There is still no consensus about the motive for Yevgeny Prigozhin’s and there is a lot of speculation. Some have posed the false dichotomy of having to choose “real coup” versus “pretend coup.” That approach ignores some troubling irregularities and facts, which point to a sophisticated double cross operation.
My friend, Steve Bryen, an old U.S. defense hand posted an excellent overview at his substack, “What Didn’t Happen in Russia — There was no uprising and Prigozhin couldn’t deliver what he promised.” Steve is still well-plugged into the U.S. intelligence and defense community and he drops a bit of a metaphorical bombshell by revealing Prigozhin was in contact with Ukrainian military intelligence:
To launch his operation, Prigozhin took a number of steps over a period of the past six or more months. Among these were constant, and provably false, accusations that he was not getting enough ammunition to fight in Bakhmut. Along with that, Prigozhin charged that the army leadership was corrupt, that they refused to defend his flanks during the Bakhmut operation, and that they were losing massively in the Ukraine war. None of these accusations were true. . . .
It turns out, however, there was more to it than that. Sources report that Prigozhin had been in touch with Ukrainian military intelligence (known as the HUR MO), at least since last January. Some sources say that he also flew to Africa, where Wagner forces are operational, to hold a meeting with Ukrainian intelligence officials.
Similarly there are reports that he also was talking to a number of special force units inside Russia, asking them to join him.
I believe that Steve’s sources on this are solid. Pay particular attention to the timing — i.e., a meeting in January. It was a month or so later that Prigozhin launches scathing verbal attacks on Russian Defense Minster Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. Also, according to documents allegedly posted to Discord by Airman Jack Teixeira, Prigozhin provided Ukraine/NATO with locations of Russian units in the Donbass.
This is strong circumstantial evidence that Prigozhin not only went rogue, he became a traitor. Let me make one obvious point from a counter intelligence standpoint — providing NATO with the locations of Russian units is the equivalent of giving Eskimos a truck load of snow in January. NATO’s robust ISR capabilities makes it highly likely that those locations were already known to the U.S. and European military and intelligence officers. This type of corroborating intel is what George Smiley, the mole hunter in the British TV series, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, called “fools gold.” It looks like the real deal but, when properly evaluated, does not tell you anything you don’t already know. It simply persuades those eager to believe to swallow the bait.
I want to suggest an alternative possibility — Yevgeny Prigozhin was bait. The Russian military and intelligence chiefs are not deaf, dumb and blind. Since the start of the Special Military Operation, Western politicians and pundits stridently have insisted that Putin is weak; Putin faces serious political opposition; Putin is terminally ill; and Russia is teetering on the brink of economic and political disaster. Here is former Ukrainian President Poroshenko throwing some shade Putin’s way:
Former CIA officer John Sipher’s silly analysis is itself evidence of why the CIA is a failed institution. He writes:
Like the Tsars before him, Putin has survived by a willingness to use force at home and abroad, and by maintaining an image of power. Over the past two decades, many observers have used the same phrase to describe Putin’s actions on the international stage — Putin plays a weak hand well. His bullying, threats and lies have protected him from those who might threaten his power.
However, like Tsar Nicholas in WWI, with his invasion of Ukraine, Putin foolishly turned over all his cards and showed his weak hand, seemingly breaking his spell of invincibility. In doing so he has allowed his enemies to better gauge their own strength and position. While it is not clear if Putin has gravely jeopardized his control at home, he has nonetheless weakened himself and Russia, and can no longer bluff that he is playing a winning hand.
I think the Russian leadership finally concluded that the West sincerely believed this nonsense and decided to send Washington and London their own version of Luca Brasi — a loyal soldier now ready to betray the family. You want a traitor? Here’s your traitor.
So far, Yevgeny Prigozhin has not suffered the same fate as Mr. Brasi. Instead, he returned from Africa to the bloody battle of Bakhmut, having assured his new buddies in the West that he was with them, and then began trashing Russian Defense leadership and tactics while passing “valuable” intelligence to his contacts in Ukraine.
Talk about titillating. Western political and intel chiefs in the know were quivering with the excitement of anticipating the moment when Prigozhin would make his bold move and the Russian house of cards would collapse. Who could stop the invincible Wagnerians led by Chef Prigozhin?
So we are left with two possibilities — Prigozhin flipped and decided to play for team Ukraine and team NATO or Prigozhin, a consummate actor, was a double agent who kept his colleagues in the GRU apprised of his plans and upcoming actions on behalf of NATO. Betraying Russia by becoming a Western agent — i.e., a guy who has agreed to spy for one or more of the Western intelligence outfits — is unpardonable. Guys and gals that do that are likely to suffer the same fate as the Godfather’s Luca Brasi.
When I step back and examine Prigozhin’s actions after the start of the mutiny, I am reminded of an actor engaged in improvisation. Just take a look at Prigozhin’s completely contradictory and provably false claims over the weekend about why he was leading the mutiny. First he said that Putin is a dupe who was fed lies about the unnecessary and illegitimate invasion of Ukraine:
Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin on Friday cast doubt on Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s justifications for launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, saying they were lies fed to him by the Kremlin’s top brass.
Russia’s Defense Ministry has been “deceiving” Russian society and Putin, Prigozhin said in an expletive-ridden 30-minute video posted on his Telegram channel. It has escalated his public feud with Sergei Shoigu, the country’s defense minister.
The Russian businessman, a longtime ally of Putin, has for months been intensifying his verbal barrage against Shoigu.
Then, two days later, he changes gears and insists it was just a protest:
Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said on Monday that a one-day mutiny by his Wagner force had been intended not to overthrow Russia’s government but to register a protest over what he said was its ineffectual conduct of the war in Ukraine.
In his first public comments since ending the mutiny late on Saturday, Prigozhin repeated his frequent claim that Wagner was the most effective fighting force in Russia “and even the world”, and that it put to shame the units that Moscow had sent into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.
Which is it? Protest or howl of outrage over heinous lies?
One more data point. David Sanger and Julian Barnes, writing for the New York Times, report that:
American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.
U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.
The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.
Got that? The U.S. knew in advance. Any chance the Russians had an inkling of what was afoot?
Some smart analysts argue that Russia would not engage in such an elaborate ruse because of the risks that it could go wrong or that it would portray Russia as vulnerable. A fair point. However, Russia realizes it is at war with the West, not just metaphorically, and that the United States and many countries in Europe are keen to see it ripped asunder. When an opportunity to blow up that meme falls into your lap, you take it.
Russia was able to accomplish several objectives during this double-cross mutiny. It moved troops to areas under the guise of countering the coup that otherwise would have drawn attention and possible attack if carried out during normal wartime operations. Vladimir Putin gained a better appreciation of his popular support. Not even the Communist Party, which despises Putin, came out to back Prigozhin. The West continues to insist that this was a show of weakness by Putin. Really? No political opponent of any consequence jumped on the coup bandwagon. The Russian people did not flock to the streets in an Orange revolution rush calling for Putin’s head. Just the opposite.
Let’s imagine an alternative scenario. There is a coup/mutiny in Washington, DC against Joe Biden. Does anyone really believe that the 50 Governors and all members of the Senate and House would rush to Joe Biden’s defense? I don’t.
A ruse is a ruse is a ruse. Prigozhin is not clever enough to do any of this. He is clever enough to appear to do all of this. Some people could no longer cheat or lie than they could run a 4 minute mile. Others could not stop lying. It is in the nature of the creature. He simply makes a clever enough fool that he is believable. He also does not fool himself. He knows his true loyalties, & how to disguise all. This is a well executed operation by a team that knew their targets.
Sandy Rinaldi, Arkansas, US Army veteran 1971 to 1974, today 26 JUN 23
If true then this would indicate the the FSB and GRU are also incompetent. Why did they give a pass to Prigozhin to talk smack about the Russian MOD? Shoigu and Gerasimov having to endure endless assaults on their reputations despite winning the SMO and inflicting heavy casualties on the UAF? Things don’t add up as Larry points out. There appears to be something else going on.
The big problem with this analysis is that if true then Putin is not being square with the Russian public. If there is a hidden plan at work then it had better work out.
Great analysis Larry.
Since the start of the SMO, Western Leaders has claimed that Putin was facing internal uprising.
Thus Putin concluded that the West really believed their own nonsense and decided to give them a Russian uprising via the double agent Prigozhin.
Prigozhin assured his “new buddies” in the West that he was on team NATO, by trashing Russian Defense leadership and passing “Fools gold” intelligence to his contacts in Ukraine.
Western leaders swallowed the Bait, hook, line and sinker, and the Biden Administration bragged for months about a pending Russian uprising that would topple Putin’s house of cards.
American intelligence officials briefed US administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials.
And the following Friday Prigozhin launched his uprising.
Betraying your Nation during times of war is unpardonable. (Military tribunal and execution)
So why didn’t Yevgeny Prigozhin suffered that fate?
Because he acted as double agent for Putin.
During this double cross, Russia was able to accomplish several objectives.
Russia moved troops to areas under the guise of countering the coup that otherwise could have drawn attack.
Vladimir Putin gained major popular support.
And NATO became the laughing stock among BRICKS Nations.
However, the West continues to insist that this was a show of weakness by Putin.
OH Really?
Agree! great analysis
Prigozhin was probably a double agent and received millions if not tens of millions of $$$ from Western sources, but its obvious in hindsight that his true loyalties lie with Russia and this coup was orchestrated with the help of the GRU. The aftermath and the sweetheart deal of life and enjoying his wealth in Belarus pretty much confirms this. If he wasn’t cooperating with Russian intelligence and really did try a putsch, he would be dead and his most loyal Wagner elements would have been hit with SU 25s and KA 52s. Langley and MI6 have pretty much figured out Prighozin played them to fund his retirement.
This is not for money, he is billionaire not in rubles but in usd.
His alleged USD wealth can be seized at any moment by the Western powers
I question that theiry. There are so many ways to shield money in any currency should one have enough of it. Just deal through UAE, advother simikar sophisticated banking/gold operations.
kicks n giggles may have been a side goal to the op.
There’d be no limits to the satisfaction they’d get from putting one over on American
“ intelligence” agencies
Yes, will be interesting to see how events develop.
One thing that continues to be mentioned is the downed aircraft and 30 crewmen killed, including by Bryen in his article that you reference. Still not aware of any confirmation or video showing the downing of any aircraft wreckage and casulties, or emergency response teams, or any first reponders. No video of firing of any anti-air weapons. Also, no MOD or any, including local population and police and fire responders confirmation. This isn’t real in the absence of such expected eveidence. Everyone has a cell phone, does anyone really thing that social media wouldn’t be flooded with proof – if there was any?
Prigozhin is a complex character. He has made many enemies that are likely to be looking to settle accounts. Now, he could turn up mid-July or thereabouts giving his distinctive ‘commentary’ as the ‘Musicians’ open a land bridge to Kaliningrad or dig thru the ruble of Kiev’s command centres, but not placing any bets.
Keeping him ‘under house arrest’in Belarus might have many people sweating…
This is far from over. Wonder if we will ever find out the story…
Correct. Andrei Martyanov also is convinced.
I just finished reading the latest analyses of Big Serge on the Wagner situation.
An interesting factual view and conclusion.
Compare this with your comments.
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-wagner-uprising?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1068853&post_id=131180413&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
His analyses I read with the same interests as yours Larry.
Big Serge is one dimensional in his analysis. Prighozin is NOT nor has he EVER been the real leader of Wagner.
Yes, it was a very good analysis. I have commented on his blog:
Very good piece, Serge! But I am still not convinced that this is an exhaustive analysis of the major possibilities. I agree with you e.g. that the likelihood of the revolt being a psyop from the start is low, and for the reasons you started. It is just too paranoid. Putin would never underwrite it. But the real question is when did the GRU/SVR got wind of Prigozhin gone really rogue and planning something really stupid. I don’t believe it was on Friday after watching his latest video. There must have been all sorts of intelligence, both human and signal that was pointing to some serious western actions via Prigozhin’s folly. At that point, the president may have agreed to let Prigozhin do his worst up until Saturday eve, provided he is well under control (чтобы от него даже муха не могла пролететь*, if you know what I am alluding to). I think it stands to reason that even with the negative optics, the harvest of the chatter within and without Russia would have been worth while. Again, I proceed from the premise that Putin is very concerned about the western penetration of Russia and hostile assets on its territory.
