With each passing day, the Ukrainian Army is being carved up and decimated in Bakhmut. To use a cinematic metaphor, this is a preview of the coming attraction, with Ukraine facing intense pressure to launch a counter offensive that will push the Russians out of Ukraine. Ain’t going to happen.
Take a look at the following video. Yes, it is but one isolated anecdotal account of the slaughter in Bakhmut, but it rings true and provides a chilling picture of the desperate state of Ukrainian forces in that battle..
Even If Ukraine is able to scrounge up troops and vehicles that surpass anything the Russians have in place on the front-lines in the Donbass (a dubious assumption), it still lacks the artillery, air support, logistics and ammunition to sustain such an attack.
How do I know? Very simple. Just look at how Ukraine currently is performing in Bakhmut, Ugledar, and Avdevka. In every case, Ukrainian forces are retreating, albeit slowly, rather than blunting the Russian offensive. The following image (taken from liveuamap.com, a pro-Ukrainian site) shows the harrowing situation the Ukrainian troops confront.
Ukraine, which in theory should have an advantage by fighting from defensive positions, has failed to stop the slow but steady advance of Russian troops all along the line of contact. Instead of attacking and destroying Russian lines of communications that supply the Russian forces, Ukraine is launching artillery and HIMARS missile strikes on civilian targets. Those attacks do nothing to weaken Russia’s tactical and strategic situation.
The seven blue circles visible on the map signify locations where air raid warnings are sounding on April 25. This means the Russians hitting these sites with fixed wing aircraft to deliver 500 kg glide bombs and explosive laden drones. The effect is devastating for the Ukrainians on the receiving end.
These strikes also confirm the assessment contained in one of the leaked pieces of U.S. intelligence that Ukraine’s air defense system (ADS) has been destroyed and Ukraine lacks a layered ADS to fend off Russian attacks. Russian military sources claim they are inflicting an average of 500 fatalities on the Ukrainian troops. In other words, in the last 60 days the Ukrainians have suffered at least 30,000 KIA across the 950 km front. Ukraine does not have a limitless supply of manpower.
No amount of happy talk in Washington or the capitals of other NATO countries alters the dire tactical situation confronting Ukraine. If you look at the changes on the liveuamap during the last six months, it is Russia, not Ukraine, that is relentlessly attacking all along the line of contact. Russia is conducting a brutal war of attrition and Ukraine is willingly sending irreplaceable forces into the maw of destruction. How is Ukraine going to mount a credible counter offensive without adequate air support, an exhausted air defense system, a weakened tank force, shortages of artillery and missiles that cannot be readily replaced and a chaotic logistics system that is failing to keep front-line troops fully supplied with ammunition, fuel and food?
Ukraine’s prospects are made more grim by the realization that Russia, during the last six months, has built layered defense systems along likely avenues of attack, stepped up its use of fixed wing aerial attacks on Ukrainian mobilization positions and kept massive trained reserves off the front lines. Russia is not behaving like an overly confident number 1 seed in the NCAA Basketball tournament. The Russian General Staff realize they are in an existential fight with NATO and are not engaging in premature victory celebrations. Russia is prepared for the long haul. However, Ukraine is not.
The leaders in Kiev are behaving like depraved junkies, totally dependent on the willingness of the West to keep sending money and weapons. But there is a problem. The United States and NATO have exhausted their stocks of weapons and ammunition and do not have the industrial base in place to quickly produce replacements. Ukrainian confidence in victory is no substitute for a fully supplied and trained army. Lack of supplies and raw recruits with minimal basic training is a recipe for catastrophe.
On Telegram today I saw that university admissions in Ukranazistan- especially in the far west, around Lvov and Uzhgorod – are soaring. Because of course the idea is to get “student deferments” from military conscription. This probably will not work when the regime begins scraping the bottom of the barrel for cannon fodder.
The average age of new students also increased mysteriously.
It’s EuroMaodan all over again
Back then the “bloody regime” “brutalized” innocent students of 30-40 years age and rather specific training…
The bribes you have to pay to get this or a medical deferment are also soaring.
appologies… I just put this here so it will be seen
Us harvesting organs of children in Ukraine
Earl Grey
U.S. Harvesting CHILDRENS Organs In Ukraine. Why Western FASCIST Mercenaries Fight For Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QwYWD64a3c
(Your) mind is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of creative alternatives.
Hedley!
It is interesting that this is the first war that is not televised in the history of portable film cameras. There are no independents to confirm what each side is claiming, but there are likely thousands of cameras.
The greatest editing headache in history awaits the crews working for the Russians and the nazi’s. There will be dozens or hundreds of documentaries and the sheer scale of bullshit that will ring from the various tales should be monumental. (any more enhanced crapola and I am going to puke)
We know why the 27 eyeball nations won’t show the footage they already have from either side. It will take so much editing to make their story line that Wag the Dog will be quaint.
Removing dead Russian musicians from the play list. What big teeth we have.
Russia still can’t believe their opponents are all just jerkin’ their gherkins and can’t think of an idea with 86 of them in the room at the same time working on it as if their life depended on it.
i am sorry , but the posts above seems like a generated-text from some kind of Chat GPT AI. Is this the new spam bot post ?
Exactly!
Putting the CrAIc back in AI – So, what do you call a Kerryman with artificial intelligence?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rh3h2iYVr14&ab_channel=Reggie%2CBlackrockRoad
ChatGPY and TruthGPT are history!
PS: Irish craic is pub fun!
I see his point, but he can’t seem to get to it.
Not a Chat GPT essay.
Every word handwritten.
Washington – One Great Game Too Many . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-war-ix-one-great-game
Oh yes there are….Watch Patrick Lancaster’s reports on Youtube. He is embedded with Russian forces. He shows you what is actually happening.
And “War Gonzo” on Telegram. If you want to just see the maps and be spared the blood and gore videos this one is out of Belarus:
https://rumble.com/c/c-1613003
The Ukrainian Army is now being decimated for the 3rd time.
Yesterday, Russia was striking the Ukrainians with fighter aircraft carrying 500 kg glide bombs.
The Russian use of fighter aircraft’s confirms that Ukraine is now unable to fend off Russian air strikes. From now on, no trenches, tunnels or bunkers will be able to protect the Ukrainian soldiers.
Ukraine has not only exhausted its air defense, but lost its tank force, depleted its artillery and missiles, depleted its ammunition and its electric grid and train network is destroyed.
The weapons supplied to Ukraine from NATO Nations so far, were actually old Warsaw Pact and NATO weapons destined for disposal. NATO Nations has now exhausted its former Warsaw Pact arsenal and ammunition, and do not have sufficient industrial base to produce sufficient weapons in time for a war.
Moreover, the US and NATO are reluctant to supply Ukraine with classic NATO weaponry like F-16s, Missiles, Tanks, and Air Defense, knowing full well that it will instantly turn the Ukraine war into WWIII.
The NAZI regime in Kiev has sent wave after wave of Ukrainian men to their deaths in Donbass
Zelensky have served the Globalists Elite, by sacrificing the male population of Ukraine by deceiving them into war against Russia, and has destroyed Ukraine in the process.
Since 2014 Ukraine has lost ½ a million Soldiers in battels, and Zelensky´s goons are now roaming the streets of Ukraine to force (at gunpoint) any male they can find to their certain death on the front.
If Zelensky bows to US pressure and launch a counter offensive, it will be the final slaughter of the remaining Ukrainian Army.
The only way for a Ukraine to have success is if NATO intervenes directly in the war.
The Russian General Staff knows that NATO is on standby, and have mobilized and trained 1.5million Russian soldiers + mobilized its ally the Belarusian Army in order to be able to fight NATO, should it decides to intervene directly in the conflict. Russia is well prepared for World War, NATO is NOT.
How can the worlds most advanced intelligence community get it so wrong?
The US and NATO politicians provoked this war on behalf of the Globalist Elite.
The US has been living on borrowed money for decades and this ponzi scheme has now started to unravel. The USD is now being dropped in international trade and this will create hyperinflation in America.
The EU is now paying a heavy price for the sanctions put on Russia and China.
Most of the world did not side with the western sanctions, but have prepared for the US and EU to plunge into economic chaos, by amassing large gold reserves since the financial crises of 2008.
Now Europe is in a rescission on expensive energy and US Gas. Germany has actually committed suicide.
Russia has tried everything it could over the past 8 years to prevent this war, but Globalist politicians have persistently driven Russia into alliance with China and the west into an economic RESET.
And now the West is facing a self-inflicted military defeat against Russia and China.
When we lose this war, Russia will put any NATO and Ukrainian warmonger they can catch, on Nuremberg style trials, for war crimes and crimes against humanity.
The population Donbas will have their living standard improved to more than it was before the war, thanks to the rebuilding program already launched by President Putin, and the natural resources captured in Donbass.
However, there will be lots of anger within the west, while we descend into poverty, unemployment, corruption, criminality, civil unrest and assassinations.
Biden has just announced his bid to the 2024 Presidential election, with the slogan: To finish the Job.
What makes you think NATO getting involved will be any more successful than Ukrainian soldiers, this will just substitute Nato body bags for Ukrainian body bags. I am all for the Americans sending in their troops after all they started this and should put their troops where their mouth is, Biden, Nuland, Blinken should send their prodigy to the front line too if they have any. Top Russia leaders have their children fighting on the front lines even Peskov Putins spokesperson’s son is fighting in Wagner and 3 of Kadyrov’s sons are in the Chechen forces, one of them I believe is a child that wanted to go and fight not forced like Ukrainian children
Progeny?
Not just Donbass will experience much improved future- so to will all of Ukraine- because it will be under Russian control and part of the BRICS alliance- which has a bright future.
Between Russia and China- they will pour money into Ukraine because Ukraine really has so much going for it with natural resources and incredible farmland.
While America & Europe collapse and crumble- Ukraine will experience a rebuilding and modernization boom.
Sorry but Russia has no use for the former Ukraine since they already now control farmland, mining and industry that amounted to 80% of the former countries GDP. Furthermore, after so much murders and slaughtering of your people by the hands of the uke nazi formations, no one is queuing up to hold hands and sing Kumba Yah around a camp fire. Theres visceral hate that 5 generations and all the hope in the world wont erase. The former Ukraine is now a rump state that will be completely cut off from the Black sea and probably carved up amongst Pooland and a few other neighbours. Thats the reality.
