Deception is an essential tool for any military or intelligence operation. Prior to the arrival of satellites, manned fixed-wing surveillance aircraft and drones, military planners had an easier time of hiding their troop movements and preparations for offensives. In the 19th Century Generals could use hot air balloons with an observer, planted in a basket dangling below the gas filled orb, peering through a spyglass trying to locate enemy forces and troop movements. This only provided a very limited glimpse of the order of battle and could easily be disrupted by clouds, generated by explosions on the ground or by Mother Nature, that obscured the landscape. The 19th Century Generals also relied heavily on human spies.
During the first half of the 20th Century, technological advances in flight (e.g., fixed-wing aircraft) and electronic communications expanded the ability of military planners to detect enemy activity and locations. But the business of trying to determine what the enemy force was doing was a double-edged sword. A savvy commander, for example, could have the same group of troops march repeatedly through an area under observation to create the impression that his force was much larger. Confederate Generals in the American Civil War, for example, used this tactic several times. That is one form of deception.
The art of deception starts with the assumption that the enemy is collecting intelligence on the size, capability, location and intention of your military forces. Your job, as a master of deception, is to convince your opponent that you are going to take a particular course of action by feeding the enemy information that focuses their attention on the false target and away from the real objective.
One of the most famous examples from World War II was Operation Bodyguard. The Brits get credit for coming up with this deception.
Operation Bodyguard was the code name for a World War II deception strategy employed by the Allied states before the 1944 invasion of northwest Europe. Bodyguard set out an overall stratagem for misleading the Oberkommando der Wehrmacht as to the time and place of the invasion. Planning for Bodyguard was started in 1943 by the London Controlling Section, a department of the war cabinet. They produced a draft strategy, referred to as Plan Jael, which was presented to leaders at the Tehran Conference in late November and, despite skepticism due to the failure of earlier deception strategy, approved on 6 December 1943.
Bodyguard was a strategy under which all deception planners would operate. The overall aim was to lead the Germans to believe that an invasion of northwest Europe would come later than was planned and to expect attacks elsewhere, including the Pas-de-Calais, the Balkans, southern France, Norway and Soviet attacks in Bulgaria and northern Norway. The key part of the strategy was to attempt to hide the amount of troop buildup in Southern England, by developing threats across the European theatre, and to emphasise an Allied focus on major bombing campaigns.
The main stratagem was not an operational approach; instead it set out the overall themes for each subordinate operation to support. Deception planners in England and Cairo developed a number of operational implementations (of which the most significant was Operation Fortitude which developed a threat to Pas-de-Calais).
Operation Fortitude featured General George S. Patton as the head of a fictitious army that was going to land at Pas-de-Calais. This deception included setting up bases in England filled with inflatable tanks, trucks and artillery pieces and massive amounts of radio traffic that persuaded the Germans monitoring the intercepted messages and photos from reconnaissance planes that Patton would lead the invasion of Europe.
The Brits were very good at these deception operations, but the Soviets were better. Maskirovka is the Russian term for preparing and delivering a massive sucker punch without alerting the enemy to the Russian intentions. Operation Bagration is an iconic example:
By mid-war the Soviets had fully mastered radio discipline and communications security. Camouflage techniques had progressed significantly, and the Soviets had largely mastered the difficult task of quickly relocating troops to take advantage of German weak points. Zhukov noted that by that time the Soviets were much better at keeping their intentions secret and at spreading disinformation and misleading the enemy. By then most Soviet units were using code tables in all radio and telephone transmissions. Codes were being changed every 24 hours, and cipher keys were being transmitted only by courier. An extremely detailed maskirovka component was included in each operational plan.
In Belorussia, as part of Operation Bagration in mid-1944, Soviet tanks and guns rolled out of the swamps on the northern edge of the Pripet Marshes, surprising German defenders. Undetected by the Germans, Soviet engineers had laid wooden causeways, creating makeshift roads for the Soviet armor that made gains of 25 miles per day against the startled Germans, who dropped back against the remorseless onslaught.
The planning of Operation Bagration was kept so secret that the Soviets were able to have partisans strike German Army Group Center’s key transportation points. Deception efforts had encouraged the Germans to reinforce the southern sector of the front while the decisive blow hit in the north. The destroyed railroad lines meant that the Germans could not easily redeploy their armor where it was most needed.
Kudos to Patrick Armstrong for his incisive observation that modern deception in the age of vast Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (aka ISR) capabilities is a vastly more difficult challenge compared to what was employed in World War 2. Tolkien’s Eye of Sauron has become a reality in the 21st Century, i.e., an all-seeing eye that can pierce the battlefield and behind. It is highly unlikely that Ukraine or Russia can assemble a large army in one particular sector of the battlefield without being detected. The United States has ignored deception on this front by regularly announcing the deployment of troops and equipment to Ukraine’s border.
When it comes to the war in Ukraine, it appears that Russia enjoys a massive advantage in maskirovka because NATO lacks a coherent strategy and is under enormous pressure to pander to domestic politics. Then there is social media and the internet. It is a powerful means of shaping public opinion and confusing intelligence analysts. Western fixation on Prigozhin and the Wagner Group is a prime example. Americans and Europeans have been bombarded with stories and videos about the latest antics of Wagner. So answer this question — where is the rest of the Russian Army? The Western media rarely reports on the activities and status of the rest of the Russian Army except when a commander, like General Popov, is removed from command. What is odd about the Popov story is that he has been sent to lead Russia’s military operations in Syria rather than being cashiered. Maskirovka? Perhaps.
Maskirovka is a lot like fly fishing. The deception planners have to figure out how to bait the hook with something the Western public and military planners will readily swallow. It would not surprise me that Russia has been feeding the West stories about chaos in the Russian military, Putin’s isolation and illness, and terrible morale. We already see that many senior officials in the United States and Europe embrace these memes. If Western leaders are persuaded that Russia is teetering on the brink of collapse they are more likely to dismiss intelligence reports and ignored evidence that tell the opposite story.
My suggestion is simple — take everything you read in the media and on the internet with a big grain of salt. I believe that Russia’s military planners continue to embrace deception as a central component of their military strategy and tactics. and that many in the West are ignoring this concept. Conversely, the United States and its NATO allies — enamored of social media — are focused of doing information warfare to the exclusion of other camouflage operations. The end result is confusion — NATO is struggling to figure out what Russia will do to bring the military operation in Ukraine to an end.
Then there’s the Media, or what people call the MSM, which subordinates itself to the CIA, FBI, MI5 and MI6. I just wrote about The Daily Telegraph in support of Alastair Crooke’s takedown of one of their videos – https://mikehampton.substack.com/p/daily-terrorgraph-telegraph-british-propaganda
Part of the deception is politicians, not because most are evil (they are) but because only a few know what’s going on, whilst some are unknowingly assets in the disinformation war.
To not give Western deception too much credit, it’s worthwhile watching an interview with William Arkin about the CIA’s role in Ukraine – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhLLupsfGEU
In possible contrast, regards Russian pys-ops, search for ‘Prigozhin addresses Wagner in Belarus’ video at https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/putin-strikes-back-ukrainian-ports
“Then there’s the Media, or what people call the MSM . . . .”
Actually, that is no longer the case. The fully owned, fully controlled, fully manipulated, fully propagandized media no longer wants to be referred to as “mainstream media.”
MSM wants to be called “Legacy Media.” Apparently, even MSM knows it has been caught not only shitting in its own pants one too many times — but ours as well.
The MSM nest has become too fouled. MSM needs another nest.
Actually it began before 2014………2014 was the reaction after Yanukovych was toppled……..but in 2004 Yanukovych ran for President to replace Kuchma……….
In a very shady election infiltrated by US …….he was beaten by Viktor Andriyovych Yushchenko who resurrected Bandera and promised to close Russian naval facilities in Crimea and join EU and NATO…………
He was “handled” by his new wife – Chumanchenko from USA who seems to be so deep into DC and State Department as to be CIA
Deeply unpopular by 2010……..Ukrainians voted in Yanukovych who had been Governor of Donetsk……..
Unhappy US needed him removed – Maidan
This game with US started 1991 not 2014 which was simply the backlash against its tactics
Short, Paul, but 100% correct.
I dug into that in my Nazism in Ukraine articles.
Me, of all people, never knew what MSM was until recently. The acronym has exploded in usage. I used to just called them the Media, a dystopian M in my brain. Similarly, we use “alternate media” as a term cause everyone understands it but its really not an alternate but an only.
