If you are listening to the U.S. media about the war in Ukraine, Russia is struggling and on the ropes. But the map and the following videos tell a different story:
Russia continues to advance on eight fronts in Ukraine. If you look at the purple circle on the far right side of the map (this is the western border of Donetsk), the Russian forces and their Ukrainian allies (the Luhansk People’s Republic and the Donetsk People’s Republic) are encircling the largest remnant of Ukraine’s Army.
Here is the map from two weeks ago:
In carrying out its “special military operation” (i.e., invasion) on a broad front, Russia is avoiding leveling cities. The plan appears to be to encircle major cities, cut them off and then, like a boa constrictor, slowly choke their prey into submission.
The Russian, Donetsk and Luhansk forces moving west from the Donbas are cleaning up mine fields and destroying fortified positions. The West has tried unsuccessfully to claim that Putin expected to have this all in hand in a week or so. I have seen no such claim by Putin in public. Putin’s directive to the Russian military is clear and simple–demilitarize Ukraine and destroy the Nazi elements.
Ukraine, with the help of the western media, has mounted a very effective media propaganda campaign. Unfortunately for Ukraine, it is only whipping up moral support for Ukraine in the West. NATO and the United States have made it clear they are not ready to put western military forces into the fray.
Here is a counter-propaganda video put on today by Russia. It begins with a piece produced by the Ukrainians touting all of their military equipment. The Russians then show what they have done on the ground to that equipment and the soldiers manning it (Warning–this is graphic and harsh):
Western media reports are wrong about Russia’s alleged failure to take Mariupol–Russia is making steady progress taking control of Mariupol. Here are a couple of videos.
The neo-Nazi AZOV battalion comprises the military resistance in Mariupol. Russia gave them till midnight to surrender (that was 6pm edt). We will know by 3pm edt whether the Russians could deliver on their warning.
Ukraine is fighting a defensive war in isolated pockets. I have seen no evidence that Kiev is providing resupply or reinforcements. There is no evidence of another Ukrainian Army mounting a counter-offensive to take the pressure off of what is left of the AZOV battalion. This is not complex analysis–if you are surrounded and forced to fight a defensive battle without resupply or reinforcements, your ability to continue as a combat effective unit rapidly deteriorates. The following video is in Russian but the images tell the story. You will see the Russian unit discover and destroy a weapons cache of the Ukrainian fighters:
Here is a video showing Chechen troops hoisting a flag over the last building of the District Prosecutor’s Office of the Levoberezhny District:
For those who want to argue this is Russian propaganda I have a simple question–if Zelensky’s military is still viable and strong why are we not seeing any video from news reporters loyal to the government in Kiev reporting on the ground from Mariupol or Kharkiv? I have a simple answer–the Ukrainian military is shattered as an intact force and can no longer conduct multiple operations on multiple fronts. Reporters are not safe on the Ukrainian frontlines. Here is another critical datapoint–if the Ukrainian Air Force was still intact and operationally effective it would be conducting Combat Air support operations over Mariupol. But that is not happening. The neo-Nazi units on the ground have no air support. There is no artillery support either. Why?
Ask yourself another question–if the remaining Ukrainian forces engaging the Russians decided on a tactical withdrawal to a stronger defensive position, where would they go? And would they be able to move? Russia’s control of the air has increased not diminished in the last four weeks. The bulk of the fragmented Ukrainian Army is deployed east of the Dnieper River. In other words, any attempt to effect a tactical retreat will require them to cross a major river that only has a limited number of bridges. All of those roadways and bridges can be quickly eliminated by Russian cruise missiles. The Russians do not need to put pilots at risk and the Ukrainians no longer have any effective air defense capable of downing drones/missiles.
What I’ve been looking for. I hope it’s all true as this be one of the bigger absolute lies the MSM has peddled. It would not surprise me at all. I always took the Ukrainian maternity ward stuff to be fake so we’ll see. I found you from reading David Stockman’s contracorner.
One other data point I neglected to put in the article. If the Ukrainian Air Force was still viable why are they not conducting Combat Air Support to the AZOV thugs in Mariupol?
Hello Larry!
Thanks for your nice summary. You wondered why no air support is available for Azov in Mariupol? First reason you already mentioned, but second one may be related to the fact pointed out by the Saker is, as long as there exists powerful far right sector, peace deal with russians is impossible.
It seems that NATO gang will not accept defeat so easily. They are planning an second round with escalation using the hysterical and heinous Poland to threaten the Russian army . Belarus may then enter the game more visibly.
The NATO gang is playing it’s reputation and credibility and they would not stop until they get a ‘victory’
I believe that we are close to a mini nuclear attack and Poland should know that they will be the first to suffer.