* so not even a fly could get through from him…allusion is to the order Putin gave Shoigu in the siege of Azovstal, in May last yesr
Imagine the problem of Russia playing Whackamole with Ukrainian agents in Russia.This OP most certainly caused all the moles to pop their heads up at once.What do you think of that?
Agree, and according to Andrei– LOTS of ” govt employees” bought tickets to Georgia, causing ticket prices to double– and they know who they are LOL!!– 5th and 6th column “patriots”
Zelensky and the Brits were (still are?)about to strike the ZNPP and then cry to the World ”Russia did it” just on time to hide the failure of the counter offensive (13.000 kia/mia to date in 3 weeks) and main purpose to ask at Nato meeting in Vilnius, Poland or some kind of coalition to enter Ukraine in a ‘peace’ mission( not new). Zelensky is blackmailing both NATO and UE to give him ‘garanties’ and express admission in both entities. Even Brussels refuses today for the EU but Stoltenberg neocon(he is from Uk controlled Norway a usual suspect in NS sabotage), still pushes for nato entry. Even Macron back down and wants Ukr in nato(Macron is blackmailed by NSA CIA MI6 ‘kompromats’ on cocaine use, sex behaviour, corruption, money laundering, massive fiscal evasion and possible pedophilia).
But suddenly tonight:
Strange US not standing with ukronazis projects to strike the ZNPP…
☢️🇺🇦🇷🇺The White House said that the United States does not see a threat to the Zaporozhye NPP from Russia
According to John Kirby, coordinator for Strategic Communications at the National Security Council, the United States has the ability to monitor the radiation situation near the station
The United States does not see any evidence that there is a threat of undermining the Zaporozhye NPP by the forces of the Russian Federation, as Kiev claims. This was announced on Monday at a briefing by the coordinator for strategic communications at the White House National Security Council, John Kirby.
“We have not seen any signs that this threat [of undermining the NPP by Russian forces] is imminent, but we are watching it very closely,” he said.
Kirby also said that the United States has the ability to monitor the radiation situation near the NPP, but did not inform about the current state of the radiation background. At the same time, on June 23, he also said that “the United States is not currently recording an increase in radiation levels in the area of the Zaporozhye NPP.”
Other statements from John Kirby:
▫️ The United States considers the situation around the PMC “Wagner” an internal affair of Russia and does not intend to interfere in it;
▫️ The United States positively assesses the contacts with Russia that took place over the past weekend and looks forward to their continuation;
▫️ The United States does not take any of the sides in the events around the PMC “Wagner”, but focuses on supporting Ukraine;
▫️ The United States does not see any intention of the Russian Federation to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Psy op of this week end unvoluntarily scared NATO…
GRU operation ”scare Nato” is no over and op SN reached his objective.
Thanks to usefull idiot double agent Mr P.
Better for nato to keep a moderate VP after all, than P, a potential psychopath (under lithium for his bipolar disorder type 1) with thousands of nukes in Moscow willing to nuke anyone in the collective West even for a very light reason.
No chance this criminally minded man played a double game. No way he was following a Kremlin script. It is utterly absurd.
Furthermore, his vicious, public attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov were clearly false accusations in the main, as the Russian Armed Forces have been developing steadily and technologically ahead of the whole world (Shoigu) and the military operation has followed the political decision-making accordingly, with the manpower and materiel required according to the current political decisions (Gerasimov).
It is obvious that the “wall of steel” the Ukronazis are facing in their offensive was not developed and put in place and executed by corrupt or incompetent men. And the overall prosecution of the war does not show a military plagued by the desease of deceit and manipulation.
The traitor’s slanders and outright lies – ammo, friendly fire, no murder of civilians for eight years (a wicked lie that betrays whom this man is with), own casualties – against those two men swayed many souls for a time, but the revelations of his hidden activities and motives and the appraisal of their true worth in this conflict will convince many more that a violent convict should have never been allowed to direct the creation of a military body with dangerously high capacity to challenge the state.
Mercenaries may be useful abroad, but they will be treacherous at home – sooner or later.
(The French Foreign Legion is “foreign” for two reasons: it accepts foreigners in its ranks and it can be used only in foreign parts – Russia take notice)
Okay. If what you write is true, then why was he still walking around free?
To avoid a bloodbath! And we can even speculate, with hope that it still sings. Exile in Belarus may not be exactly a golden exile. What strategic advantage does Belarus or even Russia derive from 8 000 troops in Minsk? Without your Commanders? On the other hand, Belarus is a territory fully controlled by the Kremlin today.
I agree, Larry. Putin isn’t the type to give him the Hunter Biden treatment if he actually did try this nonsense. Unless Prigozhin meets an unfortunate fate in the next short while, we can assume it was an intricate plan, in my opinion.
If not, it was truly serendipitous as assets got moved around, more intel was gathered on which Russians are friendly or not, Putin got a good bump going in to an election, and so on. Lucky for him Prigozhin attempted a coup. It all worked out so nicely…
If Prigozhin falls off a building, it could be that he was played by Putin, maybe not the other way around. I’m just looking at who came out the winner in all this. Putin. So, who was likely behind it all?
Agree! time will tell. Who was likely behind it all ?– the small island who (as Andrei says) still thinks it is important. lol!
He had the capacity to spill much blood, even if for a short time; that’s why Putin accepted the humiliation of conceden on the immediate state of affairs – and that was a concession as to his legal status as a rebel, not as to his blackmailing endeavours.
Long-term. however, the man if finished – as far as Wagner goes. That’s what transpires from Putin’s remarks.
(It does not seem sensible to asume that Lukashenko would accept a functioning Wagner – under the management of the same goon or otherwise – withing Belarus, as it would be like embracing an asp in one’s bosom)
Putin put a treacherous, greedy, loud mouth clown in charge of a high impact army and supplied him with weapons?
With out internal oversight?
Allowed him to trash talk the army in public?
Allowed him to (strategically) “retire” to Belarus N of Kiev?
Oppps all of a sudden…
“The White House said that the United States does not see a threat to the Zaporozhye NPP from Russia”. (sudden rush of brains to the head)
The inept clown show you are implying is the Ukraine and US.
“Russia bombed the Nordstream pipeline”
“A sailboat was used to bomb the pipeline”
“Russia bombed the dam”
“Russia wants to destroy the Zaporozhye NPP”
Desperate is the term. Grabbing at stupid ideas like bombing a NPP because they don’t have any good ones. I bet the phones were ringing all over the planet. Anyone dumb enough to bomb the NS pipeline could also be dumb enough to bomb a NPP.
You cannot act this stupid and not suffer the consequence of become “the problem”. That is where we are today, globally Russia isn’t viewed as the problem the US is.
Russia has acted with incredible restraint and avoided civilian infrastructure and casualties. They realize they get to pay for clean up once they take over.
This is a game of chess not checkers.
How long have you worked for the government?
This may explain why he’s walking around freely. The guy is very well connected within the elite circle of the US-dollar global network – 5th-6th columnists – which just like similar ones active almost in all other countries wield strong financial influence on government and business activities specially in Russia and also Belarus. Russia has a very large Jewish community that are well connected with the central command body internationally. These are tentatively culturally integrated within local the community/culture but just like the historic figure good old Judas Ikarious more often than not boast a much broader agenda example: control of all other countries central banks, media…etc. for the ultimate Jewish cause and control. Exactly like the AIPAC in the USA. Him walking around freely is similar to Hunter Biden walking around freely.
Just written on Telegram.
The Criminal case against the Wagner mutiny has been dropped.
During the investigation of the criminal case initiated against Wagner leaders and Mercenaries on June 23 under Article 279 for armed mutiny, it was established that the Wagner participants on June 24 ceased their criminal actions voluntarily.
In view of this and other circumstances relevant to the investigation, the investigators have dropped the criminal case,” said the FSB of Russia.
Preparations are under way to transfer the heavy military equipment of the Wagner PMC to the active units of the Russian Armed Forces, the Russian Defence Ministry has said.
why is prigozhin still free? as patrick lancaster`s sunday footage from the streets of rostov-on-don clearly shows, prigozhin is widely considered a veritable folk hero: the amount of support and admiration the wagner leader enjoys among the population is simply astounding.
therefore, double agent or not, any direct action by president putin against prigozhin (at least at this point) would obviously be very ill-advised and seriously jeopardise putin`s own popularity.
patrick lancaster, rostov-on-don, sunday june 25th:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Using Churchill’s threefold schema as a guide, let’s look at prominent alternatives: (1) Prigozhin went off the reservation for reasons of his own, however misguided; (2) Prigozhin was in cahoots with foreign agents, but the plan flopped; (3) Prigozhin wittingly played, or was unwittingly maneuvered into, a double game, with the Kremlin in the know. It’s not impossible that, since events occur in time, some combination of the three, including all of them, have been or are true.
So, why is he walking around? Apologies for answering a question with a question, but: Why do any number of guilty political figures go scot-free? Sometimes it’s because the political costs of punishing them are considered too high. For the moment. That could speak to your question if proposition 1 were true.
But say that either proposition 2 or 3 holds. If the West recruited Prigozhin he could represent a flight risk, and his defection might compromise state secrets. However given the possibility that Prigozhin is a double agent, what he reveals would likely be highly suspect. Moreover switching sides would surely diminish Prigozhin’s popularity in Russia, which the authorities would probably not consider an unwelcome development.
We can’t know for sure what elements figure in the calculus, but it’s conceivable that some combination of them answers the question of why Prigozhin is, for the moment, walking around free. I incline toward a combination of 1 and 2, but even from such a limited exercise it’s apparent how counterintelligence can make you crazy.
The smart and wily Margarita Simonyan commented on her Telegram channel that Putin’s choice regarding Prigozhin was “the bad” and “the horrible”.
IF… he is “walking around free”, it’s because the whole “legality” thing is not going to be wasted on him, eventually, when no one’s looking or thinking about him anymore, or far far away… he may have an accident or perhaps get hit by mistake with “friendly” fire while engaging with his men in Mali.
Putin does not need or want a spectacle/martyr dragging into infinity like “Assange”. There are already terrible international, foreign & Ruble consequences as it is now.
He may not be arrested, but he’s hardly “free”. At this point with Prigozhin… “foul” can be called either way… if arrested, Pringo lovers and every NGO and rent-a-mobs come crawling out of their holes in “protest” about his “March for Justice”… if not arrested… hardliners “squawk” on the air & blogs… better instagram, blogs & trashy articles than mobs. At least for now.
There are already hints in Putins latest speech or possible “embezzlement”…he needs charges and an arrest that will unify the soldiers (and citizens to an extent)…the night is young.
Larry, Russian helicopter pilots died, shot down by Wagner. I can’t believe Putin played this psyop and sacrificed pilots. He (prighozin) is alive because Wagner had/has a big following in Russia and if Putin destroyed them on Russian soil that would have been bad for the public. Now, he has even more support and Prighozin can just disappear
What is the proof that there were casualties? I have not seen any corroborating info. If you have some please share. Thanks.
Putin’s public tribute (a minute silence) to the men fallen by the mutiny is also a piece of theatre?
I don’t know. Do you?
A friendly suggestion, Johnson – after all, this is your platform: climbing down is a healthy exercise for the soul.
“I don’t know. Do you?”
If you think that Putin would stage that type of theatre for you or anyone else, then you need to lay down that crack pipe.
Someone should go to Russia to verify if those pilots are really dead:
https://t.me/iEarlGreyTV/6078
Great opinion piece….
Prigojine pouvait être descendu par le véritable patron de Wagner à tout instant. Wagner était entièrement encadré par le renseignement russe.
Par ailleurs, marcher sur Moscou avec 5000 hommes vous semble réaliste et concevable pour un homme de terrain comme Prigojine ? Contrôler Rostov-sur Don sans un seul coup de feu tiré vous convainc ? Non Progojine est un fidèle à la Russie. Son “exil” en Belarus me fait sourire, moi.
