Scott Ritter created a bit of a stir over the weekend with a comment suggesting the Russians have fumbled the ball and set themselves up for Stalingrad like victory (i.e., a long and bloody struggle). I think Scott is wicked smart and we played golf together–he treated me and another who shall remain nameless at the Army Navy Club course in Virginia a few years ago. I disagree with this bit of Scott’s analysis. My other respected friend, the old squid Andrei Martyanov, also likes Scott and offers a counterpoint:
Or, what could be termed as “what Scott missed.” I still deeply respect Scott’s position and his courage but my disagreement with his recent statement on SMO is of a purely technical nature. Let me explain. Here is a simple operational truism since 1980s: if I see you (target), I will destroy you. And here is where Scott might have missed some points, which I make all the time for years and which explain why his assertion that some US “technology” and money (most of them will be stolen and laundered inside the US) have very little impact, if any on SMO. Here is this fact: there are ONLY two countries which have a state-of-the-art ISR complex, from satellites in space to massive optronic and signal intel. Right, these are US and Russia.
For American person, especially the one who remembered Russia in 1990s it is sometimes inconceivable to grasp a simple fact that Russia has in many respects a real time situational awareness of not only of the whole battlefield but the whole theater. As recent VSU “counter-attack” in Zaporozhie has shown or, as today released video, Russians know exactly where those much-touted, in reality making no difference whatsoever, US M-777 howitzers are, what they are up to and Russians blow them apart (in Russian). These are just two examples out of very many of SMO being largely not only situationally but tactically aware. All this because Russia was into the game of cutting edge recon and intel much earlier than the US. Recall this? Modern Russian ISR is cutting edge and I spoke at length on the issues of such things as legacy MKRTz Legenda or newest Liana, but those two are just a few tools in the vast arsenal of Russian recon and targeting complex–NO other nation with the exception of the US has anything comparable.
Please take time to read the rest of Andrei’s analysis.
Just because the Russians are pulling punches to avoid killing civilians and destroying infrastructure key for civilian survival does not mean they are ignoring the threat. For example, Andrei notes that the Russians waited for the towed howitzers to get into position before blowing them up.
I really am shocked that Scott got this so wrong. First, the US and NATO are not sending the most advanced, most sophisticated equipment to Ukraine. The M-777 howitzer, for example, is a good piece of towed artillery (it came into service in 2005). There is the problem–it requires a vehicle to tow it into position. When it is fired it must be towed to a new location to minimize the risk of counter battery fire. America and NATO have more advanced howitzers that are self-propelled. They are not sending those to Ukraine.
The equipment sent to Ukraine is basically surplus that the United States and NATO are not using. I believe in following the money. I think this is just a convenient pretext to get rid of old weapons systems in order to justify new spending on the latest, greatest.
Second, Russia has made and continues to make missile strikes on bases and weapons depots. It is not an occasional strike, it is repeated and regular. Remember Yavoriv?
The Yavoriv military base attack was an attack on the Yavoriv military base that occurred on 13 March 2022 as part of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The base is located near the city of Yavoriv, Lviv Oblast. According to Ukrainian officials, the military facility was hit by 30 Russian missiles, killing 35 soldiers and injuring 134 others.
This was not a one off attack. The Russians have struck all across Ukraine. I noted in my last piece that Desna, a Ukrainian base, was one of the latest targets. The Russians also hit Lviv, Vinnitsa and Sumy. There is no sign the Russians are running out of missiles, rockets and artillery rounds.
Third, who the hell is going to operate the stuff the west is sending? We are not seeing hordes of Ukrainian young men lining up to join the national defense. Instead, Ukrainian authorities are rounding up middle aged guys forcing them into the army. Many of these “new” recruits are on video complaining that they are nothing more than cattle fodder. Then there is the training component. Teaching a soldier how to operate and maintain a new weapon system is not a one day affair. This further complicates Ukraine’s ability to stay in the fight.
I too disagree with Scott Ritter’s assessment of the future developments in Russia/Nato war. I am not a military expert but logic tells me that Nato/US had 8 years to train the Ukranian army to the Nato standards roughly around 120 thousand. They were also deployed into Donbass region and with the experience of 2014/15 events and subsequent Minsk 1 and 11 agreements the Nato developed a fail safe method of warfare by deploying the fighters (Azov batallions) among the civilians. With all this foresight and planning what did they achieve? From a PR perspective evacuation of brave soldiers from the dungeons of Azvestol Steel factory will sound great, but no matter how much they slice and dice the issue it is a pure SURRENDER. So the question araises how does the Nato plan to carry out the next phase of operations if they are training say few thousand here and few thousand there? If 120 thousand troops that were trained for a minimum of 5 years ended up so poorly what are the chances of say even 20 thousand new soldiers even with better weapons? As far as I can see it is a no win situation for Ukranine/Nato. But will be a great wind fall for the arms merchants. Thanks
Sam McGowan says
I read Mike Whitney’s piece about Scott Ritter a couple of days ago. Personally, I wonder how Ukraine got those guns that far east that quickly since they were only given to them a week or so ago. It occurred to me that the Air Force may very well be flying C-5s and C-17s into Ukrainian airports. It wouldn’t be the first time they’ve done such things. There was a plan way back when Larry was a little boy to fly helicopters into a remote airfield not far from Tehran at night to mount a rescue of the hostages held in the embassy there. I knew people personally who trained for the mission. (Special ops got involved and said “Oh no!” and used modified C-130s and long-range helicopters and those of us who were around back then know what happened.)
