As the war in Ukraine approaches its one-year anniversary one of the few things that have remained constant is the Polish governments firm backing of the regime in Kiev. Along with the three Baltic states, Warsaw has exhibited a radical zeal for rejecting any form of compromise with Moscow, choosing instead to pursue a policy of further weapons shipments to Ukraine aimed at weakening Russia at any cost. This was confirmed in a recent report by the Polish edition of German “Die Welt”. Based on discussions with Polish diplomatic sources that wanted to remain anonymous, “every day, Polish politicians say what the representatives of Germany or France usually do not dare to say, and thus formulate one of the goals of the war, that Russia must be unconditionally weakened as far as possible.”
Of course, this approach is only an extension of what American Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin made clear in April, when stating that “we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” However, taking into consideration the recent words of Poland’s vice minister of defense, Marcin Ociepa, about the “probability of a war in which we will be involved” being “very high, too high for us to treat this scenario only hypothetically”, the statements of the diplomats referred to in the “Die Welt” sound almost suicidal. As reported by the publication:
“ ‘Our goal is to stop Russia forever. A rotten compromise must not be allowed,’ a senior Polish Foreign Ministry official told Die Welt newspaper. ‘A truce on Russia’s terms would only lead to a pause in the fighting, which would only last until Russia recovers,’ the diplomat, who wished to remain anonymous, explained.’”
The report notes that even “the U.S. and U.K., which heavily support Ukraine with arms supplies, are less radical than Poland.” It sums up its findings with words a Polish diplomat: “We are lobbying to weaken Russia.”
Brazen words indeed. It should occur to any rational observer that such muscle flexing on the part of most of the Polish political class – the only consistent voice of opposition to Warsaw’s escalatory agenda being that of conservative MP Grzegorz Braun – on the face of it does not correspond to reality. War with Russia, in any configuration, be it part of a “coalition of the willing” intervening in Ukraine, with full NATO support or alone, will always be a catastrophe for Poland. Indeed, even Polish President Andrzej Duda seemed to highlight this very point, albeit privately, when speaking with what turned out to be another call by the Russian pranksters Lexus and Vova impersonating French President Emmanuel Macron. One can argue than that one of the reasons such statements are made and such policies are pursued is because Warsaw feels it has the full backing of NATO’s most important player, the United States. It turns out membership in NATO has been a drain on Polish strategic thought, setting up a narrative dominant for decades now that Poland is and shall remain in a constant binary struggle between the West and the Evil Empire reincarnate, i.e. Russia and all of Polish foreign policy should be geared to that end, no matter the consequences. Could this have been prevented? Was Poland’s entry into NATO a sound political decision?
Worth reminding here is that just as in the United States there was never a lack of voices opposing NATO expansion in the second half of the 1990’s, so too in Poland a vocal minority tried to make the case that joining the alliance was not all that it was made out to be. One the most prominent critics of Poland’s eventual entry into NATO was then MP Jan Łopuszański. Despite leading a small faction (6 members of the lower house and one senator) of right-wing parliamentarians, Lopuszański was by no means shy in making the case that NATO membership would be detrimental to Poland.
A few weeks before Poland’s formal accession into NATO, which occurred on March 12 1999, Łopuszański made the following observation during a debate in the Polish Sejm:
“Today, 4 geopolitical or outright strategic situations are theoretically possible. First, Poland subordinated to the East, specifically to Moscow, we practiced this once. Second, subordinated to the West, specifically the European Union, NATO. Third, a Poland divided between East and West. And fourth, a Poland that is independent.”
Łopuszański went on to say that he considered it a “paradox” that the “pursuit of multiple dependencies on the West, including in foreign and defense policy” was equated by the Polish ruling political class at the time with “the pursuit of independence”. The maverick politician summed up his statement with the following warning: “I wish for Poland and myself first and foremost, but I wish especially for you, who will take on your conscience the support of NATO accession, that for this act our nation will not have to pay a price that you probably do not wish Poland to pay.”
A few weeks later, after Poland became a formal member of the alliance and with the Kosovo War raging in the background, Łopuszański hammered away at NATO’s intervention:
“We ask a question of great importance to Poland, a recent NATO member: who made NATO the judge of nations? Who gave the pact, which under the Washington Treaty is a defense pact, the right to attack a sovereign state that poses no threat to any member of the pact?”
In light of later interventions in Libya, Afghanistan, waging a proxy in Ukraine and ever louder calls for NATO to configure itself against China, Łopuszański’s observation from that same parliamentary debate seems prophetic:
“If today the right of NATO to judge nations and their governments and to enforce its decisions by force is recognized, tomorrow this alleged right may be directed against any of the nations of the world, including Poland. Before our eyes, in the name of building a global empire, the principle of independence of nations living in their sovereign states is being erased.”
The ultimate aim of NATO’s military activism in the post-Cold War era was, according to Łopuszański, “building, by fait accompli, a political system in which a global hegemon, together with a group of satellite states, will have the right: to decide the fate of nations; to decide what is fair in relations between them; to decide on the borders of states and on their internal affairs.”
One is almost tempted to say: welcome to geopolitics in 2023!
Witold Tomczak, who was one of Łopuszanski’s colleagues in the fight against accession into NATO, highlighted in a conversation with me recently that it was precisely to avoid the loss of sovereignty, “entanglement of Poland in foreign wars and interests” of the “‘world gendarme’(Lopuszanski’s term), usurping the moral guardian of international order’”, that rebelling against the mainstream consensus of the time was such a necessity. “We did not agree to the realization of the interests of one superpower under the banner of NATO and under the pretext of its defensive idea. During the period of pro-NATO propaganda, it was not easy to maintain an independent view and vote truly on the side of a free and sovereign Poland” – states Tomczak.
Paradoxically, not much has changed since those heady days when a small band of firebrands tried to upend the establishments push to make Poland component of the Atlanticist camp. Today it is still not “easy to maintain an independent view and vote truly on the side of a free and sovereign Poland”, as MP Grzegorz Braun would readily testify.
The fact that the first round of NATO expansion in 1999 was the opening salvo in the process of deteriorating East-West relations is already well established and undisputable now. But it must be said that this “most fateful error of American policy in the entire post-Cold War era”, as the late George F. Kennan called it, also released some of the worst impulses in the post-Cold War Polish political class, which have become so manifest during the course of the war in Ukraine. Considering the radical and irrational agenda being pursued by the Polish government and the anti-Russian hysteria, accompanied by a in many ways sickening and subservient pro-Ukrainian bias present in the mainstream media, we are fast approaching the moment when that defiant spirit of NATO-skepticism will have to return in full force. Otherwise, we may face the prospect that opening the words of our national anthem “Poland is not yet lost!” will remain just that – words.
Patrick Armstrong says
On three occasions, 1812, 1939 and today, Polish hatred of Russia has contributed to wars which have cost Poland dearly. Very flat learning curve.
yup they hav not learnt
“Poland” as it exists at present is a temporary entity that relies on the weakness of Germany, the forebearance of Russia and the support of the United States. If any one of these pillars fall so too does “Poland.”
Paul Greenwood says
Poland was recreated in 1919 at the behest of Woodrow Wilson influenced by Paderewski. Poland was sponsored by France interwar along with defence treaties with Czechoslovakia that required French mobilisation before USSR could act on its defence treaty with Czechoslovakia.
France had an alliance with Poland from 1920 – but Poland still signed a Non-Aggression Pact with Germany 1934 for 10 years which Hitler revoked after Poland signed a different Pact with London in March 1939. This same Poland that had cooperated with Germany in carving up Czechoslovakia in 1938 !!!!
This is fascinating…….Piotr Zychowicz quoted the memoirs of the French ambassador to Poland, Léon Noël, who wrote as early as October 1938, “It is of utmost importance that we remove from our obligations everything that would deprive French government the freedom of decision on the day when Poland finds itself in war with Germany”. Foreign Minister Georges Bonnet reassured Noel by writing that “our agreement with Poland is full of gaps, needed to keep our country away from war”
France thought the treaty obligations resembled Emmentaler cheese – as incidentally did Lord Halifax when Colonel Beck duped Chamberlain into a guarantee in 1939……..
