If the Florida State High School championship baseball team played one game against the New York Yankees, who do you think would win? The Yankees of course. So why in the world would any sane person believe that Ukraine can or would defeat Russia in a military contest? Just look at the numbers at the start of the war in February:
Not included in this image is a comparison of the size of Naval and Air forces. At the start of the war in February, Ukraine had 112 combat aircraft. Russia, by contrast, had 1558. In other words, 14 times the size of the Ukrainian Air Force. The same for transport aircraft and helicopters. With respect to helicopters, Ukraine fielded 15 MI-8s while the Russian rotary wing fleet counted 1397. Advantage Russia by a factor of 93 times.
What about the Navy:
As of 2022, the Ukrainian navy had 15,000 personnel, including 6,000 naval infantry. . . and four surface vessels.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Navy
Russia has three main fleets–the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea and the Northern Fleet
In the Black Sea alone, Russia grossly outnumbers Ukraine’s nominal presence:
- Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate (3)
- Burevestnik (Krivak)-class frigate (2)
- Steregushchiy-class multi-role corvette (1 on sea trials in the Baltic)
- Buyan-M-class corvette (4)
- Karakurt-class corvette (1 on sea trials)
- Bykov-class corvette/offshore patrol ship (4)
- Tarantul-class corvette (4)
- Bora-class corvette (2)
- Grisha-class corvette (6)
- Kilo-class submarine (1)
- Improved Kilo-class submarine (6)
Why belabor the point? On what basis did anyone in Ukraine, the United States or NATO indulge the fantasy that Ukraine had a snowballs chance in the fiery realms of Hell of matching up with Russia?
As of today, Russia claims to have destroyed the following equipment deployed by Ukraine since February 24:
- 290 airplanes
- 152 helicopters
- 1,889 drones
- 373 anti-aircraft missile systems
- 4845 tanks
- 825 multiple rocker launchers
- 3,369 field artillery and mortars
- 5,343 special military automotve equipment
This means that Russia not only has destroyed Ukraine’s stockpiles that existed at the start of the war, but it is eliminating planes, tanks and MRLS systems subsequently provided by NATO and the United States.
Has Ukraine destroyed some Russian aircraft, helicopters, tanks and armored vehicles? Yes. But so what. Russian losses are only a minuscule fraction of their total strength and Russia, unlike Ukraine, has factories that are continuing to produce equipment and weapons lost or expended during the course of this conflict.
So with these numbers in mind, carefully consider what is happening to Ukraine’s military force in its current offensive. It is being decimated. Capturing a rural village or two or pushing the Donetsk or Luhansk militias backwards a few kilometers is tactically insignificant.
The truth of the matter is that Russia is relying on the Donbas militias to do the bulk of the front line fighting because it is home for those militias. Claims that the Russian military has suffered major casualties is delusional because the Russian forces are in the rear and providing fire support–ground and air–to the Donbas militias. Yes, there are some Russian troops on the frontlines in some places, but the cold, hard fact is that Russia has not committed a significant portion of its total military forces to the battle. Not yet, anyway.
The reality, which the United States and NATO are loathe to accept, is that Russia’s defeat of the Ukrainian military is inevitable; even if the United States or NATO made the suicidal decision to send their own forces into the fray.
If you are looking for a great summary of the military situation facing Ukraine, take time to read the recent lengthy interview with Swiss Army Colonel Jacques Baud. Here is a snippet to whet your appetite:
The aim of this book is to show how the misinformation propagated by our media has contributed to push Ukraine in the wrong direction. I wrote it under the motto “from the way we understand crises derives the way we solve them.”
By hiding many aspects of this conflict, the Western media has presented us with a caricatural and artificial image of the situation, which has resulted in the polarization of minds. This has led to a widespread mindset that makes any attempt to negotiate virtually impossible.
The one-sided and biased representation provided by mainstream media is not intended to help us solve the problem, but to promote hatred of Russia. Thus, the exclusion of disabled athletes, cats, even Russian trees from competitions, the dismissal of conductors, the de-platforming of Russian artists, such as Dostoyevsky, or even the renaming of paintings aims at excluding the Russian population from society! In France, bank accounts of individuals with Russian-sounding names were even blocked. Social networks Facebook and Twitter have systematically blocked the disclosure of Ukrainian crimes under the pretext of “hate speech” but allow the call for violence against Russians.
None of these actions had any effect on the conflict, except to stimulate hatred and violence against the Russians in our countries. This manipulation is so bad that we would rather see Ukrainians die than to seek a diplomatic solution. As Republican Senator Lindsey Graham recently said, it is a matter of letting the Ukrainians fight to the last man.
Great article. When will the Ukrainian Military completely collapse? When will Russia make it drive to and through Odessa? It seems, superficially, that the Russians and not making much progress right now – if am I wrong, please correct me.
You’re aware that Russia is conducting a major military exercise in the east with China, Vietnam, etc? Russia appears to be following Muhammed Ali’s rope a dope strategy, i.e., let Ukraine punch itself into exhaustion.
I like Gonzola Lira’s explanation. He says the Russians have decided to delay their offensive because the Ukrainians are coming to them – so they just wait and kill them off as they flock towards the waiting Russians. His point is why should Russia go on the offensive to demilitarise Ukraine when Ukraine is sending their troops to the Russians for this?
Good points, Victor. But winter and spring are coming. Spring would be very difficult because it is so muddy.
I don’t think that will bother the Russians much tbh, the operation started at the tail end of winter and the subsequent spring didn’t seem to stop them from advancing any.
We’re talking about the the nation and army that did the *vast* majority of fighting against the Axis powers in WW2 through all seasons. This ranks alongside comments I see where people think that Russia is doomed because some bridge or other got blown up; completely ignoring the fact that Russia is probably one of the best trained and equipped nations on earth at bridging and offensive operations across rivers. They train for it all of the time because of the geography in their neighbourhood
If you want to talk about more recent events, how about the fact that Russia actually launched the ‘SMO’ during the winter and spring in Ukraine?
If ‘mud’ is such an obstacle why did Russia and allied forces capture probably the majority of the terrority so far in the spring?
Just a few things to think about
I didn’t notice Russians struggle too much this spring. I don’t expect the next one to be much of a problem.
As far as fast progress is concerned. Waiting for winter is just what Russians do. For some reason, the enemy always ends up freezing into submission.
I agree. It is not in favor of Russia to rush things up. This situation is more than a military conflict, its multi-layered. We cannot know what Putin is thinking, what goals he has set and on what timetable.
Thank you, Mr Johnson, that makes sense.
Yes – it seems to me that Kherson is a deliberate trap. It looks vulnerable, on the wrong side of the river, plus would be a great victory. Kiev claims it is pro-kiev so the very idea of a Kherson referendum for independence is a fantastic trolling of Kiev.
It looks take-able but in Chess they would call it a poisoned piece.
The goal is de-nazification and de-militarisation of Ukraine. The first is hard – it really requires Kiev to take control over its own nation. That ain’t going to happen until Kiev disconnects from the US/UK puppeteers or Kiev loses control of the whole country to Russia, Poland and other interested parties.
