The Western media treats the war in Ukraine in isolation but the truth is that it is just one battlefield in a world war. Russia knows it – “The US wants to weaken and destroy Russia, and is using Ukraine as a ‘battering ram‘”; America too – “Russia’s invasion tears at the rules-based international order that keeps us all secure” (translation from Newspeak – “threatens our predominance”.) The US-centric system is fighting across the world to maintain its superiority.
And how is that wider war going? For the US and its allies – the self-anointed “International Community” – the answer is not very well. Their assumption that sanctions would collapse the Russian economy and overthrow Putin has backfired – Worst fall in UK living standards, European power prices shatter records, Inflation boosts U.S. household spending. Plenty more headlines like those. Even that citadel of Russophobia The Economist has to admit “As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out“.
Did they think, when they sanctioned the world’s largest energy exporter and two of the principal potash exporters, that fuel and food prices would go down?
Allied unity is shaky. Ankara has effectively blamed the USA for the recent terror attacks and is openly attacking US allies in Syria. Poland’s President admits “I don’t need a war with Russia“. Zelinsky’s insistence that a Russian missile hit Poland when everyone knows it didn’t, is “destroying [our] confidence in them“. Europeans start to understand that Washington played them for fools. How many European manufacturers are moving to the USA? Who blew up Nordstream? A mystery too secret to answer (but it wasn’t Russia). Western economies will not get better, winter is “weaponized”, inflation, unemployment and dissatisfaction will grow.
A year after he invaded the USSR, Hitler invited himself to Marshal Mannerheim’s birthday party. The Finns bugged the railroad car and caught Hitler admitting that German weapons were only fit for “good weather”. We see the same thing in Ukraine – NATO’s weaponry is delicate; previous “wonder weapons” like Javelin are disappointing; air defense doesn’t stop missiles. In fact the only “wonder weapon” with much effect is the HIMARS but its warheads are small and the latest “deliveries” haven’t even been built.
NATO weapons production is also “good weather”. A heavy artillery day in Afghanistan was 300 rounds and for that US production of roughly 80,000 155mm rounds a year was plenty. But Ukraine is reportedly firing 20 times as many per day and Russia seven times that. One of the few prescient pieces published by the establishment press was “The Return of Industrial Warfare” in June. That pointed out what is now apparent to all – NATO does not have the production to keep up with demand. Brian Berletic has been keeping track of the diminishing quantity and quality of weaponry sent from America. This can be best exemplified by the 60 year old HAWK air defence system just sent. 50 year old Gepards. “Upgraded” (20 years ago) T-55 tanks. No more 155mm guns, now 105mm guns. Even the tame media is worried – “Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles“, “U.S. and NATO Scramble to Arm Ukraine and Refill Their Own Arsenals.” There are plans to increase production but that’s years away.
One of Moscow’s aims is to demilitarize Ukraine; never in its wildest dreams could it have foreseen that it would demilitarize NATO too. Boasting “How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion…?” misses the point – guns fire shells, not engraved paper.
And more. The West loves to call itself the “international community” but even the establishment has to admit that most of the world does not agree. Look at the lineup of countries wanting to get into BRICS or the SCO. How enthusiastic will cold unemployed Europeans be when another couple of million Ukrainians arrive expecting to be put up in hotels? There are protests all the time all over Europe – how long can they be ignored? Is Europe really “heading to the Middle Ages“? How many people will die from cold? More and more countries are moving away from the US dollar – what happens when it’s just another national currency like dozens of others? What happens after the last elderly weapon is dug out of the last storage bin and shipped? Where is Plan B?
They were so certain that the Ruble would become rubble that they didn’t bother with Plan B. All there is is more fluff and yelling louder –”Sanctions have weakened Russia and sowed doubts about Putin’s leadership. More pressure is needed to bring an end to the war.”
True, but the pressure is not on Russia. Russia can wait – time is on its side in the big war.
Cato the Uncensored says
Plan B is to false flag and let loose the nukes of war.
Rus Ivan)) says
the use of a nuclear arsenal against Russia is unjustified – Russia has something to answer.
Rather, it will be a biological weapon, this is quite consistent with the macro scenario.
The weapons that can be used against us to some extent effectively are propaganda, bio- and chemical.
Earlier, I thought that we had nothing to answer the West for the economic war)) We’ll survive, we’ll manage …
The corona virus scamdemic has shown beyond doubt that biological attacks have plausible deniability. Very hard to prove, especially when the narrative is controlled by the attackers.
Tom Welsh says
Why prove when you can just retaliate?
Hereward the Woke says
Exactly. The Russian intelligence services are second to none. They’ll know if the West is targetting them with bioweapons.
About bio/chemical weapons:
“And advanced forms of biological warfare that can “target” specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool.”
(REBUILDING AMERICA’S DEFENSES: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century, A Report of The Project for the New American Century, September 2000)
Talk tonight from RU mod about an imminent ‘fake’ chemical attack in Donbass(as usual when they lose, see Syria).US UK scenario not very original.
Remember, Russia has more nukes – and the best AD in the world. Even a fool doesn’t fight that guy.
It doesn’t pay to underestimate the foolishness of a fool in their folly. The fool, by definition, fails to comprehend that their folly is foolish.
In the West, so many leaders appear to be fools, their policies foolishness, the outcomes folly. One only needs to look at the performance of the Anglosphere and EU since 2020 to see foolish policies of epic dimensions destroying our economies, culture and societies.
They’ve already picked a fight with the guy with nukes. One wonders, what will be the source of escalation and when will it occur. It’s no different to a bar fight or a street fight. It starts off verbal, then something happens, and the punches start flying. We’re at the verbal stage. Short of a grown-up to calm things down, it’s but a matter of time til the real fighting starts.
those with the “skill” are taught two things:
a) stay out of fights
or if you can’t a)
b) finish fights quickly and violently so bar jock mates think twice about joining in.
A couple of years ago I would have pooh-poohed bio-weapons targeting genotypes as a great idea for a sci-fi novel (I considered writing one!) but farfetched in reality. Not anymore. The Ukrainian bio-labs indicated that a lot of R&D is being done that could result in just such weapons, even if the current R&D is not targeting that. There are those who believe that COVID19 escaped from a US biolab. Nobody knows, of course. But the theory is as plausible as any other. The danger with such weapons is that once “in the wild”– which is not “wild” but societal– everybody suffers.
Trouble with trying to finish the fight “quickly and violently” is you lose as often as you win, if the other guy is thinking the same thing and if he is a competitive fighter. Better to a.) assess the situation for weapons, environment, and your opponents’ allies, if any b.) step out of range to assess his skill set and tactics c.) don’t try to compete with his skill set. Don’t try to box against a boxer. Don’t kick against a kicker. If he has a knife — run! (or get a sword). The UAF was bigger, well-equipped and ready. It had a knife and attitude. The RF had a sword — and it used it carefully and still does.
Brilliant comment, OneAngryAussie. That is really it!
am not worried about nuclear war. just another way to scare us while the below just accelerates. definitely want to live somewhere with a good sheriff who will not put with the below.
this is what concerns me – total lawlessness
This is called a “failed state”.
We only ever see it elsewhere, in the “Third World”.
The former so-called Eastern bloc has experienced it, albeit in a more or less mitigated form – for various reasons …
Who understands “freedom” only as absence of “compulsion” or “duty” gets exactly that.
Those who do not see that freedom presupposes order – i.e. the opposite of freedom – and see the so-called “open society” instead of the “nation-state” as a viable concept of civilization, should not complain.
What may need to be explained again and again:
There are no “absolute rights.” Every right exists only in a legal order, carried in front of a legal community, which recognizes the same and is willing and able to preserve and enforce the same.
A legal order neglects, when the institution “state” degenerates to a “representation of interests”, is “privatized”, replaced by the rule of NGOs.
At the international level, this story is even more problematic – there we have no “super-state”.
The global economy rests on one very important pillar – that every title to property, every title to wealth is recognized and protected in every state, regardless of the national legal system in which the title or the holder of the title is rooted.
Russian oligarchs are currently experiencing, what can happen, if there is no state that recognizes their wealth, the property that was originally assigned to them by right …
Against this background the seizure of the Russian state’s assets is a disaster for the West.
Admittedly, the West has been quite “relaxed” about this before, because it could – the “rule-based order” that is.
Only now it is messing with an economic heavyweight that is fighting back … and that has consequences that seem to be turning into an earthquake …
The really fascinating thing is this unbelievable, irrational arrogance, which is probably rooted in these almost 500 years of European success and expansion history – basically now seems self-destructive …
When did we Americans turn into a bunch of pussies? AFAIK you can use deadly force to protect your store in Oregon. Why did this guy give up?
A dozen years ago I read an account from a young woman who had lived in Russia for a number of years before returning to the Great Satan. She had had Russian boyfriends and reported that if bothered on the street the Russian boyfriend would quickly take the culprit to task while her American counterparts would quicken their step in a different direction.
In the 80s there was a billboard in downtown Cheyenne that said (quite rightly), Wyoming is what America was. We may paraphrase that to, Russia is what America was.