Does Poland ever consider history where it is the main course being served ?
Poland seized back a territory in 1938, that the the Checks stole from Poland during the Russia-Polish war of 1919-1921.
The Polish army was fighting to the death against the Soviet Army and the Checks annexed that piece of territory.
So there is more to that story than meets the eye.
Patrick Armstrong says
The battle of Warsaw was a rebound from the Polish invasion of Russia. Even Wikipedia knows that. Speaking of “more than meets the eye”.
Carlton Meyer says
Czechoslovakia and its borders were created by the victorious allies, mostly France and Britain, in 1920, who also awarded it the Sudetenland that was over 90% German. They corrected this in Munich 1938 in a successful peace conference. After the war, the warmongering cry “appeasement” myth was created.
Agnieszka Gill says
As much as I find abhorrent the nonsense that passes for Polish “foreign policy”, I recall the mood surrounding entry of NATO- it was viewed as a necessary step before admission to the EU. In other words it was a blackmail. Anyone claiming that this move was premised on fear of Russia’s invasion is lying. Last time there was any potential reason to invade Poland from the East was in the 80s and did not happen. Yes, Polish political class is shameless in their fake bravery believing in the US’s divine protection. As European, with US passport, I am embarrassed that almost entire Europe, became a bunch of vassal states to the US, especially since subjugation is premised on the notion that NOBODY actually believes: namely an imminent danger of Russia invading the West.
Miss very much your columns, insights based on experience and keen analytical mind, Russia Sitrep etc.
Never in my life I would have imagined the degree of attack on freedom of thought in the Western world, especially in Canada under the control/Dictatorship of the Deputy Prime Minister and the puppet Prime Minister.
Hope and Pray that Freedom of thought and Truth will prevail soon (It always does but timing is hard to pin down)
Implies some increment of learning!
Religious roots for the conflict?
just saying says
Maybe the ones who really learn are the ones who get killed in one of those unnecessary wars, and then they’re not around to influence the debate.
Carlton Meyer says
Not only are the Poles taunting Russia, they are demanding a trillion dollars from Germany. This didn’t work out well in 1939 as “Poland Lost World War II”.
When I was a young man there was a plethora of Polish jokes around. I’m seeing now why.
Patrick Armstrong says
What Poland and the others should have done
Hello Patrick. I miss your columns, but understand the silence.
Stay well and stay strong. May truth prevail.
Miss your blog too, Mr Armstrong, and also fully understand the silence, what a deleterious climate for freedom of expression up here
Poland is next…
Mondo Cane says
That’s what the Poles obsess about. No rhyme nor reason for such a move by Russia. NATO’s expansionism may rival Germany’s but this is not 1942 and no need to carve off half of Poland into a buffer. Unfortunately, the Poles act like children, allowing emotion to override reason.
This entire fiasco began as reaction to a threat to Russia. So now they suggest they double down on the threat as a solution? Brilliant.
Russia’s never taken to threats kindly. What happens that instead of weakening Russia, it strengthens it? What then? Continue nipping at its heels, stirring up trouble wherever and whenever you can? I doubt they’ll tolerate another few decades of that without serious repercussions. Hasn’t Europe already suffered enough blowback? I’m no economist but can imagine there’s always room for more.
The Poles and everyone else on this rudderless bandwagon are on a one way, dead end street – and hell bent on taking the rest of us along for the ride. Frankly, I wish the UK, the no. 1 ringleader in this sordid empire business, would just do the world a favor and dry up and blow away.
Top Gum says
Don’t confuse the ordinary people with their puppet government. This goes for every country. What people want and how they feel is not the same as what their governments (maybe is better to call them all regimes) do and state.
Yes, if the number 1.) & 2.) disappear, no matter how, would not be bad. Then a basis for peace among the peoples would be created.
Ja, wenn die Nummer 1.) & 2.) verschwinden, egal wie, wäre nicht schlecht. Dann wäre eine Basis für den Frieden unter den Völkern geschaffen.
Art Thomas says
A perfect analogy from the dog world: I had a friend who would bring her feisty Yorkshire terrier to my place to walk in the woods accompanied by a neighbor’s very laid back black lab. Having an over abundance of self-importance the Yorky would take to nipping the back legs of the lab who would simply shake it off and pay no attention to the Yorkshire. One day after many walks and many nips the lab, fed up, turned in his stride and nipped back one time. Being as he was 15X larger than the Yorkshire his nip went through the little dog’s rib cage and nearly punctured his lung. I don’t think the dogs were ever together again, but if they were the Yorkshire, with his self-important temperament overriding the memory of his near death experience would likely have met a more serious response from a more intelligent dog.
k. talaat says
Could it be? Russia’s show and tell example to NATO is Poland. What’s Russia’s 1.5 million man mobilization for anyway?
just saying says
It’s not mobilization like 300,000+ they had recently, but an increase in standing army size, as a reaction to increased threat from NATO. Large number of troops will be added to region bordering Finland. I assume they will permanently have troops in Belarus, as a counter to Polish militarization.
And Poland being such an aggressor will be the first frontline state destroyed if the Ukraine war escalates and expands beyond Ukraine’s borders.
With over 1000 dead polish military and Russians killed by Poles the Poles have reason to fear. They should never have gotten involved. Now they are terrified Russia will take revenge on them for their participation not just in weapons supply, not just as a key NATO base but for entering the war with troops.
There are entire batallions of Poles in Ukie uniform.
So if I was them, yeah, I’d be a bit scared.
It’s interesting to watch fear take hold, fight or flight, they are scared, scared, scared…the bear will take revenge. And it will.
Paulo Guerra says
Once again brilliant Alastair Crooke. And after so many years of reading Alastair, sometimes I still wonder how it is that there is still such a worthy Englishman? Perhaps because this ex-MI6 and ex-EU consultant abandoned England and the West in general to defend the peace with the Arab world that the US brought to the fore with GWOT. Just another cover for them to continue plundering resources after the dissolution of the USSR! And I also often think that the fastest way to fix the world was with a truly democratic UNSC with the BRICS+US+EU! A collegiate body that operated by majority without veto rights with all economic blocs represented! So one or two representatives from the Middle East and the Arab world would still have to be added. Because the US is capable of destroying the world to defend the hegemony of the US dollar that only benefits the true owners of America who are no longer Americans. As further proves this insane conflict.
Cagan’s wife is Victoria Nuland and they’re both Neocon Nazis.
Neo-Cons are actually Trotskyists.
I think another World War is inevitable. The propaganda in Europe is too massive and its politicians too servile or corrupt.
I would say helpless more than serville. Dull people with no idea how to solve the economic mess. So they will just let it all crash, that way they get to blame others and can run for election again.
The political class continue to avoid accountability for the financial mess most of the West are in. The incoming ones have no solutions.
They are the equivalent of someone who can’t pay rent or bill so sets everything on fire and then joins the line to claim for damage.
There is enough written naming those responsible for the economic rot and those maintaining it. Who refused to apply monopoly rules. Who permitted congress insider trading until recently.
Why are we here? Who got things to this point? Needs to be set out simply for the lay person.
Yo. Bush, Clinton, Obama….to name a few. What did you do?
Art Thomas says
What are these “monopoly rules”?
Another World War requires entire populations be mobilized.
None of the Western populations – including in Poland – are interested in fighting and dying, whatever their feckless “leaders” want.
Eric Newhill says
All the more reason that WW3 will be with missiles, bombers and, sooner or later, nukes (economic attacks having already failed).
Precision decapitation will have a powerful allure for the west. Hence the AD on Russian government buildings.
R. Toppec says
If you want to watch an old film on Polish and Ukraine history (drama) and the Cossacks, watch Taras Bulba with Yul Brynner and Tony Curtis on Tubitv.
