitated from being the new Hitler since he opposed Orange Man Bad.)
Then you can get into the reason these analysts are morons.
“Are we witnessing the consequences of legalized marijuana causing contact highs among the intelligence community that surrounds Washington, DC?
I would argue it’s something much stronger, like magic mushrooms. The intelligence community sees bunny rabbits, teddy bears, and unicorns jumping over rainbows. It’s like an episode of Mr. Roger’s: “What a beautiful day it is in the neighborhood.” lol
I’m more convinced than ever that the intelligence community has a life and culture and institutional purpose of it’s own, and it’s not about amassing operational and strategic insights. It’s purpose is to lie Americans into conflicts they foment when not creating the conflict, and then lie about the consequences. It’s always some invisible “analyst” that 4 and 5 star generals and so-called seasoned diplomats and political leaders relied upon to cover up their arrogance and incompetence.
The intelligence community is nothing more than a political obfuscation racket built upon omerta. These people can’t be so stupid. It has to be that their main goal is to create chaos so the oligarchs can benefit from it. You see the oligarchs are ANTIFRAGILE, they win whether or not we lose.
you are confusing intelligence analyst who use data from US data collection agencies with “analyst” or propagandist whose job is to spread FUD in the media narrative. Oligarch ? what is that ? create chaos ? you are making up nonsense
What’s the difference in analyst and propagandist these days? You make no sense. As if you never heard of divide and conquer, that is about creating chaos. Iraq is chaos, Syria, what are we doing there arming Isis and al Qaeda? Chaos. Resuscitation of opium production in Afghanistan, chaos. War in Yemen, chaos.
Get it now?
i watched you posted fake news before , if you are trying to spread FUD or just trolling this site the just go away. Your post showed a broad brush of events spanning multiple region and in different timeline and totally unconnected , typical of someone either trolling or spreading disinfo. And your laughable “muh opium fields” nonsense conspiracy claims lol
grow up and post real stuff instead of constantly post fake news and nonsense
Complacency is the refuge of fools. They are used to being flat track bullies. I also think Nuland and Blinken were desperate for this conflict regardless of intelligence reports.
And heads of intelligence organisations like military want fat juicy Washington jobs and to be invited to the right parties. So maybe some intelligence is weeded out if it challenges politicians. Miley, Comey all had the own agendas.
Has the CIA, FBI and military leadership been coopted by the democrats or have they coopted the democratic party. And to an extent the republicans. Which is tail and which is dog.
Give them also their dues
They have destroyed Nord steam, dragged Europe from Russia and China, re-established Europe as a vassal client state alongside side kick UK. They will get whatever oil, gas, minerals are in whatever is left of Ukrainie. They get to blame Russia for chaos. They sell weapons. They can play with economics and reshape what they can
I don’t think they see a problem at all. They see wins.
They don’t see Russia striking US. As for the Europeans. Well that may be the end of the euro. And US can always print more free digital dollars and get interest via IMF or other. Rebuilding and arming Europe is super lucrative. Plus new NATO members. Bonus. Europe doing the dirty work. Big bonus.
So nothing has gone wrong in their view.
Next up. War with China. Selling weapons to Asian vassal state.
These guys aren’t quitting any time soon.
what would be the volume of weapons “the vasssal state” will be able to consume before the inevitable end? It’s not the size of two UK’s mind you…
if US aka NATo cant handle russian military , then they have zero chance handling chinese superior and modern military. If US cannot handle economic crash due to their foolish russian sanctions , then US will suicide itself by making war with china who practically sustain US economy with goods
Larry Johnson says
You’ve got it backwards. Russia’s army and air force are more advanced than China’s. China just has more soldiers, sailors, etc.
One thing China lacks is officers and soldiers with actual combat experience. Beating up old ladies and Falun Gong doesn’t count towards combat experience.
I think the tone of the article is too harsh and judgemental. Remember, diversity is our strength! 🙄
take your grief to your supervisor in that troll farm you work
You dry humor is too subtle for some on this page.
