The line dividing consensus from group think is narrow and not well defined. There are four principal agencies in the U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) who actually produce raw intelligence — the CIA, the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency and the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
Why is this important? The USIC is on the record supporting the analytical conclusion that Russia is in trouble, Putin is on the ropes and Ukraine can expel Russia from Ukrainian territory as long as it gets the necessary support. How can so many people with advanced degrees from top flight universities be so blind and so deluded? The answer is simple — the USIC is a collection of gargantuan bureaucracies that do not encourage or promote thinking out of the box. Any analyst inclined to engage in counter intuitive or counter narrative analysis is not just ignored. He or she will be punished and, in some cases, fired or shuffled off to dead end jobs.
Let me take you inside the process I experienced as an analyst. I would arrive at my desk in the Central America Branch of the Middle America Caribbean Division of the Office of Africa and Latin American Affairs (ALA) around 7am and had to quickly read a 6 inch stack of paper containing the latest intelligence in order to identify any issues that would merit producing an article for the National Intelligence Daily or the Presidential Daily Brief. (Can you smell the bureaucracy?)
The intelligence I perused consisted of messages from State Department and Embassies overseas, intercepted voice and electronic communications courtesy of the NSA, DIA human intelligence reports and CIA human intelligence reports. Let’s say that after my review I knitted together several pieces of intelligence showing that the Central American leaders were working in secret to produce a peace plan that ran counter to the policy of the President of the United States regarding Nicaragua. I would go to the morning Branch meeting, brief my colleagues and Branch Chief on the story and would get the green light to produce an analytical piece explaining the particulars of the Central American plan.
For the sake of illustration, let us assume that I used a CIA and a DIA human intel report, a message from the U.S. Embassy in Honduras, and an NSA piece reporting on a conversation between the President of Honduras and the President of Costa Rica. As I wrote that article I needed to refer specifically to the sources I was drawing on. Once my draft was complete I then submitted it to my Branch Chief who, like a dog marking territory, would piss on my prose and edit it with untrammeled glee.
While that was going on I had to send my draft to my counterparts in the Directorate of Operations at CIA, the Central American analyst at DIA, the Central American analyst at State INR and the NSA division that produced the report on the intercepted conversation. Everyone of those analysts had the opportunity to concur with what I wrote or offer their changes. Getting their approval is known as the “clearance process.”
Most of the time there was little disagreement and I secured their approval quickly. On occasion there would be a difference of opinion and a negotiation would ensue on finding mutually acceptable language. Once in a while the disagreement would be profound with no chance of compromise. In those rare cases, the dissenting analyst from one of the other agencies could write a dissent. This always was discouraged but not prevented.
After I made the changes requested by my Branch Chief and the other coordinating agencies, the piece went to the Chief or Deputy of the Middle America Caribbean Division (MACD) for another round of editing. I would make those changes and then it would go to the front office of ALA. Rinse and repeat. Once I had the blessing of ALA I could submit the proposed draft to the editing staffs of the National Intelligence Daily and the Presidential Daily Brief.
That was 38 years ago. Today there is no paper shuffling back and forth. Everything is done on line with computers. But that has not made the process more efficient. It has created more opportunity for a variety of people to weigh in and tweak the piece.
There also is something that did not exist when I was there — a Top Secret version of Twitter where analysts throughout the IC can congregate and engage in the same nonsense that occurs on unclassified Twitter (e.g., you may get mocked with snarky comments). Unlike regular Twitter, where you can mask your identity and hide behind a key board, the IC classified version of Twitter requires you to use your real name. And guess what? That classified channel of Twitter is regulated by senior managers who are quick, so I am told, to cancel anyone who dares offer an analytical perspective that departs from the “community standard.”
For example, imagine you are an analyst who tries to argue that the actions by the U.S. and NATO created a motive for Vladimir Putin to launch the Special Military Operation. Odds are you will be ridiculed or even cancelled. When analysts are being punished for stepping outside the IC “consensus” you have what I describe as Group Think on Steroids. There is enormous pressure to conform and no incentive to swim against the ideological current.
If you want to know why the United States has intelligence failures (e.g., Saddam is hiding weapons of Mass Destruction) this is why. No bureaucratic entity in the world, regardless of whether it is a government enterprise or a publicly traded company, likes or encourages “boat rockers.” People who rock the boat (don’t tip the boat over now) or color outside the lines have a short life in any bureaucracy. That person is fired or put into a dead end job or subjected to so much pressure and abuse that he or she decides to quit. This ain’t the world of Jack Ryan sitting around a table with a bunch of colleagues amicably working together to figure out what those dastardly Irish terrorists will do next. Pure Hollywood bullshit.
The ability of any analyst to do good, solid, objective work is totally a function of leadership at the top of the organization. If the Director of the CIA is going to shade the truth, that message is communicated down the food chain and anyone in that chain who desires to get a promotion will happily go along with shading the truth as well. There is no law or procedure that you can create to fix this. It is truly a matter of having people in management positions blessed with courage, integrity and a commitment to telling the truth no matter what the price. I have a news flash — the current leadership in the IC is lacking on all counts.
Let’s go back to the period Feb-March last year. We all rightly mock the idiotic prognostications that Russia would run out of ammunition in ten days and collapse. But Russia too seems to have had no contingency plans for what to do if the Ukranazi coup regime didn’t negotiate a logical settlement or (as it happened) was stopped by its Western owners from doing so. It is in fact obvious to any logical thinker that Russia never expected the conflict to go on past 6 months, which is why the nazi Kharkov offensive of September was possible at all; the entire region was held by circa 2000 military police and home guards, the kontraktniks having quit in disgust after their 6 months at the front. This is why troops had to be rushed from Moscow in the middle of the night in a frantic effort to hold the line and dig in at Kremennaya (your friend the know-all and self proclaimed ultimate authority Martyanov blocked me from his site for saying right then that there would be no “pincer counterattack” on the nazis as he was so grandiosely predicting; it’s 6 months now and there is still no such counterattack). It seems to me that wishful thinking isn’t limited to the CIA.
Why do you necessarily assume that?
Plan A: A quick resolution through a negotiated settlement.
Plan B: A long, drawn out campaign to destroy the banderite fascist threat to Ukraine’s Russian minority and to Russia itself.
Do you think there was no one in Russia to consider that Plan B would never be a walk in the park? Do you think the Russians have any illusions about the nature of their neighbors to the south, after a millennium of shared experience and interbreeding?
It’s a fair point.
Militaries plan for all sorts of contingencies and “what ifs”.
It comes down to a question of assigning probabilities to different scenarios and allocating finite resources based on those calculations.
You can have an inifinite number of Plans (A, B, C,…), but resources are finite.
As the ground realities change, yes, you can “open the envelope” for Plan X, Y, or Z – whichever most closely fits the actual situation. However, if you had ascribed a low probability to the scenario on which that Plan was based, your resources (available/on hand) might not be what you want them to be.
Then you have to adjust.
Which is what Russia is doing.
Mobilization of forces, production, etc.
Then it is a game of logistics and stamina:
1) How soon can you get men and materiel to where you need them to be?
2) How long can you do it for?
My view on (2) is that Russia can do it for very long, and should be prepared to do it for the next 80+ years. IMO they will, because this is existential for them.
This because the neocons and their disciples/allies are very wealthy and very powerful, and will never stop. They. Will. Never. Stop.
So you have to demonstrate that you can keep going. Forever.
There is a lot more death and destruction to come. A lot more.
At some point, the conflict might dial down to a Kashmir LIC (Low Intensity Conflict) kind of thing – 40-50 years of constant LIC across a disputed border.
No one in Russia seriously considered plan B because plan B should have included NATO entering the war in a gradual but very real escalation slope that would lead to NATO victory or nuclear war. In which case Russia should have declined plan B and gone for plan A done right (shock, awe, Ukraine prostrate and incapable of anything but begging for peace)
@Eric Newhill
“Shock and awe” is pointless against a NATO-supported Ukraine anyway. NATO would still force Ukraine to fight on even if Russia took all down Ukraine decision centers and other such locations anyway…
There will be no Plan B that would see NATO intervene directly. They can’t and that’s very simple. They’re having huge problems resupplying ammunition because they’ve all been used up because they sent to Ukraine.
As I somehow read, it takes 15 years to replenish the ammo storage.
So how can NATO get involved when they have a blatant lack of ammunition?
NATO should think very carefully about nuclear weapons, because Russia makes no distinction between tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, the same applies to the Russians.
If I heard/read correctly, Russia has warned the West to ship depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine because that is a red line.
Looks like nato will be out there.
Oh yeah, there’s a paper from Rand that the US should get out of Ukraine as soon as possible because it’s completely backfired.
NATO will never enter Ukraine in a meaningful way because even though the Ukrainian die-hards are suicidal, NATO is not.
We in the general public may have forgotten the consequences of an all out thermonuclear war but our militaries have not.
It’s now a pure game of chicken and I know who’s going to do the chickening out. May be sooner, may be later – but make no mistake about it.
Show us on the doll where Martyanov touched you.
You are a one member band, and you only know one song, which you play over and over and over and over…….
I’d certainly block you from my Blog, if I had one, on general anti-trolling principle.
And Martyanov has stated several times that there are decision trees with varying outcomes, as part of standard General Staff planning – I am sure the Russians had entertained the idea that the war might last a long time if no quick end was achieved by negotiation (which they came very close to last April, until NATO vetoed it).
Putin did not want to mobilize unless he had to, and eventually did so, when it became clear there was no early end to the war – that was a political decision, made before the war, when Russian public support may not have supported mobilization. The Russian public was not fully behind all-out war at that time, but they are now, most Russians think Putin is moving too slowly, they want more decisive action (Eric would be supportive), which is a reversal from the early days last Feb/March.
Putin had to (successfully) walk a fine line, so as to not get too far out ahead of his public’s opinion, and thus lose their support. Decisions like these are not part of military strategy, but must be part of the successful management of the war effort.
It would seem you are proving Larry’s point.
Thank You
It has infested many sites
You are right about Putin being wishfull. He wished that his SMO would convince the Elinsky gov. to accept neutrality and to insure human rights for the Russians in Donbas. He was right and an agreement was outlined for a signature in Tutkiei. His only miscalculation was not taking into account that the cokehead Elinsky would fight to the last Ukrainian to please his Western masters.