There is no doubt Russia has advanced surveillance capabilities. Most people who read this are probably too young to remember the movie October Sky, which is based on Homer Hickam’s book Rocket Boys. I was in what is called middle school now back then and remember how everybody freaked out over Sputnik. In short, Russia (USSR) has had satellites in orbit longer than the US has. The Russian military knows a heck of a lot more about the situation than the New York Times and the US military intelligence apparatus and CIA.
I watch Live Map religiously – https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/18-may-at-south-buh-direction-russian-army-shelled-lupareve. It’s based in Ukraine I believe but I believe it gives a fairly accurate picture. It’s obvious that Ukraine’s forces haven’t gained crap. (There are places on the map they show as “liberated” but I don’t think Russian troops were ever in those areas in the first place, specifically around Mykoliav. The map is showing Russian artillery and drone attacks all alone the “front.” It appears to me that things are going in accordance with Putin’s plan to de-militarize and de-Nazify.
just reading your first few words and had to reply: do you really really think that NATO tells you what and when they are moving stuff to ukr ? really ? So, just to make it clear: if NATO says “we will do this and that”, it is very likely it was already done ! lol
are you that naive or stupid ? majority of NATO statement are posturing talk only. to believe NATO PR BS posturing as gospel indicate major problem in your thinking and bias
blind trust on everything NATO said indicate you are a troll or useful idiot
Michael Murry says
As I stated in the previous thread, I disagree as well with Scott Ritter‘s “new, revised” analysis. I disagree with Andrew Bacevich, as well, who recently (in an interview with Chris Hedges) called Russia’s military “staggeringly incompetent,” among other disparaging remarks. Then we have Tom Engelhardt who wrote (in an introduction to a William J. Astore article) about “the Ukrainians in their battle with Vladimir Putin’s desperately messed-up military that’s already lost, it seems, at least 12 generals (thanks in part, ominously enough, to U.S. intelligence), a record for modern warfare).”
I have sure lost a ton of respect for these three people whom formerly I took for reasonably informed and rational observers of the passing scene.
Larry Johnson says
hatred of the myth of Russia blinds seemingly reasonable people to the reality. They need to watch more WWII videos on what Russia really did.
Thanks for speaking up for Col Lang. I long enjoyed his thoughtful blog and am saddened to hear of his and his wife’s problems.
Clapper fired him; this is a badge of honor in my book!
dunno , he cannot hide behind medical issue and still spewing neocon propaganda at the same time banning ppl like a bully.. that just lame excuse
the only honorable thing he can do (if he really a honorable person) is to leave or close SST and have no more connection with the blog which now is run by TTG a lithuanian clown who said in his posts that he ‘allowed’ which comment to be published or not
basically TTG is using col lang’s blog and name to run his disinformation / IO and the old col allowed and jumped in banning ppl left and right/
again blaming age and medical issue is a weak cope out , especially for this old col , who as LJ said deteriorate or unrecognizable from the old Col he once knew
Bacevich always served the neocons even if his articles seem to suggest otherwise , ditto Tom Engelhardt.
Chris Hedges arricles are great when he wrote about the decline of America but he is still russophobe when it comes to foreign reporting
Col Lang (whatever medical problem he got) sold his soul , his honor and his site in exchange of something and actively cooperate with neocon lithuanian IO operative who now run his site.
at lease the ukraine war exposed these pretenders or know nothing and hypocrites who in the end always served the empire they claimed to hate
Seamus Padraig says
Yup. It’s sad. I miss the old Col. Lang. I followed him for eight years, and he rarely disappointed … until now, when we need him most.
As far as Chris Hedges is concerned, I dropped him years ago. Nevertheless, I was pleasantly surprised to discover that he’s been willing to challenge the government/media orthodoxy on Ukraine sometimes: https://scheerpost.com/2022/02/24/hedges-the-chronicle-of-a-war-foretold/
It’s not enough to lure me back personally; but I hope it does some fence-sitters out there (if there are any) some good.
i think your experience resonance with many of us ex SST readers. and ditto with chris hedges who seem shady / shifty in his leanings. i might add the glorified andrew bacevich too , but bacevich already blab too much in tidbit neocon supporting paragraphs on his articles.
he might think it is easier to fool random crowd but people are tougher here and if one spout mistakes or try to put wool on our eyes he will be called out immediatly
Bacevich is a defanged Radical Utopian, sometimes called a neo-con. He is best ignored.
I think Scott has a point. He agrees that Russia will win the war in the Donbass and will basically achieve its aims, but I think he is saying the US won’t give up and will continue to arm Ukraine as long as there is some Ukrainian males to fight. I don’t think Russia needs to call for all out war, but they need to think about post war and what the risks are.
I think that Russia will be giving this a lot of thought so I’m optimistic. Scott seems to be a bit “black and white” and swings from optimism and pessimism. But I think the risks are medium term 5 to 10 years not short term.
But hey! I know FA about war, but I do know that the Russian Government have planned for this. Unlike the US Government they haven’t relied on an over inflated think tank like the Rand Corporation to do their thinking for them. Somehow the Russian plans, political, military and economic seem to be working out a lot better than the plans of the Collective West.
If I were Russia, I would be trying to drive the biggest wedge I could between Turkey and NATO. Turkey doesn’t belong in NATO or the EU. The US only wants Turkey as long as they only purchase US weapons to make the US arms manufacturers rich.
Turkey would be a lot better if it teemed up with Russia and developed arms manufacturing in niche technologies in collaboration with Russia.
