Remember when UK Defense sources were predicting Russia would be finished in 14 days? This was back on March 23:
Russian forces may only be able to sustain full fighting capacity for another ‘ten to 14’ days, senior UK defence sources indicated last night, after which Putin’s men will struggle to hold the ground they have already captured from Ukrainian troops.
UK defence sources say that Kyiv has Moscow ‘on the run’ and the Russian army could be just two weeks from ‘culmination point’ – after which ‘the strength of Ukraine’s resistance should become greater than Russia’s attacking force.’ Advances across Ukraine have already stopped as Moscow’s manpower runs short.
Looks like General Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did not get the memo. He told the House of Representatives a different story this week:
“It’s a bit early, still. Even though we’re a month-plus into the war, there is much of the ground war left in Ukraine,” he added. “But I do think this is a very protracted conflict, and I think it’s at least measured in years. I don’t know about a decade, but at least years for sure.
In other words, no one knows how long. I admit I was not a good prophet. I was overly optimistic at the outset. I assumed that Russia launched its “special operation” with more troops then it actually did. So, I have been wrong too. Took me a bit to see that Russia’s plan was not to proceed conventionally by occupying cities. I finally listened to Putin’s words and accepted his view that the objective is the demilitarization of Ukraine and the elimination of the Nazi minority that wields too much power over a weak government.
Which brings me to my dog analogy. If you are told there is a ferocious dog in a house and you do not hear any barking, even after you bang on the door, you are faced with a number of possibilities:
- There is no dog.
- The dog is a sound sleeper.
- The dog is not home but will be back soon.
Those in the West are being fed a daily supply of breathless reports about the fierce Ukrainian dog that is savaging the Russians but I do not hear or see any evidence of the big bark. Is there no dog? Are the Ukrainians sleeping? Or are they biding their time? Consider the following:
- Hordes of Western journalists were ushered into Bucha to record the horrors of an alleged Russian atrocity, but I have not seen any of those journalists on the frontlines with the Ukrainians who are actually fighting Russians.
- Russia has hit dozens of airfields, military bases and supply depots with Air Launched Cruise Missiles and other land based hypersonic missiles but the Western reporters are mute.
- Russia has control of most of Mariupol and only reporters embedded with Russia are reporting (and they are doing so from the front).
- The alleged atrocity uncovered in Bucha was not reported until April 2nd, but had supposedly be carried out in the preceding two weeks. Why did U.S. intelligence fail to report on any of this prior to the 2nd? The U.S. has terrific capabilities with overhead satellites to capture action on the ground. It also can intercept Russian military communications, such as orders to execute civilians or cleanse a town. Do you think that General Milley and his press flacks would have hesitated to beat that propaganda drum? That is a dog that did not bark.
- Also worth noting that suburban towns surrounding Kiev reportedly taken back from the Russians did not show mountains of wrecked Russian armor or dead Russians littering the landscape.
- We have seen brutal images of Ukrainian forces murdering Russian captives. It was so bad that even Ukrainian officials had to go on TV to denounce the actions.
It would be one thing to have a news blackout, especially from the Ukrainian side, if the electrical power grids lighting up the country were obliterated. They are not. The lights are still on. The internet is still up and running as well it appears in most parts of the country. If the Ukrainians were stomping the life out of armed and armored Russian units I would expect a tweet or two from non-combatants in the area. But we are hearing none of that.
The destruction of the oil depots around Ukraine by the Russians cannot be ignored. Those attacks mean that Ukraine’s ability to send fuel is severely degraded. If there is fuel, the Ukrainians face the daunting task of trying to haul it to the army now trapped in the Donbas. Russia’s virtual control of the air gives the Russians a decided advantage in being able to destroy resupply columns.
Food, fuel and ammunition for weapons are critical for an army to remain a viable combat force in the field. This is another dog I don’t hear barking. We have seen no evidence that Ukraine has been able to resupply the army bogged down and in danger of being surrounded by the Russians. If the Ukrainians can pull off a resupply miracle then they might have a chance for delaying or even defeating Russia’s intent to secure the region.
But Ukraine has a bigger problem. Russia’s control of the southern coast of Ukraine means no more imports or exports:
Ukraine is one of the world’s top grain exporters, loading container ships that carry 12% of the world’s wheat supply and 16% of its corn.
