Well, that’s the word from Giulia Carbonaro, who writes for Newsweek, and is quoting from an article in the Times of London by Larisa Brown, the Russians are in BIG, BIG trouble:
In an article published on Wednesday, analysts told The Times they believe Russia already burned through so much of its military strength in the past two months of war that it could be “years” before the Kremlin is able to order another such invasion of a neighboring country.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at Washington think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the British newspaper that, according to estimates, Russia might have already lost the equivalent of two years of tank production, one year’s supply of aircraft and likely several year’s worth of missile production since the beginning of the invasion on February 24.
There is that pesky word, “ESTIMATES”, cropping up again. The word “estimate” is academic speak for “Wild Ass Guess.” What a real analyst would do is identify specific geographic coordinates where the Ukrainians took out Russian tanks and then use overhead imagery to either confirm those kills or verify that there actually were tanks at that location.
These cracker jack analysts are still clinging desperately to a false narrative:
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Santa Monica-based political think tank RAND estimated that Russia had a total of some 2,700 tanks at the beginning of the war in February. Oryx estimates that Russia has so far lost 571 tanks in Ukraine, on top of 4 naval ships, 38 helicopters, 26 aircraft and hundreds of armored vehicles.
Such losses forced Russia to draw its troops back from the area surrounding Kyiv last month and redirect offensive to the Donbas region, which is now the declared target of the Russian campaign in Ukraine.
I do not want to bore regular readers of this blog but I must repeat a point I have emphasized in several articles. Two weeks into the Russian “special military operation”, a column of Russian tanks and trucks (estimated to be at least 24 miles long) was reportedly “stalled” north of Kiev. AT NO POINT DID UKRAINE’S KILLER MILITARY ATTACK THAT COLUMN AD DESTROY TANKS THAT WERE SITTING DUCKS. And how did these genius analysts explain the stalled Russian column? The arm chair generals declared it was a sign of Russian incompetence because the tanks ran out of gas. It was a logistics failure according to them.
Western intel continues to insist the Russians were beaten by a tenacious Ukrainian army and forced to retreat from Kiev. That is a fairy tale. The Russians sat in place until they had drawn a sizeable contingent of the Ukrainian army to positions surrounding Kiev and then conducted an orderly withdrawal (without suffering any fuel shortages or significant losses).
Those forces are now re-positioned in the Donbas region and are knocking the stuffing out of the Ukrainian army. There is video evidence. Here is a mass surrender of Ukrainians near Izyum:
Pro-Ukrainian reporter Anders Aslund tweeted out this buzz kill:
“The War: Ukraine has experienced setback in the past few days. A senior Ukrainian official announced yesterday that Russian troops had taken part of the Kharkiv region. Yesterday, Russia announced that it has captured the entire Kherson region. No Ukrainian advances. Not good.”
“Russia is increasing the pace of offensive in Ukraine in all directions, – Speaker of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk. Apparently, even the Armed Forces of Ukraine are tired of the lulling lies of Arestovich.”
German journalist Julian Röpcke chimed in with a similar dark view:
Here are what Russia claims is video evidence of its progress. This video shows what is left of a Ukrainian unit near Kramatorsk (WARNING, GRAPHIC IMAGES):
This footage is even more appalling in terms of the suffering of Ukrainian troops killed by the Russians:
Here is the before and after of a Ukrainian entrenched position. Note the role that the Russian drone is playing in pinpointing where to attack:
My intent is not to show gratuitous war porn. It is a terrible business. And I do not discount that this may be sophisticated Russian propaganda. I want you to see this and then compare it to what Ukraine is not posting. I have not seen similar videos posted by Ukrainian forces devastating Russian positions. Why? In the first couple of weeks of the Russian Special Military Operation, the Ukrainians posted a few such videos (several of them were staged propaganda pieces). Not now. I believe it is because the Ukrainians are not in a position to poke their heads out of their bunkers and risk getting blown into eternity. If you can come up with an alternative explanation chime in.
One final comment on the United States shipping Stingers–i.e. a shoulder fired manpad–to Ukraine. Do you understand that this is 41 year old technology. It was first introduced in 1981 and was initially intended to be used against helicopters and fixed wing aircraft landing or taking off from an airfield. Yes, it has been updated somewhat, but it is not designed to take out fixed wing aircraft of a first world military. And the Russians are a first world military. Even though almost 2000 Stingers have been sent to Ukraine, they have had negligible effect in hurting the Russians.
Appreciate your perspective. Hope those stingers aren’t sold on the black market and end up shooting down a commercial airline (unless it’s full of neocons).