La seule vraie question, c’est “dans quel but la Russie a monté ce stratagème ? Qu’a-t-elle gagné de stratégique qui puisse mériter tous ces efforts sur 6 mois de temps ?”
Wagner was created by the GRU in 2014 to get around Russian law forbidding the Russian military operating outside Russian borders. This allowed Russia to deploy military assets to Ukraine and Syria without a vote in the Duma. Despite the west framing Putin as a dictator he is forbidden from using the Russian military without an act of the Duma … unlike POTUS who can send the US military anywhere, anytime and bomb whoever he pleases.
Prigozhin is a beard. Wagner is made up of a core of Russian soldiers and is funded and supplied by the Russian government … the money is just routed through Prigozhin to keep it all legal.
Now remember that Putin is no virgin … he was a KGB colonel in charge of the East German station … probably the most important posting for any KGB agent of his rank and Wagner is a GRU organization under the hood. The idea that Putin and the GRU would allow Prigozhin to command such a powerful force without having at least one loyal GRU man putting a bullet in his head is laughable.
So either Putin and the GRU are so naive as to give control of Wagner to a loose cannon or Prigozhin was acting with the knowledge and blessing of the GRU and ultimately Putin.
Now look back at the events of last weekend through this lens and tell me what you actually saw. As someone with an interest in Russian military history I was waiting to see what form Russian maskirovka would take in light of NATO’s ISR complex seeing everything on the ground … I think we just witnessed it in the drama that unfolded this weekend.
The best commentary on the subject by far. So many people that should know better swallowing the narrative hook line and sinker. I never believed the official narrative from
the start. It never made any sense.
Wagner is not a private army it is trained and funded by the Russian military. Somehow we are supposed to believe that a chef takes over the organization and tries to over throw the Russian government while Russian intel in the middle of a conflict is asleep at the wheel. The only people who believe that are people who are desperate to believe that nonsense.
In addition, some naive Americans believe that Prigozhin is hiding in Belarus, where he is ready to spend a happy old age on the billions of dollars received from the CIA.
Really? Then why didn’t the Belarusian oppositionists flee to Russia after the Orange Revolution? Probably because they are not complete fools.
Well, Prigozhin is certainly no fool.
“Does anyone really believe that the 50 Governors and all members of the Senate and House would rush to Joe Biden’s defense?”
No, but about half the frigging eRepubs would. Don’t get me started . . .
It is inconceivable that US “intelligence” knew what Prigozhin was planning — but Russian intelligence did not. So either the Biden Krew are lying that they knew in advance (possible) or Prigozhin was playing a role (likely). The fact that Biden denied that the US had any involvement in Prigozhin’s Frantic Friday can be taken as an admission that his MalAdministration was indeed involved.
There have been intriguing reports/rumors that Belarus is building an 8,000 capacity camp for Wagner fighters. And President Putin said that Wagner fighters could go to Belarus if they so choose. This story arc is not over!
Jackson Hinkle (take the source with a grain of salt), of the dive reports Wagner was relocated to Belarussia (and closer to Kiev)and that Wagner recruiting posters which were all torn down are back up. Ukraine continues to bleed profusely (with no media attention). I also suspect that a lot of western intel assets may have been arrested on Thursday – perhaps the GRU was watching to see who received activation “codes.” Its not over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olu1adoaHdI
I don’t know. Biden denying knowledge of anything is the most plausible of deniability. The folks around him – that’s another matter.
Whether US intel actually knew in advance or not, one cannot infer from articles in the press. They’re not in the business of saying ‘Man, we were clueless on that one’. It’s not a good look for any intelligence service not to know what’s afoot.
Better to claim they knew something was up and chose to keep quiet about it.
“There have been intriguing reports/rumors that Belarus is building an 8,000 capacity camp for Wagner fighters.”
Germany recently committed ~4,000 troops to Lithuania near the Belarus border, and now the US has built (but not occupied yet) a brand new NATO base in Lithuania, also near the Belarus border. Coincidence?
Follow the money. Prigozhin was about to lose his very valuable cash cow with all Wagner personnel having to sign contracts with MOD (sensible policy). In addition, I have read elsewhere he had lost or was losing other (non Wagner) contracts to supply material and services to the MOD/Russian military bases (loss not surprising given his public attacks on Russia’s military and officials). About to lose not just a huge amount of money but all the sense of power and public presence.
Plus, he is a Zelensky-quality drama queen and thug who believed his own bs.
It would be incredibly incompetent, even for the people in power in the US, were they not talking with him, whispering in his ear about how they would support him in his efforts for “justice” (ie for him to keep hold of money and power).
It was a no-loss opportunity for Western military/intelligence agencies. If he went for it, he just might destabilize Russia’s war effort; he might even somehow cause the overthrow of Putin; and if he failed, no skin off the West’s nose.
I believe it was here where I mostly read people, maybe you, Larry, saying Putin was using Sun Tzu tactics.
“American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.
Wednesday was June 21, while the NATO’s Exercise Air Defender 2023, June 12-23 was still ongoing. Could it be Putin used a bit of a twist of Sun Tzu again in case Nato was planning something? “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake,” altered into, “let this coup play out and we won’t have to risk anything.” And if NATO did decide to move on Moscow, Russia re-enforcements would be closer to the city.
I do not think so! Or I wouldn’t say so much. The Mutiny was onde OP of a greedy imbecile who believed that his recent popularity was enough to overthrow the Russian Minister of Defense, who was about to “rob” him the big PMC business merely for legal reasons on Russia! And all it took was a 5-minute speech by the most popular politician on earth to reduce Prigozhin’s dreams to rubble. However, its quite normal that some western intelligence services, who knew about Prigozhin’s revolt against the MOD, tried to take advantage of the situation, overthrowing Putin. The big dream of the US! At least I don’t see any other justification for Prigozhin to change his script completely in line with the Western script. From the unprovoked war that Russia is stealing from Africa?! Where curiously only Wagner operates. Only Prigozhin’s destiny will fully clarify the reasons for the mutiny.
Meanwhile, it seems that there are reports that Prigozhin and the Wagner soldiers – who participated in the attempted coup – arrived in Belarus. Where new camps are being built. The Council of Commanders and most of the Wagner group remained in Russia to sign contracts with the MOD and Defense Minister Shoigu. Which seems untouchable as expected. The MOD even published a video with Shoigu visiting the troops at the front. Precisely to show that the unity of the Russian state is inviolable in war time.
Against the speculation of Russian newspapers which are like newspapers in the West. Business and INFLUENCE TRADING lobbies like the NYT and WaPO, which have destroyed many Democracies. And the lack of support from the Wagner Commanders alone should have been a warning to Prigozhin to abort the coup attempt. Because if not even your Commanders supported insanity, which Military Commanders would support it? Unfortunately Prigozhin believed that his popularity was bringing down Shoigu! Watch out for windows on BY.
Regarding Prigozhin and the 8,000 soldiers of the Wagner PMC in Belarus, who, regardless of the pardon, could not continue to operate in Russian territory as a PMC – without a contract with the MOD – according to the Constitution of Russia, it must mean one of two realities: Wagner becomes a PMC registered in Belarus or operating from Belarus. For those who still liked to see Prigozhin go down to Kiev. Which is very different and each one forms their thinking. Maybe he even travels to London first if it starts to get too hot in Minsk. Remember that France also incorporated its Foreign Legion recently in the French MOD. As french fuckers liked to remind Russia until yesterday. After centuries of crimes around the world. Especially in “French” Africa.
I have no idea if the Belarusian Constitution allows PMCs. If it’s true that Prigozhin is in Belarus, it seems obvious that Prigozhin mainly wanted to save the PMC business and at the end of the day, his neck. Undoubtedly. But it doesn’t seem credible to me, with or without pardon for the coup attempt, that he will go back to work for the Russian Federation. Much less in Africa after Prigozhin mentioned what he said about Russia’s actions in Africa?! Where curiously only Wagner operated?! Because if Wagner were to return to Africa, where the African Govts must be the first not to want to see Prigozhin and his PMC again, there would be many explanations missing from the plot of the 24th of June! Because Russia cannot again invite to work who betrayed Russia! But it will be enough for a lot of speculation. Like Shoigu’s exit. Until yesterday.
And just to destroy yet another propaganda campaign that is already running fast in the West about the Russian population’s support for Wagner and Prigozhin in Rostov. Based on a video by Patrick Lancaster late Saturday afternoon. When Russians celebrate, above all, the end of the crisis and their President who managed to guarantee the unity of the country with a 5-minute speech. Way too salty for Bliken’s scumbag. On Saturday morning the mood between the Wagner forces and the people of Rostov was the complete opposite:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M5mK7OCUnM
This is not a coup and never was. I Believe Colonel McGregor has it right: it was a protest against ineffectual management of the war in Ukraine by Shoigu/Gerasimov and the Russian MOD. For over 16 months, the entire Russian army has only gone backwards. It is hard to believe that this “do nothing” management of the war is acceptable to the Russian people. This would explain the popularity of Prigozhin among the people and in many levels of the military. His forces, the Wagner group, are the only unit that has taken the war to the enemy and defeated them (Bakhmut).
Despite all his bluster, he must be painfully aware that unnecessary prolongation of the conflict is leading to increasing risk of a wider conflict with NATO, possibly a nuclear one. Let’s hope that president Putin got the message.
Look at the logic. On the one hand Prigozhin claims he is upset by the “ineffectual management” of the war. But then he says the SMO was illegal and not justified. Which is it?
Exactly.
If Prigozhin believed the war was not being fought hard enough, why was he spouting Telegraph Editorial scale buzz words about the war being “unprovoked” and the preceding 8 years of aggression against the Donbas as “non-existent”?
Since the Russian public have spent 8 years watching the carnage on their TV screens every night, there can’t be many people in Russia who believe this chancer.
Larry, I think a lot of the confusion is coming from bad, (deliberately?), translations of Prigozhin’s Telegram statements.
https://rumble.com/v2w4jsa-the-real-reason-for-wagner-group-leader-prigozhins-rebellion.html
Neither.
Prigogine’s lie, by claiming that the Ukrainian Nazis had not killed the civilian population of Donbass on a daily basis since 2014, spit in the face of a large part of Russian society ! As for how verifiable this can be, you only have to think about the fact that the Russian-speaking population of Ukraine is connected to the Russian motherland by a million kinship lines ! The 14,000 citizens of Donbas who were murdered by the Azov Nazis created and financed by Kolomoisky have hundreds of thousands of Russian relatives living in Russia, who do not need to explain these murders, they know well and are waiting for the murderers to be punished !
Yes only wagner is magic!! Mariupol was taken by ghost of kiev then?
Did the hero’s and planes actually get shot down? That is a popular narrative. Still haven’t seen any offer of proof for the claim.
If we consider the hypothesis that the MOD knew of Prigozhin’s coup plans and deliberately let them go ahead, knowing they’d fizzle, let’s rage a look at what was accomplished:
1. The MOD takes over Wagner.
2. The MOD gets rid of Prigozhin.
3. Putin openly blames NATO for the putsch, strengthening the MOD faction that was always and justifiably afraid of a Minsk III type betrayal by Putin.
4. Wagner suddenly acquires bases in Belarus near the Ukranazistan border. Is it possible to believe a camp for 8000 men sprang up overnight instead of being prepared well in advance?
5. The Ukranazis did not achieve any success during the coup period.
6. The Ukranazis now have to garrison Kiev to guard against a Wagner led thrust south. Wagner will have none of the restrictive ROE the Ru army was shackled by last time around, and would be itching to prove its honour. The Ukranazis know this.
7. Belarus is probably invasion and coup proofed now.
8. Shoigu may finally be removed and replaced by someone more militarily competent, whether Putin likes it or not.
9. This was probably NATO’s last hope short of direct intervention. Now that’s its point remaining option short of admitting defeat.
Seems like a fairly good day for the MOD.
An attack with 8 000 men? And Belarus was also safer with 8 000 troops?
If you move the Wagner Group to its next assignment, then Russia won’t want to attach itself closer to the Wagner Group, mainly to preserve the SMO until direct conflict between the United States and Russia is completely out in the open.
