As Andrei Martyanov has frequently and correctly noted, the U.S. Army and its legacy officers are demonstrating remarkable incompetence in assessing the Russian military. The latest in this parade of clowns is Joel D. Rayburn, a retired Colonel and current fellow at the New American Foundation. I think Andrei would agree that Rayburn is a poster child for the grandiose fecklessness of retired U.S. Army officers.
Why focus on Rayburn? He was recently interviewed by a New Yorker correspondent and offered up an astonishing analysis that is the product of either gross ignorance or deliberate misinformation. You judge for yourself his motivation. Here are Rayburn’s key points from his interview:
I think, over all, the campaign design was flawed from the start. It was an invasion force that was too small for the task, just in straight numbers—in the numbers of combat units, combat formations they were able to put on the battlefield.
But then they didn’t have sufficient logistics in place to support even that force.
What we can now see is that they simply do not have the institutional capacity to support offensive operations deep into enemy territory and aren’t able to give units supply and combat support of all kinds: artillery support, air support, air-defense support. With an already weak logistics base, it was an enormous mistake for them to chop their main offensive into four major axes that were widely geographically dispersed.
Then there’s the kind of equipment that’s showing up on the battlefield. . . . And then they’re showing up on the battlefield in the axis of advance toward Kharkiv and Chernihiv and Kyiv with Cold War-era, non-modernized, armored combat vehicles—both infantry vehicles and tanks.
It seems like one of the priorities for their modernization project was the air-defense systems, and also their precision-guided munitions—both aircraft-borne and surface-to-surface missiles—and ballistic missiles. But those all failed.
Yeah, of course that’s part of the story—and, listen, I’m not an expert on the preëxisting Russia-Ukraine conflict—but it does seem that the Ukrainians have been under attack from the Russians and Russian proxies since 2014.
I think everyone assumed that they were going to set Kyiv as their primary objective and their main effort. . . . But, if they were going to do it, I think the expectation was they were going to throw all their best equipment, their best units, and their logistics capabilities at Kyiv. And they obviously didn’t do that.
A bad army was ordered to do something stupid. They were sending armored units just ambling down the road with no infantry screen, no reconnaissance, no air cover. And then the Ukrainians just picked them off with anti-tank weapons. It’s not surprising.
They’re a poor-quality military with poor-quality leadership and poor logistics—and seemingly highly inclined to corruption.
Their losses have been astronomical. Their units have taken such a beating. Their logistics are weak. Their leadership is poor and their troops so poorly trained and motivated. I just don’t see how the kind of force that has been defeated in the north over the first six weeks of this war can suddenly transform itself into a force that’s going to be able to get done what they appear to want to get done, even in eastern Ukraine, southeastern Ukraine.
The units that got destroyed in the north, their remnants are not magically going to have been reorganized into effective units on the ride from Belarus down to the southeast.
What we’ve seen in action is a military machine on the Russian side that could not pull off a confrontation with any NATO power.
Let’s give Mr. Rayburn credit for one thing–he admits he has no expertise on events in the Donbas over the last eight years. That is evident. He ignores the glaring fact that the Ukrainian Army failed to conquer the territory and that local militias with support from Russia held off a NATO trained force. That is a cold, hard fact.
I am shocked by his grotesque ignorance of Russia’s air-defense systems and their precision-guided munitions and ballistic missiles. According to Rayburn, “But those all failed.” Really? Someone needs to tell him about the repeated strikes in western Ukraine around LVIV that have destroyed Ukrainian military bases and weapons depots. Just this week, Russia carried out multiple successful strikes in Dnieperpetrovsk, Kremenchug, Druzhkovka, Poltava, Kharkov, and Odessa using sea launched Kaliber’s and KH-101 Missiles from Tu-95MS’s.
Here is the recent video of the inaccurate, dysfunctional Russian missiles pummeling targets in Lviv:
Man, if Russia’s crappy, old equipment can do that just imagine what the newer stuff could do (sarcasm alert).
