Just because some information is presented in a classified briefing, that does not mean it is necessarily true or accurate. The men and women who put these briefings together or wrote the intelligence reports are human and can make mistakes. Keep that in mind as you read the rest of this article.
Let’s take a look at two of the BLUFs on three of the briefing slides. Remember, BLUF is the acronym for Bottom Line Up Front. If you are going to prepare briefings in the U.S. military you have to be proficient in the use of acronyms. The first two images are dated 28 February 2023. It is important to understand that this is a snapshot judgment based on the information that the Defense Intelligence Agency had in hand on that date.
BLUF #1 — Current UKR Air Defense (AD) plan balances limited resources to protect critical national infrastructure (CNI), population centers, front line of troops (FLOT), and other key assets across Ukraine. UKRs ability to provide medium range air defense to protect the FLOT will be completely reduced by MAY 23. UKR assessed to withstand 2 – 3 more wave strikes. As 1st Layer Defense munitions run out, 2nd and 3rd Layer expenditure rates will increase, reducing the ability to defend against Russian aerial attacks from all altitudes.
The red blocks on the right hand side of the image above show the dates when the particular Ukrainian AD systems will cease to exist or be able to fire.
The next slide provides a more detailed explanation of what is in store for Ukrainian AD capabilities:
ASSESSMENT
1. SA – 10 and SA – 11 comprise 89% of Ukraine’s Air Defense medium/high-range, medium/high-range (>20,000 ft.) Based on current interceptor consumption:
- BUK (SA – 11) will be completely depleted by 31 MAR 2023
- S – 300 (SA – 10) will have be (sic) completely depleted by 02 MAY 2023
2. AD systems with remaining interceptor inventory (SA – 3, SA – 12, NASAAM, IRIS – T, etc.) have a limited quantity of systems, which means that only select assets can be covered. They are unable to match the Russian volume and cannot be layered.
3. US/A&P SHORAD (Short – Range Air Defense System) contributions (Stinger, Avenger, Gephard, Crotale, etc.) continue to mitigate the expenditure of Strategic and Tactical SAMs. However, short – range, low altitude systems do not have the same deterrent effect on the threat of Russian multi-role aircraft tot the FLOT and CNI.
4. Limited or no Ukrainian Air-to-Air Defense (A2AD).
5. Multiple mitigating systems must be simultaneously pursued to increase decision for more sustainable solutions.
To put it in layman’s terms, Ukaine no longer has an Air Defense capabililty that can shoot down Russian missiles and combat aircraft flying above 20,000 feet. This turned out to be a prescient assessment. During the past three weeks, the Russians have been using more aerial delivered bombs launched by combat aircraft and have scaled back the use of missiles. And no, that does not mean Russia ran out of missiles, it is simply more cost effect and more lethal to drop 500 kilo and 1500 kilo bombs on Ukrainian positions. This fact also helps explain why Ukrainian casualties have gone up.
Pay close attention to this next BLUF. It concerns the reports on Ukrainian and Russian casualties.
We have low confidence in Russian (RUS) and Ukrainian (UKR) attrition rates and inventories because of information gaps, OPSEC and IO efforts, and potential bias in UKR information sharing. Casualty assessments, which fluctuate depending on the source, are informed by RUS, Wagner, and UKR officials. In the below sustainability assessments, high indicates the forces can sustain operations across all domains, moderate indicates the forces have difficulty sustaining operations in one domain, and low indicates the forces are unable to sustain operations across multiple domains.
What this assessment does not provide is a detailed explanation of the sources for the casualty and loss figures. This is shocking. DIA has the ability using overhead imagery to count destroyed and damage vehicles, tanks and artillery. If they were doing that I would expect the document to be classified TOP SECRET by virtue of the systems employed to gather such information. Instead, this document is classified S/NF.
I believe the information about Russian losses came from the Ukrainians. That is why the Russian casualties are exaggerated and the Ukrainian losses are minimized. That is why, in the BLUF, the brief specifically mentions, “potential bias in UKR information sharing.” This is just a nice way of saying, we know Ukraine is lying but policy considerations prevent us from saying so.
Notwithstanding the deception about Russia’s actual casualties and equipment losses, these briefings paint a dire picture of Ukraine losing its ability to fend off missile and aircraft attacks. And that is exactly what has happened.
An acquaintance who I respect, was quite willing to accept the Ukrainian claims in the early days of the war at face value. No longer. He now concedes that Ukraine is routinely lying to the U.S. about troop strength, readiness and battlefield achievements.
There is still lots of happy talk in the U.S. and NATO about Ukraine holding firm and Russia running out of shells. But media outlets fully supportive of the Biden policy in Ukraine are telling a different story. The Washington Post reported four days ago:
Even amid a shortage, Ukraine is firing about 7,700 shells per day, or roughly one every six seconds, according to a Ukrainian military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Russia, which may also be running low, is firing more — by some estimates triple that amount.
To keep up with their adversary and still conserve ammunition, the Ukrainian military is now pickier in selecting targets, often prioritizing equipment over small groups of infantry. Precision is key because misses mean wasted shells. And in underground workshops across eastern Ukraine, soldiers are using 3D printers and recycling unexploded ordnance to create alternative munitions.
Artillery rounds for Ukraine’s Soviet-era guns, which make up the majority of their arsenal, have long been in short supply. That has forced a reliance on the artillery provided by Kyiv’s Western allies because they use 155mm-caliber shells, which Ukraine has more of for now but for far fewer guns.
In light of the discrepancy between what Secretary of Defense Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Milley are telling the public and the disquieting facts revealed in the leaked cables, it is fair to assume that someone with clearances,who was disgusted by the lying, decided to blow the whistle without identifying himself or herself.
Some have suggested that the Biden Administration leaked this material in a bid to rally support for more aid to Ukraine. That is ridiculous. Some of the TS material floating around the web is revealing and damaging to U.S. relations with a host of countries and organizations, such as Israel, South Korea, Ukraine and the UN Secretary General. The size and scope of the leak persuades me that this was done by someone acting as a whistleblower.
I think Lloyd Austin and Mark Milley are channeling some Leslie Nielson from the Naked Gun:
Russia is one step away from achieving total air supremacy.
Here may be the quote of the day:
Nonetheless, unless the Biden administration changes course, they will continue to play Russian roulette with all the chambers full.
Stephen Bryen, senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute
https://asiatimes.com/2023/04/ukraines-spring-offensive-a-likely-death-trap-for-us-nato/
….and another article gem: The offensive is largely the brainchild of US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland. She is the éminence grise in the Biden administration when it comes to Ukraine.
As if we didn’t know.
Excellent point.
They have reported on the release of one hundred documents released. I have noticed only the same 8-10 documents on every site. If there is somewhere that has posted the complete set please post links.
Not that I have seen.
“Everything is going to plan” (General Confusion stated to whomever might listen) “Too bad it’s not our plan”, The general added quietly.
It is hard to comment on the level headedness of Leslie Nielsen in the “Naked Gun” when facing disaster, apocalypse, cancellation. But he certainly has a more coherent plan than the mouthpieces of someone or thing that doesn’t care if we know it.
5. Multiple mitigating systems must be simultaneously pursued to increase decision for more sustainable solutions.
I love the word salad. Must come from a 4-star restaurant menu.
My recent article on Substack on the “counteroffensive” does not mention the Pentagon “Leaks” aka Pentagon Incontinence….LOL which offers us nothing really new that we didn’t already know but really gives us a strategy for recycling old PowerPoint presentations. If the “CounterOffensive” actually occurs it will NOT break through to the Crimean landbridge. Even with a few more tanks and some extra ammo, the UAF lacks airpower and artillery and will be attacking cleverly fortified positions, with a significant number of poorly equipped, untrained troops. The RF now has the advantage of not having to worry too much about AD above 20,000 feet but AD below it with a change in tactics for helicopter and Su24 strikes using strike pairs and new electronic countermeasures for ManPads. The US no longer has the technological and industrial base to create new weaponry fast enough or in enough quantity. Russia’s base is growing and developing fast. The US produces MBAs. Russia produces engineers and it can now borrow Chinese tech. The Pentagon’s lack of house training tells us little — but it does draw attention to…well… the lack of training. Not the puppy'[s fault, of course . But its owners.
https://julianmacfarlane.substack.com/p/will-the-counteroffensive-happen
I think the whole fake leak was a psyops against the Russian General Staff.
Nb: if the Pentagon’s spokesman is anxious to talk about it, if the major media runs with it, etc., it’s probably a good bet it’s not a real intelligence leak.
I think Western intelligence sources wrapped up a bunch of unremarkable intelligence crap into a nothing burger and put a condiment of disinfo on top that they intended the Russian government and General Staff to fall for. Namely that the U.S./NATO have access to Russian General Staff intelligence and have monitoring and/or sources within the Russian military.
This is an age-old tactic used in WWII, Korea, Vietnam, etc., and is intended to sow distrust and suspicion in the ranks.
I’m guessing the Russians probably have guys with higher IQs analyzing this than guys in the unimpressive DIA clowns who orchestrated this so it was probably ignored by Russian intel within minutes/hours.
Exactly.
If it was REAL and thus would not suit the agenda the governments’ Fake News Media outlets would not run with it. They would simply ignore it or ridicule it. Isn’t that what they have been doing all along, why would it be any different now?
Bucha? Nord Streams? BRICS+?
They only (try to) feed us distraction, confusion, hate and fear. And their evil wishful thinking.
Move on.
