Let me state up front that there are many brave, courageous Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their nation. Unfortunately, many of these soldiers are irredeemable bigots. It is indisputable that many in the ranks of the Azov battalion celebrate Nazi “theology” and embrace Adolf Hitler. No amount of rewriting history can erase the bloody legacy Hitler carved into the land and peoples of Europe during the Second World War.
So what are we to make of Justin Banse? You will meet him in the following video. He does not strike me as a racist or an anti-semite. He seems like a fairly normal 22 year old who is not a deep thinker and not well educated. Maybe that explains how he could have joined forces with some modern day Nazis.
If you take the time to watch the video — warning, it is more than 3 hours long — you will understand my confusion. It is a shame that the guy conducting the interview is so clueless. He should have pressed Justin to explain how he could excuse the Nazi beliefs and then fight along side the Azov guys. But he did not.
In a way, Justin is a victim of his prior military service with the United States. What he experienced as combat against the Taliban (I’m assuming that he did), was not real war. His testimony in this video perfectly illustrates a point that Andrei Martyanov makes repeatedly — i.e., the United States has not experienced a peer to peer war since Korea. Justin’s account also confirms a point I have made in previous posts about the lack of artillery and air support for attacking Ukrainian units. They are relying solely on ground forces and vehicles and those are no match for heavy artillery, rockets, missiles and aerial strafing.
Justin does inadvertently reveal the problems facing the Ukrainian soldiers. For example, he states that the 200 man company he was assigned to was ordered to Mariupol. He was left behind and the company was wiped out. None returned, according to Justin.
I feel sorry for the kid. His very soul was scarred by this experience and it will haunt him for the rest of his life. He has discovered the sickening reality of war that combat veterans of World War I and World War II experienced, regardless of the army they fought for.
Justin’s account of the casualties inflicted on his unit corroborates the daily briefings by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Some Western analysts have insisted that the Russians are lying or exaggerating. Based on Justin’s emotional recounting of his experience, it would appear the Russian MOD is understating the casualties inflicted on Ukrainian units.
I think the war in Ukraine is entering a new phase. Russia has reinforced troops on the front and supplied them with additional fire power. At some point before the end of the year I anticipate that Russia will launch a massive counter offensive. No matter how tenaciously and bravely the Ukrainian troops fight, they are at a disadvantage. They have limited supplies of artillery shells, reduced armor and no air support. While not impossible, it is unlikely that they will be able to stop a full blown Russian attack across a broad front.
Compounding the dilemma of the Ukrainian troops is the growing difficulty to resupply their front line fighters with ammunition, weapons, food and vehicles. Russia’s strategy of crippling the electrical power grid of Ukraine is working and this, in turn, is making it more difficult to keep open the lines of communication.
I hope you take the time to watch this video. While it is the story of just one soldier caught in hell, I believe it is representative of what Ukrainian soldiers are experiencing in their battles with Russia.
I think care should be exercised when using words like “many”.
The size of the Azov battalion is a few thousand at best. There are others – ‘right sector’, ‘Kraken’ etc. etc. – but I think they are a small part of the overall military (assuming the VSU is 100-200,000 active soldiers right now). Hence, most VSU soldiers dying in Ukraine are ordinary people who are fighting for their country, conscripts many of whom probably do not want to be there in the 1st place. I would even imagine that many of them probably do not like to be fighting along people from Azov battalion. In normal times I would think many of them would probably even be inclined to not have these structures active in their country but it is war and war brings out the worst in people and Ukr priorities are to fight RFA with all means.
As for the rest of the article – yes, the whole global south is expecting this, now legendary, Russian offensive. Yes, Ukr is toast if this ever happens, which I think is somewhat of an “if” right now. I am still of the opinion that Putin is hoping not to have to do this and instead to negotiate a solution with the west while parading the “threat” of 300+ thousand soldiers and equipment. Any reasonable leader would try to avoid war but you know what they say about a reluctant fighter – they can easily lose.
RT is reporting that Turkey is going to supply its newest MLRS systems to Ukr. Israel is threatening to send its ballistic missiles to Ukr if Russia does not refrain from collaborating militarily with Iran. For the most part, I think people around the world are ready for this war to end one way or another, nobody wants to operate in constant uncertainty – not even countries like India, China etc. – as much as they are (silently) on Russia’s side, they need stability. In other words – even favorable or neutral countries are starting to get nervous and thinking about picking a side (which as time goes on does not favor Russia). I think pressure is mounting on RF to either make things happen or lose support in the global south and even see this support start tilting towards Ukraine.
“For the most part I think” and then “I think pressure is mounting on RF”. And your thinking is based on … ? What you read in the New York Times? The WaPo? What your barber told you the last time you had a hair cut? Truly, if you don’t actually have anything other than an opinion no matter how well or how hastily it was formed then you might as well go on Twitter where everyone has an opinion but no one needs to mention any facts. Where are your facts? What are your sources?
Public posturing by Israel or rumours about what Turkey might do, regardless of where they appear, be it RT or any other outlet, don’t add up to a ball of snow in a heatwave. As for China and India being “silently” on Russia’s side, I suggest you go back and read the numerous statements from each country’s foreign ministry on the topic before you toss that one into the mix. But then again, this is only my opinion.
Oddo is right. Support for Russia is decreasing in global south. I love here now and it’s obvious that people just want this war to end now,no one here is a fan of the West they knows the West are predators but there is frustration as to why Russia is not just finishing this and a feeling that if they can’t finish it they better just get a deal somewhere.
There is sympathy for Russia but there is also realism that this needs to stop now for the good of everyone.
That said there is also genuine anger at the West over sanctions and bullying and people are sick and tired of predator nations. In particular telling them what to do.
Alignment with Russia and enthusiasm for brics is massively based on China’s appeal more than Russia and also trade with India and has nothing to do with supporting Russia in the war.
The West is also trying to break up brics. See UK state dinner for South African President. Huge number of trips south. Bolsanaro was more pro West.
Tike is still on Russia’s side but there is war fatigue everywhere and hardship.
If Russia wins the global south will be relieved as it’s push back for predators. But right now with record droughts and oil up the war need to end.
Support for Russia is decreasing in global south. I love [sic] here now and it’s obvious that people just want this war to end now,no one here is a fan of the West they knows the West are predators but there is frustration as to why Russia is not just finishing this and a feeling that if they can’t finish it they better just get a deal somewhere. — Ash
Yep, American alright. Just moved somewhere south of the border and now you’re speaking for the entirety of the global south? Only an American would be so presumptuous.
Russia will do what is necessary for Russia, when Russia decides the time is right. You’re free to armchair general, of course. But, at this moment, Russia does not need to stop fighting. Ukraine does.
The narrative you’re pushing is propaganda. G-20 meeting didn’t quite go as expected? Running out of Ukrainians?
))) when people fail to understand things are called one name…..i refuse to display that name here…your argument that support for Russia if failing all over is at least laughable if not silly
I collect data all over Africa, MENA, bits of Asia to analyse geopolitics and financial risk and have been doing so for a decade. I’m fluent in several African languages, I understand the culture. So I guess I can’t speak for the rest of the global South but I am familiar with lay and government thinking in these regions. Oh and South African mother. I like Disney though.
If you are really all that concerned about when the Russian ground offensive will begin go to a weather website and follow the weather in Ukraine. It won’t start until the ground freezes, and vehicles can move. From Lviv to Kyiv to Kherson it’s not there yet.
This war will only stop if Russia pushes forward. It’s clear there’s nobody in Ukraine’s top to have a rational discussion with. And USA understand only force. Didn’t you notice he how Austin now changed the tune from the “rusty Russian tanks” to the ” impressive weapons”? Didn’t NATO say that they want to bring Russia in its knees on the battlefield and Putin replied ” go ahead and try”? On the contrary to what you said, the longer the war drags, the more counties see what’s going on. How many new members applied to BRIC by now?
I live in the Global South and I don’t see any sign of diminishing support for Russia. Not only is the Russia’s position well understood, at least by the intelligent people with whom I relate, people do realize that a defeat for Russia in this Existential Battle bode well for the rest of humanity, which has felt the jackboot of Western colonialism, imperialism and unremitting violence.
I am curious how does the West’s progressive feminist social women’s rights gay trans rights racism etc… play? It seems to be the focus of a lot of NGOs too. Is it hated? or not even looked at much? It seems on the surface like a direct attack on Islam.
That explains why French President E. Macron was so impatient to visit the African continent a couple of months ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4K37nALVNnk (French)
https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220725-macron-embarks-on-african-visit-to-renew-relationship-with-continent (English)
Really? About 6 African countries quietly put restrictions on Russian money in their banks in the last 6 weeks.
It’s a mixed picture in Africa in terms of moral support but on the economic differing from what countries actually do. Every country is suffering from sanctions impact, especially Africa, and cooperating with the US demands. The last UN vote against bioweapon investigation showed African countries notably those on SC voting with US against UN investigation into US biolabs in Ukraine.
There is growing unrest in several countries as economies weaken and crime is up. Coupled with severe drought eg in East Africa and uptick in construction material, big casual employment sector, whole sectors are struggling. Look at Ghana and Kenya.
Risk of unrest is at an all time high as IMF loans were taken post covid and US has forced those taking them to remove subsidies on fuel and food.
Tanzania was clever though, they have embraced Russian tourists and are reaping that benefit particularly in Zanzibar.
“people do realize that a defeat for Russia in this Existential Battle bode well for the rest of humanity…”.
Did you mean “ill” instead of “well”?
That would seem to fit the gist of your comments better.
Your mistake is thinking that Russia “needs” the Global South. Even Putin himself has said that Russia or the “Ruskie Mir” is a civilization ie it can exist survive and thrive quite easily on its own without the West or the “global south.” They’re going according to their own timetable and they don’t care for the opinions of the likes of you. Thousands of years have taught them patience… something you never quite get from playing Call of duty.
“… the likes of you” sounds like a Euro Maximus biggot.
In case it hasn’t dawned on you yet, all indicators point to Europe sliding back into the backwater continent it used to be before the Arabs brought civility to Spain from India and China.
The hubris of Europeans is laughable, no economy, no natural resources, no armies, no family structure only a blood liable to the Global South.
Putin knows he doesn’t have the population to survive on his own. He needs alliances.
Well, Iran will just take it’s drones back in that case.
Does Russia need the global South? If it intends to be part of an alternative financial system you bet it does, hence Lavrovs many visits South.
Russia has absolutely tried to limit damage to global South in course of the conflict. See grain exports.
It may not need the South to survive, but to thrive yes it does.
@ Ash… you are correct. Russia and China are about the long game, One Belt, One Road initiative. This system is conducive to trade and cooperation. If a country is on the belt, it must allow everyone’s trade to transit for its trade to transit in return, even its enemy, as in India and Pakistan. I predict that after trade and commercial cooperation has been established for a few years, old problems and costly rivalries started by the English and Americans to divide and conquer, will be a thing of the past.
As an American, I am afraid that in 10 to 20 years, the Global South will begin to blacklist the global North as agents of corruption. I predict China will take over the Debt of Developing Countries by paying off IMF loans from its held Dollar reserve, while giving developing countries better loan terms and cooperation.
What you say is not wrong but the mistake is to think that the war in Ukraine is all there is to the conflict with the west. Even if Tussia stopped now, there are a myriad of social, political, cultural and economic undercurrents that sooner or later will wreck the present west centric world order. The war in Ukraine is just an accelerant but more of a symptom than an essential cause of the geopolitical situation.
With all the points and arguments, one should not forget to base everything on one absolute premise. No matter how the war ends, the sanctions policy will be maintained. There is no reason to believe that Western leaders would stop them even if Russia were defeated, and we know that these people are willing to bring great suffering and poverty to their own nations in the service of a supposed greater cause.
This is one fascinating discussion for sure!
In the short run the Empire of 800 military bases, sophisticated pipeline destruction machines, and god knows how many NGOs stirring up trouble everywhere will not go quietly into that goodnight. So it’s going to be sturm und drang for many years.
In the long run the West has maneuvered itself into fighting a country that has all the food, the oil, gas, and resources the world needs, and another that could be called the Europe of Asia that manufactures everything that modern life requires, and a third which has crying needs for all the above. So the West will gradually sink into irrelevancy while taking a lot of humanity with it.
Without Russia there is no BRICS. If Russia doesn’t not come out of this with success essentially we are all (ENTIRE WORLD) is slated for Globohomo’s technogulag. And there ain’t gonna be nothing to stop it. It’s do or die for all parties. I have always been very US Patriotic and I still am for the dream that was America but this isn’t it. At least not for those of us cognizant of what’s really happening . If Russia is able to make the US look foolish and retreat it will NOT be another Afghanistan withdrawal. The emotional impact will send things spiraling to hell. In other words it’s going to get very rough here. I’m counting on it though understanding that it’s necessary for humanity to survive and have any chance of Free Will. Only severe pain will energize the masses into demanding change.
I completely agree with you. This proxy war is THE existential war of the insanely corrupt Western globlist elitist bankers who have sponsored wars for centuries and have no moral or ethical compass. They topple regimes and prey on the suffering of other nations to enrich the executives in their military industrial complexes as well as other dependent industries, they create terror and lies with NGOs and brutal militarised regimes of which they have no bond other than to do the Western banking cabal’s orders of the moment to ensure their financial dominance. The practice financial blackmail and psychological projectionist rhetoric and ultimately are the masters of hypocrisy. They bankrupt their nation states by bribing corrupt politicians and are traitors to their own people by selling them out via the race to the bottom of Labour costs. They foment division and hate in their own countries through MSM lies and tribal wars between gays and straight, religion and non religion, rich and poor, old and young, black and white, Jews and non Jews males and females against themselves and their “trans” alter egos. This is not America or the West my generation has been lied to about. This is a hydra that loves nothing and destroys everything in the pursuit of more money and power. Russia China India Iran BRICS+ and NGO represent THE challenge to and power to destroy this hydra of evil and they will do it. But like other contributors have said here, it won’t go quietly into that good night. We are in for decades of brutal decline in the West including I believe many social and military revolutions to change and kill the Hydra.
“I love here now?”
Your opinion/thoughts would carry more weight, maybe, if you at least took the time to proof-read your comments.
I think you don’t understand how the world works.
What keeps zone B poor, Desperate and on the edge for decades? What makes zoneB destroy each other?
It’s the power of West the complete dominance in almost every aspect of life.
Why can’t zone B farmers produce more food? Why can’t they profit from whatever natural wealth they natural wealth they have?
Answer is complete western dominance.
US subsidises it’s gaint agri companies to the tune of $400 billion a year. This it can dump corn and other agricultural produce in Mexico. Farming is no longer a viable activity in Mexico because the eco system of rural economy gets broken and once broken it takes decades of focussed effort in putting it back to health. Since Mexico is very poor or was impoverished due to comparadar elites into agreeing to it gets on a downward escalator where it’s whole society goes kaput.
Same with African countries both with agriculture. For minerals the West owns the companies that extract the energy and wealth and leave very little behind. What ever gets accumulated over few decades gets wiped out through US sown chaos and exploitation of local fault lines.
Europe too subsidises it’s agriculture to the tune of $350 billion a year. Same with Japan which does to the tune of $150-200 billion a year.
Poor countries can’t export what they can easily grow. Most are forced through IMF and World Bank loans to remove protections for local agriculture and thus can never accumulate enough capital to afford agri industries to go up the value chain.
India can’t export cotton to US. The reason is technical but the real reason is import benefits into US markets are allowed only to Allies eg Egypt. Millions of indian cotton farmers lose livelihood because of US manipulation of global cotton prices.
Bangladesh is a case point. It hasn’t had proper elections in last 10 years essentially ( whole of opposition is either jailed or boycotts leading to de facto rule of existing regime. ) regime has allied with the West and Israel. In return it gets waivers on import taxes to Europe. In just 10 years Bangladesh has turned it’s economy based only on the export of cotton and jute garments . It’s economy has increased by 30% and has caught up and passed Indias percapita GDP despite it being based on very narrow economic activity.
So if the West can no longer subsidise it’s agriculture, if it can no longer create chaos in zone B and if it can no longer force countries to impoverish themselves through IMF and World Bank then it will be the biggest releif zone B gets in more than 200 years.
Yes the world is wary how the transition is going to take place and how long it’s going to take and what upheavals it will generate. This is the reason for their silence or their profarma votes in UNGA.
I suspect Russia doesn’t want to go all out and exhaust itself while the West still has the capability to create nasty surprises. The world understands this even if they can’t say it aloud.
It’s a pragmatic policy on part of Russia to conserve it’s resources. A stalemate which weakens the adversary more than it affects itself is to Russia’s Advantage.
Don’t be silly. It’s not like Larry has a direct phone line to Putin either – all we do is analyze and form OPINIONS since we do not know many of the facts.
Any responsible leader tries to avoid war. In war people die, many times unnecessarily. Economy gets hurt, people cannot travel, they get isolated, discontent rises.
Putin tried HARD to avoid war for years. Even when he decided on this SMO, he tied the military’s arms with constraints about avoiding civilian and infrastructure damage. I THINK he gave up Kharkiv region as an attempt to satisfy the West and start negotiations. All point to a strong desire to do business with the west and the east – because that’s who Putin is and there is nothing wrong with that. All these rabid people sitting around wanting RF to “destroy the West”, I hope you know that Putin doesn’t – he wants to do business with it on equal terms is all and of course remove immediate and long term threats to his borders.
Yesterday RT had an article how Vladimir Vladimirovic is going to meet with mothers of people who were mobilized – the mothers apparently have concerns. Has ANY leader EVER in the west or in Soviet Union or in China met with the mothers of mobilized soldiers? Did GWB do this while Iraq was going on? Why is Putin doing this? We don’t know but this to ME shows that a) he may be posturing as a “people’s leader” or b) that his position is not as strong as we thought – otherwise, why would he care for the mothers so much to meet with them?
Neither China nor India have offered to get involved the way Turkey did or the West did on the side of Ukraine. Instead they are profiting by buying super cheap oil and gas with prices probably close to where Yellen’s doomed to fail price cap is (maybe even below?). Russia went to Iran to buy drones, not to China because Russia knows China will never do this.
Kazakhstan, Azerbeijan, Armenia, Georgia, these are all potential hotspots in RF’s back and RF cannot (and should not!) fight multiple wars on multiple fronts – that would be a recipe for disaster. BTW, Russia is obliged to defend Armenia as part of CSTO, yet Azeris have been kicking the s*it out of Armenia and all Putin can offer is negotiations (the man LOVES to negotiate?). I read Russian by the way, so I read a bunch of stuff and form my opinions. Do you read Russian or are your sources Larry, Martyanov, Duran …?
Look, nobody here is a fan of West’s policies. We all see what the collective west is doing to the global south, to the poor, to anyone who dares question it. But we also have to be realistic and ask questions about things.