With direct involvement all but inevitable, and with the United States carrying out terrorist attacks against Moscow, all the while blowing up critical civilian infrastructure with complete impunity, the need for the Wagner Group’s services becomes even more critical.
The Wagner Group preserves the high ground for Russia.
Generally agree.
Just on your bullet (4), though, I do think it is possible that as part of general planning for various kinds of contingencies, barracks and the like (with suitable security, perimeter, and other necessary features – so not some sort of “pop up” refugee camp) sufficient to house a very large number of soldiers either exist, or can be put up in very short order.
Russia and Belarus together form a Union State – there are many special arrangements and possibilities.
It’s geographic importance is immense re: war planning, sharing borders with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine (the first 3 are NATO members). Logistics and pre-positioning of men and materiel (including the ability to do so/scale up very rapidly) will be something that is obsessed about daily.
This is my new theory. Time will tell. I now think IF prigozhin has become an agent of the west and the internal enemies of putin which are one and the same; the fake coup was meant to start a movement to weaken putin in the eyes of the russian public by showing the borders are weakly defended. The fact that prigozhin is not arrested may show weakness on putin`s part to many russian people.
They want to make sure he is defeated in the russian elections next year in march or to strongly encourage him not to run for relection. This would lead to further unrest and the ultimate wet dream of the west is a repeat of the 2014 event in the ukraine; except this time in russia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election
Military summary speculates that the wagners are being sent to belarus to police the coming elections next february. He also stated that belarus have allot of interests in africa also where wagner could be of use. This is discussed at the beginning of his vid.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Belarusian_parliamentary_election
Russian Spring | Ukrainians Captured Two Important Bridgeheads. Military Summary For 2023.06.26
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGIt9J_F4f0
at the mark below toward the end of the vid; a ukrainian officer is shown fragging his own men because they refused to attack again on a suicide mission.
https://youtu.be/wGIt9J_F4f0?t=917
regards,
ralph
Larry, I think your analysis nailed it far better than anyone else, and partly because you examined the murky areas.
Prigozhin is Acting Within Russia’s Historical Tradition
Thus far, no one has understood the significance of Prigozhin’s Rebellion nor hit upon the true and accurate interpretation of these events. Prigozhin has been pilloried as egotist screaming for attention or a traitor in the pay of Western intelligence agencies. Both of these claims partake of a highly occidental worldview which does not comprehend the cultural antecedents of Prigozhin’s actions. On the contrary, I say that Prigozhin is a Russian and that he is acting within the Russian historical tradition.
The analogues of Prigozhin’s Rebellion are not to be found in 1917 or 1905, but much further back, in the uprising of Stenka Razin (1670) and in Pugachev’s Rebellion (1773).
That curious mixture of brigandry with populist politics (so misunderstood by people in the West); those ill-fated and quixotic marches upon Moscow, chanting death to Tsars and bureaucrats; the gathering and then exile of mercenary forces sympathetic to the reform but equally and patriotically in love with the motherland—it has all happened before. This seems to be the way in which the Russian soul expresses itself in tense moments, just as surely as no American can get angry at his government without the echoes of the Tea Party and Declaration of Independence ringing in his ears.
Prigozhin gave voice to broad undercurrent in Russian society that, while very loyal to the government, wants to see the war prosecuted harder and burns with indignation at every brother Russian who dies in battle while the government plays it safe. Not wanting to appear contentious, they keep their thoughts to themselves until they explode in a great swing in the opposite direction, bringing vengeance and chastisement upon Moscow whom they view as a prodigal son. It is the style of the sudden catharsis, the style of the pogrom, the Russian style.
In each of these explosions a local hero steps forth onto the stage of history, moved towards an end that cannot help but result in his personal destruction, he impels, focuses, and clarifies all the hidden needs of the Russian heart. We don’t excuse their misdeeds, but we redeem somewhat of their memory in museums and songs, for we are sympathetic to their passion. The same fever burns within us. Razin, Pugachev, Prigozhin—their names belong together forever.
While the West propagandizes itself with tales of Prigozhin’s ego or with utterly baseless calumnies about his subversion by Western intelligence (because that is according to its nature), Russia has been fortified by Prigozhin’s fever, even if he was fated to play the role of the evil humor.
Half hero, half criminal, all Russian—Prigozhin. Remember him with mercy.
Lovely comment.
“….just as surely as no American can get angry at his government without the echoes of the Tea Party and Declaration of Independence ringing in his ears.”
This American has no love/hate conflict with the US govt. In its current iteration the US govt. is the antithesis of the the Declaration of Independence. The Declaration teaches us to love Liberty, behooves us to love and respect ourselves and each other as sovereign persons. The state, especially the US state teaches us to look scornfully at each other and to worship and tremble at the altar of Big Brother.
Prigozhin is Acting Within Russia’s Historical Tradition
Thus far, no one has understood the significance of Prigozhin’s Rebellion nor hit upon the true and accurate interpretation of these events. Prigozhin has been pilloried as egotist screaming for attention or a traitor in the pay of Western intelligence agencies. Both of these claims partake of a highly occidental worldview which does not comprehend the cultural antecedents of Prigozhin’s actions. On the contrary, I say that Prigozhin is a Russian and that he is acting within the Russian historical tradition.
The analogues of Prigozhin’s Rebellion are not to be found in 1917 or 1905, but much further back, in the uprising of Stenka Razin (1670) and in Pugachev’s Rebellion (1773).
That curious mixture of brigandry with populist politics (so misunderstood by people in the West); those ill-fated and quixotic marches upon Moscow, chanting death to Tsars and bureaucrats; the gathering and then exile of mercenary forces sympathetic to the reform but equally and patriotically in love with the motherland—it has all happened before. This seems to be the way in which the Russian soul expresses itself in tense moments, just as surely as no American can get angry at his government without the echoes of the Tea Party and Declaration of Independence ringing in his ears.
Prigozhin gave voice to broad undercurrent in Russian society that, while very loyal to the government, wants to see the war prosecuted harder and burns with indignation at every brother Russian who dies in battle while the government plays it safe. Not wanting to appear contentious, they keep their thoughts to themselves until they explode in a great swing in the opposite direction, bringing vengeance and chastisement upon Moscow whom they view as a prodigal son. It is the style of the sudden catharsis, the style of the pogrom, the Russian style.
In each of these explosions a local hero steps forth onto the stage of history, moved towards an end that cannot hep but result in his personal destruction, he impels, focuses, and clarifies all the hidden needs of the Russian heart. We don’t excuse their misdeeds, but we redeem somewhat of their memory in museums and songs, for we are sympathetic to their passion. The same fever burns within us. Razin, Pugachev, Prigozhin—their names belong together forever.
While the West propagandizes itself with tales of Prigozhin’s ego or with utterly baseless calumnies about his subversion by Western intelligence (because that is according to its nature), Russia has been fortified by Prigozhin’s fever, even if he was fated to play the role of the evil humor.
Half hero, half criminal, all Russian—Prigozhin. Remember him with mercy.
I’m still in the Prigo is a traitor camp.
We know that Russian pilots died – Prigo mentioned this.
We know that Putin and Russia look weaker than they did.
We know that NATO members will be more willing to provide further support for Z at their next meeting.
Motive?
Prigo cash cow Wagner being dismantled and loss of power
Possible mental breakdown?
Bribes by west and military intelligence
Latest Scott Ritter video was interesting
Prigo must have been hoping for Russian military units to defect and join him. That didn’t happen.
Kadrov forces were converging on Rostov.
2500 elite Russian forces were waiting for Prigo on the highway.
Apparently 100k for each wagner soldier. 50 in advance and rest on completion.
My sentiments too. Just waiting to see what happens in Belarus.
I agree that the CIA just talks shit and is most likely now trying to pass for a real security agency. A shitty criminal organization that even believes in its propaganda.
Well PorNoshenko looks like he has been had, real bad
Does he have citizenship with a certain small country in the ME?
Thank you Larry for the clear and professional analyses.
My dear fellow readers, please pay attention to what Larry tries to make you understand. And Andrey Martyanov.
Too much attention is being paid to the prigo chef… This is a busy “kitchen”, with probably several chefs and sous-chefs… Dine-in and food delivered guests, Wait for the food to be ready, ignore the many words and follow the action carefully. Patience!
BTW, this shady chef character is not the owner or founder of the group, -“only” the ceo… What is the job description of a ceo? Besides getting a handsome pay.
Note that CEOs wield much less real power than it is believed.
Think about Who founded the Wagner group? Why would they put an inadequate jailbird to the top of a military org?
One should also differentiate btw a self-made man and a “system made man”. Prigozhin and most oligarchs fall in the latter category. They are owned and controlled by the system that created them for a purpose. And the prisoners of their characters.
In the meantime, the meatgrinder is On, woke fake economies are collapsing in the west, Nuland’s investments in 404 are probably not performing as expected, black rock and Mr Fink’s board of directors must be a tad nervous having lost the golden eastern Ukraine. And the Russian society is solid with a good future in sight.
Excellent analysis Larry, I am all on board with that.
And now what?
Well at the end of the day, Prighozin is in charge of tactical nukes in Belarus.
What does that tell you?
à suivre…
Maybe he just has an enormous ego, needed to continue being the center of attention after Bakhmut, couldn’t stomach being marginalized or sent to rest. Yachts, mansions, women and being able to buy anything etc. doesn’t satisfy after a while, but power and being perceived as indispensable does. He had a taste of that, but that was all ending after Bakhmut. So he lashes out at other generals, that didn’t work so he threatens a coup, yeah that’s the ticket he thinks. Then everyone around him sees the panicked ego, the Russian military, his troops, he comes to realize his ego problem, his smallness. That and a talk with Putin who gives him a last chance to continue living at all. He was probably nothing more than a giant ego with a megaphone wanting attention is all it seems to me.
Larry, I’m highly appreciative of your excellent analysis of this incident. I’m quite disappointed by how many of the analysts I respect have swallowed the official story whole, whilst failing to adequately explain the glaring holes in the narrative. Prigozhin could have fled anywhere, including to the West. Why go to Belarus, which is joined at the hip with Russia – unless his loyalties still lay with Russia?
We are told that he went to Belarus after negotiations – it rather sounded like capitulation.
If he was offered death or Belarus, what do you think he would choose? He could not flee anywhere at the time of “negotiations”. He was stuck with no way out.
Only by going to Belarus can he hope to flee anywhere else. As for loyalties – Prigozhins loyalties lie first and foremost with himself.
“United States and many countries in Europe are keen to see it ripped asunder.”
I just re-read Dropshot American Plan for War with the Soviet Union, 1957 Vol. III
I first read it many years ago, but at the time was more interested in the operational issues of how it was anticipated the war would be fought in 1957.
Re-reading it, I am struck by the US war aims as expressed in it:
16. Establish Control and Enforce Surrender Terms in the USSR and Satellite Countries (in the Event of a Possible Early Capitulation of the USSR During Phase I)
a. Analysis In order to ensure compliance with our national objectives, the Allies would have to occupy selected areas of the USSR and her satellites and establish some form of Allied control in each of those countries. A method of control under the conditions which would exist in the event of early capitulation, affording maximum control with minimum forces, might be to occupy selected bridgeheads in the USSR and other selected centers which would serve as bases for projection of control in both the USSR and her satellites. It is considered that the greater portion of control forces should be in bridgehead areas with minimum forces in the interior.
Areas selected as centers of control in the USSR should be urban areas which are of strategic importance such as the following: political and administrative centers, communication centers, major seaports or naval bases, oil-producing or refining centers. Areas selected in the satellites as centers of control should be the various capitals and certain key seaports and urban areas. Centers of control in the USSR should be grouped into larger regions of responsibility.
………..
It is considered that the basic element of control should be exercised by ground forces based in and operating from the control subcenters. The most suitable control unit readily available would be the division augmented by additional motor transport to give it increased mobility. On this basis, a total of thirty-eight divisions is estimated to be the minimum requirements for the control centers shown on the map referred to above.