Russia have an active military operations in 404 , they don’t need the US or the AFU to know what they are destroying, what it cost them and what is left to be “worked”.
The only way it could help the west is by showing “a fainted ignorance about the state of the conflict” to the Russians … who don’t believe anything from the west anyway.
Western officials and general public are the targets. Nobody talks about the situation on the ground in the MSM or even here anymore, while meat-grinder goes Brrr and more and more foreign officials are asking inconvenient questions cause of this ill-informed “leak”.
It’s just bad PR for Kirby , Brandon , Sullivan , Hutt & co and the inside leak is day by day a more plausible hypothesis.
A quintessence of our clown world. And said clowns are the ones in charge of finding a way for a peace deal … “Yay” !
“Nb: if the Pentagon’s spokesman is anxious to talk about it, if the major media runs with it, etc., it’s probably a good bet it’s not a real intelligence leak.”
it is about steering the conversation away from “oh look – the facts are 100% reversed from everything we have ever said before” to anything else.
There has to be a Pentagon narrative to fill column inches – other wise reporters will have to do their jobs.
In my place this Nato pentagonic idea would instantly be called an attempt to ”to try make a lemonade out of a lemon”.
Russia has finally begun hitting the bridges too. And the Imperialist States has according to Dreizin begun cutting back the money it has been pouring into Ukranazistan, using the IMF as a conduit at present. Next it’ll use slush funds to pay Elensky’s retainer.
https://thedreizinreport.com/2023/04/10/dreizins-first-un-retraction/
Nah. Next it will use our retirement accounts, the Soc Sec trust fund, and the residual cocaine in Hunter’s laptop for payment.
The brige south of Odessa have been struck at least half a dozen times so far, the last one being in February with some kind of naval drone thingamajig. Recent bridge stikes in Sumy region looks more like a test run for new batch of munitions.
Larry, could the purpose of the leak be to reinforce the general perception that Russia is winning?
I think there is a growing number of military and intelligence officers scared shitless about the direction of things.
Well they bloody well should be scared shitless. As the house they live in will be on fire if they don’t stop this.
WaPo would have never run the story “U.K. Spy Plane’s Close Call is Leaked” if they weren’t on the cusp of scared shitless.
Read between the lines. The ancient art of reading Soviet-era Pravda has finally found its place in America.
“Knee Deep in the Big Muddy” …but the captain says to push on…
This is like trying to do a U turn with an 18 wheeler on a dirt road. At this stage some crow will need to be eaten. Milley looks like patsy-in-chief but I don’t know if he can swallow that much blame and take that to his career’s grave. I feel like the only way out is to load Zelensky with blame and toss him overboard. I wonder if there are negs on the Bidens in a file in Kiev countering that strategy. No matter how you slice it, there is an urgent need for a narrative change.
I can only imagine the level of dispair after spending 8 yrs building a Ukie army of 500,000 using all of your superior military knowledge and superior intel being certain the dumb Russkies will be overwhelmed,now faced with this.The failure of HUBRIS!
I depends in my opinion. The US can force Zelensky to negotiate an ending of the hostilities. They just have to accept all terms. There is always the possibility to get out, so to speak.
Going forward like they do now doesn’t look like anyone has a problem with how things really are. They adjust and try to achive some positive progress, over and over.
Looking at what is going on on the ground, the US is still on the same path, namley to weaken Russia by their chosen proxy with no regards to what will happen to Ukraine. Something I would expect from an hegemon clinging to his power.
What are they scared of Larry? Which direction do they believe this is going? Someone with a good understanding of the situation sees something serious. I’m really curious what that is. You as well as Andrei Martyanov have been and are on point. I see things on a macro scale accelerating, but I feel like I’m missing something only experienced people know.
“…scared shitless about the direction of things.”
But do they have the Balls to do their Duty to uphold the Constitution against “enemies foreign and domestic” and Remove this illegitimate ‘administration’ and its neocon/dual citizen parasites, at Gunpoint?
I’m not holding my breath.
Or Kevin Bacon from Animal House.
Mr. Johnson, I was listening to another podcast today, and they put forward the idea that these documents were leaked by the powers that be on purpose. The reason he gave was that the powers that be have gotten that 100 billion + out of this war. They got the Nordstream pipelines blown up and Europe buying US natural gas at 4 times the price that they were getting from Russia. They have Europe de-industrialising and the factories moving to the US.
Also, with Ukraine losing this war in the near future, the powers that be can now move onto the big threat to them, China. I was wondering what your thoughts are on this. Thank you.
Really interesting analysis, thanks Larry. Checks out too.
Ukraine may have lost its AD on 9 March. The reasons I say that is after the last massive Russian missile strike on 9 March 2023, we immediately start seeing evidence of explosions consistent with the use of glide bombs. Twitter observers (eg ayden @squatsons but many others) claimed the first photographic evidence of a Russian glide bomb on 13 March 2023.
At the time, many observers were assuming the strikes were one off missile strikes and/or drones, but in hindsight it seems more likely they were glide bombs. They are total game-changers – the destruction they bring is astonishing – in particular, they are being used to hit concentrations of Ukrainian troops behind the front lines.
If the above is true, Ukraine has had no AD capability to defend against Russian aviation above ~20,000 feet since ~9 March – a longer period than many assume. Also, if Russia’s first use of glide bombs was ~10 March, it seems to indicate that the decision to use them was not random or sudden but was in fact pre-planned by the Russians, following elmimination of Ukraine’s AD by missiles/drones. If true, how sickening that this lethality has been hidden by the US and Kiev, as they murder innocent civilians forced at gunpoint to the frontlines.
The glide bombs are launched from the safety of Russia’s own AD systems just like the R37 air to air missiles they used to shoot down Ukrainian Mig 29s.
I’ve seen no evidence of them crossing into Ukrainian AD territory. When we see Russia using dumb bombs to target supply lines like they did in Syria then we’ll know for certain Ukraine is out of AD.
The whole idea of gliding bombs is to drop them while flying safe behind the front lines. Decision to use them is not random nor sudden, but a clear sign that they have finished setting up the production lines. Now they can use ’em as they make ’em.
Recent advancements in the Avdeevka area are directly related to use of those bombs. That is the most fortified area of this conflict, and it reqires big bombs to deal with. Air defenses prevented Russians from droping regular bombs on it.
https://archive.ph/fNYfu
Larry, have you seen this Washington Post article? Looks like they are closing in on the leaker.
Lol, yeah, sure, the “leaker’s” roommate is probably the J6 pipe bomber still on the loose.
The Washington Post?? One of Deep State’s main propaganda organs is running an extensively detailed news story on the investigation into the leak. LMFAO. Bullshit detector hits level 11.
All the media and government hype about the “leak” makes it embarrassingly obvious it’s a total psyops disinformation operation. It’s kind of like the murder suspect providing a lot of extraneous details and overacting.
Deep State needs to get their sponsor Brawndo advertising on their “leaked” classified documents.
I disagree. There is no pysops value in exposing the fact that the US is listening to the conversations of the South Koreans and the UN SEC GEN. Explain that to me.
Wasn’t all this already known through Edward Snowden leaks and American Telephone Tappers’ (AT&T) San Francisco central office fiber sniffers https://www.wired.com/2015/08/know-nsa-atts-spying-pact/? The U.S spies on everybody including its own citizens.
Exactly. Our vassal ROK— which our military bases have occupied for 70 years— is in on the “leaked” intel theater. And ‘in on’ in the sense that they were told how they should act/react.
Just google ‘South Korea’ and ‘spying’ and see all the
propagandanews stories by the loyal servants of Deep State— the mockingbird mainstream media— talking about it. That’s a clue it’s all a bullshit made up scheme.While I’ve had a career as an investigator (runs in the family back my NYPD homicide detective grandfather who worked Manhattan in the 30’s & 40’s) you don’t need to be a Columbo* to recognize the official story— “Oh no! Someone happened to leak exposé intel and just at the worst time!”— is embarrassing bullshit.
*For “Columbo” buffs the writers of the TV series based Columbo’s character on both G.K. Chesterton’s Father Brown in the “Father Brown Mysteries” and Porfiry Petrovich in Dostoevsky’s “Crime and Punishment https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20210909-why-the-world-still-loves-1970s-detective-show-columbo
In order to give it credibility.
Isn’t it possible that Andrei Martyanov’s idea that this was cooler, saner heads at the Pentagon wanting to create an Off Ramp, might be behind this.
Because Nuland, et al, are insane.
All they have in the toolbox is escalation.
After Russia defeats UKR/NATO, what, they just acquiesce and slink away?
This is my greatest fear that they will continue to double down.
I guess I’m just a worried…..
Blessings
L
What’s your take on the story it was a 20 something gov’t. disgruntled gamer in the military with access to the docs who was bragging to his fellow gamers for a month about having access?
I have just finished a first reading of the WaPo article. It reminds me of the ridicule and scorn poured on UK security services, when it was discovered how long and deep the Soviet penetration was by the “Cambridge Spy Ring” in the 50’s.
Now it seems that a Slumdog has been walking the stuff out the building. It sounds unbelievable, but don’t quote me.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/04/12/discord-leaked-documents/
The WaPo article which, for once , wasn’t behind a paywall made me spill my tea. It is claimed someone referred to as “OG” was walking out the door with these documents for MONTHS and talks of over 300 documents.
Is such a way as this to leak these documents even feasible?
OG does not fit the profile of the leaker, and if there was so much info on OG, I think (unless he was in a US non-friendly country), would be arrested already.
