The Western media treats the war in Ukraine in isolation but the truth is that it is just one battlefield in a world war. Russia knows it – “The US wants to weaken and destroy Russia, and is using Ukraine as a ‘battering ram‘”; America too – “Russia’s invasion tears at the rules-based international order that keeps us all secure” (translation from Newspeak – “threatens our predominance”.) The US-centric system is fighting across the world to maintain its superiority.
And how is that wider war going? For the US and its allies – the self-anointed “International Community” – the answer is not very well. Their assumption that sanctions would collapse the Russian economy and overthrow Putin has backfired – Worst fall in UK living standards, European power prices shatter records, Inflation boosts U.S. household spending. Plenty more headlines like those. Even that citadel of Russophobia The Economist has to admit “As Europe falls into recession, Russia climbs out“.
Did they think, when they sanctioned the world’s largest energy exporter and two of the principal potash exporters, that fuel and food prices would go down?
Allied unity is shaky. Ankara has effectively blamed the USA for the recent terror attacks and is openly attacking US allies in Syria. Poland’s President admits “I don’t need a war with Russia“. Zelinsky’s insistence that a Russian missile hit Poland when everyone knows it didn’t, is “destroying [our] confidence in them“. Europeans start to understand that Washington played them for fools. How many European manufacturers are moving to the USA? Who blew up Nordstream? A mystery too secret to answer (but it wasn’t Russia). Western economies will not get better, winter is “weaponized”, inflation, unemployment and dissatisfaction will grow.
A year after he invaded the USSR, Hitler invited himself to Marshal Mannerheim’s birthday party. The Finns bugged the railroad car and caught Hitler admitting that German weapons were only fit for “good weather”. We see the same thing in Ukraine – NATO’s weaponry is delicate; previous “wonder weapons” like Javelin are disappointing; air defense doesn’t stop missiles. In fact the only “wonder weapon” with much effect is the HIMARS but its warheads are small and the latest “deliveries” haven’t even been built.
NATO weapons production is also “good weather”. A heavy artillery day in Afghanistan was 300 rounds and for that US production of roughly 80,000 155mm rounds a year was plenty. But Ukraine is reportedly firing 20 times as many per day and Russia seven times that. One of the few prescient pieces published by the establishment press was “The Return of Industrial Warfare” in June. That pointed out what is now apparent to all – NATO does not have the production to keep up with demand. Brian Berletic has been keeping track of the diminishing quantity and quality of weaponry sent from America. This can be best exemplified by the 60 year old HAWK air defence system just sent. 50 year old Gepards. “Upgraded” (20 years ago) T-55 tanks. No more 155mm guns, now 105mm guns. Even the tame media is worried – “Ukraine’s Appetite for Weapons Is Straining Western Stockpiles“, “U.S. and NATO Scramble to Arm Ukraine and Refill Their Own Arsenals.” There are plans to increase production but that’s years away.
One of Moscow’s aims is to demilitarize Ukraine; never in its wildest dreams could it have foreseen that it would demilitarize NATO too. Boasting “How can Russia possibly hope to win an arms race when the combined GDP of the West is $40 trillion…?” misses the point – guns fire shells, not engraved paper.
And more. The West loves to call itself the “international community” but even the establishment has to admit that most of the world does not agree. Look at the lineup of countries wanting to get into BRICS or the SCO. How enthusiastic will cold unemployed Europeans be when another couple of million Ukrainians arrive expecting to be put up in hotels? There are protests all the time all over Europe – how long can they be ignored? Is Europe really “heading to the Middle Ages“? How many people will die from cold? More and more countries are moving away from the US dollar – what happens when it’s just another national currency like dozens of others? What happens after the last elderly weapon is dug out of the last storage bin and shipped? Where is Plan B?
They were so certain that the Ruble would become rubble that they didn’t bother with Plan B. All there is is more fluff and yelling louder –”Sanctions have weakened Russia and sowed doubts about Putin’s leadership. More pressure is needed to bring an end to the war.”
True, but the pressure is not on Russia. Russia can wait – time is on its side in the big war.