In an article published on Wednesday, analysts told The Times they believe Russia already burned through so much of its military strength in the past two months of war that it could be “years” before the Kremlin is able to order another such invasion of a neighboring country.
Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at Washington think-tank Center for Strategic and International Studies, told the British newspaper that, according to estimates, Russia might have already lost the equivalent of two years of tank production, one year’s supply of aircraft and likely several year’s worth of missile production since the beginning of the invasion on February 24.
There is that pesky word, “ESTIMATES”, cropping up again. The word “estimate” is academic speak for “Wild Ass Guess.” What a real analyst would do is identify specific geographic coordinates where the Ukrainians took out Russian tanks and then use overhead imagery to either confirm those kills or verify that there actually were tanks at that location.
These cracker jack analysts are still clinging desperately to a false narrative:
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and Santa Monica-based political think tank RAND estimated that Russia had a total of some 2,700 tanks at the beginning of the war in February. Oryx estimates that Russia has so far lost 571 tanks in Ukraine, on top of 4 naval ships, 38 helicopters, 26 aircraft and hundreds of armored vehicles.
Such losses forced Russia to draw its troops back from the area surrounding Kyiv last month and redirect offensive to the Donbas region, which is now the declared target of the Russian campaign in Ukraine.
I do not want to bore regular readers of this blog but I must repeat a point I have emphasized in several articles. Two weeks into the Russian “special military operation”, a column of Russian tanks and trucks (estimated to be at least 24 miles long) was reportedly “stalled” north of Kiev. AT NO POINT DID UKRAINE’S KILLER MILITARY ATTACK THAT COLUMN AD DESTROY TANKS THAT WERE SITTING DUCKS. And how did these genius analysts explain the stalled Russian column? The arm chair generals declared it was a sign of Russian incompetence because the tanks ran out of gas. It was a logistics failure according to them.
Western intel continues to insist the Russians were beaten by a tenacious Ukrainian army and forced to retreat from Kiev. That is a fairy tale. The Russians sat in place until they had drawn a sizeable contingent of the Ukrainian army to positions surrounding Kiev and then conducted an orderly withdrawal (without suffering any fuel shortages or significant losses).
Those forces are now re-positioned in the Donbas region and are knocking the stuffing out of the Ukrainian army. There is video evidence. Here is a mass surrender of Ukrainians near Izyum:
Pro-Ukrainian reporter Anders Aslund tweeted out this buzz kill:
“The War: Ukraine has experienced setback in the past few days. A senior Ukrainian official announced yesterday that Russian troops had taken part of the Kharkiv region. Yesterday, Russia announced that it has captured the entire Kherson region. No Ukrainian advances. Not good.”
“Russia is increasing the pace of offensive in Ukraine in all directions, – Speaker of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk. Apparently, even the Armed Forces of Ukraine are tired of the lulling lies of Arestovich.”
German journalist Julian Röpcke chimed in with a similar dark view:
Here are what Russia claims is video evidence of its progress. This video shows what is left of a Ukrainian unit near Kramatorsk (WARNING, GRAPHIC IMAGES):
This footage is even more appalling in terms of the suffering of Ukrainian troops killed by the Russians:
Here is the before and after of a Ukrainian entrenched position. Note the role that the Russian drone is playing in pinpointing where to attack:
My intent is not to show gratuitous war porn. It is a terrible business. And I do not discount that this may be sophisticated Russian propaganda. I want you to see this and then compare it to what Ukraine is not posting. I have not seen similar videos posted by Ukrainian forces devastating Russian positions. Why? In the first couple of weeks of the Russian Special Military Operation, the Ukrainians posted a few such videos (several of them were staged propaganda pieces). Not now. I believe it is because the Ukrainians are not in a position to poke their heads out of their bunkers and risk getting blown into eternity. If you can come up with an alternative explanation chime in.
One final comment on the United States shipping Stingers–i.e. a shoulder fired manpad–to Ukraine. Do you understand that this is 41 year old technology. It was first introduced in 1981 and was initially intended to be used against helicopters and fixed wing aircraft landing or taking off from an airfield. Yes, it has been updated somewhat, but it is not designed to take out fixed wing aircraft of a first world military. And the Russians are a first world military. Even though almost 2000 Stingers have been sent to Ukraine, they have had negligible effect in hurting the Russians.