What if the Prigozhin “Coup” is Maskirovka? I want to explore that possibility. Earlier today (Saturday on the east coast of the U.S.) I was sketching out a piece with the catchy title, “PRIGOZHIN — PUTSCH OR PLOY?” Well, that swell idea was blown away like the Kakhovka Dam when the narrative about the Prigozhin plan to march on Moscow and personally strangle Russian Defense Minister Shoigu went full-on Nadia Comăneci — i.e., back flip. Prigozhin ordered “his” troops back to their bases, cut a deal with the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to go into exile and will face no judicial punishment. WHAT????? No bloodshed? No miles of burning tanks? And no Mussolini neck tie for Vladimir Putin? What the hell?!!
Man, you could feel the disappointment and frustration emanating from the Washington establishment. The political equivalent of premature ejaculation. Last night (Friday) you could hear the popping of champagne corks and popcorn as media and intelligence officials huddled around computer screens awaiting images of a distraught Putin running naked away from the Kremlin. Biden and his team remind me of Wiley Coyote in terms of the despair they suffer as they watch their harebrained schemes to catch Putin crash and burn.
While I cannot firmly dismiss the possibility that Prigozhin attempted this coup on his own (or with the encouragement of an outside backer), I want to present the Maskirovka scenario.
Let us start with these facts:
- The Wagner Group was established by Russian intelligence organizations and funded by the Russian Government. Many in the West mistakenly believe that Prigozhin has deep pockets and is paying Wagner’s bills and, despite having ZERO military experience, is the commander of the outfit. As the Russians say, NYET!
- Russia is considered by the U.S. and the rest of NATO as a dictatorship. Prigozhin has been shooting his mouth off for months spouting threats against the Russian military and, indirectly, at Putin but has suffered no arrest or sanction. Does this mean Russia is not a dictatorship?
- Prigozhin ostensibly launched the coup, according to his own words on Friday, because the Russian MOD hit an encampment of Wagner troops training for war with missiles, shells and rockets. But the alleged video of the incident showed no casualties. Today, Prigozhin backed away from that claim and now insists he was just protesting the MOD’s move to bring the Wagner Group into the Russian Army.
- The Russian Government waited about 12 hours before sending police/military forces to the Wagner Group headquarters in St. Petersburg. Little sense of urgency.
- Prigozhin reportedly ordered a column of Wagner troops to go from Rostov on Don to Moscow to dethrone Shoigu and maybe General Gerasimov. Take a look at the map. That is a distance of almost 1200 kilometers. How was that column of trucks and tanks supposed to refuel and cover that distance in less than 20 hours?
How about this as an explanation? The entire coup narrative was generated to allow for the movement of Russian military forces to areas north and west of Voronezh without raising the alarm among NATO planners. Russia was moving forces to stop coup plotters as opposed to building up forces for a new axis of offense.
It appears that the roots of the narrative that Prigozhin was going to betray Russia starts in 2022. Someone with ties to Western intelligence had a relationship with Prigozhin and began sounding him out about collaborating with the West. Prigozhin let his Russian intel bosses know about the pitch and the Russians decided to build an op that would present Prigozhin as a disgruntled patriot, boiling in anger at the incompetence of Russian leaders. The Russians fed this by letting Prigozhin launch vicious verbal attacks on Shoigu and Gerasimov and, if we are to believe the Jack Teixeira discord leaks, even passed intel on the locations of Russian troops to his intel handler.
Here is the interesting part of this hypothesis — who made the decision to launch Prigozhin? A credible argument can be made that the Prigozhin’s Western handlers decided that Friday was the day and ordered him into action. But I think this was stage managed in the Kremlin. Putin and his intel chiefs knew what the West was trying to foment in Russia and realized that Ukraine and NATO were reeling from their feckless counter offensive and its attendant massive losses in men and materiel. Why not use the coup attempt as a good cover story for the mass movement of troops all along the line between Moscow and Rostov on Don?
This is a way to move Russian troops to areas north of Belgorod without drawing the unwelcome attention of NATO ISR platforms. Move the troops closer to the border and then disperse them. Which means Russia found a way to reinforce troops on a new potential axis of attack that will create a nightmare for NATO planners.
Think of the coup as rabbit running across an open field. Hungry predators hiding in the forest may be tempted to expose themselves in an effort to snag a bunny. Did some of the reactions in Russia to news of the suspected coup help Russian counter intelligence identify people in positions of authority in Russia who, until now, quietly rooted for Ukraine? Maybe.
I also want to entertain a hilarious possibility. Did Prigozhin scam his western handlers out of millions of dollars? Yevgeny does have a criminal past and is known for sticky fingers. Did he draw on his criminal past and fleece the British or the Americans? Could be a terrific story.
Anyway, after less than 24 hours of drama, we are left with the mournful, but beautiful voice of Peggy Lee singing, Is That All There Is?
Prigozhin’s convoy had no air cover. The convoy would have been sitting ducks easily wiped out by Russian jets strafing the vehicles. I don’t believe it was a coup.
Sadly only the Russians knows about what really happened.
The United States and the West would know what happened if they weren’t so delusional.
I smell a MI666 rat.
Prig is not an honorable man and he must have a price. His last price was an armed robbery.
Rolling on Moscow with a column during a SMO with all surveillance assets on full alert, wasn’t he a little concerned his column would to be mistaken for Ukes.
Nah. You guys have got this all wrong. This wasn’t a coup. Here in the USA, we know what a real coup attempt looks like. Why, we had one just a few years back, January 6.
Real coups are unarmed and look like a bunch of ordinary people just having a bit of unexpected fun. In real coups, you get invited, even guided, into the seat of government by the secret police. Real coups, your leader immediately turns on you, washes his hands of you.
This was no coup.
K. Talaat – the MI6 is talking its stupid propaganda through YOU! Sadly, you know and understand NOTHING neither about Prigozhin nor about Russians 🙁 Do NOT repeat this nonsense for the fear to sound as a second-rate propagandist THEY want you to be, mate.
No, we Russians do not know except for the fact that this could have resulted in epic shit. There is still much speculation.
I’ve lived in Russia for 40 plus years. My gut feeling is that this was no maskirovka – too complicated for the way Russian state apparatus works. And if you look carefully at Putin’s emotions during his speech , you’ll see that he was genuinely very angry. To say that this is maskirovka is sugarcoating this mess. But apparently God is with Russia. Lukashenko is very popular in Russia right now. Unbelievable.
So angry that he let a guy guilty of treason off the hook? Yeah, right.
Putin is a cool headed leader & does not let himself get emotionally involved. He does what needs to get done with minimum fanfare. He is no big mouth Biden.
Going to Belarus is not being off the hook I suppose.
Mohale Thoka – NO, going to Belarus is not being off the hook:
Prigozhin and his boys are going to train a Belarussian PMC and have a LOT of work ahead of them! This is neither an exile nor a vacation. This is what Putin wanted him to do.
And WHY are you all, including the most respectful analysts like Scott Ritter so up-in-arms about Prigozhin not being a military man??? This is just SO stupid, forgive my French! He has never pretended to be – he is a MANAGER of his PMC, i.e. a person who supplies salaries and logistics, deals with bureaucracy, so “his boys” could do their brilliant work on the front lines and not worry about comfortable places to sleep when they have a chance! THAT is WHY they need him and love him for his work well-done.
You nailed it Larry. Your speculation is the only explanation that makes any sense. Further as you point out, I bet the FSB has identified rogue elements in government and military who are not onboard with the program and who are in process of being very secretly dealt with – set up and played beautifully.
It is absurd to think it was a half-hatched spur of the moment coup by Prigozhin who was left in place for months after such theatrical plays of publicly attacking Russian military command.
Also perplexing with regard to how many of our friends in the alt truther community fell for the cartoon Keystone Cops narratives.
It was announced on Monday thru state owned media that the criminal investigation against Prigozhin remained active.
BTW, a large Wagner group was moving to Borisoglebsk-45 which was far more nerve racking than going to Moscow.
Moscovites went on with the usual weekend routines, I didn’t even see more police than usual. Guys from Chinese embassy nearby did not appear to be bothered much either.
I laugh at the US mass media. “Experts say Putin weakened”
and Biden can barely function, Hunter is more of a dirtball than a Republican campaign strategist could dream of.
Can’t wait for the historic munchkin to give the next press briefing. Expect her to say that Putin is capable of anything as
the country collapses. There are a few saying Ukraine is done by fall(like it would be wrapped up by summer 2022). I don’t think so. We may be going to a new stage.
Dangerous times indeed. This could spread fast-Poland, Serbia.
All I know is Europe is Russia’s front yard. No one fks with me in my front yard.
Larry has connections and an analytical mind. I think he is right with a 87% probability.
This campaign ids lost and any fantasy will do . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-ukraina-grandioznaya
They shot down 4 helicopters. Doesn’t look like no air cover.
So far I have not seen any official statement from MoD about planes or helicopters shot down, only telegram report from unofficial sources. Maybe there was an official report, and I missed it, but I did look.
Until a state spokesperson or media reports loss of RF personnel or equipment, I remain unconvinced it happened. There are just too many “fishy” things about this whole story!
Exactly – no statement from MoD . . . . . although flip side – perhaps losing 4 helos & a fixed wing may not have played well with the public. Rumours of coupes are always surrounded by lies, half truths & omissions as both sides try & control perception
Larry, Bob,
A bit expensive for maskirovka? According to RTTV (https://rtvi.com/news/myatezh-prigozhina-okonchen-itogi-i-posledstviya-pohoda-chvk-vagner-na-moskvu/#bounce):
“Telegram channels reported losses
The Fighterbomber telegram channel on the evening of June 24 reported that as a result of the actions of the Wagner PMC over the past day, the following were lost:
three Mi-8 MTPR helicopters;
one each Mi-8, Ka-52 and Mi-35;
Il-18 aircraft.
Also , the Rybar telegram channel, former press officer of the Ministry of Defense Maxim Zvinchuk, reported losses in clashes with Wagner . According to him, “from the actions of the Wagnerites” aviation “lost seven aircraft”, as a result of which “more than 20 pilots” could die.
“During the day, from the actions of the rebellious Wagner PMC, they [the Russian Aerospace Forces] lost seven aircraft, five of which did not carry any weapons. Among them are three Mi-8 MTPR – specialized scarce electronic warfare helicopters. Also, an air control post based on the Il-18 aircraft with the entire crew was shot down. For comparison, since the beginning of the counter-offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not been able to shoot down a single of our aircraft,” Rybar writes.
Losses of other types and branches of troops are still unknown, the publication says.”
Need to wait for official confirmation but the sources are pretty good as far as this conflict goes.
It was only last week that President Putin had all the journos in for a special 2 hour Q and A. Very likely he got them all on board with the ‘coup’ reporting.
As to shot down aircraft, if the Russians have radio controlled tanks I’ll put hard cash they have radio controlled aircraft too.
No pilots were harmed during the filming of this coup.
I’m going with the Maskirovka angle.
In the late 1980s. The Russian version of the (USA) Space Shuttle, the ‘Boran’ (I believe)
was both radio controlled, & human.
I believe it made at least 1 flight unmanned. Your opinion is not entirely out of the realm of possibility.
Yet, until real facts emerge, it’s difficult to know what the entire episode was, or is.
Certainly had everyone’s attention. The most rumors generated from MSM & every YT vloggers, since the Carbon fiber submarine went missing.
You are right. I would go with the “No Russian soldiers were harmed in this staged “coup” thing. Until we actually SEE otherwise. All is very rehearsed and perfectly staged! Wagners are the most patriotic people devoted to their country, comrades and the supreme commander. You need to be a Russian – or as smart as Larry is – to understand the ruse 🙂
Putin plays his King Gambits not only to perfection but on multiple boards at once – and wins them all! Slava to Putin, slava to mother-Russia!
I have to agree with BelBoy. Blowing up equipment even if the equipment is old and killing Russian soldiers can not be considered fake.
That’s if it is true that manned helicopters/planes were shot down. If this information was not out there. Then the hypothesis is very possible. Now why would Putin not arrested Prigozhin and send him to Belarus? That’s still odd..
US sacrifice Ukraine for it’s goals and you are saying few bits of military hardware is expensive for encircling Ukrainian troops
Seems like lots of reports, but has anyone seen any video footage or other hard evidence ??
If the reports of downed Russian helicopters and dead pilots/crew are true, then the Maskirovka angle seems less likely, or at least prone to unexpected results. Many Wagner soldiers were apparently mislead about their mission , and this might explain why they fired on the helicopters, but those deaths would normally still require that those issuing the false orders be brought to justice.
Unless the Russian gov’t, MoD and security services were actually involved as posited by Larry, then the deaths could be attributed to the fog of war and simply added to the SMO total. But that’s still a major OOPS, as helicopters and especially their crews don’t grow on trees.
If this was a real coup attempt, it fits with the past US/UK/NeoCon Keystone Cops, poorly conceived/executed operations. Ya, blow up Nordstream… Russia will surely go on the offensive… er, just more SMO 🙁
Next, the Kerch bridge… damn, they just fixed it, so we need to beg the US/UK/ZATO for more, bigger, longer reaching weapons… result, just more SMO…
OK, blow up the dam, THAT will incite a Russian offensive to send this where the NeoCons need to save their traitorous hides, and leave a Nazi-insurgent-filled Ukraine on Russia’s doorstep. A tactic right up there with the door-knock revealing a flaming bag of poop, adolescent behaviour. And Russia merely serves up more devastating SMO.
Now Nuland/Soros takes off the gloves, activates “Prigozhin’s coup” to have a machiavellian victory to present to the ZATO meeting in Vilnius… more OOPS.
Next moves from Putin and the Russian military will speak volumes on exactly what this was, doubtful the full story will be made available in our lifetime. At least it presents a welcome opportunity to get the the NeoCons clearly hoist by their own flaming petard in front of their ZATO compatriots.
Huntergate may be sucking up all the airtime in the US, but the rest of the world is now watching Ukraine closely and will judge and react based on how ZATO proceeds.
De-dollarization proceeds apace.
Crackhead-gate is actually very quiet in USA MEDIA, besides Fox. & they, along with every other MSM outlet, spent much more airtime on the Sub that was known to have unfortunately met its demise, bk 8 days ago on the Sunday before. Rather that tell everyone this, it was used as a distraction & they created false hope for everyone hoping they could be rescued.
It’s a fortunate thing to have these people like Larry Johnson, & others, to give people at least a fighting chance to discern the possibilities of reality, vs the 1 track narrative the Gov & MSM present. I love how Washington Post & a few others, can break stories that even the Patriot Act equipped branches of law enforcement, claim they were not aware of.
Yet, they have time to spy on 300k American citizens that were just accidents of resource usage?? OK, let’s all believe that now. 👍
Prigozhin had a number of Pantsir S1 units, a lot 9f MANPADS, and reportedly some Buks or Tors too.
Also, it is possible that Prigozhin’s outburst was genuine, but it was Kremlin that pushed him over the edge.
One simple problem is PMC concept itself.
The very idea is held with contempt in Russia. And even in the West PMCs were operating in savage lands far away from metropoly. Textbook examples should be West-India company and both Ost-India companies, and they operated across the ocean
Maybe Prigozhin saw himself as the man making a history, breaking the trends and teaching Russia to embrace PMC (and domestic PMC!) idea.
However after Bakhmut it was clear Wagner was moved to sidelines, seen as a finished experiment, to dissect, cherry-pick and incorporate into regular structures.
There were news about other structures (I think regular army but do not quite remember) enlisting prisoners for example.
Wagner was loved to sidelines to be forgotten and slowly “evaporated”
There would be no pages for Prigozhin in history textbooks, he would not be a go-to man in a newfound branch of economy. From fame and prominence back to nothing.
He could genuinely take it badly.
He also could think “nothing to loose”, if Wagner case was already closed than at least go with a bang not a whimper and gain a non-zero however miniscule chance to change the trend.
OTOH the Kremlin needed some obvious “in your face” demonstration “why PMC is a bad idea” to cancel the media fame Wagner accumulated for the year and to end the implied dispute on Russian laws.
For Africa and other distant places FSB can always install some foreign shell company to insulate a de facto Russian PMCs from Russian laws prohibiting them. And domestically Russia does not need those.
Bakhmut fallen, experiment run its course, the last data had to be extracted before the lab would be locked forever.
Actually, an attempt at mutiny probably IS a very important data for any statehood. What would go if someone really tries? How fast, how vast, etc.
Measure PMCs danger in a live acid test should had been a valueable data per se.
So my gut feeling suggests that Prigozhin’s desperate outburst was genuine, but he was manipulated by Kremlin to went off the rail.
THIS is a much more probable explanation.
I subscribe to it 100%.
Too much damage done for a maskirovka.
“if you move to take Moscow, take Moscow$
I suggest that Prigozhin’s behavior, whether genuine revolt or psyop, is a consequence of the transnational treason of the wealth-owning class in Russia. Prigozhin is old enough to remember the bad old days during the late Soviet Union and early Russian Federation when foreign oligarchs were the power behind authority. Yes, most had Russian citizen paperwork, but not only did they have no loyalty to Russians but instead held them, and still hold them, in deep contempt. There is genuine fear that authority will not eventually be bribed into committing treason against the people (again).
The root of the problem is the tendency towards oligarchy which lies within all civilizations, across religious, cultural, ethnic, and racial boundaries. Wealth segregates into a tiny sliver of society, who inevitably begin to behave increasingly badly. When their ethnoreligious composition differs from those over whom they rule, historically they tend to behave badly in some proportion to the difference. So, any society that develops to the point of creating excess wealth faces the problem of how to handle the disposition of the wealth created.
Russia’s problem was that after the fall of the Soviet Union and the horror of a decade under neoliberalism, they did not yet have a self-sustaining pool of managerial talent adequate to building and maintaining a post-communist economy. This was a ‘skills inside of heads’ problem rather than one of lack of cognitive capability. The ‘stupid Russians’ trope was always a lie, part of the dehumanization/othering campaign waged by globalists to gin up hostility towards those they wished to conquer among those they wished to use like food animals to do the conquering for them (looking at you, Ukraine, and America).
Putin, as the leader of and faction balancer within a broad-based movement to rebuild an independent Russia, was faced with conflicting coupled strategic objectives. First, Russia needed rapid reindustialization both for production of goods and services for their civilian economy (to allow their people to live in dignity adequate for affordable family formation and civilizational perpetuation) and for defense (to ensure that no one could take away from them what they build). Second, Russia needed the establishment of rule of law based more on popular respect and support (first world/high trust society) than merely upon fear of retribution from government authorites (third world/low trust society). The arbitrary lawlessness of both the Soviet period and especially the neoliberal period had to end for there to be both the predictability necessary for sustainable economic development and for the system of law and governance (inclusive of trade, immigration, and foreign relations) to actually protect the citizens of Russia from threats to their well-being and sovereignty.
These objectives conflicted because of the lack of managerial talent loyal to Russia. The oligarchs were necessary, at least as an interim measure, to work towards the first objective. This was done in part by having a 10% flat tax. Their incentive was that they were free to get very rich. However, they had to be constrained so that their wealth could not be used to subvert federal institutions and turn Russia into a slave of international predators, as was done during the neoliberal period. Setting the dyscivilizational merchant loose to develop the economy without decoupling their wealth from power would have undermined the second objective, leading to their ruin.