The root change in beginning a civilization is the retention of juvenile traits. As the civilization becomes more complex the needs of the system demand further mature traits be eliminated. This is how the ten thousand year experiment has functioned. The incipient technocracy absolutely has to have children as subjects because mature persons will not swallow the dehumanization. Technocracy is the great end game because the adults will have all left the room.
One sarmat missile can wipe Texas off the map.
Manuel-Jesús Iglesias Valiejo says
Rusia ganará la guerra y la OTAN desaparecerá. La degradación de lUE y EEUU ws cada día más evidente.
Posted on Jim Richards twitter
RU will invoke Kursk 1943
As much as I dislike American capitalism, I will say the following: Folks, get your savings in order. In a year, a few thousand $$$ will buy you the nicest beach property in Portugal, Italy or Spain. Together with butlers, servants etc. Maybe even a German girlfriend, should you want one – she will probably come with a PhD or an engineering degree but nowhere to use it except your kitchen, fixing that Chinese or Turkish fridge.
Now, you will only have a small window of opportunity to do this before the USD becomes worthless. Make sure to plan on opening an account in Moscow and keep all you have in gold and rubles.
When in Rome….
Slovan Rudolf Maister says
When in Rome…. Stay in Rome.
Good luck with that !
I always wondered why there is a prohibition on ‘common’ US citizens owning Rubles. Now it’s evident.
Robert Hahl says
Ahh, to be seventy again.
Fulano de Tal says
You/they can stay where you/they are. We have already enough stupids in Europe.
(C’mon, USA is the best country in the world, isn’t it? Why anybody would leave heaven on Earth, to come to 3rd world places, when they even have no trump idea where they are??? Who can emigrate to a place he doesn’t know? Americans only know Paris …)
You are a disgusting guy, Oddo.
What a total lack of respect. I don’t know who do you think you are …
Finally, comments on the ‘Human Rights Industries’ run by the West and applied by Israel. as Joe would say, Er, bbbb… sh….I mean ahahahaha Ah forget it’.
Yes indeed, we have bombs, missiles, submarines, aircraft, carrier fleets, hand guns, ammunition, the hypersonic and supersonics, HIMARS, land minds (great for blowing legs off children at play), defense systems, hand grenades (the “law makers” favourite), etc., and trillions of dollars /shekels for the lords of war (‘elite leadership’) to stuff into their mattresses and Bank Accounts. No longer are they termed “Law Makers” but now, proudly carry the title of Office, ‘MP., “Merchant of Death”‘.
Indeed as the POTUS (Bibi) casts his eyes around to dispense his endless generosity of human destruction, misery, suffering, death and the flows of blood (“God Bless America”) and to protect from his enemies, it appears that the most attractive targets are children – and defenseless others that do not / cannot fire back. Can’t have these urchins having a gun as that would be breaking the law.
So as we enjoy this wonderful era of peace and prosperity our only concern really is to give birth to enough children to keep the US State Department and the Pentagon in under-the-table cash (without transparency) and the inside trading market of the US Congress, in a state of a sustainable profit by kill/birth ratio based on sex and marriage. A win win situation.
And let’s not forget those Palestinians those blessed targets upon whom / which we get to test and show and new technologies: You can even get free lunch and free kills with every order of more than USD1Million. No problem; they are only children. Pay to Play options available at the front desk.
Oh the Joy.
Michael Droy says
If this was meant to destroy Russia then sure it was a terribly planned idea which went completely wrong.
If though this was meant to cut Europe off from trading with Russia or China ever again it has worked out pretty well, and perhaps the US wasn’t so stupid after all.
(at least the European analysis worked out well, Rest of World has turned completely anti-US and is in a great rush to set up alternative structures so that they can tell US where to go too).
Lou Brooks says
The problem with that is the U.S. does not have the manufacturing capability to support Europe. Nor can the U.S. supply sufficient amounts of inexpensive oil or LPG to Europe. At some point, as the Euro industrial might falls to its knees, it will look to Russia in an attempt to make amends.
I think the West thought they would make big profits off of Euro short term while Russia fell flat on its face and broke up into something the West could manage and rape. Then Europe would benefit from the plundered resources of Russia. Turns out that Russia is strong and growing and it is Europe that has fallen flat on its face, being raped by the U.S.
Some EU ‘secrets’..of course the EU lies and continues to buy RU gas(natgaz).
Also real ukies losses: 500.000 (kia, mia, wia)
Robert Garnett says
The US may not manufacture sophisticated consumer goods at the moment, but once German Industry moves there they will.
It not because of lack of talent. It’s just too expensive to manufacturer. This is why talent doesn’t go into manufacturing . They prefer financial, law and IT.
More germans will mean more technical people looking for jobs . Nothing more nothing less. After initial euphoria of setting up plants in US dies same economic issues will pop up.
That is considering germans will leave their free health and pensions to risk a couple of years of jobs in US.
They would rather moon light in East Asia for Chinese directly or in directly. They can save and keep their health care in Germany and still keep their pensions.
In case you don’t know it’s the story which the east has seen fir hundreds of years it’s just reversing now.
Fulano de Tal says
Mmm .. how does it work?
In Europe we don’t have money to buy energy to produce goods.
European (german) industry moves to USA .. and magically we have money to buy things produced in the USA by that industry?
I guess it is much more complicated.
Jim S says
IF Globalists are relocating industry to China
AND German industry is forced to relocate from Germany
THEN German industry will relocate to China
THEREFORE China is the chief beneficiary of Nordstream I sabotage
(I realize manufacturing contracts are fleeing China for other Asian countries right now, but 1. I think it’s funny, and 2. prevailing US policies–including renewable energy and ESG–are discouraging to most industry.)
Mickey Droy says
Absolutely – China wins whatever happens.
Curt Nichols says
Excellent article my friend. And Russia is preparing for the largest missile strike yet. I am hearing 300 missiles this time. Pretty good for a gas station with nukes that ran out of munitions in April. And this is against the backdrop of Macron telling Ukraine no more. The Pentagon laughing when they ask for the antiquated Patriot. And Germany just staring into the abyss of their doom. The longer it goes on, the deeper the Russian win. And people are waking up. Europe is understanding that the USA destroyed their economic future for the “Game of Thrones” fantasy. The Taiwanese just had an election where they roundly defeated the USA financed “War on China” party. I can’t believe the Taiwanese don’t want to be the next charnel ground of US foreign policy!
Thanks love coming by to get the truth.
The US War in Ukraine & the Neocons.
The Neocons now in charge of US Foreign Policy are driven, not by reason, but by their passions – especially their hatred of Russia.
Blinded by those passions, absent the guiding light of reason, they are unable to see the wood (strategy) for the trees (tactics).
As a result, they stumble from one policy disaster to the next.
In the pungent words of ordinary folk… the Neocons wouldn’t recognise a strategy if it bit them in the arse…
It seems Russia is successfully switching to LNG, and Europe is only too happy to buy it:
Every time media and govt use the phrase “rules-based international order” you’re being gaslit with propaganda. What they mean is, “might makes right,” and “do as I say, not as I do.”
Cato the Uncensored says
Every time media and govt use the phrase “rules-based international order” take a drink of vodka. You’ll pass out and sleep through WW3.
As the World Churns says
Project for the New American Century.
There’s your ‘rules-based international order’.
‘Full-spectrum dominance’ – the neocon’s wet dream, destined to turn into America’s nightmare.
Slovan Rudolf Maister says
I`m from EU country named Slovenia. We have more than 56% of citizens supporting RF and less than 32% of west backed supporters. Now,we had parliamentary electinons back in 24th of April 2002. Center left and Left parties won with majority. Did this change anything regarding politics towards Russia? Not a damn thing. Its just like a 2 party system in USA. But guess who are main opposition to our so called Democratic Parliament.
SNS a Far right party and Levica (The Left party). Center right and Center Left are all in for Ukrop support.
Correction.. the right date is 24th April 2022
And my fellow countryman is correct.
The current ruling coalition (left) ruling this sandbox are in line with with the eu elites. (For as long as the money flows)
There are two sides with an umbarella of players in the politics of this country and both sides are bought off.
Slovan Rudolf Maister says
Yes thank you for correnting me. Pozdrav iz Celja.
Salut iz škofje loke
Premalo nas je k razmišljamo s svojo glavo…
Pozdrav obojici od Dalmatinca koji živi, radi (i “boji se gladi”, da uvedemo malo i rime) 😉 u Milanu.
I drago mi je vidjeti taj podatak (koliko god bio približan) o raspoloženju stanovništva kod Vas.
Macedonian Prince says
I am of Macedonian heritage. (Greetings, brat!). It has been my observation that although the government may be wanting to play favors with the west, the average Macedonian on the street supports Russia. That doesn’t surprise me very much, but Slovenia, being Catholic, does pleasantly surprise me a little bit.
I’ve always had this theory that our divisions between Orthodoxy and Roman Catholicism weren’t all that great. It was just outside powers exploiting them for game. Divide and conquer.
How long till Albainians take full control of you?
Curious George says
What was the final conclusion to that Tetovo University hotspot 20 yrs ago?
Strange how some events stick in your mind as some sort of natural progression of events bound by a common thread.