If Russia takes the Ukraine Coast and Turkey split from NATO then the Black Sea would be a joint Russian-Turkey pond. Russia to the North and East, Turkey to the South and West and NATO nowhere to be seen. With a knob like Stoltenberg running NATO it shouldn’t be too hard to tie them in knots. NATO would like the Black sea and while they have Turkey in the club they kinda have, without Turkey they are f….d.
Turkey and China also get along in spite of the Uyghrs so a Russia-Turkey-China relationship would be very effective.
I think Putin wants this to drag out. As you mentioned the hot war in Ukraine is going his way. The only war he can wage against the West is economic. It’s clear western population are weak and they cant suffer hardships as well. Moreover with all those countries who have immigrants and refugees, rising inflation will hurt their stability. Then political leadership might change, moreover citizens of the EU might change culturally and begin to hate the American neocons. As I have mentioned before in the Duran comments, whenever I analyze situations even in the markets, I always ask myself is time on my side or against, if the status quo is kept. Time is on Putin’s side. For example even in the US common people are not liking the announced 40 billion dollar aid when they are suffering from inflation and ‘baby formula issues’ Another 6 months when winter begins Putin will have won the economic war and perhaps changed the culture of the western people and political leadership of Western Europe. The best thing that the Wall did for eastern Europe was to keep crazy liberal thoughts out such as gender fluid etc. They also disabused eastern europeans of the communism is good.
I have become a believer in the effectiveness of Russian weapons systems and their employment on the battlefield. My comment comes from another perspective.
As several have now expressed and the Russians understand, the war is a full spectrum war. Full spectrum means it is being carried out on an economic front, political front, media and propaganda front, and military front. The Russians have been under some form of attack since the late 1990s, with gradual escalations as the Russians calculate measured responses. There is probably room for more escalation on all fronts.
The events now occurring in Ukraine are one phase of the war and are carried out under the unique circumstances of the broader battlefield. How weapons are used in the SMO, the speed of action, the treatment of prisoners, delivery of humanitarian aid, and reconstruction action may all have effects beyond the boundaries of Ukraine.
Eol Awki says
Seems to me that not many, if any, new Ukie military are needed for these imported weapons systems as there appear to be plenty of already trained mercenaries available for such tasks. Would that not be true?
Eol Awki says
I guess someone took offence at my question. That is all it was – a serious question. No malice behind it.
because you are posting non verified BS assumption with zero evidence. which mercenary unit now serving in ukraine have qualification to operate and maintain complex weapon system ? plenty of mercenaries ?
you are just trolling
That’s like hiring the same guys that had the weapon, air and logistical superiority against the sheep herders in Iraq Afghanistan to become the sheep herders in Ukraine. 🤣
The difference being those sheep herders were from that land, these mercs won’t be from that land. Majority of the fighting age men from Ukraine have fled if they could
I guess a major issue is that even if NATO kit reaches the front then will be soldiers left who are willing and able to use it.
As ever in life, it is what is not shown or discussed that might matter most. Scott refers to thousands of Ukrainian soldiers being trained in Germany and Poland. Maybe these are the men who will use the new weapons. But, we are not seeing propaganda videos of smiling, happy Ukrainians showing off their new kit and waving their diplomas. Given that everything else done in the name of Ukraine is over hyped and fabricated beyond comprehension, this feels significant to me. Of course, maybe the west does not want to antagonize Russia by showing the training in flight but they seem happy to upset her by every other means so I discount that explanation.
Scott’s broader geo political points though are relevant and well worth addressing. The collective West is bigger than Russia. If it really refuses to back down then it can keep this conflict going for a long time. Beyond Ukraine. I can see that this could frustrate broader Russian objectives, which seem to me to be simply focused on a need for security and to get on with life.
The question then is whether so called western leaders really can take populations with them as the conflict starts to have real consequences at home that cannot be hidden. Up to now, the impact of this on western populations has been akin to the World Cup where people cheer their team. Not the acceptance of real sacrifice or casualties for the home side. Parallels with Vietnam feel appropriate; my recollection of history is that it too was a cause that had similar total support from the political elite in the early days.
I agree that Scott’s preoccupation is primarily the fact that now ukr military is being trained in Poland and Germany hence cannot be hit by Russia unlike earlier during the SMO when the training occurred inside the ukr terrritory.
My prob with Scott’s view is simple: if the results that we see on the ground are any indication of the ukr military effectiveness after 8 years of NATO training, how could we possibly be concerned about troops being trained for a few weeks or even months ??
there’s in addition some simple math there as well: does Scott believe that ukr has an infinite number of bodies to be trained ?
Exactly. The lack of evidence of these bodies in training is pretty crucial. Various Twitter comments ask that question too: in particular Armchair Warlord who usually is very insightful.
“… just a convenient pretext to get rid of old weapons systems in order to justify new spending on the latest, greatest …”
I stopped reading Ritter post his 2 paedo convictions. But I don’t discount that he is a smart guy.
In terms of length of war I think when people talk in years they don’t quite understand how cold winter is in Ukraine and Eastern Europe.
Leaves fall, Forrest’s are not so easy to hide in, everything shows up against a white background and it’s incredibly cold.
Who is going to sand and salt the roads, take care of the train tracks, make sure pipes don’t burst.
Yes Russia has not destroyed lots of key infrastructure but alot of the damage will only show in winter.
NATO recognises they have until winter to fight. Once winter hits it will be insanely hard to fight Russia. The pain they can inflict economically -gas – on Europe and Ukrainie is not just a side consideration, it is a fatal blow.
This war from NATO Europe side has to wind down before winter increases demand for gas and therefore prices.
Russia can sit tight and move cautiously over summer, making sure that it builds up areas it takes to handle winter.