Putin will not budge .. it is now a confrontation of two power decided to win. Putin will never accept that Russia gets the fate of Yougoslavia.
China is the only country that could intervene to stop this dangerous escalation. Japan who suffered Hiroshima will certainly take China’s side. Europe will fall into a long depression while the Arab world and Asia will bloom.
Larry:
Thank you for creating a great site. I just found out about it the other day. Based on your background, the general ineptitude of our leaders over the last 22 years, and the coup against Trump, is there anyone in the intelligence community that supports the country? I don’t see how we survive as a nation with the schools, the media, politicians, and big business working against the nation. The Ukranian conflict should have never happened. Like the US, Russia is entitled to a sphere of influence around its borders. Additionally, Putin’s hand was forced by the militarization of Ukraine by the US and NATO. Additionally, God only knows what the bio-research facilities were developing. Growing up, I had faith in my God and Country and now I am left with only faith in my God. I do not see how any of this ends well.
Larry thank you for your updates. I got to know you from your posts in Pat Lang’s Website. I think you are one of the most honest persons who tells the truth, in a world truth is a very very rare commodity. Thanks again
Two questions, Larry.
1. Eventually the truth will out. How will the severely misled Western public be let down? When the truth bomb hits it will be shattering. Especially since inflation and food shortages loom.
2. Some Tweeters are making a big deal about Biden’s speech to the 82nd Airborne which hints that they will actually be put into Ukraine. What do you make of this?
Thanks.
Larry, thank you once again for the report.
One consistent theme throughout the MSM is Russia’s “heavy” or “severe” losses. Considering the sources are Ukraine officials, and “unamed” govt officials, and then repeated verbatim by serial liars, I personally don’t take it at face value.
Is there any reliable information on Russia’s losses? Logic tells me that Russia is going to paint a picture favorable to itself, but I haven’t even seen anything with info sourced from them.
What’s your take?
For that matter, what’s your take on Ukraine’s real losses?
After posting this, I saw Andrei Martyanov’s write-ups from today and Wednesday concerning Russian losses. So, there is info out there.
The Russians seem to be relatively straight forward and honest with their propaganda (surely, in comparison to the snakes in the US govt). Do you think their figures are reliable?
thank you for your analysis larry , i dont know if anyone pressured you to kowtow the USG propaganda narrative but you showed your character by sticking to your conviction and your words like a true patriot..
meanwhile i was saddened by the state of SST and col lang , they posted nonstop media narrative propaganda nonsense , basically a tag team of Lang and TTG.. Once the col was anti neocons and warmongers then suddenly as if a switch was thrown he become a loyal lapdog of neocons..
then i realized the good guys that were banned by lang must be doing good , you and PA ..
keep going larry , while many pretenders showed their true face and cowardice , your posts are shining truth and facts over the baghdad bob level analysis of col lang
Very much agree with comments about lang and TTG! i was astonished by their switch to a role of another media shill.
Applaud Larry getting the hell away from that shill site.
The Russian military recently said that they would limit their objective to consolidating Donetsk. As reported on Zerohedge.com. Does not this indicate that they are in trouble? They are abandoning the objective of taking over Ukraine. Your thought?
Taking over Ukraine was never the objective. Demilitarize and denazify. That’s it. But you misstate what the Russians have said. They are not limiting action of Donetsk.
How do you demilitatize and denazify without taking over all of Ukraine? Unoccupied territory invites guerrilla warfare. Worst case for Russia.
How can there be guerrilla warfare against Russia in territory that it is not occupying?
How did North Vietnam conduct geurilla warfare against the South Vietnam? The South never occupied the North.
Because you put Ukrainians who favor Russia in charge and let them deal with it. Guerrilla warfare? Russians are not foreigners in Ukraine. Quite a different world from Nazi occupiers.
There’s already evidence of Russian-installed local governments getting a lot of hate from Ukrainians. There’s been a provincial official already assassinated in his car on the way to work.
Especially when Russians have laid waste to cities like Mariupol with shelling and bombing, any puppet government they install is going to have a really hard time with legitimacy and uprising.
Great question; With Russia likely not taking the whole country and now dropping both those demands in negotiations recently, I’m not sure how they’ll achieve their stated aims.
Thanks, Larry! Congratulations on new site, I have followed you for some time, starting when your previous site was active. I am certainly supportive of your move away from posting on that other site.
Do you or anyone else have a recent count of the number of Russian generals killed in the Ukraine operation? I am getting a ton of garbage about the number from a “friend” who lives in WaPo land an is subject to a constant stream of cia bagdag bob reports.
No doubt, the nato snipers have been active.
Thanks in advance.
more than a month old. what’s the situation now?