To criticize outcomes based on your total ignorance of the conditions leading to the decision and apparent outcome is an indication of a deficit in your analytical thinking skills. Haven’t you heard of the expression “never second guess those on the ground.”
As for your disrespect of Mr. Martyanov, I listen to him daily and he is an expert on warfare and especially submarine warfare and I am greatful he shared his knowledge with me.
I’m intelligent enough to realise and understand that I don’t know what anyone else is thinking or planning. I do believe however that Russia and especially Putin had and have all eventualities covered. As an exceptionally astute man, he’s not only got Ukraine covered, but is acutely aware of all the planned shenanigans of NATO, the US and it’s little English poodle. This will not end well for all of the “Collective West”.
Well said.
While I agree with you on what you are saying, just remember even Putin has made mistakes. No one is infallible. This is not to put anyone down, but to keep us from putting someone on a pedestal and to never forget we are all human, as is Putin.
As I see it, Putin is fighting an oppressor. This is on the side of Reason.
How many submarines are on the front lines in Ukraine?
Hmm… I can see that you’ve not read / listened (heard anyway) Andrei Martyanov. I’m predicting you are from the USA with your odd / old views of what, these days, makes a ‘front line’… Zircon / Kalibr equipped submarines make great mobile ‘artillery’ which can even reach the blessed, exceptional swamp itself…
QK
Your issue is you think all other nations military and political leadership think exactly like the US military and political leadership. This is one of the main problems of the American people.
The whole idea of submarines is that no one publicly knows where they are so your question is moot, if not foolish.
Hello,
My advice is to go back and reread Russian President Putin´s original SMO speech when the operation was launched. Plans A and all back up plans from B through Z and beyond were included and alluded to. It is very common among for even the best analysts, bloggers, ect. that are out there to opine that the Russians were single minded and caught off guard. The door was always left wide open to react to any directional move the Occidentals wished to pursue. Russia was merely hoping the West would cooperate. The only ones fooled, are they guyz that Larry is talking about in this article.
Have a great day.
It’s pretty clear to me that Russia had previously gamed the SMO out strategically to cover the contingency of a prolonged war. Their readiness to indefinitely withstand sanctions testifies to that.
I think they got the timing off – simply they were not fully ready because it began ahead of projections – which is why they went in light.
The example you hold up of a tactical reverse in Kharkov as proof of an absence of strategy is a non sequitur. Such reverses are part and parcel of every war.
What I think happened is that the Russians began with a war of movement using an economy of force, which was very effective. But as soon as they gained territory which they needed to keep (Zaparozhie and Kherson, not Kharkov) they lost the ability to wage a war of manoeuvre as UAF could fix their forces simply by threatening those territories. Much as Lee’s ability to wage a mobile war was neutralized by Grant’s advance on Richmond.
Russia’s mistake was to be slow in switching gears from a mobile to an attritional mode. Maybe because they underestimated the calibre of the forces Ukraine had built up in reserve.
Yes. No argument.
And the Russia fanbois continue to verbally denigrate Ukrainian forces and NATO support/NATO itself, as if all opposition to Russia is a harmless joke. I am pretty sure the Russians themselves do not see the humor and do take both NATO and Ukraine seriously. Hence no big arrow offense and lots of troops in reserve instead.
I believe that I have the right to claim the best knowledge of Putin’s character and demeanor.
Not once in his entire career has he shown anything resembling desperation or a desperate attempt.
Everything that happens in Ukraine was planned and foreseen in advance, including the proposal for a peace agreement, the failure of which was obvious to everyone in advance. If you don’t understand what specific goal Putin is pursuing with one or another of his decisions and actions at this stage, wait a year or two. It takes someone 10 years to stop being surprised.
Anatoly Wasserman:
“Vladimir Vladimirovich, among other things, is known for the fact that no one has yet been able to predict his actions,” recalled Anatoly Aleksandrovich. “Although many try. But the problem is that most of the predictors measure themselves. flows of information that comes to the President, especially since some of them are classified.For example, I have not tried to predict the actions of Vladimir Putin for a long time, I only note in controversial circumstances that every time it seemed to me that Putin was wrong, further The course of events showed that I was mistaken.
I am not aware of Russia declaring any timeframe for the SMO. However, while I do not share your opinion of Martyanov, it is also my impression that Russia was surprised by the rabid, full-spectrum Russophobia which was unveiled on all fronts.
Frankly, I think many of us were surprised and disgusted by the collective West’s irrational and self-destructive hate agonist Russia and all things Russian, which in retrospect certainly did not start on Feb 24 2022, nor in 2014 with Maidan.
Agreed. Here in the UK you can occasionally encounter folk who have issues with various minorities, but I have never heard anyone expressing Russophobia.
Having said that, my Russian neighbour has experienced it, and she’s better placed than me to comment.
There has been official top down Russophobia imposed since Feb 24 2022, and prior to that via the shady “Poisonings”, which no MSM journalists ever question.
“Where are the Skripals?”
What is particularly disturbing about this wave of state sponsored hate, is that it extends to the Russian people generally, which is disturbing.
They always make the distinction between the Iranian people, and the government, or Muslims and Islamists. But in Russia’s case they have gone way beyond anything we have seen before. Fortunately, I don’t think most of the public are onboard.
“They always make the distinction between the Iranian people, and the government, or Muslims and Islamists.”
Yeah, but the West saying that is just words. They don’t actually mean it as they do not care for any of those people’s lives you mentioned. All one has to do is look at the number of people the US has killed in the past 22 years. The West has just decided to do away with all the false niceties they usually do because they have gotten more arrogant, narcissistic. and megalomaniacal.
@Elial
They were not surprised by Russophobia as such, with few exceptions, who suddenly felt ashamed of being Russians (although they had never been Russians, only according to their passports). They are used to not paying attention anymore – the Russians have been told from all irons for decades that the whole world hates and despises Russians.
But the scale of the unfolding campaign to abolish everything Russian, perhaps, was surprised, as a manifestation of the moral weakness and incompetence of the West. The stated goals – regime change, the murder of the economy, the dismemberment of Russia – testified that the West knows Russia very poorly and does not understand the psychology of the people at all.
By the way, this is what happened to Russian-speaking Ukrainians, the essence of the tragedy. They were broken when they decided to abandon the Russianness in themselves. Or vice versa, they abandoned their Russianness, because they were broken, bribed, seduced by promises. Ukrainians have yet to realize that no one in the world needs them, that no one admires their intellect, culture, their songs, dances, Turkish pants, wreaths on their heads and yellow-blue cloaks.
What were the Europeans and Americans so afraid of with the start of the special operation that they raised a screech to the whole universe?
Perhaps this happened because the elites of the United States and Western countries believed that in order to achieve global domination, they would once and for all shape reality as they saw fit. And such an end justifies any means.
But Russia has shown that from now on it will shape reality.
Gera said: “Ukrainians have yet to realize that no one in the world needs them, that no one admires their intellect, culture, their songs, dances, Turkish pants, wreaths on their heads and yellow-blue cloaks.”
I went to bed very late last night since I couldn’t stop reading this piece about how to denazify Ukraine:
https/gawrusha.livejournal.com/54437.html
(In Russian, use your favorite translator program)
I do not agree with all his proposed methods but his summary of Galician/”Ukrainian” history is an amazing read. In brief, he argues that Ukraine’s only history is Russia-hate and Nazism. So denazification simply means de-Ukrainization.
Oh thanks for the link.
I found this article in Russian. The article is very long. But I will read. In general, I read all the links available for opening that come across on this site (some do not open).
Ouch, my link didn’t work. Here it is:
https://gawrusha.livejournal.com/54437.html
The pics are awesome/frightening too.
Ron Suskind’s reality based community discussion with Karl Rove. We create our own reality and cover our failures with massive propaganda campaigns, distractions, and crisis. Russia is hated because it has been a massive thorn in their side. The press response to the Georgia conflict, Syria, and Ukraine was all the same. They were hysterical because Russia was stopping their reality creation. They make up for it by taking it out on us though were we refuse to acknowledge the difference between men and women
A year ago I noticed possible evidence of at least rejection of things Russian on several classical music public radio stations in my area. Never heard any music from Russian composers when formerly it was abundant, and much from Ukraine composers. Now, Russian composers are getting more air time.
A sign of more sanity among classical music lovers?
PBS has turned into a hotbed of all things insane.
Banning world renowned composers, artists and athletes, isn’t that what the Bolshecvicks did? How silly! especially with the Internet and smartphones.
I’m putting together one hour ‘broadcasts’ of post-Soviet music on my substack. Have three programs up at the moment, all contemporary Russian bands, with a Tajik program presently in the works to be followed by an Uzbek program. All are welcome, no charge.
https://ebear.substack.com/
Alexis de Tocqueville, in his 1830s book “Democracy in America” predicted that the USA would have an innate hostility of Russia. He also predicted that military careerists in a democratic society like the USA would always and unavoidably try to create wars despite the population’s dislike of wars that disrupt, impede and tax their personal goals and activities.
@Biswapriya Purkayastha:
Nukes aside Russia simply doesn’t have the MIC ready to challenge US/NATO — and so it has to go about playing slowly and conservatively and, yes, looking like a complete weak stupid fool (as you’ve noticed) for now so that (1) US/NATO won’t escalate “too” much, and in the meantime for (2) to buy enough time in order for Russia to build + keep building up its MIC up to snuff.
(Not surprisingly, remember how even the “highly successful” Wagner PMC are complaining about not receiving sufficient munitions nowadays? Well, given the above, you wouldn’t want them to become “too successful” now, would you?)
So, ultimately, there’s really nothing that surprising here. A big giant powerful NATO-contending Russian MIC is not something that can created in an instant with a mere “snap” of Putin’s fingers anyway. So don’t be surprised Russia will still have to keep “playing” or “acting” the role of a weak feckless fool just to buy up whatever time it can (and for what looks like to be a potentially long time going forward as well).
James K
Some useful points, however:
Does Nato have the MIC? Not according to the likes of Brian Berletic. They have a huge amount of stuff that is not useful for this war, and a shortage of what is needed.
Meanwhile, Russia seems very well placed, and in case of an emergency, Chinese help.