Even when Soviet Union was disintegrating the US “intelligence community” was squealing that Reagan’s attempt to help them disintegrate was dangerously pushing for WWIII. Now the same “intelligence community” is squealing again… This time in opposite direction. And the real danger this time of sleepwalking into WWIII doesn’t even delay then for a sec. I guess they all are first, and second, and possibly third the dems operatives with stupid agenda, and only in the distant fourth (or fifth) are mediocre analysts.
the cold war US military and intelligence apparatus are far more professional than the current degraded military and intelligence.
witness the coldwar US military in desert storm , thats the fruit of coldwar shown on the desert of iraq. Alas they are all gone to be replaced by go fast gucci sunglasses special forces super soldiers who look so good on camera
I submit we’re also witnessing the conundrum of the so-called “Information Age.” I see the “Age” as an oxymoron because people have become less informed, poorer critical thinkers, as information is amassed and disseminated in greater quantities. The other phenomena is how the information/data collected on populations is used to arm the Information Wars waged by intelligence officials to control and shape-shift the populations political and cultural attitudes including their willingness to challenge the status quo.
While America, the West, and many other nation’s populations are dumbed down, pieces and bits of information escape the Full Spectrum Dominance of the intelligence community and Big Tech’s censorship and cancellation, consequently a Larry Johnson, Scott Ritter or Graham Fuller falls through the cracks. Another phenomenon is populations become increasingly distrustful of so-called institutional sources, particularly when time and again they are discredited.
This conflicting and confusing “realities” are often too much for the average person to handle. I contend among the many reasons drug and alcohol abuse is sky-rocking is the inability of people to reconcile the opposing worlds they find their minds residing in. Another contributing factor to drugs and alcohol is the lost of faith in traditional institutions. Hopelessness and despair also arises from the inability to no longer turn to once trusted institutions, like government, the church, the courts for answers particularly foundational answers, principles and beliefs that bind society’s fabric. I mean how can public not go stark raving mad when a Supreme Court Justice can’t define who is a woman? How then will she define the 4th or 5th Amendments to the US Constitution?
Some “Information Age” we live in.
Rick Merlotti says
“I contend among the many reasons drug and alcohol abuse is sky-rocking is the inability of people to reconcile the opposing worlds they find their minds residing in.”
Very astute observation. We have a whole population atomized by fake news, fake history, no national unity or positive “mission statement” for the country. Our political leaders are craven, mendacious money-grabbers, doing the bidding of the transnational financial oligarchy which has no interest in the welfare of common people of any nationality, race, creed, etc. In fact, they actively seek our destruction.
What I don’t get, again as a lawyer, is the failure or attitude (I don’t know which) regarding oppositional research.
From the day an answer is filed in a civil case, the opposition research begins in earnest. We file requests for admission, interrogatories, requests for production of documents, get sworn witness statements, get the right to enter premises and take depositions, etc. And there are explicit rules for how and why to do every one of these things. Even if we trust our client, we know our client does not know all we need to know to prepare for trial.
Like it or not, this process (which we are all expected to know) makes us oppositional research experts no matter who we are. Couple that with the fact that we study so many cases of both governmental and corporate wrongdoing, it should make every lawyer as suspicious as hell about what he hears.
So I am constantly baffled by this “we couldn’t have possibly known” crap we get all the time. If we were serious about opposition research, we should be fooled rarely.
Larry Johnson says
You are dead on right. One of the shortcomings is the over reliance on classified material. If something is unclassified it generally is ignored or not trusted. Crazy.
Sir you are assuming that these analysts want to know the truth. In group think, the result is already decided, then it becomes the duty of the analyst to collect the data or info to justify the result what ever it might be. Like WMD in Iraq, Russia gate to take down Trump, Russian disinfo about Hunters Lap Top, Carona and the lock downs (never mind the lack of talk regarding safe gaurds or possible cures etc the list goes on). The beauty of it all is unquestioning subservience of the American populace. My gut feeling is the reckoning is coming with empty shelfs in supermarkets, pending recession, raising inflation. Growling stomachs have a great curative effect on the willful ignorance of the populace. Thanks
There was a bloodless coup in America. Sanitised by courts. Like in Canada opposition was brutally crushed. The ordinary citizen is pretty helpless when there is no choice and all parties form a mafia wit organs of the state.