The purpose of decoupling wealth from power is to ensure that power remains inside institutions of authority at least indirectly accountable to the ruled (to the people), and that institutions of authority do not become (as they are in the formerly United States) merely administrative machinery carrying out the diktats of those with wealth to bribe (or otherwise incentivize) individuals within them into carrying out the will of the oligarchy. The mechanics of decoupling are multifaceted and I am certain I am missing some points. However, they at least include prohibition of state officials owning property abroad (including foreign currency in foreign financial institutions). Bribery can be far more sophisticated than simply handing someone a suitcase of cash, and every loophole closed will be challenged and accompanied with efforts to find new ones. This is an area that needs exploration, because the West is going to need to development similar strategies.
Establishing a system constraining oligarchic power is one thing. Maintaining it in the inevitable face of sustained oligarchy efforts to undermine it is another. The existential civilizational crisis, of which the fighting in western Ukraine is but a skirmish, has strained trust that authority will not betray the people. I think it is highly likely that Prigozhin’s rebellion (if real) is rooted in fear of treason against Russia on behalf of the globalists, not advocation for it. Thus, globalists would be fools to see this instability as some kind of victory for their cause. Moreover, the primary pirates’ cove base of operations for globalism, America, will see similar instability in the years and decades to come because those who currently rule over us are at least as degenerate and corrupt as Russia’s ruling class ever was.
________
“Ruin comes when the trader, lifted up by wealth, becomes ruler.”
Plato, 367 BC
“Merchants have no country. The mere spot they stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that from which they draw their gains.”
Thomas Jefferson
“Our future generations will be born without Rothschild chains around their wrists and ankles. This is the best present we can provide.”
V.V. Putin (unverified)
I truly hope that now Putin puts Surovikin in charge of the army and fast. THEN “we will start for real”.
Uncommonly good commentary.
Correct weight B.B.
The Collapse of The Russian State – has just been cancelled.
Again!
“Just when will The Russian State collapse, mommy & daddy and Manifest Evil swept away like the Floods of Ancient Egypt?” Well, well. That is proving a difficult question, Kiddies. Our Geo-Political Alchemy isn’t working like it used to.
On the other hand, The Community of Nations, that other land that hangs out somewhere near DisneyLand, otherwise known as The West, is looking none too flash.
Factually, their Big Ukrainian Project is in The Dog House and nothing will save it, not even prayers to their benevolent God.
Washington’s Ukraina Grandioznaya Skhema – The Graveyard of This Empire.
https://les7eb.substack.com/p/washingtons-ukraina-grandioznaya
Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA
Patrick Lancaster is one of the “westerners” – but really a true Russian – that covers EVERYTHING about this war honestly and directly from where it happens. Look how real Russians LOVE their Wagners and celebrate them!
Thank you, Larry, for pointing out this video on your Telegram. You are THE BEST!
Certainly a possibility, the almost vapid Russian govt response to this villainy does raise a lot of questions. Thank you!
I agree – it will be interesting to see how Russian assets have been redeployed to deal with the “coup.” That will tell us a lot. It would be a fantastic deep-fake, starting with Prigozhin trash-talking Putin a few months ago. These guys have been buddies since childhood, so the “ruse” angle is plausible, and given credence by the tepid response.
Saying “it’s no biggie” is not a typical Russian response to a coup, to say the least. Judging by the media response here, if a ruse, effective in getting everybody off-balance creaming their pants thinking Putin’s in trouble.
Did you read the latest by Simplicius76? He seems to have forgotten his own prior insistence that Prigozhin is just a civilian mouthpiece while Wagner is run by military professionals.
I just want one question answered: how come Russian military intelligence didn’t know of this “coup” while it was still in the making? If it didn’t it is more incompetent than any local police station. If it did, then it was a staged operation.
Simplicius seems to be a Russian who is either a current or retired Russian govt person… most likely a military or intel officer. He probably realized that he should go along with the maskirovka and pretend Putin is in big trouble.
Larry Johnson is not a Russian so he is free to speak his mind without feeling like he’s betraying Mother Russia.
His style of writing, choice of grammar and use of words suggests he is a Brit to me.
He is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saul_David
Interesting hypothesis. Any supporting refs?
Interesting indeed. I guess an analysis of writing styles ties them together? Vocabulary, sentence structure, and grammatical ticks etc.
I doubt that. Simplicius uses American spelling.
Precisely, even ineluctably.
And Perfidious Albion is the (western) master of deception. Poor neocons!
Maskirovka rings like Venice’s Masked Ball, when stilettos appeared from nowhere, scores settled, the canals delivering the Committee of Ten’s victims at dawn.
The (eastern) Byzantine ring of the whole affair, Venetian, is perfidious indeed.
Slav or from COMECOM nation – yes, most probably. Russian – I don’t think so. The way he speaks, some subtle mistakes he makes in translation occasionally… No.
He might be of Russian/Slavic origin, but he is in the West. He definitely is not Russian (ex-)serviceman doing the maskirovka.
Simplicius by his own admission doesn’t translate Russian mostly relies on machine translations
” Prigozhin is just a civilian mouthpiece while Wagner is run by military professionals. ”
That is correct, although Simp does accept Prig may be more than he seems. He may well have played the part he was given.
But he is certainly not the owner, nor the commander.
It beggars belief that Russian military intelligence did not have their own people embedded in the top echelon of the Wagner group. Some overtly, some covertly.
Some of those covert assets would have had standing orders to put a bullet through Progozhin the moment he tries to pull a stunt like this.
I honestly do not believe that this was anything other than a stunt, and the lack of bloodshed and the speed with which Progozhin folded like a cheap tent reinforces that view.
Larry’s suggestion that this was all done to cover a redeployment of Russian troops hadn’t occurred to me, but I would have thought that if that were the case then it would require more than 48 hours of High Drama to complete such a move.
I personally still lean to the idea that this was planned to flush out any 5th columnists inside Russia, and to delude Zelensky and his backers into thinking that now is the time to redouble their efforts to feed as many Ukrainian troops as they could into the current meat-grinder.
But the alternative is that this is the best that anyone could come up with as far as a genuine coup is concerned. If so then it is, indeed, a remarkably piss-poor effort.
D- Must Do Better.
Yes I agree, this has mostly been theatre that is intended to play to the prejudices and preconceived notions of the neocons who fervently believe that Putin is a tyrant, there is a strong anti-Putin sentiment in Russia and that the Russian polity is rotten and brittle to the core. It is intended to encourage an even greater sacrifice of Ukrainian soldiers by sending them into the mincer as they have been for the last three weeks.
The neocons in the west are so myopic that they will believe that this was a genuine expression of a widely held sentiment that should be encouraged to flourish by sacrificing ever more young and not so young Ukrainian men.
The other benefit is that some traitors will have been flushed out of the woodwork.
I too doubt that there would have been sufficient time for redeployments of any significance.
I expect Prigozhin has done well out of it.
“piss-poor ”
Spot on.
If you set out to take Moscow, take Moscow
> to cover a redeployment of Russian troops
Good idea indeed.
Some months ago Russia also did a “chess move”, when we reacted to an Ukrainian offense in the south, removed our own units from out northern offensive and rushed them to reinforce south defence.
It was so obvious and expected, no one in NATO had a second thought. But suddenly, midway, those diverted troops made a turn and implemented a flank attack to encircle Ukrainian mother group.
Russia used Ukrainian push for maskirovka, to make a visible and expected love but with covert and unexpected real goals. When the real goal was revealed – Ukraine had no time left to counter it. Rather chessy…
So, yes. Whether Prigozin’s mutiny was real or pretense, RuArmy probably did use the chance to move troops while all the 5 eyes were mesmerised by the show
Isn’t the real objective to get Russian troops to the Kharkiv area to retake it. A Sharp turn move by Wagner on the way to Belarus to start that operation may be the real plan. Russian troops moving with Wagner toward Belarus as a possibility?
I have written a number of articles on Prigozhin. And I just finished one on the “mutiny” before I read this one and B’s at MoA. Simplicus is good at providing information but he lacks Larry’s analytical skills and fails sometimes to read between the lines and connect the dots. In any case, I had to update my article (and audio reading) suggest my readers read Larry’s article. I can find no fault with it.
https://open.substack.com/pub/julianmacfarlane/p/prigozhin-russias-mad-fool-or-maskirovka?
Maybe Russian intelligence did suspect this “drama” was in the making. Unlike the West, the Russians divulge less of their actual discoveries and plans, which panics and infuriates the US, UK and EU. If the Russians announced all of their plans, etc., it would be like one football team providing the other with their plans. And I am sure Russia may also be baiting the West with fallacies which is a nice touch.
By the way, in North India they have a perfect idiom to describe the deflated hopes in NATOstan of a coup in the Kremlin: Kharé Lund Pé Dhokhā, or KLPD for short. It literally means “cheating an erect penis”, something like “cocktease” but used in non sexual connotations.
That is superb. Thank-you!
Tom Petty sings”don’t go dragging my heart around.”
When the boys and me would drink a bit of beer and tequila we sang “ don’t go dragging my dick around.”
Prighozin has earlier indicated of his interest in finishing off Poland. Now his opportunity to start the destabilisation of the poles with bandera hatred. I give him 6 months for internal pole-ukrainian riots.
i think you may be on to something.
Wouldn’t that be something. Or Prigozhin agitates to have Poland commit suicide by invading either Belarus or the Ukraine.
Except now that the United States and the West have been punked, Prigozhin’s use for the Russians is probably at an end. When all this is over, if we are still alive, somebody will pin a medal on Prigozhin.
No, that’s what it means. The closest meaning is, “taking a (baseball) bat to an erect penis”, instantly deflating it. A “dhokha” is a small wooden cricket bat shaped instrument used to “wring” clothes in the olden days when we did not have washing machines. Imagine what happens when you hit an erect male appendage with a (baseball) bat! Not pleasant. And that is what all those who hoped for must have felt – a rapid, excruciatingly painful deflation of their hopes.
Well, Larry‘s metaphor of »premature …« is great. Used it already …
Many Ukro supporters got blue balls from this.
As the Brits say, too clever by half. Prigozhin was about to lose his company, July 1st, and he had a tantrum.
We gone from the UK leaders celebrating the imminent collapse of Russia to “OH SHIT!!!” in less than 12 hours.
BRAVO, Larry!!!
You are THE ONLY ONE who solved the puzzle – and brilliantly, I have to mention. Although previously in your comments – especially on Judge Nap – you discounted his antics, THIS analysis is pure gold!
One thing you forgot to mention – or did not even consider – is that just a FEW DAYS AGO Putin met with ALL important military correspondents and had 3-hour Q&A, out of which around half was held in secret. Although Peskov always says that he is constantly informed about “everything”, it is my personal belief that his eyes have been opened to the sad reality about things related to MOD commanders that Putin himself put in charge of his army – hence could not just fire without really serious proof of THEIR treason.
And maybe also for concern about a real coup by their collaborators? Tomorrow’s “free of work” and a strong suggestion for the residents of Moscow to stay home and not move around amidst the temporary established regime of counter-terrorist situation in Moscow can hint at this – strange, isn’t it? The Wagner’s “coup” has ended but the situation in Moscow only is still tense?
Actually, Aleks of Black Mountain was thinking along the same lines. But you’re right. Everyone else got stampeded by the social media.
Just dont spoil the party Larry – remember Russia is very weak 🙂 and Ukraine needs to attack, attack, attack RIGHT now with all reserves NATO assembled for it…
Yes, I also don’t believe in a real coup
– too little forces. out of 50K combat strong Wagner, less than 1K was involved. that is what 2%?? Where are the rest of 98%
– out of those involved, rank and file told on Telegram that they were ordered to reinforce positions as part of these movements.
– this miniscule force went to Rostov. Rostov-on-Don is a city of over 2 million and HQ of South Military District. Massive troops inside of the city , of all agencies, numbering many tens of thousands. Even more so since Feb 2022.
– they got to Rostov and went to Circus, literally, since it is next to HQ for military district. They could not, did not, and never intended to take it , and there is no way it would have worked (think Pentagon and above level of security with army forces near by to intercept and protect, underground facilities, envelopes with instructions for any possible scenario, etc).
– the march on Moscow is laughable to a Russian. Moscow is an agglomeration of 15 million plus with hundreds of thousands of garrisons in and around. Now, a portion of a thousand ‘Wagner fighters’ getting to Moscow will do exactly what?? Wave Yankee go home flags in front of US embassy??
Net result
– dry run (in case real coup is attempted) is done to flush out supporters, wavering crowd, etc. Many interesting results, including measuring public opinion.
– excuse to incorporate 98% of Wagner into army proper
– excuse to give Luka a tool, a loose cannon type with kuvalda (warhammer) as primary instruments. NATO ‘terrorists’, this guy can and would act against you, on you territory, without any laws. Russia stop him you say? What does Russia have to do with it? ‘We express concern that some of your officials have their heads smashed in’, no, ‘We are not involved’ (c) EU/NATO/etc.
– shut down any coup desires in Belorussia. Poland, you are training up to a hundred of fighters for city fighting in Minsk. Eh, good luck against massively better trained, equipped, supported, and when needed outside of the law local enforcement supplement.
Where and what are the names of the ‘lost pilots’? How many are real? Why deputy is Minister of Defense was in Rostov around the same time and also went to hang out with Wagner?
The situation in Moscow streets is not tense. People walk around,shopping sunbathing and everything.
However you have to account for “peak hours” in mass transit, especially Moscow Subway.
Regular working schedule creates two VERY distinct waves of human waves. It also tend to clog roads.
Especially in Sunday evening/Monday morning when many people return from rural “dachas” where they spend weekend.
A perfect opportunity to some terrorist act.
So, blunting this wave still makes sense.
Also it would somewhat aggravate citizens. Klemlin plays their toys with Prigozhin and regular folks have to change their plans twice in a row? What if people already went drunk counting for free Monday? What if they skipped laundry, etc? Consider this holiday a little candy given to little folks.
Larry, your article and the replies to comments are simply GENIOUS. BUT not so with your Subscription page: although I have subscribed – or so I thought – and posted comments in the past, I have been prompted to subscribe again (Maybe that is why my previous comment was not posted?) But your login to subscribe shows empty WP page and does not do what it’s supposed to do 🙁 Can you please check (or whoever is dealing with your web content) what’s up with it? THX
I totally agree with you. nailed it together. I say to gether because I know and have lived in Russia and being trained in pychology inter alia. Are the Russians so civilised that punishment for insurrection is being banised to another defacto part of Russia? It was a matroska moment. I have been told by my contacts that Russia will call for full mobilisation by end of August. Perhaps even declare martial law down the road.
Topolcats – I won’t be surprised if it happens as soon as tomorrow! And no, “punishment for insurrection is being banised to another defacto part of Russia?” is NOT. Progozhin is the “Putin’s private army”, remember? He ADMIRES Putin and he and his people are TRUE patriots highly respected and adored in Russia, so he would not go against his commander… unless it is all a clever ruse (which it was). He and some of his group will now be training Belorussian soldiers to their methods while some other parts will start/participate in the offensive from the north to Kharkov. Want a bet?
I agree with you. So I would be betting on our point of view. Today’s news also suggest the 2 heads of the stavka will be replaced by Drummin and Sovorikin (a good thing). This was also one of the demands of Prigozhin. I might add a diplomatic way for a former FSB head Putin to set aside two friend without them losing to much face. During this whole charade I was in contact with friends in Moscow. No panic, having lived through 4 coups . Panic is clearly evident in a real coup, buying water, candles, food which did not occur in Moscow. The silence of some contacts also tipped me off that this was a play by Tolstoy.
Super
Larry, Scott Ritter put up a brilliant explanation at 10am Eastern: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE2IqsAO-2M
Within hours his prophecies had come true.
Cast your mind to XX Committee, Century Ho and Operation Mincemeat. Suppose Prigozhin was a double agent for MI6 (for reasons that Ritter explains) and the whole of yesterdays media blitz was Information Warfare from all barrels, all day, with the talking heads fully briefed, maps ready, videos to hand all targeted at Russia with the aim of a bloodless regime change. From public outburst to Presidential threat the pace accelerated until just as the European press went to print the convoy reversed with honour restored and their leader took a pardoned holiday with a full suitcase courtesy of the FCDO Foreign Aid budget.
Trouble was, the public did not buy it; Prigozhin double-crossed the West; come this morning and Putin is much emboldened. Of course he and his minions knew about the plan and played along. Now his whole country sees the threat from the West, knows it cannot trust a word in the media and are now right behind closing this war as soon as possible. Hopefully the Ukrainian military see this as well. The media were taken, hook, line and sinker.
The Russian intent was possibly also designed to flush out the Ukrainians with false optimism, effect the deployments you suggest and, equally likely, expose enemy agents within. We shall see.
Sir,
This is a STING. No question in my mind. Just does not add up otherwise.
A couple of questions remain: Were there dead and equipments destroyed?
If so, proof.
Also how is Russia going to spin this to get themselves off the hook with the Russian people in terms of image, placate the Wagner fighters and eventually resuscitate Prigozgin?
Surely you can add to those points.
For me Mr Putin and others, with Prigozgin in person or by zoom, are having a glass of champagne and having a laugh.
No fucking way a man is going to organize a military coup against the Russian Government and then get asylum with a friendly country that is a trusted ally and be forgiven!
And the bridge that I have for sale?!
And then those 6 Billion!
Concession prize.
Bravo, the scum got stung. No DOUBT ABOUT IT!
So – with =<25,000 men – he took on the entire Russian government … which supplies all of his ammo and fuel? I think Larry’s theory is less crazy.
Well, I’m not discounting that they actually got within 200 km of Moscow, either without tanks, just road cars, or with some tanks on semis.
Doesn’t change things much anyway, just sayin’.
He expected regular soliders to switch to his side, and create a critical mass of supporters. He knows that many soldiers have problems with high ranking officers. It is common thing in every army, especially in times of war.
He even boasted that border guards they encountered supported them and let them pass. Of course they did. A dozen of guys armed with rifles would let freindly armored column pass, and probably an enemy one too.
The avalanche effect did not happen because Russians believe Putin more than Prigozhin. Simple as that.
Bob Sykes, – unfortunately, it is a Brit and the British propaganda talks in you and you don’t even understand! Wagners are HEROS in Russia, the MOST admired and loved army. Nobody ever was about to lose anything except for those who plotted against them – and now THEY are gone.
You, by any chance, do not write from Belarus? One can feel the influence of Belarusian television and the network of telegram channels of exalted bloggers from fugitive Ukrainians.
How can you seriously say that
“Wagners are HEROES in Russia, the most revered army” (?!)
Progozhin is “Putin’s private army” (?!)
“… he and his people are REAL patriots who are very respected and adored in Russia” (?!)
Have you done sociological research? No! Well, it’s complete bullshit.
I am from Russia, and my opinion is fundamentally different from what you are trying to inspire.
Prigogine is a sociopath, mentally unbalanced, with a criminal past and, in a certain sense, with a criminal present. It is a fact.
Wagner is half made up of long-term convicts. It is a fact.
Wagner is dominated by the camp subculture of prisoners. This is also a fact.