Yeah excellent points here to consider. I think in the end the Russians are more disciplined and likely not as reactive to social media. It seems from Nato´s perspective the only consideration is how things look and no concern for the actual situation at hand. I think for me the scariest part of Nato and the US in particular seemed to be mesmerized by their own lies to the point they can not see reality. Only time will tell but I bet the Russians have something planned that will allow the to accomplish their goals and further the destruction of the West. We shall see………
It seems from Nato´s perspective the only consideration is how things look and no concern for the actual situation at hand
The strangest thing is that there was no need to sugarcoat how things looked at the beginning–the US/West could have very well said that Russia is strong and that sacrifices would be required, but that they are necessary for (whatever BS reason resonates).
Instead, the powers that be decided to outright lie with blatantly stupid falsehoods that were always going to be verifiably false within short order, thereby destroying their own credibility (e.g. the Russians are going to run out of ammunition within a few days, the Ukrainians are shooting down over 100% of the missiles lobbed their way, Russians don’t have night vision technology, Russia is destroying its own pipelines and dams, etc.)
Even now, the narrative is that if the US or Germany enters this war directly, Russia is screwed. And yet the countries also say they need to restock their weaponry. Wouldn’t very basic common sense instead dictate something along the lines of “Russia is strong, but the west will prevail if we make a concerted effort, and that means emphasizing armaments”?
They are desperate to save face for NATO, the EU, etc., or lose their power abuser benefits and above all, the welfare checks. So expect more of the same, more tall tales, and a lot more death and destruction so a nest of parasitic power mongers with no cost benefit to any society can continue dragging us all down.
To Resistere
BINGO!
If you mean the American public ought to see the truth, I think that’s unlikely to happen. Most Americans aren’t paying close attention to this war, and they certainly won’t be focused enough to recognize obvious lies, at least until they’ve become REALLY obvious lies.
You CAN get their attention, though; one way would be the “level with them about Russian strength ” idea you suggest. As soon as they understood that this war against weak Russia was a war against strong Russia, and that the end result of this escapade could involve their homeland being turned into a smoking ruin, they’d start to pay close attention, indeed. They’d need a really, really, really good reason to support such obvious lunacy. I think on some level, criminal elites understand that this would be a really tough sell.
Better to feed them the lie, which they’ll continue to believe, long past the point at which any reasonably intelligent person (caring to connect the dots) would have seen through it. “Russia’s weak. We can still slap them around like we used to.” And “We need to stop [demonized for years] Putin from being an evildoer, and we can do it without any major risk to your Netflix.”
People in the US have been so conditioned over the last decade to view the Russians as both evil and incompetent, that anything that broadly comports with that picture will be accepted immediately and uncritically by most.
I’ve feared for awhile the possibility that the American people won’t wake up to the danger they’re being exposed to by the criminal cabal they’re being run by, until they see the mushroom clouds.
“. . . in the end the Russians are more disciplined . . . .”
Good point. Very true. Frustratingly so. So many Americans believe whatever the US “Legacy Media” puts out there. I tried offering the idea that Russia was punking the US with the whole Prigozhin thing and was looked at like I was crazy.
rom Rezident_UA’s Telegram Channel:
Courtesy of MOA comments: “Our source within the (UA) Presidential Office has revealed that with the support of British intelligence, a plan is being developed for cargo ships to pass through the ports of the Odessa region. Currently, negotiations are underway with private companies to acquire several ships that will symbolically sail to Odessa and provoke Russia into an attack. If the cargo ships pass through peacefully, Ukraine will declare the grain corridor safe. However, if an attack on these peaceful ships occurs, Ukraine aims to launch an international campaign against Russia.”
Does anyone really doubt that the Brits would not be forefront in such a scheme or that such a scheme is in the works?
But who would crew such a vessel? Ukrainian torpedo fodder?
I doubt the Russians are bluffing on this one.
Looks like the Black Sea is about to become a black hole for all sorts of ships soon.
CNN: ‘Ukraine issues threat to Russian ships’
Also: ‘First US cluster munitions used in Ukraine’.
When will the first RU clusters hit the deck?
Pogo
This one is only suitable for the clown show. “British Intelligence” – WHF is that? Any of their warships (two of them) will be immediately blown out of the waters anywhere near Crimea, and would be a suitable epitaph for power that USED to be the British Empire. They still cannot come to grips with the fact that they are absolutely irrelevant now – the so-called british empire has ceased it’s exsistence LONG AGO!
And yet, Russia has not hampered the main C4ISR, namely AWACS and satellites. Both for avoidance of escalation and to learn capabilities of the same. Learning also involves positioning of men and assets in order to succeed with their battle plans.
A computer science lecturer was fond of saying I don’t like software updates, I’ve learned the workarounds for the old bugs and if I get an update I get a new set of bugs and I have to discover a new set of workarounds.
We could apply this to your comment about not hampering the main C4ISR, namely AWACS and satellites, and learning their capabilities.
“and all of us merely players” We are easily fooled, at least for a time. The west must be gathering their own intel and it must tell them they are losing all their credibility and most likely their jobs for continuing their get rich scheme.
I wonder where they will go to elude their population that is looking for them, like Sauron.
They’re going nowhere… In fact, they’re making plans to consolidate and perpetuate their political, economic, and financial control over the rest of us. Economic and financial collapse in the West means a war is necessary to maintain domestic control. Since Russia is destroying their proxy, demilitarizing their war stockpiles and dismantling their global empire, that means a civil war is on the table…
Or do you think all those military-age illegal immigrants are just for show?
New Zealand for the puppet masters. The puppets will be left dangling for the mob.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/06/new-zealand-loses-appeal-to-rich-foreigners-as-investor-visa-numbers-plunge
Thinking Popov landing in Syria is especially bad news for the American off-the-books oil operations, now protected by the military presence. Uninvited guests about to be summarily shown the door…via air mail.
Thinking that the Russian efforts in the north from Kharkov to Belarus require Surovikin to brilliantly shape the battlefield as he did in Kherson.
Those darn rogue Russian Generals keep getting themselves into the next big things…🤦♀️🤷
Considering there are claims that over 80% of Syrias oil is being filched, makes me wonder if Wagner are going to pop up out of the sands and reclaim the oil fields. That has to hurt somebodies bottom line big time.
Yes, I realise it is a second front, but the chutzpah of such a move is one that makes me grin. It also means Russia attacks US interests face on, not via a proxy. Class.
Where exactly would Uncle Sam get the ammunition from to retaliate anyway. Maybe I need to get out more…_
“Where exactly would Uncle Sam get the ammunition from to retaliate anyway [?] ”
Careful.
It’s not just Russia that is supposed to be down to its last missile. The Ukrainian are supposed to be down to their last man, woman, child, grandmother and grandfather. It’s also the US having trouble finding any replacement military gear for the Ukrainian war effort.
Forget the EU, Europe, the UK, France, Germany, and the rest. They are all vasal states.
Russia has yet to really “start anything” as President Putin is fond of repeating. The Russians have yet to really introduce their top of the line, state of the art, technology and weapons to the battlefield, mainly because they expect to need it for the coming direct conflict with the United States (direct conflict with NATO having already been underway since before April 4, 1949).
Same thing can be said of the United States. We have been led to believe how the United States has been itching to fight Russia since well before Admiral Rickover’s famous 1957 speech, and long after President Eisenhower’s farewell address in 1961. The US knew that the very survival of any first world economy depended upon cheap energy and that the Fossil Fuel Age would end someday. The US has known about peak energy for a long time.
The Russians possess huge stores, and vast supplies of natural resources — in coal, natural gas, oil, minerals, and rare earths — in “shameful abundance.” By “shameful” I mean natural resources that the US is running out of.
The US doesn’t even possess the resources necessary to fight a conventional war. Nobody does.
World War 3 is inevitable.
http://energybulletin.net/2351.html
https://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~rogaway/classes/188/materials/eisenhower.pdf
https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=bcb1f40e3af9de1bJmltdHM9MTY4OTgxMTIwMCZpZ3VpZD0yY2ZlZjgyNi01ZWFjLTY5ZDQtMzZmYy1lYjBkNWYyYTY4YTUmaW5zaWQ9NTE5NQ&ptn=3&hsh=3&fclid=2cfef826-5eac-69d4-36fc-eb0d5f2a68a5&psq=Admiral+Rickover%27s+speech&u=a1aHR0cDovL2xhcmdlLnN0YW5mb3JkLmVkdS9jb3Vyc2VzLzIwMTEvcGgyNDAva2xlaW4xL2RvY3Mvcmlja292ZXIucGRm&ntb=1
Hi there.
