World War III has started. I hope that more Americans are starting to understand that the war in Ukraine is not a battle between the forces of Kiev and the forces of Moscow. Ukraine is a mere proxy. Russia is fighting NATO and Russia fully understands this. Russia realizes it confronts an existential threat and is conducting itself accordingly. It appears that most Western leaders think Russia is bluffing and, if faced with enough international pressure, will back down. It is that kind of stupidity that makes global war a looming possibility.
Up to this point, Russia has confined its military response to hitting Ukrainian targets and engaging Ukrainian and foreign mercernaries on the battlefield. But recent decisions by the U.S. and NATO countries to send more weapons and vehicles to Ukraine in a desperate bid to stave off Ukraine’s defeat on the battlefield risks a dramatic expansion of the conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine.
As Helmholtz Smith notes in his latest post, the United States and Europe are scrambling to provide a new batch of weapons and vehicles (depleting their own resources in the process). It carries an air of desperation and the progress of Russia in the Donbas during the last weak is exacerbating their fears. I think Putin and his team of military leaders understand precisely what is at stake and are taking very visible steps to show they are preparing for the worst. The Hal Turner radio show posted this headline today:
The PANTSIR is surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system. Russia has several models, with the PANTSIR SM the most capable deployed system in its inventory. Russia is prepared for the possibility that Ukraine, with the encouragement of the U.S. and NATO, will launch an attack on Moscow with missiles or drones supplied by the West. If that happens, then that will mark a terrible watershed for an escalation in this war.
If or when a US or European munition hits a target in Crimea or Moscow, Russia will ratchet things up and will likely go after US or European targets in Ukraine. Depending on the severity of the attack, I believe that Russia would be ready to hit bases in Poland or Germany being used to train Ukrainian forces. Before they do that, however, I believe they would shutter the Embassies in DC, London and Germany and ensure that the West cannot take Russia’s diplomats and intelligence officers hostage. Worst case, we hit Moscow and Moscow hits DC. This could get out of hand very rapidly.
I am not trying to frighten you, but the way the West is reacting is not rational and certainly is not based on any strategic vision. Russia clearly realizes this is a hot war. The West still labors under the delusion that the U.S. and NATO are not combatants. Nope, they are just providing the tools, intelligence and planning that Ukraine needs to kill Russians. If this was a murder case, the U.S. and NATO could be charged as accessories.
I would ask those politicians and pundits in Washington, DC who are agitating for pouring more weapons into Ukraine how the United States would react if Russia was arming Mexican drug cartels with weapons that were killing American citizens? You know the answer. The American public would be howling in rage and demand retaliation. If you think that Russians, whose history is written in the blood of centuries of invaders, do not care about the threat that NATO presents on its western border then you know nothing of Russia’s tenacity in beating back such threats. These are very dangerous times.