But de-militarisation is almost over. Greatly helped by Kiev policies in the Donbas where it seems every time Ukraine loses a thousand men in trenches, instead of falling back with half or more of your men to the next trench, the strategy seems to wait till they are all dead, and then fill the trench with another 1000 poor sods.
The last thing Russia wants to do is go chasing Ukrainian troops across the Dnieper. That just leads to traps, high Russian casualties and high civilian casualties for the media to report – the first being the Ukrainian goal, and the second being Nato’s goal.
So tempting Ukraine to attack in teh South and Kherson in particular works out great for Russia.
Larry I would be careful with your analogies. Who would have thought the US would leave Vietnam or Afghanistan in defeat?
But I understand your point. Putin has been very careful about when and where he has chosen to intervene. The places Putin has intervened, all have people who are willing to risk their own lives for what they believe in and have asked the Russians for help to achieve it.
The US on the other hand, manipulates people to fight for them, for US interests, not for the people’s interests. Once those people realize they are being manipulated, support crumbles and fighting only continues as long as the US is the one paying for it. Once that support ends so does the conflict as happened in Vietnam and Afghanistan.
Larry, thank you for your informed analysis. As I continue to confront the complexities of what is going on in Ukraine (and benefiting greatly from your input), I would appreciate your response to the view that Russia’s limited intervention is mistaken. Namely that Russia continues to underestimate the West’s intention or capacity to prolong the war and occupy Russia with inconveniences on multiple fronts.
From the way things have progressed, Russia is winning this war and appears to have things well in control and even “rope-a-doping” Ukraine at present, as you put it. But there is now talk of powerful long-range weapons capable of attacking Donbass, Crimea and perhaps other parts of Russia from western Ukraine. There are also repeated attempts at negotiation with Zelensky with and an unrelenting, hateful and opportunistic enemy.
Is this Russian wrong-think or does Russia truly understand its enemy? If you have written on this, please supply the link. Thank you.
Larry, thank you for your article, SORTING OUT UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN RED HERRINGS.
One could sum up this and a great many comments thus – The West has won The Propaganda War. But you win wars by winning The Real War, thereafter the Propaganda War collapses and so goes public confidence. This slow motion US-NATO-UK Ukrainian Proxy War to weaken Russia over Ukrainian lives is lost.
Now a matter of desperation and doubling down – in the Western Centres of Planning. Examined here . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/p/great-game-ukraine-long-proxy-war
The shipping of heavier armaments to The Ukraine, under the belief of a limited or meek Russian response has the appearances of a trap, as indeed was their earlier “assault” on Kyiv an obvious feint. They made it look convincing. Tendentiously written up as a Russian loss.
One can almost see it in The Stars – those Western leaders who spoke to tipping out the Russian Government and leader will themselves be gone soon enough. The Russian leadership remains.
Judgment shall be by outcomes.
it looks like the main fight is at the economical front and at that level the winter is one of the biggest ally of the russians. so they fight slowly and pull the war thru the winter. at spring time they come smiling and see the remains of ukraine, europe, usa . . .
Russia is in no hurry… at least not now. Since Europe’s leaders want to sanction all things Russian, why hurry? Let winter do the heavy-lifting — cold weather and high gas prices will motivate the people to change their government, if their leaders refuse to change their policies. Did you miss the “Eat or Heat” signs at the protests?
NATO are supplying a conveyor belt of targets for Russian artillery. Why go through the bother of moving it, disrupting your supply chains etc when you don’t have to.
At some point during the winter a freezing Odessan population may even ask for the kiev/Nato government to leave, by one means or another.
On another point does anyone know where Ritter got his figures for the volume of shells fired in the SMO so far?
Er ikke bra at vestlig media styres av USA eller CIA for alle tror på at Russland ikke har noen våpen eller soldater å bruke. Men stemmer ikke med hva jeg har funnet og hvorfor ikke bruke TOR og ODIN å nye tanks?
Translation:
Isn’t it good that the western media is controlled by the USA or the CIA because everyone believes that Russia has no weapons or soldiers to use. But does not agree with what I have found and why not use TOR and ODIN to new tanks?
I wonder if the Russians are conducting tactical warfare derived from the creeping barrage techniques of WW1. Inching forward after their artillery has minced the opposition. In fact the Russians don’t have to conquer territory, all they have to do is stay in the east with Russian speaking people, who are sympathetic and short supply lines. The Ukrainians have to attack them. When they do, they will be minced.
We know the Ukrainian Air Force has been destroyed. Mr Z asked for a no fly zone over Ukraine. That’s their Air Force’s job, if they had one. They don’t have one or they would have attacked the column outside Kiev.
The latest nonsense for the incredulous is Russian is out of ammunition and is begging North Korea for replenishment.
That according to, an “un named sources in the United States intelligence [sic] community”
Believe that? I’d you do. Email me immediately, I have a limited time offer regarding the former Nigerian Minster of Finance. … I plan to use my share to buy this bridge in NY at a great price.
A crude (what else from US) attempt to conflate the evil DPRK, and recently evil Iran, with the evil Russians. This juvenile nonsense fools only the gullible, but then that’s all that’s needed.
The report on NK ammunition is yet another example of:
“Multiple U.S. officials acknowledged that the U.S. has used information as a weapon even when confidence in the accuracy of the information wasn’t high. Sometimes it has used low-confidence intelligence for deterrent effect, as with chemical agents, and other times, as an official put it, the U.S. is just “trying to get inside Putin’s head.””
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-using-declassified-intel-fight-info-war-russia-even-intel-isnt-rock-rcna23014
In other words, just make it up and see how far it goes
Hello Larry .So far we have only seen that the Ukrainian offensive has been a fiasco, only a few kilometers and some ghost towns recovered, however it is celebrated as a triumph while the matter is not yet concluded, the poor people of the West do not know that this war is Of existential importance to Russia, it will never retreat and if it does it will be forward. NATO is playing with fire. Greetings.
Yes, I agree.
Interesting comparison, but I wonder about the 125,000 UKR troops number. I was listening to Scott Ritter yesterday, and he was saying that UKR had a total of about 700,000 to 750,000 troops, counting their reserves, with about 200,000 active, well-trained army troops, at the start of the February invasion.
Of course, while Russia has only committed about 200,000 troops to the SMO, the Donbas militias are obviously quite sizable and have done most of the front line fighting. I have yet to see any estimates of the size of those forces, but they must be quite substantial to have uprooted the large, deeply dug-in UKR troops from their fortifications in most of the Donbas region and from the XEPCOH (Kherson) area.
The artillery did it and the rockets followed the Uki’s home.
Pathological hatred of individuals, families, communities and countries sooner or later result in destruction of those who possess such hatred.
Objects of such hatred may suffer for a while but ultimately prevail over such pathologies.
For most of 1000+ years of its existence, Russia had been the object of such hatred and prevailed many times. Looks like the final act has begun on Feb 24, 2022, with ultimate Eurasian integration and birth of Multipolar world and defeat of Neocolonialism, aka “Rules based Order”.