I’m not sure that assertion, “No one does (re: sufficient resources to fight a large-scale non-nuclear weapons war) is correct.
In my opinion, given sufficient motivation, we would fight with sticks and stones, if that was all we had. Thus, the real war is the baby war, how many children does your society produce, and do you educate and train them in the art of combat.
I doubt our Wokesters, whether in North America, Europe, or that part of Asia friendly to American interests have any interest in procreation. Sex for pleasure- Oh Yeah, they live for that, but the serious business of raising the next generation is not their concern
On top of that the WEF agenda is to depopulate the west exacerbating the problem. Keep getting your booster shots and enjoy your sexual perversions while you can, because the clock is running out. Quite the novel way of societal suicide.
“Where exactly would Uncle Sam get the ammunition from…”
Which sources, besides the Pentagon and the White House, inform us the US is out of ammo?
dje
That stolen Syrian oil is not going on the world market, it is going straight to Israhell..
Will we be having mincemeat in Sicily…or in Greece?
RU is basically putting the present UKR political subdivision in the dark ages. They have no economy now save the US deficit print. Note the dollar index is dropping…. RU built the grain elevators, the pipe lines… the oil infrastructure….the power grid.. the Nord Stream…. but the west doesn’t want it.
Russia is taking it back… as it was theirs all along. The western leaning UKR population can look forward to EU?US welfare forever going forward…with one puppet govt after another.
The US and EU may very well cut the amount of aid, especially after the war is over and Russia has won. After that, either the Russians will rebuild the rump state and complete the removal of the Banderist neo Nazi types or the rump state will be a failed state, if the Russians only remove the Banderist regime without rebuilding.
In the case of the EU, they seem less able to afford to subsidize the Ukrainian puppet proxy regime. If this wasn’t obvious to the Establishment in Brussels, cheap Russian energy and natural resources contributed to their high standards of living and without them, they are poor. I suppose that they know, and wanted to loot Russia, which is why they provoked this special military operation.
The US has a long history of giving up on proxies. Ask the South Vietnam regime or the Kurds in Iraq about that one. There are many more examples. I get the impression from the recent NATO summit in Vilnius that Zelensky is about to be cut off.
Zelensky made a deal with the devil, so to speak. Now he’s about to get burned.
I recommend the latest article by SIMPLICIUS THE THINKER.
This is exactly what I have been writing for months. But a continental war seems too unreal and too unimaginable to most here in Natostan to accept that probability. They simply do not understand that this “confrontation” (war) is EXISTENTIAL to both sides‼
However, I believe that the U.S. is under an illusion if it believes that it will emerge victorious. As it did in 1945. Even then, if there is no nuclear attack on its territory, North America will be impoverished and end up in murderous chaos for a long time.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/putin-strikes-back-ukrainian-ports
it did not start out this way, everyone could live very happily and rich with a neutral Ukraine, sadly the US and EU decide this was the hill they want to die on.
In 1945, the USSR was also victorious. It’s armies outnumbered the Western allies. Whilst the West’s supply lines stretched across an ocean, the USSR’s supplies were a comparatively close rail or road trip.
If the West wants another European victory, it better start building liberty ships and maybe, some armaments factories to have munitions to load them with.
It must be hard for the average Westerner – being actively deceived by the Russians and their own media at the same time.
“being actively deceived by the Russians” – get off your meds that are obviously playing havoc with your brains.
It is highly unlikely that Ukraine or Russia can assemble a large army in one particular sector of the battlefield without being detected.
Perhaps true, but the communications can be hidden from detection (both camouflaged and disinformation operations).
As a total aside, if Asimov-style robotics ever become commonplace, it’ll be fascinating to watch how the all-seeing Eye of Sauron still sees everything, but is unable to interpret or anticipate anything
All warfare is based on deception. I read that somewhere….
Take it with a pinch of salt.
Sun Tzu, in his The Art of War, referring to the first tenet of warfare.
Every time I see a video from an alleged “troop on the frontline complaining about the hierarchy and lack of equipment”, be it from Russian or Ukrainian side, I have to wonder to which extent it is genuine or it’s just maskirovka. Repetition and actual effectiveness on the ground of the troops might bring clues, but only afterwards.
The UK media is particularly adept at very sophisticated mind bending and control of the narrative on Ukraine. This would make sense once you begin to realize the British are in a 200 year commercial war against Russia.
You can tell just how adept the UK media is for example, by reading comments on The Telegraph’s YouTube channel. The people you leave comments there is a good reading on how effective UK media sources are.
I think you should try get hold of Anthony Suttons book The Wall Street Trilogy as well as well as Merchants Of Deah by HC Engelbrecht. I feel that this SMO is the build up to another BANKSTER war in Europe for the benefit of the same people who bankroll both sides. UK and USA have never ‘wanted’ Russian soil , what they need is an adversary, a boogeyman. Both sides cotrolled by the financiers.
When you read an analysis of the battle of Napoleon in Waterloo, you will be surprised how many wrong decisions were made on both sides. You will be surprised that despite of plans, nothing came along as expected. And that the defeat of Napoleon was not so clear at the start of the battle.
So, war seems like throwing dice, and later on the winner claims that this was his genius plan that made him win.
I don’t want to say that this is also the case in Ukraine, but I see the tendency to claim that whatever happened, it was Putin’s plan.
Don’t get me wrong again: Putin is an intelligent person. But have a broader look: What in the world can you plan? Can you plan elections? Can you control the climate? Can you build up the economy? Can you therefore plan a war?
Everything has a momentum of incidence. And so, there are elements of planned maskirovka in it. But there is plenty of good or bad luck.
When will the Ukrainian army surrender? Any bets?
Everyting in life is like throwing dice (aka stochastic). Good preparation for things skews probabilities towards more favorable outcome, but does not guarantee it. Making less mistakes than the enemy also helps.
“I don’t want to say that this is also the case in Ukraine, but I see the tendency to claim that whatever happened, it was Putin’s plan.”
That tendency is nonsensical. He obviously has a high level plan, aka strategy, and he works out details as he goes. That’s how all planning works. He couldn’t make a plan about this whole grain deal shitshow two years ago. When he started SMO, he did not know how it will end. He still does not know. No one does.
sure there is luck. But lucky or no luck, I ain’t lastin a round (or a minute) with Mike Tyson even today, much less in his prime!
That is what contingency planning is for (which the US top seems very poor at – there was no plan B – the clue is the clue-less ness).
Yep, contingency planning. Murphy’s laws apply universally, and contingency plan is bound to become main one sooner or later.
You could last a minute if he suffers heart attack right at the start of a round, maybe. 🙂
There is a reason I did not use word luck at all. Probability is something else. If you were to have a fight with Tyson (Mike or Fury), people would bet on it. Odds on you lasting a round won’t be high, but won’t be zero, probably.
No one knows how this SMO ends? Really?! Most people, with functioning brains, know EXACTLY how this will end. Get your head out from wherever it is.
No one, except Dunning–Kruger people like yourself. You know know everything, and know it EXACTLY (not to be confused with exactly). You came from your castle in the sky to preach, and talk down to the plebs. And yet, for some reason, no one here is buying whatever you are trying to sell.
My head is in my palm.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3b/Paris_Tuileries_Garden_Facepalm_statue.jpg
P.S. A random quote that came to mind for some reason:
The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.
Russian bears grab and squeeze as they bite your head off. The sneaky part is the way they creep up on your gender propaganda.
Putin will get his cake on a plate plus the bloody table. The Ruskies are not going to stop until NATO is a corpse and the …US dollar is choking to death. (China)
The biggest deception is the “Wagner show,” it is still kicking and whispering inside NATO’s head.
So Larry was correct from the git-go.
One of the meths Rokossovski and Zhukov used to camouflage Soviet plans at Bagration was to take units from tank armies on the Ukrainian front but leave the bulk of the armies and their headquarters in place. The Germans assumed that since the HQs of the armies were on the Ukrainian front, the whole of the armies must be. They therefore assumed the USSR had no forces to commit to an attack through the marshes of Byelorussia.
“Necessity is the mother of invention but sometimes the stepmother of deception.”