@Glasshopper
China will only help Russia circumvent sanctions and that’s about it. Don’t me wrong tho — economic help is nice to have. But as it stands China is not going to provide any serious military assistance to a weak Russia that’s pinned into a little corner of Ukraine and forced to play a war of “attrition” against some low morale conscripts and draftees just taken from the streets.
Also while there’s plenty claims of NATO being “weak” or “attrited” — the facts on the ground however say the opposite. NATO has been and is still running around the world + Ukraine completely unabashed and doing as it pleases, meanwhile Russia is the one getting “pinned” a few miles from its border by low morale conscripts and being forced to fight tooth and nail for every square km. Claims that “NATO can’t continue this for much longer” — even from NATO itself — are likely just propaganda (yes even from NATO itself) designed to lull any enemies of NATO into a false sense of security and get them to underestimate whatever NATO’s real/actual capabilities are.
hahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Just wow. lol
You must be thirsty after that speech, here, have some more koolaid. I’ve added some copium to keep you comfortable while the sedatives wear off.
Then again, perhaps I misunderstood you.
While the US and the West have destroyed all their industrial production capacity, Russia has kept huge weapon factories running idle for decades. These factories were kept only to have surge capacity in case of war. So yes, Russia has “created a big giant powerful” MIC simply by running them 24/7. Three shifts a day. They produce 3+ times shell per year than NATO combined.
Concerning Western escalation, I refer to Putin: “Let them try.”
@Gog
Except the facts on the ground show that US/NATO is successfully pinning Russia into a little corner of Ukraine and forcing it to play a “war of attrition” against some low morale conscripts taken from the streets in Ukraine with a little NATO assistance here and there.
Not a good look for Russia there…
“ Russia simply doesn’t have the MIC ready to challenge US/NATO”
Kindly elaborate because NATO seems to be running desperately short of everything while Russia seems to have an abundance of weapons in its arsenal, even as Putin said, they still haven’t started anything yet.
@Elial
Just look at the facts. Russia is pinned into a corner of Ukraine forced to play a petty war of attrition against low morale conscripts. NATO gets to run unabashed around the whole world + Ukraine and do as it pleases.
It’s not NATO, but Russia who is being “pinned against the wall” here.
It’s the other way around James. Nato doesn’t have the means to take on Russia:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=XCDiw6eg04E
@Razor
But NATO has the means to “attrite” Russia. Which it is so far doing rather successfully by pinning Russia into a little corner of Ukraine over some low morale conscripts taken from the streets with a little bit of NATO assistance here and there.
And Ukraine still has tons and tons more conscripts to go…
Complete bullshit from this moron.
@Seleukas
Too bad the facts say otherwise…
Does collapse of multiple banks count as a fact?
You actually think that NATO is prepared for a war with Russia? Just because NATO talks in such an arrogant tone does not mean they are ready for a war with Russia. Great Britain whole army will fit in Wembley Stadium and it’s Navy is practically non-existent. Germany admits if it would have to go to war it would run out of all types of ammunition in 3 days. France’s military is in no better condition than Germany and GB. The US military is suffering from shortage of men, the damage from 22 years of constant war, and the inability to manufacture anything in great numbers which it would need in a war with Russia. Not only that the US has only won 1 war since WW2 and lost all its wars in the first quarter of the 21st century. It’s military industry does not make weapons that work because they care more about profits and stock price than US national security. The US MIC reminds me of the McDonald’s ice cream machine scheme.
You are in for a rude-awakening of you think the NATO is ready for a war with Russia or China. How the hell is the Western Europe going to conduct a war without sufficient energy resources?
@Joe — you’re missing the part about the latest generation of warfare.
Drones/artillery/anti-air defense/etc and ISR seem to be major contributors here nowadays, not raw manpower — but, if you like to look at manpower, well, Ukraine still has lots more conscripts and cannon fodder ready to throw at the Russians as well.
Clearly, the facts on the ground point to Russia being pinned into a little corner of Ukraine forced to play a war of “attrition” still unable to liberate the territories it gained via the referendums nor protect even the Donbass from constant shelling by the UAF still post-2014+. So, it seems NATO is actually quite succeeding in repelling the Russian forces (again, there are still lots more Ukrainian conscripts and cannon fodder available to throw at this as well).
Clearly, facts on the ground point to you needing more “talking points”, and better quality ones. You have pinned yourself into a little corner by copy-pasting that Ukraine still has lots more conscripts twice in the same post, in spite of everyone here being aware that they are in the Volkssturm phase (except yourself). Chatbots are major contributors here nowadays, and you are inferior to one.
The fly in your ointment is ammunition, specifically artillery shells. It’s obvious that the Russians have stores of them beyond anything NATO ever even dreamed of accumulating. Why did Moscow load up its warehouses if it never anticipated the possibility of a prolonged conflict?
@ Biswapriya Purkayastha,
SMO (or UKR war) is just one piece of fight between RU and West.
The main point of this conflict is de-dollarization of world and destruction of West’s financial monopoly and domination, because as long as they own international money, they could always pay for armament, soldiers, food, energy etc with toilet paper money, so until you destroy the power of their toilet paper money, their resources are practically limitless, and here are some examples:
– You need more men?
Offer 2k dollar per day, and every soldier of fortune will come your way
– You need more fuel?
Go to black market and buy it in 2x price
– You need generals that are willing to sacrifice their men to the last?
No problem, find more evil ones (mercenary and domestic) and give them more money. Also, pay off those on lower levels as well so that they can enforce those suicidal policies
– You have logistical problems?
Offer big money to private drivers to drive pickups with ammo/food/supplies, buy pickups for them, provide them with expensive fuel, and instead of driving one military truck to take 1000 shells to the front (which is easy target for RU), you drive 40 pickups with 25 shells each, so shells arrive where they need to, and RU cannot even intercept them since its just expensive and not really easy to destroy pickup trucks that are driving quickly, and are quick and easy to load in/out.
These are just few of examples of what you can easily achieve with money printing when your currency is the world currency.
For this main point (de-dollarization) to be achieved, RU needs to be ready for a long-term conflict, and that is exactly what they are doing.
Would they win quickly if they mobilized 2 mil people and overwhelmed UKR on all fronts and choke them?
Yes, they would, casualties would probably be in line of 200k dead and many times that maimed, or similar but it could be done and could be done quickly.
What next?
1 / Well, RU would now have 2 mil traumatized people that were taken away from their regular lives and they would now have to get integrated back, but can a person who saw 10 of his friends and dozens of enemies die get back to normal? Some could, majority not really.
2 / RU would also have a devastated economy, because those 2 mil people would not be working but instead fighting. (and these are fighting age men, arguably, the backbone of every economy)
3 / Quick victory (at the start of the SMO) would likely keep dollar as the world currency as changing/replacing it is a big stress to world economy, so by going quick they could potentially achieve their fighting goals, but at a cost of the main goal (de-dollarization) and thus it would all be mostly in vain.
All in all, they need this conflict to last, so that they could force de-dollarization after which implosion of the West would be unavoidable.
Would they win quickly if they could do it cheaply?
1 / Yes of course, and that is what they tried to do at the start of the SMO by forcing negotiations (but it failed because of foreign pressures on UKR side)
2 / Once they realized that it cannot be done quickly and cheaply, their next attempt was to do it cheaply by attrition on the long run (that also failed, because amount of resources poured into UKR was unheard of, and UKR itself was willing to sacrifice unheard amounts of men)
3 / Once they realized that it cannot be done really cheap, in order to avoid bloody stalemate which would be unpopular at home and could cause a loss on the very long term, RU side staged Kharkov retreat in order to mobilize their own society and prepare it for partial mobilization of military and economy. Key word here is partial, because they are still trying to achieve their goals as cheep as they can regarding their military, population and economy.
So all in all, RU were not surprised, and only an idiot would think that Putin really believed West would agree to Minsk agreements and that he did not notice UKR military preparations that made them from ragtag group into one of the strongest and best entrenched military powers in the world.
What RU attempted to do is to achieve all goals as cheap as possible and I still think that in that calculation they are doing quite quite well overall.
Yes. Exactly. Russia gambled on a quick Ukrainian capitulation and gambled wrong; with no contingency plan. The haters of the west cannot deal with the simple fact that Russia screwed up. So they attempt to silence those who see the obvious. One method of achieving that is to accuse of trolling and covertly being in league with the opposite set of delusional propagandists, like the ISW and their western media mouthpieces.
The war is now a slow slug-fest. Russia has the upper hand at the moment, but barely, and NATO prepares for a counter offensive toward Crimea. Body counts/kill ratios are now the metric of Russian success, as flaunted by the west haters here and at similar sites; much like US generals in Vietnam did to ensure the populace that that war was going well for the US.
It is an article of faith that Russia can continue to absorb casualties and produce ordnance in large volumes and that Ukraine/US can do neither. Also an article of faith that Russia is smarter and generally more capable (when clearly they made a huge error in jumping off the SMO as they did – they admit that themselves) and that NATO – the US, really, is nothing but bumbling incompetents with inferior weapons systems to boot (as Martyanov rambles on about incessantly).
Anyhow, getting back on topic, clearly, the Russians have huge intelligence failures of their own (like totally missing what the west’s reaction would be to the invasion).
I am not so sure US intelligence got it wrong. Russia is bogged down in a war that they cannot “win” beyond achieving, at best, a “Korea solution”. NATO can fight a proxy war for at least a couple more years and an insurgency after that – which will bleed and drain Russia. The US blew up Nordstream and got away with it, separating Germany and Russia and making Germany dependent on the US. While sanctions have not hurt Russia, as allegedly intended, they have, predictably, hurt the EU, but not the US. The US remains the EU’s daddy. There’s more, but you get the point. The US seems to be the one playing 5D chess and winning. They play dirty, sure, but they play. Russia? Not so much. They are stuck in reaction mode.
@ Eric Newhill,
Hah, you again 😀
“(when clearly they made a huge error in jumping off the SMO as they did – they admit that themselves)”
They admit it because they are not stupid enough to say to whole world (like West did with Merkel, Holande, etc) that they knew that West is lying, therefore admit that they lied as well. In the mean time, they were buying time and preparing for the inevitable as well.
