I want to focus on one of the key themes in Andrei Martyanov’s essential book, Losing Military Supremacy–the weapon systems the United States is spending money to develop and deploy are obscenely expensive and completely vulnerable to Russia’s weapons created to defeat the American threat. Let me explain it this way. The United States has created the most expensive racing car in the world but the race it will run is over an off-road course littered with rocks, deep ruts and sandy mountains. In short, the vehicle will breakdown and not complete the race.
Here is Andrei’s summation of the problem:
Manipulation and PR are no substitute for actual victory which is defined universally as achieving the political objectives of the war, or in Clausewitz’s one liner—the ability to compel the enemy to do our will. The United States military’s balance sheet on that is simply not impressive, despite a mammoth military budget, immensely expensive weapons and a massive, well-oiled PR machine. All this is the result of the US military-industrial complex long ago becoming a jobs program for retired Pentagon generals and an embodiment of the neoconservative “view” on war—a view developed by people, most of whom never served a single day in uniform and do not possess even basic fundamental knowledge of the physical principles on which modern weapons operate and how technological dimensions reflect upon tactical, operational and strategic aspects of war (they are all tightly interconnected and do not exist separately). But talking up or blowing out of proportion, or grossly exaggerating US military capabilities does not require a serious academic and experiential foundation—today it is enough to have that desire and a good command of the English language to do so.
Excerpt From Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov
I want to focus on three key weapon systems–Air Craft Carriers and Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles.
U.S. Air Craft Carriers played a critical role in defeating Japan in World War II, but are no longer effective if deployed in combat against China or Russia. The first problem is the cost. It is staggering:
The cost of the Navy’s next three carriers is on the rise, due in part for installation of equipment and electronics to handle the new F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. . . .
All in all, the cost of the Kennedy, now more than 80% complete at Newport News Shipbuilding, will rise by $531 million, or 4.7% from the estimate in last year’s justification document, to $11.93 billion, the Navy now says.
The cost of the third carrier in the Ford class, the Enterprise, will rise $84 million, to $12.41 billion, while the fourth carrier in the class, the Doris Miller, will see a $33 million increase to $12.48 billion. Both ships are under construction at Newport News.
The cost of Kennedy’s basic construction — the hull, structures and mechanical systems, is set to rise by $368 million.
Five of these air craft carriers account for 7.5% of the U.S. Defense budget. But here is the problem. These ships have no capability to defeat a Russian or Chinese hypersonic missile. Andrei discusses the implications:
The introduction into service in 2017 of the 3M22 Zircon hyper-sonic missile is already dramatically redefining naval warfare and makes even remote sea zones a “no-sail” zone for any US major surface combatant, especially aircraft carriers. Currently, and for the foreseeable future, no technology capable of intercepting such a missile exists or will exist. . . .the X-32 (Kh-32) cruise missile whose range is 1000 kilometers and has a speed in excess of Mach 4.2. This missile, apart from being able to attack anything on the ground, is capable, in fact was designed primarily for the purpose, of hitting anything moving on the surface of the sea. The missile, let alone a salvo of them, is incredibly difficult, if even possible at all, to intercept and as the above-mentioned demonstration showed, Iran most likely would have no problem with allowing these very TU-22M3s to operate from her airspace in the event of a worst case scenario. Launched anywhere from the Darab area, the hypothetical salvo would not only cover all of the Persian Gulf but will reliably close off the Gulf of Oman for any naval force. No ship, no Carrier Battle Group would be able to enter this area in the event of a conventional conflict with Russia in Syria—the strategic ramifications of this are enormous.”
Excerpt From Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov
The cornerstone of America’s national defense is the nuclear triad–land based, sea launched and air launched nuclear missiles:
A compilation of platforms and weapons, the three legs of the U.S. nuclear triad serve as the backbone of America’s national security. The triad, along with assigned forces, provide 24/7 deterrence to prevent catastrophic actions from our adversaries and they stand ready, if necessary, to deliver a decisive response, anywhere, anytime.
Until recently the United States leaders and policy experts assumed that Mutual Assured Destruction would keep nuclear powers from killing each other. But what happens to that assumption/calculation when one side develops and deploys an advanced missile system that can shoot down the missiles launched from land, air and sea? Guess what? Russia’s S-500 air defense system does exactly that. Here is Andrei’s assessment:
the revolutionary S-500 air-defense system may completely close Russia and her allies’ airspace from any aerial or even ballistic threats. These developments alone completely devalue the astronomically expensive USAF front line combat aviation and its colossal investment into the very limited benefits of stealth, a euphemism primarily for “invisibility” in radio diapason, the mediocre F-35 being a prime example of the loss of common engineering, tactical and operational sense. Radiophotonics detection technologies will make all expenditures on stealth, without exception, simply a waste of money and resources.”
Excerpt From Losing Military Supremacy by Andrei Martyanov
What is the US strategy to counter this technology? You may think I am making this up, but a friend who is plugged into our defense plans explained it this way:
We will try to flood the Russian air space with so many missiles that some may get through.
Got it? We are not relying on technological superiority. We are hoping that some missiles get through.
Andrei’s objective in writing this book was to try to shake the American elites from their delusions about Russia and Russian technology and help them see the grave flaws in the U.S. defense systems that eat up so much of the gargantuan U.S. defense budget. Neither Andrei nor I want war between the United States and Russia. I know that Andrei will agree with me, it is still in the interests of both sides to find a way to live in this world together without threatening one another. But if conflict comes it is highly likely that the expensive veneer of perceived U.S. military might will be stripped away and the United States will find itself ill-equipped to fight a genuine first world power.