Since the means of control envisaged would in reality be a skeleton occupation, it is considered that a high ratio of air-force units would be desirable in order to bring visible evidence of Allied strength before the Soviet and satellite people. These air-force units should be organized, disposed, and controlled on a broader regional concept than the ground forces in order to assure flexibility and maximum effectiveness with the minimum of forces in assisting and supporting the ground forces.
On this basis five reinforced tactical air forces, each consisting of approximately five to six combat groups and one troop-carrier group with an attached assault or glider squadron, should be assigned the following regions of responsibility: western USSR, Caucasus-Ukraine, Urals-west Siberia-Turkestan, east Siberia-Transbaikal-maritime (including Korea) and the European satellite area. Ground and air forces would be provided from forces released from other tasks and should be moved to selected centers of control by the most feasible and rapid means available in each case. Logistic support would be mainly by sea transport and railroad, augmented, especially in the initial stages, by air transport. It is recognized that tremendous logistic problems would exist in the supply of Allied control forces, particularly those destined for areas deep in the USSR. Allied troop-carrier and air-transport units would be strained to the utmost in providing airlift. A considerable period might elapse before full complements of Allied ground and air forces reached all control centers, but every effort should be made to reduce this time to the minimum, even though capitulation had already been obtained.
A carrier task force should be provided in each of the Baltic and Black seas to provide a reserve striking force and to serve as a psychological factor to impress the Soviet and satellite peoples.
A reserve of divisions, fighter and bomber groups, and troop-carrier units should be earmarked by the Allies when released from other tasks to be available for re-enforcement of the control forces if required. The size and composition would be dependent upon the situation existing at the time.
The forces required for this course of action, with the possible exception of those required for airlift, could be made available from those which have been developed for the other courses of action in Phase I. The balance of forces then in existence should be retained operational in reserve until full control of the USSR and her satellites is established and until the situation in Southeast Asia and the Far East has been clarified.
United States Department of Defense. Dropshot: American Plan for War with the Soviet Union, 1957 (pp. 45-46). Unknown. Kindle Edition.
Elsewhere in Dropshot, though not in the Vol 3 on Kindle, the aim of breaking up Russia in order to ensure it would never be powerful enough to oppose the US is explicitly stated as a war aim.
The war aims of this plan were delusional. Russians would never accept foreign occupation, the US could never mobilise enough forces to effectively occupy Russia.
But More! I had though the plans to defeat and break up Russia were a relatively recent neocon innovation. NO, HELL NO! Dropshot was drafted in 1957, 66 years ago, and was the outcome of up to 10 years of planning, thus the plan to break up Russia is probably at least 75 years old and has permeated all US “strategic” thinking about Russia since then.
Basically, the United States picked up where the Germans left off after 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as sub-humans. Russia and the Russian people don’t deserve having a country, much less secure borders or sovereignty.
After the huge expenditure of natural resources expended fighting World War II, somebody must have come to the conclusion that we live on a finite planet, with finite resources. Inevitably, with an economy based upon exponential growth, someday the world, mainly the “world” being the United States, the hegemon would runout of these resources. The main requirement for having a First World economy being access to cheap and plentiful energy supplies.
Russia, with its vast supplies of natural resources — in terms of natural gas, coal, oil, minerals, and rare earths — in “shameful abundance” would be the next conquest by the United States and the West. After all, what do farm folk just off the commune, country bumpkins like the Russians, deserve having all these natural resources?
the plan to break up russia originated in the writings of british geostrategist halford mackinder and his “heartland theory” (1904). mackinder`s theories, in turn, were a result of britain`s own dismal attempts at occupying crimea (and controlling the black sea) during the crimean war (1853-56). anglo-saxon plans of subjugating russia and stealing its resources are, therefore, at the very least 170 years old.
tellingly, mackinders “heartland theory”, in turn, morphed into zbigniev brzezinski`s own “grand chessboard” (1997), an almost picture-perfect copy of mackinder`s geostrategic wet dreams of yore. by the late 1990s, the collective west had almost reached its goal of tearing russia apart, establishing control over the black sea, etc…until president vladimir putin arrived on the scene, that is:
surprised, then, that the collective west has such an obvious loathing for putin? we shouldn`t be.
mackinder and the “geographical pivot of history”:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographical_Pivot_of_History
I am aware of McKinder, and the centuries old English antipathy towards Russia.
But in the 19th century, Russia and the US had very friendly relations.
During Stalin’s industrialisation in the late 20’s and 30’s many US companies provided enormous technical assistance.
I believe it was only after WW2 the that US became infected with this pathological hatred as evidenced by the Dropshot plan
One reason I suspected a fake or failed recruiting of Prigozhian by NATO and Ukraine was the failed attempted recruiting of Russian pilots to deliver warplanes to Ukraine last year.
https://www.rt.com/russia/559528-fsb-ukraine-spies-hijack-warplanes/
This and the somewhat unorthodox approach to carrying out a “coup” made me suspect pretty much from the get go that the NATO and Ukraine were being played by the Russians, including by Prigozhian and Putin.
That it seemed somewhat daring and potentially dangerous considering the troop movement, was probably a caluculated risk to flush out any “sleeper” cells or Western sympathizers/co-conspirators in the security/military/political ranks in Russia. Do not know how successful this was.
The aftermath seems to have confirmed this given the “punishment” Prigozhian has received so far. Far too leniant for any coup leader I know of, except for maybe Talat Aydemir’s first attempt at a coup in 1962 in Turkiye, where he was retired from the military afterwards, only to try again the following year, after which he was retired from life.
Andrey Martyanov goes out to destroy Wagner. It has already been called practically everything and the most sympathetic was Criminal Organization. Basically it just goes without saying that Wagner is also a product of the Ivy League Universities that Andrei admires so much. He’s heartbroken and it’s a shame because he also makes good points but can only live in the polar extremes with great exaggeration. There is never a middle ground in Andrei’s analyses.
And if he went more slowly, he could remember the wonders he said about Wagner 6 months ago before Prigozhin started to open his mouth. And he was even able to remember that Wagner was not born from spontaneous generation and is not only a product of a Russian Institution with much merit as the flag of Russia in several countries. The concept and usefulness of Wagner PMC shouldn’t foot the bill for Prigozhin’s recent insanity.
Excellent analysis by Babitch! On The Coup In Russia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6OTAfa2qNs
The double agent scenario is the only one that makes sense out of this. I always believed it was likely an elaborate Maskirovka, months in the planning and execution. Prigozhin’s rants without consequences never made sense to me any other way.
The benefits to Russia outweighed whatever the risks were. Ultimately Prigozhin and Wagner had to be redeployed as legally they cannot operate within Russia, and the Donbass is now Russia.
To me the question is did they manage to flush out any rats in the process? I hope so. Of course they did also manage to affirm the social cohesion of the Russian people and their loyalty and patriotism. That will surely be a lesson to those in the west with the eyes to see.
Either way now the insane western media machine will force Ukraine to keep attacking and using up their limited reserves of men and machines. Russia/Putin derangement syndrome is alive and well. The mindless warmongering of the western press and the likes of Lindsay Graham et al leaves me utterly perplexed at the folly of these people. They should all be either in jail or insane asylums in my opinion.
Satanic delusion is the baseline spiritual and mental condition of Western people, especially the owners and controllers and their assorted organs. It is a hard truth to come to grips with, but once you do, you are no longer perplexed by the attitudes and behaviors observed.
Dmitry babich said
There are people who called themselves friend of Putin. Local law enforcement agencies are afraid to go against them
https://youtu.be/-6OTAfa2qNs
I think, none on this is true. Prigozhin had some problems with the work/attitude of the MoD. It happens, it is not unusual, that people disagree when working together. This is not some fun project they are involved in, it’s a war, a war where people die.
Prigozhin was at the front, he knows his people and was too emotional dealing with what he saw a failure of the people inside MoD. He went after the ones in charge. He didn’t handle it very well. He made a mistake, thinking he could march to Moscow and force the MoD to take his issues seriously. After Lukashenko talked with him, he probably became aware what mess he got himself into in the context of his actions and statements. He saw, he basically appeared as an traitor, ready for a grab of power in the middle of a serious conflict between Nato and Russia. So he made a deal and backed down, while there was still the possibility to do so. But the situation was already bad enough, so changes had to be agreed upon.
That’s my view of that “incident”. Some things just unravel like that. There is nothing behind it, but only people not handling things rationally. Others spin that into one million stories of how it could have been and what not.
He claimed that the war was “unprovoked” and that the 8 years of aggression against the people of the Donbas had not occurred.
A Western propaganda trope.
How can there be “nothing behind it”?
{Some have posed the false dichotomy of having to choose “real coup” versus “pretend coup.”}
I agree that this is a false dichotomy but you seem to be proposing one as well: “real traitor” vs “fake traitor”.
Perhaps there’s another option: that Prigozhin was a real traitor later turned into a fake one upon being caught. Perhaps he really did have delusions of grandeur about securing power, whether political or military. Perhaps he got caught and turned, allowed to continue his role but now as a ploy. Perhaps the gov’t let it play out for the benefits you point out, but since the initial betrayal was real there was never gonna be forgiveness for the traitor but safe passage could be arranged for playing along.
As Martyanov has taught us the Russians are experts at Boolean “if…then…else” analyses and extrapolations, and can adapt to any difficulty and turn it to am advantage.
In any case, the PMC “experiment” is over.
The state’s monopoly on the use of force will be defended against any form of privatization by the liberals …
Prig is strapped for cash and has been for a while.
Who owns the world must own Eurasia.
Who owns Eurasia must own Ukraine.
Our Colonial masters are loosing Ukraine and their most lethal weapon must be employed to turn their franchise around. MI666.
If Binden says he had nothing to do with the for camera coup. Reverse what he says. He had something to do with the for camera coup.
The coup looks like a cheap B rated movie.
Larry, I find it so fitting the selection of this iconic scene with Luca Brazzi in the Godfather. As a 100% Sicilian, to understand Cosa Nostra, is to understand the mindset and modus operandi of military doctrine and operations throughout the world. They are in fact the model for intelligence gathering and covert warfare. Heck, if it weren’t for Cosa Nostra here in Sicily, the Anglo-Americans would still be on the beach in Tunisia waiting to launch their Operation Husky, which historically didn’t really go to well for the allies who suffered a huge casualty rate against second-tier Italian troops and a not-too large German support force. Then, again, the arch 33’rd degree Freemason, Winston Churchill, had to take Sicily first for reasons arcane known to only the highest initiates, of which I am quite familiar with.
Sicilians in general, also love engaging in a national sport of ours which in local dialect is called “fare u curtigghiaru”. Essentially, it revolves around sowing discord between friends, family members, neighbors for personal gain. They are masters of it and probably taught the Brits a thing or two who in turn have adopted it as their foreign policy operational standard.
your analogy with Luca Brasi is incorrect, he was not or ever considered becoming a traitor. Don Corleone told Brasi to approach the enemy to say he was unhappy with the Corleone family and was considering switching sides, in order to obtain intelligence of what they were up to. Unfortunately for Brasi, they did not believe him and took the opportunity to get rid of such a feared soldier of the Corleones.
Is Russia stronger or weaker after the do called “coup”? The answer is unequivocally stronger:
1) people are even more united (if that’s even possible)
2) FSB flushed out a whole bunch of sleeper cells and traitors (info is that hundred of all flavor oligarchs, high level gov bureaucrats etc rushed out of the country on their jets, plus a lot more sleeper traitors started panicking and got captured)
3) the world’s most powerful private army is now based in Belarus (along with tactical nukes) right at the epicenter of where rabid fascists (Poles, 3balts, and of course neo nazi Ukis are aiming) – what a perfect location to be, eh?!
So who still believes this was not a well staged FSB / GRU psyop?!
Wagner is not 8 000 soldiers without Commanders.