Well put
You talk prettier than a $20 whore
I’m a lifelong chess fan. In top flight chess, especially in world championship games, both sides have their supporters, and everyone is analyzing. Often “analysis” is based on wishes, and one constantly sees victory at hand for one’s player. Or, we see only stalemate, oblivious to the real possibilities. The grandmaster analysts who are watching (without computer aid) often know who’s winning, yet still underestimate the resistance remaining in even a doomed position when defended by a fighter. What looks finished at move 30 then extends to move 70. Russians are steeped in the tradition of relentless struggle, of stifling all counter play, making the game appear static to the superficial eye. Thanks to expert commentary such as yours, Larry, we distant witnesses to this war have long believed that the strategic situation is clear and Russia winning. Yet events are teaching us all how much resistance is possible everywhere. Thanks for your efforts.
Insightful chess commentary. Thanks.
And rather fitting.
Wars of old were more like poker games, base din “fog of war” and bluffing.
This war has total survailance by sattelites, drones, humans with smartphones, and everything.
So it is “full information game” to use the theoretic term.
And Russian army accepts it. In the spring it sent strong reinforcement to Kherson, threatened by Kiev, weakening the northern flank, which was probably Kiev’s aim.
However, as the reinforcement were midway racing to Kherson they suddenly made a turn and attacked Ukrainians where they did lot expect.
Rather chess-ish move, hiding subtle intentions beyond obviois goals, gladly doing “forced moves” but with twisted goals.
Russia plays Chess, the US plays Poker.
when you pray for rain, you got to be prepared to deal with the mud too.
after Russia has destroyed the Ukrainian military, it will have to deal with the relatives and loved ones of all the dead Ukrainian soldiers. Russia needs to make a convincing case that their deaths are on Zelensky and the west.
The case: They didn’t die to ward off an invader. The Istanbul peace deal had been accepted and it consisted in a full Russian retreat in exchange for neutrality and autonomy for Donbass. NATO overrode Kiev and said no deal. They died because NATO wouldn’t accept neutrality and autonomy for Donbass.
“ Russia needs to make a convincing case that their deaths are on Zelensky and the west.”
I think they have already. The SMO started with kid gloves, and the Russians have been extremely mindful of civilian casualties. Let us also not forget Russia has tried everything over the past 8 years to prevent this war.
No, without a doubt what will amount to casualty figures of over 500,000 is on the Ukro-Nazis and their Nazi neocon masters in the US, Canada, and the UK.
Poles needs to pay close attention and wise up before they get sent in to “weaken Russia” when there are no more Ukrainians left to fight.
Russia will need generations to dissipate the hate emanating from the (West of Dneiper) Ukies. Tens of millions of them will have friends and relatives killed and injured.
And the Great Satan will do it’s best to ensure the flames of hatred are never extinguished.
That hate wasl always there, for 300 years, weaker or sharper, acute or dormant, but always there.
The PilBan syndrome.
True, but festering historical prejuduces can tolerably, satisfactorily, manageably, stay dormant while life goes on peacefully (eg, Europe 1945 – 2022).
This is nonsense. Long term enmity is not carved in stone. Consider how bitter enemies, such as France and Germany, the US and Japan, made up and became friendly after WW-II. It can happen with Russia and Ukraine, if an environment of friendship is created and nurtured. But as the saying goes, haters will hate.
“the US and Japan, made up and became friendly after WW-II.”
LOL they are not friends, they did not “make up”; Japan is an occupied vassal state. It is in a captive, abusive relationship.
Or, for that matter, Chechens and Russians
Yes and no. As a hypothetical graph, Ukraine slowly accelerated hatred for Russia 1945 to 1991. Then notched up 1991 to 2014. Then notched up 2014 to 2022. Then massively ramped up 2022 and 2023. Demographically, working backwards within the Ukrainian population, it will clearly take 2 – 4 generations to undo the nationalistic hatred to even pre-2014 levels. School curriculums would now have to be re-re-written!
Clearly, now, the West will foment and solidify more Russophobia whilst Russia tries to ameliorate it. Imo, it all depends on the President AFTER Zelensky … plus the decimation of Banderite Nationalists. Big task.
“Russia needs to make a convincing case that their deaths are on Zelensky and the west.”
Actually, they don’t have to. This is not a case in a common law court, sandbox squabble or a fight between street gangs; it’s a war, and from the perspective of the russians – an existential one. So, after the russians win, they won’t console any griefing relatives of the dead soldiers, they’ll put any decision maker on the Ukies (and NATO’s) side they get their hands on, on a trial, Nuremberg style.
But to humor you – the russians won’t have to “deal with the relatives and loved ones of all the dead Ukrainian soldiers” simply because it’s not the russians, who “volunteered” people on the ukrainians street at gun point and send them to the meat grinder with next to no training whatsoever.
I’ve heard that a lot, and IMHO the argument looks stronger than it is.
There will indeed be lots of anger from the fully Ukrainized portion of the population, but that number is much smaller than it was a year ago, and they’re concentrated in western UA which has a very uncertain future. They may not even be part of whatever Ukraine emerges from the conflict. Even a year ago it wasn’t more than 1/4 – 1/3 of the total, and many have left UA for good.
The majority of the population ex-Donbas were only superficially Ukrainized. They knew what slogans to spout and when to spout them, but were otherwise ambivalent. My read of them is that they’ll learn the new slogans quickly enough. A modicum of prosperity and good governance, along with a lot less corruption and criminality does wonders for changing peoples ideologies.
Then there’s the history of the place…. regime change has made regular stops in that land over the centuries.
I have the feeling that those areas that are predominantly Ukraine speaking and dyed in the wool Rooskie haters will be partitioned into whatever rump is designated by the obvious victor. Perhaps incorporated into Poland or elsewhere.
Although I am not fully informed about the festering disaccord by those countries relative to the previous wars settlements, I have heard that there exist a definate desire for just that to happen.
I am also not expert in geopolitics but my intuition would tell me that for Russia it could be a great advantage to agree to let the claimers have those western pieces that they may covet. Why not?! Rx can give THEM the problem of riding herd over a big portion of the ones that seem to have been the driving factor in bringing this debacle about.
When I hear a Rx official or military man state that this whole operation can carry on for years I visualize the major military operation winding down in not so much time but the real dynamics to be worked out being the police, reconstruction, and civic mega projects that must be organized and implemented.
There is your 10 years, no question, even at a minimum.
I would take everything east of the Dinieper along with that ship building area along the river, (forget the name) … as well as Odessa and the Black sea coast. And cut loose the rest for the vultures clicking their chops for a piece of the pie.
Then let them shut the fuck up and deal with the miscreants themselves.
“Russia needs to make a convincing case that their deaths are on Zelensky and the west.”
They did it with Chechens. They could do it with eastern and central Ukrainians. Galicians are way beyond any help, and will be left to rot in their own filth. Poland being so eager to annex them is as dumb as it gets.
Russia should buy the surviving Ukrainians tickets to visit the Black Scar memorial in Washington DC where 58,000 young men were sacrificed in Viet Nam to gain absolutely nothing.
Gee, soldiers die during a war? Never considered that before.
When WW1 ended I believe the history books concluded that the relatives and loved ones laid the blame for that slaughter at the feet of their own leadership for, you know how it is, not showing leadership.
Why do you think it will be different this time?
Zelensky had his chance in the first few weeks of this conflict, when the Russians offered terms that he said were acceptable only to have his mind changed by a hurried visit from Bonkers Boris Johnson.
Go figure, heh?
Zelenksy paid more attention to what the lapdog of a foreign country was demanding, rather than considering all those “relatives and loved ones” of the Ukrainian soldiers who were going to die in vast numbers so that he could continue to skim off the top.
If you are looking for whom they are going to blame for their bereavement then I suggest they will look in Kiev, not in Moscow.
the mere fact that it was not russia, but ukraine (on boris johnson`s request) that walked out of the istanbul peace talks in early march 2022 makes a pretty convincing case for ukraine`s liability for the by now literally hundreds of thousands of deaths.
Was not Elensky the comedian elected on the platform of peace in the Donbas? Fancy, a politician breaking their election manifesto promises! Who’d have thought?
I guess the Elensky Show doesn’t look quite so funny now. Seen a few clips of pissed off locals who hold their President 100% to blame for the devastation that’s befallen their country and people. But you do have a point. The Rushings need a plan to win the peace as well.
“Russia needs to make a convincing case that their deaths are on Zelensky and the West.”
This is the precise reason the Russians withdrew to the Donbass. Time after time, in telegram videos, you hear the AFU recruits saying, “why are we fighting here?” That is a really strange thing to say when fighting for your country. You only say that when you don’t consider Donbass part of Ukraine proper. They don’t consider it a part of their country. By limiting the fighting to the Donbass, the Russians have given the war the psychological appearance of a “Foreign War” / intervention. The US deaths in Vietnam are not blamed by relatives on the Vietnamese or the communists but on the US government who sent them there.
Now you know the reason for the “inexplicable” Russian withdrawals from Kiev, Kharkov area and Kherson… they want most of the Ukrainian casualties to occur in the Donbass.
Very insightful comment, Rokossovsky.
Excellent point!
To anyone with a brain it will be obvious.
No question that the die hard believers, like the morons in the west, will dig in and finger anyone but their selves.
Just look around, human race getting any better at looking in the mirror?
“Russia needs to make a convincing case that their deaths are on Zelensky and the west.”
This I am convinced is not only possible but likely. They won’t have to argue it, all they have to do is what they planned to do from the start. De-nazify, cleanup the mess the west made there, demilitarize the country and purge the western control.
Ukraine is the poorest country in Europe. Why is this? Its resource rich with a strong work ethic in the population. By all rights they should be one of the wealthiest countries in the region. They are not because the west has been exploiting them for years. Strip mining assets, taking a skim off the top of all business activity.
I believe when this is all over Russia will help rebuild the country, give good trade deals and within a decade Ukraine will be a very different place where finally the Ukrainian people get a piece of their own action.
That is the point that will cause local historians to look back and decide that the war was ugly, tough and bloody but in the end it let them purge the western parasites and they are stronger and more prosperous because of it.
This lesson will not be lost on other countries.
He can make the case to them directly, at least in Russian if not Ukrainian. He can act in term of deeds and not just words if it gets to that point. Zelensky will have likely fled to one of his overseas estates with bags of US Dollars by then. Biden will still be shitting himself and stumbling through teleprompter scripts designed to shift the blame to others. If there is a Ukraine when this is over, they would be wise to accept the facts of defeat and work with the Russians, who live next door. No one will remember that the Americans ever had global influence is a year or two.
The “depraved junkies” you speak of, had endless faith in their Godfather (i.e. the US) as a reliable provider who cares for them and will arrange for everything.
Acting upon that blind faith, they have sent wave after wave of the young men of Ukraine to their certain deaths.
Doing so they have served the interests of the US and sacrificed their homeland. Deceiving themselves and their countrymen and destroying their country in the process.