Also, given the tight connection between the IC and WP, why would they alert OG to head to Venezuela by splashing it all over the news?
Naked capitalism also thinks the article was AI aided or written.
Ah. Peacocking for the young gamer bro’s. Judge this scenario extremely credible, has much truthiness. Explains random quality of info dump.
Pick one:
1. U.S. media suddenly grows a pair, reports on actual news detrimental to D.C.’s interests
2. Spook agency loyal to US survival goes under deep cover on Discord, similar to QAnon, for months, to torpedo the Ukraine project.
3. Both.
Any of these are such low probability, I’m calling divine intervention.
“2. Spook agency loyal to US survival goes under deep cover on Discord, similar to QAnon,”
— Hold up there bucko! —
“loyal to US”
” similar to QAnon, ”
Are people actually this retarded?
I find the probabilities of you being a naive mark of the Q scam in the year 2023 to be extremely low.
(the untrue psyop choices give you away clearly and are extremely low effort to boot)
So…
You mean the same Qanon that was being pushed by MSM types in discord channels and YT? Because I personally busted out a whole slew of NBC types on the gaytriot poopbox who were running that scam during the time I was there attempting to deprogram the Q marks from the Q scammers machinations.
We literally set you reporters/NBC/ABC/CBS type employees up, and you took the bait and came for us publicly, Which was just another data point indicating how far the IC’s of this nation have fallen, from their already below sea level starting point.
No-one can possibly be so retarded that they believe the Q scammers were legit authority figures attempting to “save the day”. –
You dumb-asses pretending to fall for the Qscam to keep it going are no doubt full on MSM Progressive servants of the IC’s, that would Drag-queen Storytime kindergartners in a heartbeat, and you will all pay dearly in the great judgement that is approaching so fast that you cant even fathom the fact that God considers it already done.
If you are a naive as heck Q scammer Mark, then I want you to know the Q Scammers have pulled you into deception with multiple means, one of which is new age level deception, which places conformers to, and accepters of it’s blatant falsehoods squarely in the camp of the fallen.
If you are not actually a naive as heck mark, then I want you to know this —
I almost hate you absolute God hating perverts as much as I hate the anti-Christ.
It’s a pretty close race though.
For indeed you are all of the same fallen father.
I was unclear, my apologies.
My point: IF there were a spook agency loyal to US survival and not their own agenda, AND they set up a long-term undercover project on Discord, “similar to [how was done on] QAnon” [demonstrated capability] but for beneficial not detrimental purposes, AND they are torpedoing their own decades-long Ukraine project on purpose, THEN this would save the U.S. from escalating war with a nuclear power and be a blessing to the country.
And pigs can fly, sometimes.
Nonetheless, if Larry’s analysis is correct, parts of this–the long-term deep hangout–seem closest to the truth.
Agree with you that confusion about sexual identities does a profound disservice to our country. Did not follow QAnon messages so I have no direct expertise in this matter; will yield to yours. Sounds seriously tough.
The more important topic is someone creating an off-ramp to a stable situation that saves lives, saves us from war, and saves us from escalating to nukes. Creating a stable situation is going to be a profound challenge. People are going to have to transform entire belief structures, and change what they’ve built their lives around. Big shocks, and I’m not seeing any American leader with clear understanding of the situation.
“I was unclear, my apologies.
My point: IF there were a spook agency loyal to US survival and not their own agenda, AND they set up a long-term undercover project on Discord – etc…”
HA!
It seems it is I that owe you an apology!
My apology sir.
Yeah, I spent a couple of years watching grifters scam lil ol ladies who reminded me of my own naive mother who falls for every thing any politician/scammer says, even after they break their word.
Makes me mad to this day when I think about all the trusting old people who genuinely believe most people are good (they are not) that got scammed by that Q crowd to the point of sitting back and doing nothing in their communities politically (such as running for local offices), except for purchasing the scammers hats and t-shirts and watching hours upon hours of gaslighting new age filled BS.
I should not have exploded on you so.
My bad. If I could delete/correct it I would.
When was the last time your 3-letters agencies told you the truth? (few years of thinking –> never). So, why would be this time different? The best way to tell a lie is mixing it with truths and partial truths. The Big Serge ( https://t.me/fred33flint/462 ) “an American citizen seems to have simply walked out with highly classified documents, which were then permitted to sit on a Minecraft Discord server for a month without anyone being the wiser.”
Let’s go back to cui bono ( “to whom is it a benefit?”). The Russians if in possession of this type of info, would shut up and act on it, so the Russians are out. So, there is somebody in the NATO, a lone wolf. LOL Reminds you of something?
Here is the difference between Slavs and the rest (Franks, Germans, Saxons, so on). Most of the Slavs don’t trust anything, anybody, and any situation. There is something in their hunter blood. They can resist the hunting urges for years, BUT if you wake up the bears and the wolves, you better made peace with your maker.
If we go back to what Putin said it was very limited, denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine, and NO changing Russian economy to a war economy (one thing that is overlooked in his ideas)
This time my guesstimate is that they will destroy London, UK.
“Everything to see here.”
The documents are beginning to appear genuine. The Pentagon has been counting dead bodies 24/7. They know how horrifying and in every detail what the Russian Bear is capable of and the next level as well. The military destruction is mind bending for the commanders who will be ordered to fight the next stupid and un winnable war for Washington. That would be Taiwan or maybe Hungary come to think of it.
Body bags coming back to the US on a container ship. Don’t think so.
Meanwhile..
Prince Harry in a Nazi SS uniform partying on.
British troops in Afghanistan doin the Nazi salute.
Prince William and Kate hobnobbing with Nazi Zee in Poland. Gushing smiles all round. The photo op that ushers in a English only Republic, and nobody will care.
Anglo-Saxon twofur and then they were gone.
“The documents are beginning to appear genuine.”
That still doesn’t answer if they were Leaked/Hacked (unauthorized disclosure) or Released for Disinfo/Propaganda purposes.
Many possible Motives for either scenario can be seen as valid, but IMO, the idea that this “Leak” is some kind of “whistleblower action” seems unlikely; the Q-tard/White Hats meme has run its course, and watching the reaction of the Pols/MIC/Spooks becoming Hysterical makes me think this is a Psyop that has more than one Facet or Purpose.
Yesterday (12 April) WTOP “The Voice of the Swamp” was running with “the Leaker is part of a Chat/Gamer Group that is made up of White/Christian/Gun Owners” Now, who would be likely to ‘push’ this Narrative? For what purpose? If they hand up some Patsy and run with an anti-white/christian/gun owner meme across all .gov and MSM platforms, that would tell me that the ‘Leak’ was intentional and the response pre-planned. The whole thing may have Nothing to Do with country 404, it’s just the framework used for other political goals.
Floyd Austin and Rainbow Milley – the Bogus Brothers.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/04/13/politics/pentagon-leaked-documents-military-base/index.html
Nice Larry, thank you for your intel into the matter.
“And in underground workshops across eastern Ukraine, soldiers are using 3D printers and recycling unexploded ordnance to create alternative munitions.”
Is it really possible to use 3D printers to make ammunition for artillery?
Also, I heard that in the documents, it also said that US may not be able to defend against China DF-27? Is that why US is trying to change tone now that Taiwan is not ready for defending against China? Due to the US being unable to defend itself and showing itself in bad light, and also that it may need China help to save its economy?
Artillery – unlikely, Grenades, AP n AT mines – possible
The 3D printer sentence has a yuge amount to unpack, all sorts of possibilities none of which are positive for Kiev.
My wild guess is these soldiers are repacking old explosives into difficult-to-trace landmines. 3D printing is mostly for plastic parts.
3D printing is also a incredibly slow process.
It’s some nightmare cottage industry scenario – unwashed conscripts huddled in a dark underground 1950s bomb shelter trying to assemble land mines using primitive hand tools on wooden benches.
The only items missing to complete the scene would be black and white striped prison garb and snarling German Shepards
“Is it really possible to use 3D printers to make ammunition for artillery?”
No. What both sides are doing, is making improvised ammo to be dropped from quadcopters. They 3D print fins and attach them to explosive devices (usually 30mm VOG-17 grenades, used for AGS-17).
Can anyone define the term pre- planned? One can only plan or not plan. Think about it.
It’s a poor term. Best guess it means planned in advance i.e., «this terrorist attack today was planned months in advance.« If you don’t know how long ago it was planned, you just say «planned in advance« – or «pre-planned.«
You clearly still respect the English language and simple logic. Nice catch.
Thank you for that!!!!! This use of made up words drives me mad. Oh, and I don’t pre-heat my oven either.
George Carlin had a bit where he asked how could someone “preboard” a plane.
Thank you for your take on this Larry. It is interesting. What will happen on the battlefield has more or less been known since before the first shot was fired in this conflict. Russia doesn´t lose in places where it counts. What makes it more interesting is the effect on NATO itself, in it´s own backyard.
NATO forces have always fought at a distance; far away from their geographical base. They could always cover a loss because it was happening someplace else. Not now. That bubble of obfuscation has been, for the first time, critically burst. The disaster is occurring on their doorstep and there is nothing they can do about it, at all. Eyes will be confronted in full daylight by the results, which will be abject defeat. There is no way back from this and I agree with Larry that people are not just afraid, they are terrified out of the senses back in the Occidental control booths.
