Here is the map showing the situation in the Seversk area of the Donbas. It is bad news for Ukraine:
Russia is closing the cauldron and Ukrainian troops are making desperate attempts to flee to Siversk. Russia has fire control over the roads and Ukrainians who try to escape on those roads face annihilation. The Russian Minister of Defense reported that 6000 Ukrainian troops are captive (no breakdown re how many have been nabbed from the Lysychansk operation). Not an inconsequential number.
It is important to note that Russia took care not to destroy the Lysychansk oil refinery, which reportedly was a main supply of fuel to the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. Loss of that site means that Ukraine will have to find an alternative source of fuel. This means longer lines of resupply just to keep Ukrainian military vehicles still in the region fueled and operational. Not an easy task.
Although many western analysts stick doggedly to their tale that Russia is taking a beating and that Russia is too weak to oust the Ukrainian forces, the reality is otherwise. Russia continues to consolidate its control over the Donbas. In contrast to the Alamo stand of Ukraine’s AZOV battalion in Mariupol, Ukrainian troops are not complying with NATO’s wish that they fight to the last Ukrainian. Instead, they are fleeing west as best they can, running a gauntlet of Russian artillery and air strikes. It looks like the next main target for Russia in this part of the Donbas will be Siversk.
The only piece of land Ukraine has “retaken” is Snake Island. Not clear yet if Ukraine’s military leaders have decided to put a force on the island, but God help them if they do. Russia’s withdrawal, despite the Russian Minister of Defense’s claim that this move was to counter Ukraine’s excuses for not exporting grain through the Black Sea, was simply a cost/benefit decision.
Resupplying Snake Island was a logistical waste. Russia could have continued to funnel ammunition and missiles needed to operate air defense systems on the island. But that is a costly investment of resources for a rock that only has symbolic importance in the eyes of the Ukrainians. It is easier and cheaper for the Russians to hit the floating rock with its missiles. Any Ukrainian deployed on that small terrain will be a sitting duck. It has zero strategic value for Russia’s task of demilitarizing the Donbas.
To underscore this point, here is the Russian Minister of Defense’s briefing on attacking Ukrainian military sites inside and outside the Donbas:
High-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have destroyed 2 command posts, 5 munitions depots near Ivano-Daryevka, Seversk (Donetsk People’s Republic), Belogorovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Nikolayev, Lepetikha (Nikolayev region), as well as AFU manpower and military equipment in 26 areas.
Within the counter-battery warfare, high-precision attacks launched by Russian Aerospace Forces have neutralised 2 MRLS plattoons and 2 artillery plattoons near Lesovka, Selidovo and Netaylovo that had been shelling the settlements of the Donetsk People’s Republic.
Operational-tactical and army aviation, missile troops and artillery have neutralised: 32 AFU command posts, 1 radar designed for detecting air targets near Katranka (Odessa region), 3 munitions depots near Spornoye (Donetsk People’s Republic), as well as manpower and military equipment in 297 areas.
Russia has adopted an AT&T strategy–Reach out, Reach out and touch someone:
Instead of hugs, Russia is sending hypersonic missiles. Not the kind of greeting the Ukrainians are excited to receive.
Great Recap, Mr Johnson. What will happen after they take Siversk? Do you think that Odessa is next?
What happened to the 100k or 200k troops that were in the Donbass? 6000 captured is not much compared to that. 100k dead? Still in the Donbass?
The cauldron closing on siversi will be devastating to the ukrop and merc forces trapped in them , after foolish move reinforcing the cities for PR purposes expecting these morons of holding the city like mariupol ..
seem like every single counter move by the ukrops is for PR purposes as they lost initiative (nut that they got much in this SMO)
let see more and more cauldron formed behind the lines of forticitacion in the donbass area , there will be slow like a small snowball and then suddenly rolled into gigantic ball and by that time the ukrops will fled west leaving every equipment behind while getting demilitarized by russian arty..
no symphathy for those who serve the kiev nazi govt
Sorry if I bother with my question. I don’t know anything about military matters. Does the author, Señor Johnson, mean that Russia is not taking any bait like the Lithuanian worm or the Serpent Island worm or any other Western worm bait?