The United States and its western allies are sending a large amount of material equipment and weapon systems to Ukraine and, shortly after they arrive and are being assembled, are blown up with missile systems that Rayburn insists do not work. If Rayburn’s conclusions reflect the thinking of U.S. military leadership then we are in big trouble. It is not Russia’s air defense systems that are failing. It is the NATO systems that have proven worthless to stopping hypersonic missile strikes.
I am amused by Rayburn’s conclusion that the Russian military leadership is corrupt:
They’re a poor-quality military with poor-quality leadership and poor logistics—and seemingly highly inclined to corruption.
Thank God we have military giants like Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who was promoted for reasons other than his military accomplishments (soldiers I know who served with him in combat theaters charitably describe him as a “dumb ass”), in charge of our national defense. As I recall he left the military to make mega bucks working for one of the Pentagon’s largest defense contractors by helping win new defense contracts for his private sector employer. Nothing corrupt there, right? I think that Rayburn is engaged in the psychological act known as PROJECTION. We are what he says the Russian are.
The delusional thinking on display in Rayburn’s interview is best illustrated by the following quote:
A bad army was ordered to do something stupid. They were sending armored units just ambling down the road with no infantry screen, no reconnaissance, no air cover. And then the Ukrainians just picked them off with anti-tank weapons. It’s not surprising.
Do you recall the 40 mile column of Russian armor that sat north of Kiev for more than a week prior to withdrawing from the area? It was neither seriously damaged nor destroyed. It was used as a decoy to pin down Ukrainian units. The entire length of that column was accompanied by air defense units that prevented what was left of the Ukrainian Air Force from striking and destroying the stationary column.
The video evidence emerging from the war in Ukraine is rife with images of bodies of dead Ukrainians and tons of captured weapons and military supplies. If Russia’s Army is a paper tiger, it is doing a remarkable job of grinding the Ukrainian military capability into dust.
God help us if this is an example of the best military minds the US has to offer.
I have similar assessments of Austin from officers unfortunate enough to have to report to him.
We are in deep trouble.
I read your stories in my show, would you come on as a guest sometime? Thanks, I’m a fan of truth.
happy to do so.
My email is andyz7@verizon.net to schedule an appearance thanks. My audience loves you.
What’s up with Col. Lang? His latest posting is pathetic.
He has lost his mind. I have no other explanation. I read the piece you are referencing. It is absurd. What utter nonsense.
I have now read through that thread. A lot of the other commenters are even crazier than Col. Lang.
Tell me about your show? Link?
What is the history of when the propaganda is totally exposed? What happened in Germany, France, and other countries that were being defeated and the propaganda just became untenable, when the lies are massively exposed?
You assume the average person cares. I don’t think they do. People know they are getting one side if the story. But just like Trump Russia, in the West reality is what people want to believe it is. And people want to believe Russia is a bad guy that needs to be destroyed.
That’s what scares me. Propaganda is only exposed after a massive, shattering, military defeat. Or disaster.
All the combatants thought they would skip to an easy victory in 1914. The first six months saw tens of thousands of casualties and thousands of deaths. The shock was incalculable. What happened after the war? Revolutions.
You make a good point about the Ukrainian army not being able to wage offensive war as-is.
There’s in-depth scholarship out there about the Russian logistical challenges – which lets be honest, no army is perfect – that have been documented. In that regard, Rayburn is not entirely incorrect.
Russia’s army extensively relies on rail networks for transportation for example. There were a couple of analyses pre-dating the war that Russia doesn’t have enough trucks to support a lot of armored brigades at once at extended distances of 100 miles that have been proven accurate by OSINT, independent sources, photos of numerous abandoned vehicles, and intercepted Russian comms chatter talking about fuel shortages north of Kyiv. Now that the offensive is more focused, those problems are less acute obviously, but still remain to some degree.
Russia doesn’t need an overwhelming supply of Trucks because the RAF’s are based on Defence of the Country. Regardless, they’ve have no problems getting where they needed to be.