As for the conspiratorial versions of the background of what happened and various interpretations expressed here. Just listen to Putin’s appeal to the people. He called Prigozhin’s demarche a rebellion, a stab in the back and a betrayal. Dot.
Not many can be recalled as tough, categorical, straightforward appeals of Putin.
A Prigozhin fangirl is what we all needed here. You should use more caps in order to prove your point even more. I guess you have a poster of him above your bed, unless you are just writing this from an office in Kiev, of course.
Wag the Dog – War is show business
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aWFpwMZLK4
I’ve been entirely confused during this matter. Peggy Lee is apt, a soundtrack perfect for Alice and the Mad Hatter.
A fascinating hypothesis. I have my doubts though. This strange episode is likely to be extremely costly in political terms to Putin’s government. Essentially, because it made Russia look unstable and, arguably, makes Putin look weak and indecisive. That will only encourage Ukraine and the Collective West to persevere at a time when the patent failure of the spring offensive might otherwise have been a cause for despair/wakeup call.
Not really. Everyone in the Russian political structure lined up behind Putin. Not one dissenting voice. Compare that with the treatment Trump got from Pence and Pompeo and many other Republicans. Russia will follow this up by further crushing the Ukrainian military capability. Don’t dismiss the possibility that Putin briefed Xi and maybe Erdogan on what was afoot.
The complete silence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa speaks volumes. Recently, Modi had a closed door meeting with Nikolai Patrushev. Xi had meetings with Medvedev, Putin and Mitsushin. Lula had a long telephone call with Putin after the G7 and Ramaphosa was just in Moscow the other day. There is no way that whatever yesterday’s events were, no one in the Russian intelligence services saw it coming and that no one informed the BRICS and SCO leaders about it.
Blinken got to meet the entire top brass of China in Beijing. Biden met Modi. And both the Indian and Chinese leadership categorically refused to talk a word about Russia and forced Biden & co. to talk only business. This attitude speaks volumes about where they stand and how much they knew.
Yep, gotta go with the ruse theory. The glorious “Spring Offensive” has failed and the cornered West/NATO hyenas are desperate for escalation. Defusing that at this critical moment while all of the “Air Defense” assets are still in Europe and with the Vilnius summit coming up by feigning “internal discord” and raising the hopes of a Putin overthrow is brilliant!
Now Western intelligence can keep chasing their tails trying to foment this fantasy outcome, while Putin and the MOD keep methodically demilitarizing and de-Nazifying Ukraine. And keep bleeding the purses of the Neocons/EU vassals.
“When you are strong, appear to the enemy that you are weak”
I agree. Prigozhin is playing a very ancient and honored role in Russia– the Mad Fool. In the West, it’s Mad Max. Simplicius is great at present loads of factual information– but his problem is connecting the dots. Most of the time, Prigozhin is saying crazy stuff that everyone in Russia KNOWS is crazy — but which Westerners are inclined to accept. One has to remember that when P got out of prison as a young man, he was taken in by the KGB as an asset. As Putin says, “there is not such thing as a former KGB man”. Over at NewsForensics on Substack I have written a number of articles on Prigozhin. When this event happened I predicted, as b. did at MoA that it was classic misdirection. Call it Maskirovka or Russian Game Theory (which is different from the West’s)– you have aced this one Larry. Kudos!
I respectfully disagree. *Every* country will at some point or another be impacted by political earthquakes, whether internally or externally generated. The way to gauge the strength of a country is to analyze how a country reacts to such earthquakes.
Russia came through with flying colors, during a time of war and when every key player knows that the West would support them if they could establish an anti-government toehold–in fact, I cannot think of a single other country anywhere (even Singapore) that would have responded better.
I agree. French Professor Jacques Sapir – Russian economic and military expert – tweeted yesterday that Putin’s over riding concern was to avoid Russians killing Russians, which he did. The loss of pilots may be attributable to over enthusiastic subordinates acting without orders. That in itself could be a plus. We are always hearing that junior Russian officers are afraid to use their initiative.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian army continued attacking Russian defences and got nowhere.
Just an unverified note: Read a purportedly Russian telegram message that claimed no helo pilots were killed in the three shoot-down/crashes. Which is a bit odd, given the severity of helo mishaps generally and shoot-downs in particular.
In the same message, the flaming/falling aircraft photo was identified as a Ukrainian shoot-down of a Russian transport which occurred in 2022…
FWIW, fog of war, propaganda… notwithstanding.
Larry’s thoughts on this carry a lot of weight, and I’m inclined to agree, but think this op would have a longer active operation phase (48–72 hours) to flush out fifth columnists generally and cover a redeployment on the Kursk salient. It did, however, reveal some out of tune musicians.
All Wagner units and troops who did not March on Moscow! face no sanction and may re-sign their Wagner/MoD contracts…
Things are hotting up in Belarus and P is redeploying.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army continued attacking Russian defenses and got nowhere.
NATO is facing an existential crisis. And now have their air and sea assets in theater, ready to go…
So where to now St. Peter,
If it’s true I’m in your hands?
I may not be a Christian,
But I’ve done all one man can.
I understand I’m on the road
Where all that was is gone.
So where to now St. Peter?
Show me which road I’m on;
Which road I’m on.
–Elton John
Bernie Taupin actually. Elton writes the music, but only rarely the words.
Maybe Putin wants Ukraine and the Collective West to persevere in their doomed quest of maintaining the “rules based world order”. They will continue destroying their diminishing military capacity and eventually collapse on their own as they futilely throw more and more cannon fodder into the Ukraine meat grinder.
Good points. Cui bono ? I fail to see any benefit from this episode for the RF. The character Prigozhin had/has become a liability. The process of integrating the Wagner fighting force into the regular army must now be carried out, this is no longer optional. Much is at stake here.
“The process of integrating the Wagner fighting force into the regular army must now be carried out, this is no longer optional.” – I believe you just answered your “Cui Bono” question.
With the experience they’ve gained in urban warfare, Wagner’s units have become a valuable assets, and, I guess, the time has come to get them back into the fold. But they needed a plausible excuse. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the Prigozhin played the role of the “Useful fool” in this exersize. Yes, the entire episode may make Vladimir Vladimirovitch to look “weak” in westerner’s eyes, but I can tell you this: the russians don’t care at all what the other people, especially westerners, think of them.
And if the westerner’s believe that the russians are weak just because one staged episode – well, that’s their error.
I agree.
Putting an end to it rapidly does not mitigate much the fact that it happened and that at least 20 Russians were killed by the Wagnerites who shot them down from he sky.
Second, Putin calling them traitors to the Motherland and promising serious punishment and 24 hrs later letting Prigozhin and “some” (how many?) of his soldiers to go into “exile” in Belarus unpunished does not project strength either and does make Putin look indecisive. Putin’s long tolerance of Prigozhin’s temper tantrums bordering on insubordination has had hat effect.
This kind of maskirovka supposedly designed to hide troop movements makes little sense in terms of risk vs benefit. Whom was his supposed to take by surprise? The remnants of the Ukrainian army
If it was designed to smoke out disloyal types among politicians and the top military we should know soon by seeing some big heads roll.
To me, this looks like a win for Putin. He comes off looking calm, methodical and generous. That’s a good model of governance.
So many scenarios being floated, only thing though, what about the Russian service airmen that died during this event, its around 30 or so. Thats the part that not explainable.
No actual evidence that airmen died. That is a social media claim.
And that is the very answer I hypothesised to myself: were the allegedly 7 shot down aircraft really shot down?
There are images on social media of aircraft allegedly in flames/crashed.
One might expect publicised funerals for the heroes giving the ultimate sacrifice for Mother Russia to corroborate this story. Given today’s tech, they could be pilotless aircraft and/or repurposed or otherwise fake footage.
Given any image one sees on a screen, one needs to be rather sceptical of what one thinks one sees these days.
The operative words: “social media” and “allegedly”. Why the westerners are so inclined to believe everything they see in the social media which confirms their bias anyway? Now, I know that the pressitutes are not to be believed, but why do you believe that social media is more truthful?
Yeah, and it’s entirely possible that shoot-downs, if any, were simply a trooper doing his job on his own initiative. Just like the excavators digging up the roads.
My guess is something NATO got stopped or forestalled or blocked and we don’t know what it is/was/will be yet.
Nor did Putin and MOD look at all weak to me. They hold the power and treat their people – all of them – with care. Way better than US DOJ and FBI re Jan 6 perps.
Wait for the fat lady to sing.
The very question I was going to ask.
Maybe a bit too far out there but what of the possibility Ukrainians dressed as Russians were quietly stoking the flames of discontent with Wagner, we do know Ukraine has made Russian uniforms now that would be a smart move on their part.
A big thanks to longtime supporter Cindra for the following:
More circumstantial evidence that this was a Western planned op and, in my view, Russia knew it was coming, played along and used it to their benefit.
LJ
Mikael Khodorkovsky was so excited about this that he published the one and only video on the channel, and a live one at that, praising Prigozhin and stressing support of his mutiny on his Telegram channel. The channel was opened back in January, and never used until 1:28 PM CDT 24 June. Obviously, the channel was activated in the expectation of opening up Telegram communications with whatever 5th columnists got activated.
I did auto-translate into English and it’s obvious that Khodorkovsky expected some major stuff to happen. This Telegram was reserved for something special.
https://t.me/khodorkovskylive/12
147,239 views Jun 24, 2023 #Пригожин #Путин #Ходорковский
Yevgeny Prigozhin continues the coup attempt. The head of the Wagner PMC sent his troops to the streets of Rostov-on-Don and Voronezh, events were canceled in Moscow and a counter-terrorist operation regime was introduced. Vladimir Putin made a televised address in which he called the incident a rebellion. Public figure Mikhail Khodorkovsky commented on Prigozhin’s rebellion.
(84) ХОДОРКОВСКИЙ о бунте Пригожина: Оружие пригодится россиянам уже завтра – YouTube
Here’s Khodorkovsky’s complete YT channel and team, which from English translations of the headlines and uploader’s notes is cope on an exponential scale.
https://www.youtube.com/@khodorkovskylive
ХОДОРКОВСКИЙ о бунте Пригожина: Оружие пригодится россиянам уже завтра
So, Khodorkovsky’s actually convinced the population is ready to take up arms to overthrow Putin. That’s serious copium.
Khodorkovsky cares as little for Russian popular opinion as he did for Ukrainian popular opinion.
It’s guns, power and money that counts, Allende had the votes and good wishes, Pinochet had the guns, power and money.
Makes me wonder if Prigozhin played the West for Kremlin. The whole story seems so bizarre and strange, and even the alleged circumstances under which government helicopters were supposedly shot down seem so weird (how does a column of vehicles moving fairly slowly along a highway actually shoot down gunships or a FW elint aircraft without being hammered in process?) that something has to be out of place. But this has to cost the credibility of Russian government dearly both at home and abroad: whatever it is that they are planning, if it is maskirovka, will have to unfold very fast and very decisively.
I have no idea what happened, and I doubt I will ever know, but I find the complete lack of major protests, riots, or any type of societal breakdown (so far as I saw/read about, anyway) intriguing.
Attempted coups (even failed ones) must rank up there as among the most traumatic and destructive events that could occur to a country, and yet Russia seemed completely stable throughout. You see greater societal breakdown in the US when a sports team *wins* the playoffs.
So either this farce was staged in a completely half-assed, amateurish way, or else Russia is now one of the most stable countries on earth. Basically, the Russian system’s impulse response is Compare that to the Russia of 30 years ago.
Whether you like him or hate him, Putin has clearly transformed and reinvigorated his country and will likely go down as one of the most capable rulers of the century (and of Russian history in its entirety). Pretty impressive for a guy who seems to have become President more or less by accident.
Just my two cents–would love to hear any other opinions on this.
Yes. One might expect the history books to record the long list of achievements of Vladimir the Great. He may be remembered and revered by his people in the manner of Ataturk in Turkiye.
Disintegrating Ukraine: Mapping Reality & European War Theater
Instructive is Putin’s reference to 1917 this morning.
What came before then was 19th century & prior; review this map to fully appreciated his 1917 allusion — [“a great shock. . .the loss of huge territories,” he said].
https://brewminate.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/050320-48-History-Russia-Medicine-Trade-Disease-Drug-1536×1003.gif
“The West’s entire military, economic and information machine is targeted against us. We are fighting for life and security of our people, our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russia – a state with a 1,000-year history,” he said.
https://tass.com/russia/1637661
Larry’s observation yesterday: “Maskirovka . . .a ploy to mask the concentration of Russian forces for an unexpected offensive. We will see.”
The Duran, yesterday, went to great lengths underscoring RF’s declared intention of “immediate” response to NATO aircraft [etc.] making moves towards historical Russia — “immediate” response including the air bases whence they come, and the like.
Some of this week’s Russian Security Council meeting shown live TV; and in past week: TV show with president and war journalists peppering him with questions; as a means for him to once again state to the world: RF responds when their red lines are crossed.
“All who consciously stick to the way of treason will receive imminent punishment,” Russian President Vladimir Putin also said this morning. . . .”We are fighting for life and security of our people, our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russia – a state with a 1,000-year history.”
Direct reference to 1917 and prior makes me wonder how wide geography is on “the way of treason”?
And is this message really for people in Odessa region & area . . umm —south of an arc there — extending to [regions of] Kiev, Sumy, Kharkiv?
“And therefore any steps that split our unity, this is in fact backsliding from their own people, comrades-in-arms, who are now fighting on the frontline,” Putin said.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a9/16/9b/a9169b5bc4cbdd4a843724374892b4c4.jpg
In other words, to people [in regions outlined above] inside Disintegrating Ukraine: in the long run, we have your back and all this implies. . . .
-30-
PS
At time just prior to his incarceration, the WSJ “journalist” — nabbed in Yekaterinberg region — was snooping for intel on, guess who?
+++++
Instructive is Putin’s reference to 1917 this morning.
Yeah, and Anne Applebaum wrote in the Atlantic that this was a 1917 moment too, with fingers crossed.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzarPFnWwAMFnYE?format=jpg&name=medium
I like the finagle money part. It has served me well that when things seems blurry and difficult to diagnose….think how is money involved? He may have fleeced Russia too.
Russia’s internal politics has always had a lot of intrigue. It is not as black and white as some Russians(anti Putin and pro Putin) based in west describe it. Bet there are some oligarchs in Russia in deep with JP Morgan
Wall Street and London. They are as evil
as Pelosi crime syndicate in US.
“It has served me well that when things seems blurry and difficult to diagnose….think how is money involved?”
Great point Mike. A history professor told me fifty years ago that if
you want to understand historical events, follow the money. Someone always benefits. Cf, 75 years of America’s unnecessary wars/invasions.
they did find $6 billion in an “accounting error” the other day, so who knows?
well, if that’s it, why let the cat out of the bag? i’d bet you have a lot of unfriendlies lurking here, you rebel you. :o)
just kidding, it’s all over the place. but still… lol
One has to wonder. Now the waiting begins.
Blocking Prigozhin certainly is expected reaction and cover for troop movements and realigning and restructure forces along a new axis, as well as beefing up defenses and testsing crisis responses in key centres.
A hunt for coup collaborators is mandatory and widely supported. Who has been previously identified and surveiled? Who has been smoked out by this? Who turns and provides names and evidence? Who gets arrested? There were a variety of ‘terrorist cells’ arrested just prior to this ‘coup’ by FSB. Fortuitous coincidence or…?
Who is held responsible for not discovering and dealing with this before it occurred? Who gets ‘new jobs.’ Resigns for more ‘family time’, retires? Who are the replacements?
Very curious that Prigozhin is going to Belarus, with charges dropped. The possibilities remain that this was MI-6 running a desparate psycho and running a network of other real conspirators along with embeded OTAN and ukronazi cells ready to support.
Or was the ‘psycho’ was acting and running MI-6 for the GRU and SVR and helping uncover traitors and terrorists. Suppose what happens concerning P. in the near future will be a clue.
The next couple of weeks are going to be very interesting,
Or a good excuse to redploy Wagner forces to Belarus without raising suspicions.
Indeed!
Heard on Andrei’s latest video that FSB found some 4 Billion ₽ in P.’s office in St Petersburg. Do you think thatMI-6 will stop sheding cheques now? (laughing!)
Exactly what I was thinking. Call them Paganinis if you want. One thing Progozin is excellent at apart from swindling is Organisational skills and delegation of duties to the most competent. He is needed in Belarus.
I didn’t see any mention of Wagner accompanying AP, it wouldn’t really convince anyone at home or abroad that the issue of rebellious troops and commanders was finished. A personal bodyguard detail maybe, but no more.
There was certainly scope for Russian Army covert troop movements over the course of the “rebellion”, and it’s difficult to see how AP and the Russian Army trained and logistically supplied Wagner forces thought they could take Moscow, starting off from Ukraine. The footage of supposed battle scenes between Wagner and RF are very short and unconvincing. The idea that a tiny force of Wagner could cause more shoot downs of Russian aircraft than the whole of Ukraine has, is astounding, if true. The British media had been predicting a march on Moscow by disaffected troops for weeks, the Albion have been known for sharing details of coming ops at dinner parties after too many gins, it comes with being a smug type of muppet. Whether AP was playing a double game himself, or was being played by Russian assets in Wagner is something we won’t learn until after NATO and anti Russian forces in Europe have been de-fanged. It’s certainly been the strangest of days.
right on Larry…perfect maskirovka…you may know VVP did meet with Priggy..on 06/14 who knows what is this two guys ” cooked up “… I feel they outsmart lots of idiots in the DC/BRUSSEL/LONDON/KYIV……
Well one little gnome did mention in passing that if you are going direct from Rostov to Minsk, you could stop off in Kyiv on the way.
It occurred to me right before I read this that the “coup” might just be the excuse Russia uses to put forces in place for an attack on Kharkov.
When I heard all charges dropped, my thinking converged on your proposal, Larry, it certainly served to out Ukrainian cells in Moscow and/or alerted Russian intelligence as activations were sent. Your explanation of troop movements makes more sense than anything I have heard.
And the timing makes no sense.
In any case, I do not understand why Wagner would be entirely brought into the regular military – they served a critical role in Africa and elsewhere.
“I do not understand why Wagner would be entirely brought into the regular military – they served a critical role in Africa and elsewhere.”
Apparently Russian law forbids PMCs to be deployed on Russian territory. So to be legal they must be absorbed in to Russian military.
Hey Larry, I started laughing uncontrollably after I read the initial paragraphs, but have since managed to recover well enough to scribble a few notes of appreciation and admiration for your style. Used to teach writing, so I know enough to come alive each time I happen to read a creative writer. Congrats
Thanks so much. I strive to be creative and entertaining while discussing important matters.
You do an excellent job Larry!
Larry…Pepe Escobar…is good one in this style serious matter deal with light/heavy humour…like your style of writings…
Party last night at the Russian Embassy in Ottawa Canada. Apparently the diplomatic staff were not aware or not concerned by the coup. Sound was loud and cheerful. Could be heard throughout the adjoining Strathcona Park. I suspect this supports your hypothesis.
Nonsense, they were simply celebrating Le St. Jean. 🙂
Betting that Prigozhin scammed NATO and the CIA out of millions.
Flashback to Rhinehart Gehlen and how he scammed Allan Dulles out of tens of millions of dollars for totally made up bullshit.