The U.S. and NATO are learning a great deal by watching how the Russians wage war in Ukraine and it’s going to help them improve their tactics and technology. They get to see Russian tactics in actual combat situations; see how they respond in both offensive and defensive situations. Even better is the fact that the U.S. gets to test out all of its new technology (Switchblade & Phoenix Ghost drones, anti-ship missiles, cyber weapons, etc.) without risking a single U.S. soldier. Essentially the Russian soldiers are guinea pigs for the testing of our latest weapons. We get to watch how effective the weapons are, how the Russians respond to them and then we can improve them and make them even more lethal.
You are more of an optimist. I’ve watched military exercises over 24 years and very little was learned. Plus, God help the officers who suggest Russia may have superior technology and our multi billion dollar systems don’t work.
LJ
Indeed – too much observing Russia could lead to the end of any remaining common sense in the US middle levels.
Sadly, the paycheck of the US MICIMATT* depends on not learning.
*Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank complex
The Russians are learning too, and by actually doing it, are likely learning a lot more than those just watching.
But aren’t the Ukrainians also learning just as much as the Russians?
At least the Russians had the good sense to do an orderly retreat. Compare that with the goat fuck Biden did last August.
They are learning what a total ass whipping is. Beyond that, Ukraine’s leaders are just looting the Ukraine’s treasure–money and people.
Why do you hate Ukraine and love Russia so much? Do you really think Russia is not corrupt? And what does this piece have to do with hatred of Ukraine?
I don’t hate Ukraine. You confuse telling truth with animosity. Describing Sirhan Sirhan as a murderer does not mean I hate him. Why are you not troubled by the Nazi expressions that dominate the government of Ukriane? You okay with neo-nazis? i do hate them.
They may learn something 4sure if they are paying attention.
But US already saw Russians operate in Syria and Georgia.
Note also we are seeing 15% Russian force capacity, local Donbass troops are being heavily used.
If the US can reverse engineer sought after weapon that would be different. Aukus is planning to jointly work on hypersonic weapons.
However, Russia has an advantage now. If they don’t use it they may lose it. To deter US will require some strikes on actual US targets to turn public opioid and get the ugliness of war message through.
It may well be that Russia is biding it’s time but it will never have better reason or superiority or weapons to strike the West.
“Note also we are seeing 15% Russian force capacity, … .”
How do you know this?
“If the US can reverse engineer sought after weapon that would be different. Aukus is planning to jointly work on hypersonic weapons.”
Planning, are they? Well, well, well. The Russians are well and truly doomed!
Here’s the thing: The US is no longer capable of large-scale, long-term undertakings. Sufficient social cohesion no longer exists b/c it has been destroyed by democracy and mass immigration and by suicide via multi-culturalism and “diversity.” Therefore, there will be no reverse engineering or anything else in your fantasy.
It’s too late.
Eventually they will, but it will take years.
IN any case, so what?
if the US could reverse engineer hypersonic missiles it would just mean Russia would not be able to use its non-existent aircraft carrier fleet.
And if you project trends in military technology development – why do you assume Russia will not develop further weapons and the us will develop further boondoggles. .
The U.S. and NATO had 20 years to “learn a great deal” about the enemy in Afghanistan. It didn’t help them. They still evacuated in disarray. The U.S. defense establishment only learns how to reap the profits of corruption.
And how did the Russian invasion of Afghanistan end?
My understanding is the Soviets left because of domestic economic pressures (Afghanistan does that to you). Najibullah’s army continued fighting for two years after the withdrawal (unlike the US/UK trained for 20 years Afghan army, that collapsed in days). If the US had not funded the Mujahideen (eventually the Taliban) Afghanistan would still be a relatively ‘progressive’ Socialist republic to this day (with guaranteed rights for women etc. etc. We all know how much the US loves a bit of Equality and Diversity. lol).
So watching a MMA fighter compete in the octagon doesn’t make a potbelly, couch potato into a World Champion.
“…without risking a single U.S. soldier. Essentially the Russian soldiers are guinea pigs for the testing of our latest weapons. We get to watch how effective the weapons are, how the Russians respond to them and then we can improve them and make them even more lethal.”
Good talk. Now, could you address the foundation of hate upon which your pertinent employment of observation is so feebly propped, allowing so wonderfully for you reason of being. Are you the wannabe Nazi, misanthropic to the core, perpetrator of false flag operations so grotesque in their nature, devil like in the intent to divide and conquer? Can you look in the mirror and see the destructive demon of your nature? Is there is anything constructive about you, besides your weapons of destruction which negate themselves of anything creative by default? Is that you Victoria? Is that you Oliver’s Army?
“The U.S. and NATO are learning a great deal by watching how the Russians wage war in Ukraine and it’s going to help them improve their tactics and technology.”
This is unknowable. Therefore, you don’t know it. Nobody but the Russians know what they are putting on display for the instruction of the US and NATO. What makes you think (besides embarrassingly cheesy MSM propaganda) that you know what weapons and weapons systems the Russians have, let alone the ones they have chosen to demonstrate for NATO’s edification?
Your assumptions are meaningless. Neither you nor the Western “press” knows what the Russians are doing. Propaganda is not truth.
Yeah except that for now the Russians have fielded exactly about 0 of their more advanced weaonry in Ukraine…
They barely fielded 90’s tech and updated versions of USSR hardware.
