When the uber neo-con Institute for the Study of War is conceding, reluctantly, that Russia is carving up the Ukrainians in the Donbas, it is an unmistakable sign that something big is up. Here is the ISW’s spin:
Reinforced Russian air-defense systems in eastern Ukraine are increasingly limiting the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, undermining a key Ukrainian capability in the war.
Russian forces continued to make gains to the south of Lysychansk and will likely reach the city in the coming days, although they are unlikely to quickly capture the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.
Russian forces continued offensive operations towards Slovyansk and made minor advances.
Russian forces intensified efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway in order to support Russian operations towards Lysychansk.
Russian forces focused on defensive operations along the Southern Axis and may have made marginal gains within Mykolaiv Oblast.
Russian authorities are continuing measures to facilitate the economic integration of occupied areas.
While conceding that Russia is advancing steadily in the Donbass, the ISW folks try to downplay the situation on the ground by insisting the gains are “minor”. They are not minor. The ISW’s analysis reminde me of Leo DiCaprio in the Titanic hanging on to the floating head board of a bed while freezing to death. Here are two examples:
Members of the Russian military community continue to comment on the shortcomings of Russian force generation capabilities, which are having tangible impacts on the morale and discipline of Russians fighting in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike (likely with a loitering munition, though this cannot be confirmed) on a Russian oil refinery in Novoshakhtinsk, Rostov Oblast, on June 22.[
And what is ISW’s evidence for Russian shortcomings? A blogger in Russia who claims to be former military. The blogger, Yuri Kotyenok, insists the Russians are press-ganging reluctant “recruits” to reinforce depleted Russian troop strength. For the love of God, will someone let the dispirited, downcast Russian troops (sarcasm alert) know that their progress in the Donbas is illusionary (so implies ISW)?
Here is a clearer picture of what is going on courtesy of the Russian Minister of Defense:
On June 21, an attack launched by high-precision armament of Russian Aerospace Forces resulted in the elimination of up to 500 servicemen of the 59th Mechanised Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), as well as their armament and military equipment deployed in the workshops of Okean shipyard located in Nikolayev.
Ukrainian servicemen of a battalion from the 57th Mechanised Infantry Brigade that had been defending near Gorskoye, Podlesnoye, Vrubovka (Lugansk People’s Republic) refused to obey the order of their command and abandoned all their positions after losing more than 60 per cent of personnel.
This night, Ukrainian command evacuated up to 30 wounded and 8 killed American and British mercenaries to prevent their capture by units of the Russian Armed Forces in view of the possible defeat of the units from the 14th and the 24th mechanised brigades near Nikolayevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Operational-tactical and army aviation have eliminated: 5 munitions depots of the AFU near Sidorovo, Verkhnyaya Kamenka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Miropolye (Sumy region), 1 Buk-M1 air defence missile system near Kurakhovo (Donetsk People’s Republic), as well as manpower and military equipment in 151 areas.
Missile troops and artillery have neutralised 253 manpower and military equipment concentration areas of the AFU, as well as 6 munitions depots near Lisichansk, Verkhnekamenka, Mirnaya Dolina, Loskutovka and Podlesnoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).
Within the counter-battery warfare, 13 Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher platoons have been neutralised near Ostroye, Gornyak, Kodema, Dzerzhinsk, Kalinovo, Zoryanoye, Dmitrov, Novolugansk, Novgorodskoye, Leninskoye, as well as 10 cannon artillery platoons at their firing positions near Stepnaya Dolina (Nikolayev region), Spartak, Podgornoye, Nikolayevka, Leninskoye, Zaytsevo, Semigorye and Dzerzhinsk.
A U.S.-manufactured AN-TPQ artillery reconnaissance station has been destroyed near Nikolskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).
Russian air defence means have shot down 1 Su-25 of the Ukrainian Air Force near Barmashevo (Nikolayev region) and 1 MiG-29 near Apostolovo (Dnepropetrovsk region).
