The cards keep falling Russia’s way so far as it moves west to consolidate territory and the United States and some key members of the European Union backed away from sanctioning Russia’s oil sales.
Let’s start with the latest photographic evidence that Russia is pushing the Ukrainians out of territory inhabited by a pro-Russia from Mariupol towards taking control of Kharkov. The Russian flag was hoisted over the town square of Nova Kakhovka–they are headed for Kherson. This map will help orient you.
Nova Kakhovka sits 356km (221 miles) west of Mariupol. No savage battle fought to secure this city and the Russian flag flies over the town square.
Major General Rustam Minnekaev, the Deputy Commander of the Central Militaray District, made some news today in a speech to the annual meeting of the Union of Defense Industries. He said that, “control over the south of Ukraine will give the Russian armed forces one more outlet to Transnistria, where there are facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.”
The folks at the Institute for the Study of War apparently have not seen this photo. They made this absurd claim today:
Even if Russian forces did seek to resume major offensive operations toward Mykolaiv and on to Odesa, they are highly unlikely to have the capability to do so.
Mykolaiv is 140 km (87 miles) west of Nova Kakhovka. Russia absolutely is moving that direction and western analysts would be well advised to accept this claim as genuine.
Beyond identifying taking control of the southern coast of Ukraine and opening a corridor to southern Moldova as a key objective, General Minnekaev reaffirmed the importance of the mission in Donbas:
“Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation (it has already begun, literally two days ago), one of the tasks of the Russian army has been to establish complete control over the Donbass and southern Ukraine,” .
This is not a rogue officer doing punditry. His speech had the blessing of his chain of command. Otherwise his career as a General would be ended quickly if he was divulging state secrets.
The Russians also raised their flag in Kherson in late February, although there are still Ukrainians fighting as guerrillas instead of an organized military force. What you need to understand is that the Russians are not sitting on their haunches waiting. They are moving steadily to the west towards southern Moldova and control Ukraine’s seacoast via naval and ground forces.
Six hundred kilometers northeast of Nova Kakhovka sits the key city of Kharkiv. And 90 kilometers southeast of Kharkiv is the city of Balakliya. Here’s the map to help you get your bearings:
Russia scored a major coup there this week with the capture of an enormous underground weapons depot and has cut the road to Kharkiv. The following picture and video tells the story:
Here is Intel Slava Z’s report on the capture of the arsenal:
Specialists of the engineering troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation took control of the arsenal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with an area of several hundred hectares and warehouses with thousands of tons of ammunition in the Kharkiv region
The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine left an arsenal with a large amount of ammunition for cannon artillery, mortars and multiple launch rocket systems, air defense weapons.
In addition to Soviet-made ammunition, mines and Western-made shells were stored in the bunkers. (I corrected the English translation in this sentence–LJ)
This is a substantial seizure and it does not appear that the Ukrainians put up much of a fight to defend this massive store of weapons.
Before turning to the oil debacle, I offer you the opportunity to view a video posted by members of the AZOV battalion of their wounded in a room underneath the steel plant in Azovstal. (WARNING–it is graphic).
This is field medicine at its worst. The men are in unsanitary conditions. Besides the terrible wounds they also are battling infection and sepsis. These souls are in no condition to take the fight to the Russians. By contrast, a wounded Russian soldier is carted off to a field hospital on par with what is available to wounded U.S. troops in a combat zone. Failing to provide proper medical care for wounded warriors is a morale killer for any military force regardless of nationality.
Now to the sanctions debacle. You should check out Andrei Martyanov’s justified belly laugh over the absurdities of the reaction of the United States and the Europeans at the G20 to calls for an embargo on Russian oil:
During my days at CIA we called a comment like this, “No Shit” analysis. It is right up there with, “If you put your hand in the fire you’ll get burned.” Duh!! The German role in this clown show is particularly hilarious. They are going to stop importing Russian oil by years end. Honest to God. But guess what? THEY ARE STILL IMPORTING RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS AND PAYING RUBLES. If Germany goes for an alternative source eventually (remains to be seen if they can pull this off), it means they will be paying a higher price. Higher price for fuel in Germany will reverberate throughout the German economy and will tick up prices in the rest of Europe.
There is no magic oil genie or Jed Clampett in wings that is going to produce a new, cheaper source of that will suddenly pump out a bounty of petroleum at a lower price. (For those not familiar with Jed Clampett, he was a Hillbilly from the Ozarks who fired a gun into the ground and up came a load of “bubbling crude”. He and his family are icons of pop culture as the Beverly Hillbillies.) Europe is acting more like a meth addict who is vowing to quit the drug in 8 months but still wants his fix today. Good luck with that.
