Not to beat a dead horse, but most of the world has a delusional image in their head of the war in Ukraine. As I have written previously, much of the fault lies with Hollywood, which through a plethora of movies has conditioned the masses to think of war as the conquest of critical territory. But that is a misleading image when it comes to Ukraine. Yes, there are strategically important pieces of territory that must be captured or defended, but there also are vast swaths of plains (we call them prairies here in the United States) that are tactically difficult to control and, if you succeed in capturing an area of land, you create a problem of how to defend it.
Please take a look at the following video with this in mind. Although the video shows how Russia’s Wagner Group is building defensive lines, please focus on the general landscape rather than the work of the engineers:
Russia has a decisive advantage over Ukraine when it comes to battling for this territory, even though it ceded some of it a few weeks ago to advancing Ukrainian troops. Why? Because Russia’s air force is still intact and can be used to attack massed Ukrainian units. Ukraine’s air capability has been eviscerated. Russia also enjoys a lopsided advantage in tanks. In case you have any doubts, the video above shows quintessential tank country.
At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .
However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.
The Military Balance 2021 database says Russian storage facilities have around 10,200 tanks, including various T-72s, 3,000 T-80s, and 200 T-90s.
https://ukrainetoday.org/2022/09/01/how-many-tanks-does-russia-really-have/
Tank battles on rolling plains is great grist for a Hollywood blockbuster, but the real peril for Ukraine has been on display over the last two days–Russia’s hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles and air launched rockets mangling power nodes and military headquarters throughout Ukraine. The Russian strikes in the last two days significantly degraded Ukraine’s ability to supply electricity and critical heat to its major cities. The attacks also are disrupting Ukraine’s cell phone network and its ability to move troops and equipment from the west to the frontlines in the east.
Ukraine does not have a comparable capability to counter the Russian attacks. Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighted the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system. It is neither a mistake nor a coincidence that Russia’s strikes in major Ukrainian cities–more than 100 missiles– caused very few human casualties, especially on the civilian side of the ledger. Despite Ukrainian claims that Russia’s strikes killed civilians, the evidence suggests otherwise–Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools.
What is the United States and NATO going to do? Immediately deploy the Iron Dome anti-missile system? Unfortunately, these Western anti-missile systems are not designed to defeat the missiles Russia is launching. Then there is the logistics problem–i.e., getting those systems deployed and training personnel to operate them. This will take weeks, if not months. And Ukraine does not have the luxury of time in this regard. Making matters worse, the United States and NATO do not have the reserves to quickly resupply Ukraine:
The United States will soon be unable to supply Ukraine, as it has up to now, with the sophisticated equipment essential for its defense against Russia as its reserves are reaching their limits, especially in terms of ammunition. . . .
But US stockpiles of certain equipment are “reaching the minimum levels necessary for war and training plans” and getting weapons stockpiles back to pre-invasion levels could take years, Mark Cancian wrote in a recent analysis. of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.
https://www.archyde.com/us-army-exhausts-its-ability-to-supply-ammunition-to-ukraine/
Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border. Whether this is a bluff by Russia or genuine preparation for opening a new front in the north, the massing of forces requires Ukraine to deploy already depleted forces to the northern border. This will weaken Ukraine’s ability to hold off a Russian offensive in Kherson and Zaporhyzhia.
I believe that the events during the next five weeks will create a crisis within NATO and the United States. If Russia seizes the initiative and moves in force against Ukrainian units, NATO will not be in a position to rescue Ukraine from defeat on the battlefield. Any further intervention by NATO will make it, in the eyes of the Russians, a legitimate military target.
Compounding the military challenges confronting the United States and NATO, there are the economic and political headwinds. Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. The economic conditions throughout Europe of inflation and shuttering businesses will fuel more domestic unrest and diminish enthusiasm for keeping Ukraine afloat.
When you take all of these factors into consideration, the conclusion is clear–Russia enjoys a strategic and tactical initiative that will be difficult to surmount. Conversely, NATO is in trouble.
Unfortunately, that’s the problem – NATO is in trouble. That’s the 64 million dollar “call ” that has players trying to decide to call, fold, or bluff on the ” Nuclear Option”.
Please stop this “ Go Nuclear, ” talk.
Nobody dares attack (mad ?) Rock-man in North Korea.
Nobody dare take on the (Mad?) Mullahs in Iran.
Nobody dare take on the (mad ?) Syrian dude.
Nobody dare take on the jungles of Venezuelan- (Mad ?) Dude.
Nobody will take on the (Mad ?) Saudi Prince.
Why? Because they know it’s game on if someone messes with’um.
They think Putin is just a gentleman from a cultured society of art, theatre, books and science. Therefore would never risk a launch of nukes.
So they mouth off, threaten and bully a quite civilised man and think he is weak, wrong.
Biggest Wokie Dokie arse up mistake of recorded history. So they will instead go for the same old same old, quagmire, colour revolutions, sabotage and assassinations. Then go broke.
Assassinate Putin ? Then Brandon, Liz the Tosser, the Sausage, the Poodle, the 5 Eyes and Manhattan will be flash fried. Mr Kentucky Bolton will get his own SMO. That could well be contracted out soon than anyone thinks.
Remember Putins words, “ No Russia No world.” (Or words to that effect.)
Yes it’s that serious. He has the artillery ammo, the missiles, the muscle and the fighting men to do the business. ( No mascara or strap-on dicks.)
: )
The Word!!!!
They would attack RU with first nuclear strike if they thought they could get away with it, because if RU is defeated, they would have complete World dominance.
So only thing that is stopping West from doing it is that at this point they know that nuclear war would either result in costly RU victory, or total world destruction and irradiation for several milenia, however, if they thought that they could make a costly West victory, they would probably attempt it becuase billions of casualties don’t really worry them if they would have world dominance after that.
If the USA and west got Russia under their thumb there are so many illegals in western countries the other countries could pay for a never ending guerilla war in the USA and Europe. I envision a daily mass casualty event in DC, New York, Toronto, London, Paris It would look like a
Bruce Willis movie. May happen anyways. People are not going to lay down worldwide.
Well articulated and I agree with you 100%.
The only problem with your conjecture is the failure to recognize US leaders as mad.
All the nuke talk is typical psyop preconditioining. Just like the “Russia is going to invade Ukraine” mantra that was repeated for years until they finally provoked it.
Concordo
Agree. Those who rule out any chance of nukes being used are making a massive assumption about the sanity of the Western leaders. A power bloc that believes it’s fine to erase its southern border, to lock people down for two years over a flu virus and carry out acts of terrorism against foreign fuel and transport inspirations is not going to be chary of using nukes to protect its power base. I just hope that there are some sane people left in the Pentagon who can stop these maniacs.
Sorry, “installations” not “inspirations”!
Kudos!
Yes, the sociopathic Kagan-Neocon Claque are cozy in their sinecures, ensconced in plush K-Ring suites, so are perfectly fine to foment a false flag in Kyiv or Lviv killing school children while screeching, “Kill Putin!”
But the side having no recourse to mascara is proving itself unequivocally capable of smashing Western Girl Scout warmaking departments right in their faces.
Much appreciated!
I agree with you. Even US, that is thousand miles away from EU and Russia, know that their territory would be transformed in ashes in case of a nuclear war. I am confident that Russia will never launch the first nuke. She has already demonstrated a rational and strategic way to deal with these genocides from west.
There will be no nuclear war because the Western elite loves their Chanel shopping, money, cocktail parties and servants too much. Their private jet travel and “lifestyles”.
And that’s the truth.
The problem is NOT the luxury lifestyles of Western “elites”.
The real problem for the West is the loss of reserve currency status of the petro-dollar, upon which all their power and wealth depend. The Globalist Bankers pulling the strings of US/EU will do ANYTHING to prevent that from happening. ANYTHING.
WW3 started on Feb 24, 2022 because for both Russia and the Globalist Bankers, this is THE existential confrontation. Neither side can or will back down.
I agree with Paul Craig Roberts; a quick and decisive Russian victory *MIGHT* have prevented Armageddon, or at least postponed it (because the West will NEVER accept Ukraine’s defeat).
But the SMO (Slow Motion Operation) has emboldened the West and allowed them to gaslight the public in support of non-stop escalation against “unprovoked Russian aggression”. It is amazing how many of my friends and family have bought this lie hook, line, and sinker. Very, very dangerous times.
> It is amazing how many of my friends and family have bought this lie hook, line, and sinker.
I guess we’re all in the same boat. Family members are either sticking their hands over their ears going lalalalala or claiming that NAZI tattoos are photoshopped.
The good news is I’ll be owed many steak dinners when this is over.
What’s amazing to me, is the huge number of people that I know, and know of, who couldn’t care less about Ukraine, or Russia, or Europe. They’re firmly focused on Biden and his destruction of our lives, literally.
That’s good enough for me. Why should we care about what happens to Europe? Voluntarily or not, our ancestors left the old world behind. We’re building something new here. Something better.
President Washington knew what he was talking about when he wrote his farewell address: don’t get caught up in their ridiculous machinations.
As European I say: “Yes! thank you, forget about us, please” and by the way, could you please control your f**** government, administration and so called entrepreneurs so they stop putting their nose everywhere at the expense of others? You bear a responsibility here as well as we bear a responsibility with our weak and corrupted leaders.
Hopefully, the slow motion operation may end up having the effect of bleeding the west so thoroughly that it destroys their ability to produce and supply the arms to continue their aggressive forever war strategy, that will possibly lead to a saner world. I know it’s a long shot, but one can dream.
“I agree with Paul Craig Roberts; a quick and decisive Russian victory *MIGHT* have prevented Armageddon-”
That’s why I voted for Trump. In order to delay the onset of WWIII a few more years. I would have voted for a fencepost, if had had the same chance to beat the Clinton’s, as Trump did.
I wanted to vote for Huffines for Governor of Texas, but he didn’t make it. But I’ll vote for Abbott, for the same reason that I voted for Trump. To delay our inevitable defeat and downfall, a few more years.
Whether there’s nuclear combat, or not, is entirely dependent upon what our so-called leaders do, not upon Russia.
Every time they talk about NBC weapons, they’re either trying to set up a false flag as an excuse to invade someplace. Or to join in somebody else’s war. A war which they probably fomented, in the first place
Hi there,
IMO, Russia couldn’t barge in and raze Ukraine to the Stone Age because it has to take into account the international community.
85% Of the world population is with Russia because it doesn’t behave like the US.
Russia’s Slow Motion Operation was by design. They succeeded in lulling the West into believing that Russia was operating at full capacity or at least all that they dared to throw at the Ukraine. This had the effect of causing the West to empty out its stockpiles of weapons insofar as it might dare in order to assist Ukrainian efforts at resistance. So Ukraine has thrown all its weapons and most of the surplus West’s weapons at the Russian invaders as well as a frightful number of its own troops killed and wounded. This simply destroys the Ukrainian army while preserving the Russian army almost completely intact. Lately, the Russians have sacrificed small amounts of territory to inflict massive Ukrainian deaths and casualties, encouraging them to throw waves of troops and weapons in exchange for peanuts.
Ukraine will run out of troops and weapons. Russia has barely committed to date. This was a maskirovka.
Thor, kudos to you. I respect Putin greatly. But he fucked this up. He played it so damn slow, they think they can win. He showed so much restraint, he emboldened them. He gave them too much time. And as to the horseshit excuses. This bought time to get China’s support. Bullshit. China supports no one but China. And the PLA still wets the bed every time they think about Vietnam much less the US Navy. But he seems to have woke up. But his “restraint” has cost lives, made the situation more precarious, and it will take longer.
And not only that, Western elites also know that their strategic nuclear missiles will be intercepted by Russian S-500, whereas Russian hypersonic missiles cannot be intercepted by NATO’s missile defense systems.
Hence after the nuclear war, it will be the Russians who will be enjoying Chanel (or the Russian equivalent), cocktail parties, etc. !
Very well remember, friend. Nowadays, the Russian military technologies are decades ahead of west as well as the Russian troop is very well trained in operations in Siria and Ukraine. Such thing we don’t see with the European or even US army, that prefer to contract mercenaries to make the dirty work.
Dead right there. The West is dying as elites live a life of luxury. The leader of the Green Party in Australia is a member of Qantas’s Chairman’s Club and flys business class around Australia. Business class uses 2-4 times more carbon than economy class. Our elite down under – I will let you reach a conclusion ie say one thing and do another.
It doesn’t matter. They could nuke Washington, DC tomorrow and you would never know. Who is going to “inform” you?
Even if you lived right next to a first strike target, who are you going to tell about the big flash in the sky?
We could have had a nuclear war already, and all being dying from radiation (COVID) and how would we know?
People will go up to their bedrooms and die like it’s no big deal. Only one breath separates the living from the dead.
Watch the 1951 classic “On the Beach,” with Gregory Peck and Ava Gardner.
Yes, it’s a classic. I read the book (by Neville Shute) it was based on and really recommend it to anybody who hasn’t read it. Even though you know how the story is going to end right from the first page, the last part of the book really got to me. Couldn’t stop thinking about it for ages afterwards.
From when we used to make good documentaries in Britain, I would also recommend Threads (1984) written by Barry Hines and The War Game (1966) by Peter Watkins.
Both really bring home the reality of nuclear war. From what I know, the awful BBC actually self-censored itself and stopped the public from seeing The War Game for over 20 years.
That’s another problem. The idiots in Washington are playing poker, while everybody else is playing Chess.
Regardless of how Russia defeats the Ukraine, the management of the ethnically Ukrainian rump is problematic going forward. If this leads to Somaliation of the Ukraine, the US will use it for endless recruiting of anti-russian paramilitaries. Any way you slice it, it is a long term thorn in the side of Russia. I agree though that Russia is in good shape to defeat the conventional Ukrainian forces.