Here is the financial angle. Charles Nenner is in Amsterdam. https://usawatchdog.com/the-anti-dollar-is-coming-charles-nenner/
“Decimated” is a reduction of one in ten; that is, ten percent. The action of decimating originated with the Roman Legion as punishment inflicted on a unit (i.e., Legion) that exhibited cowardice in action. The offending unit was required by its officers to kill one in every ten of their own; usually by bludgeoning to death by peers.
Note that the salient point of decimation is that the unit could be punished to correct its behavior, yet remain an effective fighting force, especially after being motivated by killing ten percent of its own.
Something much worse that decimation is occurring to the AFU…
A fair point. Thanks for the reminder. I agree, what is coming is worse.
I agree that originally decimation meant only what you describe, but I would say that nowadays decimation is quite often (incorrectly) used to mean reducing to 10% of the original number or at least reduce to a number that makes a unit unable to fight anymore.
The is how the Romans used the word. It no longer means that. In modern English it means 9 out of 10. Languages change. Meanings change. Larry was right the first time.
De-ci-mate still means to reduce by 1/10. However, it sounds similar to de-va-state (to lay waste, cause great damage) which is what a speaker/writer usually means.
Bad usage distracts from one’s message. Just use devastate instead of decimate and you’re good to go. Easy-peasy.
Bob, Are you USMA ‘73?
Greg Pierce asking.
No, it still means 1/10 or a painful fraction of the whole.
Decimating a force means 1 out of 10 are killed. Another 2 or 3 would be seriously wounded, and 4 or more to take care of those wounded, effectively reducing the 10 soldiers to 1 or 2 left to fight.
For a few days, adrenaline or drugs can keep a decimated unit fighting, but within a week or so, they are totally useless for their original purpose without weeks or months of rest and refit. Not just for the replacement soldiers, but for the survivors to recover as functioning soldiers.
I think it’s same old story as with case of Finland vs Soviet Union during 1939-44. Numbers do matter and at the end it’s those numbers inevitably force the weaker to give up. BTW i have studied carefully with one Russian military aviation history guy named Dmitri Marchenko about air war between Soviet and Finnish forces during 1944. We both have debunked myths of Finnish fighter pilots having 1:20 kill ratio. Actually it was most likely between 1:2.5 to 1:3. It’s very interesting case teaching us not to trust too much on claims of other side of enemy losses.
Numbers matter, but they are not the only factor. Logistics, Command and control, high (and affordable) technology, air dominance, EW, A2D all are critical and favor Russia. And training and experience matter. A lot.
Ukraine has trained the last 8 years shooting civilians and participating in NATO training exercise, which are designed to not show up the (lack of) readiness of Germany and Italy, etc.. Consider the annual Russia Tank games – NATO hasn’t been able to be bothered for years now. Additionally, Russian weapons have been field tested against NATO weapons in Syria.
Additionally, Russia pioneered its anti-insurgency military strategy in Syria – depriving the fish of their water – and is applying it very well in Ukraine – if saboteurs were as successful in Donetsk and Lugansk as the Afghans were – we would be hearing about it non-stop from the MSM. No evidence of any learning from the Iraq or Afghan wars in the west.
Numbers matter, but they are only one of many factors. Logistics, Command and control, readiness, high (and affordable) technology, air dominance, EW, A2D all are critical and favor Russia. And training and experience matter. A lot. Iraq looked good on paper (but not the other factors)
Ukraine has trained the last 8 years shooting civilians and participating in NATO training exercise, which are designed to not show up the (lack of) readiness of Germany and Italy, etc.. Consider the annual Russia Tank games – NATO hasn’t been able to be bothered for years now. Additionally, Russian weapons have been field tested against NATO weapons in Syria.
Additionally, Russia pioneered its anti-insurgency military strategy in Syria – depriving the fish of their water – and is applying it very well in Ukraine – if saboteurs were as successful in Donetsk and Lugansk as the Afghans were – we would be hearing about it non-stop from the MSM. No evidence of any learning from the Iraq or Afghan wars in the west.
A buddy of mine is in the Lithuanian army, joined up because the economy is nackered and he couldn’t find a job. Recently he participated in that NATO exercise that was taking place in the Baltics as OPFOR.
His platoon managed to completely outmaneuver a German unit, came up behind them and opened up. Only, they had their MILES gear removed so they didn’t register any “Hits” and just turned around and shot back. OPFOR was handily defeated and the German army reigned supreme that day.
I imagine it was done intentionally so as not to humiliate the “Major” NATO countries.
What was that Finnish saying from the Winter and Continuation wars? “One Finnish soldier is equal to 20 Russian ones, but what happens when Russian soldier number 21 comes along?”
true, same with the rose tinted glasses and mostly blind acceptance of the 4th reich version in anglo countries about the war in Soviet Union.
One great example here:
“”Paper” victories of Luftwaffe aces. How did the Germans manage to shoot down more Soviet planes than they had at the front?”
https://cont.ws/@sam8807/2369922
In Russian but Yandex translate will help with that issue.
https://translate.yandex.com/?lang=ru-en
American foreign policy is to fight to the last Ukrainian. American hope is that Ukraine can fight as long as Vietnam or Afghanistan. That way Russian people need to spent money on the weapons instead on something else. Hope is that Russia will go bankrupt same as USSR.
But that point is also moot when Russia is making millions and billions hand over fist selling oil gas and commodities at higher prices lower quantity.
In the context of Russia being ‘bankrupt’ is a Western financialised concept. Russia has near unlimited minerals, energy of all types, food and a technologically competent workforce. Russia can print Rubles inside the Russian economy to maintain and stimulate economic activity without significant ‘constraints’. Might not be able to buy some Western products but they won’t starve or be cold. Also Russia’s military industrial complex is largely self contained within the Russian economy. Western economists don’t understand their own economies let alone Russia.
Yes, but …. would not the chart comparison be more accurate if the US/UK/NATO
resources poured into ukraine, the troops ammo mercs intel from P3, 135s,
drones, … all these were included.
Russia is fighting Ukraine only on paper. All those folks who are not involved, wink wink, make some difference.
Beats me why Russia would sell energy to countries who are handing guns to
Ukraine to shoot at … Russia!! Pity that pipeline sprung a leak.
Will Putin stick to his word, gas shut off until sanctions lifted?
Russia clearly wanted the west to remain in a false sense of energy security until fall and winter.
Great article.
Simply, the numbers are speaking.
SMO= (Ukraine(DM+DZ)+ (NATO*DM)/3 + CWC + PEU)*Sa + Rise of MPWO.
where;
SMO=Special Military Operation.
DM=Demilitarization
DZ= Denazification
CWC= Collapse of Western Civilization.
PEU= Poverty of Europe.
Sa= Sanctions
MPWO=Multipolar World Order.