“(like totally missing what the west’s reaction would be to the invasion). ”
There was no confusion, you could easily see that before 2014, RU was importer of food, and now is one of the biggest exporters in the world, so no, they did not miss reaction at all, they prepared for it for 8 full years and appear to have done it properly.
“NATO can fight a proxy war for at least a couple more years and an insurgency after that”
Not really, if USD as world currency dies (and is slowly dying out), they won’t be able to afford anything, and let alone very expensive proxy war that is on books over 120 billion, and in reality probably 3 or 4 times more then that.
“The US seems to be the one playing 5D chess and winning. They play dirty, sure, but they play. Russia? Not so much. They are stuck in reaction mode.”
Not really either – the problem with that approach is that neither US nor Europe produce anything of real worth any more – financial transactions, tourism, healthcare, “education”, blah blah, but real industries and production in total are peanuts comparing to RU, CHN, IND, etc.
With that being said, US would own Europe that has nothing of worth to give back to it, which basically means only hungry mouths to feed.
Anyway, the whole point is if RU and CHN manage to break USD as global currency, complete West is done for because printing press will not be working anymore.
If they don’t manage to break USD as global currency, then they will inevitably loose on the long run as they themselves will be working for the enemy by producing stuff for their toilet paper money and West would effectively have unlimited resources, and that is what whole this war is all about.
The America haters’ fantasy about the USD losing status in the next few years is ridiculous. Some day? Yes, perhaps so, but not in time to be of help to Russia. If Russia is counting on that, then their intelligence is worse that I thought.
I predict that the US will begin manufacturing again. In fact, I see signs and hear talk that it’s coming.
Perhaps the Russians did indeed begin preparing after the events of 2014. I’ve been following Russian leaderships’ speeches since then and, yes, I think there is ample evidence that they realized the urgency of becoming prepared for a big fight. I think they acted on that. I also think that the US saw what was happening and decided to force the issue before Russia was totally ready. Point being, dismissing US intelligence as completely FUBAR is not a healthy approach. I do not agree with what the US seeks to do, but I give the devil his due, which is something more people around here should consider as well.
But you’re right about the consequences to Russia if the USD doesn’t fall.
@ Eric Newhill,
“But you’re right about the consequences to Russia if the USD doesn’t fall.”
Not only RU, but also CHN and rest of the world, if USD dominance stays it will end with one world order for sure, and that is the reason why I think that CHN, IND and others will also give their best for USD to break as soon as possible.
Saudis will soon (if not already) start accepting Yuan for oil, which means that USD will almost instantly lose prominence, as no independent country will want to keep money in USD and risk getting it taken if they don’t listen.
“I predict that the US will begin manufacturing again. In fact, I see signs and hear talk that it’s coming.”
That is nice prediction, but its very unlikely simply because you cannot easily train desk jokeys to work in factories (not to talk about woke and similar), and there is also issue of many natural resources that West simply lacks.
Anyway, there are many many reasons why its very unlikely that USA will ever (or at least not soon) be industrial power again, but lets just say that just the fact that RU is leading in space and military technology tells a great story of non competitiveness of the West’s science and technology.
“Perhaps the Russians did indeed begin preparing after the events of 2014”
Ofcourse they did, they created their own credit card, their own swift, their own internet (if internet turns RU off, they can with a flip of a switch have their own internet), all of their military equipment is almost fully or maybe even fully independent from the foreign suppliers, they were buying a lot of gold, they handled food deficiencies, they created pipelines towards CHN, etc, etc, etc..
This one is from your previous post:
“Russia is bogged down in a war that they cannot “win” beyond achieving, at best, a “Korea solution””
Well, chances for RU to lose militarily in UKR are really close to null.
I wanted to write whole slew of objective (undeniable) facts here but realized that you would most likely just TLDR it, so I’ll just quickly name some of them:
1 / RU is not running out of food, fuel, ammunition, manpower or equipment for sure
2 / Even by West’s casualty counts that favor UKR, RU is obviously winning since they have far bigger population
3 / It is obvious that at this point RU is making advancements on entire front line.
4 / RU no longer fights with numerical disadvantage which was obviously the case before partial mobilization at point where UKR claimed its greatest victories
5 / Its obvious that RU has way more equipment and ammunition of every kind – even West sources admit that artillery difference is at least 5:1 and sometimes even 10:1, and also for any other equipment and ammunition type.
6 / Its also very clear that RU so far have never lost a major battle. When it appeared that they are going to be overwhelmed they retreated and saved vast majority of men and equipment
7 / RU is regularly pounding whole of UKR with missiles and drones, and they are going to make a lot of cumulative damage over time, and that cannot be denied.
All in all, miltarily RU is extremely unlikely to lose, especially since UKR is not retreating to their strongholds in the west where they would have stronger population support, shorter logistical lines and greater chance of West’s direct involvement, but are in fact fighting attritional war (no-one denies that it is war of attrition) near RU border where all of those advantages are simply not present.
However, even with total RU military victory, if USD stays global currency victory will be of very limited scope, because both RU and CHN would be indirectly working for the West, as their resources could still be indirectly exploited by the West – for example, buying RU energy, even at higher price through intermediaries, doesn’t really mean anything since they could always print more money.
Likening war to chess is silly. Chess is deterministic and a computer will beat any human pretty much every time. On the other hand a computer would be a terrible general.
In war there are huge uncertainties. As good old Clausewitz’ said: “There is no human affair which stands so constantly and so generally in close connection with chance as war.” So you MUST gamble. The correct thing IS to gamble. And sometimes you will lose your bet.
Russia lost its bet on a quick diplomatic solution. On the other hand they won big on separating themselves from the degenerate West with its doomed economy. As Peskov said today Russia is almost completely untouched by the West’s banking crisis. Russia also posted all time high exports for 2022 today. In addition they have more support outside the West than ever.
Of course there are things Russia could have done better (faster mobilization comes to mind). And there will also be more blunders. But all in all their contingency plans work way better than anyone could have imagined. Europe is down the crapper and since the US doesn’t care about having friends, just vassals, they will eventually follow Europe.
YES it is the inimitably deranged madness of Newdill once again.
With the genius analysis you provide you might even get spotted by the American IC head-hunters and you could yet end up writing reports for President Blithering Biden with whom you clearly have so much in common, like “DUH Where am I? What’s happening now? That’s right we are the great USA winning another great war, bringing freedom and democracy to an ungrateful scoffing world which hates our freedom. We are the great shining light on the hill”.
You must be channelling the equally great President Ronald Raygun who in his 1989 farewell address was channelling John Winthrop when Raygun stated (drum roll – this is genius comparable only to the genius of your own unique Newdill pronouncements)
Raygun channelling Winthrop dribbled thus
“In my mind it was a tall, proud city built on rocks stronger than oceans, windswept, God-blessed, and teeming with people of all kinds living in harmony and peace; a city with free ports that hummed with commerce and creativity. And if there had to be city walls, the walls had doors and the doors were open to anyone with the will and the heart to get here.”
BUT WAIT THERE’S MORE
I hope you are now standing at attention, saluting, with star bangled flag hoisted high in your front yard and with a dinner table full set and overflowing with sentiment of the delusional grandeur that gushes from your inspirational mind
Raygun dribbled on thus:
“lesson number one about America: All great change in America begins at the dinner table. So, tomorrow night in the kitchen I hope the talking begins. And children, if your parents haven’t been teaching you what it means to be an American, let ’em know and nail ’em on it. That would be a very American thing to do.”
‘Laugh a line Newdill’, the great shining all-knowing personage standing strong – an invincible beacon of truth and unshakeable faith in the exceptional people from the indispensable nation from the great shining city on the hill.
You say “your friend the know-all and self proclaimed ultimate authority Martyanov”
Given your emphatic sweeping statements on the thought processes of the Russians, as if youhave insights the rest of us lack, has it occurred to you that you could be describing yourself.
I would say no, because he doesn’t have any friends. 🙂
I think the Intel agencies are so desperate they are trying to get Intel from places like 4 chan. many such threads of topics with requests for photos or try to debate equipment quality in an attempt to get information.
And when you promote or parachute in the biggest toadies, overseeing the internal control mechanism, anti-reality is guaranteed and there is no correction mechanism before total failure.
Well then, we’re all screwed aren’t we.
“If you want to know why the United States has intelligence failures (e.g., Saddam is hiding weapons of Mass Destruction) this is why.”
My understanding is that Dick Cheney & Co. (“The Neocons”) were bypassing the whole analysis chain and drawing their own conclusions from raw intelligence, thus setting up the “WMDs” malarkey so as to have an excuse (in addition to tying Saddam to 9/11) for invading Iraq, which they had in fact been planning since taking office. They were further feeding crap about Saddam’s (nonexistent) bioweapons to Judith Miller of the New York Times, and when her stories were printed Cheney & Co. would then cite them as “evidence” of such weapons.
SEE:
‘The Stovepipe’ by Seymour M. Hersh
In interviews with present and former intelligence officials, I was told that some senior Administration people, soon after coming to power, had bypassed the government’s customary procedures for vetting intelligence.
A retired C.I.A. officer described for me some of the questions that would normally arise in vetting: “Does dramatic information turned up by an overseas spy square with his access, or does it exceed his plausible reach? How does the agent behave? Is he on time for meetings?” The vetting process is especially important when one is dealing with foreign-agent reports—sensitive intelligence that can trigger profound policy decisions. In theory, no request for action should be taken directly to higher authorities—a process known as “stovepiping”—without the information on which it is based having been subjected to rigorous scrutiny.
The point is not that the President and his senior aides were consciously lying. What was taking place was much more systematic—and potentially just as troublesome. Kenneth Pollack, a former National Security Council expert on Iraq, whose book “The Threatening Storm” generally supported the use of force to remove Saddam Hussein, told me that what the Bush people did was “dismantle the existing filtering process that for fifty years had been preventing the policymakers from getting bad information. They created stovepipes to get the information they wanted directly to the top leadership. Their position is that the professional bureaucracy is deliberately and maliciously keeping information from them.
“They always had information to back up their public claims, but it was often very bad information,” Pollack continued. “They were forcing the intelligence community to defend its good information and good analysis so aggressively that the intelligence analysts didn’t have the time or the energy to go after the bad information.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2003/10/27/the-stovepipe
Not that I have any expertise, but this same “stovepiping” could be going on now with Ukraine. We certainly know that the same cast of neocon characters are in positions of power and that they’ve wanted war with Russia via Ukraine for years.