Long term thorn on the side too. Politics is always in flux and society is never constant. As politicians come and go, new generations are born and grow up, how long can the policy of endless recruiting of anti-Russian paramilitaries last? IMO, sooner or later people will get tired of constant violence and prefer to live normal lives. They don’t want to be burdened by the problems of previous generations, they have enough of their own. Especially if people perceive such problems as being responsible for their lives getting tougher and tougher (we already see it today in Europe). I see that the longer game actually favors Russia, not the around way around.
If you look at the case of Chechnya in the past, the case of Ukraine will be stabilized without the 1-3 mobilization forces and Bandera leadership in the future.
If the chechens are anything to go by, then maybe there’s another ready for the rump of Ukraine
According to Gonzalo Lira, who has been observing the conflict unfold from within Ukraine itself, the Russians will sweep across the country and drive the neo-Nazi elements of the Ukrainian army to the Western part of Ukraine, which was once part of Poland, and then simply invite the Poles to come in and take it over. Then the troublesome anti-Russian elements will become Poland’s problem, turning that part of Ukraine into what he calls “Poland’s Vietnam”.
Gonzalo Lira is insane. Basically, he likes to hear himself speak, and anytime he gets on a platform, that is all he does. He has been completely wrong on almost every point so far. I used to listen to the Duran, and New Atlas, and etc, all saying this war was already over, just waiting for the Fat Lady (not Lizzo and her glass flute, btw) to sing. They were all wrong, because they were and are too personally involved to see things from a strategic, non-aligned perspective. I believe that this war has turned into a quagmire that will never move much past the lines we see today. Ukraine is too strong and well-informed by Western Intelligence about Russian force movements for the Russians to achieve any type of major tactical or strategic suprise, and the Russians are too powerful for the Ukrainians to push back in any meaningful way. This is what it is – not rooting for one side or the other because that clouds one’s rational, critical-thinking processes, and inhibits the ability to look at the big picture. In Vietnam, the US was the overwhelmingly powerful combatant, but a stasis was achieved early on that never changed though the lines may have moved back and forth. Russia will never take Odessa, or Kharkov, or Dniepro or move west much farther than where they are now – I suppose Bakhmut may be the last hurrah for either side.
“I believe that this war has turned into a quagmire that will never move much past the lines we see today.”
I agree with you the conflict has turned into a quagmire but not for Russia. Russia hoped for a negotiated settlement, like happened in the Russo Georgian war. Russia doesn’t want all of Ukraine, like it didn’t want all of Georgia. Russia wanted Georgia to stop its attacks on the South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions and it achieved that.
Ukraine isn’t strong, and its leadership would seek a settlement or fall, if not for the US and NATO support.
The question is, how long will the US continue to support the Ukrainian leadership? How much more money and effort will the US and NATO dump into the Ukrainian quagmire? Using history as a guide, the US wasted 20 years in Afghanistan, with the only winners being the big western defense contractors, their think tanks and bought off politicians. It might be a long time, or maybe not, if Ukrainian losses continue to accrue at a rapid pace.
ha ha Prepare to be proven wrong.
What is NATO going to do? What is Ukraine going to fire at advancing Russians when their ammo runs out and NATO can’t deliver anymore? Ukraine can be informed up to their eye balls on Russian movements and simply watch them happen and die if their supply dwindles and what little re-supply is available is interrupted and destroyed by Russia.
Ukraine is not Vietnam. Ukraine has plains where it is difficult to hide. Vietnam had jungle easy to hide in. That’s why the US used defoliant in Vietnam. They were desperate to uncover the hiding places. One as only to look at the video of Ukraine to see the point.
I would not draw too strong a parallel between Ukraine and Vietnam.
hahahaha any bet you make on your opinion you will lose js
Gonzalo Lira is a writer and thus has a propensity for fanciful narratives. These also have value as extreme scenarios. To be frank, some proposals from RAND seemed just as outlandish not so long ago. That said, I believe there is zero evidence that Russia want, needs or intends to move pass Dniepro river, for multiple reasons.
While Ukraine, with NATO accelerator and troops was taking bunch of small settlements OUTSIDE regions that participated in referenda, Russia stared to mobilize. Fact, it probably should have done so in June. Russians tend to fall back when facing challenge that they did not anticipate only to regroup; examples aplenty Polish 400yrs ago burned Moscow, Napoleon ca 200 yrs ago did the same, and Hitler not so long ago almost reached Moscow. And yet, we are still talking about Russia. Thus, purely on basis of historical trend, Ukraine is probably going to loose even more if its territory once new forces materialize. The tragedy is that Ukraine’s leadership is so inexperienced that are being eaten for lunch by the much bigger fish. Note: 2019, after election Ukraine’s president, current one, immediately dissolved the parliament and called snap elections. 80% of elected reps had zero political experience came from NGOs, charities or Western/ private business & were under 40. In other words, perfect. Oh, they also waived when asked their constitutional right to immunity. In a word, US State Department’s dream state.
“Somaliation” higly depend on the average birth rate in the country.
Somalia has what? 4 to 5 kids per woman? That mean 1 son to get the job of his father, the others will have nothing and before dying will get some good “job” within the militia or pirate gang to plunder. Dying or get some money.
And 404? The lowest birth rate of “western countiers”.
That means: One son. Will this son fight in a Guerilla war or move to EU or Russis to get a much wanted job?
I think the answer is clear.
You will have allways some fanatics but nothing in the near of Guerilla war.
Russia’s military activity in Belarus may be part of preparation for a drive southward to divide Ukraine in two somewhere between Kiev and Lvov, thus putting Russia in a position to cut off most of Ukraine from Western supplies. This might take place in conjunction with a Russian winter offensive on Nikolaev and on to Odessa and Transniestria, where the two forces could join up.
Russia knows the west will escalate further, so they do what has to be done, regardless how the west will see that. It is in Russia’s best interest anyway. They can do it weather they have to or want to. Taking half of Ukraine was already a fact a few weeks ago, when the west gave Ukraine relatively longer range weapons.
The next big Russian offensive will finish Ukrainians and brake them. Zelensky will cry like he always does. He doesn’t want peace, that is what will happen. This already became a fact too, since October 10’th. Shelling new Russian territory, very bad idea.
No. Russia has to take all of it. All of it.
A new Congress might decide to investigate Biden and the billions transferred to the Ukraine.
Not likely at all. Don’t kid yourself. If McTurtle is still leading the Repubs in the Senate, not a goddamn thing will be seriously investigated. He is almost as corrupt as Biden so he wants no one opening Pandora’s box.
Maybe the Republicans will ditch him for a new Speaker?
The Trump Republicans who have a good chance of winning could withhold their votes until a speaker they approve of is brought in. They could “force the vote”.
Speaker need not be a Congressperson. Trump for speaker–impeach Biden and Kamala (although need 67 in the Senate for conviction and removal and there’s the RINOS.. a pity it’s not on
“I’m shocked…SHOCKED there is gambling in this casino!”
It will never happen. Those billions? “And it’s gone.”
Hello Larry. Excellent piece as always. I do have a question for you that I hope that you will address in some way, perhaps a future piece. The massing of troops on the Belarus border could be providing NATO the excuse to enter the conflict. Ukraine could invite Poland or other NATO countries to come to their aid, just like Syria did when it invited Russia into the conflict there. This was discussed by Alex Christoforou of the Duran today. I would like your opinion whether you think this is likely and how this might change the dynamics of the conflict.
There is an important difference between “wanting” to do something and “being able” to do something. NATO has limited capabilities. If NATO decides to attack then all NATO bases in Europe are targets. This would certainly ramp up and broaden the war, but NATO lacks the industrial and economic base to sustain such a conflict.
Here, in US-occupied Europe, the MSM news outlets are floating out now that NATO might impose a No Fly Zone in order to stave off the impending disaster for Zelensky and friends. Little do they mention that if that were ever to go into effect, every NATO airfield in Europe becomes a legitimate target for Russia and their allied forces with all military means at their disposal.
Escalate. Escalate. All you get is another bridge too far.
The United States military (called mercenaries) are already in the Ukraine. As are NATO mercenaries from practically all western nations. Have been since 2014.
Recent videos show Americans, dressed in Ukrainian Military Forces unforms on the battlefield, calmly going about their business.
Direct military intervention means nothing to these people.
The United States and the west picked up where Germany left off after 1945, treating Russia and the Russian people as sub-humans. So much for knowing your enemy.
NATO is in the same boat as Russia. NATO is just more desperate. “Pushed into a corner and the nukes will fly,” applies to all parties. Everything becomes an existential threat when you’re a nuclear power. This thing is going to get out of control.
If all NATO bases become targets, so will Russia’s bases (and much more) become targets for NATO’s and the US’s enormous air power. This is madness.
They can invite Poland, and Poland can respond; but if they do, because they are engaging Russia of their own accord rather than being attacked, Art. 5 cannot be invoked. NATO is by charter a defensive only alliance, yeah I know, “Tell that to Qadhafi (or Milosevic).” Also a close reading of Art 5 shows that no member of NATO is legally required to go to war even if another member is attacked but merely to respond as they think “necessary” is the wording, I think.
I believe you are correct. NATO does not supercede the will of the people of the member nations. That would be tantamount to removing a nations sovereignty.
The “will of the people” mean zip. “The Will of the People” is S-o-o-o-o old narrative.
Agreed. I should have qualified that with, “on paper”.
Ukraine is not Vietnam. Ukraine has plains where it is difficult to hide. Vietnam had jungle easy to hide in. That’s why the US used defoliant in Vietnam. They were desperate to uncover the hiding places. One as only to look at the video of Ukraine to see the point.
I would not draw too strong a parallel between Ukraine and Vietnam.
Hello Larry. looking at the panorama and how the events are developing, don’t you think that when nato and the united states are faced with a total defeat of ukraine, they can launch a false flag attack with a tactical nuclear weapon? it is very good to read you. Greetings.
This is an opinion I’ve read as well. That would be a perfect plan for the US when Ukraine is defeated:
– No more support to Kiev (knowing the economic situation in both US and EU)
– Totally collapse the EU (already done economically + dealing with local “nuclear winter”)
– Put responsibility on Russia (False Flag)
– Deliver a nice leaving present to Russia (i.e. Chernobyl revival)
This is why battlefield nuclear weapons have not been used.
https://youtu.be/XT5jo7aZzTw
A 10kt detonation IIRC…
A trifle according to some – used to bring down the WTC towers according to others — though its signature is difficult to miss. The problem with escalation is not simply finding a U.S. off-ramp…
The real question is who, in the Brandon administration, is steering?
Klain?
They could do that. And Russia could respond by taking out London, DC, NYC, Brussels, & anyone else they decided was the responsible party. Hello General Poseiden & General Sarmat.
Or they could use their new weapons, never before seen, based on new physics, causing EMP destruction wherever. No internet, no phone, no computer-dependent transport, no gps, no power, no water, no sewage, etc.
Excellent update, Larry. I am particularly intrigued by what is happening on the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The Ukrainians have blown bridges and placed obstacles and land mines. It would seem they are spooked about a land invasion.
Interesting also what cards NATO has left to play. Perhaps the reason for the nuclear rhetoric coming from the West in response to fabricated threats Putin never made. I suspect as you say, NATO has no more cards left to play. To paraphrase the John Prine song, they’re coming on big ‘cause they’re feeling small,
Elial, the Belarus situation is a real tell. The Russian troop buildup is probably a response to the NATO nuclear exercises in the Baltic, which the Russians see as a cover for something dangerous – probably internally focused – directed toward Minsk. But it happens to be the same tactic employed by the Russians in March, so the Ukrainians are freaked out, especially after the infrastructure attacks. I believe it will ultimately be used as a fixing force as Russian troops move in from Bryansk and Kursk toward Kiev to create a panic refugee crisis westward toward Poland. The last one was a trial run at the end of winter; this one will be the real deal at the start of it.
I find your scenario really interesting, with one exception. What is it with this fascination with Russian Winter offensives? A Russian winter is the worst. Just ask Napoleon. Just ask Hitler. And this business about Russia loving to fight in Russian Winters is pure myth; that they are in their element. Pure Propaganda. Russians freeze to death just like the rest of us do, even if you are warming your hands over a battlefield nuclear campfire. That being said: Germany just shipped tons of winter gear to the Ukrainians. Maybe it’s just German sense of humor and irony at play here.
I’ve been of the opinion from the start that taking Kiev is vital. It will cause the collapse of the Ukrainian Eastern forces which will become next to impossible to reinforce and resupply. It should have been taken in March after building up forces in Gostomel, and now it will be more difficult to retake the same territory captured in February than it was then because the Ukranazis have been fortifying it. However, it is doable and necessary. If the idea is to make the nazi regime beg for peace under Russian imposed conditions, driving it out of its (de jure) capital is absolutely a requirement too.
Taking Kiev is to be avoided. Way too much street fighting. Let the government there collapse on its own. But would be a good way to fix UKR troops while Russia secures other areas.
The Russians have advantage when Uk’s army volunteer to leave their positions to come out into the open and congregate in a cauldron. Uk’s don’t seem to mind losing hundreds or thousands of troops in a battle for no gain and many of their own casualties without inflicting harm on the opponent. If there are precedents for this kind of combat I have never heard of them. The art of self sacrifice is valid if you have some that will die to save the rest. But to lose more than your opponent by design?
It is inconceivable.
You can build a fortified line all you like, but if you cant man it, it’s a terrain obstacle not a military one.
The MSN claims the RAF is hemmorging manpower, but the UFU can pretty much spam fresh units at will. False of course, they’ve stripped many regions of men & arms to give impetus to their offensives.