As a Catholic who supports Russia, I appreciate your comment more than I can say. I have run into so much noxious anti-Catholicism by some Orthodox on the internet, particularly at The Saker, a site I used to read daily, but now can hardly stand to even look at because of the fierce, nasty, ugly anti-Catholicism on the part of the host and many of the commenters.
Russia has so few friends in America that those of us in America who support Russia really should stick together, not fracture ourselves along religious lines!
Fulano de Tal says
I’m from Spain.
Very similar situation here in Spain regarding political parties:
the “center left” (main party in the ruling gov) is a total total NATO party.
The difference in Spain vs Slovenia: only the left party is against NATO.
The far right party is also total pro NATO.
Regarding people … I cannot say figures, but considering the long time brainwashing we have undergone here for decades … I find it quite schizophrenic: many people are aware that our politicians are following USA orders and damaging us this way .. Never mind, when the elections come, they vote for those USA lackays again ..
Slovan Rudolf Maister says
An article from INSIDER.COM . A Slovenian patriotic site.
Yeah, Right says
…”Boasting “How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion…?” misses the point”…
Indeed true. It misses the point in two ways:
a) The Russians do not spend a single, solitary US dollar in defense spending
b) What matters in a shooting war is military PRODUCTION, not military SPENDING.
On both counts the comparison is not as favorable to the West as we are led to believe. Not even close.
And, let’s face it, if the Russians can out-produce NATO then what is China capable of doing? It can probably outproduce the rest of the world combined.
China … “can probably outproduce the rest of the world combined.”
This is no exaggeration. Every year, China pours more concrete, and bends far more steel, than the rest of the world combined.
And that’s just for starters. People really should take a look into what China is up to, and stop focusing on the noise and the nonsense, because what they’re up to, has NO HISTORICAL PARALLELS!.
China is moving toward a Jetson’s like existence, and at China speed, they just might get there before this half-century is out, while my country, who for some inexplicable reason, still believes it is number one, crumbles into irrelevance.
We now have homeless people practically camping out on the White House lawn. No joke.
In fact, if Biden were a decent man, he would let them.
There is no such thing as homelessness in China (or in Russia for that matter. Bully for you too, Rooskies!), and there never will be, because such a thing would be a national f*cking embarrasment.
But, as I’ve been saying most of my adult life, you can’t really blame my dearly departed country for anything, as it was systematically privatized out of existence years ago, and as a consequence, is no longer with us.
Yeah, Right says
Just to reinforce what MAX424 has said, here is a list of the 10 longest bridges in the world:
Seven of them are in China, and every single one of them was built post-2000.
Every. Single. One.
There is just one USA bridge in that list: Lake Pontchartrain Causeway, which was completed in….. 1956.
One country is an industrial juggernaut. One is a tired, wheezy old goffer.
It ain’t hard to tell which one is which.
Like those old heavyweight champions who keep on fighting past their prime. Human folly is immeasurable. It’s a feature not a bug.
the blame-e says
We really need to be careful. And we are not being careful.
When commenting about China with our western bias we forget that China is a closed system. Everything coming out of China is filtered through the CCP first.
The fact is we don’t know what is going on in China.
I was on Google Street view last night. I was just curious about the place eBay said my package was coming from and started looking around. It was one of the provinces immediately to the northwest of Hong Kong. They had nice new buildings, but there wasn’t a lot of curb appeal. It still looked like a crappy place to live.
Andrei L says
I’m sorry, but you are wrong about homeless in Russia. They exist. This problem became less severe since 90’s, but it still is not gone. We call these people “bomzh” (“бомж”), which is an abbreviation from the police protocols “a person without established place of living”. See this recent news article for example https://www.interfax.ru/russia/852089 (google translations is quite decent).
On the other hand, life expectancy of homeless in Russia is very short. Many will not survive winter. This is not like a January in New York with temperature around 0C. In my city we have good weather today with -7C (19F), yesterday it was -15C (5F), also with pleasant sunshine. And it is only December. But for homeless it’s over very soon unless they find a shelter. These deaths are embarassement in itself.
I stand corrected.
Thanks for the report and the link.
Brian O. says
Is it possible that providing weapons to terrorists with anonymity and impunity is #4 on the list of goals of the west? But then that wouldn’t benefit Eu nations because the weapons are already stacking up there. Cui bono? Are they moving east to Georgia or other stans, south, north?
A very profound demonstration since February was the Russian planning and logistics that ranks up with some of the best in history. We see one of the oldest forms of modern human combat. Firing projectiles is as important as it was 300 years ago. Why did one party understand this and the other ignore it? 155 rounds must encompass a great deal of Russia industry. Or would it be no normal for the Russians and the western nations to have proper stockpiles? The nations of the west have been involved with more fighting than Russia for decades. Why wouldn’t they be prepared if this is what they had planned?
The west seems to have been caught by complete surprise and asleep at the switch.
We know there is a lot of money/weapon laundries that help out our starving lobbyists for the needed kickbacks but wow.
“Our boys don’t have enough stuff” said General Practices to the reporter. “General, they aren’t our boys”.
“The nations of the west have been involved with more fighting than Russia for decades. Why wouldn’t they be prepared if this is what they had planned?”
Well they didn’t plan for it. They expected Russia to emulate what USA did in Iraq and to succeed at it; and most of the training and preps provided in advance were for an insurgent resistance. Also, while it’s almost certain a significant percentage of the disappeared weapons have been stolen, a good bit may still be getting stashed for this contingency.
“One of Moscow’s aims is to demilitarize Ukraine; never in its wildest dreams could it have foreseen that it would demilitarize NATO too.”
As a student of the Michael Hudson school, which believes that the west has forced Putin, against his will, to give up his dreams of becoming a treasured “partner” and “colleague” of the neo-liberal globalists, and instead must be content with focusing his considerable energies on mundane crap like autarky, nation-state self-suffiency, and governing for the Russian people (all of them? Dammit, this is not what I signed up for!), his painfully slow SMO has had the unique counter-effect of forcing the Ukraine Army to heedlessly – and continuously – march straight into the Russian guns where they can be annihilated piecemeal and on the cheap.
And by on the cheap, I mean the old fashioned way, with 20th century artillery barrages. If Russians have used their expensive hypersonic missiles only twice in this war so far, then their super special and deadly Tos 1 thermobarics – and other similar type hyper-advanced MLRS systems – have been almost as infrequent a contributer to the overall destruction of this enemy.
And let’s not even get into the Russian Air Force, which seems content up until this point, to sit on the sidelines and play the role of a forgotten relic of a bygone era.
Why are the bridges over the Dnieper still intact 9 months into this conflict? Not because the Russians are poosyfooting neo-liberal fools, hoping against hope, even at this late date, for a negiotated settlement, but to better facilitate Nato movements of proxy forces and their equipment toward the contact line! And obliteration!
I hate to say it, but I sometime feel like the Russians bumbled their way into a war winning strategy! And by war winning, I mean the Russians are being forced to de-Nazify and de-militarize Ukraine (and possibly much of western world as well), which was CLEARLY not their intention in the beginning, and anyone who believes otherwise, was not with us back in April, when the Russian Federation was more than content to sign on the dotted line and get the hell out of Ukraine, without accomplishing much of anything.
Michael Hudson got this right 6 or 7 years ago, when he pointed that the Russian Federation can become the richest civilization that ever existed on this planet, and the only thing could can stop this process, is the Russians themselves.
His view then, as it is now, is the Russians have every intention of f*cking this opportunity up, but fortunately for the Russian Federationa and its people, the US is not going let them.
Who needs friends when you can have enemies such as this.
Note: Sorry Putin bots. As a Putin bot myself, it pains me to say such things. I still hold out hope that Vlad is a closet patriot, thinking generations ahead and around everyone else, but as I wrote recently, this war has taught me many things, but above all, it has taught me the Russians have an undying loathing for all things China, and would suffer any humiliation not to forced to become their future and everlasting “partners,” “friends,” and/or “close associates.”
Muralidhar Rao says
Sir you say “it has taught me the Russians have an undying loathing for all things China, and would suffer any humiliation not to forced to become their future and everlasting “partners,” “friends,” and/or “close associates.”” Can you site any example of such behavior in the past 9 months. The Russians if I am not wrong are conducting joint excercises in the Pacific Sea. Also warned the Americans against interfering in China /India conflict. Thanks
“Can you site any example of such behavior …”
Nothing specific. Just a feeling I’ve always gotten as I poured thru pro-Russian blogs and comment sections over the years, and though anti-China sentiments do seem to have slacked a touch since this SMO started, as someone who came of age during the Sino-Soviet split, and have also known quite a few Soviet ex-pats, Russian dislike for China and their way of doing things is nothing new.
“The Russians” and the Chinese …. “are conducting joint excercises in the Pacific Sea.”
Indeed. The two nations are drawing closer, partly because in these trying times for each, they must, but also because it makes sense, if only from a spoils and riches point of view.
I will say this though, the Chinese do not trust the Russians, and for good reason, in my opinion, because until quite recently, the Russian Federation was just another neo-liberal globalist wannabe, that had no interest in nonsensical crap like a “just and equitable” multi-polar world made up of linked but sovereign nation-states.