There is no economy in the history of the world that grows and prospers while having to pay higher prices for oil. Those costs are not confined to just the oil industry. Anything made with oil or transported by oil based products will increase in price as well. That is called inflation. I seem to recall that the Weimar Republic in Germany had a go at inflation 100 years ago and that did not work out well for either Germany or the world.
Instead of statesmanship and diplomacy, the United States, Canada and Europe are acting like spoiled children angry at not getting what they want out of Russia. Rather than accept the reality that Russia is better positioned than any of the so-called First World nations to operate a self-supporting economy that can produce food and technology, the west persists in its delusion that it is pushing Russia to the brink of collapse. Psychiatrists have a term for this mental state–it is called PROJECTION. Look it up.
Great Post. I think you are right on just about everything.
Since you are a historian, you probably just glossed over it for brevity, but the Weimar hyperinflation was caused by the treaty of Versailles, the Banks of England and France coupled with the German Government’s labor unions’ indexed wages. The Weimar was more of a victim than perpetrator.
https://www.businessinsider.com/weimar-germany-hyperinflation-explained-2013-9
Great stuff.
I suspect the Germans somehow want to trade buying Russian oil again for something in a Minsk 3 that would once again bail the Ukrainian army trapped in Donbas.
But the appalling record of France and Germany in guaranteeing Minsk 1&2 make a Minsk 3 quite unnegotiable. No one but Russia has any credibility.
Unsurpassed analysis as ever!
Your “spoiled children comment” reminds me of the Violet character in Rachmal Compton’s “Just William” stories for children from the 1930s. They used to be big in the UK, probably did not make it to the US. Anyway, this character used to say with a lisp: “I will scream and scream until I am sick. And I can.”
Exactly the sort of thing I can even imagine Boris Johnson saying too. He has the right accent for it.
Thank you, jeez…you are just too good .
So far all my observations of the Russian SMO show that Russian forces are disciplined, professionals and well trained.
The outcome of this operation was never in doubt while western “analysts” seem to be living in a fantasy world enabled by the captive western press.
Between you, Andrei and Bernard at Moon of Alabama I have confidence in what I am reading. Meanwhile you need hip boots to wade through the BS spewed by Washington.
The regretful part of this is all the unnecessary death and destruction. The Ukrainian leadership [Washington] is deliberately sacrificing their own people, for what? To cover up the crimes and corruption by western “elites” using Ukraine as a hib of money laundering, human trafficking , grift, illegal bioweapons?
Its hard to feel sorry for the Azov Nazis but not allowing them an honorable surrender instead leaving to suffer and die like that is pure criminality. I am mystified as to the purpose of that. It serves no obvious purpose. What are they trying to hide here?
Larry, we should also keep in mind that central bank excess printing of currencies is a main (actually classic definition) of inflation and Washington and the EU are also using supply line problems, including oil, and using covid mandates, as a cover for their own fiscal malfeasance behaviors. The Ukrainian War is obviously another “cause” of the growing currencies problems. This process has been going on for decades but really gathered way in 2008. This is all part of the global monetary crisis and there is a causal relationship with most governance in the West.
FWIW,
L.
Great read.
One thing that worries me is that the Biden admin, UK etc can’t afford to lose this war, proxy or otherwise.
Losing this war changes the balance of power and humiliates the neo cons. I just can’t see them letting this continue because it’s the end of them if it does. False flag, troops, chem attack, something will surely happen soon. West has to win before winter. The powers that be have games this war. I still feel we are not seeing the full picture. Why are the CIA and Dems so desperately and hugely invested in Ukraine?
If Russia wins, it creates a stronger multi polar world and undermines US soft power, schools NATO on war, discredits and humiliates CIA and Dems and neo cons etc.
On economics. I think sanctions are hurting Russia. It can hold on in short possibly medium term but the cost of war combined with the sanctions is hurting them. The question is whether it hurts Europe more. Who breaks first. And how much will China and India help Russia economically.
which part of sanction hurt russia exactly ? the ban of netflix and pornhub ? with china and the world behind russia there wont be any hurt to russia , which explain the insane childish demands to nations all over the world to kowtow to US demands.
Russia already won , in the SMO and economic front , as larry said they are rich in resources and already been sanctioned since 2014 so they grew independent nowadays especially with economic giant china backing them.
the west already lost the war , all they need to do now is to create another narrative that they won. If you wean yourself from western propaganda media you will see this easy
It is not true to say sanctions don’t hurt Russia. Ofcourse they do. It is pure fiction to imagine sanctions don’t hurt.