The AUF mass their troops on the Belarus border they’re denying reinforcements to the south & east, or drawing those forces down. Whilst Russian troop levels remain constant as they’re deployed non-commited/rotated forces.
This is were the Russian 4/5 manpower advantage in *actual* population comes into play. They’ve only partly called up reservists (with teething problems).
Ukraine has done waves of mobilization from a shrinking population-base as millions have fled the country or now live Russian controlled regions.
So, how does NATO fragment, Larry? Which nations are most likely to take the actions that begin that process and what do you forsee those actions to be?
I think it will start with Germany. The economic situation there will force a shift in the politics.
Indeed. DC runs NATO but Germany is the only member (or of the EU for that matter) that really has veto power.
The problem for Germany is that they are the most heavily occupied by US forces. Another issue, now the Brandon has blown up Nordstream, is that peace with Russia won’t be able to turn the economic situation around any time soon. There’s no evidence that much long-term thinking is going on in Berlin, or anywhere else in Europe.
Agree about no long term thinking but perhaps if the economic situation is dire enough, there won’t be a choice.
Kicking NATO out of Germany and reestablishing energy ties with Russia might take some time but a cold winter may give Germans the resolve, especially with ‘allies’ that destroy pipelines. The question is whether the US is seriously going to tell the world that it’s going to sanction Germany just for leaving NATO and buying gas.
It requires some leadership that represents Germany though rather than US interests.
Right now the whole thing looks like a failed attack on Russia that’s pivoting into a smash and grab. Smash Ukraine, take advantage of financial situation to pick up the useful agricultural land, real estate and industrial capacity of Europe. Whatever is too expensive to maintain in Europe will be shipped over to the US
Protests, riots, chaos, new governments, it’s all possible. But there will be no changes. That would only be possible if there was a strong force in Germany that would leave NATO and the EU and end the colonial status. But this would be prevented by the USA with extreme force. But it will not even come that far. Since 1945 German culture and historiography has been destroyed. All parties, mainstream media, boardrooms of business enterprises, all elites have been domesticated into obedience. The population is psychologically exhausted from 2.5 years of Corona Bullshit. The brainwashing since 1945 has eliminated the ability and willingness of the majority to think. Society has been deeply divided by the transatlantic NGOs. The us NGOs are like cancer. The metastases permeate all areas of society.
Agreed – Germany is unlikely to dramatically change course.
My guess is the US will be first to radically change – 40% of the population believes a civil war is likely.
De-dollarization is very much accelerating. Might take 5-7 years, but once the dollar ceases to be used by 87% of the world, then economic collapse will soon follow.
Correct. You can study this very well with the example of the Roman Empire. Its downfall had its source in Rome itself. The vassals and colonized immediately took advantage of this weakness. The USA may benefit until now. However, it is at the expense of its own and foreign majority. In the USA the conflicts and contradictions come to a head more and more.
As soon as the US dollar loses its global significance, the internal problems will explode. Why, for example, is Saudi Arabia flirting with leaving the U.S. dollar? Because the idiots in the USA demonstrated how quickly the “beautiful” dollars are stolen for other countries and companies. The main business partner is now China. They also get armaments from Russia and China. Very many countries and business partners are worried about this.
As soon as the unrest in Central Asia can be brought under control, then many economies can benefit from the gigantic Eurasian economic projects. What does the USA have to offer the world? Chaos, terrorism, war, destruction. The West is building nothing. They plunder. They corrupt the national oligarchs. But when they lose their power, the game is over.
Seems to me you are living in Germany. I am, and I agree. The root for this mailaise of our‘s is something that happened to Germany in 1945: »unconditional surrender«. Since then we have no nation, no national interests, no ruling class that knows about it. The only thing they want is to dissolve what is left of Germany into … »Europe«, better: EU
If you want to understand the emergence of the U.S. empire and its seizure of power over Europe, you have to go far back in history. All the way back to the 19th century. When the decline of the British Empire led to conflict with German economic competition and WW1 and WW2 were planned. This was even before Hitler. It’s all written in declassified documents in the UK and the US. Historian Wolfgang Effenberger and former Secretary of State Willy Wimmer based their book only on these documents. “Return of the Hasardeurs.” The mainstream media always tell us stories isolated from each other. But history is in fact a constant flow. World War 1, World War 2, the Cold War, the expansion of NATO, and what is happening today all fit into one epoch. This epoch ends only now.
Jörg,
The social and economic fissures in Germany are tiny compared to the situation in the US.
That‘s why my guess is US will collapse or radically change before Europe
No we have/ had “soccer” and our “Wirtschaftswunder”
surprinsigly one can hear unheard of comments on mainstream TV in France alike in this eco TV show where some well known economists are now suggesting that the Frexit may be the only option. And it doesn’t spark outrages like it would have 5 years ago.
Germany (and therefore Europe) will never be energy secure until they have pipelines from Russia that don’t traverse a third country, before crossing German borders.
Ocean pipelines obviously don’t meet that criteria.
Scenario.
Poland invades/is invited into Ukraine to assist (a de-facto declaration of war on Russia & allies)
In response Belarus/Russia head south through Ukraine in order to cut Ukraine off from Poland. They then turn west and carve a slice out of Poland on their way to the German border.
Russia agrees to an eventual retreat from Poland, leaving a cordon sanitaire (to be managed by Germany) who probably ending up calling it Upper Upper Silesia.
I have a better idea. Let Germany and Russia take Poland. Divide Poland up. Half and Half. It will be like old times again. Add a mutual defense treaty. Then build another gas pipeline, this time over dry land, call it “Nord Stream 3.” “Nord Stream.” Great name. Why let it go to waste. Taking Poland out (of the equation) would cause all kinds of panic in the Ukraine. Not to mention the west. Well. Okay. I mentioned it.
It is preposterous for Germany to continue support for NATO after the international terrorist attack by NATO members US, UK and Poland of Nord Stream, against one of their own members, Germany.
Even during German reunification in the 1990s, less than one in five West Germans supported NATO membership for a unified Germany, and the Americans feared a process that could end in US withdrawal from Europe.
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-s-unlikely-diplomatic-triumph-an-inside-look-at-the-reunification-negotiations-a-719848.html
I don’t know. Germans have a keenly developed sense of humor. The last time Germany took revenge was for World War 1, and that was World War II.
After destroying Nord Stream 1 and 2, those responsible for declaring war on Germany — the United States, the British Empire (that never dies), Sweden, Denmark, Poland and others — might just want to put some distance between themselves and Germany. You just gave another reason for World War 3 (which has already started).
“No one is a failure who has friends.” Germany has no friends. Who is going to tell Germany that? And if they already know? Well. Hitler didn’t have any friends. Hitler surrounded himself with people who also had no friends. And look what that got the world.
Larry, again much respect for your work. I was US Army in Trier. Went to Defense Language Institute and served as a liaison for a bit. Do NOT underestimate the sheer pigheaded stupidity of the Germans. They will ride this horse until they don’t have a factory open. Germans have massive “daddy” issues. They want the government to rule them. Which from Bismarck to Hitler explains a thing or three.
Thanks Curt. I do not doubt you nor your experience. Appreciate you sharing your insight.
True, but Germany has over 35,000 well armed US troops on its soil, + nukes. One may assume that the crazies in the US will not hesitate to use them if Germany seems tries to get off the reservation.
Slowly at first, then all of a sudden. The whole show backing Zelensky was contrived and shallow to begin win, and once a narrative is created which allows an exit from an uncomfortable and untenable position pretending to love Ukraine and its cokehead green shirt dictator, the rush for the door will commence. But it will take some grooming and deft foreshadowing to save as much Western face as possible. And it will take the same writers who who wrote the West into this mess to write us out of it.
We may not have the weapons to back up our words, but we have the words to back our weapons out. That’s what I’m counting on, anyway. Certainly not common sense, perspective and statesmanship in the West.
And might I say that Tulsi Gabbard has more balls than most of the men in either the Democrat or Republican party.
Hear hear. It’s Tulsi, not AOC, whom I’d like to date 🙂
I hope her balls are purely metaphorical. In the immortal words of Heath Ledger, ‘Ah ain’t queer.’
Looking forward to Peter Bergen at CNN, many at Wall Street Journal explaining how Russia is on its heels and losing badly(getting their a@@ kicked). This is serious – bit of levity is gained by keeping up with the BS. Russia could take Alaska, Thule AF Base in Greenland, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont and it would
be spun Russia is on the ropes.
Your mention of Russia taking NH where I live (in the insane rhetoric of America’s media ‘elite’, that is) set my heart pounding faster for a second or two. Just think of the possibilities: overnight we exchange the corrupt dementia patient for an authentic statesman and his bimbo mouthpiece for Marya Zakharova, the dimwit Jake Sullivan for Medvedev, and Blundering Tony Blinken for Lavrov!!! And, who knows what might eventually happen after that? Visions of the distaff dipsomaniacs from upstate NY and San Francisco being tortured in the bowels of the Lubyanka begin to dance in my head! (Be still, foolish heart!)
OMG, you just made my day. ROFL
I think most of the “rational actors” (to borrow a term now dear to our President) already know all this, this is why most of the world silently approves of (or doesn’t disapprove of) Russia’s steps in this SMO.
The problem is that the collective west does not have an off-ramp and that the alternative is basically becoming at best a 2nd rate player on the world stage. Once someone is exposed as not being powerful anymore, everyone will start taking diplomatic/economic potshots at them or at the very least ignoring them. Is this something EU/USA/UK can tolerate after a century of dominance and exploitation of everyone else?
Can the west just go from “do as I say” to being largely irrelevant? And what about internal pressures that have been created by sanctions and decades of promoting incompetence, printing money, pandering to corporations and drowning its own population in ever increasing debt while all the knowledge/skills were sold/lost to cheaper places?
First you stop making/doing stuff and then you lose the knowledge to make/do stuff. This is why we are now just “learning” that “real war” requires much more ammunition etc. It’s like we were just born yesterday and are 7 years old and are realizing the basic truths of life.
Turns out living in the world of Netflix/Youtube/Tik-tok/Facebook etc. has nothing to do with living in reality – as someone 😉 (in)famously said – “you cannot eat money and you cannot eat social media” (paraphrased). The whole western way of life is in danger of peril just by virtue of becoming irrelevant and this is going to be impossible for the leaders of the western world to acknowledge/accept/walk away from. See, Soviet Union may have been an “empire” but it is not like it’s citizens indulged, spent frivolously, had 2nd, 3rd and 4th homes all over the place, drove $100k trucks with $200k 5th wheels just for fun etc. etc. and losing all that was the end of the world in 1990s. Nay, that would be us in America today where 1% increase in interest rate means recession and 2% means depression….
“Can the west just go from “do as I say” to being largely irrelevant?”
The question is, at this stage of the game, do they have a choice?
Spot on….
I read that Biden is making new moves toward Venezuela for energy deals.
Ha! Will he be speaking to Juan Guaido (“the REAL president”) or Maduro? All sanctions will have to be lifted.
I hope Maduro doesn’t take the bait. Making deals with the U.S. is like Charlie Brown playing kick the football with Lucy. She can NEVER be trusted.
Nice,
I’ve making that joke elsewhere, *real* subversive comics & sartists not the systemic creatures on TV now. Would make hay with the spectacle of a senile Biden calling private Venezuelan citizens to try negotiate an oil deal.
To the bemusement of the immensely popular & beloved president Guido.
Maduro. The only reason Veneziela is on the sanctions list is because Venezuela forced the renegotiation of oil contracts with Western oil companies. Ask the average American why Venezuela is on the sanctions list or what threat Venezuela poses? And their brain becomes necrotic tissue as they can not answer. They do not know why.
As for why American oligarchs and their political pets are behaving the way they are? Leo Strauss’ political philosophy practiced by Zio-Nazis such as Nuland, Kagan, Blankenship, etc. al.
The philosophy is the Zionis version of Nazi fascism, “do to them before they do to us”, which includes practices of Apartheid, slow genocide of Palestinians in ghettos, Israeli Lebensraum (from the Nabka to snatching Palestinian land in West Bank), etc.
The problems in US leadership have much to do with Zio-Nazis in Tel Aviv who also incorporate Leo Strauss’ philosophy. After 1948, Zio-Nazis even stole the land of Jewish families who had lived in Isreal-Palestine for 2000 years. Why? Because the original Jewish inhabitants did “not fight to free Israel for all those years”. Zionists from Europe hate those Jews enough to steal their land to, after 1948. How do I know this? Jewish friends whose families had their lands stolen by European Zionists.
Leo Strauss, look him up. Basically, the Zionist version of Hitler. Who believed that in order to prevent the rise of another Hitler? Become like Hitler, first… to suppress all rivals.
As for Venezuela? The Nulands and Blinkens and Kagans and Congress Critters in the pay of AIPAC? Well, Maduro responded to those desperate pleas by proposing to resurrect cash payments and a prior oil exchange deal with Latin American countries that was previously opposed by American oligarchs as not benefitting their bank accounts.
Sir Fleming,
Let me reiterate my editorial position: I think you are a liar and a coward, a ‘gutless wonder.’
However, that will not prevent me from moderating a fair debate between you and Larry Johnson who has written another brilliant piece here: https://sonar21.com/there-is-no-single-war-in-ukraine-and-nato-is-in-trouble/
I fear you may decline my debate challenge so let me offer some bona fides:
I once interviewed Lord Christopher Monckton: https://rebelarmy.com/audio/RFM-2009-10-28-ChristopherMonckton.mp3
I once interviewed Nick Griffin: https://rebelarmy.com/audio/RFM-2010-08-11-NickGriffin.mp3
I would be as respectful towards you as I was towards Lord Monckton and Nick Griffin above.
Will you debate Larry Johnson on Radio Free Mississippi?