You can have your answer by reading all Larry Johnson’s article on ukraine SMO right here. Maybe a few minutes to read them before asking stupid questions
The Biden Presidency will be seen as the most disastrous Presidency in American history. The consequences of the huge swing and miss of sanctions as a response to Ukraine are just beginning to unfold and will grow in the coming year. Had the sanctions weapon not been used the edifice belief in overwhelming Western economic power would have remained largely intact. Now it is completely broken and exposed and it is slowly dawning on the rest of the world.
Militarily it has long been apparent that America was overextended across the globe. However the image of technical superiority and belief in American invincibility once the US fully committed sustained a vast sense that it was always a mistake to cross Uncle Sam. Ukraine has completely destroyed this and all that remains are the thoroughly exposed men and women behind the curtain posturing like 5 year olds at the G7 and the NATO summit.
The whole world is seeing things from a perspective that has been obscured in the past by an avalanche of propaganda and think tank misinformation. US industrial capacity is hollowed out and European industrial capacity is rushing to follow. The changes we are seeing now will steadily gain momentum.
None of this was necessary but Biden wanted war and now the consequences are irrevocable for the US position in the world.
What failure.
EU-Russia – China trading axis broken ✓
Nord Stream dead ✓
EU buying expensive US has ✓
EU independence gone ✓
EU and US completely under US control ✓
Effective psych ops so public hates Russia ✓
Complete government control of MSM ✓
Destabilising Russian borders ✓
Forcing people off gas to electric cars to make tons of money and kill the A-rabs ✓
Rocking China ✓
Destabilising US ✓
Transfer of more wealth to 1% ✓
Killing off more humans to reduce population pressure ✓
Biden is doing great. He’s doing just what he was supposed to do.
Kelley:
You saved me a whole lot of typing and thinking as I enjoyed a glass of wine winding down for the evening.
For what it is worth to anyone, T(Q)itter blocked me from posting Prof. John Mearsheimer’s most recent lecture in Italy where he castigated the US and NATO for a stupid conflict, an strategic own goal in Ukraine.
https://www.eui.eu/news-hub?id=john-mearsheimers-lecture-on-the-causes-and-consequences-of-the-ukraine-war
There are few venues where “adults” can have an open and respectful conversation . I believe the patrons of these sites/sources must be vigilant in protecting free speech and thought.
economic disaster start to accelerate during covid era 2020 under trump , when fed print insane amount of money to prop dying US economy. Now in biden’s era the piper come collect the mess..
it is not fault of any president for the economic mess , but people behindmade it worse by pushing for ukraine adventure , because they afraid biden will CROAK before their dream in ukraine is realized..
now one need to understand the reason for sudden afghanistan pullout , any old hands knew this means US military will be refocused on different theatre
I agree re; Afghanistan withdrawal. The war is forever, but the enemy morphs.
Also agree that Trump – as much as I generally liked his policies – started the inflationary actions, but Biden piled on hard. Trump got stuck in a no-win situation with the alleged covid pandemic. Everyone in the swamp was forcing his hand. They all mobbed up on him. That was the beginning of the end for the US economy.
IMHO we should start thinking in terms of a captured government in Washington. Although Biden stole the election, the coup was a double one in that Biden is a Globalist, like Trudeau. And both leaders cooperate in degrading, “shrinking” their respective economies and health of their respective populations. One could also make an argument that the sanctions are being used to “shrink” Europe as well.
Note their attacks on domestic energy starting with the cancellations of pipeline projects. Sanctions and their blow backs also function in the same way.
That happened after JFK.
Long gone.
Too late, too late.
Last chance was last 2 years of Trump presidency. Can’t see an effective opposition.
They are not shrinking the economy, they are moving masses of money to the elite.
They will starve ye out then give food aid for which y’all will be grateful.