IMHO, if Hillary had been coronated President back in 2016 all of this would’ve happened then. But God works in mysterious ways and Trump – who Hillary and Co. thought would be their ticket to easy victory – wound up winning the electoral vote. What followed with “Russiagate” and attempts at impeachment were desperation moves to correct this “wrong” and get rid of Trump in order to put the plan back on track with a more compliant Pence (who is gung-ho for the Ukraine war).
The problem for the neocons is that during the four years Trump stood in their way Russia’s economic and military strength greatly improved. They might very well have succeeded in their plan to crush Putin and carve up Russia in 2016, but by 2021 it was too late. Russia was too strong. They are only finding out now how strong it really is.
All you had to know from those times is that if the ‘intelligence community’ was either 1) not able to understand that Chalubi was feeding them horseshit and why or 2) that they knew he was feeding them horseshit and for their benefit just added perfume to it for human consumption but didn’t know that he was actually working for Shi’ite interests (aka Iran), then that ‘intelligence community’ is the proven oxymoron of all oxymorons.
I still think it’s fair to say that Cheney was a clever liar, Little Bush was (and is) a stupid liar, and that all neocons lie both to themselves and to others. On the basis of evidence, if they’re not all liars then the only explanation for their behavior is that they are more credulous than kindergartners.
‘Group Think’ and self-censorship have reached pandemic levels in western government and media.
Behold the latest in Katchanovski’s long-fought struggle to bring the details of the Maidan massacre into not even the mainstream light but into academic journals with rigorous positive peer reviews of his work. What exactly is the root cause of this nightmare of our own creation? I’d really like to know. What I do emphatically know is…..it will not end well.
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/03/12/academic-journal-maidan-massacre/
“When analysts are being punished for stepping outside the IC “consensus” you have what I describe as Group Think on Steroids. There is enormous pressure to conform”.
I guess we have all experienced this destructive corporate MO described by Larry.
It is actually Fascism at work.
It is a question of personal character how people react when faced with this MO.
Those who are lazy, less competent and wants the money, they comply.
Those who have competence and self-respect, they leave.
The consequence is that the company is slowly being drained of competent staff.
This has fatal consequences for Private enterprises.
However it can go on indefinitely in public organizations, as politicians will keep paying their salary with the Taxpayers money; no matter how poorly the organization performs.
No one will take action, because it means firing of the incompetent and corrupt.
When National intelligence agencies become infected with this Fascist Corporate MO, it becomes a threat to National security, and the only way to save the Nation is to shut down the entire organization.
Very interesting! Thank you for constant efforts to upgrade knowledge/awareness for all your followers. Ignorance is a disease and knowledge is a path to freedom and personal development. Best wishes!
It’s all hubris now. They do not feel any need for the “truth” but rather to produce vehicles that support the “ends” they are after. They all know what these “ends” are so it only remains to massage the message to support these “ends.”
I believe it’s even worse than groupthink. It’s a religious pursuit of an agenda. These people are ideologues whose only goal is the hegemonic objective. Groupthink has potential to be fixed, this mess requires eradication as in a good house cleaning, better yet, clear out the house and demolish it.
Long March fellow travelers actually love Russia.
External enemies prepared for THE FINAL WAR while Heather has two mommies got the pronouns and hair down.
I quote Suskind some words explaining a damning lot of the present day USA :
»The aide said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. “That’s not the way the world really works anymore,” he continued. “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality — judiciously, as you will – we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors… and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”»
Group Think is a sub specie of this and it works from MSM to Antifas, to the Biden Admin, Wall Street, Academia, DEI, ESG, WEF. The entire thing is “We’re an empire now, and when the act, we create our own reality.” The person who said the words above perfectly understood how the USA work from top to bottom. You add today the “intelligence” community to the herd.
Pardon me for saying so, but your comment reveals your own ignorance. I refuse to condemn anyone simply because of religion, race, or birth tribe.
It is the odious politics of identity, judging a man by the colour of his skin instead of by the content of his character, to paraphrase MLK.
Agreed, however judging people by their character runs a serious risk of bringing entire systems of governance to a crashing end.
Thank you, Elial.
Ellial… you are correct about judging an individual and generalizations… however, you can judge the leadership of a country and/or an ideology by it’s track record and stated goals. Look at what Zionism as an ideology has done around the world. If you can’t see it, then read the history.
If you and Mary wish to learn the history of Zionism for yourselves, then here is the best source I have found:
The Controversy of Zion by Douglas Reed. It is available as a free pdf on the Net. I will guarantee, once you start reading, you will not put it down.
The book shows how Zionism and all its iterations throughout history has always sacrificed Jews along with others for its communistic ideology. Zionism has never allowed the Jew to leave the Getho, that in itself should be a revelation.
I want to chime in with Mary and thank you as well.
you should be granted a golden passport, assuming you don`t already have 2….
Is there anything on the planet as repulsive as a rabid antisemitic numskull? As tedious?
The rabid antisemites are entryists, in the style of the Trotskyites and hard democrat progressives.
Their purpose is not to push their nominal agenda, as much as force a message board into a devil’s choice of censorship or frightening off people who may otherwise be interested. The tactic is getting a bit old, though, as by now probably a majority of the English internet has figured it out; it is used principally on dissident fora. We probably need a snappy name, an urban dictionary entry, and promote the name whenever the tactic is used.
Another touch on display here is to use as display name the names of somewhat prominent Russophile commentators that have some connection to the blog.
let me assure you, my education most likely vastly exceeds yours…and it`s my real name, not sure about the moonie-guy though…
yeah, there is. A neocon/Zionist.
And European jews are not semetic.
Another lie the majority have taken on board as gospel.
for what it`s worth, almost all the ME-countries are `semitic`…and pardon me for painting with a broader brush these days…my country is literally dying at the behest of the parasites running the US.
“It is truly a matter of having people in management positions blessed with courage, integrity and a commitment to telling the truth …”
Hi Larry,
Thanks for an insight into how the machine works.
It’s the same in any organisation, its ‘culture’ comes from the top.
I’m a fan of Nicholas Nassim Taleb – he talks about having “skin in the game.” What is the skin the IC leadership has, what consequences when they get it *so wrong* it’s not just an honest mistake? Perhaps they (and, for that matter, their political masters) might be a little more on-the-ball if they risked becoming involuntary organ donars! 🙁
Best wishes.
donors (duh)
Thanks for that excellent first-hand insider account Larry.
The origins of CIA and how CIA came to be and how post WW11 and during the years of the most confrontational period of the Cold War, CIA and American intelligence operations were run entirely by ex SS Lieutenant General Reinhard Gehlen and his large team of Nazis war criminals.
Gehlen had literally bribed intel chief Allen Dulles and Thomas McKettrick with a massive amount of stolen Nazi gold and treasures as well as a massive trove of microfilmed materials they had collected from across USSR and East European nations.
When the Russians were closing in on Berlin, Gehlen and his Nazis hid that gold along with the microfilms at several locations in the Austrian Alps for express purpose of using it to bribe / bargain / negotiate their way out of being prosecuted as war criminals – and they succeeded in that.
Gehlen actually managed to have himself and his entire Nazi spy apparatus that had been operating across Ukraine, Poland, USSR and other East European countries established as the de facto CIA operations in Europe and USSR / East Europe. It was the Gehlen organization operating under aegis of CIA which gathered and wrote all the reports that went from Gehlen to CIA and were simply transcribed, without alteration, onto CIA letterheads and presented to the US Presidents at their daily morning security briefs.
Gehlen and his Nazis had become the perfect partners for the deep cover Anglo-American Nazis operating out of Washington, London, Germany and other West European capitals.
Effectively WW11 Nazis were never defeated – they simply vanished by deceptions, murder and sleight of hand into the shadows of the Deep State governments.
Many researchers and historians have spent years researching and writing about the still mostly unknown and hidden history and they are adamant that the reason there was so much ongoing hostility between America-NATO and USSR was because Gehlen and his Nazis were contriving reports full of false and misleading information specifically designed to create growing tension and fears, with the express intention of persuading America to launch preemptive nuclear attack on Russia, who Gehlen and the Nazis hated most and saw as their biggest threat and the biggest obstacle to their ambition to set up their One World Nazi fascist regime
The people who Gehlen and his Nazi gang in the Deep State wanted to be rid of once and for all were, and still are, the Russians – it is a work still in progress.
And for at least a decade after WW11 the Ukraine Banderites were heavily funded and supported by CIA / Gehlen Nazi organization to a carry on subversive activities against USSR inside Ukraine and the USSR. That is the reason why the Nazi Banderites remained so strong to this day and why over all these years they were preparing for another final big attempt by the Nazis to annihilate Russia the bitter sworn enemies.
This is also the reason for the Korean War and the war in Vietnam. During all those Cold War years our nations were immersed by western mainstream media to unending propaganda created by Gehlen and his gang. Those old enough will remember the constant threat they called the ‘Domino Theory’ which threatened freedom and democracy around the world – they kept repeating it ad nauseam.
It was also the Nazis who helped establish the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (Hjalmar Schaacht played a big role in funding that) – which later led to all the more recent iterations of Islamist jihad terror groups.
Read the book by Peter Levenda titled ‘The Hitler Legacy: The Nazi Cult in Diaspora: How It Was Organized, How It Was Funded, and Why It Remains a Threat to Global Security in the Age of Terrorism’.
Few people today have any clue as to how the Nazis not only never went away but how they managed to quite literally insert themselves into and dominate the American and NATO intelligence agencies to this day – and still do.
It is not by accident or folly that has resulted in the seeming appalling dysfunction within the American Intelligence Community – it is has all been achieved by extreme cunning and Nazi genius backed up by murder, blackmail and assassination, especially the assassination of JFK who was threatening to eliminate the CIA / Nazis before they eliminated him.
