Have mouth, will talk. I guess that should be my moniker. Had a very enjoyable day doing separate chats with Judge Napolitano and Gonzalo Lira. Most of the conversation is devoted to the the leak to the internet of classified U.S. produced intelligence. Enjoy.
Gonzalo Lira hosted Ray McGovern and me. Ray offers some amazing historical anecdotes. He’s a treasure.
Jim Christian says
Talk Larry, we insist. I’m a little sick, sho nuff, Spec forces in Ukraine now, according to Drudge a the leaks.
Steve Greenwood says
Larry, saw you on GL’s roundtable today and the highlight was when you had to take control due to the technical issues. LOL As always, you were the most informative of all.
Its unclear to me why everybody is ignoring the obvious on these documents. They appear to issue from an American source. They appear devoid of any actionable intel. They appear devoid of anything the Russians wouldn’t already know or suspect. The information lacks significance outside of a narrow corridor of its effect on perception. They are clearly not aimed at convincing the Russians of anything.
Who then? The media has been hyping “an offensive” for months. The weather will soon allow for an offensive. The Russians have been moving the ball for months (infrastructure strikes, consolidation in Belarus, Bahkmut, etc.) All of this looks like Russia is winning to your average person.
Seems to me “the leak” is designed to reinforce confirmation bias. Causal observers already know Russia is winning. TPTB know this. What better way to overcome expectations than to lower them (consistent with what the public already believes), do better than predicted then use the media to amplify the “surprise” victory over expectations? This is disinformation 101.
TPTB know what “the offensive” will consist of. They know because the Ukrainian force is now nothing but a NATO-created proxy, irrespective of what the documents allege. They know because there is a NATO air exercise scheduled for May. And they know the “the offensive” is going to be a lot more significant than currently predicted.
This is the only option that really makes sense to me. Clearly the information in the documents lacks true significance, except to create a psychological expectation. The Russians are experienced enough with their own counterintelligence networks to recognize the deficiencies of the information in the documents. Only the general public lacks the experience to interpret them properly.
What that suggests is that there will be a counteroffensive, it will be bigger than is currently anticipated by the general public, and TPTB believe “the Ukrainians” will do well enough that it will exceed the public expectations on the matter.
To what end? That’s the real question.
Steve’s comment is germane. In my recent article on substack on the “Counteroffensive” I purposely avoided talking about the “leaks”.
First, because those that I saw provided no new or relevant information.
Second, because there area apparently a LOT of documents that have not been made available to the public.
Third because media like the BBC, the New Yorker, etc claim to have seen more than they are publishing and are not publishing the documents “in the interests of national security”.
Fourth, because some of the information may be wrong or inaccurate . Without open access to the complete cache we can’t know.
The significance of these “leaks” is not in the “facts” that they provide.
For the most part, they appear to be part of PowerPoint presentations that is part of Pentagon culture — visual arguments representing points of view–often supplemented with print-outs. The intention of such presentations is always to bolster the position of the presenter’s authority to look like they know something when they don’t.
Since nobody has actually made the entire cache available for public discussion and analysis, all comments on them are mere speculation. We are all looking through the keyhole trying to figure out what’s going on. And THAT may be the actual purpose of the release. To get people interested. To get people talking.
“Keyhole-ism” stimulates public interest and public discussion.
While the media can attempt to bury Sy Hersh’s articles on Nordstream — the ambiguity of these “leaks” and the disorganized reaction of the government to their release gets the public talking — and discussing — and maybe gradually thinking. The immediate reaction of the government is to find the leaker, and presumably hang, draw and quarter him / her.
Those of us who analyze this war knew long BEFORE the leak that:
a.) NATO was heavily involved in UAF operations
b.) NATO special forces have been deployed in the Ukraine if only for training and direction
c.) The UAF CAN cobble together large numbers of men for human wave attacks in an attempt to overcome BTGs up close & dirty
d.) UAF equipment resources, including AFV, tanks, artillery, and especially AD were initially mostly Soviet and depleted rapidly
Now, we await the “counteroffensive”. With Russia fully prepared, new weapons, and freer use of airpower, the Russians are hoping. I doubt the Poles will get involved — unless the Russians offer them what used to be Polish Ukraine– but there would have to be be quid pro quo.
Russia cannot be allowed to win in Ukraine. — US politicians
A win for Russia in Ukraine is a defeat for NATO. — EU politicians
All I know is what I read in the papers. — Will Rogers
There are a reported 100-120k NATO troops near Ukraine’s southern and western borders.
The Poles, thus far, have been willing to fill at least some body bags for the Ukrainian “cause”. How many more are they willing to contribute? In exchange for…?
There was a lot of armor on the docks at Gdańsk recently and a few mentions, here and there, of armor being shipped to Europe (i.e. not Ukraine) over the past year. One destination was, supposedly, Greece…?
Last year, early in the war, the Biden Administration rushed to replace its B61-11 nuclear gravity bombs in Europe with improved B61-12s. The improvement? The dash 12s can now be carried by any NATO combat aircraft, whereas the dash 11s were highly restricted.