Looking at what is visible (publicly) it seem there is more than just prigozin and wagner convoy moving to moscow on this ‘coup efffort’.
there should be the people on the administration / bueraucracy supporting the coup . the so called 5th column moving simultanously with the military component.
a coup with only a military component is not a coup , it is a childish and amateurish effort tbh.
from what i see visibly on how this going and how fast it folds , seem like prigozin’s comrades on moscow do not succeed and most likely rolled up by intelligence and seeing their partners in crime fold in moscow prigozin dont see how he can accomplish anything , as NO ONE IN RUSSIA would allow him to replace putin as he is not leadership type.
the question should be who is the 5th column component in this debacle in russian govt. not a single opposition support prigozin and this OBVIOUSLY PLANNED convoy are doomed from the start if there are no ‘govt replacement coup’ to support
At 4:26 into that video Poroshenko speaks of prime minister Liz Truss. “Throwing some shade Putin’s way…” Pretty old shadow.
All this story underline the lack of morale from our press and political establishment. Prigozhin went from “the bucher of Bakhmut” to “Sankt Yevgeny savior of the Holy Russia” to “another Oligarch sacked by Putin regime” in mere days. An emotional roller-coaster … all that for a legal problem the West failed to understand.
PMC are not illegal in RF if they have a contract with the MoD (Army is still a state monopoly). Abroad it’s different and other laws and regulation applies. The thing is that the fighting place of the SMO are now recognized as part of the Russian Federation since a Duma vote prior this year. And it pose a question about renewing Wagner Group contracts that were signed with another states agencies than the MoD. Well, the price payed by the MoD and the de-facto integration in the RF chain of command was apparently problematic … What we saw was a strike and a manifestation : a manifesting PMC is not your usual UAW march :).
This also explain the solution founded, as the PMC services are still in high demand abroad. The theatrical part was just politic and personal matters and as the situation was quickly and quietly solved, won’t hurt RF international reputation, despite the actual MSM chorus.
Good comment. I would add that the Russian efforts to absorb the Wagner Group into the regular Russian army is a bad idea. The Wagner Group serves an invaluable service of allowing wars to be fought and won without being responsible to impediments like the Hague or the Geneva Convention. The Wagner Group can commit acts of terrorism with relative impunity. “They are a bunch of mercenaries. What did you expect?”
As the Ukrainian military is now being quickly annihilated, the Wagner Group’s services in western Ukraine are no longer required and will be moved where they are most needed. I believe Prigozhin may represent an advanced guard, yet another front being established “elsewhere”.
As direct involvement becomes inevitable, the Wagner Group’s services will be all the more needed, necessary, and required. Most likely in eastern Ukraine.
Well , I and I are doubting anyone involving in terrorist activity nowadays will not have to face at least some form of prosecution in one or many countries …
Being a soldier of fortune is not a license to kill in real life. A murder is a murder. Whatever the reasons.
And sometimes shit happens, even with real military : just think about the IranAir flight and the USS Vincennes case… sad story.
Prigozhin is a criminal with normal post Soviet business practices. Controlled by a council of ex military, also a criminal mafia, with intentions of central power. These men are connected to others inside defense ministry and possibly other parts of government. FSB mentioned in our media a lot with speculations of detention of others waiting for arrival of Wagner in Moscow.
All western people and including analysts give too much credit for Prigozhin being a super mastermind capable of acting alone in this.
Now comes the cleaning of traitors, liberal political scientist writers of crap and numerous NGOs, finally.
President Putin and Russia are stronger and more stable.
Prior to the whole Prigozhin drama, Zelinsky, the United States, NATO, the UK, the EU, and the West have been consumed with speculation that the next attack would come from Belarus. Russia agitated things further by installing nuclear weapons there. Then the whole Prigozhin spectacle took place. Debacle, crisis, circus, clown show, whatever you want to call it.
The end result (if this is really the end), is having been painfully punked by Prigozhin, with egg on its face, all Zelinsky, the United States, NATO, the UK, the EU, and the West want to do now, with Prigozhin “exiled” to Belarus, is forget about the whole thing. The United States will return to its previously scheduled program of direct involvement, inevitably leading to a head-to-head with the Russians.
The United States has no choice but direct involvement. As the Russian meatgrinder finally achieves its goal of eating up what is left of the Ukrainian military and Russian forces begin advancing from west to east, that’s when Polish forces cross into the Ukraine, ostensibly coming to the aid of the Ukrainian Martyrs.
Terrorist attacks by the United States will be increased, carried out against Russian territories like Kaliningrad and Transnistria. These terrorist attacks will include false flags against the “decision making centers” of the United States own allies, maybe including another false flag 9/11 event carried out right here in the United States.
Then, as though out of nowhere, the Wagner Group reappears, coming out of Belarus in all directions. Whether Prigozhin will be right there with them will be the real question. Are Prigozhin’s 15-minutes up, or is he the biggest meanest badass triple threat that ever was?
So, 8,000 Wagners are off to a shiny new camp in Belarus. I’m sure they’ll all enjoy toasting Mr Prigozhin’s marvalous marshmallows around the campfire, having a jolly sing song of an evening on their long summer holiday.
Hmmm Who’s going to be paying them?
In the middle of a military-technical solution, why would anybody be paying 8,000 seasoned combat veterans of an elite unit to sit around on their arses doing bugger all until their contracts expire?
Is it just me, or does this seem a bit implausible?
It does look like another American-funded Russia hoax.
Just-jokin Prigozhin borrowed a column of loyal-to-Putin Russian soldiers, just for the day, to stage a rebellion against the Russian Army.
He used the Vagnabond Army to invade Russia on the 24th June, the 211th anniversary of the day Napoleon crossed the Russian Border enroute to Moscow.
After a stop-off at Rostov the column encountered a policecar road block (Battle of Maskirovka) and the force retired.
This is a very serious matter. Honest.
A turning point, perhaps.
Putin may have decided that the misinformation he was feeding NATO about the weakness of the Russian forces is no longer to the benefit to his SMO. Now that a Russian offensive may commence, he needs to project Russia’s strength.
Risky though. The NATO leadership may decide it is better to nuke Moscow than face the humiliation.
“Just-jokin Prigozhin borrowed a column of loyal-to-Putin Russian soldiers, just for the day, to stage a rebellion against the Russian Army.”
This is funny because looking at the T-72s at Rostov it seems they pulled them from the local maintenance depot for the weekend to be returned by Monday so they can get their regularly schedule overhaul underway.
I am another one in the Master Class of Maskirovka camp since this started. Especially when one has an imbecilic enemy who won’t listen to you through diplomatic channels, then hammer into their thick heads the way of the world by using the fools favored medium. Another factor is the Putin and Prigozhin relationship, friends can work together to play the audience much easier than merely business acquaintances.
The analysis by commentors across the cyber world has actually been intriguing and entertaining with some very creative outlooks.
Let us see where this fascinating story has led to come Friday.
If wrong, I will be man enough to admit so.
Thomas
Up to Prigozhin’s mutiny I was kept wondering why the ‘Wagner’ private army got this name. Now I know. Richard Wagner composed the ‘Ring des Nibelungen’. In this opera serial there are three parties operating, who each have their own power base: the Giants, the Gods and the Trolls.
Well, in the present real time reality show performance of the ‘Ring’ the Giants can easily be recognized as ‘the West’, who has been building up a huge Walhalla (that is factually on the point of collapse).
The Gods, with Putin in the role of Wotan, are easily identified as the protagonists of State sovereignty, who are being accompanied by State sovereigns as Xi, uncle Sasha (Lukashenko), MBS etc., etc.
And the Trolls, whose fate is doing the hard work, are being led by Alberich, who is uncannily looking the same and is foul-mouthedly performing the same act as Prigozhin.
The Rheingold of the State Sovereigns has been confiscated by the Giants. What still awaits us is the Ride of the Valkyries and the cataclysmic downfall of Walhalla, the pride of the Giants.
I think Wagner was Utnik’s nom de guerre.
I’m betting that Prigozhin, and indirectly his bosses, managed to swindle a significant sum of money ($5B?) from the CIA for this « coup theater ».
In war, following the trail of money explains much.
Congratulations Larry,
There is in my view, consensus now, but you were the first. Kim Everson has put out a Youtube confirming her views mirror yours and today the legendary Pepe Escobar has just released an article confirming your viewpoints on Strategic culture foundation. Bravo Larry, you nailed the scenario perfectly.
I know exactly two ethnic Russians who live in the US. One is here in Tulsa. He was actually a Sheriff’s deputy with me. While neither claims any special knowledge of this? They both are completely unglued about this. My deputy friend wants Prizoghin dismembered in front of the Kremlin. They view him as a traitor hurting Russia at exactly the worst time. and they say their contacts in Russia are incoherent about Prizoghin. So, speculation aside, they say this is the primary feeling in Russia.
Your contact with Russia through me says that your friend is right. Emotional reaction – Prigogine should be dismembered, in Russian – quartered. A rational, cynical reaction is to send to Belarus to Lukashenka.
Lukashenko will start the second part of the Marleson ballet – it will be interesting to watch.
This site is slowly changing its focus from analisys to fan-fiction writing.
When the fog clears out, I sincirely hope that Larry will admit that he was wrong, and give credit to those commenters that were right all along.
What does that mean?
Losses incurred may have been real, but accidental. They may have been part of the reinforcements Prigozhin expected in Rostov. They may also be part of the narrative — some blood, real or imaginary, would be necessary to give the thing some weight.
Likewise, Prigozhin may have been in on the sting, or he may have been led down the garden path by all sides. Wagner signing contracts with the MOD wouldn’t be the end of him, nor his cash cow, as some are saying. He was always, up until the armed uprising, well within his right and ability to demand compensation for lost profits — when was the last time a Russian oligarch was sidelined without being reimbursed? Only when they themselves made that outcome inevitable. Prig was, among other things, an influential media mogul — he could have gotten anything he wanted by making a big enough stink in public, so long as he remained loyal. He either wanted what he couldn’t have, to be the big man on top, in which case he’s dumber than he looks, or he was on assignment to look the part. If the latter, it might be only the beginning of his assignment.
Moon of Alabama comments… “As far as is known none of Wagner’s military commanders and only a few thousand of its 25,000 troops had joined Prigozhin in his lunatic run”
Can this be verified. It does seem odd that an organisation with a military command structure could be so easily led off on such a ‘spur of the moment’ mission.
The logistics alone could not have gone unnoticed by existing Wagner command or anybody from the SMO command…_
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/on-prigozhins-insurrection-farce.html
Yes! Congrats, Larry. This makes sense, unlike Larry’s previous “it was all maskirovka.”
It was not “for real” or else the Wagner convoys would not have been permitted to advance unmolested by the Russian air defense. It was not all maskirovka either. It started as a real traitorous act by an unhinged ex-con ncouraged/aided by the West about which the Russians knew from the beginning and which, with consummate ability, they turned into a maskirovka. At the end of it (1) traitors are flushed out; (2) Wagner as such is dissolved; (3) Prigozhin is salted away in Belarus with several thousand troops for possible use as a pretend loose cannon for whatever actions to come for which Russia needs plausible deniability; (4) Russian troops are deployed where needed…
I’m sure Felix Dzerzhinsky smiled as “Prigozhin’s Mutiny” was planned and played out. His creation of the “Trust” is a template for such an operation as the “Mutiny”. Much better to control one’s counter-revolutionary element within and without one’s country.
Larry you are spot on with your analysis.
I found Big Serge’s analysis very trenchant:
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-wagner-uprising
I believe Larry, you are talking about the “Live Bait” hypothesis which is covered.
Otherwise, Big Serge argues well that Prigozhin was about to lose his Private Military Company (since Russia was requiring Wagner soldiers to sign contracts with the regular Russian military) so he concocted this stunt to try to change the game (in other words it was about cash – not surprising from a mercenary I guess – see Machiavelli quote from an earlier comment). A couple of helicopters were destroyed and around 10 guys got killed. Oopsee!
I agree with Big Serge. This was not an elaborate Russian ploy. This was a loon with an inflated ego. Who the Russian PEOPLE quickly shut down.
What good is joke without a punchline? What good is a ruse if no one knows it was a ruse? If it were a ruse, I think we would have had videos of Putin and Prigozin clowning it up in the Kremlin. Maybe even a joint press conference where they made fun of the CIA. That certainly would have brought shame to the West and reinforced the idea of Putin as a master manipulator.