How do ordinary people accept this? I don’t think they do. They just can’t do much about it other than vote, protest or fight.
Vote for who? Protest and be punished. Fight with what weapons and against which enemy.
…he great Beatle’s (actually, McCortney’s) hit – Back in the U.S.S.R. …
I keep saying this but I will repeat it again. If we all got up off our lazy asses and participated in the primaries what exactly are they going to do about it? Violent revolution and even street protesting are not necessary.
You assume we have verifiable elections. We have not has any such thing since the advent of computer tabulation of the election results.
It doesn’t look like we are going to be able to vote our way out of this.
The recent Georgia primary being exhibit A.
The Republican leadership [sic] has gone out of their way to ignore and cover up the rampant fraud in November 2020. I think it is because the top GOP people like McConnell, Graham and the rest are as deep into it as the democrats are.
Raffensburger in GA polling at 20%, grabs 75% of the vote? The voters are intimidated into silence.
Frankly the only step I see is to encourage the state process of nullification of federal dictates.
I see Texas is floating the secession thing again, unless Austin gets a wiped out by a tornado it won’t pass. Soft secession is a better bet.
Being in Florida I think we can get behind DeSantis to start canceling federal EOs and other unconstitutional edicts then dare them to do something about it.
But voting, doubtful it will change much.
Yeah. “Intelligence to fit the policy.”
I wonder if our mostly Ivy League analysts can sufficiently research a situation to fully develop arguments and counter arguments. I studied history at my now disgraced university; I was required to both recognize differing points of view and their arguments. One professor beat into that history is “his story”; everybody has his tale and explanation of events. I had to learn them, particularly regarding the War Between The States.
I suspect that this level of intellectual rigor is gone. At my alma mater I imagine the History debates are no more than Marx vs Lenin vs Mao. Nothing outside that. I reckon this is common.
I read that Brennan wouldn’t hire State U grads into CIA. Having nobody from outside the Ivies could easily turn a division to massive group think. Add to that rice bowl protection, brown nosing and all the other foibles of a massive bureaucracy.
If you practiced law like this lot analyses polmil events, you’d be in deep kimchee.
Be sure that somewhere in the bowels of DC is a group of junior analysts and military than do know what is going on and talk about it among themselves.
After following the Syrian tragedy up close, it became impossible to take any in intel/military seriously, at least their public statements.
Which leads me to wonder aloud how much smoke was blown up the Ukrainian leadership’s derriere from the beginning of the coup. Other than the country and culture, how different were the Ukies handled from say intels creation of al Qaeda or the Iraqi Sunni Islamic State in Syria?
From afar it sure looks to me like the same playbook:
1. Select the country to invade
2. Identify, then build “special” relationships, especially with the leadership, with those on the fringe of said country
3. Dazzle identified fringe group with American grandeur – weapons, $$$, drugs, women, more $$$…toss in a local millionaire/billionaire to fund the schtick…
3. Convince said fringe group the U.S. empire will be behind them all the way if they partner with them to overthrow said countries leadership. We’ll do A if you do B
4. Government is overthrown whether by a bunch of cave dwellers who won 20 years later, or hard right rag tag group of wanderers who have yet to be entirely defeated or a bunch of offspring of nazis.
5. Leadership is overthrown and whoola U.S. builds military bases, secret bio-labs, the museums are always raided, all natural resources are gobbled up by the cronies, a puppet government is installed and the fringe group typically gets left in the dust.
Just ask the Kurds…
The only thing different with Ukraine is Russia being their next door neighbor. The coup could not be complete without those Oblasts Russia has been fortifying for eight-long-tragic years and of course, the return of Crimea.
This standoff was going to end one day come hell or high water. Intel and military knew that. So some dunderheads in Crystal City and Langley put on their AI dunce caps, rubbed two thoughts together, and decided the Nazi offspring would serve their purposes beautifully and they did serve the intel/military beautifully.