Charlie Chan
Another great brit deception in WWll was Operation Mincemeat. Once upon a time the Brits were……different.
“…it appears that Russia enjoys a massive advantage in maskirovka because NATO lacks a coherent strategy and is under enormous pressure to pander to domestic politics. Then there is social media and the internet.”
Nato has a stupid strategy of fighting to the last Ukrainian as quickly as possible.
And as you imply, winning the perceived media war while ignoring the real one.
Russia appears to be conniving in the race to the last Ukrainian. The Popov, Prigozhin stories are being maximalised by both Russian and Nato intelligence to ensure Ukraine keep fighting on. There is something quite evil in this, a War Crime as Larry has noted before, though it is easier to understand the Russian rationale.
On Prigozhin and Popov the most curious thing is how the stories are constantly in the Russian media while western media pretend it aren’t.
Art of deception: why is the West so screamingly upset over Russia’s ending of the grain deal? Answer: because the grain ships were used to transport drugs out of Ukraine.
And maybe children for sex trafficking, body parts, adrenochrome, and anything from remaining biolabs. I have read of Russia’s finding children, body parts, and adrenochrome labs. Do have bookmarks, but unfortunately my right shoulder is useless right now due to muscle spasms so I’m henpecking this with my left hand.
simply because Treaty of Montreux 1936 closed the Straits to warships and somehow SBS operators in Nikolayev need supplying with kit……….and probably some of those grain ships are not as “civilian” as claimed
If gas can be sold to EU at inflated prices by the ever-avaricious Americans at luxury prices I am sure they can supply grain to the starving masses when Ukraine chokes on its own vomit
Excellent discussion here; thank heavens somebody’s talking about this instead of gossiping about these media vended personas, their stagey performances, vengeful motives, soap opera plots, and such like Kremlinology. When I was a kid I joined the team. How many times did I hear the coach say: ‘Keep Your Eye On The Ball’? It’s stupid simple, really, but it needs to be said, and said again and again. Well, we easily become distracted. I guess this is why deception works.
‘Fly fishing … it would not surprise me that Russia has been feeding the West stories about chaos in the military, Putin’s isolation, illness, and terrible morale. .. .. many senior officials in the United States and Europe embrace these memes.’ A consideration: methinks it goes beyond the question of belief. They (neocons) have existential issues too. They can’t afford to loose. They climbed out on this limb gaslighting everybody with a heavy dose of wishful thinking, that the sanctions would crush the economy, Putin would back down and all the rest. But more. There’s fighting in the captains tower. The realists in both Washington and Ukraine are, or were starting to speak up. I take it that the Russian leadership wants the neocons, who of course oppose the realists, to stay the course and keep feeding the meat-grinder. The attrition is working. The ideologues are thus confirmed in their propagandistic lies by Prigozhin, the upshot being that they insist that the offensive must continue. My sense of things is that the Russian military leadership actively intervened in Western decision making by means of these theatrical outbursts. However it’s also interesting that Prigozhin has been retired (?) and Surovikin, the architect of the defensive attrition strategy, has perhaps been reassigned. The indication here is that the exhaustion program has been mainly achieved and the next step might well come from the North – as I think you have been suggesting.
Last thought. I’m not confident I can express something I don’t quite understand .. but it concerns this ‘information warfare’. Early on commenters like the Saker would bitterly reflect on how the West possessed absolute dominance as regards the mediation of world opinion. Seemingly it was their greatest strength. But now? It appears to be their Achilles heel, a fatal flaw. The Ukrainian Army has been horrendously ground down, now several times, because the PR needs of Kiev’s handlers dictated operations that the Ukrainians could never afford. All to keep the money and arms flowing. And grift. My hunch is that the Russian leadership understood all this and shaped their campaigns accordingly.
“Early on commenters like the Saker would bitterly reflect on how the West possessed absolute dominance as regards the mediation of world opinion. ”
Saker was a clown who attended one of the “leadership” courses at “John Hopkins University” somewhere or other, thereby ensuring requirement of over-extension in matters of which he had little if any facility which were many, whilst he apparently deemed to be sufficient since snake-oil salesmanship has enjoyed lengthy success in “The United States of America” where painting horns green apparently remains popular.
“The Saker” was prone to emotionalism, fear and certainty/uncertainty oscillations, which proved useful in 2014 as another chorus which by default, not design, intoned the songs/wails that the opponents wanted to hear, including but not limited to “Russia must this, Russia must that, immediately” for reasons not wholly financial
thereby being assigned the designation of “Chicken little”.
To test the hypotheses above if his archive of 2014 remains available and unedited for reasons of ego and/or embarrassment, analyse his 2014 archive which was a source of merriment for some often called Anonymous.
Allegedly some opponents in a Damascene moment came to the belief that “The Saker did this by design and he ran away – offramps apparenently being almost unsourmountable to achieve – since tourists in warzones don’t tend to enjoy continued wellbeing, or well being, often through being hoist by their own petard.
As Mr. Johnson correctly observes:
“Conversely, the United States and its NATO allies — enamored of social media — are focused of doing information warfare to the exclusion of other camouflage operations. The end result is confusion — NATO is struggling to figure out what Russia will do to bring the military operation in Ukraine to an end.”
Instead of reading Mr. Lavrov’s observation https://www.rt.com/russia/579984-lavrov-objectives-ukraine-operation/ of 19/07/23, perhaps because of what could Mr. Lavrov possibly know.
After all he is only a gas station attendant?
In significant part this is facilitated by “The United States of America”’s immersion in if-only-the-papa-czar-knewness illusion and contingent worries of is-my-bum-too-big-in-this? as perceived necessities of achieving their purpose of sustaining “The United States of America” within a linear paradigm of acceptable tolerances sometimes upset by meeting a person of “colour”, and for some a person of other.
” It appears to be their Achilles heel, a fatal flaw.”
Achilles only had two heels whilst “The United States of America” have many.
Consequently “The United States of America” have many fatal flaws, whilst opponents from other cultures tend to stay quiet and not seek attribution, preferring to communicate with a mixture of silences and performances, given that “The United States of America” has enjoyed significant success in curved ball production.
” The end result is confusion — NATO is struggling to figure out what Russia will do to bring the military operation in Ukraine to an end. ”
Not buying that.
NATO has no intention of any kind of peace, and Russia knows this. Russia deployed ex-Wagner to watch the Suvalki Gap.
The Global South knows too. China knows they are next.
It is deception to avoid the essential point driving NATO to complete disarray, confusion – their financial economy is beyond repair – no bailout whatsoever can work, even looting all of Eurasia.
NATO military and CIA types simply have no grasp whatsoever of economics (the ammo deficit is but a tiny hint.) In other words these types deceive themselves. Russia has to do nothing.
Except of course Russia is fully aware of the driving desperation of utter transatlantic bankruptcy.
And there is a way to end this madness – take on the rabid financial system of 300 years , split it up, and then BRICS+ will suddenly realize they are already doing that.
“It is deception to avoid the essential point driving NATO to complete disarray, confusion – their financial economy is beyond repair – no bailout whatsoever can work, even looting all of Eurasia.”
The irony of this comment is stunning.
The whole idea of re-establishing relations with China in 1972 was that “trade stops wars.” And right after that the US (and the West) began out-sourcing their economies to China. Any complaints were met with the same claim about how “trade stops wars” expressed by corporate oligarchs as “do you want to pay less to have your stuff made abroad, or more to have it made at home.”
Now, with the loss of meaningful jobs, enough income to pay for things like affordable housing, or trips to Disney World, much less a meaningful retirement, or the existence of a first world healthcare system, the death of the American Middle Class, means things are coming apart here at home. Nothing is affordable at any price.
The desperate attempts by our elected for life professional politicians to cover this fact up by any and all means possible, including wanton and open criminality and acts of treason cannot begin to cover-up the facts.
And now western economies are collapsing, mainly because “a country that makes nothing is nothing.”
The irony here is that war is not coming from China or Russia. War is coming from the United States. When the first direct conflict between the United States and Russia takes place the vassal states (AKA “the West.”) will side with the winning side — Russia and China.
World War 3. We did it to ourselves.
“The whole idea of re-establishing relations with China in 1972 was that “trade stops wars.” ”
Not to some others.
Some understood by 1969 after Tet that “The United States of America” re-establishing relations with China in the medium term would accelerate the transcendence of “The United States of America” since both parties would highly likely engage in “re-establishing relations” partly to screw the other.