So, help us out here. Can you point to any specific evidence of shortfalls in Russian logistics during this operation? I would challenge the “scholarship.” What I have seen over the last 60 days is pretty remarkable. If the Russian Army was burdened with logistic problems as claimed by Rayburn I would expect to see some manifestations. Can you identify any for the benefit of the readers?
Absolutely, here are just some of the examples:
Evidence of Russian Logistics Shortfalls:
Pentagon Offcial: U.S. intel assesses some Russian units “are literally out of gas,” stalled due to fuel shortages.
https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/2950497/senior-defense-official-holds-a-background-briefing/
The 40 Mile Convoy UKR failed to attack was stalled in places according to satellite imagery, with the assessment that fuel shortages were to blame. Why else would they stop when not facing any military opposition?
https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-military-convoy-bearing-down-on-kyiv-appears-stalled-2022-3
Note, I dislike the NYT as much as anyone else, but Slide 7 of this piece has actual audio of intercepted Russian radio chatter from officers saying “we urgently need fuel” numerous times.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/28/world/europe/russian-radio-ukraine-war.html
Here’s one of the examples of videos showing Russian tanks stuck and/or abandoned after running out of fuel.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/driver-offers-russian-tank-crew-26337435
Taken together, all this evidence I think pretty clearly indicates Russia is facing logistical problems. Again, this evidence is only the tip of the iceberg as to whats out there.
Dude, you got to be kidding. You’re only quoting new outlets getting spoonfed by CIA and DIA. Look at the claim about the 40 mile Russian column stalled because of lack of gas. Total Horseshit. Let’s just assume that was true. Then why in the hell didn’t Ukraine destroy a stalled column? Do you have any background at all in the military or intelligence? What you are offering up is pure crap.
Hey hey, no need to get heated, lets keep this as objective and civil as we can. =)
I’m totally agreeing with your assessment that the Ukrainian army is incapable of undertaking offensive warfare. Their offensive war capabilities have been destroyed, and that is of course why they failed to destroy the column.
There are satellite imagery of the convoy just sitting there for days. My question is, why were they just sitting on the road for days since they dont’ face any serious threat or opposition?
And OK, if all the sources I mentioned are all somehow linked to the CIA and DIA, etc, etc, what news sources can we trust? What websites are credible and trustworthy source of information? If all these sites are DIA linked, how can we find ones that aren’t DIA linked? What about the opposite being true, sites linked to Russian intel sources?
If all this info and almost every mainstream site out there is tainted, my question is what are the trustworthy sources?
What publically available and transparent sources do you have that you are getting your information from, that we can use?
I’m not getting heated, but I am frustrated that you proffer as “proof” a news article about a “stalled” Russian column. You accept that report as true without questioning. That tells me you have zero experience doing military analysis. Even an Army private would know that a stalled column is a big fat target. What we do know without a doubt is that Ukraine did not attack that column. Do you understand?
Ok; Looks like I’ll need to look into the facts surrounding the convoy a bit more.
Now, if you could answer my question:
If all this info and every mainstream news, defense department, think-tank, etc, site out there is tainted propaganda, my question is what are the trustworthy sources?
How can we verify DIA/CIA links?
On the flipside, how can we ensure other news sources haven’t been compromised by foreign intelligence agencies or Russian intel?
What publically available and transparent sources do you have that you are getting your information from, that we can use?
You start by comparing what they “report” with other sources from the other side. I was involved directly in CIA Covert Action in Afghanistan back in 1985. I saw firsthand how we planted stories in publications that were avowed anti-CIA and they didn’t know. Now with social media, it is even easier.
Which sources do you use that you would recommend that are publically available, credible, and transparent?
How can we ensure those sites that aren’t parroting the mainstream line aren’t similarly compromised by foreign intel agencies?