When winter comes Russia will have a decision. Put aside other weapons. It will have the power to kill people, destroy industries, inflict massive suffering just by turning a gas switch.
When they do that. If they do. All hell wil break loose and the war will really come home.
Martin shah says
Scott has got it wrong before & admitted it. That’s what differentiates analysts like him from the others who like to think they are infallible.
Michael Murry says
Good for Scott Ritter. Having reversed his previous analysis by 180 degrees, he can reverse it again by another 180 degrees and thus return to the more fact-based and rational analysis from which he originally set out. I, for one, will welcome him back to the land of the lucid.
This article appeared in EnergyIntelligence, an establishment site. Was it just a “puff piece” for the Dems and Bidenites? Or has Ritter been drinking the wrong juice? Or as Martyanov suggests, Ritter still hasn’t “graduated” from US video game war strategy to Russian real-time war?
I don’t think Ritter is suggesting that Russia doesn’t have the capability to render most, if not all, Western military aid ineffective in a military-strategic sense. Russia can, to paraphrase Andrei M., see nearly all Ukrainian targets and destroy them at will. What Ritter seems to be saying is that the “rules” and tactics of the SMO in the Donbass, including the force commitment, are likely not enough to push Russia to victory under the new geopolitical reality (outright Western belligerence) the SMO itself engendered.
Russia will undoubtedly liberate the Donbass, but if it stops there it will only have succeeded in de-nazifying and demilitarizing approximately 30% of the Ukraine. The Western portions of that country will be supplied by the West to the MIC’s delight in perpetuity; and while Russia could defend against this and manage this on military terms, it will be stuck with a frozen conflict. I don’t think that contemporary Russians would consider this a victory if their children and grandchildren are still killing Western armed Ukrainians decades from now.
I think Ritter is correct in expressing concern that if the current Russian template is carried forward after the liberation of the Donbass, the situation may end up in such a frozen conflict. The Russian’s may be able to see and destroy, but unless they expand the scope of their operation, they will be seeing and destroying for a long time to come.
Underlying the criticism of Ritter’s analysis is the assumption that following the Donbass liberation, Russia will move Westward with a heavier hand and remove the strategic space that the West and Ukraine seem to have formed. I believe this to be a correct assumption, but as of yet the Russian’s have demonstrated deep reservoirs of strategic patience that could be confused for forbearance.
Eric Newhill says
That is how I also read Ritter and I think he does have a fair point if we are understanding him correctly.
i believed ritter bite more than he can chew , first he should stick to observable tactical analysis and stop making assumption of russian goals when he have zero data on it. his geostrategic crap was made on many false assumption and it is really sad to see him reaching like that.
or that he secretly read and got influenced by defeatist like girkin
Eric Newhill says
Ritter may have bitten more than he can chew. However, if I read him correctly, his point is something that someone needs to chew. Do you really believe that when Russia conquers the East and South East of UKR that the US will just give up and accept that result?
I don’t. I think the US will plot and scheme and build a force that will implement guerilla warfare, false flags and then full blown warfare. It is my humble opinion that Russia must win on the battle field and in the geo-economic space such that the Euros and the CCP will prevent the US from doing what I outlined. And/or Russia must smash the entire UKR with ruthless and overwhelming force. However, tat might trigger a proportional US/NATO response immediately. It’s a delicate situation. I’m sure Russia has gamed it out – actually, of course they have. Now Ritter is gaming it out, albeit not eloquently or thoroughly detailed. Maybe Ritter is correct. Maybe he’s not. I don’t fault for taking a shot at it.
It is all about the money. The west still has more than Russia. And the western banks are apoplectic that there might be a new world banking order. They have had a monopoly for the last 500 years and Russia and every country that was unwilling to sanction Russia pose a huge threat to the unipolar banking system of the west. The western banks have been here before and have always come up victorious. They will throw everything the have to keep the banking system unipolar.
Add more NATO countries, bankrupt more countries, fight till the last dead Ukrainian, turn Ukraine into a moonscape. Whatever it takes.
One of the interesting things about this event is that it is revealing the muddled nature of “money”. The West does indeed have more “money” than Russia, but what is becoming very clear is that the West lacks capital. That is the West has very large notional currency numbers in its accounts, but utilizing them to achieve real world results is akin to pushing on a rope to move a heavy load. Western “money” doesn’t have the underlying productive base or inherent political capacity to move “men and materials” to achieve goals. Sure you can buy an increasingly more expensive steak, but try starting a cattle farm.
There is a notion amongst the Western political class to think the small historical data set on which our cognitive models are based on are universal. That is why we succumb to the false believe that “The western banks have been here before and have always come up victorious.” The truth is no one has been here before. The analogues aren’t the cyclical crisis of capitalism like 1928 or 2008. Perhaps the more appropriate analogues are epoch changing events like 1789, after which the power of the hereditary feudal class eventually gave way to the industrial capitalists after a quarter century of war.
The limits of our system have been reached and breached. The “Powers that be” will try to navigate this crisis with the singular goal maintaining their power, as represented by their political monopoly and the consumptive power of all those printed dollars. I imagine after the cold and hungry winter of 2022, the risk to them will be less expressed in basis points than in physical safety.
I just had a conversation with one of my best friends ( a retired USAF E9) he was raving about how the M777s were farther ranged and more accurate than Russian field artillery and that they were going to wipe the Russian forces from the battlefield. I kept the “what the hell does a USAF NCO know about field artillery” comment to myself but did reply to him that counter-battery fire is Tactics 101 and that the impact they would have on the battlefield would be minimal. To Larry’s point about personnel…you can’t just form trained gun crews out of hide…they take time to train…time is not on Ukraine’s side (Ash makes some good comments above on the time factor).