Best regards,
Jim Giles
Radio Free Mississippi
P.S. Adm. Fallon, Larry Johnson is a stud horse, ain’t he?
Agree with all points in your post. Thank you for your continued updates and insights. Any thoughts or “spider senses” about upcoming “Steadfast Noon” “drill”? Most of my thoughts are that it’s a bunch of hoopla show for NATO pomp & glory of themselves… but dang, after NS 1 & 2, Crimea, Turkstream, etc… I don’t know. Anyways, some “actor” in this 14 nation theater may want to assure NATO doesn’t have an option to deal with their own nation in crisis… like pulling the cord on Germany. Just saying if UKs in the mix, anything’s possible. Would love to hear from your perspective.
One wonders at what point does this become clear to most in a way that defies any narrative control. The western spin is so relentlessly fantastical and deluded, and media courtiers are more invested in this conflict than in any thing we’ve ever seen–even more than the run up to Gulf War 2.0 invasion. It will be very very difficult to hit the brakes on this and change the subject after this year long, pro Ukraine jerk fest(–though perhaps domestic squabbles over the election/Trump will provide cover. ) Still, this is a major major media catastrophe. What will make Russia’s end game un-Spinnable? Will the USA culture sphere be able to process just how badly America and Europe lost this or will they remain rationally quarantined like some teenage runaway cheerfully breeding with all the destitute hangerson in some coked-out 1960s Los Angeles hippie cult ? 99% of public affairs PhDs and think tank analysts and talking heads cant even extrapolate the ramifications of Saudi Arabia turning to Russia and the SCO. Soon to buy arms from Russia no doubt. I mean this is a geopolitical and historical earthquake How can they miss this? But if they missed this, what could possibly make it obvious?
The US elites will deal with it by creating another crisis – this time in the US. Say, a crusade to “save democracy” – aka a civil war.
well if my sister is any example her response to me about US interventions is, “I just want to be Hidi”. She like so many people I know do not want to really know what is going on. I was taking a hike and started chatting with a lady who grew up in Berkeley and was active in all the protests over the war in Vietnam, As we talked she lamented the protests in HK. I pointed out to her since 1991 the US has used military force 412 times! This is from our own congress. It includes cia projects like HK.
I think what I have seen in my time as a liberal anti war person, is the people I thought who really cared about what our country is doing, just want to feel good. So they sometimes go and hold signs. They do not acknowledge that their own politicians vote for this. They vote for these same politicians because they have a “D” next to their name! They have also fallen for longtime CIA projects around the world. They refuse to talk to conservatives, who where I live have to deal with climate issues on a regular basis and are brilliant at understanding climate and corporatism. I do no not call myself any label any more having watched the labels all be bought out. I sadly rarely vote anymore maybe a local election.
My first comment on this site, just to show my admiration and the privilege to be able to read your articles. Thanks for these and for much more to come.
It’s elites have driven the West’s bus into a ditch. What we’re watching now is them spinning their wheels frantically looking for a way out, for themselves at least.
They’ll blow a tire or a gasket soon. Then the real fun starts.
Many thanks for all your contributions to American society Larry. If you may allow me to be trite: Logistics Logistics Logistics. This was true in Alexander’s time onward to today (and of course the aforementioned was a tactical genius and a true hero on the battlefield, but the campaign’s ultimate success or failure hinged on Logistics and control of supply lines.)
You are spot on.
A France 24 program had an EU panel discuss the missile attacks. If you think our gov’t is full of woke elite lying progressives the EU is 10 x worse. I didn’t realize that before. Putin is correct this is a world war against 2 systems.
There was the usual soup of child playgrounds hit (Russia evidently wastes million dollar cruise missiles on that kind of target). Then in terms of the electricity they produced a female Hindu UN legal type from the world court she determined that striking an electric grid was a war crime because it terrorized civilians.
Biden and Polish pm Morawiecki are in trouble for Nordstream. Truss ok’d the Kirsch bridge and Stoltenberg Ok’d targeting Himars on Energodar . But they are all safe because the EU says Russia did all of them. Russia has to win this to save us from these types.
Is this the same Brad Patton who was posting on Saker last month?
The real danger IMO is that the West begins to believe its own BS – the adage of a lie repeated many times. If they think Russia is weak, or timid, or losing they will keep pushing. The need a cold splash of water as a sharpe reminder of reality from time to time.
You answered the question I’ve been struggling with = Are these people lying ? (they know better) when they say Russia is shelling Energodar (they kept showing pictures of collapsed structures on a car). You have to be correct. But is really appalling because so many believe the lies all the 4 star generals etc… With out the internet we might be the same — since Newsmax and Breitbart recycle radio Zelenzki as the truth. Amazing and so depressingly frustrating.
Brad Patton, The truth of what’s really happening on the ground in the Donbass has played out twice now.
1) The referendums. The fact that there was an overwhelming win in favour of joining the Russian Federation reinforces the Ukrainian POW and civilian testimonies that the Ukrainian/azov fighters are the ones deliberately shelling the civilians and terrorizing them. It doesn’t matter how the media spins the story to implicate the Russians…. The reality of whose really to blame was evident by the results of the votes. I saw videos from independent journalists and no one was held at gunpoint.
2) Russia launched between 100 to 200 missiles on Monday and around 14 civilian casualties died. This further confirms point 1 above regarding who is guilty of acts of terrorism and war crimes since 24th February when the SMO started (not to mention the civil war which has been in effect since 2014). Why would the Russians randomly target their own ethnic Russian and pro-Russian population in the Donbass (the very people who are voting to join the Russian Federation) YET, strike the pro-Ukrainian cities/areas where a very brainwashed and hostile population reside and only kill around 14 people? And as Larry points out, “Ukraine’s own anti-missile system failed to intercept the Russian targets and then fell to earth and hit apartments and schools” so not all 14 were casualties from Russian strikes.
Those who ask questions, do research without judgement, use common-sense, and possibly even follow their intuition know the truth 🙂
Unfortunately, ignorance and hatred are the new pandemic. The only way to silence the truth from ever surfacing would be nuclear war. Possibly why Zelensky keeps pushing for one, or attempting to create one by shelling the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. The biggest concentration of witnesses reside in and around Zaporizhzhia.
There are those that actually believe in the propaganda and those that actually know Ukraine is not “winning”. Hope however, is the new Western weapon. It’s the carrot motivating the donkey (people) to keep moving forward (in their support of the conflict). The message to the people is that “Ukraine is winning…. we just need to give them more weapons and monetary aid… they’ve almost eliminated the Russian threat, they’re very close now to defeating the enemy…. Russia is on the verge of running out of missiles and ammo…. just a little more support and we’ll win”.
“Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine.”
Would that it were so, but I am afraid that the GOP is in complete lockstep with the Democrats in this monumental folly, and they have been mesmerized by the massive bipartisan propaganda machine they helped to create. It’s as if there’s a sort of satisfaction and warm feeling a lot of Republicans get in being on the same team as their political opponents in hating Putin and Russia.
I won’t go so far as to call it Stockholm Syndrome, but there is a certain awe on the right at how the Democrats have ruthlessly taken power and cracked down hard on their opposition. The GOP is genuinely afraid of the Democrats now. Too many of them would rather join the Democrats than fight them, and too many of them hate conservatives for calling them out. They would rather take the scraps of power tossed to them than take a stand against the depravity of Zelensky and his zombified Ukraine.
But I think Putin knows this now, and he is not counting on sanity and responsibility to prevail in the US Congress. He’s got things things to do, and none of them involve the posturing, self-important mediocrities in Congress, the White House and the Pentagon. The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.
The GOP is more afraid of Trump than spineless dems.
They hate Trump with a white-hot fury because he exposed them as cowards at best and collaborators at worst in dealing with the leftist onslaught. They are bipartisan bottoms who flinch when a Democrat raises a hand.
A neighbor wrote a personal letter to Sen. Ted Cruz asking him to quit subsidizing the hapless, genocidal Ukraine.
Cruz responded (paraphrasing, you know)
Rah-Rah.
Lindsay Graham has a big club, and they don’t care that we are not in it.
Not only Hollywood movies there are tonnes of Computer games which by default have unlimited supplies of ammo. All games, you only need to build/produce tanks but not ammo nor fuel.
BTW thanks for your wonderful website.
What is the US and NATO going to do? That is, indeed, the $64 Gazillion question.
My concern, Larry, is that NATO/the US had to know what Russia could do; had to know what reserves they were available. That Russia has been producing lots of missiles, has lots of reserve forces, lots of tanks, arty, air, etc. had to be known. Had. To. Be. You know what US intelligence capabilities are.
I suggested that Belarus would get involved militarily. I suggested Poland would enter UKR too at some point. That was back in March. If I can conceive of such things, then so can anyone with half a brain and a little background. I also said that Russia had committed only a fraction of its military resources. These ideas were scoffed at by people that should know better. Pat Lang and the disingenuous imbecile TTG were two such people. There were others. Why? How are such ideas so far out? if there not far out, what is the point of lying and denying? Again, Russia’s capabilities and resources are fairly well known. Even a dummy with the internet can go to wikipedia and see statistics on Russia’s military, for chrissakes.
Sure, I have come to accept that our mainstream media at this point is basically the old Soviet Pravda model. Total state directed BS. That we live in clown world and everything is a sham for the masses. However, behind the scenes, there are plenty of people who know the truth. Like Iraqi WMD was BS for public consumption. Yet the architects of the invasion knew it was a false pretext and had other devious reasons for pushing the invasion. They turned out to be stupid losers, of course, yet there was an ulterior motive.
So, what is the real end game in Ukraine? It has to be something. I’m not ready to accept that there isn’t one; that it’s all just abject clowns screwing up while high on delusions. I mean they’re probably high on delusions, like the Iraq neocon crowd, but different delusions than the obvious. You know that these things get war gamed. Sure, the war games are often rigged to give the friendly side the warm fuzzies, but they are gamed. So I’m not buying the blind idiots doing what blind idiots do. IMO, there is some clever by half scheme brewing.
My fear is that what the US is seeking is WW3 which would start as NATO v Russia. Of course that would metastasize as NoKo and maybe China take advantage of the US being committed elsewhere and they make their moves. Other countries would become involved. It would be hell on earth, making WW2 look like a cake walk from a US perspective. Short of that, I can’t imagine what the US and NATO are up to. On the other hand, I can’t imagine what kind of maniac cabal could be allowed a green light on WW3. Something isn’t adding up.
To some extent I think it a psychological problem in the minds of all of the baby boomers clinging to power long after they should have retired and enjoyed life. The Pelosi’s, the Kerry’s, the Clintons, the Bidens with all their face lifts and geriatric moments. All becoming more radical with age. What is wrong with those people? It’s like they’re wanting to create one last Woodstock. No peace, love and music though. They left that genre behind long ago. Look at Pat Lang spewing kamikaze bile and hate at Russia. A man who was once a soldier and a scholar gone nuts. There are many others just like him. Like it’s some kind of collective madness among an age group that still wields power, but is past the average expected life span. Covid was a narcissistic frenzy on their part. They knew the young and up and coming were not at risk. The panic was from these old people who knew they were at higher risk and who seem unable to age gracefully and face impending death with grace and dignity and hope for the future of humanity. Sometimes I think they want to take the world with them when they go. Probably that’s all some shoddy pop psychology. Dunno. Like I said, it don’t add up.
I think psychological is the right direction — social media too. It allows the dumbest people to think they are important. Monica Loewenski has 2 million followers. It also escalates anger rapidly because facial expressions and tones are absent. It rewards extreme positions. Even a dried up cow like Pelosi is susceptible. Banal stupidities come out of people like the Obamas. “My daughters are worried about the police.”
I do not understand the hate for Russia in these people but think it similar to Trump syndrome. Here briefly is my theory on this — liberals must promote and be in awe of all PC people. Many of these people a shouting black thug are not likeable so they have to lie to themselves. This consumes a lot of psychological energy as it is repressing anger this later comes out explosively as anger at some target. Trump mocks PC things so is a lightening rod. Essentially the hate they feel for black thugs is directed at him. I don’t think I am far wrong on this — it is why liberals are so full of hate. The Russia haters think Russia stole the election and put Trump in so the anger travels that pathway.
Eric,
I have experienced, in my lifetime and career, too many clues as to what’s going on. Our military changed after Reagan left. Citizen/Soldier was a common theme up until Bush 1. After that, the leadership referred to us as “warriors”. The Soviet Union disintegrated, then PNAC became the only line of thought. Research the original people who wrote it… you’ll get a clue. I was involved in a program that did not exist. Research who the Bolsheviks were. Another clue. It was not a revolution. It was Lenin’s coup who took Moscow with only a Batallion of troops.
Research Frankfurt School. Another clue. Who owns the international banks and massive funds? Another clue. Who owns the media? Another clue. Neither Ukraine nor Russia is our mortal enemy. There are evil people who have been trying to take over the world through a multi-generational plan. Our movement here, and Larry’s part of it, must continue to grow before it’s too late.
Hélas, on est obligés d’arriver à cette conclusion sibylline sur le “QUI” malgré plus d’un demi siècle de matraquage, de conditionnement médiatique et d’interdiction de penser, d’évoquer, d’interroger, de s’informer même. d’anti machin et d’antitruc et de machinphobie. Pourtant les faits et les acteurs sont connus. Plus encore aujourd’hui qu’hier car ils ne se cachent même plus tant ils sont omni protégés et certains que leur règne arrive. Il suffit d’oser relier les fils. Pourtant, une fois cela fait, les solutions sont assez simples pour sauver le monde. Ne serait-ce que “dire”. et..Je n’ai pas dit le MOT.
Eric, that retired officers forum called Turcopolier has the alacrity of an ant climbing up the leg of an elephant with the intention of rape.