You are looking for a unicorn. Does not exist. I look at what the Russian channels report and then see what comes out of the Ukie side. For example, the Russians said they took out multiple railroad junctions. Ukrainians reported the same. I take that as true. You can’t show me a single video of the Ukrainians taking out a Russian column. You can’t show me a single video of 1000 Russian soldiers surrendering. I didn’t see any Ukrainian social media posts prior to April 1st reporting on an atrocity in Bucha. It is not just what you read or see, it is also what is not being reported or shown.
ROFLMAO! This is nothing but Biden administration propaganda!
As you say, no army is perfect, but the Russians have shown the capacity to learn from their mistakes. The image of them as being this dumb, lumbering beast is entirely a product of our own propaganda machine. We shouldn’t idealize or demonize the Russians. Meanwhile our propaganda machine has given us one victory since Vietnam: Grenada.
Oops, sorry, the first Gulf War as well.
Oops, you forgot that other military Colossus, Panama, that our lads crushed.
are you spreading disinfo narrative ? not enough trucks not enough supply , trusting OSINT bullshit information / disino sites , ‘independent’ sources ??? , numerous abandoned vehicle , intercepter russkie comms..
your info are all fake data from kiev independent propaganda sources
I agree that OSINT is a disinformation site. It is controlled by MI6. It is a tool of British intelligence.
I am using OSINT just to refer broadly to any Open Source Intelligence. This includes everything from youtube videos, telegram posts, reddit posts, other social media, commercially available satellite imagery, etc, etc.
As far as I can tell, there is no one universal source of OSINT that one agency controls..?
Actually, most of the ones putting out the Ukie spin are tied to British intel, principally. Biggest offender is https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical
Pure psyops.
So-called “Open Source Intelligence” is nothing but people sitting at their computer and drawing conclusions from photographs and news stories. Of course, US “intelligence” is the same thing aside from ELINT. At least government photo interpreters have been trained, although they as often as not get it wrong.
That sounds like one particular Twitter page/thread?
I’m pretty sure not every Twitter user, Reddit poster, Youtube user, or other social media channel is controlled by M16? There is a good amount of footage and imagery coming from random Ukraininan citizens with like 27 followers.
And surely you know OSINT is an umbrella term, much like SIGINT and HUMANINT?
so what is your experience in evaluating such information? Any military or intelligence background?
Not sure why that matters..? As far as I can tell, you don’t need military experience to look at videos that appear to be from Ukrainian citizens and ask basic questions?
Back to the point though, it sounds like you were just referring to a couple aggregators or pages that you claim have CIA/DIA links?
Surely it sounds like a bit much to say that every random Twitter/Telegram/Reddit/Youtube/WhatsApp user posting footage and pics from Ukraine is controlled by M16?
Why are you avoiding the question? What is your experience? I am very up front about my experience. What analytical training do you have?
17 years this June in the defense programs/analysis world – currently in the think-tank world following off of an army career, to satisfy your curiosity.
Now if you could answer my question? =)
It sounds like you were just referring to a couple aggregators or pages that you claim have CIA/DIA links?
How have you verified their CIA/DIA links?
Surely it sounds like a bit much to say that every random Twitter/Telegram/Reddit/Youtube/WhatsApp user posting footage and pics from Ukraine is controlled by M16?
In Vietnam people like you were called REMFs.
My exchanges with Mr. Kaiser leads me to suspect he is a troll sent to disrupt. He repeatedly declined to describe his experience, either military or intel. So I think you have it right.
See my above response as to a few of the pieces of evidence indicating logistical problems. Again, no army, including the U.S. or Russian armies are perfect, so its not surprising at all that some issues of this nature should appear. Its also not surprising that they’re highlighted in a war which is the first time Russia has deployed this many troops in decades.
My question to you is if we can’t trust videos from social media, youtube videos of actual Russian radio communications, etc, etc what can we trust?
There are a lot of sources out there with more reasonable middle ground takes that post evidence.
If you dismiss every source that points to some flaws with the Russian army as “bullshit fake data”, the only source you would have left to read is actual Russian State Television.
