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Putting the War in Ukraine in Context

27 May 2022 by Larry Johnson 33 Comments

Western media, pundits and politicians grudgingly are coming to grips that Russia is winning the ground in Ukraine and defeating the Ukrainian Army. Still, they are bending over backwards to perpetuate the illusion that Ukraine still has a fighting chance if only they get a super game changing weapon. Let me take you on a tour of representative media accounts of the conflict so that you can savor the flavor of coverage. First up, CNN:

The US Defense Department maintained during a press briefing Friday that Russia is continuing to make “incremental gains” in Donbas. 

Russian forces are intensifying their bombardment of areas in eastern Ukraine still under Ukrainian control. Ukrainian officials in the east admit their defenses are outmanned and outgunned.

MSNBC is ignoring Ukraine completely. It does offer a section titled, Ukraine: Freedom or Death, but it is populated with videos made more than a month ago.

FOX NEWS echoes the CNN meme of “incremental progress”:

Russia-backed separatists claimed they captured a railway hub city in eastern Ukraine as Moscow’s forces strived to gain more ground Friday by pounding another Ukrainian-held area where authorities say 1,500 people have died since the start of the war.

With Russia’s offensive in Ukraine’s industrial Donbas region showing incremental progress, Ukrainian officials characterized the battle there in grave terms and renewed their appeals for more sophisticated Western-supplied weaponry.

Ukraine’s foreign minister pleaded for “weapons, weapons and weapons again,” warning that without a new injection of foreign arms, Ukrainian forces would not be able to stop Russia’s advance on the east.

The Washington Post is focused on a CNN report that Biden is going to send long range missiles to Ukraine:

The Biden administration is preparing to send advanced long-range rocket systems to Ukraine as the country suffers losses in the east from advancing Russian forces, said U.S. administration officials and congressional staffers. . . .

The rocket system has been a top request from Ukrainian officials who say it is necessary to curb the advance of Russian forces, which claimed full control of the strategic eastern city of Lyman on Friday, handing Moscow another victory in its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. CNN first reported on U.S. preparations to send the system.

The New York Times is leading the chorus in claiming that Russia has been beaten back and has to go for sloppy seconds in the Donbas:

After failing to topple Ukraine’s government in Kyiv, Russia redeployed troops for a far less ambitious goal: Seize the rest of the Donbas, beyond the area where Russia had already advanced a month ago.

Russia’s military has overwhelming superiority in weapons, if not men — tanks, warplanes, helicopters and heavy artillery. But a month into the battle for the East, Russia has made only gradual progress along the Eastern front.

Again and again, Russia’s military has had to accept the difficult reality that it doesn’t have the force necessary to fight in too many places at once.

The area with the most critical battles is only 75 miles wide and includes three key cities: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Sievierodonetsk.

So, let me put this into context. Russia is fighting across a broad front and is taking on Urkrainian troops crouching in heavily fortified trenches and bunkers. Since the start of the “Special Military Operation” aka invasion on February 24th, Russia has taken most of the southern coast of Ukraine. The battle for Mariupol stands as the most consequential urban battle of the 21st century. At the same time, Russia and the militias of the Republics of Donetsk and Luhnask are nearing the complete defeat of Ukrainian forces based in the Donbas.

Besides Mariupol, Russia has taken control of major cities in the Donbas and adjacent regions, such as Vasilevka in the Zaporozhye region, Kherson, Lyman, Popasna. Russia now has surrounded Sievierodonetsk and trapped several thousand Ukrainian troops. My point? Russia has accomplished this against well armed, NATO trained forces fighting from defensive positions. The Ukrainians had artillery and some drones/missiles. Russia has achieved all of this in less than two months.

So here is a comparison. Look what the United States did in Vietnam and Iraq fighting against forces that were not as well trained or well armed as the Ukrainians:

The Battle of Huế–7 battalions of the U.S. Army and Marine Corps, accompanied by 11 South Vietnamese battalions, fought for more than a month to recapture Huế, the ancient imperial capital city of Vietnam, following the Viet Cong Tet Offensive in January 1968.

The Second Battle of Fallujah–Twelve thousand five hundred Marines plus 850 British troops fought for more than a month (November 7 to December 23, 2004) to capture and secure Fallujah, Iraq from Iraqi Islamic insurgents.

The Viet Cong and the Iraqi Insurgents did not have javelins, Stingers, artillery, drones and heavily fortified positions (i.e., reinforced concrete built up over the last 8 years) like Ukrainian troops. This is not Russian cheerleading to acknowledge that Russian troops, with the support of the LPR and DPR militias, have made remarkable and substantive progress on the ground and that Ukraine has lost effective control of the Donbas (not to mention its southern coastline).

Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. jimmywalter says

    27 May 2022 at 22:05

    Thank you for another great post. As I am sure you remember, in Fallujah, the US used, internationally illegal in civilian areas, phosphorus bombs, a war crime. The pictures of the woman and children horribly burned by these cruel weapons revolted me. Compare this to the methods used by the Russians.
    I am also fatalistically amused by the beat-them-to-the-punch war crimes trials by the UkranoNazis where they have a handful of Russian soldiers on trial for war crimes. Shamefully, I admit I am awaiting the vast Nazis’ war crimes trials.

    Reply
    • James Owen says

      28 May 2022 at 08:35

      “Shamefully, I admit I am awaiting the vast Nazis’ war crimes trials.”

      Nothing shameful about it. I’m interested in what the U.S./U.K. reaction to the trials will be. I predict that they’ll either be tota

      Reply
      • James Owen says

        28 May 2022 at 08:37

        totally silent on the matter, or spin it into more anti-Russian agitprop.

        Reply
  2. Sam McGowan says

    27 May 2022 at 22:24

    The media saw the handwriting on the wall sometime ago. I don’t watch cable news and don’t keep up with CNN, MSNBC, FOX etc. and don’t watch broadcast news either. But I do read online magazines and noticed that some that were really trumpeting Ukraine successes a couple of months ago now hardly refer to the war at all. MSN hardly mentions what’s actually taking place in the war at all, it’s just political stuff, often not even related.

    Reply
    • James Owen says

      28 May 2022 at 08:45

      WBAP News/Talk Radio, out of Dallas/Fort Worth, has been saying for weeks that they’re the place to hear the latest on the “Russia-Ukraine War.” This week, they haven’t said it. And the local program hosts have only been talking about DFW news, and Beto O’Rourke and the Uvalde school shooting. No mention of Ukraine, even in passing.

      Reply
  3. Murali says

    27 May 2022 at 22:56

    Thank you Mr. Johnson for your thoughtful analysis of the situation in Ukraine. I was reading the post in Turcopolier website, they make it look like the Russians are taking a beating (I mean even the commentators with the military background). I really can’t believe if the Russians are taking such a beating how are they able to take so many towns, the last one being Liman. Incredible. Thank you again

    Reply
    • buntalanlucu says

      28 May 2022 at 13:33

      Pat Lang from SST ran an IO supporting pro ukrop propaganda. Turcopelier is neocon propaganda site ran by TTG and Pat Lang , it is using britih Tabloid as information source and constantly post lies from ukraine sources.

      they block larry johnson and patrick armstrong from posting articles on their site when they started their IO

      it is a controlled opposition site , pretending to anti neocon but in reality it is owned by neocon warmonger

      Reply
  4. Skorpion9mm says

    27 May 2022 at 23:30

    I echo the thanks for your excellent reporting.
    The US/UK media are an embarrassment. In the future entire journalism classes will be devoted to these failures.
    Reminds me of the old saying “if you cannot contribute anything else you can always serve as a bad example.”

    Reply
    • Larry Johnson says

      27 May 2022 at 23:59

      I appreciate the kudos. I’m committed to telling truth as I know it.

      Reply
  5. Groucho says

    28 May 2022 at 01:22

    Is there any country where the media is not the propaganda arm of the state these days? The transparent media lies amd stupidity have reached epic proportions to promote globalist agendas like covid, climate, all the divide and rule garbage and Ukraine good Russia bad. It’s going to be fascinating to watch the narratives fall apart as the truth eventually comes out. Unfortunately as the globalists get more desperate, more distractions, war and tyranny will be coming our way to keep alive the Davos wet dream of 1 world dystopian government. So cue up the theme music to the Twilight Zone as we live through these interesting times.

    Reply
  6. buntalanlucu says

    28 May 2022 at 04:27

    In this war / SMO we see a never.before.seen media propanda war from the west and their irongrip control to block information from non western media. This will get worse in the near future especially with social media controlled by the western corporations.

    pretty sure nations all over the world large and small saw how western countries tried to control information and these nations will seek alternatives so not to be “turned off” by western controlled “kill switch”. EU is a lost cause , their internet infrastructure totally controlled by american companies , one kil switch and the whole europe goes dark.

    And larry thanks for bringing up Hue and Fallujah , especially fallujah in which US forces outnumber the insurgents like 10x and have total UAV/UCAV/armor/airpower , still the allied forces took massive casualties KIA and WIA..

    Reply
    • dftbs says

      28 May 2022 at 08:57

      Great observation with regards to the “ferocity” of the Western information war. The narrative construction, or fantasy world, spun out by the West is so egregious in its falsehood that it does more harm to the West’s own strategic position.