That business is done for the foreseeable future. And Ukrainian farmers are not headed to the fields to plant. The Ukrainian Army has planted explosive mines in many of them. Truck convoys and railroad cars going to Poland cannot make up for the loss of container ships sailing from Odessa and Mariupol.
Then there is the import side of ledge. Here are Ukraine’s top ten imports:
- Mineral fuels including oil: US$7.8 billion (14.4% of total imports)
- Machinery including computers: $6.1 billion (11.3%)
- Vehicles: $5.5 billion (10.2%)
- Electrical machinery, equipment: $5.4 billion (9.9%)
- Pharmaceuticals: $2.52 billion (4.7%)
- Plastics, plastic articles: $2.48 billion (4.6%)
- Other chemical goods: $1.3 billion (2.5%)
- Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $1.2 billion (2.3%)
- Iron, steel: $1 billion (1.9%)
- Rubber, rubber articles: $927.6 million (1.7%)
The ports are not open for business and Ukraine no longer has a Navy. Therefore Ukraine has no way to dislodge Russia’s stranglehold on its port cities unless NATO decides to intervene. This means nothing short of economic devastation for Ukraine.
Compare Ukraine’s Zelensky’s hysterical pronouncements against the stoic silence from Putin. I have seen no evidence that Putin is panicking. He is not the one begging for Western military intervention without regard to the implications of that request for the very survival of his government. Notwithstanding the heated, belligerent rantings of senile Joe Biden, U.S. and NATO military commanders appear to understand that Russia is dead serious about engaging any Western planes, tanks or troops that dare venture into Ukraine. Crossing that line puts nuclear weapons in play.
General Milley is wrong. This is not going to take years. Ukraine does not have the economic means to survive even if there is a military stalemate in the East. I guess Milley was too busy studying pronouns to take time to consider the economic disaster facing Ukraine. In six months, if he lasts that long, Zelensky won’t be begging for bullets. He will want bread.
Russia should use the water in the seaport to flood these areas. Use massive pumps to push and spray the seawater into these industrial areas until the underground plants are flooded with seawater. Attach seawater to the drainage pipes that lead to the plants and push water into these plants in reverse until the Nazis float out like sewage.
Entertaining idea but not realistic.
Can you give us analysis of Bucha massacre?
I have. It is in an earlier post.
General Milley is wrong but he could very well be stupid. He may not have taken into account that the US policy towards hydrocarbons could change come the USA mid term elections. Congress could over ride any presidential mandates that hinder oil and gas production. An increase in hydrocarbon production would lower the price of oil and cut off the funding for Putins war chest which would probably end the war. Its possible, the west had instigated this war to facilitate regime change. There are no pictures showing any atrocities that the news media claims that Russia committed. Where are the altopsys proving how the people have died? The west seams to want to label Putin a war criminal without any real evidence and they want to do it quickly.
This assumes that Russia needs foreign currency to fund their military. I don’t believe they do. They can just print Rubles to buy equipment and pay soldiers, much like the US has done for the past 50 years.
Your comment assumes that increasing the oil production to meet the US/World demand is like turning on the spigot on water main. Currently even with Russian Oil and Gas supplies there was shortage. If we assume that our Oil companies can produce the shortage of oil and gas not only to cover the current deficit as well as to cover the oil produced by Russians. It seems to be a Hail Mary Pass to no where.
That is why America is desperately trying to bring Iran and Venezuela into the supply side. But both are pro- Russia.
1. I hope that Russia makes a statement showing they want Ukraine to plant and have a wheat crop and say how they support it. The U.S. Neocons are going to blame food shortage on Russia.
Would the Neocons cause a problem just to blame it on Russia? Yes and hell yes.
2. This is a cool blog Larry Johnson, I am impressed by how well formatted it s. How did you figure this out? I looked into posting word formatted documents so that I could share them to my friends on facebook and all I found was wordpress which I found to be inadequate.
Excellent analysis. Thank you for being a voice of sanity and reason as well as presenting a well thought put factual analysis.
The main war may be over faster buta guerilla war particularly in South and war over river water will likely persist
I don’t know why it’s happening but there has been a very recent admission in the MSM that “intelligence” broadcast to the public hasn’t been solid/confirmed or has even been purposefully false. This was admitted with a shrug on NBC yesterday. So what’s happening? Was the disclosure made in error or will more be coming to light? Have too many gamers verified video game footage of purported Ukrainian war victories? Is Elon Musk going to open the floodwalls holding back truth on Tw!tter? Does Milley’s remark that it’s going to be a protracted war (no doubt music to the ears of Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Boeing, Northrup, Raytheon, et al.) belie the heretofore narrative of swift Russian defeat?