Intel/military blew their smoke and the Nazi offspring inhaled. They believed what they were being sold b/c they had ample opportunities to consider other options during the four years Trump was in office. Nope. Instead they waited and allowed their countrymen/women to become cannon fodder for a military folks in Washington knew unequivocally would wallop them. I guess what the U.S. brainiacs really needed to learn from all of this mess was how mighty the Russian military really is. Something tells me the U.S. intel/military have learned that they have met their match.
Bottom line – The Nazi’s got played just like al Qaeda and the IS.
As for intel/military not knowing the strength behind Russia and her military, well, that’s quackery with some serious lips moving there b/c heaven forbid the Nazi’s catch onto their being used as pawns on the grand chessboard of globalization.
The rest is history, that is unless you want to turn your attention to the U.S. and the fringe group Antifa.
Can you elaborate on Antifa
You write really well. Guess why Garland was in Ukraine? (I didn’t know I am too naive). He’s there to tell his counterpart that “the US will hunt down every Russian war criminal like we did the Nazis.” This insane irony has to be from divine sources — it doesn’t take much to see the carefully positioned corpses at Bucha was a work of art by the Ukrainian Nazis. I can’t believe we are run by these clueless people. We are like North Korea or the Old Soviet Union except Merritt Garland believes his story lines. How did this happen? Was I asleep for 20 years like Rip Van Winkle. Larry’s idea of a marijuana cloud may be correct.
“I can’t believe we are run by these clueless people.” – and yet, you are, indeed. And looks like you will be.
As for the Old Soviet Union – ha… dead on spot. Looking from over here – it’s hard not to see the resemblances of that. What’s worse though – imo – when (not “if) the time comes, you won’t have an U.S.of A to come and flood you with Bush’s legs, FMCG and movies to distract your attention from the potentially “bad behaviour”. And with the number of guns you guys have on hands – well, be blessed….
It is important for you to understand that it’s all about equity and inclusion. How many BRGFPOC* is Russia bringing to the operation? Why, few to none I’ll bet.
All they have is gruffy cis-gendered and those awful smelling Chechin Spetnaz in ugly footwear.
None. Russia does not allow females nor active gays as combat troops and the number of blacks they have is zero. When I saw the Ukrainians coming out of the steel plant included females I thought well they are doomed.
Yeah well just wait until the Russians encounter the 69th Intersectional Mechanized Dilfo Battalion, aka ‘Bidens Battling non-Binaries’.
They will be in for a rude awakening.
Rick Merlotti says
That’s a nasty alarm clock.
“Russia does not allow females … as combat troops.”
Russia was the first nation to allow female combat pilots during WW2 … look up the ‘night witches’ and the teenage girls who manned the flak guns and fought German panzers to the death at Stalingrad are legendary.
The night witches were especially brave and effective pilots … the Germans were terrified of them. The Germans weren’t too happy to be fighting women however … they executed every one they captured … eventually.
Today women are currently restricted from front line combat occupations but there are 44,000 of them serving in all services … if they mobilize expect that to change.
“What we did not see from the inside was sort of this hollow force” that lacked an effective non-commissioned officer corps…”
The US military has been studying their Russian counterparts for the better part of a century. How could a LTG in the US army not know the Russians don’t have an NCO corps of career soldiers like the US? Perfectly assinine.
I’m sure what is truly scaring the Biden administartion and the rest of Nato is one question:
When does Russia put its LGBTQ soldiers into combat! That’s got to be keeping a lot of administraton officials up at night.
I guess there’s one person who can give you a complete and sound answer to that question. Go ask Ramsan Kadyrov.
The funniest thing is this excerpt:
“The intelligence community along with U.S. military special operations forces must prepare to conduct and/or support a Ukrainian insurgency campaign. The model should be Afghanistan in 1980, just after the Soviet invasion”
Bitches, you want to create another Al-Qaeda? Again? haven’t you fucking learned anything. And this time, a nazi Al-Qaeda? What kind of shit is this “intelligence community” smoking?
Larry Johnson says
Nope. Flat learning curve.
