Many leaders in the West now are pushing the propaganda theme of an inevitable stalemate in the Ukraine war. In other words, Ukraine will fight Russia to a stand still. Well, that’s the delusional hope. Don’t take my word for it. Peruse these recent headlines:
America Must Plan for a Stalemate in Ukraine (New York Magazine)
Ukraine trying to end battlefield stalemate in what may be … (AP News)
Opinion | Ukraine must seize opportunity from Wagner … (The Washington Post)
Truce or a bloody stalemate? It all rides on Ukraine’s spring … (The Guardian)
What planet do these folks inhabit? A stalemate means that each side — i.e., Ukraine and Russia — are equally matched and enjoy no tactical or strategic advantage over the other. That is simply not the case with the “Special Military Operation” underway. Remember how Russia was running out of missiles? Western think tanks and pundits have been repeating that mantra since April of 2022. But the worm is turning:
According to a recent CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) article, Russia’s relentless campaign of strikes in 2023 has made one thing abundantly clear — the notion that Russia would eventually exhaust its missile supply is unrealistic. Despite facing sanctions and export controls, it is highly probable that Russia will continue to manufacture or acquire the necessary long-range strike capabilities to inflict significant damage on Ukraine
https://t.me/Zornkrieger/40193
Russia also enjoys a massive advantage in tanks, artillery, artillery shells, combat aircraft, helicopters, armored vehicles, mobile artillery, electronic warfare, ships, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles. Oh yeah, almost forgot — Russia also has at least a ten to one advantage in manpower compared to Ukraine.
That is not all. Russia’s military installations for training new recruits are intact and operating 24/7. Ukraine, on the other hand, is forcibly conscripting new “troops” and they are being sent to other countries and subjected to shortened training programs. Russia’s economy is strong and its industrial base is the largest in the world except for China. In other words, Russia can produce everything it needs to sustain its combat operations in Ukraine.
Ukraine, by contrast, is totally dependent on the largesse of the United States and NATO countries. Without the Western money and continuing supply of weapons, Ukraine cannot sustain combat operations for more than two weeks. How is that a stalemate?
NATO is in the same position as Captain Smith of the Titanic after it was pummeled by the ice berg. They are trying to keep a sinking ship afloat but the structural damage is too severe. Desperation is setting in and there are disturbing signs that Ukraine is going to try to manufacture a nuclear incident at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant that it hopes will create a predicate for activation of NATO’s article 5 and bring NATO troops into the battle:
A special aircraft WC-135R Constant Phoenix of the US Air Force was deployed on June 30 to the Chania airbase in Crete. It is from this base that RQ-4B Global Hawk reconnaissance UAVs and RC-135W Rivet Joint aircraft fly to the Black Sea region.
WC-135R is designed to collect information about radioactive radiation and control nuclear tests.
The rarest visit of a special board may be connected with the preparation of a nuclear catastrophe by Kiev at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.
While I do not dismiss the Ukrainian threat to create a nuclear disaster, I believe that Russia has taken the necessary steps to shore up the defenses at Zaprorozhye. The upcoming meeting of NATO in Vilnius (July 12 and 13) will be rancorous. Poland continues to carp at Germany about paying reparations. France is burning and political turmoil is building. And Turkey is furious with Sweden over the recent desecration of the Koran while Swedish police stood by and did nothing. NATO is far from united and there is no evidence of a growing consensus to give more money and weapons to Ukraine. Hungary, for example, is calling for a halt in sending anything else to Ukraine.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban dug in his heels over crucial European Union aid to Ukraine, offering sympathy for his neighbor but nothing more to help it fight off Russia’s invasion.
Speaking in a Bloomberg interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, Orban argued that Ukraine’s military effort is doomed and sending further aid will only lead to more deaths.
“Emotionally it’s tragic, all of our hearts are with the Ukrainians,” Orban, 59, told Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait on Tuesday. “But I’m talking as a politician who should save lives.”
“There’s no chance to win this war,” he added.
I do not see a plausible case for stalemate. But a Ukrainian debacle is a more likely outcome.
You do realise, as Simplicius76 pointed out recently, that the myths vomited out by the Westernaganda will be uncritically swallowed by the blueyellow ragwagging Ukranazi supporters? They still think Ukranazistan holds on to Artëmovsk and that Russia is running out of soldiers. If they’re told to believe Ukranazistan is at the gates of Crimea, that is what they’ll believe. They have a cult obligation to do it.
What is the importance of having already brainwashed populations to be brainwashed even more? Is this relevant to the number of missiles, bombs and other munitions being poured on the Ukraine everyday? In fact, the more Ukrainians fanatically believe in their victory, the more prone they will be to commit fatal errors in judgement and be defeated. As for Western populations, their state of mind is totally irrelevant, even if they were 99% pro-Ukraine – which they are not…
Mark Twain was wise when he said you can fool some of the people all the time, all the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all the people all the time. Even among the population of USA, there exist some people who are not brain dead morons and will not believe what the government media tells them.
What the government-controlled mainstream media complex is doing is working overtime trying really hard and flailing about, trying to prevent at least a few of the brainwashed people from learning the truth and waking up. And some people are actually waking up, I see more people today who understand that the US govt is committing atrocities and terrorist acts today than even a few years ago.
Abe Lincoln said that.
The question is not what they believe – although most are ready to believe whatever their gov-ts tell them to – but what are they going TO DO about it? The answer is… unfortunately nothing.
The question is what did Prigozhin tell you to belive?
Beliefs vs bullets on the battlefield…
That’s the key word — CULT. For that is all these WOKE-ass, war-loving cowards are. They’re like the brain dead vegetable in the WH and his used-Tampon of a “VP” — without being told what to think and where to stand. . . NOTHING.
Westernaganda .. not bad, perhaps one too many syllables from perfection. Propaganda has 4 syllables, hence …
Ukroganga
Angloganda
NATOganda
Euroganda
People in the US will continue to believe
Russia is inept, until American soldiers come home in bags or missiles drop in the mainland. I am 105% confident a conventional missile destroying an ICBM site in Wyoming would go unreported by media.
The Jim Acosta Paula Reid BS shows would report Moscow is under attack by irate Russian coffee drinkers instead.
Agree. I think many thing are happening here that aren’t being “reported.”
This may be a society of sleepwalkers, but there’s still enough of us to make a difference should things go further sidewise,so to speak.
CIII
Are these people really THAT far gone? (courtesy of Simplicius76)
FLORESBERG – “Trees” : The New York Times uncovers the reason for the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive:
“Hiding behind trees certainly stretches any interpretation of the rules of war, of fair engagement, beyond anything we’ve seen before”, said retired US Commander General Benjamin Hodges.”
That part was “tongue-in-cheek”. 🙂
The NYT article is here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/28/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-obstacles.html
but it doesn’t quote Hodges. The link on Simplicius is dead, and as usual he provides no date for the article.
I just yesterday saw a video of an “American pilot” ( I can’t believe that he is really a military pilot) explaining how F16 will defeat Su57 in Ukraine.
As a aerospace engineer I got shock by the idiocy of his statement.
Let aside the su57, that it’s superior to the F16 in everything.
In Ukraine, full of Russian ground radars, Russian air defences, without secure airfields, and in small numbers the F16 will be shotted down even by Su27 without much problem. You don’t need su35 let alone su57
But most of the comments were like, oh yeah, f16 is going to teach the ruzzkies a lesson…
I am European and here the things are the same, people believing any idiocy about Russia, with the different factor being many people here worry about the economy because the economy is sinking hard
It’s the wunderwaffe brainwashing machine doing yet another cycle. Anyone with basic knowledge about tanks knew what would happen to German cats, not to mention Bradleys (that have a movie about how bad they are). The sad thing is, that even people that lack basic knowledge about anything should be able to recognize a wunderwaffe pattern repeating many times, and they don’t. They are still celebrating HIMARS and Holy Javelin. Not much talk about Bayraktar, though.
Next wunderwaffe in line cluster bombs, and then ATACMS.
Unfortunately propaganda, and decades of it, works. The European and North Americans are so dumbed down by the government led Deep State MIC nonsense that trillions of dollars from the US and Western treasuries have been stolen by politicians like Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden. It’s all been a money laundering scheme to make money by bankrupting the national banks of each country. Meanwhile Russia has won the weapons technology war, with China and India in pursuit. The West has been too arrogant, too wiling to believe their own nonsense, to realize they were being surpassed, never to regain superiority as Russia and China cooperate militarily and economically. The age of mindless war sponsored by the West is over.
We believe what we want to believe…
I choose to believe what I was programmed to believe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaJVv1bzfTU
UKR is just a US printed money launder mat. They need a diversion as the US currency..which is a ponzi scheme, which needs expanding debt and expanding resource input to survive…. collapses.
it is collapsing. When fiat printed collapses..the bankers take you to the 3 choices:
1] Inflation
2] default
3] war
What is happening right now on the world “stage”?
Who is John Galt?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN6JV2GXyvg
Who is John Galt ?
We are !!!!!!