There will be a library worth of books, articles and opinions in circulation in the future about what happened so, there is nothing that little ole´ me can lay out in any detailed form here. But, what I can mention here is that the reaction to this failure and demise of NATO power will be devastating for NATO itself and the populations of the countries with NATO membership. They are screwed. It is the reaction to that result that most interests me. I am patiently waiting for it to manifest, once Russia is done tearing things up.
My best to all,
John
I don’t want to insult the intelligence of our host, if there is a reciprocity, don’t insult our intelligence either.
We all know that since antiquity a large part of wars was won by deceiving the enemy. So, fair playing is not an option in a war.
The Ukrainian army is a skeleton moved by western wires. If there is group of 50-100 soldiers, in the next hour half of them will meet Bandera, and play NAZI in heaven/hell (depending what they’ve did in life). So, having a concentration of troops is not an option, either, since ‘energize’ and beam me up Scotty is not there yet.
The upcoming offensive went from winter to spring and now to summer. In the main time, Russians got the danger seriously and built a 70+ km long deep hole/dig (out of 120+ KM), so no freaking tank can pass unless they can fly.
The ‘leaked Pentagon’ documents are not worth the paper were printed on, because they are nothing else but plants to show an Ukrainian army that doesn’t exist but on these paper.
In the main time if you follow the Russian MD, they went from the regular 300 killing per day to 600+ (only confirmed deaths)
Think Russia like a drilling head with large diamonds that will never stop DRILLING
The west is so stupid they can’t even fathom facing a trained Russian military force. The Russian military force is intact.
Think about 14 months of killing was done ONLY with contract military, the private Wagner Troops, and the occasional voluntary.
And that emptied all the western arsenals without Russia going over ww1 setup
Something is certainly up with US VSHORAD capability and who knows what other air defense assets . Just over a week ago, the Italian Min. of Defense issued an accelerated high priority program to replace the current inventory of American-made VSHORAD Stingers with a nationalised one under the auspices of the local branch of European missile giant MBDA. According to defense sector reports, the missile could in part be based on the French Mistral which is also produced by MBDA. Are we sensing a change in the tide and the beginning to ween Europe or at least a part of it off the US MIC????????????? Macron’s recent trip to China, his deal for Airbus passenger planes to the Chinese and his post visit statements are very revealing of what’s going on behind the scenes.
In my opinion given that everything about the US-run neocon system – also called the Rules Based Order – nowadays is focused on fakery, deceit, diversion, lie, corruption… then we can conclude with 100% certainty that this new so-called revelations – top secret doc. falls in the same category. Moreover, very likely it was done by a small group of non-government contractors, mostly young and woke type gay, lesbian, trans, satan lover … individuals without any serious knowledge on military matters. It also did cost the American tax payers millions of dollars for that survey and the money went straight into the pockets – through back channels – of the person that was given the project in the first place vis a vis connections at the top. There are a lot of reasons to believe this doc. is just another MSM PR BS by corrupt Neocon military establishment. For example, what kind of top secret doc. during time war tries painting in full color – as in children story books – with childish maps in color, on what’s happening in Europe? It even paints Russia a different color to indicate – who knows to whom? – that look Russia is here. Is it believable, the very top US Army commanders don’t know where Russia is on a map without someone pointing it to them? In time of War, highly secret military info is always done in codes so as to make it more difficult for the enemy to read. If this was a very serious military secret information gathering why then everybody is certain that they just wrote whatever the Ukrainians told them? There’s no excuse for that. Also most of the info. is very elementary and childlike for instance about NATO personnel active in Ukraine. It doesn’t say anything about Polish military presence there, when everybody know there are hundreds if not thousands of KIA/wounded polish soldiers using Ukronazi uniforms. Does that mean the surveyors tried to mislead the very top US Army bosses that there are no Polish soldiers present in Donbass?
Is it credible that our top military commanders can’t find Russia on a map without having someone point it out to them? I’m afraid the answer is a resounding YES presently. They are drawn from a nation, after all, willing to send hundreds of billions of dollars worth of military equipment to “defend” countries whose simple geographic location is a complete mystery to 98%+ of its citizen and most of their ” elected” officials. (I remember that in February 2022 hundreds of “spontaneous” rallies happened across the US in support of “poor little Ukraine.” The suckers who participated knew nothing about Ukraine, not even whether the blue or yellow of its flag — conveniently provided for the “spontaneous” outpouring of support — should be up or down. There was one of these pathetic dog and pony shows on a bitterly cold day in my New England hometown where hundreds showed up, their credulity shielding them from the elements, evidently.)
In the meantime,
The spring “counter-offensive” of the Ukrainians has been postponed again, the next date is summer.
The new figure of American intelligence on Ukrainian losses is between 124,000 and 131,000 people. This refers to the dead and wounded, which means that the number is significantly reduced.
The US is planning sanctions against Hungary after the Hungarian foreign minister visited Moscow two days ago.
I read yesterday, I can’t find where, about a total split between the US intelligence community and Biden’s advisers.
To be continued…
Civil war among the US elites is nothing new. During the Syrian terrorist operation, the State Dept funded one group of IS goons and had them fight another set of goons run by the Pentagon. Taking a cue from Sun Tsu, Russia has said, ‘Why stop it? Let America’s right hand fight its left.’
Whichever way you look at it these leaks have certainly thrown the cat amongst the pigeons.
Many people have entrenched views and nothing will change their minds about anything. Jack Devine’s WSJ article comes to mind:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/defeat-russia-then-make-friends-putin-ukraine-beijing-national-security-peace-war-territorial-dispute-d092bb28?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
Some believe the leaks to be genuine but that camp is divided. One argument suggests it was a disaffected insider wanting to debunk the many lies that have been told and help bring an end to the war, or at least to prevent the useless slaughter of young men that a ‘Spring offensive’ from Ukraine will necessarily be.
Another idea suggests that the Ukrainians’ manifest weakness shown in the leaks argues for an increase in western support to ensure they beat the Russians (the Jack Devine view), and that perhaps the leak was from someone like Victoria Nuland looking to push for more weapons for Ukraine.
Others suggest that the leaks are fake and the whole thing is a disinformation/psy-op campaign from someone else – an argument Larry J firmly rejects.
The majority seems to accept that the leaks are real, but the debate rages on.
Personally I think the big picture suggests that Ukraine is a dead duck and the leaks demonstrate that US leadership has been caught lying about it, a bit like MacNamara did in Vietnam (thanks Ray McGovern). The even bigger picture shows that the ‘collective west’ is in deep trouble on multiple levels and that the Ukraine conflict has had a kind of “Wizard of Oz” moment looking behind the curtain, or perhaps a ‘the Emperor has no clothes’ moment in respect of western industrial and economic power when compared with China and Russia.
We seem to have reached a pivot point in history and Macron’s illuminating visit with Xi, followed by his DeGaulle-like statements made on the plane ride home, associated with Ursula’s humiliation in Beijing adds punctuation and spice to what has been a fascinating week.
I will watch with interest to see if Analena Baerbock will fare any better on her Beijing visit.
All roads seem to be leading there.
I think Xi plans to send Analena back to Germany by bus.
Artillery – unlikely, Grenades, AP n AT mines – possible
It is difficult to judge politicians today. As a child, you look up to the world of grown ups and think that these people are intelligent and know what they are doing. Growing older, I could see that to become a politician, you have to be stupid. If you are intelligent, you study physics or chemistry. Politicians have a social intelligence. They manage to oust their competitors. But they hardly understand hard facts. They assume that you could change E=MC2 when you discuss with the people who claim this, and that it is all a matter of people, not of things.
Politicians master groups, but not logistics. They need the nerds to do the work for them. They make the population work for them. Go to war for them.
So, politicians are masters of manipulation of the masses. And if you want to counter them, you may come up with facts, but what you really should say is: You are manipulated.
Ask a man on the street whether he thinks that he is manipulated. He will say no, because he is perfectly manipulated.
These documents show that a manipulation is hard now. It is too obvious that it is a weakness of the USA to loose the documents.
Anyway: Tell people to grow up. Become an adult!
Everybody could do the job of the US president! And 90 percent could do it better.
Excellent, Roland.
Living a free, adult, life is difficult. Most people prefer the illusion of freedom: being able to vote for their masters. Imagine black slaves in America thinking they were free because they could vote for the overseer who managed the plantation!!
With Belingcat being the group that “found” the Discord link this whole thing is Definitely deliberate. For those that don’t know Belingcat is the US/UK funded front office and propaganda arm of MI6. Everything they do is because MI6 tell them to – its always fake.
This means that:
The “documents” are definitely genuine
The “documents” have definitely been altered before release to suit an agenda
The leak is deliberate
We don’t know the objective of the leak.
“… soldiers are using 3D printers and recycling unexploded ordnance to create alternative munitions.”
—
Uh, OK.
Trained EOD guys have a healthy respect for the dangers of handling UXOs, and they still get blowed up from time to time … I doubt your everyday Petro or Mykola is out in the trenches scooping them up to see what they can cobble together.
https://www.vesti.ru/article/3300974
Discord subscribers told who “leaked” the Pentagon documents
The secret Pentagon documents leaked to the Web were obtained by a man who worked at a military base. Subscribers of Discord, a social network for gamers, told The Washington Post about this, where they claim that a mysterious informant with the nickname “OG” entered into correspondence with them.
OG claimed to be working at a secure facility where cell phones and other gadgets are banned, Rossiya 1 TV channel reports . On condition of anonymity, the friends of the informant told reporters that they know the real name of OG, as well as the place where he lives and works, but chose not to disclose this information.
