Before the Judge turned on the camera I told him that I was irritated with him because he interfered with my writing on Monday night. He reacted with surprise and asked, “What did I do?” I told him my son was texting me while I was writing insisting that I needed to watch the Judge’s live appearance on Newsmax TV and that was a distraction. This elicited a hearty belly laugh (which was my intent). Just to point out that the Judge, by virtue of his past legal career, was in much demand to provide commentary and analysis on the bogus indictment of Donald Trump.
Anyway, we met virtually today to discuss my latest article analyzing how the war in Ukraine is likely to end. The Judge, fresh off a live hit doing his expert pundit thing, switched roles a became the expert interviewer.
Alleged chaos in the Russian economy is the latest glimmer of hope by the West that Russia is on the brink of economic ruin. The New York Times reported today in an article, Drastic Economic Moves Highlight Russia’s Wartime Bind, that:
On Tuesday, the bank’s long-serving and widely respected chief, Elvira Nabiullina, moved assertively again, announcing the third-largest interest rate increase in a decade to shore up the national currency, the ruble, and dent rising inflation. Yet, this time, her aggressive moves had little immediate effect on the markets.
The central bank’s actions underlined the perilous moment facing Russian economic officials as they try to contain the seismic forces unleashed by President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. The war has left policymakers with a seemingly impossible set of tasks: maintaining economic stability while financing the war machine and coping with Western sanctions; taming inflation without pitching the economy into recession.
The bank raised the benchmark interest rate by 3.5 percentage points to 12 percent. High interest rates raise the cost of borrowing, inhibiting spending. That, in turn, slows economic growth and can curb inflation. But political considerations can push in the opposite direction, for low interest rates that stimulate spending and keep the economy moving.
The ruble recovered modestly after the announcement; after falling to 100 to the dollar on Monday, it reached 97 on Tuesday.
There is a questionable assumption built into the NY Time’s report — Russia’s economic health depends on being able to pay for the import of foreign goods. Yet, thanks to Western sanctions, Russia’s imports of foreign consumer/luxury goods has retreated without any noticeable decline in the Russian standard of living. In fact, Russia is now ranked as the fifth largest economy in the world by GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (aka PPP):
Russia’s’ performance has destroyed the meme that Russia’s economy was a gas station masquerading as a country. It has achieved this despite a 50% decline in trade with the countries of Europe.
Even before sanctions were imposed, China was Russia’s largest trading partner. Against the Yuan, the Russian Ruble declined almost 20% over the last six months. Yes, this has a potential inflationary impact on Russian consumers, but the cheaper Ruble provides a bit of economic help to China, whose economy is struggling. The fall in the value of the Ruble means that China can purchase much needed oil and gas while spending less money.
I am more sanguine than the New York Times about Russia’s economic prospects. The war has stimulated a vast acceleration in Russia’s production of all things military. This is going to heat up the economy. Because Russia is self-sufficient in food and energy — the critical expenses that can hurt a family — the negative consequences of inflation are likely to be muted when it comes to the Russian consumers.
I think the economic analysis proffered by the NY Times is based on the assumption that Russia remains vulnerable to Western economic pressures. That is no longer a valid benchmark. During the last 18 months Russia has been busy forging new economic ties with non-Western countries and establishing new trade dynamics.
At home, Russian workers have seen wages increase and Russian factories are struggling to keep up with demand. Instead of shuttering factories, Russia is building new ones and stepped up dramatically its production of tanks, combat aircraft, cruise missiles, hypersonic missiles, artillery ammunition and military vehicles. Russia enjoys one advantage the West does not — it is virtually self-sufficient in essential commodities, rare earth minerals and energy.
The war and sanctions were a major economic shock. To not expect a period of adjustment is insane. As example of adjustment, Russia’s car market was hit the most. But retailers are bouncing back via Chinese relationship
Russia becomes No.1 export destination for Chinese-made automobiles –
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202307/1294155.shtml
“The war and sanctions were a major economic shock.”
Rubbish.
Russia stepped into the ring at their fight weight. They new 100% about sanctions and Uki weakness, zero shock there. Russian industry was in full production ready for total war production. Been replacing fancy chocolate nibbles and leather hand bags for sometime.
America begged for over a week for Russia to invade, then Russia obliged and fought a rope a dope fight. They are still punching on. Still winning and the slaughter, ie SMO—meat grinder, has reached sickening levels. But….the Uki Nazis wanted that kind of war. They got it!
Larry has a “wow to go, daily post,” on this from the very beginning. Recommended reading. He has the best record and gives credit where it is due. Ukraine unfortunately, is a “Tad” short on browny points.
I believe he is correct again and the end is near. I was wrong about it ending by last Christmas. I didn’t understand how the Russians were going to destroy Ukraine, UK, EU. (and they just might add USA.)
Russia does not Import anything from the west, and has little import from friendly Nations.
Russia has all it need inside the country. As such Russia doesn’t need a strong Ruble to pay for imports.
However:
Russia exports a lot of Energy and Food, but only to friendly Nations.
Thus Russia can afford to lower the ruble to pamper friendly Nations with cheap Russian energy and food, while all products and services denominated in Dollars around the world are rising, due to inflation.
It makes those of us living in the West; wish that our governments were friendly towards Russia.
Does not import anything from the west ?
Russia, I said has BEEN reducing imports….WHAT about the Western fast food industry that is STILL in Russia and making a profit.
What about other Western products Manufactured in Russia. If it’s USA and comes off a boat it’s imported …
If it’s USA and manufactured by the USA in Russia and sold in Russia please explain what it is. The same for every other Western nation. Then split a hair.
Now this really is a Larry moment, how many/ much Western products sold/ manufactured with, “ Love in Russia” today. Moar Fucking war, it’s the fastest way to make a killing on Wall St USA next China then Australia or maybe both as once.
The http://WWW.com awaits with abated breath for a “Larry-educational moment.”
Meanwhile as you wait, read : Catch22 truth is an orphan.
Aaron says
WHAT about the Western fast food industry that is STILL in Russia and making a profit.
My comment:
There is no longer any Western Fast food industry left in Russia.
Today what was previously Mc Donald in Russia is today a Russian enterprise called Vkusno i tochka
Aaron says
What about other Western products Manufactured in Russia. If it’s USA and comes off a boat it’s imported.
My comment:
What was previously produced by Western companies in Russia has now left Russia due to Western sanctions against Russia, and most of these factories have been taken over by Russian industrialists.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/19/business/volkswagen-russia-factory.html
Aaron says
If it’s USA and manufactured by the USA in Russia and sold in Russia please explain what it is.
The same for every other Western nation. Then split a hair.
My comment:
Try to get it: there is no US production going on in Russia any more.
Neither is there any US export to Russia.
DANE …..I forgot to mention…
America buys Russian oil it needs to blend with it own. Buys Russian rockets motors for its mighty NASA heaven list rockets. Also to get to the spacestation.
Catch22
It also seems to me that those GDP numbers don’t tell the whole story. Saw an economist break this down about a year ago. Can’t recall who exactly but what he said made a lot of sense. You really need to weigh service economies (most Western Nation) vs economies that are dominated by industry and resource exporters. In bad times you certainly want to be in the latter group. Frankly we are sitting ducks if the de dollarization plan catches fire.
USSR never counted wages of ballet dances as GDP but West did. on Income Method. It is a question of the disaggregation of Western systems into subcontracting and paying to take in each other‘s washing whereas Russia has fewer transactions
Russian military engineering production is State owned and integrated without generating separate invoiced transactions including a profit component. In short there is more Cost-Accounting then Financial Accounting
Russians are also more resourceful than Westerners in growing food rather than supermarket foraging so till receipts are fewer
GDP in West now includes 10% estimate for Black Market including prostitution and drugs which is peculiar in that neither are taxed but it helps reduce tax as proportion of GDP in political talkshows
GDP is a 1940s concept which was based on a manufacturing economy with good figure. In an era of speculative trading and immaterial goods and subcontracting it is no longer as useful as Value-Added but US has no Value-Added-Tax so cannot match different measurements
Pure nonsense, stop making things up. You pretend expertise you don’t have and do not provide any sources or proof for your claims, which go beyond opinion.
GDP was developed as a mesaure of total economy final value ALL goods and services in a specific time frame (year, month, decade, etc.) and location (country, provence, city, etc.) It was first used in a basic form since the the late 17th century.
It was refined and usd during the the 1930s Great Depression and its limitations were persented to the US Congress in 1937. It’s limitations include being highly subject to manipulation for political purposes.
It is increasing being recognized by as more a political tool than economic index as the reality of it’s weakness and political manipulation is more evident to large groups of people worldwide. Part of the EOL disnformation machine.
You can check this information at a varietty of easy to obtain sources. Start with these:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product
https://www.britannica.com/money/topic/gross-domestic-product
https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2023/apr/three-other-ways-to-measure-economic-health-beyond-gdp
“Pure nonsense, stop making things up. You pretend expertise you don’t have and do not provide any sources or proof for your claims, which go beyond opinion”
My reply to your comment.
GDP is a garbage number, produced by garbage caluclations of things like Wall St financial engineering, student debt, medical/hospital sector, and other nonsensical items that are not actually productive, just parts of the parasite “service economy” that we have today.