How can they face the dire reality as it begins to flare in their eyes ? I wonder what has become of Arestowich.
@lahire “I wonder what has become of Arestowich.”
Ukrainian politician Arestovich: “Post-war reconstruction in Ukraine is much more important than the conflict” […] also noteworthy that the politician conducts all his interviews, speeches and even the telegram channel in Russian.
https://en.topwar.ru/215439-arestovich-poslevoennaja-rekonstrukcija-na-ukraine-gorazdo-vazhnee-chem-rezultat-okonchanija-konflikta.html
Arestovych went off the reservation and has been silenced, one way or another.
Re: The Ukrainian public. Once it stops wallowing in self-pity and it finally begins to sink in that they were sacrificed for NATO and UA oligarchic interests and all NATO wanted (and still wants) was to evict Russia from Crimea and claim Sevastopol (and all the Black Sea) for itself and all Russia wanted, in the simple name of stability, was a neutral Ukraine that respected the rights (and votes) of all its citizens equally, while not messing with the 30 yr old issue of Crimean status as an autonomous republic within Ukraine, then I expect the same bitter decade of introspection that the US went through in 1975-85.
I also wouldn’t be at all surprised if Canada enters a mega-phase of post war banderite immigration. Good luck to the canucks, they’ll need it.
I still can’t believe the venality of self-deception the west is engaged in. Future historians will mark this era with great interest. Hopefully, it won’t be a non-Fukuyama title called ‘The End of History’, if you catch my radioactive wind drift.
Alexander Mercouris said that this Zap offensive to Crimea was supposed to be a follow up attack after Kharkiv and Kerson last fall. The fact that it hasn’t happened seems to indicate they lost too many men and equipment to be able to launch the main offensive as you have said here.
The game changer I suspect has been Russia’s erosion of Ukraine’s AD, allowing for air launched glide bombs that seem to be and will soon be devastating UA’s remaining men and materiel.
IMO, even third rate analysts should and would have seen this coming as the end to a well-manicured western charade.
Ukraine’s chances of achieving any significant breakthrough, especially capturing any territory that is fortified by prepared Russian defence lines are slim to none. As Ukraine comes under more and more pressure to preform it’s “great Melitopol/Bakhmut counteroffensive” Russians are ramping up the pace of operations, and the AFU are forced to plug the holes with their built-up forces. I believe Ukraine will launch the offensive anyway, because they have to show some progress to the West, and Russia is already blunting the already dwindling strength of that attack.
Hi Larry,
Not sure who this guy is but he’s calling you out.
https://thedreizinreport.com/2023/04/25/dreizin-pities-the-fool/
He’s a nobody trying to be a somebody. A fool. I tried to help him when he started blogging. No good deed goes unpunished.
He is an incompetent writer and a shabby wannabee when it comes to analysis. He has made himself irrelevant.
His blog is a shambles and very hard to read. I gave up after 30 seconds.
I don’t recall ever reading a blog Comments Policy as long or detailed as his. There’s no reason he shouldn’t have a few house rules, but this is a catalog of hypothetical abuses that smacks of paranoia.
Agree. He spends 30 percent of his time talking about how great he is, 30 shitting on people who tried to help him, and 40 asking for money. A right psycho grifter. Everyone gets tired of him soon.
Is this same guy? A GS-13 “Management and Program Analyst” federal worker in Northern Virginia?
Yes. That’s him.
A prime example of how dumbed down US.GOV has become.
Larry
I tried to help that dude out to at the beginning, as did the duran. All he talked about was how much money he was making on his super wise investments while at the same time begging viewers for money to pay his babysitting when he was making his videos. Charlatan
I stopped reading him long ago over his annoying habit of collecting brownie points by pointing out and exploiting the softer underbellies of those he criticizes, sometimes reasonably accurately, sometimes not. There are pluses and minuses to every blogger’s style. You extract what you think relevant and leave the character criticism out of it, far as I’m concerned. No need for it.
His comments on Larry don’t seem to be too bad. other than the ‘pro-Russian’ part. Never considered Larry as pro-Russian, just anti-establishment and its deadly foibles, where it’s called for. As for Mercouris, sure – he could compact an hour into half that, being a bit less fastidious in his wording and he does speculate a lot. So what? I still listen to Lavelle inspite of his annoying habit of grandstanding and cutting his guests off in mid-thought. Accusing any of his objects of ‘ire’ du jour of trying to peddle ‘the truth’ is just a shallow attempt at saying ‘here, behold the truth – in me.’ I still listen to Lavelle in spite of his annoying habit of grandstanding and cutting his guests off in mid-thought, because of the caliber of fresh guests he manages to host. Marin Jay springs to mind especially lately.
Well, so what to that too? Everyone thinks they have insights into what’s true and what’s not. You don’t denigrate others to bolster your own status. That’s what the west has been doing for years and it stinks.
Pardon my own brief indulgence in criticisms here. Nobody’s perfect.
Bulgarians have a saying, which I believe applies to this Dreizin character: не спори с идиот – околните няма да видят разликата, а и да я видят – няма да е в твоя полза.
Roughly translated it means: don’t argue with an idiot – the people around you won’t see the difference between you and him, and if they see it – it won’t be in your favour.
In USSR they had saying: He likes to think big thoughts.
I too initially paid attention to him.I am no genius but in short order I found him to be not more than a self promoter,full stop.Especially his “shock jock” approach.
I see his point, but he can’t seem to get to it.
It’s interesting we all started out at the same or rather me as a blog reader since RU entered Syria, bloggers have come and gone, only a few have stayed the course and of course new ones have come, the Simplicus guy is 10/10, the 2 Alex’s been on my list since the beginning, Larry here for the last year, Mark in Petersburg too, Lancaster and the other fellow who have had a spat, that I still don’t understand. Selvoda has lost my favor. Brian and Dima top notch still. I miss from Syria R&U Videos with their haunting music with gopros on tanks, but all of them defer to Mercouris who has his own past I know but don’t we all. But none of us can stay with any degree of accuracy of what will happen to west of Ukraine, that remains in the tea leaves.
R&U Videos are still posting, but more on Telegram than on Youtube (there are two R&U channels on Youtube, one with some recent stuff). By Mark in Petersburg, do you mean Mike aka iEarlGrey, or someone else?
I pity his poor wife because I can imagine what it’s like to sit across the supper table from the guy. Ditto his kids. (I have to ask myself what convinced her to marry him. He couldn’t have developed that narcissistic personality overnight. How could she miss those I-riddled warning signs? And surely Jacob managed to backstab a friend or two while they were dating; it seems to be much practiced talent of his, one he’s honed to razor sharpness for several decades . Why did she overlook that ugly aspect of his makeup? (Anyone who doubts Larry’s take on him needs to read what Dreizin recently posted concerning religion and recall the adage about fools rushing in where angels fear to tread. As I read it, the thought “Thomas Aquinas and John Henry Newman move over!” kept pelting my brain. Chutzpah, your surname is Dreizin!)
I could see your influence early on… then Dreizen spectacularly imploded. IMHO
It is obvious Dreizen never studied the Great Patriotic War, where vast stretches of territory went uncovered by both sides. For example to the south of Stalingrad, there was only one German division, the 16th Motorized, based in Elista that covered a front 300 miles wide. The Russians cut through that easily to reach Kalach. Likewise, much of the German advances into the Caucuses, even to Mount Elbrus, went mostly unopposed by Soviet troops. Then you have the lone German division, the 11th Panzer, on the Chir River, commanded by Herman Balck who beat back the entire Soviet 5th Tank Army. And it goes on and on. Fighting in Russia is more like a naval battle: ships destroyed, not miles sailed determines the victor.
Your absolutely right Larry about this wannabe idiot & his Drezin Report? He craps on the very people who supported him when he started blogging such as yourself & especially Alex Mercouris & Alex Christoforu who initially had him guest star on their Duran Show & their individual Shows but not anymore due to his backstabbing & duplicity? The two Alex’s are only Layman & don’t confess to be Military or Geopolitical experts but you are a expert Larry due to your Intelligence background! This Drezin Guy is envious & jealous at your & others success while his blog is languishing, what’s laughable is that he thinks he’s a Military expert, based on what, I don’t know, did he ever serve in the Military, I doubt it, he’s delusional & a utter joke!
A bitter little man desperate for attention.
Dreizin is a grifter / scammer who have zero knowledge on geopolitics and trying to get ‘fame’ by attacking other more famous ppl like Duran , Matraynov , Saker and LJ.
Check Dreizin’s articles and you will see endless rambling so childish that it boggles the mind there’s people still visit and read that site.
Check the comment section and see how people who tried to post objective comments got attacked and banned by this ADHD Dreizin.
The only reason to visit Dreizin Report is to shake our head at the incredible nonsense this kid spout endlessly and the continous ‘GIVE ME MONEY’ posts
Dude honed his writing and editing skills at Arkham Asylum, you need to be a superhero to decipher it.
Your name is Dreizin and Grant your handle here? You do seem to be a follower of his approach to English composition, chaotic and self-congratulatory. If you are that schoolyard bully, can we ask why you have such a low category federal job?
Buongiorno
there is something wrong with the msm narrative, the western shortage of weapons, to this day the weapons supplied to the ukronazis are old iron destined for disposal,
so either NATO is really a bunch of idiots or is deliberately hiding its firepower to hit china,
Or NATO is a paper tiger
NATO is not a paper tiger. It remains a superpower militarily as long as the USA is there and it is the foremost naval power in the world on and under the sea.
Russia remains the number one land power.
China is obviously up there but because we have not seen them in combat it’s hard to know their full capacity. Possibly the West will be in for a very big surprise if they take on China. China also has the opportunity to learn and adapt while watching the SMO real time. It is likely more focused on chips, sea dominance, drones and sheer stockpiling. So China is in a great position to plan and build before the war comes to it, and it will come.
That said NATO particularly the US is also in a great position to learn and prepare as they are not giving anything too valuable to Ukraine and the Pentagon will be learning regardless of how stupid people think they are.
All three of these powers are moving to full war economies and footing. Russia has to do this fastest under the greatest pressure. But it was best placed to handle that of all 3 other than chip production and quality capacity.
So behind the scenes alot will be happening. There will be huge costs, social, political, freedom, quality of life, to moving to war economies but unfortunately it has to be done. In all this Russia and China are not underestimating NATO and no one else should either. Best to overprepare than be caught off guard.
Well said Ash. My only slight disagreement is China. They are building a huge stack of armaments. But do they have killers? I realize an old infantryman’s take may be dated in this age of technology. But it’s always the man, and never the rifle that kills you.
And they have had no wars to build killers. They got their ass handed to them by the wily Vietnamese. And the “Iron Rice Bowl” procurement and staffing does not bode well.