“Trade stops war” was a joke told by Mr. Nixon and others to the little people to lubricate acceleration of de-industrialisation to enhance return on investments, and replace it by financialisation to enhance further returns downstream, facilitated by the alchemy of turning gold into paper thereby motivating The People’s Republic of China in due course to increase efforts in screwing “The United States of America” whilst “The United States of America” would require to exponentially increase their “military” expenditure to sustain the ponzi scheme concommitant on the alchemy of changing gold into paper chosen by impatience and fear of transcendence.
Those who “think” they are Hawkeye are prone to limited perspectives.
“We did it to ourselves.”
Mostly, but if you want to understand most things throw the “exceptionalism” based sole/prime agency illusion in the trash can.
Your opinion is certainly welcome. But do you have to be such a douchebag about it. My comment was not a personal attack on you. Kind of wish it was, now.
“My comment was not a personal attack on you. Kind of wish it was, now.”
Don’t trouble I am not an American and hence do not perceive personal attacks or insults or co-operations being attacks by insults, which is normal for adults and adolescents in my culture, as is the framing since we communicate as adults and adolescents in an adult way.
However I noted the framing of your designation namely “BLAME-E” but did not moderate my framing for you, unlike some of “politicians” who regularly resort to oscillation between blame and “acceptance” as comfort blankets.
My text was in co-operative amplification and correction of a widely believed narrative of “The United States of America”, whilst the portal through which it was broadcast is never chosen for an audience of one, or the only form through which communication is made but not perceived, predicated upon a guiding principle of “Tell the truth as far as you can as few will believe you, and if you cannot stay silent, let them speculate the wisdom of which you illustrate by:
“But do you have to be such a douchebag about it. My comment was not a personal attack on you. Kind of wish it was, now.”
and more significantly:
the choice of “Your opinion….” in relation to the regular illustration of :
“Some understood by 1969 after Tet that “The United States of America” re-establishing relations with China in the medium term would accelerate the transcendence of “The United States of America” since both parties would highly likely engage in “re-establishing relations” partly to screw the other.”
Nixon did something much more destructive – he killed the Bretton Woods Gold Reserve in 1971 taking the US Dollar out to be the Petrodollar, now many years later facing de-dollarization. In other words the move to new currencies was actually caused by Nixon.
Trade is essential – look at the sheer volumes.
Deception is to smoke-and-mirror that Nixon debacle. I know he was under severe pressure, guess from where?
Had no choice or watch gold outflows at $35/oz
Could have increased taxes to reduce trade deficit and fully funded Vietnam War to cover GDP diversion thus reducing private spending but did not
A goldbug in 2021 nailed it – Britain forced this. Many files revealed here :
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/british-requests-for-3-billion-in-us-treasury-gold-the-trigger-that-closed-the-gold-window/
In other words Britain killed the Bretton Woods system, started the Petrodollar snowball that is now at the center of the madness.
In other words, the USA in 1934, after 1929, with FDR’s Banking Act, split 1800 banks over 1 long weekend, separating commercial deposit and credit from investment – even boardrooms could have no overlap!
Today especially after he 2008 crash like 1929, the global banking system is splitting. This is the 1934 Banking Act on a vast scale.
This “bifurcation” is euphemistically referred to even in the simplicius article linked here.
And peace negotiations MUST begin with this development, and the clearly stated reasons – the vast majority desperately cheap development credit. The NDB headed up by Brazil’s Dilma Rousseff is very clear about this.
Peace is only possible with development.
Russia is doing to NATO what it did in Bakhmut. Meat grinder.
The continued unrolling of the greatest maskirovka of all time rolls on.
So lets look at General Popov………
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_Popov_%28Russian_general,_born_1975%29
A rising star and he is clearly part of the maskirovka . He was not sacked for complaining about not rotating his soldiers out of the front line, he was transferred, along with some other commanders over time, to Syria,,,,,,,,,
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1680525703865925633
Since Russia has been raising the tempo of harassing US aircraft over Syria I would suggest that Russia is seriously raising its troop strength in Syria for the upcoming expulsion of the US from Syria and the transfer of Russian commanders to Syria over time was to resolve troop and hardware requirements for the intended battle.
For those interested in how Wagner is currently living rent free in Western minds………….
https://warnews247-gr.translate.goog/ektakto-i-vagkner-bainei-dytiki-oukrania-omilia-g-prigkozin-stin-stratia-tis-orchistras-tha-grapsoume-istoria-xekiname-douleia-tin-megalyteri-ston-kosmo/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB
A solid case can be made that the lead actor on the public stage for this maskirovka is Prigozhin, whose wild antics have captivated the West.
Whoszear,Does it strike you as odd Popov complained of the lack of counter battery weapons when the Ukies are admittedly short of artillery and the ammo to shoot.Seems to me counter battery equipment is way down the list of Popovs needs.
No, Popov’s “complaints’ were just part of the show to cover/obscure his intended transfer to Syria.
Nothing odd in there. This is artillery war. Most of casualties are artillery related. Most of complaints are artillery related. Everyone on the fronline wants even less incoming artillery fire, and even more outgoing. 10:1 casualty rate looks great on paper, but in the trenches it’s still bad because shell are still falling.
Komsomolskaya Pravda relates from Turkish sources that in Vilnius during the NATO meeting Ukraine was demanding 30-40 thousand male Ukrainian citizens to be sent back to Ukraine (and mobilized into the UAF) from NATO territory.
https://www.kp.ru/daily/27531/4795793/
Chaos is happening in the Ukrainian army: Soldiers are deserting, raids are on the streets, and the minister bought a villa in Cannes
Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov bought his daughter a villa in Cannes
In his last (in terms of time) interview, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are strong in the unity of soldiers and officers. Not the first and not the last such statement, designed to raise morale and stimulate the moral and psychological state of the Ukrainian warriors. However, in the Ukrainian army (and in society), things are not as smooth and rosy as the Minister of Defense sees (or tries to demonstrate). Which, by the way, almost immediately after the interview got into a new corruption scandal.
While Ukrainian soldiers were being thrown into a “counterattack”, the Minister of Defense acquired a villa
It turned out that at the time of that very “counterattack” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Minister of Defense Nezalezhnoy bought and gave his daughter Anastasia Steinhaus a luxurious villa in Cannes for a wedding for 7 million euros. The villa, of course, is another tidbit – a stylish setting, a chic location and even an elevator.
Actually, why can Zelensky buy a villa in Israel with a swimming pool, have real estate in London and other “capitals of the world”, but Reznikov cannot? Why is he worse than not even Zelensky or Yermak, but the Odessa military commissar or the granddaughter of the NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov, who launched an advertisement for her video on the largest screen in the center of Kyiv? And what does Reznikov’s salary of a million have to do with it? He didn’t buy this house with his salary.
16 thousand deserters from the Armed Forces of Ukraine
No, in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, everyone, to the last soldier, probably understands that if their elite in Kiev had not stolen so shamelessly and brazenly, then Ukraine, most likely, could have already launched its Death Star. But it turned out how it happened, and therefore the Armed Forces of Ukraine are strengthening the unity, how and with what they can. For example, desertion. According to informed sources, according to official data alone, last year 6,174 criminal cases were opened on the fact of “arbitrarily leaving a military unit or place of service.” This year, although he has gone only half way, there are already 6476 such proceedings under this article. In total, since the beginning of the Russian Special Military Operation, more than 16,000 servicemen have escaped from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And, although it is clear that a certain part of the military who died in positions
Threats to military commissars, raids on the streets and the “black box office”
In addition, the unity of the army has recently cracked along one more line – more and more often videos recorded on the front line by the Ukrainian military appear on the Web, in which the authors of the video promise the military commissars who called them to return (“not everyone will die, someone will remain alive”) and punish them to the fullest extent of military field “justice”. Go ahead and look around.
In some settlements, the teams of military enlistment officers, arranging raids on those to be mobilized, began to beat. But the majority prefers to simply pay off the patrols, for which it is usually enough to have 300-400 US dollars in your pocket. Although for each “caught” patrol receives a rollback of 8 thousand hryvnias from the military commissar (and this has long been no secret to anyone in Ukraine) from the military commissar’s “black box office”, 400 bucks is about 2 times more than the “bonus” for the head.
