The bizarre statements flowing from Ukraine’s political leadership would be great grist for a superb comedy show except tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are being killed and wounded. Their actual suffering makes it difficult to chuckle over the craziness displayed by Zelensky and company. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov proclaimed today:
Ukraine is massing a million-strong fighting force equipped with western weapons to recover its southern territory from Russia . . . . Retaking the areas around the Black Sea coast was vital to the country’s economy
Not so fast there bucko. The UK’s Daily Mail, which has been one of the frenzied cheerleaders extolling the imminent victory of Ukraine over Russia, became Debbie Downer today with this report (courtesy of Andrei Martyanov):
Like many of his male friends, Serhiy no longer leaves his home in western Ukraine for fear of being sent to the front line to replace soldiers killed or injured in the fight against Russia.
The construction worker spends his days hiding from military officials serving call-up papers at bars, beaches, checkpoints, malls and even church services.
As casualties mount on both sides, there was anger last week after Ukraine’s military revealed plans to bring in permits prohibiting men eligible for conscription from leaving the region where they are registered under martial law.
This restriction of movement for men aged 18 to 60 was criticised by President Volodymyr Zelensky and revoked, but it highlights the struggle for a nation suffering more than 20,000 casualties a month – officials admit up to 200 troops are killed and 800 wounded daily.
Looks like Ukraine’s Zelensky should be asking Biden to send over some cowboys on horses. Why? Those swarthy wranglers could be used to round up the Ukrainian men avoiding military service like stray cattle. Cowboys are good at herding animals headed to slaughter.
What is shocking about the Daily Mail article is the admission by Ukrainian officials that they are suffering huge losses–200 kia and 800 wia per day. Just do the math. Two hundred per day times 120 days (i.e. , 4 months) equals at least 24,000 dead. Wounded is in excess of 96,000. The number of casualties is probably much higher. Today, for example, the Russian MOD reported that it killed 300 Ukrainians in the Donestsk and 250 in Kharkov. In addition, Russia reports that 70% of the 25th Air Assault Brigade has been destroyed. That means between 1400 and 2800 soldiers.
Material losses also are piling up. At the start of the war, Ukraine had 166 helicopters. Russia claims it has shot down 137 as of 11 July. Aircraft losses are grim as well. At the outset of the war Ukraine listed 181 aircraft in its Air Force. Russia claims it has downed 243 planes. This number includes those air frames sent by NATO allies. In short, Ukraine has no functional Air Force left to carry out combat missions in support of a ground offensive. While it is conceivable Russia is overstating the number of fixed wing and rotary wing craft destroyed, Russia knows exactly what Ukraine has and only has to wait for the remaining planes to get take-off before targeting them for destruction.
There is no million man ground force in Ukraine capable of launching an offensive against Russian positions in the Crimea. There are no tank brigades or air force units intact to support such an offensive.
One final piece of bad news for the 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade operating near Artemovsk in the Donetsk People’s Republic–Russia hit the Command Post today. If true, that means the 58th Brigade has been decapitated and the men of the 58th deployed in trenches are on their own. Dis-spirited, shell shocked troops will find it difficult to put up a credible defense. This is the reality of war. A mythical million man Army is a macabre joke.
Makes me wonder what coke mix they smoke. (I hope you got rid of the 911 troll they can wreck forums) they ruin my enjoyment of your like minded and intelligent articles that you put some effort into. Everything I see reflect what you wrote. I have a dozen telegram channels sending images all the time. They have only increased in volume the last couple days. The expressions on the Russian soldiers are those when you are winning a game. A couple months ago a lot of them looked tired not now.
Here is some news President Putin today made all Ukrainians where ever they are eligible for immediate (fast track) Russian citizenship (formerly it was only new controlled areas like Kherson) Any Ukrainian in Kiev or Lviv can fill out one page and get a passport immediately. 40 million new Russians. If you go through the normal process you must speak Russian live there for 5 years and have proof you can support yourself (or so I read). This is smart Larry because now people will have this idea in the back of their heads. Informers will be less worried because there is an escape route if they need it. I have been predicting for a long time that in the end the average Ukrainian in the street will blame Zelenski the EU and Nato not the reverse. Being Russian cuts some weight they can be important and feared again like they were in the USSR. The college yuppies that run the nationalist meme will need to become college scholars in Germany and Sweden. Germany is doomed they have been taken over by the same types we have in the US but even worse.