US problem is indeed John Galt – Atlas did Shrug, look at the result.
Anyone following Austrian School mummery must be reminded it is straight from Britain’s London School of Economics, Prof. von Hayek.
And in typical British fashion they then parade the Prof. Keynes straight from the London School of Economics.
Tweedle Dum and Tweedle Dee anyone?
Or to put it better,
Jack Sprat could eat no Fat,
the Wife could eat no Lean,
So between them both the skinned the Goat
and licked the plate clean.
Talk about the US being invited to a British lunch!
“Talk about the US being invited to a British lunch!”
From 1917 onwards “the United States of America” have invited themselves to a lunch based upon the British and various “others” which will require iterations when it-was-not-me-it-was-my-sister becomes necessary.
Money can only buy what has been produced…
The West; US, NATO & UK, are looking to gain a political advantage any way they can. This stalemate talk is pure blasphemy. The West spouts nothing but continuous propaganda while Russia is devastating Western weapons and NATO trained troops. Some years back there was a common colloquialism that was used often and that applies here. “Bullshit walks and action talks”. NATO has nothing but bullshit in the form of propaganda going for it and Putin knows it.
The politicians in Washington DC will rue the day they referred to Russia as ‘Spain with a gas station’. They have taken an old fashioned military ass kicking from that gas station….. and now they bloviate about a stalemate. It’s beyond absurd…..
I believe we are past the point of elites “will rue the day.”
The spin will continue and Russia is going down. People don’t visit there. Scum like Rachel Maddow, Jim Acosta, Paula Reid will continue to spin the BS. They have big homes and rentals
in the Hamptons to protect. Of course a cruise missile on the south shore would mess that up. That is a gap wedge from
international waters.
RE: “People don’t visit there” – here you are very wrong and probably brainwashed yourself! Have you heard of the “American Village”? NO? It IS real: people from the west – many Americans but also GERMANS! – not only visit but ask to move into Russia for good! And the more the “democratic and all-inclusive west” slides downhill on their well-oiled immoral road, the more people ask about that. You should at least Google it.
How is weather in Kiev?
Even the CIA’s Burns has flipped his gourd, talking to the Brits of “Putin’s fixation with controlling Ukraine”.
No, Mr. Burns – Putin’s fixation is to not have YOU control Ukraine. Estonia not close enough for you?
Not hard to understand, once you’re out of your bubble. Try it sometime.
So is this worse than say the bad information vis a vis the vietnam war prognosis. (Or afghanistan, Iraq, etc.)
I say it’s worse.
Like 1984 worse vs. Catch-22 bad.
Echelon and the EU appear to be close to deciding on a ‘stalemate’ as the war’s near term outcome. They are reaching agreement among themselves. I wonder if they’ll get around to asking the Russians what they think about it.
When they act like this, rather than engage Russia they change their minds and decide on something else.
Because negotiating with Russia is scary.
The stalemate talk is just following a logical progression. IMHO The same thing happened in Germany during the Second World War, after Stalingrad, when victory was clearly out of reach, stalemate was the next the next goal, with the hope that there would be a falling out between the Western allies and the USSR. I guess the NATO stalemate has the same objective, hoping that Russia and China will have a falling out.
BTW: If one compares this SMO with the Great Patriotic War, we are in “Month 18” of both conflicts. By month 18 in the GPW the Soviet Union had the German 6th Army cut off at Stalingrad. When reading about the GPW it seemed interminably long, but we are kind of living through a smaller version of it now… and things are happening very quickly. Within a period of 6 years back then, the world changed completely.
” IMHO The same thing happened in Germany during the Second World War, after Stalingrad, when victory was clearly out of reach, stalemate was the next the next goal”
You assign the jumbled “strategy” to “the Axis”.
That unjumbled was the strategy of the West decided at a meeting of the Imperial General Staff with guests (not Russian) in March 1943 in London since stalemate facilitating levels of mutual destruction was no longer an option since the USSR had defeated the Axis forces at Stalingrad in February 1943.
Hence “Western strategy/victory was out of reach” and hence the purpose and strategies derived there-from became continuing to use the USSR as a tool to weaken “NAZI ” Germany facilitating the conditional surrender agreement reached on or about 4th May 1945 in the Bolzano region between Mr. Wolff representing the SS and Mr. Allen Dulles apparently acting for on behalf no-one, whilst “liberating” as much as possible of Western Europe whilst the USSR was being further “impoverished”.
“there would be a falling out between the Western allies and the USSR.”
The SD in particular always knew that a falling out was not necessary as fundamentally a falling in never occured (no real alliance – mostly opportunities to enhance “US” control over previous competitors facilitating competitors’ complicity in their own weakening) since the SD and German Industries continued to have relations with “The United States of America” through Switzerland throughout the period.
” If one compares this SMO with the Great Patriotic War,”
In the vicinity of “striptease” the wise observe the audience not the stripper as illustrated within Rokossovsky says 1 July 2023 at 23:28
The present attempted strategy of “The United States of America” is a modified dance with other “partners” of their hoped for world-wide divide and rule strategies from 1917 onwards.
“The stalemate talk is just following a logical progression.”
The stalemate talk is a linear analogue predicated on the notion that the audience remains watching the stripper, and the audience remains “The United States of America/NATO”
ergo : MirrorGazers through racist filters/prisms.
The issue is simply that The West must appear to be in control. It is essential to Western myth that it is director rather than producer and scriptwriter more than actor
The West = kayfabe
Clearly the controllers in the collective west are disunited, and are likely at the bargaining / depression stage of grief. But the neocons are probably stuck and immovable from anger. It’s no accident that the neocons are supporting neo-nazis; anyone who breaks ranks is going to cop it. Expect the collective west to look something like Berlin in May 1945.
I already wrote similar thing before reading other comments. They are looking for an off-ramp, because they realized where this highway is going.
Problem is, it’s a toll road and you can’t get off without paying.
…..and the longer you drive, the higher the toll.
Unwilling passengers will pay for that. Obese people can’t rebel, because it would require losing weight first.
the average American fervently believes Ukraine is slaughtering thousands of Russian *ORCS* daily and that France should machine gun all the Muslims
The people that think Ukraine is winning also thinks that if a group of Muslims dropped a nuke the worst thing about it would be the blowback that is critical of all Muslims. You’re confused about who these people are.
am I?
The people that think Ukraine is winning are so diverse, that even themselves are confused about who they are.
That MAY be coming – unconfirmed (aren’t they mostly)reports out of France say the military have given Macron 48 hours to ‘fix’ the riots or they will. The library in Marseilles has been burnt to the ground. Starting to look like the next stage in ‘civilizational’ disintegration
Having visited Marseilles, I can promise you that French civilisation is long gone from that town.
In addition to all the advantages Russia enjoys over Ukraine mentioned in the article one could also note other important items like Russia’s enormous food production capabilities, supplies of doctors, medical services and diesel fuel for the front lines.
Russia has so much diesel fuel for the front lines, that both sides are using it. Same goes for medical services. Some wounded Ukro solider were just left on the battlefield, and eventually picked up by Russians.
There is something floating around the press in U.K. that illuminates much. That Biden has blocked Wallace from NATO job has really thrown Whitehall into a frenzy of despair and Wallace will stand down as MP at next election 2024
Especially after all he did to push Johnson to engage in Ukraine is the wail as if DC owes Wallace. Instead I believe DC is furious that Wallace escalated constantly and pushed DC deeper into this disaster than intended
Much as Blair pushed Bush deeper into Iraq with his messianic twaddle – and faked dossier. Clinton had told Blair to stick close to Bush and Blair went OTT just as Wallace has done acting like Warsaw or Kiev in stoking the fire to bring in US
It is all about British influence over EU through NATO and without vdL at EU as former NATO Defence Minister it would have failed because politicians like Juncker would have aligned with Paris
Tory MPs have also said Mr Wallace was easily the best qualified for the post, not least as he is credited with persuading Boris Johnson to come out so strongly in support of Ukraine when the Russians invaded last year.
One Tory MP said privately yesterday: ‘That was Ben’s doing. He made that call and got Boris on side with it.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12255093/Joe-Biden-blocked-Ben-Wallaces-bid-head-Nato-partly-served-Northern-Ireland.html
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12248783/Head-British-Army-quits-boss-claimed-naval-officer-job.html
Not buying it. Wallace’ IQ is just above room temp. in Centigrade, not Fahrenheit.
Wallace here in action (Vovan and Lexus dynamic duo) :
https://rutube.ru/video/2e3a2631dec32df3a3401f4be4187f8a/?playlist=156005
And then just for laughs Priti Patel :
https://rutube.ru/video/32e3888b8a76b371d0abcfd5c17b0503/?playlist=156021
“Especially after all he did to push Johnson to engage in Ukraine is the wail as if DC owes Wallace.”
“The United States of America” only owes people money which in large part they have no intention of repaying – that was/is the point of fiat currencies.
To “The United States of America” “the other” is a food source and if useful-foolish enough, a human shield.