And again, against what the US and Ukraine put out , it is largely sufficient!
What can you observe from an hypersonic landing in Lviv??, it’s not as if those weren’t used in Syria, the US already know plenty about them!
That’s why they certainly don’t want to engage Nato against Russia.
Hell the US have never fought a war for Survival anyway, the US army are nothing but pampered lil bees!
And it’s not anti-Americanism to say it! in the French Foreign Legion we loooved the American to death! A US Soldier is allowed to “lose” anything but his gun in field training, whereas our French troops can’t lose a damn button without paying it and have to rebuy proper gear anyway!
The Russkies had to fight for survival against the golden Horde, the Turks from eastern invasions, the French , the Swedes and the Germans from the West.
It’ not a matter of likes or dislikes! They’re fucking tough, multiple times over than the US people.
When people are tough you fold against sandal and AK47 wearing arabs in Irak or Talibans, or even Viet Congs, and nowadays you see shitloads of americans fantasizing about warring against Russia in the YT Fox and CNN comments and the papers as well.
Better remain a Fantasy!
The most agreeable condition for a Russian to live is moscow and St Petersburg -45°C in winter where vodka below 60° freezes, not even speaking about the 30M hardass Russkies that live in Siberia or above the Arctic Circle surviving on Moose Blood!
Whereas 43% of Americans are Obese and 10% are addicts (acoording to your own studies)…
You better stay home.
I know literally nothing about the Russian S-500 system but I do know a little about radar, and that is that the beams are linear. The term “under-the-radar” refers to military aircraft going in at tree-top high below radar coverage. If it’s satellite-based, satellites can be jammed.
Aircraft carriers are floating airbases, period. A missile with a 1,000–kilometer (621 miles) range is not going to be effective against carriers operating further out. A thousand kilometers is only two-thirds of the way across Texas.
There is no doubt that the military spends millions each year. However, they do have extensive test programs before an airplane, missile, etc. is put into production. The F-35s flying today are not the same as the prototypes of 2,000. “Stealth technology” is aimed at reducing a radar target by designing the airplane so the beams bounce off at an angle rather than being reflected back at the antenna they came from. However, the high cost of military airplanes – and airplanes in general – is not the airframe and power plant but the high-tech crap the military and manufacturers want to load them up with.
Sam,
The point is that Russia can put a submarine or plane within a 1000 miles and launch. They still have enormous stand off capability and we have ZERO ability to intercept. The hyper sonic missile that hit Yavoriv in March caused real concern in the Joint Staff and Eucom. They realized they had no way of even warning about an incoming strike. Too fast.
Larry,
Have the choke points for Russian submarine deployments changed any? They’ll have to deploy before whatever war you envision or risk being sunk pier side. The USN isn’t the only navy with submarines and other ASW units capable of attacking the submarines of the Russian Federation should it come to war with them.
“Have the choke points for Russian submarine deployments changed any? They’ll have to deploy before whatever war you envision or risk being sunk pier side.”
Do you really think that Russian (or any) subs are just sitting “pier side”?
Don’t look now, but subs are ALWAYS at sea. And the lean, green mean machine has no idea where they are.
During the Serbian war, stealth fighters were shot down because they created a shadow in the radar net that moved. Russia learned and its systems are highly layered and integrated. The recent performance from the Tomahawk barrage in Syria indicated how advanced older Russian EW and S-XXX system performs against US state of the art systems. Meanwhile, that the US was not willing to use THAAD against the (very primitive N Korean missiles, suggested a lack of confidence in its performance). And if you look at the tests of hypersonic missiles – several of the failures have been from not launching! WTF?
And the F-35 is an embarrassment as a fighting plane. A trillion dollar embarrassment.
“Aircraft carriers are floating airbases, period. y”
If news stories–MANY of the–are to be believed, aircraft carriers are also brothels where the whores are always getting pregnant, and carriers are also gay night clubs and cruising grounds.
Do try to keep up.
“A missile with a 1,000–kilometer (621 miles) range is not going to be effective against carriers operating further out.”
Well, gosh! Good thing it will never occur to the Russians to–oh, I don’t know–GET CLOSER.
” … the military […] have extensive test programs before an airplane, missile, etc. is put into production.”
So what? Here is the overriding fact: The social cohesion necessary to undertake a large-scale, long-term national undertaking (for ANY purpose) NO LONGER EXISTS. We didn’t want it, so we sacrificed it to various girlish fantasies like multi-culti and equality and diversity. Why did we need social cohesion when we had all these cool high-tech weapons systems? Didn’t we prove that in Afghanistan and Viet Nam?
The country you are fantasizing about no longer exists, and it ain’t comin’ back. We didn’t want it, so we chucked it.
But the Russians DO have it. So do the Chinese. What’s more, they KNOW that we do NOT have it and that we CAN’T get it back.
“We will try to flood the Russian air space with so many missiles that some may get through.”
the problem with these US strategist is that they assume there still be operational weapons factory in CONUS producing replacement for damaged / destroyed armament when nowadays any peer enemy can hit back inside CONUS (unlike WW2 Japan/German) and incapacitate the already limited military infrastructure / depot / POL facilities / factories.
After decades of making war with non peer nations and never been attacked directly by peer enemy , the pentagon arrogantly think they can do this like usual. Would be a nasty realization when the first thing the enemy hit will be the pentagon
Exactly. And that doesn’t even take into account that we have had totally open borders for more than 30 years now. Lord KNOWS what assets foreign governments and other crime syndicates have in “our” country. I seriously doubt it would be necessary for the Russians or anybody else to resort to ICBMs or sub-launched missiles in order to shut down CONUS and everything in it. They have assassins and saboteurs and Lord knows what else already in place in the land of the freak and the home of the knave.