Vallhall Rising says
I am not surprised that Poland and the Baltic States (now NATO members) are particularly hostile toward Russia…as we are all aware, they were all part of the Soviet Union and needless to say suffered under it…from WWII to the end of the Cold War.
There is also a large diaspora of Russians living in those countries today somewhat similar to the situation in the Eastern Ukraine where the people consider themselves Russian. It’s easy to see why Poland and the Baltics are a bit nervous–Putin used the protection of Russian peoples in the Ukraine as a basis for the SMO and Poland/Baltic States are afraid that they’re next.
IF/WHEN (more like “when”) the US decides to directly confront Russia (militarily) you can bet Poland and the Baltics will join that fight…the UK as well. As for the rest of NATO–they want no part of that.
Mike Krupa says
Correction: Poland was never part of the Soviet Union.
and Russia purchased the Baltic states from Sweden, long before it sold Alaska or the Louisiana purchase took place.
Maybe I’m wrong but I have the impression that the reason so many Russians moved to those states was because they had things somewhat better than Russia proper under the bolshevics.
Vallhalla Rising says
Thanks Mike…you of course are correct…I should have clarified by saying ” the Soviet Union annexed much of Eastern Poland during WWII and that Poland was a member of the Warsaw Pact.”
My wife and I took a short holiday in Estonia 5 years ago, not knowing much about the Baltics. The anti-Russian sentiment and contempt against Estonian Russians (comprising 25% of the population of Estonia) was quite shocking to us. Our tour guide was open, blatant, and unapologetic in her attitude, as though this was the norm in Estonia.
On our last Sunday in Tallin, we wandered into a Russian Orthodox service. It seemed both ancient and alien, and again we felt the non-acceptance of ethnic Russians. Our sympathies went spontaneous and completely to them.
Hate, like a festering boil, will eventually come to a point until it erupts in pus. I fear Poland and the Baltics are nearing that point.
Mondo Cane says
Putin used the protection of Russian peoples in the Ukraine as a basis for the SMO and Poland/Baltic States are afraid that they’re next.
Was that not a legitimate basis, after 7 years of UA’s civilian shelling and a looming Operation Storm 2.0? What happened to all those noble prognostications emanating from the ‘rules-based intl order’ that were used to justify past wars, like R2P (right to protect), the right to self determination as legitimate cause for extraconstitutional secession, adherence of internationally forged agreements to reintegrate the Donbass into Ukraine and a host of other ’tis for me but not for thee’ machiavellian inventions and buttressed by propaganda campaigns unparalleled in modern history.
And what Russian diaspora in Poland do you speak of? The one no one can spot without a microscope? Re: the Baltic states, if they want in on this victimization complex, then why have they seen fit to ignore EU requirements for equal treatment of all citizens, and why has the EU not held them to account? If they’re afraid of a Russian intervention, then I suggest their fear is born of a repressed shame for their own actions, a la telltale heart.
To hell with the lot of them. Based on their behavior and their behavior alone, the SMO became delayed but inevitable. Let them spend the next decade in a monastery fondling their worry beads while coping in reflection.
Hey Mondo…I agree that the Putin’s protection of Russian people in the Ukraine was a legit basis for the SMO my point was that Poland and the Baltics also treat Russian Diaspora with disdain and prejudice.
As far as the diaspora I was speaking of these are pretty good sources:
Thanks for your feedback .
Few will admit it, but in their treatment of their Russian minorities the Baltics are effectively Apartheid states, but without the fig leaf of apartheid’s “separate but equal” window dressing.
Given their apartheid policies, they should never have been admitted to either the EU or NATO. But, politics!
Very true. They even deny them passports. Forcing them to get Russian passports.
The racism is like apartheid.
Let’s not forget East Germans etc will admit they had great education, free healthcare under communism. They went from that, with no luxury goods, to a situation where all their youth flee to western Europe for jobs and the countries are emptying into Germany and England. What is left of those countries is tourism, European subsidies, cheap labour, sex and child trafficking, they have zero weight in EU decisions unless there is a veto and only Hungary has the balls to stand up to Europe and for it’s own.
Unfortunately the Baltics are prostitutes now. Corrupt. Jobless. Subsidised. Yet so proud to be part of the shiny West. I blame low self esteem.
Also we’re in not for Russia they would a be French or German if not Poles. They forget that bit.
Patrick Armstrong says
In fairness, this is not the case in Lithuania — the Russians (and other minorities there) have full citizenship.
That’s because they’re < 5% of the population.
Paul Greenwood says
They are no different in action from the way Poland abused Germans in Poland interwar. Danzig was a German City under League of Nations protection – Poland still tried to impose Polish language, Polish mailboxes, and in western. Poland cut links between Evangelische Kirche in Germany and Poland to obstruct German churches……..and schools.
Even British Embassy reports to London (see them in Kew) reported on Polish persecution of Germans in Poland. It was not wholly dissimilar in Czechoslovakia where Sudetenland was predominantly German for centuries yet Czechoslovak Government was seeking to change the ethnic mix by migration……….
Stalin simply purged Germans from Poland and Czechoslovakia – Poles set up camps where many died/were killed, their property was expropriated. 2 million a week were fleeing to Germany after 1945.
Stalin then had Poles from Galicia and Belarus transferred to the 100 mile corridor seized from Germany and granted to Poland – which is why Goerlitz is split down the centre with the river leaving the West Bank in Germany and the east bank in Poland with the bridge between blown in 1945 and not revolt until 1990s
Worth reading this too, http://www.ihr.org/jhr/v04/v04p135_Weber.html
just saying says
Their “love” for Russia stems from the days of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. They had their own attempt at conquering Russia back in the day, and went all the way to Moscow. You know how those things end.
Kaz Dziamka says
“I am not surprised that Poland and the Baltic States (now NATO members) are particularly hostile toward Russia…as we are all aware, they were all part of the Soviet Union and needless to say suffered under it…from WWII to the end of the Cold War.”
Really? And how do you know that? First, as Mike just said, Poland was not part of the Soviet Union. This ridiculous claim of yours disqualifies you as a serious debater on the issue. Also, unlike you, I actually lived in Poland during that time. And I can tell you I never “suffered.” What is more, I was a beneficiary of Socialist/Communist Poland’s free education and medical care–both of which are still a pipe dream in the US. When Poland was in ruins after the war, it was not the US or the West that helped Poland rebuild its devastated infrastructure. It was Russia. There was no “Marshall Plan” for Poland (or Russia).
Curt Nichols says
My Grandmother on my father’s side came over on the boat from Poland. She was a woman with a heavy hand and short patience for foolishness. If she was in Poland today, she would be bitch slapping people.
Poland is buying into the “Polish Sparta paid for with US aide money” plan. The US is falling back. We cannot meet recruitment goals for the military. We owe $31 Trillion. Our economy is failing. When the Ukraine debacle fails, and it will fail, we leave Europe. And Poland will be standing and looking at an intractable enemy. One with all the energy resources in the world right across the border. Idiots.
She was a great woman by the way. I had worthless and shiftless parents. But Grandparents that were all wonderful. I miss them dearly.
The Marine Corps made mission this year on personnel acquisition. As to the Army, it came short by 15,000 people, is that even true? The Air Force and the Navy also did not meet their quotas, but the Space Force did. The Marines are resisting “Wokedom” as best they can, I think, but their Commandant is another oxygen thief who wishes to fight the Chinese PLA and Navy by stationing Jarheads on oodles of “Wake Islands” in the Pacific 1st Island Chain. This, with missiles not yet invented, all the while being out-ranged by the Chinese missiles of today, never mind tomorrow’s missiles. Both Russia and China crank out much larger percentages of engineers than does the USA, ergo the gap will only grow, especially in AI. The Marine Corps has shed all of its’ tanks, a lot of artillery, and regimental and battalion-sized units, for the purpose of the Wake Islands’ forces of tomorrow. Stick a fork in them, they’re almost done.