“The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland” were made aware of that from the Meeting of the Imperial General Staff with invited “guests” of March 1943, but chose to invent the new clothes of “The Special Relationship” which some continue believe exists despite numerous illustrations that it never existed, which further rendered necessary the “British” culture of secrecy.
“It is all about British influence over EU through NATO”
No that is another version of new clothes although not perceived by “real believers/useful fools”.
The EU and NATO were/are Gladio constructs of “The United States of America” where-in from inception “influence” of others were/are an ocassional courtesy to facilitate the wearing of new clothes which are the skins of members of The EU and NATO – to “The United States of America” all others are proxies in so far they have utility.
The “West” seeks to assign a significance to themselves that others do not share whilst recognising that there are variations in the half-lives of those constituting “The West”.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland increasingly have no utility despite the continuing emulations of Mr. Blair’s fealty performances, and hence its role of food source is becoming more attractive.
Is ‘stalemate’ the English term for zugzwang?
No – “Zugzwang” is the situation in chess where you are in a safe position, and any move you make will weaken your position. But in chess, you MUST move on your turn, you cannot skip a turn.
A stalemate can continue forever without either side moving.
Sorry that you didn’t get that I was being ironic. I’ll be more explicit. Ukraine has been in zugzwang for months now, whatever move it makes, it leads to a worse position. There are only two choices from a zugzwang, surrender now or continue until checkmated, hoping that your opponent will blunder and put you in stalemate, which would end the game in an effective draw because your king while not in check in the current position, will be in check with whatever move you make, making any further move impossible. Western journos use terms that they obviously don’t understand. Stalemate is impossible in Ukraine because Russia will always be free to move. Which contributes to effectively make the Ukrainian situation a zugzwang.
Means forced to move, as in likely suicidal.
Greek mythology a little bit south of Odessa, mentioned the worst possible punishment (for Heraclitus I think) is to be forced to do something he would do anyway.
Zeus as in the NATO one-eyed Cyclops, is punishing Ukraine.
Zugzwang in chess is when you MUST ( The game require alternating moves.) and CAN move legally but every option WORSENS your position (without actually resulting in immediate capture of your king). Stalemate is a kind of draw that happens when one side has NO legal moves to make. If the king is NOT in check, but no piece can be moved without PLACING the king in check, then the game ends with a “stalemate draw”.
The stalemate concept is an artifact of chess – when one side cannot move at all in the real world, it is called being conquered.
It would appear that Ukraine/West/United States is in, or is very close to being in Zugzwang. Further assistance from NATO will worsen the situation in Ukraine. All warfare and resistance leads to collapse of one form or another. The best moves involve some kind of capitulation/acceptance of reality.
In a world where everything is visible by satellite, the West still thinks that it is playing poker and that bluffing is viable. The problem is that it’s purpose is transparent and everything is apparent to the rest of the world. On the other hand, Russians are excellent chess players.
Also, Russians don’t bluff.
The Russians are Vulcans?
Stalemate is a ‘draw’. That’s what the West wants since they are now almost admitting they can’t win.
However, a ‘draw’ requires both sides to agree on one, and that is what the West cannot do, as it is, as Sergei Lavrov famously said, not agreement capable.
A draw is code for, ” we’re losing so we want to put it all on ice while we build more weapons, so we can come back and win later”.
Of course the Russians are not going to buy into it.
It’s the American term for “I’m coming out, don’t shoot.”
This is the West’s last chance to prevent embarrassment over its failure to maintain global hegemony. It is being exposed as a paper tiger in Ukraine. The best it can hope for is a stalemate with Russia. The worst case, and the most probable, is a decisive victory over Ukraine by Russian forces in which they destroy every Western (primarilly American) weapon pointed at them, not only exposing the weakness of Western weaponry but of its military industrial capability to maintain and support an industrial war with peer powers. America’s only remaining symblage of power lies in its nuclear deterrent and its carrier battle groups (which themselves are highly exposed to modern hypersonic anti-ship weaponry employed by Russia, China and Iran). Finally, the American dollar and its related global institutions and systems are under serious assault with the emergence of BRICS+. When Ukraine loses decisively (and they will), the fallout from that withing a few years will be the dissolution of NATO, the deindustrialisateion of Europe, the destruction of the US Dollar as a global reserve currency, a signjificant pullback of American military power dispersed throughout the globe (they won’t be able to afford it), the West (esp the Five Eyes Nations) plunged into a ‘woke’ dystopia as their democratic systems are dismantled and replaced by degenerative social powers, and the rise of a truly multi-polar world.
😋 My hearts desire.
😋 My hearts desire.
China is the largest industrial base, that is true.
Russia however is the nearest thing to an autarky on the planet today.
It can not only manufacture the vast bulk of its needs within it’s borders, it does so from it’s own resources mined, refined in its own mills.
It’s come a long way since Soviet times when it needed massive food imports and other materials. It’s a net exporter of practically everything.
China is the largest industrial base, that is true.
It has a larger manufacturing base than EU + US combined
https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/blog/top-10-manufacturing-countries-in-the-world
What USSR had under CPSU was a high-quality Mil-Spec sector and no Consumer goods manufacturing worth its name……….it was a shortage economy under Gosplan which allowed Black Market with Georgians to create “opportunities”
Russia is still deficient in domestic brands and manufacturing which is why it needs foreigners to manufacture cars but not tanks………I am not sure it has LCD capacity but then again neither does Europe or USA and against LG and Samsung and China I am not sure anyone can compete
The USA’s manufacturing number, and I suspect much of the rest of the West’s in your link is the result of re-defining “manufacturing”.
Specifically, the US’ manufacturing sector has morphed into a final assembly sector that assembles mostly foreign sourced components. As the Fed (St. Louis Fed’s FRED chart) bases its manufacturing output numbers on the final product in the NAICS commodity coding system, it obscures the fact that the sectors that created and produce the components are made elsewhere.
So, a car produced in China from Chinese components represents a LOT more Chinese manufacturing than an American car assembled from foreign (mostly Chinese) components represents American manufacturing, but the FRED chart counts them as the same. That’s how the US’ “manufacturing output” keeps climbing while making less stuff.
One look at manufacturing employment numbers and raw commodity inputs exposes the reality. The US’ real manufacturing output is nowhere near 16.8%. I doubt it’s even at India’s levels.
Value-added
Your point is valid when you consider maquiladoras as part of manufacturing chain
Larry here very modestly mentioned demography, which in my opinion is the most important factor in Ukraine’s agony. The West and Ukraine are manipulating the numbers, presenting the incredible data that Ukraine had 41.1 million inhabitants in 2021 (without Crimea). However, even then, the actual number was much lower, because residents who moved from Ukraine before the war after the abolition of the Schengen visa regime in 2017 (people who were not officially deregistered) had to be taken away, then residents who moved to Russia in the same period, also residents of the largest part of Donbas who did not recognize the coup on the Maidan.
Then the war started, millions of people fled from Ukraine to Europe and Russia, to which should be added the area with a pro-Russian population that was liberated by Russia (Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, large cities of the Donbass like Mariupol, Lisichansk and Severodonetsk…). When the colossal Ukrainian losses are added to everything, it is reasonable to say that 18-20 million people live in the area controlled by the Kiev junta. On the opposite side, there are almost 150 million inhabitants of Russia, because, don’t forget, Russia improved its demography by annexing parts of Ukraine and the arrival of refugees. The ratio is 7.5:1 or 15:2 for Russia, where these 15 Russians have a self-sufficient economy, military industry, while two Ukrainians cannot even feed themselves without Western aid.
What is the greatest tragedy of Ukrainians? On the one hand, there are too few Ukrainians to defeat the Russians in some miraculous scenario, with Western weapons. On the other hand, there are too many Ukrainians to be threatened with biological extinction. If there were 5-6 million of them, one of their leaders would be faced with a demographic flood and would certainly be thinking about negotiations. The tragedy of the Ukrainians is that there are more than enough of them to continue the senseless war for the interests of the American neocons. That’s why I doubt there will even be a freeze on the conflict, as there is much talk of the F-16 and long-range missiles as the next “wonder” weapons.
I was in Ukraine in 2011 and 2012 and a significant number of young Ukrainians I met, wanted out. That was before the war. I imagine it accelerated after that.
Ukraine should be a hugely prosperous country. As a neutral country they would be perfectly placed to benefit from their blessed geographical location as the gateway to central Asia. The Chinese would love to put them into the new Silk Road and Russia would be a good neighbour.
All they had to do was sort out the corruption, and the Nazis.
Alas, they were not able to do either.
To be fair to them, they just weren’t equal to fighting the CIA and Nuland etc. and of course some of them actively wanted the coup.
Orban, one of the only eu leaders with courage, is reported as a nazi by the Irish media. Grown men in pubs drinking Guinness throughout my country can’t wait for the mighty gis of the US to storm Russia.
I’m sure the same is happening in your own country maybe without the Guinness.
Moral of my story. Since the explosion of social media, Ireland went from a very balanced, rational environment where people could cut through the bullshit, to now where everyone can’t but believe in the bullshit.