At the moment, prolonging the war works in Russia favor. Ukraine is utter dependent on US and EU financial support. As the economic and energy crises intensify, specially across the EU, it will be unfeasible politically to continue to approve support package after support package to keep the regime in Kiev afloat (despite of what Annalena Baerbock think). Once the financial lifeline ends, Zelensky will be running to the airport. Not sure what will follow, likely a Russia friendly regime will be installed in Kiev and Zelensky will go the Guaido way!
They don’t want Ukraine to win. They want Russia to lose. He will fight for that goal until the last Ukrainian.
Best Quote of the SMO so far…
Asked whether Russia has anything to discuss with Ukrainian President Volodymer Zelensky after he ruled out peace talks, PESKOV said that, “ of course,” it does…
“ About how our conditions are met.”
There’s some more maths home work for Ukraine to complete.
As for the new Prime Minister of Global Bollocks, she is now known as Mrs Bean.
The French call her the “Iron Wind Vane.”
I can’t imagine how vulgar the Russian knick name is going to be.
Quote via Sputnik 7ish September 2022
Are you referring to Liz Hussy, the new British PM?
Is a joke ? the article is based on Ukrainian losses according to the Russian authorities infinitely less reliable than the losses of Vietcong in Vietnam and Taliban in Afghanistan provided by the Pentagon. So remember who won these wars in the end? It is not the most equipped army, but the most motivated force. By the way, I’m French. We know from our history that it is morale and the ability to roll with the punches while waiting for the weariness of the opponent that is more important than simply aligning numbers.
Ok Dien Bien Phu. As a Frenchman I know you have extensive experience with losing and retreating. So are you living vicariously through the Ukrainians? What is your evidence of the great morale on the part of the Ukrainians? I can show you multiple videos of units refusing to go into battle.
Bonjour Larry, je suis Français et je souhaite intervenir en langue française car je ne maîtrise pas assez l’anglais donc veuillez m’en excuser.
Des membres de ma famille ont combattu dans l’armée française : 14 / 18, 39 / 45, F.F.I. 42 / 44 (forces françaises de l’intérieur = Résistance), et guerre d’Algérie 54 / 62.
J’ai fait partie des troupes d’occupation en Allemagne = F.F.A forces françaises en Allemagne.
Je souhaite rétablir certaines vérités suite à la lecture du commentaire de ” l’amateur d’aéroplanes ” et de vous Larry Jonhson que je salue au passage.
Vous ne pouvez pas comparer le bilan des guerres US /Vietnam et US / Afghanistan avec le bilan des guerres France / Indochine (Vietnam) et France / Algérie et vous ne devez pas simplifier en écrivant que nous avons une grande expérience de la retraite et de la perte…ceci est une erreur, doublé d’un mensonge de la propagande adverse, car quand on considère les chiffres, les bilans et les victoires des combattants Français il est prouvé que nous avons été les meilleurs combattants du moment, avec notre LEGION, RIMA, RPIMA, Parachutistes coloniaux et Chasseurs Parachutistes ( commando Roger Vandenberghe etc).
Dien Bien Phu est une impardonnable erreur de notre état-major, soutenu par nos politiciens, là est toute la différence, et le Général Giap ( Vietminh) a bénéficié de l’appui extraordinaire des Chinois, et au niveau de la globalité du conflit Indochinois l’épisode de D.B.Ph était insignifiant , n’était qu’un petit épisode de la guerre Indochine / France.
Nous avons abandonné l’ex-colonie car nous avons été poussé par les principales puissances étrangères URSS USA etc à partir, nous étions des ” colonialistes “…
Nos politiciens (gouvernement Mendès-France) ont signé les ” accords de Genève ” en 54 ce qui a provoqué le départ des Français, et les militaires Français en ont gardé beaucoup de rancœur.
En 1954 une insurrection débute en Algérie Française, le FLN Algérien se lance dans des actions terroristes contre la population Européenne qui se traduit par des meurtres assassinats de famille complète femmes vieillards enfants bébés de civils,fermiers.
En l’espace de 6 ans le FLN front de libération national ( mouvement révolutionnaire algérien armé par Egypte, Allemagne, Urss etc ) a été laminé, écrasé, anéanti par les troupes de choc Françaises, en 1960 le FLN était exsangue.
Vous les américains n’oubliez pas que les Français sont les inventeurs des opérations de commandos héliportées ( par hélicoptères), inventeurs de l’installation des mitrailleuses et canons MG 151 à bord des Sikorsky H34 et vous avez copié notre savoir-faire pour le Vietnam, notre Général Aussaresses a formé vos bérets verts à FORT BRAGG..
Mais le général de gaulle détestait les français d’Algérie (= ” pied-noirs blackfeet “) et alors que nous avions écrasé le FLN sur le terrain il a trahi l’armée, trahi tous les combattants d’élite de l’armée Française, trahi les 1.400 000 millions d’ européens en Algérie, et a ordonné de donner l’indépendance aux musulmans, la presque totalité des blackfeet a abandonné tout ses biens, ses morts, et est parti à l’étranger.
Les nations unies et le général de gaulle sont les coupables du malheur des européens d’Algérie privés de leur histoire, de leur patrimoine sentimental et matériel, alors que l’Algérie avait été entièrement construite par ces blackfeet, c’était un pays très moderne avec ses barrages, ses routes, ses raffineries, nous avons trouvé le pétrole et l’avons abandonné, les ” accords d’évian ” en 1962 ont sonné le glas de l’Algérie Française, expression qui veut dire et je m’adresse aux américains la mort de l’Algérie Française.
Je vous ai démontré que si la France n’est plus au Vietnam et en Algérie, c’est parce que ses ” élites ” politiciennes l’avait décidé alors que les combattants Français régnaient en maître sur tous les terrains air mer et terre.
Those with the highest morale were hiding in the Azovstal. They ran out of morale before they ran out of ammo.
about when they ran out of water!
The funny thing is that they did not ran out of water. They had enough of food/water/ammo for a month of two. At first only the wounded were suppose to surrender (because they were rotting alive), but then those that carried them out decided that staying outside is better than getting back in the hole. When those still inside realized that, they wanted to get out too.
The French are experts at Morale, Hands up, It was just a lucky punch and Defeats aplenty. Vichy France WW2 . How am I doin?
The last big win for France was the Normandy invasion. Yes morale is an issue for some but the Russians just call it,…..
……………. “big Bear Balls win a continental wars.”
Baud has a 1 hour you tube video on his book. In a nutshell he mirrors Mearsheimer and says the kindest thing to do for Ukraine would have been to not help them and force them into a solution. The EU caved to Washington on this and in the process Ukraine will be destroyed. He points out that after Maidan corruption actually increased by 40% he also says the Bidens and many others made lots of money off this corruption.
He thinks ( I do too) that in the end the Ukrainian in the street will blame the EU and US. I go further and think against all logic that they will become pro Russian like Belarus. They may do to Zelensky what the Italians did to Mussolini. I may be wrong. Be interesting if I’m right.
Dang.
So what you’re sayin’ is thousands of Ukraines /Russians had ta die…
…ta keep the 10% going to ‘The Big Guy’?
‘Bout sums it up…and passes ‘the makes sense test’ as we used ta say in the infantry.