Finally and again on the topic of opinions – go to Youtube and watch the Duran folks. They too speculate and offer OPINIONS. Mercouris’s OPINION was that there would never be a Kherson offensive. Back in August he mocked it as a crazy idea. Mercouris said HiMARS were never going to make a difference. Berletic said the same. Yet here we are, Ukrainians took Kherson… Yes, it may be temporary, yes, it may be a trap, yes, it cost thousands of lives but that’s what happens when you fight for your country. What are they supposed to do? A lot of those poor sods dying in the trenches don’t want to be there, they are probably forcefully conscripted. Also, there is no economy so a soldier’s salary may be the only thing they get, if they get it or live to get it. Yes, it is cruel but ordinary people are usually just pawns….
i guess that some people stil cant read the writings on the wall….really all those 4 telling us WHAT?????
Ukaine took Kherson? You discredited yorself right there. They did not take anything. Russia’s goals are very well known by everyone. Ukraine was defeated long time ago. Now Nato is fighting Russia using their own money, weapons and ground forces. Russia still beats the crap out of them using only a fraction of their capabilities. Today the world saw again how western AD did not work against Russian cruise missiles. But some people believe that BS Kiev is spewing about shooting down 80% of those missiles. There will always be minor setbacks as you cannot foresee everything. That does not mean Russia is not capable to defeat Nato. Wishful thinking is not how it will go down on the part of Nato and their supporters. Russian army has many ways to take it up a notch again, should Ukraine/Nato be needing another lesson how to behave. They are already whining about their last lesson.
“Why is Putin doing this? We don’t know but this to ME shows that a) he may be posturing as a “people’s leader” or b) that his position is not as strong as we thought – otherwise, why would he care for the mothers so much to meet with them?”
Or maybe he’s a human being with human responses as well as being a leader?
So, you read Russian……and you seem to be inferring that there is less disinformation and propaganda targeting Russia in the Russian language than in English?
That’s a very strange assumption indeed.
Mothers Day in Russian culture is a BIG DEAL. Far more importance placed on it than in the west. His meeting with them aligns with this date.
It does not take away from your observation that no western presidents have ever shown the same level of respect by holding such a meeting, just merely pointing this out as a contributing factor.
Here is evidence of global south pressure- Indian foreign minister in Moscow told global economy cannot take toll of war. Yes, India is silently with Russa. We want it to end soon. When Soviets (Russians) supported India in 1972 war with Pakistan, they told to end it soon. India did in 2 weeks and captured 90,000 Pakistani troops with American weapons.
And Pakistan was fighting with 30 countries pumping money and arms to the tune of 100 billion during 1971 war?
Soviet Union was a Super Power it used it’s veto to save indias ass. Soviet Union also was the only supplier of military equipment to india? What does india do for Russia except buy oil and not jump into USA lap. ( remember Ukraine and Germany who are close allies of
US and how they get shafted by it)
India asked Russia to wrap it up fast indeed!!!
You sir. Are an ass … in my opinion
the SS was only 250,000 of 13.6 million Wehrmacht. By your logic (not used at Nuremberg), unimportant.
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/ss
I don’t see how a negotiated end is remotely possible. The United States controls Ukraine and NATO, and the United States does not negotiate, it dictates. Even if The US did decide to negotiate, Russia knows that any promise made by the United States will not be kept. The only outcome that will solve this is the complete demilitarization, meaning defeat, of Ukraine.
100% correct unless the US forces the entire Zelensky government to resign and picks a government that Russiq is willing to negotiate with. In other words the US would have to capitulate in front of the world and that won’t happen. They don’t have the moral or ethical courage to admit defeat. They will just slink away living the greatest war since WWII without so much as a whimper. We are truly watching WWIII and the West has finally been shown to be what it is – a bully boy club to harass and dominate much smaller nations into economic subservience but not able to fight a peer nation or group of nations. The West where I live is a facade of hypocrisy and lies and while not all bad, is worse on balance for the world than better. It will only change when the banker’s Pilgrim’s Society Open Society and all the other groups behind the scenes are humiliated and exposed. I don’t know if that will ever happen fully to eradicate the effects of that Hydra but hopefully enough for a few generations to live in peace.
At the recent G20 meeting there was no evidence of any country except those of the West getting “nervous”.
The call for peace has been ubiquitous from the start, but most countries understand the nefarious role of NATO and coup of 2014 in leading to this war.
If you really think about it: India and China are currently the biggest profiteers of the war. Why? Look at the import cost of oil, gas and other raw materials for them.
India and China are importing Russian oil up to -30% below average global price level and exporting diesel, LNG etc. to Europe making good profits and crippling their competitors there with high energy costs.
There domestic economy and people are very happy to have access to cheap oil and fuel.
The same for Turkey.
If I where an Indian or Chinese leader I would do everything to prolong the conflict.
It is more in Russian interest to shorten the conflict or it is their plan to inflict heavy economical damage to EU/ US economy. But this will take some time.
Indian petrol and diesel prices in retail market are lower by 5 % over the last year and till the start of the SMO.
Indian government has reduced retail taxes. It makes up with it from additional taxes on manufacturing on refineries who are exporting Diesel to Europe, Gulf countries and other intermediaries.
Thank you very much!
I don’t know how ordinary mortal can arrogate to themselves the power to know what V Putin was “hoping” to do!
What do you consider Putin to be then? An immortal princess fairy or evil goblin?
He has been an effective though corrupt and intolerant leader of Russia. Let’s not pretend he’s an angel. If this war is won it’s on Gen. Armageddon. Putin is busy working for his favorite Oligarchs.
1 / Regarding what you said about UKR troops, you should know that Azov alone had some kind of “defense academy” that “educated” somewhere arround 100.000 people. When you take into account that Zaluzny (UKR suppreme commander) was photographed with armband containing swastika, and when you take into account that west can hardly make a single UKR video without someone zig heiling or having some kind of nazy symbol on itself, equipment, etc, “many” indeed appears to be appropriate description.
So yes, they are probably not more then 20-30% of whole force altogether, but still, they are very aggresive and placed on leading roles which allows them to guide entire force.
2 / All you were saying about RU wanting to negotiate at any cost was probably true before “partial mobilization”.
However, it is my opinion that since “partial mobilization” they cannot afford to leave any significant issue unresolved (Kharkov city, Odessa city, Mykolayev city, Transnistra land bridge, UKR regime change, demilitarization, destruction and persecution of nazy groups and crimes, etc…), since draft itself is very serious topic, and if they would leave any of those unresolved it would cause great deal of dissapointment in the RU government, and for next “draft” people would be massively against since they would themselves say – what is all this for, if we are not going to finish what we started.
“Any reasonable leader would try to avoid war but you know what they say about a reluctant fighter – they can easily lose.”
I think the reluctance in Putin’s case only applies to the present period, of trying to avoid the fight.
There is also another aspect, which is achieving total conviction about one’s justification. This is what the Russians might be in the process of establishing: the removing of ANY doubt in the majority about the path of force.
Every new slight from NATO, every new video of Ukrainian brutality is just sealing the Ukraine’s and NATO’s fate. A head of steam is building up in Russia.
Mobilised soldiers at first are unsure but sitting down in limbo only whets the appetite for getting done with it if diplomacy doesn’t work.
Once the Russian Federation sees clearly they’re left only with the path of war all reluctance will be abandoned, I believe.
“As for the rest of the article – yes, the whole global south is expecting this, now legendary, Russian offensive.”
If the whole global south had read up on Russian military tactics they would know that deception is included in every Russian military operation so if they’re expecting a Russian offensive this winter they may be disappointed by design.
By attacking Ukraines energy infrastructure Russia has nicked an artery and Ukraine will slowly bleed to death regardless of any Russian offensive. All they have to do is keep offensive forces in threatening positions to keep Ukraines forces dispersed then stomp out local offensives and creep forward until the Ukraine state keels over.
I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for Israel to supply weapons to Ukraine. There are still Israelis left alive that remember the Schutzmannschaft, Trawniki men and Galician SS divisions atrocities and ethnic cleansing during WW2. Many Israeli’s came from Russia and a lot of Russians retire to Israel so it’s not the simple east vs west argument many think. And even if they did supplying arms to Ukraine is a stop gap measure that doesn’t solve the energy crisis bleeding Ukraine white.
The Ukrainazis who shot captured Russian soldiers in the back of the head and videod their crimes were regular Ukie army, not Azov or other special units. But you’re right, they were just regular Ukie soldiers doin’ their thing. Wake up.
Odo? “not even countrys like India and China”.what the the hell does that mean?constant uncertainty?fortunately EU knows perfecly well its fate,they engineered it.Nato same same.IF? If wishes were fishes we would all cast nets.Russia has been straight up for the last 20 yrs.No rediculous claims and “facts.they are not Lying there way through this conflict like the so called “good Guys”I smell a troll.this is my last response to your posts,ever.
90% plus of Germans had no idea about the holocaust, 90% of Americans have no idea about US wars, whether proxy or kinetic. Does that excuse them or us from the repercussions of losing.
Wow. Magical thinking much? Turkey is aligning more and more with Russia. Turkey knows that Europe will never allow them in the EU. And will always treat them as third world savages. While Russia offers them status as a Russian gas hub. As to people tilting toward Ukraine? DUDE. It is exactly and 180 degrees the other way. The Ukrainian media NSA fantasy is unwinding by the day. And here is the final and last word. The European economy is already dead. It is a dead man walking. If it wants the electric paddles of life on the still heart, it has to cut Ukraine loose. And it will. If not now? When every current leader is hanging from light poles as people freeze and starve. Time favors Russia. The war lines could freeze now ala the Somme. And Europe and the US loses. 40% of the worlds fuel and food. Who runs BarterTown?
Turkey sent more weapons to Ukraine last week.
Turkey also reportedly attacked Al-Omar oil field in Syria (north of Deir ez-Zor), held by the Kurds and US, last night.
The Sultan spreads it around. Cold🦃.
It is confirmed that the murdering war criminals who executed Russian POWS are from border guards units,not Azov. I point that out because your (made up from?) numbers of Azov and other “right wing”,that’s Nazi for honest people mean nothing. The ultra racist ideology which calls Russians “orcs” “less than human” etc has infected not only the military but nich of the ethnic Ukrainian population,it’s OK to murder prisoners because…. As for the rest of your nonsense just get some coping supplies in for when the mobilisation turns into a major offensive against which NATO has no answer. Bear in mind Israel is good at slaughtering civilians but not so much against a determined enemy (Lebanon 2006). Making threats against Russia is loud talk nothing more.
As long as the USD, Pound and Euro accepted as legal tender internationally, the west can buy mercenaries from pretty much anywhere. So mass casualties are not an insurmountable problem. The lack of ability to mass produce armoured vehicles, artillery, and the shells and rockets for them are what dooms NATO. Likewise the belated attacks on 404’s electric grid and some rail facilities are finally complicating NATO’s logistics. So NATO can’t win a land war against Russia. But as long as they can find the cannon fodder willing to attack Russia with 10:1 loss ratios, they can continue to bleed Russia. Maybe NATO is happy to continue as long as they can?
No amount of money can attract large numbers of mercenaries for long, if their casualty rates stay high. What good is cash if you die?
Cash can help with logistical problems as well, you can pay risk-takers or active duty soldiers to drive cars/vans/trucks with supplies (why do you care if you need 20.000 cars to transport supplies to the front – 10 shells at a time, if you are paying them and their drivers with freshly printed toilet paper money), you can buy fuel – basically everything that has enough supply available.
Problem ofcourse is with resources that are not unlimited and that can create choke points, so yes, in the end, world currency is great help but its not all-powerful, and more they abuse it, faster it will stop being world currency.
Thank you mr. johnson. i will try to make time to watch at least a part of this video below yu posted above . hav listened to the 1st 25 minutes.
I Lost Everyone’ – Azov Regiment Ukrainian Soldier, TELL ALL Exclusive Interview | Savagery of War
https://youtu.be/vZ-iVzR_Yyc
found also on bitchute
https://www.bitchute.com/video/vA0qaRAlV4q1/
download links- right click and save
https://zn21g5kls-n995.bitchute.com/QriXNC761XjQ/vA0qaRAlV4q1.mp4
https://www.bitchute.com/embed/vA0qaRAlV4q1/
when i think of a date for the massive russian counteroffensive the date jan 12th,2023 comes to mind when one thinks of what will have occurred on that day 78 yrs ago in early 1945 which was the final mass russian offensive on the eastern front ending in berlin.
this ties into your story above from todays military summary.
looks like the ukraine army are just sending their troops out to die day after day like the japanese ww2 banzai charges.
i would appreciate it if someone could post a link to the video duma is talking about at the 21 minute 12 second mark of the video below
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 22.11.2022
https://youtu.be/UxsriPLkhbI?t=1256
regards,
ralph
@Ralph, here ya go, Embedded 12 minute graphic R18 video of September battle near Спорного (English ~ Spornogo – literal translation of village’s name is Controversial or Disputable) posted on Colonel Cassad’s LiveJournal blog entry (in Russian) machine translation of Rybar’s comments courtesy of Yandex Browser:
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7989574.html
Plus Rybar’s comment on the topic:
Battle in the area of Disputable near Lisichansk
Channel Military chronicle @milchronicles published (https://t.me/milchronicles/1327) video of the battle in the LPR. Judging by the footage, the video captures an episode of the September attempt of the AFU offensive to Lisichansk.
All actions take place near the fortified area near Disputable and are recorded from the drone of the 4th brigade of the LPR People’s Militia. Thanks to almost continuous shooting, you can analyze the course of the battle in detail.
First, the Ukrainian MT-LBm drives up to the front line of trenches and lands an assault group with ammunition. The armored vehicle moves away, the enemy squad enters the trench.
Coordinates: 48.8082038, 38.2838381
Soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are moving through the trenches in a southerly direction, but they meet resistance from Russian servicemen. Close combat begins, with both sides throwing hand grenades. A pair of Su-25 VKS attack aircraft appears in the sky. Then the enemy shoots down one of the copters of the 4th brigade.
Coordinates: 48.8074402, 38.2838630
After an unsuccessful attempt to take the fortified area, the AFU fighters immediately lie down in the trenches. 152-mm howitzers of the Russian Armed Forces begin to work on them, some of the shells fall exactly into the trenches. The UAV operator captures the bodies of nine killed members of Ukrainian formations.
▪️The enemy requests evacuation of the wounded. From the side of the object with a concrete fence, a group of AFU medics is moving forward, carrying the wounded out of the line of fire. The dead are left lying on the field.
Coordinates: 48.8077036, 38.2808787
Then the area of the gas station to the west of the battlefield, which acts as the APU’s close rear, is captured. It is also being hit by Russian artillery, hitting a building with a blue roof.
Coordinates: 48.8102787, 38.2691574
After evacuating the wounded, Ukrainian formations resume their attack and try to crawl through. Fighters of the Wagner PMC hit a VAZ car with an RPG, which, apparently, was previously used to transport ammunition.
Coordinates: 48.8080932, 38.2834586
The artillery of the Russian Armed Forces begins to work again on the accumulation of the enemy in the northern corner of the trenches, sending shells directly into the trenches. Eight killed and two wounded soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fall into the lens of the copter.
Coordinates: 48.8079953, 38.2836564
▪️A Russian T-72 tank arrives from the direction of Volcheyarovka, which takes up a position in the clearing and hits the gas station from a closed position. The shells fall in the north-eastern part of the facility, where the Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicle is located.
Coordinates: 48.8088331, 38.2872093
After the failure of the assault, the APU retreats to the forest plantation. A Su-34 bomber appears in the air, which strikes with ODAB-500 volume-detonating bombs.
Coordinates: 48.806170, 38.272279
What points can be singled out separately?
The video once again demonstrates the importance of fortifications. A well-built fortified area helped the soldiers of the 4th brigade and the Wagner PMC to restrain the enemy’s offensive and prevent them from taking an important position.
In the video, Russian troops demonstrated interaction not only at the level of units, but even types of troops. In addition to accurate artillery strikes, VKS planes appear in the air twice in one battle.
At the same time, you may have questions about the operation of aviation in the video. Several Su-34 bombs fell outside the target, and the moment of the Su-25 strikes did not get into the frame at all.
Due to the lack of systematic work to suppress the Ukrainian air defense system (https://t.me/rybar/39327 In the current conditions, the bomber regiments of the VKS on the Su-34 cannot fully display their full combat potential. This greatly affects the fire support of the ground forces.
@rybar
thanks 5 Eyes Hostage – really appreciate the vid and the translation
regards,
ralph
https://southfront.org/video-evidence-confirms-mass-execution-of-russian-pows-by-kiev-forces-in-makeevka/
regards,
Herm
Fighting an insurgency is different from fighting an all-out war. I think if my country, Vietnam, was capable and better equipped with more fire power, the US casualty would be much much higher than the fifty thousand-ist figure. Vietnam, in my point of view, is special in a way that it’s a combination of insurgent war and conventional war. Many US Vet returned from Vietnam was scarred outside and inside.
One can say if the Vietnamese could kick the US, then the Ukrainian certainly can do the same with the Russian. But the case is different with Ukraine. There is no common understanding among the Ukrainian people that Russian must be kick out. This is different from Vietnam where everybody, everywhere pretty much agreed the American and the puppet must be kicked out of Vietnam. Ukraine is a much more divided country, both in ethnically and ideology.
Thank you for this. The United States did not understand the culture of Vietnam. Russia is not suffering from that ignorance.
That was poignant input. I have always respected Cuban and Vietnamese backbone against withering pressure. In Vietnam an important eye opener was the self immolation of the monk in the street putting the US on notice of the spirit they were up against.
The Ukrainians have some similar spirit but I think have been manipulated too much so the people there are losing their religion.
Right now I expect a lot of plans are going toward how to deal with the power vacuum in the western partition of Ukrainian that will be Somoliafied.
Right now I expect a lot of plans are going toward how to deal with the power vacuum in the western partition of Ukrainian that will be Somoliafied. — Pym of Nantucket
No doubt. That’s the question that matters. To everyone. Depending on how Russia ends the war and settles this question will determine Europe’s future and Russia’s future security.
Their problem is how to do this without a US/NATO fueled insurgency.
Putin doesn’t want western Ukraine, IMO, but appears to have few options other than to take it. Which is exactly what the West wants and for which they prepared Ukraine… thus Russia’s de-nazification and de-militarization are important goals.
This necessity apparently informs Russia’s recent mobilization. My guess is Russia’s leadership recognized mid-summer that Zelensky was either unwilling or unable to negotiate and, with US/NATO being agreement incapable, and the only other option is allow Poland or Romania, or both, to divide western Ukraine.