Rick Merlotti says
If you understand that whole point is chaos in the cause of destroying the Westphalian Nation-State system, then it makes perfect sense. The transnational financial oligarchy doesn’t need your steenking badges.
that comment was so hilarious , US ‘special operation forces’ are glorified hollywood heroes that in reality cannot operate without massive support from air strikes to logistics. Try doing that in ukraine and the overhyped SOCOM will be massacred enmasse. It is different using special operation troops as scalpel and spear point during insurgency where they control air supremacy and enemy lacks modern weapons , it is different kind of war when the enemy possess modern weapons and ISR capabilities
Some are trained to do FID/force multiplication and true “partisan” type stuff, but the attrition rate would be high in a geography like Ukraine (v different from mountainous places, or jungles), for the most part.
you’re wrong speaking in future tense. They’ve done that already. I’ve mentioned above a video with Larry Johnson and Scott Ritter. See where NLAW’s and Stingers will surface in a not so distant future…
The problem with that is the Soviet backed regime in Afghanistan lost popular support. I highly doubt that an insurgency can gain anywhere near that level of support, at least in the Donbass. Lviv is a different matter.
I read fuller’s post and disagree on his 1st point of his so called fundamental. He is trying to sound patriotic by accusing putin as war criminal while his 2nd point explained why putin did it. Very stupid fundamental assesment from fuller , but thats to be expected from fuller as ex intelligence. This is his loophole as not to be accused as putin’s lover or something
El artículo es fantástico, Larry.
Mi más sincera enhorabuena.
Una pregunta directa;
¿El siguiente paso de Rusia debe ser necesariamente eliminar de una vez por todas los sistemas de telecomunicaciones?
Esto o inundarlas con desinformación.
Most of the “analysis” was influence ops/psyops/active ops – call it what you will.
The real experts know what the deal is: the goal of the MSM is to create and control a narrative for those who *don’t* know what the deal is, i.e., most Americans (and Ukranians).
It’s as simple as that.
So let’s play Devil’s Advocate now: say the US/UK/NATO narrative is ultimately proven wrong. No problem: then start the blame game – we should’ve done this, that or the other. It was the Dems/Republicans/Pentagon/CIA/State/Dept of Agriculture/CDC/Bureau of Indian Affairs – whatever, whoever, that prevented us from doing it right, and so on.
Ok, you might ask, what if folks still don’t buy it and keep pressing. Then, simple, shift the attention: I don’t know, arrange for a 2-hour live interview with Ashley Biden on all the major broadcast and cable networks where she reveals all. // Upload all the videos ever taken at any/all of Epstein’s homes/residences/properties/islands to YouTube. Whatever, the American public will forget about Ukraine in a New York minute.
Nah. They will just start a congressional inquiry lead by And Schiff the Quad and bury the report. Who can resist his quivering lower lip as he reads report exonnerating everyone.
Dazed and Confused might not be correct movie reference. I’m thinking Dumb and Dumber, or maybe Dude, Where’s My Howitzer?
Correct. All it takes is common sense it does not take Oxford college degrees to do good intelligence work. Let’s pick Bucha now why would the Russians make sure all the evidence was neatly on display? Neatly too obvious arranged evidence should ring a bell right away. One of the faked gas attacks in Syria had the cannister land right in the middle of a well traveled street how convenient. Postol a professor at MIT who did work for the Pentagon on effects of missile attacks analyzed it — he went into weather reports to get the wind speed and so forth. It was faked his analysis is interesting you don’t need a degree from Yale to appreciate it.
I can tell you Oxford degrees don’t necessarily correlate with sound intelligence work.
Do you have a link to Postol report by any chance?
Also read how the CIA’s Ivy League twits were taken for ride o the tune ofmat tens of millions of doll
Also read how the CIA’s Ivy League twits were taken for a ride to the tune of tens of millions of dollars by Reinhardt Gehlen and his ‘intelligence’ network for information he just completely made up regarding the Soviets.
Eric Newhill says
I’m pretty well convinced that beyond the usual group think type phenomena, the intelligence agencies have a reasonably good idea of the facts on the ground. All the happy BS, in my view, is for controlling the domestic population, which is, as a result, de facto living in “the Matrix”, but worse. In addition to using the publics’ consciousness as an energy source, they also appropriate the publics’ hard earned money.