Suburban garages full of nerve-gas agents–and that nice young Iranian guy down the street–you know, the one that has the pest-control business with that truck that sprays for mosquitoes around town every summer–you know him. Everybody likes him. America is a nation of immigrants, ooh-RAH! We love our Muslim neighbors down the street!
And so on. It’s probably not commonsensical to assume that NOBODY has taken advantage of our open borders and left themselves with NO assets inside “our” country. It’s just possible you know, that our opponents are not stupid, incompetent, and backward. It is said (by people who are not abject idiots) that it is a mistake to underestimate one’s opponent.
It’s even stupider to believe the BS one hears on TeeVee. But apparently nearly everybody does exactly what.
I am constantly amazed at the sheer number of people who can read Mr Putin’s thoughts. It’s astonishing the degree of psychic power abroad in the American population. It’s as amazing as Putin’s godlike power to single-handedly destroy the world economy and force up the price of gas in Poughkeepsie and commit war crimes and be “literally Hitler” and to do all of that while spending most of his time being “a thug, a murderer, and a killer” to quote the late great John McCain.
Mr Putin is an AMAZING guy! One would think that if even one tenth of the things said of him are true, the “West” would be frightened to DEATH even to utter his obviously magical name. But it’s almost as though they are just shooting off their mouths–something they seem incapable of where Jeffry Epstein or election integrity are concerned. And how often are the Clintons so denounced–despite a pretty respectable body count?
You can’t fix stupid.
It wont be just weapon effectiveness against a peer level enemy like russia and china. Can US military run it’s ops when their satellites who US rely for Navigation , ISR and comms get jammed/disabled/destroyed/degraded ?
another thing is this : how reliant is the ground troop / soldiers on GPS navigation ? Are they still training on compass navigation ? Can US ground troops operate without air supremacy ?
US fought wars like Rich man fighting poor slum kids ..
All wargames of a US fight against China over Taiwan show the US rapidly loses ability to fight as an army, gets over-run, and resorts to nuclear weapons.
How long does it take a shipyard to build an aircraft carrier from laying down the keel to floating an operational ship? An aircraft carrier is irreplaceable and so are the aircraft and crew.
How does a country wage a war when it takes a decade or more to replace a ship, crew and weapons system?
Contemplating the loss of an aircraft carrier is incomprehensible to me. Not to mention the effect it would have on the civilian population in the USA.
Time waits for no one.
Note the US backs naval capacity with hundreds of bases world wide.
There are literally hundreds of US bases in every continent that means the US has a huge range of positions as back up even if navy keels.
operational bases , supply bases , they cant build ships.. the so called ‘hundred of US bases’ are practically an iron chain on US’s neck , instead of strenghtening their defensive posture they sapped US military strength and now we saw how badly US military need upgrade for it’s defense.
i dunno why someone boast about these bases , they are like open invitation to missile strike once the balloon goes up. they are there to support US empire’s world wide LIC style warfare , or ‘scare the natives bush war’ kind of warfare that sapped british empire’s strength
They are literally hundreds of sitting ducks.
One thing that has been overlooked is the manufacturer capabilities have been neglected …severly
While jets etc can be produced ,if serious losses started to occur it would be difficult to replace
Alot of machine shops have closed ,and the machinests are dead or retired or moved on ,there still are places but it’s not really scalable.
Everyone said this in the 90s and early 2000s ,but even then classes would close because nobody wanted to take them.
Today just try and find a place to cut a ring gear for a turret In the US
They’ve done away with vocational training and told the kids that if they’re not a doctor or lawyer, they’re a failure in life.
I knew a tool and die maker, who worked at Texas Instruments, back in the 80’s. His take home pay, after taxes, $ 1200 a week.
The bases mean faster boots on the ground than the enemy pretty much globally.
Eg in East Africa US has
-Chagos Garcia (near Mauritius) an illegally colonised island base (series if islands) still illegally held by Brits despite UK courts ordering it be returned to indigenous people.but US and UK ignored local and international courts. As you do.
– base in Isolo North Kenya and mega size embassy in Nairobi
– reopened base in Somalia under Biden
The huge increases we are seeing of US troops in bases may be linked to their understanding that navy may be limited.
for years no one ever challenged these hundreds of bases , if the balloon goes up those hundreds of bases will be easy meat as it is not hardened against military attack. example is how easy iranian destroy US assets in Iraq with few missiles.
Ps Larry your former bosses the CIA very busy working on wars in East Africa. Expect new uprisings in East Africa and South Sudan oil theft in near future.
Very high level government meetings to try to counter US plans but East African governments simply don’t have capacity to stop the US. But they are watching and know what they are upto.
Agreed. Ukraine is about separating Europe from Russia/China in the great US block vs China block trade bifurcation that is the big event of the 21st centruy.
Stripping away African countries and establishing its hold of S American countries is the next step for US.
Many however have seen and learnt from Ukraine’s example that as Kissinger said: To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal
The Great Bifurcation is also about globalization of the notion of empire and the reserve currency. It’s no coincidence that “Rothschild” secretly launched Bitcoin in 2008. In fact the design was published in 1998. That was 10 years after it was preannounced as the Phoenix on the cover of Rothschild’s Economist Magazine. See the 10 year cycle? And then 2018 was when Bitcoin hit $20k and went into mainstream consciousness. The next big milestone for Bitcoin will be 2028. I know something about this and the looming ANYONECANSPEND attack that propels the original Bitcoin protocol back into the forefront.