      First, the Western perception of their dominant information war capabilities is clearly false. Outside of the 15% of the world known as “the West”, this narrative of unprovoked Russian aggression and Russian military incompetence has little to no traction. All that propaganda capability has yielded no results as much of the world ignores Western calls to turn on Russia and stays neutral.

      That propaganda machine is really just turned inward. I suppose it’s meant to create compliance amongst Western populations. But the truth is that Western populations are already sedate and compliant. If anything the overwhelming falsehoods spewed out are so glaring that they push people out of the narrative bubble. Many comments here are from people that couldn’t square the contradictions in the narrative and sought out truthful analysis.

      Finally, the headlines from the MSM indicate some level of belief in the constructed narrative. Not just from the media stenographers but from their sources in positions of military and government power. If our strategy makers are constructing our strategy based on the prejudices of our propaganda, then we are truly effed. And judging by the material results of our efforts that’s what’s happening. It may be the biggest casualty of the West’s information war is the West itself.

      Reply
      • Malik says

        28 May 2022 at 13:10

        Very well said I believe that the information war has backfired also in the sense that it will make public more skeptical than ever, especially this Mother of All Disasters. The reverberations of his imperial ac of arrogance and stupidity by these Rhodes Scholars and Ivy League twerps will be felt for years, decades not just political cycles.

        There will be no way for the MSM to spin impeachment proceedings and congressional hearings. We can catch that live on C-span. So the hubris of the Elites has hoisted them on their own petard.

        Grab your popcorn, the “ferocity” of the hearings in 2024 will resuscitate cable news ratings, talking about bittersweet irony. lol

        Reply
        • Malik says

          28 May 2022 at 13:12

          Does anybody think we should be defending Taiwan after this debacle? Why would Taiwan even trust the US? We can’t even withdraw from a country with months of planning effectively.

          Reply
          • buntalanlucu says

            28 May 2022 at 13:28

            yes , US should defend taiwan with full commitment , taiwan is US territory right ?

            /s

  7. buntalanlucu says

    28 May 2022 at 04:35

    The BrOSINT ukrop propaganda sites on twitter still posting nonsense and using “words” “semantics” to cover up massive ukrop field losses. The insane copium in their comment section so bad it become like hitler bunker’s chat during the last days.

    even those who should know better still hanging on the propaganda , in a display of dishonesty and shamelessness , never mind they posted endless “russia ran away from heroic ukrop” , “russia ran out of fuel/ammo/food” , “russia can only fight for 14 days” , etc etc..

    worst hypocrites and sellout and perpetrator of disgusting IO still SST and pat lang / TTG , even now they still posting nonsense

    Reply
  8. Deymoond says

    28 May 2022 at 05:24

    Larry, enhorabuena, fantástico artículo.
    ¿Puedo pedirte algo?
    Ahondando en la historia: ¿Qué opinión te merece este artículo.?
    ¿Lo ha leído?
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

    Reply
  9. OscarDeCaracas says

    28 May 2022 at 06:33

    Mr. Johnson It’s true that Russia is fighting every day to “foreigners” against Ukrainian troops?

    Reply
  10. M Droy says

    28 May 2022 at 09:03

    The Ukrainian request for long distance missiles is essentially an indication that they will withdraw from the Donbas (perhaps completely to E Ukraine, I won’t speculate) and fight long distance.
    Of course it is a fight that W Ukraine is entirely unprepared to fight, but perhaps they think they can sign Minsk 3 and then go on to shell civilians from a new line of contact with no one saying anything.

    Reply
  11. Ramon says

    28 May 2022 at 09:20

    The media made Russia sound incompetent. Sure they made terrible mistakes and endured heavy losses. Without NATO interference the war would have been over in 4 days. I learned a lot from this war and gained respect for the Russian army.
    I didn’t believe a conventional war could be fought these days. Modern weapons are so good and lightweight that fighting is almost impossible for ground troops. Tanks, helicopters and fighter jets are easily destroyed. To make things worse for groundtroops, drones. Russia advancing is a difficult task on its own.
    Ukraine is sitting in trenches and hiding in bushes. That’s a lot easier then attacking. Everywhere can be a Javalin waiting taking out your tank. You need reconnaissance support all the time along with constant air defence against drones.
    Here Russia is lacking with drones. They are not so technological advanced and due corruption they cost more than US counterparts. Not having drones is hurting Russia.