It was a good forum at some point in the past. Even now it’s fun to see posters like Walrus get the Col and that Lithuanian clown all worked up.
I pick on Lang b/c he used to be an exceptional thinker and has a deep background in salient matters – and he appears to me to be a classic example of what happened to so many others. They went crazy overnight. Something about the SMO caused something in their minds to snap. They lost all perspective and all rationality and became vicious to point of accepting self-destruction as a possible consequence of their proposed actions.
You might suggest that Lang and others are simply paid shills for the deep state or for neocons, but I don’t accept that. I think he/they really believe in their righteousness.
Early on Lang had a clear take on what was happening. Pat took some time off for an illness or operation, I can’t remember which. TTG took over for a while, and he is a definite Russaphobe, and when Pat came back he had a completely different take on all matters Russian but hasn’t changed on domestic issues. I suspect either he had a good talking to while on hiatus or someone else writes on foreign issues.
Just want to add, this site is a must read and I recommend to everyone I talk with.
For they sow the wind and they shall reap the whirlwind. 28 out of 30 are terrible odds.
I have fought more than thirty combat simulations in wargames under my own direction for a private defense contract…In every scenario I tested, the Biden Administration slowly gives Ukraine ever more advanced weapons like ATACMS, F-16s, and other platforms that Russia has consistently warned pose a direct military threat…In fact, in 28 of the thirty scenarios I have run since the war began, some sort of nuclear exchange occurs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kiev-offers-white-house-targeting-control-longer-range-weapons
That’s what I’m talking about. They have to know and they have to want it – want it because why? They’re literally insane and incredibly selfish and, in many cases, near the end of their natural life span? Hard to believe that such people could have the final word on the decisions. Maybe they do. I don’t like things that don’t add up. I can’t understand this outside of pathological psychology.
They hate us more than they love their own children. Who is ‘they’? It’s not just whoever has their hand up Biden-meat-puppet’s rectum all the way up to his mouth, flapping his gums in synchronicity with the teleprompter. There is a united anti-European anti-Christian coalition of communists and globalists (international crony cartel corporatists) that uses the authority of Biden’s presidency to provide a thin veneer of legitimacy for their attacks upon Western Civilization.
Our ancestors let the wrong people into what used to be our country. They denationalized us first, then opened our borders to our replacements. It turns out that ‘open’ societies are like some poor victim of a psycho who has had their skin flayed off. Borders are like skin in that they are the first line of a country’s immune system. Nationalism is like a sociological immune system inflammation response, facilitating threat assessment and collective self defense. Those who have neither tribe nor nation are prey animals in a herd of one, easy meat for the cooperative predators who compete against each other inside the control nodes of American civilization for the right to feast first upon broken and defenseless Heritage America.
Germany (and therefore Europe) will never be secure until they have security of energy. Russia is the cheapest and most reliable supplier.
Security requires land (not marine) based pipelines that do not pass through any 3rd parties after leaving Russia.
Scenario
Russia pushed East creating waves of refugees that overwhelm Poland.
Poland invades/is invited into Ukraine to protect itself/manage refugees (an effective declaration of war against Russia & allies)
In response Belarus/Russia invade Ukraine, heading South to seal the Ukraine/Poland Border.
The allies then turn West continuing along the Polish border until they reach Germany.
After ceasefire negotiations Russia agrees to leave Poland. The thin strip of formerly Polish land becomes a German managed cordon sanitaire.
Multiple pipelines and railways run through it, joining Germany to Belarus/Russian oil, gas and minerals.
They decide to re-name the area as Upper Upper Silesia.
Larry: This article reminds me of an interaction I had with a Swedish friend who had undergone compulsory military service in his country. When I told him about Arnold Schwarzenegger’s firing of two rifles in both hands in the movies, my friend laughed uproariously. He said the recoil alone will not only make the bullets fly all over the place, but will also result in the guns flying off from your hands. He also said that most rifles can be fired only as either single-shot, or a 3-shot burst. But for that you need to grip the rifle with both hands. And if you want any such gun to fire continuous rounds, you will need to firmly anchor it into the ground using a stand.
Yet another example of how Hollywood fools people.
As a taxpayer, I want my laundered money back
I live in Korea. It was a good time for Korea to live as a colony of the United States except for the IMF in 1997. However, when the two camps are forced to choose between the two camps, the American colony is not attractive to Korea, which has no resources at all.
I’ve recently been listening to a course on the history of WW1. The professor described the utter shock to many Germans after it was announced that Germany had been defeated. Prior to this they were living in a world of propoganda and the trasition to the real world was quite brutal. It will probably be similar for many people after it becomes evident that Ukraine lost the war and the United States is, militarily at least, thrown out of Europe and back across the ocean.
A couple of months ago Lavrov stated that the treaty that was proposed in December will have to be revised due to the situation on the ground. I take that to mean that withdrawal to Western Europe for NATO will not be enough and it will be required to withdrawal from Europe entirely. In other words, it will be dissolved.
What a decadent age we live in. To have illusions is one thing. Everybody has them. It’s quite another to construct, maintain and even try to expand an empire based on illusions and lies. Evidently the people who constructed this propoganda apparatus didnt think that they would be affected by this virtual world and would only use it on the masses.
You don’t need to go back to WWI in order to find fast defeat. Last year USA lost in Afghanistan over night, after winning for 20 years.
After the loss in the Malvinas War – the shocked Argentines would demonstrate in front of the presidential palace and throw (now worthless) coins chanting LIARS LIARS
That‘s akin to what will happen in the US.
Thanks Larry for the good analysis. Yes, that is exactly what worries me. Yesterday Stoltenberg said that if Russia wins, NATO loses. He admitted that it is a war between NATO and Russia. He also said that NATO cannot lose.
That tells me they will resort to massive dirty tricks. I remember the false flag chemical weapons attacks in Syria.
A Russian politician from the Duma wrote it very well. They will either give Ukraine a dirty bomb or detonate a strategic nuclear bomb themselves in a city in western Ukraine. They will blame Russia. Hence Biden’s statements, exactly the same as in Syria. First warn and then it occurs. They will kick Russia out of the UN afterwards, also out of the Security Council. They will force all countries in the world to demonize Russia and remove all bridges with Russia. Russia would be totally isolated and would probably not survive. Then the West would have achieved exactly what it wants. They even suspect that it will happen in October before the elections. And yes, I immediately trust the corrupt US government to do that. They will sacrifice several thousand Ukrainians for this purpose without hesitation. That is the smallest problem.
And how should Russia react then? The whole media power will, of course, beat up on Russia.
I see this scenario at around 90% and will rise if Russia makes further progress.
https://k-politika.ru/tajnye-peregovory-po-ukraine-raskryty-vozmozhnye-scenarii/
Larry, I am very concerned about that. What is your assessment of that scenario? What do you think about it? I would be very interested to know. Thank you very much.
There are a lot of sane people in the world and in the UN who will not JUMP to that conclusion given the US’s penchant for lying and being caught in lies; and given, imo, that most of the world outside the West is sympathetic to Russia’s concern that the US is trying annihilate it and will use a false flag operation to that end.
Chris,
I concur about a possible false flag using a tactical nuke or dirty bomb to blame Russia, because of listening to Ritter who says Russia does not have tactical nukes, and using those is not part of their defense doctrine which is published. They have more destructive nukes and besides, they have other options of the non-nuke variety that can take out every major European city and leave “nato headquarters a smoking hole.” In other words, they don’t believe in killing you just “a little bit” or escalating to get the other side to de-escalate which stems from nato’s doctrine of the 60s, 70s, and 80s. If I hadn’t listened to Ritter’s Ask The Inspector, I would have never known that the “tactical nuke” charge was a lie. I already knew our elites accuse everyone they’re against of doing what they are doing or would do because I can observe it myself.
The Russians don’t even need to launch an attack from Belarus. They can amass as many troops as they like there but never cross the border but the Ukrainians will have to make a choice about whether or not to send forces to the north in case they do. The mere threat of an offensive from the north might be enough to split their forces which would open up the south.
Yep. Tying up troops is what’s it all about.
The plains and prairies are open ground for future killing fields. With satellite imagery and active electronic emission counterdection, there is no place to hide. I’ve for years been trying to make the case to Army that peer Ground Warfare will resemble Naval Warfare. Missiles reign (I include suicide drones, guided artillery, and Air-to-Ground guided bombs here). I concluded that Army is a bunch of dolts who can’t see three feet in front of them. The only places to hide are cities and forests, with ALL active emissions off. There will soon be a day when if you’re detected and ID’d, you’re dead in a couple minutes. The analogy is WWI trench warfare. If you left the trench, your odds of survival were slim.
Peer Warfare will be attrition based (again), with any worthwhile remaining land being taken later… or politically as Russia did in the Eastern oblasts. This turns Clausewitz upside down in that it is no longer all about control of land. It will be about control of resources and defense of the airspace around them.
Bottom line, I agree with Larry in that the back and forth battle lines mean (almost) zero.
Agree completely with this analysis.
“There will soon be a day when if you’re detected and ID’d, you’re dead in a couple minutes.”
Yup. The video of this war that made the most impression my mind so far, was the one Larry posted two or three weeks ago. It was simply two or three minutes of one Russian drone after another destroying with one suicidal descent, mostly enemy armored vehicles, but also some command posts as well – easy as you please.
Is the fixed winged warplane obsolete, at least as far as Peer Warfare is concerned? That’s my question.
I think we might find out here shortly what role the 5th generation fighter has to play in modern conventional warfare, if any.
Conventional warfare in the 21st century. Hell at this point, from what I’m seeing, that’s damn close to being an oxymoron.
I mean come on, Russian artillery batteries hunting a handful of individuals with their spotter drones overhead? How many times have I seen that scenario play out? Plenty. In fact, it seems to be the only aspect of this war where video is readily available.
Did anyone else notice that Russia’s aerospace forces dropped a missile right on the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) front lawn in Kiev with pin point accuracy? If that is not a warning I don’t know what is.
They aimed it a vehicle destroying it, if you view the images closely. Could it be that someone very very important at that organization was taken out??
Yep. They didn’t want to kill everyone inside, because they surely have bunch of spies there.
“Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate”.
I hope you are right. AFAIK the election systems that were used in November 2020 are still in place; e.g. the Dominion machines that flip votes.
It is difficult for me to believe that the Demoncrats and their W.E.F. backers will ever relinquish power now that they have it. Especially because if they did lose power they’d be in a world of hurt even if the Republicans are monumental wussies.
“… Demoncrats and their W.E.F. backers will ever relinquish power …”
I suggest that the capacity for vote fraud for them is a finite resource. Yes, they can cheat anywhere there are traditional Democrat vote fraud operations (any and all major cities) or where states are using electronic voting machines. However, vote fraud is now on the radar. The more they use it, the quicker the legitimacy of the entire system is degraded.
If they cheat too much in the midterms, will it hamper efforts to plausibly enough cheat President Trump (again) in 2024? If they don’t cheat enough in the midterms, will the shellacking they get derail their project to impose upon European civilization a fusion of the insanity of Pol Pot and the Morgenthau Plan?
It’s one reason they are so adamant about importing as many invaders as they can, because they need new voters for their fake democracy to override Heritage Americans in the states where we are not yet a minority. They prefer to rig the system in ways short of brazen vote fraud. However, if they don’t cheat enough during the midterms, they might not be able to convince enough establishment Republican traitors to vote for amnesty in time to register the aliens to vote against Pres. Trump in 2024. Difficult choices for the WEF/Davos crowd & fellow travelers hellbent on destroying European peoples, who are in the beginning stages of realizing we are in an existential war with evil.
Bertolt Brecht called it a long time ago.
The Solution
After the uprising of the 17th June
The Secretary of the Writers Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
Larry, is it possible that Nato simply didn’t know Russia’s arms capability was so far beyond what they are now aware of? Are they just doing anything knowing they have no answers and the financial system is now blowing up- looking for a scapegoat? (hard to do with the US ordering the sanctions that caused it all) Is the EU fear/hatred of Russians who make their life easy so hard to accept, or is their embarrassment is more painful than poverty, freezing and food riots?
There don’t appear to be any outs for the US or EU that their citizens would accept. These are scenarios that may not appear in the training manuals. No one seems to be fast enough on their feet to solve any issue that arises. The capable must be in fear of the cretins to a degree and only cats like you could understand the stress load.
It really seems inconceivable . Is it a Kobayashi Maru moment?
Brian O.,
They may have “known” but they didn’t believe. The entire NATO war was premised on an incorrect assumption that the Russian economy would collapse. They also believed the hype from the manufacturers (with rotating boards with the generals) about the efficacy on the battle field of NATO weapons, which were designed for profitability.
To believe otherwise was to end your career and a lucrative retirement.
Taking off on a point Larry made about the CIA researchers and operators, I saw the same in my little corner. Today I suspect that the most important research is finding out what the boss wants you to say. In short, I think they did believe Russia was weak and poor, Putin an insecure dictator and all that. They thought it and corrupt research proved it. Anyone who tried to say anything else was shut out and silenced. Look, for example, at the reception Stephen Cohen got
US/EU had to confront Russia because it became to powerful economically and military. Russia openly talked about the end of western hegemony. The west targeted Russia for more then 10 years already. They created incidents, blamed them instantly on Russia to isolate them and cover the country with sanctions. Now they use their proxy to weaken Russia.
Yes, they miscalculated everything. The west is run by utter morons. On the other side Russia was already preparing for a standoff, as it was very obvious that the west won’t stop until they get what they want, Russia defeated and broken into pieces ready to be looted for its vast resources. That is why the Russian leadership is talking about an existential threat and they will nuke the west if necessary for that, but only as last resort.