Now Russia now has S-550 anti missle system. They will keep pushing the boundaries for offensive and defensive missle technology while the US is way behind. The next logical step will be the ability to shoot down a hypersonic. Can the S-550 do this? At least Russia has hypersonics to test for that capability.
Hello. In Russia, they are very fond of a horror story about 10,000 American cruise missiles that will hit the country at the same time. Your talk about the S-550 (which has not yet been submitted for state tests) reminds me of exactly the same horror story.
The S-500 is a mobile missile defense system that is unlikely to have a significant impact on combat operations. Moreover, it is unlikely to have an impact on the strategic balance of power.
There are things in Russia that can be very unpleasant for Western countries, but for some reason you do not discuss this.
oops …now I spontaneously think of the comedy “Sgt. Bilko”. lol
Both the US military and the Russian military are excellent for their primary role.
Unfortunately in the case of the US military that is not the defense of the US.
US hegemony is ensured through finance and back-room deals.
But -again- unfortunately for the US, their financial weapons of mass destruction (FWMD) turn out to have expired batteries.
And the back-room deals without the ability to enforce them with FWMD are simply void. Doubly so if Russia is willing to export (or operate on behalf of other countries) their S-500.
I have a question. I read that Ukrainian parlament is deciding about to call young people from 16 years to army.
Does anybody know if this is true?
If yes , it would be incredible. Just like in Germany in 1945
Russia has in its favor the economic crisis in Europe…
Italy is a pressure cooker, France is a pressure cooker that can cause a coup; People do not know that France was very close to a civil war like the Spanish one (1936-1939) aborted by the Nazi threat; Spain profoundly weak without a truly operational army and servile high officers (I live in Spain and I am a witness) I will not expand, just say that Europe is a house of cards.
“People do not know that France was very close to a civil war like the Spanish one (1936-1939) aborted by the Nazi threat”
TRUE! Almost NO Americans know this. They know nothing but “Hollywood History.”
Hopefully it’s obvious from comments on the prior blog “Economic Blowback from Russian Sanction” that I don’t aspire to disobey the Lord in the Biblical scripture 1 Samuel 8 and thus don’t subscribe to an earthly king to guide me in wars thus enslaving me as the Lord warned is looming for all the AmeriKaans.
These ~300 million fools who aspire to Babylon are going to receive their just reward in full.
Thus I will be quite happy to see the military of the current impostor government of the “United States” defeated in the upcoming WW3 circa ~2025 – 2027ish.
But yes the Beast’s (not “our” because I don’t subscribe to this beast) weapon systems are not cost efficient among other issues.
The US is a wealthy country, opulent even. With all of the money floating around, we tend to spend on goods and services past the point of diminishing returns. This is especially true when financing is available or the money is coming from tax revenue because the consumer is divorced from normal microeconomic decisions at the point of purchase because they’re using someone else’s money – sure, the consumer will pay for it all in the long run, but most people don’t think that way. It’s not just the DoD. It happens big time in healthcare (where the presence of insurance acts as defect financing of healthcare equipment/tech and services).
Even US automobiles fit the pattern. I’ve got buttons and features in my truck that I don’t even know what they do and that I didn’t want or, obviously, need. The mechanics are so complicated that I can’t fix it myself should it break. The truck was very expensive too, but there were no viable alternatives. I would have preferred something more basic, like a 1970s model.
In a country like Russia with a smaller GDP (less tax money) and less developed mass financing, the government and people are forced to develop a more frugal approach. Costs/benefits and ROI must be scrutinized and considered to a much greater extent. The US suffers from “affluenza”.
meant to say , “where the presence of insurance acts as *de facto* financing of healthcare equipment/tech and services”
Damn spell checker snookered me!
Indeed. For example Russia manufactures the Lada Niva.
There’s some Russians in my private Telegram group and we’ve become friendly.
“the revolutionary S-500 air-defense system may ….”
Then again it may not. Where has it been used successfully in combat?
So far the S-400 has been shooting down anything that comes in its range.
Which is how many aircraft to date?
Yesterday, The Russian Air Defense forces shot down 2 Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft and a Mi-8 helicopter. That is just one day. They’ve been doing at least one a day for three months.
Here’s an updated list:
since Russia launched special military operations, the Russian army has destroyed 192 Ukrainian aircraft, 130 helicopters, 1150 unmanned aerial vehicles, 335 sets of air defense missile systems, 3459 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 489 multiple rocket launchers, 1822 field artillery and mortars, and 3488 special military vehicles.
Thank you! Do you have the comparative counts for Russian aircraft shot down?
HAVE Russian aircraft been brought down? Who says so? NOBODY knows what is going on inside the Ukraine. I don’t CARE what “reports” anybody puts out. NOBODY knows the situation on the ground OR in the councils of war. The acceptance of obvious propaganda as Gospel truth is an amazing sight to behold.
When war comes, the first casualty is truth.
It should not be necessary to continue pointing that out.
Greetings from Russia.
The situation in the sky over Ukraine is complicated. time, only army (helicopters) and attack aircraft (Su-25) work effectively. I do not want to give an approximate figure of losses. They are significantly smaller than those that the Ukrainians talk about, but they are significant enough to abandon the massive use of American-style aviation.