EU yes, pro russian yes, & Mussolini YES. Bidens and many others, to the Maxx so aMaerrica!
Makes me feel sorry for russia… except they are a *big* country, in every way, big hearted and large in vision, will proffer Z basic shelter for services rendered, in the furrests of the faar east.
They should take Ms Thrush in while they are at it.
Just wondering about the Russian advances from the south Donbass and from Peski. Autumn rain and Winter cold are coming, but what will happen to the UAF that is sitting like dead ducks in their bunkers opposite Donetsk with their supply lines being cut off. I guess that this huge difference with past autumns & winters will speed up the end of the UAF’s entrenched occupation of DPR territory.
Autumn wind and rain will not restrict Russian artillery.
Even if the weather is too bad for drones, the positions of fortifications are plotted to centimeters and can still be targeted in the worst of weather. BDA can wait a few days.
Meanwhile, for the Ukrainians on the other side, seeing as we are in a mathematical mode:
trench life + wind + rain + snow + constant artillery = trenchfoot + other ailments and diseases + artillery casualties.
I suspect the Ukrainians will be utterly broken over the coming winter. Winter warfare is only for the prepared and I don’t think the UAF have or will have the necessary clothing and support to fight the cold let alone the Allied forces.
I suspect the current ‘counteroffensives’ are a last hail mary before that winter inevitability.
Numbers are not everything.
How much better trained and supplied was the Afghan army vs the Taliban ?
Or the Syrian Army against the insurgents ?
In Yom Kippur war, Israeli army defeated a much much larger foe, surrounded on all sides with no strategic depth at all.
“It’s not the size of the dog in fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”
ok propagandist. Work yourself up to where you really want to fight Mike Tyson. Go up to him and punch him in the nose. Let’s see if your will overcomes his fists full of response.
The Taliban never engaged in set piece battles for a good reason. The communist Vietnamese had a strategy of avoiding traditional battles with the US for the same reason.
If you want to suggest – as does some other clown I know of – that Ukraine will conduct a SF style guerrilla war to defeat the Russians, then you need to a make case for how that would work, especially in ethnic Russia majority areas. Ukraine is not conducting guerrilla warfare. They are trying to slug it out on a traditional battlefield with more mighty force. Btw, you are totally disregarding the possibility that Russians also have a lot fight in them as well evidence – some of which LJ has posted over the months – that Ukrainian conscripts have increasingly less fight and a breaking morale.
But keep on dreaming.
Eric Newhill
you completely ignored what I said and proceeded to call me names (propagandist, clown etc). I never mentioned the US, guerrilla war or Mike Tyson.
Technically speaking ( a bit of an exxageration), this is not an “invasion”, because Donbas militias are doing the bulk of the fighting. Thus , again technically, ukrainians are fighting against ukrainian military.
This is being totally ignored by western media in favour of a simple, idiot-ready and idiot-proof propaganda term
I’m a little confused here in terms of the troop numbers. Didn’t Ukraine have the one advantage in the number of troops — some said it was even 3 to 1. Also, there was a Ukrainian defense department report found (perhaps a fake) that reported over 190,000 troops killed. How can they only have 125,000 troops?
Some estimates say that AFU had 200.000+ well trained soldiers at the beginning. Most of them are dead or wounded. Everything else is cannon fodder. A million men army filled with cannon fodder.
My comment, below, was addressed to you, here. I must have pressed the wrong “reply” button.
It starts “Because it’s not the Russian army that’s doing the fighting; it’s the Donbass militias/army doing all the front-line fighting, and they are vastly outnumbered (3-to-1 at the outset, probably more, now) by the Ukrainian military.”
Can I ask the questions none have so far ? Who gains the most of this situation ?
Ukrainians will loose at least part of the lands they claimed “de jure” , Russians will loose some soldiers and some markets for ruins in return. Europeans loose an access to cheap energy , so they’ll loose competitiveness.
What’s raw resources have seen it’s price soar the most in the last months ? Gaz and food.
Who have the most non competitive gaz and food producers ?
See , numbers matters somehow.
The US gains most from the situation, see:
1: They get to sell ultra-expensive LNG to an energy-starved Europe,
2: They bankrupt the European economy, thereby ridding themselves of a competitor, and their corporations get to buy their EU counterparts for pennies on the dollar,
3: They strengthen their geopolitical chokehold on their European vassals – see Sweden and Finland joining NATO,
4: They get to weaken Russia in a senseless fratricidal war – after all, despite the fact that the Russian economy has not collapsed, it has still shrunk by 6%.
So basically it’s win-win-win-win for the Empire.
“The US gains most from the situation, see:”
Thank you for “reflecting” the problem of Roadrunner’s opponents – namely their foci limiting their perspectives.
Thank you also for your co-operation in outlining other examples contingent upon the contents of :
NotRubbingSticks says
5 September 2022 at 16:38
“WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PLAN B IS JUST MORE OF PLAN A?”
and possibly Mr. Johnson’s bridge from “WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PLAN B IS JUST MORE OF PLAN A?” to UKRAINE AND RUSSIA–IT IS A MATH PROBLEM illustrating:
How strange, the change, from linear to linear for some:facilitating iterations from amazement to enmazement for a sum of some.
Because it’s not the Russian army that’s doing the fighting; it’s the Donbass militias/army doing all the front-line fighting, and they are vastly outnumbered (3-to-1 at the outset, probably more, now) by the Ukrainian military. Remember that the 3-to-1 ratio was at the beginning of the war, comparing the Donbass regulars to the active-duty Ukrainian forces. Since then, The Ukraine has called up *all* of its reserves and national guard and started actively conscripting on a scale that’s typically unheard of: essentially, grabbing every male between the ages of 17 to 60 they can get their hands on.
So yes, the Ukrainian forces now vastly outnumber the Donbass regulars, probably on a scale of some 6-to-1.
It’s for that reason that the progress on the Russian side is so slow. Also, it is likely that the Donbass regulars may be approaching the breaking point in terms of men lost, so it may well be that the Russian army will need to get directly involved, soon. Currently there is only the Wagner Group, the Chechens (for urban warfare), and the Russian forces that took Kherson, in the south, which are actively participating. But outside of the Wagner Group and the Chechens, the other Russian forces are mostly in a defensive posture, or operating artillery, anti-aircraft, air force munitions, C4ISR, and re-supply from the rear.
Russia is going to gain the most, here.
The sanctions are dismantling the EU’s economy, and that in turn will severely damage the US economy. We are already seeing this in the inflation that has hit the entire “collective West”. Because the central banks wish to protect the Billionaires’ savings, they will hike interest rates and cause rampant unemployment. Unemployment *is being* further increased by factories and other industry shutting down because of a lack of energy. Already, many of the largest smelters in Europe have shut their doors–in France (1), Germany (3), the UK (1), Poland, Spain (2), Italy (2), Serbia, Czechia, and Slovakia. At the same time, food and energy prices are skyrocketing and will continue to do so because–of course–Russia supplies a lot of the gas, oil, and fertilizer to make factories run and food grow.