Very depressing to witness this historic catastrophe in real time. My only solution is to bring down the Internet everywhere.
Ask them in the pub, now with Twitter either down or demanding up-front accounts to prevent bot scraping, if they would prefer
a frontal lobotomy or a bottle n front of me.
They have both right now. Choose!
On a very serious note :
https://southfront.org/irelands-hate-speech-laws-censoring-ukraine-truth/
That bill sure takes the biscuit, but far more ominously there reported :
US naval ship activities in Irish waters cause concern for Defence Force officials
Virginia Ann is classified as offshore supply ship but is understood to be capable of advanced subsurface operations such as deployment of deep-sea divers
https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2023/06/02/us-naval-ship-activities-in-irish-waters-cause-concern-for-defence-force-officials/
Be prepared to be NordStreamed, new verb, with no internet, Russia blamed, and hey-ho to NATO.
This problem is universal. It’s a direct result of the current dollar- financed crime syndicate (world order) not only in Ireland but everywhere. Here in Iran, yesterday, I was having a talk with a young person- a local sort of punk with tattoo, well he kept insisting how strong Ukraine is and how they are going to defeat the Russians soon because the US supports them… To be in delusion is what motivates those who think that life becomes exciting and full of opportunities when they’re chasing the dollar.
“My only solution is to bring down the Internet everywhere.”
You are conflating content with facility and hence facilitating dumbing down in emulation of “The United States of America” and the misguided hopes of Mr. Rove in respect of reality including reliance on the evaluation techniques of useful fools; namely Cui bono?
“Grown men in pubs drinking Guinness throughout my country can’t wait for the mighty gis of the US to storm Russia.”
Perhaps the Dial should increase the licensing hours or suggest the population study Mr. Beckett’s Waiting for Godot ?
I cancelled my sub for the Irish Times in May last year when they stopped allowing comments on articles.
I and a few others tried to provide some balance to the IT’s overt propaganda in comments. Purely factual comments exposing the propaganda falsehoods were frequently deleted for “not complying with community standards”, while blatant anti-Russian comments that would satisfy the most tightly defined and restrictive definitions of hate speech were never deleted.
The Irish in Ireland are no longer rebels.
They are total conformists, faithful adherents to whatever current orthodoxy prevails. And when the orthodoxy changes, they will immediately and without question turn to follow the leader in whatever direction he wants.
Are you saying that the English managed to pacify the Irish?
No.
The Irish that stayed in Ireland did it to themselves.
I know little about the area, but I reckon they have been resisting the British Empire for too long to call it quits. Now the rump empire is on it’s last legs, are they like “fuck that, what’s trending on Twitter?” I was expecting some push for the reunification of Ireland.
I lost all my respect for 85% of the Irish electorate back around 2011. In October of 2010 (IIRC), two “Irish” banks which only operated in the UK and under UK rules and oversight, went broke. The Brits had the gall to present the Irish government with a bill for the damages. This bill amounted to about US$ 11,000 for each and every Irish citizen. Really heavy. Ireland should have told Britain to “stuff it”. But they didn’t. Probably the politicians were bought off. In December of that year, the Irish parliament voted to pay the damn bill. This was blackmail, not a proper debt. One or two months later, Ireland had a national election. Exactly one party had the guts to vote against paying the blackmail, and that was Sinn Fein. But Sinn Fein was castigated for a bombing gone wrong many years before, in which 4 innocent people died. Right after the bombing, Sinn Fein apologized for the bombing and outed the perpetrators, but of course the propaganda machinery kept on chugging as if there hadn’t been an apology. Of the 11 million Irish lives, how many have been ruined by this enormous debt? So the (2011 ?) election turned on whether the Irish citizens were okay with British blackmail. Sinn Fein only got 15% of the vote, which means 85% of the voters were (and probably still are) ignorant, deceived, and lack self-respect. I have no hope for the Irish.
Unfortunately, I agree with you.
The conversion of private debts to public debts is a violation of fundamental principles of free markets. The assumption of risk, and bearing the consequences of those risks are essential disciplines for effective functioning of free markets.
But Ireland is not alone. We do not live in a free market society. Nor do we live in a capitalist society, if a free market capitalist society is defined as one in which investors are free to invest, but must bear the personal consequences for poor decisions.
Big Business is not capitalist, and has not been for a very long time. Instead, it is an oligarchic, management aristocracy. None of the employee managers and senior executives of major corporations ever put any of the wealth they extract from their employers at risk. They routinely asset strip the companies and destroy shareholder value while enjoying contracts that reward them no matter how destructive their policies.
the deindustrialisateion of Europe,
Was caused by the EU Commission over two decades………look at the Chemicals Directive REACH for example and how it makes testing of every single chemical in use impose enormous costs……..
https://echa.europa.eu/regulations/reach/understanding-reach
Look at the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive which kills SMEs stone dead
Costs in the EU are elevated way above world prices by Regulation off the scale……….Green is not the only issue. Lots of German businesses have survived because Germany is a laggard in applying EU Law – often taking 10 years to pass EU Law into German Law……….so German business is facing EU Reulations which were passed 10 years ago………in UK legislation was passed very quickly into British Law by Statutory Instrument and that is why UK rebelled against EU long before other countries faced corporate emigration and disinvestment……..
It was Cost Control by Government and Health Insurers pushing Generics that forced pharmaceutical production abroad – now even Generics are foreign owned – Teva of Israel manufacturing in India or China for instance instead of Hoechst or Boehringer
The idiocy of the EC pales in comparison to the sheer brutality, sorry, pragmatism, of the NATO bombing of NordStream, an act of in-your-face industrial terrorism.
This is called free-market for us.
The famous Merkel, “little-steps”, was literally torpedoed.
This has been going on since the 1989 broad daylight murder of Alfred Herrhausen, Deutsche Bank chief who proposed a Reconstruction of the Comecon.
As then Chancellor Kohl wrote, the murder of his best friend was a message.
Ah! The self-destructive REACH directive!
Just prior to its implementation, the EU issued a cost-benefit analysis of it. I have a copy on an old hard drive somewhere, must look it up again).
The quantified benefits were Euro 50,000. Yes, fifty thousand euro.
The costs, tens or hundreds of millions. The assessed benefit was far less than the margin of error/uncertainty in the cost estimate.
A popular backlash in Ukraine against this horrendous and endless war cannot be ruled out.
Influent Ukrainien military and political figures like Zahluzny or Reznikov are clearly stating their growing septicism or concern about the issue of this impossible & tragic conter-offensive. …. A stark contrast to Zelenski’s jingoistic and unhinged “the show must go on” PR narrative.
IMO I think a large majority of Ukrainians now realize that the Russians won’t go away and that they are here to stay whether NATO and the EU like it or not….
Just my 2 cents…
Sarge asks the cook at the field cantine “why is the chow so good?”
Cook nods to the customers – “they are all trained , hardened killers”.
Z looks around , what does he see?
“A popular backlash in Ukraine against this horrendous and endless war cannot be ruled out.”
The beatings will continue until morale improves.
Scott Ritter said that he couldn’t convince his own mother about the real situation in Russia. I saw an interview between Ray Mc Govern and Robert Schoer where it was almost impossible for Mc Govern to convince Schoer what was going on. I myself can’t convince ANY friend what is really happening. People are brainwashed beyond repair in the west.
I’ve noticed the people who are most brainwashed, did a brain dry cleaning long before the SMO.
Even before the Climate Frenzy Rince, or the Big Bang trepanation.
Likely while still in pampers.
Time to find new friends, and Mom will never be Mom.
It’s futile. As they say, never try to teach a pig to sing. It wastes your time and it annoys the pig.
My youngest [Biden is the greatest president in history] sister has my mother totally past the spin cycle with how the evil Russians are murdering children. She hasn’t mentioned babies tossed out of incubators yet, but that’s probably coming.
“Russians are all so mean you can see it in all the TV shows.”
I do my best with the truth. But if you seen the memes with the skinny screeching liberals, that is my sister. Its frustrating. She couldn’t find Ukraine on a map but is a foreign policy expert because Trump is so bad.
It’s common. I hate to say it but 50% of Americans at least- maybe more are hopelessly stupid, stupid and ignorant beyond repair.
I’m thinking if the Russians leveled no more than six key cities in the US not only would the country be on the path to being restored, they’d probably be celebrated for it.
As washing and cleaning has been mentioned you will be pleased to hear that an event is coming that will be a real cleansing. It is staring humans in the face but 99% are distracted with all the ongoing manmade events.
This “Event” puts all else in the shade and when it arrives you will then understand the reason for all the mass insanity.
Funny you should say 50% stupid. In most Western nations the average I.Q. is between 90 and 98 points. Considering that it’s allegedly the age of information and any thing that one needs to know is so easily sourced, it beggars belief how many people must have I.Q. scores below 90 points to drag the average down so low.
But as you hinted statistically at least 50% of the general public must be right down between 50 and 80 points to bring said averages down.