The Euro today crashed to parity with the dollar for the first time in 20 years.
If only you had seen the vids we saw here in Moscow of Zelensky and his rows of nosecandy next to him on his office table…
Harry Hobbes says
You are giving cowboys a bad name…
True, honest-to-goodness cowboys always give a cow a “way out” from the pressure; and the cow, being sensitive to pressure, and looking for relief, makes the right choice.
Herding and forcing are the tactics of politicians and bureaucrats.
Larry Johnson says
True. But I couldn’t get the image out of my mind of Ukrainian police dogging down prospective (and reluctant) recruits. Cowboy wrangling sprang to mind.
When you initially talked about leadership and CIA being less organiser than it appears I said ok that’s probably true.
As time goes on I understand what a key concept that is to grasp. This whole debacle in Ukraine is trundling along, could explode unpredictability and yet the collapse of solution finding and group think among all western governments in staggering.
I can only conclude MICCIMATT wants to milk this cow as long as they can (to use your cowboy analogy), however this is not a cow, this is a gorilla. Drunk on previous success they no longer know the difference.
They are clearly going to go all out to try to keep the south. NATO all in on that. Let’s see what their combined brains produce.
In the meantime all members of Congress and defence need to be made to disclose investments and connections including if family to defence, oil, gas, and biological research companies. Could be eye opening.
We know Bidens. End of quote. Repeat. We know Bidens.
One thing to bear in mind. In America the democrats are winning the ground operation (control of courts, prosecutors, narrative, media, reinforced areas, population).
The republicans are not unified. Which is good as most are RINOs.
However the state has learnt from the Boston Tea Party days how to deal with internal threats
For the ordinary person the dynamic is quite simple. Cause and effect. This is the line corrupt groups must dance on and destroy.
Who/ what caused poverty
Who benefits financially
What caused this to happen
The media and political class has succeeded in that much of the public no longer looks at cause and effect.
The look at ‘solution’.
This is there. Who can help?
I am here who can help?
This has happened what do we do.
This mass loss of critical thinking and reasoning is problematic.
When multiple causes are there e.g. Why is there inner city poverty, why did Russia invade, why is there inflation. The public can’t deal. It’s simple binary baby level then ‘solutions’.
Compare Russia education. Israel’s silicon valley largely russian educated. Expats will tell you the one thing that’s great is education there. I understand that when they write essays there is no conclusion. Just intended training on reasoning both sides. Non binary education, complex thinking, understanding of statistics and causation.
If America is to be free change in ground game is needed. And intolerant liberals own education and universities. Teachers live in fear.
The next generation are completely unequipped mentally to compete with Eurasia. So they will happily stand behind MICCIMATT.
I’ve seen rumors that Russia will formally declare war on Ukraine.
As far as I can understand, it will mean general mobilization and switching to a war economy.
There is a build up if strikes on Russia itself that is problematic.
Putin already put industry and weapons manufacturing on war footing last month.
All prospect of negotiations are dead. Zekensky still won’t let up not with NATO. Himars alone won’t win war but these are serious weapons and they’re doing damage, theUS satellites guiding them are still there.
Russia need to look at taking satellites out to gets proper grip of this. This means taking out NATO equipment assisting Ukraine.
Zekensky has obviously still been told more help is coming.
Reports are Russia expect NATO to escalate. Polish troops crossing border.
I saw a post on Telegram today of HIMAR missiles that were shot down by Russian Pantsirs. On display in photos were destroyed missile casings with US serial numbers on them as evidence. These could be fakes as could the claims of successful HIMARS strikes … who knows? I don’t think the news that Russia is panicing is valid though … I think if anything they need to deploy more air defences. HIMARS is after all just another missile system despite their satellite guidence. If Russia can defend against incoming missiles then every HIMARS attack is an opportunity for counter battery fire.