Russia’s economy, meanwhile, is growing–not shrinking, like the propagandist above claims–and the ruble continues to increase in value. Of course the Russian economy will vacillate, like any economy does; but in comparison to the US and EU economies, it’s running along just fine. Russia now has exclusive trade deals with China, India, Turkey, Iran, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and all of Central Asia. The sanctions aren’t hurting it because Russia is an autarky–it is completely self-sufficient and really doesn’t need anything the West supplies, these days.
In contrast, the EU’s industrial base and economic base are **dependent** upon Russian-supplies of natural resources.
The US corporate elites may see a brief boost in profits over the short term, but that will be very brief. Soon–some time in the next 10 years or so–even the US economy will start to collapse, and in a way that hasn’t been seen since the Civil War era. Once the rest of the world starts trading with China and Russia using the Ruble and the RMB the US’s financial monopoly that it has built up ever since the end of WWII (The Marshall Plan/Bretton Woods) will inevitably collapse and the corporate profiteers will suddenly be faced with the fact that they don’t have enough money in circulation amongst the rest of us to “make things go.”
Although it once was, today the US is *not* an autarky: it is lacking a broad industrial base by which it could supply itself with basic goods and mechanics. The US agricultural sector is geared for corporate profits and export rather than the supply of the American people, which is reflected in the epidemics of obesity, heart disease, and chronic illness that the US suffers at rates far higher than any other OSCE nation.
So: Russia is building a multi-polar world order, and the US is going to be the biggest loser, with the EU coming in not far behind. The problem of economic inequality–the concentration of wealth in the hands of .5% of the American and European peoples (just who is Klaus Schwab anyway, and why does he get to plan “The Great Reset”?)–is what is driving all of this, and it is that which will break the back of the American economy in the years to come. For now, it is dismantling the EU’s economy right before our eyes–not “Putin,” not “Russia,” but the sanctions which the US ordered the EU to impose.
Very interesting, but (there is ever a but) the USA never played the long game. They are poker players, gambling with other people golds, they will just choose another card to play. Europe is dead ? Anyway ; Asia has a lot of money isn’t it ? (Nancy was in Formose lately , followed by a bunch of congressmens.)
The hope for many in the RoW is for Russia and/or China to flip the table, so far the game is running and the dollar monopoly is not dead yet, badly hurt but not dead.
How will it end ? Noboby know. It’s the nature of a gamble and the multipolar world might also bee seen as another risky gamble by lots of people too.
30 years ago I was in my early 20s. I got into a heated argument with my father where I asserted that in about 20 or 30 years China and Russia would coalesce around Central Asia and once that happened the US and Western Europe would no longer be relevant, because the vast (!) majority of the world’s population resides on the Eurasian continent.
30 years ago the rise of China’s technology sector was not evident. As an expatriate historian living among Chinese, it was clear to me that the rise of China to become a technology and science leader was inexorable. Time has proven me correct.
A few years later I was again in another heated argument with my father. I was trying to explain to him that the erosion of the Petrodollar as the global world reserve currency would spell doom for the US economy. He would have none of it.
Today, we see India, Saudi Arabia, and China now purchasing Russian oil (and other Russian basic commodities) in Rubles. BRICS countries purchasing Chinese finished goods in RMB. Dollar Hegemony–which is the cornerstone of the US economy, such as it is–is no more.
The US economy is entirely dependent upon its FIRE sector–Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate. Literally 95% of what we call the “GDP” is earned there–on interest, on speculation. The vaunted “US Industry” that once allowed the US to operate as an autarky is, also, no more.
You ask, rhetorically, “How will it end?”
I can answer that, actually: it will end with a total collapse of the US economy, which will likely be followed by a civil war which I, for one, hope will never happen. But with the polarization of the US electorate by a media that routinely (and incompetently) lies and two political parties which are actually a single political party populated by a collection of very, very, very deceitful politicians, I have recently decided that that postulated civil war is far more likely than I ever would have imagined, back 30 years ago.
Civil war in a country with lots of nukes … What could possibly goes wrong ?
It reminds me a dialogue in Futurama :
“Fry : There is still snow in the 31st century ? What appends to climate change ?”
“The professor : Oh ! We ended that shit with the Nuclear winter !”
Secession ; maybe. Civil war ; what’s so civil about war anyway ? I’m not so sure it … it may end more like soviet union with united nations intervening. This is hot shit you’re talking’bout.
“Who gains the most of this situation ?”
Mr. Chou en Lai was once asked whether the French Revolution had been successful.
His response was – It’s too soon to say.
Derivatives of Cui bono ? are popular, but mostly the question of fools immersed in the past and precedent, the question of wise practitioners being, how can we use this to serve our purposes with minimum blowback?
I read somewhere (I forget exactly) that this is a myth and that he was referring to the French “events” of 1968. Apparently the translator misinterpreted him. 1968 makes more sense than 1789.
“that he was referring to the French “events” of 1968. Apparently the translator misinterpreted him. 1968 makes more sense than 1789.”
Reliance on interpretation is always unwise, as is the notion of the existence of translation.
Some interpret the “French Revolution” as being in 1968, whereas some multi-linguists of a certain disposition interpreted the “French Revolution” as having taken place in 1789, whilst some others conflate “an answer” with “the answer”, whilst many do not realise that speculation is a vector facilitating re-enforcement of assumptions/interpretations, rendered especially disadvantageous when we the people hold these truths to be self-evident.
I’m still unsure as to the number of Russian troops deployed. I believe the number was 190,000 in the early going. But I believe it was Andrei Martyanov who asserted as few as 80,000.
What’s holding the Russians back right now is their hesitation to commit larger numbers of troops to the attack. Time is on their side so they are just going to slowly grind their enemies to pulp.
Is the hesitation political ? I’ve heard conflicting reports of: (A) Russian public not committed to a proper war (B) Russian public impatient with Putin and wanting a proper war.
From what I’ve heard, the war isn’t really considered big news right now in Russia. Only a relatively small minority is paying close attention, while among the general public there is a general consideration that yes, the war is necessary, but there is not a strong focus on what precisely is going on.
So yes: the hesitation to commit large amounts of troops may well be political, insofar as the Russian leadership doesn’t want to provoke the public to start paying close attention to what’s going on, over there.
Among supporters of the war, there are a lot of people in the Donbass who certainly want a stronger commitment of Russian forces for the simple reason that it’s all (almost literally: apparently, the cities, towns, and villages of the Donbass are now mostly drained of their fighting-age males) their men and boys who are doing the fighting and dying, right now. So there are loud calls from the Donbass for a stronger Russian commitment. The call from Russian-Russians who support the war is also there, but the people who are really calling out for stronger Russian involvement are the fighters in the Donbass.
Larry, I think you’ve fallen for the bean-counting fallacy here. It’s not so much the total number of troops and equipment each country possesses, but the actual percentage that each can deploy to the conflict. Russia isn’t going to withdraw troops from their Eastern MD for example because it’s costly, time-consuming, and it also opens up the possibility of NATO invading that theater.