I lean towards the idea that Prigozin is a relatively unsophisticated (not smart) guy who started believing his own press clippings and got manipulated by western intelligence. For months now he had been screaming about ammo shortages and saying the war was going badly. Lately he was the only one saying Ukraine was having success with it’s offensive.
I think the whole thing was planned to coincide with the offensive and give the illusion that the whole mess was collapsing. The western media stories that appeared IMMEDIATELY as they always seem to do gave the game away. They wanted a replay of 1917. The tired Russian armies with low morale, bad logistics, huge casualties would join the rebellion or go home. Except no one bit. Nothing happened. No defections. No one joined. And it all fizzled.
And I don’t know if in fact Prigozin IS walking around. But if he is, it probably won’t be for long. But for now, ending it this way allows Putin to save a little face and not admit that there was a bit of an actual rebellion and that a genuine hero would rebel.
The whole thing is just another example of the amateurish operations of western intelligence dominated by a false perception that Russia is some fragile state of precarious existence. Western intelligence has, despite all evidence to the contrary, NEVER advanced from Hitler’s boast that all he had to do was “…kick down the front door and the whole Russian state would collapse.”
Russia is Russia. To the western eye and mind it looks backwards and disorganized. But it has strength beyond what we can understand and has endured in more or less its present form for more than three centuries despite crazy Tsars, revolutions, invasions, mad dictators, and whatever else Providence can throw at it.
You really are off base. Russia did not set this up on its own initiative. It was the West that was trying to foment the coup. Russia simply got wind of the plan and turned it to its advantage.
Did you mean to respond to me? I did not allege that Russia set this up. I specifically state that it was western intelligence manipulating Prigozin.
As for being off base, I don’t think so. But pretty much everyone is just guessing at this point.
Larry, the fact that Africa has come up in this…event, let’s call it…reminded me of something. IIRC, Prigrozhin is wanted in the US for some type of fraud. I think Wagner is also listed in the US as some type of “transnational criminal organization”, mainly related to their activities in Africa. A few months back – maybe around the time Prigozhin started crazy-talking there was a push in Washington & Ukraine to label Wagner a terrorist organization. The Ukrainians were also pushing for Russia to be labeled a state sponsor of terrorism. If that had happened, it certainly would have hurt Russia politically in their international stance with allies. And we know the US & UK would have hunted down Wagner guys anywhere they found them & taken them out with no questions asked. (Syria, Africa, etc) I have to wonder if this is at least part of the reason for the Russians deciding, after Bakhmut to reduce risk by requiring the Wagnerites to sign contracts with the MOD & also (supposedly) reducing their MOD contracts with Prigozhin’s other businesses. It would be a way to smoothly eliminate the risk without denigrating Wagner publicly – many Russian citizens do support and respect the Wagner guys, even if they don’t agree with Prigozhin’s stunts. Just phase it out without making a stink. Could be nothing, but food for thought, anyway. It would be a card for the west to play.
Reminds me a bit of how Blackwater was taken down by the IRS & ATF. Interesting aside: In 2011, Eric Prince was invited to Moscow. He went. The Russians wanted his help in forming a PMC. He says he declined.
Larry:
Great analysis as usual. In terms of timing, what are your thoughts on the 6.2-billion-dollar “accounting error” announced by the Pentagon just days prior to this affair? Was this an anticipated pay-off for Prigozhin had all this turned out the way the CIA wanted?
One interesting part for me was how Russia played the western media like a violin. Everything that was happening fit into the fake western narrative perfectly. Weak Russia, divided Russia, Putin hated, revolt just around the corner. None of it was true, but then again, the western media believe their own lies, which is truly hilarious.
Cross-posting …
Chima Okezue
Writes Sharp Focus on Africa
16 hr ago
Liked by Big Serge
@bigserge: Nigerian here. Just wanted to add a few thoughts of my own to your analysis.
In the African countries where Wagner is active, they have local support. For example, a monument was built in Central Africa Republic by a local sculptor to celebrate Wagner’s successful fightback against Jihadist insurgents.
I monitor Russian Telegram Channels and I have heard some of the masked Wagner fighters in the Donbass region say that they wish to return to Africa where things are much easier.
Fact of the matter is that Wagner on the African continent had a free hand to operate with no oversight from Russian MOD at all, and only minimal supervision from Kremlin and the host African state.
So there is a deep resentment from Prigozhin and a faction of his fighters about the subjugation to dictates of Russian MOD in the Ukrainian Theatre of Operations.
In Bakhmut, Wagner could not simply plan and execute its own operations. It had to obey the dictates of Russian MOD, a military bureaucratic entity they did not particularly like or respect.
You can see how Prigohzin was going mad in Bakhmut about not getting the weapons they need.
It was not about whether the munitions were really enough. It was about the fact that Wagner could not get what they demanded upon request as would have been the case in any African nation where they were operating.
If Wagner troops asked the governments of Burkina Faso, Mali or Central Africa Republic to supply certain material to help the local counterinsurgency effort, they always got it without arguments. (Please note that host African countries do pay for some of the weaponry used by Wagner, although not all of it).
Prigozhin and the loyalist core of his fighters just could not adapt themselves to the situation in the SMO Zone in Ukraine. It was just too different from their African experience. Attempts to absorb Wagner into the regular Russian Army was the last straw. So they revolted against Russian MOD and the rest is history.
This is very interesting insight, thanks for sharing it. I’ve always wondered if the constant accusations against Wagner in Africa coming from the UK/US were actually based on fact(s) or because they were becoming an impediment to the UK/US ambitions and operations in Africa. If you have an opinion or insight on that, I’d love to hear it. The US push by some in Washington to label Wagner a terrorist organization was always in relation to their presence in Africa.
Explaining or rationalizing the bizarre is a mugs game.
Pundits will twist themselves into ever tighter Gordian Knots over these bizarre events – that base on what is known, make little logical sense.
While time may slowly release some more facts, they will likely be clouded by the continued release of evolving desired narratives by the various warring sides. It is probable the truth of the matter will only be known to the players directly involved.
The important fact here is that Russia is at war with “the west” and these most recent bizarre events, highlight the true nature of this war – it is winner take all – zero sum – no reverse gear.
The question therefore should be who and when will the next big move take place – these events just increased the temperature and danger of something happening that is unexpected that could result in unexpected retaliation. If the speed of events increases, the potential consequences will be unforgiving.
The level of danger tension has increased significantly!
I have suspected that Russia coopted western intelligence assets a while ago, and have been using them to provide an alternative reality that: Russia is a train-wreck, Putin is only in power because of oligarch support, and the Russian military is a disorganized disaster. Using a high-level insider like Prigozhin to support this intelligence would provide strong confirmation that this alternative reality was true. For me this is the only way to explain how the west has consistently achieved the exact opposite of what they sought to happen in their war on Russia. I you buy into this theory, then it would explain the disastrous results of the Ukrainian offensive so far. Despite endless satellite evidence of elaborate Russian fortifications, the west somehow convinced itself that the whole thing would collapse like a house of cards given the first sign of pressure, and any nay-sayers to the offensive were ignored. Consider the “facts” prior to the offensive:
a) The Russian army didn’t really exist – only Chechens and Wagner really did anything. Every time the Russian army was attacked they fled (i.e. Kherson, Kiev, Kharkov, etc.)
b) The elaborate fortifications that were somehow constructed by the Russians were just for show, and were manned by drunken conscripts who would flee at the first sign of modern western weaponry
c) The Russian attack helicopters that were so effective in Syria, were not going to be a problem.
d) The ace up the west’s sleeve, and the event that would pull the key piece out of Putin’s Jenga tower, would be Wagner’s revolt. With the Russian military in disarray, having lost the land bridge (and probably Crimea), Wagner would ride into Moscow to cheering crowds eager to see the evil Putin tried and executed.
Instead, with the west having again achieved the exact opposite of what was supposed to happen with the offensive, and the fiction about the Russian army dispelled, the only remaining benefit by continuing the charade with Prigozhin was to pretend to mount a coup to smoke out collaborators. We’ll see how this plays out, but I suspect that Wagner will continue to exist in a re-branded form, and the bellwether as to which theory is correct will be whether Prigozhin stays alive.
There seems to be a major flaw in Bryan‘s argumentation where he statesthat in January (!) … »Prigozhin offered a very good deal. In exchange for outside support he would take over Russia, reorient to the West, and leave Ukraine. The offer, at a critical moment when the Ukrainian offensive is faltering, was an offer hard to refuse.« The fault lies in the fact that in January there was neither a Ukrainian offensive nor was is faltering. On the contrary, there was great, great … not even hope, but: conviction in the West that Russia will bite the dust. However, with this as the correct background it seems to me to be even more convincing to assume a CIA / MI5-6 plot with Prigo.
It’s interesting that some pundits are cheering on the ‘head’ of Wagner. Highlights the disconnect with reality. There is no way to erase the reality that Bakhmut has ceased to exist.
Those dead guys will not be resurrected because the MSM never even mentioned them in the first place. Prigozhin did his damage to the enemy and now the enemy loves him? Fickle wishful thinking and fantasy. We really need to take a break from all the Hollywood nonsense, it’s clouding our judgment.
If I didn’t know better, it would seem all those at the top of western authority have been bought and are leading the USA into slavery.
It all seems pretty clear-cut to me. Prigozhin’s “coup” offered exactly what the neocons wanted most of all: their wet-dream made real.
If it were a TV infomercial then one would say that it was precisely targeted, and the target goes by the name of “Victoria Nuland”. She would have been giddy with excitement.
Like any good tease Prigozhin offered so much and then…. delivered nothing.
No money-shot. No shots at all, by the looks of it.
My money’s on Larry here: I think this was all a deliberate pantomime by the Russians, and the West fell for it so hard they are still in denial.
It is probably worth some ex-Kenyan Prime Minister’s time to contact Victoria Nuland and make an offer: hand over her bank details and he’ll park $10million in there for a while.
For safe-keeping, of course, and she can pocket the interest payments. Sweeeet.
She’s one of the Kagans, after all, so it’s certainly worth a try.
The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
I mean he made his fortune by getting insider deals via his buddy Putin, who apparently never read “The Prince”.
Larry, I would suggest the CIA laid the bait late last year as planning for Wagner’s exit to Belarus was well underway in January this year………
https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1673327986676838406
The ease with which Priggy took the bait is rooted in the Battle of Khasham in Feburary 2018 where some 200+ Russians, many of whom were Wagner PMC, were killed in air strikes by the US.
That no one in the know in the west had any notion that this shit show was going to blowup in their faces is indicative of Moscow being water tight.
Look for these signs to see if this was a NATO op.
1. The EU, US, and U.K. will quietly unfreeze Prigozhin’s assets to make up for the billions of $ he just lost in Russia.
2. Prigozhin was recently moving his money out of Russia. I’m certain he would be able to exchange his rubles for the currency of his choice. This would explain why Russia found $45M worth of rubles in one of his tents (unless he was using that for payroll operations)
3. Any future payment from Ukrainians.
BTW all of this is hard to trace, does anyone know how much of his wealth was frozen by the EU, US, and UK?
The important element that seems to me is week in this analysis is the purpose of this “Moebius” (very nice and instructive film) action. Moving troops, even in this situation, does anyway attract attention and suspicion on the war front. The popularity of Putin was anyway to the top. When thinking to the danger of such operation in the actual war situation, is hard to imagine it was done only to move troops and Putin’s power consolidation. The dead of Russian soldiers in this action was pointed by Putin so hard to imagine is not true. Unless there are unknown motives (extremely important) the idea of double agent seems improbable. That Russia secret services knew in advance this action and let them advance to be able to know as much as possible on the actors and script of the film, very possible.
“There is still no consensus about the motive for Yevgeny Prigozhin’s and there is a lot of speculation.”
Should I care about “consensus”? Anyway, consider the motive of the Russian state. Allowing PMCs on a nation’s territory is a invitation to warlordism which is why PMCs are intended to be ‘foreign legions’. The state has a monopoly on bodies of armed men and the use of force in the nation. Russia must remove them from the national territory, especially Wagner PMC (the coup attempt is what can happen to the state when a large and powerful PMC is on the national territory). Doing so, I speculate, significantly reduces Prigozhin’s wealth and status.