The leaks appear to confirm one aspect of the war, that Ukraine is running out of AD systems and missiles. Does US/NATO have the stocks required to replenish their missiles or replace the destroyed systems? Doesn’t Greece use the Russian S-300 AD system?
Zelensky has been screaming for US air support, or at least F-16s, for many months. And now, in mid-to-late April, the US and NATO will begin their largest ever aerial war exercises, including shipping in US ANG units to participate. Simultaneously, ground exercises will also be held, and it’s been reported the US is tapping into its European pre-positioned stockpiles for these war games.
But, not to worry, a US general reassured the EU press a few days ago, these exercises are simply meant to prepare NATO for an Article 5 response to a hypothetical aggressor.
And let’s ignore, for the moment, the W76 fuse upgrade for US SLBMs and Russian reports the US is making bio-weapon components in Ukraine.
With Russia fully prepared, new weapons, and freer use of airpower… — julianmacfarlane
Exactly. And now our stage is set — it’s the eve of the Ukrainian spring offensive…
Timothy G Falke says
Hi Larry, I was listening to judging Freedom yesterday with a Lt Col with a possible scenario that the documents were leaked on purpose by the Administration to get congress to spend more money on the war. Your thoughts?
Larry Johnson says
I think that is nonsense. What in those documents justifies more spending?
I love this dude because he appears his own man, not swayed one way or the other, Russia (+China?) vs the West. Doesn’t mean he is right but at least he displays original thinking. In short supply these days.
Looking forward to listening to both shows.
I’ve been super busy of late, so very much behind on the latest developments. One presumes Russia is still running out of ammunition, adopting human wave tactics and using crimes against humanity as a weapon of war???
The Daily Enquirer says
Andy, You forgot kidnapping Ukrainian children and putting them to work in gulags stuffing high explosives into shells with their poor little hands. And what’s happened to all the twins?
Thing is though, why only a 45 second snippet from Napolitano?
HMS Terror says
Worse than that. The Russians are down to their last reserves of shovels.
Zaporozhie Avenger says
Russia is running out of priests, and churches.
Who would be most disconcerted by these leaks, Ukraine regime and its inner circle!
They are already culling each other internally for the truest believers.
Everything is Ukraine first, the media of victories and low losses is primarily for Ukrainian folk to still turn up to fight and support war effort.
The judge talked with tony chafer today, tony says the FBI is going to handle the investigation, something tells me the leak might be a precursor to get the FBI in to the dod/pentagon and start purging people who arnt getting with the whitehouse total war program..
Curt Nichols says
Excuse this tangent. But. FBI raiding a Boston hotel room in conjunction with US Army Special Operations Command.
When we lose overseas, they will turn the Praetorian Guard loose on who they truly fear. American citizens.
The military has been doing a “woke” purge that is in reality a seizure of power. When Milley laughed about ignoring Trump’s commands? You folks don’t understand. They aren’t even pretending to be a nation of law and rule anymore. Your only actual hope is a hot war with China that destroys Washington DC and the power structure.
And you know what? 11 million murdered men, women, and children around the world. While American citizens cheered it on. Karma. Justice. Shit rolls around. Whatever you want to call it. We shall reap our whirlwind.
The covers are coming off. The true reality of this country is being exposed. And it is on a very short timeline now. What amuses me is the people that will be surprised. But surprised or not. Punishment comes.
Wow.. thank you for that link. Thankfully they were not on an anti-terrorist exercise, otherwise they would have shot that innocent man. He must have been very confused and shocked.
I love Ray’s story about the British told by his Grandfather, that is truly an Irish wit, I really enjoy listening to you gentleman. Speaking of 5 eyes, little potato Trudeau seems to be having some issues with his foundation.
Ray is a gem to listen to – big heart and old time wisdom.
If one can understand the historic malevolence of the British elite and deceitfulness of British politicians, one is well over 50% in understanding history and geopolitics.
k. talaat says
I am of the same thinking as Ray that these leaks are intended to stop this war, released by people with light in their hearts.
For all those that despair, remember the duality of our existence, Evil is always matched by Good.
One good we can do, is rid our country and the world from the scourge of these demonic Neocons and push hard, real hard to ban them from politics and government. We should shame them, as they do to others, by calling them anti-humans. Those who know the true history of the damage these anti-humans have unleashed on this planet, will agree something needs to be done.
Outstanding Round Table! Well worth the 2 hours. You guys covered everything knowledgeably, thoughtfully, and eloquently. Nothing left to say, IMO.
Still to watch the Judge video.
Thank you Larry for posting link.
On further reflections on the Round Table, I have to agree a big risk for the next stage of the NATO proxy war with Russia – now that we are fast approaching the proverbial “last Ukrainian” – is for Poland to enter the war. I do not think it will necessarily be Europe wide (though certainly a risk), but a fight to the last Pole.
This would be the neocon war-hawks in DC doubling down on stupid, and Poland only too willing for their self-inflated place in history and their Russophobia to lead them down this path.