Hi Mr. Johnson, thank you for your update on the situation. By the way I also visit Turcoplier website. I know the website just repeats the MSM propoganda but I try to find how the MSM is spinning this war. By the way I have commented to TTG about the issue of Ukranians not showing the Russian dead. Are you ready for his reply. Here it is ” The Ukrainians have a little more decency than to publish every dead Russian soldier they come across. I also asked him about the fate of those Azov guys stuck in Azvostal Steel mill, TTG answer was no answer “Nobody can do anything for the Azov Battalion, Marines and Border Guard defenders at Azovstal. It’s a wonder they held out this long. They’re still tying down several BTGs.” The point was if no body can do anything about them is it not the responsibility of commander in chief to ask them to surrender out of concern for his troops? If not why would any body else would choose to die for such a commander in chief? Honestly I am saddened to see our military heros have lost their basic instincts. Thanks for your update.
Re TTG there is no fixing stupid. He’s a clown.
Yep Murali, the Turcopolier blog has gone to hell in a handbasket.
The blog has been unquestioningly parroting obvious propaganda sources like the ISW and the Ukraine govt for its view on the situation.
I expected nothing less from TTG, but it has been disappointing to see PL’s downward slide into irrationality.
the old colonel must need a wad of cash for his medical bill (hip replaement) . that seem the most logical explanation why someone so hateful toward neocon warmongers suddenly turned into a bootlicker for neocon.
and TTG seem to be the real owner of SST , where the old col only used to bully people who comment against the grain , and to ban people directly like how he ban patrick armstrong and larry johnson.
safe guess the order for ban came from TTG
Or someone was threatened with tax investigation
Larry, thank you for another enlightening article.
One thing I’m very curious about is the situation in Azovstal. What is your take concerning the stories of foreign personnel, many supposedly high-rank and high-value, trapped in the complex?
The Russians have them trapped and are not going to risk getting more of their soldiers killed trying to capture them. Time is on the Russian side. Lack of food and medical care will ultimately force those holed up in the bowels of Avostal to surrender or commit suicide.
seem like the only reason they hold this long must be to protect the foreigners and strike a deal with russia for these foreigners’s safe passage as to not embarrass NATO nations
i doubt russia will let them go without trial
Thanks for this. As ever, very insightful.
As I write this, I just see that Britain is deploying 8,000 troops to Eastern Europe. That must be most of our field army.
The press is also in hysterics that a Briton serving as a volunteer in Ukraine has just been killed. I do wonder if all these “retired” soldiers in Ukraine really are “retired” by the way.
The press is also claiming that Russian assassination squads were trying to kill Zelensky at the start of this. Surely, if they wanted to do that then they would use a precision missile and quite why they would seek to do that is also unclear.
My email feed also has an Economist note that claims that Russia’s army is rotten and a chaotic failure. I used to subscribe to that once august publication but under the current editor it has turned into an unthinking mouthpiece of western ideology; and right now a vehicle for cutting and pasting Ukrainian government press releases.
If the Russian army is so bad and failing then why on earth anyone sees the need to deploy troops and send heavy weapons is beyond me. Maybe they do not really believe their own propaganda. Western legacy media is only worth looking at as a way o& learning what the latest “thing” is. Any relationship to reality seems incidental these days.
I also fear that western politicians have no exit ramp and are just moving towards never ending war.
Doesn’t this increase the chance of a hail Marry False Flag? Won’t all the exposed propaganda, as well as the completion of the SMO in Donbass blow their story to bits? I don’t think the propagandists can “survive” this. They are desperate and must have something bigger and louder to cover up their lies
I agree with you Larry. The Ukrainian military stopped publishing the video.
As for the decency of Ukrainians, this is ridiculous. They posted different videos, one could only be horrified
only a fool and a clown would say ukrainian nazi soldier have decency not showing dead russian. THat TTG person in SST is that kind of person , he posted insane amount of incredibly embarassing ‘analysis’ from british tabloids and ISW..
people in SST called him out for posting endless propaganda / IO but TTG use the regular bullies to silence the protesterd.
SST is run by TTG , The old Col sold his soul and his honor for money , that much is obvious
Hi Larry, can you comment on the attacks and possible offensive in Transnistria by Ukrainie, Moldova, Poland, Romania, US and UK.
They apparently have a huge arms storage there. Poland also appears to have designs on grabbing part of West Ukrainie.
My dad was airforce retired, he says air defence that close to border may be too tough as British have set up lines of patriot defense systems on border.
The Russians only have 2k ish troops there apparently. Missiles can only do so much if it’s a big attack.
“My intent is not to show gratuitous war porn. It is a terrible business.”