It illustrates that at least half the people one might know, know bugger all about stuff all, or are simply too lazy and or arrogant to learn anything and simply absorb whatever fallacies that are fed to them without question.
IQ of population is not something that can change over night (or over generation), not to mention that it is not something that can be accurately measured. “For modern IQ tests, the raw score is transformed to a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard deviation 15” (a quote from Wikipedia). Average IQ of a group should converge to 100, as the size of group increases. It’s by design. Normal distribution is, well, normal.
Leaving numbers aside, average person is not very smart. Half of population is dumber than that. That wasn’t the problem until recently, when Internet enabled Dunning-Kruger effect to escalate quickly.
I find in Canada that people who successfully resisted the pandemic brainwashing are also much less likely to buy the Ukraine narrative.
There is a strong correlation in the US as well.
Absolutely true.
I’m not sure what the situation here in New Zealand is. Probably the same (non jabbed know WTF is real & what’s not, pretty much) although maybe not as bad . Virtually the ENTIRE country fell in love with Jabcinda when she “saved” us from the PLANdemic/SCAMdemic but the country has become an economic & social basket case since 2020. Even though she said she was resigning, I believe she was pushed & with all the chickens coming home to roost, it’s woken a lot of people up . . . . . at least partially. Note the word ‘PARTIALLY’. Most still believe the vaccine & Ukrainian propaganda.
Oh – the reason that I don’t REALLY know the situation . . . . . I’ve had to stop talking with people !!! I have no intention of spending time in prison for punching people, maybe worse. I’ve tried with family & (mostly ex) friends but IMV the Western world in particular WAS very close to what ex CIA director Bill Casey said would be the measure of the CIAs success – when the entire population believed as true, all the B.S. the CIA fed them through the media. On the bright side, more & more people are waking up & while it wasn’t long ago I was despairing of the young, there are signs amongst them they are not buying the pink hair/cut ya dicks off/propaganda. there is still much work to do on the “Carbon Hoax” front.
Most westerners are totally unaware of the extent to which our media shapes their opinions.
The BBC are still running a TV series about the “Assad Dynasty” which features Syrian soldiers strangling cute puppies as a rites of passage exercise in a football stadium.
But the most powerful propaganda is what they don’t show you. So there’s nothing about Jihadis chopping the heads off Christians.
All the same tricks have been wheeled out over Ukraine, going all the way back to the shady Novichok poisonings.
Most people are prepared to give the government, and their media, the benefit of the doubt.
Having said that, I’m heartened to see the ever increasing cynicism and anger shown in the comments after pro Ukraine MSM articles. Clearly, large swathes of the readerships are no longer on board.
Yup, there is no stalemate, and its only going to get much and much worse as UKR air defenses are depleted.
If and when (its only a question of when) we get to a point that RU airforce can use simple gravity bombs on front line, no amount of manpower will be enough for UKR to survive, and at that point, advances would be enormous even without big arrow offensives…
However, even without simple gravity bombs, if RU massively increases amount of gliding bombs, effects will be very similar, so no, there is no stalemate, there will only be bigger and bigger meat-grinder if conflict continues…
There are reports of Swan’s dropping 1500kg gravity bombs the last few months.
Those are gliding bombs dropped by Ducks (Su-35). Gravity bomb is regular, dumb, wingless one.
Strategic bombers did drop some on Azovstal, back in the day. There are also a couple of older videos of bomb runs from low altitude, and parachutes to slow down their fall in order to give time for plane to GTFO.
Will Ukraine stage a false flag at ZNPP? Perhaps, but they’ve tried to attack it so many times already without success that such an attack would lack credibility.
IMO they are so desperate they may stage an attack at the South Ukraine NPP deep into Ukrainian held territory north west of Kherson. I believe one of Ukraine’s major intelligence bases with staffing including many western experts is nearby.
So a faked Russian strike targeting the South Ukraine NPP might make a better false flag.
Contrast the garbage diet fed to the British population by the Lying Western media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjo7fcTVKyI
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/possible-massive-western-mercenaries-gathering-hit-
Kramatorsk: The almayadeen article exposed the Western mercenaries, – no longer on line.
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/06/29/Russia-Two-generals-up-to-50-officers-killed-in-strike-on-Ukraine-s-Kramatorsk contingents, – no longer on line.
Dear Larry, did you ever hear about the RAND corporation? On the German site Anti-Spiegel they claim that this corporation decides the US strategy, and demands a ramp down because China is more important.
Considering that the US establishment survived such glorious victories like Vietnam and Afghanistan, why not Ukraine?
That description sums it up nicely.
A good introductin to work of RAND is this document form 2019:
Extending Russia
Competing from Advantageous Ground
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
You are probably interested in this one, from 2023:
Avoiding a Long War
U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
The real question to Larry is does he respect RAND. RAND does not control anything, they provide the “academic” cover to feed to the press to support the geopolitical policies (stupid or intelligent) the elite (who own the MICC) implement. The MICC funds RAND – do you think they do not control the output they pay for?
As its been said, “follow the money”
This reminds me so much of the South African Border War. We, SA, defeated the Angolan/Cuban army, also a US proxy war, but in the end we were forced to negotiate for peace and we were made to look like the losers.
RAND Corp., Pentagon stink tank, not to be confused with Ayn Rand or Sen. Rand Paul, here for example :
Avoiding a Long War – U.S. Policy and the Trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PEA2510-1.html
Yet I think of a famous Bushism – while descending AirForce 1 he asked in Berlin, are those Yurpeans?
Since of course anyone from the Bushes knows, Ukraine is in Yurp not Tx, it is a Yurpean problem, send the bill to Yurp, er, Berlin.
Poor Chancellor Scholz must know this, and right on cue the Warsaw Jackals demand WWII reparations, probably before Berlin has no money left at all!
The deployment of all this radiation detection equipment throughout the Ukraine, and now the WC-135R(s) are precursors, signs that a nuclear attack upon the Ukraine is “imminent.” Most likely carried out by the United States to see what nuking a country is like in the 21ST Century. And this time, the United States wants to be able to study it and collect as much information on what a real nuclear attack does to a country.
On the 6TH and 9TH of August 1945, the United States detonated two atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, First, ostensibly to end the war, and two, because they could.
These are the same reasons the United States will use nukes again. To these two reasons add: because there’s a lot of critical civilian infrastructure that needs to be destroyed. Add this other one to the mix: because it’s been nearly 80-years since the last time the United States nuked somebody.
There’s always been that. The concern has always been that if you have nuclear weapons you just have to use them. Or find a reason to.
Shortly after using nukes the first time Japan surrendered. I am thinking the ultimate goal of using nuke(s) in the Ukraine is to achieve the same result — with Russia.
Of course, this could all be yet another psyops. However, as far as psychology goes, once you’ve descended into the realm of the hysterical schoolgirl ugly drunk, pathology means nothing. You can’t fix stupid. At least not with halfway measures. Same thing with not being able to fix crazy either.
I wouldn’t put it pass my country; seeing that it has yet another losing war on their hands (why anybody even cares at this point is beyond me), the United States will turn the table over on the whole Russo/American conflict. Maybe the United States believes Russia will back down. The delusional United States definitely does. Except this time, this Japan, has nukes, too.
So what happens after it all settles out. The west has lost it’s rear and their money is near worthless. Other than increasing Russia’s expense in the SMO, the west has actually lost much more. America would be vindictive in Russia’s shoes. I suspect Russia will be indifferent. The opposite of love isn’t hate it’s indifference.
This could have worked out so very differently if our leadership were adult but I believe that would require an adult population to begin with. It will take us 20-30 years to grow up if it’s even possible.
C’mon . we go to the moon in less than 10 years. The broad daylight murder of JFK did not stop that, but did start the decline to open fascism.
Release all the JFK files now for a start!
Russia sees things differently : from Dr. Sergei Glazyev of the EAEU, EurasianEconomicUnion, on his (Russian) channel : https://t.me/s/glazieview
This German earthquake could lead to a Bismarckian Treaty with Russia ending NATO as Eurasia joins together with Germany (EU), Russia and China. It would end the US as controller of the world.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-far-right-afd-victory-prompts-political-earthquake/a-66036146
That would be the end of the NWO, Rules Based Order. And the US becomes the USA again!
Your observation regarding an “adult population” is spot on. I live in California, and mostly, all I see around me are naive entitled children. It’s pathetic…..
The old Chernobyl radiation sensor net all across Europe still functions well.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/369170067_Uranium_weapons_being_employed_in_Ukraine_have_significantly_increased_Uranium_levels_in_the_air_in_the_UK
This net already picked up the British Depleted Uranium ammo signal from Ukraine, even in London. Prevailing winds still the same.
When Chernobyl exploded, totally different to ZNPP which is right now on cold power down, the worst radiated were the Alps in Austria and Switzerland. Not known if they since set up sensors.
Stages of grief:
1, Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance
Talk about stalemate sounds like something that fits nicely in the “bargaining” phase. I guess it’s an improvement from “Russians are bunch of alcholics running out of missiles and vodka”, aka. denial.