Its my tax dollars being wasted but at least there is entertainment value.
If tax dollars weren’t wasted on this it would have been wasted on some tranny shit. Either way you’ll never see value for your money (stolen).
Truly a brilliant strategy by the Russian Federation and a lovely demonstration of the continuing power of maskirovka.
(1) Forces have now been moved into place to recover Kharkov Oblast from the Talmudist pederasts and Neo-Nazis running the Ukrainian government.
(2) There’s been an unmasking of several fifth and sixth columnists within the power structures of the Russian government.
(3) The Russian military has received a charitable if indirect donation from Western “intelligence” agencies via Prigozhin.
The sheer scale of the stupidity of the political leaders of the West is breathtaking. All are riding the short bus to oblivion.
What else was going on while everybody was focused on the Great Rushing Coup Show?
What was the magician doing with his other hand?
A good day to bury bad news…
All this is a very good take, except – Putin was very serious in his address to the nation. He basically renewed his pact with the nation. I just can’t see him gulling the entire population of Russia in order to mount what would be essentially a military/security operation – i.e. not a political move.
He would crush political authenticity in order to make a play that it wasn’t necessary to carry through into his own speech? How does he explain that to the people afterwards?
This play could have proceeded militarily, without Putin. But people took it on face value, people’s shock and people’s passions were real. They counted on a man like Putin to speak the complete truth with them. And he spoke to them. How do you walk that back?
If this were maskirovka, it would be brilliant as such, but if so it would be a political risk beyond all measure of scale.
In my opinion.
I agree. Putin did appear genuinely angry this morning.
Yes, but angry at who? That is part of this riddle.
Simple. Putin’s address seems to have been broadcasted live only on RT, the voice of Russia outside Russia. None of the russian channels broadcasted this address live, though they reported on it a short while later.
Also they were rumours of some kinds of arrests in Moscow the previous day of some ukrainians and other “agents provocateurs”.
I agree! This has extremely high costs for Putin. The fact that he has allowed for Prigozhin to carry on in video after video to attack the leadership and claim they lied to the public about the conditions on the battlefield – saying that far more soldiers died than reported and far more damage was done to the army than the public was told and so on, is incomprehensible. This in and of itself is treason. Prigozhin has no right to state these tings (of which by the way there is no proof) publicly. It only serves to sow doubt in peoples minds about the trustworthiness of Putin and the leadership. And that i a NO GO in wartime. WHY has Putin allowed this? It has made him look weak and unprincipled. And no real punishment for Prigozhin after openly turning his army against Russia and trying to seize power? This makes Putin look even more weak and unprincipled. Putin cannot afford this! Not even if it was all a game to obtain some strategic advantages, which is why, to be honest, I don’t think it is.
Yes, Russia has shown itself to be an extremely coherent and resilient society in the face of this chaos. But Putin has shown himself to be bewilderingly inconsistent by not dealing with what mounts to high treason. No credible head of state will ever accept that. But Putin seems to do. I am deeply puzzled. But I can only see this as a bad thing.
Hypothesis: there was an attempted coup. But not by Prigozhin.
Long time reader – first time writer. Love the blog.
This is my sticking point. I would add to this another scenario. Prigozhin is a charismatic man who, until recently, had not been used to extended, urban warfare. That seemed to be Utkin’s bag before. Can you imagine what the stress did to him? No doubt he greatly impressed the young men serving with him with his money and panache. I believe deep rivalries exist, and Shoigu probably did screw over Wagner at points. Perhaps the negotiations with the MoD over the mercs signing contracts really put the final piece of stress on a structure that was not up to code at the time. I have little doubt that most of the men in Wagner feel much more loyalty to Prigozhin than the MoD. And it is not hard to imagine that this attack would absolutely shock the Russians and leave them largely defenseless, for in the southern region, Wagner was a great deal of the defense.
Why call it off? Speaking to a third party who guarantees your safety and satisfies some of your demands tends to mollify. He seems to have made his point, which again tends to sate.
Perhaps the best analogue is the Business Plot. Putin recognizes that trying to punish Prigozhin would be a brutal distraction or much worse. He played pragmatic, just as FDR did.
Good point. It’s analysis enough. A statesman like Putin would never participate in a Maskirovka. It was the end of his career as a statesman. Putin must be understood to the letter. Otherwise how to trust Putin tomorrow?The other place where you can see that the coup was prepared a long time ago was the misinformation madness in Ukrainian social networks. The rusian war reporter Marat Khairullin today is peremptory in stating that it was notorious that Ukrainian forces knew about the coup and were prepared to benefit from the coup and the disorientation of the Russian forces at the front:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqhVhm3QhAI&t=535s
“Shoigu, Gerasimov!” The Movie
That’s the line… that suck in my mind from the infamous video.
Que a Clint Eastwood look alike…glinting in the burning Sun, calling out, “Shoigu, Gerasimov!” across a the dusty street outside the Red Wood Saloon… inside, a long polished red wood bar lined with tough customers hears echoes of “Shoigu, Gerasimov!” drifting over the bar.
Two tough customers slam their vodka and throw the glasses into the fire, turn, and slowly walk away from the bar.
Upon emerging into the burning Sun…they cast cold, smoky glares across the street… a solitary figure calls the out, “Shoigu, Gerasimov!”
Que the music, get a big munch of popcorn, and see the end of the flick.
Wagner…huh.
Is this opera or war?
Helluva Show… I want to see a stout blonde wearing horns sing out the high notes.
A deal was cut… troops were moved… mouths of the chattering class in the West were either agog or running none stop.
Now, the party’s over… back to the gritty reality… hang over in the morning.
“This war ain’t big enough for the both of us” Shoigu spits and grins.
His sidekick Gerasimov stands off to the side, nervously chewing his cigar, his hand hovering in eager anticipation near his gun. Ready as ever to back up his boss when the fighting starts.
Prigohzin squinting in the noonday sun eyes off his foes, clearly outgunned. He knows that Sly Surovikin is in town, lurking somewhere Winchester in hand, itching to take him out.
He spots dust on the horizon. That’ll be Kadyrov and the boys from the Chechen ranch, always quick to get to the trouble. “Guess yer right. I been thinkin bout headin west anyway.” Everyone takes a breath.
Progohzin turns, knowing they won’t shoot him in the back, mozzies over to the coral, mounts his pony, rides off into the sunset, heading west to Belarus and a new life in the wild West.
Shoigu and Gerasimov enter the saloon. Putin sits at a table in the corner, his back to the wall as always, playing poker with the Poroschenko, Lavrov and the Mad Medvedev. He looks up from his cards.
“It’s done boss, he’s leaving town.” Says Shoigu, heading for the bar. Putin nods, as close as anyone gets to praise from the ever cool Mr P.
Could this be directed by MI6 and proudly produced by Elensky Productions? I think it’ll break box office records in Kiev, London and Washington.
Very, very well done! As I read it, Ennio Morricone’s score for The Good, The Bad and the Ugly was playing inside my head….
Let’s all admit we haven’t a clear picture of what just happened beyond knowing for certain that it wasn’t what it seemed to be as we watched it unfold. Any of the explanations posited so far, Larry’s, Simplicius’, the Two Alexanders’, Martyanov’s, etc., is possible. Isn’t that the brilliance of the performance, that everyone’s guessing today, including all the warmongeing bastards in DC? And while we’re at it, let’s also admit that we all owe Vladimir Putin a debt of gratitude for having injected authentic drama and intrigue into our lives deadened recently by the dreary world of Western politics. I know “The Great Show’ took over every moment of the day for me yesterday.
Thank you Jack for your positive feedback – it’s always nice to hear and I’m delighted you enjoyed my post. In these troubled times, a little entertainment is a refreshing change from the Fear, Doom & Gloom Show. It seems to fit with Larry’s Oscars theme for this post.
Putin and Prigozhin fooled NATO, And got away with $6.2 billion, Prigozhin Is a good criminal indeed 😂😂😂😂
“What if the Prigozhin “Coup” is Maskirovka? ”
Ha! That is exactly what I wondered this afternoon after seeing the first reports then going out and working in my garden. Gardening puts the higher brain in neutral and subconscious thinking comes thru.
When you consider how bizarre this whole thing is, it tends towards the fantastic, always a hallmark of a psy-op. Like letting Prigozin “walk” with no consequences. Are you kidding?
“Shoigu, Gerasimov!” The Movie
That’s the line… that suck in my mind from the infamous video.
Que a Clint Eastwood look alike…glinting in the burning Sun, calling out, “Shoigu, Gerasimov!” across a the dusty street outside the Red Wood Saloon… inside, a long polished red wood bar lined with tough customers hears echoes of “Shoigu, Gerasimov!” floating over the bar through the bat wings as patrons go in & out.
Two tough customers slam their vodka and throw the glasses into the fire, turn, and slowly walk away from the bar.
Upon emerging into the burning Sun…they cast cold, smoky glares across the street… a solitary figure calls the out, “Shoigu, Gerasimov!”
Que the music, get a big munch of popcorn, and see the end of the flick.
Wagner…huh.
Is this opera or war?
Helluva Show… I want to see a stout blonde wearing horns sing out the high notes.
A deal was cut… troops were moved… mouths of the chattering class in the West were either agog or running none stop.
Now, the party’s over… back to the gritty reality… hang over in the morning.
I take most of your points Larry.
However there is one sticking point.
How do you explain the downed Russian aircraft (I think 5-6 of them) by Wagners and the loss of about 15 aircrew?
Was it a small price to pay for a Маскировка?
What is the actual evidence for that? We have some social media claims. For example, the helo that allegedly crashed and started the oil fire is reported as a hard landing with crew surviving.
That is my question, where are the dead and material destruction!!????
Prig claimed not a drop of blood was shed. Wouldn’t he know?
Prig has been lying all the time about many things, and I mean verifiable things. He is a textbook example of unreliable narrator, and also an attention whore. It was entertaining at first, but he got lost in all the fame and fortune he got.
Here is a piece of an interview that was entertaining then, but now not so much:
https://t.me/zoka200/11233
Brilliant!
What caught my attention was the timing of the “coup” with regard to the end of the massive NATO military air force exercise. I think the Russians knew the exercise could turn into a NATO intervention in the Ukraine conflict and therefore extensively planned for such a possibility. In essence, the “coup” provided NATO with the “perfect excuse” to pull the trigger on an intervention, especially with all of the NATO troops and hardware deployed where it was at that moment. So Russia was perhaps thinking that if the NATO intervention was bound to take place, then they (the Russian military) would control the timing and location of such an event for which they already had contingencies. Basically, they wanted to shape the engagement if it was to come. And notice that Wagner (overwhelmingly undermanned for such an enterprise) moved toward the southeast of the Donbas line of conflict which seemed like an invitation for the UF to rush forward into the jaws of the strength of the Russian defenses. I’ve wondered for months if Prigozhin has been play acting.
If we go with the suggestion that this is all fun and mind games, who’s going to answer for the 6 aircraft downed and 15 servicemen killed by Prigozhin’s goons in one day?
I have not seen a confirmed report. If that did happen then I expect there will be severe retribution against Prigozhin. It is also a possibility that Russian intelligence intercepted the Prigozhin plan but never clued him in. Just gave him rope to hang himself.
Always loved that song. Never saw video. Fantastic article. Was also thinking that this ‘success’ for NATO, will increase the pressure to double down. Well he’s on the rope’s, finish him. Just when they were busily trying to pry open the emergency exit, their own people, will howl for more blood.
“the crowd cried out for more” procol harum
Maybe Putin wants Ukraine and the Collective West to persevere in their doomed quest of maintaining the “rules based world order”. They will continue destroying their diminishing military capacity and eventually collapse on their own as they futilely throw more and more cannon fodder into the Ukraine meat grinder.
My sense of things: theatre, elaborately choreographed, but theatre. Concerning this we should distinguish tragedy from farce. The Prigozhin drama is a farce, a side show. The tragic drama lay right in front of us on the battlefields. My hunch is that Russian intelligence might be privy to decisions on the part of the Ukrainian military to abandon these suicide missions (where’s those F 16s!!!) without air cover or anti aircraft capabilities. Any sensible military professional would advise a defensive posture for the Ukrainians. Let the Russians make their way through Ukrainian minefields and pay the price offensive attacks exact. Retreat to the fortified cities and set the table for one Mariupol after another, house to house fighting. Lots of casualties. Does the Russian leadership want this? Of course not. Surely they want the offensive to continue. But saner heads are starting to make their voices heard in the West, perhaps emboldening senior Ukrainian officers to say no to the incessant neocon demands for going on the attack in pursuit of territorial gains. And all this being driven by PR calculations to allay this Euro doner fatigue. And Uncle Joe has an election coming up. In this context Prigozhin is throwing fresh meat to the barking dogs of war in the State Dept., their acolytes in so many media editorial offices, and think tank camp followers. Especially revealing was his video statement to the effect that the actions of Feb. 24 were unprovoked, exactly the prime talking point of Nato. I take it that the aim is to get the dogs hot and bothered, smelling blood, excited by the spectre of fighting in the captains tower of the Kremlin. Get them barking loud enough to drown out the voices of reason counseling a defensive posture.
A bit more .. .. regardless of whether Prigozhin’s displays are intended to be taken at face value or as theatrical disinformation, again, regardless of his intentions, we should still consider his interventions in terms of how these might play out on the battlefields. But few do. Most have been distracted from the main theatre to this side show in the belief that it’s all about psychology or patriotism. If my take on all this is correct, they’re underestimating him. But even if he’s a treasonous criminal, if his antics rile up the neocons and inspire them to breath heavily down the necks of an increasingly hesitant Kiev leadership, with demands of more offensives, it could save the lives of lot’s of Russian soldiers.
I don’t know enough to have an opinion on this matter. But is it true that it is illegal for a private military corporation, such as Wagner, to conduct combat operations on the territory of the Russian Federation?
Recall, Donetska Oblast is in the Russian Federation — at least to the Russian Federation, passed by the Duma and signed by Putin, I recall.
It was mainly a house cleaning operation. Wagner left Rostov after after military police arrived on premises. Gerasimov and Shoigu were moved to Moscow where the cleaning is ongoing. The beauty is in Putin’s speech that gives all the hints but leaves specifics to interpretation The morons took the bait happily, unleashing their wildest fantasies. The duo have their champagne on ice.
Well done, Larry and thank you.
But isn’t it also true that Russian law forbids the military from operating outside of Russia? So folding Wagner into the regular force means Russia loses the ability to send forces to wherever else Wagner is at the moment? (I’m thinking at least a couple of places in Africa, yes?)
Yeah, like quite a few people in the various comments sections, I’m also undecided on the maskirovka-or-mutiny question. So far nothing happened that would conclusively eliminate either of the two theories. If in a week or a month Prigozhin slips on a banana peel and falls out of window to his death, that would conclusively settle the question as “mutiny”. However, if Wagner stations 5000 men in southeastern Belarus, “guarded against mutiny” by a division of Belarusian military, then that would basically prove it was maskirovka. If this latter thing happens, the clock will begin ticking for a big arrow offensive to the western Ukraine. Same if they get “interned in penal camps” all over Belgorod and Kursk… since a few divisions of RuAF will have to “guard” those camps.
looks like Sun Tzu the art of war played to perfection. time will tell
I agree. I’ve seen a lot of Sun Tzu in the Russian approach since the beginning of the SMO.
Remarkable discussion. Deeply appreciated.
Edward Luttwak’s book “Coup d’Etat – A Essential Primer” is mandatory reading for anyone planning or preventing a coup.
https://www.amazon.com/Coup-d%C3%89tat-Practical-Handbook-Revised/dp/0674737261/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=luttwak&qid=1687664915&sr=8-1
It’s a long time since I read it, but some main points I recall are:
=> Coups are led by Cols, Lt Cols, and Majors because these men are commanders of battalions and companies and their men know them and will follows their orders even if they don’t know the reason for them.
=> The commanders of military units in the Capital must be either in on the plot, neutral or otherwise prevented from taking action to impede the coup.
=> Speed is essential. Leaders of centers of power that could organise resistance to the coup must be detained or neutralised within a couple of hours,
=> Control of communication facilities, radio, tv, telecom, is critical.
There is much more.
The Prigozhin/Wagner fiasco broke almost every, if not actually every, rule in the book about mounting coups.
It was at most, a localised rebellion by a military unit.
Massive media impact though.
Excellent. I intended to make those points but neglected to do so. Thank you.
Larry, I returned to your site to see if you predicted any of this. I don’t think you did,
The Other,
Larry Johnson
Predicted what?
Right. It wasn’t a coup but an armed rebellion. A real not well thought one but real nonetheless.
The downing of the helicopters. The language Putin used. The raising of the offices. The loss of prestige on the international stage right before BRICS meeting.
I mean what did they actually gain? Maskirovka has a specific military or intelligence goal and any negative effects need to be worth it. Not to mention to fake an insurrection with 25k battle hardened men is a bit risky.
I don’t see it.
A similar reasoning gave I to a friend, who immediately replied:
“-How would you unhindered move a force 25 thousand strong from Rostov to Belarus while simultaneously placing the necessary russian logistics for future operations and raising awareness for mobilisation amongst civilians while your enemy rests paralised analysing for 48 hours, unable to take any proactive action?.. Or do you think that reaching an agreement in Voronezh of all places just happened?”
I must admit that, as he spoke, I felt dumber and dumber….
If it was actually a genuine, would be coup attempt, a coup cannot possibly succeed if the commanders of military units in the Capital are not:
– fully on board with the coup.
– confirmed to be neutral and will take no action to oppose it
– or will be immediately replaced by junior leaders supportive if the coup.
The fact that there was no action by any military unit in Moscow in support of the fantasized coup implies one of the following must be true:
1. It was not in any sense a coup attempt, just a spontaneous unplanned rebellion.
2. If Prigozhin and his oligarch supporters really intended a coup, it was one of the most piss-poorly planned and executed could of all time. Only idiots try to launch a coup far from the centers of power.
3. The coup attempt was genuine. But whoever it’s sponsors were, oligarchs, MI6, CIA, or all of them together, FSB got wind of it, coordinated false promises of support from commanders in Moscow, and let it proceed in order to identify the sponsors
4, the maskirovka theory is correct
If 3, was Prigozhin in on the deception, was he a double agent?
That question everyone was asking a while back –
“Where are all of those Russian Recruits?”
Is about to be answered heh heh heh.
Larry Johnson is a hoot! Who knew the Racket of war would also be high camp!
Dying to know where the Chechen forces encamped. Since we are in war, will not know until memoirs written.
Sandy Rinaldi, Arkansas, US Army veteran 1971 to 1974, today 24 JUN 23
This might be more than just a diversion for troops movements. Lots of sleeping cells should have activate in Russia yesterday, and something tells me the FSB don’t miss a drop from it. It’s baiting the wolves out of the woods.
Another side effect is giving kakhols some hope “something is possible after all”, and it’s a typical Prigozhin move, the usual “don’t stop war” scheme.
Who’s playing “the narrative” game now ? Everyone !
Someone on Simp’s substack made an astute observation; Putin’s speech during the “coup attempt” was televised on RT well before Russia’s own state media.
Was it meant for outside consumption?
It depends if they really shot those helicopters and aircraft.