Kaz Dziamka says
Ain’t that the truth? Haven’t the Poles learned that the best way to have security is to be on good terms with your neighbors! You don’t have to love them, you just need to have some respect for them. And you never, ever, threaten them with supplying deadly weapons to their enemies. And you never, ever insult your neighbors. Because they may never forget. And because, like Russia, they can wipe you out off the map with their apocalyptic weapons of mass destruction.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
And who’s going to do this? Is there anyone in a position of any power who can or dares to lead a revolution?
Because it will take a revolution.
T, Martin says
Since speculation is free: 1) Ukraine will be discarded as a burnt out proxy once it has been eviscerated.; 2) The US will continue to foment endless war by encouraging NATO to rearm for a future confrontation with Russiaso Europecan become a wasteland, ; 3) Russia will pursue a war economy in preparation for the latter; & 4) There will be a standoff and Asia will reap the benefits. The amazing thing is that everyone seems to do the same stupid things over and over again to no benefit to anyone.
Not quite. Some people do benefit. After all, the US did benefit from WW2. They hope to repeat the same outcome.
Or… (more likely) after discarding Ukraine the US/NATO will shift attention to China, which will cause economic/political damage to an already fragile western alliance (thanks, in part, to 2023/4 economic recession + winter 2024 EU energy crisis) and make the rest of the world move away from the US, accelerating the collapse of the dollar. – I think that , before the end of 2027, neither NATO nor the EU will exist (or will have completely shrunk). by 2028 Americans will either be living in a country that is openly a dictatorship,or , will see states like Hawaii and Texas declaring independence. Either way, the US will be a crime ridden sh*thole with a standard of living similar to El Salvador/Bolivia. – The map of Ukraine in this article is stuff of polish delusion, there is no way Belarus would allow Poland to take the 3 Ukrainian northern states, given all the comments I,ve heard from Lukashenko, Belarus will likely get all 3.
“1) Ukraine will be discarded as a burnt out proxy once it has been eviscerated.;”
As Greece has been after ww I.
Poland is ripe for proxy war patsy status.
Soon Ukraine will be flushed into oblivion. Step forward Poland.
Juan Valdez says
“The official justification for NATO was that its purpose was to defend Western Europe from Russian hordes who might attack Western Europe. Can’t ask how plausible that explanation was, but that at least that was the official explanation. Well, 1990-1991 — no Russian hordes. Natural conclusion — ok, let’s disband NATO. The opposite happens – NATO expanded. Its mission changed. The official mission of NATO became to control the international, the global energy system, pipelines. That means, to control the world…
I don’t think [The United States is] ready to go to war, but the commitment to sort of control the world is very strong. And pretty natural. After all, this is one global super-power. And this all goes a way back. So, the peak of American power in history was around 1945. In 1945 the United States literally had half the world’s wealth. And very naturally American leaders wanted to design and organize a world system which would benefit primarily domestic centers of power – that essentially means the U.S. corporate system. The origins of multi-national corporations began to develop at that time… And there were detailed plans for assigning to every part of the world, what was called, a function within the global system. That began to collapse very quickly. There is a lot of talk these days about American decline, which is correct, but it’s rarely recognized that the decline began at once. In 1949 there was a serious blow to the U.S. global hegemony – China’s independence. There’s a name for that in U.S. history and Western history. It is called “the loss of China”. Just think about this phrase for a minute. “Loss of China”. I mean, I can lose my computer, I can’t lose your computer, right? I can only lose what I own. And the assumption, the tacit assumption is – we own China, we own the world.”
-Noam Chomsky, ‘NATO is a U.S.-run intervention force’
Germany sending tanks to the Ukraine. Again.
Were they not punished enough last time.?
Will 2023 be 1945 for slow learners.
Thanks for the deeper dive on Polish-NATO politics. The 2000’s were bad. The whole DC talk about “new Europe” was a horrible con that’s now going dangerously wrong. Not to mention that “new Europe” is dependent on “old Europe” for its financial support. The Polish arms spending spree is going to hurt, especially if trade / remittance with / from “old Europe” gets crimped.
At some point the Poles are going to learn that they’ve been used by the US. The question is whether it will be in time. It seems that there’s the beginning of a rift between Polish people and Ukrainian refugees; IIRC the Polish government is one that’s starting to cut back on social support. This is the way old hatreds get rekindled. The “Ukrainians” hate the Poles and will turn on them if things go bad. The Poles have a few grievances that can be mustered too.
Poland is the perfect example that you should ALWAYS be judicious of who your friends are (and who you pledge to defend). But hey, dumb and dumber, deaf leading the blind and all that…
A friend of mine just got back from Ukraine. He went there for family reasons, and as a father of 3, by law is not eligible for conscription. He entered by plane from Moldova as he was warned not to enter via Poland. I’m not clear why not, and neither was he, just that someone on the ground said so. He’s from a town near the Polish border, so ethnic Ukrainian, but definitely no Nazi. (I have both Russian and Ukrainian friends, which can be awkward to say the least).
As soon as he arrived he was sent to take a medical exam and was declared fit for service. He pointed out that being a father of three he was exempt. The reply was ‘that’s true now, but may not be true next week or month, so we still require an exam.’ He entered on a Canadian passport, but since that shows your place of birth, as far as they’re concerned he’s Ukrainian. Something to bear in mind if you’re a dual national.
He reports that his village only has power for 6 hours a day, and that anyone on the street after 10pm is arrested and detained. Same situation in Kiev, which he visited on his way to the Donbass to see a friend at the front. I don’t know how he made it there, but he did, and shared a video of his friend firing what looked like a 30 cal. machine gun from inside a trench. Whether he was firing at anything or just for the camera I’m not sure, but what stood out, which my friend pointed out, is that he had no helmet or flak vest.
My friend reports that equipment and supplies are scarce, and that there’s really no cohesion or leadership on the front, just guys sitting in trenches praying they don’t get hit by artillery.
His friend gave him an MRE (meals ready to eat) as a parting gift. Leaving the country, customs searched his bags and gave him a hard time about it. Why do you have this, where did you get it, that sort of thing. Later he learned that his friend had been wounded and was taken to the rear. Didn’t say how badly, but at least he was evacuated. Many aren’t that lucky.
It’s just his opinion of course, but he feels from talking to the guys that a rebellion in the lower ranks is at hand. This confirms some of the video we’ve seen from the front. How likely this is he couldn’t say, but the sentiment is there and openly expressed now. This suggests to me that their minders aren’t anywhere near the front, but still, the only way out at present is to cross the line and surrender, which has its own risks. It also means abandoning the guys in your unit, which is a hard pill to swallow. I suspect many of the MIAs have done exactly that, so they’re not actually casualties, they’re just not listed as deserters for obvious reasons.
I thought I would add this to the conversation since it was first hand. Anecdotal of course, but it at least gives a sense of what’s going on and confirms some of the details we’re hearing from alt-media and independent journalists.
Historically, militaries that have taken enormous losses and face taking more enormous losses – have a tendency to frag their leaders.
No doubt Ukraine is aware of this and has its police battalions and secret service hard at work, but I do wonder how long this can continue if indeed 150K/160K Ukrainian servicemen have died already. That number would be far more than a decimation (10%) which was the Roman ultimate penalty for military failure.
Mike: Thanks very much for this highly informative and well-written article. I see from Southfront lately that there’s still dissension in the ranks of Poland’s former and current leaders – a healthy sign, I suspect (or at least hope):
Warsaw Considered The Possibility Of Dividing Ukraine In February 2022
Mike Krupa says
Indeed! The two factions of post-Solidarity are going at it as to who is more anti-Russian. Sadly, there still remains only one consequential voice in the parliament, who BTW has been banned from most mainstream outlets, and that is MP Grzegorz Braun.
mr.. johnson – very interesting article
it seems to me the poor poles have always been used since ww1 by the usa-brit led west as an icebreaker for any major european conflict they want to get going. If i recall correctly McGregor said that in 1939 they thought they could defeat Germany and found that not to be the case . the poles also thought that the brits and french would have their backs which did not happen during the phony war of the western front of 39-40. If the french and english would have truly honoured their comittment to poland they would have declared war on russia as well when they entered poland a couple of weeks later.
i think they are being set up again as the next icebreaker if the ukraine one sinks to be used against russia and the results will be the same as 2 generations ago as gonzalo and other analysts have stated.