That was a Chinese idea. As was the Belt and Road Initiative, which although 147 countries around the world have signed up for as of March of ’22, the Russian Federation has yet do so.
Who are the other majors on the short list of non-signatories? All the Western neo-liberal powerhouses of course.
Max424, what do you mean with ‘until quite recently’?
Putin’s 2007 Munich speech already clearly advocated for multipolarity and a return to real international law based on sovereign states.
martin mkultra7 says
imagine all the feelings the Anglo-zionists had about a weak Russia,huge Ukie military,etc.what are their feelings now?
As the World Churns says
That early US gambit of trying to alienate Russia from China with their junior partner scare had to be one of the most pathetic attempts at psyops I’ve ever had the occasion to witness.
“…..the Russian Air Force, which seems content up until this point, to sit on the sidelines…”
I really struggle to see any value in this statement of yours.
Here’s a fact for you; every day Russian Aerospace Force is active with SU-25s, and combat helicopters attacking Ukies. Every single day!
And then there are the bombers and SU34’s used less frequently.
Just because they aren’t using US/UK style mass bombing with hundreds of bombers dropping bombs en masse doesn’t translate to “sitting on the sidelines”.
A good argument, and my main defense, would be that Russian fixed wing aircraft are no different then anybody else’s fixed wing aircraft, they are nearing obsolescence, and even in a peer to near-peer struggle such as this one, are nothing more than a small and expensive, stand-off weapons platform.
In fact, one of the great ironies of this war so far, at least for me is, Russian Su-25s et. el. are finding it nearly impossible to consistently overcome their own ancient technologies, like for instance, their Soviet era S-300s.
But I do want it to be known that I am on record (! :–); when the histories of this war are written, Russian helicopter gunship crews must be considered as among the most courageous and audacious warriors organized human societies have ever produced.
martin mkultra7 says
max,REALLY?it is RUSSIA that made those jets obsolete.remember Gary POWERS?it is RUSSIA that has made the vaunted aircraft carrier obsolete(hypersonics)so not only will they shoot your jets down,they will destroy the transport vessel you used to get them there.try some 3rd level thinking,maybe 4th level.
There are multiple things I don’t really agree with you here
1 / Airforce cannot be used much for two reasons:
1A) Before the SMO UKR probably had the second best air defense in the world (over 300 S-300 systems alone, and many hundred of others as well – its easy to check, just go to wiki). Why can’t RU destroy all those air defense systems? Well, because they are hidden and constantly turned off, and they are supported by West AWACS from RO and POL, so if RU aircraft would go over UKR lines of defense, AWACS would warn them where they are and where they are going, and then UKR could just turn it on, fire missile and move it away after the hit.
1B) If RU airoplanes would fly too low, then they would be target for many thousands of stingers and similar systems which UKR also had on its own, and have received thousands more still, and even tho they are not very effective, if you get targeted by 10 of them you would most likely get at least partially hit, and pilot that would fall into UKR controlled land should not really get a warm welcome
In real conflict, RU would first destroy all AWACS and satellite support, after which Anti Aircraft systems would be blind and mostly useless and then cheap high altitude carpet bombing by aviation would be easy to implement
2 / I don’t fully agree with you about the fact that RU would fuck this all up if west would let them. What if it is all the way around? What if RU is purposefully making “mistakes” in order to pull West deeper inside the trap?
– What if they made agreements with UKR and then withdrew forces from Kiev because they knew it would embolden them and the West to invest more in whole project and brake their word?
– What if they prepared pull out from Kharkiv region (as it was pretty well proven that whole retreat was planned weeks in advanced) in order to pull UKR and West even closer into the conflict (before Kharkiv offensive, there were doubts on the West about supporting the conflict further), inflict heavy casualties on UKR forces, and raise domestic support for draft and referendums? Simply put – if war is mostly going well, how can you justify those harsher reactions? But if UKR fasists torture teachers in reconquered Kharkiv region, everything becomes allowed.
– What if RU is purposefully grinding down UKR forces instead of occupying country because its easier to kill them in a trench then to face fierce terrorist/sabotage resistance?
– What if RU is purposefully dragging this war out (especially waiting for winter) in order to to completely kill rebellious spirit in the rest of UKR – just imagine fighting an enemy for a long time, enduring heavy hardships, destruction of your society, and enormous casualties and still loosing in the end – would you be willing to fight that opponent again?
– What if RU is purposefully dragging this war out in order to sober up as much of UKR society as possible – just imagine what most of the UKR people will think of this regime and their supporters when they learn that they were sacrificing hundreds of thousands of people for a war that could not be won? Would normal person with split identity (UKR and RU) – and most of people in UKR are like that – even consider being UKR after that?
– What if RU is purposefully dragging this war out in order to sober up as much as of EU society as possible – when they impose hardships on themselves to hurt RU and while RU thrives, they destroy themselves only to lose the war after all the hardships?
So yes, West and UKR especially (with torturing and killing of POW and people, shelling of cities etc) are doing all they can to keep RU from making a mistake (and firmly united), but I also believe that RU leadership is doing their part and thoroughly planning on how to pull this off with the least amount of casualties and costs for them and maximum impact against their enemies, as well as reaching all or most of all desired outcomes, and if it appears that they would accept something less then all of their goals, just wait and see how they play dumb, let West “trick” them again and continue as planned after that.
3 ) I don’t think that RU ever hated or even disliked CHN, I think they are just not trusting them completely and for the historically good reason. Namely, USSR helped China become truly independent country (defeat over Chang Kai Shek was probably not possible without USSR help), helped them in Korea and Vietnam only to get what in return – border provocations and conflicts? Training and arming of over 100.000 mujahedeen in Afghanistan? Maybe CHN these days have gotten over those impulses against RU, but I don’t think its strange If RU does not completely trust them yet.
Very good analysis. I too thought Russian leadership looked at the Ukraine Kharkov Offensive (hard on the heels of the Russian strategic retreat) leveraged that to declare limited mobilization.
One need only look at the map, the front line looks like a giant open jaw with Ukraine feeding the last of their manpower into the maw at Bakhmut.
The Russians indeed seem to have bumbled their way into a success across many fronts. They were able to adapt to fortuitous circumstances. Their opponents have been unable to correct their own bumbling in any effective way.
This is how it unfolds in reality. For every plan well thought out and executed there is a plethora of similar attempts that will fail to whatever degree. And while planning is elevated on a pedestal, the more important activity often is changing the plan or discarding the plan. NATO and the EU are stuck at this inflection point.
There are two root unnatural states of being, more-than-human and less-than-human. Few of consequence appear outside this hybrid dichotomy, so the world is ever contentious.
martin mkultra7 says
NONSENSE!bumbled their way into destroying NATO’s army,bumbled their way into a vibrant economy,bumbled into support by 85% of the world.as to the 15% i would tell them,NOT HAVING A PLAN IS A PLAN!
martin mkultra7 says
i would also add EU is not at an inflection point.It is at an infliction point,lots of PAIN being inflicted!
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
“Bumbled”. Strange word choice.
I think you are assuming that Russia was trying to do things that it wasn’t. Demilitarize (check) denazify (check) get Ukraine away from NATO (happening but not happened yet), protect Donbass (check).
Moscow’s Plan A was to force Kiev to agree and it almost did it. But BoJo showed up and NATO hugely prolonged the inevitable end (to, no doubt, Moscow’s amazement and secret delight.) Plan B is to drag it out so that NATO/USA/EU can destroy themselves as they seem to be hellbent on doing. “Never interfere with the enemy when he is making mistakes”.
I think “WhoKnows” has got it right in point 2.
NATO/EU is doing a sort of “suicide by cop”.
At the end Moscow will have greatly weakened its enemies and they have done it to themselves.
Pundits in the West make much of the Putin connection to the WEF, as if the WEF is the sole determining factor in the future global landscape. It doesn’t occur to them that 1) working within that organization may have been the original intent, since changed, or 2) it may be a case of simply keeping a close eye on what they’re up to, and what better way than to be an apparent insider? We don’t really know, and speculation on that point gets us nowhere because of the second incorrect assumption made in the West, i.e. that Putin is a strong man acting alone, and not simply the convenient figure head of a much larger political faction which includes the Russian Armed Forces.
The western myth of the lone sheriff that cleans up Dodge is just that. A myth. The notion that Putin single handedly drove out the oligarchs and turned the ship of state around is absurd on its face. As a myth, it may be convenient to present him that way as it plays to western expectations as well as elements of Russian society still fixated on Stalin, but I doubt it bears much resemblance to the truth.
Here’s a test. How many influential Russian figures can you name, apart from Lavrov, Medvedev and Shoigu? I’ll also mention Maria Zakharova, simply because I like her style and would like to see her as a candidate for president, although I doubt that’s in the immediate cards. But again, how many influential players can you name after that, and can you accurately characterize their roles?
As for relations with China, it has always been Russian policy to maintain good relations with their neighbours, but that doesn’t mean you have to like them, or to emulate their ways. Until recently, Vladivostok was a major Japanese tourist destination. I doubt the Japanese would come if they weren’t treated with respect and shown a good time.