“Stages of grief:
1, Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance”
The above are stages of death not grief.
In stages of death Bargaining never works since previous phases have been wasted on the unproductive self-indulgences of denial and anger, although some of a religious disposition often manage to convince themselves otherwise at least temporarily thereby minimising the depression stage, which tends to be particularly onerous for not wholly convinced exceptionalists such as conscripted soldiers who tend to revert to anger temporarily, until their bodily fluids are no longer within the body but mixed with other excreta.
One of the aspects of “exceptionalism” is that dying is for others including animals as part of a “healthy diet”, who unlike them will not go to “heaven” but to the oven, frying pan or pot to satisfy the diet of exceptionalists, preferably with a little chianti or another accompanying beverage of choice in attempt to assuage the guilt of thank-fuck-it-wasn’t-meness.
“NATO is … trying to keep a sinking ship afloat but the structural damage is too severe.”
Russia is trying to cut the ship in two while keeping each half afloat.
Larry Johnson may have already mentioned this fact in his recent videos, but I would like to reiterate it: it is interesting that in recent months there has been continuous talk almost exclusively about the Wagner group. Almost never a word about the regular units of the Russian army (such as the Spetznaz etc.). Here, it seems to me that among other things, the Wagner group is also used by the Russian MoD as a smokescreen to maintain the utmost confidentiality on regular units. So, a complex combination on several levels of kinetic and informational warfare.
People are generally aware of the impoverishment and deceit of Western MSM but few are aware that it was a systemic attack at the political level and absolutely necessary for globalist and hegemonic interests to continue various destructive agendas in Western democracies. This was an attack ON democracies given that this form of government cannot exist without a free press. Here is a url and the story is still listed:
https://cbc.radio-canada.ca/en/media-centre/trusted-news-charter-fight-disinformation
This is an agreement among major MSM outlets to control information and censor. Note that the Covid and innoculation agendas would not be possible without this control, and we would not be now on the precipice of WW3 without the corruption of realities with which we are now faced.
L.
We should never forget the potential impact of what former UK Prime Minister Harold McMillan called “Events, dear boy”.
Riots in France, perhaps spreading elsewhere in Europe. Some Islamic terrorist tragedy somewhere. A bad harvest driving up the price of food and triggering a massive rush of desperate people from Africa to Europe. Biden caught with his fingers in the cookie jar. Or who knows what else.
It is already clear that much of the population of the West has lost interest in Zelensky’s routine, and would easily be distracted. And without Western support, the Ukraine cannot continue to fight. Keep an eye open for something happening out of left field.
How about this : Talking about coups – Tucker on Twitter :
https://twitter.com/i/status/1673861273401049089
Tucker predicts Gavin Newsom will replace Joe Biden as de facto 2024 Democrat Presidential Nominee, labels him “leader of the coup”
Tucker says Newsom, Biden’s new-found best friend, will be even more ruthless.
That link opened Friday – Twitter is reporting problems – 4th July?
Embedded link :
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2023/06/29/tucker_carlson_who_will_replace_biden_when_he_drops_out_of_the_2024_race.html
You don’t think there is a major surge of people from Africa and West Asia into Europe already ? I suppose you see the US southern border as protected by a wall too !
U.K. alone has taken in 10 million since 2000 and if US had England‘s population density it would need another 2000,000,000 inhabitants
Russian meme: https://t.me/sadzhkim/181
Your face when you worked hard for months preparing three defense lines – and euroukros get belly-up before reaching even the first one.
We in the USA could just declare Victory, dissolve NATO, and bring our troops home from around the world.
OK, the only question is what to do with all those now unemployed execs at Raytheon, et al, and their lobbyist hacks? My lawn needs mowing, Pay $1/hour, and I use the cowhide freely. It would do ‘‘em good!
Many here shake chains about the infantile behavior seen around them.
There is a reason for that .
Patrick Lawrence : “Infantile imperialism.” ‘These are not serious people.’
https://thescrum.substack.com/p/infantile-imperialism?s=r
The US has been subjected to assassinations (JFK …) and 9/11.
Lawrence precisely identifies the effect of 9/11.
Germany also. Not to mention the serial coup’s elsewhere over decades.
Time to dump the international assassination cabal!
Undoubtedly, the next drama that is foreseen in Ukraine is the ZNPP. Which is even hard to believe for rational people but with so much irrationality on the side of Kiev and its allies since February 24, 2022, we should expect everything now that AFU is practically finished. With the same script as the dam. And just remember that the AFU also spent 2022 trying to take over and bomb the ZNPP. The main reason for the dam explosion as today its much easier to cross the Dnieper, the main obstacle in 2022. Another equal part of the script is trying to blame Russia. With lies that Russia undermined the ZNPP, promptly denied by the AIEA itself! What IMO, Russia should take advantage of in terms of communication to completely discredit Kiev over the ZNPP!
Meanwhile, Vilnius approaches with the charade of the Copenhagen negotiations in the background. Without Russia and China also refusing the invitation. With the US doing what they do in the South China Sea. Pretending they want to negotiate from the front and preparing war actions or terrorist acts behind the back. Like some tragic accident for humanity in the ZNPP! Now that even the US has already declared the most famous counter-offensive in history to be hopelessly lost! God Save The Quen. And that’s why America has never been more dangerous. With psychopaths without civil or criminal responsibility acting behind the back of the brainless President of Washington’s great Plutocracy!
Victory in Ukraine appears reputationally existential to the US and maybe also to NATO. Decisive defeat seems imminent instead. The main remaining question is what this will make the US do.
If we rearrange the letters in “desperation” we get “a rope ends it.” Suicide or lynching, same result.
The climbdown from “Ukrainian victory” to “stalemate” can be seen as nothing more than narrative management by the “Masters of Discourse”.
Unable to leap the chasm between “victory” and “unconditional surrender” in a single bound, they’re filling it in with “stalemate”. The leap from “stalemate” to “unconditional surrender” is much shorter. More importantly, it buys time to develop an enhanced “China threat” narrative that can be used to obscure their failure in Ukraine.
“My only solution is to bring down the Internet everywhere.”
You are conflating content with facility and hence facilitating dumbing down in emulation of “The United States of America” and the misguided hopes of Mr. Rove in respect of reality including reliance on the evaluation techniques of useful fools; namely Cui bono?
“Grown men in pubs drinking Guinness throughout my country can’t wait for the mighty gis of the US to storm Russia.”
Perhaps the Dial should increase the licensing hours or suggest the population study Mr. Beckett’s Waiting for Godot ?
It’s not a stalemate and there will not be any.
Russia has already lost, which I suspected but only became convinced after reading Chris Christie’s recently articulated iron-clad argument.
Before this I was hoping he would be named Health Czar in the next administration given his potential to lead by force of personal example. Now I am convinced he is presidential material.
His argument is the kind of revelation that makes you slap your forehead and exclaim: “Of course! Why didn’t I think of that?!”
It goes: The speed with which Prigozhin’s thingy (not his word) terminated proves that Putin is weak. Genius!
But we must continue to help Ukraine against Russia because that helps us block China’s hegemonic ambitions.
Everything Putin does makes him look weak to the west. 🙂
July, decisive time for Nato.
July 5, the Swedish primeminister,
Kristersson visits Biden, but why.
July 13, Biden visits Finland, same
day the Nordic nation’s summit in
Helsinki, before the Nato summit in
Vilnius.
What about the Kiev offensive, Turkey’s refusal to let Sweden into
Nato, maybe a new gen. sec. after
Stoltenberg. Questions in need of
answers.
I would like to propose myself to be the next General Secretary of NATO.
Your support would be appreciated.
Thank you.
I agree with Larry, but a few points to consider:
1. Territorial gains by Russia have been hard fought and a slow grind thus far
2. Russia does not want to lose people. It is minimising causalities and has been using Wagner and Donbas militias to take the brunt of losses.
3. The Ukrainian forces have been well-dug in, and though NATO may have vastly over-estimated its own Wunderwaffens, it would be a serious mistake to underestimate an Empire that has ruled much of the world in one form or another for the past few centuries. They did not succeed because they lacked cunning, ruthlessness or stomach.
4. Over-estimating Russia risks creating impatience and despair. Yes, Russia did defeat Napoleon and Hitler, but at a tremendous cost to itself. There is no cakewalk ahead.
5. Yes, the US will fight to the last Ukrainian. After that they have the Poles being readied. Could it be the next phase of this proxy-war will be fought from Poland coinciding with the arrival of F-16’s?
Hey, let’s look on the bright side. At least the western media are no longer talking about Ukraine’s army marching into Moscow and removing Vladimir Putin from office. A stalemate is slightly (though only slightly) more realistic.
Prigozhin episode showed them that not even Russians can march into Moscow.
The more West tries to remove Putin, the higher his approval rate is. The only way to lower his rating, is to negotiate with him.
Larry, you’ve convinced me. Ukraine won’t last a week if Russia invades — oh, wait!