In addition, 16 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been show down near Bolshiye Prokhody, Malaya Kamyshevakha, Novodmitrovskoye, Vesyoloye, Belyayevkam Brazhkovka, Chervonoye, Dolgenkoye, Suligovka, Yasinovatoye and Snake Island.
Remember the game changing M777 155mm howitzers the U.S. gifted to Ukraine? That is not working out so well. The howitzers got blowed up (yes, I am guilty of poor grammar). Note the critical role that a Russian drone plays in carrying out this precision strike:
The Ukrainians tried another attack on Snake Island (you know, the pork chop shaped island south of Odessa in the Black Sea) and recorded another spectacular failure. Here is the Russian account:
On June 20, at about 05.00 AM, the Kiev regime attempted to capture Snake Island. The Kiev regime’s plan started with a massive launch of air and artillery attacks on Snake Island, followed by an amphibious troop landing to disembark troops and capture it. The air assault involved more than 15 Ukrainian attack and reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) adjusted by two Bayraktar-TB2 UAVs. The United States aided the attack with a Global Hawk RQ-4 strategic reconnaissance UAV of the U.S. Air Force .
The Ukrainian UAVs were supported in air by S-300 air defence systems from their combat positions near Tuzla and Ochakov. Ukrainian missile and artillery attacks were launched on Snake Island by Ukrainian Tochka-U ballistic missiles, Uragan multiple rocket launchers and M777 155-mm howitzers from their combat positions west of Odessa and in Kubansky island.
Russian air defence means (Pantsir air defence missile and cannon system and Tor air defence missile system) destroyed all the Ukrainian missiles–13 UAVs, 4 Tochka-U missiles and 21 projectiles of Uragan multiple rocket launcher. None reached their targets in Snake Island. The Ukrainians called off the amphibious assault.
Last, but not least, the Russians claim they hit a major Ukrainian command post near the Donbas and killed 50 Ukrainian generals and officers. Igor Konashenkov, spokesman of the Russian Defense Ministry, reported in a video released on Sunday:
At 12:30 p.m., Kalibr high-precision long-distance sea-based missiles were launched at a command post of the Ukrainian troops near the village of Shirokaya Dacha, Dnepropetrovsk region at the moment when there was being held a working meeting of the commanders of Aleksandriya operational-strategic group.
The attacks have resulted in eliminating more than 50 generals and officers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU), including those of the General Staff, the Kakhovka group, airborne assault troops and units that operate towards Nikolayev and Zaporozhye
Ukraine is now suffering catastrophic losses. In case you skipped over the briefing of the Russian MOD, there were significant American and British casualties in one of the attacks-30 wounded and 8 dead. These are significant losses. The Russians are not behaving like a force barely hanging on by its finger nails. There operational pace is increasing and the situation of the Ukrainian forces in the east is becoming more dire.
Russians have a highly developed sense of “f**k you”
The street where the US Embassy in Moscow is located had its name officially changed. The new address of the Embassy is
“1 Donesk Peoples Republic Square”
Fantastic – after all the name changes (and name reversals now) in Ukraine.
I Lvov that.
I’ll raise your Lvov to a Lveev!
Incredible article. The video showed the Russians waiting until the entire artillery batteries were set up before they engaged the targets, up to an including camouflaging the guns. Interesting the Ukraines never detected the drone right above them watching every move they made.
Is that video really from a drone? It is so still and stays over the sight for a while.
Are the Ukrainians really that sloppy they don’t notice it?
They neither try to bring it down nor just move onwards somewhere else having been geo-located.
Or could it actually be a satellite instead?
(I’d got for a satellite except i don’t think we would be shown the pictures then)
Yes, it is. The drone is not easily seen from the ground. An effective air defense system would see it and shoot it down. Ukraine is deficient on that count.