I believe it gets worse if Ukraine gets longer range missiles because it greatly increases the area that has to be defended and satellites can target undefended sites but the rumor is the USA has limited stocks of the long range HIMARS missiles to give Ukraine.
Credible reports that Russia bought a HIMARS from Ukraine for 800k from same source that reported now verified claims of French weapon sales to Russia.
800k, who says everything is inflated.
People often forget senior ukie officers trained in USSR with their Russian counterparts. These were their drinking buddies, their on field buddies. This is a war between brothers with complex connections.
Really really bad idea that the Russians are not going to implement.
The US would respond by taking out Russian satellites, and shortly there would be no GPS, and that would have a fair chance to escalate nuclear given the economic and military damage. Plus the ISS and Chinese stations likely would be punctured by the orbital debris.
Larry, an Axios article interviewing a Zelensky official a few weeks ago has this official admitting to upwards of 1000 casualties a day: up to 500 kia, the rest wounded. If true, things are much, much worse for Ukraine and explains the Ukrainian conscription of women and emptying prisons for man power.
Chris Chuba says
It’s funny how the U.S. MSM celebrity Generals mock Russian territorial gains because ‘it was too slow’ but swoon over the most minor Ukrainian advances. According to them, the ‘million man army’ is part of a grand offensive in the south to take Kherson. It’s simple, Russia is not going to disrupt their offensive in the Donbas to chase some meaningless town on the other side of the country.
As long as we see Russia taking the fight to Ukraine, it means that Russia has the initiative. If Russia abandons an offensive to react to a Ukrainian advance, that would be proof that Ukraine now has the initiative (they don’t).
Amazing over at the Colonel’s site where they’ve gone full on NeoCon Russophobe and are now censoring information that doesn’t come out of the Kagan family. Oh, the irony….
Earlier today on during the Himars post I tried to drop in Colonel Reisner’s latest update as a balance to IWS’ blather but of course it wasn’t posted. It’s amateur hour over there.
Harry Hobbes says
Not publishing third-party sources that do not support the Colonel’s narrative de jour is a common practice going back at least six months. For example, comment referrals to “independent” viewpoints such as from M. K. BHADRAKUMAR go unposted. Apparently, other narratives “don’t fit” the Colonel’s policy.
That’s true but it has become far worse in the past couple of weeks as they’ve thrashed around looking for ways to avoid the any notion that Ukraine is being demilitarized bit by bloody bit.
Today the Ukrainians tell us that Russia is emptying its prisons for front line service, clearly a cover story for Zelensky releasing a Nazi group jailed for murdering, raping and torturing Russian speaking Ukrainians in Donbas. That such widespread actions over the last 8 years gave Russia the legal cover to intervene isn’t even being mentioned anywhere, not even among those opposing US expansionism.
Bill Wade says
Only 999,993 left to recruit.
This all seems to be on the level.
So we need one million new weapons, ten rounds each (should be enough to push Russian out). More helmets from zee Germans, oh and some (1,000,000) cammo uniforms in the new Slavic digital cammo that can only be made in my uncles factory!
What about transport John? Good point Paul, they can’t walk to Moscow! APC’s any good? Nah will take too long (EU can’t make up their minds on the correct colour) what about G wagons then? Mmm a nice ride but not the old used Canadian ones, I’m told they all smell of Poutine!
This is getting to be a long list and a MILLION of each!
George, just go and tell Ursula to send another blank cheque and we will fill it in and send back the receipts.
Now we come to the big one…A one million man Army needs one million wages paid to somewhere!
Ringo get on it with Washington.
See if we can use that same company that set up the Afghan National Army Pipe and Drums Corp, Bagpipe training program (Miami).
Eric Newhill says
Yep. I can’t help but think that it’s all a scam to get more money to pass around – some of it coming back to “The Big Guy”