There are no good choices. But, perhaps collateral damage to the electrical grid will drive a large percentage of western Ukraine’s remaining population into Europe, making their task somewhat easier…
Hello, it might be more accurate comparison to Vietnam if we have NATO in the role of China at the time, or even the USA playing China 1960s. China had 300K troops in North Vietnam in a security and support, logistics role. This does not take away from the brilliant and valiant performance of the Vietnamese.
However, Vietnam did not border the United States and was not considered a vital interest, for Russia this is an existential conflict, as Independence was for Vietnam.
Sadly, my country the USA has been marching towards Russia since Bosnia in 1995-96, I know that now.
At the time had we known we would have thought this insanity.
It is insane, in truth.
Not unlike Vietnam our adventure in Ukraine has much to do with the internal political matters of Washington, not the United States proper, but Washington, DC. In some ways DC in WW2 forward existence is dependent on war and emergency to survive in the New Deal Form –
[administrative state not elected hold power]
– you see the New Deal Administrative State was cobbled together by the emergency of the Great Depression, forged by WW2 into a working war machine, continued and institutionalized by the Cold War, and can’t survive in this form without war or emergency.
This is not a thinking enemy because it has no head, it has a nervous system, arms and an enormous stomach – but no brain.
In many ways that’s how we blundered into Vietnam.
Cheers
CNN did a story [you could actually hear them panting] about how they got a ‘leaked’ audio of a Russian soldier saying everything they wanted to hear. ‘All of these deaths were because of Putin’s unnecessary war on Ukraine’
They then showed about 100 coffins but they were Ukrainian, not Russian flags.
Christian Chuba, before believing these “leaked” audio recordings that come out of the Kiev propaganda machine — always remember that the majority of Ukrainians speak Russian! I’ve seen plenty of videos wherein Ukrainian soldiers are speaking Russian (pointed out by those who understand Russian). It’s their native language. I’ve seen the PR /propaganda machine in Kiev actually filming scenes of Russian so called “atrocities”; Blood-like makeup and dressings being applied to civilians for film / photographic scenes; the same actors/actresses being filmed in various “victim” scenes, etc. These are then given to mainstream media.
Where did I see these stagings? CIVILIANS WITH PHONE CAMERAS.
Another piece of interesting information: The Kiev government comprises actors, producers and scriptwriters. Zelensky basically filled government positions with his film production crew. This is a fact that can be verified. Hence, treat whatever Kiev releases to mainstream media as an instalment in a tragic Ukrainian reality TV series, except the dead don’t stand up and walk away after the director shouts CUT.
Zelensky doesn’t mind the high death toll of his fighters. Sadly, the more, the better it is for PR. Guaranteed, he’ll milk the huge loss as a “heroic sacrifice” in a yearly parade for decades.
BELIEVE NOTHING (coming out of mainstream media and Kiev). QUESTION EVERYTHING!
IT’S ALL ABOUT PR AND RATINGS!
I smell a little Walter Mitty here. Conveniently, all who could corroborate his story are dead. At the end, Mad dog rescued him with an arterial wound to his thigh. Then Ukrainian soldiers were wandering among their dead (not usual) in a minefield (?!). They found him unconscious in a wheat field, got him to hospital where, with heavy concussion he was loaded with meds (!). Earlier his 50 calibre had jammed, later discovered to be because of over greasing, but his vehicle had been hit by a mine. Did anyone really check the gun of a blown up vehicle…?!?
And much more…
Justin is writing a book and remembering to add details of descriptive prose of fog, sunrises, stuff.
Definitely not sure
Yes. This episode with the Russians suddenly mushrooming around — where he couldn’t see anyone, while compulsively firing into the void, caught in the distant artillery shelling — sounds a bit like a cute literary invention, for the climax so necessary for such a long story.
Agree. This fellow seems full of himself.
Ok, I can see how he could get into Ukraine to an join a BG to be cannon fodder. What I have trouble logically understanding is how he got OUT standing up.
AZOV BG are regularly placed behind regular Ukrainian battalions to ensure they understand that there is only one-direction-of-travel for them and they stand better chances advancing on the Russians.
In addition, Ukrainians are NOT allowing military age men to leave the country – this hick of a kid managed to ‘sly’ his way front the front lines to the US to tell his tale?????? Unlikely!
My ‘spidy senses’ tell me he is a fraud – partial or whole.
His round-trip journey to the front line and back is just implausible.
His round-trip journey to the front line and back is just implausible. — James Cook
War sometimes is…
My maternal grandfather was a pilot in the 8th Air Corps. He told the story of a waist gunner (IIRC) thrown from a dying B-17 over Germany. Guy fell about 18,000 feet without a parachute and walked away after landing in a dense thicket, which was confirmed by the German troops who captured him.
Can’t say if this kid is on the level or not, but…
I think it relates to the Ukrainian citizens only, men of military age (18-60). Not the foreigners. I read quite a few stories of people coming from abroad first as volunteers. The locals show them around, probably less than what this kid witnessed. Then they go back. Some of them return as mercenaries. They sign a “lucrative” contract that binds and leads straight into the meat grinder, where they slaughtered by the thousands. About 54,000 dead foreign mercs so far, given that my sources do not deceive me.
Oddo
I seriously doubt Putin is hoping to negotiate a solution. That might have been his early position but now he and Russia are in no doubt that absolutely nothing Russia negotiates with the West will last. The West will subvert and tear up any agreement as soon as convenient, even destroying NATO members such as Germany in their zeal to destroy Russia. That is not lost on Russia’s leaders or indeed its populace.
Your point about people wanting stability is no doubt right, including the Russian people.
Putin, Lavrov, et al certainly know that the only stable solution will be one Russia imposes by force of arms.
That being so, from Russia’s perspective it is critical the next stages are overwhelming. That means, so far as possible, fighting where and when they plan and winning decisively and swiftly once they commit to the main battle. I suspect that at least part of the reason for withdrawal from Kherson city was so they could not be drawn into fights inconsistent with that.
I agree and I will add they might even threaten to take out the Mark 41 Launch Systems in Poland and Romania in the process.
Hey Mr Johnson! I have news for ya. Big if true, uuge actually. It passed the smelltest the first time around. You have heard of “Bars” or Barz unit from the LNR right? Well, Barz is the commander. He`s been THE goto guy regarding comms for both the LNR and DNR militias all these years. He is claiming, that the RUArmy has no secure net. NONE. Explains how and why. It all adds up. I am floored. Their comms and fire control is open, if this dude is correct. Dude is well respected and even loved from what I can tell from where I am sitting. Pass it on for analysis to Mr Martianov please, since it is in Russian. I can not find anon channels open to him. 7 well documented pages. Mind ya, this is not an anonym nobody, not Q, he is a reputable veteran commander on the hometeam. Thanx for Your works, and since You are into the info biz, I thought You should know. I have tried to send it to Mr Ritter as well, dunno if it took.
“Why the RF Armed Forces are losing, retreating and will continue to do so” – is the catchy title of his expose. Used deepl.com to read it.
https://kenigtiger.livejournal.com/2195389.html
And CNN also says that many Russian soldiers are deserting. I just haven’t figured out what armored vehicles this time the CIA provided CNN. In the Balkans were very fancy!
Sorry, the guy`s handle is Murz, not burz or bars…mea…
I do not believe the existence of some neo-Nazis in Ukraine proves much of anything.
Look at what else is going on in Ukraine:
https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/newsroom/the-open-society-foundations-in-ukraine
Look at who in America wholeheartedly supports the current Ukraine government:
the Republican Jewish Coalition
https://www.rjchq.org/rjc_statement_on_the_russian_invasion_of_ukraine
If Nazis were a significant factor in the Ukraine government,
would the RJC support it versus Russia?
Seems unlikely to me.
Didn’t Israel and Poland insisted Germany kicked out Andrey Melnick, Ukraine ambassador for openly worshipping Stepan Bandera, Nazi mass murderer? It’s like 1933 all over in Ukraine, normal Ukrainians are afraid of their neighbors, who is they want something of yours can report you as a “Russian sympathizer” and Zelensky’s Nazi goons will take you away and nothing will protect you.
Why would they not get a kick out of using neo-nazis as cannon fodder? The RJC might “support the current Ukraine government” but only because it is a mere administrative organization with negligible sovereignty. They are decision implementers, not decision makers.
The banksters who own the West, through their captured institutions like the US Congress and State Dep’t, EMPLOY neo-nazis as enforcers. The RJC aren’t sullying themselves by hanging out with them socially over cocktails and hors d’oeuvres.
Wait, so you are using the ‘support’ of the RJC’ to assert that Banderist neo-Nazism is not ‘significant factor in the Ukraine government? Really?
Explain this one:
“2019 Stepan #Bandera year…A series of letters, from the #Polish and #Israeli embassies in #Ukraine protesting the #Zelensky governments
decision to pass laws commemorating #Nazis. They were sent only 2 years ago.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowesChay/status/1582690527316623360
Zelensky is a Banderist neo-Nazi supporter and sympathizer despite the incessant scream of him being Jewish. He is literally surrounded by Banderist neo-Nazis’.
Zaluzhny is a Banderist neo-Nazi supporter and sympathizer.
Even as far back as 2014, the West/UK/US/EU/NATO propaganda ridden media was reporting that Ukraine had neo-Nazis problems within the government and that influence has been steadily growing.
To whitewash or blatantly dismiss such to the point where ‘it only really exists in the Azov or whatever else’ is just straight denialism. The Kyiv Regime is one huge Banderist neo-Nazi cancer and is overtly and near rabidly supported in large swaths in northern Ukraine, Kyiv, etc.
But to continue to whitewash it, tamp it down, to say that it is not a ‘significant factor’ is just flat out DENIALISM.
‘Ukraine’s neo-Nazi Azov Battalion attempts rebranding’
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/06/03/ykgh-j03.html
‘Nazi collaborator monuments in Ukraine’
https://forward.com/news/462916/nazi-collaborator-monuments-in-ukraine/?amp=1
‘British Media ‘Whitewashing’ Ukrainian Neo-Nazis: UK Editor’
https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/British-Media-Whitewashing-Ukrainian-Neo-Nazis-UK-Editor-20220530-0001.html
‘Ukrainian Journalist Exposes the Azov Battalion’
https://usefulidiots.substack.com/p/ukrainian-journalist-exposes-the#details
‘Ukraine’s Neo-Nazis
https://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/en/NewsDetail/index/6/21533/Ukraines-Neo-Nazis?infinitescroll=1
‘Jon Stewart, DOD Honor AZOV BATTALION NAZI At Disney World’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-zoB_6c0cag
‘Adam Schiff meets with members of Ukraine’s neo-Nazi Azov Battalion’
https://www.worldtribune.com/adam-schiff-meets-with-members-of-ukraines-neo-nazi-azov-battalion/
“Ukrainian paratroopers singing ‘Our father is Bandera, our mother is Ukraine.’
Bandera was the leader of Ukraine’s Nazi organization and murdered over 100,000 Poles and Jews in 1943-1944.
Just in case you still think the Ukrainian military and government isn’t filled with Nazis!”
https://twitter.com/historyoarmani2/status/1582458713222262784
‘Zelensky Speech With Nazi AZOV BATTALION Prompts Greek Lawmakers To WALK OUT’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0tAWaNEhU8
Start at the 4:58 mark-
‘RT News – Sep 19 2022’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtB_r5yazsg
‘The ideology of the Banderists’
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217363.html
‘Stepan Bandera: The Life and Afterlife of a Ukrainian Nationalist’
https://cup.columbia.edu/book/stepan-bandera-the-life-and-afterlife-of-a-ukrainian-nationalist/9783838206844
“Ukronazi ‘good terrorists’ – a who’s who (infographic)”
http://thesaker.is/ukronazi-good-terrorists-a-whos-who-infographic/
‘The Presence of Neo-Nazis in Ukraine’
https://www.fairobserver.com/region/europe/medea-benjamin-nicolas-js-davies-ukraine-war-russia-ukranian-neo-nazi-fascists-azov-battalion-89292/
‘Ukraine underplays role of far right in conflict’
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30414955
‘How to Mainstream Neo-Nazis: A Lesson from Ukraine’s New Government’
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/10/21/how-to-mainstream-neo-nazis-a-lesson-from-ukraines-new-government/
‘Ukrainian Militia Behind Brutal Romany Attacks Getting State Funds’
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-militia-behind-brutal-romany-attacks-getting-state-funds/29290844.html
“Russia reacts to Azov neo-Nazi’s platform at prestigious US university”
https://www.rt.com/russia/564642-azov-delegation-stanford-university/
“2019 Stepan #Bandera year…A series of letters, from the #Polish and #Israeli embassies in #Ukraine protesting the #Zelensky governments
decision to pass laws commemorating #Nazis. They were sent only 2 years ago.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowesChay/status/1582690527316623360
‘Ukraine’s “Neo-Nazi Summer Camp”. Military Training for Young Children’
https://www.globalresearch.ca/military-training-for-young-children-at-ukraines-neo-nazi-summer-camp-recruitment-of-ukraines-child-soldiers-financed-by-us-nonlethal-military-aid/5472801
‘Kiev Street RENAMED To Honor AZOV BATTALLION’
https://rumble.com/v1q8pql-kiev-street-renamed-to-honor-azov-battallion.html
‘How The U.S. Learned To Love Neo-N@zis In Ukraine’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRi-A4WskYI
‘‘Now, All of You Are Azov’: ‘openly neo-Nazi’ Ukrainian delegation meets Congress, tours US’
https://thegrayzone.com/2022/10/05/azov-neo-nazi-ukrainian-congress/
‘Ukrainian paratroopers singing “Our father is Bandera, our mother is Ukraine”.
Bandera was the leader of Ukraine’s Nazi organization and murdered over 100,000 Poles and Jews in 1943-1944.
Just in case you still think the Ukrainian military and government isn’t filled with Nazis!’
https://twitter.com/historyoarmani2/status/1582458713222262784
‘Fast Forward to Fascism’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yvMu5HNU1A
‘The Dark Side of the Ukraine Revolt’
https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/dark-side-ukraine-revolt/
‘No cherry but watermelon picking cases of Ukraine institutionalized nazism&fascism’
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineNaziWatch/
As far as the argument that no Jews would support Neo-Nazis, there is also this guy –
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/borislav-bereza
Let me add this to my earlier comment:
https://jewishunpacked.com/can-ukraine-have-a-nazi-problem-with-a-jewish-president/
By Shaked Karabelnicoff
You have a western-centric point of view.
You see nazism only through the eyes of the jewish people.
Russians were hated by the nazis because they were considered as a mixed race.
There was a project to genocide all Russians, it was not just a war of occupation like in France.
Nazism is an anti-Russian ideology as much as anti-jew.
The West only knows the jewish part of it.
How do you think the Russian part of Ukraine is seen by the western backed nazis? Like subhumans.
National Socialism as an ideology means the emphasis is on “NATIONAL”.
NAZI – as the German variety had a large component of Jew Hatred.
The Elements of Nazi ideology are: nihilists search of mean by inventing a mythic past and then carrying that past into the present. The idea is one of a band of pure-bloods (defined in many ways) resisting the corrupting influence of a mongrel invader.
The Ukrainian brand of Naziism does not have to be anti-semitic – instead it is Anti-Russian. Ukraine as pure descendants of Vikings while the Russians are polluted by having submitted to the mongols.
In Banderas day, there was anti-semitism which does not have to be dominant in the present. The important part of Naziism in Ukraine is the mythic past. Rooted in romanticism and nihilism that fuels self righteousness which is the most addictive emotion of all.
By definition it’s confused and attracted to anything that stirs the blood – drums, torchlight parades, groups joined in martial order, snappy uniforms, arcane symbols and regalia infused with mystic meaning and suggestions of membership in an elite community.
The “Pink Swastika” has some interesting insights into the homo-erotic elements that infused the Nazi phenomenon in Germany. The desire to return to a pagan, pre-christian golden age of hyper masculinity and sexual freedom.
It is not about ideology. It’s not even about money per-se. It is about power and control. The Ukrainian Nazis are merely tools to an end, when their usefulness is finished they will be disposed of the same way HItler disposed of Rohm and his Brownshirts.
This is not the good-guys versus the bad-guys, this is “them” versus “us” and I know we all used to laugh about the faceless “they”, but recent events have revealed exactly who the enemy is, we know names and they former Nazi who runs the Open Society “Foundation” is one of them.
Larry, what the hell is going on in this cockamamie world?
Here’s a video from Italian news about the Order of Hagal bust and its ties to Azov.
https://youtu.be/s5ohlasQ1j4
Watch the table displaying all the ‘memorabilia’ found. Next to the Azov patches is a Front for Syria patch, a European neo-nazi group supporting Assad, for some reason I’m at a loss to understand. Hatred of Sunni but not Shia? Hatred of Israel? But see #3 below. Just doesn’t compute.
1) Italian neo-nazis fighting with Ukrainian neo-nazis of Azov, Right Sector and Centuria, supported by the US who Russia is fighting.
2) Italian neo-nazis supporting Assad’s Syria supported by Russia who the US is fighting by tacitly supporting Sunni salafists al Nusra etc, fighting Assad. (Leaving Kurds out for the moment).
3) Italian neo-nazis simultaneously supporting Ukrainian neo-nazis and Syria, while travelling to Israel for military and martial arts training. (I almost short-circuited on that one).
Now I understand that these neo-nazi groups, and even their foreign sponsors, aren’t the sharpest knives in the drawer and their simplistic agenda follows its own logic and immune to non sequitors but I’ll be damned if I can make heads or tales of what makes anyone tick any more. Does it really just boil down to “They’re bastards but they’re our bastards, (at least for the moment and until it boomerangs on us)”.
Man, I’m seriously befuddled.
I think the confusion comes from having convinced ourselves after WW2 that fascism is an ideology and a monolithic one at that.
And, again, the mistake comes from disregarding Lenin‘a and Stalin’s views, and Marxism in general.
Fascism is capitalism’s response to its crisis when they threaten the system itself in their essence.
As such, like capitalism itself, fascism is devoid of ideology and will wear the most convenient available cloak for the time, and, having a huge component of irrationality, absorb all the social neurosis around, of which every era has a huge supply.
In the 1930s it was antisemitism (to the point of Hitler committing resources to the final solution, a project that not only didn’t add anything to the war effort but complicated it-let’s not forget that German Jews would’ve joined the war effort I’d they’d been invited).
In the 2020s is gender ideology and “inclusion”.
Once it’s understood that these are only aspects that exist to get as many people on board as possible, by exploiting whatever the state of the culture is, and knowing that the overarching objective is the shoring up of the economic system as it was before the crisis threatened to change the status quo, all these contradictions at the level of the ranks make sense. At the end of the day, LGBT people in Britain don’t seem to know or care that they’re marching on the same side as the Ukrainian equivalent of their traditional domestic enemies (British National Front, etc) and neither do Azov thugs, despite probably declaring themselves homophobic and antisemite (what about Z!). Everyone is a fascist for their own personal reasons and that’s cool, as long as you accept the natural hierarchy of capitalism.