    My strategy was reign terror from the sky. Always have lots of drones for surveillance and bombers fly over Ukraine. Make them feel never safe, it destroys their moral to fight. After retreating from Irpin I see Urkainian troops riding the road, my thought we be drones and kill them. SI see sodliers walking in Kiev, bomb them. Cheap drones, war is a numbers game. Here Ukraine has the edge with NATO support, Russia can not match in weapon production. Cheap drones in quantity, raid with 100, it doens’t if they shoot 50, the other 50 destroys the enemy. In WWII airplanes were cheap but in high quantity. What are you with very expensive tanks if they blow up as fast as cheap tanks? Then having more tanks but cheaper wins the number game. The only thing you can’t replace are humans. To win I would focus on killing in high numbers. Desna 87, but if you kill 300 then kill 300. Now in Sieverodonetsk they can hurt the moral of Ukraine. Have them around 10.000 surrender and take all military equipment, or kill thousands of them while trying to flee. Don’t let them go, Ukraine must surrender or the war continues. That’s why the US will give MLRS. To kill Russians, to keep the fight going for years. Till the last soldier. Don’t be fooled, Russia lost an incredible amount of tanks, helicopters and soldiers. Without air support advancing is troublesome. They really need drones or other means to detect soldiers hiding in bushes to destroy heavy equipment. I guess no one is willing to sell to Russia? Or use the heavy stuff to make them surrender. Every day these losses are not sustainable.

    Reply
    • nonsensical says

      28 May 2022 at 10:25

      Wait, you really think Russia is lacking drones? Who do you think supplies NATO with their drone parts? Hint they live right next door to Russia and are strategic partners.

      Reply
      • buntalanlucu says

        28 May 2022 at 23:00

        he is a troll assigned to SONAR21 to post lies and FUD. look how he weave MSM propaganda of russia’s incredible amount of losses while bloviating about ‘russian non existent drone force’ and the usual ‘russia need china to help them’ nonsense

        then he ended up with classic concern troll statement..

        theres so many trolls like this ‘ramos’ in other sites , one can see the pattern of trolling immediately

        Reply
    • buntalanlucu says

      28 May 2022 at 13:27

      incredibly lame trolling attempt , posting so many nonsense from MsM propaganda by claiming russia made terrible mistakes , russia suffer heavy losses , russia lack drones , russian lost incredible amout of tank / heli / soldier.

      theres so many BS and lies in your post , including amateur suggestion for russia to use drone drone drone just like a kid who think real war is a video game.

      typical concern troll nonsense

      Reply
  12. Dale says

    28 May 2022 at 09:35

    Does anyone have a handle on (A) Russian troop losses (B) Russian tank losses ?

    Obviously, Russia’s been pretty tight-lipped on losses.

    Western media having a heyday with claims of titanic losses of Russian tanks.

    Reply
    • buntalanlucu says

      29 May 2022 at 06:40

      you can use a simple barometer , if the russian lost so many men , armor and aircraft , where are the corpse pile , armor hulks and crashed aircraft ? so far the so called OSINT photos of russian destroyed armor turned out to be ukrainian armor painted with Z.

      and dont start with Ghost of Kiev nonsense

      any sane person would know the so called massive loss is pure propaganda nonsense

      Reply
  13. SoCal John says

    28 May 2022 at 13:57

    Your read — “… This is not Russian cheerleading to acknowledge that Russian troops, with the support of the LPR and DPR militias, have made remarkable and substantive progress on the ground and that Ukraine has lost effective control of the Donbas (not to mention its southern coastline)…” — makes great sense, and accords with what I read and see on other ‘alternate’ media. Russia is badly bloodying the nose of The Cabal. It is heartening to see.

    Reply
  14. SoCal John says

    28 May 2022 at 14:00

    Request — it would be great to hear your thoughts on what is going on in Syria between Russia and Turkey. Turkey sure seems to straddle lots of fences, and to needlessly put itself in bad positions, it seems to me. But, maybe I am wrong.

    Reply
  15. Sam McGowan says

    28 May 2022 at 15:58

    It appears even the Washington Post now realizes Ukraine is in big trouble – https://archive.ph/2u4Y5

    Reply
  16. Vallhall_Rising says

    28 May 2022 at 15:59

    Does anyone ever wonder what would happen if NATOstan and Russian forces actually fought each other??? I spent at least half of my military career during the Cold War years and asked myself that question every day.

    Next thought…D.C. is full of strategic dunces I am convinced of that…someone-anyone better start thinking and planning about what comes next e.g. after Russia achieves its objectives in the Ukraine…rest assured Russia et al have already done the staff analysis.