Before the war, Ukraine had a very numerous and echeloned air defense system. Russia managed to destroy air defense as a system in the first days of the war, but many anti-aircraft missile systems survived. Now the Ukrainians are using ambush tactics. NATO scouts over the Black Sea transmit information to the Ukrainians. They know where and how many Russian planes are flying. This led to losses in the first months of the war; at present, front-line aviation (SU-34, Su-24) is used to a limited extent.
The main load is borne by army aviation (combat helicopters) and attack aircraft (Su-25).
I do not want to give an approximate figure of losses that I know. It is significantly less than what the Ukrainians are talking about, but enough for Russia to refuse to use American-style aircraft or what we could see in Syria.
Saturated air defense, even with old Soviet systems, is a rather serious challenge for any modern army.
Back in 1976 the skipper my DDG said that we would price ourselves out of a job. He was a clever guy who spot on.
I remember US Naval Institute articles challenging the super carrier concept.
I remember as I left active duty programs to seriously update the F14 and A10 airframes; the Russians would have done this. We built a new aircraft FA 18, then a jack on all trades that didn’t do anything as well as what it replaced.
I saw an LCS pier side once, and walked away wondering what the hell it was good for. Small armed shallow water ships are a European specialty. No good reason to invent sometime new.
Lobbies. No more to be said.
For Eric Newhill: Sadly the USA gives the appearance of a rich nation; its not. All is and has been bought on the national credit card. Those of us in fiscally responsible states will soon be punished with the debts of others. They can stuff i!
Not long before he died last year the military reformer Pierre Sprey, who among other accomplishments shoved the A-10 down the throats of the kicking and screaming USAF brass, remarked “The U.S. Navy now has two kinds of ships – submarines and targets.”
Black humor but funny. Not funny for those sailors on the surface though.
I love the US Military…served in it for 33 years. That said, I believe the US Military is in for a future ass kicking by a peer military force (e.g. not the Taliban, ISIS, or Saddam’s Republican Guard).
It’s doubtful that Russia has showed its hand militarily in the Ukraine…by that I mean it has not unleashed its most potent military capabilities for all of NATO to observe. In fact, it’s likely that Putin is only giving NATO a glimpse perhaps to misguide the overall capabilities assessment of the Russian military…call it a deception plan that emboldens NATO.
The US spends about 30% of its military budget on Personnel, 30% on operations and maintenance, 30% on procurement and roughly 8% on R&D and the balance on construction and housing.
You can tell where the priorities lie based on the money spent…for example the US Navy gets the most money for procurement while the US Air Force gets the most money for R&D. The Army gets the crumbs.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/239280/budget-plan-of-the-us-armed-forces-by-department-and-appropriation/
We can glean a couple of things by the budget and how the US intends to fight. It’s pretty simple actually…the US plans on dominating Air Space and water ways… or stated another way by ruling the skies and seas.
I’m pretty sure Russia, China and others have done the simple math too…and I am pretty sure they have developed systems to counter those threats. Could you imagine the morale blow to the US by the sinking of just one aircraft carrier…it’s not inconceivable.
“I pity da fool” (quote from Larry’s earlier article) that would try to attack the US mainland but that is not the most probable location of the next big conventional war. And…the US does have nukes…and nukes make a big bold statement that few would want to defend against.
Lastly…the following scenario(s) would easily overwhelm US/NATO capabilities if they happened simultaneously or proximately:
– Russia’s special military operation in the Ukraine (check…it’s already happening)
– China invades Taiwan (now’s the time and China knows it)
– Iran et al takes a couple big swings at Israel (You know they want to lol)
– North Korea goes full retard and launches attack against South Korea (you know they want to lol)
Biden is the weakest CINC in perhaps US history (and the most senile). Very volatile times we live in my friends…hang on tight.
Great comment.
– China invades Taiwan (now’s the time and China knows it)
I wish someone would tell me exactly how China will invade Taiwan. I’ve been asking this question for months now to no avails.
From 19 February – 26 March 1945, it took the Americans 12 Aircraft carriers, 14 Battleships, 7 Troop Transports numerous attack transports, landing ships, support ships etc, in excess of 600 ships in total with over a hundred of them large capital ships to land 70K marines and equipment onto Iwo Jima to face down 20k very well dough in Japanese soldiers. All the while, they had absolute air and sea dominance. And still, US lost 7K marine in this battle.
So I ask again, for the 20ith time, how is China going to land a force of say 100k and heavy equipment onto one or more Taiwanese beachheads?
China probaby can’t invade Taiwan but they probably don’t need to do. They can probably effectively blockade within the first island chain and dare the U.S. to bring an aircraft carrier inside to face hypersonic missiles assault.
Taiwan has known that this was coming for a long time. I find it very hard to accept that a relatively wealthy and highly intelligent people like the Taiwanese would do absolutely nothing on the way of preparation.
China probably does not have the lift capacity to invade Taiwan. Instead expect a blockade and/or for China to invade another contested island.
The U.S. Navy likely committing suicide if they try to operate in the strait that separates China and Taiwan. Would the U.S. Navy blockage the entirety of China from outside the first island chain instead so as to protect its aircraft carriers from hypersonic missiles?
Imagine what a blockade of manufactured products from China and Taiwan would do to the global economy.
I will claim you have your thinking inverted on who is instigating who to attack. The globalists are pulling the strings and the U.S. forced Putin’s hand probably at the behest of the Davos elite. The rumors are the Biden administration is trying right now to instigate a war with Iran. The globalists want WW3 because this will bring about their plans for the NWO and a new monetary system.