The world is on Russia’s side, as they all can see with their own eyes what is happening in Europe. They all know US/NATO hegemony way too well and they were all waiting for that moment for the west to fall. The fall is coming, there is no way out of it now. Only if US backs off completely and NATO gets resolved or at least goes back to it’s state around 1998 there is a chance they may buy themself more time. Russia will finish EU with cuting off/reducing the flow of their much needed energy resources. They don’t really want that to happen, mainly because the root of all that is the US. OPEC+ was one of many steps. US, instead of repairing their relationship wit UAE, is preparing retaliatory measures. That says it all. They will punish everyone that won’t do as they say. This also goes for NS1 and NS2. Germany is just playing stupid not to be aware who did the sabotage. Hungary is already breaking up with the whole charade inside EU. Someone has to do it.
EU is on the brink of collapse. They are already throwing billions at their economy to save what is left of it. It won’t help. This is basically “helicopter money” and we all know what comes next after that. This is just one of many problems they have. BOE just buckled and returned to QE to save their dead currency again. There is no way out of inflation. It will just get worse. US is about to do the same soon. Their markets are broken beyond repair. Russia and China won’t get affected, thanks to sanctions (mostly financial isolation from the west) and the ongoing trade war. They have pivoted to others and are stable there. Money is a virtual construct. It has no value at all. Products and resources (human/skills/natural) is what will make countries survive. Everything else is just a promise, a lie.
“US/EU had to confront Russia because it became too [sic] powerful economically and militarily [sic].”
Actually, Russia runs a responsible economy. They have very little to debt, compared with the US and EU who have nothing but debt.
The reality here is the US (and what allies are left) is going to invade Russia because they are running out of what Russia has “in shameful abundance” — natural gas, oil, coal, minerals, rare earths, and clean water supplies. Everything the west (just ask Germany) are running out of.
Yes, even both, the west has not so many resources and basically no money (only debt). The debt levels are enormous. US took country after country and looted them. In Syria they do it even openly. Russia is aware of what is going on. This is the final battle. It will end badly for some regions.
US/EU can just go bankrupt. It will only destroy the insane amount of out of thin air created fake money. That’s it. No one will die because of this. Russia and China have amassed a lot of gold over the years. All central banks have done so too. They all know something will have to brake in that ponzi scheme. They all need securities and gold is such a security.
You cannot run an advanced economy on gold, silver, or fiat money, only cheap energy. The cheaper the better. And the world is running out of it. Resource scarcity is much greater than we are being told.
Without natural gas there is no fertilizer production. Without fertilizer we come up short on food production. We already have food shortages.
All wars are resource wars. You cannot eat gold or silver. You cannot run you EV and ICE on gold and silver. All wars are resource wars.
Larry,
Love this quote,
Washington is “learning lessons” from the conflict about ammunition needs in a very powerful war, and that it is “much larger” than expected, said a US military official who requested anonymity.
As if this wasn’t known from WW2 or even the Korean war.
It was willfully unlearned for reasons related to weapons profitability. Unless the incentives change, it will not be “learned” again, either – the system has shown a remarkable resistance to learning from Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan….. as it is not in the systems interest to learn.
“It was willfully unlearned … weapons profitability.”
That’s a part that I don’t understand. How can actual needs go unfulfilled when there is so much staggering waste on frivolity? One would think that defense contractors would kick a few bucks to the appropriate CongressXirs and make an easy case that increasing appropriations for munitions would be a vital security need. $$$$ all round …
They stockpile staggering amounts of small arms ammunition for their growing army of federal goons. Why not artillery shells? How can they not be as profitable? Or is our rot so far gone that we lack the capability to ramp up production?
I’m just curious. I don’t really care that they are short. The less they have the less able they will be to behave badly overseas at a time when card-carrying anti-European anti-Christian communists are running the government, and they sure as hell don’t have any targets here at home at which they need to be firing artillery.
Most of the iPhone’s revenue comes from its premium line.
You tube’s revenue comes from the number of clicks. More than 80-percent of my clicks are mistakes caused by a fat finger. Fake clicks. Fake economy. It’s all about to come home and get really real.
“They stockpile staggering amounts of small arms ammunition for their growing army of federal goons.”
That’s because the federal goons know what’s coming. Either something really bad, or a lot of really bad all at once. Either civil war here in the United States; or the people finally wake up and realize the chicken shit falls from the top down. Always has. Always will. So, start at the top.
Horace, You can’t cost plus contract an artillery shell.
Willful ignorance equals “I’m out!”
Not yet. When? When it’s too late?
I saw this –
“At the beginning of its full-scale invasion in Feb., Russia had around 3,330 operational tanks (2,840 with the ground forces, 330 with its naval infantry, and 160 with its airborne forces), according to the Military Balance 2021 database. . . .
However, Russia still has some 2,000 battle-ready tanks at hand, as well as an enormous amount in storage.”
And immediately thought of Oryx. And sure enough, that article is basing its estimate of “lost” Russian tanks on Oryx’s heroic fantabulism on behalf of the Ukrainians. Sorry, I rather think if Russia had 3,330 at the start, they have rather closer to 3,000 left not counting those pulled out of the deep stores (of which there have been at least dozens on video in recent weeks).
I keep wondering whether Biden’s insistence on giving Ukraine anything and everything could possibly, perhaps only in part, be a fear of blackmail for some illegal activities both he and his son were involved in that might be revealed if there’s a change in the government there.
President Z. shrilling for nuclear war was simply grandstanding. He knew he was not going to be granted the gift. The man is in a panic. He’s done with the offering of ‘defensive’ weapons. He wants ‘offensive’ weapons (big ones). The loudmouthing about preemptive nuclear strikes was his way of forcing the focus on stuff that can really reach deep in for a kill.
He also knows that hauling such into Ukraine is now out of the question – if it ever was. Such will have to be launched outside – Germany, Poland, the Baltic or the Med.
Mr. Z. is pretty pink pleased with Russia’s recent strikes. It forces the issue. The only ‘proper’ (equal & up the ante) response is an outside one.
Forget the geopolitical upheaval; the Collective West was churned Ukraine into a moral hazard.
After Russia subdues Ukraine (all of it) comes the revelations: all the financial, criminal and moral tales of the entrenched crime families of the “Collective West” (including their Russian allies) who have used and abused (and deceived) Ukraine all these many years.
The Collective West has starved Ukraine of its dignity, has feasted on its utility to fill its gluttonous belly.
Of all the dreads which the Collective West harbor about this war, exposure is the one thing which must not occur. Therefore Russia must be tossed – whatever the cost – onto the geopolitical mat and made to cry uncle. The Great Game of slicing and dicing her to feed the ravishing globalist, ‘woke’ wolves must not be detoured.
Or, the release of said documents (and videos) can be made as Russia/Belarus encircles Kiev. That will certainly quicken the end of this war. Mind you, everyday folks suffering under the crushing weight of their globalist elites will light bonfires on every knoll and hill as they watch the belated fall of their overbearing overlords.
Remember, God works his will through human agency. It is best not to fall into the hands of an angry God.
Some data points to consider:
– Trump’s last Sec Def, Chris Miller (Green
Beret), in his brief tenure consolidated all Special Forces under a separate newly formed Combatant Command. How could that impact the employment of DOD resources for State Dept and CIA “special” operations?
– Trump created new Combatant Command Space Force in 2020. Military control of critical space assets/funding and the neutering of politicized NASA. Coincidentally, here is SecDef Miller thanking Pence at the one year anniversary celebration of Space Force and going “off script” about something quite astounding. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jzDUVFRXGsA
– Post referenda, Ukraine forces report critical outages of Starlink CCT functionality in the new Russian federation territory. Yes, Elon Musk’s Space X is a major beneficiary of DOD contracts and “donated” the Starlink services.
– Former SecDef Chris Miller meets with some of t Ukraine’s top miitary leadership in April 2021.
https://www.jordanharbinger.com/chris-miller-brandon-wheeler-news-from-ukraines-war-front/
SEA CHANGE?
– General Christopher G. Cavoli (US Army Commander, Ranger spec ops, speaks Russian) assumed duties as Commander, U.S. European Command, July 1, 2022 and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), July 4, 2022 from Gen. Wolters (Air Force). Also on this date, Russian forces capture the last settlement in Luhansk, completing their first military goal in Ukraine after 130 days of war.
The stakes are very, very high for the US. If they do not engage (have someone engage) in nuclear war, the American Empire is over when Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Brazil, UAE, African nations, and others for the new financial power axis. That will be the end for the US – hence, do not be surprised if the mad men of the US (and basically anything mad in the world is American or supported or paid for by the US) resort to desperate measures. So far, the US has not really done anything real in this conflict…
I was watching a new Disney exclusive story and it bored me to death even after 5 episode. The whole thing was unfocused and totaly lack editing to cut off unnecessary and confusing fillers. I expect the reviews and audience would be in the same line of thought. To my surprise the ‘profesional’ reviewers and big time youtube reviews all praised the show and incredibly they use THE SAME words to push the narrative that this is the greatest thing since the last disney stuff. I checked the comment section and also find the most obvious shilling and astroturfing praising the show with THE SAME narrative..
The western population are infected with ‘influence ops’ so easily because they practically live day by day inside the most incredible propaganda machine from both their govt and the industry selling them endless stuff via advertisement (basically propaganda) and astroturfing ops which hyped up anything they want to sell..
Now focusing on the industry advertisement , they are indeed capping both end of their advertisement with hype and promotions and then capping the other end with FAKE astroturfers praising their product as if it it a super duper successfull item.
Of course for someone with even adequate brain power these propaganda. but for majority of the western population they ‘surrendered’ their brain into totally believing everything their govt told them..
It’s all propaganda in the west anymore. 24/7. I got rid of the TV in 2010. I turned off the smartphone in 2015. Why bother? We are being fed nothing but crap and lies. The most important thing to all these losers is to know where we are all the time and what we are spending our minor nuggets on. This is not an economy. Just ask Europe who just slipped into a service economy how that worked out for the United States.
It’s all one business. Amazon owns IMDB, for example.
This is why there’s YouTube/Rumble/etc channels making a living harshing on these shows (and being more entertaining at the same time), because no one else will. And their influence is growing as evidenced by the woke entertainment media now printing hit pieces directed at specific channels.
Subscribe to none of these services. Cancel them all. We can starve that beast, at least.
Haha imagine the Republicans not wanting to fund a foreign war
Idk what republicans you’re talking about but it certainly ain’t the ones we got now
I still do not understand , WHAT is the purpose of this endless and insane western propaganda when their proxy lost the war with russia ? what is the point ? is it to molify the western population into anti russia hatred and calm them beccause russia is to incompetent to win the war ?
what kind of stupidity is this ? one cannot win a war with just lying all day long.. and the target of this lie seem to be western population.. How US govt become so deranged as to deceive their own population like this ?
I think the goal is distraction from the policies that are very rapidly converting the middle class into the precariat poor and the poor into homeless. The covid response provided an opportunity to destroy small businesses and main street and convert vast quantities of owner occupied housing into Blackwater rental property (pumped with trillions straight from the fed) inflation and the upcoming recession/depression will push the Gini coefficient to the atmosphere and that means social (armed) instability.
Larry, you wrote “Moreover, the Russian missile barrage has highlighter the weakness, if not absence, of Ukraine’s anti-missile defense system.”
And a couple of weeks ago, you wrote how few are paying attention to the fact that Russian AD is routinely intercepting missiles, ho-hum, no biggie, an everyday occurrance for them. Just to put some numbers on it, RuMoD daily briefings report on missile intercepts:
Tochka-U 182 since March
Uragan 37 since July, no reports before that
Smerch 606 since March, but none since early August, must be all used up/destroyed
Okha 79 since late July.
HIMARS 1,222 intercepts since July. But includes some Okhas
HARM 58
Total 2,084 missile intercepts claimed.
An additional 800+ HIMARS missiles claimed destroyed in attacks on ammo depots for a total of 2,000+
Okha? SS-23: Where did they come from? Ukr didn’t have any, D, CZ and Bu units were reported to have been scrapped in 2002! Somebody has been telling porkies!
We do not know the true effect of HIMARS. How many were sent? RuMoD reports destroying 13 HIMARS and 81 M777. Additional units reported neutralised (damaged?).
But HIMARS did have one significant effect:
It seems the Russians have assigned top priority for missile intercepts to AD and stepped up Counter Air by fighter aviation. Up to end July, AD was responsible for the majority of aircraft kills claimed, 67 v 34, but since July only 16 aircraft kills compared to 67 for fighter aviation, and in September, 29 of 31 aircraft were downed by fighters.
thanks for posting actual numbers. Great summary. Always hard to know how much can be believed, but it probably provides at least a magnitude view.
One wonders what Russias stocks and production capacity is for AD missiles of various types.
In Germany, mainstream is claiming: we should deliver Ukraine air defense systems like Patriot or the german IRIS.
Saying : then Ukraine would be able to repel the rockets and drones.
Is this realistic ?
Ukraine is a very big country, with many big towns.
How many of such systems would they need to be able to defend efficiently ?
I don’t know why Germany even figures into any of this mess anymore. With the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2, the United States, the British Empire, Poland, Sweden (it’s their ocean), and Denmark (it’s their island), just declared war on Germany. With allies and friends like these losers, who needs enemies?
Cruise missiles fly low, and need to fly close enough to air defense system to be engaged. You would need enormous amount of systems to cover such big country. I don’t think NATO is willing to send all of it’s AA on one way trip (because non of it will get back).
I just don’t get it. Russia’s GDP is closest to that of Texas, but man, look at Russia go. Either Texas is holding back, or the GDP of the United States is highly over-stated.