The proof is right there in front of your lying eyes, if you only could see it. Some fake “service bassed” economies produce bullshit, others produce real goods.
That’s why PPP is used, it is flawed as well insome ways, but certainly far better than fake GDP numbers.
Proof: the US Defence Budget of what $1 Trillion is part of GDP, and yet in real life produces over-priced junk in smallnumbers that is in-effective in real battle. The same can be said for all of US/UK/NATO ‘GDP” – fake bullshit.
My reply to your comment.
You misunderstood if you think that I am arguing in support of a simple, uncorrected GDP index in 2023. It is the exact use of simple GDP to rank the US economy as world leader that is political disnformation tool used to control the plebs and destroy freedom. ‘Service’ economy is de-industrialization and steps toward enslavement, IMO. Even a honest ranking of simple GDP would show China passed the US in that some years ago, but that would be contra to the ‘Narrative!’
PPP is one tool to correct simple GDP to make it correspond to a more real measurement of the economy of average peoples living conditions. Those figures in the list are from the end of 2022. Germany and the rest of Europe will be lower the next time it is compiled at tehnd of 2023.
Other GDP corrections show industrial capacity, energy production, and finished product indexes. RF ranks high in these. US did a long time ago, before ‘late-stage’ financial capitalism took hold to destroy and outsource production and generate huge paper profits financed by dollar reserve currency printing presses.
Think we both see the same thing and don’t buy the EOL disnformation psyop.
It is important to use terms correctly to understand and communicate before you can respond. Destruction and trivialozation of education is a step toward control and enslavement.
My point was that Greenwood’s post mistates in fanstastical terms pretty much everything about GDP and is makes no sense in that regard, nor does he deal with PPP corrected GDP in the index that Larry provided in his post. I found it bizzare. Helpfully provided a series of links with plenty of real info on more than simple GDP and other economic indexes. To communicate you need to speak using terms correctly.
Have to add, since you mentioned the US defense budget. The US stopped making defensive weapons in the early 1950s, as far as I can tell. Could still hide begind two oceans then, no longer though.
President Eisenhower warned against the Millitary Industrial Complex in his last address before leaving office in 1961. The MIC is money-laundering scheme, IMO. Highly complex, expensive weapon systems, with production spead across key Congressional districts to get support, revolving door Hill-Pentagon-MIC highly paid positions to buy the production, and captive client states in OTAN to sell it to is pretty nice racket. Works well enough against third world countries, except that the combined West hasn’t actualy won a conflict since WWII.
You seem not to understand what GDP is and you certainly do not know where, when or why it was developed. A quick search will show that. You are providing uniformed opinion, not facts and do not include any sources or proof to show your opinions are factual. There is a lot of info easily available to gain some understanding. Hope this will help your understanding.
GDP goes back to the last half of the 17th century. It was modernized in 1934, during the Great Depression, for a US Congressional report. It has a specific formula and also limitations, is subject to much criticisms. A second US Congressional report contained a section on “Uses and Abuses of National Income Measurements” spelled out some of these that continue to be valid.
Much more, plus plenty of footnotes here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product
More general info on GDP and alternative measurement indexes:
https://www.britannica.com/money/topic/gross-domestic-product
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/167255/economics/alternatives-to-gdp/
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/00420980231187884
BTW, education, arts and entainments are part of GDP:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPGDPAERAF/
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/us-education-expenditure-as-share-of-gdp-public-and-private-institutions
https://www.stlouisfed.org/-/media/project/frbstl/stlouisfed/education/lessons/pdf/gdp_expenditures_equation.pdf?…
Here is how to calculate it:
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070615/how-do-you-calculate-gdp-expenditures-approach.asp
Stop making things up. You wrote: “USSR never counted wages of ballet dances as GDP but West did.” Unfortunately it didn’t get better after that inauspicious beginning.
You appear upset and somewhat eccentric. There are NO published GDP Accounts by Sir William Petty from 1676 for England or U.K. or France or any nation existing in 1676 or even in 1876. The only unemployment statistics in England in 1890 were sporadic Trade Union records.
Statistics did not exist.
Kuznets developed a model in 1934 but the data was not collected until 1940s during WW2.
Economic Historians later used methodology to try retrospectively generate GNP (not GDP) data. GDP was anyway more relevant tonUS than to U.K. which had huge overseas sector affecting Balance of Payments
You are emphatically wrong. Economists are not in need of proving basic concepts from Economics 101
USSR only included Productive Labour in its N I Accounts in line with Marxist Economics whereas Capitalist Systems included all forms of rent and services. It is why Russia has a bigger manufacturing sector than Germany but on US calculations a smaller GDP because Manufacturing Output is dwarfed by Banking or Legal Incomes
Your in character response post made claims that did not address anything I wrote, or what was contained in any of the source material in my response There was plenty of links and sourrces, and you likely didn’t read any of it. You certainly didn’t respond to any of it.
One misdirection straw-man claim you make is there was ‘no published for UK econ stats in 1676.’ You provide no support for that nonsense claim. You can read the verifiable sources I helpfully provided and see that “William Petty came up with a basic concept of GDP to attack landlords against unfair taxation during warfare between the Dutch and the English between 1654 and 1676.”
Even more amusing is your claim that “Statistics didn’t exist” in 1676???? Well, considering that the word came from Latin, that is another fantasy claim easly disproved. Try reading this, it uses examples dating from the 5th century BCE:
https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~dzimmer/alphaseminar/Statistics-history.pdf
or even this:
https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~dzimmer/alphaseminar/Statistics-history.pdf
Extra credit to examine inscriptions in the Pyramids!
Read the source material in my post and follow the footnotes for further explanation and research. There are plenty of Soviet GDP reports. They use the formula for GDP that was/is accepted worldwide at the time published. Have fun with your fantasies, or educate yourself.
BTW, Larry’s post referenced a 08 Aug 2023 published report showing that the RF has the world’s 5th largest economy, and is the largest economy in Europe:
https://intellinews.com/russia-overtakes-germany-to-become-fifth-biggest-economy-in-the-world-in-gdp-on-a-ppp-basis-286944/?source=russia
The 2023 table is RF, NOT Soviet, listed for Russia. The USSR was dissolved in 1991. The flag to the right of the listing is also a clue you apparently missed. The PPP valuation formula used to derive the table is researchable and an accepted tool. It doesn’t support your fantasy about Soviet economic figures.
You apparently don’t nother to read Larry’s posts either or would have understood this. Again, you make fantasy claims to ignore what is real.
My point is that there is a lot of easily accessible and verifiable sources to learn about the world. I pulled together a quick list since you claims were so fantastical and so easily disproved. I hoped you would accept that attempt to help with an open mind and investigate and learn. It is useful be proved wrong, as that is how one learns and corrects and refines understanding.
You rather make up fantastical things to post, and won’t provide support for them. You object to being called on such misinformation, do not respond to the articles and research provided to show you that your claims are in error, have no basis or support. You ignore a variety of verifiable proof and choose to provide an non-respsonive misdirection and straw-man arguements because there is no support.
Seems you’re a troll to be ignored, afterall.
https://www.promarket.org/2021/10/31/gdp-invention-economic-growth-kuznets-history/
USSR operated on Marxian Economics which is somewhat different to your “Wikipedia knowledge-base”……….it did not measure GDP other than by Productive Outputs……..
USA tried to estimate USSR GDP using Western metrics (I bet Larry Johnson can tell you about that)
https://www.hse.ru/en/news/research/438414950.html
” taking into account indicators that were not taken into account in the USSR, such as profits and land rents, ”
https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/DOC_0000497165.pdf
READ p4 carefully. “Net Material Product”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_material_product
“NMP is calculated for the material production sectors only, and excludes most of the service sectors, which are part of GDP. The material production sectors include manufacturing industries, agriculture and forestry, construction, wholesale and retail trade, supply of material inputs, road maintenance, freight transport (but not passenger transport), communication and information services supporting material production, and other material production activities. It is calculated by subtracting the value of all production costs (including the cost of material inputs, depreciation, and labor in production) from the value of output produced in the material production sectors.”
http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/13573/D06-172.pdf
“The main structural differences between MPS and UNSNA are attributable to a different interpretation of newly created value, and of the accumulation of stocks of wealth. Consequently, there are differences in grossing and netting procedures for the main aggregates. In MPS, many services are not regarded as value-adding, and therefore excluded from the total net output. As the name suggests, the MPS aims to measure the annual output of material goods, in contrast with services. In MPS the economy is divided up into three sectors: (1) productive enterprises, (2) the non-productive sphere, and (3) households. Typically the planning authorities also collected comprehensive data on the physical units of products produced. ”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_Product_System
“ever, Marx himself never attempted to create any system of social accounts for socialist economies; his own economic categories concerned the capitalist mode of production, and not a socialist economy. Further, the MPS accounts used a definition of “unproductive labor” which was closer to that of Adam Smith than to that of Marx.”
Extra Reading……..https://www.nber.org/system/files/chapters/c5691/c5691.pdf
Have fun, troll!
Well said.