As for the “black box office” of the military commissars, it is formed from the sale of certificates of unfitness for military service, permission for sailors to leave the country, deregistration of vehicles, etc. Depending on the document and the “complexity” of the case, the fee here ranges from 6 to 15 thousand US dollars. Moreover, part of the “cash” goes to the rollback of the SBU and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, so that they do not interfere with the military commissars in this business and maintain their monopoly, catching and revealing corruption in this area of activity, for example, doctors who decide to profit separately from the military commissars.
The only unity of Ukrainians is that if there is an opportunity to steal or receive a bribe, they do it at any post. It can be said that they have implemented and brought to perfection the formula of the Soviet “non-bearers”: “Whoever guards what, he has it.” Only the Soviet bribe-takers were children compared to the current Ukrainian ones, because it could not even occur to them to oblige the “client” to give a bribe.
It comes to jokes that would be funny in other conditions. So, in the military registration and enlistment office (TCK) of Chernigov, a lawyer came to his client, who was illegally detained by a patrol and kept in the TCC, having mobilized him, who, unfortunately, was a man. Not only was he not allowed to see the client, but the military detained the lawyer himself and issued him a summons.
And it was necessary for the lawyer to turn to the services of a security company, which calculated a new promising topic and offered its services, however, so far only to students and applicants: “Escorting applicants from the door of the apartment to the door of the selection committee and back.” Moreover, although the company’s tariffs are not moderate, there is no shortage of customers. After all, as stated in the announcement about the services, “the company’s employees have numerous skills, including negotiations in the conditions of conflict resolution and extreme driving.” That is, after unsuccessful negotiations in a conflict with the military registration and enlistment office patrol, they themselves will be able to give a tear from the military registration and enlistment office, and the client will be taken out, delivered to the house safe and sound.
And some Turkish media even write that at the part of the NATO summit in Vilnius, closed from the press and the public, the extradition of men of military age to Ukraine was discussed as an extreme measure. Say, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, this measure could give from 30 to 40 thousand replenishment mobilized people, which should compensate for the losses in the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And besides, it will make absolutely senseless the flight of Ukrainian men to the EU, which, according to some experts, has taken on truly menacing proportions.
Whether this is actually the case or not, it is difficult to say now. But Zelensky, according to reliable rumors from sources in Kiev, after returning from Vilnius, set the task of mobilizing at least 200 thousand additional people in the Armed Forces of Ukraine in order to finally achieve at least some significant progress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the offensive and to report this victory to the West, which threatened to block faucet of finance and armaments in the absence of such success.
It is said – to the last Ukrainian. And no unity, real or imaginary, is a hindrance to this.
The greatest deception in WW2 was Churchill and FDR as great statesmen! More like useful idiots for Stalin.
The deception about Ukrainian wheat.
Just read the statements of western leaders:
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-17-23/h_660ae63ebdd06f2595d224b7455e9f9b
…And then look at the real and updated data:
https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative/vessel-movements
A further confirmation of the truth:
https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/black-sea-grain-deal-time-rethink-how-feed-world
..And here is what Putin says about the “grain deal”:
https://tass.com/politics/1509025
The conclusions are up to you.
And this is where we lose the next big war. Our MIC and politicians do not understand reality. We are no longer killing goatherds and their women and children. Russia and China know when your carriers are heading their way. They have weapons to kill your aircraft carriers. As has been stated. Russia and China have militaries to defend their countries. We have militaries built to invade and dominate small countries. And we think we can fight Russia and China with those.
And with the news out that the trannies in the military do not have to pass the PT tests or get deployed? Watch enlistment drop even further. Here young white Christian. Sign up! 30 hours of white guilt hetro hate training a week. And then off to the battlefront while the trannies stay home and twerk for your children. They are currently playing the enlist foreigners for citizenship game. (Imperial Rome anyone?). When that fails, can you imagine if they brought the draft back? Would that rouse the smartphone zombies?
The other thing is Taiwan. Europe seems all in for following Ukraine down the meat grinder. Will Taiwan with their coming elections sign up for their ritual seppuku for US foreign policy? I know if I was a Taiwanese voter, I would be watching Ukraine. But who knows what filtered media the Taiwanese get to watch.
Napoleon was not short in the eyes of his peers. He was several inches taller than the ave Euro of the time. British Psych ops established the myth he was short. That was 200 years ago. Imagine what they can do today.
Some time ago I saw this article about locating Patriot missile batteries (and other military radar apparently). Looks damned interesting!
https://fas.org/publication/an-x-reveals-a-diamond-locating-israeli-patriot-batteries-using-radar-interference/
I also read something about defeating stealth by detecting the disturbance in the wash of existing radio signals, commercial broadcasts, and so on created by a moving aircraft. I was happy to see that smoke screens are still sometimes used. How about a small fleet of “crop dusting/fog machine” drones to blind an area? How about drones that carry a black box advertising them to be something else, maybe something very expensive? Seed an entire land area with fake black boxes, like mines? ISR wants to hear signals, well, accomodate until they are overwhelmed. Or send 20 fake tanks, rubber body mounted on a small cheap platform, remote controlled, looks like a tank, emits RF like a tank, but isn’t a tank, along with a few real tanks.
Here’s an invisibility shield .. I’d want one on the top of my tank, for sure!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJvGOI263po
I’m sure this is a case of the amateur saying, why not do this? However, I like that invisibility shield, personally.
“(and other military radar apparently)”
Every radar is a “missile magnet” (and so is any device with radio transmitter).
Some of your brainstorming stuff have been implemented on the battlefields, in a way.
That “invisibility shield” is more of a magic trick (which is appropriate, considering that Ramsay is a magician). In real life you would want some kind of thermal blanket, or camo net, and some branches stuck wherever possible.
The Russians are already distributing $100 ‘black boxes’ that spoof radar stations and lure HARM missiles onto an ‘off ramp’.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/n0zEnnm1DhSO/
The subtitles require some creative thinking.
Spoof radar stations have been a thing for a long time. Couple of decades ago, I’ve met a guy that was involved in development of some (it was couple of decades before that, and he didn’t say what came out of it at the end). Those things aren’t talked about much in the public, because stuff like that tend to be confidential.
The video itself was made for propaganda purposes, and it doesn’t show anything of importance. I surely would be interested in seeing the details, in case the whole video isn’t just a psyop to confuse the enemy.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=sympathy+for+the+devil+rolling+stones+youtube&qpvt=sympathy+for+the+devil+rolling+stones+youtube&view=detail&mid=F59FDF8323C13AA4B670F59FDF8323C13AA4B670&&FORM=VRDGAR&ru=%2Fvideos%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dsympathy%2Bfor%2Bthe%2Bdevil%2Brolling%2Bstones%2Byoutube%26qpvt%3Dsympathy%2Bfor%2Bthe%2Bdevil%2Brolling%2Bstones%2Byoutube%26FORM%3DVDRE
“May the force be with you.” ‘Cause you’re going to need it.
“Still germane,” as some say.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4UUw5PXBdg&pp=ygUZZXZlIG9mIGRlc3RydWN0aW9uIGx5cmljcw%3D%3D
The Masters of Deception, with Weapons of Mass Deception, known as Derivatives is the British Empire.
Deception 1 – the British Empire was replaced by the American Empire – Agent Zelenskyy’s personal handler is MI6 chief Richard Moore.
Deception 2 – the $2 QUADRILLION of derivative paper in only 6 Central Banks proves the transatlantic economy is OK.
Deception 3 – stop worrying and learn to love the Derivative Bomb.
Derivatives were used in the very first Great Crash of Bardi and Peruzzi Venetian Banks. Today these Weapons of Mass Deception have AI, are on autopilot.
And modern ISR does in fact pick them up – see the Bank of International Settlements balance sheet reports.
Russia knows it faces a formidable enemy, the King of Deception (has other names too…), with plenty of decievers in its ranks.
A Spanish analyst, Ruiz Calvo, hazarded a guess the other day on his channel that Russia would soon attack but not from the south and east. He reasoned that those approaches have been too thoroughly mined by Russia to be safe areas for advance; some of the mines are timed to expire and others could be defused but the chore would be arduous and time consuming. Ruiz suspects the strike will come farther north, in Kharkov, and proceed southward so as to sandwich the Ukrainians between them and Russian forces currently on the line of contact in the east and south. He doesn’t discount a coordinate strike or feint from Belarus toward Kiev. If this is the case, it would help explain where that huge missing Russian force is that Larry mentioned in today’s article.