As I’ve said several times, and will repeat here, I feel sorry for the regular Ukrainian troops (not the Azov and assorted other thugs, for whom I feel zero sympathy). They got egged on and gulled into a hopeless fight. It truly is a terrible business. Now Biden wants $33 BILLION dollars more for this mess. Why doesn’t he just get it over with and ask for a trillion? Another trillion to go with Afghanistan and Iraq.
“And I do not discount that this may be sophisticated Russian propaganda.”
Could be, but I think not. The Russians have been pretty tight-lipped about this so far. It’s a crazy world where I trust what they say over what comes out of our State & Defense Departments, but there you are. If anything, it’s probably worse for the Ukrainians than the Russians are letting on.
One of the better Twitter analysts says that if Izyum “falls” to the Russians (he’s pro-Ukrainian, but fact-based), it’s game over for Ukraine. I know nothing of military matters. Would you explain his reasoning?
Oh, God read this & weep. We are updating pre-WW2 legislation to arm Ukraine to the teeth. Who the hell knows where this money will go? It’s a never-ending rathole. But that’s not even the most important part. The important part is the war fever in Congress. This is dangerous.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/story/2022-04-28/house-passes-military-lend-lease-bill-to-speed-ukraine-aid
This is beyond insane. There are no operational units of the AFU to even receive the equipment much less use it.
The Russians will just drop a Khinzal on it the second it crosses the border!
The Ukrainian mafia is likely to end up with the bulk of it anyway, it will all be sold on the black market.
These people here have excrement for brains.
This makes absolutely no sense unless there is something so big, some monumental secret hidden in Ukraine that the Bidenistas et al are desperate to keep hidden and they are blackmailing the rest of the world to help them cover it up.
We can speculate what it might be, but my guess is the Russians probably already know what it is and have the evidence. In my view this is the only explanation, the neocons are another matter. They just want war no matter what and don’t care.
“excrement for brains”
Excrement has good use when used for fertilizer. I can’t think what use our political class has.
“And I do not discount that this may be sophisticated Russian propaganda.”
I thought about that again. All info in war is propaganda – so yes, this is propaganda. But there’s a difference between pure BS and info that’s true and is used by a warring side. I think this is the latter. I would not want to be a Ukrainian soldier in the Donbass now.
I think it is fair to ask with all these $billions going to Ukraine, if 10% is earmarked to go to The Big Guy
Just a few bullet point observations and commentary:
– THE TIMES..”that it could be ‘years’ before the Kremlin is able to order another such invasion of a neighboring country”…I don’ get the point of this statement, does that mean NATO countries can just go back to business as usual because Russia is no longer a military threat…I guess NATO can redeploy all of it troops back home then…I’m OK with that I guess
– A long long time ago when man discovered war he also discovered that no wars (or special military operations) are won in the defense…anybody heard of any Ukrainian offensives lately (or ever)
– Stinger MANPADs great…they will end up on the black market like a lot of the NATO supplied equipment or maybe even captured by Russian forces…I think NATO planners must have recently watched “Charlie Wilson’s War” and brilliantly deducted that Stingers had an impact during the Afghan-Russian War in the 80’s so they will be sure to bring Russia to its knees again 50 years later…brilliant just brilliant
– Speaking of NATO supplied equipment…having cool shiny things is great and all but if you do not have trained crews or soldiers to use it, you may as well blow it up or turn it over the Russians…for example, a tank crew takes months to train and master gunnery…it’s not like you can slap an 18 year old conscript into a T-72 and say “go get em”…I have to believe the Ukraine is in real short supply of trained crews or experienced professional soldiers right about now
– Lastly, history will tell the tale on this conflict…my money is still on Russia even if NATO escalates (more)
Read on Twitter: Most of the $$ the US is donating to Ukraine to fight Russia is actually going to American mercenaries.
No proof but makes total sense to me.
The merc presence is waay bigger than has been reported on. The young American killed today was working for a merc.
🙂 here is another estimate
So far the Russian Army has used for its special military operation in #Ukraine:
_ 12% of its soldiers (total includes trained draftees)
_ 10% of its fighter jets
_ 7% of its tanks
_ 5% of its missiles
_ 4% of its artillery
And keeps advancing on a daily basis
https://twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1519260179636064256
All these weapons are about creating an illusion both in West and amongst Ukrainians that it is too soon to give up. Actually it is 2 months late already.
Given that TTG believes the Azov guys in Azvestol steel factory have performed heroically and that they are still that way given they are tying up several Russian BTG’s by not surrendering and by their own admission they have 600 wounded who cannot be treated due to lack of medicine and trained medical personnel and have only 7 days of food left,
what should they do:
Become cannibals?