They will suffer huge casualties at the beginning as they find out who their “Real” Generals and soldiers are. But of course, that stack of missiles is going to cost us. And that conflicts body count is going to be enormous no matter who “wins”.
That this lunacy is even being contemplated astounds me.
The Chinese, the Japanese, the Koreans……don’t underestimate them in combat. They all have a discipline western powers only dream of.
US military? Failed in Korea. Failed in Vietnam. Big wins in Grenada and Panama, so got me there. Technical win in Desert Storm against demoralized and badly led Iraqis. Failed in Iraq ultimately, humiliating failure in Afghanistan after 20 years. So far the mini me Ukrainian military has been pummeled by the Russians.
We need to seriously reevaluate our view of US military. The record is terrible for the last 80 years.
The US military today is a shell, mostly due to political correctness. The losses were political. In Korea the US military kicked the Norks out of South Korea and slaughtered a whole lot of Chinese in the process. In Vietnam the US military did well, leaving in 1972. Vietnam fell in 1975. Vietnam was a political loss, not invading North Vietnam and just waiting for them to send more people south, while the CIA and others ran the heroin. The US military was pretty effective in both wars.
Today we have problems. A US destroyer ramming a slow moving bulk carrier because the CIC officer and duty officer were in a cat fight and wouldn’t talk to each other (they found out they were banging the same dude). Massive problems with procurement with generals getting plumb board seats after retirement for “helping out”. The F-35 in the South China Sea. No one with any level of IQ wanting to enlist. Drag freaks parading as officers. I think the Ukraine Army would have defeated the US in a war.
What the US military lacks in wartime successes it makes up for in hubris. The funniest part is how the most credulous defenders of the awesome power of the US military – and thus NATO – are always guys in places like Germany, Sweden and the Baltics. “Just wait ‘til NATO shows up!” I’m like – dude, you believe those Hollywood movies? We can’t keep our fucking trains on the tracks. Not one in a hundred Americans could pick out Lithuania on a map, and the stupid Lithuanians expect us to be their defense as they start trouble with their neighbor – the biggest, most heavily-armed (with nukes) country on the planet. Here’s how it’s working out for the Ukraine: (Animal House)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MYQCb3qrBpo
The US (the rest of NATO is irrelevant) is a sea power, and I would argue that in the 21st Century that sea power has lost most of its relevance. Surface ships are basically sitting ducks against modern anti-ship missiles. In a shooting war with Russia for sure and China probably, all of our fancy aircraft carriers would be on the bottom of the sea in the first day.
And what would the US do in a war with Russia or China? They wouldn’t invade those countries. We don’t have the soldiers, and it will take years to replace all of the weapons and ammunition we’ve sent to Ukraine. We could shut down the sea lanes, but China and Russia have spent years building the infrastructure and agreements to conduct their trade by land.
Precisely.
The US can shut down seaborne trade with its subs. But so can Russia and China. So, no international trade at all.
It will be tough for everyone but diabolical for Europe, deprived of energy, food and manufactured goods. All they’ll have left is politics and virtue-signalling.
Hypersonic weapons make floating ships obsolete.
Not fully.
Do you know how many hypersonics are needed to take out a multiple ship carrier fleet? Without them firing nukes off? They may take them down that way but not without multiple hits and not without counter launches from the carrier group.
Seems like the US is destined – itching, really – to find out. Sad.
Re Ash below. There is only one carrier in a carrier fleet. The rest are there to protect and support it. Once the carrier is taken out by some hypersonics the rest have little offensive relevance against Russia or China.
Any step up to nuclear war does not depend on the carriers, or their escorts, which are poor platforms for that. It will be launched from the US’ nuclear sub fleet, which is relatively robust, as is the Russians’.
If Xiden decides to go nuclear over the sinking of US carriers, then he is condemning the US to nuclear destruction, which will hit the US even harder than Russia or China because of the US total failure to produce an interception system, total failure to establish any civil defense infrastructure, and its greater overall dependence on an economy total divorced from subsistence level.
It won’t be pretty for anyone, but worst for the US.
RE chip production, good thing they had plenty of washing machines!
The third alternative: the West assumed that once they had prodded Russia into this war then they would oh-so-swiftly bring the Kremlin to its knees via those sanctions from hell.
Huzzah! We are so very clever!
Didn’t happen. Doesn’t look like happening
Q: Hey, guys, what was Plan B?
A: There wasn’t one.
There was some vague concept that NATO was chock-a-block full of weapons and had the industrial capacity to build more. More of a fuzzy ill-defined feel-good than a concrete fall-back plan.
Only that didn’t turn out to be true either.
The warehouses were not as well-stocked as had been assumed, and the industrial capacity was now in…. China.
Q: Do we have a Plan C then?
A: No. Nothin’
Movie completed. Can we go home?
That’s what happens when you are ruled by lawyers and bartenders, and incompetent ones at that.
I was amazed at how just 15-20 years back were telling that manufacturing is passe. Services is where it is at. Every country was aspiring to reach 70+% of it’s GDP in services.
Then China thought otherwise. It’s industrial manufacturing is unparalleled. Russia is unparalleled in it’s military manufacturing.
Sure US and west is still king in many things. However once the world is in a position to decouple from the West it’s all up for grabs.
Strangely the West has been giving the world baby lessons in decoupling via sanctions.
Now mother of all sanctions have near graduated the world from western dependence.
After the final lap of decoupling what will matter is demographics, resources, cheap manufacturing and logistics. The West leads in none of that. ( sure US has lots of resources but they are barely enough for it’s wasteful living standards.
As an look in history will tell you demographics, resources and technical know how has a dynamic of it’s own that military power alone can’t overcome.
Eventually military power and industrial power as well as innovation will come down without abundance of economic power. Here the West is facing a very very tough decline. With it the gap keeps widening. Ask Greece, Rome, Mughal India, old China about it.
Dear Larry,
The only way for the offensive to make any headway that can be spun as a success is if NATO forces enter the fray. Signs are worrying wrt Polish forces.
The million-man reserve (Col. MacGregor’s estimate) plus Belorussia forces and other reserves would be a reasonable occupation force for Ukraine, or Ukraine and Poland (and the Baltics).
Combined with the run on the dollar and the depletion of NATO munitions, depletion of the strategic reserve, I do not see the war lasting to 2030 – I see the world changing more in the next six months than in the last 30 years.
Russia is prepared for the long haul. However, Ukraine is not.
neither is NATO – yet it wants a war with China. Insane.
There’s an endless supply of allied or friendly countries who could send millions of troops to the theatre of operations if Russia really wanted or needed them. For now, Russia is doing just fine destroying whatever is left of Ukraine’s military and sending not too subtle warnings of what will happen to any NATO country stupid enough to officially commit its troops to the fray. The Yemeni Houthis have 1 million fighters alone, just to give an idea. They will be needed elsewhere though. I have been saying this since DAY 1: the US, GB, Israel and their European vassals have stepped into a deadly trap and now they can’t get out of the quagmire. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and a host of other countries have been preparing for over a decade for the removal of US-GB hegemony. As you stated, this will not be a protracted conflict, once the gloves are off, Russia & Co. will castigate hard!
“Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and a host of other countries have been preparing for over a decade for the removal of US-GB hegemony”
I have been waiting my entire adult life for this to happen. And for the death of the Rothschild’s Zionist settler project in Palestine.
I think I will die satisfied.
I don’t think countries will send any over troops.
You understimate the fear or US sanctions and being disconnected from swift. No other country could really take that right now other than Iran.
South considered sending Russia troops but did not.
No one right now is in a position to handle the sanctions Russia is facing.
Perhaps in future. But not now.
So Russia other than perhaps covert help is on its own. People forget even China has implemented some sanctions against Russia to protect it’s economy.
I would say South Africa, Belarus and Iran are probably the only genuine friends Russia has. The Stans are not rock solid anything.
India will never abandon Russia but it is playing balancing game.
Russias greatest need from what I know, it advanced chips.
so de-dollarization is imaginary? Funny that the business pages disagree.
Fear is a fickle thing – read the Emperor’s New Clothes fairy tale – once fear goes, it goes real fast.
And are you really arguing that nations have friendships – not interests?
De dollarisation levels right now are not significant.
They may well be in the future stopping the US exporting inflation but at the moment impacts are not high. In fact lots of countries are trying to get more dollars.
Living in the world of numbers not political satire,
The numbers: the dollar share of global reserves was 73 percent in 2001, 55 percent in 2021, and 47 percent in 2022. The key takeaway is that last year, the dollar share slid 10 times faster than the average in the past two decades.
Could hit 30% in time for the election. I know your opinion, ASH, your facts?
I see an alarming trend and an argument for a position outside dollars.
Russia has a lot more friends than the US has, face up to it!!!! The US is hated everywhere, even the Israelis hate them.
That was always the case.
It doesn’t change the price of milk.
Trade between countries is now being settled in their owm currencies. No one sided with the US besides their vassals. No one is fearing the US anymore. Taliban just kicked them out of their country. Coup d’etat in Venezuela failed. Western sponsored uprisings in Kazakhstan and Georgia didn’t materialize. The US can’t even cope with their own broken infrastructure. Now comes the purge in media, see FOX. US is loosing on all fronts. No one takes them really seriously. It’s happening already. US is isolating itself from the rest of the world. Europe just destroyed its future. The consequences for the west are disastrous.
Trump started trade wars and lost them. This was one big stupid move on his behalf. But that is how real wars start. First with trade wars and sanctions. Nukes will not save the US. A mad dog has to be put down. Then everyone else will feel safe again.
The move away from the US dollar will be slow. There are simply too many things attached to dollar use to have it collapse in a couple years. There will be a massive slow change. The early stages are visible in cannibalization within the dollar space. Right now it is the wringing out of unregulated eurodollars. It will appear first in the furthest reaches of the empire farthest from Rome.
Poland would stand no chance against Russia. They’ve already given away many of their tanks to Ukraine. And by the time Poland entered the fray they would face battle-hardened Russian troops. I don’t think their play-acting NATO training exercises would be a match for real-world battle experience.
Really tragic. I felt very sorry for the man.
Thanks Larry for an excellent piece. The West is engaged in a Ukrainian mass suicide/ self-slaughter project.
For any one interested, the text of Lavrov’s speech at the UNSC meeting 2 days ago.
https://mid.ru/en/press_service/video/view/1865243/
Maybe all these arms and ammunition that were destined for the Ukraine have been diverted to forward staging areas and depots inside Poland, waiting for the day when Polish and NATO (read United States) forces invade the Ukraine.