Anyway…I think what’s worth the discussion here is the difference in opinion and analysis that Larry and Scott are experiencing is exactly what the “conundrum” I referenced in a comment yesterday…by that I mean it’s hard to discuss the Ukraine with friends and colleagues who are unwilling to acknowledge even the slightest Russian offensive gain or Ukrainian loss.
great point at the end. And very sad in my view. And dangerous.
People refusal to discuss on a rational basis. This is the culture in fact, lack thereof, resulting from years and years of democratic propaganda in the US, which obviously exploded with Russiagate.
Nowadays these dems nut-heads even when faced with the most obvious/factual evidence will refuse to accept anything if it deviates from the dictated narrative. It is just incredible to see. They will not even attempt to argue, just move on the smearing and the usual tactics which at this point I cannot understand they are still being used.
Eric Newhill says
not just democrats (who are indeed nuts). I know conservatives that dislike democrats, but still repeat the same talking points about Putin, Russia and the war (you know…..Putin is an insane Hitler and Russia is populated with demented Orks. Russian generals are drunk and stupid. UKR is kicking ass, 50,000 dead Russians is a good start…..so on and so forth ad naseam). The RINO wing of the republicans has always been very pro-neocon and their propaganda is repeated on all of the RINO outlets from Hannity to blogs like Redstate.
The DC uni party is captured by neocons who loathe Russia for foiling their plans for Syria (neocon primary interest) and for throwing a wrench in the globalist new world order. The NWO crowd had Russia’s rich natural resources and population almost in their grasp until Mr Putin cleared off some of their oligarchs. Add century old neocon ethnic hatred to the mix.
Old fashioned corruption likely plays a greater part: not many can be as fully ideological as the lead neocons. But everybody can get into backhanders funded by the US taxpayer via the State Dept to UKR NGOs then on to US pols. Sundance over at CTH outlined this flow. The Russian MoD as a good briefing slide on the money flow aspect of the UKR bio lab program.
The midterm election vote will require massive rigging for the uni party to stay in place. Big effort, big money!
The arms and intelligence DC bandits are getting their cut too.
I’ve been watching this area since 2010; Steve Sailer discussed the ethnic issues in UKR long before Cookies Nuland executed her coup. saw then that the area was trouble.
Ordinary people can’t keep up with the oceans of BS, so I’m not surprised by Anti Russian position taken by some of my neighbors. Most think it none of our business, none want US military involvement.
They all know Lindsay Graham doesn’t give a tinker’s damn about what they think!
Does Lindsay get 10% like the big guy??
Eric Newhill says
Right. A mix of ideology and good old money making scams.
That is a point on which I long disagreed with Col Lang (long before his recent decline, so fair game). He would always shoot down anyone who accredited an event to the military industrial complex or money making motives. I get his point about ideology. But, as you note, there are lots of satellite entities that are clearly getting on board any of these stupid adventures b/c there’s big bucks to be made.
Yes, absolutely, the Russians have been a long-standing target. How dare they purge some corrupt oligarchs, treat the Iranians even handedly, save the Syrian government along with the minorities it shelters (including Christian), make warm with the Chinese, and the like.
Help please, what is CTH. I don’t want to be missing something good.
everything from Ukraine always focus on PR first. Their ‘assaults’ ‘planting border markers’ ‘retaking towns’ everything is not for the victory in battle but to make a mark on the narrative front.
this M777 episode also one PR stunt over many stunts , the number is too small and too late to make any difference. It is strange Ritter do not see the whole picture and got taken in by ukrop PR stunt.
it is far better to funnel soviet era self propelled arty from old warsaw pact client states , the ukrops have trained with these and can maintain them easier than a totally new system from NATO.
again the smell of PR BS so thick surrounding the M777 news
After hearing this from Scott Ritter, my exact first thought was why would he ommit some important info as excellent russian millitary intel and decision making. Shouldn’t be much cheaper to wait this gear go to the frontline and destroy it with simple tactical ordnance than use much more expensive missiles.
After all, there are 3 most important things to have when waging war…
Greetings from Zagreb. I’m following your excellent blog for quite some time and have a great respect for my Slaveni heritage as much as for American Patriots.
𝗡𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗲 𝗔𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗶𝘀𝗲.
Ritter given his extraordinary exposure on social media over the last month or so Red Flagged him to me, idk y, others didn’t notice the MISO (military information support operation) this PoS was running.
From Dreizen of the Dreizen Report, who is Scott Ritter:
“He gave a talk at my grad school in early 2003, where he boldly declared the USA would do so poorly in Iraq, it would use NUCLEAR WEAPONS in that country.
“Also, he was convicted and spent several years in jail for “exposing” himself over web camera to a Barrett Township, Pennsylvania police officer posing as a 15-year old girl, online.”
He was clearly targeted for entrapment by the FBI.
Ritter said he judged that it was an adult pretending to be an underage child. Turns out he was 100% correct.
Another FBI scam prosecution.
just a wonder if he fell into fbi scam , howmp many real honey trap he stumbled into and now being held over his head ?