Russia has vast supplies of natural gas, coal, oil, minerals, and rare earths (in “shameful abundance” according to the west), while Texas is now reduced to going back to used-up old oil wells. I don’t know what Texas’ supplies of natural gas, coal, minerals and rare earths are like. We don’t hear much about any of this and God knows Texas likes to brag.
Maybe all that debt that is on the books really does matter and must be deducted from every dollar of stated US GDP.
On the other hand, Russia has almost no debt. Must be nice for them.
While western lamestream media reports barges hitting bottom on the Rhine and the Mississippi, you don’t hear anything about droughts coming out of Russia, or Russian Rivers and water wells drying up, Russian crops withering, Russian harvests plummeting, Russian farmland laying fallow. I would think water would be considered a natural resource, what with the world’s population above 8-billion people.
All I’m saying is if you are going to talk about natural resources, somebody left out supplies of fresh water.
And if you are planning on invading Russia, you better have the oil to get your army from Poland to Moscow and run your war machine. Ask Hitler about that one.
GDP is not a good measure of production capacity. Its a measure of spending (I think). Just consider the fact that inflation improves base GDP in the raw data and is usually factored out
Also, most of the critical Russian MIC is still state owned. So they are geared up to produce stuff not profits.
Thus in the US we currently produce 14,000 rounds of 155 per month. Thats really a small operation and producing a commodity product at those volumes is very inefficient but probably very profitable for the vendor for that very reason. However 14k rounds per month makes little sense from a war preparedness standpoint – 2 or 3 days consumption by Ukraine.
In 2014, the Russians reportedly produced 1.4 million rounds of artillery ammunition. They keep hot production lines running at efficient levels. I would bet, the Russians spend less for those 1.4 million rounds than the DOD pays for our 150k rounds of annual production.
New ammunition factories have been opening up all over the United States.
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=0bf665aef36f1603JmltdHM9MTY2NTUzMjgwMCZpZ3VpZD0yOGM1NGUwNy03Yjg0LTZiNTUtMGFiYS01YzNjN2EwMjZhMjImaW5zaWQ9NTQ1MA&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=28c54e07-7b84-6b55-0aba-5c3c7a026a22&psq=new+ammunition+factories+opening+up+in+US&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ3Vucy5jb20vbmV3cy8yMDIwLzA3LzMwL2Zpb2NjaGktdG8tZXhwYW5kLXVzLWFtbW8tb3BlcmF0aW9ucy13aXRoLW5ldy1hcmthbnNhcy1wbGFudCM6fjp0ZXh0PU1pc3NvdXJpLWJhc2VkJTIwYW1tbyUyMG1ha2VyJTIwRmlvY2NoaSUyMG9mJTIwQW1lcmljYSUyMG9uJTIwV2VkbmVzZGF5LFUuUy4lMjBmb3IlMjB0aGUlMjBJdGFsaWFuJTIwY29tcGFueSUyN3MlMjBzdGFuZGFsb25lJTIwQW1lcmljYW4lMjBzdWJzaWRpYXJ5Lg&ntb=1
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=8cd2b3325c2c08a2JmltdHM9MTY2NTUzMjgwMCZpZ3VpZD0yOGM1NGUwNy03Yjg0LTZiNTUtMGFiYS01YzNjN2EwMjZhMjImaW5zaWQ9NTE2Mg&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=28c54e07-7b84-6b55-0aba-5c3c7a026a22&psq=new+ammunition+factories+opening+up+in+US&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cudGV4YXJrYW5hZ2F6ZXR0ZS5jb20vbmV3cy8yMDIyL2phbi8xOS9hbW11bml0aW9uLXBsYW50LXRvLW9wZW4tbmVhci10ZXhhcmthbmEv&ntb=1
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=34d39b1412470f7bJmltdHM9MTY2NTUzMjgwMCZpZ3VpZD0yOGM1NGUwNy03Yjg0LTZiNTUtMGFiYS01YzNjN2EwMjZhMjImaW5zaWQ9NTIxOQ&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=28c54e07-7b84-6b55-0aba-5c3c7a026a22&psq=new+ammunition+factories+opening+up+in+US&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZGVmZW5zZW5ld3MuY29tL2xhbmQvMjAyMi8wNC8xOC91cy1hcm15LWRvY3VtZW50LWRldGFpbHMtcGxhbi10by11cGRhdGUtd3dpaS1lcmEtYW1tby1wbGFudHMtYW5kLWRlcG90cy8&ntb=1
To Larry Johnson.
Please delete this comment. There was some kind of glitch in the system. Microsoft piggy-backing sales stuff of comments? I don’t know. I know that I am not a troll. It would be nice if you gave commentors a way to delete their comments. Thank you. Sorry.
The real risk in Ukraine is to overseas sales of military hardware by the US MIC. It is true that stockpiles burned through will call for refilling, but ‘Green Suicide,’ money printing, hollowing out US industry will cause huge competition for what to rebuild.
Fantasy life inside computer games down in Mom & Dad’s basement is not fertile worker replacement territory for recruitment needed to populate the technical jobs in manufacturing. And propaganda factories (modern universities) crank out pronoun focused spawn of safe spaces. Imagine them on the factory floor solving snags, when their imagination of real work is working from home.
Reality is a harsh mistress.
The point is that NATO utter defeat in Ukraine is assured but the implications to Washington, DC funding of politicians will be a mess, & anti Grift Wars sentiment seen in Tulsi Gabbard defection is just the Dem side of MAGA Republicans.
I can’t see how it shakes out, but the MIC grift will be uncertain at best, IMO.
US strategy was to drain Russian warfighting capabilities in Ukraine, before NATO/USA took over.
Seems to have backfired since Russia’s been expecting & preparing for this day since 2008, if not before.
That also seems like the best explanation for why Russia has been so cautious up to this point. They’re trying to keep as much in reserve as possible, while ramping up new production.
“Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine.”
We’ll see about that. When have they ever voted against moar money for war?
The Russians have nothing but options. Zelensky? Not so much. Retreat to his multi-million-dollar, US Taxpayer paid for, mansion in Miami.
The little, cross-dressing, midget, drug addict is what the US government will look like in 2024?
Oh, wait. Anybody seen Rachel Levine lately? A cross-dressing trans who happens to be Jewish. Now that’s something to hang a culture on.
Just know that Merica thinks it can win a nuclear war or we wouldn’t be in this situation. And by winning, I mean surviving to rule what’s left of the world with no one to challenge it. Pretty sweet because “no one fucks with the Bidens,” as Joe recently said.
There is a spectacularly mistimed Foreign Affairs article out on the topic of the “replenishment of arms” boom that is sure to begin soon. I can’t help but wonder if the Russian “value arms” they sneer at will become much more popular after this war, as militaries will look at actual performance of systems in the field.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/coming-chinese-weapons-boom
“Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, …”
I think cause and effect is the other way around.
The brave but stupid “charge of the Light Brigades” from Ukraine on a handful of troops (who escaped) backed up by massed artillery have been the result of the coming elections and the desperate attempt for Biden (or his puppeteers) to look good.
Now they have run out of brave and willing Ukrainians (and weaponry) Kiev/nato spooks are forced into events like Kerch bridge to keep up moral.
I think the stunning shelling of cities is really about Russia breaking Kiev and then soon after western morale. If there were a great tactical advantage to them they could have happened months ago. There are a lot of Ukrainian inexperienced call ups out there at the front that want to go back and check on their families in Lvov right now.
What happens next – as you say Senate and Congress go to Republicans who unless they are incredibly stupid will back off Ukraine entirely (and naturally and reasonably enough) blame Biden AND Peloisi for it. (Trump can pretty much brag that he got it right). It takes some time for November election to change to January practice, but the US legislature always moves slowly.
Ukraine is lost – sadly I don’t think they have a credible leadership that can negotiate a defeat with Russia and convincingly argue that nazis will not be shelling civilians 2 weeks later. Germany/France lost all credibility over Minsks and UK/US never had any.
It may be a very cold winter while not much happens.
This isn’t a war right now over Ukraine. Never was. It’s between the US and the rest of the world. Even if the US decides that this has got too expensive to fight right now, it will merely be a temporary withdrawal. I think that Putin and Xi recognize this. Russia and China in particular learned from the fall of the Soviet Union. WWII style battles are gone. The future is economic battles. Hence Russia, China and India focus on trade, trade routes, and most important open, honest and fair methods to make financial transactions. US is the one that is helping to speed up the realization by countries that the US financial blackmail is evil. In the long term, Russia has to show that an alternative exists. Russia needs to create a situation where the US has an “out” to stop the current mess. Then keep a sharp eye on them. Long pole in the tent has always been nukes.
“Then there is the nightmare scenario for Ukraine and NATO of Russia invoking the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and Russia asking Belarus to join the fray. Russian and Belarusian troops already are gathering on Ukraine’s northern border.”
I think that the Belorussians will take Western Ukraine and cut it off from Poland. I think that they’ll meet the Russians in Transnistria. I think it, I don’t know it for sure.
I don’t think that Russia will allow Poland to have L’vov. I think that they may allow Hungary to have the ethnic Hungarian region of West Ukraine. Maybe.
Again, I don’t know it for sure. But it’s my gut feeling.
As an aside, Hungary and the Czech Republic are the two countries to watch, in the struggle against the Anglo-American NWO. Which is on the way to the ash bin of History.
Larry, I have been reading your analysis here and watching interviews with you on several independent news services on the Web for months and I have seldom seen you make an inaccurate assessment. In fact your assessments almost always are absolutely correct and this article is no different. I post your articles to my account on LinkedIn and while I do get some negative feedback the overwhelming reaction is positive. You’ve consistently been an accurate reporter of events and a bit of an oracle of what is to come. Keep going! Best wishes from Halifax Canada
Indeed, there’s a few wars centered on Ukraine, but the one that subsumes them all looks something like this…
After a century of ahistorical growth, we’ve arrived at a world-historical moment.
The elites that ruled during the chaotic step function phase of growth and the institutions and systems that grew up around them are being replaced.
It was inevitable that the world would transition to a much shallower growth curve, focusing on stability & quality rather than quantity.
That requires different institutions & systems and from what we can already see, different elites as well.
Putin has repeatedly called this process “unstoppable”. He’s right. Everything plateaus eventually. It’s the way the universe works, and the elites bucking the process are only making it worse for themselves and those that follow them after the transition.
It doesn’t have to be this way, but they’re up to their elbow in the monkey jar and can’t imagine letting go of the nut they’ve been holding for centuries.
Let’s hope their imagination improves soon.
Larry, I’d be interested in your take on costs to stability in the US due to the government’s endless doubling down on the “Russia is losing” meme, politically, financially, ideologically and militarily. Won’t facts like Saudis tying up with Russia on oil price and the real-world impact of same affect the sensibilities of people in the US, no matter what the government tries to do or say about it? Of course, that’s only one bit of evidence of obfuscation and outright lying foisted on us by the powers that be.
It also seems, despite cracks in support for war (cf Rep Paul Gosar’s recent remarks), whatever the outcome of the midterm elections, doubling down will continue while squabbles in ruling circles mount. Where does this get us in terms of both longer term political outcomes and domestic stability? The talk here and elsewhere of impending civil war in the US seems immensely abstract. General devolution of living standards, civility and domestic tranquility seem much more likely, at least short- to mid-term. How do you view the evolving political situation in the US?
It seems the best way out for the USG and the forces running it would be to withdraw military support to Ukraine, “encourage” a cease fire and negotiate peace with Russia, recognizing and agreeing to its security demands. Of course, this could probably have been done on much more favorable terms at an earlier point in time. But any other outcome than negotiating peace now seems a lot worse for the USG, for people at home and abroad generally, and of course for poor Ukraine, whatever is left of it. Your take?
LONL,
You assume Russia would negotiate with the agreement incapable West. If you listen to Medvedev, Russia’s position is close to only accepting complete capitulation (NATO our of Europe?) – now that NATO military stocks are depleted.
The US could run for the hills – but the economic war is just starting (and that is one that the West’s ($$) stockpiles are even more depleted by printing countless tens of trillions.
If the west pulls out, they abandon Ukraine to a certain Russian fate. Russia will take the whole enchilada.
Dear Mr Johnson,
Germany is not a permanent member of the UN Security Council:
https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members
I wonder how could Germany exert veto power …
Perhaps France could -as the only EU country on the list of permanent members?
I would thank you for publishing my comment.
Greetings from Germany!
I presumed he meant veto power within EU policy space.
One thing that amazes me about many normal, functioning people is their continued support of Ukraine in the face of obvious lies by the Biden administration. The constant gaslighting should make people question every bit of information coming out of the US government and its allied media. It is hard to judge how much truth is penetrating the population, but there are indications such as comments about Larry’s articles placed in the Gateway Pundit, for example. Also, if there is a fair midterm election, there may be a clue.
Something about Russia. I know smart capable people that have been calling the main stream media “fake” for several years. They can identify why it’s fake.
However, when it comes to Russia, they will parrot the fake news as if it’s God’s word straight from the mountain top and inscribed in granite
For example, Trump. Good man, but he will not admit the real, justifiable reason Putin had to intervene: a massive military buildup certain to invade eastern Ukraine and finish the annihilation of Russians they consider traitors and enemies.
“[A] massive military buildup . . . ” by whom? You can say it. I don’t even think the west thinks Russia is good enough to qualify as “traitors” or “enemies.” The west wants us to think of Russia and the Russian people as sub-humans, to be cancelled.
We saved ourselves in the Cuban Missile Crisis by finally admitting that the Russians loved their children, too. Other darker, sinister, far more evil forces within the United States (the Powers That Be) were watching and said: “Can’t have any of that love crap; not with the Russians, not with any of it.” And JFK was gone. Then MLK was gone. Then Bobby was gone. In quick, doubling down fashion.
And here we are again.