…people around the world are ready for this war to end one way or another, nobody wants to operate in constant uncertainty – not even countries like India, China etc. – as much as they are (silently) on Russia’s side, they need stability. In other words – even favorable or neutral countries are starting to get nervous and thinking about picking a side (which as time goes on does not favor Russia). — Oddo
Of course people around the world are ready for this war to end — we, the people, are war’s victims. Only those who profit from wars want them…
All countries need stability. But you suppose the global south sees Russia as a greater threat than the Empire of Chaos and Financial Ruin? Your disinformation is weak old man.
Yes, the time is coming when Russia’s silent partners will declare… The empire’s Great Russian Oil Price Cap will help sort them out. Attacking Iran will certainly speed the process. What does KSA and OPEC+ think about the empire’s scheme — how long until it’s applied to them?
And, as far as making things happen? Every day, Russia destroys more Ukrainian men and material. Irreplaceable losses of blood and treasure. Biden still whispers lets you and Russia fight in Zelensky’s ear, but the Pentagon says out loud there will be no cavalry. Americans won’t bleed for Ukraine, but Wall Street is making a killing.
Meanwhile, Russia is depleting US and NATO weapons, munitions and material.
I think pressure is mounting on RF to either make things happen or lose support in the global south and even see this support start tilting towards Ukraine. — Oddo
I know a good eye doctor…
PS: Yes, the winter offensive has been oversold. But not by Russia.
“Justin’s account of the casualties inflicted on his unit corroborates the daily briefings by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Some Western analysts have insisted that the Russians are lying or exaggerating.”
Even a cursory reading of Russia’s daily briefings will show they do not attempt to give overall figures for UkR KIA’s each day. Instead, they report UKR KIA’s for only most significant actions that day, with qualifiers such as “up to” or “more than” or “at least”. There are undoubtedly many other casualties in other smaller combat actions and artillery and air attacks all along and behind the front that are not included.
Yesterday for example:
Donetsk direction: “more than” 120
South Donetsk: “more than” 50
Kupyansk: More than “50”
Krasny Liman: up to “40”
plus 11 command posts, 63 artillery firing positions and 136 manpower and equipment locations attacked by artillery and air. Presumably many of these attacks also caused casulaties, but these are usually not included in the estimates.
Nevertheless, the reports add up to almost 80,000 KIA dead. Take the “more than” and “at least” reports at face value, discount the “up to” reports by any factor you like, but then add a factor for unreported casualties, 80,000 is as good an estimate as any.
The Soviets and now the Russians keep copious records of the combat activities. Eventually historians will be able to review them and compare them to UKR/NATO.
RuMoD reports give considerable detail, identifying the location of the action and often the unit designation of the UKR force.
On the other hand, review of the UKR claims of Russian KIA (85,000 as of 11/21) are daily totals only with no breakdown of location or units involved. They are now claiming Russian KIA’s at a rate of 16,000 per month. Most of those reporting the UKR reports as fact, including the “some Western analysts” referred to, know they are fantasy and are effectively co-conspirators in spreading propaganda.
Only the most gullible would believe these reports. I am reminded of the sub-title of the X-Files: “I want to believe”
Given that US Congress stated that Russia came in with 82,000 troops at the beginning of the war ( Marjory Taylor Greene statement a day ago when opening investigation into Ukraine’s funding), how pray Russian losses could exceed the size of its army in Ukraine?
Theoretically, by replacing destroyed units with fresh units from Russia.
But:
UKR claimed 15,300 Russian KIA in the first 4 weeks. That is a lot of killing and requires huge artillery and airpower. As Larry and others asked, where were the photos of battlefields strewn with hundreds of Russian corpses?
More recently, Nov 9-16, UKR claims 4,910 Russians KIA even though hugely outnumbered in artillery and the Russians have air supremacy over the front lines, the Russians in defence and the UKR making local attacks at mostly only company level, few at battalion level? And 4,050 and 4,700 in the preceding two week for a three week total of 13,660. Where are the photos of hundreds of Russian KIA?
Meanwhile, we see photos of seas of Ukrainian flags over the graves of Ukrainian dead in cemetaries all across Ukraine.
If I were a betting man, I would say Russian KIA, including Russian Army, Marines, LNR/DPR, National Guard (Chechens, etc.), Wagner and any others, are very likely less than 15,000 and certainly less than 20,000.
BTW, has anyone noticed the HIMARS are quiet lately?
Russia reported 2 destroyed on 9 and 20 Nov (4 total) and two batteries “neutralised” on 14 Nov. The last HIMARS missile intercept was reported on 18 Nov
Lika, do you have a source for this ?
Thanks for the video Larry. I believe there will be negotiations before the Russian offensive! For which the US is putting pressure on Kiev far more than is noticeable. Westbank’s withdrawal has already been negotiated as Zakharova soon hinted. A political victory for Kiev to force Zelensky to negotiate. And now Russia has just given Kiev a deadline of the end of the month to negotiate!
Ukraine, on the other hand, is blackmailing the EU with millions of refugees because of attacks on its infrastructure. The typical MO of the neo-Nazi wing. Which was inevitably the end of the EU. And I continue to believe that it will be difficult for NATO and the EU to resist this conflict. Germany just wants to regularize relations with Russia and China as soon as possible. As much as the Govt coalition’s internal wars don’t let it show.
The SPD is fed up with the Greens and the only reason there are no elections tomorrow is because the management of the crisis was disastrous and the SPD fears the CDU. Which with regard to Ukraine is still closer to the warmomkers of the greens. Let’s see if we also get to violent protests in Germany. Which would define everything in Europe and the EU. With Brussels enraged with Warsaw!
According to Doctorov, Brussels has a plan for 9 million more Ukrainian refugees, with no idea how to deal with. Talk of using force at borders is also rumbling.
I saw this vid earlier on bitchute. Can’t for the life of me understand the mental gymnastics that should be but aren’t happening except at a very rudimentary level in this guy’s head to rationalize his participation.
But then again, isn’t this what manufacturing consent is all about, initially targeting the mentally infirm and building your base from there?
My thinking on this idea of a negotiated settlement goes both ways.
In the first place, I think Putin has shown that he is at best a reluctant wartime President. He prefers negotiations and diplomacy. But, as others have said he has zero reason to trust Ukraine and her backers to adhere to any settlement reached thru negotiation.
Then there are the terms. He would be obliged under Russian law, to say nothing about Russian public sentiment, to insist that Ukraine at a minimum withdraw all her forces from Russia. And it’s important to remember that the four former oblasts of Ukraine are now Russian, at least in Russian law and in Russian eyes. I think additional terms would include the removal of Ukrainian forces from Nikopol and that Odessa be neutralised.
Possible? Anything is possible.
Probable? No.
Larry, thanks for another excellent piece.
I do not think the solution Russia is looking for is to pacify or defeat Ukraine quickly. The goal is much bigger. It is to defeat the unipolar world order, to end the hegemony with the US empire of 800+ bases in foreign countries, its international legal and financial arrangements structured to give it a perpetual and everlasting advantage over everyone else, and the network of predatory multinational corporations strangling local businesses everywhere in the world.
I think this will be long and drawn out, and buys time for BRIC+ countries like China, India, and also other countries in the Global South to become stronger and find their own voice again.
As the Ukrainian conflict continues, Western Europe is being de-industrialised, NATO castrated and turned into a eunuch, while the US is bled by its own elites and becomes a third world country – truly the new “Mexico”.
Meanwhile the Russian economy continues to become stronger and more self-sufficient, with stronger ties with an increasing number of non-aligned nations.
Why would Putin or the Kremlin want this to stop?
Dear Mr. Johnson,
I would like to share a short video about the Azov’s summer camp for children -if not already posted in this blog. The video is a few years old and the source is Western MSM:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jiBXmbkwiSw
Thanks for reading and publishing!
As another pointed out, 4-5 years on since that film was made, those youngsters would be fighting — and dying — in the Donbass. If there were any justice, it would be their parents, uncles, and school teachers dying instead after messing up the kids the way they did…
An armoured assault across a wide front is unlikely before the end of Dec, probably mid Jan unless the weather turns a lot colder soon. I’ve no idea how deep the frozen layer needs to be before it can support a tank, but heavily saturated soils take a long time to freeze to any depth.
I read somewhere (on Telegram, iirc) that the lion’s share of the newly mobilized 300,000 were (re)trained as MPs (Military Police). If so, Surovikin will be working with regular army for combat roles, and all those MPs suggests that he plans to take and hold territory. As a combined arms commander, and talented strategist I expect we’ll see a 1 or 2 week war in which everything is brought to bear. From aviation, to paratroopers and airborne troops, to full-on armoured assault, to activation of sleeper cells (particularly in Odessa and Kharkov). Naturally, the artillery barrages will increase, and some not yet seen equipment will be debuted.
Armageddon it will be unless the board changes before he’s ready. And well it might. The number of moving parts on the various political fronts is increasing exponentially and all kinds of stuff could happen before the General is ready to roll.
The fact that the EU and NATO have run aground is slowly dawning on the (so-called) leadership in every European capital. They’re coming to realize that they’re in fact defenceless, and that the US couldn’t save them even if it wanted to. That it doesn’t want to, and is in fact sacrificing them to save itself is also dawning on them.
Couple that to what’s happening in the ME, with BRICS and the SCO, not to mention Africa and S. America and within Ukraine itself one can easily imagine scenarios where Operation Bagration 2.0 becomes obsolete before it starts. If not obsolete, one can just as easily see it being delayed pending a political development or modified on account of one. The Poles may suddenly surprise everyone by realizing that the US/UK’s promises of support sound a lot like 1939.
A military offensive will be hideously expensive in every dimension, and it is questionable whether Russia actually needs one to achieve its goals. Ukraine, Europe and NATO no longer have the wherewithal to challenge militarily Russia on the ground and the PR spin is shifting toward the hysterical. At home the western countries are suffering hugely, the situation is getting worse day by day and millions of Ukrainians are about to pour over the European borders. Does Putin need to do anything more than wait them out?
Cela dit comme ça suppose donc que ces gouvernements dits démocratiques sont vraiment préoccupés par le bien être de la population. Chose fausse. Ces gouvernants sont préoccupés par la conservation de leur pouvoirs, le bien être des lobbys et les réseaux qui les ont fait “élire”. Le reste c’est de la communication. Comme le sourire de Biden devant Xi Inping….c’est pour la caméra….
So far 50% of the Ukrainian electricity grid is still working, so Russia’s recent bombing campaign hasn’t been the best. Plus most of the bridges in Ukraine are still standing there unmolested. So while the correct approach for Russia to do now would be a large scale counter offensive, the Russians might just relax, bottle of vodka in hand, and let the drones create as much havoc on the NATO irregulars in Ukraine as possible, with the Russians only advancing when the Ukies in front of them have been almost totally depleted. One can never tell what these Russians want to do, they might just retreat again just for the heck of it.
“So far 50% of the Ukrainian electricity grid is still working,”
That was what was admitted to yesterday.
Per Intel Slava, as of today:
* Moldova & Transnistria have no electricity. Multiple other regions & cities have no electricity. Odessa “not working”
* Southern Ukranian NPP is now partly shut down. Khmelnytsky NPP in “disorder”
*Kiev still has some electricity, but as of today, no water.
No power, no water will turn the vast majority into refugees.
Bridges can be repaired quickly. Power, not so much
Besides, the bridges will enable the refugees to get out & Russia to move in should they choose.
https://swentr.site/russia/567044-massive-strikes-ukraine/
RT : 23 Nov, 2022 13:13
Wave of massive air strikes reported in Ukraine
There’ve been emergency power outages in all regions of the country, according to national operator Ukrenergo .
When Kiev tried to mobilize forces to fight in the Donbas against the breakaway oblasts….. no one showed up and Kiev looked into irregular formations who where keen to kill Russians…these formations where integrated in the national forces but also spread throughout most governmental institutions . …. They are very prevalent in Western Ukraine so I suspect the overall numbers with the overall same ideology is much higher than we suspect in the West. Just as American Muslims from Dearborn Michigan where sent to fight with ISIL by the CIA….white nationalist and skinheads where infiltrated and utilized to fight in Ukraine….and from all over Western Europe. This young guy.. probably served with a service battalion in Afghanistan…who should know runic alphabet is Norse and not Slavic …is a skinhead… “listening to his music”… probably screwdriver as he made his way to the Azov…..saw a dead Russian soldier being eaten by dogs between Liv and Kiev? CNN was in Vietnam war after only coming into existence in 1980? After seeing what the Russians did to civilians in Bucha? He lost me there….oh and when he said Russian naval infantry was actually a peer force adversary to his rockstar unit…that lost me too. But he did confirm the fact it’s common knowledge that Ukrainian forces don’t recover their own dead and the Russian artillery is very intense and accurate hence the decimated Ukrainian forces. Interesting to note….. Western ex military combat arms types are being offered 400,000 USD for a 6 month deployment. That is some serious incentive but it’s telling in a way….must be dangerous place. Historically Russia has been slow to fight….I think it’s because of the historical strategy of trading time for space because of the geographic vastness of the country. But when they do…..they really do. I suspect the national patience has run out and we will see an outright overwhelming all out offensive operations much sooner than later
A note about ISIS, Westerners have no idea the breadth of material ISIS has provided for ME comedians. ISIS members are usually portrait as very poor people.
I think your comment about Western Ukraine is accurate and that leads me to believe the Russians will take Western Eukraine, push the Nazis into Poland then split it off to neighbors with historical land claims.
What no one has answered is if de-Nazification is one of the main goals of the Russian SMO, then why was the Ukraine not de-Nazified during and after World War II?
Stalin killed millions of Russians, including Ukrainians when the Ukraine was part of Russia. Stalin killed anywhere between 6-million and 20-million of his own people during the “purges.” Anybody Stalin saw as a threat was killed during his reign. Why didn’t he cleanout the Nazis in the Ukraine?
I think we need to show some care in using words like “bigot” in describing anybody, including Ukrainian Nazis.
“Let me state up front that there are many brave, courageous Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their nation. Unfortunately, many of these soldiers are irredeemable bigots.”
Yeah. I know. “Nazis. I hate those guys.” [sarcasm]
I have no dog in this hunt. History says, one of the reasons Adolf Hitler came to power was because of the Versailles Treaty, which inflicted odious reparations (which could never be paid back), upon the Germans for their part in World War I. War reparations helped push Germany’s economy over the edge, into a financial crisis during the Weimar Republic, which brought Hitler to power.
“No amount of rewriting history can erase the bloody legacy Hitler carved into the land and peoples of Europe during the Second World War.”
That depends. Who’s legacy was World War II? Not Hitler’s. It was the West’s. To the victors goes the legacy.
All the Nazis were saying during World War II was: “We’re not going to live by your (the West’s), rules anymore.” Who doesn’t live for the day they can stand up and turn their tormentors and enemies to ashes?
Germany had no friends after World War I. Germany had even fewer friends after World War II. Germany has basically been a ward of the state (the United States), since 1945. Still, you have to wonder how we got this point.
You don’t blow up $20-billion in civilian infrastructure without some fallout. The United States blowing up of Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines was an act of terrorism at the very least; an act of war if you really care to face the facts. Is this how you treat your friends and allies? Again, and for the record, let me say: Germany has no friends. Now we will see when Germany wakes up to this fact. Germany has no friends.
So, what’s the United States’ foreign policy now? Don’t have a war. Just a proxy one. Have another “Versailles Treaty” without anybody having signed anything. And violate that one, too? Who’s your Nazi now?
So, we go from the Versailles Treaty which caused World War II, which brought Adolf Hitler to power, to acts of terrorism and war against Europe and Germany by the United States.
Make no mistake: the United States has had their filthy finger in the pie of all of this.
Speaking of pie. The United States (including Europe, the UK, and the west) has really just picked up where Germany left off after 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as sub-human, unworthy of respect, dignity, sovereignty, equal footing as a world power on the world stage. This whole mess in the Ukraine was the United States violating stated treaty agreements and refusing to listen to Russia’s protests about against moving NATO military forces ever closer to Russia’s borders. Can’t be a global hegemon without endless war and endless warmongering.
Putin even asked former President Bill Clinton if Russia could join NATO. Clinton said “No,” of course. The Hegemon must have its enemy.
It was a bad idea to be a “chink” at any time in US history. Being a “Jap” in World War II didn’t work out very well for the Japanese. Being German in World War I, and World War II was really bad news for Germans. My personal favorite is “those Limey Brit Basterds.” But that’s just me. [sarcasm]
I suppose saying: “Nazis. I hate those guys,” is better than saying: “Germans. I hate those guys.” But I don’t know why. The United States does it with everybody all the time.
Who’s your “bigot” now?
Well, the fact that Stalin didn’t manage to denazifi Ukraine perhaps gives you a little clue about the accuracy of those “Stalin killed everyone who opposed him” claims.
Read some history and find out. For UA’s Nazis, WW2 continued in W. Ukraine until the mid-’50s. Some say it didn’t really end until 1959. They kept on fighting, mostly in the form of atrocities and sabotage financed by the large Ukrainian diaspora. It was one of the newly formed CIA’s first projects, run out of its Munich station.
It went underground when Soviet counter-insurgency agents caught up with its leadership, but the CIA and the diaspora sustained a core group through Soviet times. When the USSR collapsed, the money came flooding back in and the CIA jumped back in the saddle.
“Read some history and find out.” KMA Show some respect. The adults are present.
“Some say it didn’t really end until 1959.” Ummm. You just unanswered the question. Try again. I don’t know where you get your history from.
The Munich Station. Pure myth. More propaganda. This was another time when the United States government knew exactly what was going on, and how many people were dying under Stalinist rule. By 1945, the US had had plenty of experience looking the other way with German concentration camps.
During World War II. Post war. It was all “Soviet times.”
In Paris, Meyssan also admitted being surprised at Ukraine’s extremists, then dug up some serious files for us all :
Who are the Ukrainian integral nationalists ?
https://www.voltairenet.org/article218395.html
I still remember Demanjuk’s trial in Germany (2011) …
https://thesaker.is/why-2019-ukraine-imports-terrorists-and-exports-terror-1933-1991/
http://thesaker.is/why-2019-ukraine-imports-terrorists-and-exports-terror-1992-2019/
links in articles, easily verified history.
blame guy.
You need to stay off google and stop believing anglo sources.
If you use “fruit of their labor” to pass jugdement(aka u are not Christian), who left behind the better legacyStalin or the idiots that came after and ruined Soviet?
And with a good browser you auto translate Russian archives, the truth is far from ur fantasies.
And i will not help you find any source, they are easily found and 95% of the neutral sources end with .ru or .ws only a few end with .com or .org.
blamey guy.