Then again, if they’re giving preference hiring to transgenders, maybe the whole bureaucracy is delusional after all.
Eric Newhill says
I think it’s both. The reality masters hire the delusional. A staff prone to believing delusions is easy to control just like a population. The masters just reprogram them when the original memes are out of date.
Covid controlled frustrated population, full of emotion, questions, redirect to old triggering enemy Russia. Nothing new there.
What’s new is the extent of complicity by MSM, all organs of state, opposition and social media. Contrast Iraq war 2. Where are anti-war? They have done a total takeover post covid conditioning and russiagate.
In general D&I has created a dumbed down everything in our country. Nasa no longer gets the best talent they get the best females and blacks and other non whites. And so it goes in absolutely every crook and corner of our society. When I graduated from MIT it was 10% female — it is now 50%. It has been massively dumbed down. Lindzen (the climate denier) of fame said we (his atmospheric and earth science dept) used to get bright kids from the over flow from physics and engineering now the quality of our students is very limited in ability. That really is the core problem with everything the intelligence services even the assemblers at Boeing are D&I. The thing these dumb people do is insist on using models for everything the models are always wrong be them about covid or russian conquest times.
This is nothing to do with it. You are distracted by nonsense. None of these are causes of what is happening. All generals and intelligence heads and defence secretaries and sec of state and president are white males. Who you gonna blame now.
Slap your behind and look a bit deeper than the smoke screen. Who actually has power, who is actually calling the shots, and why are they doing it.
White makes excluding Austin. But he’s not making any decisions.
Azov are also white males. How are they doing?
You also do realize that by giving the extreme left the appearance of what they want, BLM, Trans-extremists, those in power destroy the intellectual left, the left that actually was anti-war, capable of being objective, reading hard stuff and having real values.
That left was a counterbalance and a threat to what is happening now. Amidst all this extremist leftism, the intellectual left that played a vital role in debate is finished. So that unbalances society and pulls things to the extremes.
So you have almost zero intellectual left, lots of noisy extreme left, very little intellectual right, but it’s there still and a growing extreme right.
So now everyone is focused on the wires social shit and no one is listening to the actual people with knowledge and values. Perfect.
A large part of me thinks that the intelligence community cannot be this ill informed or unable to assess information. They surely cannot believe what they are saying. But then I see what is happening and the governments of the west sure are acting as if they believe this nonsense. It is as if they are in a virtual reality world.
Agree fully too with the comment about the playbook and lack of a learning curve. I guess you can always find a bunch of local elites that can be bribed to do your bidding. It never works, always wrecks the country and the elites concerned either end up as rich emigres or destroyed when things unravel. But the interventionists just move on to the next country in their unending pursuit of power, with continued military industrial complex funding that the US taxpayer ultimately pays for.
I watched General Petraeus (Betrayus) last night sit there on CNN and say “We are in an endurance test — the Russians are losing more dead troops per day than we did in the worst month of Iraq or Afghanistan how long can they last? We in the West are in an endurance test to see how long we’ll be motivated to supply advanced weapons to Ukraine that will allow them to win.” “The Russians fire enough artillery to turn towns into rubble then they occupy the rubble” Where are the videos of Russians hauling hundreds of corpses off ? I’ve seen quite a few of numerous dead Ukrainians on telegram channels. Any way I kept thinking he knows better but this is a sales pitch for Raytheon. I don’t know our military may be so full of bias and wrong ideas supplied by lower level apparatchiks in the Defense Dept that they really believe the nonsense the spew out.
** Betrayus. Petraeus was convicted of suppling highly classified documents to his love interest while director of the CIA. He cut a deal or would have ended up in prison for years– Holder and Obama gave him a break.
No they don’t believe it.
They want to to believe they believe it.
What percentage of our government bureaucracy and Congress drink heavily? data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that shows the District of Columbia with a slightly higher percentage of adult binge drinkers (22 percent) as compared to the national average of 16 percent. The CDC classifies “binge drinking ” as occurring when men consume five or more drinks, and when women consume 4 or more drinks, in about 2 hours. The CDC’s Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System ranked D.C. in its “third tertile,” sharing a similar “dark red” ranking with North Dakota and ahead of only Nebraska at 22 percent and Wisconsin at 26 percent of binge drinkers.