CIA and American-NATO intelligence might seem to be being managed by incompetent career-obsessed buffoons but that is only because the real power behind the curtain that pulls all the strings has organized it all to appear that way so there could never be any opposition to the decades-old project to make the world one great Nazi regime but this time round with much greater subtle finesse and theatrics, rather than the in-your-face comic book tyrant dictator calling all the shots. This time round it is the corporate Nazi fascist power that is choreographing events while keeping populations divided and arguing about the clown Presidents and Prime Ministers they have hand-picked and groomed to dismantle any and all opposition.
It is also worth noting (as reported by many historians) that upon his retirement in 1968 the US Government – I think it was a US State Department function – threw a lavish party in Washington for Rienhard Gehlen where he was given a standing ovation for his services to the American intelligence cause. I read several reports a few years about that but unfortunately I cannot easily find any of the articles which I read online back then (thanks no doubt to the Google and other search engine algorithms which have recently been upgraded to hide such disturbing facts)
Here are a few good articles to substantiate the claims above
Meet Reinhard Gehlen, Hitler’s Favorite Spy Who Used CIA Resources To Free Nazi War Criminals
Published 09 November 2020
Refer: https://allthatsinteresting.com/reinhard-gehlen
Reinhard Gehlen Dies, Spy for Hitler, U.S., Bonn
Published 10 June 1979
Refer: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/local/1979/06/10/reinhard-gehlen-dies-spy-for-hitler-us-bonn/3719b5c8-c229-4643-ac40-2ea4d0852573/
the following extracts from the Washington post Article as follows:
It has been estimated that he and the thousands whom he employed in his counterespionage organization provided this country’s Central Intelligence Agency and the Pentagon with 70 percent of its intelligence on the U.S.S.R. and Eastern Europe.
And some more from the Washington Post article
It had been apparent to the Americans that they were totally unprepared when it came to intelligence about the Soviets. Gen. Gehlen was given autonomous command over a personally chosen German staff to organize cold-war espionage in the Soviet zone for this country.
It is estimated that he hired between 4,000 and 2,000 people to work for him. Many of them were ex-Nazis. He was financed with millions of U.S. dollars.
West German chancellor Konrad Adenauer reportedly had much confidence in Gen. Gehlen’s skills, and he was given comparatively free rein after his organization became official.
And the following is from a Russian website – it is an excellent summary of the sordid history
THE GUNS OF AUGUST: Nazis, NATO and the Color Revolutions
https://www.invissin.ru/topics/ukrain_en/the_guns_of_august/#_Toc236059779
You will find chapter links at top of article – click on Chapter 5 heading as follows”
Reinhard Gehlen: head of Third Reich’s Eastern front intelligence – and the “top American spy”
Well done Allan. Have just read The Guns Of August that you linked.
It should be required reading for all as nearly everyone believes the NAZIs were all dealt with after WWII.
Good on you GRR
I will remain forever in a state of shock as to the fake world I grew up in and all the bunk I was immersed in my childhood. Like everyone in my generation I never questioned the official Hollywood accounts of what took place. We were the good guys and they were the bad guys. We beat them decisively to a pulp and that was the end of Nazi Fascism.
Prompted by a traumatic life-changing event years ago I fell down the proverbial rabbit hole and began a journey that has never ceased to shock me with regard to how we in the Anglo-American and West European nations were quite literally immersed in a Truman Show of complete fiction – the show goes on and gets ever more preposterous and unbelievable.
I am eternally grateful to all those researchers and historians who have devoted their lives to revealing the truth – a list of names too long to detail here who have been tirelessly courageous in their devotion to the cause. Larry Johnson being a greatly appreciated new find for me.
Since you enjoyed the info in Guns of August so much I have thought hard about what I might send you and others to further help shine more light on the reality.
I think you will appreciate this lot from the SpitfireList – the research of Dave Emory
The Secret Treaty of Fort Hunt
Refer: https://spitfirelist.com/news/the-secret-treaty-of-fort-hunt/
FTR #671 Update on the Meltdown, Part 4: Germany, the Underground Reich and the Global Financial Crisis
Refer: https://spitfirelist.com/for-the-record/ftr-671-update-on-the-meltdown-part-4-germany-the-underground-reich-and-the-global-financial-crisis/
Spitfire List is website and blog of anti-fascist researcher and radio personality Dave Emery
Refer: https://spitfirelist.com/
Perhaps the best historical summary of US/Nazi collaboration I’ve ever read. Thankyou
I see CIA as the maggots spawned on the excrement left in the field by the goosestepping Teutonic horse.
The Arsenal of Oligarchy has many faces.
Interesting tidbit: US ACI (May 45) tasked the young Henry Kissinger to act as Reinhard Gehlen’s personal translator.
Please forgive me if this is the wrong place to ask this. Is it possible to block another person who’s commenting? A few seem… deranged, to me.
Thanks in advance.
Who in particular?
Do you think he means you ?
I haven’t come across anything remotely worth censoring by you or anyone else. IMO, we need more discourse not less.
Bernard’s the Jews perpetrated 9/11 is normal and acceptable discourse? That is stupid, insane and rotten – especially when based on the thoroughly debunked thin gruel of “the dancing Jews” urban myth. Then again, there’s a lot of “The Jew rats are behind it all” proclamations around here – from the same crowd hating Ukrainians because they’re Nazis. I guess as long as everyone hates America such schizophrenia can be overlooked.
And they call *me* crazy
When MirrorGazer spams entire threads with his AI/ChatGPT-generated posts I just stop reading. I think he should be reigned in.
This is the Slippery Slope DeltaKilo is leaning towards. If you see a mess on the side walk, just go around it. Minor Gazer’s reputation has proceeded his posts.
Is he the former “Rubbingstickstogether”?
Why do you not try to do as I do, get from his/her comments whatever I find useful…
I am particularly interested I what he/she has to say…His/her style is obviously strangem and as I can see, frustrating for some, but I have met him/her through the past decade or so at several blogs and i have learnt a lot from him/her…
If it not were for MirrorGazers O would had not learnt about Dentsov, the ideologue of Ukrainian nationalism who preceded Bandera….Nor I would had taken a look at the events of the 2004 year….not to mention some books he/she uses to recommends…Well, take into account that not eveyrbody has access to his/her father´s excelent library…as some here happen to enjoy….
IMHO he/she is a person very knowledgeable on Russian issues, may be even with some insider knowledge….
Let´s take advantage of any contact with Russian people, especially if they are knowledgeable if we want to have peace anytime…
BTW, today it is celebrated in Russia what is, If I am not wrong, the first Congress of Russophiles, which looks like a great idea…if the borders were not so dangerous today…( recalling the case of the Spanish-Russian journalist jailed in Poland in isolation for a year already without any charge made yet against him….
A a side note, try to grow a thick skin with this Russian, he/she can be very funny, sometimes…Although I did not understood anything from his/her last comment…Try to connect him/her…I suspect he/she is a well of knowledege….
I can not understand why this happens in every blog he/she appears, that immediately a group call for him being banned, or is banned by the usual censors, like that horrible Briton who was moderating at The Saker…..
I vote for MirrorGazers to stay…although the last word is Larry´s, of course…
He/she could be a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences…because of something he/she told me once about a bus who has a stop there but you must take at Lubyanka…the number 4 trolleybus….
@Eric
`thoroughly debunked` as mandatory vaccines i guess…you can debunk everything, alongside claiming Russia is suffering 10/1 deaths in Bakhmut…all it takes is some wishful thinking- some cognitive dissonance can`t hurt either.
which brings me back to the post by Larry…
C’mon Deekay think about what you are requesting. You want censorship?
How can we ever get to read or hear others opinions if people like you delete everyone you disagree with or think are deranged?
What I like so much about Larry Johnson Sonar21 is how he does not censor even people who attack him unjustifiably with the most ridiculous dumb accusations.
Besides, reading the comments of the really deranged provide some great laughs.
What I like so much about Larry Johnson Sonar21 is how he does not censor even people who attack him unjustifiably with the most ridiculous dumb accusations.
I’ve noticed that. He just occasionally roughs them up a bit with very compact wording. I wish I had that talent.
I encounter some posters I find distasteful on occasion. I tend to ignore them, or challenge them.
I certainly wouldn’t want to censor them.
There are many MSM options if that’s your thing.
You are a weakling. Weaklings always have low tolerance and want to censor thought and speech.
This kind of post reminds me the second amendment might have been written to defend the first one.
Anyway , this is spot on on the article thematic. Snowflaking , filtering and algorithmic bubbling won’t help anyone understand.
It appears like the Khazarian bankers and their agents including the AIPAC are doing heck of a job monitoring and controlling the entire US’ secret Governmental agencies/departments from top to bottom. Paying officials who lie but firing those with common sense that don’t follow it.
When everyone puts in their 5 cents worth, or as Larry calls it tweaking the piece, we call that in the engineering circles “Design by Committee.” To say the least, the acronym F.U.B.A.R. accuretly sums up the outcome.
At the Colorado School of Mines, taking up half the roof of one of the lab buildings that you could see from a nearby hill, in big white letters:
‘Gud Enuf fer Guvermint Werk’.
That was a few decades ago, wonder if it’s still there.
The Intelligence Community works for the Administration as usual. And this Administration lies about the war in Ukraine like Bush lied about the war in Iraq. And in this case we can even compare what Ambassador Burns said in Moscow and Burns said like head of the CIA! And if that wasn’t the case, would he have become head of the CIA? As Pompeo said, the CIA is a lying machine. And when was it not? So we have to question whether the lies benefit the US or not? And now the purpose of lies is to take the European economy hostage, overthrow Putin, dominate Russia and slow China’s growth! And I would say, compared to the disaster of the US in the rest of the world, it would excellent news for the Biden administration. Just restoring diplomatic relations between the Saudis and Iran it wasn’t like Russia already taken Kiev, but as if Russia and China had taken NY! And the economy and financial markets are all about trust! As seen in US bonds and banks trading US bond whom Biden asks for money! Many things begin to fall apart in America!
If the whole point was/is – to dispose of all the old timed out munitions, (with the Russians and Ukrainians doing the hard work) as well as removing and destroying all the old soviet inventory – from all the Nato arsenals – and replacing it all with expensive, brand new, made in the USA kit – as well as sparking an unprecedented increase in the production of war material – this SMO has been an extraordinarily successful exercise. Oil, gas, and MIC profits are through the roof. What’s not to love.? The fact that they have accelerated the destruction of the dollar and screwed the working class of the entire “West” apparently is the price of the gamble. It’s possible they are so dumb that they actually thought they could carve up the Russian Federation like a turkey, again, just like in the glory days of the 1990s. That’s just one of the really scary parts. Fasten your seat belts.. it’s going to be a very bumpy ride.