“I would like to keep OG’s identity a secret because I care about him like a member of my family,” the source said. “He is not interested in assisting foreign intelligence in their fight against the United States or other countries. It’s just a young charismatic man who loves nature, believes in God, loves racing and shooting guns.”
Simplicius 76 in his latest sitrep https://substack.com/notes/post/p-112715127 reports how the MQ-9 Reaper spy drone that was downed near Crimea has been brought almost intact to Russia’s KRET institute, where all ins and outs of its electronics, optics and so on were taken apart and fully analyzed in its functioning. This hugely advances Russia’s EW electronic warfare which jams the electronics of the opponent. Simplicius 76 reports how Russia is jamming American-made smart bombs, with even the possibility of frying fuses on far distance by microwaves. 4 out of 9 smart bombs dropped by UA planes were turned into dumb blanks because of Russia’s jamming power.
I may have been the only person to see the genius in the Russian pilot’s masterful downing of the MQ-9.Shooting it down with a missle would have been the western solution.
With regards to Ukraine exaggerating Russian loss and understating theirs… in other words, the US is being played like a piano by a dick. 🙄
Komsomolskaya Pravda claims to have found another, even more important Snowden https://www.kp.ru/daily/27489/4747771/
Ex-fighter of the “Foreign Legion of Ukraine” John McIntyre: There were a thousand of us at the training ground in Yavoriv, and after the first battle there were 150
An anti-fascist American infiltrated the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, collected valuable information and fled to Russia
This story threatens to overshadow the “Snowden case”. John McIntyre is a young American of anti-fascist views. In the spring of 2022, he enlisted in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion and soon ended up on the front lines. Every minute he could be exposed, every day he risked being killed by a stray shell. Many details of John’s odyssey still cannot be mentioned, so as not to substitute Russia’s supporters on the other side. But something can be said. How foreign swindlers collected money through the Network “to protect Ukraine” — and how the “defenders” themselves committed war crimes. The 26-year-old guy told about this on the air of Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda.
“HERE IS A HELMET, RIDE TO PROTECT Kyiv”
John, let’s start over. Who are you, where are you from?
— I am originally from Mobile, Alabama, but grew up in Tennessee. When I was 17, I signed up for the US Army, served two years in Fort Bliss, Texas, as a mortar man. After the army, he worked at factories: plastic, casting, aluminum, then – a welder, a car salesman, a packer …
— A typical deep people from the US Bible Belt. And in the spring of 2022, you decided on a desperate act …
– At first I wanted to come and fight on the side of Russia, but I thought: “Damn, I’m alone. I can just explode and die.” Then I decided that if I went to the other side, I could gather more information and help the Russian army more. Discussed with friends. They said, “No, this is suicide. Don’t do that. You will never succeed.” But here I am, sitting in your studio and talking to you.
Was it easy for an American to join the Ukrainian Foreign Legion?
“Just like going through the door. This was done through the Ukrainian Embassy in the United States. I, of course, brought them documents and certificates of military service: I thought that they would need to verify my identity and all that. But, surprisingly, the Ukrainians just looked at the passport – and you’re done. All I had to do was sign [on the contract].
– It turns out that absolutely any person, even a former criminal, even a drug addict, even registered in the “fool” can enlist in the Ukrainian Legion…
– I arrived in Ukraine on March 17, 2022, just when the battle for Kyiv was going on. And the officers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine immediately told everyone: “Do you want to go to Kyiv now? Here’s a gun, here’s a helmet, sign it here, get in the car.” But none of my group volunteered. Our guys said, “It’s just suicide.”
SELECTED RABBLE
– And then what happened?
– Four days before I arrived in Ukraine, five Russian missiles flew to the base of the Foreign Legion in Yavoriv. According to my information, they killed about 20 soldiers, none of whom were foreigners. But the Ukrainians for some reason said that “The Foreign Legion has been destroyed.”
– Probably, they wanted to knock out and cut a new tranche from Western partners …
– After that, the base of the “Foreign Legion” was moved near Rivne. We lived in a tent city. Food was sometimes bad, I remember sometimes we only ate chak-chak three times a day. They also ate wild boar, pork, or whatever they had there. The shower truck came every three days. We stayed there for about a month.
— How many Americans and foreigners were in your group?
“Before the attack on Yavorov, there were at least a thousand people in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion. But as soon as the rockets arrived, everyone started talking: “To hell with it all.” Many went to other formations or went home. As for the Americans, I would say there were about a hundred of them … Well, I didn’t count them all by their heads.
Who were these foreigners?
“I would say a pair of each creature. Of course, there were neo-Nazis. One of those, you know, who see the flags of Ukrainian radicals and think: “Oh, this is heaven for me.” There were also just brainwashed people who came to fight for freedom and democracy; there were “dogs of war”, there were also seekers of profit, swindlers.
— Fleeing from the law in their native country?
– No, I mean those scammers who use social networks to post posts like: “Hallowe, I’m fighting for Ukraine, send me money.” In our group there was one such, with the callsign Sam Cowboy. I lay on my couch all day long, logging into [short video posting app] on my phone, collecting donations from gullible Internet idiots. Posted vidos: “girls, wow, I’m in Ukraine.”
“People were driving for fun.
– Yes, they come to the “Ukrainian Foreign Legion”, they are given uniforms and weapons, they sit there and get hold of money, because allowances are dripping. Then they spend money on bars, restaurants, prostitutes. Of course, there were normal people next to me, but there were also a lot of bad guys. I met people from the Irish Republican Army (it is essentially a terrorist organization), from international gangs and mafia structures.
NATO INSTRUCTORS
– Go ahead. It means that you underwent combat training in Rovno.
– We all knew how to use only NATO weapons, so we had to study the old Soviet RPGs, Kalashnikovs … well, in general, everything. The training was so-so, lasted about a month, after which we were sent to the front line.
– Who were your instructors – from NATO?
– Officially, no. Before that, of course, they served in the NATO armies, but now they were either on vacation or retired. However, now in Poland and Western Ukraine there are NATO officers, in the sense, real ones, no longer vacationers. There are scouts, there are intelligence officers.
Have you talked to any of them?
– No. As I understand it, NATO instructors are there to train Ukrainians in complex technologies, such as the M1 Abrams tank, the HIMARS missile system, and so on.
Who taught you and your group?
– You won’t believe it, it was a Bulgarian. The foreign legion was mixed, from people from all over Europe, North and South America.
What languages were taught?
There were four languages: English, Spanish, French. Speakers of Slavic languages were brought together in one group, where education was conducted in Ukrainian and Russian.
Did the Ukrainians pay you?
– For being in the combat zone paid about three thousand dollars a month. Outside of hostilities – about a thousand dollars.
– Well, that is, when these foreigners call themselves “volunteers and fighters for democracy”, then this is not so, they are just mercenaries.
FIRST DEATH
– When did you get to the front line?
— It was April 21, 2022. We arrived in Kharkov. The Ukrainians were in a panic, the Russians at that time were only 15 kilometers away.
We settled down on the top floor in a huge old building of the Soviet paper mill. Every time I went upstairs, probably the tenth floor, I thought, “Damn it, I’m about to have a heart attack.” It’s funny that all this running was in vain – on April 28 we moved to another location, to the village of Molodova – not far from Kharkov, on the Seversky Donets River.
At that time there were no Russians there. As I was told, when they were there, they simply arrived, appointed a new head of the village administration, got into a jeep and left. But when we got there, no one was there.
Then on May 4, four days before my birthday, we went to a village in the north – Stary Saltov. It was a gray area where both sides were hitting. When we approached the place where we were supposed to create a strong point, we saw a “grad” rocket sticking out of the ground. That was the first time I got into a real fight.
We hid in the trenches, and then we heard these terrible sounds. The Russians started shelling us with “hail”, and then we had our first loss: a guy named Foglar from Holland. 10-15 minutes after the shelling, our sergeant ordered to withdraw. Of course, I didn’t argue with him. We returned to Molodovaya. As I remember now, it was May 5, 2022, the first time I saw someone die.
— How many people were in the Ukrainian Foreign Legion at that time?
– We had platoons “Alpha”, “Bravo” and “Charlie” – about 600 fighters in total. I was in Bravo Platoon. After the first battle, Alpha practically fell apart because they had disagreements with the commander. He had orders to stay in Molodova. But the commander wanted to become a politician in the future, not a dead man, that is, to PICTURE a Ukrainian hero, and not to fight for real.
What was the commander’s last name?
– We just called him Bogdan, without a last name, and considered him an idiot. As a result, in order to get rid of him, he was sent somewhere for promotion.
Now look at the numbers: there were about 1,000 of us “foreign legionnaires” at the training ground in Yavoriv. After Yavorov, the number decreased to 600. A month later, after the first battle and the collapse of the Alpha platoon, it was already down to 300. And then, a week later, the number of people decreased from 300 to about 150. And these are not dead – these are fugitives. Americans, Canadians and other guys with experience in NATO armies, with excellent equipment, saw some Russian bombs and just ran home.
– Having broken the contract with the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
– Yes, people said: “To hell with everything, I’m going home.” It is good that Ukrainians allow foreigners to leave if they want.
EXECUTION OF RUSSIAN PRISONERS
Have you witnessed war crimes?
– After the battles near Kharkov and the actual collapse of the “Foreign Legion” I ended up in the Ukrainian nationalist battalion “Carpathian Sich”. And there were three guys there – Rico Chavez, Nazar Kuzmin (I think that’s the last name) and a dude named Aurelio. They executed Russian prisoners of war, filmed a video and photo of the execution and showed it to everyone.