John Bolton is insane. One of Trump’s worst picks – and he had some doozies. The excuse of “keep your enemies closer” doesn’t cut it regarding Bolton. If Trump somehow regains the presidency, I hope he has learned a lot of lessons. I won’t hold my breath.
If Trump gets to the 2024 elections, I’ll close my eyes, pinch my nose and probably vote for him. I hope, the second time around, he’d make a better staff selection, but judging by his choice of lawyers, I wonder where he gets them – Miss America and the basement bargain store? Not impressed.
Lawyers have been warned by the government and legal establishment that their careers will be destroyed if they represent Trump.
Pay attention to the relentless deep state and have some respect for the people still willing to stand against it, even if they don’t measure up to your exalted expectations of lawyers.
Very easy to make cat calls from the cheap seats, where you are not putting your life or livelihood, and that of your family, on the line.
Exactly right. Thank you!!
^^^^^^THIS^^^^^
https://swisscows.com/en/video?query=jimmy+stewart+mr+deeds
At this point “Teflon Don” Trump is using his unique outlook of the Swamp and picking the adequate people on the go, in his fight to drain the swamp. At this point Trump’s presidency, if he does win (and survives with his life intact), he should serve that term as a Vince McMahon type figure who recruits whatever talent to keep the WE afloat. Trump can shuffle through whomever as long as he dedicates his entire term to decimating the entire US electoral and partisan circus WHILE introducing a new alternative with new blood on board that will trailblaze into the future unhindered. I wish Trump, coz only he, is in the position and is abnoxious enough to go full throttle on these demons.
Bolton was a gift from God to destroy satanic America.
Along with the rest of the nutters..hand picked for perfection. Include Gates etc and the electric car man that is still selling exploding, climate change batteries in cars that are killing the 1% ‘ers. Nobody deserves to die in a battery fire inferno.
Wear your muzzle: get your booster injection.
THE LATEST GAME CHANGER FROM A EUROPEAN COUNTRY
: a microwave oven that seats 200. From a undisclosed source, not authorised to let on what swine have planned for us.
Finding true data on China economy is pretty foggy. Some say debt to gdp could be 300:1
Some say China is near an economic “reset”.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-economy-verge-collapse-pboc-central-banker-calls-helicopter-money
They are pretty tough…they are not going anywhere.
China’s GDP is about $18 trillion. 300:1 would mean 5.4 quadrillion dollars of debt.
I expect he means 300% or 3:1 which would be very high but credible.
Too many players making money by bad mouthing China to take anything seriously though.
Zero hedge has a lot that is interesting but it has certain hobby horses that it (or one of the many versions of Tyler Durden) will push forever. Gold being one of them. The parlous state of the Chinese Economy being another.
If we took all the accusations of China cheating on its Economic stats seriously we’d have to conclude that Chinese GDP is one tenth of what it claims. – in which case North Korea is the bigger threat.
> The perilous state of the Chinese Economy being another.
Yeah. Every few years ZH rises a big stink about how China is about to *CRASH* and it never works out. 🙂 Now strictly speaking, that doesn’t exactly mean they won’t be right eventually (even a broken clock shows the right time twice a day), however the predictive value of their calls for China-crash is somewhere around 0.
ZH can also be used as a good contrarian indicator. They have a little bit of Jim Cramer in them. 🙂 Then again, all of Wall Street does. :/
ZH is strictly Austrian School, following Prof. von Hayek of the London School of Economics. Regular von Mises screeds.
Zerohedge writes about China – sources, Rabobank (Netherlands), Financial Times (GB), Morgan Stanley (USA).
It appears this is another western infiltrated, biased and influenced media outlet.
Zerotrust
I think Zero Hedge started as the “underground news” with the white shirt financial community. They couldn’t speak about corporate financial situation openly…or they would lose their jobs. It grew from there. Tyler Durden is the anon ghost writer name.
When your read all the various economic sources about China… from all over the world… it seems to be the shadow banking system liquidity that comes to the surface as a problem. You also have the communist command project economy…where huge projects were built ahead of demand… and remain unused. On the other side of that communist command economy situation…is there is no discussion when a big project is going forward. Do or die.
Australia and NZ are basically “colonies” of China… economically. AUS is an “oxy moron”… always preparing for war with china…always selling minerals and so forth as an economic partner.
China has much of Africa, Panama, much of South America…. economically anyway.
Huge manufacturing base. Any banking problems will be papered over…and they are also a huge holder of gold ..to back their banks.
ZH appears to be increasingly reliant on articles falling under the Epoch Times banner. ET is the media propaganda arm of the Falun Gong, and probably funded by a three-letter US agency.
https://www.pdcnet.org/jrv/content/jrv_2021_0999_2_16_80
ROFL! Am I happy to have come down here in the comments section to see what’s going on! Thanks for this catch!
Yeah, Zerohedge is now on death-watch for me. I guess blogs will end up being the only reasonable choice for obtaining actual information. That WAS the promise of Internet, after all. That even if all else failes, you’d still be able to rely on actually intelligent people independently providing information. Of course, I think people back than didn’t take into account the poisoning of the wells that is done today by “them”.
Worse than that .
Taipei, Taiwan: Character-Forming by 6,000 Falun Gong Practitioners on Freedom Square
https://en.minghui.org/html/articles/2015/11/30/153883.html
Seems very like Azov? The CIA’s WACL World Anti-Communist League (WACL) today World League for Freedom and Democracy.
Now where is the most democratic country under threat?
Numbers on the paper are just numbers. Real things are tangible, like steel, or aluminium, or titanium, or things made out of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_steel_production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_primary_aluminium_production
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_titanium_production
The recent depreciation of Ruble is making Russia’s goods and services more affordable to friendly countries. It could have been bad news if they had to exchange Ruble to the US dollar for imports from the west, but since Russia – unlike most countries – is not reliant on such imports, NYT analysis is wrong. Also besides an increase in military hardware production, there’s this massive hike in civilian industrial manufacturing projects all over Russia. For example, we can see how so many people are currently involved in reconstruction across Donbass. Huge amounts of construction materials and workers are busy rebuilding former war torn cities including Mariupol which is not recognizable from a year ago.
A low rouble also encourages people holding dollars that it’s a good time to sell them for roubles. It’s very helpful for oligarchs repatriating foreign investments.
It also helps government policy to reduce demand for imports, whilst at the same time helping domestic producers of competitive products. For exporters, if their contracts are denoted in foreign currency, there are windfall profits in the local currency, and if not, their products are cheaper for foreign buyers.
The downside of a low currency value is if a country has a large foreign debt denoted in a foreign currency or is dependent on foreign capital. This is not the case for Russia.
Sans foreign debt, and being a large exporter of commodities, a low currency is a boon for a government wanting to stimulate domestic economic growth and import reduction.
Good points thanks. In other words a lower Ruble at this stage is going to help stimulate the Russian economy esp. during war time. Russia is no Weimar Republic.
The ‘value of the ruble against the $USD’ meme is yet another western obsession/delusion.
The truth is that the ruble:USD rate in 2023 is in essence meaningless. The Russian economy is clearly thriving even under sanctions, with accelerating growth and low inflation. Russia no longer has a relationship with the US or the West. It has virtually no trades denominated in ruble:$USD. In fact, most of its trades are in ruble-yuan.
Also, Russia is an export economy. It benefits from a low ruble against any counterpart currency. How people still don’t get this is beyond me.
Also, Russia does not import food or energy. Therefore it is not exposed to import trades denominated in another currency, as western economies are.
But still western Russophobes obsess. The latest is the canard that the Russian central bank is ‘raising rates to save the ruble’. What utter nonsense.
Central banks don’t raise rates to save (manipulate) currencies, they usually raise rates to tame growth and/or try and bring down inflation. Russia has low inflation (3.2%) but it’s economy is growing fast under boom conditions, so the Central bank is acting to raise rates accordingly.
If you want to manipulate currencies when your economy is in steel decline, a Central Bank may engage in QE. There are several central banks around the world that have been doing this, in sheer panic. Question: What banks would they be? Hint – not the Russian Central Bank.
What would Russia do with US Dollars ? They would have them seized by US
When Euro was conceived in 1970s it was because in ERM „Snake“ the Intervention currency to keep European currencies in a Band was US dollar which was absurd as it meant bilateral parity to US dollar determined Intra-EEC trade
Had the Euro been properly configured it would not have caused stultification of Euro economy with Germany being slightly deflationary and Italy being inflationary using devaluation as a resolution. Instead Germany stole the Lira advantage to boost its own exports locking Italy into deflation
Russia does not need dollars
Good interview, but your audio quality is poor again, Larry…
Stand alone mike. It appears to be a problem with Streamyard platform. I’m not having any problem on other platforms like Zoom or Skype or Google.
Larry, care to comment on why the Judge was quickly and quietly dropped from Fox News? Just asking for a friend.
It was reported in the news at the time. I don’t know what you mean by “quiet.” It was widely reported. Involved allegations of misconduct.
Misconduct……is that what we call it now?
If Trump gets to the 2024 elections, I’ll close my eyes, pinch my nose and probably vote for him. I hope, the second time around, he’d make a better staff selection, but judging by his choice of lawyers, I wonder where he gets them – Miss America and the basement bargain store? Not impressed.