Andrew, When did the Russian General Staff brief you on their war plans? Do tell. You really suffer from an ignorance of US military capability. Where exactly in Eastern Russia would NATO “invade?” In making such a statement you reveal yourself to be stupid or a troll.
Right. So you ignored my first part, then insulted me. If you’re not familiar with the bean-counting fallacy, I suggest you look up the Saker for an explanation.
” ….then insulted me.”
Thank you for illustrating why some are engaged in projection of insult as a component of “strategy”, and misguidedly expect a response similar to your own with short time lags 13-00, 1305.
Safe apace alert.
Transgender worrier feeling hurt. Call the nurse.
Right. So you ignored the first part of my argument then insulted me. I don’t think you’re not familiar with this bean-counting fallacy, but in case you’re not, I suggest you look up The Saker for an explanation.
As for the Russian GS not briefing me about their plans, I could say the same thing you. Why did you even include that non-sequitur?
RE repsinec says
7 September 2022 at 10:04
and
Andrew Ho says
7 September 2022 at 11:09
“The US gains most from the situation, see:”
“Larry, I think you’ve fallen for the bean-counting fallacy here. “
Thank you for “reflecting” the problem of Roadrunner’s opponents – namely their foci limiting their perspectives.
Thank you also for your co-operation in outlining other examples contingent upon the contents of :
NotRubbingSticks says
5 September 2022 at 16:38
“WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PLAN B IS JUST MORE OF PLAN A?”
and possibly Mr. Johnson’s bridge from “WHAT HAPPENS WHEN PLAN B IS JUST MORE OF PLAN A?” to UKRAINE AND RUSSIA–IT IS A MATH PROBLEM illustrating:
How strange, the change, from linear to linear for some:facilitating iterations from amazement to enmazement for a sum of some.
How is NATO going to enter the war? How could they fight Russia? NATOstan factories can barely operate due to fuel cost and shortages. They would have no energy to produce arms and ammunition – and much of what they had stockpiled has already gone to Ukraine (to no avail I might add). Maybe they could buy what they need from South Korea?
Thanks for playing, but you lose. It’s checkmate, Russia.
I read an article by Paul Craig Roberts, schimpfing that the Russians made a grave mistake by not making the SMO a Blitzkrieg. Perhaps.
Then again, one of the main objectives was to demilitarise Ukraine, and the best way to do that is to slowly, methodically destroy all the materiel and, more important, the manpower able to continue waging war. Fewer surviving military aged men and women in a defeated Ukraine means fewer partisans remaining to engage the Russians in bloody ambushes with IEDs, etc.
PCRs main worry, legitimate, is that a prolonged war that NATO loses could lead to escalation to nuclear weapons. A quick war lessens the time for NATO to decide to enter the war, lose, and launch nukes.
As it happens, the hypersonic missiles that were used early on to destroy the NATO training base in west Ukraine, shocked NATO because, with no warning and no defense, the entire NATO European military leadership could be decapitated in an hour or two. At that point stupid talk of a no-fly zone and a Polish safe zone in Ukraine ceased.
So it seems the Russian approach has lessened the chance of escalation, as more and more Nato weapons are found to be great on paper and useless on the battlefield (and destroyed). Armory depletion lessens the change of nuclear escalation, IMO.
Question: Any idea of the ratio of Russian boots on the ground vs Dombass militias allies? Can’t find a decent answer. Russian casualties can be replaced whereas there is a limited supply of local boys who, it appears, do the bulk of the front-line fighting and most MSM talk of Russians, Russians, Russians. It is considered a war between Ukraine and Russia when it could in fact be a civil war with some help from the neighbours.
It is a math problem, indeed, but there are other serious problems facing UKR and the West/NATO. I lifted this (below) from Moon of Alabama who had lifted it from a WaPo piece. It is an article written by a WaPo reporter who was given access to a hospital treating UKR casualties of the “offensive”. Seems that UKR is being outclassed, militarily, in every way conceivable.
““We lost five people for every one they did,” said Ihor, a 30-year-old platoon commander who injured his back when the tank he was riding in crashed into a ditch.
…
Russia’s Orlan drones exposed Ukrainian positions from more than a kilometer above their heads, they said, an altitude that meant they never heard the buzz of the aircraft tracking their movements.
Russian tanks emerged from newly built cement fortifications to blast infantry with large-caliber artillery, the wounded Ukrainian soldiers said. The vehicles would then shrink back beneath the concrete shelters, shielded from mortar and rocket fire.
Counter-battery radar systems automatically detected and located Ukrainians who were targeting the Russians with projectiles, unleashing a barrage of artillery fire in response.
Russian hacking tools hijacked the drones of Ukrainian operators, who saw their aircraft drift away helplessly behind enemy lines.
…
Oleksandr said the Russian artillery fire was relentless. “They were just hitting us all the time,” he said. “If we fire three mortars, they fire 20 in return.”
The Ukrainian soldiers said they had to carefully ration their use of munitions but even when they did fire, they had trouble hitting targets. “When you give the coordinates, it’s supposed to be accurate but it’s not,” he said, noting that his equipment dated back to 1989.
…
Russian electronic warfare also posed a constant threat. Soldiers described ending their shifts and turning on their phones to call or text family members — a decision that immediately drew Russian artillery fire.
“When we turn on mobile phones or radio, they can recognize our presence immediately,” said Denys. “And then the shooting starts.”
Wow, great disparity in numbers and economics. Reminds me of the USA vs North Vietnam and USA vs Afganistan. Simply a math problem.
Yes, and US refused to use its full military power because of fear of bringing Russia and China into the fray. Are you suggesting that Russia is similarly constrained from achieving its interest and goals in Ukraine? Can’t wait to hear you make that case.
Yes, and Russia refuses to use its full military power because of fear of bringing the U.S. and NATO into the fray. Are you suggesting that Russia is unconstrained from acheiving its interests and goals in Ukraine? Can’t wait to hear you make that case.
just found this headline of an article in web.de:
“Challenge in winter? Russians should not have enough winter equipment… Today, you should not have enough winter equipment. Experts suspect that the Russian soldiers are struggling with some difficulties in the winter.”
oh yeah. I can imagine the russians have no idea how to deal with winter (irony off).
Really incredible what western propaganda is inventing
I wonder how hard it’s going to be for those who tell me Russia is so desperate for replacement troops they are recruiting from prisons and mental hospitals when I ask them how such an army of misfits was able to defeat NATO’s best army?
I really don’t see much of a problem for Russia with insurgents when this war finally ends. I suspect the average (non-Nazi) Ukrainian will eventually learn the truth and back away from the EU and NATO.
Those people who understand that this war is NOT a war between Ukraine and Russia, but between the West and Russia they will also understand why Russia is:
1) barely committing 10% of its military force in this SMO,
2) allowing the West to send all sorts of weaponry into the Ukraine,
3) moving extremely slowly land-wise,
4) rapidly building alliances in the background (expanding BRICS+, Shanghai Coop Org,
5) slowly increasing economic pressure on Europe (but not on the US).