How many Russians did they kill?
Two or three, I don’t remember. I don’t like to look at such things. It was in August or July 2022, a month before I ended up in the Karpatskaya Sich. They did this because a relative of Nazar, also a fighter, died, and one of the Russian Telegram channels posted photos – they say, another mercenary was denazified. Then, in response, Nazar and his friends made a video and photo of the killed Russian prisoners of war and accompanied this with a Nazi salute.
Another war crime happened when I was in the “Foreign Legion”: we were ordered to put on civilian clothes when we entered the village of Molodova. All medics were ordered to remove their medical chevrons. At the same time, many fighters and weapons were transported in ambulances and civilian vehicles. You won’t hear about these things anywhere. For example, on my first day in Ukraine, we were placed in the basement of a school, and there were civilians upstairs.
– Refugees?
– Yes, they looked like gypsies, or maybe they just looked so skinned. The Armed Forces thought: if the Russians fired rockets and hit the school where the citizens were, it would kill them and then Kiev would be able to say: “Hey, look, the Russians bombed the school with refugees.” Without saying that we, foreign mercenaries, were in the basement.
The same thing happened when we entered the villages. Civilians lived in all the houses there. We thought it was wrong, because if the Russians bombed us, ordinary people would die. But for the most part, Ukrainians didn’t care.
– Ukrainian authorities did not evacuate citizens?
– No. In Eastern Ukraine, the “zapadentsy” do not consider local residents to be Ukrainians, they look at them as “Russian occupiers”. You must have heard what they call them: “orcs”, “pigs”… The nationalists want to expel the Russians, replace them with “real Ukrainians” and eradicate the Russian language, which, by the way, has already happened.
— Have you personally communicated with the local population?
– In Kharkov, half of the population was pro-Ukrainian. And the other half – well, you didn’t even have to ask them. It was enough to look into their eyes. It was possible to understand by the eyes who hated us and who was for Kyiv. We were also told: “Don’t take bread from your grandmother, she can plant poison, you can’t trust anyone.” So Kharkov was divided in half. But when I got to the village of Stavki near Donetsk, there were already only pro-Russian residents there: no one spoke to us, no one was happy with us.
How did you manage to get out of there?
– I went to Moldova, I had some contacts there that helped me move here, to Russia. Crossing the demarcation line directly would be suicidal. If the front line near Kharkov is hell, then in Donbass it is HELL.
“RUSSIA IS BETTER”
Let’s talk about America. Many believe that the 2020 election has been stolen.
– Under Obama and Biden, who was then vice president, battles began in Ukraine, on which the elites made good money. Trump was ready to provide assistance to the Ukrainians only if they did not violate the Minsk agreements. Therefore, it was important that Biden win the election – he was ready to provide assistance at all in any case. The goal is to get the resources of Eastern Ukraine. After all, Donbass has always been considered the heart of Russia because of coal and natural gas. And Kyiv will have to pay for the lend-lease under which the West supplies weapons.
But now you are in Russia.
— Oh, that’s amazing! It’s so beautiful here. The infrastructure in Russia is much better than in America. And I want to say the same about Russia, and Poland, and Ukraine, which, by the way, are former Soviet countries. America is a dump. You have electric trains that connect big cities with all villages. You can take a train and go anywhere in the country, it’s amazing! We do not have metro and trains of this level. You also have free medicine, which is amazing, we have nothing like this in America, although we consider ourselves the first in the world.
– What are your plans for the future?
“I will stay here until the authorities grant me citizenship. I will look for work and wait for our American revolution. As soon as it begins, I will return home and help train the rebels: how to fight, how to shoot mortars.
– There were cases when Africans fought on the side of Russia in the NVO. Yes, not so many, units, but there were. I think this proves that we are fighting in Ukraine against white racism and fascism.
– Of course, it’s amazing: here in Russia, I see the peaceful existence of people of all races and cultures. I grew up in the southeast, in Alabama and Tennessee, and lived in Texas for a while while in the military. When the whites saw a Mexican or a Muslim there, they muttered: look, one of “them.” But here the opposite is true – Russians treat people of other races as equals.
Thanks Larry for all your knowledge and sharing it with us.
Thank you for this fascinating article on this young man.
I have a Russian friend who I played tennis with regularly. She had served in the military and left Russia in the 90s. When I first met her she didn’t talk much about her Russian life. A few years later she was so excited to tell me she was going home to see her family for the first time. When she returned she was in a state of shock about Russia and how developed it was how Putin was creating a miracle. She then sent me a video about Putin who he was and what he had done for his country. I am sorry to say I do not remember what it was called. I will say it changed my thinking. I later received a long article and video, about the Famine in Russia. My Great grandfather was asked to go and help, the result is several of these men stayed in Russia. My relative did not but all came home having great respect for the Russians.
Assuming that the Wapo story is close to the truth:
The documents are real.
The documents were taken out by a disgruntled employee.
There were no Russians involved (Lipscombe).
It was not an attempt by the neocons to ramp up the war (Schafer).
It was not an attempt by the State Department to stop the war (The Duran).
All the conspiracy theories by the usual “alternative” suspects were wrong. But be damn sure their proponents won’t learn a thing.
Larry was right in pretty much every aspect.
Occam won again.
Correction: DoD, not State Department.
can u tell me what these documents are trying to show??
we already knew all this stuff from open source coverage (ukr out of ammo, whos losing, whos dying) – as its known already then why bother to leak it or psyop it or whatever.
the only question is what the leak or psyop is trying to accomplish??
example – the SyHersch article on the pipes. We all already knew who did it and we all knew why. What was only partially known was the when and what specific resources – which SyH reported on providing something useful.
so whats the useful here? there’s no signal in this noise…
If you believe the Wapo story there was no psyop, no intentional leak, no political motive. It was just a guy with a security clearance who wanted to brag/inform/educate his online friends. Then some other kid saw the documents and spread them further, probably because he thought that was a cool thing to do.
Everything else is pure fantasy (if you believe Wapo).
To be clear, I think Larry’s laid out the most likely provenance. But it took a while to get attention for these documents. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn the Russians helped
That’s a fair point. Allegedly there were both Russians and Ukrainians in the group.
may be the Seymour Hersh source the leaked intelligence papers and the damage control operations, are people of US stablishment very worried about how things are going?
This is curious. Look at lower left source on the map: UNHCR/WhiteHouse.gov. Then look at Crimea.
If map is legit, have they recognized Crimea as part of Russia?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FtiDcCMXwAUVN7W?format=jpg&name=medium
The one thing these “leaked” intelligence reports have not reported on is the combat readiness of the U.S. military to fight a war, let alone World War III, starting in the Ukraine.
The problem remains. The Russians cannot completely de-Nazify the Ukraine when the west is training Ukrainian military by the thousands in the United States, the UK, Germany, and elsewhere.
Even when the Ukrainian military is wiped out in the Ukraine, there will still be a “highly” trained Ukrainian military, or at least highly exposed to the kinds of NATO military gear they did not have in the Ukraine.
So, what then? The west has spent a lot of time and worthless money on deluding themselves (psyching themselves), into another yet another in an endless string of direct conflicts, and another World War. Mainly, in promoting the belief that Russia, the Russian military, and the Russian people are rubes.
The main game plan for the west (mainly the United States), is to come to the aid of the “Ukrainian Martyrs.” The United States will bring along these “Ukrainian Freedom Fighters,” these “Ukrainian Legionnaires” with them as fighting interpreters.
It takes time to ship tanks, fighting vehicles, equipment, mobile hospitals, support material, munitions and such to “the front.” The front, in this case is Poland and Romania being used as forward staging areas. Just like in the UK during World War II. Just like in Iraq for both Gulf Wars.
The nukes are already there. Have been for a while now.
You can fly an army in almost over-night. They can man these vehicles and be ready to fight inside a week.
That is another war altogether. Where those bases in Poland are legitimate targets for hypersonic missiles.
At that point i’d expect to see the Chinese getting involved too.
I can’t see it happening. It would be political suicide. The reason these proxy wars are popular with neocons is because Western servicemen are not on the ground in large numbers.
Outside the crackpot Baltic states, there is zero public support for WW111.
“Where those bases in Poland are legitimate targets for hypersonic missiles.”
Then why haven’t the Russians gone after them? If Russia and China were assembling a stockpile of tanks and military vehicles in Mexico, to be used against the United States, do you think the US would just lie down and take it?
“It [World War III] would be political suicide.”
You are assuming politics matters. Politics only matters when the politicians fear the people. That’s been fixed here in the United States by the takeover of the government by entrenched, professional politicians, elected for life — and rigged elections.
“Outside the crackpot Baltic states, there is zero public support for WW111.”
You’ve left out Poland and the UK. Germany is curled up in corner in some kind of fugue state. Germany has been declared war on by somebody who hasn’t even got the balls to tell them they blew up their $20-billion-dollar critical civilian infrastructure.
points 1 -3
1 Poland is not in Ukraine. Russia are not going to initiate a wider war.
2 a land war in Europe with Western troops is not going to be a vote winner in any Western country. That’s why Ukrainians are being used after all!
3 See above. The UK is not interested in boots on the ground in any number, and Poland is already playing a dangerous – and losing – game. Contrary to the views of many Poles. I don’t see the current regime in Poland getting re-elected.