“But there is a problem. The United States and NATO have exhausted their stocks of weapons and ammunition and do not have the industrial base in place to quickly produce replacements.”
If this statement were true, then the real problem would be that Russia could just waltz into a completely disarmed and defenseless Europe and take it over.
Then it becomes a question of can you say this in Russian: “Do you feel lucky punk?”
Fact is, we don’t know what is going on “over there.” Maybe we will know something someday, but only when it is all over.
We know what’s going on over *here.* We’ve pulled weapons out of our own military training to send over there. We’ve pulled weapons out of museums to send over there. We’ve pulled Patriot systems out of the ME to send over there. We rely on other countries — in some cases our “enemies” & in some cases our “friends” whose energy supply & supply chains we broke with nordstream & before that our “leaked” bioweapon — for critical raw materials & parts to assemble weapon & arms replacements. And the Idiot in Chief foisted upon us by our Deep State has even managed to blow through our strategic oil reserve.
None of this is rocket science I know zip about the military & war, yet I predicted by March 22 that we would fail due to our outsourced manufacturing alone.
The United States would “fail due to our outsourced manufacturing alone.”
In response to all the out-sourcing and off-shoring going on just in the late 1970s, my grandfather once said: “A country that makes nothing is nothing.”
And here we are. It’s 2023.
“Russia could just waltz into a completely disarmed and defenseless Europe and take it over.” Russia dumped the ingrate parasitic kleptocracies of eastern Europe onto the German/EU tab, why would they want them back?
“Russia dumped the ingrate parasitic kleptocracies of eastern Europe onto the German/EU tab, why would they want them back?”
“Keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer?”
The former Soviet Era Block countries — Armenia, Azerbaijan, Byelorussia, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldavia, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan — hated the Soviet Union while they were in it, and hated Russia the most while they were in the block. Once freed, they hated the former Soviet Era Russia even worse.
Look what the Ukraine turned into after Nikita Khrushchev “set them free.”
And remember: Russia was once a Soviet Era Block country.
If you can’t win for trying, then all you have is another reason to nuke the whole mess and start over.
Just because you are (supposedly) able to do something doesn’t mean that you are/must be interested in doing that.
The Russian Army taking its quarters on the Champs-Elysees (Paris) in 1815 was because Russia was part of a European alliance assembled to get rid of Napoleon Bonaparte.
The Red Army occupied Eastern Europe in 1945 to push back the Nazi German occupying forces and compel the Third Reich to capitulate.
There is no purpose for Russia to take over any part of Europe right now or in a foreseeable future.
Russia doesn’t want to march into Europe. Nato startet a war against Russia on behalf of their master the US. They now face the hard reality that they are utterly incapable to do anything militarily and economically to defeat Russia. Their BS talk about confronting China is just more wishful BS coming from a wannabe army that thinks they run the world. Russia is beating the s**t out of them. They still suffer losses but that is the price they are willing to pay to put Nato and the US where they belong. Russia will not forget the blood they spilled. The west is already paying for the mess they created. The world did not side with the corrupt west. They are waiting like everyone else for the west to plunge into chaos. Everyone knows the west is finished. They are only living on borrowed money. This ponzi scheme will come to an end soon. Central banks are amassing gold in record pace. The USD is being pushed out from international trade. So they go after Russia for many selfish reasons. That is why this conflict will end very badly for one side in particular. The west knows if they fail, they just might go nuclear as well. Because that way they may have a chance to not let Russia have achieved their full victory. Just how I see things.
There’s no doubt in serious minds that Mr. Putin, leader of a nation with fewer than 150 million people, has any pretence of overrunning the nations of Western Europe comprising more than a half billion population, even though the vast majority of those nations are severely underequipped with military matériel and most of that population is unfit for military service. In fact, just policing the migrant populations running amok in Western Europe would itself tax the Russian military.
However, to correct an of quoted statement, the US will nevertheless fight the Russians and Chinese to the last European, and nothing is more laughable than hearing this affirmed by EU leaders planning to patrol the Taiwan strait to deter China.
Après Joe, le déluge.
Mr. Putin may have “a nation with fewer than 150 million people,” but he has an ally (China) with a population of 1.44-billion people (as of 2021).
If Russia really wants to never have to worry about its borders, ever again, they will take all of Europe. China needs the breathing room. How do you say “Lebensraum” in Mandarin?
I really don’t think the United States knows just how big an enemy they have created for themselves by pissing off Russia and China.
100% agreed!
Bravo dude, no question that USA and Co. are taking a huge ass whipping up to now, and if they keep up wit the bullshit it will get exponentially worse.
Did you ever get shit on your hands?!
Terrible mess to get off!
I totally agree. Russia has no interest in taking over Western Europe. Why would they want a region with no natural resources full of shallow, useless, non-productive people? Just more mouths to feed.
The people can be gotten rid of. Just look at Detroit, Baltimore, Chicago, Buffalo, Philadelphia New York City, any American city for that matter.
The average American (38-million Americans already suffer from some kind of “food insecurity”), is something like just are just three (3) days without food from starvation.
Stop sending out Social Security checks and 61-million Americans are out on the street inside a month.
Go nuclear and 5-billion people are gone.
Good comment. Good points. A couple of things.
“Russia doesn’t want to march into Europe.”
I don’t think Russia has a choice at this point. The United States is insane and cannot be trusted. China eats dogs. China is clearly looking at the United States as a mad dog with nukes. Mad dogs with nukes must be put down.
The United States feels exactly the same way about Russia and China, and the rest of world actually — even its allies. Especially Germany.
Russia says they don’t want to march into the Ukraine, but I don’t think they have choice there either. The de-Nazification and de-militarization of Ukraine can only be complete by taking the whole country.
I think the United States has gone so rogue and so insane that they will continue this “proxy” war right into a “real” war — if we are not already there.
If pushed into a corner the United States will go nuclear. They have before.
US is creating those self fulfilling prophecies to make their point. Sadly, people believe that after something happens that confirms that statement. Basically if I know how I can provoke someone into a reaction, I can state about anything. The sheep home will believe me more than the other side. US knew Russia would react to the massive shelling of the breakaway regions. Now they push that narrative all the time that Russia “just” invaded Ukraine because they are evil.
So far their proxy war didn’t show the results they expected. There is a lot at stake for the west. Who knows what they do next. But so far they only doubled down on everything. It still doesn’t really matter from the Russian side, because the west grossly underestimated Russia’s military and economical might. But that is also dangerous. The west doesn’t seem to be looking for an off-ramp. They might go all the way.
Russia has neither the resources nor the desire to ‘march into Europe’. You’re engaging in pure sophistry, sorry to say.
And just as in the post ww2 world we will study the HATO version of events.The west has repeated the ww2 nazi mistake,trying to supply a battle front 1000 miles away.The nazi generals must have left that part out of their narrative.
People don’t understand that once RU get to the point to be able to use air power with little to low risk, this one sided mess will become even more one sided, and if they reach a point where they can fly high altitude flights over the battlefield uncontested, that will be the point when no amount of trenches, tunnels or hiding will be able to seriously slow them down.
Right now, they lob 500-1500 kg glide bombs, and even limited amount of them (20 or so per day) are making a huge difference.
Once they are able to use regular gravity bombs (i.e. flying high altitude over the battlefield), it will probably be in range of hundreds or maybe even thousands per day, and at that point, there will be no stronghold sturdy enough to survive even few days of heavy pounding like that.
This is also main point why I believe that no other country like Finland, Poland or Georgia can really hope to make any problems for RU, because unlike UKR who probably had second or third best air defense in the world at the start of the conflict, none of these countries is having even a small fraction of it, and West cannot provide it either, which means that such conflicts would be even more one sided from the start.
Russia owns that sky already. They are just shy to go big. But that is good. They are applying steady pressure on their enemies at all times, so there is always room to increase it in case the opponent underestimates their will and determination.
Russia has been using SU-57 over Ukraine. I have the feeling the west was not able to detect those sorties at all. The have not even mentioned it in any official analysis. So, they are simply hiding that fact or not aware of it.
Well they do have huge advantage in the air, but they still cannot safely fly all over UKR even on higher altitudes, since there is still some (altho much less then before) of potent mid/long range AA weaponry present inside UKR like BUK and S300.
So, for the foreseeable future, we should not expect RU airforce to fly deep inside UKR territory, but at this points lines are moving – they can safely run gliding bombs from 50-70 km behind lines, and probably face moderate threat if they get closer.
Ofcourse, for them, loosing equipment is not too big of a problem, but losing pilots is, therefore I don’t expect them to fly over UKR territory directly any time soon, but with current advancement, they will be flying over front lines in a matter of months, and that will mean that dumb bombs could be used en masse with high safety of their pilots being guaranteed.
When that happens, front lines will be moving much faster, because literally every problem they are now facing like minefields and bunkers/trenches can be dealt with much faster and safer with dumb ammunition, and also, they will be able to use glide bombs to attack deep into UKR territory, which means that any meaningful supply chain or kind of troop concentration for UKR will be close to impossible.
Low altitude flying over UKR territory will be not practical for the reminder of war, since simple portable AA weapons like stingers are deadly enough and easy to have, and it is not smart to assume that their existence will ever be diminished enough.
So all in all, if data we are currently receiving are true, UKR is going to get completely obliterated and much faster and safer as time goes by unless ofcourse they don’t produce some extremely big surprize which is also extremely unlikely.
That seems to be the actual situation for the use of their common air force. In what capacity Russia can use their latest advanced fighter jets is pretty much a secret. But they said, that there were sorties where they used them successfully. I believe that Russia is holding back for a reason, so that they can always step things up, should it be necessary.
I think things will be stepped up. The punk (the insane United States) feels lucky. Russia is holding back. They know what’s coming. But also holding back is China.
“. . . once RU get[s] to the point to be able to use air power with little to low risk . . . .”
Two options can happen, as soon as Ukrainian air defenses completely collapse. First, Russia takes over air-superiority. That’s when the west (the United States) sends its jet fighters into Ukraine. The other is that western-made fighter jets show up in the skies over Ukraine. Of course, they are being flown by western pilots, but Ukraine will say otherwise, that it is their pilots piloting the jets. Russia will capture one of these downed pilots and the United States will be forced to admit: “Yes, he’s our boy.”
Either way, Russia makes shooting down these western jets top priority, their special project.
The other option is the United States declares a “No Fly Zone” over all of the Ukraine. The foundation has already been poured for this. The American People have been desensitized. There will be a protracted period of air combat until Russia shoots down all western jets.
Let’s see how crazed and insane the United States really is.
Maybe, but could Nato/US hold up a no-fly-zone? I don’t think so. Establishing such a zone would also mean direct involvement in that conflict. Something the west very much tries to avoid.