Would have been good to get Ray’s views on this.
These are outstanding talk shows matching an amazing, unraveling reality.
Well worth listening to and chewing over.
Bance Lawrence says
How & why is it Gonzalo Lira is still alive and able to speak as he does from inside Ukranian territory?
Why is he not on the Ukraine kill list?
Did he make a deal with the devil? Is he ‘controlled opposition’? etc
Good question. Andrei of The Saker blog, who didn’t mince words nor suffer fools lightly, held Gonzalo Lira in very high regard and above reproach in this regard.
Good enough for me.
Gonzalo, Ray and Larry
Amazing and truly terrifying stuff being discussed.
Thank you all three for you time and willingness to share.
Deep respect form Norway
Michael Droy says
Thanks very much for the 40 sec sound bite with the Judge.
But 2 hours with Gonzalo Lira.
I only work 1 day a week, but there is just not enough time to follow the written stuff on the topics you and others cover, let alone all the podcasts. Yourself, Brian Bertelic, Scot Ritter, Gonzalo, Martinez and so on. Others like the Duran which for no fault of theirs I have to exclude from my read list because of time.
Larry, you are one of the most concise and clear speakers of the lot. And your topic range fits tightly within my set of interests. I’m really happy to spend 25 mins listening to you. But 2 hours is just a big turn off. Literally.
Hope you take this just as honest feedback.
I could never devote enough time to sit down and watch a 2-hour ANYTHING of people just talking. There is nothing to actually need watching. I listen while I do mindless stuff. Also great for passing time on long drives or while shopping…anything with Lira actually REQUIRES me not watching since he comes across, imho, as a phony.
I think Ray goes off on too many tangents myself. But seems certain viewers appreciate that so I don’t complain too much.
Certainly he is old school, and we need him.
Quite brillant man.
Jack Gordon says
Frankly, I have never liked the notion of organizations like the CIA whose lifeblood is secrecy. For me, just as mold grows in dark, damp places, so corruption grows in places hidden from public view. (I’m a very conservative Catholic and I know from recent history that secrecy has devastated the Church around the world. What I know of US history since the creation of the OSS tells me that what is true for the ecclesiastical realm holds true for the secular as well.) That said, I think if the CIA had been manned for the last 70 years by men like Larry and Ray, the world would not find itself in the lamentable condition we witness today. Larry for his abiding sense of honesty and fealty to justice, and Ray for his unfailing sense of humor and encyclopedic memory, had they typified the general makeup of the agency’s cadre, I suspect would have avoided most of the immoral disasters of the last 70 some odd years that Langley has perpetrated around the globe.
I agree with you. Secrecy and lies go hand in hand. It is a form of deception, and not to be confused with privacy.
My privacy is about me and only me. What I keep secret affects others and leads them to believe things are one way when they are not.
But it is not black or white.
Lies can be white lies and sometimes forgiven, just as “the truth that’s told with bad intent can beat all the lies you can invent” to quote William Blake.
Totally Awesome Larry. This podcast with Gonzalo & Ray gave me a coherent way of thinking about those leaked documents. You really made a compelling case for why an American would make this stuff public. I’m praying you’re right about us having a few cooler heads in DC who want to prevent the NeoCons from melting the Earth’s surface. Hope those cooler heads prevail.
Anyway, you and Ray would be great guys to work with. I love your senses of humor, and they way y’all think. Blessings to the three of you!
Darth Readius says
We know if this had been under Trump there would be a “leak” every day.
The fact it took them around a year or more for someone to leak something seems to indicate to me that it took that long for a conservative to grow a spine and act or a liberal to grow tired of seeing Ukraine get pummeled.
The leak seems to be trying to show what is happening without damaging the US/Ukraine cause, am I right?
I think it’s someone inside who is growing discontented with what’s happening and trying to inform people. Granted I don’t know what all is in the docs but seems to be outdated info and relatively harmless compared to what it could have been.
It doesn’t make sense that Russia would do this and expose their inside source. It doesn’t make sense the US would do this and make themselves look worse than they are. And since it took to long the leaker has to be someone who supported it for a long time and finally had enough.
Just my thoughts.
I enjoyed the Roundtable – I hope Larry and Gonzalo keep going with these and expect the audience will grow now that these US Intell docs have been leaked. I had overlooked Larry´s point about initially discovering these documents on a pro Donbass website which means the Pentagon American leaker or leakers wanted the Russians to know but it was the Russians who went public with them.
Gonzalo expecting war with China should be dependent on who is in the Whitehouse at the time RFK or Trump wont follow the Obama-Biden policy and the fallout from the coming surrender of UKraine will give Macron et al in EU a chance to live up to his words on his flight home from Beijing – the defacto end of NATO
Thank you for your efforts, Larry. We watched the interview with you and Ray McGovern, (another nice person), and it was good to see you both appearing optimistic that the leak could be beneficial in preventing escalation. I really want to see the suffering in Ukraine end and avoid more in Taiwan.