As per the Daily Telegraph over in Blighty, they are quoting that the leaker is probably (implied) a Trump supporter.
In addition to being a very naughty boy, he is of course an anti-semite.
“The man who leaked a cache of confidential US intelligence files about the war in Ukraine is reported to be a young man who loves guns and “works on a military base”.
The man, known as “OG”, was in his early to mid-twenties and was a member of a invitation-only Discord group of around two dozen who were “united by their mutual love of guns, military gear and God,” according to a report by The Washington Post.
The newspaper interviewed a teenage fellow member of the group, who gave details of the man who reportedly worked on a “military base” and shared photographs and videos. He declined to give the man’s name or the state in which he lives.
In one video, a man identified as ‘OG’ was at a shooting range with a rifle, and “yells a series of racial and antisemitic slurs into the camera, then fires several rounds at a target”.”
Was he a scuba diving yachtsman who happened to be vacationing in Europe last year?
Okay, okay, time to blow his cover. The guy’s name is Ollie Gonads, NRA Life Member, one-time founder of Citizens For Life and Tea Party locals, RadTrad Catholic, and fanatically devoted Trump supporter. (Oh, and did I mention he refused the Pfizer jabs, secretly reads Dostoyevsky and Pushkin, and listens to the music of Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninoff, and…. dare I say this?… even Prokofiev?!?! Ominously, someone told me it’s also rumored he flies the Stars and Stripes upsidedown at his backwoods cabin in northern Virginia!
Larry, with the deepest of respect I urge you to turn your back from the Kremlin. It is plainly obvious that you are on Putin’s payroll and have been spewing hateful, anti Western propaganda.
I have it on good authority from no lesser than the esteemed retired general, Ben Hodges, that Russia is on the ropes and will be running out of ammunition in ten days!
🙂
Hodges has been AWOL for some time. Until recently he was wheeled onto the UK media to announce that Ukraine would take Crimea and the Donbas “before the summer”.
Unsurprisingly, he has been keeping quiet of late.
As has the Northern Irish fella, an adviser to Ukraine, who has been on Talk Radio every Monday morning for a year to assure the British public that Ukraine are winning the war.
It’s going to be fascinating watching these jokers walk back from their absurd disinformation campaigns.
It’ll all be memory holed.
Since Ukraine has been run for quite some time by a TV Production Company called KVARTAL95 I find it hard to imagine there will not be a second season…………after all assorted politicians and druggie actors have rushed to audition as guest stars………
I believe that even if Russia occupies the production facilities the ZElensky Show will continue as CGI
So i saw Antony Shaffer on the judge’s show theorizing that the leak was from really high level, Nuland was mentioned as an aside and Shaffer said the leak was from someone on her level. Then I see that Mark Milley is retiring.
This has a 20 July feeling about it. The military went along as long as things were going well, but now things are starting to turn bad and the lunatics in the White House keep talking about the Final Victory and pouring coals on the fire. This could be the Pentagon blowing up the briefing table.
The economy is in danger of imploding. The stores are being depleted. Recruitment is falling off a cliff, and Biden is getting briefings every day about new Wunderwaffens that will turn the tide this time.
I’m not saying Milley was behind the leak but he would be the one to take the fall or simply bow out if the resistance is in the Pentagon. And even if the leaker tuns out to be some low level gamer and larper, don’t discount the possibility that he was provided this stuff from someone else.
The only leak Nuland could be suspected of involves the bladder.
This is beginning to smell more and more like a desperate attempt at making an excuse for their failures and laying the groundwork for a settlement. Now if the Russians are stupid enough to fall for it, which I pray they are not, then this will be swept aside by sheer firepower and blood. The Americans haven’t met a peer-level opponent in generations so whatever is coming isn’t something they’re prepared for. They’ve “gamed” and “simulated” all of their lives but they’ve never come face to face with battlefield defeat on the scale that is happening and will increasingly likely continue should they keep doubling and tripling down on a bad bet. They’re “gambling” with our lives and keep coming up with snake eyes.
Here is an interesting read about the UKR skim, as well as the fact UKR is buying diesel…from RU…to fight RU… while skimming! RU bleeds the $ aide….
Seymour Hersh
https://discernreport.com/underreported-bombshell-seymour-hersch-reveals-massive-skimming-of-us-aid-in-ukraine-and-claims-cia-knows-all-about-it/
Can someone explain why Russia didn’t develop and deploy these glide bombs earlier? Wasn’t this a military technology the US developed in Vietnam? Why this huge gap in Russian capabilities till now? It’s a simple technology, it seems, so why the lag?
Ukrainian air defenses made it too costly. Now that those defenses are degraded, they can drop as many as they can make.
Larry,
the throw away line about 3D printers and artillery suggests zero underground munitions factories – Nazi Germany military production even near the end and under heavy Allied bombardment was impressive. But then I guess it was always obvious that Ukraine, the most corrupt country until they became the useful idiot to attack Russia was a bezzle to its leadership than a call even to shift to a wartime economy. UKR obviously drank the Kool aid that the economic war would rapidly destroy Russia, too.
It seems “Blazing Saddles” fills in most of the blanks. “Gentlemen we have to protect our phoney baloney jobs”.
Let’s see how the spring offensive goes. My guess is not well. Do not expect good terms either DC as you have led this country to ruins! I don’t care if the government shuts down completely or permanently and all of you loose your pensions. Perhaps you can regain them when you actually start fixing things here at home. Nationalize ALL defense businesses. Make Lobbying a crime. Insider trading already a crime is to be enforced immediately and retro actively against congress. If you did it your gone. Take the IRS agents and audit families of politicians. You guys want your paychecks and pensions we demand accountability BEFORE not AFTER you screw up everything.
Couple things do not add ip, and these documents are a kind of evidence of something missing, and this involves all of NATO particularly the US war material input. What appears odd to me, is the seeming lack of suitable quantities of munitions, involves other quantities of arms and munitions from the NATO bloc. Question; why is there an across the entire spectrum of systems in NATO a dirth of munitions in suitable quantities to keep the ukronazis heads above water so to speak. All arguments aside, to me, considering everything I personally am aware of to date, what underlies what the reality on the ground shows, all things considered now, when you squint the eyes and get a overview id the situation, it really looks like the armories in NATO are essentially empty. As in there is nothing there there.
Now ut struck me some months ago, but I wanted to be sure of my intutions, because they where intuitions, so with publication of these documents providing an overview, though they certainly could be misdirection, they also follow the pattern in detail that NATO is a paper tiger, there is no large consortium of fully up to specification armed military organization. Particularly when held up in contrast to the monies spent over the decades, with the exception of IRC resources, the rest looks exactly like NATO and the US.mil ended being a historically evolving military machine, like everything ended in the 90’s, with some relatively minor advancements in advanced war technology, the whole kittenkaboodle both sides if the atlantic, turned from being a military consortiem, to a vast filthy lucre laundering machine, at least an entire decade has passed, and its been stripping out the wealth of all nations of NATO, into the coffers of the monied elites running things. Plain and simple, and what we see on these pages somebody released here, is it. There is no more weapons and munitions. 15,000 Abrams tanks in storage is 15,000 Abrams tanks which ended up sitting getting rusty, their gaskets and hoses and electronics molding away, because somebody and something stole the monies which normally in a honest government not run by stinking thieves and a bankster oligarchy, been using, wearing NATO as a skin suit so they could easily steal all that money from us little folks. Same across the board, and they left enough to showboat for creating an illusion there was this huge vaunted military machine.
This is patently clear when I look at it this way, it all could be nothing other, just no way. Period. End of story. The ukronazis are getting smaller and smaller traunches of nato military goods because the source is all but emptied out.
I’m a 65 year old huy, watch my country all my life, and there is no freakin’ way things are like they are if nobody was stealing the 6.5 decades of my entire life unput in tax money of my country and this bleak picture of nothing left to provide these neo-nazi proxies with enough material to maintain a comparable fight with the Russian Alliance. Particularly in contrast to the munitions and weapons the Russians clearly provide, doing so at a tiny fraction of what has been “spent” for all of NATO: THERE. IS. NOTHING. THERE. THERE. BECAUSE. THERE. IS. NOTHING. THERE. BECAUSE. THE. MONEY. HAS. BEEN. STOLEN. BEFORE. IT. EVER. GOT. THERE.
I am not yelling here, it is explanation, to make my notion of the underlying truth, unmistakable.
What is on the NATO side for material of all kinds combined, Ukraine included, is truly freakin’ pathetic. This. Is. All. There. Is. ??? Come on. I was born in 1958. I stood with my toes touching the tarmac as a 10 year old BoyScout on Hansom Field with 20,000 other Scouts, as Phantoms Skyhawks Delta Darts Jolly Green Giants Mustangs even captured Russian Mig 15’s and 20’s took off just for our benefit, I watched b-52’s for decades fly out of bases across Main and NH, 20,000 of us BoyScouts where fed for three days by the US Army, they set up commissary tents by the dozens on Lexington Green for our Jamboree, I watched the Vietnam war unfold on TV, I remember WWII Korean War and Vietnam vets, even knew WWI soldiers, some family – some in our families sphere of activity, I know what existed then, I remember huge Mil Surp stores where a kid could die and go to heaven getting WWII surplus so you could style like no other BoyScouts in history, no kids in history, the amounts of military surplus would blow your mind back then, we equipped ourselves with GI field gear, that was what they got rid of because it WAS surplus, entire old supermarket buildings full of surplus almost in every town, I grew up seeing touching experiencing the tangible patriotic machine called the US Military. iT. N0. LoNGeR. ExIStS.