Kirby resembles what happens when you give a corny hick too much speed to cover some talking points. Mark Steyn calls him the dancing eyebrows.
That Russia has low inflation is a delusion. Prices for goods are rising very quickly. In addition, wages in Russia are not rising at all. Where did you get that from?
Government investment in military production only accelerates inflation. It’s a law of economics. And that’s why the USSR collapsed. Note that the USSR produced a huge amount of weapons. However, this led to general shortages and huge prices for literally any goods except those subsidized by the state. All this did not contribute to the unity of the nation.
The same thing is happening now.
Inflation is between 3 and 4%. Food, importantly for workers is 0.5%. Gasoline is 57 cents where I live. The local government has just finished a multi trillion (if you prefer dollars to understand, multi billion) redevelopment of the city, only three years after the 2018 world cup modernization. This includes all historical buildings, and we have an enormous Kremlin.
Unemployment is at an all time low, all sectors have vacancies and yes salaries have increased, in our district at approximately 5% average across board. This is above current inflation.
Please do not spread disinformation!
The problem in Russia is small families.
As it is everywhere in the White-sphere.
This is a manufactured crisis, that there is no easy or quick fix for. We are talking a decade…X2 and more of cultural, economic effort. A war some might say…like The New Deal, the war on poverty, drugs…and such – except successful, like the war to replace Whites from all sectors of policy/decision making.
That one has made huge progress: https://odysee.com/@RealRedElephants:d/bestbuywoke:9?r=4KF8PgmesKtQhxt1ZGwv28qhfSNBdeLz
We need a liberation movement of our own. It`z coming.
A paradigm shift in consciousness, and understanding the how, why and who led us to this point in our existence and which path available to us we should chose.
It ain`t gonna be pretty…ANY path we chose…
Yes, Natalia. When I read your figures on inflation and multi-billion dollar investments in Moscow’s infrastructure, I feel a little embarrassed. It all reminds me of simple cheap propaganda. I was particularly struck by the phrase that workers need nothing but food.
The snobs in the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee thought so too. As a result, the USSR ceased to exist. You are repeating the same mistake.
I’ll come back to your comment at the end of this year.
We’ll see if the Russian economy collapses as you hope it would.
I am in direct contact to people in Russia, and don’t confirm that the inflation makes normal people in Russia poorer.
Russians are user to hardship, not only during war, but also during the 90th. So, compared to the 90th, Russians experience the situation of today as ok.
Still, none of the people I know in Russia wants to destroy Ukraine. They all utter that the war should stop as soon as possible.
I don’t want to say that the war will not make finally problems for consumer goods, but Russia simply switches from European suppliers to either domestic or Chinese. And this switch seems to work.
I bought some Russian pipe tobacco on Monday — 730 rubles for a 450 g pouch. A couple of weeks ago, it was 630 rubles, and before the “sanctions from hell”, it cost 498 rubles. Last week, I was forced to buy Danish tobacco in the local village shop out in the sticks, where I am at present lounging around at my summer residence, as there was no more Russian baccy in stock The Danish tobacco knocked me back 1,500 rubles. They had plenty of it in stock. My favourite Russian tobacco was back on the shelves last Monday, and it’s a dammed sight better than that Danish sweetened aromatic crap that I had bought earlier. Whatever, man does not live by tobacco alone.
Yes the need to wean you Wannabe-Oligarchs off imported baccy is key to Russia’s future………….if you want to enrich W. O Larsen as you spin around in your Testarossa you should pay through the nose……….
Well argued, you are the only one who understands that here. That happened after World War II also, with a country that called itself the “arsenal of democracy”. In reality it collapsed due all of the military spending and production and had rampant inflation to the point where they had to cap wages (resulting in medical benefits being provided instead)… but they papered it over with 78 years of prosperity, calling themselves the “indispensable nation”. People will quibble over the details and projections, but it is an iron “law of economics” with no variations or nuances permitted. Amazing how people can arrive at opposite conclusions when the facts are as clear as day. (sigh)
Yes but USSR also had an agricultural problem it no longer has.
Why doesn’t USA have hyperinflation with its surreal levels of Defence Spending ? Is that the Trade Deficit that is keeping inflation down ?
In 1940s UK Britain spent 40% GDP on War but suppressed inflation with PAYE Taxation and “forced saving” and rationing…..well into 1950s
I suspect Russian “inflation” is similar to West European food price inflation – generated by Margin Greed on the part of retailers and wholesalers………funnily enough many prices fall when consumers boycott………
It would be a strange economy with no inflation as supply/demand goes through disequilibrium…….the surprise in Western Europe is that wages are not rising ahead of prices
US like China and Germany uses huge amounts of Debt Finance to generate that GDP number which people tend to forget requires huge debt interest payments which boost the Income Method GDP calculation
Anyone living in credit lines can live „wealthier“ than the pauper who pays using savings or income
How much Debt/GDP do US or China have in total ?
It is amazing what debt HIDES. Russia is often described as a “gas station masquerading as a country” because of this. I have had many Americans who have told me, just compare the average American house to the average Russian house and the standard of living between what the average American enjoys compared to the average Russian, to see which country is more prosperous. Fair enough, as far as that goes. However, when you factor in the 30+ trillion US national debt it comes out to something like $100,00 per person or $400,000 per family of four. Then add other debt like credit cards, mortgages, student loans etc. So, if you give each Russian household an additional $500,000 to spend, they will be up to the US standard very quickly. Or, do the opposite, subtract $500,000 of “real goods” from each US household and see what the United States looks like then.
I agree that Russia is pretty safe economically so long as it maintains a trade surplus or is roughly neutral.
But: “The fall in the value of the Ruble means that China can purchase much needed oil and gas while spending less money.”
I’m pretty sure that China is buying Oil from Russia using long term prices set in USD. To do anything else would be pretty reckless. Both Russian and Chinese companies could then easily hedge those FX risks into their own currency easily. (The issue of settlement in Yuan or Rubles which is an easy switch).
And if I am wrong, then the pricing will be in Yuan, certainly not Rubles for obvious reasons.
Doing China a favour?? China has a trade surplus of $80bn while Russian oil exports to China might be $60bn and the 20% currency devaluation might be a saving or $12bn.
I don’t see that China really needs that.
Rather we are seeing Russia moving from largely Western trading partners to now China as the big trading partner. China’s currency has always been much cheaper than western currencies. A fall in the Ruble makes it much easier to compete with the new peers (or makes the economic benefits of trade more efficient if you like).
The devaluation of the ruble is an interesting phenomenon because Russia is a net-exporting country. Logic dictates that ruble would be under continuous pressure to appreciate. Since it did the opposite, the logical conclusion is that a major force was pushing the ruble in the opposite direction and this WASN’T the trade imbalance!
Perhaps the state printed a large amount of money without backing? Wars have a terrible tendency to be inflationary, for the simple reason it’s *just* *so* easy to print money! So maybe the ruble printer went brrrr!
That seems to be the only really sensible option. There is an alternative in the sense that people are converting their rubles to dollars/whatever en masse however this option seems a bit iffy to me. The ruble has been devaluing at a steady pace for at least half a year. Is that consistent with mass popular action?
Could large amounts of direct foreign investment by Russian businesses (i.e. Russians investing in overseas ventures) produce this sort of a result?
Perhaps this is a sideeffect of preparatory action for a common BRICS currency? I saw a sentence that China has apparently decided it won’t run a trade deficit, but will instead supply yuans by currency swaps. I guess after 500 years of failures SOMEBODY finally learned a lesson on running a reserve currency. 🙂 If Russia is also doing massive currency swaps, it might devalue the ruble (same as if people massively start converting their savings to non-rubles) – *especially* if the swaps use freshly printed rubles.
It seems to me the ruble is just gradually returning to the relative value it had before the start of the war.
I am looking right now at a plot showing the value of RUB relative to USD, CNY and EUR on a daily time step from 2019-01-01 to 2023-08-15. The three lines have exactly the same shape.
The drop in RUB’s relative value was very steep at the start of the war, after being stable since the last quarter of 2020 up to the start of 2022. It dropped precipitiously in Feb 2022 and then it recovered even more spectacularly up to May-June 2022, reaching relative values higher than before the war.
Then at the end of 2022 it started to slide down gradually and consistently, and currently it is slightly lower than before the war.
My guess is that RUB slightly overshoot the target in its sliding down so it will recover to the relative value it had before the war by the end of this year.
US Grant, aka unconditional surrender
Arithmetic is simple 20k+ per month KIA.
It is very surprising that such a good observer and analyst like you didn’t see that.
As a intended bonus NATO without fighting capacity.
https://t.me/s/glazieview
Dr. Sergei Glazyev, EAEU Economics chief, has a very critical discussion of the RCB.
“Balance of payments statistics clearly indicate who the management of the Bank of Russia works for. The main priority is Western lenders, investors and speculators. For the sake of their interests, the production sector of the Russian economy is sacrificed. And a political order from Biden, as in 2014 from Obama: to bring down the exchange rate and fill up the economy in order to prove the effectiveness of sanctions”.
Glazyev has a proposed set of measures to deal with this.