As state policy, Russia makes much of their multi-ethnic composition, which is more than obvious the further east you go. Older folks may have reservations about Asians, but I doubt the younger educated people do. They are, after all, classmates with many of them, Russia being a major destination for students from Asia and Africa. If anyone pisses off Russians it’s the Uzbek and Tajik migrants, but who else will drive the trucks and taxis when Russian youth are too highly educated for those tasks and are needed elsewhere? Besides, they’re less of a problem than in the past, and nothing near the scale of illegal migrants in the USA.
The sole fly in the ointment that I see is Russia’s policy regarding pandemics and vaccinations. They are clearly off the rails in that regard and far too close to the WHO. It’s something I’m watching closely as I have intentions of visiting with the object of perhaps moving there, but not if I have to get vaccinated. Sputnik-V is just as harmful as the rest of the crap they’re pushing worldwide, and where the hell is Ivermectin in their strategy? This is the single point of concern I have about Russia right now, and it’s a big one. Hard to find information on the harm that’s been caused already, and I fear Russia may follow the same path of denial and obfuscation as in the West, since much national prestige is attached to that suka, and Russians are not immune to the sin of pride. On that note, if someone here can point me to reliable information on their current approach I’d be very grateful. I know Russians themselves are skeptical, the numbers of vaccinated are exaggerated, and some doctors are willing to forge vaccine passports, but that’s about all I know.
Years ago, Russia tried to join NATO — and got kicked in the teeth. I think that the reason Russia wanted to join NATO was in defense against the threat from China. That long, long border with a country with TEN TIMES Russia’s population….
It was only after repeated snubbings from the West that Russia was forced to deal with China in the only other way it could — by making it an ally, instead of an enemy.
So the neocon establishment, whose worst nightmare was a Sino-Russian alliance, brought about precisely that outcome. All because of its blind, unhinged hatred of Russia.
Perhaps Putin did “bumble” his way into a winning strategy…. But he sure didn’t look like a bumbler these past six months as he calmly, steadily created or fortified alliances with countries representing a majority of the world’s population. I look at the video footage from Vladivostok, Samarkand, Astrakhan, SPIEF, etc., and I see a man who is cool, collected, rational, unruffled, and TOTALLY knows what he’s doing. I see a man with a huge, deep strategy, calmly executing it.
Truly a world war in the bigger sense. Rightfully, the focus is Russia, but most of the planet in terms of people is against US/NATO, and it is unclear how much European support/strength (other than blovating) will be worth in a few months.
I think, though, the utter corruption of the west needs to be mentioned, too. The Western military should have informed (loudly and often) the western political leaders the actual state of NATO readiness. But then they would have had to have admitted how trillions of treasury were “looted” for fair-weather weapons, and the gravy train would have stopped, and many should live the rest of their lives in jail.
Just listened to Scott Ritter
he says the US heavy armor brigade in Europe now has 18 self-propelled howitzers and two weeks of amo.
So basically, the NATO battle plan against Russia is to lose quickly and launch WW3? Seems a plan that actually should be very cheap.
I think there’s much more uncertainty on the larger geopolitical stage than the smaller stage of Ukraine. I also don’t think the Kremlin was fully prepared for the US to go all in on Ukraine. But in the grand scheme of things it is clear that Russia has been working hard for years to prepare for this. It built friendships based on trust and honor, while the US bullied and believed that the whole world would do as it said, when it said. It is clear that there were no preparations for the sanctions, not in terms of what the US and Europe could manage nor getting buy in globally.
The whole thing was a back of the napkin plan dependent on best case scenarios and self-righteousness belief in image superiority. Part of that is that the empire is old and degenerate. You’ll have that with empires. Part of that is the gerontocracy that inherited the empire at its peak but never had to do the hard work of building it. Part of that is a belief in classical liberalism and the US’s place in a linear timeline of historical development.
The grand historical question is whether Putin represents Alaric the Goth, signaling the end of the empire but not witnessing it, or whether this is the end. It could go either way. The US is still powerful, but brittle and fragile. A 2008 style economic shock could be deadly.
I wrote this at MoA. It begins with my retort to Biden’s latest grounds for negotiations–Russia must retreat from Ukraine as reported by Reuters:
Indeed, Russia put forth its negotiating position almost one year ago and it hasn’t really altered much. Lavrov has said that the conditions for NATO will worsen as time elapses. Ukraine has prohibited negotiations via legislation, so Zelensky is beyond a lame duck.
And then there’s the other facet of this conflict that we occasionally discuss–the Outlaw US Empire’s economic war on the EU and thus on all NATO entities besides itself, Canada and UK–although UK has shot itself in the head already. Western propaganda outlets agree that the war is Industrial; yet, the Empire is busily deindustrializing the EU. They talk about the need to increase the industrial base to supply ammo primarily, but also to make basic weapons like artillery. But with the required energy inputs being shutdown along with the restriction of material resources and workers being laid-off, the Empire is destroying the ability of NATO to support Ukraine. Reminds me of Bush’s FEMA director during and after Katrina–Brown or Brownie as he was derogatorily called.
So, the combination of Russia’s strategy and the Outlaw US Empire’s desire for Plunder are working in unison to demilitarize NATO. And lurking behind the European situation is China–how will the EU be able to aid the Outlaw US Empire as it expects in its confrontation with China over Taiwan? Duh, it won’t be able to because of the Empire’s Plunder policy. Thus, the Outlaw US Empire is defeating its own goals via its own policy in what will be the biggest ever Geopolitical Blunder done with eyes wide open yet incapable of seeing beyond their noses and sneers.
Hal Duell says
The Ukrainian oblasts ceded to Ukraine by Russia over the last century include Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Zaporizhia, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. Russia has to date re-claimed five of those eight oblasts, leaving three to go. Will they also incorporate Dnipropetrovsk to add the hydro-electric cascades on that part of the Dnieper River?
Ukraine as it was a mere one year ago is no more. Neither is Europe for that matter. When will, or more simply will, either wake up to the fact that the US has been playing them like a piano? If the recent overtures by Macron to Biden and Scholtz to Putin are anything to go by, probably not.
Paulo Guerra says
That’s why the conflict had to come this winter. For us to begin to see the first gaps between Europe and the US! Which is Europe’s only chance not to be dragged into a black hole. China and Russia continue to count and need the European economy in the context of the Eurasian economy! And the story of the German industry moving to the US is longer than that. China already has a lot of capital invested in German industry. And who thought that the conflict lasted a week was as right as those who suddenly discovered many errors in SMO?! As if anyone knew the reality of Ukraine better than Russia. As if more men solve anything in an artillery war that has already obliterated an army!
And of course Russia’s main objective in Ukraine has always been the implosion of EU and NATO! That will end up never fulfilling your biggest dream. Turning the Black Sea into a NATO lake! At least Truss was happier in her ignorance of thinking that the Black Sea was in the Baltic. The Donbass was just the trigger to trigger art. 51 of the UN! And yes, in addition to the conflict in Ukraine, Russia is today the great pivot of a multipolar NWO! With a new financial system ready to go! On the other hand, nothing could make the US more dangerous! Since they haven’t survived without foreign resources for many years. Materials and finances! God help us all!
Putin said they are demilitarizing the Nazis and Denazifying after that.
What part did you miss?
The Russians haven’t finished demilitarizing yet.
Putin stated that all the RF objectives of the SMO will be completed. Presumably there will be Russian domination-control of the Black Sea including Odessa at least. Eventually it will also include “indivisibility of security” presumably to eliminate the threats posed by NATO bases in Poland and Romania along with the new ones the West is working to establish in Finland and Sweden, as well as security guarantees from Russia and restoration of nuclear treaties. Possibly in the long run, the EU once economically downgraded will come begging to Russia for a deal that will kick out NATO-US bases in exchange for resumption of competitive energy-resource flows. This will all take years and setbacks are inevitable.
NATO member countries, as well as future members Finland and Sweden, in a joint statement called on Russia to stop aggression against Ukraine and withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory “completely and unconditionally”.
What are they smoking and or drinking?
Paulo Guerra says
The defeat. On the rocks. Beaten, not stirred.
10 to 1 says
A grievous result of our DoD system of weapons development is their exponential growth in cost with a concomitant exponential decrease in the numbers purchasable. Fighter aircraft, once purchased in thousands per year in the 1950s and 1960s are now acquired in tens per year. Global jet bomber fleets of B-47s and B-52s (our oldest and still our best heavy bomber) acquired by the thousand and many hundreds have fallen to 100 B-1Bs and 21 B-2s. Missiles follow the same pattern of exponential cost and atrophy. This is Unilateral Disarmament in the Face of Our Enemies by acquiring the wrong weapons for the relevant wars
Pentagon contracting is not the free market, it’s corrupt crony capitalism.