If yes then 3 of those helos and Ilyushin plane were electronic jamming/communication platforms. What were they doing there? Its not that russians have unlimited quantities of those models. Did they try to stop wagner communication with someone?? There must be some very serious reason to justify loosing 4 such valuable assets.
If downing didn’t really happened (its only tg/twitter bullshit) then your theory is plausible
Fully agree with your analysis. I also had considered the possibility of testing Ukraine and see if they would try and go into Russia and then clobber them. Or then the other possibility was that this was staged to move troops around without causing suspicion as you so well laid it out.
In Northern Ireland we would use mass raids not to discover arms caches or capture terrorists, though we sometimes did, but to see who reacted and how.
Someone always breaks.
We also used it to move and position assets and equipment elsewhere whilst attention was focused on the raid.
I believe this is what the Russians have just done.
Russia is nothing if not captivating with the drama in their higher ranks. So out of character considering Lavrov and Zakharova are usually quite serious. But you called it Larry. It looks like Shakespeare on Don.
New restaurant in Minsk opening soon. It will have a comedy club.
Sunday night.
Nothing starts on Sunday night.
Yours is an interesting take on the whole farce. It is a sad day for the European media as their jubilant headlines yesterday have been replaced with melancholic ones this morning. Although their paid experts are still parroting their usual balderdash about a crack in the Kremlin.
The entire charade appeared to be too surreal to be believable. I kept thinking to myself.. “Wouldn’t it be something if they used these antics to reposition forces”. Why not? It would certainly throw a spanner into the works.
The international cost of Russia looking unstable FAR outweighs any benefit of troop movements. Plus it’s not like western won’t catch on pretty quickly and this would only be of benefit if they go on the offensive like RIGHT NOW.
And what does it say about Putin if he can’t even fire commanders which he deems incompetent? And then to only do it because some PMC manger was marching on Moscow? Nope.
In this case, the simplest explanation is the correct one. This was real, the deal was made to avoid more bloodshed and end it quickly. Prigozhin was upset because he was losing Wagner and when he saw the MoD doing a bang up job pushing back the counteroffensive he lost it. He possibly had outside “funding” but I don’t know and it doesn’t matter. Treason is treason.
“The international cost of Russia looking unstable FAR outweighs any benefit of troop movements.”
Not at all. The United States and the West needs to believe that Russia and the Russian people are country bumpkins, straight off the farm, sub-humans.
Anything that feeds the United States’ and the West’s delusions works to Russia’s favor.
Can be, good point.
I wouldn’t say it was a Maskirovka, but regardless, the events were fascinating. What is most fascinating to me is that Putin has imposed unprecedented frustrations on the West. So much so that the West is ready to support the convicted criminal Prigozhin who is asking for general mobilization and a tougher course in the Ukrainian war. Only to get rid of Putin, who is ruining the business of the criminal elites in the West. At Soloviev, a screenshot of the screen of a media outlet was published on the Telegram channel, which during the day called Prigozhin’s troops “fighters for freedom”, and a few hours later, after the agreement, “terrorists”. One of the most read Balkan portals, which has been calling Wagner the worst epithets for months, published touching and emotional pictures from Rostov yesterday of people approaching the “putschists” and giving them roses. Yesterday, the State Department postponed the introduction of sanctions on Wagner for the reason that… he does not take sides in the conflict in Russia (sic!). Hypocrisy, level max!
I would love for the Maskirovka scenario to be true, but I can’t convince myself.
Yesterday’s tension was palpable. Putin’s visibly anrgy while addressing the nation. He didn’t look like someone that was acting.
But mainly, in my opinion this would have been a very expensive Maskirovka: 6-7 aircraft/helicopters were lost. 15 pilots or crew members killed.
Politically and diplomatically speaking, the Russian government appeared not in complete control of its own armed forces and while the successful negotiation (according to the official narrative) showed once again that the Russian institutions are led by patient people with nerves of steel, what will Russian foreign partners think of the stability of the government and institutions?
Also, in order to be able to rip any benefit from a sudden redeployment, Russia would have to attack immediately, because troops movements that might have been justified yesterday will still arouse suspicion and alarm in the next few days.
Might explain why the residents of Rostov on Don were cheering when Wagner left? Maybe some of the lads let the cat out of the bag? (don’t worry people we’re putting on a little show for the retards in MI6 and CIA), makes sort of sense .. Lol MI6 and CIA must be going WTF just happened.. lol
You all are overthinking.
Remember what happened to Chechens after their battle in Ukraine… they were absorbed in RF arm force.
Maybe the neighboring states didn’t want warlords roaming in Chechnya.
Same goes to Wagner, after bakmuth it was to be absorbed into armed forces of RF.
But narcissistic Prigozhin and his goons were not happy. Just before this attempted coup Russian army was busy recruiting from all the volunteers unit.
Now what’s about to happen is that prigozhin and his band of rebels will be in Belarus who will not be taking any part in the battlefield. The rest of Wagner fighters will have to sign the contract with Russian army or leave the battlefield.
For further details check comment made by communist party of Russia. They are not fans of PMC.
I also think many here love overthinking (and developing strange theories. Still waiting for NATO to attack Russia using that “air defender 2023” as a cover? Never mind! We have another chance next year!)
It is … Russia. It is full of Russian people.
Prigozhin .. is Russian, right? You must be Russian to act like that.
What did he accomplish in the end?
Forever holidays in Belarusian paradise?
Very smart. My ass.
What a fantastic article from Larry who always takes an alternative view of these events to present another perspective that others have overlooked? Bravo Larry, having been glued to Social Media when this so called Coup attempt was taking place, I smelled a Rat, something didn’t quite add up & I had my suspicions that this was all a stage managed event between Putin, Prigozhin & others? The fact that no one was killed, no Wagner Militiamen & Prigozhin himself escaped punishment for Treason, a hanging offence, confirmed this? The Belarus Solution & Asylum for Prigozhin was also a Ruse, how convenient was that, what a perfect staged outcome as a cover story excuse? Perfect! As you mentioned, the Goal was to misdirect & mislead & move huge amounts of Russian troops around, supposedly to extinguish the Coup, but this was to provide cover to move them to other Areas to not raise NATO concerns & scrutiny! The West was sucked in totally along with its MSM & Govts who got provided with a false dawn of Regime change by giving the impression that Russia is in crisis & Putins rule in question, the whole thing was a deception! And I’m sure all of Russia’s Allies where notified prior to this as to not alarm them, that’s why there was no concern from China & the others? My suspicions have been confirmed with Putin not taking any action against Wagner & Prigozhin & your excellent analysis & reading of this? Putin & Prigozhin must be having a good laugh at the West’s premature rejoicing, Putin has played them like a fiddle! Well played Mr Putin & Mr Prigozhin, here’s your Oscar for Best Actor Prigozhin & here’s yours Mr Putin for best Director! I would like to thank the Academy for this successful Production? Haha!
I have commented here and have to say, I agree with this commenter.
It was a STING. They maybe got 6 billion to boot.
If so, gives me great pleasure.
I see it all much more simple and straight forward:
Prigozhin is a businessman and he wanted bigger slice from military budget for Wagner. Prigozhin is a crook that became millionaire. Type of person that knows only two ways: ‘My way’ or ‘No way’. People like these often do irrational decisions that no one with bit of grey matter would ever possibly do. Sometime they pull it through and make tons of money. And this was one of his moments. IMO the after-deal what he was offered was either ‘fight and die’ or ‘exile’
It’s not about bigger slice, but about no slice. Everyone involved in combat had to sign contract with MoD ’till the end of the month. He was about to lose his private army.
I’ve been thinking along similar lines. He probably took the money, then informed his Intel chiefs once it became clear Ukraine was losing in its offensive. He got a pardon in exchange for this bizzare play that probably outed a lot of British and polish assets in Belarus too.
Mi modesta opinión es esta:
El mejor “golpe de estado” que puede existir es el que te montas tu mismo (servicio de inteligencia ruso, con un director técnico a la cabeza como Putin), por 3 razones principales.
La primera es comprobar que hay sobre el terreno, tanto en las filas de tu propio ejército, como en los grupos privados y también en tus ciudadanos (fieles, disidentes o términos medios); la segunda es que al ser dirigido (el “golpe de estado”) por ti mismo, te permite darle el volumen y el recorrido que sea necesario para este fin (hacer una radiografía de todo); la tercera es mantener las piezas buenas en funcionamiento y eliminar las oxidadas.
“As the Russians say, NYET!”
Larry,
Russians say NET (with “e” pronounced like in “get”), possibly like NiET but definitely not NYET.
Kind regards,
I would speculate that Prigozhin’s “Blockbuster Hollywood Production” was financed with $US billions probably funneled through Ukraine… maybe with a 10% cut for Z.
What NATO wanted to happen:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8KUCl9lFFk
I’m usually opposed to dubbing in movies, but sometimes it gets unexpected results…
My problem with it all having been choreographed maskirovka is that setting it up would be an act of cruelty to the entire population of the Russian Federation. Any fleeting advantage it gives to the criminal West pales in comparison to the terror felt by the collective hopes of Russia itself. I cannot imagine any government that cares about its people setting up such a morale-crushing plan.
Is it possible? Sure. But it sounds like an improbable plot device from an Alfred Hitchcock movie.
But to intentionally make Russians think that they were about to suffer through another Yeltsin (or worse) seems, as I said, cruel beyond comprehension.
However, I guess it is all possible. But it seems like terrorizing your own family to temporarily confuse your arch enemy.
Whole thing made no sense from the start – armed force of 25k cannot dream to defeat country as RU – just regular draftese that could be used to confront them outnumber them 15 to 1 or something like that, not to speak about all police and guard units, and not to speak of long distance weapons that can shoot at them from out of sight ranges while moving in columns…
When you add to the point that majority of Wagnerites have layed down their arms even before this all started just decreases sense of all of this.
Now, regardless of whether this was maskirovka or real attempt, its definitely not looking good when you have Putin saying that they will be dealt with and in the end they just leave for Belarus, unless they want to appear weak in order to embolden traitors to show themselves more openly, however that is a very dubious plan since showing weakness (even when feigning it) is generally not a good idea, as real weaknesses always exist and emboldening people to go after them is generally bad approach…
One thing that can also be important is that this was maybe all a ploy to keep West interested in the conflict after disasterous defeat of “counter-offensive”, or maybe some part of this will be used to faint some breach of the first of the second line (like soldiers are demoralized) only for UKR to pour all reserves in the pocket and then be utterly destroyed, however, such plans can backfire so its also a very risky move if that is the case…
The United States and the West got punked.
Let’s just assume that the average Russian soldier is a “grunt,” there to follow orders and somehow get out of this whole mess alive. Just like the rest of us.
The Wagner Group, officially known as PMC Wagner (Wagner Private Military Company), is a Russian paramilitary organization. It is seen and advertised as a private military company (PMC), a network of mercenaries and a de facto private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian Oligarch, with close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Wagner Group is the Russian version of Seal Team Six, Delta Force, the Green Berets, and Special Operations Unit, all rolled up into one PMC.
The Wagner Group, while it operates in support of Russian interests, receives equipment from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and uses MoD installations for training, it is viewed as separate from the Russian military. It’s status as a PMC allows it to operate with some independence from everything that gets in the way of winning wars.
While the Wagner Group itself is not ideologically driven, the “Fog of War” requires the public to believe that elements of Wagner Group have been linked to neo-Nazism and far-right politics. This is just propaganda. Again, “Fog of War” stuff. This has been done in part to make them the bigger Nazis to Ukrainian Nazis, the Azov group.
For the average soldier serving in the Wagner Group, the idea of being a PMC mercenary adds a certain badass romantic element to essentially just being another grunt. Members of the Wagner Group are still grunts, just badass grunts.
Whatever went down with Prigozhin, it is now clear that the plan (whatever the plan was) meant Prigozhin was going to ultimately be removed as the (presumptive) leader of the Wagner Group.
I believe the Russian government’s desire to have all members of the Wagner Group register with the Ministry of Defense by offering them benefits (money), was done so as to gain some control over a possible power vacuum after Prigozhin was gone.
With Prigozhin gone, the need to have some hierarchical structure in control of the Wagner Group was critical.
I wonder who will replace Prigozhin?
Larry, you could well be right. But there is an alternative view.
1. Prig is no hero. He has a criminal background, spending many years in prison. During the 90s he quickly built his business empire, the last acquisition being the Wagner Group. The 90s fostered great criminal domains – Prig’s was one of them.
2. In Ukraine the greedy and ambitious Prig made a deal with Western and Ukrainian intelligence weeks or even months ago. Once the counteroffensive began and the first line of Russian defenses were broken, he would take his Wagner Group into Russia and implement a coup at just the right moment, catching senior Russian military and political figures off guard, deposing Putin and he himself assuming a dictatorship – back to the 90s.
3. Putin found out about this well in advance as he has an extensive intelligence network throughout Ukraine and the West. He decided to use Prig’s treachery to Russia’s benefit.
4. He had the MoD require that all PMCs be placed under direct military authority by July 1. Any PMC not cooperating with this would be denied funding and support from the MoD. Prig could not accept this at all. It would completely destroy his plans and those of the West.
5. When the Ukrainian counteroffensive went tits up, Prig, facing a July 1 deadline, was forced to make a decision to enter Russia anyway. He met little or no resistance wherever he went. Why? Putin ordered all doors open to him. Why? Because Putin knew that this treachery was not just confined to Prig and the West but had the involvement of other actors, or that otheer actors would become active if Prig showed strength and the Russian government appeared weak. Putin suspected that if Prig was showing signs of success, these other actors would become active, so he had his intelligence agencies monitor all calls and social media around the laast few days as Prig marched on towards Moscow. As a result many heretofore 5th columnists would be identified and subject to criminal proceedings.
6. At the right time, Putin sent in his negotiators – Lukashcenko and Alexey Dyumin, governor of the Tula Region – to talk sense into Prig. I understand that they told Prig that there was no way out for hi – that many of his Wagner soldiers had realised that they were deceived and decided not to follow him, leaving him with far fewer troops than he had counted on. They told him that he and his forces would be annihilated well before they reached Moscow if they didn’t turn away. They promised him safe journey to Belarus and no criminal prosecution for this troops if they returned. He reluctantly accepted.
7. Likely results of Putin’s plans? a. An irritating thorn in the side (Prig) was removed from concern (he likely will die in Belarus at some time in the future. b. The removal of the Wagner Group as a potential threat by dissolving the organisation (or incorporating it into the Russian military under M0D leadership. c. The identification of dangerous 5th columnists and the possibility of rounding them up for prosecution. d. Possibly an excuse to remove Shoigu who haas a liberal background and was always soft towards the West and replacing him with someone more like Alexey Dyumin, a former Deputy Minister of Defence and head of the Special Operaations Forces that oversaw the Crimean effort to re-join Russia. And possibly even Sergey Surovikin as Gerasimov’s replacement. Good luck to Ukraine and the West if that should happen.
None of this might be true, but I do think it a reasonable alternative view. I don’t think Prig was ever trusted enough to be responsible for such an important task. He was a criminal leading criminals.
I would keep things simple; Prigozhin has a mental breakdown. He is lucky that Putin is not a Stalin type of dictator, else he would be doing hard labor in Siberia cutting trees for rest of his life, and that is if he were fortunate, but more likely he would be shot.
Larry, I tried replying to your 22:05 comment; it didn’t work.
Scott Ritter put up a brilliant explanation at 10am Eastern: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE2IqsAO-2M
Within hours his prophecies had come true.
Cast your mind to XX Committee, Century Ho and Operation Mincemeat. Suppose Prigozhin was a double agent for MI6 (for reasons that Ritter explains) and the whole of yesterdays media blitz was Information Warfare from all barrels, all day, with the talking heads fully briefed, maps ready, videos to hand all targeted at Russia with the aim of a bloodless regime change. From public outburst to Presidential threat the pace accelerated until just as the European press went to print the convoy reversed with honour restored and their leader took a pardoned holiday with a full suitcase courtesy of the FCDO Foreign Aid budget.
Trouble was, the public did not buy it; Prigozhin double-crossed the West; come this morning and Putin is much emboldened. Of course he and his minions knew about the plan and played along. Now his whole country sees the threat from the West, knows it cannot trust a word in the media and are now right behind closing this war as soon as possible. Hopefully the Ukrainian military see this as well. The media were taken, hook, line and sinker.
The Russian intent was possibly also designed to flush out the Ukrainians with false optimism, effect the deployments you suggest and, equally likely, expose enemy agents within. We shall see.
“. . . Prigozhin double-crossed the West . . . .”
Prigozhin didn’t just double-cross the West, he punked the West.
Pathetic.
The Russians are really complicated, the fight against Ukrainians and NATO mercenaries is so easy and boring that they decided to fight each other.
It’s a Slavic thing.
I’m a big fan of Larry’s blog but I feel the diversion thesis is a bit silly. If war is an extension of politics then the optics are often as important as the reality on the ground. Putin made a five minute address, standing up and on his toes like an ageing prize fighter; calm, yes, yet with a steely edge to his voice, calling out Russia’s Brutus from the senate floor, so to speak, using loaded terms such as ‘treason’ and coldly referring to extreme countermeasures, etc. Is this the behaviour of a political thespian mouthing from a prearranged script? Hardly. Because we all witnessed history at the raw end yesterday; history – where the traitors come for you in the night with blood and murder on their minds.
Prigozhin’s gambit – ill considered, fuelled by the narcotics of ego and ambition – was in keeping with the man: shallow grandstanding rhetoric, signifying nothing. Like all quasi-Macbeth’s, Prigozhin failed to see the bigger picture and plan accordingly. It is to be doubted he foresaw the final outcome: the humiliating climb down ending in the terminus of exile, silence and disgrace.
However, Putin’s decision to commute Prigozhin’s sentence, to sidestep Russian legalese and make a deal has not strengthened his own position. He now appears lenient and compromising in the face of a serious challenge to his own authority and that of the Russian state. Of course, it could be argued that Putin’s Kasparov persona – the grandmaster of political chess – has been further cemented in the Russian public’s mind. No blood was spilled. An enemy was neutralised. Voilà- Putin’s myth grows.
But what about the jackals of Rublevka plotting around their Diorama dining tables? What about those snivelling, wretched oligarchs hungry for loot and treasure and power? Will they feel emboldened?
Further afield, Putin’s standing has been tarnished. His friends in the South will have taken note; in turn, NATO will take heart. Optics – how things appear as to how they really are – can never be discounted.
A diversion? I doubt it. Because if a barely diverted disaster can magically transmute into a scripted diversion then logic’s rules must be rewritten and, to quote the Bard, ‘all are punished’.
I agree that the Kremlin’s strategy this time was to dissuade the coup from the first minute, instead of crushing like the Chechen terrorists in the theater in 2002! But we don’t know the reasons behind the change in strategy. From the beginning in a totally different context – this time with the war in Ukraine. What would be the political price of crushing this coup attempt? Was Prigozhin moving towards Moscow with just the convoy on the road? I don’t believe. Because the convoy was as easy to crush as the Chechen terrorists. And the Wagners in Rostov? And wouldn’t there be terrorists waiting in Moscow too? Ritter speaks in Ukrainian cells. I don’t know.