The magnification is incredible, I seen one where they are looking at a man’s face in the forest line, then zooms out to at least a KM away.
i think one need to have area wide EM/EW jammer to disrupt small drone’s commo link , these are controlled drones and not totally autonomous drone.
This said , i think russia’s EW/EM jammer can block a large area but it seem they do not use this assets (saving them for the war with NATO i presume) , just like how Russia do not show all their cards in this SMO.
It is unconscionable that people who push the pawns just let these soldiers go to slaughter. All of these men could have lived healthy productive lives some of which had families and all have loved ones. The neocons and the globalists are not human. If this conflict breaks the globalists and causes them to be thrown out and real change happens then at least their lives werent wasted. Still …
Why so concerned ? It is always the ignorant pawns who get slaughtered while old men plan for war. Remember the WW1 slaugher ? Remember the Battle of Cannae where flower of roman youth gone in a day ?
I don’t feel any sympathy for the Ukro soldiers. Firstly, they are killing as many fellow citizens including critical infrastructure as they possibly can. They’re all War Criminals in my view.
Amen! I don’t care over much about which side they are on; these UKR troops are being abused by their leadership and flaming jerks like Max Boot. Carlson featured a Boot clip last night; pounding the desk and repeating “Its our war”. Sorry, bub! Its not and I’m happy to tell young guys that there is nothing worth dying for in UKR or the MidEast. Boot can send his children. oh I’m sorry, he and his buddies are Ivy League! Excused duty!
The UKR guys are in all likelihood blue collar guys like me, ones who couldn’t afford to scarper off to Europe. They are guys who fix cars, farm, work in the plant, have families etc. The draftees and other reluctant troops most likely don’t want to be the and it takes a seriously evil SOB to send them into a hopeless situation.
In more practical terms, Russia needs them alive to rebuild the mess.
https://rumble.com/v197hcr-u.s.-urges-corporations-to-keep-working-with-russia.html
This conflict is about winning WW3 without firing a shot. Block Nord Stream 2, subjugate Germany, the EU industrial powerhouse, make sure that Germany doesn’t integrate with Russia and China economically. Buy dirty and expensive US oil and gas.
Remember the EU signed largest trade deal in history with China:
“The 15 member countries account for about 30% of the world’s population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of global GDP ($29.7 trillion), making it the largest trade bloc in history.[3] Signed in November 2020, RCEP is the first free trade agreement among the largest economies in Asia, including China, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea.[4]”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Comprehensive_Economic_Partnership
We just won WW3 without storming the beaches at Normandy.
https://braveneweurope.com/michael-hudson-america-defeats-germany-for-the-third-time-in-a-century
who is this ‘we’ ? Russia and China still standing strong while NATO shrank into a force of narrative and posturing. WW3 is not against german’s economy , once US puppets are voted in germany the deindustrialization is basically done. German citizen are too orderly and naive to fight their own govt , even if their current govt do not serve german interest or it’s people.
i love mr hundson and his writing , though he should avoid using WW3 term as the war is not with germany but with FAR devastating nations of Russia and China.
This is the time of the KINGS OF THE EAST to reign , where the Seat of the Empire will move east again after centuries of humiliation
Yes the East will inevitably rise again. But the World Economic Forum are the puppeteers of the governments of the West and need to be publicly exposed for who and what they are. Both Russia and China could do themselves and the world a great service by explicitly, publicly, and consistently calling them out by name. Then the other countries of organizations like SCO, EAEU, ASEAN and the global south could and should do the same. There will be no hope for peace in this world until the power of the WEF (and Bilderberg scum) is destroyed and their one world depopulation, transhumanist, dystopian agenda ceases to exist.
I read on another blog that Alistair Crooke wrote a great essay on Strategic Culture Foundation that is now censored he used this term to describe Biden and the US’s predicament. I will try to get ahold of the article he’s a brilliant writer and thinker:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zugzwang
“When you have to make a choice and every choice is a bad one it’s called a zugzwang?