“Memoirist. For forty years of searching, not a single mass grave of those executed during the “Stalinist terror” has been found! The long-standing propaganda of the slanderous myth of “Stalinist terror” was able to change the consciousness of the nation and lead it to disaster.”
https://cont.ws/@mastodont/2424577
use yandex translate or deepl to read, you are so misinformed and spout such nonsense i could not help myself and answered you.
So now let us see ur evidence that opposes my article, no anglo propaganda please use verified historical facts only.
“The Munich Station. Pure myth. More propaganda.”
Primary source:
https://www.alamy.com/funeral-of-the-ukrainian-nationalist-politician-stepan-bandera-who-was-killed-on-the-15th-of-october-1959-by-kgb-agents-in-front-of-his-apartment-in-munich-bandera-had-fled-into-exile-because-he-was-sentenced-to-death-in-absentia-by-the-soviet-union-bandera-was-a-controversial-figure-during-the-second-world-war-and-was-accused-of-collaborating-with-nazis-massacre-and-anti-soviet-actions-the-picture-shows-the-graveyard-filled-with-mourners-in-the-foreground-the-coffin-is-being-lowered-in-the-grave-image328470721.html
Indeed so, but it seems a number of people have chimed in to point you in the right direction during my absence.
“Germany had no friends after World War I …”
Well, the USA was a very good friend: please check the trade treaty of 1923 …
And the German-Polish treaty of 1934 … and the Anglo-German treaty of 1935 …
… and USA again: Dawes Plan of 1924 …
“Germany had even fewer friends after World War II …”
Again the USA: please check the Marshall Plan …
“War reparations (‘because of the Versailles Treaty’) helped push Germany’s economy over the edge, into a financial crisis during the Weimar Republic, which brought Hitler to power …”
Not Versailles, but rather the crash of 1929 …
“What no one has answered is if de-Nazification is one of the main goals of the Russian SMO, then why was the Ukraine not de-Nazified during and after World War II?”
Not me, by wikipedia can, at least telling part of the truth:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Insurgent_Army
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Shukhevych
The second part of the truth is that many of the fascist managed to escape:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trawniki_men#End_and_post-war
Agree 100%!
I posted something similar. But my post is awaiting moderation. There were no swear words in what I wrote. No hatred. Just a different interpretation where I disagree with laying all the blame and all the villainy on Germany and Hitler.
What most here don’t seem to understand is that they have been brought up in a postwar world that was heavily propagandized. They sop up the propaganda, regurgitate it, and because they are running with the herd, they think they are correct. The miracle of mass media in the 20th century! (Mostly in unbiased Jewish hands, cough, cough)
“It is much easier to fool someone that to convince them they were fooled.”
Mark Twain
You’re right but you discredit yourself by blaming it on Them. It’s not Them, it’s It.
Delusion is strong. I agree that Justin is a sort of victim. What awaits the West that has not tasted of war? The real crimes are in the hearts of people who know better and disregard life and human misery. People like Zelensky, Biden, Nuland, Bill and Hillary, and countless others that manipulate and destroy. They are arsonists that that have perfected the skill of murder.
What a tragedy that so many have died in this and in “police actions” and wars gone by.
There has been much cannon fodder. How many people in Ukraine know the real story.
Maybe they will when the US “saves their democracy.”
Larry wrote: …Ukrainian units. They are relying solely on ground forces and vehicles and those are no match for heavy artillery, rockets, missiles and aerial strafing.
Isn’t this an earlier description of the Taliban with their ground forces.
Will Ukraine become the new Germany and is split into two Ukraines, East and West? Or, is Putin going to wipe it off the map by gifting it as pieces to its neighbors and chasing the Nazis into Poland? Welcome to the European continent of perpetual tribal feudalism.
There is a significant difference between the Afghanistan war & this one.
Since Vietnam the US depends almost completely on distance weapons. It is unable & unwilling to fight a real ground war.
This is a ground war, with the stand off weapons used in the traditional way — 1st to soften & weaken the enemy, then to provide cover while sending in the troops to finish the job.
Iow, the US fights half-assed, not full bore. They quit before honestly winning.
Russia will finish the job; it has to since they’re next door neighbors. Also, because they’re Russia, not the US.
As to the dubious comparison of Ukraine and Vietnam, left out: quite unlike Vietnam era US, Russia is fighting out of its own backyard. This is not a Vietnam from Russia. It would be a Vietnam for the West.
Boy Kid, you got so lucky, it’s almost unbelievable. But the amount of stories that come out of War usually are. I knew quite a number of Ukie military guys here in Crimea during years leading up to the Maidan. Good guys, terribly underpaid, no weapons, no solid airforce, but kept a good attitude. When the Russian military showed up in order to takeover the base , half of them stayed here and the others went back to Ukraine. I have that feeling that things didn’t go well. The old Ukrainian base commander, was shot down over snake Is. I read ……..We all have war stories , those of us that went, and time heals those memories. oodacCrimeahee
Just a thought on calling these guys Nazis. Most sheep in the west will never see these guys as Nazis. We have all been conditioned in the belief that Nazis go after Jews. No one really gets it or cares. The tribe will only care when this rabid dog (Banderites) turns on the handlers. Then everyone will see Nazis.
The first one to see jails and ropes where not the jews ; it was the Reds. In every fascist regime ever ; the reds dies first. This is a good way to see at what level of fascism your actual country is , if the red are politely listened , mocked or cancelled is a good barometer to foresee the level of fascism of a country.
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_…
In 30’s fascism, communism and Judaism were also tightly linked. “Judeo-Bolshevism” was super common because communism was supposedly a Jewish plot. It is true that a lot of early communists were Jewish of course but that’s correlation rather than causation.
Interesting that Jews get blamed for the crimes of Capital and for trying to organize the world against it…
The uncanny similarity of Ukraine and Afghanistan is in the money trail.
Back then a CIA Bank, BCCI in Geneva Switzerland, funneled $25 billion to Muhajadeen, to provoke a USSR invasion, and imploded spectacularly, controlled demolition.
Today the spectacular implosion of the Crypto-ponzi scam FTX, is BCCI on steroids :
FTX on Steroids: Is “Tether” the Biden World’s Crypto BCCI?
https://www.revolver.news/2022/11/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-on-steroids-is-cryptocurrency-tether-joe-biden-crypto-bcci/
Hey Bitcoin believers, ye have been Tethered!
Thanks for this. The hidden hands of those who have the money power have always been behind wars. some Rothschild: “I care not who wins or loses this war, I make money” Until this mortal vale is cleansed of that tribe who curse us with their ancient Babylonian woe, mankind will continue to suffer worshiping their golden calf. So weird that the one time a nation attempted to throw off those chains, the leader of that country has replaced Satan as the ultimate evil in our secular worship of the almighty shekel. Jesus wept. On the cross where he was crucified by that very tribe. hmmm.
Do you blame the Jews for capitalism, communism, killing Christ and the limpness of your d*ick?
Surovikin said his intent was to grind the Ukronazi military down. Not sure it would be a massive offensive.
Yep. Protecting lives of his soldiers, and grinding the enemy. People in the west just don’t pay attention. Putin has been warning them for decades, and now everyone is shocked by the events.
Il faut e dire : “Volodymyr” envoie ses troupes à la BOUCHERIE (pourquoi les Russes prendraient-ils des gants avec eux ?) tandis que Vladimir, pour la PREMIERE FOIS dans l’Histoire de la Russie, est ECONOME au MAXIMUM du sang de ses soldats !!! Une constatation, toutefois : les Russes auraient dû procéder dès le début à la DESTRUCTION SYSTEMATIQUE du potentiel industriel et économique de l’Ukraine …
“… les Russes auraient dû procéder dès le début à la DESTRUCTION SYSTEMATIQUE du potentiel industriel et économique de l’Ukraine …”
(!!! … ???)
D’après Wikipédia:
“Avec Makiivka, qui est à la sortie de Donetsk, c’est la première agglomération industrielle d’Ukraine et son poumon économique …”
Je suis étonnée de lire votre commentaire …
Dans un pays , tout est privatisable. Les ressources, les infrastructures, l’industrie, l’agriculture, les services. Au final ça fait toujours de l’oseille les pégus.
Il y avait une pancarte “Yard Sales” sur l’Ukraine … y en a qui ont acheté. Et alors ? Et alors ils ont eut un prôblême ^^
“the United States has not experienced a peer to peer war since Korea”.
Larry don’t Ia Drang (1965) Dak To (1967) or Hamburger Hill (1969) count?
I shall add all three battles were blood baths for American troops.
“I think care should be exercised when using words like “many”.
The size of the Azov battalion is a few thousand at best. There are others – ‘right sector’, ‘Kraken’ etc. etc. – but I think they are a small part of the overall military (assuming the VSU is 100-200,000 active soldiers right now)”
Could be just a coincidence but the other day on French TV I watched an Ukrainian soldier talking victory while driving at full speed toward “liberated” Kherson.
On the right side of his helmet you could see the insignia of the Dirlewanger division.
I think the Nazi plague has infected a much larger degree of Ukrainian society than we imagine. A case of nation-wide furunculosis?
Ukraine copies Nazi Germany in everything, including the excuses. Not every German back in the day was a Nazi, but it didn’t matter much. They all took part in “the effort”. We also had stuff like “I was just following orders”, or “we were just defending Europe from evil USSR/Stalin”. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Bandera’s birthday is in a month and a half. I wonder if there will be a celebration with fireworks.
Thanks again Larry…
I immediately commented at the start of watching Justin’s video, “He chose the Nazi side, mistake #1″…
Did not have to watch long to realize I of course jumped the gun…
He didn’t choose Azov, they chose him, like a chickenhawk.
He went there with nothing but misplaced emotion and an unhealthy loop of the U.S.A. chant playing in his head.
He is close to breaking down in tears multiple times already, hope he gets the help he needs.
I have a son his age, and this shows exactly why we need to stay so far away from this as possible. Kind of doubt we will though.
I disagree with the claim that there are Ukrainian soldiers fighting for their nation. Since 2014 Ukraine is not a country but a private company. Those soldiers don’t even own the ground they are standing on, Monsanto does.
When leaders of a country suggest that its people consider traveling elsewhere for the winter, the populace will eventually realize that the game is up. Especially since they have no fuel to fill the tanks of their cars. (and not much to fill their tanks)
The question I have is about the mood of the citizenry. When we get news here in the US we see happy “locals” being liberated in Kherson. I’m not buying it. At some point those who can will flee to the west. The rest will hunker down. As things deteriorate in Kiev and Lvov and the local gendarmes are sent to the front, there will be disorder. Food riots, power riots, heat and water riots. That’s just how war works. The day the British and US special forces stop protecting Zelenskyy he’d best be packed and on a plane to Miami.
I’d say that how well the Russians do in occupying the territory it wants will go far to how far the people of eastern Ukraine embrace it. I believe that the actual Nazis in that territory have already made plans to get out.
Larry,
75 years of published and Hollywood propaganda has taken its toll on your world view. Many commenters on your site tend to down play the crimes of Stalin. Yet Stalin was a much bigger scoundrel than Hitler ever was. Hitler is not the one who instituted the bombing of civilian populations. That was Britain. Forced labor camps only occurred in Germany after the war began. The gulags were present in the USSR from the get go. The carnage that occurred on the Eastern front is the results of partisan wars that are always nasty and brutish as each side seeks to out do the other. Also much of what we know about the Eastern front is fron Soviet sources which are highly unreliable. One obvious example is the Katyn massacre, which was blamed on Germany in the Nuremberg Trials but is now known to be a Soviet NKVD operation.
When one side is routinely vilified and the other side praised, one gets a very distorted view of history. Just look at how Putin is currently viewed in the West.
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/why-do-americans-hate-putin/
A totally false picture but people believe because of the propaganda. Likewise with Hitler. I’m not saying Hitler was a humanitarian, but to call him out as the supreme example of evil is ridiculous. Here is Ron Unz’s take on it,
https://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-putin-as-hitler/
If the history you know is highly distorted, the lessons you’ll draw from it will be wrong.
Peace 🕊
Dude,
You are barking up the wrong tree with this bullshit. Yeah, Hitler loved dogs and pure blood German children. Sure, Great Guy? What the fuck is wrong with you?
I also often ask myself how it was possible to reach a point where even the glorification of Nazism and the Holocaust no longer condemns?!?!? And the only answer I can find is that there has been too much cheating!
I did not excpect to see a Nazi apologist on this site. How naive of me. I wonder what your ancestors did in mid 20th century.
The first concentration camps, complete with disease and starvation, were instituted by the English in the Boer War. Hitler may not have been the most brutal mass murderer in history, but as far as I can tell his only known real competitor was Timur (the Lame) who left towns of skulls behind him, or perhaps Chingis Khan, who was (I think, though I should check) also not shy of mass murder.
Germans are amateurs compared their Anglo-Saxon brothers. British Empire did continent wide genocides and completely got away with it (if you don’t believe me ask native Americans and Australians). Germans tried the same thing, but it turned out that native East Europeans were not armed with bows and arrows but tanks and Katyushas.
Your last name sounds Irish. I know nothing about Irish history, but I’m sure it’s full of horrible things done by Anglo-Saxons.
You sir are a fool . You have no knowledge of history. You are are deluded but worse you spread histoc rical bollocks hoping to infect others with your xenophobia. From where does your inferiority complex regarding Britain originate? Gosh you are are your very own little flower pot of lies. Pathetic.
I am a Slav from Eastern Europe. You can be sure my history books were devoid of royal bullshit you were fed as “history”. Slavs never considered themselves inferior, nor anyone else for that matter, but we always had dislike for self centered pricks like the ones you proudly declare to be.
Thank you fine sir for proving my point by showing your potty mouth in full extent. Your automatic projection of “inferiority complex”, and labeling of others as subhuman, encapsulate what being British is all about.
He’s right.
First concentration camps were British. The British, Germans, Spanish and French have killed,enslaved and ruined lives of more human beings than anyone else on Earth.
Europe has killed mega multitudes more humans than any other continent. Something like 99% more.
100mn dead in two world wars alone
Millions killed and enslaved during colonialism and crusades
Millions dead in American British French wars of terror, still dying
Anglo countries, Western Europe are the most brutal killers and destroyers of other humans and the planet since time immemorial. And nothing is changing.
It’s nothing to do with colour. It’s culture. See Obama,Powell, Harris, Lloyd, Sunak. Something very sick lies at the heart of Western European culture.
So a bunch of that is untrue. Let’s start with the fact that most of what we knew about the eastern front (including calling it that) came from German sources. That wasn’t rectified until the 90’s with Glanz’s work.
German concentration camps started prior to the war. The Holocaust, wasn’t until during the war because it was the “final solution”. That is Germany had tried other solutions to rid its europe of Jews including sending them abroad.
The GULAG is tougher to sort out, but it was an adoption of historical Russian practice of labor camps and exile. Most of the population in the camps was never pure political prisoners but common criminals. Though very true that crimes against the state which could send people to a camp were often petty crimes like theft but since everything was state property it was a state crime. They were absolutely brutal, but the point was labor not death. The early camps had production quotas so the NKVD needed to keep people alive.
And beyond all that, the historical record is clear that the Soviets tried to get the west to fight Hitler early on and the west refused. The partition of Poland was the fall back soviet position. Given the friends in high places Nazis had in DC, NY and London, it’s no surprise the Soviets didn’t get that early alliance. None of this excuses Stalin or things the soviet state did. He was a bastard. But what you’re putting forward is Nazi apologia.
I think that Putin has no more hope of a negotiation with Ukraine or with its western lords. He is probably expecting the right moment to give the final move against Kiev regime, taking control of the entire country, destroying once for all the Ukranian resistance. We will see a lot of Ukranian servicemen migrating to west, spreading the Nazi ideology in Europe and US.
Let’s see how the population of those countries will live with the hate and disappointment of the foreigners.
There is so much insight to be gained from that interview. Thanks for posting!
I have no experience in military matters, but it seems to me that Russia can sit tight and simply watch Ukraine and the EU/NATO collapse.
The amount of economic pain that the Europeans have inflicted upon themselves by being Uncle Sam’s sock puppets spells total economic disaster, which inevitably will spur social unrest and certainly an end to their ability (and willingness) to support Ukraine. God only knows what Europe will look like when all is said and done, but it won’t be pretty.
The U.S. may have eliminated Europe as an economic competitor, but that seems very short sighted (like everything else the neocon morons who run the country do).
It’s pretty clear that the U.S. does not want a direct military confrontation with Russia, so when it runs out of cannon fodder and $ to fund this war, it’s over. It’s not like our own economy isn’t going to continue deteriorating, while the global south enjoys cheap energy and mutual cooperation. We’re on the road to self destruction, just a few months behind Europe. It’s not like the neocons have suddenly gotten smarter and have some secret plan to turn things around. They’ll keep doubling down on stupid, because it’s a religion to them.
Russia should just patiently hold the line in Ukraine and literally walk in to it when it flatlines. There won’t be anyone to fight other than a few isolated pockets of resistance, no doubt going hungry fast.
Europe is finished. NATO is finished. The U.S. will become a hollowed out surveillance state filled with violent crackpots of every stripe constantly at each other’s throats, while the criminals who brought it all about try to live in gated communities protected by private armies until the hungry hordes overwhelm them.
It’s like the ending of The Treasure of the Sierra Madre – the unbridled greed of the few, which has given us the murderous paranoia of the military-surveillance state, winds up destroying us and all the gold dust blows away in the wind.
Maybe then we’ll find some simple humanity.
Your lack of experience in military matters makes it easier for you to see the big picture. Those armchair generals lost in tactical nonsense can’t see the forest for all the trees (does anyone remember Snake Island or Krasny Liman). This is not a blitzkrieg, but a war of attrition. The shit has just begun, and Russia won’t be running out of missiles any time soon.
Yep , sitz krieg it is. Slow Motion Operation. Since the retreat of the initial blitz, the Russian have conducted “a police operation” against the AFU. Outnumbered but overarmed. Now the AFU is more NATO than AFU , the game changed.
The scale of it also with the world going politically FUBAR. Trades wars , pipelines mysteriously blowing (where is the Scooby-gang when you need them ?), market warfare , cyber warfare … and lots of other warfare. What a hard time to live in !
I completely agree with everything but the last sentence. Probably because I stem from Yugoslavia, and current times aren’t as hard as some I’ve be unlucky to experience.