But not all actions have to be taken within the first 24 hours. Especially when we don’t know the structure of the entire operation. Which ended up suppressed at a relatively low cost. And if any Russian secret service had known about the operation it would never have started. I, for example, still couldn’t understand why Prigozhin spoke about Africa. Which in itself opens up a series of political scenarios far beyond a war with Shoigu, the MOD or Gerassimov. Its not the MOD or Gerassimov that decides to deploy forces in Africa or Syria. I perceive a clear intention to destabilize not only the MOD and the regular forces but Russia politically on the international stage. Does Prigozhin also want to be Secretary General of NATO? I don’t think so. Maybe Prigozhin didn’t write the script.
Agreed.
Just trying to catch up what has happened , a few questions still to be asked. My initial thoughts was CIA Mi6 and appears they had a shot at a coup , Prigozhin took the bait and cash and informed Putin, you cannot make this up on the stupidity of the west. That is perhaps why he is still alive. All I know for now is the mood in the msm news was excitement on Friday to todays where it’s sombre.
If your thesis is correct Larry , I suspect we are on the verge of a large Russian offensive to hopefully end this. Great show on the duran the other day.
I believe that you are one of the very few to see through this Kabuki Theater, what made it work was the visceral hatred of Russia/Putin blinding people to reason and logic…..
What made it an unreasonable coup attempt –
1. The Arms and Ammunition come from the Russia DOD.
2. Pregozhin would have been put down long ago if he was that hostile.
3. No attempt made to sieze the communications networks.
4. Reports of more downed Russian Aviation than the Ukrainians accomplish in a month, BUT the only pictures are of a burned out plane where the Soviet Star has faded with time? All those mobile phones and no pictures?
5. A column that has just hit Surovikin’s Air Force is allowed to continue, like ducks in a row, on a main highway, unmolested? Think Iraqis leaving Kuwait, brutal…..
6. It all ends when Prigozhin strolls off to Belarus and the Wagner boys shuffle back to camp? A group of “traitors” are now accepted in and behind your ranks?
What was accomplished –
1. Wagner troops (and others assigned to contain the Wagners) were moved to striking distance of Karkov/Kiev surreptitiously.
2. The Chechens who were sent to confront the Wagner group (also street fighters) are now in position in the South to maybe move on Odessa.
3. The main Ukrainian “Counter Offensive” seems to have been triggered.
4. Many 5th and 6th Columnists have broken cover in Russia….
My 2 cents worth, your daily articles are my essential reading in the morning, thank you so much….
Always, Thanks to Larry ! wisdom and humor !!
From a Virgo to Leo…
Your posting numbers or analysis is an excellent x-ray and even an MRI -Magnetic Resonance imaging- of sick people in our nursing home who walk peacefully like tourist on top of a minefield…
Your analysis is the correct one, it exceeds all fantasy !!
It exceeds all literary creators, set designers, filmmakers and, far exceeds all Admirals, Generals, Colonels and other Arms Inspectors, who shudder vibrating sounds of apocalypse, on our poor tv screens, iphones and now some kabuki Ai…
Of your numbers, it is number #4 who wins the Golden Oscar,
all categories included!
Number #4 was the only motivation to organize this masterful piece of Shakespearean summer theater…
Missing Woody Allen !
At this stage, there was zero need for such theatre, absolutely no benefit could come out of it. Plus, there has been loss of life. Prigozhin lost his marbles, provided he had any to start with. He holds a personal grudge against Gerasimov and Shoigu, whose job he possibly eyed. The Russians played with fire by using him, he overestimated his importance in the grand scheme of things, and his conniption fit ended the only way it could end, as a tragicomic farce if you look at it as an outsider, as an extremely frustrating incident if you’re Russian. As a side note, the circus nature of the collective West has once again been on full display in the clownish enthusiasm that Prigozhin’s “coup” has aroused.
Westerners can not understand Slavs. and are coming up with nonsensical theories. They should pay more attention to comments like these.
It could be many things, all at the same time, to different degrees.
Like when an op is discovered, and then piggy-backed on (or partially diverted) to run a different op.
Scott Ritter’s analysis is more mundane and legalistic:
– The RF Constitution prohibits PMCs from operating on RF soil
– This presents a quandary w.r.t. the 4 oblasts that are now formally Russian soil (and potentially other parts of Ukraine that RF might annex go forward)
– To resolve the quandary, the MoD insisted that all individuals of Wagner would have to sign contracts directly with MoD (thereby taking away the “P” in PMC)
– July 1st was the deadline
– This would take Wagner out of Prig’s (and his masters/backers/allies in RF) control
– The monetary aspect was also likely a factor
Without signed contracts, the flow of food, fuel, ammunition, pencils, toilet paper, underwear, socks, postal services (letters home to the mom or wife and kids – I doubt all those guys are bachelors) grinds to a halt.
What to do?
The smart move would be to take the deal, think to oneself, “well, there’s always Africa” and plan for a reincarnation on the Dark Continent (and other places) in the form of some new dead musical genius.
Then there’s what Prigozhin did.
But is it conceivable that there was another “layer” to what he did?
Well, it’s a non-zero probability, but Ritter, Simplicius and Martynov think it unlikely (or at least indicate they do), as the optics are poor and although RF might not care about US/NATO, it does care about optics when it comes to countries like China, India, BRICS, Africa, etc.
The CinC of the RAF was disobeyed (effectively) and embarrassed during a time of active hostilities between RF and another nation-state (being supported massively by the major military powers). it’s not a good look.
I like the idea of the scam.
But the clincher for me is all the things Prigozhin was saying.
Kiev “never shelled” Donbas, massive Wagner losses, Russian incompetence – almost none of this could be take seriously by an objective observer.
But there is a group of people who not only believe this nonsense, but actually believe that Putin might fall if only these “truths” were spoken out loud.
Not Kiev, not CIA/MI5 who are if not smart far too cynical to get taken in.
The audience was Nato and the Ukrainian military – Maskirovka.
It may take day or two to find out what has actually happened on the ground in the last 48h.
BTW the obvious flaw in the CIA/MI5 theory is that the Putin opposition is not (believe it or not) a liberal Navalny, it is the hard liners which would quite happily drop large bombs, perhaps even a tactical nuke on Kiev. Potentially leading to a direct Nato-Russia war and possibly the end of mankind.
However I’d not so sure that the CIA/MI5 would get discouraged by that probably outcome.
Prigozhin is a career recidivist imprisoned robber who continued as an oligarchic owner of privatised state enterprises and contracted services.
His corporation was funded by the Russian state to run the military operations. Most of the money would go to paying his fighters. He would probably have syphoned off a proportion for himself.
When Wagner contract was to end, the fighters were to be absorbed into the Russian Army, and paid directly by the state. He would have lost his means of parasitic extraction.
He was possibly a sleeping CIA/MI5 asset even originally squirrelled into the Kremlin as a catering contractor.
When it seemed suitable, his handlers would have activated him to perform shadow ‘colour revolution’.
The fictive format ‘intention/action/consequence’ is too simple to represent what has been going on. Single motives of collective minds, coherent action patterns, and directly following occurrences aren’t manifestably real, and have to be guessed at, or augured [predicted from interpreting omens]. They don’t exist or are unknowable.
Thank you, Larry. I wonder if the Prigozhin code is: rant with one obvious lie, “My handlers have made contact again, so let’s talk”; rant with many obvious lies, “It’s on! Get everyone in place for the big show!”
Uh, no, Larry.
What happened was the MoD decided they wanted Wagner – the best urban assault troops in the world – in the regular army – without Prigozhin who has proven to be an unreliable front man and a con artist with political ambitions.
So they demanded that Wagner personnel sign regular army contracts with the MoD. This has been established.
Prigozhin, seeing his celebrity status – and income – as the front man for Wagner (which is owned and operated by the Russian GRU under the MoD and some say FSB – I doubt that because FSB is internal security where a PMC can not operate under Russian law – much more likely SVR0) – lost his cool as a result of his antics over the previous X weeks and months.
So he decided to pull a PR stunt to try to shame MoD into letting me stay. This was not a “coup” as AFAIK he only had one tank and three armored cars and only a couple hundred of his more moronic soldiers to back him. Everyone else in Wagner didn’t, including the officers who are all regular Russian Army (or -ex).
The stunt failed. Putin called Lukashenko, Lukashenko talked him down, now he’s going to Belarus.
This was a salary dispute between the unreliable con man front man and the Russian MoD. The con man believed his own con – his “celebrity status” – and thought he could up the ante for his political ambitions by pulling this stunt, figuring his celebrity status and his (alleged) connections with Putin would protect him from serious repercussions.
He was wrong. Now he’s ruined. His political aspirations are zero. His assets in Russia will undoubtedly be seized. His Wagner Group will be absorbed into the MoD.
Sometimes things are exactly as they seem. People need to remember that Prigozhin has a history of getting into fights with the political authorities, governors and such, as well as a criminal record. He was picked by the Russian GRU to be the front man for Wagner, after Wagner was formed by another front man, Utkin, who proved not to be that useful because he picked the Wagner from his call sign because he admired Hitler – not so good for the Russian image.
The only thing Russia loses from this is that Wagner can no longer be used as a “deniable asset” in foreign operations. Which doesn’t matter because no one in the West ever believed that anyway, with the Wagner base shared with the GRU base and especially after its operations in Ukraine.
This is the whole story. There is no conspiracy. Everything is exactly as it seems on the surface.
Terrific!! Poor Victoria “THE WITCH” Nuland. NOT!!!
The political equivalent of premature ejaculation😂😂😂
Finally, we are talking a Truth.
This event will consequently move the Earth, using momentum.
Many of Humans on this Planet are not aware “what is going on”, so Russians have to perform it “in Vivo”.
Many thanks to all Patriots in the USA who are “eye openers” for the West
Cheers
Please Prigozhin performer all the script of the West. That Russia should never have invaded Ukraine and that Russia steals Africa and here they continue to believe the Maskirovka version? On the troll Prigozhin?From the CIA and MI6! The reputational damage for Russia and the MOD is huge. Fortunately Russia prevented a bloodbath after the humiliation in Rostov and at the end of the day defeated a coup attempt with all the characteristics of Color Revolution. Which failed in timing and never managed to garner support from the Russian population due to Putin’s popularity. The GRU will have a lot to explain but someone who supports Russia continues to support a criminal like Prigozhin who has been defaming Russia for months, please… Andrei Martyanov explains the coup attempt well. Maybe because he knows Russia better! And he must have suffered a lot yesterday.
With this opinion, I fully agree.
Welcome Gera!
To corroborate Larry’s theory, Putin also went from statesman to entertainer in 24 hours. As the Kiev comedian! Think about it!
There is no evidence of any western backing for this attempted coup or mutiny or whatever you want to call it. This was a powerplay between a bunch of corrupt Russian oligarchs. However, it did have two positive results. First, it showed how weak Putin has become and what a coward he is for fleeing Moscow even though the Wagner mercenaries were still 200 km away. Second, it leaves Shoigu and Gerasimov in power, which is a good thing for Ukraine given how incompetent they are. As for Putin, remember that Gorbachev also survived an attempted coup, only to be toppled from power a few months later. Putin has been humiliated and weakened, and it will be fun to see how much longer he can stay in power.
These salty tears are delicious.
Actually Ron it is obvious this was co ordinated with the Canadian Truckers movement. This 3d chess match has been orchestrated out of Moose Jaw Saskatchewan Canada. The seized Russian plane at Pearson Airport was being loaded with bouncy castles and hot tubs. The whole operation would have succeeded if these items would have made it in front of the Kremlin. The whole operation was foiled as internal arguments about who was going to drive the plane to Moscow. This intel was easy to pick up as communication is still limited in the colonies and my aunt Myrtle heard this on the phone still connected with a party line. Found it hard to believe but Myrtle has been a pen pal of Putin since the 1976 Canada Cup hockey tournament. That has been the rumor in these parts for a while now. That is all I got for now. Take care
That’s brilliant!
Larry was close, but you hit the bullseye!
I guess if Prig gets the Oscar, VVP gets the one for Best Supporting Actor, right?
Blessings
L
Gerassimov is the most prestigious Russian General ever in Western Europe. That’s why Russia is crushing the offensive of Ukraine and a goodwill alliance of 31 western countries! In fact, I’m going to transcribe here my comment to the last show of the Judge Napolitano with Scott Ritter. To salt the wound of all Prigozhin fanboys and his attempted coup!
“In Europe the Minister of Defense is never a military man like the Minister of Health is not a doctor – friend of big pharma or the unions – to avoid the proximity of lobbies and corruption like in the US! Ministers should see the big picture and only children and social media fanboys, with their heads full of propaganda who don’t know what a Govt is, don’t understand something so simple. Who directs the Armed Forces is Gerasimov! The most prestigious Russian Military in Western Europe ever. Shoigu directs Russia’s public MIC!
And Prigozhin was completely corrupted by the West. You can see that from what he said yesterday. Denying civil war in Donbass and accusing Russia of plundering Africa?! Prigozhin was already twice convicted when he arrived at Wagner! The massive assessment failure is from the GRU! As at the beginning of the SMO in Karkhov. But about the Wagner PMC, when allowed a twice convicted to be the front man of the PMC and when didn’t realize that Prigozhin was corrupted in Ukraine!
What happened in Russia yesterday was an attempt at a color revolution that Russian intel could never have allowed. SVR and GRU! And the fanboys who love personality cults can’t get away from the Wagner myth! Prigozhin should have been removed and arrested a long time ago! Soon, when he defamed Russia and Chechnya. It probably didn’t happen because Russia needed the PMC in Bakhmut and showed weakness. Like yesterday in Rostov!
But at the end of the day the MOD also avoided a bloodbath! The big winner was the Russian population who did not support Prigozhin and boycotted the coup attempt. Credit also goes to Putin’s popularity, who nevertheless should have ousted Prigozhin a long time ago! Another recurring lie in the West is that all public figures in Russia are intimate with Putin! Which is manifestly false. Only Shoigu is part of the Govt’s inner circle! Prigozhin is a twice convict! Like many GRU PMC commanders! Wagner that must now be dissolved and the Commanders involved in coup arrested!”
P.S. The bill of the attempted coup goes straight to the batlefield in the UA! Let’s see which Govt falls first. In Moscow or in Kiev! In London, two have already fallen!
Yep just like Zelensky so scared to return to his country he is supposed to be leading. If anyone is running it’s not Putin. How can a country win a war when the commander in chief is attending glam
Events while his men die.
There is no evidence that anything that you have ever said is true.
Please take 2 Copiums and call a Doctor in the morning.
You don’t even make effort while writing this shit.
more cry Ronnie ,please!!!!
The gentlemen from The Duran have come up with an interpretation that sounds, to my ears, farfetched and frankly ridiculous. They say that ego got the better of Prigozhin and that he went off on a personal crusade to get his name back in the headlines.
I think that is absurd. I think that some of Prigozhin’s concerns are well-founded and that he took an extreme step to finally get someone to listen to him. Putin seems to know that Prigozhin has a point, or he would not have pardoned him.
This is a problem of Russia’s own making. They have been way too gentle with Ukraine and way to solicitous of global opinion. The war has so far been fought with the kiddest of kid gloves, and this has allowed these problems to ferment.
One thing I’ve learned today is that all the amateur internet pundets have no idea what they are talking about. The Duran boys think Prigozhing is an egotistical maniac (absurd), Scott Ritter thinks he’s working with Western intelligence (garbage), Dima has never been worth a dried cat turd from the beginning of this whole affair, and Simplicius the (ahem) Thinker’s take is so laughably bad that I have resolved never to bother with him again. Now, add Larry Johnson to the list of airball commentators who have no clue what’s going on.
The simple fact of the matter is that it is Prigozhin who really speaks for all of us who wonder why Ukraine is still a functioning state, why Western politicians traipse in and out of Kiev for photo ops, why Zelensky is still alive, why the Karkhovka dam was destroyed, why the ZNPP is still being shelled, and why the Russian citizens of Donbas are still subjected to Ukrainian terror attacks. If this is supposedly an existential threat to Russia, then freaking act like it.
The gauntlet has been thrown down. Putin had better do something after today, because it looks like nobody is really minding the store in Russia.
Say what you will, but you can’t deny that none of this would have happened if Putin had only fought the damn war already.
Perhaps all the theories are true to some extent. The ‘coup’ was a NATO/oligarch operation as well as Russian maskirovka, with Prigozhin playing both sides and working with both sides to give himself enough leeway to slip away unscathed. Don’t sue me, P, it’s just another theory…
Dang. Larry could make a good counter-intelligence operative, not merely an analyst.
There are certain pieces of vital truth that, if we keep them, we can deduce things more clearly. Not 100% of course, but always headed toward it.
For example: Regardless of all else that was happening around Bakhmut, the Russians always allowed at least one road into the area for the Ukies to keep sending their cannon fodder in. Russia could have closed all inward avenues in a day, but always let at least one open. So we knew they intended Bakhmut to be a bear trap for getting rid of as many Ukies as the West was willing to lose.
Larry usually states all possibilities, and then narrows down by keeping these certain truths (as do his commenters for the most part).
That’s why I keep sonar21.com on the ‘must read’ list. Larry is analytical (like most of his readers tend to be), and helps people stay on top of what are the “most likely” motives for what the Russians are doing.
The West on the other hand is very easy to figure out… blind hostility to all things Russian, and every word a lie, the combination of which makes it easy to figure out the West.
Thanks, Larry.
Just 1 Final Thought, y’all.
To make the thing believable as Maskirovka, we need to see a few executions. Maybe Prig (a fitting last bow as he exits the stage), but most certainly many of his inner circle of close confidants, and a few lower level commanders as well. Once this happens, the brain-trust at Larry’s former employers will surely be running for the restrooms.
Sometimes, ya gotta take one for the team!
Maskirova is 100% a plausible & likely explanation considering the fact that the march towards Kiev at the start of the SMO was itself one elaborate ruse to scare Ukraine into signing a peace deal, which it did & Putin nearly succeeded in pulling it off had it not been for Boris Johnson’s swooping in.
For the Maskirova coup plot to work & look realistically believable, it would have been a closely guarded secret in which not everyone in the Russian & Wagner chain of command would have known. Certainly not the rank & file. This may have accounted for the Russian helicopters attacking the Wagner convoy which in turn invited the Wagner shoot-down.
On hindsight, Putin’s speech contained oblique reference to the 5th column in the Russian political & military sphere – some of their hidden cells were busted by the FSB days before the “coup”.
Certain outcome is Wagner PMC is history.
Prigozhin’s comment: “back to field camps according to the plan”, gave it away for me.
In addition to the drama around Prigozhin, there is a Belarusian contingent in the Ukrainian army that has been training to launch a coup (with NATO/US support) to overthrow Lukashneko. When the coup drama unfolded and Russia looked vunerable and distrated, a leader of the contingent went on line (TikTok I believe) to announce their plan. Obviously, in hindsight, they got over thier skis and tipped off the Belarusians.
There are many facets to the Prigozhin saga – more to come I’m sure.
Sorry Larry in this case, disagree. It’s a clusterf**k, exactly what it looks like. Never attribute to intricate plotting what can be explained by stupidity. It is instructive to read Machiavelli’s warnings regarding the behavior of mercenaries.