I don’t know what Glaziev is smoking but looking at the data on the relative values of the Russian ruble vis-a-vis three major currencies over a 4.5 yr horizon, RUB is just returning to the relative value it had before the war, so nothing yet to be concerned about. See my reply to rert.
Russia’s repayment of foreign debts is becoming a major destabilizing problem, provoking a currency crisis and threatening financial stability.
There is an Excel spreadsheet at this TG comment by Glazyev.
Look at the numbers.
“A blockhead in preference always walks the same way. The monetary authorities have turned into a simple machine with a program laid down by Washington financial organizations”.
To put it another way, if it walks like a Dime, quacks like a Quarter, it is a Dollar.
Russia is not dependent of foreign products and has a very low external debt. So, the ruble reduction value then has low impact on country’s finance. The export will improve, specially now when a lot of countries are interested in the military, farm, fertilizers, and other products produced there.
About the reconstruction of the east side of Ukraine, Russia should expose this in the media. Certainly this would have a impact on the western population.
East side of Ukraine is still in the process of deconstruction.
MSM is in control of the western population. Russia no longer cares about their opinion. Those that are interested can find bunch of videos on the Internet:
https://www.youtube.com/@MariupolVideo/videos
https://www.youtube.com/@VideosfromMariupol/videos
Thanks for the links and totally agree with you about the MSM.
I have a feeling that Russian military hardware is going to boom – excuse the pun – after the war.
A lot of Western stuff is going to plunge in value too, as it is often found to be over-engineered, overpriced junk.
I wonder if the Chinese are testing some of their gear behind the scenes too?
Larry,
Even world bank shows Russia’s economy is doing well.
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/RUS/russia/gdp-gross-domestic-product
But world bank data are biased to the US GDP calculation which is not reality based.
Andrei Martyanov has more than once (sorry, cant find, his blog has no search engine) showed that in terms of or steel production* of energy use**, Russia is comparable to the US, double Germany, China is off the chart. Energy correlates really well with real economic activity (not charging to wash each others dogs) over annual to century timescales, across the globe and Russian life expectancy is growing – meanwhile, the times article, could be read as projection. Also, Russia graduates as many STEM as the US, with half the population (China 10X)***.
My guess SWAG is Russia’s true economy is 2-3 times that of Germany, i.e., #3, and that is why the SMO is not having significant negative impact on the Russia economy (it aint costing) – in fact, it, pus sanctions have driven innovation and product substitution, which as the US once knew (WW2 era) stimulates real growth.
Meanwhile, if one reads the times article as projection, it reads as true – the Fed is raising rates to defend against de-dollarization, inflation is out of control in the US and west, and it can’t support economically or industrially even a minor war in Ukraine (Iraq, Afghan, etc. were expeditionary conflicts or police actions at the edge of empire)
* https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/annual-production-steel-data/?ind=P1_crude_steel_total_pub/CHN/IND
** https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-energy-cons?tab=table
*** https://www.eeworldonline.com/the-countries-with-the-most-stem-graduates/
I will disagree with Larry ; sanctions worked : German “industry is in tatters” !
The NS blowing make it obvious it was the goal of the sanctions from the get go.
That’s also why the whole Niger thing is a “polished turd”.
First , nobody sanctioned nuclear fuel (even the Russian one).
Then, it’s a very tiny market with few people knowing how to process the thing and few people in need of some…and they all know each-other. French will buy Kazakh Uranium processed in Russia and Vicky the swine won’t be able to do a thing about it… US also need some.
An apple in a Russian market still costs foughly the same in Rubles as it did before the SMO.
You can’t eat a Louis Vitton bag, a lesson that Europeans are going to learn in due course as they walk to their local markets to see what might still be locally available.
D.C. and Brussels, Berlin, London, Paris are right now chewing hats, eating crow!
There, fixed it for ya!
circumventing Aaron and Mike, we ve always had the feeling that the big shock in Russia as elsewhere last March 2022, was the broadness, abruptness and fury of econonomic sanctions versus Putin.
I ve figured t the time the Red Square would shake tremble like blasted by an earthquake.
Nope. They managed to stay standing and backlash.
It s been the 3rd western full guns blazing attack on the indomitable bear since the 19 th century.
try again.
The price of gold in Rubles increased by 75% in the past year, vs USD ~7.7%, Yuan on the Shanghai Gold Exchange ~15%. Gold in Rubles returned to the pre-conflict level of 3250₽/g in October 2022, in Aug 2023 it is now at 6000₽/g.
Does this suggest expansion of the Ruble supply in the past year?
Here are references prices for precious metals from the Bank of Russia from July 2022 to August 2023:
https://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/metall/metall_base_new/?UniDbQuery.Posted=True&UniDbQuery.From=07.08.2022&UniDbQuery.To=15.08.2023&UniDbQuery.Gold=true&UniDbQuery.Silver=true&UniDbQuery.Platinum=true&UniDbQuery.Palladium=true&UniDbQuery.so=1
Did you know somebody paying in gold in real life ? Did you try ?
As SCO noted, NATO looks like escalating to the Black Sea. Group Solntsepek just hacked the entire Ukr GUR defense system, rendering major paralysis and disruption. Various documents downloaded.
The GUR also had at its disposal documents on the construction of US Columbia-class nuclear submarines. It is possible that Washington plans to either use them for the attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet, or transfer them to Ukraine, some Russian reporters claimed.
F16’s, and now nuclear subs? What rabbit will they pull out of the hat next?
Gilbert Doctorow reports….
https://gilbertdoctorow.com
Russia’s asymmetric response
Russia’s asymmetric response to latest announced plans of U.S. and NATO for sending more devastating military hardware to Ukraine
Each time over the past 18 months that it appeared the Ukraine war was approaching a finale amounting to Kiev’s defeat and capitulation we have been surprised by yet another U.S. initiated escalation that changes the nature of the conflict and promises a new and drawn-out stage of fighting.
Europe is a backwater in more than one dimension. Not everyone here has gotten the word about Ukraine’s losses in two months of desperate attacks on Russian defensive positions across the entire 1,000 km front. Last night I watched a round-table discussion of the war on French television in which not a single panelist had been told that the game is up in Ukraine.
But to hell with the French propagandists. In the German media, mainstream journalists have been seeding the discussion of the war with news about Ukraine’s setbacks and the improbability of their accomplishing anything other than self-destruction as the fighting continues.
Nonetheless, the United States and Britain announce day after day new appropriations for delivery of military hardware of the most devastating sort to Ukraine.
So what are the Russians doing about the new arms on the way to Ukraine?
An article posted in Russian social media and carried by the number one news portal, Dzen, formerly a subsidiary of Yandex, gives us a good insight into Russian countermeasures that otherwise are buried in general daily Western reporting on the war.
The article posted on “Интересная жизнь с Vera Star” makes sense of it all.
See https://dzen.ru/a/ZNjKGWUcVjdoVNmI
First, those air raid sirens across the whole of Ukraine were related to the systematic Russian bombardment of all still functional Ukrainian airports from which their air force’s SU-24 and SU-27 can operate. These are the aircraft that are capable of carrying and firing the Storm Shadow and other long range missiles that have been supplied by Britain and France, and which may carry German missiles, if Berlin decides to proceed with its previous offer of such materiel.
Second, we are told that the Russians have just used Kinzhal hypersonic missiles to destroy the railway tunnels passing under the Carpathians which have been the main supply route of Western military hardware arriving from Poland and Romania. For a long time, there was discussion in the Russian senior military command over whether it was permissible to attack this ostensibly civilian infrastructure. However, the decision was taken to do so in light of the latest U.S. and NATO plans to raise the bar in what attack equipment they are providing to Ukraine. As the Russians argue, civilian infrastructure that is being used to serve military objectives automatically becomes a legal target for them.
By Russian calculations, they have now nullified the latest Western plans to prolong the war.
Add to this recent attacks on Ukrainian Danube Ports….
Which likely…..
Receive arms shipments from NATO countries via waterborne traffic on the Danube River…
INDY
The NYT economic analysis is the same trite bs as always.
If they print money it stimulates economic growth, but inflation danger.
If they raise rates it brakes economic growth and inflation comes down.
This is the gas pedal/brake pedal bath tub model of the economy.
It explains everything, except why the engine blows up and all other variables.
Various media : MI6 plans and trains Ukrainian mercenaries for Africa.
https://tass.com/russia/1661071
Ukraine as training ground for further imperial operations. $18 billion of vanished weapons already in crates.
Wagner has already dealt with these.
That makes now 2 imperial outsourced groups, the Neo-Nazis of Ukraine and the ISIS “silky boys” as Prigozhin mocked recently, operating together.
The US Continental Army faced off against British East Indie Company private red-coats, and various European mercenaries such as 40,000 Hessians.
The Albion Leopard changes not its spots.
Mercenaries…. as euphemism for terrorists…as they have stated this is for eliminating every political and military figure opposing/resisting Western interests, and thus, colonialism…
We realized in zero coma that the Azovites safely exported to safe places throughout Europe, avoiding the meat grinders in Ukraine´s fronts, were in the waiting as “stay-behind” networks for any need that could arise….