Everything. Everything we have been told to believe is a lie. And we believe these lies, because we are good decent folks, we do not lie, we live honest loves, we leave others alone, of course they lied to us because we are gullible that way, not because we are stupid, but because what these demonic lunatics are doing to all of us in all but incomprehensible to us. We simply do not do these things we do not even think of such things. That is how they gull us. And what you and me are looking at right now is the truth. Nothing is there but some worn out out of date war technology, some infantry with shiny bayonets and 1950’s design carbines, whoopty doo they went from old ALICE gear to groovy MOLLEE, which is old 90’s field gear. Yeah they got whizbang video game tech and drones, but that shit is cheap stuff, its glamorous and its window dressing for a huge military surplus store thats been raped and pillaged, the electric bill is unpaid and there’s a skeleton crew selling the scraps. And now, these satanic elites got caught with their pants down, because they strip mined it all, and all we see is all there is. Maybe some tactical dial a nukes because thats all the tritium on hand to make them work. What, a terror and reprisal infantry consisting of some AirBorne units, some contract troops, and a ground show shiny spiffy show armor, made in the 80’s and 90’s. A few old B52’s and barely maintained 90’s stealth, a song and a dance boondoggle to beat all previous boondoggle pork barrel one engine tactical stealth attack fighter, that if you have not noticed is not to be seen or heard of within 500 miles of the war zone. Mmmm. Funny that would you say? All we see right now is all there is for land and air warfare systems, munitions, and men. That is it.
Note something else too. When the Clinton regime got it turn on the throne of power, all technological advancement in this country halted. No one can argue with me on this. I am talking about hardware not software tech. I worked in aerospace, had hands on the engines developed for the FY22 and FY23, except some commercial engines, and digital fuel management for air breathers, nothing much happened after those two maniacal thieves ran things and it was totally on purpose. The only viable US designed and produced rocket engine for NASA was designed in 1957 by slide rule, the Pratt Florida RL10 and a couple minor later blocs. I built parts on those engines. Did you know NASA been buying Russian rocket engines toll a year ago? Except for the RL10, and old stored F1’s from the STS, till SpaceX, nothing after the 90’s worth note been developed and become viable standards. See the pattern of detail here? And its the same with our Republic. It is a cored out shell these elites wear as a skin suit so they can use whats behind it as a filthy lucre laundering machine. (Human trafficking too)
There is a lot of truth to what you say, in the larger systems, but their is an additional explanation as well. The US has more or less been continually at war, with the exception of a few years in the mid 90s since the first Gulf War.
All those Cold War and Vietnam era stores of artillery shell, bombs, and bullets got used in those wars or training for them. And with no peer adversaries in sight and just-in-time production taking over the western world, they weren’t replaced at a level needed and production was even degraded in lots of instances.
There aren’t ten thousand M-1s and fifty thousand HUMVEEs sitting depots because we wore them out running around Iraq or Afghanistan and left a bunch of clapped out examples over there when we left because it was cheaper to leave them than ship them home. Military equipment wears out pretty quickly when used. We’ve been using the shit out of it.
The Russians have always been renowned for never throwing stuff away. So they always had more old stuff then we do and they haven’t been using it at the rate we were.
You are living in my head my friend. I am a 63-year-old Army veteran. It was a lie. And it has always been a lie.
Whether or not the documents are genuine or not; whether they were leaked or not and for what intent is not gonna be known. It is what it is but, No matter it’s old news now and it doesn’t change the fact Russia is gonna continue.
What would really be mistake is for Poland to get more involved.
Concerning this God forsaken place here in the West. Which we already know our government is utterly corrupt useless and incompetent.
Only a child, brain dead or fool would believe or trust anything they say or do.
They are as salt when it loses its ability to flavor foods, it’s to be throw out and trampled under foot.
Someone I think maybe Lavrov or perhaps it was Medvedev who said isolate the U.S. for about 40 years then checked to see if there’s any one to talk too.
Translation of point # 5 of the ASSESSMENT:
5. wibble wibble (total panic) wibble wibble
big surprise: the ex-spook is impressed by what’s obviously a “limited hangout” release of stuff that’s known already and/or obvious wank. this has bellingcat’s stink all over it and looks carefully curated. now they want to blame it on some nebulous MAGA phantom named “OG”? please.
In the documents there are two revelations that mean the UK Parliament has been lied to. That is serious, legalistically. I can’t see that a disinformation leak would drop their major vassal/ally in such trouble. So this seems to boost the “documents are real” argument.
1. That there are 50 UK forces in Ukraine when it was denied there are “boots on the ground”.
2. There have been three close-calls between RAF and Russian air defences, not one, as Ben Wallace (UK defence minister, not to be confused with Wallace and Gromit, who are far more intelligent and responsible puppets) said to parliament. So he’s lied to Parliament.
https://declassifieduk.org/u-s-leak-british-spy-planes-dangerously-close-to-russia/
i’m fairly sure Telegram would have non stop clips of ruskie choppers and jets coming down in flames if those figures are correct, ditto for AFV/APCs. there is nothing in the document that even i didn’t know prior to the “leak” .
Ukraine as we currently know it will very likely be defeated via the SMO . If nothing else, the leaked documents seem to corroborate that thought though not really admitting it…as a retired Army Officer I can tell you that I never met a commander or staff officer that reported “failure” or “defeat” on a slide/briefing…that is why you get dick dance wording like “will be completely reduced” in classified briefs.
As Ukraine’s SMO defeat becomes harder or impossible to deny or cover up…it is also very likely that will trigger a series of irrational decisions and moves by US led NATOstan…especially as we draw closer to the 2024 US election cycle when “irrationality” rules supreme.
Biden and his ilk are fully capable of doing something really stupid so I would be very surprised if we don’t see NATO maneuver size elements (Battalion/Brigade) boots on the ground in the Ukraine in response to a UAF Spring Offensive defeat (if/when that happens). You don’t think the tons of military hardware being shipped to Europe is just for show or an exercise do you?
NYT says the leaker was some kid in the Air National Guard…
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-says-feds-getting-close-finding-leaker-young-gamers-discord-theory-emerges
“Eyes Only”
Unbelievable….if actually as published.
As soon as I read the words “gun enthusiast” and right wing being associated with this supposed character it became obvious to me that this is just another planned agenda. Lets link Gun enthusiast and right wing with being a traitor. Larry is spot on in his take on this,,or very close!
So the ZH article you linked says in part: “The national guardsman, whose name is Jack Teixeira, oversaw a private online group named Thug Shaker Central, where about 20 to 30 people, mostly young men and teenagers, came together over a shared love of guns, racist online memes and video games. ”
I’m sure all that matters to the Biden Empire–and thus all that will be politically exploited are the “love of guns” and “racist online memes” allegations…the damage to national security is tertiary at best to those clowns.
Looks like they got him, that confirms our host’s suspicions!
https://northeasternpost.com/news/suspected-leaker-of-top-secret-pentagon-documents-identified/
21 year old Air Guardsmen. The young truly are stupid.
He’s a scapegoat.
The EU had said that they have frozen funds of the Russian State: 300 billion Euros.
and Von der Leyen wants to use that they want to use this to rebuild Ukraina.
But today in the mainstream media: the Eu can´t find these 300 billion !
they only found about 20 bilion coming from oligarchs.
so ridicolous that all.
“Just because some information is presented in a classified briefing, that does not mean it is necessarily true or accurate. The men and women who put these briefings together or wrote the intelligence reports are human and can make mistakes.”
While those people can make mistakes, this data is NOT a mistake. It is POLICY.
What would be a mistake would be to report the truth where it does not fit the narrative; that would get one fired. Was it Rumsfeld said we create our own reality as a superpower? This doesn’t even rise to level of mistake. It’s not an error; it’s a belief, a faith.
The emperor’s new clothes – only nowadays we kill/silence the child. That way there is no mistake. These people are literally insane.
Insane \In*sane”\, a. [L. insanus. See {In-} not, and {Sane}.]
1. Exhibiting unsoundness or disorder of mind; not sane; mad;
deranged in mind; delirious; distracted. See {Insanity},
FBI investigators have arrested Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old suspected of being behind the biggest US intelligence leak in nearly a decade.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11969873/Identity-man-responsible-Pentagon-secret-documents-leak.html
…. the fibbies have him now.
Test
Similar to Reality Winner the patsy used to give credibility to leaked planted documents.
These attrition numbers are NOT BELIEVABLE. How a side that fires 3-4 x less artillery is wiping out other side’s equipments. I watch map updates daily, and Military Summary always includes all equipment shot down or otherwise, I Russian’s planes and helicopters are shot down at rate 1:10, with 10 being Ukraine. Russians fly way above and tend to shot down planes ca 40 km behind the front. Routinely. I really do not see the value of lying to a party who promised to arm you “for as long as it takes”. No wonder that they are running out of weapons, Americans think that the situation is not as dire as it is- if they believe these reports [ if they do believe this nonsense I would suggest they change jobs].
Just because someone is in the IC, does not prevent them from being susceptible to mass formation (or drinking the kool aid), particularly if career advancement depends on fixing the facts around the policy. This was a widespread problem in the Soviet Union.
There is a relevant Grimm’s fairy tale: The Emperor’s New Clothes
https://etc.usf.edu/lit2go/68/fairy-tales-and-other-traditional-stories/5637/the-emperors-new-clothes/