The situation reminds me of a cartoon I saw, sadly I can’t find the image. A telegraph pole with a large bird sitting on the top looking down and a number of smaller birds below covered in droppings looking up. The caption read “shit heads, arsehole.”
You can always judge a company by the person at the top.
Way WAY back in the mid-1970s at Georgetown SFS, we spent a fair amount of time on learning how to avoid Groupthink using the Bay of Pigs example.
Blinken‘s wife would have attended similar lectures a few years later.
Wonder how all that know-how vanished
Larry all this is happening with no red cell? When was that process abolished? There will be a reckoning (maybe only when icbms are inbound) for having the poison ivy league be the default administrative class in all bureaucracies. The true source of group think just like the ring knockers from the service academies.
so many people with advanced degrees from top flight universities be so blind and so deluded
Well not being an outsider to these esteemed circles myself, I can easily see how being immersed in a hall of mirrors creates lots of reflections of those in the centre of the room………and since I know the US propensity for “grade-chasing” and “brown-nosing for advancement” I am hardly surprised at the Gleichschaltung of people who have been mass-produced by the Paul Nitze Center or Georgetown or John Hopkins or Harvard and Kennedy School where White House Warriors are put out to pasture.
Look at the career of Meghan O’Shaughnessy and tell me how else she would get to decorate so many boardrooms and opine at Harvard – I mean Harvard even let Heinrich Bruening have a go after his Rule by Presidential Decree in Germany gave way to the Austrian-who naturalised himself German
These are Factories just like the old Red Banner Institute in Moscow – and WE know just how mediocre much of the Soviet Intelligence was when fed through KGB residents as opposed to GRU and Directorate S…………….I mean Putin’s job in Dresden was to monitor Czech border with Bavaria and any Westerners coming to Dresden and to watch Stasi for their excesses……..it was hardly insightful stuff.
It is hardly The Paperchase with Professor Charles Kingsfield………….contrary to every Hollywood Drama the US despises mavericks and feeds them out – Conformity is key to success
Such a complete and didactical hands on report on the real world of IC ties is something i see for the first time.
Thank u Larry.
As an engineer, I have to agree with you, Larry. I can compare: Technical problems and organizational problems.
When a machine doesn’t run, it is a technical problem, and people asked me to help as I am the specialist. And, to my surprise, they will do everything I tell them, and, no surprise, the machine will run again.
When a project was made up because a series of machines had similar problems, my advice was first ignored. The situation did not improve. We lost time. More angry customers. Finally, some other boss from another department came up with my suggestion, never mentioned my name. They finally did what I told, and it worked.
So, I am used to this. I know that I can not discuss with machines, and that discussions with people are usually not for finding truth, but to show who is the boss.
Who is the boss of the USA? It is not Brandon. But who is it?
And how is the process of decision making in Russia? Is it just Putin to declare the orders?
US Intelligence agencies mainly get their information from spy satellites. Lately they have turned an evil eye against the spy satellites of the competition (Russia & China) https://www.vesti.ru/hitech/article/3248094
Russian satellites are constantly under attack
The head of FSUE “Space Communications” Alexey Volin spoke about the growth of cases of attacks on Russian satellites “from the adjacent territory.” According to him, the attackers aim to drown out or replace the signal.
To counter these attacks, the Russian Federation is creating a hardware-software complex (HSS) capable of identifying the source of malicious interference on the satellite constellation. It is expected that the development of the PAK will be completed before the end of this year.
Unfortunately, recently this has become particularly relevant, since there are constant attacks on the Russian satellite constellation from the adjacent territory, there are attempts to spoof the signal, there are attempts to drown it out,” Volin explained.
The PAK will be able to determine what kind of attack it is – a targeted random one, the expert added. He indicated that the degree and speed of the response would depend on this.
On February 5, Roskosmos announced the launch of a new Russian hydrometeorological satellite Elektro-L No. 4. This week, the device reached the operating point in geostationary orbit and began to perform its tasks.
It’s like Jack Nicholson said while playing the Joker in the the Batman movie: “This town needs an enima!” 60% of the DC bureaucracy could be fired tomorrow and the work product would probably increase and improve.
Larry’s comments about how free thinkers are dealt with by bureaucracies is 100% on point. My brother-in-law works for a federal agency and he has some stories that would make your spine shiver.
How bureaucracies encourage group think is a very serious problem within government(s), could possibly be the #1 problem with bureaucracies. That or the fact that they have far too much power and/or influence in how government runs.
For a group of people that seem all about diversity, inclusion and equity they sure don’t like other people thinking differently from them. It seems to me that Russia just wants to be left alone, at least culturally, to live their lives as they see fit. Unfortunately this group of globalized “Karens” will not allow this to happen. It’s think like us or be crushed until you either change your mind or die off.
Thank you Larry, now I understand better and better why Western politics has degenerated so much. Basically, the war could have ended a long time ago if the Western “intelligence” were not so narrow-minded. This gives little hope for future developments. With someone like Biden, who knows ONLY escalation and sooner or later drags us all into a nuclear war….
Roland- I have found the same. The bit that is annoying is the start. A small team of engineers is put together to solve a problem This they do quickly and concisely, but.
Have you looked at this? Not relevant. Write me a short study. What about such and such? Not reqd. Oh but ‘for completeness’ . . . and on it goes.
Result, paralysis by ‘analysis’. The good engineers get bored doing ‘make work’ and go elesewhere. The rest plod on until the horse looks like the camel.
The design is now expensive and you dont need that, manufactured and fails.
Then the first group is brought in to fix the kit that ‘dont workey’.
Like we told you early on. Do this, do that, chuck that out, and press start. Hey presto.
Same the World over it seems.
Blaming this on groupthink and stupidity is incredibly naive.
This “thinking” is directed by a trillion-dollar-a-year “defense” industry that has infiltrated every level of govt (and media) for their own benefit. The majority of intelligence “employees” are subcontractors working for the benefit of their real employers, who profit grotesquely from war and weapons.
Economics rule. Follow the money.
Teheran Times has gained access to a confidential document from Defense Intelligence Enterprise (DIE). It’s too long to cite but the content is almost identical to what Larry writes:
“Intelligence document: America is on decline”
The document is “indicating that the US is on a losing streak in the era of Great Power Competition (GPC).”
According to the document, the US strategic failures have derived from kowtowing to “policy-driven intelligence” instead of “intelligence-driven operation.”
In other words, the DIE, accounting for more than 75% of the whole Intelligence Community (IC), is procuring kinds of intelligence that are in favor of the policy-makers’ expectations.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/198496/Intelligence-document-America-is-on-decline
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/03/13/silicon-valley-bank-collapse-live-updates/11464387002/
Pardon the digression from Larry’s excellent article. SVB bank was not an outlier. Every bank in the US is technically broke. There just has not been a “run” on them yet. SVB has some particular issues relating to the tech field, but there is an underlying theme.
In the 2008 crisis “mark to market” was suspended. Mark to market is where an institution has to value assets at “market” value. Makes sense, right? The Feds knew every single financial institution in the USA would fail in 2008 if assets were actually correctly valued. So, they just said “fuck it”.
Every bank is carrying Billions of dollars of worthless asset on their books showing them at elevated levels. And their stock values, their assets underlying the loans they get are all based off those fictitious assets. And this is ‘Murica.
I will beat my drum again. Everyone was shocked when the Soviets collapsed. Including the current fools at the CIA. They will be equally shocked one day when the Evil Empire of the US collapses. We are a fictitious “Ponzi Castle” of cards. And no one has pushed, and the wind has not blown. A Trillion for this year’s Pentagon budget. Do you know how much of the budget will be consumed by interest expenses if rates merely stay at 5%? WHICH is not a “high” interest rate.
Europe is thrilled that they did not freeze to death this winter with their idiotic Russian sanctions. That is nice. Their energy expenses have tripled. Small businesses are filing bankruptcies at very elevated rates. They cannot afford the freaking electric bill. Since we are in a cold financial war with China and Russia, our main trading partner of Europe is going to be a broke basket case.
Element after element builds. There will be a reckoning.
Hell yeah Curt…bring on the Zombie apocalypse…the sooner the better!
I just hope it gets here before I am in a walker. And I ain’t running. I am going to stay on my front porch and see how deep I can stack them. Good times!
One trillion is a big number, beyond ordinary human comprehension. Yes, trillion rhymes with million and billion, so we feel a trillion is a big million. If you were to count out dollar bills, one per second, how many years would that take. Guess. Please, in your mind make a quick guess, an estimate….. I guessed a trillion seconds is ~400 years. I was way off. One trillion seconds is more that 30,000 years. Julius Caesar was ruling 2000 years ago. The Old Testament books composed maybe 5000 years ago. That last Ice Age melted 12,000 years ago.
A trillion is a big number, beyond our comprehension. We borrow (print) that much every year now for our deficit and spend that much every year for weapons, for wars, for what?
register
Trucks with Military equipment goes from Grecce trougth Bulgaria too..
https://obektivno.bg/desetki-kamioni-s-bojna-tehnika-na-nato-minavat-prez-balgariya-za-ukrajna/
USIC or DoD or the State Department or any other federal agency can say 1 + 1 = 11 but at the end of the day it equals 2…the truth is ALWAYS absolute just like a simple math problem. However, the “truth” does not matter to our political elites or their deep state three-letter agency operatives–only the perceived message matters.
If the peasant masses believe that 1 + 1 = 11…then the USIC has achieved its purpose.
Sorry to say, that’s where the peasant masses heads are at these days–they don’t care or they don’t want to know the truth. It’s up to blogs like this and its commenters to nonetheless keep revealing and pushing the truth.
Drive on Rangers!!!