When a country is self-sufficient, measures related to trade are meaningless. Russia can motor along making what it needs and feeding its people. If they lose some cash from resource sales, they can tighten their belts and still be okay as they’ll still have all they need. From the WEF/globalist standpoint this makes them uncontrollable, and thus a threat.
The whole trend for the last century is to destroy self-sufficiency so as to control everything via supply chain bottlenecks. China, not being self-sufficient, is smart enough to try to get a handle on controlling their supply sources, but is still exposed, though not so bad because they have a solid manufacturing base enabling trade for resources. They are currently experiencing a meltdown in credit markets as they built up rapidly using printed money and debt. We’re seeing UAS pundits chriping that it’s the end of China, but we have to be cognizant that in relative terms, China is still way better off then the USA, a country that, for the most part, consumes only.
The poster child for stupidity is Canada, a country that up until Trudeau senior was self-sufficient, made everything it needed, protected its manufacturing capability, but decided to give it all up as Pierre Trudeau was the first “globalist” Prime Minister.
Russia seems intent on not following examples like that, as we can see the disaster it leaves in its wake. Canada unloaded its manufacturing, the US decided that was such a wonderful idea they rushed to catch up, and look at where we are today. Connecting that to the article’s title, the prospects for an end to the war (whether official or not) are actually quite good, as only one side, Russia, has the capability to sustain the effort. Even if the US and NATO decided to go all-in for a conventional war, it would take them a decade, and a lot of debt and/or printed money they can’t afford, to get ready to fight. By then, it’s more than over.
If they go nuke, it’s over faster with a Russian win. So prospects for an end are great. Timing uncertain, winner, Russia. Meanwhile we’ll use useless economic measures that show us to be better as we fall off the economic cliff trying to figure out how to eat printed money. Oh, but it’ll be digital, not printed, so we can save the trees, so we’ll be eating the “cloud.”
“The poster child for stupidity is Canada, a country that up until Trudeau senior was self-sufficient, made everything it needed, protected its manufacturing capability, but decided to give it all up”
This can be said for Australia too. Everything was produced in country, from clothes to cars. The globalists paid the treasonous prostiticians and off shored most industry.
If the WB or IMF say your economy is booming, round up the oligarchs!
Which is why EAEU economist Glazyev’s analysis is much more reliable.
There is a serious problem with the RCB, very like the Fed or BofE.
The RCB as not weaned itself from IMF programming.
Simplicius The Thinker wrote a good comparison between the US Fed and the Russian Central Bank highlighting the major differences between the two.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/russias-cbdc-exploring-the-truth
The article is free to read if anybody’s interested.
Yes, and got a barrage of questions why he ignored Glazyev.
The analysis is purely monetaristic, very IMF programmed, which is what Glazyev criticizes.
Simplicius now mentions Glazyev : https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/ukraine-commits-last-remaining-elite
but again misses the point : https://t.me/s/glazieview
There a long list of asset seizures since Iran to Russia’s $300 billion stolen, on Aug 17. Glazyev repeatedly warned of the asset seizure danger well beforehand. Now this :
“But it is even more unfortunate that once in such a situation, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not react decisively and harshly. It does not respond, despite instructions and even Presidential Decrees.
The obvious step would be to stop paying the state’s debts. But no – at the report of the Central Bank in the State Duma, Nabiullina, as if nothing had happened, reported on the repayment of loans for $80 billion, including to countries that stole money from us.
Shares of Russian companies owned by foreigners were not arrested. The assets of foreign companies were not arrested.”
This is the point – “A blockhead in preference always walks the same way. The monetary authorities have turned into a simple machine with a program laid down by Washington financial organizations”.
It is incredible for RCB to pay $80 billion debts instead of saying that seized $300 billion is already payment. But Western Central Banks are EXACTLY the same as the RCB, running on an automatic IMF program.
This will be a central BRICS issue.
It is safe to say that from the viewpoint of most Triune God-fearing, patriotic Americans (no doubt a dying breed), The New York Times is thought to be on the same level as the Lying Traitors at CNN — today’s poisonous propaganda arm of the Marxist “Democrat” Party. The New York Times is a liberal rag whose editors and writers all suffer from the soul-damning insanity and leprosy of Liberalism. (It would probably be impossible for a writer or reporter to work there otherwise.)
The biggest flaw in The New York Times article is that it looks at Russia strictly through an economic lens. But countries need to be measured by other parameters, too. For example, I doubt that Russian parents need to worry about their children being indoctrinated into accepting homosexual agendas when they send their children off to school, which is now the case in America; I doubt that Russian parents have to worry (too much) about their children being killed by fentanyl overdoses (over 36,000 young American lives snuffed out in 2019); I doubt that Russian mothers have to worry about their daughters being raped by criminal illegal alien barbarians; I doubt that retail store owners in Russian cities need be anxious about gangs of depraved degenerate thugs conducting “smash and grab” raids in their establishments, which the Bible teaches is but one way of eventually killing a man. (Take away a man’s ability or means to make a living and in effect you kill him. See Deuteronomy 24:6.) And I would bet the suicide rate among young Russians is but a small fraction of that of young people in the United States. (In part, we can thank the wicked liberal reprobates on America’s so-called U.S. “Supreme” Court for that, for having taken Triune JEHOVAH’s Ten Commandments out of the Christ-hating government schools — each violation of which constitutes a sin against a man’s Creator and Judge, and which, apart from faith in Christ, makes him liable to eternal punishment in Hell.
No. Spiritually speaking, Russia’s population is in far better shape than that of the leper United States, and Vladimir Putin has more integrity and is a wiser and better leader than all the Christ-hating “Democrats” and greedy warmongering “Republicans” put together.
Here is a sermon by Protestant Paster Matt Truhella. It is entitled “Ukraine Situation: An Alternative View”:
https://www.sermonaudio.com/sermon/3182217476498
https://beta.sermonaudio.com/sermons/3182217476498/
I would highly recommend this sermon to all of Larry Johnson’s readers. At the very least, it will provide a Biblical perspective from a Protestant Christian’s point of view.
Grant’s terms to Lee were not significant? What revisionist history to you read to come up with that? He let the whole army go on personal word they would not take up arms again. Most of Congress were apoplectic when they heard them. Ukraine has no ability to surrender unconditionally as their backers will force a change in government before letting them come to any terms, or none at all that you suggest.
Hi Larry,
You are on air almost every week at rt.de
With German (very important) translation:
Ex-CIA official on Selensky’s Crimea reconquest plan:
“More likely they will fly to Venus with their own rocket”.
Expertly good dialog!!!
https://test.rtde.tech/international/131481-liveticker-ukraine-krieg/
Time: 18:48
The USA will face very hard times.
Europe may turn away from the US if the economic and social situation worsens.
The awakening process among people becomes more dynamic!!!
Africa loses the fear opposite the NATO west.
If BRICS make sovereign decisions in August, it will go steeply downhill for the USA as Hegomon.
Bolton should be handed a Taiwan fairy tale book in his old age.😣
The Soviets did send a Venus Probe – it landed and melted after 90min. Up to that many thought Venus was a second Earth.
Now we know why Venus is so hot :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnt9YZyCTAQ&t=1802s
Demystifying the Atmospheric Greenhouse Effect: Toward a New Physical Paradigm in Climate Science
Pressure.
It is recognized by many people that Putin’s SMO ended the COVID pandemic. Not a small feat.
It may well happen– a risky personal prediction– that what will end the SMO is the martyrdom of Gonzalo Lira. Freshly rearrested at the border with Hungary,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ViBSHC5PEOc
he will unleash a tsunami of protests (unfavorable to Ukraine, obviously) that will give NATO an off ramp.
The US will make it clear that the counter offensive failed because Zelensky did not follow the US advice and corruption was rampant in Ukraine.
Stoltenberg will make Russia a fair and balanced offer:
— Russia gets to keep all the territories currently under its control, plus Odessa and a corridor to Transnistria.
— West Ukraine to be demilitarized and neutral, but with an observer status in NATO.
— The US will dismantle its bases in Poland and Romania in exchange for Russia pledging to never set up bases in Cuba and Mexico.
The US will shift its focus to other parts of the globe that need its support of democracy, like Niger, Syria and Taiwan.
—
No flattery for the NATO arms corporations and their tripple rating:
Spoils of war from Ukraine: Western weapons on display at army fair.
A part of the “Army 2023” trade fair for military equipment that is attracting great interest is an exhibition of weapons and military equipment captured during the special military operation in Ukraine. Special attention is attracted by the “trophies” of Western manufacture, such as the Swedish CV90-40 infantry fighting vehicle or the French AMX-10 RC armored reconnaissance vehicle.
https://test.rtde.tech/kurzclips/video/178052-kriegsbeute-aus-ukraine-westliche-waffen/
I think there will be a lot more to come here soon.
A big own goal of the US-NATO.
In addition, Russia will regain a large weapons market.
Bolton should visit the entire exhibition if his mind can take it.
Great program. The reason why there is NO accountability is because many of our ‘elected’ representatives are arrogant and believe that working people are little more than an ATM, providing virtually endless amounts of money for Wall St bank bailouts (circa $50 trillion since 2009) and the Pentagon. American taxpayers have spent > $21 trillion on post-911 militarization. The result- strategic debacles in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Ukraine. Not only have these wars been humanitarian disasters, they are increasingly undermining out economic and national security.