Or there could be an all around deal to put into place the map on your article above.
this would then leave germany totally neutered and totally energy dependent on the rest of the west. . I believe that the german military especially is waking up to the fact that the way the collective west is handling this conflict is to destroy them as well as russia; especially if they allow themselves to become disarmed by sending all their their arms to ukraine through poland and having nothing to defend themselves with if poland turns on them to collect the 1.3 trillion poland demands in reparations to help fund the infrastrusture of their new territory and to help pay for their new citizens. this is nothing more than a new versaille treaty and we all know how the last one worked out long term.
these were medvedevs predictions from late last year which included internal eu and continental usa strife
Especially since my ancestral roots from both sides of my family come from germany, poland, ukraine and russia i wish that these countries would just bury the hatchet and make peace. If they were to re-establish good economic ties and trade the prosperity of all of the citizens of these nations could be like the america of kennedy before the rot set in . these hopeful pre-johnson yrs were not perfect but way better than we have know.
Unfortunately due to the ethnic hatred from the last 2 world wars and the interference of the collective west from so called elites like soros in the affairs of these 4 nations ;this does not look like it will happen soon .
this ex colonel also put out a good podcast that those in power will do anything to keep it and the status qo
Mr. johnson – it looks like the narritive may be changing. am sure you will in time do an article on what you think is going on .
1) the respect for the wef is waning as guys like musk stayed away
2) prominent guy says the antivaxxers have won and musk says after the shots he felt he was dying – article below
3) looks like they want biden out
4) documents found in pences house too- i never liked him from day 1- maybe we should check out basements also lol – article below
5) scandals, firings and resignations in ukraine reported by the mainstream press
6) according to alex of the duran; germany tells poland to send the leopards they already have to the ukraine for what i think are obvious reasons
7) trans pm of new zealand resigns; although the reported replacement looks like it could be worse
from a biblical perspective i found this video to be quite fascinating. according to the author of it the times we are living in are in parallel to what happened during the life of and the 40 yrs after the death of Jesus Christ. It could also help explain what the mystery babylon of revelation 18 is.
Saturn Death Cult Part 5 of 7– Troy McLachlan
will leave with some humor and a melody i really like .
shows how paul newman kept the leadership of the gang
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid (1969) – Knife Fight Scene (1/5) | Movieclips
John Williams – Cavatina (Theme From The Deer Hunter)
Ukraine is the first of the Nato Wars. Poland and the Baltics are on deck.
Poland has expansion on the brain and is being encouraged by a big kid on the block…. interesting to note the recent reshuffle and purging of the Ukrainian public officials is by an anticorruption department closely controlled by the U.S…..it is possible the U.S is shuffling things around to take control directly of the war…. outright escalation timed with the symbolism of German tanks rolling East. They are all insane
In 1981 I was doing volunteer work for a Vancouver based agency assisting political refugees, mostly from Latin America. Suddenly we started getting Polish sailors who’d defected from Poland’s Pacific fishing fleet, which used to provision and repair in Vancouver. Entire crews walked off, and when they sent replacements, they’d head straight to immigration and declare refugee status. Several trawlers were stranded in Vancouver for months because of this, and they eventually had to hire foreign crews to get their ships back.
Poland was the first shoe to drop which eventually encompassed the entire eastern bloc, USSR included. So my question is this: Given that everyone was on the same page back then, why the animosity towards Russia, which also shucked off communism and became at least as democratic as Poland? Why can’t they see the commonality of their situation, both then and now? I’ve had Ukrainian, Russian and Polish friends over the years – still do – and I frankly can’t see any difference between them. All were great guys who just wanted to marry a nice girl and settle down, which they eventually did.
I honestly don’t believe the Polish people share the same attitude as their government. I see them as captive in the same sense as most Ukrainians are. Very sad when you consider what they went through to get rid of one dictatorship, only to have it replaced by another. Only Russia, Belarus and Hungary seem to have broken the pattern, and yet they’re held up as villains by the rest of the former Warsaw treaty nations. I just find that absurd.
I think we’ve identified, right behind the UK, a prime suspect in blowing up Nordstream II.
Cutting Edge says
Interesting speculation today by Alex at the Duran about the potential that the MBTs, APCs etc now being thrown by NATO members willy nilly into this conflict are NOT intended to shore up the contact line in the east as they wish everyone to believe, but instead employed as an intervention/annexation force in the west, well away from the current conflict. He may be on to something…
Consider the following, factoring in that the fuckwits in DC et al have no reverse gear (my, rather than Alex’s speculations in the Duran video linked below):
1) The logistics nightmare of servicing and maintaining the hardware which, if sent east, would all have to be shipped back 500 miles to Poland, as opposed to being in situ just over the border.
2) The absolute minimum 6 months training required for Ukrainians to acquire even a modicum of competency with the MBTs, Bradleys etc being supplied, as opposed to using experienced NATO (and likely Polish) or possibly “sheep-dipped” soldiers that would not be (at least initially) anywhere near the contact line with the Russians.
3) Poland’s 200k mobilization, and the fact that they were considering moving into the Lviv area in the first ten days of the SMO. Not to mention their broken record rhetoric about recovering lost territory.
4) The likelihood that NATO could claim they are “saving” western Ukraine from Russian aggression. And also claiming some kind of face-saving victory as a result.
5) The Russians stating they have no long term ambitions with respect to western Ukraine. Maybe the Poles think they can get away with a stand-off once in occupation?
6) Any force in Lviv could receive AA protection (for what its worth against Kinzhals) from just over the border in Poland.
7) The US would be more than willing to use Poles as proxies, if the Poles are stupid enough to acquiesce.
I think the announcement today that the US are considering throwing 30-50 Abrams into the mix lends a lot of credence to Alex’s theory, because (aside from the logistics nightmare and inexperienced tank crew aspects), I can’t see the Pentagon risking the humiliation of having their Abrams having their arses handed to them in the hot zone where Russia has total superiority. They may be thinking 50 miles from the Polish border, with time to build a defence line and a modicum of AA protection, is viable.
Well worth a watch.
I’m willing to bet 200 that no “operable” Abrams tank will ever appear to the east of the Dnieper (operable being the key word, because if the war moves westward, the Rooskies could end up with more than a few Abrams carcusus on their hands, which in keeping with tradition, they will then haul back to mother Russia as museum pieces).
It’s a risky bet I’m willing to make, as the Abrams does have a jet engine, which would allow it to race across one of the Dnieper bridges that hasn’t been blown (all of them?) at 50++ mph (!), fire its gun, take a few snapshots, that sort of thing, to then beat a hasty retreat back across the same unblown bridge – at truly remarkable speeds, it must be said, for such a monster of tank.
This is assuming the bridge will support its weight of course.
And thusly I would lose the bet, to a cheap propaganda photo-op.
I’m also willing to bet 50, that no Leopard II, regardless of iteration or national origin, will get blown up anywhere near this current contact line.
The Leopard’s role in this conflict will be to drive into the northern cities of Ukraine and park there until those cities find themselves surrounded. Then these Leopards, all 30 of them, will attempt to smash their way out of these urban centers to link up with nothing in particular.
This pointless activity will come to be known as, the final Death Rides* of the UkieReich.
*More like little itty bitty mini-Death Rides truth be told. It’s not like old days, when an entire SS Panzer division would gloriously impale itself on 10,000 Red Army guns.
Alex Thrace says
The longer this conflict goes on the less viable whatever is left of western Ukraine will be, Rump Ukraine, Poland might just be hoping for that result which could allow them to take swaths of the country that many Poles consider rightly theirs.
I can’t help but wonder what Poland game is here.