Russia expects two potential outcomes from this military operation as far as the West is concerned:
A. The West (collectively, US and its puppet regimes in the EU) lose the nerve and collectively go off the deep end. That’s a total war, that within days or weeks escalates to nuclear. Russia has been preparing for this outcome since 2007 (hence thousands of S300, hundreds of S400, and soon S500, hence Sarmat, Zircon, Kinzhal, Iskander, and Poseidon). The West’s chances of survival in this situation are pretty close to nil. Russia’s much higher (it has much more advanced anti-missile systems and now hypersonic delivery capabilities). China and Iran are likely to be on the helping side. All other BRICS+ and SCO partners will either be helping secretly or stay neutral.
In case the West will try to go for some “limited escalation” – throw in some additional cannon fodder into the fire (first Ukis, then Poles / 3Balts, and some other European “meat”), Russia is preparing for this right now in Ukraine by carefully studying Western weapon systems to ensure it knows how to neutralize them (while at the same time not deploying some of its more advanced ones, such Electronic Warfare systems, to ensure it can 100% neutralize and blind the West if they decide to try to “limited” war thingy and they won’t know what happened to them).
B. Western Europe is the weak link. Unlike rabid neo-Nazis a la Poles and 3Balts, who are ready to die for the “American cause” any day just because soft-bodied / comfort-loving EU citizens are not going to like the economic consequences of ice-cold homes, 30-40% unemployment, complete demolition of their economies just to help the US “stay hegemonic” for another few years. So, they will either hang the minions installed by the US as their “leaders” on lampposts their societies will collapse into Mad Max type situation with everyone against everyone.
The Ukraine in this whole situation is a pawn. Or as one blogger said even more colorfully, “it is not even a figure on the chessboard, it’s just a bit of dust on it”…
Putin will end the hegemonic, neo-colonial, rapacious rule of the West once and for all and will cut the West to size. Or, if the West chooses, it will all end up in a nuclear disaster. All 5 points above are aimed at this binary outcome, and have nothing to do with the Ukraine that was used by the West as a tool against Russia all along.
“So why in the world would any sane person believe that Ukraine can or would defeat Russia in a military contest?”
Because that is the observable battlefield result.
Really? Like Mariupol? How about the Ukrainian retreat from Luhansk? Just exactly where did this defeat take place Mr. Troll?
The impact of the Russian sanctions are the best thing that could have happened to Europe. Europe is led by fanatics who are dedicated to destroying the lives of the masses while further enriching the elite. The masses go along with this. Sooner or later the desire to destroy the economy so that university educated people can virtue signal was going to bring about an actual economic catastrophe.
Bingo. Now they have one. This is an opportunity for the masses to see that a destroyed economy is not as exciting as they imagined. It is better for this to have happened now than when the traditional people are a minority.
How the masses react to this will tell whether there is any hope for Europe. For example will the reaction be to bring back sanity even if they are called Nazis for doing so or will it be to double down on green energy? I would bet on the latter.
The only question is whether we conquer Russia and China before or after Civil War part two.
After that the high speed rail and Wakanda moonbase will be completed.
We need sunglasses for the golden future that awaits.
Yes, and Russia refuses to use its full military power because of fear of bringing the U.S. and NATO into the fray. Are you suggesting that Russia is unconstrained from acheiving its interests and goals in Ukraine? Can’t wait to hear you make that case.
Though I see Ukraine as a country run by corrupt oligarchs and the Donbass as unreasonably bombed for 8 years, justice is not the reason I want to see the Russians win this conflict. It’s not about American power or NATO or Putin or any of that.
I see this conflict as one that is being fought as a matter of state survival. One side is going to lose. If Ukraine loses, the U.S. and NATO will lick their wounds and move on. If Russia is about to lose, nuclear war becomes a reasonable possibility unless Russian elites are willing to sacrifice their political and military leadership and become a colony of the west. Should a nuclear conflict escalate and eliminate numerous cities it would be the end of civilization. There would be no food, water, or power for many many years because there would be no societal infrastructure left. Ask how long your city can function without food, water and power. The choice is an easy one to make.
I’m a bit stunned here and in other comment sections to see that people think entertaining the notion that winter or spring would change Russia’s timeline for this conflict is even remotely valid. Please remember that in response to Ukraine’s buildup since October 2021, Russia had shown 100,000 troops amassed within a 200km range of the Ukrainian line of contact, for months. Not only that, February 24 is still winter, and those who know that part of the world, know that winter then lasts another 2 months. So Russia already did all of the war exercises and actual war advances and artillery during both winter and spring 2022. There are stupid people who must live in countries other than Canada, northern USA, Scandinavia or Russia who think that November or December is the real winter. Winter really hits you in January-February, grinds on you in March and you curse it in April, only to have real relief in May. Russia already went through all of that and is familiar with all the planning. The ones who should fear winter are those that don’t understand this, or those that won’t have the money to heat themselves.
Russia has “only” committed so and so much mil. force to its SMO ? –
Mentioned here and elsewhere, quite often, this claim that Russia has “only” fielded, let’s say, around 150 to 200 thousand personnel.
The Duran or Christoforou etc. hold that now Russia has only a fraction committed, 10 per cent, or so.
Which sounds quite delusional, also, I’m sorry.
Relatively easy to find is the information that e. g. Russias active land forces count – at best – numbered something short of 400.000.
How one can arrive at claims of only a tenth or a fraction of actual Russian forces were in action, escapes my comprehension.
What are these people suppose Russia has at hand ? A millionman strong army like in the ol’ days of Soviet (!) mass mobilization army ?
Folks, these days are long gone. Don’t fool yourself & underestimate – also – the strain on Russia’s military resources.
Try offering up some actual evidence instead of your own uninformed opinion.
Uninformed ? So tell me, please, what you might count as Russian active reserve potential not played out yet.
Suppose you are familiar with actual number of Russian AF. Comprises quite a lot of different bodies, including army, airforce, navy, strategic rocket space forces, internal troops, border troops, emergency (half civil, unarmed) & what not.
(these minutes I heard The Duran pledge that Rosgvardia, operating around ominous Charkov Charkiv now, is not fully worth fighting force. Sounds quite a bit like a blame for failing a bit – Eh !)
Counted together, we arrive at around 1 mill. personnel, perhaps slightly more. Not that Rrussian army of around 2 -3 Mill. some people tent to fantasize about, don’t we. – And don’t come up with – yet – not mobilized reserve Russian potential.
Even if that would be included, it could not be counted as fully committable and qualitatively equal for quite a time to come. If ever, not any time near “soon” or “quick”.
You are the one making unfounded claims. Support them.
O.k., obviously “we” can take data from open sources, you will know these, speaking of active Russian army even under (!) 300.000, some 150 or 160 air force and navy each, 60 strategic rocket / space, 300 (!) or so Rosgvardia (not real fighting force, eh !), & I need not coming up with border guards and emergency units etc. counting in, don’it i.
Now it is your term to argue against.
Loved the comparison chart above thank you.
I am completely unschooled in this stuff and would like to see the USA figures added to this chart.
Thanks so much