Além do link: https://www.csis.org/analysis/end-beginning-ukraine, faço questão de chamar a atenção para o texto recente de um warmonger straussiano completamente desesperado com a possibilidade de negociações. Para comentar alguns pontos num comentário mais à frente ou mesmo na resposta ao texto;
O Fim do Começo na Ucrânia
Um roteiro para suporte sustentado
17 de novembro de 2022
Após a Segunda Batalha de El Alamein em 1942, na qual as forças britânicas lideradas por Bernard Montgomery derrotaram as forças alemãs de Erwin Rommel no Egito, Winston Churchill observou : “Agora, isso não é o fim. Não é nem o começo do fim. Mas é, talvez, o fim do começo.” Os comentários de Churchill são relevantes para a recente retomada de Kherson pela Ucrânia e os EUA precisam se preparar para um conflito prolongado. Em 14 de novembro, a violência se espalhou para a Polônia quando a Ucrânia disparou acidentalmente pelo menos um míssil terra-ar SA-10 de um sistema de mísseis S-300, matando duas pessoas, depois que a Rússia disparou aproximadamente 100 mísseis contra a infraestrutura civil ucraniana.
Até agora, as unidades ucranianas reconquistaram vários milhares de quilômetros quadrados de território em Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk e Kherson Oblasts. Ao longo de sua ofensiva, as forças ucranianas conduziram impressionantes operações de armas combinadas, inovação militar e táticas de negação e engano. As forças russas têm sido muito menos impressionantes. Apesar da tentativa do presidente Vladimir Putin de dar uma guinada positiva na guerra e conduzir uma mobilização militar parcial e anexação do território ucraniano, a Rússia sofreu perdas crescentes no campo de batalha. As unidades terrestres russas sofreramde moral baixa, má execução de armas combinadas, treinamento abaixo da média, logística deficiente, corrupção e até embriaguez. Para piorar as coisas para Moscou, há uma crescente oposição doméstica à mobilização parcial do presidente Putin e uma economia em frangalhos após as sanções dos EUA e de outros países ocidentais.
No entanto, há apelos crescentes de alguns líderes estrangeiros para que o presidente ucraniano, Volodymyr Zelensky, acabe com a guerra por meio de negociações de paz. Como o presidente Zelensky disse a um visitante ocidental , ele estava sob crescente pressão de algumas autoridades ocidentais para fazer concessões e iniciar as negociações de paz. Algumas autoridades dos EUA também encorajaram Zelensky e outros líderes ucranianos a sinalizar publicamente uma abertura para negociar com a Rússia, embora tenha havido divergências entre as autoridades dos EUA .sobre se agora é o momento certo para pressionar por negociações sérias. Algumas autoridades e especialistas ocidentais temem que continuar a fornecer armas à Ucrânia – incluindo armas mais sofisticadas, como as autoridades ucranianas solicitaram – pode escalar a guerra para o território da OTAN, aumentando a probabilidade de o presidente Putin usar armas nucleares e arriscar um conflito direto entre os Estados Unidos Estados Unidos e forças russas. Como concluiu uma avaliação, os Estados Unidos precisam conduzir uma política de “ contenção calculada ” em relação à Ucrânia que limite as vendas de armas e evite uma escalada.
Mas essas preocupações são equivocadas, assim como os esforços para forçar Zelensky a negociar um acordo agora. Embora o diálogo entre Kyiv e Moscou seja importante, pressionar por um acordo agora recompensaria o presidente Putin por sua agressão militar, garantiria a anexação russa de facto ou de jure do território ucraniano por meio de poder nu e enfraqueceria a dissuasão contra futuros agressores – incluindo a China. Se este é o fim do início da guerra na Ucrânia, Kyiv ainda enfrenta um longo e difícil caminho pela frente. Agora é a hora de os Estados Unidos delinearem claramente uma política que apoie a Ucrânia, forneça armas suficientes para ajudar a Ucrânia a retomar seu próprio território, ofereça apoio econômico para conter a extorsão de energia russa e comece a reconstruir a Ucrânia e garanta maior transparência e responsabilidade de estrangeiros ajuda.
Objetivos de guerra
O principal objetivo de guerra de Kyiv é restaurar a integridade territorial da Ucrânia violada pelas forças russas e seus representantes a partir de 2014. Os Estados Unidos devem deixar claro que apóiam esse objetivo e farão todo o possível para ajudar a Ucrânia a ter sucesso. Ajudar a Ucrânia a atingir esse objetivo não é apenas porque o país foi invadido por forças russas – também traz vários outros benefícios para os Estados Unidos.
Para começar, um objetivo claro dos EUA de apoiar a soberania ucraniana pode ajudar a impedir Moscou de tentar novamente mudar as fronteiras de seus vizinhos pela força ou coerção. O enfraquecimento do exército da Rússia pelas forças ucranianas e pelo complexo industrial militar da Rússia diminuirá as ameaças aos países da OTAN na periferia da Rússia – pelo menos no futuro próximo. Isso permitirá que os Estados Unidos concentrem os escassos dólares de defesa no combate à China no Indo-Pacífico. Um enfraquecimento das forças armadas da Rússia também pode ser o choque que o corpo político da Rússia precisa para deixar a era Putin. Além disso, pode servir de alerta para outros ditadores que tentam conquistar países pela força bruta. Assegurar que a Rússia não atinja seu objetivo também ajuda a fortalecer a dissuasão na Ásia, demonstrando que o Ocidente militar, econômico e
Embora o apoio dos EUA, aliados e parceiros à defesa da Ucrânia tenha sido fundamental para fornecer ferramentas para repelir a ofensiva inicial da Rússia, os Estados Unidos ainda não declararam um objetivo político e militar claro para a guerra. O mais próximo de qualquer anúncio oficial de política do governo foram os comentários improvisados do presidente Biden na Polônia em março de 2022 de que o presidente Putin “não pode permanecer no poder”, bem como os comentários do secretário de Defesa Lloyd Austin em abril de que “queremos ver A Rússia enfraqueceu a ponto de não poder fazer o tipo de coisa que fez ao invadir a Ucrânia”.
É importante remover a ambigüidade do estado final desejado pelos Estados Unidos na Ucrânia. A máquina de relações exteriores dos Estados Unidos está no seu melhor quando está focada em uma ameaça clara e guiada por uma política clara. Também fornece um guia para outros aliados e parceiros seguirem em sua política em relação à guerra na Ucrânia. Consequentemente, os Estados Unidos devem conduzir uma combinação de medidas militares, diplomáticas, econômicas e de governança para acabar com a guerra na Ucrânia nos melhores termos para a segurança da Ucrânia e que impeçam futuras agressões.
As armas certas para a luta certa
Os Estados Unidos forneceram cerca de US$ 19 bilhões em assistência de segurança à Ucrânia entre fevereiro e novembro de 2022. No entanto, o valor total da ajuda é amplamente irrelevante se não for o tipo certo de equipamento. As necessidades da Ucrânia evoluíram de uma exigência inicial de armas defensivas de curto alcance, como os mísseis antiaéreos Javelin e Stinger, que foram úteis para conduzir operações defensivas contra o avanço das forças russas. Junto com treinamento e inteligência, a Ucrânia agora precisa de sistemas avançados para reconhecimento de longo alcance, fogos de longo alcance, operações blindadas e apoio aéreo aproximado para apoiar operações ofensivas, como drones MQ-1C, MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS ), sistemas de defesa aérea e aeronaves de combate.
Esses tipos de munições e sistemas de armas são essenciais para ajudar as forças ucranianas a conduzir operações ofensivas eficazes contra as forças russas entrincheiradas. Acima de tudo, a Ucrânia precisa de foguetes, mísseis e outras munições porque a guerra evoluiu para uma guerra de atrito em que ambos os lados estão travando uma guerra moderna, prolongada e industrial não vista desde a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Essas guerras são consumidores insaciáveis de munições, e seu uso pesado afeta sistemas de armas e plataformas. Em alguns dias, os militares russos lançaram 50.000 projéteis de artilharia contra posições militares e civis ucranianas, e os militares ucranianos freqüentemente lançaram apenas um décimo contra posições russas.
ATACMS seria útil. São mísseis terra-ar que podem ser disparados de um High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), que a Ucrânia já possui. Mas o ATACMS pode ser disparado três vezes a distância dos foguetes padrão, permitindo que as forças terrestres ucranianas se afastem da letal artilharia de longo alcance da Rússia. Tanques e veículos de combate de infantaria são essenciais para fornecer apoio de fogo e transportar infantaria para a batalha, uma vez que a guerra provavelmente continuará sendo uma guerra terrestre prolongada de atrito. Os drones MQ-1C fornecem recursos úteis de inteligência, vigilância, reconhecimento e ataque às forças ucranianas. Os militares ucranianos integraram efetivamente os drones na guerra de armas combinadas, onde foram particularmente valiosos em um ambiente contestado para melhorar a percepção do campo de batalha sem arriscar a perda de vidas.
Finalmente, a força aérea da era soviética da Ucrânia precisa de aeronaves melhores. As perdas em combate nos últimos cinco meses custaram quase quatro dúzias de aeronaves de combate de asa fixa de uma frota original de menos de 150. Com menos aeronaves disponíveis, cada avião tem que suportar mais surtidas e se desgastar mais rapidamente. Sem reabastecimento do Ocidente, a Ucrânia pode perder a capacidade de defender seu espaço aéreo e atingir as forças terrestres russas. A Força Aérea dos EUA está alienando mais de 200 A-10s, F-15s e F-16s para abrir espaço para caças de sexta geração, armas hipersônicas e outros sistemas. A Ucrânia poderia usar algumas dessas aeronaves, especialmente para missões de apoio aéreo aproximado para ajudar as forças terrestres ucranianas.
A Ucrânia precisa dessas munições e sistemas na escala apropriada. Afinal, a Rússia ainda tem vantagem sobre a Ucrânia no número de munições e na qualidade de alguns sistemas de armas, incluindo artilharia de longo alcance, aeronaves avançadas de asa fixa e capacidades navais. A ajuda militar dos EUA, aliados e parceiros até o momento tem sido excepcional e irrestrita, mas conforme a guerra muda, a ajuda fornecida também deve mudar. O valor da assistência militar dos EUA não deve ser julgado em termos de dólares totais, mas de efeitos no campo de batalha.
falsos medos
Alguns formuladores de políticas temem que armas avançadas possam trazer uma escalada ainda maior da guerra ou até mesmo forçar a Rússia a usar armas nucleares. Esses temores têm sido um fator importante na relutância dos Estados Unidos em fornecer armas convencionais avançadas. No entanto, há vários problemas com esses argumentos.
Primeiro, eles exageram as capacidades russas e ignoram o fato de que a Rússia usou praticamente todas as armas convencionais possíveis na Ucrânia e tem como alvo extensivo a população civil da Ucrânia. O esforço de guerra russo há muito está em seu nível máximo de brutalidade . Além disso, o exército russo implantou quase todas as suas unidades táticas na guerra e não tem reserva estratégica de unidades de manobra competentes para estender a guerra ao Báltico ou a qualquer outro país da OTAN. O anúncio do presidente russo Vladimir Putinem 21 de setembro de 2022, é improvável que convocar cerca de 300.000 reservistas militares gere forças competentes e prontas para o combate na Ucrânia. Os estoques de munição russos, especialmente de munições guiadas com precisão, foram esgotados a ponto de agora comprar projéteis de artilharia da Coréia do Norte e drones do Irã. Finalmente, seu sistema logístico se mostrou incapaz de suportar uma guerra; de forma alguma pode apoiar outra guerra contra a OTAN.
Em segundo lugar, esses medos exageram a probabilidade de Putin usar armas nucleares ao retratá-lo como um ator irracional. Putin certamente cometeu erros de cálculo extraordinários sobre como os ucranianos responderiam a uma invasão russa, a eficácia de seu exército e a determinação ocidental em implementar amplas sanções econômicas e fornecer ajuda militar à Ucrânia. Mas ele não foi irracional. Ele não expandiu a guerra para os países da OTAN, como alguns temiam . Ele também não conduziu operações cibernéticas debilitantes contra os Estados Unidos e outros países ocidentais, como outros temiam .
As ameaças nucleares russas contra o Ocidente por seu apoio à Ucrânia podem fazer Putin se sentir melhor, mas não são críveis, a menos que os militares da Rússia estejam dispostos a deixar Putin cometer suicídio social. Qualquer ataque nuclear planejado contra um país da OTAN não apenas enfrentaria o poderio nuclear e a capacidade de segundo ataque dos Estados Unidos, mas também as capacidades do Reino Unido e da França. Além disso, é improvável que o uso de armas nucleares no campo de batalha mude o curso da guerra. O exército russo teve um desempenho ruim no campo de batalha e suas forças lutaram com moral baixa, má execução de armas combinadas e corrupção. A força aérea russa não conseguiu alcançar a superioridade aérea e está ficando sem munições de precisão. As armas nucleares não resolverão esses problemas.
A Ucrânia não está protegida pelo guarda-chuva nuclear da OTAN e existe um risco, ainda que pequeno, de que a Rússia use armas nucleares. O objetivo da política dos EUA deve ser deixar claro para Putin e para as elites russas que qualquer uso de armas nucleares levará à ruína econômica de sua nação. Muitas das democracias liberais do mundo impuseram sanções econômicas à Rússia. Mas China, Índia e muitas nações do Oriente Médio, América Latina e África não o fizeram. A maioria dessas nações, especialmente aquelas que vivem à sombra de outras potências nucleares, concluirá que um estado nuclear atacando um estado não nuclear com armas atômicas é um precedente que mina a segurança nacional de quase todos os estados do mundo.
Antecipando a extorsão russa
A aliança que os Estados Unidos ajudaram a formar para ajudar a Ucrânia é quase tão impressionante quanto a criada pelo presidente George HW Bush diante da invasão do Kuwait por Saddam Hussein em 1991. Ao fornecer ajuda militar e econômica à Ucrânia, o apoio da aliança tem sido crítico em virar a maré da guerra para trás do próprio sangue, suor e lágrimas da Ucrânia.
No entanto, Putin pode acreditar que, ao transformar o fornecimento de energia da Rússia em uma arma, ele pode romper a aliança neste inverno e acabar com a maioria das sanções contra a Rússia. O próximo pilar da política dos Estados Unidos em relação à Ucrânia deve ser continuar fornecendo a ajuda econômica e energética necessária para evitar uma divisão da aliança devido à falta de gás na Europa. O governo dos Estados Unidos e a comunidade empresarial já tomaram medidas nesse sentido. Os Estados Unidos estão agora exportando mais de 60% de seu gás nacional liquefeito (GNL) para a Europa, acima dos 20% de um ano atrás. Atualmente, as importações de GNL dos EUA fornecem mais gás para a Europa do que o gás de gasoduto da Rússia, em um esforço que alguns rotularamo “Elevador de Gás” de Berlim. Os Estados Unidos também devem fornecer à Europa o apoio tecnológico e econômico para expandir as oportunidades de fracking e geração de eletricidade por meio de energia nuclear.
A última esperança de Putin é que a falta de energia neste inverno faça com que a aliança desmorone e pare de ajudar a Ucrânia. Ações tomadas para levar a Europa durante o inverno e sustentar a determinação de aliados e parceiros devem destruir qualquer esperança russa de se livrar de seus problemas por meio da coerção econômica. Espera-se que destruir a última esperança de sucesso de Putin acelere a compreensão das elites russas de que não pode vencer esta guerra e deve estabelecer termos justos e favoráveis para a Ucrânia.
Transparência e Boa Governança
Outro estratagema de Moscou é espalhar propaganda de que a ajuda externa foi extraviada e que funcionários ucranianos corruptos estão desviando a assistência econômica e militar. A Ucrânia tem lutado contra a corrupção, e o presidente Zelensky concorreu ao cargo criticando os políticos ucranianos por “criar um país de oportunidades – oportunidades para roubar, subornar e saquear”. Desde então, Zelensky adotou algumas medidas anticorrupção concretas , embora grandes quantidades de ajuda estrangeira despejadas na Ucrânia desde a invasão tenham aumentado a perspectiva de mais corrupção.
Os Estados Unidos podem ajudar a dissipar a propaganda russa e as preocupações com a corrupção trabalhando com o governo Zelensky para fortalecer os esforços anticorrupção com ênfase particular na contabilização da ajuda fornecida desde 24 de fevereiro de 2022. Por exemplo, a OTAN poderia criar uma “câmara de auditoria” trabalhar com o ministério da defesa ucraniano para rastrear o uso e disposição de todo o material de guerra, incluindo Stinger e outros mísseis antiaéreos portáteis. Em cooperação com a União Européia, uma câmara de auditoria semelhante deve ser criada para rastrear o status e o uso de toda ajuda econômica. As funções da câmara de auditoria da UE também podem ser estendidas para monitorar a provável ajuda externa e os processos de contratação estabelecidos para reconstruir a Ucrânia.
A mudança da maré
Quando Winston Churchill fez seu discurso em El Alamein em novembro de 1942, ainda faltavam quase três anos para o final da guerra, Churchill percebeu corretamente que a maré da guerra estava mudando. A guerra na Ucrânia, é claro, ainda não acabou. Longe disso. Mas a defesa ucraniana de Kyiv nos primeiros dias e os recentes esforços bem-sucedidos para retomar Izyum, Lyman e outras cidades das forças russas foram um golpe para o exército russo.
À luz desses desenvolvimentos, os Estados Unidos e seus parceiros ocidentais precisam estar preparados para ajudar a Ucrânia no que pode ser um conflito prolongado. Washington não pode ser intimidado pela arrogância de Putin. A guerra agora é de atrito intenso, e os militares ucranianos precisam de sistemas de armas que farão a diferença no campo de batalha para que possam continuar a contra-atacar e recuperar seu território soberano. Além da assistência militar, os Estados Unidos precisam fornecer assistência econômica e energética suficiente para neutralizar a tentativa de Putin de armar as remessas de gás e petróleo para a Europa em uma tentativa de quebrar a aliança de apoio à Ucrânia. Assim que a Rússia perceber que não pode usar a extorsão de energia para forçar os países ocidentais a acabar com seu apoio à Ucrânia, haverá poucas cartas para o Kremlin jogar.Churchill encerrou seu discurso recitando vários versos de um poema de Lord Byron, que prestava homenagem aos que tombaram em batalha. Tem relevância direta para a guerra na Ucrânia hoje:
Milhões de línguas te registram, e novamente
os lábios de Seus filhos os ecoarão e dirão:
Aqui, onde a espada das nações unidas desembainhou,
Nossos compatriotas estavam guerreando naquele dia.
E isso é muito e tudo o que não passará
A text as can be seen where all the fakes of the disinformation campaign that led and continue to justify the proxy war in Ukraine are repeated in the spirit of this warmonger who also knows zero about military operations, with the sole aim of a regime change in Moscow to allow the US to disconnect the EU and China from Russia’s natural resources. Because for the anointed Straussians it is inconceivable that the US loses its hegemony. Which has justified almost all the wars in the last 50 years with the results that are known even for the US.