Back in the day when the US Army decided that they should “do” deception, I was the guy who wrote the Field Manual, FM 90-2. My research was at great depth of the Soviet model. Their theory was that in order to be successful, you needed to know how the decision maker thought. Similar concept works for Psyop, but the audience is different. Sadly, the senior generals never really wanted to do the work to make deception work. It quickly broke down into quick to use techniques at the tactical level (decoys and such), ignoring anything at the operational level (too much work) and essentially passing it off to the strategic level because “they have the time to do it” and of course no one really had to do anything. Some of the war games we conducted produced some amazing results when you could compare how the enemy reacted based on what force structure you would show them.
Another humdinger! A perfect cast to use the fly fishing analogy.
One question: with the dam burst and subsequent disappearance of the reservoir there was some discussion on whether it might make it easier for Kiev to attack the east bank on Dniepro. Some maintain that the ground having been underwater for decades would be too soft.
I was put in mind of descriptions of how roads in Siberia alternated between hard frozen ground and mud. The summer roads were based on felled trees. Now Larry mentioned the way Soviets managed a similar approach to cross marsh and take the Nazi forces by surprise. Could the same be done today I wonder?
It’s an open ground for miles, with enemy on the other side. If it was flat and hard, some kind of ludicrous speed banzai charge over it might be doable. Any kind of slow moving column in the open ground, tends to turn into target practice for ATGMs.
I’ve read somewhere about appearance of some road that used to be there before the dam was built. If that is true, then both sides surely have made defensive positions to prevent any surprises there.
The British was in secret negotia-tions with Hungary september 1943, the “surrender party’, Hungary wanted to surrender to the west, but their army still fought in Russia.
But the Germans heard about it,
and planned countermeasures. Allen Dulles, OSS in Berne, planned
the Operation Sparrow, for Hungary, sending 3 agents to Hungary, air dropped March 19, 1944 but they were caught, and became PoWs.
After that Germany launched the
invasion, of Hungary, March 19/20,
1944, a good thing for the British,
thinking lesser Germans at the D-Day sector, maybe for a while, but
instead Hungary’s vulnerable Jewish community,(800 000) be-came victim for SS/Eichmanns Sonderkommando, in the German train.
The fastest, biggest Holocaust
operation, so far, 437.000 Jews were transported to Auschwitz, during 8 weeks, 90.000 survived.
The Hungarian Jews were more protected in Hungary, as in the beginning of 1944, but the Western
allieds, wasn”t able to see the danger for them, just the need to tie German forces down, away from Normandy. But not the full spectrum, so it is deception and deception.
See the book by Taras Soros, George’s dad. At 14yrs George cleaned out the neighbor’s empty houses for Eichmann’s economics ministry, and boasted on PBS it was the greatest time of his life. Then hired in London, mentored by Popper’s Open Society.
Then ran the Queen’s very own Quantum Fund when the LTCM crash and emergency bailout was forced through by the FED. LTCM blew out with the Russian GKO default.
Rumors Royalty were not amused.
Thrown out of Hungary with his CEU a few years ago.
Some see through deception.
“Hungary’s vulnerable Jewish community,(800 000) be-came victim for SS/Eichmanns Sonderkommando”
Primarily non-zionists outside Budapest who were deceived primarily by zionists not limited to Mr. Kastner.
Allied deception W2 required that every nazi agent in UK be caught and turned…and of course a vast number of clerks had to make up all the inter-meshed details of this giant lie, so that the nazi agents all reported congruous events. It was not a perfect operation, but it was good enough to permit the “allies” to land in Europe and thus prepare to attack the Red Armies, or at least stop them. See operation unthinkable etc sec. That didn’t go through though, so they invented the cryptonazi “nato” to prepare a better attack on east, Barbarossa 2.0… see Ukraine…
Thus deceptions like onion – layers of deceit.
When one knows that the enemy is watching this is wonderful…like magician and birdie…makes deception easier…but it takes time to adapt.
Criminals use decoys all the time… this only works if the cops are watching the decoy…modern ISR make this easy.
“modern ISR make(s) this easy.” for those with facility in interaction with those of stupidity.
Maskirovka is also universal explanation that western experts use for everything they fail to understand about Russia.
Speakin’ of understanding Russia, here is a recent video that helps with that a bit.
https://odysee.com/@airbornewolf:8/RF-tank-manufacturer-Uralvagonzavod-has-increased-production-by-300-percent,-new-delivery's-continue-according-to-schedule:c
https://odysee.com/@Velyaminov:a/The-Russians-are-coming:b
(I have posted two different versions, because WordPress tends to mess up links)
The subject of deception in warfare is interesting and, of course, vitally important; and rapidly evolving technologies and field experiences should be studied very closely to extrapolate responsibly.
Confederate General Nathan Bedford Forrest, the Wizard of the Saddle, used deception on several occasions to best his Yankee opposites. He had Sherman desperate and fuming.
And then, there was the cunning and bold and brilliant flanking movement by Jackson under Lee (the Old Gray Fox) at Chancellorsville, where my ancestor, Capt. David Ballenger (CSA), emerged suddenly and surprisingly from the woods alongside other Southern patriots to smash and drive the Yankee flank end on, and to rout “Fighting Joe” Hooker and his invading blue-bellies.
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But superior forces that can move and strike with virtual impunity have no existential need of deception.
During America’s first war for independence, General Francis Marion, the Swamp Fox, was obliged to fight from the Pee Dee swamps when the British occupied Charles Town and Ninety-Six and Camden, etc. But near the end of the war, at Eutaw Springs, and after decisive patriot victories at the Cowpens and King’s Mountain, there was no more need to hide from the enemy between clashes.
Russia is now reducing Ukraine prior to a final sweep to the Polish border. When Russia is good and ready, one could plaster the Russian troop dispositions and order of battle all over the internet and it would not matter, because nothing would stop Russian arms, short of, perhaps, a global nuclear exchange.
Now, would-be American patriots, fed up with living under Yankee-communist tyranny, should study current technologies and tactics and strategies now being employed in Ukraine.
Been there, done that.
Britain, the single CSA supporter, never forgave Lincoln for holding the Union together. The CSA embassy still exists in Liverpool :
https://ldhi.library.cofc.edu/exhibits/show/liverpools-abercromby-square/abercromby-southern-club/embassy-confederacy
The USA has one, and only one enemy.
Now many would ask what could the defeat of the Confederacy have to do with Russia?
Well, it is a fact that Czar Alexander II in 1863 sent the Russian Navy to blockade New York and San Francisco, with a written warning to London and Paris, that any imperial attempt to interfere would be an act of war with Russia.
https://www.history.navy.mil/content/history/nhhc/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/r/the-russian-navy-visits-theunited-states/_jcr_content/body/media_asset_1316848773/image.img.jpg/1569335605868.jpg
The CSA expected British and French support that never came – the NATO of the time was flummoxed by Russia.
Putin referred to this in 2013, 150th anniversary
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0
Deja vu?
First of , all I salute everyone in the chat section ! I can see a lot of impatient and unsatisfied individuals here on the website , in the commenting section . I will not judge anyone because first of all ,I don’t have the right to do so nor the desire to do it , everyone is entitled to his own opinion . Some of you are asking why Russia did not destroyed Ukraine already because it had enough time and why still not doing it . Well that is very interesting question and rightfully asked . First of all this is not a war ,it is an SMO and it differentiates a lot from a war , even though the intensity is extremely high , the highest since WW2 . If it will transform into a full scale war ,with the current Russian advanced military technology , everybody will realize it and see the difference, I hope it does not happens thought .Russia could have defeated Ukraine in matter of days if they would have used their full ,superior , modern military power and use the shock and awe military strategy ,aka US led NATO alliance strategy (while murdering and displacing hundred of thousands of people) ,however the result would have been uncountable loses of human life’s of brother Slavs (as lot of Russians are calling the Ukrainians). This makes Mother Russia different (that’s why is called Mother Russia),from the West. Russian people still posses empathy towards others , while the West has only apathy (ignorance, indifference, impassivity ) . As a response for those impatient individuals ,I would say , never lose faith , patience and composure and never act from impulse or anger ! That’s what the US led West would like Russia to lose , patience and then the mistakes are made. Tactics does not win wars but strategy does. Patience is an art and Putin is a Master of this art. He knows very well the history and he applies it accordingly in this conflict (if you don’t know the history you tend to repeat it with all the mistakes done in the past). For those asking how long Russia can sustain this war , I would answer the question saying for as long it will take to achieve the set goals , but I would not say the same about the West ,which is practically bankrupt and scraping the bottom of the barrel for more weapons. A lot of people have no clue nor have the adequate information’s of how well Russia was prepared for this SMO or war however you would like to call it. As a start ,in order to make an idea , you should go back in 2007 and watch Mr.Putin remarks or address from Munich Germany. This would be a good start to understand the outgoing conflict .Putin consistent speeches along the years since then are something to watch or listen and then everything will make sense for most of the readers. Putin is a patient, moderate , outstanding , the only ,sane world leader. He has been preparing Russia for this conflict for 20 years or so. Not only militarily ,but economically ,financially and politically as well as he knew that US led West will throw everything at them, even the kitchen sink when the hostilities will start, that’s what happened as we know .The West committed suicide .The US led NATO had this plan in works to provoke Russia into a war against Ukraine for a long time with the goal of weakening Russia ,destroying Russia and then break Russia in parts and pillage it, rob it of their natural resource and extend the dominance of the West further. As the plans from home don’t usually coincide with the reality , actions and facts from the ground ,here we are ,the West in bankrupt ,the NATO alliance and the EU is weaker militarily and financially as ever. The only one who got surprised by the Russian resilience on all fields it was the US led West. The West keeps pedaling the same narrative that Russia is running out of weapons since March 2022 which is BS, as we can see. Blame your adversary of what you are doing or of what you are suffering of .The US led West will be part of a rude awakening by the time this conflict ends.