Great damage has been done to Russia’s prestige. Lavrov and the diplomatic corp will have to work twice as hard to dispel the view that Russia is unstable with respect the formerly non-aligned countries to establish world multi-polarity. Russia must fight on two fronts: a military and a diplomatic one.
Perhaps time will ameliorate perceptions. Also (Nietzsche says) that which does not kill you makes you stronger.
I guess we’ll see as to your military theory regarding troop movement. However, everything is still visible by satellite so I’m not sure why it would make a difference the why Wagners are delivered to a set of coordinates.
The fact that it was a deception operation doesn’t mean that everyone involved knew it was a deception aimed at the West. Prighozin and his men may well have been serious, with the initial intention of a real coup.
But their intentions had already been understood by the relevant services, and they let them act. On the other hand, further defections elsewhere were neutralized, leading to a rapid collapse of the attempt.
In this scenario
Human losses make sense.
The money found at Wagner’s headquarters in St Petersburg makes sense.
Possible support from UK and Ukr makes sense.
The benefits to the Russians are as follows:
They appear weak when they are strong.
The USA, which wants the war to end for the election campaign and to pivot towards China, may be tempted to double down once again, hoping to succeed in collapsing Russia.
Traitors unmasked.
To avoid political damage and calm the concerns of those who have been worried among the BRICS (IRAN – Uganda, et. al.), a substantial short-term success seems necessary. This could be an offensive that may already have begun in the Kupiansk, Bakhmut and Donetsk regions. It makes sense to bring in reinforcements under cover of this psy op.
Meanwhile we were all distracted from proof of Biden and company’s treason being read into the record at the Durham hearings and other committees along with impeachment proceedings being commenced. . First the sub and now this. Practice ‘Informational hygiene’ as Martyanov says.
No bloodshed? Blood of pilots have been shed. This is not maskirovka, but betrayal by a mad man (though not a literal one, where one gets somehow paid for it by the enemy). Too much power got into his mentaly disturbed head, and he bit more that he could chew. He abused his position and made brothers kill each other. Making Slavs kill each other is what The West have been doing all along. It always required help of traitors, and there are always some waiting in line. Nothing unexpected, sadly. War goes on.
I wrote in a comment on Simplicius that we would know by Sunday whether it was a real mutiny or not. If Prigozhin was killed by then, then he went rogue and it was for real. If he was captured, it was a big psyop. He actually did one better: had Lukashenko negotiate a “deal” for him and his company. So, yes it’s looking more and more like a grand production (with some unintended casualties that actually create a good cover). It would not surprise me a bit if it turned out that Prigozhin was an intelligence plant by the GRU although he may have been at the outset an unwitting tool of an agent (or two) assigned near him who would play to his ego and egg him on against S + G to create waves. Whatever the real story, the Wagner org was unsustainable, especially because it gave a loose cannon like Prigozhin too much prominence in the SMO. He resented for real that S + G use his men as cannon fodder for political benefit of Putin, whose domestic politics require a low body count among the regular troops. The big problem for G + S and their boss is that overuse of Wagner (and other irregulars) in the SMO offensive ops makes it difficult to achieve real results. Putin’s praying for victory in Ukraine, resembles more and more St.Augustine’s praying for chastity: “Oh, Lord give me chastity, but not just yet!”
Belaruss could be a little wobbly, lots of footballs thrown around. Now a new player.
The only wrinkle in the playbook, is the death of 12 to 20 Russian pilots and even more casualties including crew. Plus a 100 million or so in aircraft. I expect we will learn more about these deaths when the war is over.
breaking CNN: Moscow – Wagner head Prighozin stages successful coup against himself, wins fierce street battle over his own sanity – more at the top of the hour
Whatever the reason for the attempted coup, the effect of the clown show is to politically immunize Russia against any more serious potential coup by mobilizing public consciousness against it and demonstrating the solidarity of Russian society and the state apparatus behind Putin.
I found it interesting that Putin didn’t refer to Prigozhin or Wagner by name. Was his message in fact directed toward other internal parties?
It couldn’t have been a ploy or stage play or ‘maskirovka’: just think about what Prigozhin has been saying about the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian army and the defence minister of the Russian Federation, about the war being a fraud and the regular army bombing the Wagners – this was way out of any boundary. You just can’t humiliate two of the most senior public servants in front of the world in this way, you can’t humiliate Putin by declaring, that all speeches he has given to justify the invasion were pure deceptions and lies and declare this merely an act. It was Prigozhin losing his mind, plain and simple.
The Duran guys got it right, from the beginning.
A fascinating hypothesis Larry, but I lean towards Occam’s razor in this case. What’s the simplest explanation to be found? The simplest explanation is that Prigozhin is egotistical and probably unbalanced by his proximity to brutal conflict for months and months. He seems to have a beef with the Russian military top brass and in a temper tantrum did something very foolish. Let’s say your hypothesis is correct. Mr P said very damaging things like Russia didn’t need to intervene and that Ukraine is doing well in the fight. These would demoralize the Russian public and empower dissidents who are anti-Putin. As could be seen by Western MSM reaction, it also boosts the flagging morale of the US and NATO and all but ensures Ukraine will be given lots of goodies at the upcoming NATO conference. I dunno, this Russian 5D chess idea seems to have too many cons in my opinion.
I think Occam’s razor dictates that the Russian state and leadership would never tolerate a loose cannon wack job in its midst in the middle of an existential struggle, unless such an individual’s actions and behaviors served their purpose.
I think it inconceivable that even an extremely valuable and talented general would be tolerated beyond more than one act of disobedience or highly visible tirade. Prigozhin is niether of those things.
What is your simplest explanation for such an individuals intolerable actions being tolerated in such circumstances? I haven’t heard a viable explanation for this question yet, simple or complex, aside from maskirova.
Prigozhin’s actions and behaviors served purpose until the late stages of battle for Bakhmut. His charizma attracted tens of thousands, and made them volunteer to go into the meatgrinder and die for the Motherland. Then he went off the rails, and Russian state and leadership (probably) decided to let him go after the battle is done. Few weeks ago they issued an order that everyone must sign contract with MoD ’till July 1. That would effectively absorb all PMC Wagner fighters into Russian Armed Forces, and leave him without his private army. July 1 is next weekend. This was his hail mary shot.
Hope this razor is sharp enough. Maskirovka has become a term that people from the West use to describe everything they don’t understand about Russia. Now there is a competition in creativity, like with some conspiracy theories. I expect someone to come up with a theory that Russians were part of the Moon landing hoax, and call it Moon Maskirovka.
I use the term maskirova because it is a term Russian commentators use, and because the author of the article makes reference to it. I think the word means deception, subterfuge. Not too hard to follow.
No. The razor you describe doesn’t cut. Shots (hail Mary or otherwise) at coup’s, insurrections, mutinies and the like don’t end bloodlessly and don’t get rewarded with vacations in neighboring friendly countries. Especially in times of war. It’s silly.
I am not talking about you, but about those authors and commentators. Maskirovka has become a trendy word that everyone wants to use, just like “counter-offensive”. Everyone and their mother are talking about “Ukrainan counter-offensive”, although it is an offensive and not counter-offensive. Sorry for the rant.
“Shots (hail Mary or otherwise) at coup’s, insurrections, mutinies and the like don’t end bloodlessly and don’t get rewarded with vacations in neighboring friendly countries. Especially in times of war. It’s silly.”
This hasn’t ended yet. Prigozhin’s reward with vacation is probably some kind of deal in order to prevent bloodshed. My guess is that Putin made a compromise in order to save lives of his soldiers. All those men are needed alive, for the frontline. He has been criticized for being too soft on multiple occasions (including by myself). He always turned out to be right, in the long term.
If you are not satisfied with the amount of blood, try finding a shaper Razor. If you find this silly, I recommend going trough a war in person. It can change perspective significantly.
What if… Russia did this “coup” as a planned training exercise?
Two oddities; nobody was shot or killed. There was no resistance to the Wagners anywhere. Only defenses around Moscow were being set up. Second, it was over rather quickly and everyone is forgiven. No punishments.
Prigozhin is the perfect person to lead a coup. Everyone believes that he is unstable. He has been critical of the MOD for many months. Wagner was being assimilated into the RF in a week. So they needed to find a new job for Prigozhin. He announced the bombing of his troops as a reason to start the coup, but he said 2000 casualties and none were shown in videos. As Larry said, he wins the Oscar.
Back to this being a training exercise. This was a Friday night/ Saturday operation. Businesses were mostly closed. Less traffic on the roads. The RF headquarters were captured in Rostov. Yet there was still rocket and missile attacks directed on Ukraine. So, did Wagner coordinate and lead those attacks? So Russia was able to transfer their command base to a different location, and still run the war with no noticeable issues?
What did Russia learn from this “exercise”?
They got to see how the civilian population would react and behave during an attack on Russia. People were told to stay inside and they behaved. They also essentially alerted the general population that a future invasion or future troubles will be coming.
Barriers and roads were prepared to defend Moscow. Were they quick and efficient? What defensive barrier types would and would not work well?
Security removed all of the important politicians and leaders to safety. Russia will learn if this went smoothly. Did they get out all of the correct essential people?
Russia learned how the west and NATO reacted both militarily and politically. On the western news sites, it was pure propaganda and idiot speculations. And also on the message boards. Russia learned if they do step “A”, then the west will react a certain way.
Russia learned how to quickly or efficient they could mobilize their military units stationed in Russia, in short preparation time from an attack.
They learned if a coup was announced, who would join or be a traitor. We will probably never know, but the FSB will.
Russia knows that they are at war with the west and NATO. This was a great “live ” training exercise to help the civilians prepare and react to an invasion from NATO.
Russia got to create a huge distraction and do whatever they wanted,militarily within Ukraine, without any public fanfare. They also tied up the west’s security services (CIA, MI-6, etc) by taking them off their regular tasks, and making them concentrate on a coup and what might happen within Russia and elsewhere.
On these message boards, there are many speculations as to this coup, but a planned training exercise fits the bill. Again, this was the most peaceful coup in history, with no fighting, no deaths, and no punishments. And everyone goes back to their regular jobs and routines like nothing happened.
Yes, and conveniently, 25000 Wagner soldiers are now going into exile in Belarus!😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
160 miles from Homiel, Belarus to Kiev. Russian Army can’t roll through Belarus to Kiev, but Wagner can.
Perhaps Artyomovsk was a dress rehearsal for the big city.
Let’s say that you had information that NATO was going to use some force against Belarus.
What would you do?
On June 17 Putin pledged to install nuclear weapons in Belarus. That didn’t get the attention it deserved, but that is fine.
How would you bolster the Belarus military?
How about scripting a charade mutiny? It has a couple of side benefits.
Since your intel network knew it was going to happen, they could watch to see which bad actors used Signal or encrypted Balckberrys or whatever to communicate with the’mutineers’. Russia still has the names of the perps from the Odessa Trade Council massacre, they take copious notes and have long memories. Lindsay, if you showed your hand you ought to outfit your bunker.
But the intel opportunity is not the only opportunity.
You get to send your old friend – under the cover of ‘banishment’ – to Belarus, where he can bolster the Belarus fighting forces. I’d bet Lukashenko got the word during the June 17 meeting. Thinking about another, _real_ drive to Kiev? Your man is in place, much closer to Kiev than from Donetsk.
Maria has told you that since they abrogated the 2019 agreement, that there is no legitimate Ukraine government. There will be a total surrender, but it won’t be signed by any current Ukrainian front man. He had his chance in March 2022 but he blew it. He will have to decide when and how he pulls off his escape, if he can, avoiding his destruction by NATO, his military or ordinary Ukrainians.
A huge convoy of Chechans moved under the guise of quelling Wagner and it basically flew under the radar
No it didn’t.
It’s amazing what real analysis can reveal. Thanks Larry, don’t expect to see you on CNN debating Petraeus. Laughing my head off. I said to myself months ago that Russia uses only 1 man to outwit the billions spent by western media corporations.
Here’s a another possibility Larry, I’m thinking about the war of attrition in a different light. Not only the attrition of Ukraine’s men and material, but the attrition of Western economics, the attrition of political instability that will only worsen over time. The uforia of the attempted coup will seize up rapidly as Ukraine continues to takes heavy losses. As Scott Ritter said this Sunday morning. At what point does the loss of man ratio go from 10:1 to 15:1?
This stunt will embolden West to devote more resources despite how poorly the so-called counter offensive is going. Putin is going to attrite Ukraine and the West of men and material and money, he’s going to weaken Western economies creating rising political turmoil. Putin is going to attrite the political and social cohesions of NATO as those countries further de-industrialize that in turn weakens their military industrial base and capabilities.
Moscow has played upon the West’s delusions, and spent 1/100,000 on propaganda versus the West thanks to Good ol Yevgeny.
I’m getting really bored with all the stupidness of NATO, Ukraine, and now Russia, specifically from Prighozin and up to 2k of Wagnerites.
The only factual evidence appears to be that the Duma had passed, and Putin signed, a law forbidding private armies from fighting on the territory of the Russian Federation. Since the incorporation of the four Oblasts into the Russian Federation that meant that Wagner could not legally fight in places like Bakhmut which means they had to be legally incorporated into the Russian Federation’s military. Prighozin opposed this and attempted to regime change, if not the RF, then at least its MOD. The attempt failed due to lack of any support in the RF, and the Wagner forces turned tail.
I would not want to be any of those guys.
Based on professional experience, governments sometimes create “emergencies” for various reasons; maybe to divert public attention from something that’s actually going on that needs to garner no attention or scrutiny, for example. Creating a scenario that grabs public attention & curiosity, without inducing total public panic is pretty easy – in other words, all flash and no substance. So, I tend to take what I’m seeing with a grain of salt, pay equal attention to what I’m NOT seeing as well as what I do see and generally go with my gut instinct.
I stopped paying attention to Prigozhin about a month ago – his rants were getting so over the top and unhinged I put it down to stupid blustering or psyop. Nobody at the Kremlin seemed to get their feathers too ruffled by it that I saw/read. Either way, there was definitely a build up in the public eye.
For numerous reasons, many of which Larry posted here, personally I think this was at least a partial psyop, if not a complete psyop. The fallout over the next few days will be interesting to watch, that’s for sure.
Something I did notice this past week was the return of the Globalhawk to the Black Sea for several days straight. It could be chalked up to NATO’s AD23, but the flight pattern was greatly expanded over normal, coming much closer to Crimea and towards Sochi. Usually when it is flying a lot, the Ukies make a move of some type. The USN has one of their P-8A Poseidons circling off the coast of Kaliningrad today, too.
I’d also bet a dollar to a donut that every government employee from every branch in Russia were having their texts, calls and movements monitored during this “event”.
Regardless of the circumstances, this was certainly the least violent, confrontational, destructive, panic-inducing and most amicably ended coup/insurrection I’ve ever seen. I’m in agreement with Larry about the plane/helicopter shoot downs – even if there is film I’d question it unless it was scrupulously verified as not fake or from some other time/incident during the conflict.
Planned in the Kremlin?
If it was, it was costly in terms foreign and domestic confidence in Russian stability. It looked bad.
Cover for troop movements?
If they stay in their new positions, then they have the potential for that axis of attack, regardless of why they moved.
I think the games and frictions between Wagner and the regular military were run of the mill. The “Prince” warned about mercenaries long ago. I think the Wagner chief was under pressure from heavy casualties and being pushed out of his power and status by the generals – and he had an emotional breakdown.
Re the possibility that the entire “coup” was staged to cover the repositioning of Russian troops for a coming offensive campaign: How long would it take for western ISR to recognize that troops have moved from point A to point B? This is not the 17th century after all.
If Lindsey Graham had been in charge of Wagner, Putin would be in prison today and Graham would be taking the salute from the troops from atop the Lenin Mausoleum
Time: 02:27:16
Date: 07 January 2021
Location: Bed Room 1A, Kremlin, Red Square, Moscow, Russia.
Event:
Sound of a bedside table lamp light switch.
Bed sheet rustle.
“Святое дерьмо, Еврика, у меня есть оно!” (Something like “Holy shit, eureka, I have it”).
Beep beep beepedebeep (sound of smart phone dialing).
“Shoigu?! Vlad here. Get your arse here now. Bring Armageddon, and that bald guy, what’s his name, the loud mouth. I have a GREAT Чертовски план” (go figure that one out yourself).
Hangs up.
“Hahahaaaa, we are gona teach those Выборы a lesson in humility. Analysts, professionals, strategists, military leaders, ha, my rectum! Ha!”
And now, you know the rest of the story.
Since hi rant about insufficient ammunition, totally contrary to what “experts” I read claim about Russian war doctrine, (after all, I am a political imbecile and follow a number of people with insight better than mine), I knew something was amiss. Really, a cook, restaurateur with a criminal history and little or no military experience is placed in a strategically critical position, and has so little diplomacy that he sounds off about those who are his main support if not his direct bosses. The wolf suit does not hide this sheep.
But, a great comedy, one that will become part of history and not part of US military’s proudest moments.
@ Mack
Excellent comment. It’s surprising how the Russians are running circles around the combined West so effortlessly! LOL It’s same 2 step song and dance combo and the Westerners(Not all, hat tip to Larry) fall for it every time. Unbelievable!!!
I’m just one more voice here Larry, but this analysis seems pretty shallow. “Moving troops around” to not raise a NATO eyebrow? Rather elaborate for that, & doubt MOD cares much about NATO “eyebrow raising” since under constant ISW surveillance anyway.
“IF” a movie, the purpose appears to be more of a “drill” for Russia & Russians.
The desired “Martial Law is in place” , the 5th & 6th columns were activated & identified, the national response to an “attack” was rehearsed & assessed for future improvement. The Belarusian intended coup thwarted for now, and the upper echelons of the military are sweating their positions & have to actually perform at least minimally as competent as Wagner or look impotent to the Russians citizens.
I’m guessing the he truth lies in between, Prigozhin had some legitimate issues with the military, with basically having his “business” taken and grafted into the MOD, so I think it is also possible some of “his men” were killed by MOD or believed to be( does anyone remember the TASS article about Ukraine purchasing or getting ahold of 700 Russian uniforms & Russia made a point of printing that?? At the time I thought it was for a NPP Zephorozia FF event? But maybe Wagners troops were assaulted in some way & Prigozin tripped hard? )
Anyways, somehow Prigozhin will keep & rebuild his “business” and eventually go back to Syria or Uganda.
The big Russian “MOD” meet is tomorrow, I think we’ll all know more then. For now, Martial Law in Moscow stands, Duma bypassed for now, & the MOD are on the “proving ground” stomping on Ukraine at full speed, so whatever the “crisis” was about, most good came of it, but some international repercussions will come too.
Very well written, Larry. I can’t believe the establishment really fell for this charade, but who knows.
Whether an elaborate take on a ‘canary trap’ or not ; one outcome, for sure, any in Russia who evidenced both support for an insurrection and communication with western intelligence sources, those individuals just had their covers blown.
When you have to resort to psychology to explain, you are pitching a totally subjective idea that cannot be verified. Prigozhin thinks this and Prigozhin thinks that. It is how to create a narrative, a story, that shuts down the critical thinking apparatus.
Questions: WHY did this take place over the weekend? Why was this over in 24 hours? Why is the endgame the “exile” of the “traitor” to Belarus with “mediation” from an “independent” third party with “mass amnesty” for the “coup” plotters?