    “INFORMATION” in all its variable forms is in fact an element of national power. It doesn’t matter if the “information” is true or false–what matters is how it is interpreted and what effect it has on opinion, support, or some actual tactical or operational advantage/goal. In all fairness (an critical thought)…I would give the “information” edge to NATOstan…right, wrong or indifferent. However I doubt highly that edge is enough to prevail against Russia’s successes.

    Reply
    • buntalanlucu says

      29 May 2022 at 01:08

      easy , first round of NATO vs Russia will be the destruction of NATO space based ISR , Comm , Nav assets

      and all the High Value airborne assets will be attacked by long range SAM

      and all NATO airbases will be hit by missiles

      leaving NATO ground troop blind , deaf and alone

      Reply
  17. Coolfire says

    28 May 2022 at 16:49

    NYT: “After failing to topple Ukraine’s government in Kyiv, Russia redeployed troops for a far less ambitious goal: Seize the rest of the Donbas, beyond the area where Russia had already advanced a month ago.”

    This NYT quote is an example of a combination of outright dishonesty and military ignorance. I also have minimal respect of the ignorance and dishonesty being displayed by those considered “experts” of either our high military or administration on this subject. As example, General Milley’s speech to USMA, my school, was disgraceful as related to Russia and Ukraine.

    Despite being a favorite claim of US & NATO, as we know, it was never a Russian objective of over-throwing the Ukrainian government. So, there was no “failure”. The NYT lied. That’s just one of the examples of the US & NATO making up Russian objectives for our media, and then claiming some failure. When the term Special Military Operation (SMO) it is used in our MSM it is with ignorant sarcasm, rather than explaining that such an operation is initiated with a set of specific, limited objectives, in this case, specifically: Demilitarization of Ukraine, Denazification of Ukraine, Ukraine officially neutral, Non-nuclear status, Not join NATO, Recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, and Liberation of the entire territory claimed by the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics .

    This part of the NYT piece of crap, “… redeployed troops for a far less ambitious goal …” is meaningless and demonstrable of military ignorance. “…far less ambitious”!? A major military goal is considered “far less ambitious” than something that never was a goal?

    Dombass operation is the second phase of Defeat in Detail and Economy of forces. Generally it’s a relatively small holding force against one (Kiev region) of two (Donbass) geographically separated enemy forces, use of interior lines of communication (logically) , and then the massing of force against the geographically isolated main target forces of the enemy – the Donbass AFU – in this case necessary for the freedom of DPR and LPR regions.

    Reply
  18. RichardD says

    28 May 2022 at 19:30

    At 64 years old I tend to focus on the tragedy of battle as much as the glory. The stench of decaying human corpses is something that I’ll never forget. And the horrific injuries are a stark reminder of the high stakes involved.

    I agree with Larry completely. He’s doing a great service to humanity by providing a sober and objective portrayal of events.

    The calibration of military success goes beyond the expanding footprint of the advancing force. It is also measured in force neutralization ratios. From what I’ve seen. The desparity after the initial Russian advance is glaring. With UAF losses comparable to those sustained by a second or third world force against a first world force, rather than peer combatants.

    The loss of so many trained and experienced UAF personnel isn’t something that can be quickly or easily replaced without direct NATO force, not just money and equipment, intervention.

    That’s unlikely to occur. Especially after the UAF with substantial preparation and foreign intel and specop support. Is being mauled so badly. With little or no hope of stopping the Russian advance. Especially when so much of the indigenous population supports it.

    Another important consideration is the judicious and incremental Russian application of force. When it’s clear to any insightful observer. That so much is being held in reserve.

    Russia knows that it is fighting a multi faceted conflict that includes economic and political components. And that forcing Ukraine’s supporters to subsidize a large failed state to prevent economic and military collapse. Is an effective counter measure to the sanctions and political bifurcation.

    That results in Russia not only winning on the battlefield. But at a minimum, not losing on the economic and political fronts as well.

    America needs to focus it’s energy and resources domestically. And on being a responsible global partner with other nations, including Russia. To use it’s vast resources to create a better future for all of humanity. Rather than fabricating endless conflicts for the benefit of a plutocratic elite. To the detriment of the American people and humanity.

    Reply
    • buntalanlucu says

      29 May 2022 at 06:44

      i dont know , economic barometers are pretty bad months before ukraine ‘wag the dog’ wealth transfer to MIC. Inflation already rising , fuel already rising , food and necessities already rising.

      what’s better way to distract US citizen from the mess of biden’s administration ? push ukraine coke addict puppet to cross russia’s redline , and failing that , covertly activate bunch of mentally sick mass shooter to again distract the citizens , not to mention the intentional leak of SCOTUS document..

      it is almost US Govt afraid of it’s own people waking up and unifying against them

      Reply

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