Seamus Padraig says
Since I liked Scott Ritter for standing up to the Bushies back in 2003, I initially accepted FBI-entrapment theory when he got busted for pedophilia the first time. But the second time around, I began to wonder about him. Was he really dumb enough to fall for the same trick twice? What kind of kompromat do the Fibbies have on him anyway? That’s why I’m not as big a fan of his as I once was.
he lack caution especially against entrapment like that. one wonders if its an intentional honeytrap how easy to get ritter on video to be used in the future ?
ritter is damaged goods as far as where his loyalty lies , we can read his technical analysis but everything coming out from this guy should be read with caution.
same with gonzalo lira , i never trusted him 100% and with his ‘missing time’ i began to suspect a playbook staged event to let him gain more cred with his audience
as for the trustworthy people like Matraynov , Saker , Larry , they can still made mistakes but i trust them (for now) not to turn and become agent of neocons. Still every information from anyone will be vetted no matter what his past reputation
The FBI was after his ass every which way to Sunday after he quit the UN inspection group. The FBI is relentless. That is how they roll. They tried to get him on several things but ultimately they got him on a pedo scam. And there were never any victims. The problem with these kinds of stings is that you never get a chance to back out once you see the victim. Real entrapment situation.
And the legal expenses for several attempts to get him had to be horrendous.
Eric Newhill says
Setting aside all of the fairly and reasonably noted challenges involved in deploying them at the front, I don’t get how the 777s are suppose to really add anything to the UKR effort without their fire control systems. I have read in several sources that the fire control systems were removed from the packages being delivered to UKR.
OTOH, I have suspicions about those stories. My theory is that the stories might be a US IO b/c the Russians would know that the fire control systems are complicated, require special and extensive training and rely on US assets and personnel to work, like satellites, GPS, etc. and would therefore involve the US to the extent where it could be quite rationally perceived that the US is directly fighting Russia and killing Russians.
Given the 777s use Russian titanium to build, it’s just another effort to demilitarize the US for China by CCP installed puppet Joe Biden.
Everything makes sense if you dare to see the horrible situation.
crap post and really stupid attempt to ruin the comment sectionby blaming ccp , look ccp under your bed in your closet.
only fools and trolls constantly try to blame ccp for everything wrong in US govt
Jack Condor says
If there was a choice:
1. to take out the 777s before or
2. after a long effort to deploy them
which would be the most effective to demoralize personnel and expend resources?
I was born before the end of the Great Patriotic War (respect to Russia), devoted to our Constitution, have been an educator, social worker, practicing attorney, mediator and more. I know nothing about military science other than the little bit that I’ve learned from Andrei and others since the beginning of the SMO. Nonetheless, I possess a well developed BS, hubris, opportunism, etc., meter. Of all the SMO military commentators that I’ve encountered, Rittter and Lira register on my meter.
To the point, Andrei and others teach that the Russian operational MO grinds painstakingly slowly gaining almost imperceptible momentum (think the Entmoot in Tolkien’s trilogy) until a crack occurs at which time the entire opposition collapses . Ritter’s comment was made when the Azovstal surrender had begun and Russian forces were closing in on completion of three cauldrons. This seemed to me to signal the beginning of a collapse so his forceful comment made no sense to me. Further, because he had made occasional subtle, similarly incongruous statements in the past, I even began to wonder whether he might be involved in a bit of psy ops. He is one of the better known and respected commentators and his opinion would support the DC swamp monsters (certainly they have the inside story on the progress of the SMO) frantic push to get their last $40 billion pound of taxpayer flesh by the 19th. Oh well, it’s probably because I just watched Tinker, Tailor and Smiley’s People. Thanks. Larry for your excellent work.
Larry Johnson says
Re Tinker, Tailor, I prefer the original with Alec Guinness. Fabulous. Ditto Smiley’s people.
Amen, brother! Great DVDs to watch while stuck on one of Uncle Sam’s gray boats on the bring deep.
Guinness at his best in both – can’t possibly watch a remake. Addicted to espionage/ mystery movies/ series and the great Brit male actors. Brief follow on to Ukraine: last week’s Austin/ Shoigu then Azovstal; today Milley/ Gerasimov and rumors that Ukraine military are ceasing fight in LPR cauldrons? Possible that military leaders have had enough of sacrificial lambs on the altar of psycho/ sociopath politicians? Dominoes anyone?
Errata: Correct above comment to read “Possible that military leaders have had enough of sacrificial lambs on the altar of US/ Collective West psycho/ sociopath politicians?
Chris Chuba says
One needs a divining rod to figure out what is going on in Ukraine given the collapse of our MSM into govt shills. For me, knowing the state of artillery engagements would reveal the truth. Russia should be able to silence Ukrainian artillery very quickly w/counter battery fire and air strikes. If Russia is doing this, they are winning, if Ukraine can unleash a long term barrages on one target, they are winning.
i doubt ukraine can win anything even if they can fire barrages on one target , war is not won or lost in single engagement you know
I really wonder about this “NATO spent 8 years training UK forces to NATO standards”. It seems to me that we have no evidence that this is any different than the other grafts that take US tax $ and funnel it into high profit contracts for the connected.
Seamus Padraig says
It’s looking like all that money went right up Hunter Biden’s nose!
Michael Murry says
“By God, we’ve broken more toes and an ankle kicking the Vietnam Syndrome yet again!”
Scott is sensing something in his gut that goes beyond the military element. There is a saying that all wars are bankers’ wars. And there has never been a bankers’ war like this one. The western banking system has controlled the money system for the last 500 years or so without any serious challengers. It has been a unipolar banking monopoly. But now the combination of Russia, China, India and the Asean Countries, South America and Africa are threatening to break this monopoly.
$40 billion from the US with crap armaments will not do anything to Russia. But if somehow the western bankers can find a way to put in ten times as much and buy the very best that money can buy in men and material, they probably can beat Russia.