While I’ve already expressed my dislike and distrust of Zelenskyy, whose attempts to broaden the war rival a Jerry Lewis Telethon in their pleading, I really haven’t taken a side — I JUST WANT TO KNOW THE TRUTH, which is rarer than some minerals being talked about lately.
Your comment is awaiting moderation.
I have been doing some research on Bucha and the MAXAR satellite pictures have been analyzed looking at weather and sun angles and are not the dates the MSM analysts claim. It is a big false flag operation which surely even our inept intelligence services know. I find it mind boggling that the entire Western Press and intelligence services are lock step in this fraud. To the point where the UN votes to expel Russia from HRC. UK is the worst bad actor here but ours are on board. Why is my question. Not surprised though as it the narrative they have used in the past On the Syrian Gas Attack and Saddam’s WMDs and Serbia and Libya.
You can decide for yourself :
https://english.pravda.ru/world/151028-maxar_bucha/
https://t.me/rybar/30591
https://twitter.com/mr_hornblower?lang=en
This guy sums their motives up nicely:
https://tomluongo.me/2022/04/05/bucha-budapest-multiplying-problems-war-criminals/
Reply
I have been doing some research on Bucha and the MAXAR satellite pictures have been analyzed looking at weather and sun angles and are not the dates the MSM analysts claim. It is a big false flag operation which surely even our inept intelligence services know. I find it mind boggling that the entire Western Press and intelligence services are lock step in this fraud. To the point where the UN votes to expel Russia from HRC. UK is the worst bad actor here but ours are on board. Why is my question. Not surprised though as it the narrative they have used in the past On the Syrian Gas Attack and Saddam’s WMDs and Serbia and Libya.
You can decide for yourself :
https://english.pravda.ru/world/151028-maxar_bucha/
https://t.me/rybar/30591
https://twitter.com/mr_hornblower?lang=en
This guy sums their motives up nicely:
https://tomluongo.me/2022/04/05/bucha-budapest-multiplying-problems-war-criminals/
But I wonder I have not finished reading the article, but I wonder if bucha was intended here instead of Maripol….
“The alleged atrocity uncovered in Mariupol was not reported until April 2nd, but had supposedly be carried out in the preceding two weeks.”
Thank you for catching my error. I have corrected it.
Randi, American energy independence is a pipe dream. Congress doesn’t drill wells. Unconventional new well productivity normalized by horizontal lateral length for has declined since 2016. Legacy conventional oil and gas production produces about 98% water.
Initial decline rates in unconventional wells are enormous in 1st 3 years. Decline rates may be accelerating after that. They can not generate enough internal cash to drill new wells without outside funding. All of the best well locations have been drilled. Permian new wells are almost all 2nd and 3rd rate locations.
If unconventional oil was crucial USA energy independence it would never be exported. Its exported because USA refineries are not engineered to refine. Unconventional oil has to be exported. Also please note that while oil exports were illegal in USA until about 2015, the USA has always exported refined products which are higher value exports that unconventional oil.
The world cannot operate without Russian oil and natural gas. When USA unconventional c-suite types are talking, they are not talking to you. They are talking to Wall Street.
Watch Venezuela. That country has the largest proved conventional oil and gas reserves in the world. China is Venezuela’s largest creditor. Where will the oil go?
Once again, another questionable attack has occurred: I’ve seen several tweets about the serial number of the missile that hit the Kramatorsk train station (killing 52 Ukraine civilians) that say it proves it was a Ukrainian-launched missile, not Russian.
My husband’s default TV channel is MSNBC and it’s war talk, nearly 24/7. I’ve even read leftists’ tweets remarking that “we” (meaning the US) are at war. Why on earth have we provoked a proxy war with Russia, and what’s worse, why does the Biden administration NOT want it to end?
Larry can you do another territory map update and state of war analysis.
Expert in bioweapons just said US has been putting bio labs all around Russia and much of this war crime stuff seems to be to drown that out.
https://m.beforeitsnews.com/eu/2022/04/bioweapons-expert-speaks-out-about-us-biolabs-in-ukraine-2685641.html
Worryingly he also said US under Fauci working on ethnicity specific bioweapons. Are US dark state really that evil?
After what they did to Trump do we even know who is running deep state / US gov?
Check out Southfront.org