I also think Russia’s S-400 AD complex is just to powerful for the west. Nato/US could never make a no-fly-zone work. It would also force Russia’s hand to destroy all those points of aggression inside Nato countries. No one would want to answer to that, because this would pretty much be the beginning of a hot WW3.
The west very much wants to defeat/destroy/weaken Russia. But they don’t want to get themselves into the cross-hair of Russia’s weapons. That is what I see happening. That is, why I also think, this situation, the west created, is extremely serious.
One could argue that there has been direct involvement all along. Take away the word “proxy” and you just have “war.”
Thus far, World War III has just been a series of trash can fires, all testing those lines that cannot be crossed. The Russian Cultural Center in Nicosia, Greece was just torched. Another trash can fire?
I think the United States blowing up Nord Stream One and Two were real lines that were crossed. But the responsible parties have so far refused to own up to what can only be described as an unmatched act of terrorism, and an act of war.
We will have to get to a point where something like Japan attacking Pearl Harbor and then having the unmitigated gall to demand “Prove It!”to the whole world. World War II might never have happened if only Japan could have proven who attacked Pearl Harbor.
And that’s where we stand with the destruction of $20-billion dollars of critical civilian infrastructure in 2022. Imagine, 6-months after Pearl Harbor and we still didn’t know “who done it.”
“The leaders in Kiev are behaving like depraved junkies…” Indeed, but aren’t the leaders in Washington, London and Brussels equally behaving like depraved junkies? Aren’t they truly depraved junkies? They are all certainly depraved, degenerate; as to their drug-addition, it may chemical or pecuniary or power or blackmail; the west is riding a mad horse of iniquity… into chaos.
Another profitable post from Johnson.
I still to this day have no idea how unprepared the US and Ukraine have been to launch such an operation but to be defeated in such a way just beggars belief. How can the worlds most advanced intelligence community get it so wrong.
Easy. They thought they *were* prepared sufficient. The easiest explanation is often the correct one. They put all those sanctions on Russia hoping it will suffer economically. But so far everything the west has done backfired at them in some degree.
The west is mostly a lot of BS and no substance. They painted themselves into a corner. They live indebted on borrowed money and that scheme is going to ruin their currencies and their economies. Germany was *dependent* on cheap Russian energy. That was somehow *bad*. Now they are dependent on very expensive energy from the US and that is somehow better? Germany committed suicide. Others are following the same path. Russia just needs to keep that conflict frozen. The west is destroying itself anyway. There will be a high exodus of smart hardworking people from Europe. Europe will never recover from that conflict. That is why they just might turn that into WW3. They have nothing to loose anymore.
During that conflict US/EU/nato have changed their initial stance on their involvement alot. No tanks, no fighter jets, no long range weapons, no nukes. How fare are we now?
We all know where this is heading. WW2 didn’t happen overnight. It all started with little “poking” here and there.
“But so far everything the west has done backfired at them in some degree.”
Actually the US has gained massively. Both economically, geo politically and in terms of killing Russians and depleting their weapons and understanding Russian capacity.
They also have at this moment full control of the off and on switch of this war.
Things only get messy for the US if alliances break, de dollarisation accelerates significantly, civil unrest or the on and off switch is removed from their control.
The West has inflicted serious damage on Russia, and while Russia has coped well and will counter do not forget that.
China and Russia are cautious, very cautious about direct conflict with the US, there is a reason for that.
Ash, You really need to get out more and take a look around.
Agreed mk, he should. But he only gets as far as Newdill’s mobile home in the trailer park. Not much to see there.
Sure, USA gained so much.
One thing it has learned is NOT to mess with the Russian bear. This thing can kill you!
USA will go back to the drawing board and learn how to fight continental wars with real peers. If it tries to take on Russia now, it will be defeated.
The U.S. has lost an enormous amount of the soft power it used to enforce the “Rules-based International Order”. Before 2022 there was a widespread perception that the U.S. military was the best in the world, an unstoppable force. That perception combined with the threat of sanctions kept most countries in line.
But now that Russia has successfully stood up to the bully, both economically and militarily, all that is out the window. More and more countries will move into the Russia-China protective umbrella.
I don’t see it that way. If the US or Nato were anywhere near a sure victory over Russia, they would have done it long time go. They would have looted Russian resources like they do it in Syria or Iraq. It seems they had to push for a conflict because they lost the arms race anyway. Russia has weapons the west is lagging about 10 years behind. But it was too late already. Russia did significantly degraded Ukraine’s military in about the first 8 weeks. After that Zelensky started begging for support and the west started to prep up their Proxy with money and weapons and still wasn’t able to do anything to stop the Russian offensive. All this while the west is committing economic and financial suicide. Look at the infrastructure in the US alone. Huge debt burden, train derailments, a failing banking system on the verge of a total collapse, massive drug abuse by their population, raging poverty and crime and not even able to stop mass influx of immigrants from the south. US is simply coping with almost everything and cannot get it fixed at all.
You ignore Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan. You sound like Austin claiming the Russia s have suffered significant losses without proof or quantification. The US is being isolated. Only EU, Canada, Australia, South Korea and Japan support the US. That is about 40 EU countries plus the others i mentioned. But the problem is that you made an assertion without any evidence to back it up.
@Ash
“Actually the US has gained massively. Both economically, geo politically”
I raise the bullshit flag, with well wishers like you, one doesn’t need enemies.
Fe, fi, fo fum, I smell the blood of a Ukiebot man! Has to be to post something as far from the truth as this nonsense about Western victory.
Explain how the US has lost?
Gains:-
– economic and political control over Europe as their Eurasian bridgehead
– stopped EU Russian trade and making billions selling energy to EU plus taking their business plus massive buyouts of EU companies and drain of too talent to US
– BRICS and Russia – China – India axis was always going to de dollarise and create alternative mechanisms, that is disrupted to some extent by sanctions and war, so it’s an early move to hit out at inevitable competition and domination by the East
– this war actually costs US peanuts
– huge learning gain for the US
– huge MIC profits and huge distraction for public plus excuse for more restrictive laws
Now. It’s not about being friends. It’s about reality. Reality is US is feeling no pain right now. It has gained with an early blow to it’s opponents.
Now obviously opponents will hit back. So the US will have to deal with that. But right now it still has the offramp and the off switch. Alot of how this plays out for them us timing. If they get the off ramp timing or strategy wrong it could go out of their control very very badly.
As the war continues the risk events will go out of control increases and every mistake is amplified.
The US now is on a fine fine line of taking the win and exiting while it can versus losing control.
Make no mistake as anyone in combat can tell you if this goes out of control this war will be of such a magnitude of horror that those alive will tear their eyes out wishing they had torn at their breasts to stop this.
Ash,
How long have you lived in Kenya?
“the US has gained massively. Both economically, geo politically and in terms of killing Russians and depleting their weapons and understanding Russian capacity.”
Wrong and wrong.
Russia’s weapons depleted? That is Ukie projection of their own situation (who’s side are you one anyway?).
Understanding Russian capacity? They only understand the capacity Russia has chosen to use….so far. There is much more hidden capacity that is not known let alone understood.
I detect a certain ‘style’ in Ash’s prose that reminds me of another chronic nasayer of yore that suddenly one day crossed Larry’s red line once too often.
Ash has always stood up for the US side. I don’t see anything wrong with that. What gives me a headache, so to speak, is the fact that he has a certain blind spot to obvious and significant facts which often simlpy are contradicting his views. He surely makes a certain point. But he puts too much importance on rather meaningless stuff to make those points. Like many US officials, he also tries hard to put lipstik on a pig, which makes it hard to take him seriously.
What are you looking for? An echo chamber for your views so you can avoid thinking even more than normal?
What is a naysayer? Someone who doesn’t think that the US is a serious military, economic and geo political threat? Because that’s Russia’s and China’s view too.
@Ash:
The US just got chased away from Afghanistan like a beaten dog. The US has no significant economy anymore, as they are a net importer with a huge trade deficit. We are talking 380 Million people against 1,4 Billion in China. Do I have to brake it more down for you, so you get it who really has a economy and who doesn’t? Geo-politically the US is meaningless too. All they have is only backing from their vassals. Every one else is not following their criminal agenda. Over 800 military bases scattered all over the globe, mostly used for trafficking drugs and humans. Militarily not a threat at all. That was never the intention beside creating hubs for trafficking and other outlawed activities.
Check your facts, you are way off here.
The West is defeated.
Europe will bifurcate into two (core Euroland and periphery Europe).
NATO is finished. It exists to defend Europe and it is unable too now.
USA will cease to exist as a nation in the next 5yrs. It will be subsumed into a supranational North Atlantic Union.
Russia will prevail over Ukraine and rewrite a new security framework for Europe (core Euroland).
Eurasia is rising and a new power center will emerge there with Russia at the pole position.
Interesting times ahead.
100% agreed. Exactly.
Did they assemble the senior brigades Volksturm?
Making the trans grab a rifle was a laugh out loud moment.
Why so serious?
Meanwhile in US , The Biden admin (and whoever behind them) pushed for continual of biden puppet regime in 2024. The incredible gall and smoke/mirrors pulled over ordinary american citizen are so visible for ppl outside USA . The massive propaganda directed toward Western Citizens to support the upcoming hotwar with China and Russia..
The next step will be full military mobilization in western nations due to war with China , and this will wake up the sheep but alas it is too late. The same scene of ukraine police nabbing people off the street for the meat grinder will be reenacted in the western nations..
meanwhile the western media and their ilk in internet media will push the endless ‘do your patriotic duty’ nonsense.
i dont know how many real patriots in america will reject this nonsense and take over of USA.
There is a good chance they wont try what UA did, in forced conscription here in the US. Especially the south US has a good number of people with the guns and willingness to stand up to that senile tinpot. My guess is the majority of covid un-vaxed are in the south US and the govt has not tried forcing the needle on them, for a good reason.
Russia could support a counter-revolution here in the u.s. against the neocons.
Money, weapons, strategy, information warfare.
Makes sense from their point of view…weaken our common enemy.
I agree Buntalanlucu, that that is the plan. But modern (useless too) weapons require an industrial base including mining and processing that the west no longer has nor can scale. You can print dollars all you like but you cant build a M1-abrmas (useless garbage) any faster (and you sure cant print food), I think they will full mobilize to fight internal protests from the hungry and cold and unemployed with access to guns. You know, end of Roman Empire story.
PS How do you build airplanes if you can’t access rare earths and titanium? How do you run a military if you no longer have access to the feedstock for diesel (and the reserve is empty)? And how do you rally anyone for anything if the leaders are fools and knaves and senile delusional idiots fed fantasies by their sycophantic intelligence services?