Notes
1. 20 Years of War: A Costs of War Research Series; https://www.bu.edu/pardee/research/20-years-of-war-a-costs-of-war-research-series/
2. US post-9/11 wars caused 4.5 million deaths, displaced 38-60 million people, study shows- Wars the US waged in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Pakistan following September 11, 2001 caused at least 4.5 million deaths and displaced 38 to 60 million people, with 7.6 million children starving today, according to studies by Brown University. By Ben Norton May 18, 2023; https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/05/18/us-911-wars-million-deaths-displace/
Like some who complain here, I just read at Pepe´s TG channel an article by one Katyusha website complaining about the coming surge in prices of shoes and school material along with electronic devices….
Well, you are at war, mates, the fact that you could continue, until now, living the normal life and watching the luminous water sources in central Moscow does not mean that in a country at war already for a year and a half that can continue forever….
Welcome to war economy….
I myself am trying to not buy any shoes or clothes at all this year ( especially since my home is full of them..unnecessarily,,,,) waiting for the necessary austerity adjustements here in Europe…
Shoes, if bought of good material, can endure almost a decade or so, if cared properly…and you have more than pair, which is currently the case for almost everybody in Europe, including most Russians…
Related to school material, you can use older children´s books and uniforms as many of us did in Europe through generations….
That is not to say that the article´s author could not have some right points with regard Russian oligarchs and even Nabiullina….
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/08/16/zelensky-ukraines-notorious-neo-nazi/
Zelensky holds court with Ukraine’s most notorious neo-Nazi – Alexander Rubinstein·August 16, 2023
Biletsky^, Azov founder, is back.
“Western media has dismissed evidence of neo-Nazi influence in Ukraine by citing President Zelensky’s Jewish heritage. But new footage published by Zelensky shows the leader openly collaborating with a fascist ideologue who once pledged to “lead the white races of the world in a final crusade…against Semite-led Untermenschen.”
Just imagine – MI6 has prepared a Ukraine mercenary group for the Sahel – these guys will turn up there.
I have to say some commentators are proto-Biletsky!!!!
But, Biletsky in that video, who seems to be promotional on that he is in the fight in Ukraine, while he is not, shows so fat as Zelensly and the other representative of his government ( I forgot the name of his dude…)…
How in the Earth could a person fighting in the front line be so out of form?
Also, why is everybody so tense, including the rest of real soldiers?
Because Biletsky just appeared over there to perform such role showing in the way how well he has lived through the whole SMO, and they can not hide their indignation….and dissapointment….
They look like a presure cooker about to burst….
Biletsky left for Poland, or wherever, in the first seconds of the Russians SMO, and has not returned until now to play this theater….
What the US has completely failed to grasp here is that they and the EU and CA and whoever else continues to paper-over that which drives Ukraine’s commitment to this war, the most purist form of neo-nazi ideology at its core, exemplified by Biletsky and so many others. They continue pretending that this is some sort of ‘liberal democracy’ project in the making but Russia well understands its true nature. Russians understood it from the first moments of Maidan, as did many Ukrainians, not to mention a good many westerners, that have since been marginalized, purged and worse still.
It took Russia 8 long years to arrive at its final judgement. To them, the nazi core of Ukraine MUST be gutted. Make no mistake, Russia has called them out in no uncertain terms. This is a fight to the finish.
Ukraine’s western ‘enablers’ would be well advised to sit this one out.
In Sweden, there are problem with the burning of the Al-Quran, then she must creep in the dust for Erdogan, and now the government are scared of
attempts from Al-Quaida or some lonely muslim, with bad temper. It’s all self-inflicted. Even Britain warning us… But think if a Al-Quaida or Isis cell
planning an attempt, then the government must go, and they are very scared, such evil things people will blame on the government. Oh no, we are so tiny and innocent, don’t touch us.
But the Swedish government hadn’t no problem when the people were burned in Odessa, or a puppet of Putin, this spring. Why ? Turkey has a check , a hold on Sweden, against the temple, with the Nato-membership process. And Sweden promised to be a promotor for a Turkish EU-entrance.
But the Russia have no hold on Sweden, and Sweden has declared all-out war against Russia, she follows USA as a little obeying dog, from war to war, from Libya, to Syria, to Ukraine, killing unknown people in foreign countries, to buy support from USA and Britain, that’s a gangster moral,
and a warcrime, to use the defense like that.
So this polarized positions of Sweden, creeping and fighting, and scared in the same time is a psychiatric diagnos, a splitted nation with bad psychia-tric health, and the warfare against Russia, should be a reason for fear, but in fact Sweden has no nightmares with the Russian threat, not a minute, and Russia had no hold on Sweden, what will that be, Russia is Sweden’s favorite enemy, poking the bear and killing Russians, Swedes are fine with that. Quranpaper must not burn, but Russians. They have no humane moral, just instrumental mindset, what’s in it for me, Sweden, and a day by day strategy. Russia is the last nation Sweden fears, in fact, that’s why, and later in the Nato, further escalation and Russia must in a way put a check on
Sweden, that´s necessary.
But imagine if Russia turned against Sweden, the hit and run behavior
should soon cease. Sweden is now with Turkey, as before in history, “Europe´s sick man”, from really dangerous domestic and foreign overstretch, one can’t understand this nation, and this can’t go on for a long time.
The Ukrainian intelligence chief, Budanov said now that: “Their first mistake” was to de-humanize the Russians, called them “orcs”, “colorados”
“Moskals”, and normal people hearing that understand that’s from an immature fascistic mindset, and that’s it, you can´t win a war with such
shit, and I think Swedes accepted this language.Disgusting.
Today a Liberal in the parliament, Hamilton, says, that they could accept
bullshit and hate speech from the former Naziparty, (supporting the gov-ernment 20% of voters) about the Muslims, and Al-Quran, from a man named Jomshof, – but the former added: But If it deals with the Jews, thats another, thing, that will not be accepted”! , but another parliamentarian asked: But why against the Muslims ? What have they done ? So the liberals hypocrisy rolling on, more and more revealing for each day.
Early in the summer, the female CiC for the paramilitary Homeguard, declared that she was fitted with a special “Finnish war-gene”, and that
it was better that Sweden assisted in killing Russians in the Donbass, than
on the Gotland island in the Baltic Sea, from where she resided. We will see
that Finnish gene, must be a neanderthal, barbaric remain what survived.
It sounded de-humanizing without reason, but when the government let the Russophobia loose, many poor weak souls take the opportunity, to hate, like in NaziGermany, 1933. Then no one heard about her, and not a word from the Superior Command (ÖB) Bydén, since the beginning of July, they are very silent and stealthy people these days. But there must be a
heavy traffic to Sweden from Polish harbors, with Russian trophy gears, like
some trips with m/s Estonia 1994, and agentnetworks building in Ukraine.
But as a matter of fact, these weeks, 1.000s of people are locked up on Gotland, the unsinkable carrier, because the main ferry got machinery trouble, so thats why Sweden decimates the Russians in the Black Sea area, its a kind of necessary Swedish strategy, from the military staff clowns. Following the US, from war to war, but a national psychiatric case -without a cause.
“The Ukrainian intelligence chief, Budanov said now that: “Their first mistake” was to de-humanize the Russians, called them “orcs”, “colorados”
“Moskals”,”
That was stated by Arestovich, if I am not wrong, in an interview with an old Ukrainian woman in a TV show…
I can not, by any stretch of imagination, imagine Budanov making such a reflection….on considering he/them could do anything wrong…that creature is incapable of such a behavior…..
I can not imagine Budanov backpedaling, ever, but doubling down….like his masters in the CIA and MI6…..of the same quality….
I saw the interview on tv, think that was Budanov, maybe wrong, a rather young man, didn’t look mean, I was surprised, but anyway a credible message, these days,
hate and insults don’t work, or sending missiles against
Moscow, bad strategy.
That was Arestovich with Julia Latynina, repeated by Kiev spokes-beast
https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
declaring Russians are not human.
From New Wayland:
https://new-wayland.com/blog/mmt-verify-is-there-pressure-on-the-russian-economy/
MMT Verify: is there pressure on the Russian Economy?
14 Aug 2023 15:45 +0100 · 2 min · NeilW
“With barely suppressed glee, the BBC reports upon the rouble/US dollar exchange rate:
The Russian rouble has fallen to its lowest value for 16 months, falling past 100 per US dollar.
The decline comes as pressure grows on the Russian economy, with imports rising faster than exports and military spending growing for the Ukraine war.”
According to the International Energy Agency, Russian export revenues were $15.3 billion in July, $4.1 bn lower than in July 2022.
All of which sounds very ominous until you remember a few facts
1. The Russian Economy uses roubles, not US dollars
2. The Russian Government spends and taxes in roubles, not US dollars.
3. They don’t use the rouble anywhere else.
4. Russians don’t tend to buy much in US dollars because of sanctions.
At the end of July 2022, the rouble exchange rate was 61.8. Now in August 2023, it is over 100.