Commit mass suicide?
Or, what?
Ordering them not to surrender is criminal, possibly a war crime.
Why would anyone just allow themselves to die in agony, sepsis, starvation or thirst for no purpose?
The Azov bunch must thing they are toast if the Russians get their hands on them but why condemn the rest?
Are the rumored Nato people in the Azovstal basement so vitally important that it is better they die than be captured?
Sure the Russians will parade them around but dumbasses in the west won’t even see it.
This whole thing makes absolutely no sense?
What the frack is really going on here?
Thanks, Larry, a fine essay about the current reality.
Just a thought: There has been a lot of mention of Poland grabbing parts of Western Ukraine and I suspect that Russia may have qualms about allowing this. If it happens Poland could be ordered to agree that no nukes be sent to Russia’s border. How does Russia avoid another “Polish Ukraine” NATO situation that mirrors the present situation? I suspect (as does Russia) that the Poles are not agreement capable either.
Best,…
L.
funny the so called western analysts and press and Useful idiots regard ORYX osint as truth teller when their claims of russian tank destroyed were revealed as fakery by many on tweeter.
all OSINT are IO designed to complement the MSM propaganda and pretending to be ‘legitimate’ source , and weak minded sheep / people truly believe in these propaganda sites..
speak volumes on the mindset of western sheeps.. how these sheep just follow the govt and parroting the propaganda without engaging their own brain
Regarding the US/UK/NATO/EU war on Russia (not going so well for the “West” in its opening “Ukrainian” phase) I seem to recall Scott Ritter in one of his many video interviews using the term “gone gopher” to describe the Ukrainian military strategy in the Donbas region of (formerly) Eastern Ukraine. Thinking this over last night as I often do when sleep won’t happen, the following arrangement of syllables occurred to me:
Genius Gopher “War” planning
The Nazi American Terrorist Op –
or, NATO: an acronym standing for “flop” –
has started a war and refuses to stop
till few can distinguish the crook from the cop.
So dig some more trenches and live in the slop
till orders arrive to go “Over the top!”
Then charge across steppes in the open, “Chop Chop!”
as men all around you catch bullets and drop.
From dragon’s teeth sown, Death will harvest His crop.
Your NATO instructor (his “doctrine” hidebound)
has taught you a thing guaranteed to astound:
Wage war from a bunker: a burial mound,
then wait for some “help” from the “West” to come round.
But quickly you witness your aircraft all downed;
and what you imagined your “navy” is drowned;
then you a red vapor, no trace ever found.
Eternity now. Absent all light and sound.
“Gone Gopher” like George Custer’s “take the low ground!”
Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright © 2022
I applaud your creativity. You are an aspiring Lord Tennyson.
More like fractured Kipling and not half-bad.
“I don’t know half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.” — Bilbo Baggins
Larry wrote:
There is that pesky word, “ESTIMATES”, cropping up again. The word “estimate” is academic speak for “Wild Ass Guess.”
Which prompts me — a veteran of the Nixon-Kissinger Fig Leaf Contingent (Vietnam 1970-72) — to rephrase that observation as:
“Intelligence” à la carte
The two-faced puppet show called “government”
has outsourced its “intelligence” to those
who offer up themselves for sale or rent
in open “secrecy.” That makes them foes
of public purpose. Still, the billions spent
explains their slogan: “That’s the way it goes.”
Our spooks “assess,” they say, as if they’ve weighed
the consequences of their War For Wealth,
assuming, as they do, the costs defrayed
by others while they profit from pure stealth.
The poor find force against their class arrayed
while those in power drink each other’s health.
The pompous frauds speak noises like “assess”
when what they really mean is “wild-ass guess.”
Michael Murry, “The Misfortune Teller,” Copyright © 2022
Apologies for being a bit off-topic (though not totally).
Does anyone have any thoughts concerning Pelosi’s alleged visit in the past couple of days to Kiev to meet w/ Zelensky?
How did she get in and out safely? What was so important that it required such a huge risk for such an old frail woman? Discuss what? The skim from the $33 Billion in US aid? For sure, but what else?
Is Zelensky even really Kiev? Alternatively, the Russians don’t have control of the skies and have not destroyed railroads in most of the country (it is said Pelosi got there by flying into Poland and taking a train to Kiev).
There is something incredible about this story, to my mind at least, and it’s bothering me much more than the typical MSM nonsense usually does. Just something about this that is striking me as both fishy and ominous at some deep level and I can’t put my finger on it.
have obtained the answer to my own question…..it seems there is a diplomatic corridor between Poland and Kiev that Russia recognizes.