It starts with the biggest lie that justifies the proxy war by the West which says that Russia has to be stopped in Ukraine or it invades the rest of Europe. Just a joke as any well informed person knows! Continue with the wonderful performance of the Ukrainian forces, most likely already with half a million casualties a day today because they managed to recover two territories abandoned by the Russian forces?! WOW! And with the poor performance of the Russian forces that had already conquered those same territories before stopping the offensive!!! With an expeditionary force that never exceeded 100,000 men in the theater of operations, i.e., less than 10% of Russia’s military potential and less than 1/4 of the Ukrainian forces, it conquered 20% of Ukraine with more than 50% of its GDP and Millions of Russians! Russia has really been doing very badly in Ukraine! There is no electricity in Moscow anymore! For which Ukraine must not be abandoned, much less pushed into negotiations by the US! According to warmonger!
But for a European like me, what is even more shocking is how someone who only demonstrates his absolute ignorance and his absolute contempt for the Europe that he barely mentions in the text, dares to ask Ukraine for new weapons that would easily spread the war all over the continent!!! Because Europe and even the world are just theaters of operation for these neocon warmongers.
And even for fellow Americans here on the blog of a great patriot like Larry, the way in which all the fakes in the text are subordinated to a Churchill soundbite – the one area where he shined as any good populist demagogue much like today’s BoJo! Churchill, the most overrated political aristocrat in the West that Stalin received with a trampoline in his office!! And he insisted on writing his own biography, lest the devil weave his posterity! So many were his crimes and his political antics! And just because of the way he didn’t hesitate to send more than a hundred Americans to their deaths on the RMS Lusitania to force the entry of the US into WWI, he only deserves any American patriot to spit on his grave!
Finally, if from an economic point of view I have pointed here to neoliberalism from the 1980s onwards as the main reason for the economic decline in the US, in favor of the great fortunes of some oligarchs who now dominate all powers in the US. From the point of view of foreign policy, the great reason for the decline of the US is precisely these Warmongers and above all because of all the ignorance of the world that they demonstrate! Very well represented by ignominious figures like Vitoria Nuland who also should never come close to power in Washington but where, unfortunately, he has been for almost 3 decades distilling hatred??!? And I ask who are today the great diplomatic and political figures of the past, knowledgeable about the part of the world about which they expressed themselves and just to cite one example, like George Keenan? Another cotton test we can all take on who drives US foreign policy and who should be is watching for example the way Doug McGregor talks about the same conflict in his latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfgF4x7TCmM
It makes all the difference that we only talk about realities we know, doesn’t it?
Errata: Sorry Larry. I needed to exchange this post for this English translation. Thanks.
In addition to the link: https://www.csis.org/analysis/end-beginning-ukraine, I would like to draw attention to the recent text of a Straussian warmonger completely desperate with the possibility of negotiations. To comment on some points in a further comment or even in the reply to the text:
The End of the Beginning in Ukraine
A Roadmap for Sustained Support
November 17, 2022
Following the Second Battle of El Alamein in 1942, in which British forces led by Bernard Montgomery defeated Erwin Rommel’s German forces in Egypt, Winston Churchill remarked, “Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” Churchill’s comments are relevant to Ukraine’s recent retaking of Kherson and the U.S. need to prepare for a protracted conflict. On November 14, violence spilled into Poland when Ukraine accidentally fired at least one SA-10 surface-to-air missile from an S-300 missile system, killing two individuals, after Russia shot approximately 100 missiles at Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
Thus far, Ukrainian units have reconquered several thousand square miles of territory in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson Oblasts. Over the course of their offensive, Ukrainian forces conducted impressive combined arms operations, military innovation, and denial and deception tactics. Russian forces have been far less impressive. Despite President Vladimir Putin’s attempt to put a positive spin on the war and to conduct a partial military mobilization and annexation of Ukrainian territory, Russia has sustained mounting losses on the battlefield. Russian ground units have suffered from low morale, poor execution of combined arms, subpar training, deficient logistics, corruption, and even drunkenness. To make matters worse for Moscow, there is mounting domestic opposition to President Putin’s partial mobilization and a sputtering economy following U.S. and other Western sanctions.
Yet there are growing calls by some foreign leaders for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to end the war through peace negotiations. As President Zelensky told one visiting Westerner, he was under rising pressure from some Western officials to make concessions and to jumpstart peace talks. Some U.S. officials have also encouraged Zelensky and other Ukrainian leaders to publicly signal an openness to negotiate with Russia, though there have been disagreements among U.S. officials about whether now is the right time to push for serious negotiations. Some Western officials and pundits worry that continuing to provide weapons to Ukraine—including more sophisticated weapons, as Ukrainian officials have requested—might escalate the war to NATO territory, increasing the likelihood that President Putin uses nuclear weapons and risking a direct conflict between the United States and Russian forces. As one assessment concluded, the United States needs to conduct a policy of “calculated restraint ” toward Ukraine that limits arms sales and avoids escalation.
But these worries are misplaced, as are efforts to force Zelensky to negotiate a deal now. While dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow is important, pushing for a settlement now would reward President Putin for his military aggression, ensure either Russian de facto or de jure annexation of Ukrainian territory through naked power, and weaken deterrence against future aggressors—including China. If this is the end of the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Kyiv still faces a long and difficult road ahead. Now is the time for the United States to clearly outline a policy that supports Ukraine, provides sufficient arms to help Ukraine retake its own territory, offers economic support to counter Russian energy extortion and start to rebuild Ukraine, and guarantees better transparency and accountability of foreign aid.
War Aims
Kyiv’s primary war aim is to restore the territorial integrity of Ukraine violated by Russian forces and their proxies beginning in 2014. The United States should make it clear that it supports this goal and will do all that is possible to help Ukraine succeed. Helping Ukraine achieve this objective is not only just because the country was invaded by Russian forces—it also has several other benefits for the United States.
To begin with, a clear U.S. goal of supporting Ukrainian sovereignty can help deter Moscow from again trying to change the borders of its neighbors by force or coercion. The weakening of Russia’s army by Ukrainian forces and Russia’s military industrial complex will decrease threats to NATO countries on Russia’s periphery—at least in the near future. This will allow the United States to concentrate scarce defense dollars on countering China in the Indo-Pacific. A weakening of Russia’s military may also be the shock that Russia’s body politic needs to move on from the Putin era. In addition, it could serve as a warning to other dictators who try to conquer countries through brute force. Ensuring that Russia does not achieve its objective also helps strengthen deterrence in Asia by demonstrating Western military, economic, and diplomatic resolve in the face of aggression.
While U.S., allied, and partner support to Ukraine’s defense has been critical in providing tools to repel Russia’s initial offensive, the United States has still not declared a clear political and military objective of the war. The closest to any official policy announcements by the administration have been the unscripted remarks by President Biden in Poland in March 2022 that President Putin “cannot remain in power,” as well as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s comments in April that “we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”
It is important to remove the ambiguity of the United States’ desired end state in Ukraine. The foreign affairs machinery of the United States is at its best when it is focused on a clear threat and guided by a clear policy. It also provides a guidepost for other allies and partners to follow in their policy toward the war in Ukraine. Consequently, the United States should conduct a combination of military, diplomatic, economic, and governance steps to end the war in Ukraine on the best terms for the security of Ukraine and that deter future aggression.
The Right Weapons for the Right Fight
The United States has provided roughly $19 billion in security assistance to Ukraine between February and November 2022. Yet the total amount of aid is largely irrelevant if it’s not the right type of equipment. Ukraine’s needs have evolved from an early requirement for short-range defensive weapons such as Javelin anti-tank and Stinger antiair missiles, which were helpful to conduct defensive operations against advancing Russian forces. Along with training and intelligence, Ukraine now needs advanced systems for long-range reconnaissance, long-range fires, armored operations, and close air support to support offensive operations, such as MQ-1C drones, MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), air defense systems, and fighter aircraft.
These types of munitions and weapons systems are essential to assisting Ukrainian forces conduct effective offensive operations against dug-in Russian forces. Above all, Ukraine needs rockets, missiles, and other munitions because the war has evolved into a grinding war of attrition in which both sides are waging a modern, protracted, and industrial war not seen since World War II. Such wars are insatiable consumers of munitions, and their heavy use takes a toll on weapons systems and platforms. On some days the Russian military has launched 50,000 artillery shells at Ukrainian military and civilian positions, and the Ukrainian military has frequently lobbed as little as a tenth as many against Russian positions.
ATACMS would be helpful. They are surface-to-air missiles that can be fired from a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which Ukraine already possesses. But ATACMS can be fired three times the distance of standard rockets, allowing Ukrainian ground forces to move further away from Russia’s deadly long-range artillery. Tanks and infantry fighting vehicles are essential to providing fire support and carrying infantry into battle, since the war will likely remain a protracted ground war of attrition. MQ-1C drones provide helpful intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and strike capabilities to Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian military has effectively integrated drones into combined arms warfare, where they have been particularly valuable in a contested environment to improve battlefield awareness without risking loss of life.
Finally, Ukraine’s Soviet-era air force needs better aircraft. Combat losses in the past five months have cost it nearly four dozen fixed-wing combat aircraft out of an original fleet of fewer than 150. With fewer aircraft available, each plane has to endure more sorties and wears down faster. Without replenishment from the West, Ukraine could lose the ability to defend its airspace and target Russian ground forces. The U.S. Air Force is divesting more than 200 A-10s, F-15s, and F-16s to make room for sixth-generation fighters, hypersonic weapons, and other systems. Ukraine could use some of these aircraft, particularly for close air support missions to aid Ukrainian ground forces.
Ukraine needs these munitions and systems at the appropriate scale. After all, Russia still has an advantage over Ukraine in the number of munitions and the quality of some weapons systems, including long-range artillery, advanced fixed-wing aircraft, and naval capabilities. U.S., allied, and partner military aid to date has been exceptional and unstinting, but as the war changes so must the aid provided. The value of U.S. military assistance should not be judged in terms of overall dollars but of effects on the battlefield.
False Fears
Some policymakers have worried that advanced weapons could bring an even greater escalation of the war or even force Russia’s hand to use nuclear weapons. These fears have been a major factor in the United States’ unwillingness to provide advanced conventional weapons. However, there are several problems with these arguments.
First, they exaggerate Russian capabilities and ignore the fact that Russia has used virtually every possible conventional weapon in Ukraine and has extensively targeted Ukraine’s civilian population. The Russian war effort has long been at its maximum level of brutality . In addition, the Russian army has deployed almost all of its tactical units in the war and has no strategic reserve of competent maneuver units to extend the war into the Baltics or any other NATO country. Russian president Vladimir Putin’s announcement on September 21, 2022, to call up roughly 300,000 military reservists is unlikely to generate competent, combat-ready forces in Ukraine. Russian ammunition stocks, especially of precision-guided munitions, have been depleted to the point that it is now buying artillery shells from North Korea and drones from Iran. Finally, its logistical system has proven incapable of supporting one war; in no way can it support another war against NATO.
Second, these fears exaggerate Putin’s likelihood of using nuclear weapons by portraying him as an irrational actor. Putin has certainly made extraordinary miscalculations about how Ukrainians would respond to a Russian invasion, the effectiveness of his army, and Western resolve in implementing broad economic sanctions and providing military aid to Ukraine. But he has not been irrational. He has not expanded the war to NATO countries, as some feared. Nor has he conducted debilitating cyber operations against the United States and other Western countries, as others worried.
Russian nuclear threats against the West for its support of Ukraine may make Putin feel better, but they are not credible unless Russia’s military is willing to let Putin commit societal suicide. Any contemplated nuclear strike against a NATO country would not only contend with the nuclear might and second-strike capability of the United States, but also capabilities of the United Kingdom and France. In addition, it is unlikely that the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield would change the course of the war. The Russian army has performed poorly on the battlefield, and its forces have struggled with low morale, poor execution of combined arms, and corruption. The Russian air force has failed to achieve air superiority and is running out of precision munitions. Nuclear weapons will not fix these problems.
Ukraine is not protected by NATO’s nuclear umbrella and there is a risk, however small, that Russia uses nuclear weapons. The goal of U.S. policy should be to make it clear to Putin and Russian elites that any use of nuclear weapons will lead to economic ruin for their nation. Many of the world’s liberal democracies have imposed economic sanctions on Russia. But China, India, and many nations of the Middle East, Latin America, and Africa have not. Most of these nations, especially those living in the shadow of other nuclear powers, will hopefully conclude that a nuclear state striking a nonnuclear state with atomic weapons is a precedent that undermines the national security of almost all of the world’s states.
Preempting Russian Extortion
The alliance that the United States has helped form to aid Ukraine is nearly as impressive as the one crafted by President George H.W. Bush in the face of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1991. By providing military and economic aid to Ukraine, alliance support has been critical in turning the tide of the war behind Ukraine’s own blood, sweat, and tears.
However, Putin may believe that by weaponizing Russia’s energy supplies, he can break up the alliance this winter and end most sanctions against Russia. The next pillar in the United States’ policy towards Ukraine should be to continue providing necessary economic and energy aid to prevent a splitting of the alliance due to a lack of gas in Europe. The U.S. government and business community has already taken steps to move in this direction. The United States is now exporting over 60 percent of its liquid national gas (LNG) to Europe, up from 20 percent a year ago. U.S. LNG imports currently provide more gas to Europe than pipeline gas from Russia in an effort some have labeled the Berlin “Gas Lift.” The United States should also provide Europe the technological and economic support to expand opportunities for fracking and generating electricity via nuclear power.
Putin’s last hope is that a lack of energy this winter will cause the alliance to fall apart and stop aiding Ukraine. Actions taken to get Europe through the winter and sustain allied and partner resolve should destroy any Russian hope of a deliverance from its problems via economic coercion. Destroying Putin’s last hope of success will hopefully speed Russian elites’ realization that it cannot win this war and must settle on terms just and favorable for Ukraine.
Transparency and Good Governance
Another ploy of Moscow is spreading propaganda that foreign aid has gone astray and that corrupt Ukrainian officials are siphoning off economic and military assistance. Ukraine has struggled with corruption, and President Zelensky ran for office criticizing Ukrainian politicians for “creating a country of opportunities—opportunities to steal, bribe and loot.” Since then, Zelensky has adopted some concrete anti-corruption measures, though large amounts of foreign aid pouring into Ukraine since the invasion has raised the prospect of further corruption.
The United States can help dispel Russian propaganda and concerns about corruption by working with the Zelensky government to strengthen anti-corruption efforts with a particular emphasis on accounting for aid provided since February 24, 2022. For example, NATO could create an “audit chamber” to work with the Ukrainian ministry of defense to track the use and disposition of all war material, including Stinger and other portable antiaircraft missiles. In cooperation with the European Union, a similar audit chamber should be created to track the status and use of all economic aid. The duties of the EU audit chamber could also be extended to monitor the likely foreign aid and contracting processes set up to rebuild Ukraine. These auditing and anti-corruption efforts can undercut Russian propaganda and reassure Western populations that their tax dollars have been spent properly and legitimately in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.
The Changing Tide
When Winston Churchill gave his El Alamein speech in November 1942, there were still nearly three years left of the war, Churchill correctly sensed that the tide of the war was turning. The war in Ukraine is, of course, not over. Far from it. But the Ukrainian defense of Kyiv in the early days and recent successful efforts to retake Izyum, Lyman, and other cities from Russian forces have been a blow to the Russian army.
In light of these developments, the United States and its Western partners need to be prepared to aid Ukraine over what could be a protracted conflict. Washington cannot be cowed by Putin’s bluster. The war is now one of grinding attrition, and the Ukrainian military needs weapon systems that will make a difference on the battlefield so it can continue to counterattack and reclaim its sovereign territory. Besides military assistance, the United States needs to provide sufficient economic and energy assistance to neutralize Putin’s attempt to weaponize gas and oil shipments to Europe in an attempt to break the alliance supporting Ukraine. Once Russia sees that it cannot use energy extortion to bludgeon Western countries into ending their support to Ukraine, there will be few cards left for the Kremlin to play. A Ukrainian military that retakes its sovereign territory, a Russian army facing defeat, and a West united behind Ukraine is the best way to end the war as soon as possible. Churchill ended his speech by reciting several lines of a poem by Lord Byron, which paid tribute to those that fell in battle. It has direct relevance to the war in Ukraine today:
Millions of tongues record thee, and anew
Their children’s lips shall echo them and say,
Here, where the sword united nations drew,
Our countrymen were warring on that day.
And this is much and all which will not pass away.
Seth Jones is not the brightest light in the tanning bed.
I agree!
No one can say with 100% certainty what Russia’s plan is (except Russian planners). For my part, time is on Russia’s side but NOT ad infinitum…I agree that best estimates are that Russia is planning a decisive move sometime soon but we’ll see. If they do not, the new phase of the Special Military Operation (SMO)should be called “WTF is going on” wherein Russia would rightfully lose support from otherwise neutral (Global South) countries and perhaps domestically.
My money is still on Russia to achieve their operational and strategic objectives in the SMO but they can f*ck it up like any military in any conflict (victory is not pre-ordained)…the American Revolutionary War is a prime historic example of an underestimated but highly motivated military prevailing against a much larger modern and better equipped military. (Thanks in part to Larry’s ancestors I’m sure)
Yep, he doesn’t sound like the sharpest tool in the shed.
The common Ukrainian soldier, the conscripted one, the ignorant one should be pitied. Thousands of them have been killed in this war of liberation for Russian Ukraine.
Your remark, Larry, that they are fighting for their nation is highly misleading, on the face of it.
What nation, one has to ask?
The nation that sprang up in 2014 (although the nazi/nationalist rot started in the 1990s – as the military oath revealed even then) was/is ruled by a dedicated ideology of ethnic hatred of Russia and Russians – in a country where Russian was, initially, then spoken by everyone. The practical effects were to make Russian speakers publicly ashamed of their own tongue and make the bureaucracy suppress anything Russian or in Russian.
But to this reality it must be added the murderous nature of the new-born, western-created regime, namely, the thousands upon thousands the new nation’s military and security services grievously abused, tortured and murdered along the way, to this very day.
Furthermore, this nation has been ruled by a gang of criminal puppets to the western oligarchical murderous mafia ever since, whose ultimate self-declared and acknowledged goal is that of using Ukraine as a battering ram against Russia – in order to destroy it and gorge on the spoils.
What nation are they serving then? What nation were serving the millions of ignorant, self-deluded, ideologically powerless German soldiers in WWII? They also fought bravely, savagely, relentlessly, hopelessly… and for a wicked nation.
Today’s Ukrainian soldiers are serving the same demonic ideology as German soldiers did all those years ago.
Pity the ignorant soldier that cannot escape his fate.
No pity to the nation ruled by a hellish ideology of hatred and murder. Now, as then, unconditional surrender.
The mundane -astrological analyses, I’m doing weekly, since end of September telling of a defensive constellation for the center. Now, at the end of this week the offensive connection with Mars is given for Mercury/intelligence and Venus/ressouces. On December 8. the proper opposition of the center/Sun with Mars is given, the first offensive constellation since months.