Curt Nichols says
Our weapons systems are maintenance hogs also. Look at the Abrams tank. An effing jet turbine engine. Fix that with a wrench set in a muddy Ukrainian field. The F22’s and F35’s. With an outstanding 35% operational readiness rate. We lost F22’s in Florida at Tyndall Air Force base to a hurricane because they could not even fly them off the fucking base with a week’s notice. One of my numerous wives had a brother who flew B2’s out of Whiteman AF base just north of me in Missouri. The anti-radar coating is degraded by? Rain. The Army has a new rifle with a $10,000 battery powered scope on it that only holds 20 rounds. The scope weighs three pounds alone. The whole rig loaded will be about 13 to 14 pounds. Because every infantry rat ever always said “Give me a heavier rifle that holds fewer BB’s”.
Larry Johnson says
I know. Great comment. Really highlights the trouble we are in. Thanks for sharing this.
What’s even funnier is that T-80 also has a gas turbine, and they seem to work just fine. Recently they’ve sent a new batch with winter camo.
the blame-e says
My father commanded an armored unit back in the 1950s. Around 2006, he was invited to a reunion back at Fort Knox. They put him into an Abrams. He came home a little concerned about how complex tanks had become and didn’t seem to have much confidence the combat utility of the turbine engine.
He was more excited about getting back into one of his “old” M47 or M48 Patton tanks the base had sitting around. Back in the 1950s the military had between four (4) and five (5) combat tanks in service.
In September it was reported that the Army was replacing its M4/M4A1 with the XM5 and SM250 rifles, manufactured by Sig Sauer.
And yet, our fully-dysfunctional government is all hot and bothered, in their continued hostility towards banning the civilian version of the AR-15, calling it an “assault rifle.” AR doesn’t stand for “assault rifle.” It stands for Arma Lite Revision number 15. But that’s how the ideologues work. Demonize. Propagandize.
I wonder if the average American citizen will ever be able to own civilian versions of the XM5 and XM250 rifles?
Tom S. says
“Pentagon contracting is not the free market, it’s corrupt crony capitalism.”
Absolutely correct, going on 50 years now. It has become such an entrenched tradition for DC in general, and at the Pentagon in particular, that nothing short of the resurrection of an austere French Lady and the requirement of most of the Interagency to, “look out the little window,” will remedy it.
the blame-e says
Everything has gotten so “cronied” that our system isn’t even capitalism anymore. Just one big corporate oligarchy run amok.
S. Clark says
Max424: “I hate to say it, but Russia bumbled into a war-winning strategy.” A very brilliant thought. Reminds me what G.S. Shaw wrote, that battles are won by not the most brilliant general, but by one who makes the fewest mistakes. Much as I think a lot of Trump’s failures were that the liberals offered him a chance to carve them up and he didn’t…and he had some of the worst, if not traitorous advisors around. There was more frantic checkers being played than 4-D chess. Among all the world leaders, esp. in Europe and the West, Putin is the least incompetent.
As for Max’s comments that Russia won’t play second fiddle to China, I’m reminded of a graduate course I took in college many years ago. My professor, who lived in Russia for many years, thought (and this was in 1982) that in the end, the Soviet Union would collapse, but there would be an eventual reunion of Sino-Russian interests. He believed Russia would want to join the west but, eventually, there were too many contradictions in western and Russian beliefs, as well as a Russian refusal to submit to American domination that would send Russia back to ally with China, a power they were more compatible with.
Of course, in 1982 no one dreamed we would simply give most of out industrial base to China.
I’ve been reading a lot of Roman history lately, and wonder if the West is following Rome by being unable to live up to the empire its founders built, and is also being eaten up by a new faith, much like Christianity did for Rome.
The new faith here isn’t Islam, but wokeism. This combined ecology/gender/”rights”/racism belief is a fanaticism that seems unstoppable and can’t be reasoned with, and although is obviously being manipulated by the western political class, may well have a life of its own, and simply destroy the west out of simple rage.
Russia and China might succeed if they can close this bacillus out of their systems.
It may well be a battle between, as Nietzsche put it, Apollonian and Dionysian man. If you want to read a play about wokeism, go to Euripide’s The Bacchae.
There is so much dependent on a Russian victory.
“Russia and China might succeed if they can close this bacillus out of their systems.”
The bacillus in the system they need to elimate is the neo-liberal globalists that are always at the ready to take over any and all nation-states, whenever the chance arises.
Take over the state and make it the muscle of the greater globalist agenda, and the bigger and badder the state, the more muscle you get.
In Russia they call em “Atlantacists,” in China they’re called “coastal elites” or the “Shanghai Cartel,” and in the west, hell, they don’t even have a name, as elites at all levels have been all aboard the greater globalist agenda for decades now.
Wokesim to me is nothing more than a post-mortem spasm of a nation-state that has long since passed away.
Note: When I was kid, would’ve been about twelve, 1972, the height of the Sino-Soviet split, Nixon playing the Soviets against the Chinese, detente with one and an opening up of the other, and I remember my Dad and my Uncle talking about it, and both of them agreeing, that the faction in the Kremlin that wanted to nuke China out of existence before it became unstoppable, might just win out over the moderates.
I remember the conversation – almost – as if it were yesterday for two reasons; one, because I was like, what the heck are they saying and why are they allowing me to hear this! And two, because I couldn’t help but wonder, how do these men, both of them simple and humble high-school teachers, know so much about what’s going on inside the ultra-double-secret Soviet Union?
Turns out they both read about the Kremlin split in Time magazine.
What a different world it was back then. We actually a media for instance, and although I wouldn’t say it was exactly functioning on all cylinders, at least it had a detectable heartbeat.
Great article, thank you!
Sierra Madre Trails says
Russia is waiting for the west to come fight or withdraw from Ukraine. No other deal with such fake people.
The West was on a nihilist bent of self destruction before the Ukraine war. The US exported its manufacturing, ran huge trade imbalances, and went further and further in debt to keep the party going. And then there were all the senseless neocon wars in the Middle East, the Covid debacle and now Ukraine. One can also add in leftist social engineering and mass immigration tearing at social cohesion. And the latest leftist delusion is to do away with fossile fuels without having a viable alternative.
“The West was on a nihilist bent of self destruction before the Ukraine war. ”
No a financicist bent from the 1970’s onwards which “seemed wise at the time”, but was limited with delay and increasing trajectories and velocities became nihilst, requiring, since “they also seemed wise at the time” the hopes represented as “strategies”, which include but are not restricted to those you outline, increasing the knowledge by some of the West’s tendencies to premature ejaculations and opportunities of transcendence afforded thereby, including the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation.
They see the war during till at least 2040 or even beyond 2100.Not alone as M
Sleboda(former RT and Sputnik analysis) also thinks the war also going on for 25/30 years.
This is in French(from Algeria), must and can though be easily machine translate.
Charles E. Fromage says
“…The combined GDP of the West is $40 Trillion.”
Since so much coming from the West is spin, propaganda and lies, why is this any different?
Not that the figure is false – but rather, much that is included in their calculation of GDP (useless government expenditure, financial trading, bloated military spending) is not only NON-productive, its actually a drain on society. Its only useful in a very general and inaccurate way.
” Its only useful in a very general and inaccurate way.”
The design/practice is useful in an ideological way, as is the ideological construct of Gross Domestic Product whose design/inherent purpose is to prioritise and emphasise + (pluses/positives), whilst obfuscating the nature and beneficial spread of the + es through aggregates as a function of + es – one of the mazes to facilitate enmazement.
Consequently in accounting terms the Gross Domestic Product “balance sheet” reports all activity as credits without debits, the debits being subsumed in the credits – effectively an excercise in double counting.
This technique was also beloved of Gosplan to facilitate over-achievement of the plan ensuring that almost everyone “earned” a bonus, whilst production including logistic interactions lessened facilitating the increase in individual savings, since the fall of productivity lessened products available that the bonus receivers could use their bonuses to purchase.
As you outline
“but rather, much that is included in their calculation of GDP (useless government expenditure, financial trading, bloated military spending) is not only NON-productive, its actually a drain on society.”
“Not that the figure is false”
Evaluation is always a function of purpose.
Hence if the purpose is to assess social well-being the figure is false.
If the purpose is to obfuscate the assessment of social well being, then the figure is correct and continues to fill the purpose of obfuscation.
War is not limited to things that go bang but includes but is not limited to – de facto saturated with – framing; a component and tool of “perception management”.
What kind of cheese do you make?
Yes USA GDP is total bull… 20% just disappears into healthcare ether, 40% is just “financial services” little of which is reflected in Russia’s numbers because HC is cheap and everything is not financialized. Real GDPs are closer to 5 trillion vs 10 based on production. You’d think with claims of RUssia having “Italy” GDP, it would look like italy. No army. Cities falling apart, etc Instead Russia has more weapons than NATO and cities envy of Europe – clean, No graffiti, no homeless, etc
“Yes USA GDP is total bull..”
Not restricted to “The United States of America” – the methods of GDP were/are applied to many “statistical analyses” including “World Bank statistics” which some deem to describe the state of “Russia” throughout the 1990’s in furtherance of the illusions of “full spectrum dominance” and practices to sustain this illusion, including in morbidity rates and causations, since in “The Soviet Union” and The Russian Federation some data was held to be state secrets, whilst some data was never recorded to avoid taxes and/or wives/mistresses – the estimate of non-recorded societal data in 1992 in Russia (except Kaliningradsky oblast which was assigned the no idea designation) was estimated to be in the region of 25% to at least 30%.