Get ready for please 2.
What exactly did Donald Trump do to STOP the situation in Luhansk and Donbass? He blew up Iranian General Qasem Soleimani; Trump is a coward, say what you like about Jan. 6. He did nothing to deter the military industrial fascist regime and NATO. Nothing.
He did nothing constructive re Ukrainie and was impeached trying to figure out what Biden did there.
My point though wasn’t what trump did, it was what deep state and media did to Trump.
It was just a matter of time
https://www.rt.com/news/558263-ukraine-western-weapons-darknet/
You don’t hear much anymore about Ukraine’s troops killing or maiming their Russian POWs. I suspect that in the early going the Ukrainians, told so by their overlords, thought they would easily win the war and that having “victor” status would protect them from Nuremberg style trials and such. Now of course they know better, no?
Or they just don’t film it and put it in the internet anymore. The Nazis are savage. I don’t think they change.
Not sure snake island has zero value. If by any chance Ukrainie takes it they are close to Russian fleet and can surveil better p, other side cpin it’s also close to NATO flight ops in EE
Russia obviously has eyes all round but snake island under Russia control so close to NATO states and flight path is probably unnerving some one at the top.
You don’t understand. If Ukraine puts anyone on that island they have no defense from Russian missiles. It is cheaper to Russia to fire missiles at Snake Island and kill Ukrainians than it is for Russia to have to resupply Snake Island with missiles every three or four days. Does that make sense?
Yup.
“Resupplying Snake Island was a logistical waste. Russia could have continued to funnel ammunition and missiles needed to operate air defense systems on the island.”
There’s nothing that island can do, that a warship couldn’t do better.
Super stoked they took out the pussies shelling civilians in Donestk! Happy Independence Day to Luhansk and Donbass!
Mr. Johnson, given recent additional provocations by Lithuania and Norway against Russia, plus others which we have yet to witness, do you not agree that war between Russia and NATO is almost unavoidable?
I wonder what the reaction would be in the U.S. if Russia sank an aircraft carrier. Do you think it would critically galvanize the population if many casualties were suffered? Recently Scott Ritter made the point that this would awaken the U.S. (I’m paraphrasing him.)
Russia is acting with patience and maturity. I am hopeful that Lithuania and Norway will be compelled to back down.
“Russia could have continued to funnel ammunition and missiles needed to operate air defense systems on the island. But that is a costly investment of resources”
This is what I believe. While this is unimportant strategically, it does illustrate a weakness in Russia’s military. Namely, they were not able to suppress artillery and missile attacks originating from Ukrainian territory. I get that counter-battery fire is now a thing of the past because modern artillery tactics involve moving after they fire. But this also means that Russia was not able to deploy drones to spot artillery preparing to attack Snake Island. If Russia was able to do this then it would have been to advantage to hold Snake Island to bait the Ukrainians into using artillery strikes and taking out their artillery.
Is this a fatal flaw? no but to me it looks like a hole in their operations.
No military force enjoys perfection and unlimited supplies. Generals have to make choices about where to deploy assets and how to employ those assets to achieve the goals of the military strategy. Russia could place a garrison on Snake Island and devote significant resources to combat the artillery and missile strikes. But to what end? What would that achieve in the context of demilitarization and denazification? Nothing. I’m not sure calling this a “weakness” is correct. I think it is a sound tactical move. Russia realizes it can make Snake Island unusable using far fewer resources and not putting its troops at risk.
I am not criticizing the move as the Russian commanders know what’s best to do given the current situation. I am just noting that the Russians were unable to destroy the artillery used to strike the island. I bet the Russians are evaluating their own performance to see what they need to improve. I am thinking that counter-battery fire is a lost cause because it is too easy to avoid (move after you fire). The future is in using drones to spot the artillery before they fire.
I know that Russia has drones but can an army have too many drones? 🙂
All modern armies should be rapidly developing and testing drones. As a SW guy, I love drones. I see endless possibility with upgrading them because of the availability of cheap cameras and massive processing power.