“The Biden admin (and whoever behind them) pushed for continual of biden puppet regime …”
That’s not what is going on. What is going on in the US is a coup. Once the rule of law is gone – and it is gone – there is no Constitution going to be of any use. Note the RESTRICT Act, note the charging of people for “weaponizing 1st Amendment”. What part of “shall not be infringed” allows that? And now the FDA is saying “vaccines” don’t have to affect immunity or prevent disease – redefining the word totally.
I got one Senator co-sponsoring the RESTRICT Act and another one turning in names to Twitter for banning. What, I’m going to ask them please, please, please stop?
Gonzalo Lira did a vid maybe 2 months back, the word in spanish is “auto-golpe”. Tucker’s speech at Heritage touched on all the points – only he doesn’t make the jump to “coup”. Not yet.
The population in the west is old and unfit, and the west has no industry to support an intensive war.
If they try conscription, most of the conscripts will claim to be TG, they’ll need one week off a month because of their period pains, and then most of them will get pregnant.
It will be the greatest schmozzle the world has ever seen. The biggest threat to Russia and China will be a hernia from laughter.
Very good analysis. There is a long way to 2024
Presidential election. Biden is awful but has a good chance now of reelection. The media will be rare form to pull this off. The American public is so misinformed through apathy, poor education, and stupidity that Biden will win. Kamala is being groomed to assume office when Joe steps away gracefully.
Yesterday I was watching a short video of some VDV advancing in a trench cleaning op backed up by a rolling barrage. The shells where landing about 100 feet from them … the radio was yelling coordinates, a short pause in the shelling, then the officer push the troops forward down the trench and stop them 100 feet further, two bleeps on the radio ; then the shelling resume a bit farther… This 30 seconds of images actually said a lot more thing than the raw image and the pure violence distilled.
-You can’t do that kind of combat maneuver without highly trained personals on the ground , top-notch communications and a working chain of command.
-You don’t use that kind of high risks methods if you can do another way : they were determined AFU in this trenches, very determined. Surely outgunned but not defeated yet.
-This kind of shelling can occurs only when your own guns are near the 0 and don’t risk any kind of counter battery shelling. Igor’s ANT-PQxx destroyed list seems very plausible now.
This already was a dirty war and it’s becoming dirtier everyday. This cannot decently be televised : gore, violence , dead bodies , blood and guts on the CBS evening news with the meal tray ; bon appetite ! But there is major difference between not showing something and not talking about it at all, nor what enable those situations.
Western press is a failure.
Having troops advance right behind their own artillery (danger close) is the culminating peak of a trained and hard force. People have confused my posts left and right. I respect Russia, I don’t LOVE Russia.
And my huge problem with this Ukrainian idiocy was this. The US had a huge bluff going on. As we have since we “won” World War 2. Maintained by the Hollywood illusion thru our string of military debacles since. The Russians still had a bit of subliminal inferiority going on dated back to the Soviet collapse. And of course, as all armies are, the Russian were rusty. The ‘Strak’ parade field Generals and Sgt Majors were running the show. Not the killers.
And now they have won. The killers are running the show. The weapons that work are being produced. We just TRAINED Russia to beat us. And built their confidence up. Literally a consequence far beyond the shithole of Ukraine. Russia has remembered who they are. A dangerous thing. It is a old trope, but a valid one. We should have left that sleeping bear alone.
I have HUGE respect for Rx. I don’t think that Putin is two-faced. I think that he is a straight shooter and just plain loves his country and does the best for it. Anything wrong with that?
I have not seen the Russia that he has navigated wrecking havoc on half the world and pretending straight faced that they are the good guys.
I have instead seem him take a lot of CHEAP SHIT, as we used to say, from the likes of pretenders like Obama et al, and seemingly turn the other cheek. He, and Russia, have been insulted and humiliated by swamp scum like cretin Lindsay Graham and other certified morons, principally, but not exclusively, from USA.
Imagine that an elected official calling outright for the assassination of a world leader!? I mean how do they come up with this shit?! Just who the fuck do they think that they are?!
Are other world leaders paying attention to that shit and concluding that this crap is WAY out of line.
Rx is exactly where it should be and taking it’s measured time in bring about what they have obviously laid out meticulously since way back. With Putin at the helm I have no doubt that it will materialize.
Wasn’t Sleazy Graham crying for more money for his campaign? One of the problems has been the overconfidence of western societies in believing their own superiority by beating up weak countries in these low intensity wars against militaries without superior navies or air power. Then the tight suites middle class professionals started thinking they were leaders instead of inflated managers and started making decisions that made them look tough when in reality they are clueless. The result is this shit show.
“We should have left that sleeping bear alone.”
Didn’t Bismarck say something similar to the German Generals itching to go to war with the Russians all those years ago?
No, it was a Japanese general, I think Yamamoto, who said after Pearl Harbor: “I fear we might have awoken a giant”.
Yes, correct.
alas the once strong industrial giant called US of A become fat and decadent after decades of imperial rule and now it did the same mistake as the imperial japan , that is poking the sleeping bear and sleeping dragon AT THE SAME TIME
No, it was a Japanese general, I think Yamamoto, who said after Pearl Harbor: “I fear we might have awoken a giant”.
other than bottomless stupidity paired with endless greed on the part of the military-industrial complex, the only viable answer to the questions that larry johnson so eruditely poses is that ukraine is effectively laying the groundwork for an eventual, full-scale attack on russia by NATO forces.
the reason for such a strategy? the collective west today finds itself at the very last moment in modern history to stand even a remote chance of taking on the combined military power of china and russia: it really boils down to the geopolitical realisation: “it`s now, or never”.
so “now” it may very well will have to be.
‘The leaders in Kiev are behaving like depraved junkies…’
I think the words ‘behaving like’ are unnecessary in the above sentence. I wouldn’t restrict the observation merely to Kiev.
There is no strategic thinking in the West re Ukraine. Strategic thinking would be to decide a political objective (say, restore Ukraine’s 1991 borders), calculate the force required to achieve that, produce the kind and quantities of arms and ammo required, recruit and train the army required, deploy everything at the right places and times to supply that army achieving their glorious victories.
In contrast, the Ukrainians finds themselves begging and borrowing anything and everything, trying to talk up a victory whilst the poor grunts do battle with hand-me-downs and shortages of everything except grit and courage by the looks of it.
Strategic thinking requires patience, something that cannot be tolerated in a political landscape of a 24×7, 30 second soundbite news cycle where perceptions of poll-driven popularity, or lack thereof, dominate political attention.
“Ukraine adheres to the one-China policy and hopes to develop comprehensive cooperation with China to open a new chapter in Ukraine-China relations and work together to maintain world peace and stability. Zelensky presented his views on the current crisis in Ukraine, thanked China for the humanitarian assistance provided to Ukraine, and welcomed the important role of China in restoring peace and resolving the crisis through diplomatic means.”
This according China government read-out of Xi Jinping and Volodymyr Zelenskyy telephone conversation — and Zelensky this morning tweets:
“I had a long and meaningful phone call with 🇨🇳 President Xi Jinping. I believe that this call, as well as the appointment of Ukraine’s ambassador to China, will give a powerful impetus to the development of our bilateral relations.”
This may indicate a theory for western war on Ukraine, in particular the west’s Feb. 2014 bloody coup [and past and present ongoing and war]: to destroy the new silk road [the part running through Ukraine, to interrupt Europe dimension of coming Eurasian economic integration], or call this BRICS, or belt and road initiative. . . etc. . . — via destroying Ukraine.
China is in effect saying: so sorry, aint’ gonna happen. . . you may destroy, but we will build it back. . . and RF is de nazifying the lands. . . de nazifying another word for disinfecting the Liberal Virus in Ukraine — and elsewhere perhaps as need be?.
https://www.eastisread.com/p/chinese-readout-of-xi-zelensky-phone?r=bl054&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1651184756623802368
Make of it what you will. . . .
-30-
So much analysis has focused on the RF’s preparedness and long term strategy, and Ukraine’s capacity to resist the SMO.
Russia has made clear that the US Empire’s actions have constituted an existential threat that necessitated the SMO. For me, the biggest question is, given the course of the SMO, the unforeseen negative consequences to the US of the US’s financial sanctions, and the possible collapse of the debt-financed Western system, does the US see WWIII as the only course for it to take?
Given the history of US military advocacy, by MacArthur in the Korean Conflict and by such as Curtis LeMay during the Cold War, of the use of nuclear weapons, as well as the history of failure of US conventional war since the Pacific Theatre of WWII, does the world face nuclear annihilation?
Due to those questions, I believe US domestic politics are much more important than the daily grind in Ukraine, where the outcome is obvious.
Roger Stone, who got Trump elected back then, says a Trump-RFK ticket would be the best way to go.
Now that Tucker Carlson is free of Fox meddling, anyone say politics?
Heard a few times he my have ideas.
Just sayin’ , a Trump-RFK-Carlson ticket is curtains for the Complex!
We certainly live in interesting Times!
If Ukraine needs US weapons, ammo and equipment they should talk to the Taliban. They have plenty.
Those already long acquired and reverse engineered by China.
”
Mars thereby in his rage
in Cancer
habitat of the living soul
in man
waiting for encounter
in the cities of the world
Mars
‘in the Dschungel of cities’
raging for all
in Bachmut and
Avdevka
by the
armed conciliator”
17. Week 2023 Sun’s Sovereignty in the Roots – Mature Spirit on the ‘Theater of War’
https://astromundanediary.blogspot.com/2023/04/sun-in-roots-mature-spirit-on-theater.html
The West and the Ukrainians have already accepted that an offensive will be a failure with respect to their stated goals (capturing Crimea blah blah). So they’re now saying that the goal is to get the Russian leadership into panic mode and so pave the way for unseating Putin and bringing down the Russian Federation. Sure, that’s as unlikely as anything else. But the point is that the counter offensive may not be a traditional military operation with clear operational goals. Instead it may be scheduled as a big terror operation where the goal is to do as much harm as possible, especially to civilians and civilian infrastructure. And the cost in Ukrainian lives doesn’t matter at all. The depleted uranium fits this to a T.
Ask yourself: In Ukraine’s situation, what would Adolf do?
(My guess: dirty bomb)
“…what would Adolf do? ”
What he did: arm grandpas and grandsons with pistols and shovels to fight the red army, then suicide. So far, Zelensky has got the first part done. We’re waiting for the suicide.
As for a mass killing of Russian civilians, the west may be suicidal enough to do that, but it is a very bad tactic, if you hope to live.
Seriously, no one should want to bring the Great Patriotic War into the Russian present.