However that was based upon insufficient data even when “repatriations” from the near abroad were necessary for “lustrations/lubrications of independence”, since such “considerations”, typically in pristine notes enhanced with the head of Mr. Franklin and “In God We Trust”, were often transported in luggage, typically on trains since on Soviet trains the floor of corridor of each carriage could be opened and locked by the “conductor” and the carpet put over for some consideration, particularly during the period when “independent states” had not yet fully controlled “their borders” which happened on or around the early autumn of 1993.
This practice, except on trains, has been prevalent since serfdom, Mr. Gogol’s Dead Souls refers.
In the United States of America one similar instance of many was the “end of prohibition”.
War, which some understood had continued to exist since at least 1922, is not restricted to things that go bang, but includes but is not restricted to, scientific methods including mathematics.
Although not the purpose desired, this in some part aided the myopia and complicity of others in facilitating the ongoing transcendence of “The Soviet Union” by The Russian Federation, as does “THE DEEP, VISCERAL, CRAZY HATRED OF PUTIN” and its framing.
Gross Domestic Product is always an ideological construct in attempts to facilitate ideological purposes by anal-ysts worldwide, since outcomes due to methods including framing are full of shit – which was known in apparently politer times as garbage in/garbage out which may also describe the “American diet”.
Another example of an ideological construct “pleasuring” logic/mathematics also having primarily an ideological utility is Game Theory but not all agree, however Mr. von Neumann did in part agree when he was no longer an immigrant working his passage in a strange land.
“One of Moscow’s aims is to demilitarize Ukraine; never in its wildest dreams could it have foreseen that it would demilitarize NATO too.”
The author/believer of the above sentence is the one who is dreaming.
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
Dream along with me https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/26/world/europe/nato-weapons-shortage-ukraine.html
“Dream along with me..(us)”
Thank you for outlining further corroboration of whom you are dreaming with – even without recourse to sexual intercourse – since the dreaming of others is always a useful vector of their transcendence.
Thank you for your service and/or servicing.
the blame-e says
Also, Russia has very little debt. Makes a big difference. A real GDP is one that includes an offset for debt. I wouldn’t be surprised if the real GDP of the United States was closer to that of Russia.
the blame-e says
“Inflations Boosts U.S. Household Spending.”
They make it sound so good. “Boost” is good, right? Getting a boost is good, right? And if inflation is doing the boosting, even better.
Doomberg was in the Macro Hive podcast a few weeks ago.
That team has been spot on with respect to energy and food for well over a year – well before the SMO began.
Key note from that talk: When the world is in energy shortage, energy becomes the only currency that matters. Not the US dollar or US Treasuries.
Second key note: ESG and other forms of environmental legislation/social pressure/financial pressure are extending the duration of energy production shortfall vs. demand.
Western energy companies are not investing into new exploration at anywhere remotely near the rates which they had in the past, in response to price spikes. This means if demand does not fall rapidly due to high energy prices (as the Fed wants), then the economic beatings will continue. This applies just as well to other commodities too including food and fertilizer.
IMO – the only reason we haven’t gone to the next level in oil prices is because of US SPR releases. Harris Kupperman noted a 1 million barrel per day shortfall between demand and supply that drove oil prices to triple digits – the SPR releases by Biden are roughly 1 million bpd. It seems doubtful that the SPR releases can continue indefinitely – but it is 100% clear that this action has confirmed to the energy companies that it isn’t worthwhile to invest billions into new production.
The record oil price of $147/barrel in July 2008 only lasted a short time; oil started 2008 at $93 but ended at $41; the impact of multiple years of $80-$150+ oil has never been felt so far but it seems we will try it…
the blame-e says
The whole “Green Movement” and the whole “going green” thing is just another way of saying the world is experiencing energy shortages, and how locally we can expect to experience energy shortfalls. It’s a PR campaign. More propaganda. Yet, another distraction from reality.
According to Forbes: “The SPR has now been depleted since President Biden took office from 640 million barrels to 450 million barrels. [As of November 2022, that figure is down to 405-million barrels.]
The daily consumption of oil in the US is now very close to 20-million barrels daily. If all the consumption came from the SPR, that would mean the US has just over 20-days of oil left. Of course, not all the US consumption is coming from the SPR. Last estimates left us with a 60-day supply of oil in the SPR. But what if?
“The SPR contained 685 million barrels [just prior to Biden taking office].”
“With the U.S. importing 10.1 million BPD of crude oil at that time [when daily consumption of oil in the US was 20-million BPD], that was enough oil to cover 68 days of supply. In 2021, the U.S. imported 6.1 million BPD, of which only 800,000 BPD came from OPEC. More importantly, a lot of that imported oil was refined and re-exported as finished products.” [So, how are we making up the 4,000,000 BPD? The SPR?]
So, the United States is still importing crude oil, while relying upon the SPR, and exporting much of the SPR to places like China and Europe. Insane much?
At what time does the US stop exporting what it needs just to survive here at “home?”
None of the many experts (Larry/Ritter/Martyanov/McGregor/Duran etc) I follow have come up with a satisfactory reason why the Russians haven’t taken out the Dneiper bridges yet.
We are often told they have the capacity to do so, and that to do so would seriously hamper the arms traffic from Poland, and yet still they stand.
Anyone know – or guess – why this is so?
“None of the many experts (Larry/Ritter/Martyanov/McGregor/Duran etc) I follow have come up with a satisfactory reason why the Russians haven’t taken out the Dneiper bridges yet.”
That is likely because the “expert”‘s expertise does not extend that far due to insufficient blat, where as the security council of the Russian Federation is not often subject to such insufficienies.
Let me suggest you try addressing your question through the Moscow Kremlin website at en.kremlin.ru
Why would you do that if your goal is to kill Nazi young men. (demilitariation) Much easier on eastern steppe than forests of Western Ukraine. Added bonus is they use tons of fuel for transport back and forth like 1000km from poland which costs west and makes Russia more money.
Say Russians destroyed the bridges and take all of east Ukraine, that won’t win war. It only get Ukraine former 600K men easier logistics to contine firing across the river into perpetuity because Russians will not go into west.
I found Ritter’s analysis satisfactory. Until the Russians start their major offensive, why not let them schlep these high maintenance Western weapon systems 20 hours to Poland and 20 hours back to the front? It keeps those weapons offline for an extra 2 days. And it consumes much needed diesel.
The Goldilocks War
Mike D. says
How much are poor military decisions and poor execution impacted by woke hiring, affirmative action, etc…? We always have cronyism, nepotism in all aspects of society but my sense is we have more
of it with compounded by political correctness influencing who is in key roles. I feel that behind the scenes it is a real shit show of incompetence.
HELMHOLTZ SMITH says
My suspicion based on my own experiences and comments by Larry, Col MacG, Ritter and others is that the Western intelligence agencies are now pretty much trained to tell their bosses what they want to hear. There just isn’t anyone out there who can get a platform to say, for example, that the Russian economy is robust and pretty self-sufficient and, therefore, sanctions won’t have much of an effect. Just imagine somebody in the 5 eyes trying to tell his bosses that Putin is the legitimately elected and widely supported leader of a country and his popularity ratings are generally accurate. No promotions for you, Bucky! And don’t forget to take your 17th booster!
“Western intelligence agencies are now pretty much trained to tell their bosses what they want to hear.”
You are conflating an aspect with a whole based upon 3rd party “analysis/belief”
Not a wise or unexpected analytical method likely as a function of similar analytical facilities of “Western intelligence agencies”
US could not fight a war vs Russia like Ukrainans are. I’ve heard from lots of foreign mercs. Americans GTFO at first sign of artillery blowing people apart 30km out. It’s easier to pay people to kill, like shooting fish in a barrel, Iraq style, much harder to pay people to die
Americans today, sociologically, are not gonna die for USA in large numbers. TPTB ruined it with wokism/equity BS instead of former equality and merit. If you’re black why die for “white supremacy” if white why die for a nation that will ruin your career for a joke or getting passed over because wrong color?
I don’t even worry about US entering this conflict on the conventional level. Because Generals know we’d get wrecked despite what they say for a paycheck.
Which one would you chose ?? The E . Fromage can be Emmentaler or Epoise……🩸
Casual Observer says
I would say he’s Chucky Cheese wearing a Brooks Brothers tie and penny loafers.
S. Clark says
Max 424: “simple, humble high school teachers.” Reminds me of my eighth grade history teacher, a feisty woman who argued it was foolish for us not to recognize China, and instead waste our efforts on Taiwan. James Clavell, who wrote Tai-pan and Shogun, spent many years in China, and argued that communism would eventually go away. It served a purpose to cleanse the country, get the foreigners out, and unify it, but he said the Chinese were natural capitalists, and would take to it once they got into the system. I remember that argument in the 70’s about Russia taking out China before it got too strong. I think it was said Brezhnev offered this to Nixon, but Nixon turned it down. Anyway, Nixon’s impetus in opening up China was to get them to help end the Vietnam war, and we see how well that worked out. Interesting that Vietnam, which wrecked much of American stability, is like Ukraine today: we let these foreign wars obsess and drain us, but in a sense, it’s what the West is addicted to. Again, thinking how Rome went on occasional binges trying to conquer Persia, and it did them no good.