Leave aside your risible claims about Russian military might — tell us your scenario for a Russian victory — which of necessarily means the total conquest of Ukraine. How and when does it happen?
Ukrainians know full well the brutality of the Russians and their henchmen. Do you really believe they’ll roll over? How do you get them to stop fighting? On the other hand, nearly a million men of military age fled Russia when the first “partial mobilization” was announced. There IS NO WILL TO FIGHT for Russian conquest.
“brutality of the Russians”…Oh, my. Now I’m truly mortified.
As opposed to the kindness of Ukraine and even the US and its allies at war, or even just trying to terrorize their citizens into acceptance of coup d’etats by slaughtering a few thousand here and there? How dare they have thought they had a voice. Right, bucko?
Well, they may be brutal, those Russkies but at least they don’t post videos of torturing and killing their POWS, or run torture camps around the world, oh sorry, ‘enhanced interrogation camps’, like some, or just shoot a random farmer a day just, oh – just to make your bones, you know.
Try again, bucko. First post fell flat. And BTW: You have NO idea what brutal is.
My post fell flat? Oh my! Well, I am grateful that someone as perspicacious as you, sheeple, has reached out to me.
But, instead of keying on my characterization of the Russians as “brutal” (which they indeed are), why don’t you offer a rebuttal to my point — to wit, how does Russia win this war? Give us your timeline and tell us how it will all unfold.
Surely you can speak for Larry, right?
I let the readers speak for themselves. I don’t engage mindless trolls.
Your trolling attempt is so pathetic that almost no one bothered answering. This is not Twitter. If you can’t put an effort, you should not bother posting.
Larry, While I 100% agree with your assessment and conclusions, I disagree with your set up. The West argues because (on paper), the west and Russia are equally matched and thus can demand a stalemate. Poland’s militarization (and planned occupation of western Ukraine) could be the next NATO negotiating tactic.
This reasoning is highly flawed for numerous reasons that have been presented on your blog; however, NATO looks very strong on paper as long as you do not consider logistics, readiness, A2AD, hypersonic missiles, experience, de-industrialization, long covid, dysfunctional supply chains, incapacity to produce medicines, dysfunctional health care, lack of cohesiveness, fiat currency based on nada, inflation to hyper-inflation, lack of allies, lack of resource access, Egads – the list is unending!
As MP said,”Well, apart from medicine, irrigation, health, roads, cheese and education, baths and the Circus Maximus, what have the Romans ever done for us?”
DISCLAIMER:
When you engage in occasionally posting satire there are two risks: some readers take the spoof at face value and become indignant and conversely, when you post something in all seriousness other readers expect you are again spoofing. To prevent any misunderstanding, the following is my sincere opinion.
Orban is obvously the stone in the shoe of EU and NATO, the rebel who must be subdued somehow so that the two bodies can take “unanimous” decisions on everything from Immigration cuotas to be imposed on countries in the EU to anything and everything pertaining to the war on Russia— sanctions, weapons and funds to be sent to Ukraine, etc.
What I think the US and the entire “collective West” leadership singing from the US State Dept hymn book ignore is that their problem is not just Orban but the entire Hungarian nation. Orban is not a “singularity,” but a true representative of his nation.
The US is infamously famous for being ignorant of history. Perhaps only the Russians of a certain age really remember Hungary of 1956. No other SU satellite country ever revolted as the Hungarian did in 1956 or shed as much blood (thousands died and hundreds of thousands fled the country) trying to overturn the Soviet-imposed communist regime. Cardinal Mindszenty, also a supporter of the revolutionaries, took refuge in the US Consulate after the revolt was crushed and he lived there for the next 15 years!
In no other country did the Prime Minister courageously acted patriotically and joined the revolt as Imre Nagy did.
Yes, 12 years later the SU sent tanks into Czechoslovakia to quell their well-mannered revolt but all they had to do was to show them the tanks to pacify them and bring them back into the fold. In Hungary nothing less than a horrendous blood bath was enough to crush the revolt. The Soviets were truly astounded and I daresay intimidated by the Magyar spirit, so much so that they did not dare to execute Imre Nagy in Hungary and instead secretly transpoirted him into reliable “sister socialist country,“ Romania, and executed him in Bucharest.
After “pacification” the Soviets understood that Hungary had to be given leeway of the sort no other satellites enjoyed: among others, private property allowed as well as small business ownership. Even inventors were allowed to keep a part of the earnings generated by the commercialization of their invention: it is how Rubik became the anomaly of being a millionaire in a communist country due to his “cube.”
It was a Hungarian spring but in silence.
The Magyar spirit is indomitable. The effect of the Western propaganda against Orban is the same as that practiced against Putin: it only increases his popularity and support at home.
And let’s not forget that once again the good old CIA promoted and instigated that uprising and the Hungarians believed them when they were told “we will be right beside you.”
“1956
Hungary — “Radio Free Europe” (a CIA propaganda front radio) incites Hungary to revolt by broadcasting Khruschev’s Secret Speech, in which he denounced Stalin. It also hints that American aid will help the Hungarians fight. This aid fails to materialize as Hungarians launch a doomed armed revolt, which only invites a major Soviet invasion. The conflict kills thousands of Soviets and Hungarians.”
You described the events perfectly ! We Hungarians will never forgive the USA’s lies ! The Hungarian freedom struggle had already failed, the blood of young people was already flowing in streams on the streets of Budapest, but the US / CIA funded Radio Free Europe still encouraged resistance ! Just as they want to send the last Ukrainian youth to certain death!
I would like to tell you, never trust the USA because it will betray you, they are only interested in profit, let’s remember the last pictures from Saigon, when the cooperating South Vietnamese hung desperately from the Huey helicopters and fell to their deaths ! Many of us still had the shame burned into our retinas as the miserable Afghans fell to their deaths from the C-17 fleeing the Afghan airport. They believed, they believed that their powerful ally would save them from the fact that the Taliban would kill them for their betrayal. I see that Hollywood is already making the washed-up movies (Kandahar with Russell Crowe) where the “hero” American goes back and rescues the unfortunate Afghan interpreter who stupidly believed them ! Are there really any idiots who believe this?
Well Larry, I’m very curious to know if you’re reporting this not-so-favorable comment!
My father was one of the heroes of 1956, he was thrown into prison, but since he was a well-known athlete and the Russian commander of the local airport also knew him well, he considered him his friend, so he freed him from captivity, he claimed that it was a misunderstanding, that’s why, in retrospect he probably paid with his life so that my father could escape to the west. “Should I hate the Russian people?” At the age of three, my mother and I were able to “enjoy” the harassment of the communist police and the house searches every night for one more year. Growing up, I was banned from all secondary and higher education institutions. I am very proud of my father that he was brave, that according to Hungarian traditions he bravely stood up for freedom! Now the communists of the European Union and a US ambassador named Pressman want us Hungarians to bend the knee, we don’t bend the knee to anyone, only to God and to our woman when we ask for her hand ! But apparently the unfortunate people do not understand that we are not pussy French and Swedes, that we tremble and hide behind the curtain and watch as thousands of illegal emigrant hordes rage and set fire to Paris and Stockholm, we have built a security fence on our southern borders and we do not allow anyone to enter illegally ! That’s why the “progressive” West would like to punish us, but as long as we can raise our hands to us, someone we don’t let in can’t set foot in !
PS: we don’t want an EU that betrays us and against its people, and we hate those who pretend to be allies, but at the same time think they can turn us into vassals !
God bless your father, mother and you.
From France
I have a lot of admiration for your people and leader . Gatekeepers of the original western values.
AMX-10RC – The Ukrainian military
https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2023-07/thumbs/964a87c29e1967d173530f375530219f_jpg.webp
@Larry. Here is my take on the Cook Prigozhin.
There was by all appearances an armed RF rebellion. Within 24hours resolved with amnesty, and much more Wagner work to do on other fronts.
Now, there is Western “Virtue Signalling”, and real Eastern Virtue.
So, who needs urgently an armed mutiny – why none other than poor doomed Ukraine.
Russia signaled how they would handle it, ok?
In 1943 (I think) von Stauffenberg tried that, and made one fatal mistake informing Churchill (in diaries declassified in 2000’s).
Ok, today the Brits are all over Kiev, social media is bot-scraped (Twitter is blocking right now).
UAF Gen. Zhaluzhny studied under RF Gen. Gerasimov, brothers, as they all are.
This will be Maskirovka on steroids!
If I were Putin (I’m not, fortunately for Zelensky.) I would I would concentrate my forces into a massive tidal wave and take care of that irritating problem permanently. Oh, sure, many civilians would suffer, but think about how many Ukrainian and Russian innocent people Fuhrer Zelensky and his “stormtroopers” have murdered and maimed.
One can not concentrate forces in times of satellites & drones & stuff. This conflict is redefining how wars are fought. You need to update your doctrine.
1. For 30 years the Russian position has been crystal clear…
No Ukraine in NATO. No NATO in Ukraine.