Written about the business sphere, but applies equally about government bureaucracies.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/the-glorification-of-sub-mediocrity?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=323914&post_id=107891550&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Larry, this is disheartening that the people paid to perceive reality objectively in order to predict outcomes and shape diplomacy. Operate in a system that is already married to a “politically willed” outcome that actively denies dissenting observations. In the system you described is there any place where the dissenting, rejected, draft, etc. documents are still stored? Or does the editing and approval process simply grind them up and dispose of them? If the president asked for a complete audit trail of the re-versioning of a final analysis can he get that? Where in the system is dissention stored, and are dissenting trails still developed out further at all, or do they just end? It sounds like these agencies are just big censoring machines if they don’t bother to develop out every trail.
I don’t mean to pee on Larry’s parade, but what he describes goes on in every large (bureaucratic by definition) organization–banks, industry, Big Law, hospitals, NGOs (Red Cross, Planned Parenthood, etc.). You don’t color outside the lines–you get in-line, you don’t think outside the box–you’re boxed-in by executive management, you don’t rock the boat–you sit and pull on an oar. They are stifling, almost by design–certainly by practice.
Government is no exception.
Ray McGovern has noted that Brennan was the epitome of the practice of tailoring intel to suit political desires – and Brennan was soon made head of the CIA.
Do we need to know more?
It turns out Zelensky really went to Bakhmut back in the day. Wagner PMC took some photos at the same spot.
https://t.me/DonbassDevushka/48340
How do we fix it, Larry?
Thanks for this, Mr. J. Unfortunately, what you describe in “Intelligence” could be paralleled in almost any other large bureaucracy. Organizations get “too big to fail” — until reality finally intrudes, and they fail. Unfortunately, that process can take a long time, and the eventual collapse harms a lot of innocent bystanders.
If memory serves, President Putin fired some of his “Intelligence” advisors early in the SMO. It may be that they had served up too much happy talk about how Zelensky was unpopular and many Ukrainian citizens would welcome a Russian intervention — and not enough truth about the extent of US/NATO reinforcement of the Ukraine’s military capacity over the preceding 8 long years of war against the Donbas.
The real world often surprises bureaucracies — and any large organization is a bureaucracy. Heller & Stoft edited the book “America’s First Battles, 1776 – 1965” about US entries into 10 wars. Most first battles were disasters. The key for any organization is whether it can quickly learn and adapt. In the current conflict, that applies as much to US/NATO as to Russia. Time will tell!
“It is truly a matter of having people in management positions blessed with courage, integrity and a commitment to telling the truth no matter what the price.”
So Larry, what is your opinion in retrospect on Richard Helms?
Also Bobby Ray Inman?
And just for reference, here are two lists:
1946-2005
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director_of_Central_Intelligence#List_of_directors_of_central_intelligence
2005-2023
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director_of_the_Central_Intelligence_Agency#List_of_directors
Casey, Gates, and Webster seem to have held the helm when you were there.
Whenever someone says “Putin wanted” or “Putin didn’t want” their reasoning is immediately suspect. The Russian response in Ukraine is the product of the logic Putin set forth in 2008 at the Munich Security Conference. His desires have nothing to do with it. Its humorous to see the anthromorphisation of national strategy amongst emotionally-driven people. Putin himself has addressed it in various interviews over the years, explaining his role as a leader as a parent would explain something to a child.
Conformity is cowardice. And, bureaucracy is an antique form of organizational structure with centralized decision making that’s unadaptable and doesn’t learn from it’s mistakes. It’s a recipe for failure.
Well – the “Peter principle”.
There is “no herb growing against it”, we will have to be annoyed with it probably “until all eternity” …
Larry,
Did you ever wonder about the psychology behind this: “Director of the CIA is going to shade the truth”?
Having never been an intel. analyst or having worked in such a bureaucracy, I can only draw on my experience of studying history. One thing that I noticed from studying the Great Patriotic War was that the Germans always knew the truth/had the intelligence: about the number of tanks Stalin had, the fact that Soviet forces were gathering on the Volga bend, North and South of Stalingrad, etc. However, what consistently seemed to get in the way of them using the intelligence was a “second truth” or alternative explanation that allowed the hierarchy to discount the first truth. It was not nefarious, like they were trying to defeat themselves, but a psychological predilection to prefer one explanation over another.
I am not saying the Germans were the only ones culpable, Stalin did the same thing regarding the German intentions to invade in the Summer of 1941… he dismissed all of those reports as disinformation, preferring the “second truth” that the UK was promulgating them all to bring him into the war. Eventually he instructed his underlings to stop bringing him this British trash and that shut the whole information pipeline down. Stalin was not trying to “shade the truth”, but just couldn’t or didn’t want to see the truth.
In both those cases, the Germans and the Russians wanted to win the war, so them deliberately “shading the truth” does not quite describe what was going on. It is something much deeper, psychologically. IMHO And I don’t know what causes it to happen.
Any thoughts???
Where did the ‘Russians expected to win in 3 day’s’ narrative come from?
This is repeated as fact by our MSM quoting their guest analysts.
I have NEVER heard any of them quote Putin or any other Russian official.
It looks like … U.S. Generals made this assertion and when it did not come true, they suddenly attributed this to Putin. Am I wrong about this?
It came from those MSM and their guest analysts (U.S. Generals and other experts). It’s a textbook straw man argument. You create a false premise, and then defeat it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
Russians never said anything along those lines, because they are hiding their plans and goals (as Sun Tzu would advise). Those that expect fast victory don’t stock up on missiles, and run out of them fast (which is another thing those experts have been predicting for a year).
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27477/4733358/
The West begins to recognize the defeat of Ukraine: the Armed Forces of Ukraine are drained of blood and are on the verge of disaster
Military expert Litovkin appreciated the publications of Western media about the personnel disaster in the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The situation with personnel shortages in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which European media began to trumpet in March, at the suggestion of Ukrainian commanders of the middle and lower levels, was discussed on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda with a military observer, retired colonel Viktor Litovkin.
– Is the human reserve really depleted in the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
– The problem in the Ukrainian army is complex. There was not just a shortage of fighters – there is an acute shortage of trained personnel. But this is only part of the big problem. For the year of hostilities, trained soldiers and sergeants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already been knocked out, basically.
– But they had waves of mobilizations, didn’t they?
– Went. But Kyiv has nowhere to take trained soldiers from.
– What about foreign camps and courses?
– Reports that 10 thousand were trained in Britain, 30 thousand in the EU countries, two pilots were trained in the USA and 10 will soon be prepared – this is all information for the duped people.
– And in fact?
– Well, we don’t know how many Ukrainians are actually trained in Poland, Germany, England. Their business is to report that they have spent the money allocated for this task to the last pound and euro. And how they prepared these people, and whether they prepared them at all, is unknown.
– What is known?
– We have facts when prisoners who were trained in Britain say that they were taught little, except how to shoot from a prone position and walk in formation.
– Therefore, everyone is thrown to the front in a row?
We have seen this scene many times. Military registration and enlistment office workers stop ambulances, grab guys on the street and put them in cars, take them to assembly points, and from there, without preparation, to the front.
– Such people not only do not know how, but also do not want to fight?
– No. Moreover, many people in Ukraine, despite thirty years of brainwashing, have a growing feeling that they are fighting not for the native Ukraine, but for America and for NATO. Yes, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine himself said that “we are doing menial work here for NATO.” It is clear that this has nothing to do with the interests of Ukraine.
Do people just want to save their lives?
– Yes, because the conflict will end tomorrow, but you want to live every single day.
– But, maybe, publications in the Western media about the shortage of personnel in the Armed Forces of Ukraine appear to divert attention – but everything is fine there, really?
– I don’t think it’s good. The Russian army is moving forward in various directions. And the prisoners talk about dozens of corpses that remain in the trenches, which no one cleans up. About people who are thrown like cannon fodder to the front line, without proper training. It’s not about the articles that are published in the West. It’s about the reality that’s happening on earth. I think there is a lot of justice in what they write. Moreover, today they have no reason to support Ukraine. They see that all the help is wasted.
– Not in horse food?
– No. And it’s time to prepare the population of Europe and the United States for the fact that Ukraine will lose. This must be done gradually, step by step.
– Why is it so?
– Because everyone is tired of throwing their money and weapons to Kyev, as if into a black hole. It is clear that Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, a nuclear-missile power. And we need to dampen this situation. To show that we did our best to help Ukraine. But they couldn’t.
That is all the way the process that has been applied and impossed in every field of work during the “pandemic”, hence the unworthiness of working at any filed in “The West” unless things take a 180º turn ( not 360º as she takes out Annalena…)
Especially striking , besides of yours ( for what it implies with regard chances of peace, security, stability and prosperity of own´s country ), id the field of medicine, where a real crushing has happened on the ability to think, reason, question, analyze, for what it implies with regard survival of human species and viability of the planet as we know it…
The problem with JIT material procuring is when it doesn’t work it turns into way too late, and not nearly enough. With a really big dose of not nearly as good as what we ordered in the 1st place.
The real meat and potatoes of the bigger conflict is all the partnerships being formed behind the scenes. Every day the reserve currency loses. At the same time we read 2 conflicting versions of reality. Over time this process clearly reveals the liars. The frustration kicks in when everything the Empire does to slow the erosion speeds it up. The avalanche is still gaining momentum. Banks and markets.
By the time the USAers get up to speed with yesterday, tomorrows reality will put them in an even deeper hole. Still controlling the weather, being able to generate earthquakes, bio-weapons and all the dirty tricks from the legacy superior entities, will make for a long, dragged out dismal affair that the just following orders excuse will not explain.
If Putin can get some even more guidance from God and Biden sticks with the Devil via a tele-prompter we may yet see the light of day.
Prouty points out in “The Secret Team” that CIA operations have to be both covert and authorized. But to be covert there must be no traceable connection between the CIA operatives and the authorizing official. That is to say: CIA operations must be authorized by someone with no visible authority. The CIA is institutionalized madness, and, after the Kennedy assassination, is in charge.
@Reading tea leaves
No, that won’t happen and if they do it anyway, the USA and NATO will be completely annihilated and it also contradicts the Rand Corporation’s directive that the USA and NATO should turn their backs on Ukraine as soon as possible.
Here are the links from the blogger Thomas Roper. He supports his statement with links. His further links are in German, Russian and English. (Simply open it with the Chrome browser and it will translate into your language).
His Website:
https://www.anti-spiegel.ru/2023/teil-1-suchen-die-usa-eine-exit-strategie-aus-dem-ukraine-krieg/