I try to monitor Western media as one measure of how Russia’s war with the West is progressing. It is again a case of the dog that did not bark. The breathless, wall-to-wall reports that dominated cable news during the first two weeks of Russia’s “Special Military Operation” are gone. Instead, the media is only giving spot updates wrapped in continued hysteria about the bad and evil the Russians. But it is not producing popular support in America for getting involved in another foreign war.
Here are some of the latest headlines:
REUTERS–Russia says its forces clear most of Mariupol, strike Kyiv suburb
- Explosions hit Kyiv in north, Lviv in west
- Ukraine says situation in Mariupol ‘very difficult’
- Russia offers to spare lives of Mariupol defenders who lay down arms
FOX NEWS–Mariupol warns Russia is preparing to shut down city to ‘filter’ all men for forced service, labor
- Advisor to the Mariupol city mayor warned Saturday that Russian troops are preparing to shut down the city by April 18 and will “filter” all men for forced service, labor or “isolation.”
- “Occupiers report that on Monday they will not only finally close all entries and exits to the city for everyone, but will institute a ban on movement across all neighborhoods for a week. During this time, 100% of the city’s remaining male population will be “filtered’,” Petro Andriushchenko said in a Telegram post translated by Ukrainian news outlet Ukrayinska Pravda.
CNN–Russia orders Ukrainian forces in Mariupol to surrender by Sunday morning
- Russia has demanded Ukrainian forces still fighting to defend the besieged city of Mariupol lay down their weapons. The apparent ultimatum comes as Russia continues its relentless and devastating attack on the southeastern city.
- Russian state media Ria reported that “without exception” all “Ukrainian armed units and foreign mercenaries” must exit from 6:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Moscow time (same as local time) “without any weapons and ammunition,” citing the Russian Defense Ministry.
Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence (a true oxymoron) continues to demonstrate pure incompetence and stupidity. Consider this “headline” from CNN–US assesses Putin may increase efforts to interfere with US elections. Here is the analytical bottom-line:
A US official made clear the assessments were not based on direct intelligence.
“We do not have any direct intelligence that Russia is looking to target state, local, or election systems more directly than before, but we are certainly anticipating the possibility. We will continue to actively share any intelligence about increased threats with state and local officials as we receive it,” the official told CNN.
Got that? All they have is an opinion not based on one damn fact or piece of intelligence. The pathetic U.S. Intelligence Community does not understand Vladimir Putin but that does not stop them from offering up banalities like this:
The intelligence community has made understanding Putin’s mindset a priority since early in the invasion, sources familiar with internal deliberations told CNN. Raw assessments have pointed to his increasingly unpredictable behavior, and US officials believe Putin is more willing to consider taking risks due to his anger over Russia’s failures in Ukraine – something his advisers, who officials say have not been telling him the full truth, did not prepare him for.
What truth is being held from Putin? The success in Mariupol? The successful missile strikes peppering key military and fuel sites across the breadth of Ukraine?
Despite U.S. and NATO stubbornly insisting that the Russian military is a clown show incapable of fighting competently, you only need to note that Russian military units, missiles and aircraft are moving freely around Ukraine. Take a look at the following video that shows a Russian field kitchen and laundry. Maybe this is just a sophisticated piece of propaganda, but if it is legit then it shows a capability not widely available in the U.S. Army. We have become accustomed to setting up static bases, mess halls and laundromats overseas that hire 3rd world folk to cook our food and wash our dirty underwear. Take note of what the Russian soldiers do when they enter the mess trailer (they remove their cover and hang it on a wall). This is not a picture of untrained conscripts grudgingly being thrown into battle.
Russian media sites are now filled with videos of thousands of Ukrainian military personnel surrendering and leaving behind large caches of NATO supplied weapons. There also are photos of the passports of two U.S. citizens who were part of Ukrainian units fighting the Russians. It is not clear if these men are captured or dead. The Russians claim they have captured a large number of Western mercenaries in Mariupol and their fate is not sunny. Because the Russians do not consider them legitimate combatants they will not be treated according to the Geneva Convention. (Sounds like the Russians are going to treat them like the despicable U.S. Department of Justice has treated the so-called January 6th insurrectionists.)
Unlike Ukraine, Russia does not seem to have a problem sending more vehicles to the fight:
Here is video of Russian truck and tank columns moving around Kharkov. Where are the videos of the Ukrainian forces attacking and destroying these columns? Do you doubt for a minute that Ukraine would be sharing such material widely if it existed? That is the dog that is not barking. Russia is surrounding and ready to destroy the fragmented Ukrainian Army. Unlike Mariupol, most of these battles will be in open country where the Ukrainians will have little protection from drones, bombers and artillery. Tanks and troops will do the clean up once strongpoints are eliminated.
Finally, take a look at the British assessment of the situation on the ground in Ukraine.
Pay attention to the gold and black shaded areas. These are the locations where the Ukrainian Army in the east is located and where Russia will attempt to encircle and destroy. Unless Ukraine is able to send columns of tanks and trucks to the east to resupply the beleaguered forces, the Ukrainian Army may be eliminated by the end of May.
Thanks for the regular posts Larry. Your detailed explanations are excellent.
appreciate your refreshingly accurate and honest commentary sir.
Outstanding intel Larry. You are the Go-to source for credible information
You are obviously well-informed. I also like your style of writing. Kudos!