I can’t see anything I disagree with you on. Ukraine was planning to slaughter more Russians.
CF2
That’s because Trump surrounds himself with shitty advisors.
He even hires shitty lawyers, and former prosecutors who are not going to provide him with a robust defense, but a technical defense on the document raid case. They’re not the type to challenge the state. He’s the executive branch and he alone gets to decide what is classified or not, even based on precedent which was the Clinton document case. Instead, these lawyers have him playing along when he should have told the DOJ to pound sand and hire better lawyers. Too bad, he still hasn’t learned how to spot them. If you hang with Republicans you will get the same FP views, even if you veer slightly. I voted for him because he was for making friends with Russia and against these endless wars. Trump kept sending weapons to Ukraine and was led around by the nose on FP including Russia. Not much changed there, sadly.
Wagner group is advancing into the center of Bakhmut. Tense combat. The city is crucial to the Ukro.
It’s not crucial, but the next one in line is very important.
I see no evidence for saying that if there’s a shift in control of either the House or the Senate, Biden “will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine.” Except for the lone Republican voice rarely heard, the Republicans are as much onboard with this war as are the Democrats. Have you spoken to Lindsey Graham recently? The parties may differ on domestic issues, but on foreign wars they are usually in lockstep. Trump is the only major politician calling for negotiations, but there is still so much TDS that most likely his voice will be ignored.
You cannot keep an entire country on endless war-footing, with no hopes for anything and nothing but endless war and endless warmongering. The people go nuts. Right along with the government and its institutions.
At this point, you could show endless movies of nuclear bombs going off. 24/7. It would make no difference. Basically, we are at the point of saying to ourselves: “Yeah. Well. Still here. Sorry.”
Horror becomes almost hygienic. Like washing your hands with it. This is how you are gotten to the point where you are so desensitized that nuclear war becomes both winnable and survivable. Like grabbing a towel and drying your hands. Afterwards.
SWIFT RESPONSE ???? In the cards?
Not sure what to think of reporter George Webb. On his warnings of things going nuclear, I am mostly but not entirely skeptical. The chink in my thinking being that all of the murmuring, blabbling innendo from the West and the Kagan-Neocon Nexus continuing to bring up rather preposterous “what-ifs” as an entre to presenting their puerile justifications for nuclear retaliation do succeed in one ugly accomplishment: They set the international stage for NATO-State Department-CIA or stooges to plant a small nuke somewhere both sensitive and prominent (preferably to kill poor schoolchildren or something) and then squall that “ROOSKIES Done It !!!”
https://twitter.com/RealGeorgeWebb1/status/1580178923434180609 Here Webb says that Hungary (!), Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Turkiye are all in line with modern F-16s being launched out of Papa to whack the Russian Black Sea Navy.
Hummm. Shall be interesting to observe to what extent the sea-skimming and plunging fire gets through, and to what extent the naval Pantsir and other anti-air defenses of the Russian Navy are effective.
NATO won’t be satisfied until it makes nuclear war or gets its face bashed in.
Well, just my thots . . .
“… Joe Biden is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives and the Senate. If this happens, he will no longer have a congressional ally eager to keep shoveling money and weapons into Ukraine. …”
I hate to say this, Larry, but considering the astounding bipartisanship the Congress has exhibited thus far when it comes to Ukraine support, I doubt that the mid-terms will alter that significantly whichever way the wind may blow.
While I’ve seen some inklings of opposition emerging from Republicans, the trend looks fairly insignificant versus the generalized gung-ho mentality in the Legislature.
I could be wrong. Have you seen stronger indications?
Lastly, thanks once again for an excellent analysis.
Congress is still mainly Boomers high from sniffing thier own Cold War flashback gas.
So are the comment sections of Conservative Inc. media. Putin is Hitler+Stalin+Satan in their eyes, and absolutely nothing caused Russia to invade Ukraine. They say we must stop him, or Putin will try to conquer all Europe. These are people who just spent 5 years crying “fake news” no gobbling up all the MSM propaganda. They’re regularly linking to the ISW, FFS…
Posting counter links to the coverage of Ukraine from 2014 to 2020 about the neo-Nazis groups and the civil war are answered with blocks.
In red corner we have Putin who said “World without Russia must not exist”
In blue corner we have Khazara neocons usurping once-largest economy and army in the world thinking “World in which everybody else does not blindly obey us need not exist”
Don’t wanna know the odds really but I guess we will learn soon enough.
I was thinking about all the Russian troop movement in Belarus and then thought about the military aims for the campaign as it is now. It seems as though with all that has happened they need to take the entirety of Ukraine to denazify it otherwise there will be terrorist attacks ad nauseum for the foreseeable future. Then i thought how to do this. We have seen preparation for the move to Odessa in the south for sometime however if you have to deal with the Transcarpathian mountains to get to Lvov from the south it would make it more difficult going. However what about a strike taking Lvov over open country from Belarus? It also cuts the rest of Ukraine off from NATO reinforcements. I don’t know how many strikes is logistically feasible for the Russians but you could move on Kiev and Kharkov the same way at the same time. Makes it very difficult to defend against and gets it over quickly. However to coordinate this you would need an overall commander 😉
For the Russians to take Kiev they would really have to start something.
This is what “starting something” looked like in World War II. We have forgotten what war is really like.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/enormous-360-degree-panoramic-picture-dresden-after-allied-bombing-1945-1484905
An excellent article Larry! However, I am an optimist as I foresee the Republicans getting Congress! I do not see WW3 and I think the West will blink first! Ukraine will be abandoned to it’s fate and I say around the end of January, Ukraine will surrender then. The US is desperate for another war and it looks like it will be granted but NOT in Ukraine. I am noticing clashes with Turkey and Greece and an invasion of Haiti is considered to put down an insurrection there. Also watch for the US planning to invade Hungary soon! Mind you the US will have a very rude awakening if it invades both!
What is a colossal irony is this. The West, Nato, the EU and the US Globalist franchise with its Neocon stooges believed their own BS about their invincibility in contrast to the weakness of Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Sudan and others. This relative invincibility continued up till recently with Russia. When the West’s military might was impotent against Russia’s military and their sanctions equally important, all that was left for them to try, regime change in Russia. What is beginning to clearly appear to observers as a regime change is in EU countries. The threat us not only of regime change but of the dissolution of the unelected EU and the occupier NATO.
“The idiots in Washington are playing poker, while everybody else is playing Chess.”
Fiy the idiots in the EU are playing hopscotch…
Tonight our idiot-en-chef (Macron) stated he’d send MORE weapons to the Kiev mafia.
Good luck to him… his future is hanging from a lamppost.
I do not know what hopscotch is, but I would rather suggest that the EU is playing with sand (other, more disrespectful ideas came to mind).
The parallels with the Cuban Missile Crisis are appropriate. There were fewer psychopaths (like Curtis LeMay) running the US back then, and Kennedy and Kruschev reached an agreement before nuking the world. Russia would remove nukes from Cuba, and the US would remove nukes from Turkey. Kennedy paid for that with his life.
Where is that more sensible foreign policy today?
Khazarians are attempting to take over the world. Ever wonder why DOJ/FBI are putting out supposed intel that white nationalism is the biggest threat to the US? Because we are. We are the Khazarian’s biggest threat in trying to prevent their continued takeover. They divide and fragment their enemies. Of course, the 2020 election was a coup to put in the clown puppets. Khazarians push on the conflict in Ukraine… strong white men die, both sides genocided, all the while the Khazarians profit at our own destruction. I was once a tool of the Khazarians, and like Tulsi Gabbard with the WEF / Demonrats, I walked away from it decades ago. Like many people say, life doesn’t really start until we’re in our 40’s.
We must stop them, God willing.
Larry: truly love your commentary here in Valrico/Brandon.
Tomorrow is the anniversary of the Russian Who Saved The World – Vasili Arkhipov.
Coupled with the movie “The Russians Are Coming! The Russians Are Coming!”, this might be a good opportunity for you to refresh your readership on The Cold War mentality that still pervades the Beltway (and beyond), and how the military-industrial complex that Ike warned us about continues to foment fear in order to maintain their profits, and prop up a rapidly failing empire, by needing a boogeyman to keep folks scared. Why not the Russians, who are all monsters and not people like us?
So, as you have pointed out previously, simply pretend that Russia is just the reinvented Soviet Union, and that Putin is merely the latest in the line of dictators succeeding Brezhnev and Company ,(Mikhael just being an anomaly on the radar and not really representing the glasnost that was offered – that was just a Trojan Horse to fool the West into letting their guard down so those dirty Commies could nuke us into oblivion. Let me go hide under my schooldesk to save myself from the mushroom cloud.)
As H.L. Mencken judiciously pointed out:
“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”
Thanks for all you do!
A government which endlessly creates at first imaginary hobgoblins to keep the population in line ultimately transmogrifies into an actual threat to itself, others, and its population.
In 1979 teaching Salafism and jihad to kids in Afghanistan was considered a clever idea by Brzezinski and CFR to draw in and weaken the Soviets. But things take on a life of their own.
Larry: I am awaiting approval for my previous post, but my date is wrong. It is 27 October, not tomorrow. Sorry for any confusion.
I think “Pride” and “Cockiness” has gone to their heads. So much so they are willing to make their own populations suffer because they are to proud to back down. When you see your leadership willing to sacrifice the well being of their own nation for ideological gain, you know they’ve reached the stage of a demagoguery mentality that infected WWII Germany, whose leaders literally led Germany to absolute ruin with absolute obstinance, carrying a large chunk of their population with the same media bravado. Sad when considering this was all avoidable.
Most of the world doesn’t buy into the American lies about Russia and Ukraine. Most white people buy into them unfortunately.
Example : I live in Thailand. Thais tell me that about 70% of thais see the US at fault in Ukraine. From my experience, most non whites see how the US goes around and starts war after war and interferes in country after country usually counting their own country. On the other hand, most Thais like Americans more than Russians.
That Wagner vid is something else for us history nerds. It’s a modern high tech take on the dragon’s teeth of the Siegfried Line and the extensive trenching before the German Kursk offensive presented in 21st Century high def drone footage, complete with dramatic music as it happens in real time.
As you say, it’s tank country and requires special battlefield preparation. But importantly also, people in the know don’t see this ending any time soon.
A hypothesis on why Russia is waiting and avoids winning in Ukraine :
It is french : DeepL translator is your friend.
https://strategika.fr/2022/10/12/et-si-lobjectif-russe-netait-pas-de-vaincre-lukraine-mais-de-vaincre-loccident-par-dominique-delawarde/
https://www.deepl.com/translator
The disinformation campaign in the alleged free world unparalleled in our history manages to be a point bigger than any US objective as the great instigator of the conflict. How to disconnect the EU from Russian energy and change the Govt in Moscow to also disconnect China from Russian energy to maintain US hegemony and the current unipolar WO already completely defeated. Just like all the other goals. But almost 8 months of lies in an authentic parallel world of what is really happening in Ukraine impresses anyone.
Now Russia lost more than a thousand tanks in the first weeks of the conflict. And it must have been for the battery-less javelins. It’s hard to believe in the hole of lies in which the West has got into as well as in the EU Ursula has also been guaranteeing for more than 6 months that Russia no longer has missiles and is cannibalizing refrigerators?! Politicians without a shred of dignity and shame in their face who lie at the same level as one of the biggest propagandists of the Kiev proxy regime like Arestovich. For whom Russia also runs out of missiles every week. Better only MI6 and the Institute for the Study of Mental Illness of the Kagan Family in the US.
Maybe they can’t even say the names of all the countries in the world with more than a thousand tanks. This is really only at the level of Arestovich for whom Russia has fired the last missile every week since February or Ursula Van der Crazy who must already see refrigerators flying. Or the Russian casualties of Selensky, who only never mentions those from Ukraine,
And heeding a comment from a German woman who guaranteed that about 20k trained soldiers from various European countries were sent to Ukraine for the Kherson offensive, while there is already a list of 200k without 1 or more members to the US prosthetics who will not be able to help even 10%. And if we think of 200K cut off we have to think of the same number of irrecoverable injuries still with the 4 limbs in a war of attrition. Which in turn points to the number no one wants to talk about of around 100k KIAS. And here is the absolutely overwhelming balance of Ukrainian casualties that Selensky doesn’t even want to hear about and from here try to counteract with purely invented Russian casualties.
And all for what? What did Ukraine or its main sponsors gain from any of the September offensives? More weapons? Midterms in the US? None of this makes any sense when what you sense is that Ukraine has reached a point where it can’t possibly withstand 15 days of a serious Russian offensive. Add as many mercenaries and Poles as you like. When the ground freezes and Russia puts all the equipment it has been transporting to Ukraine into the service of its force of reinforced men, you will see them abandon their weapons! And is Biden happy with the mid terms? Are there really that many Americans interested in the Ukraine conflict? And which side are you on? Let the gas start to rise again! Because after the sanctions they still remembered a ceiling for a scarce commodity like oil. Do these freaks ever learn anything?
You honestly think the USA is short on ammunition? If the USA could get low in ammunition then they’d have never been able to fight the Iraq AND Afghanistan wars! If you are who you claim then you’d have intel that told you that the USA is perfectly healthy in ammunition supplies. The reason being that the supplier is a private corporation, and THEY have MASSIVE supplies of ammo. All the USA has to do is buy it or take possession of it in a time of war. There is no supply shortage of guns or weapons. The USA has been at war throughout most of its existence. The idea we’d be low on ammunition is patently absurd! Read a history book!
Unforetunately, even after the election, the Biden string-pullers will continue to have the Senate as a friend and ally in their Ukraine proxy war due to mincing lunatics like Lindsey Graham, who will happily cross the aisle to vote for their hysterical Russophobic mania.