Further the diary of this 47th week contains a supplement concerning the current 80 years
comemoration of the operation ‘Uranus’ since November 19. 1942 at Stalingrad.
Lots of food for thought.
https://astromundanediary.blogspot.com/2022/11/reconciliation-in-meaningful-links.html
Here’s a 12 minute video of a Ukrainian kamikaze attack on a Russian position, which went as well as expected:
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1595195664455065601
Until very recently I felt sympathy for the Ukrainian regular military conscripts, but after the prisoner murder videos, no longer. It’s like expecting Soviet soldiers to feel sympathy for Wehrmacht conscripts after finding Belarusian villages where everyone was murdered by SS “anti partisan” gangs like the Dirlewanger Brigade. Technically the people committing the crimes might be different but in practice it is impossible to distinguish and separate them.
The thing is that Ukranazistan is like the Brutish Vampire’s colonies in WWI and WWII, when people who had never consented to be occupied and plundered by Perfidious Albion (including my grandmother’s uncle in WWI) were put in uniform and marched off to fight the white masters’ war. They had no choice in the matter – whatever they said – and neither do the Ukranazis.
We used to shoot at nazis.
We used to shoot at communists.
Why wouldn’t we? Nazis and communists are two sides of the same coin: collectivism. And collectivism is evil.
America (the late Constitutional Republic the United States of America (July 4th, 1776 – November 3rd, 2020)) used to be the opposite of both nazism and communism that, again, are the same thing.
Now we put the whole of our national efforts behind people that openly fly swastikas and act like nazis because they ARE nazis.
And now it looks like we are entertaining the notion of if somebody is too much or too little of a nazi to be our friend.
ukraine is a sh!tstain of a country. Small wonder the bideT crime family is making mafia dealings there. Small wonder bioweapons research forbidden in Venezuerica is carried out there just like in Wuhan with our money, in secret and who knows what else evil, corrupt, horrid and, in the end, ruinous.
I suspect the next scam-demic to follow the covidiocy could be coming out of a ukie bioweapons lab and they are going to say that a Russian missile was the culprit of the bug escaping containment.
Something smells rotting and putrid and it’s us and our current attitudes.
This zelensky dude is a whore.
The fact that somebody was born a Jew tells you very little of what he will grow up to be.
Jews are people. This may rile Jew-haters but Jews are just people. And most Jews are quite regular people. And Jews don’t “control the world” Jews just try to survive like the rest of human beings.
But like with any other . . .ethnicity, whatever you want to call it, Jews sometimes grow up to be horrible people. Not because they are Jews. Nothing to do with that. But because they are people and people sometimes grow to choose evil instead of good. I give you george soros. I give you Theodor W. Adorno, Herbert Marcuse, Max Horkheimer, Walter Benjamin, Erich Fromm, Friedrich Pollock, Leo Löwenthal, Jürgen Habermas, Alfred Schmidt, Axel Honneth, Siegfried Kracauer, Otto Kirchheimer, Georg Lukacs, Martin Heidegger and Saul Alinsky all Jews, all prominent collectivists / nazis / communists that did the world horrible harm and continue to do so. Because they were Jews? No, because they were evil. And none of them had much Jewishness in them. They were good nazis / communists with little of Jew in them.
On the OTHER hand I give you Ayn Rand, Baruch Spinoza, Albert Einstein, Amedeo Modigliani, Niels Bohr, Milton Friedman, Yehudi Menuhin, Rosalind Franklin, Jonas Salk, Albert Sabin.
The list is never ending of Jewish contributions to human civilization. It won’t take much time finding huge lists of Jews that made the world better. Much more than the opposite. And don’t get me started on the most relevant religion for Westerners and Western history that begins with a Jew nailed to an ancient instrument of torture and was the cause for some of the most horrendous crimes of Jew-hatred that history records including the Holocaust. The Holocaust started way before the nazis, with Martin Luther and even before him.
Why is my list of evil people having been born Jews longer than my list of good Jewish people? Because I have spent more time studying evil and because my time for this piece is short.
The strange thing is that most nazis being Jew-haters that doesn’t prevent some Jews from becoming nazis themselves. Check out my list of evil ones having been born Jews up there. All born Jews. All collectivists / nazis / communists.
So, back to my point: this zelensky dude is a whore. Apparently born a Jew he is now a mafioso and a nazi. The ukie nazis probably laugh at him behind his back but consider him useful so, for the time being, he struts around like the big man. This whore is a POS SOB. But not because he was born a Jew (if he was) but because of his ideas and his actions.
Venezuerica is fighting on the wrong side of this war because our government is evil and leftoxenomorph and corrupt to the core and more adept at siding with nazis and communists than with any semblance of decency.
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You might want to re-read [Q] cranked says 23 November 2022 at 04:33 [/Q] above.
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[Q] “gT says 23 November 2022 at 03:39” [/Q]
“So far 50% of the Ukrainian electricity grid is still working, so Russia’s recent bombing campaign hasn’t been the best.”
I’m not sure the objective of Russia is to destroy ukraine.
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Not enough thinking has been given to what kind of a world we would have if Russia had been made part of NATO.
What if on the ground Russians have more freedom than eurabians?
And less pisslims in their midst.
It is not Russian females that are being raped wholesale.
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The only good nazi is the dead nazi.
The only good communist is the dead communist.
America, while it existed as a Constitutional Republic (July 4th, 1776 – November 3rd, 2020) was the greatest, sanest, healthiest, most decent, free, productive, beneficial for the whole world, respectful and the most glorious country ever, by far, in the history of man.
America was the exact opposite of nazism and communism that are the same thing.
America was individualist.
Everything opposed to what America was is collectivist.
F#ck collectivists!!! And not in the good way.
I guess you missed the fascist coup on November 22, 1963.
When you start comparing communism with Nazism, you only want to normalize Nazism. This has also been the EU’s path since 2019 to normalize what was already happening in Ukraine! When he passed an infamous resolution blaming both Stalin and Hitler for WWII?! After having already legitimized the 2014 coup and its first Interim President who had already been convicted of being openly neo-Nazi in the EP. And today it no longer condemns the glorification of Nazism in the UN!! In 2021, this role only fell to the US and Ukraine! And the first question that immediately arises is why are we talking about communism today? Is Russia today trying to recreate some kind of communism? No! In fact, Russia today is a more capitalist country than the US!!!
And what they call communism was often what killed Nazism!!! What I understand to be Lenin’s interpretation of the marxim in Russia. As there were others all over the world. Even today, the most admirable thing about Marxism was the speed of its dissemination, almost 2 centuries before the internet. But happened! Communism that in Russia at best died with Stalin’s rise to power, 10 years after the Bolshevik Revolution. And I do not intend to defend the Revolution or communism. I only intend to be rigorous and I have this obligation as a professor of Economic and Social History at a University. And because I’m sick of ignorant people!! Mainly because I think that one of the main reasons for this conflict is really ignorance! Or the way Western propaganda projects this ignorance!
Stalin led a Corporate Dictatorship that no one saw portrayed in the Communist Party’s manifesto. That of communism, of course, never had anything! Much less Marxism. A one-party dictatorship. As at the time, many were tried around the world. In southern Europe there were several right-wing dictatorships based on the same corportivist and non-collectivist principles. Because analyzing Regmes, Govts and policies outside their contexts and their time usually results in monumental errors.
“When you start comparing communism with Nazism, you only want to normalize Nazism.”
Exactly. Whenever I encounter “communism basher” on the Internet, it turns out to be yet another Nazi sympatizer. They need to manufacture some greater evil, so they could be the lesser one. Choosing lesser evil is what wester democracy was always about.
Fake on which the entire Western disinformation campaign is based that justifies Ukraine’s proxy war to provoke a regime change in Moscow! It is necessary to stop the red horde in Ukraine! 75 years after WWII and more than 30 years after the end of the USSR! When Putin himself is a primary anti-Communist! And he is definitely less interested in taking over Europe than the US as we can see every day! Just lies!
FRONT_TOWARD_ENEMY: The drugs you are obviously taking are seriously warping your mind.
It’s the Zelensky powder.
I can remember a year or so before the SMO/invasion/incursion/whatever when the Belarussians were letting refugees pile up on the Polish border. What did the Belarussians hope to accomplish by this act? I believe it was to show Europe what would happen if NATO didn’t change its policy toward Russia. Symbolic threats foreshadow future events. This weekend.
I can remember the beginning of the SMO/invasion/incursion/whatever when the U.S. evacuated its embassy in Kiev and Russia sent its 40 mile/kilometer/whatever convoy of tanks/armoured vehicles/trucks/whatever down from Belarus to invade/menace/pin/whatever Kiev.
What did the U.S. want to accomplish by its act? To create the perception that Russia was going to attack Kiev. For whom was that intended? The Russians? Unlikely. The Ukrainians? Maybe. The American people? Most definitely. $$$. FTX. ‘Nuff said.
What did Russia want to accomplish by its act? To create the perception that Russia was going to attack Kiev. For whom was that intended? The Americans? Unlikely. The Ukrainians? Maybe. The people of Europe? Most definitely.
Symbolic threats foreshadow future events.
Russia has to secure its southern border before it can afford to fully engage with NATO. Taking control of the Azov was required. Taking control of Odessa is desirable, but if Moldova descends into anarchy it will be required. Ukrainian Bessarabia can serve as a buffer zone, but if encroached upon it becomes a security threat to Sevastopol and must be dealt with.
I believe Russian intelligence observed symbolic threats in these areas and that is why they withdrew south of the Dnieper. Remember the Beruit port explosion in 2020? Symbolic threats foreshadow future events.
These people always threaten each other symbolically before acting, just like the animal kingdom. That’s what to look for, the symbolic aggression that preceeds the real McCoy.
There never was a 40 mile convoy. It was originally misreported as a 65 klm long convoy of Russian military vehicles. In actual fact it was a rather long convoy, 65 klms from some landmark city (prolly Kiev, can’t remember).
Anyway the misreported 65 klm long convoy has been repeated so often it’s now accepted as true. Who was it that said “repeat a lie enough times…”?
There is no logical reason for Russia to make a large infantry-led invasion deep into western Ukraine. General Winter is moving in now to do his work. No power, no heat, no water, no food. As bad as things look today, they will be much worse in a week, more so in a month. How many Ukrainians will be in and around Kiev and Lvov in January and February is debatable. Many will flee, many will freeze to death.
It is my understanding from pro-Russian sources that there are nazis scattered throughout the Ukrainian military whose job is to shoot anyone fleeing the front lines or who try to discreetly disappear. There will be a moment this winter when the soldiers being shot by the Azovs will turn their guns on the nazis. Then it will be a footrace to the Polish border.
Unfortunately for your hypothesis the very normal Ukrainian troops who might torn their guns on the nazis are themselves being ground into the ground and mixed into the mud by Russian artillery as they conduct suicide attacks. And they’ll be replaced by (more) NATOstani regular forces disguised as “mercenaries” and “volunteers”.
Today’s missile barrage that shut the juice off across Ukraine is a taste of what’s coming. I see long posts above that attempt to repackage standard CIA/NATO propaganda asserting (for multiple bogus reasons) that Russia can’t win. These arguments have become tiresome so I’ve decided that the best answer to them is to simply let the reality on the ground speak for itself. Kiev is plunged into darkness tonight. That fact alone gives the lie to all the blather about Russian weakness, to the baloney about salvation for the Banderites through Western Wunderwaffen, to the nonsense about Zelenskyy “liberating” captured oblasts. It’s all pure shyte designed to pacify the gullible in the US and Europe.
Ukraine well exceeds US combat casualty figures for 20 years of war in the middle east EVERY MONTH
Now you know why US switched to proxy wars.
He was there and still doesn’t have a clue what the war was about. No understanding of the greater geopolitical issues. Sad.
Absolutely. That was my take away.
There are also similarities. One army has control of the air while the other has negligible air cover. One fighting factions throws a lot of people at the enemy due to lack of equipment, generating dissimilar kill ratio.
Both the Taliban and the Nazis are ideology driven.
This is one fascinating discussion for sure!
In the short run the Empire of 800 military bases, sophisticated pipeline destruction machines, and god knows how many NGOs stirring up trouble everywhere will not go quietly into that goodnight. So it’s going to be sturm und drang for many years.
In the long run the West has maneuvered itself into fighting a country that has all the food, the oil, gas, and resources the world needs, and another that could be called the Europe of Asia that manufactures everything that modern life requires, and a third which has crying needs for all the above. So the West will gradually sink into irrelevancy while taking a lot of humanity with it.
Putin unfortunately remains a corrupt man, his support for oligarchs at the price of life of his own people is raising many questions in Russia. A shame.
“Viktor Alksnis .. I do not understand the President of the Russian Federation. A war is raging in the Ukraine, and it seems like this should be the main focus of his activity. But instead of this, he is welcoming a Russian oligarch named Dmitry Mazepin, the owner of the company Ural-Khim, and discussing with him a purely commercial problem: The renovation of the ammonia pipeline Togliatti-Odessa. It seems the oligarch is suffering some financial losses. Moreover, this important meeting was broadcast on the TV channel Rossiya-24.
In the past, also in order to help out this same oligarch, Putin issued the command to withdraw troops from the Kharkov Oblast. Given that this misbegotten pipeline runs through Kharkov territory. And that the Ukrainians demanded such withdrawal as a condition for renewing [and permitting] the transit of the ammonia. As a result of this “assistance”, the Ukrainian Armed Forces advanced all the way to the state border with Russia; and now on a daily basis, and with full impunity, continue to shell the Belgorod Oblast [of the Russian Federation], killing innocent citizens of the RF while destroying residential homes and infrastructure.
Now, once again, Putin has promised to help this oligarch solve his problems. What will he give in return? Zelensky is demanding of Putin, in exchange for renovating the ammonia pipeline, an exchange of prisoners by the formula “All for all”. But here’s the thing: We have around 10,000 Ukrainian POW’s, and they have only around 500 of our guys. Is this considered an even exchange? Frankly, I am worried that Putin will agree to this deal. And not just to this. I have the impression that he is willing to do just about anything to serve the interests of the Russian oligarchs. While the deaths of the Belgorod residents, and of our soldiers and officers, seems to be of secondary importance to him.
At the very least, he needs to explain, once and for all, to the citizens of Russia, what exactly it is he intends to achieve in Ukraine, and whither he is leading the nation. Instead of meeting with an oligarch in front of the television cameras, maybe he should conduct a meeting with Minister of Defense S. Shoigu and with the Commander-in-Chief General Surovikin; they should be discussing the general situation and the course of events in Ukraine; not to mention the shelling of Belgorod. Unfortunately, I doubt that we shall see such a televised meeting, or that we will finally get to hear what the President thinks about these issues.”
Obvious troll is obvious.
I’d say political realities drive Putin’s decisions rather than “corruption”, and the reality is that even though their power has been dramatically reduced from the 1990s Russia’s Oligarch class remains a potent force.
I read a similar criticism via Texas Bailey’s Telegram channel some weeks ago regarding the reasons UA’s rail system was still running. In the following I reduced the original post to Konstantin Sivkov’s words.
America & Europe have their own Oligarch class that are as voracious and ruthless as RU’s and UA’s. How to free a country from their grip? Not a simple matter. It takes a Stalin to purge a whole, powerful class, and putting a Stalin in charge brings its own problems.
War may be weaponized politics, but politics remains the art of the possible.
These bridges are very sturdy structures, specifically engineered by the Soviets to be resiliant to being attacked. Geran cruise missiles with their 10’s of kilos of payload are far too small to do any appreciable damage, hence it’s already useless to try and use Gerans for swarm attacks. Heavy bomber aircraft dropping bombs is also a non-starter because Russia has far too few of these aircraft and because the bridges are located too deep inside Ukraine, where the Ukrainians have too much of their air defenses left. The few bombers that Russia has cannot be risked because they are needed in the event of a direct war against NATO. That’s especially true of the Tu-160, of which there are only 20 or so. The mere optics of Ukraine shooting down even one heavy bomber would also be terrible, lest several of them. The only theoretical option are heavy, jet powered (Kalibr etc.) or rocket powered (Kh-22/32) cruise missiles or rockets (Kinzhal). Alexander Mercouris has talked a lot about the Kh-22/32, but this type is primarily an air-launched, heavy anti-ship missile. There cannot be too many of them in Russias inventory. Just like the bombers, they may have to be kept in reserve in the event of a direct war against NATO. It’s also doubtful whether their ground attack capability, if any, is good enough for the purpose in the first place. These missiles have radar-based homing heads that are optimized for seeking out ships against a background of water and under conditions of decoys and chaff being in the air and electronic countermeasures being employed. Their payload is so large, and ships are so vulnerable when hit, that they do not need to hit a ship in any specific place. Just hitting the ship anywhere suffices. Even worse, these missiles have a flight profile where they approach the ship from above. That maximises the radar return from the ship and it reduces the time spent inside of the ship’s defense envelope. It is very doubtful whether this entire attack profile is suitable for hitting some bridge’s support column, as would be required. A support column is a far smaller target than a ship, especially when the ship is an aircraft carrier. It is also hidden underneath the deck of the bridge. Ruling out the Kh-22/32, we are left with jet-powered cruise missile like Kalibr and the Kinzhal. The Kinzhal is a semi-ballistic rocket, so it approaches its target from above just like the Kh-22/32. It’s hypersonic for most of its flight duraction but must surely slow down in denser atmosphere close to the target. We may still assume that it’s hypersonic as it reaches its target. It has optical guidance that is optimised for hitting ground targets, unlike the guidance on the Kh-22/32. Does that suffice for hitting a bridge’s support column instead of just penetrating the bridge deck and then detonating underneath it, even at hyersonic speed? It would surely be a very “luxurious”, hypersonic hole and a very impressive detonation but we are left to guess. All of that leaves jet-powered cruise missiles. The Russians used a dozen or so to attack a bridge close to Odessa, and this bridge was rendered unusable at least for a certain period. Jet-powered cruise missiles hence seem to be the only sure option in purely technical terms. It comes down to the number of bridges, the specifics of how each one of them is constructed, but also the air defense situation around each bridge. There can be no doubt that Ukraine is able to shoot down at least a certain proportion of all the jet-powered cruise missiles that Russia fires against it. It may be the case that Ukraine has sufficently many sufficiently resiliant bridges, and that these bridges are too easily defensible, that attacks using jet-powered cruise missiles cannot block off all the necessary routes across the Dnepr either.
Ukrainian prisoners of war will fight on Russia’s side
A battalion of Ukrainian prisoners of war has been formed in the Donetsk people’s republic, a representative of the region’s security agencies has told TASS.
“The society that separates its scholars from its warriors will have its thinking done by cowards and its fighting by fools.” — Thucydides.