2. The current Ukrainian leadership has made clear their intent to join NATO as soon as possible. For the last 6 months or so, many Western politicians in NATO countries have been expressing the position that…
As soon as the war is over, Ukraine is in NATO (and probably EU).
3. Russia (and much of the rest of the world) have come to the conclusion that the West is agreement-incapable. So, even if the West were to change their toon and agree to some kind of “binding” legal framework prohibiting Ukraine in NATO or NATO in Ukraine (or any arming of Ukraine), why would/how could the Russians believe it. Therefore…
A change of heart on the part of either the West or Ukraine has become, at this point, irrelevant.
4. Given these facts, and the realities you describe, there is basically only one option going forward for the Russians…
When the war ends, Ukraine cannot exist as an independent country.
I don’t believe that this was the goal of the SMO, but the stated positions from Ukraine and its Western backers have created a situation where any other outcome would result in a virulently anti-Russian government on Russia’s border with the intent that it become a member of NATO at the first possible opportunity. The Russians cannot (and, I think, will not) accept any such outcome (see #1).
People talk about a rump state, a large buffer zone, etc. But any of these still leave some independent geography large enough to park NATO missiles on and, in all likelihood, run by rabid anti-Russian leaders under the direct control of neocons.
Therefore, we are left with option 4. This makes for a much longer war. The outcome will be the same. Only the damage done will be greater.
Note: It is possible that some amount of backroom negotiations could result in a partitioning scheme, returning some historically/culturally related lands to other neighbors to the West and South (and maybe some to Belarus in the North). But the countries to the West and South are NATO and EU countries. Unless NATO ceases to exist as the result of this conflict (a nice, but unlikely, thought IMO), it’s hard for me to square the circle of, say, Poland annexing the western third more or less and remaining in NATO. Maybe Poland leaves NATO. Maybe NATO turns a blind eye because it moves missiles a few hundred kilometers closer to Russian. Maybe the Russians accept a NATO member Poland on their new borders (allowing for some kind of large, 300-400km, demilitarized zone in between). The main argument for it is that Russia almost certainly wants nothing to do with western Ukraine or its occupants and would be happy to offload the crazies in this area on somebody else. It’s just that there are a lot of moving parts to this kind of partitioning. Not sure how it gets done.
Yah, being also hear repeated claims of a stalemate. One Judging Freedom guest even claimed it. Guess that is something as some recognition that a military victory pushing the Russians out of Ukraine is not possible. Psychologically don’t know where the West will go once they realize there is no stalemate either.
Sorta related, more and more Ukrainian POWs are reporting that their NATO training to turn them into Rambos was utter pathetic. Literally no time at the range learning basic arms with most of the time in psychological brainwashing that the Russians were Satan’s minions. One French trained POW said the trainers could not even show them how to properly apply a tourniquet. Sort of an ironic turn-around. Since the SMO started, the West has claimed that Russian military training was woefully inadequate and the recruits were basically alcoholics.
(BTW, under reforms to the sale of alcohol some 16 years ago has resulted in Russians drinking less per capita than Western Europeans.
Russians consume less alcohol than French or Italians — WHO
Alcohol consumption in the Russian Federation has decreased by 40% over 15 years, Director of the Regional Office for Europe of the World Health Organization Hans Kluge said
https://tass.com/society/1298011)
NATO training was a myth, as much as NATO equipment. They were never meant to be used against competent opponent.
People drink in order to get away from their shitty life. In last 15 years there have been significant changes in quality of life.
After the fall of Soviet Union, all remaining countries had significant increase in suicide rates. I’m not Baba Vanga, but I could predict decrease in suicide rates for Russia and Belarus. For Baltic countries, not so much.
Ukraine has been a debacle since 2014.
You are off by a couple of decades.
After the end of the Soviet Union in 1991 the new states had difficulties with internal battles over money and power. There were significant ethnic Russian minorities in many and their influence, and to a lesser extent Russia’s influence, remained strong.
In Ukraine, and elsewhere, the US exploited the situation.
Russia, Ukraine and some other states entered a border protection agreement in 1994 which became untenable between Ukraine and Russia with the escalation of the civil war in Ukraine in 2014.
Poroschenko revoked the treaty with Russian Federation back in 2015 or earlier
The Russians went through three armies already according to McGregor. The army is not the problem. The problem is the NATO experts, trainers, and contractors that run the $200 billion dollar weapons and mercenary rat line. Given the GNP of the Ukraine, every one occupying every hotel and school in Lviv (along with all the Poles), and Kiev. The Russ nationalists might ask, “Why not hit the NATO trainers, advisors, weapon-salesmen? Why is the government still functioning? Where does the money come in?” Bottom line, I don’t think Russ can win this war by killing off another army, and it sounds like the Ukrainians are going defensive and get cluster bombs which would be effective against an offensive. A lesson for Putin in that he did not allow them against their offensive. Right now Putin doesn’t scare anyone in Greater Britain or Washington, so things are going to get scary. I always wonder at the similarity of a thermobaric bomb to a nuclear, and get worry about where we might be going. People are clueless. “Did the mutiny work? Is Putin still in power?”
“… cluster bombs which would be effective against an offensive …”
Don’t fall for the media BS. They are pushing cluster bombs as new wunderwaffe, because they have nothing left in their storage.
“,,, always wonder at the similarity of a thermobaric bomb to a nuclear, …”
Nothing is similar to nuclear bomb. Russians use thermobarics all the time (mostly TOS-1A). Really big thermobaric bombs are impractical, and unnecessary for the most part. Russians could have dropped FOAB on Azovstal, but did not.
“… cluster bombs which would be effective against an offensive …”
Don’t fall for the media BS. They are pushing cluster bombs as new wunderwaffe, because they have nothing left in their storage.
“,,, always wonder at the similarity of a thermobaric bomb to a nuclear, …”
Nothing is similar to nuclear bomb. Russians use thermobarics all the time (mostly TOS-1A). Really big thermobaric bombs are impractical, and unnecessary for the most part. Russians could have dropped FOAB on Azovstal, but did not.
Some good news:
We got through that giant NATO air exercise in Europe in June (Air Defender 2023) without a blowup.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_215611.htm
F-16’s are a baby’s pacifier toy for the Ukrainians. Nothing more, unless they actually arrive. What can they do against an S-500, 400 or even 300?
Who even thought this clean out the F-16 hangers & make room for the new…..Lockheed execs?
You can’t do much flying with these fuel prices. 🙂
Leave it to Larry Johnson to cut through the corrupt CNN and delusional American “news” media propaganda to give his readers the hard facts and reality-based analysis. Was glad to read there is at least one politician left in the world (Victor Orban) who wants to pull the plug on the Ukrainian Slaughterhouse and finally put an end to this madness and suffering. As we can expect little to nothing good from the delusional warmongering politicians in Washington, D.C., I hope Mr. Orban will resolve and take it upon himself to use whatever influence he has to do just that.
Plus, Wagner 2.0* is only 200 miles from Kiev.
* Wagnerites in Russian Military uniforms now.
They are close to Minsk too. Between them and Kiev there are minefields. Between them and Minsk, there are none.
I also date Canada losing any ability to think and act separately from USA to the explosion of social media. I think that large numbers of immigrants from very different cultures also has played a part. One can not now even imagine Canada refusing to join invasion of Iraq – never mind Vietnam and welcoming draft dodgers and deserters into the country.
Sometimes I wish for a major sun storm that would wipe out electronics on earth for a few years. Except then I think of the millions of people who would suffer and die if it happened.
This commotion in France may underscore why Putin has acted as he has. Basically, France is holding on by its fingernails. How many non-elites in France now care about whether Russia now reaches the East Bank of the Dneiper by year’s end
England has the same Muslim menace, except with the Pakistanis How could any sane nation invite in a group that harbors THREE separate reasons to hate their new homeland. First, they’re Muslims, who regard all non Muslims as people who willfully spit in the face of Allah. Second, Pakis were colonized by England .. who then handed over control of the Indian subcontinent to the ancient enemy of these Muslims, the Hindus. So, this group just might take a cue from France and erupt as well
And then there’s Germany. How many non elites think that it was necessary to destroy the German economy in order to teach Russia a lesson about the “Rules Based International Order” .. which apparently doesnt cover the greatest act of industrial terrorism ever. How many will be glad to spend a SECOND winter freezing in their homes for the sake of Ukraine
The point is, NATO may be on the verge of breaking up. Maybe Putin’s goal is to make it happen without causing the West to go berzerk and resort to nukes
Not a fan at ALL regarding the idea of Sweden joining NATO. They sacrificed NOTHING during both World Wars. However, burning a koran earns them high attribution as far as me and about a billion other people are concerned. So Turkey can go pound *traveler* sand on that topic.
Up till now, Russia didn’t invade Ukraine! At the time SMO started the Donbass region was already Russian territory. Ok, the thrust against Kiev was. But only for a short period of time.
Former Soviet Republic of Ukraine never had full sovereignty over it’s territory, and in 2014 it lost whatever it had. From that point, it became free-for-all. Russians re-entering Russian lands is anything but invasion.