This is obvious theater, and not even convincing theater at that. So the official propaganda coming from Russia is not to deceive, but to give the West propaganda for its citizens justifying their decision not to escalate.
You are to be commended, Larry, on a first rate analysis of this weekend’s theater.
First class analysis with the covered troop movement,thanks Larry.
One name is being forgotten though: Kadyrov. Prighozin is not the first one dishing out. Before him there was already Kadyrov crying havoc. I remember very well two instances in Mariupol last year where he went berserk blaming the military HQ to be corrupted and a bunch of traitors threatening to visit them personally. This incidents were on the front pages in swiss newspapers as is now Prighozin.
I write a Substack yesterday speculating on nearly all of this (not the troop movement part). Thanks for thinking like me as I was feeling very lone ranger when no one was buying it in conversations. Now Prigozhin has claimed the back half is true. Suspect we’ll have to wait a little on the front part!
It is estimated that Prigozhin scammed 6.2 billion dollars off the British and American intelligence services. This has been going on for months. This was not a coup or an insurrection. It was a scam and the Russian government was in on it.
What’s more likely? Some grand 3d chess, or the following:
Prigozhin had never been in a sustained, urban warzone until now (Utkin was probably the more ‘in the trenches guy). He probably had some enemies, including Shoigu, that did screw him over at times (classic factionalism). No doubt the stress was affecting him. Further, consider how likely he is now idolized in Wagner by the troops. This guy is a charismatic billionaire fighting the fight with them, as opposed to some geezer bum in the MoD (from their perspective) 2000 miles away. I believe it was reasonable to view that he became a bit of a classic warlord, and what do warlords do? I think the stuff with the contracts was the final straw, and he exhibited the classic paranoia of extended battlefield exhaustion. I think he was planning this for a bit, but in a sloppy manner. It was a not a coup against Putin, but he was coming for his enemies. The contract with the MoD must have seemed the largest FU to him of all, especially considering the negotiation was with Putin on behalf of the very Ministry that he believed had been trying to screw him over – the ultimate betrayal.
To imagine this was 3d chess is a bit too much. Russia moved nukes to Belarus – what, are they suddenly a bashful dame that doesn’t want to move more troops there as well?
I think Lukashenko acted as a calming presence, and successfully appealed to Prigozhin.
Look, I don’t believe the media, and I don’t claim to know what is going on. But, unless Russia suddenly struck based on a momentary confusion of NATO caused by this, this is nonsense. It is not as if NATO stopped watching troops for 24 hrs as this unfurled and are now scrambling to turn back on the satellites.
This also explains the pardon: Russia cannot afford sudden civil strife. Putin’s a pragmatist – and Moscow might very well have been taken. I don’t think this would have toppled Russian government, but it would have decimated morale and the war effort. And let us not forget that oligarchs still abound that have not forgotten when he humiliated them and made them sign that paper on camera. And not just the ones in Britain. Plenty are still in Russia. I am sure Putin is aware that knives are always seeking his back.
You make good points. I’m just glad this was settled peacefully.
Russia needed to do two things prior to the upcoming offensive against Kharkov and Odessa.
1) Ensure that any potential threats at home are taken care of and
2) Impress upon ordinary Russians that the future of the country is at stake.
Prigozhin’s 22-hour mutiny accomplished both tasks. Now, anyone thinking of taking on Putin will have either been flushed out or will be cautious of joining any future mutiny since it might be fake and the Russian population got a good scare.
Fine acting indeed.
In reading Western propaganda, a constant claim is that if not for Putin’s iron fisted rule, the mass of Russians and their oligarchs would rise up against him. Watching videos out of Rostock it seemed like the population was more interested in taking selfies with Wagner tanks than marching on Moscow.
Few more indirect arguments for “fake coup”/maskirovka theory.
https://t.me/ZOVSVObodi/1403
https://alexandr-rogers.livejournal.com/1675028.html
https://t.me/rogers_kitchen/9979
Since we’re all speculating, how about this: Political hacks like Nuland have been saying from the start that Putin is skating on thin political ice, his support is suspect, he’s not that popular among the people that matter – the mini-oligarchs of the country and so forth. One US senator, in particular, has even publicly appealed to members of the Russian military to overthrow Putin by whatever means necessary. So these hacks really, really thought this whole Ukraine deal would work to change the leadership in Russia.
But what is not exactly clear, is who in the US is making the really tough, critical military decisions. The military brass or the neocon crazies (the politicians and bureaucrats in the US government)? So here’s one way to find out.
Use what the crazies really want to see (a coup attempt on Moscow) only make it so that any serious military person could detect, from 5000 miles away, that it is A) not a real coup or B) it will never succeed. And then watch what happens, but also deescalate the “coup” early before anything too crazy happens. In such a scenario, Moscow finds out who picks up the red phone and dials Russia, who tries to defuse the crisis, basically who from Washington contacts the Kremlin to make sure some level-headed person is in control of the red button.
I know this is a stretch, but if I were sitting in the Kremlin, I’d be wondering who’s running things in Washington in an emergency because it looks pretty crazy from where I sit. And I’m sure it looks the same to the rest of humanity. Just a thought.
I thought possibly and MI6/CIA 3 ring circus that enjoyed all the success it deserved when the Russians flipped the script and stung the operation
This operation was a STING, no question!
Those suddenly appearing or disappearing 6 Billion!
Jajaja….. The Russians are laughing all the way to the bank.
Bravo, Putin Rx…. Smooth move exlax!!
@Larry,
here in India there are videos circulating that claim CIA payment to Prighozin, worth 6.2 Billion USD. Valid ex administrative(IAS) guys. I think you hit the nail on the head 100%. I think you covered this aspect in a previous video too, so good looking out. If possible please do an article on expectations of Biden of an India China war. Best regards from India.
Just thinking. While Russia has to fight against the entire USNATO and against a crazy bunch of Slavic Nazis, the entrepreneur and cook organizes and stages an uprising with a “handful” of Wagner mercenaries, allegedly completely unnoticed by the Russian secret service. Putin rightly calls him a traitor and promises severe punishment. Not a Russian negotiator, but the president of Belarus, mediates in this internal Russian affair. Prigozhin is cleared of all charges that evening and goes to Belarus as a free man in asylum. (Not to London). Rumor has it that Wagner units have also been moved to Belarus. I claim to know nothing. But I may find all this strange.
It does sound strange, until one compares it to other events happening in this tragicomical world. Those Slavic Nazis are financed and controled by Jewish-Americans (Nuland, Blinken et al.) and Jewish-Ukrainians (Zelensky and Ukro oligarchs), and also homosexuals, and who knows who else. Nazis are now allies with the untermensch they tried to exterminate back in the day, except Russians. It turns out that exterminating Slavs was what Nazism was all about, and all of the Western World is on the bandwagon. All of those WWII veterans from the west must be rolling in their graves. They fought Nazis only to have their grandchildren support them. Compared to all that, a psychotic guy with criminal record doing criminal and psychotic things doesn’t sound that strange.
Fog of war is thick, and it will take a while to find out what really happened. When Russian army was north of Kiev, no one knew what it was all about. What is happening now, we will know next year. Those claiming that they have figured everything out are talking out of their behind.
Planned in the Kremlin?
If it was, it was costly in terms foreign and domestic confidence in Russian stability. It looked bad.
Cover for troop movements?
If they stay in their new positions, then they have the potential for that axis of attack, regardless of why they moved.
I think the games and frictions between Wagner and the regular military were run of the mill. The “Prince” warned about mercenaries long ago. I think the Wagner chief was under pressure from heavy casualties and being pushed out of his power and status by the generals – and he had an emotional breakdown.
The Russian/Wagner group non-coup went exceedingly well. I’m sure the vodka and laughs were flowing freely last night in Moscow and Rostov, timing is everything, normal coups are messy, complicated, and dangerous as heck. If Prigozhin had really attempted this (even if he changed his mind at some point), he’d not only be dead but buried by now.
This happened 3 days ago:
Court dismisses Navalny’s appeal against lack of access to writing materials in prison
“Just hours after the trial began, Navalny announced the start of a campaign aimed at turning Russians against the war in Ukraine. In comments posted to his Twitter account, Navalny said the “absurd” charges could lead to him serving a further 30 years behind bars.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/22/europe/alexey-navalny-appeal-dismissed-intl/index.html
So, they let Prigozhin post the most incendiary things on Telegram and they won’t give Navalny a pencil & paper? That is weird.
The whole thing reminded me of the movie, “THE GODS MUST BE CRAZY”, when the tribesman trying to return the coke bottle ends up in a military caravan… similar to Prigozhin’s drive to Moscow.
Navalny is serving a prison sentence, Prigozhin is not, yet.
It’s funny, because I posted the same thought over at Naked Capitalism early this morning. Too many things worked out well rather than there being any disaster (which it seemed like as it was unfolding). It also played into the western media’s hopes and biases, which made it more effective.
In St. Petersburg the “Red Sails” celebration took place for high school graduation, complete with a massive firework show. Doesn’t seem like the reaction of a nation recovering from an attempted coup. Oh well…
Prigozhin looks like Uncle Fester, on steroids.
A mean uncle fester.
But he knew how to hold ’em and he knew how to fold them… when to fold ’em, too.
A well deserved rest & relaxation.
Maskirovka?
I have a hard time buying maskirovka because of the lost Russian pilots and the multi-million dollar destroyed aircraft. Presumably, the attack aircraft were in an attack mode on wagner convoy(s). Were there wagner casualties?
I just do not believe the Russian leadership is as cynical and sinister that they would sacrifice pilots for the sake of a realistic coup attempt. Nuland, zelenski, sullivan maybe yes but Russians no. And I do not buy the remote control aircraft. Il-72?, no way.
Now we here that us intell (sic) was aware of coup attempt and briefed congress?
I do not have a good idea as to what actually was the motivation but I am inclinded to believe western intell with oligarchs were up to there eyeballs on this and as is typical, totally mucked it up. Convoy up to Moscow, jeez, how bad can it get.
I strongly doubt that the narcissistic Putin would have stooped so low as to authorize this Trojan horse, which has ultimately made him the laughing stock of the entire world. It is truly laughable to entertain the idea that anyone could genuinely believe this narrative. Putin is renowned for exerting his total control over every situation, and it is inconceivable and incredulous that he would have allowed such a scheme to take place.
Send a message
Remember all of the opponents of Putin who spoke out in support of Prigozhin? Yeah, neither do I.
Joke is on you, the US led empire, and whoever else concerned. I guess the maskirovka worked as intended.
A/c to simplicius 20-30 military personnel died and 7-8 aircraft destroyed.
Plus huge damage to putin’s reputation.
Any troop movements will be reported regardless of cause and analysed by a competent military.
IMO I think this was P acting with foreign military intelligence. I think there were supposed to be Ukrainian breakthroughs on the front to coincide with his mutiny and attack on the mod. My subs he thought that would lead to further support from public and military on his way to Moscow?
Evidence please. Evidence. Simplicius says is not evidence.
Seems more likely damage to this Simplicius’ reputation instead, heh. I know Saker was wary of him.
I could be absolutely wrong on this.
There’s lots going on atm which will become clearer in the weeks ahead.
That’s funny. I posted on Twitter earlier this morning: Prigoshyn is competing with Zelensky for an Academy Award:)
Now that the Isis – I mean White – Helmets are off the stage they both have a chance. Who are you rooting for? Zelensky has the more challenging role, requires more nuance, range of emotion. But Prigozhin gives a visceral performance, a tour de force as they say. I go with Zelensky myself.
Zelensky already got an Oscar, from Sean Penn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqKsQYVqNvo
RFK, Jr., has posted an interview with Scott Ritter regarding the coup: https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Think you’re on the right track.. as usual… Larry. Russians humiliating U.S. Intel while taking their money.
I mean C’mon Man! Coup troops parading all over western Russia and no fighting….. People getting selfies with the Wagner boys….
Everybody wants to Rule the World.
Tears for Fears:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znDgBy2mHbc
One of Simplicius’s earlier pieces said the worst thing for Russia would be Ukraine calling off its offensive prematurely, keeping experienced troops alive to cause problems later.
The Russian strategy all along has been to lay traps for NATO which, in its arrogance, always takes the bait, with disastrous consequences.
As well as providing cover for the mass movement of Russian troops, might the “coup” also have been an attempt to hoodwink the Ukrainians into thinking Russia was collapsing, and that one last push might make all the difference?
I think the downed aircraft, if true, support your argument. Just enough to look convincing, not nearly enough to challenge Russia’s might.
Kiev is the Center of Gravity!
I think having Pregozhin in Belarus is important. To end this war decisively they have to attack south from Belarus to close the western border. Putin needs Pregozhin there (probably with 8-10K wagnerites brought in as Russian troops) to ensure their ally does not waver on the plan.
I agree with the maskirova explanation. A one day coup by a merc gang caravanning around the country where nobody gets killed and the leader gets punished by getting to just go rest in Belarus for a bit. The entire episode is a farce. Another farcical story is that Russian leadership has been tolerating an exceptionally visible malcontent and trouble maker, a disrupter, supposedly occupying a center position in its military in the middle of a war for the survival of Russia itself. All by and for a guy without a military background, who brings nothing to the table in terms of war fighting expertise. Absurd. None of it is believable. Maskirova.
And just look at the results. The western exceptionals just gobbled it all up, because it fits perfectly their echo chamber stereotypes of Russia. Brittle (thanks Patraeus, thats such a good one), impoverished, unstable, brimming over with would be insurrectionists, always imminently collapsing. Next thing you know the flagging Ukranian offensive is revitalized and the meat grinder gets stuffed full of men and machines again. Qui Bono? Russia.
Maskirova.
Larry your writing is just too good. Thank you!– fascinating- Prigozhin gave up his businesses and reputation for more $$ and to help Russia? –Wagner is still active in Syria and Africa as Wagner for now? Is the West intel and leadership really that stupid?
@ Larry
John Helmer (Aussie journo – actual real old school, continuously in Moscow longer than any other Western journalist) over at “Dances with Bears” says Prigozhin IS UNDER HOUSE ARREST IN BELARUS – also, has lost access to his fortune – doesn’t say whether that is a permanent arrangement or what. NO ONE ELSE HAS MENTIONED eitherTHAT afaik !! IMO, John Helmer has very good ‘sources’ in Moscow, & is often way ahead of everyone else. Being human he does make mistakes but they are few & far between imv He’s unable to leave Belarus. If true it’s a tad more serious that “Putin let him go”
The news in New Zealand is all “Putin Weak”, “Regime collapsing any second.” All the foreign affairs, security policy ‘wonks, Think Tank Anal-cysts (not mine – from “b” at Moon of Alabama . . . . . couldn’t resist) have obviously been handed the same script outline. No mention of Hunter Bidens ‘life sentence’. or related whistleblowers. Ukraines losses in the East ?? – zip. The IDF losing 7 mostly armoured vehicles in a raid on Jenin?? – Nope. All embarrassing to TPTB so all we hear is “96 hours of oxygen” & now “Russian Civil War” . . . . . but, but, but. They must be pulling the last of their hair out in the various Western capitals
Great analysis! Some have dismissed the maskirovka scenario out-of-hand. But I’m not so sure. A number of things don’t add up. People think Prigozhin is just a loose cannon, as he appears to be on the surface. But he has also shown himself to be a shrewd businessman. And his backstory… going from prison, to selling hotdogs on the street during the nightmare 90’s, to becoming Russia’s greatest chef, to serving dinner at the Kremlin and accompanying the President on his vacation trips. A loose cannon would have trouble achieving that. And Putin is not someone who admires loose cannons, at all. He is exactly the opposite of that. Restrained. Careful with what he says. It could be that opposites attract. Or it could be that Prigozhin is not such a loose-cannon as he appears on the surface. I think maskirovka is indeed a real possibility. Thank you for your article! I’m still laughing about the “premature ejaculation” of the corrupt cronies in DC!
In Russia everything goes according to plan, and streets have to be clean. 🙂
https://www.bitchute.com/video/7cUBjCdvm1Bq/
I think our friend James Kunstler got this one just about right:
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/coup-coo/
NO MORE RUMOURS and speculations! Here is what we KNOW today from Prigozhin himself – for those who can understand or translate verbal Russian. No need to speculate anymore.
https://t.me/olegtsarov/6997
For the reaction of the Russian people at the time in real time as it was happening last Saturday watch Patrick Lancaster’s video on youtube (in Russian/English).
Did he pinky promise not to lie about anything this time?
You are shilling for a criminal. Go away,
https://odysee.com/@RT:fd/Putin_speech_2606:9
I’ve translated Prigiozhin’s latest words – from the recording that was on Telegram. For English speakers.
https://deborahlarmstrong.substack.com/p/prigozhin-we-gave-a-master-class
I love this summary of events Larry. I think it has the appeal of completeness. I must admit that I didn’t think that Prigozhin would have worked with western intelligence beforehand, pretence or not, but it does explain the readiness of the west to believe a coup was happening a bit better. Not essential though perhaps?
The reason I say this is because I knew that Putin and Prigozhin are very close friends, and that Putin appointed Prigozhin to set up and operate the Wagner PMC on his and Russia’s behalf. The PMC designation kept it at arm’s length from the state, but it was always funded by and essentially integrated into the Russian Army.
I like to believe that it may have arisen thus: Putin and Prigozhin met, Putin saw in his friend a mind that worked in a fashion of the type important for a successful special forces group. That is, pragmatic, trimmed of bureaucracy, able to adapt to events and situations quickly, and to arrive at and/or use new technology easily, and fluid of mobility to troublespots. Like special forces are intended to be, it would be deployed and applied as an effective tool to be relied on in difficult zones.
I believe that the key is that Prigozhin thinks like Putin does – miles ahead and patent to whatever extent is required. He has a devious mind that can come up with unusuagl and creative solutions to military problems. An amusing illustration is the ways that Wagner has been able to trick and ambush Ukrainian forces , over and over in recent situations in the field.
Putin makes loyal and solid friendships, because once he offers his, that is his charactPutiner also. Prigozhin’s friendship with Putin will be of this calibre. I can well imagine them discussing and planning this ‘coup’ perhaps even in 2021, when the SMO was first contemplated. No doubt refinements were added along the way as events changed the scenarios. I think that one of Putin’s aims in staging this apparent coup was to first make the west, so desperate to think that their goal had just dropped into their lap, think that it was really happening. Then the disappointment of the non-event would be even keener, especially as Putin publicly rubbed in the wound how the Russian army, government and the society were all united and not subject to the west’s ‘divide and rule’. Putin’s main aims were to inflict a mortal wound in the confidence of the western elites, as well as to cover the movements of the wagner troops behind the front lines.
I also support the “maskirovka” theory, ESPECIALLY today, when Prigozhin – “finished, done” in the strong opinion of Scott Ritter – is now walking victorious in St. Pet and being photographed holding hands with African leaders. He is very obviously NOT finished and VERY victorious. In my opinion, it was a smart plot to avoid putting Wagners under MO RF while LEGALLY moving its forces to Belarus to enforce the Polish border. They did not need any “maskirovkas” in Africa since they were officially invited there – but look how fast they brought desired results! Took them just a few short weeks and they completed the task just before the Russia-Africa summit – what a win!