First of , all I salute everyone in the chat section ! Some of you are asking why Russia did not destroyed Ukraine already because it had enough time and why still not doing it . Well that is very interesting question and rightfully asked . First of all this is not a war ,it is an SMO and it differentiates a lot from a war , even though the intensity is extremely high , the highest since WW2 . If it will transform into a full scale war ,with the current Russian advanced military technology , everybody will realize it and see the difference, I hope it does not happens thought .Russia could have defeated Ukraine in matter of days if they would have used their full ,superior , modern military power and use the shock and awe military strategy ,aka US led NATO alliance strategy (while murdering and displacing hundred of thousands of people) ,however the result would have been uncountable loses of human life’s of brother Slavs (as lot of Russians are calling the Ukrainians). This makes Mother Russia different (that’s why is called Mother Russia),from the West. Russian people still posses empathy towards others , while the West has only apathy (ignorance, indifference, impassivity ) . As a response for those impatient individuals ,I would say , never lose faith , patience and composure and never act from impulse or anger ! That’s what the US led West would like Russia to lose , patience and then the mistakes are made. Tactics does not win wars but strategy does. Patience is an art and Putin is a Master of this art. He knows very well the history and he applies it accordingly in this conflict (if you don’t know the history you tend to repeat it with all the mistakes done in the past). For those asking how long Russia can sustain this war , I would answer the question saying for as long it will take to achieve the set goals , but I would not say the same about the West ,which is practically bankrupt and scraping the bottom of the barrel for more weapons. A lot of people have no clue nor have the adequate information’s of how well Russia was prepared for this SMO or war however you would like to call it. As a start ,in order to make an idea , you should go back in 2007 and watch Mr.Putin remarks or address from Munich Germany. This would be a good start to understand the outgoing conflict .Putin consistent speeches along the years since then are something to watch or listen and then everything will make sense for most of the readers. Putin is a patient, moderate , outstanding , the only ,sane world leader. He has been preparing Russia for this conflict for 20 years or so. Not only militarily ,but economically ,financially and politically as well as he knew that US led West will throw everything at them, even the kitchen sink when the hostilities will start, that’s what happened as we know .The West committed suicide .The US led NATO had this plan in works to provoke Russia into a war against Ukraine for a long time with the goal of weakening Russia ,destroying Russia and then break Russia in parts and pillage it, rob it of their natural resource and extend the dominance of the West further. As the plans from home don’t usually coincide with the reality , actions and facts from the ground ,here we are ,the West in bankrupt ,the NATO alliance and the EU is weaker militarily and financially as ever. The only one who got surprised by the Russian resilience on all fields it was the US led West. The West keeps pedaling the same narrative that Russia is running out of weapons since March 2022 which is BS, as we can see. Blame your adversary of what you are doing or of what you are suffering of .The US led West will be part of a rude awakening by the time this conflict ends.
Sometimes, personal and very mundane things greatly affect military (and political) outcomes.
The sudden and unexpected death of a Russian Czarina saved Frederick of Prussia from defeat in the Seven Years’ War. (In the final days of the Third Reich, with Soviet armor rolling into Berlin, a bunker companion of Hitler, who idolized Frederick, wryly remarked that the death of a Czarina would not save Germany this time.)
General Lee was suffering from enervating heart trouble (and, of course, from Jackson’s absence) during the Gettysburg campaign.
General John Bell Hood, commanding the Confederate Army of Tennessee at the disastrous defeat at Franklin, was strapped to his saddle all day since, in previous battles, he had lost a leg (as well as an arm). After the fiasco, during the harrowing Confederate retreat in bitter and icy weather, General Forrest, shielding the remains of the army by a skillful rear-guard action, was asked about the state of affairs by a subordinate. Forrest responded with characteristic frankness and color: We now have half a general and half an army.
Field Marshall Erwin Rommel, the “Desert Fox”, commanded the Normandy area leading up to Overlord. Rommel had well-laid plans and had ingeniously design-engineered many obstacles intended to blunt and stop the amphibious landings.
But, when the attack came, Rommel was on leave for his wife’s birthday. (He had picked up some new shoes for her in Paris while in route to her in Germany.) His subordinate, left in charge, was an anti-Hitler conspirator, who, predictably, slow-walked the sector response when the Allies landed that morning. When Rommel finally got back, it was too late to prevent or throw back the Allied beachheads.
Had he been present, Rommel would likely have taken decisive action by ordering up armored units to stall and destroy the Allies on the beaches (even in the face of Allied naval bombardment and local air superiority).
Also on that fateful morning, Hitler’s aide, fearing to anger him, failed to awaken the Fuhrer in a timely manner. So again, when he awoke, it was too late.
Sounds like the Human Factor : 2 articles :
https://fabrizioulivieri.substack.com/p/the-human-factor?r=8sq96&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
“Some decades ago Graham Greene wrote The Human Factor, which highlights how even in the most secret plots of the secret services, what determines the results is the human factor.”
I find that military officers are also adept at deceiving themselves. When it was pointed out to Naval intelligence officers that they were testing their equipment in an international test environment, they denied it rather than face the fact that they were exposing their protocols to foreign observers.
Bagration: Part of the deception that the attack would go in the south, was that a tank armies radios were removed & took up a new life as said tank army. The real army moved north!
Syrian oil, goes to Israel!
Given that military ISR is so all seeing, we may now see a grand deception. It will follow a fundamental dictum in advertising; you figure out what the customer wants to see, you show them that, no matter how hard you have to fake it.
Has Patrick Armstrong posted new things? His blog went silent at the start of the SMO. One hypothesis is that Canada was threatening his pension, or worse.
Dec 2021 Patrick Armstrong: Canadian Security Intelligence Service Pays Me a Visit
This stratagem is really very interesting and useful. If the west high military authorities do not take this in consideration, is another prove of their incompetence.
Very good article… I think that you are close to understand what is coming and how it will end…
There is no cure for stupid
Great article thanks, Larry.
For anyone interested in spy craft before the advent of anything more sophisticated than spyglasses and waxed paper, the Aubrey-Maturin series of novels by Patrick OBrien are packed with intricate, authentic details. Early 19th/late 18th centuries covered and mostly during the Napoleonic Wars.
While away the hours this summer. They’re unputdownable if you’re interested in a good historical yarn and the sailing details and techniques are next to none. Many other authentic tidbits besides. Terrific.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_and_Commander:_The_Far_Side_of_the_World
Based upon the books.
What a great series. I was collecting them all, recently downsized and put them in “free stuff”, paperbacks mostly which I try not to accumulate. I am pretty find of Bernard Cromwell, The Fort is good, any of the Sharpe series.
Biden puts a woman in charge of the Navy. Her name and qualifications are meaningless. Because vagina.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had recommended Admiral Samuel Paparo for the position. Paparo is a TOPGUN graduate with 6,000 hours in F-14s/F-15s/F/A-18s, 1,100 carrier landings and experience commanding forces in war zones. BUT a vagina was more important. If you have a child in the military? Get them out. Our diversity hires will get them killed in the coming war with Russia and China.