Zugzwang (German for “compulsion to move”, pronounced [ˈtsuːktsvaŋ]) is a situation found in chess and other turn-based games wherein one player is put at a disadvantage because of their obligation to make a move; a player is said to be “in zugzwang” when any legal move will worsen their position.”
This is bullshit post by LJ !!!
information from RESPECTED sources indicates Russia in the brink of collapse due to unsustainable LOSSES !! This is the headline from DRUDGE REPORT the most trustworth news aggregator in the WORLD
“SUMMER CARNAGE: Russian Troops in Ukraine Facing Extraordinary Casualty Rates…
Reaching unsustainable levels…The casualty rate equals roughly 55% of its total force, according to the U.K. Ministry of Defense, “which highlights the extraordinary attrition rate Russian and pro-Russian forces are suffering in the Donbas. The Institute for the Study of War, citing the BBC’s Russian service, noted that new Russian recruits receive only three to seven days of training before being sent to “the most active sectors of the front. The BBC also reported that volunteers within the Russian military along with the equivalent of national guard forces and Russia’s government-affiliated mercenary group have become Russia’s main assault force, as opposed to conventional military units.”
WHO’d you believe ? Larry Johnson OR the most trustworthy sources in this FREE WORLD like BBC / ISW / UK ministry of Defense ???
And dont forget PUTIN almost dead from Cancer , Dementia , Stomach issues , Parkinson , COVID , monkeypox and Novichox
PS: This is sarcasm post in in case one’s too dull to notice
Dunno what is wrong with DRUDGE report , they become the VOICE of the establishment instead of being a news aggregator taking in multiple sources.
Years ago DRUDGE would never take links from british tabloids , nowadays all you see in DRUDGE are disinformation from UK Tabloids and the obvious shill sites like Epoch Times (CIA funded)
more and more sign of escalation by NATO , on this SMO russia have no choice but to continue the demilitarization and denazification of whole ukraine. Saving the eastern ukraine alone wont do it as the ukrops will rearm and continue shelling donbass from thei area. Total capitulation of current kiev regime is a must. The road to co existence is gone , the western nations showed their gusto in arming ukraine even if the weapons are used to kill civilians deliberately. West already shot of their load short of entering the war themselves.
as lavrov said , trust is gone , any future trust will have to be earned by the weat , and russia in no rush to retun to cordial relation with the west as there is nothing russia need from the west.
after ukraine return to peace under russia’s wings , we can expect further provocation from the russophobic baltic nations and increased NATO assets on baltics..
I think after The Ukraine becomes a non State those Baltic Nations will be next in line for denazification and DeNATOtification.
I am simply puzzled at the Ukrainian persistence of trying to retake Snake Island. It seems rather stupid given the results the first time they tried.
Thanks for all you do.
L.
It is possibly viewed, at least by Ukraine’s NATO(US) advisors, as ‘low hanging fruit’. Retaking it, regardless of cost in men and material, would be a significant PR coup. Sort of like a bloody, cut-rate, Dolittle Raid.
they need a good PR against the russkies , after their fake offensive propaganda lies cannot hold candle on real russian progress on the ground the ukrop think snake island will be a soft target , they are at least aiming for destruction of russkie’s assets on the island.
as usual this smell of british suggestion and planning
@Galearis and @ZhukovG
My 2 cents for whatever it’s worth is that Zelensky is trying to score points with the media to keep the great Wurlitzer propaganda organ humming away. “We re-took Snake Island,” We need $50 Billion and 1,000,000 weapons (sarcasm) and we’ll take back the 25% of Ukraine Russia has taken.
To use sports analogy Zelensky is looking for big shots, a 3 pointer, when he’s down by 25 points with 2 minutes left in the 4th quarter to convince the “only fans” he can still win the game and the series and avoid a 4-0 sweep.
Titanium and aluminum burn real good
A Quick Update from Andrei
https://thesaker.is/a-quick-update-from-andrei-with-a-few-notes/