The national average : Almost one-third of our population meets the criteria for an alcohol use disorder (AUD) at some point in their lifetime.1 Alcohol is one of the most commonly used drugs in the United States, with about 85% of people reporting that they’ve drank alcohol in their lifetime and over 25% reporting that they’ve engaged in binge drinking (achieving a blood alcohol content level (BAC) of 0.08 g/dL or higher) within the past month.
Alcohol can inflict lasting harm on your brain and result in shrinkage of the organ’s region known as the hippocampus. In one study by the University of Oxford, researchers followed participants for 30 years, tracking their drinking patterns and brain health. Participants in the study who drank 4 or more drinks a day had almost 6 times the risk of hippocampus shrinkage compared to nondrinkers.9 In other words, brain shrinkage was proportional to the amount of alcohol the participants consumed, and even mild and moderate drinkers showed more shrinkage of the hippocampus than those who abstained from alcohol completely.
Those who use alcohol excessively and for long periods of time also risk thiamine deficiency as a result of poor nutrition, which may result in the development of Wernicke-Korsakoff Syndrome (WKS), sometimes commonly referred to as “wet brain”. This condition can cause persisting mental confusion, eye movement disturbances, difficulty with coordination, and persistent learning and memory problems.7
Lastly, long-term alcohol abuse can also lead to the development of an alcohol use disorder (AUD), which may sometimes be referred to as having an “alcohol addiction” or “alcoholism”. An AUD is a compulsive, problematic pattern of alcohol use that persists despite negative consequences to a person’s health, job, and personal relationships. For a mental health professional to diagnose someone with an AUD, a person must meet at least two of the following criteria within a 12-month span:10
Spending a significant amount of time trying to obtain alcohol.
Experiencing cravings for alcohol.
Drinking while in situations where it’s dangerous to do so, such as while driving or operating machinery.
Continuing to drink despite familial and relationship issues caused by alcohol use.
Being unable to fulfill obligations at work, home, or school because of alcohol use.
Using higher or more frequent amounts of alcohol than originally intended.
Tolerance, or needing higher amounts of alcohol to achieve previous effects.
Being unable to cut down on drinking.
Continuing to drink despite negative physical or mental health consequences.
Avoiding activities that you once enjoyed so you can drink.
Experiencing alcohol withdrawal symptoms if you try to stop drinking.
So which drug is more dangerous?
Eol Awki says
Can’t say that I agree with Fuller’s 2-point assessment. Not only for reasons stated by other commenters but because he failed to lift his assessment above and beyond Ukraine to the foundational reason that Russia even considered invading the country – the outright and highly arrogant refusal of the USA and NATO to even seriously consider and debate Russia’s proposed agreement for European security. This was surely the last straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back as far as Russia was concerned. From this Russia finally came to the conclusion that NATO and the USA not only did not want peace but also the total dissolution of the Russian state, access to its vast natural resources and clearing the last obstacle to the containment of China and that they were going to use Ukraine as the start point.
I believe you simply can not properly assess the Ukrainian situation and Russia’s part in it without mentioning this hugely significant and arrogant slight on the part of the USA and NATO, especially if you are an intelligence professional.
Ritter was vocal on that. And of the latest – you can also watch Mearsheimer’s talk in Florence (EUI)
‘Whom the Gods would destroy; they first make mad.’
Rev. William Anderson Scott
Those with a functioning brain, could see that the USA and with it ‘The West’, was headed for trouble.
But now we appear intent on reenacting the last scene of ‘Thelma and Louise’.
I believe the US intelligence agencies know exactly whats really going on in Ukraine.
Americans are people of faith … they believe they are the best, most innovative, smartest country the world has ever seen with the best military the world has ever seen and they are evangelic about it.
Russia HAS to be inferior in every way otherwise what’s the last 105 years been all about? Seeing Russia beat the USA economically, diplomatically and militarily would be a crisis of faith and threaten the whole house of cards.