Are we suddenly to dismiss every statement or briefing made by a U.S. defense official as propaganda because every single one of the 29,000 Pentagon officials and other government officials are all in on some grand conspiracy? That I find ridiculous.
Kaiser,
You cannot make an assessment as to the direction an entire war is going from a few select videos, even if they are not “fake” and they have accurate captions/descriptions. And, especially, if you don’t have any background in performing military or intelligence assessments.
These videos are largely, as Larry says, pure persuasion (aka “propaganda”). It’s meaningless. Some destroyed Russian tanks. A column in the open (but not destroyed). Some dead Russian troops, etc. all mean nothing in the big scheme of things. That anyone tries to use such images, as our media and government does, to tell a bigger story, is proof in itself that it is deliberate propaganda/info ops.
Think about WW2. Dead US Marines and destroyed amtracks and scattered equipment on the beach at Tarawa. The failure of the Navy to understand neep tides, which caused landing craft to get hung up on coral reefs they thought they could clear, causing Marines to have to wade for hundreds of yards to the beach under murderous fire. Those images could be used to “prove” that the US had no ability to fight in the Pacific. They were stupid, incompetent and killed in droves. The failure to bring sufficient clean drinking water to the troops that survived the bloody landing at Peleliu would be further proof that Japan was going to win. Look at the Kaserine pass. Disaster for the US! Rommel is going to kick US ass in North Africa. Americans are so soft and their equipment dreadfully inadequate. Germany will rule for a thousand years!
The Moskva? How many ships did the US and Brits lose in WW2? That’s what happens in war, especially peer to peer war.
Catching on at all, Kaiser? That’s the game you’re a part of. It reminds me of bratty children mocking adults.
Eric –
Glad you mentioned Peleliu! Not many have heard about that battle. The highest casualty ratio ratio of any Pacific landing..
Yet about one year later, Japan’s Emperor agreed to surrender because he thought the Japanese people were at risk of being being eradicated if the war continued..
My dad was on Peleliu, after Cape Glouchester and Guadalcanal. In retrospect this disaster was caused by command failure at several levels, beginning with the 1st Marine Division commanding officer – “Rupe the Dupe” and going up the chain to Nimitz in Hawaii..
JoeC100,
God bless your Dad. To have survived three major campaigns in the Pacific was a borderline miracle in itself. What that man went through……
Therein, IMO, lies relevant important facet of what we are experiencing today. We haven’t a fought a peer on peer war in decades, generations really. VN wasn’t peer on peer, but close enough, all things considered. Look at what happened; the casualties were high (though nothing like WW2) and the American public couldn’t take it because they couldn’t see that so much death and maiming and destruction was worth whatever we thought we might gain. Since then, we’ve fought a seriously disadvantaged third world military in Iraq, some banana republics’ small troop detachments and some pissed off goat herders with crappy old AKs, RPGs and IEDs. No fun, for sure, if you’re under fire from any of that, but a universe away from a war against a large, well armed, well led, determined force. I think this is one reason the news of a ship being sunk, a helo or two being shot down, or a couple thousand men KIA or a few dozen tanks being destroyed seems shocking and is persuasive to Americans that Russia is losing (notice we never hear about UKR casualties and losses). Americans – including military leadership – have lost all perspective of what real war really is. It’s all fun and games and narratives for the public to watch the volunteer military go get them damn Ruskies; until the bodies start coming home by the thousands every week and a draft is kicked off to fill depleted ranks; or worse, the bombs start landing in your home town. IMO, Russia knows this about the US and will use it to their advantage.
see here you are either a troll assigned to this site spreading FUD or a useful idiot. You state so many ukrop propaganda claims as factual data , with zero intention to double check their validity. Every single link and source you take as gospel came from ukrop propaganda or MSM which even the blind and deaf know running a massive IO against russia..
you weaving of lies presented as facts and then arguing these lies as if they are real smack of hasbara astroturfing 101
Might want search for “Maskirovka” to understand what that “dumb”tank column was doing there. This tactic has been successfully used in the battles of Stalingrad and Kursk, as well as operation Bagration, among others.