One thing that has never happened in bankers’ wars is a physical attack on the banking system itself. It may be that is what it takes to make the bankers give up their monopolies. Kinzal the central bank of Ukraine and if that does not stop the bankers then it is time to start Kinzaling banks in Switzerland, Brussels and move up the food chain hitting only banks. Radical as hell, but these guys will stop at nothing including assassinating Putin if that is what it takes.
Mike Whitney’s a friend, who’s writing I admire. I sent him this comment on his good Scott article.
Agree totally with your last para as to the objective – crushing Russia, seizing resources, etc. We are the main predator of the current world, all for profit. I do disagree with you, however, that this is not a proxy war NATO vs Ukraine. I consider both the Ukraine element and the sanctions as the proxy war. It is the means by which US/NATO intends to achieve the main objective. US/NATO will not achieve their objective. It’s naive. Reason: the Russian people and the depth of the meaning of “Mother Russia” – as I witnessed in 1991 in person when I was there. I tried to convince a good friend, official Hero of the USSR, to return to the US with me, and had it explained to me. Also, Putin well learned the lessons of WWII – something our citizens at home never experienced, and in fact are simply ignorant. Our people have no concept of Russian reality. And, I would say, neither does Ziphead Zalenskyy. (ZZ for short)
Scott is correct on one point, the apparent current insufficient effectiveness of interdiction. That point has bothered me. I know Russia regularly hits key weapons bases, facilities, and key points of consolidation, e.g., rail junctions. Whereas Scott posits some tactical and / or strategic adjustments for the Russian approach, I would disagree on the necessity.
I would hold the current seven Russian SMO objectives, and approach being taken (defeat in detail – 2nd phase) but would enhance / expand use of interdiction technology and targeting rules, of which I am sure Russia is very capable if or when it becomes desirable. It would be an escalation, but quite justified, and of which US/NATO would have to swallow. As for any and all future expansion of Ukraine forces, it’s not numbers, but quality that counts, and with upscaling interdiction measures, thereby limiting weapons, more troops just won’t do it for ZZ , not that they would anyway.
By the way, recall all the media focus on Russian massing of forces near the border. There was total silence here on the massive of the Ukraine forces in Donbass – pointed out by Russia. Now that’s who Russia is fighting, and those Ukraine forces did not just sprout from the ground recently like little flowers after Russia moved in on its SMO.
wow i nver posted a comment until now here…but its such a plesure to read all coments ( truly i learn something new every time i read the coments ) SO when i see so so many smart people i wonder who in the name of god none of those smart people are invited to speak about his expertise in MSM, but the anwser come very fast, NONE of the gusy i read here in my opinion ll ever accelt to do what the ones in MSM do…all here in my opinion have HONNOR and this coutn for them more then anything else…
Regarding Scott analysis it can be ,, taken„„ in 2 or 3 ways,
1st he can get it wrong it happend before and he admited this so its not such a big deal to make a mistake and accept it.
2nd . Scott have a point in what he si saying but i think he mistake when he think that west can enforce this more then Russia do, i read some Russian sites, new Russian Tweteer, and VK..and russians are fully suporting their country and prezident right now and they are willing to ,, suffer„ and to accept dead solders more then we ll ever be abble to do it… BUT his intrepretation acn be put on the lack of informations that he get and come out from Russia
3rd… he due to his past is forced to backtrack some of his analysis ( in my opinion this is the most posible thing) or maybe he thinks he can get some nice paycheck from MSM or such thing
Any way this is my humble opinion if i get it wrong i apologise hei is not my intention to hurt some one feelings… but here i can read some of the best analysisthat we can find on the entire web
Scott’s latest and this is what I think he is really concerned about and had not expected:
“The creation of an impregnable Ukrainian strategic rear is a game changer. First and foremost, it provides Ukraine with the means to rearm, refit and re-equip its forces to Nato standards without fear of Russian intervention. This not only counters Russia’s stated military objective of “demilitarization” of Ukraine’s forces, but also steels the resolve of the Ukrainian government to reject any settlement that obliges them to embrace neutrality in perpetuity.”
I question whether the US and Nato have the money to pay for a strategic rear and whether Ukraine has the men willing to keep up the fight in Ukraine. Back to my point about the western banks. I think they will find a way to put up the money if it is an existential threat to these western banks. They own the governments and I am afraid they will force the governments any way they can.
ScottRitter-1- sta semplicemente dicendo che anche con un eventuale denazificazione e controllo totale sull’ucraina, la russia è solo all’inizio di quello che ci attende tutti:
la terza guerra mondiale.
Non sono solo gli Usa a voler mantenere saldo il loro potere globale , e da 30 anni, (dalla fine dell’URSS) seminano zizzania nel mondo e portano guerre ed instabilità allo scopo di “dividere et imperare”.
Oggi sul campo è apparso un altro competitore agguerrito e motivato, e cioè la perfida albione, che sembra aver ritrovato l’ardore imperiale che per secoli l’ha contraddistinta.
L’Uk ha dominato a lungo mari e monti di tutto il globo e dopo la fine della seconda guerra mondiale era stata relegata nell’UE a fare da tutor ai discoli europei, ai fervori “revancisti” di francia e germania relegandoli dentro una gabbia fatta di sbarre e catene, meglio nota come commissione europea, con le sue folli regole imposte da lobby ed entità sovranazionali( il cui scopo finale è quello di spogliarci tutti e ridurci nella stessa situazione della grecia.)
L’Uk al momento opportuno si è liberata dalle catene e dalle sbarre dell’UE(brexiti) e libera da ogni vincolo sta cercando di riconquistare il terreno perduto, il potere imperiale.