Eric Newhill says
Yep. I think you are right on target.
I think you are correct. The USA has never truly ‘lost’ a war. We’ve failed to achieve objectives. But, even in cases like Viet Nam or Afghanistan we withdrew on our own terms.
We have never had to ‘Sue for Peace’ and accept what terms an adversary would grant us.
The American people and I suspect even the majority of our intel folks, are unable to even conceive of such a scenario.
Chris Chuba says
“The computer models would have said Russia wins in 72 to 96 hours,”
So we concluded that ‘Russia failed’ based on our own modeling. There is not a single Russian official who claimed they were going to capture Kiev in 3 days. Hmm … either the Russians failed or we need better computer models. I am putting my money on the second one.
Computer models are only as good as the guys who program them. Russian military culture draws on 900 years of military experience and the Russians have fought over that same land many times and know every inch of it … as do the Ukrainians which makes this such a difficult nut to crack. You can see lots of the “great patriotic war” in both sides strategies although the politicians seem to be driving the Ukrainians tactics more and more as their situation gets dire.
The Russians have a history of being underestimated but also have a history of making unexpected changes of tactics and strategy that carries the day. Not to glorify warfare but it’s somewhat of a pleasure to see that this war isn’t dominated by the latest greatest wonder weapons … they have their place but a well rounded officer corp armed with a 900 year old bag of tricks can still trump them.
Pepe Escobar, geopolitical strategist: “The Empire of Chaos.”
Hey, while you good folks are talking about some military stuff in a far away place most people can not find on a map.
Today in the USA, Kraft’s Macaroni and Cheese is changing its name to, Mac & Cheese.
This could require a bipartisan committee and closed door court to be set up to investigate a laptop and Russian interference! Is Russian mustard at play here?
In other news over 1000 people died somewhere because of something in another place they still can’t point to on a map. NASCAR to look into new Mac & Cheese branding possibilities.
Now do you get it?
I’m in full agreement with Graham Fuller, except not with his #1: “Putin is to be condemned for launching this war …” Whereas our US has criminally mis-used the following pre-emptive criteria for our wars of choice, Russia did not, but acted correctly.
Whereas UN Charter Chapter VII Article 51 only provides for action after a nation is attacked,
imminent threat is used in international law as justification for preemptive military action. Zelensky Feb. 19 flat refusal of peace, build up of massive Ukraine forces in Donbass, the heavy increase of Ukraine shelling of Donbass, the request from Independent Donbass Regions for Russian assistance, and the imminent threat of pathogen attacks constituted in whole and detail an imminent threat. Details follow:
2014 – 2022 Army of Ukraine shelled Donbass killing 12-15,000 and injuring 50,000.
Feb 2015 – Kiev violates Minsk agreements, continues shelling Donbass.
May 2019 – US Rand Corp. think tank manifesto to destroy Russia
Dec 17 2021 – Russian written request for written security guarantees – drafts delivered
US & NATO refusal to consider such guarantees
US & NATO renewed intent to bring Ukraine into NATO
Feb. 17, 2022 – Ukraine shelled kindergarten in Donetsk
Feb 19 2022 – Zelensky rejected Putin peace offer if Ukraine agreed not to join NATO
Delivered from German chancellor Olaf Scholz to Zelensky
Feb. 21, 2022 – Ukraine increased shelling of Donbass by a factor of 100 within four days
February 22, 2022 – Donetsk intelligence: Ukraine planned invasion of Donbass
Massing of Ukraine forces in Donbass – “irrefutable evidence”
Feb. 23 2022 – Ukraine cleared minefields around Donbass, preparing to invade
Feb 23 2022 – Donbass Independent Regions requested Russian help
Feb 2022 – Kiev plans for drone biological attacks on Donbass and Russia – pathogens from Pentagon-funded biolabs
The CIA wants to appear weak. The CIA is far too advanced. Whatever they have us thinking right now is because they want us to be thinking it. The CIA wants their enemies to think they are weak.
Was it not Sun Tzu that said to appear weak when strong and strong when weak. Could it be that we are appearing weak on purpose?