The U.S. and its cronies only think to the next crisis, and they believe they can keep fighting for decades as long as they have the dollar and can drain anyone’s economy to keep the war chest full. The rumors about America bankrupting Germany, getting its industry to relocate to America seems possible. The American eagle has become a spider with a very cozy, extensive web with more than enough flies willing to fly into it.
Lou Brooks says
Quote S. Clark
“The U.S. and its cronies only think to the next crisis, and they believe they can keep fighting for decades as long as they have the dollar and can drain anyone’s economy to keep the war chest full. The rumors about America bankrupting Germany, getting its industry to relocate to America seems possible.”
Those crisis’s are created by the U.S. and a few Western Euro allies to colonise and keep the world, or portions of it on profit producing wars.
As for Germany or Euro industry moving to America…I am inclined to believe there is a better chance for these industries to move to Northern Africa. Better labor costs and still accessible to the Mediterranean, Europe and Asia. However, there are huge tax issues with doing so, I am sure. Siemens screwed themselves big time with letting Canada hold onto those gas compressors. Once Russia moves to an Asian provider of compressors, what is the loss to Siemens? There-in, is the issue for German industry. Move to America where production costs are higher than in Europe, or move to North Africa or Asia and then incur the rath of the German government. Chances are good that German industry will remain where they are, in Germany.
Tai-pan was the first adult book my parents let me read (same year too, 1972), and yes, one of the key takeaways from the Clavell novel is undoubtedly, the Chinese are natural born capitalists. The Soviets knew it, hence their fears.
“Nixon’s impetus in opening up China was to get them to help end the Vietnam war … ”
And to rip em open so our banks and corporations could move in and ransack the place. Which happened for a spell in the wake of Deng’s “market reforms” of ’79 – we probably got in two decades worth of prime, and mostly unencumbered looting, before China started to limit the operation with an eye toward shutting it down completely.
The Chinese were playing us all along. I mean how do you compete with a nation-state when you think in terms of quarterlies, and they think in terms of 50 years plans when they’re busy, and 100 year plans when they’re not?
“Rome went on occasional binges trying to conquer Persia … ”
Yeah they did, mostly got their asses spanked too.
One thing I’ll say about the Romans, their billionaire class was willing take the field and fight and die at the front for the greater glory of Rome
Marcus Licinius Crassus was the richest man Rome ever produced, and he was slaughtered in Persia trying to stretch the boundaries of the empire to the known reaches of the universe.
I mean Crassus was like Bill Gates, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos all rolled into one, that’s how rich he was, yet there he was in a far off alien desert leading Roman legions to their doom.
It’s impressive think upon, especially when contrasted with those three flabby marshmellows.
Actually, I take that remark back. Bezos looks lean and mean, he might have it him to lead an army on a fatal march.
Higgs Boson says
“More and more countries are moving away from the US dollar – what happens when it’s just another national currency like dozens of others?”
That is an interesting question. How, exactly does a country “de-dollarize”? The USD is a nonconvertible fiat currency. Only the issuer (the US gov’t) can delete or destroy a US dollar. It does that by taxing it out of existence. No one else can do that. If you possess a USD denominated asset, you can sell it to someone else for a real asset (commodity) or trade it on the foreign currency exchange for some other currency (like yen or euros). But, *somebody* will always be left holding the bag until the US gov’t taxes that USD out of existence.
Lou Brooks says
Countries just simply will not, and some already are not, transact at the corporate level with purchases in the dollar. By not using SWIFT for transactions is another way. By selling all U.S. debt or bonds to another country. By Saudi Arabia moving away from oil (petro-dollar) as a base for their economy and moving to financial growth assets to power their country.
When enough countries do not want the dollar as a fiat or common currency for transactions then the dollar loses itf value and appeal as something that can be “banked” on, something that is solid. In a multi-polar world there will not be one fiat currency, unless of course, WEF and company get their way. Where now State level and corporate level transactions are carried out in the U.S. dollar, those transactions will be carried out in the currencies of those countries or a fiat currency they can agree on.
As it is, the U.S. and its dollar have both lost a lot of appeal to the world. Especially when the U.S. and Europe both have no qualms about sanctioning and stealing assets of countries they do not like. Why transact in a currency, or put your assets in that country when at a whim, the country will steal those assets. The U.S. and Europe have screwed themselves royally.
Larry P. Johnson says
I am buried in a sea of voices so do not post much anywhere anymore. But every once in a while I come out of the closet and state what to me makes more sense out of the nonsense policies of the West. The attack on Europe, IMHO, was not a policy out of the war party of Washington as much as a competing policy of the Globalist faction of which Biden belongs. Many NATO countries also belong, Canada, Holland, Belgium, UK, well, you get the idea. Their program, run by the elites of the West, is a political movement that embraces the ploy that environmental fear porn as a basis for deindustrialization is a viable program to control whole countries.
Therefore the UK, almost certainly involved with the Nordstream pipeline attacks was both an attack on the industry of Germany and Europe AND an attack on its own industrial base. Many pundits refuse to see this self destruction as a reality, but at the same time governments cannot be so coordinated in these endeavours without it being seen as a program.
My two cents, for what it is worth.
“Many pundits refuse to see this self destruction as a reality, but at the same time governments cannot be so coordinated in these endeavours without it being seen as a program.”
As expected but it would likely be impolite to thank them for their service.
However let me suggest that you pose the wrong question – also not unexpectedly.
Perhaps a more appropriate question to pose would be:
Is the refusal of perception of self-destruction limited to pundits?
Yesterday Russian president called and spoke with Belarusian president by phone; today, Russian defense minister traveled to Minsk and met with his counterpart, and also met separately with Belarusian president.
From Minsk, Tass reports, in part:
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu [[praised Belarus’ determination “to oppose the hostile policy of the US and its allies, and readiness to work together to ensure the military security of the Union State”.
Shoigu noted that “activities aimed at ensuring combat coordination between Russian and Belarusian military units included in a regional group of forces are taking place in Belarus based on a decision made by the two countries’ presidents”.]]
And: [[“Belarus has been and remains our reliable partner. It is particularly important today, amid unprecedented pressure from the collective West and an undeclared war against our countries,” Shoigu said]] related to his meeting with Belarus defense secretary.
& Related to his meeting today with President Alexander Lukashenko, Tass reported:
[[“Our officers and your officers are training the guys, both Belarusians and Russians, in order to make sure that if the need arises, the defenders of the Union State are capable of repelling any aggression,” Lukashenko said. “We are training as one single group, one single army.” ]]
Joseph AS says
Unreliable in bad weather! Love it. This reminds me of the article about UK Royal Navy ships that overheated in the Persian Gulf. BAe stated that they worked in the North Sea……. Forgetting that most of the UK’s conflicts have been in hot regions……
S. Clark says
Max 424: Re. the Persians cleaning up the Romans. One of Rome’s last and possibility brilliant emperors, Julian the Apostate also went to Persia. He tried to reinstate paganism and play the Christians at their own game, but felt he had to go into Persia. As it was, he won battles, but the Persians just kept retreating and his army started breaking down. He died in battle, and not a few historians believed in his last battle, the Christians killed him off.
Hitler said “Julian the Apostate? No, he was the true Roman. The Christians, who perverted Rome’s purpose, are the real apostates.”
Not to wander off into history here, just that the possibility of cheap (presumed) conquest is always dangling before great powers, and weakened empires who see a chance to revive their status or grab some loot. Maybe the West is like Hollywood, who know they make a lot of schlock movies that break the budget, but that one Marvel comics Superhit will save the studio. Was Ukraine to be their superhit?
Much of the Soviet/Sino conflict came between arguing doctrine. Moscow claimed you needed to build socialism, then communism will emerge. Mao said he’d already created communism. The west hoped both powers would blow each other up (really), but Mao and Moscow always understood the need to at least close ranks. Mao did upset Russia when he said in a nuclear war, 100 million Chinese could die and they could still win, but this could also be posturing on his part. You have to remember then that we knew little about what went on those countries political systems. Our ignorance then was monumental. Amazing to recall then China had no diplomatic recognition, and little Taiwan was considered one of the major U.N. powers.
I agree with a previous post that we charged into China to exploit it . I remember many entrepreneurs were gangbusters on investment, and all they did was go on about China, China, China. My impression was these types didn’t a give a whit about America or its economic problems and changes. They were narcissistic types caring only about making their billion. It was the age of “greed is good.” Capitalist development IS good, but there is always a possibility of letting sociopaths determine your economy and job market. That’s where you need some control. Not around anymore.
To enlarge on my earlier post, I wonder if many of these woke types so determined to destroy any kind of industrial life in Europe are simply another version of these
sociopaths. The Green Party in Germany began as these oh-so-kind ecologists, but now are simply a fifth column designed to destroy Germany and the West. Maybe they were culled into existence, but as we discover, covert groups have a tendency to develop their own life, and the monkey begins to think he’s an organ grinder.