Biden is an intentionally installed stooge. This is why the election was rigged.
Now the question is will our nukes even function? We can barely produce tritium anymore.
*blockade
Expect the globalists to arrange for one U.S. aircraft carrier to be sunk inside the first island chain in order to galvanize U.S. public support for WW3. Then the U.S. Navy will be forced to blockade all of China from outside the first island chain?
Excellent comment! Good points all!
“It’s doubtful that Russia has showed its hand militarily in the Ukraine”
YES! THIS! THANK YOU for pointing out the glaringly obvious (which shouldn’t be necessary, but is)! GREAT comment!
I wish someone would tell me exactly how China will invade Taiwan. I’ve been asking this question for months now to no avails.
From 19 February – 26 March 1945, it took the Americans 12 Aircraft carriers, 14 Battleships, 7 Troop Transports numerous attack transports, landing ships, support ships etc, in excess of 600 ships in total with over a hundred of them large capital ships to land 70K marines and equipment onto Iwo Jima to face down 20k very well dough in Japanese soldiers. All the while, they had absolute air and sea dominance. And still, US lost 7K marine in this battle.
So I ask again, for the 20ith time, how is China going to land a force of say 100k and heavy equipment onto one or more Taiwanese beachheads?
Relates to us plans to start another war in Africa: as brief article indicates, the “lovely” neo con thug nuland is on it:
https://www.voltairenet.org/article217016.html
Article is a tad disjointed but scrolling down, a brief quoted summary:
The U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, therefore travelled to Morocco on May 11 to chair a meeting of the Global Coalition against Daesh. 85 states participated at the level of their foreign ministers. Predictably, Ms. Nuland denounced the re-formation of Daesh, no longer in the Middle East, but in the Sahel. She invited all participants to join the US in fighting this enemy. However, as everyone had seen the massive Pentagon support for the jihadists in Iraq and Syria, all the diplomats present understood that the storm would soon break. Weapons were missing and the Pentagon did not want to be caught in the act of delivering them again to the jihadists. It will just have to get them from the Balkans, where they are still waiting for their end users in their crates.
A war in the Sahel will not be a problem: it will spare the great powers and will only result in African victims. It will last as long as it is fed and no ally will allow itself to notice that this conflict only exists since they invaded and destroyed Libya. Everything can continue as before: for a part of humanity, the world will remain unipolar with Washington at its center.
Thierry Meyssan
Translation
Roger Lagassé
Blinken made a urgent visit to Kenya in last month I hear, to twist Kenyas arm to break it’s defence pact with Ethiopia. He failed.
But the bastard regime in the US has only retreated to plot again. These fuckeds have not evolved from giving infected blankets to native American as bio weapons to exterminate them. That is the mindset of the current US leadership both political and unfortunately, increasingly, military.
“These fuckeds have not evolved from giving infected blankets to native Americans … .”
L-O-freakin’L! That right there is school-girl-level silliness!
Contrary to what American schoolgirls believe, there was no secret and well-equipped laboratory in colonial America in which to isolate and store pathogens before (somehow) manipulating those pathogens in such a way as to avoid infecting one’s own bad self before (somehow) “placing” them into blankets where they were kept alive by … something … until they could be “delivered” (somehow) to the hapless but noble savage, to ALL of whom the evil white colonial “mad scientists” had contrived (a way) to assure the transmission of infection by mere exposure!
Science has obviously gone WAY backwards since the 18th century! They knew how to keep pathogens alive indefinitely in dry blankets (without water), AND they knew how to assure infection by mere exposure, but nothing even remotely like those amazing feats of “science” can even be conceived of today.
Not to mention that they didn’t even have a germ theory of disease in those days and would have had exactly NO idea of “infected blankets,” since such an idea was not possible–not even thinkable at that time.
It’s hard to decide who is the stupider–those who made up that idiotic tale, or those who believe it–even now! And yet we are living in a time when people constantly yammer about “the science.”
YOU ought to be reading and commenting at Breitbart.
God help us!
Sorry I forgot you were there.
Yes of course. Humans must have had zero observation skills at that time.
I spend time looking into all weapon systems and it’s interesting. When you have it, you want to use it.
USA has more high tech military hardware and everything is more comfortable. Trucks with command centre are like a nice office, vehicles have decent interior. They also lead in drones and might have superior GPS and guided weapons. Their drone swarms for reconnaissance with AI detecting enemys and sending their location to HIMAS all done automatically is impressive. Ofcourse a real army has air defense and Russia kan shoot those drones down and keep moving it’s hardware when drones are detected. To achieve that you need to give air support to all your troops. Seems Russia failed with that and they lost enough troops and equipment to drones. Same for getting ambushed, Russia failed to have a drone strategy which should be your front line these days, not tanks.
Russia has more basic hardware, which is cheaper. If it works it works, KISS, the less stuff you have they less things that can break down. I’m a numbers guy. If you can produce more then the enemy you are likely to win the war. USA naval fleet is more advanced than China, but currently China has higher production.
I’m mad that my country bought F35 knowing that it’s crap. Before they are delivered it will cost billions more on updates and then they are still crap. Why build 1 F35 if you could build 100 cheap bomber drones? If you raid the enemy with 200 drones who cares if they shoot down 100? Those 100 making it will destroy a lot of the air defenses and hardware. The next 200 drone raid will be more effective. Switchblade drones are 600$, what if you launch 1000 of them? Why need design drones for trenches? I got some nice ideas instead of losing soldiers clearing them.