A refreshing source among all the dishonest media that repeats the same time and again.
a) LJ , whats your opinion on the existence of NATO officers in mariupol azovtal complex ? if true and they are captured what do you think the west will do when russia show them publicly as NATO involvement in ukraine military and their role in US biolab operations on ukraine proper ?
b) Do you personally suspect Poland / NATO will enter ukraine lvov as peacekeeper role ? will russia bomb any NATO forces entering ukraine ?
There is photographic and video evidence of two Brits and two Americans captured or killed. I suspect there are more. However, I doubt there are any active duty NATO military personnel. But I could be wrong.
If Poland or NATO enters Ukraine territory they will be attacked and destroyed. That is a firm red line for Russia. I hope cooler heads prevail in NATO.
Wow – very solid analysis overall. I am very impressed by your credentials and experience which is so refreshing from the mainstream bubble. I can’t help but ask a couple questions about a minor point that might need tightening up.
A) What is the date of the video of those Russian convoy movements? That one looks a lot like one I saw in early March – which would be the initial force and not reinforcements.
B) What are your thoughts on the sinking of the Slava-class cruiser Moskva, which U.S. intel confirmed was due to Ukrainian Neptun missiles? Even if Ukrainian regular forces are tied down in some areas, it still demonstrates an ability to inflict painful losses on Russian forces.
I’m not sure of the date. What is certain is we are not seeing convoys of Ukrainian forces moving around the contested areas.
Re the sinking of the Moskva. It is meaningless to the strategic picture. It was an old ship and had not been modernized. So, yes, Ukraine still has the ability to inflict some limited damage in limited areas. But Russia controls the coast along the Black Sea with a combination of ground forces and naval blockade (and mines). To draw a parallel with WW II. If you look at the enormous damage Germany inflicted on US and British merchant ships it still did not change the outcome of the War. It would be a different situation if Ukraine was mounting such attacks on a daily basis. That would really call into question the success of Russia’s military operation. One lost ship in 60 days does not mean alot.
Makes sense – You may want to make an update to your article though, since you can’t necessarily claim those are reinforcements since we don’t know the date of the video. It could strike some as irresponsible and give them the wrong impression of your excellent site.
I see the point about the overall strategic picture, but like you’ve been pointing out, Russia’s military is extraordinarily powerful and capable unlike what the MSM garbage has been claiming. They wouldn’t just leave their Black Sea Fleet rusting from the Cold War.
What about those pointing out the Moskva was modernized, with electronic warfare suites, decoy systems, and CIWS. It underwent a refit beginning in 2016 that continued 2018-2020, which OSINT and UK MOD have confirmed.
They also point out a successful attack on a modernized warship with a layered air defense system is a significant achievement for Ukraine’s domestically developed anti-ship missile.
The overall picture may be the same, but what you mention seems to downplay that this appears to be a significant and somewhat embarrassing loss for Russia. Russia had just three Slava-class cruisers total, down to two now. The ship can’t be replaced as Russia has no plans on building more large cruiser-type ships. Moskva was also important for fleet air defenses, with its loss potentially making more ships vulnerable to missile attacks.
And this would be the second large Russian surface ship lost to date – the Alligator-class LST sunk pierside.
Please explain to me how this changes the strategic picture?
Like I said, I see the point that this does not change the strategic picture.
But that doesn’t mean this isn’t a significant and somewhat embarrassing loss of a modernized Russian warship that they can’t replace anytime soon.
I hope you will seriously consider editing your article to note that your footage might not in fact show reinforcements and is of an unknown date, as well as include listed sources below each video.
We don’t need to give MSM any more ammunition as they try to discredit anything not fitting the PSYOP. As is, it could strike some as irresponsible. As many people as possible need to be reached with the TRUTH.
do you have any evidence to show it is from another day?
And please explain why this is “significant”?
“The Russians claim they have captured a large number of Western mercenaries in Mariupol and their fate is not sunny. Because the Russians do not consider them legitimate combatants they will not be treated according to the Geneva Convention. (Sounds like the Russians are going to treat them like the despicable U.S. Department of Justice has treated the so-called January 6th insurrectionists.)”
A million thanks for putting a serious dent in US propaganda and allowing us to consider a different scenario. I have been reading Strategic Culture .org since even before the Kagan/Nuland coup d’etat, and have read coverage of the war since it began with the Maiden coup. The war has been going on since 2014, allowing Hunter Biden a shoe in from daddy, and a salary to prop up his crystal meth addiction.
My question to you is, in the universe of the Old Testament ruled by “an eye for an eye”, perhaps the Russians should treat their captives the same way Russian prisoners were treated: that is tortured then shot piece by piece until death by Ukrainian Nazis ?????
Nuland’s husband, Robert Kagan, is a historian, foreign policy commentator at the Brookings Institution, and co-founder in 1998 of the neoconservative Project for the New American Century (PNAC). (Wikipedia).
How about a thought for two heros: one is dying a slow death in England’s modern day Tower, Julian Assange; the other is being held captive by evil Vlad…lol! Edward Snowden?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Rl82OQDoOc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfvFpT-iypw
https://ips-dc.org/the_cias_worst-kept_secret_newly_declassified_files_confirm_united_states_collaboration_with_nazis/
Sincere thanks for your work sir. Coming over from Patrick Armstrong’s commentary. Are they accusing you of treason yet? Like they are attempting to do to Patrick?
I’m accused of being a “Putin” lover.
Thanks for the words of support. If Russia chooses not to follow the Old Testament path it will blow a further hole in the malevolent mythology the West is pushing re Russia and Putin. When Russia acts humanely and honestly it will further enrage the US and NATO. The West wants a victim and Russia is refusing to accept that role.
World War Two is still raging. Vive la resistance!