I have a different view of the outcome of this war than most, perhaps overly optimistic, but here it is, for the record as Andrei would say:)
I see the Ukrainian military turning on their government at some not too distant point. Perpetrators and their supporters will flee west, leaving the roughly 3/4 of the population that never wanted this Slava Ukraini nonsense in the first place. Some may have always opposed that, others will have a change of heart. No matter, as long as they weren’t involved in the criminal side of things. Those who were will be hunted down, and Ukrainians will take the lead in that effort.
Some form of a referendum will take place, and the result will not be a neutral nation, but an ally of Russia. The entire country. Whether Odessa reverts to Russia is an open question, but it won’t matter that much because everyone will be too busy rebuilding. That will go remarkably fast, and the point won’t be missed that life is definitely better as part of an alliance with Russia than as a disposable proxy of NATO and the EU.
Here’s why I think that. If you can assemble a military campaign of the size and breadth that Russia has, while still enjoying a reasonably comfortable life at home, then you can do exactly the same thing with a fleet of trucks, construction equipment, and the financing to back it from oil revenue. It would be even easier actually, since no one will be shooting at you. With rebuilding comes jobs and security, so cooperation with be forthcoming. An added bonus is that what was destroyed will be replaced with state-of-the art technology, so Ukraine will actually start to look, feel and act like a modern state.
This isn’t going to happen overnight, but I don’t see any alternative from Russia’s standpoint, and frankly, the notion that Ukraine would become a burden under those circumstances is as laughable as the stories we’re told about how weak Russia is. Ukraine is potentially a rich country. They’re only poor because they were robbed, not because they ran out of resources, and if there’s any nation that understands the principles of real economy vs. financial, it’s Russia, so you have a convergence of interests on both sides.
One thing I’m sure of if my scenario comes to pass, it will be done honestly and leave Ukraine with her dignity. Russia will have an opportunity to show the world that it stands by its principles, and that alone will open many doors that until now have been closed.
Optimistic, granted, but that’s what I think will happen.
Your view is reasonable – hence why the Ukrainian police battalion and secret services are hard at work.
HMS Terror says
Whether it happens or not will be determined by the vicissitudes of war, but I think you’re pretty close to the mark Russia’s aiming for. Namely, Chechnia 2.0.
Ukraine would be lucky indeed if Russia succeeds, given that Europe is headed for decline and eventual irrelevancy.
Gentlemen, don’t you think that the “optimistic” scenario described by bear is a scenario for the restoration of not only the USSR-2, but also the Union of Mutual Economic Assistance of the Warsaw Pact countries?
If anything, I, as a Russian, am against it. For the simple reason that you should not step on the same rake a second time. Not to mention the fact that it is not worth re-starting a friendship with someone who once betrayed.
HMS Terror says
USSR-1 included a lot peoples that were not Russian and lands that were never part of Russia. Putin’s said on a number of occasions that it was a Frankenstein monster should never have been.
OTOH, 75% of Ukraine’s people voted against independence little more than 1 generation ago. 1 generation later, many had succumbed to intense, occasionally forced de-Russification. That 70% voted for Zelenskyi’s peace and reconciliation message in the last election indicates they weren’t totally de-Russified.
So, if it happens as ebear suggests, I see re-Russification of traditionally Russian lands, but I don’t see a USSR-2 developing. Even less do I see a Mutual Economic Assistance pact of any sort extending beyond Russia’s newly “liberated” territories and perhaps including Belarus under the Union State framework.
Dear HMS Terror, in fact, everything is much more complicated. The devil, as they say, hides in the details. But this is not a topic of conversation here. I just can’t explain thoroughly what you’re wrong about..
Watching you has told me that you are a very smart person. Over time, if you’re interested, you’ll figure it out for yourself.
I will only say that the Union State with Belarus is a profanation and that the de-russification of the population of Ukraine has gone too deep in the eastern regions not to cause problems for Russians in the near future. Russians will need a lot of money, a lot of effort, a lot of cordiality, a lot of patience, and no one guarantees the result, at least such as with the Chechens.
HMS Terror says
“… everything is much more complicated.”
No doubt, it always is. Re-Russification is not a multi-year project. It’s a multi-decade, maybe even multi-generational project.
In a nutshell, I see no real options for either side. Whatever’s left of the artificial construct called “Ukraine” will lack the economic/civilizational gravitas to make a go of it on its own. It will inevitably be faced with a choice between a failing West and a rising Russia. For Russia, it’s obliged to heal some historical wounds if it’s to maintain its leadership position in the Multipolar World order.
“Russians will need a lot of money, a lot of effort, a lot of cordiality, a lot of patience, and no one guarantees the result…” Of course. Nobody says it’ll be easy, but it the issue cannot be ignored.
Thanks for your very relevant thoughts.
Poland is the proverbial skunk in the wood pile. See the work of Canadian historian, Michael Carley, including his forthcoming trilogy on Stalin’s diplomatic efforts before WW2.
For a taste, read this:
Seeing that many of the politicians in “neo-Nazi” Ukraine are Jews, or of Jewish descent, I wondered if the same may have been true in Nazi Germany. So, I checked the surnames of a large number of people from the Nazi era. What I found is truly amazing. Note that all surnames designated Jewish can be found in one of Alexander Beider’s books on Jewish Genealogy.
Adolf Hitler [Jew surname].
Below is a list of Nazi Field Marshalls.
Looks like they were all of Jewish descent.
Fedor von Bock [Jew surname].
Werner von Blomberg [Jew surname].
Walther von Brauchitsch = Brauch-itsch [Jew surname-son of]
Ernst von Busch [Jew surname].
Hermann Göring = Gör-Ring [Jew surname-Jew surname] Luftwaffe.
Wilhelm Ritter von Leeb [variant of Jew surname Lieb?]
Wilhelm Keitel [Jew surname].
Albert Kesselring = Kessel-Ring [Jew surname-Jew surname] Luftwaffe.
Ewald von Kleist [Jew surname].
Gunther von Kluge [Jew surname].
Georg von Küchler [Jew surname].
Wilhelm List [Jew surname].
Erich von Manstein [Jew surname]. Born Lewinski [Jew surname].
Erhard Milch [Jew surname] Luftwaffe.
Walther Model [Jew surname].
Friedrich von Paulus [variant of the Jew surname Paul?]
Walther von Reichenau = Reiche-Nau = [Jew surname-Jew surname]
Erwin Rommel [variant of Jew names Frommel and Trommel?]
Gerd von Rundstedt = Rund-stedt [Jew surname-town]
Ferdinand Schörner [variant of the Jew surname Tschorne?]
Hugo Sperrle = Sperr-le = [Jew surname-common suffix] Luftwaffe.
Erwin von Witzleben [variant of Witzler-ben? Jew surname-son of]
Those of Jewish descent in Hitler’s life (non-military).
Martin Bormann [Jew surname]. Hitler’s private secretary. Money man.
Eva Braun [Jew surname]. Hitler’s mistress and wife.
Hans Frank [Jew surname]. Hitler’s lawyer.
Ulrich Graf [Jew surname]. Hitler’s personal companion 1920-1923.
Gertrud Junge [Jew surname] nee Gertrud Humps. Hitler’s private secretary.
Theodor Morell [Jew surname]. One of Hitler’s personal physicians.
Karl Brandt [Jew surname]. One of Hitler’s personal physicians.
Albert Speer [Jew surname]. Hitler’s personal architect and city planner.
Fritz Wiedemann [Jew surname]. Personal adjutant to Hitler.
Julius Schreck [Jew surname]. Hitler’s chauffeur.
Karl von Frank [Jew surname]. Hitler’s genealogist.
Hugo Blaschke [Jew surname]. Hitler’s dentist.
Hugo Erlanger [Jew surname]. Hitler’s landlord for ten years.
Adolf Eichmann [Jew surname]. Head of the Scientific Museum for Jewish Affairs.
Rudolf Hess [Jew surname]. Deputy to the Fuehrer.
Heinz Guderian [Jew surname]. General. Tank expert.
Heinrich Himmler [Jew surname]. Leading National Socialist politician.
Alfred Rosenberg [Jew surname]. Leading proponent of National Socialist ideology.
Wilhelm Messerschmitt [Jew surname]. Aircraft designer and manufacturer.