Sun Tzu said, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”Seems Mr. Rayburn doesn’t seem to know if it’s time to take a dump or wind his watch. It has also been said, “Never underestimate your opponent” No wonder the US has trouble finding its way around a battlefield. Men like Mr. Rayburn are “Colonels” that are leading the troops. And a Greater One than Sun Tzu said, “if the blind lead the blind they’ll both fall into the ditch.” We have not only fallen into the ditch. We won’t even take our foot off the accelerator!
Ukrainie/NATO seem to have hit Russian fuel depo 100km inside Russia that was supplying fuel to Donbas.
Looks like NATO is going to attack Russia on its own territory. Russia has been poor in responding to strikes on its territory. This is the third. They need to do something big if they are going to deter increasing attacks.
I’m surprised their air defence did not take that missile out.
I get their approach is methodical but this war is getting very dirty and time is not on Russia’s side as NATO is getting bolder.
One big difference between Russian and most NATO generals is NATO generals are fat and lazy and looking for next job in politics or lobbying. They no longer lead troops on ground so that battle fear and sharpness goes. Like politicians they manage from miles away.
Russian generals are still on the ground leading their troops in situations. That’s also why more get killed. But it also gives them an edge I think and a desire to get it right and finish faster as the Russian generals have as much risk of dying as the lowest squaddie.
I responded to a post by Walrus at Pat Lang’s site where he had said that it was difficult to get the other side of the picture in Ukraine by suggesting he look at Telegram channels by Russians in the field and copy and paste to Google Translate, or to look at this English language Donetsk news site. It wasn’t approved for publication.
Looking at Telegram I found a poster named Larry C Johnson, and this was his most recent post which to my mind is well worth reading today …
https://sonar21.com/going-to-war-with-russia-over-ukraine-may-be-suicide-for-america/
walrus knew better but he is still too scared to be banned by pat lang
No need to use google translate for telegram. the mobile app can translate once translation is enabled in settings. On a desktop, use yandex browser, but do not go to the telegram app. Yandex will translate.
Sorry. This is the site I meant to link to ..
https://dan-news.info/en/
Rayburn is saying the same things about the weaknesses of the Russian military that virtually all of the other retired (and active) brass are publicly expressing – one exception being Col Douglas Macgregor (US Army, retired). I know about Ritter, but I think he max attained was O4. The phenomenon seems to begin with O5s and is especially strong with O6s.
I think it quite unusual that all of this brass, especially the retired variety, would independently arrive at the same assessment of a complicated low information situation – and that assessment is the exact same as what the media is putting out there – unless (a). Their conclusions are based on glaringly obvious facts on the ground (i.e. 2+2 = 4) or (b). They are a bunch of ditto heads involved in an information operation.
With regards to (a), where would retired brass obtain sufficient information to make a sound assessment? No one is handing them a complete portfolio of IC product. As you note, Larry, there is ample evidence contrary to their assessment. I don’t see them addressing any of that. Given contrary evidence, that is not addressed and that doesn’t even result in nuanced differences in assessments from the various individual brass, I have to conclude that they are all engaged in, at least, some kind of potent group think scenario, but maybe, willfully, a straight up info op.
What amuses me is that all of these people were leadership in an organization that howled and wrung hands any time the US military or NATO budget was within a mile of the chopping block because of the threat represented by Russia. So were they wrong/lying about Russian capabilities then or are they wrong/lying now?
Speaking of clowns, have you read this :
https://turcopolier.com/horse-foot-and-guns/
This is unhinged.
You did right to leave that cesspit.
And I’m glad I’ve found you here.