When reported in the correct currency, Russian export revenue in July 2022 was ₽1,199 billion, whereas the export revenue from July 2023 is now worth at least ₽1,530 billion.
That’s an increase of ₽330 bn.
Only Western reporters can answer how an increase in revenue is a ‘decline’ or a ‘weakening’, especially when export volumes are steady.
Seriously, do the maths.”
If the west can keep supplying drones to Ukraine they could be in use for a very long time(guerrilla war). The US had significant military advantages over North Vietnam but the US support was worn down. The war dead was reported weekly by US media to hurt support for the war. I don’t
envy Ukraine or Russia. Almost 50% of Americans support funding Ukraine.
The longer this goes on the greater
the chance it gets bigger and wider. Can Democrats afford an embarrassment in Ukraine? Maybe they blame a jailed Trump-100% a big % of US voters would buy it.
IS THE GOVERNMENT OF HAWAII LYING ABOUT THE MISSING AND DEAD ON MAUI?
I received information tonight from a highly reliable source who is on Maui and is involved with the emergency response. The source is a person of high integrity and shared this information with a mutual friend, who passed it on to me. The source says the situation on Maui is far worse than what is being reported.
Our mutual friend checked on the source last week and the source said the Maui government is covering up the deaths.
The source had just returned from a big meeting on Oahu convened to coordinate the response to the disaster. The source said that there are 5000 people missing and that FEMA estimates at least 1-2000 dead on Maui, especially Lahaina. It was essentially burned to the ground and the residents were told to shelter in place. Many are probably dead.
It is no surprise that Hawaiian authorities upped the death toll today to 106. That number will continue to rise.
The source said that Maui authorities will not declare human remains as another countable death unless the body is complete. Really? When you have a corpse killed by being incinerated you will be lucky to find teeth. All human remains are to remain in place until a team of 6-7 forensics guys can determine no foul play. That’s gonna take a couple weeks, so the bodies will either rot, or be stripped by maggots/vermin.
This is a catastrophe beyond imagination and the response of the State and Federal governments has been appalling. Instead of transparency it looks like the outside world is being fed disinformation in order to down play the scope and scale of the disaster.
Since I can’t comment on the original story, I’ll do it here
If true, this is beyond appalling–about the only tool a government has in during a crisis is the ability to get people to listen; and this comes from credibility.
If the authorities destroy their credibility now, they are going to be absolutely FVCKED the next time around, and the time after that, and the time after that. This would be one of the stupidest things they could ever do for very, very limited short term gain.
“No Comment”🤡😡
Why Is There Such A Frenzy To Buy Up The Properties That Were Just Burned Down During The Fires In Hawaii?https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/why-there-such-frenzy-buy-properties-were-just-burned-down-during-fires-hawaii
There from Newsweek :
President Joe Biden is facing renewed criticism for his response to the devastating wildfires on the Hawaiian island of Maui after offering victims $700 per household in emergency aid.
Political opponents and commentators described the sum as “insulting” and compared it with the more than $113 billion-worth of aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine as it defends itself against an ongoing Russian invasion.
Ukraine is the 51st US State.
Yesterday I watched my favorite Russian on YouTube, a charming and beautiful young woman from Siberia who has a channel called “Svetlana from Russia,” as she wandered down the aisles in a middle-class Russian supermarket in Moscow (which she describes as one of her least favorite cities). She was describing the nearly 50% plunge in the ruble in the last year, which has accelerated lately, but she noticed that prices have not risen noticeably on the items she sees in the supermarket (yet), although she said it may be because they are still selling from existing stocks, before the cost increases on imports hit, and she promised to do another informal survey and post the video in about a month. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XN8H6YGoAEg&t=145s
However, in watching one of her videos from last summer, where she went through a shopping mall, pointing out all the expensive foreign brand shops in the mall that were closed, she also pointed out one food item after another that was already being produced by Russian companies to replace popular Western brands that could no longer be imported. In most cases, the packaging was even designed to look very similar to the items they were replacing. According to her, most of the replacement food items, cosmetics, and other replacement items she had personally tried were quite good copies, indicating that the Russian economy was reacting rapidly to fill gaps, and that Russians seem quite capable of doing so. It suggest that the sanctions are stimulating a lot of Russian entrepreneurs to begin filling the import gaps, or else finding similar items from other countries that can be imported.
She’s obviously quite bright, and while very guarded as regards her political leanings, my sense from watching a number of her videos is that she is quite patriotic, but less than thrilled about the war with Ukraine. She never mentions Putin, one way or the other.
Its worth pointing out how long Russia has had experience with sanctions. After todays comments on sports by VVP, it worth remembering that the Russians and US were engaged in some ugly Olympic boycotts in the 1980s…Started by the US. And that sports boycotts have persisted along with politicisation of every sporting body that was willing to whore itself out for Team America.
Then more recently recall that when Russia was invited to get involved with Syria in 2015 the first economic hit to come down was the French being forbidden by their US masters from delivering the two helli carriers (Mistral Class) which Russia had bought and were ready for delivery. Then (still 2015) in quick succession were a whole range of sanctions on trade and travel. I recall Turkey getting involved and very soon realising that when Russia stopped sending tourists, that trade is actually a two way street. The Turks quickly found that they had a market for their produce in Russia.
So Russia has had 8 years to see whats coming in respect of sanctions and bans. Its no surprise that they have not been jolted by the 2022 ‘sanctions from hell’.
For a guided tour of central Asia, via Bukhara of legend and culture,
From Bukhara to BRICS, Searching for Light in the Darkness of Insanity . Pepe Escobar August 16, 2023
On the SCO, Russia, China, India, Iran and Pakistan sit at the same table,
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/08/16/from-bukhara-to-brics-searching-for-light-in-darkness-of-insanity/
Lukashenko coined the Global Globe, the BRICS+ plus SCO.
De-dollarization cautiously, “For the moment notorious R5 (renminbi, ruble, real, rupee and rand).”
The distracting war is just that.
Larry –
https://rumble.com/v38gnbl-according-to-this-man-maui-police-stopped-cars-from-leaving-lahaina-maui.html
Ok, but now the penny has drop-ped, the Russian hit the Swedish multinational company, SKF (Svenska kullagerfabriken) in Ukra-ine, and their ballbearings are as during ww2, high strategic goods, then used in aircrafts, tanks, and a lot of them.
During the war, Sweden delivered
to both camps, and had a affili-ation in Schweinfurt, what then
was bombed of USAF, October 1943, but with terrible losses in aircrafts and crews, about 60 B-17, planes of 300 was downed by Luft-waffe, makes about 600 airmen, and US suspected high treason, and accused the banker Jakob Wallenberg, the owner, for it. Unknown what happened, but US is said to be behind, Jakob’s removal as CEO, 1946, for the Enskilda banken. (Raoul Wallen-berg, from the same family, but as a second younger cousin.)
So the penny dropped, maybe when the Russians dropped a bomb on the SKF facilities. When playing with fire… but we will never know the facts, maybe there is more Swedish business in Ukra-ine… and we think the owners in Sweden, can keep from laughing.
Glazyev is correct – there is a huge Russian Central Bank policy problem : RT
Russia won’t tighten capital controls for now – Vedomosti
Exporters have reportedly agreed to boost sales of their foreign currency revenues
https://swentr.site/business/581400-russia-capital-controls-exporters/
Using IMF monetary shock therapy is destructive to the real economy.
“The management of the Bank of Russia, once again applying their tried-and-true two-part method—a tremendous devaluation of the ruble and a sharp increase in interest rates, is plunging the economy into a state of clinical death. For the sake of superprofits for currency speculators, it is halting the recovery that had barely begun.”
High general terror alarm in Sweden, tonight, from the government and the secret police, take care if in big crowds, from islamistic cells. But this threat
to Sweden, was caused of a member in the parliament, Jomshof, chairman in the committee of justice, calling Muhammed this and that, a delicate problem, but from inside their own people, the right extreme, the Sverige democrat´s party is a main part of the government’s foundations with their 20% of the voters. Not so fun, and the government is really scared, stressed.
We thought that Russia was the big threat, in Donbass, where Sweden delivered 17 billions of pure and lethal warfare arms, ATGs,tanks, air defense, and not the least signal intelligence, but the bear didn’t react,
but yesterday, the SKF company (ballbearings) in Lutsk, was hit of a Russian missile, and shut down, and maybe this was a knocking on the roof, as US used to do in Afghanistan. Russia is the minor problem, but is quite self-inflicted.
So Sweden managed to insult the Muslims in Sweden and stoking the war in Ukraine, in the same time, congratulations, how is the mood in the big business sector, if more Swedish companies roofs take hits in Ukraine. This government can´t protect the population, and playing over its hand, and punching over its weight, abroad.
Swedes had it comming. If I could see it, they could have too. Even leaving that aside, if you suddenly find yourself in a shithole, you stop whatever you are doing, and try to get out. It seems to me that Sweeden is more into smearing and soaking, and pretending it’s a mud bath spa.
Here’s an old joke. In 1990’s, a refugee from former Yugoslavia ended up in Sweeden. After he settled there, a relative asked him what it’s like. He said, they are decades behind Yugoslavia. What do you mean by that, relative asked. They are still living good,
he answered.