Agendo all’unisono con gli Usa, l’UK attraverso la nato , sta cercando di impedire alla russia di usare le sue ricchezze e la sua potenza militare per ritagliarsi uno spazio autonomo in ambito globale che possa fare concorrenza all’attuale sistema economico e soprattutto evitare rapporti di utile reciprocità con i paesi europei.-2-
Lo stesso vale per gli Usa che all’unisono con l’Uk e attraverso l’aukus cercano di impedire l’emergere della cina come potenza mondiale capace di porre fine al dominio assoluto degli stati uniti.-3-
Quindi scott ritter,come molti altri si sono resi conto che questa guerra non riguarda solo russia ed ucraina. E per questo non è destinata a risolversi.
Anche perché se la questione riguardava solo russia ed ucraina, la guerra non sarebbe neppure iniziata, ma spenta nel 2015 con gli accordi di Minsk.
-1-daccordo che bisogna seguire anche i media embedded, ma occorre fare attenzione a non assimilare i loro schemi, i loro metodi narrativi, dove esiste solo bianco o nero e spesso un colore a senso unico..
-2-Una possibile alleanza commerciale e politica tra russia germania non spaventa solo gli Usa, ma da secoli è l’incubo della perfida albione
-3-la cina nel XIX secolo è stata una colonia inglese e fino al 1997 hong kong era un protettorato cinese.Attenzione!!!!
non sono un complottista, ma semplicemente un paranoico e poniamo il caso che gli usa
rinsaviti optino per una strategia monroe3.0, e si crea un vuoto di potere globale che l’uk da sola non sarebbe in grado di gestire…ecco la paranoia,pardon la domanda è questa:nel caso in cui gli usa si facessero da parte, la cina si allea con la russia o con l’UK?
ScottRitter-1- is simply saying that even with a possible denazification and total control over Ukraine, Russia is only at the beginning of what awaits us all:
the third World War.
It is not only the US that wants to maintain its global power, and for 30 years (since the end of the USSR) they have sowed discord in the world and brought wars and instability in order to “divide and rule”.
Today another fierce and motivated competitor has appeared on the field, namely the perfidious albion, which seems to have rediscovered the imperial ardor that has characterized it for centuries.
The UK has long dominated seas and mountains all over the globe and after the end of the Second World War it was relegated to the EU to tutor the European naughty, the “revancist” fervor of France and Germany relegating them inside a cage made of bars and chains, better known as the European Commission, with its crazy rules imposed by lobbies and supranational entities (whose ultimate purpose is to strip us all and reduce us to the same situation as Greece.)
The UK at the right moment has freed itself from the chains and bars of the EU (Brexiti) and freed from all constraints, it is trying to regain lost ground, imperial power.
Acting in unison with the US, the UK through NATO is trying to prevent Russia from using its wealth and military power to carve out an autonomous space on a global scale that can compete with the current economic system and above all avoid relations of useful reciprocity with European countries. -2-
The same goes for the US which, in unison with the UK and through the aukus, seeks to prevent the emergence of China as a world power capable of putting an end to the absolute domination of the United States.
So scott ritter, like many others, realized that this war is not just about Russia and Ukraine. And that is why it is not destined to resolve itself.
Also because if the question concerned only Russia and Ukraine, the war would not even have started, but would have died out in 2015 with the Minsk agreements.
-1-agree that embedded media must also be followed, but be careful not to assimilate their schemes, their narrative methods, where there is only black or white and often a one-way color
-2-A possible commercial and political alliance between Russia and Germany scares not only the US, but has been the nightmare of the perfidious albion for centuries
-3-China in the 19th century was an English colony and until 1997 hong kong was a Chinese protectorate.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but simply a paranoid and let’s say he uses them
come to your senses, opt for a monroe3.0 strategy, and a global power vacuum is created that the uk alone would not be able to handle … here is the paranoia, pardon the question is this: in case the uses were made aside, is china allying itself with russia or the uk?
Mister sonar…attenzione a questo grave campanello di allarme:
(e perché ScottRitter scrive certe cose)
26 MAG 2022 13:34
COME MAI DAL MINISTERO DELLA GIUSTIZIA E’ STATO INVIATO, AI MAGISTRATI DI ROMA, UN PIANO DI DODICI PAGINE CONTRO UN ATTACCO NUCLEARE? – IL DOCUMENTO CONTIENE LE PRESCRIZIONI IN CASO DI MINACCE “BIOLOGICHE, CHIMICHE, RADIOLOGICHE”: “SIGILLARE GLI INFISSI, PROTEGGERE I POLMONI DALLE RADIAZIONI” – LA REAZIONE DI UN GIUDICE: “LO SAPPIAMO TUTTI CHE C’È LA GUERRA. MA PENSARE CHE QUELLA NUCLEARE ARRIVI NELLA MIA STANZA…”
Mister sonar … pay attention to this serious alarm bell:
(and why ScottRitter writes certain things)
26 MAY 2022 13:34
WHY HAVE A TWELVE PAGE PLAN AGAINST A NUCLEAR ATTACK SENT TO THE MAGISTRATES OF ROME FROM THE MINISTRY OF JUSTICE? – THE DOCUMENT CONTAINS THE REQUIREMENTS IN CASE OF “BIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL, RADIOLOGICAL” THREATS: “SEAL THE FIXTURES, PROTECT THE LUNGS FROM RADIATION” – THE REACTION OF A JUDGE: “WE ALL KNOW THAT THERE IS WAR. BUT THINK THAT THAT NUCLEAR ARRIVES IN MY ROOM … ”