Prigozhin’s obstreperous behavior may be related to severe financial pressures (who knows who he is beholden to financially) due to the cancellation of MOD contracts, for example, and the immanent end of the the “private” in Wagner’s ‘PMC’.
It is his behavior which is the cause of the mounds of “speculation” littering the internet. Leading a Wagner army to depose and arrest Shoigu and Gerasimov in the Kremlin is lunacy. Speculation attempts to normalize this by finding sane reasons to explain the lunacy.
Some folks, under intense pressure, just act crazy. If I were Putin and had unanswered questions regarding the attempted coup, I’d put Prigozhin on suicide watch.
Wagner was never related to neoliberal thinking versus nationalism. Babitch also makes this point because he hates russian liberals and the West. Wagner was formed for a legal reason and should not be compared to other PMC’s. Like Blackwater mercenaries from private contractors in the US. Or the French Foreign Legion, which after the fall of the Berlin Wall was mostly Poles and Russians. Most convicted. Wagner was formed to support the Donbass against the Kiev regime, a conflict that Moscow did not want to enter officially. And over time, Russia gained a very effective professional military force that went on to support other foreign governments on other continents without the problems associated with regular forces. Like the amateurism of conscripts, dead soldiers and others. And for conscrip, Wagner’s existence is also positive. It prevents them from going to fight for Africa against their will, as in the past.
Wagner’s big problems began when he started fighting alongside regular Russian forces. Who never looked favorably on Wagner’s professionalism and privileges, such as the best equipment. Like in Syria. Because what makes Wagner an extraordinary force is its professionalism. They are not supermen. Like an amateur tennis player facing a professional player. It has always been like this between the Foreign Legion and the French army! And apparently the problems “ended” for Wagner when the battle was transferred to Russian territory. Where, constitutionally, Wagner cannot operate. And Prigozhin’s crazy behavior came to light. Wagner’s big mistake! That not even the Council of Commanders of the Wagner followed. In general neither the Commander of Vostok, Aleksander Khodakovsky. criticizes Wagner fighters. Criticize is Prigozhin!!
It’s my opinion that if there were to be “a coup/mutiny in Washington, D.C. against Joe Biden”, most members of Congress would enthusiastically rally around Joe Biden and his “handlers” and kiss their feet. These “loyalty no matter what” members know “which side their bread is buttered on” regardless if they are left, right or some other “pedigree” and are in “lockstep” with a dictatorship.
Perhaps, underlying all of this, is something very simple.
I think what Prigozhin was trying to do was preserve and expand the private sector version he created of the very much public sector Russian Army. The people at the top of this are public sector lifers. It’s not their fault. It’s the system. It doesn’t mean they’re stupid. Indeed, probably far from it. But not very likely to be doing much thinking outside the box or tolerating some civilian upstart who could.
As a young electric engineer I began my employment in the public sector. (City of Johannesburg’s Electricity Department SA.) I got to play with some very big toys but found working in the public sector a stultifying experience, so having learned all I was going to learn, I then moved to the private sector.
Wagner PMC is a Russian government asset….it was formed for very specific special State sanctioned tasks. It is mostly made up of ex Russian servicemen and is light infantry….it’s supporting arms units are regular army attachments allocated to them….like the Chechen units. These light units are specialists in fighting in built up area and also have high psychological warfare values…..the Moslem head choppers reputation from the Chechen wars and Wagner mercenary penal battalion cutthroats have very real psychological impacts on enemy units in the opposite line. Wagner complaints of insufficient munitions publicly is just a dramatic feign of weakness….this mutiny is another feign of weakness. Cardboard boxes of red high denomination Russian rubles found in Wagner’s St Petersburg office…tanks on the street in Rostov when Wagner has none….. transportation of Main battle tanks up hwy 4 on low beds for 400 miles is ludicrous and interestingly alleged shoot downs of multiple electronic warfare rotary wing aircraft and the Il22M Zebra aerial command post that flies at nearly 12 km ceiling…..with a MANPAD? So who benefits? Ukrainian forces sensing weakness run headlong into Russian minefields….. Western intelligence services try to take advantage of perceived weakness so they initiate assets? It is my understanding many flights filled up with Russian citizens suddenly flying out of the country….did seasoned Russian troops suddenly leave the Donbas to concentrate quite close to Northern Ukraine? Western pundits ejaculated copiously to this incident so I guess drycleaners also benefited but I feel it’s doubtful they had the influence to initiate this operation.
If this was simply exactly what it seemed, whether Prigozhin’s actions were a protest against Shoigu/Gerasimov and the Russian MOD or an attempted coup (with a hidden hand behind the facts), it matters little: What Prigozhin has done is unambiguously treason.
From my view the entire performance was in fact an oligarch or perhaps Western funded coup that was meant to topple Putin. Shoigu and Gerasimov were merely the cover to convince Wagner troops to march on the Kremlin.
Let us not overlook the timing of this putsch at exactly the point of the AFU’s weakest moment on the battlefield which undoubtedly implies a hidden hand. Possibly the ideal moment would have been if the Ukrainian counter-offensive had produced some spectacular results, but that has not been the case. Consequently, Prigozhin had no choice but to continue with the plan he (they) had been working on for months, and the mutiny began clearly prematurely as he could not continue with his histrionic lies indefinitely (after already being caught in such lies multiple times.) He may have relied on liberal oligarchs and hidden sympathizers in the Kremlin to have risen up against Putin at a key moment during the struggles, but it was precisely the lack of progress in the Ukrainian counteroffensive the reason the backers may have gotten cold feet and the plan turned sour.
Let’s also not overlook that Chechen troops of Ramzan Kadyrov were rushed to Rostov and were prepared to fight Wagner down. Chechen troops would not have been mobilized from the front if this whole Prigozhin affair had been a charade.
The reason why this buffoon has reached the point he has reached is clear: money. Prigozhin, in his confrontation with the MOD, has been losing one after the other all his multiple business with the state, and in the short term he was to be deprived of the main part of his troops as the MOD has passed a law whereby all mercenaries must sign a contract with the MOD (from July 1st), hence the haste to start the mutiny. Without state support, Prigozhin would have to go back to selling hot dogs in St Petersburg’s streets.
The oligarchs, especially those who have been in prison (for robbing women on the streets of St Petersburg, among other crimes), are only driven by money. To romanticize this criminal is an attack on common sense.
Putin may have had not other better choice but to let him go to avoid bloodshed, a serious and intractable problem in Rostov, and a severe distraction and demoralization of Russian troops in Ukraine. That is why, for the time being, Prigozhin is still alive and in Belarus. Prigozhin, and those behind him (5th and 6th columns) will sooner or later pay for this betrayal, or otherwise Russia may have just suffered a major demoralizing blow. Putin and his command may have been gravely weakened due to the perception that Prigozhin “won” and no one was punished for what he did.
At the end, Putin’s most serious mistake is that he has ignored the advice (five centuries ago) of Machiavelli:
“Mercenaries and auxiliaries are useless and dangerous; and if one holds his state based on these arms, he will stand neither firm nor safe; for they are disunited, ambitious and without discipline, unfaithful, valiant before friends, cowardly before enemies; they have neither the fear of God nor fidelity to men, and [one’s own] destruction is deferred only so long as the attack is; for in peace one is robbed by them, and in war by the enemy. The fact is, that they have no other attraction or reason for keeping the field than a trifle of stipend, which is not sufficient to make them willing to die for you. They are ready enough to be your soldiers whilst you do not make war, but if war comes they take themselves off or run from the foe….”
Let’s hope that this is not the case with Lukashenko…
Just my opinion…
Collateral benefits of again exposing the propaganda function of western media, thereby further undermining their credibility.
This was Bay of Pigs 2.0.
The Eastman memo and Jan. 6 already proved your closing hypothetical.
The tell that this was aa CIA op was Blinken’s repeated emphasis that this was an “internal” Russian affair and US respects Russia’s “internal affairs.
The Blinken emphasis was later repeated by Biden’s open denial: “No US role” a story I which US media repeated the “internal” slogan.
The “internal” slogan is serving exactly the same propaganda purposes as the term “unprovoked” did.
I saw a report on Twitter (could have been fake of course) which listed multiple army sections which defected during the coup and at least one was from the nuclear forces. If true or not, it triggered the thought that if the US would have managed to bring a critical portion of the nuclear forced under their control by defectors, it would be the most severe existential threat to Russia one can imagine. It would basically render the power of nuclear deterrent invalid. It would enable the US to risk a first strike without fearing an fatal retaliation strike. Even if some limited forces remains the psychopaths in Washington might be willing to take that risk. Dont forget, for them the loss of global dominance is an existential threat. They are too degenerated to survive without the exploitation of the vital Global south. If that would be the case and Russia detected that threat it would justify that weird theatre play we are witnessing and the lies of Putin to the public would be justified in light of that threat. The coup has likely exposed many defectors and there is no doubt that there are many. The US had in the 90s and early 2000 years plenty time and open space to install those.
Whatever the reality is we dont know some crucial puzzle piece as all explanations and theories have some contradictions and weaknesses.
Remember when Russia retreated from Kiev after the start of the war and ppl came up with all kind of theories. Some made sense, but the true reason was because retreating from Kiev has been part of the peace agreement which was not revealed until recently. Without knowledge of that peace agreement it was basically impossible to figure out the true motives.
We might be in a similar situation where secret information is held back which prevents the public to guess the real motive behind the events.
I hope my thought regarding the US trying or managing to get control over the nuclear forces are wrong as otherwise we are in the most dangerous situation ever. It could be a reason for executing a first strike for Russia even. The somehow fearful reaction from the US might confirm that. At least it signals that the US got caught at something very nasty.
Very interesting interview – in Russian BUT can be watched with translation – with a Russian analyst: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt2qH1Sk4dc
The Wagner group got the Syria option: go home, join the army, or join your leader in Idlib. No reprisals. That has got to appeal to Ukrainian soldiers who’re wavering. If it was a coup, the venom has been drained from it. If it wasn’t, Wagner are nicely positioned in Belarus to join the attack.
And for what purpose Larry? I simply don’t buy it that Russia would do such a thing, risk a lot, and lifes of their pilots (if that’s true, seems so) for being able to move troops around. I didn’t see that much movement, they can move troops to Belorussia or anywhere they like. And lastly west analysts (with all their flaws) won’t be fooled by it either, they look, see and track where the troops are regardless of what Russia says or does. That doesn’t make sense I’m afraid. There was something else going on but the whole thing was rather strange with around Prigozhin and why Russia didn’t react sooner etc. etc. More questions than answers, we’re missing some vital pieces of the puzzle.
Who are (or ‘were’) the council of commanders of Wagner? According to the narrative, none of them supported Prigozhin’s coup attempt, but what were they doing about Prigozhin’s at least criminal and possibly treasonous, speeches and videos of the previous several months, and I assume he said more to them than we may know of. Were some ‘commanders’ keeping the MOD informed?
He could not have done it by himself. Some of the commanders must have been on it, just like some soldiers. Some were just following orders. Now everyone is playing innocent. One can not expect much honor among criminals.
Prigozhin is a jew. That’s All you need to know about his Actions and Motivation. (((they))) NEVER have any Loyalty to whatever Nation they Infest; they worship Satan and Mammon, HATE all other Races and People (read (((their))) ‘talmud’) and until their Control of the ‘banks’ is Broken, and they are Driven to Hel to the last Snake, the World will be in Turmoil.
From my perspective Larry theory makes the most sense. The only sense in fact. We all saw P theatrical cursing of Shoigu etc…. that is simply unacceptable in wartime. Were it genuine he would have had a detachment knocking on his door with an offer he couldnt refuse. Hence it was theatre . Again, at any stage of this blatent farce , a small group of spetznaz could have ended it rapidly.
Its not hard to discern truth from reality . Reality is perfect, there are no holes, everything fits together exactly because its fact.So if there a hole in the story, thats makes no sense then. Voila its farce.
This story like many others looks like a low budget drama . Because so many people Want to believe…. wishfull thinking ignores the obvious flaws…….and will accept barely believable excuses . Will perform mental gymnastics to support their desires and beliefs.
It will become obvious in the next months.