The USA has impressive weapon system but they don’t work in a real war. They had a great textbook plan for Iraq, Syria, but in reality it doesn’t work. Fighting a real enemy and occupying them requires a much more complete strategy.
“Seems Russia failed with that and they lost enough troops and equipment to drones.”
How do you know that?
I have to say that the level of knowledge of military secrets is pretty high these days. It seems that every internet commenter is privy to Russian military secrets. It’s nothing short of amazing! Especially given that these events are taking place on the other side of the world. The Russians really ought to be more circumspect in their operational security. Everybody with a TeeVee knows all their secrets, and everybody with a laptop publishes those secrets. Somebody ought to tell the Russians about this.
The LPR and DPR and Russia MOD published KIA figures. That’s how it gets out oddly enough.
I have said many times that US weapons systems always achieve 100% of their real design goals and most do much much better.
It is just important to realize what those real goals actually are.
Hint: its not delivering an effective defense of the country.
Years ago HBO did a movie version of the book The Pentagon Wars. Itvwaa the story of the development of the Bradley Fighting[sic] Vehicle. The movie presented as a comedy.
In Andrei’s book, I remember him talking about Russian anti-ship missiles in Syria. Once they moved close enough to the region, a U.S. aircraft carrier immediately pulled out of the Persian Gulf into waters more distant. Also, Russian cheaper diesel submarines, even though they have nuclear, are very quiet and alongside hypersonics, make the U.S. carrier-centric navy less effective and put the burden on the U.S., not Russia.
As you stated, cost but also effectiveness on some weapon systems are significant Russian escalators, that the U.S. has not climb high enough to offset.
It is very funny that people on the other side of the ocean draw completely different conclusions from the war that is now unfolding in Ukraine.
From Russia it looks like this:
1. Air defense is very serious. Even focal air defense poses a great threat to combat aviation. A layered and saturated air defense system can completely clear the air over a theater of operations.
2. On the battlefield, everything is decided by artillery and logistics. It is very important to develop intelligence, counter-battery combat and logistics.
3. Only motivated infantry is capable of advancing on enemy positions. Mobilized citizens do not remain stable in modern warfare, they are not capable of conducting active offensive operations, and their combat value is negligible.
4. There is never too much military equipment. It’s better to have a lot of mediocre equipment than a little great equipment. The country must be able to produce and rapidly increase the supply of military equipment during a high-intensity conflict.
Larry, can you confirm or rebut Ritter’s assertion that Ukraine has shot down some incoming Russian missles? Not all but some like 1 in 6 or 1 in 8? Didn’t specify if they were hypersonic or not.
I have not heard that. If Ukraine had done so I’m sure they would be crowing about it.
Ritter is also focusing on a comment by Lavrov that the seems to limit the Russian political goal to denazification of Eastern Ukraine, not all of Ukraine. Is this a faulty translation, a partial statement, or otherwise from Lavrov?
Greetings from Russia. It is a very amusing tradition to define Russia’s internal political processes by poorly translated phrases of individual ministers.
Now we see that the goals declared by the Russian CPR (Higher Political Leadership) have not changed at all during the ongoing war.
Moreover, the rhetoric of a part of the VPR of Russia is currently being radicalized. In the last couple of days, Dmitry Medvedev, Dmitry Peskov, Valentina Matvienko have been very tough.
It is important to distinguish between declared goals and real ones. The modern VPR of Russia is quite flexible people, they are not fanatics seeking to destroy the whole world. Their political stability is based on the economic stability of the state. Therefore, they can limit themselves to small.
Of course, the real goal of the operation is the division of Ukraine, during which the southern part of it will be absorbed directly, and the north and west will be integrated into Russia’s international structures, such as the union state and the CSTO.
At the same time, everyone has an understanding, even at a lower level, that Russia’s potential to achieve such goals may not be enough. From this it follows that you need to swallow as much as possible.
The population of Russia is now quite far from fatigue, military factories are working in three shifts, the war will continue.
There is an understanding that sanctions damage the economy and will affect the future, but the West promised that it would destroy our economy in three months. Those months passed, but nothing happened. Therefore, the threats of the West at the moment are not as frightening as they were at the beginning.
Why do I ask this? Need to know what is going on with reasonable accuracy so one Can rebut false narratives, encourage grassroots action to reverse the crap coming out of DC, and make effective changes. Because I know US politics in the way the oppressed has to understands his oppressors. I’ve done grassroots gun rights politics for thirty plus years. At some point all this analysis has to be turned into a concrete action program to hold the clowns in DC accountable if, and it is a remote “if” due to the cultural decay, to restore some sort of livable republic with responsible liberty.
I do doubt it. But as Nietsche said, “Understanding stops action. And men of action show their awareness of that fact by shunning the dangers of comprehension.”
An interesting little tidbit.
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2017/02/06/grounded-nearly-two-thirds-of-us-navys-strike-fighters-cant-fly/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Stryphnos
> …a man of extraordinary rapacity and rare dishonesty, who used his position to sell off the sails, anchors and other equipment of the fleet, down to the very nails of the ships. His actions marked the effective end of the Byzantine fleet, which was hence unable to resist the Fourth Crusade a few years later.
I suppose looting the country via selling shit that doesn’t work represents progress.
BTW, isn’t there a 2-star somewhere who’s job it is to make sure all those Javelins had fresh batteries? What else in our stockpiles needs inspecting? The rot runs deep.