Hjalmar Schacht [Jew surname]. Financier, president of the Reichsbank.
Joseph Goebbels [variant of the Jew surname Göbel?] National Socialist politician and propagandist.
Reinhard Heydrich = Heyd-Rich [Jew surname-Jew surname] Administrator of the concentration camps.
იოსებ ჯუღაშვილი [variant of the Jew name ჯუდაშვილი] (Joseph Stalin) General Secretary of the Soviet Union; ჯუდაშვილი translated means “son of Judah”.
Mikhail Gorbachev [variant of the Jew name Gorbaczyński?] President of the Soviet Union
Boris Yeltsin [variant of the Jew name Peltson?] President of Russia
Angela Merkel [Jew surname] nee Kasner [Jew surname] Chancellor of Germany
Olaf Sholtz [variant of the Jew name Shultz?] Chancellor of Germany
Annalena Baerbock = Baer-Bock [Jew surname-Jew surname] German Foreign Minister
Adolf Hitler [Jew surname] Chancellor of Germany
Franklin Roosevelt [variant of the Jew name Rosenfelt] President USA
George Bush [variant of the Jew name Busch?] President USA
Donald Trump [variant of the Jew name Trumpf?] President USA
Lech Kaczyński [Jew surname] President of Poland
Jarosław Kaczyński [Jew surname] Prime Minister of Poland
Mateusz Morawiecki [variant of the Jew names Morawiec Morawietz etc] Prime Minister of Poland
Jaap Scheffer [Jew surname] NATO Secretary General 2004-2009
Jens Stoltenberg [variant of the Jew name Stoltzenberg?] NATO Secretary General 2014-
Charles Michel [Jew surname] European Council President
Ursula von der Leyen [Jew surname] nee Albrecht [Jew surname] President of the European Commission
As the article from an israeli newspaper below says “History is not so black and white“ which is why i find history fascinating and contradictory at the same time.
from another article read that 22 of the below became generals.
Al Nevsky says
Just because a Jew is using a name does not mean that you can safely assume that everyone who has that name is a Jew. They are shapeshifters.
Philip Garber says
Very few of those on your list are exclusively Jewish surnames. My own extended family includes the “Jewish” names of Garber, Wenger, Lehman, Blankenberg, Bomberger and Cressman and none of those people are or ever were Jews.
Can Poland unequivocally and absolutely renounce claims on historical Ruthenia [Galicia] within Ukraine borders?
Can Germany do same viz Danzig, East Prussia, environs within Poland borders?
Are answers more likely than not: no & no?
Who would be in a position to enforce either of these potential borders –now?
In old days, post WWII, that be Uncle Sam.
Genie now out of the bottle says these borders now lack an unquestioned, sole, enforcer.
In a way, though surely not exactly, like how Great Britain kinda imagined they could still make promises following WWI, — what are current promises now worth, to Poland, Germany, and for this matter, France and her eastern Alsace and Lorraine [etc]?
These are just most obvious, low-hanging fruit sorts of conundrums NATO self-destruction invites.
It is true: some opine about USA splitting up, maybe TexIT, CalIT, etc. . . who knows. . . it seem to me European borders are at least as much, and possibly more ripe for the pickings of alteration.
At end of day, nation-state defined by: ability to enforce and secure her borders.
Polish masses understand this even as elites running Poland pretend not to; ditto Germany, France, etc. . . .
Signal difference at this time, between US/NATO states, compared to Russian Federation is: RF is actually run by the person we know whom is this nation’s president.
US/NATO — the faces we see of their political/titular heads of state, in fact, are not actually in full control and are not actually running those countries. And thus alienation: between these figureheads, and their masses — in contradistinction to, as in RF.
NATO/US [elites] can deny the consequences of what they imagine they are accomplishing at this this time; they can never and cannot escape the consequences of those consequences! And from this we can begin to glean however vague outlines on what’s coming. . . .perhaps.
PS: “”One can argue than that one of the reasons such statements are made and such policies are pursued is because Warsaw feels it has the full backing of NATO’s most important player, the United States.””
One can argue than that one of the reasons such statements are made and such policies are pursued is because ? ? ? feels it has the full backing of NATO’s most important player, the United States.
This is the heart of the matter.
James Walter says
“Useful Idiots” for the WEF. If we take the stated goals of the WEF: Corona, Green, Ukraine, High interest rates, and economic collapse of EU are all working – well! There is no intent to “win” against Russia. That would be contrary to Nietzsche’s “law” (I think it is a law, not a theory) “Beware a person who makes their living fighting an enemy for they have a vested interest in keeping that enemy alive” (Das Leben des Feindes. – Wer davon lebt, einen Feind zu bekämpfen, hat ein Interesse daran, daß er am Leben bleibt.) This was already proven by NATO’s expansion after the fall of he Soviet Union – they have and will always want the conflict. So fear not a total nuclear war since that would remove the “need” for more weapons. Fear a false flag tactical nuke to galvanize and propel the US/Nato war machine production
Bill Osborne Jr says
Paul Damascene says
Nice to see your name, and your insights.
Guessing you’d come out of hiatus for a Gorbachev retrospective.
But you’re still among us?
They’re showing Lviv as Polish in that map and I beg to differ. It was indeed under Poland at one point in history, but it retains Orthodox rituals (even though under Rome) because it is historically an Orthodox enclave. The papacy was forced on that area, leaving them in the never, never land of not having both feet fully in either camp.
just saying says
They are called Uniats, and hate Russians and (Russian) Orthodox Church, just like everyone under Vatican does. As far as their feet go, both of them have always been fully in the Nazi camp (with sidefect of killing Poles on occasion, in addition to Russians). Poles are up for some revenge, and it’s going to be a real shitshow there in decades to come.
Les Priest says
Larry & friends,
I posted earlier that Poland went on a shopping spree for military hardware. Just about everything, with co production deals for a lot of the Korean stuff. No one is sure how it’s going to be paid for!
About 2 years back, the Polish Gen Staff war-gamed a fight with Russia. They awarded themselves F35s & Abrams tanks, which still haven’t been delivered. In the war-game, Warsaw was surrounded on day 5. Lots of empty talk by the generals.
I have never seen so much hate from a nation (Poland) to its brother (Russia) and the devil (West) know how to stir it up.
Are we about to witness the beggining of a polish diaspora?
Bill Osborne Jr says
The only group who hates Russia and Russians more than the Polish elite are the Jewish Neocons who have total control over western foreign policy. They don’t care if the west get destroyed as long as they survive and can immigrate to Israel.
Bill – alex of the duran says the neocons that they really want crimea back. from what i have read from a few sources many jewish people believe that israel is too crowded and vulnerable; that many jewish people want to move back to crimea and south ukraine which is where many ended up as the desendents of the survivors of the rebellion against the romans in 70 AD which ended with the destruction of jerusulum and the temple. It would be allot better to just make a deal with putin to allow acceptable immigration in than to get others to take it by force for you. Also unlike the propaganda putin does not hate jewish people;unfortunately their is always a certain element that always wants war,
Make our day! says
The hyena of Europe, as Churchill called Poland, should be very careful over what it does and says. Else it will be wiped off the map of the world.
Jackals he called them I believe.
another steve says
Poland’s striving for independence in the 1980s set off a chain of events that led to the downfall of the Soviet Union.
Poland is stuck between Russia on the east and Germany on the west.
We can only be grateful for the sea.
Paul Greenwood says
You mean Solidarnosc funded through the Vatican and Karol Wotyla using US funding ……so why do you think Poland succeeded in 1990 and not in 1956 or 1963 or 1968 ?
Might it be Mikhail Gorbachev ?
On the other hand Gierek had gone on a borrowing binge after 1970 to import consumer goods to buy off protest………but he could not service the dent to Western banks and had to raise food prices………..sounds so similar to 2023 in Western Europe and USA
another steve says
No, Solidarity was funded by the Polish trades unions. The people.
Before the Catholics jumped on board.