Yes, I agree. Beyond unhinged. Flat our insane.
maybe just maaaaybe , pat lang tried to signal he need help because he posted napoleon pix on that article reminding everyone the folly and failure of napoleon campaign in russia lol
i agree with LJ the anti neocon col lang now lost his mind and being controlled by this lithuanian TTG who use SST and lang as IO platform
truly disgusting to see SST and lang devolved into another creature of neocon
I wouldn’t rule the good colonel out just yet. He’s been holding down the fort for a long time. He is a man of courage, scholarship, insight and intelligence. It is clear to me that something about the invasion triggered a deep emotional response; perhaps something as basic as Mar’s last gift to a warrior, but too late for the warrior. At the same time, he had surgery performed. He likes his cocktail hour (as do I) and he is no doubt on pain medication. That’s a mixture that could easily lead to uncharacteristic, clouded judgment. TTG, on the other hand, has always been a dimwitted horse’s ass. Col. Lang has criticized TTG’s towing the neo-Marxist state line many times in the past. TTG was kept around, IMO, for a counter balance and to reveal to the observant the mindset of the deep state. In fact, Col Lang has basically said as much in so many words. I do think TTG has taken advantage of Col Lang’s present compromised state. Let’s see if that perpetuates. It might not.
I appreciate your charitable streak, but the vicious way he turned on me and Patrick Armstrong was cowardly and dishonorable. He didn’t even have the balls to call me and talk it out. Just sent an email telling me my right to write was ended.
Larry,
Got it. That happened to others as well; albeit they never really did exercise the editing rights. It could have been some kind of overdue clean-up of loose ends. I wasn’t aware that the ungentlemanly reaction to whatever switch flipped in his mind included Patrick and you. That alters my outlook.
Eric,
I take no joy in revealing this. It is very sad. Pat was a friend for 23 years. I held him in high regard. But when we get old there is a tendency to reveal the true person. I’m sad to have learned this side of Pat. I can give you a long list of people who thought they were friends of Pat and he turned on them viciously. Once is a mistake. But multiple time is a pattern of behavior.
I follow two accounts on Twitter:
@RWApodcast – Two Russian guys who are surprisingly measured & accurate. I say surprisingly because I was raised to think Russians were propaganda-spouting automatons. I haven’t seen them put a foot wrong so far.
@ArmchairW – I am no judge of military matters but my gut tells me this guy is the real deal. He’s been shredding Osint and NATO happy talk for weeks. Judge for yourself.
It’s amazing that we have to go to two anonymous Twitter accounts for facts, but there we are.
So this is my first post on this site and I am encouraged that people are actually critically thinking about Russia’s “special operation” in the Ukraine. I am a retired Army LTC (you can read my bio if you are bored) and I just want to say that there are many retired military officers that don’t buy into the party line if you will. In other words (and through our own independent and learned analysis) we know Russia will prevail militarily…I’ll bet my Bronze Stars on it.
It is shameful and a true sign of the times that so many active duty and retired officers can’t get out of the Cold War mentality e.g. that Russia is and always was a “paper tiger”.
Many of us recall WWII history…wherein Germany killed somewhere between 70% and 80% of its combat power in the Russian Motherland…that’s not to say that the US and other allies didn’t throw in an “assist” to bring the war to a conclusion but my point is that the Russian military even poorly led and equipped kicked Hitler’s ass.
Bottom line folks…Russia has probably some of the best equipped and led military forces out there. Let me put it to you this way–and this is my own hypothesis–It’s not that US military forces are all that good (some are) it’s more that everyone else sucks so bad. That gap is closing especially in the case of Russia and China…India as well.
I’ll close by saying that the vocal or publicized retired Army Officers are deep state careerists who would say anything or do anything to get themselves promoted or a sweet deal with the military industrial complex. I have little respect for them and I have personally seen them screw up a battlefield while they fumble f*ck their way to the top ranks.
Have faith brothers and sisters…there is a whole cadre of retired officers out there that get it.
i heard theres many grumbling among USAF officers in CAOC during the FUKUS cruise missile bombardment into syria. Those officers knew how effective Russian and Syrian A2AD in intercepting western subsonic missiles but they are disgusted by the trump admin claiming 100% strike success rate.