You’re 100% correct. During the final months Adolf also ramped up the concentration camp killings. He even sent rockets at London with no military purpose. In that same spirit Zelensky’s advisor, Mykhailo Podolyak, just declared that Kiev “legally has the right to destroy everything that is on the territory of the Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.”
Hopefully the US will leave Ukraine like they left Vietnam, Afghanistan and all their other failures. But I doubt the current US administration can swallow the conditions Russia will impose. So a horrible ending in Ukraine is not off the charts. The only joker that can save the day is China.
…and that would include the territory of the USA…
Thank you
“Ukraine is launching artillery and HIMARS missile strikes on civilian targets. Those attacks do nothing to weaken Russia’s tactical and strategic situation.”
Indeed, this is an enigma that I haven’t seen explored & explained very much. It really makes no military sense. And it doesn’t make sense from a Western-propaganda point of view; the RF is even attempting to emphasizing this to the Western audience as an indictment of the AFU’s senselessness. It doesn’t make sense as an attempt to demoralize the RF and Donbass troops, it is more infuriating and motivating for them. It only makes some warped sense for the Ukranian audience, showing that “in spite of all this, we can still kill the people in the Donbass!”. But who would choose to do that, to waste military resources in this way? Obviously without a care to improve the military situation?? Some sort of senseless hate lunacy?
If someone can shed some more rational light on this, please..!
For me smacks if desperation and defeatist revenge. We cannot win militarily so we are going to punish the civilian polulation.
This is more a tactic to anger Russia and to maybe force them to do something rather emotional than rational. It’s not working.
I just hope Russia will put all those Ukie politicians and whatnot before a tribunal for the crimes they committed and put them away forever in some distant gulag to think about what they are and what they did. No death sentence to them, that would be too easy.
I suspect that those who do this are not Ukrainians (who lead them): they are those who have an interest that this war does not stop for any reason, exacerbating emotions…
Jim Rickards CIA ret on the financial portion of the war:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/rickards-were-our-own-worst-enemy
///Almost 10 years ago, I sat in a secure conference room at the Pentagon and explained to a group of U.S. national security officials from the military, CIA, Treasury and other agencies that the overuse of the U.S. dollar in financial warfare would eventually drive countries away from using dollars in international transactions for fear that they could become the next target of U.S. displeasure.///
///Russia Has Been Preparing for This
Russia saw all this coming, and has been preparing accordingly.
In 2009. Russia’s gold reserves were about 600 tons. By the time the sanctions were imposed in 2022, Russia’s gold reserves were close to 3,000 tons. They had spent that 13-year period acquiring 2,400 metric tons of gold.
If you think that’s easy, it isn’t. It’s not easy at all to acquire anywhere near that amount of gold. But they were like Steady Eddie, The Little Engine That Could.
They bought 10 to 30 tons per month like clockwork, about 250 tons a year, sometimes more, sometimes less, but over 13 years they got to that 3,000-ton level.
They’re very transparent about it. But they were anticipating financial warfare from the U.S. and its allies.
So when the sanctions were imposed, Russia’s total reserves were approximately $600 billion, but almost 25% of that, about $150 billion, was in gold. And I’m talking about actual gold bullion held in safe storage in Russia, not gold futures contracts or ETFs because they’re just as easy to freeze as any other asset.
That was not a complete answer to the sanctions they were facing, but it was a very substantial move in the direction of insulating themselves from being kicked out of the dollar system.
Well, all I can say is that I warned the Pentagon about this in 2009 when I conducted financial war games. I also wrote about it in my book Currency Wars, which came out in 2011. Now it’s all playing out before our eyes. China, of course, has been doing the same thing as Russia to escape dollar dominance.///
Congratulations to James Rickards
BTW the RF itself is a substantial gold producer, making it easier for the state to ramp up the bank gold reserve unobtrusively over the years.
Bird’s Eye View: That line of red circles on the map , what does it symbolise other than the S.W. corner of the Russian Federation (at least to Russia and China). In which case, for the Ukraine to ‘retake’ Crimea, that would imply the attempted destruction of the Russian Army via an invading force. Considering that Ukraine apparently doesn’t have enough ammo in its present situation, what will they use against the Russians? Magic bullets and magic amulets to ward off Russian bullets? Liddell Hart, British military historian and analyst, suggested that a prime objective in a war is for one opponent’s leadership to unbalance the other opponent’s leadership. What’s the scorecard? On one side; Biden, who, chained by age & by the “ghosts of Viet Nam”, lacks boldness or creativity. Nuland and her band of Neocons, who are aggressive but unable to see past their noses, Zelensky – who is strung out between the aforementioned and his Ukrainian circle. On the other hand , there are : Putin, who has applied the principles of akido -the defender directing the attackers energy against the attacker, himself; the Russian Chief of Staff – who are fighting with one hand behind the back, and Xi – now, the prospective peacemaker. The US/NATO/Europe/Ukraine – the plan and objectives are incoherent and delusional; Russia (& China) – defend the borders , prepare for a larger war, & develop alliances. The Czech President says it’s not in China’s interest to end the conflict in the Ukraine. A possibility, perhaps, the West would be bogged down in Europe and could not ‘pivot’ effectively ‘East’ to address the ‘Taiwan’ question. . So using Pavel’s own logic, then it would seem that it would be in the interest of the ‘West’ not to prolong the war in the Ukraine, if they want to focus elsewhere. The strategic response -Alice in wonderland logic. With stupid people -peaceful coexistence – a dream. A Ukraine offensive – “An Abject Failure” from the git go.
Once the Ukrainian air defence is gone, made up of mostly the variants of the S-300 and BuK systems inherited from the USSR, it’s the end, the Russian air supremacy will change the course of the operation noticeably, and the time is getting closer:
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/pentagon-ukraine-air-defence-likely-run
Did you hear Senator Rubio suddenly waking up and calling Russia a ” great power.” Just because you call a great power a “gas station,” it doesn’t make it so. While for many Americans, the Nazis are the Hollywood domain, in all my years in the USA I never met a person whose his grandfather died in WWII, while in the former USSR I didn’t know anyone whose family didn’t experience a death in WWII. It’s impossible to explain here to people untouched by war, what Nazism mean. It’s like talking in parallels. And even if in the Western Europe Nazis did atrocities, in the USSR they removed any pretense of civilization. There were entire villages in Russia where only women and children were left – all men were killed in WWII. Now it’s like Russia is talking in vacuum trying to make the West comprehend what 27 million people killed by the Nazis means and why Russia is fighting so hard to stop Nazism.
I never cease to be astonished how unaffected people are void to comprehend the suffering of others. Must be some sort of inherent flaw in the spices.
Take USA people seemingly oblivious to the massive amount of meyhem, misery, suffering, death and destruction rolled out on a very sizeable amount of people worldwide. With supposedly 800 or so military bases, ubiquitous naval groups throwing their weight around, seems nobody nowhere can escape the claws of the beast. Tell that to a neocon or just die hard American “patriot” and he or she will either deny it or freign indifference.Or of course, it’s for their own good!
Truth is that the bullying scam has been going on too long and looks like the constant hype has gone to the head of the criminals running the show.
I see a lot of commenter here going around and around with the different possibilities and scenarios of how the hedgemon can possibly wiggle out of this one and pointing out so and so defects and miscalculations of Russia and it’s flawed leader.
One of the major and overlooked premise of Sun Tzu is regarding the “ánimo” of the opposing leaders, troops, and in fact people that comprise a conflict.
What to me is blatantly obvious about this essentially world wide blitzkrieg being waged by the USA is that the hedgemon is throughly corrupt and stenchingly rotten to the bone. All cohesion and solidarity within the masses has been systematicly destroyed by the incompetence and greed by the government and leaders. There is to me no way that this can be corrected without massive internal conflict. The government scum will not back down and will only further dig in. The clampdowns will eventually incite the people to violence. USA people are well armed and pushed against the wall will fight. It will not be so easy to take them.
USSR after the Bolsavik genocide took more than 70 years to fall and now almost 30 years for Russia to come to its senses, and that great fortune was thanks to a truly gifted leader at the right time and place.
I predict something of the sort for USA in the next 100 years. That is if the planet survives the crazies pulling the trigger nuclear.
Does the average Ukrainian hate the Russians that much, so that they are willing to die en masse or get crippled for life?
And if the Ukraine would be about to win and the West threatend to destroy Russia, what than. According to the Russian doctrine, the rockets with the nuclear warheads would start flying toward Washington, Berlin, London . . . And then, the winner is ???
The real enemy sits not in Moscow, not in Washington. The WEF is only a manifestation. But where are they? Any idea?
USA has the best brainwashing machine ever made. Average (and other) Ukrainians have been tumbling in it for a while. Effect in individuals vary. Some volunteered to kill/die, some left the country, some are hiding from conscription, and most are just going with the flow. CNN says that they are winning, and everyone wants to be on the winning side.
“CNN says that they are winning.”
Yes, winning like Germany in May ’45. And if you didn’t confirm that “we” are going to win, you got shot. Coward!
Estimates are about 600.000 losses on Ukrainian side, up till now. Dead, wounded, missing and defected (smolest number) soldiers. And they started with around 1 Million. That’s some kind of winning. And they are loosing at an ever increasing number every day.
Dogs, do you want to live forever?
I’m more interested in the stupidity virus infecting the US, which causes it to ignore logistics, than the tactical details in Ukraine.
For a long time the US has had an unbroken record of backing the loosing side in wars and usually destroying the area where the war was fought. So Ukraine is a goner, and I’m not very interested in the details about that.
Many of the essays I’ve read in the last month addressed issues having to do with the logistics of the war in Ukraine.
As I was mulling this over, it occurred to me that many US produced war movies, prior to Vietnam, had logistics issues as part of the core plot. Then all that disappeared, and the US produced war movies focused on politics and heroism. This is pretty bizarre when you think about it.
A key nail in the coffin for Germany and Japan in WWII was the loss of fuel for their trucks, ships, and planes. I remember stories about heroic efforts to pound that nail into the coffin.
I even remember stories where the cook was a key part of the plot because lots of decent quality food is needed to keep people on their feet when doing lots of heavy, physical work, like war. Then cooks became an ignored disposable resource.
Now I read that the German tanks going to Ukraine fire different shells, depending on which county sent the tank to Ukraine. This is in addition to many different kinds of tanks being sent to Ukraine. Worse yet, how is Ukraine going to defend its complex supply lines without air power?
And the stupidity virus is causing the US to treat all of this as distracting, petty detail. That is amazing.
Why has the US become so stupid in the last 60 years?
This guy speaks Russian with a Russian accent.
Why do you think he is Ukranian?…
I hope that man in the video survives the war. He has courage and Ukraine will need people like him in the future.
GO VLAD!