Not in 1956 or 1963 or 1968 because the Soviets grew tired of seeing themselves slaughtering innocent people on Western TV.
“Even Poland, the most faithless and unreliable Slavic tribe, after the Second World War for a long time established itself in very generous borders, which still no one questions. Except, of course, the Poles themselves, who like to remember that Lviv is a Polish city.
Alas, Poles are historically forgetful and again do not remember the basic principle of their native history: as soon as Poland gapes at some piece of neighbors, a crow flies into the mouth instead of the expected piece. Flies in for a long time, shits profusely and croaks deafeningly.” —
Sergey Helemendik (now deceased Member of the Slovak Parliament), January 1, 2009
I have not seen it mentioned often if ever but Poland’s lower 80% did very well post WW2 in soviet controlled Poland, probably the best in 500 years. You never hear this because they didn’t control the press and didn’t have any voice. Aristos never cared about people much, which worked both ways as people never wanted to support their ill conceived insurrections against the Russians. The last example being Warsaw Uprising (nominally against Nazis but in reality against the Soviets) that never had a chance of success and ended with the Capital levelled and 200 000 civilians dead. After the war the aristocrats escaped west (like they always did), mostly to UK then in 1990 were parachuted back and here we are now.
HMS Terror says
Animosity between Poland and Russia is as old as Europe itself.
In a grossly (over)simplified nutshell…
The two converted to opposing sides just as the Great Schism divided the continent between the Roman and Eastern Churches. The dispute was prima facie doctrinal, but as the idea of nationhood had not yet been born the Church was the most powerful political entity on the continent. Its power could be called civilizational. When it split in two, it divided Europe politically, and ultimately civilizationally into two opposing blocks.
The Mongol conquest of Russia and the destruction of Constantinople 200 yrs later cemented the divide further.
The Great Schism left the Roman Church to define the civilization that would become Western Europe, and a fundamental part of that definition was that everything beyond its purview, christian, heathen or otherwise, was anathema – to be feared or despised in turn, according to the threat it presented.
As a politically fragile frontline state, Poland both feared and despised the Mongolian Rus and then the powerful Russian Empire that arose when the Mongols left the scene. After a few centuries of that, it’s become part of the Polish ruling classes’ DNA.
just saying says
Yep. Same thing happend in the Balkans, with bonus religion added by Ottoman Empire.
HMS Terror says
There was a pre-existing “bonus religion” on the Great Schism’s fault line north of the Black Sea as well. Namely, Prince Vladimir’s destruction of the Khazarian kingdom coincided with his conversion to Orthodoxy.
By the mid 10thC, the net result was Roman Catholics on one side of the civilizational divide, Byzantine Orthodox on the other, and a large number of wandering Jews in the middle.
Not a recipe for peace & understanding. An unstable millennium followed.
2014, leaked by Polish magazine Wprost:
“According to a transcript of excerpts of the conversation that was published by Wprost on its Internet site, Sikorski told Rostowski: “You know that the Polish-US alliance isn’t worth anything.”
US MARKETS LOADING…
In the news
Polish Foreign Minister Says Alliance With US Is ‘Complete Bulls—‘ In Lewd Leaked Comments
Reuters Jun 23, 2014, 1:42 PM
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (L) shakes hands with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski during a brief meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels April 2, 2014. REUTERS/Jacquelyn Martin/Pool
A Polish news magazine said on Sunday it had obtained a secret recording of Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, in contention for a senior European Union job, saying that Poland’s relationship with the United States was worthless.
The Wprost news magazine said the recording was of a private conversation earlier this year between Sikorski and Jacek Rostowski, a member of parliament with the ruling Civic Platform who until last year was finance minister.
The magazine did not say who recorded the conversation, or how it obtained the recording.
Aides to Sikorski and Rostowski said they had no immediate comment. A government spokeswoman said it was hard to form a view based on a few excerpts of a conversation, but there might be a comment later.
According to a transcript of excerpts of the conversation that was published by Wprost on its Internet site, Sikorski told Rostowski: “You know that the Polish-US alliance isn’t worth anything.”
“It is downright harmful, because it creates a false sense of security … Complete bullshit. We’ll get in conflict with the Germans, Russians and we’ll think that everything is super, because we gave the Americans a blow job. Losers. Complete losers.”
According to the transcript, Sikorski described Warsaw’s attitude towards the United States using the Polish word “murzynskosc.””
And the tragedy for Germany is that the idiots in german goverment do not see that. They consider Russia as their enemy.
They didn’r recognize that the german enemies in Europe are:
In the Nato the German enemies are:
At least one of them declared unofficially war to Germany destroying the North Stream pipelines.
just saying says
“As the war in Ukraine approaches its one-year anniversary one of the few things that have remained constant is the Polish governments firm backing of the regime in Kiev.”
The only firm “backing” they will get is a firm knife in the back once the time is right. The map shown has been on the Internet since 2014.
Giving part of 404 to Poland will negate the narrative about defending “Banderistan territorial integrity” ; Why sending weapons to defend the integrity none respects anyway ?
How can a claim on Crimea or Donbass be regarded as a legit afterwards ?
Sending tanks won’t change a thing. Without any cover they’re just expensive coffins , even far from the front-line , missiles can reach’em.
Do you know about Russian loitering ammunition ? Yes ? Did you know they have a rocket/missile delivered version ?
Dear Larry, Your work for people is amazing. You show us things from different angles. Thanks for that. My opinion and point of view on Poland and its seizure of the historical territory of Ukraine. The US has it very well thought out. As a vassal of the USA, Poland is annexing part of Ukraine, which means that a NATO base closer to the borders of Russia, Belarus and Kaliningrad may appear on the annexed land in the future. It is not wise, but our neighbor Poland is full of historical ambitions, which it has not had for a long time. I wish you good health and a clear mind in your work. Michael
Janet Contursi says
By the way the Poles are out-warhawking the NATO warhawks, you’d be tempted to suspect that they believe there will be some great reward for them at the end of the rainbow. Like a good chunk of Ukraine falling into Warsaw’s hands.
war saw says
A chunk so big that they will choke on it.
Poles, Lithuanians, Galicians, I’m writing as a german mundane-astrologer, dirtied by the dirty innocence of our german good-Menschen. German Tanks in Ukraine – again. Shameless people.
Incredible things happen: green fascists ruling for boundless immigration, sponsored by super-demon-Jew George Soros.
And there the sorrow and fascination by the current apocalypse,
is tearing our psyche off balance.
But the gods/lights/planets/archetypes keep spinning around Sun and us, and the fourth week of 2023 keeps establishing new borders:
“In Focus: the Current Archetypus of ‘man’ lost in the West- And The New Time”
Of course, they will not be able to weaken Russia. But they will probably destroy the EU easily.
Wayne Root can now boast of his Trump. But the Democrats just need one of them to successfully assassinate the governor of Florida and then blame Mago for it, as like Pelosi.
The euro is the competition of the dollar, but Desantis and Trump are the competition of Harris, Biden, Newsom, etc.
Sorry for my bad english.
This link is extremely interesting as to why the Deep State (or rather Neocon) leadership shot their brains out in such a way. It might give us a little glimpse of why.
Read for yourself:
Michel - Louis LONCIN says
Mais c’est que la PARANOÏA polonaise se nourrit de l’Histoire de la Pologne qui, après avoir AGRESSE une Russie TRES faible durant le “Temps des troubles (1595-1619) puis tout au long du XVIIème siècle, a, au XVIIIème, payé TRES CHER son IMPERIALISME et la Division contre elle-même … Reconstituée à DEUX reprises au XXème (la seconde fois, du fait de Staline qui a été BEAUCOUP TROP généreux à son égard !), elle a entrepris de se VENGER de ses propres fautes sur le dos de la Russie … d’accord avec les Etats-Unis qui ne l’utilise que comme “homme de paille” … “condotierre” … Le temps viendra où la Pologne devra PAYER le Prix de ce Pacte faustien avec le “Méphistophélès” étatsunien …
The character of a people, as well as an individual, is Fate.