Yes the sanctions have not collapsed the Russian economy, but ofcourse they have hurt it, job losses, income losses, transaction limitations, frozen assets, even the head of Russian Central Bank admits this.
That Russia survived these sanctions is due to
1. West and others still buying oil and gas
2. Years of preparation for such sanctions those Bank of International Settlement following sanctions was a world first and not expected by anyone
3. Current reserves which are depleting
4. Use of Chinese systems such as CIS but these are limited
5. Little Support from Asian, South American and African countries for sanctions
Don’t be fooled by ruble exchange rate recovery, that like many exchange rates is also a product of CB action and the above.
Sanctions were not a death blow to Russia but they are hurting Russia and other countries.
Russia is taking Euros for gas, converting those Euros at very favorable (for Gazprombank that is), flipping those Euros for gold, and laughing all the way to the bank.
Summer is coming, Europe might squeak by at a vastly reduced industrial capacity but come November, those will be the conditions that collapse governments.
As the saying goes, what doesn’t kill me makes me stronger. The hurt is minor, short lived and expected.
They keep applying US standards to Russia. Sanctions like this collapse the US and European economies and I think this will be the end result.
The west needs Russia way more than Russia needs the west, that is indisputable.
The evidence for this is the US has been trying to get control of Russian resources since the fall of the Soviet Union. This is why they hate Putin. He is looking after Russian interests he cannot be bought.
This drives the western elites and the globalists crazy. They are used to being in charge, used to being able to strip mine other countries for resources and give nothing in return.
Putin derailed all of this and they will stop at nothing to destroy him.
I think what was done economically with sanctions was unprecedented. Therefore I don’t think anyone knows what will happen.
Russia has prepared well and mitigated. But it’s a very difficult situation world wide now.
My army experience is limited to drop out of tank mechanic in Canada. But I did finance after and worked in London for years.
An example of how tough this is is e.g. Russia is Kenya’s serving largest tea buyer. And Kenya is the world’s largest black tea producer. Kenya has not applied sanctions. But it can’t find shipping companies to transport the tea and buy wheat and fertilizer.
Therefore trade between two willing countries, Kenya and Russia has huge problems as sanctions hit cargo companies.
How this will play out is very unpredictable. Cargo transport is a huge problem now as companies fear the US sanctions.
I think overall it was a bad move by the US to push sanctions to this extreme but in the absence of alternatives there has not been a big shift to de dollarization.
China could change that. But nothing is quick.
Note also US is not just censoring Russia related media. They contacts a Star newspaper columnist in Kenya who wrote critically though fairly about US and West fault in Ukraine war and the board got calls threatening them financially. The columnist Kaur was told to stop writing about Russia Ukraine as it was ‘controversial’. The columnist quit.
So a columnist in Kenyas 3rd largest paper was censored over the Ukrainie war and not allowed to write about the Russian position. The extent to which the West is obsessed with aggressively controlling the narrative on Ukrainie war is staggering.
so
this is why they hated trump so much , the neocons lost years due to trump refusing to do what biden did. and in the rush to do this insane provocation they pull out from afghanistan so suddenly , prematurelu initiate khazasktan and belarus regime change ..
it would be harder for russia if belarus and khazakthan were taken by the west , alas the west lost those 2 key pawns and thus the house of cards crumbles
Trump supplied more weapons and money to Ukrainie than Obama
They took advantage of Trumps inability to comprehend just how deep the swamp is. Trump as a corporate CEO expected his orders to be followed and his subordinates to tell him the truth.
I imagine the truth was quite the shock. I expect the “revenge tour ” to go differently.
Hi Larry,
First I want to thank you for your superb analysis of the situation in the battle field. I saw this video about Elon Musk’s star line
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OBm6CTUbxk0
Is there any truth to it in your opinion.
Thanks
Not much. If Russia wants to shutdown Ukraine’s internet they only need to turn off the power. But they have not. Even more important is that the Pentagon is acknowledging the Ukrainian internet is still functioning. Great!. Where are the videos from cell phones of defeated Russian columns and mounds of dead soldiers? Doesn’t exist. Yet the Ukrainians have the means to film such events if they existed. Just a distraction.
Mr. Larry Johnson thank you for the clarification, for a minute I thought Elon Musk is the greatest genious the world has produced that can fool the Russian scientists who I think are way ahead of our woke generation of scientists. What a pity that the most advanced and enlightened University system in the world is producing mediocracies. Sometimes I wonder if our country has any future with such a corrupt system of education and governance. God help us all. Thanks again